Fantasy Baseball Today - Breakouts! Plus an Ohtani Fight and Your Emails (03/05 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 5, 2020

We bring on a surprise guest to debate Shohei Ohtani's value in a daily lineups league. Could Ohtani be one of the most valuable players in that format? And then we'll get into the breakouts with our personal favorites for 2020 (11:15). Make sure you are drafting J.D. Davis and Keston Hiura ... News and notes (21:00). When should you draft Chris Sale now? Sale or James Paxton? ... Breakouts for basically the rest of the show. Scott and Chris name some more of their favorites (29:15) including Avisail Garcia and Yoan Moncada. Then we use the Breakoutometer (44:00) for several more hitters and finally focus on some SPs (48:00). Can Jack Flaherty get even better? Can Eduardo Rodriguez become a stud? ... Your emails at [e-mail] Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite Join our March Madness Bracket Challenge at http://2020podcast.mayhem.cbssports.com/e/d7feed30238637cc2387331ab3061dc1fb5219555f0e9a8b?ttag=BPM20_cpy_invite_new Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Breakouts. That's what we're talking about today.

We'll get the breakout o-meter on there. We will talk about auctions. Breakouts are the most important players in fantasy baseball, and auctions are the coolest way to draft. Although I'm not going to lie. I kind of feel like we should split up tomorrow's auction into two days because it's going to take four and a half hours, but, you know, whatever I can deal with it.

Stop whining. Oh, he's back. Heath is here. I got to get called out for winding when Heath is here. Hey, Heath, what's up? What's going on? Are you doing the auction tomorrow? I am going to be in the auction tomorrow.

Five hours of glory. One day or two days. What do you think? I think it should be two days for sure I would certainly prefer that it would make like doing my job easier sure yeah Scott what do you think two days it ends up being the same amount of time

I don't know I don't know I get it blocking out five hours in one day that's real tough just get it just get it done just get it over with I don't know that makes it that makes it sound like it's a it's a painful thing to do though it's not It's a joy. Look forward to these days.

You have a job where you get to do a five-hour auction, fantasy baseball auction at it. This is a good thing. That's a really good point. All right, so here's what we're doing today. We're talking about our favorite breakouts. We're actually, instead of, like, we save sleepers to the end of yesterday's show, we're just going to do the breakouts in the first half.

We're going to read some emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, and we will give you auction tips, and we're going to have team name Tuesday on a Thursday. Like Glenn Perkins, like Ann Perkins from Parks and Rec. That's a very good one. But Heath is on for a reason. We're going to have a Shohay Otani fight, and it's going to be about five minutes, and then Heath's going to leave.

But here's what inspired it. We had an email about Otani from Tom from New York City, and he said, Dear, insert four humorous related names here. How about Anne? Wait, I can't think of four names from Parks and Rec. And Chris, Tom. And Leslie.

Leslie, sure. What is Shohei Otani's value in a daily moves league? I'm having trouble figuring out where to draft him based off rankings. Heath is very, Heath said if he's dual eligible in its daily lineups, I wouldn't let him get past the third round, and I'd be tempted in the second round. So Heath, go ahead.

We actually did one of these drafts as a mock, and I believe I took him in the second round. around and was criticized openly in the draft room. And the funny part of this is Chris and I have been going back to be an email with this listener. Thank you, Tom. And I don't think

either of Chris or I read the email correctly the first time. I missed the fact that it was a categories league and Chris missed the fact possibly that it was a daily moves league because his first response was, Otani might not be usable the first two months. Well, it's a 17 team

league with daily lineup moves. So, Shoio Otani is very valuable in that format. Very. Yes. Yes. If you, like, how valuable. This is worth saying, because I don't think a lot of people know this yet. He is going to have to make rehab starts, but there has been an adjustment to the rules

that will allow him to make a rehab start and start for the Angels the very next day as a hitter. He does not have to go back and forth between the minor leagues. They have two locations. They've talked about this. There's an article on CBSSports.com. The Angels have talked about how they can send him to Salt Lake City or one of their other affiliates. He can pitch that night. He can hit the next night for the Angels.

So I don't believe during his rehab he's going to have to miss any time as a hitter. I would expect he's going to hit four or five days a week for the first month and a half of the season. But the bigger thing was, and the part I missed, I thought it was a points league. But the daily lineup, Points League, you look at what Shohei Otani did as a pitcher before he got injured, and he averaged right around 16 fantasy points per game. You look at what he's done as a hitter in his career. He's averaged about 2.7 fantasy points per game. If he starts three to four days as a hitter and one time as a pitcher per week, that math comes out to about 25 and a half fantasy points per game. And there's plenty of people room there.

because no hitter came anywhere close to 25 and a half fantasy points per week in 2019. Alex Bregman scored the most fantasy points, and I believe he was right around 22 or 23. So my argument was he is a, I guess, bench player, but someone you're starting four days a week for the first month and a half of the season, and he has a potential from the middle of May to be arguably the most valuable player in your league. it's hard to argue against that. If he plays the way he's capable of...

Well, except 2.7 points per game, isn't that great? Well, part of the reason he's at 2.7 points per game. Well, exactly, Scott. First off, you're right. He gives you 2.7 points per game, which isn't that great. And even with that, he's going to score more fantasy points per week than anyone else. But you're rob... When you start him as a hitter, you're robbing a spot from another hitter to do that.

It's a team league. And part of the reason he's out of that... seven points per game as a hitter is because about 20% of his games in his career have come off the bench. Sure. He's a fine hitter, but he would just be taking the spot of another fine hitter. Well, isn't that selling him short? I mean, he's been a much better than fine hitter in his career. Shohei Otani we're talking about here. Let's get away from the 17 team league thing and just talk about in general, So, Shohei Otani's value in a daily league where you can use him as a pitcher or a hitter, it is, I mean, I think Heath makes a pretty good point.

When he is pitching and hitting, he has the potential, whether it's points or not, to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy if he hits the way that he has hit and also pitches the way that he has pitched. His value is mostly in allowing you to hold an extra player. That's more what it is. It's not so much that the production is going to be, is going to stand out by that much, especially if you're giving up your second round pick for him. I don't think it adds up there. Yeah.

And to be clear, the word potential is carrying a lot of weight here. You're just like what he has been. Right, right, right. But he's coming back from Tommy John Surgeon. And we actually haven't seen him pitch in a game since 2017, 2018. And really since like June of 2018. I think he made one appearance for like two innings after that. So we're asking him to come back after missing nearly two years,

come back and be an effective starter. Like there's a pretty good chance that he comes back in mid-May and is going four innings per start for his first month. There's a chance that he just isn't that good. Now, he could be a 3-8 ERA guy, and that would be fine for most pitchers. but when you're talking about someone whose ceiling is probably 120 innings, I just, like, I think his absolute ceiling is probably something like a combination of Frankie Montas's 2019 and Ryan Bronze 2019. Now, Ryan Bronze 2019, you might think, well, that's not that good.

He's going like 270th right now. He had 24 homers, stole 11 bases, hit 285. Counting stats weren't great because he didn't play every day. Well, guess what? Shohei Otani's not going to play every day. if you could guarantee me Frankie Montas from June on and Ryan Braun for the whole season

that would be a very valuable player although probably still more like a top 30 or 40 player than a second or third round pick I think he would be a top well first off this guy's question like his 30th overall right right but we're trying to 30th overall right but we're answering it for the whole for the whole class um

I think it would be a top 30 player for the season if he did that pitching from June on. I would agree with that. I think from the point he became a pitcher and was doing what Frankie Montas plus Ryan Braun is a top five player in terms of value. All right. So let's do this. Let's end this. I want to get the breakout. So hold on, Scott.

So just tell me, finish this conversation. It's daily league. You can play them as either hitter or a pitcher, 12 team league. when do you draft Shohei Otani, Scott, Chris Heath. No earlier than like round six, given all the timetable questions. Chris? Yeah, I think round six would be the earliest. Heath?

Well, team I'll say four in categories. All right. You're a liar. Because you've drafted him in the second round. That was a point. That was the categories, wasn't it? Yeah. Yes, it was.

It was a little early. Well, part of that is I didn't realize. that everyone else was so down on the ability for him to come back from Tommy John's surgery. I forgot how far back we've gone in the scientific development in medicine that it's like career ending now. There's a good

chance that he's just going to suck as a pitcher now. Well, we're investing a sixth round pick in him. I don't know. I feel like this is a difficult thread to follow. And it's also, I will also point out, he didn't run when he pitched in 2018. Really at all. Most of his stolen

basis came after he got hurt. So in that case, Ryan Braun may not be the best case scenario. It might be like Jock Peterson with a better batting average, which is good, but... What does that even mean? Jack Peterson with a better batting average. Well, I think he's been like a really, really good hitter for two years. So I feel like you guys are selling him a little bit short there. All right, we have our answer, and we got a Heath Cummings cameo.

And I think we're going to talk breakout. now, Heath. Thank you for hopping on. Joey Otani is my breakup. Good call. But, by the way, Adam, you never sent us notes today. Oh, I'll do that. Flying blind. As soon as I get rid of Heath, I'll send you the notes.

All right, that's Heath coming. I got nothing, no idea what I'm doing. We'll take a pause. We'll take a pause on the podcast, but actually for the listeners, it won't be a pause at all. So let's talk about breakouts here. Who's your favorite breakout for 2020, Scott White? J.D. Davis, of course, player I love. And it looks like he's coming back from that shoulder issue,

and he suffered early in spring training just fine. He hit in the cage. He said there's no pain, no shortage of range of motion. So health-wise, he looks like he's fine, and so I can be enthusiastic about him all over again. A guy who had about a 300 batting average of 900 OPS in a semi-regular role. He got a significant number of bats, wasn't quite playing every day.

But then you look at the expected stats, based on his quality of contact, they were even higher than the numbers he actually put up. So it's not like he had good luck or anything. He was genuinely that good of a hitter last year. And I think there's the potential for him to play even more this year. It's still a question mark. The playing time is still a thing. He's bad defensively at both third base and in left field.

And you know, and Sespitus, is, uh, going to be part of the mix somehow. But J.D. Davis, if he hits right away, he may find himself playing in left field every day. And it could be a huge deal for you in the round 12-13 range. Even later than that, he's going 190th overall. J.D. Davis, who would you rather take a flyer on Scott, J.D. Davis or Scott Kingery?

I think J.D. Davis, I certainly have trust in, I think there's a better chance he's like a high-end stud, J.D. Davis. Scott Kingery, I feel like, is more of a format-specific pick because he has the variety of categories you're looking for in a Roto League. So I like him too, but more for just specifically that format and more because it's getting late and I still need steals. Chris, who's your favorite breakout for 2020? Well, it might have to be Miguel Cabrera.

He homered off future bust Garrett Cole twice today. I just want everyone to know that. Yikes. But my real answer, I broke my workouts into little different tiers. And the first one was the guys were going to make the jump from star to superstar. My number one pick there was Kestin Hira. He hit an absolute bomb yesterday. And I think something that's gone unremarked upon about him, at least it hasn't gone remarked upon enough, let's say, is

he hits the ball incredibly hard. He's not a big guy. He wasn't projected to be much of a power hitter coming up as a prospect. But he was in the 90th percentile on average XIV velocity and 97th percentile and hard hit rate last year. When you look at the quality of the contact, yeah, he's not going to sustain the near 400 batting average on balls in play or 402, which is what it was last year. But he could hit 275.

with 35 homers and 15 steals. That's the upside. I think he may have undersold how he was projected for power as a minor league or two. Some evaluators I know thought he was the best hitter of his draft class and didn't have huge power production, didn't have huge home run production in the minors, but it was part of the scouting report

that he would probably develop that. So here is going 56th overall. J.T. Realmuto is the pick before. for him. Lucas G. Alito is the pick after Kestanhira. So yeah, both play a thin position. Who do you think is more valuable? J.T. Reaumoto or Kestanhira? Kestanhira tends to go earlier, at least

in categories leagues, because of his potential to help in steals. If you're asking who I think is more likely to finish higher at his position, it's Real Muto. But Hira has the potential to be the top second. a basement. That's not a

far-fetched scenario. I was 100% not asking you who has the potential to finish higher at the position. I didn't really understand what you were asking me. Who's a more valuable player, Kestan here, J.T. Ramuto. It's difficult to answer. It's fine. They go back to back.

I guess that's why it's difficult to answer. Scott, you have rankings. Come on. I am sure I'm not even sure how I rank them, to be honest. to pull it up. I think maybe I'd go Hira and Roto and Reamuto in points. But I think it's interesting that Hira is going ahead of another possible breakout, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And they have very similar ADPs. It will depend on the draft. But yeah, I guess if they're

both on the board and you don't have a second basement or a third basement at that point, who are you taking, Chris? Hira or Vlad? Oh, Hira. Yeah. That's an easier call for me. Here is shown it in the majors. And he could give these deals. Okay. He is five spots ahead of Real Muto in my Roto rankings. I'm probably with you, Adam, and that I prefer Real Muto in a points league

because I think it's a clear advantage in a type of format where you have to be more conscious of what advantages you're getting at each position since there's so few of them. And I guess I don't really have a favorite breakout. I'm hoping to use today's show to find my favorite breakout. Kestin'Hiro was going to be one of my suggestions. Just a guy that you want to see if you can get some shares of, but I guess I'll go with Nick Castiano's, and I know Chris is going to be

excited about that one, too. He's 28. That's a little bit late for a breakout, but it's the ballpark shift. The only thing with Castiano is like, you look at last year, he was really bad in Camerica, and then he got traded to the Cubs, and he had a thousand OPS in 51 games with the Cubs, and he had 16 homers. But you look at 2016 to 2016. And his home OPS and rode up, like, they was typically better. 2017 and 2018, he was better at home than he was on the road. He's a big time doubles hitter. And I'm just hoping those doubles translate to home runs.

It's not just, it's not just home road, though. It's like you're playing half your games at Great American Ballpark. It's a huge deal. Well, and it's worth noting most hit better at home than on the road. Yeah, but most, but in America, I mean, but his road OPS in 2016 to 18 was 840, 748, and 818. So when you looked at Christian Yelich, when you looked at J.T. Raamuto, and you're projecting a breakout because he was going from Miami to Philadelphia,

the proof was that he had like an 890 OPS on the road in his previous seasons. Castiano does not have that split to go to. But he did in 2019, not before that. What I would also say is he was in the 90th percentile or better in statutes. cast expected slugging percentage for four straight years. And one of the things about Castellanos is, you know, you look at the dimensions for Comerica Park. You look at the park factors in particular. It doesn't actually rate out as that bad of a park for home runs from right-handed batters. But part of the problem is a lot of those park factors are kind of just looking at left field versus right field.

And it's an easier place to hit for power to left field. Well, Nick Castiano's hits a ton of balls in the air out to center field and right field. His batting ball profile doesn't look that different than J.D. Martinez, actually. I'm not saying he'll be that good, but like a, you know, 85% of J.D. Martinez can be a super, super valuable

player at the 100 pick. My favorite thing about Castellanos is even if you just get a normal Nick Castellanos season, you're probably going to be okay with that at 100 overall. You know, it's going to be like a little disappointing, but not, ah, why did I draft this guy? All right. So anyway,

Moving on, we'll do some more breakouts in a bit. We've got to go through the news and notes. We've got to talk about Chris Sale. Apple Podcast Mailbag will be recorded on Friday and published on Saturday. So you can send us your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Or please ask us a question with a five-star review in Apple Podcast. Yeah, you know what to do. We're already getting a bunch of them, so I appreciate that.

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I'll provide the link in the episode description. I will also tweet it. We have some time. I'll tweet it. You can email me. I'll give you the bracket challenge link. But yeah, basically just play some March Madness with us. And use Sportsline.com for March Madness or anything you want to gamble on.

They got optimal brackets on there. I'm pretty sure. I mean, they usually do. I'm assuming they do this year. And you can get it for $1.00 for the first month with the promo code Vegas. Vegas is the promo code $1 for the first month. And after that, it's only $9.99. Email of the day is from Jeff, a longtime listener or first time emailer.

Had a quick question regarding the CBS rankings. For years now, I've been choosing Roto for my head-to-head categories leagues since my recollection was that head-to-head was specifically for points leagues. Is that still the case? If you're in a Roto League, should you still use, or if you're in a head-to-head categories league, should you still use the Roto rankings?

Yes. Yeah. Yeah, it would, it makes a difference more in the top 300 because that's optimized for like two catcher leagues and five outfielder leagues. And if you're in a head-to-head categories league, probably you're not using five outfielders and two catchers.

So keep that in mind. But when you're just talking about a position by position, context. It's the scoring, how valuable players are in that scoring format is the same. Yep, thank you. You know, I know that's a quick email, but we get that a lot. So points leagues, use the points ranking. Categories leagues use the rhodo rankings. Injuries, news and notes, Chris Sale has a flexor strain in his elbow, does not at the moment need Tommy John surgery. He won't throw for a week. By the way, his contract extension, five years, $145 million, kicks in this year.

When now, Scott, are we drafting Chris Sale? Well, okay. So he could, best case scenario, he's back at some point in May. Sounds like. So that's the best case.

Since they're not ruling out that Tommy John surgery may still be necessary, I'm not drafting him on the best case. I can tell you that much. I haven't looked at exactly how far I'm moving him down. But beyond those 37, the big 37 we've talked about, which I guess he was part of, so now it's a 36.

So I'd put him behind like Zach Gallen and Frankie Montas, that group. Would I take him over somebody like Max Freed? I probably would still do that. So probably just outside of that top, now 36 for me, is where I'm going to slot Chris Sale. but I reserve the right to change my mind when I take a closer look at it. You guys want some data, some cold hard facts?

Sure. I looked up, I wrote about Chris Sale's injury and what it means for his season earlier today, CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. Check it out. And I found a study from 2017

entitled Forearm Flexor Injuries and Major League Baseball players. Epidemiology, performance, and associated injuries. Epidemiology. Epidemiology. Epidemiology.

The epitome of mispronunciation. And so the good news is 80.6% of major league pitchers who suffered a flexor injury did not require Tommy John surgery. The bad news is there were 122 subsequent injuries to the shoulder, elbow, or forearm among the 134 players who suffered the initial injury. I don't think that means there were 100. 222 of the 134 who got hurt within the next year. A lot of them probably got injured twice, but it's not great. The average IL stint for players with this injury was 128.1 days.

That's really bad. That would mean he's out until July? June. Yeah, right? Epidemiology, sure. But the median time on the IL was 14. days. If you remember back to your elementary school math courses, median is the middle. Mean is the average. So there must have been people missing years with this injury.

So that's the thing is that I think the most likely outcome is he doesn't miss that much time. You know, 42 days on the IL, give him some time to get back from to speed. And that's probably beginning of May as like your kind of best case scenario. The worst case scenario is he doesn't pitch this year. So I would say the Denelson-Lemette-Hezus-Lazardo tier, which is about 130th overall, because those guys have very, very significant questions about whether they can stay healthy

and a little bit about whether they'll be able to pitch in the majors. We know Chris Sale can pitch very, very well. Well, that's the thing. At this point, I mean, I think you have to question what Chris Sale is right now. I mean, he's been having in, this is three years in a row where he's got injury issues and didn't pitch very well last year. I mean, he did and he didn't. The numbers weren't good.

I understand the strikeouts were good. I'm just not that confident that he's going to come back and beat Chris Sale. I just don't know how you can. That's fair. I'm not that confident Nelson Lamat and Hazers-Lissardo are going to be. I'm not arguing that. I just broader points. Yeah.

Yeah. Okay. Yeah, so I think we have them going in the same range. I think what would be an interesting discussion is Chris, if you're drafting now, Chris Sale or James Paxton. Because Paxton's timetable looks more solid, but of course it's possible he suffers a setback too. And, you know, we think of him as a worse pitcher than Chris Sale, but the impact being a little lower. Well, that is a big one. I've seen James Paxton tumble to like beyond round 15 in the 15 team league.

So we're talking outside the top 200. That's silly. that seems like good value. Yeah, I don't think Chris Sale is going to fall that far. I think it's fair to say that Sale has a better chance of not pitching this year than Paxton. Right? I mean, sales injuries seems more serious. But, ooh, all right, so what's the answer?

Because I don't want to give it because I feel like I'm going to be a homer. But I just don't. 11th round. No, no, no, what's the answer to sale or Paxton? I'm saying sale, but I think seeing how much Paxton. has fallen, I think there's a chance sale could come at a value here. It's too early to tell.

It's either going to be Chris sale or James Paxton. You're right. You know, I didn't think about that, Chris. Good call. Meanwhile, the Red Sox signed Colin McHugh. McHugh had a bad year, no question, in 2019, but he had a really good year in 2018, and he was solid in 2017, even as a starting pitcher.

Is there a chance Colin McHugh makes the Red Sox rotation? He's not currently throwing while dealing with coming back from an elbow issue. So I'd say you don't want to draft calling the queue. Aaron Judge does not have a timetable. He's hoping for opening day. We don't know.

Jordan Montgomery will be in the Yankees rotation. Again, pretty good 2017. For a rookie, you know, really solid. Late round pick. 380-A. 1.23 whip, 144 strikeouts and 155 in a third. That's pretty good for a rookie. That's Jordan Montgomery.

At Alberto Mondesie hopes to make his return from shoulder surgery next week. Brendan Rogers, Colorado infielder. He's D-Hing today. He also had shoulder surgery last season. I think they both had torn labrums, Mondesee and Brendan Rogers. Scott, should Brendan Rogers be on our radar? Yeah, he should be on your radar. I don't know that he's somebody you need to stash from the start of the season.

But if things go wrong for Ryan McCann, if McMahon, sorry, if things go wrong for Ryan McMahon, Daniel Murphy gets hurt Ian Desmond gets hurt Sam Hilliard doesn't work out Garrett Hampson doesn't work out There's certainly a lot of scenarios By which Rogers could find himself Playing a regular role for the Rockies

And given his prospect pedigree He could take one of those jobs And never look back If I told you that both Garrett Hampson And Brendan Rogers were everyday players For the Rockies Who would you prefer? Hampson.

Okay. Yeah, I mean, he's a little, he's, granted, it was mostly over a two-week stretch in September, but he's shown a little more in the majors. And then if you talk about a five-by-five context, the Steel's impact is more valuable than probably anything Brendan Rogers is going to provide. Okay.

Tyler Beattie, giant starting pitcher, he has a flexor strain and a UCL sprain. So he might need Tommy John. We'll keep an eye on that. Danny San. Really disappointing. I liked him a lot as a sleeper. Danny Santana will be Texas's opening day center fielder.

All right, on to the breakouts. Here we go. Keston here has been mentioned. I said Castiano. Scott said J.D. Davis. And all right, Scott, fire away with some more. Okay, so I don't have as many of these as I had sleepers. And sometimes it's difficult to distinguish between the two.

But I'm going to throw Avi Sal Garcia out. there under the same in the same sort of context as Castellanos. A guy who batted ball the batted ball data looks pretty strong. Not as strong as Castellanos but

enough that in a hitting friendly environment with the way he's improved his launch angle the past couple years and as hard as he hits the ball, you could see how that could turn out pretty well for him. And if you do like a park overlay of his spray chart last year on Miller Park.

It's kind of like Castellanos, the way some of those non-home runs turned into home runs. And I can see him hitting 30 plus this year. If the playing time is regular enough, he's always been a pretty good source of batting average. So if you add that kind of power to it, and he's going to end up being a guy that started in all leagues. There is a little bit of a playing time concern there

because Ryan Braun is, we don't know how consistently he's going to play first base. But it sounds like they're pretty committed to playing Garcia to the point they'll even play him in center field sometimes and put Lorenzo Kane on the bench. Okay. I'm going to call him more of a sleeper, but that's fine. I mean, breakouts have their best seasons, so Scott is projecting Avi Zella Garcia's best season.

I wish he was more of a fly ball hitter because I think Lorenzo Kane kind of showed us that if you hit a bunch of ground balls, Miller Park's not going to do much for you. But he's gotten better at that the last couple years. Okay. Yeah, how about a few more after Avi Garcia? Who else? Yeah, go ahead. A few more. I don't have a name queued up here. How about Max Fried? That's been a go-to of mine. There you go. Yeah. So Max Friede. there are basically two ways that a pitcher can counter all the home runs being hit across the majors these days. And that's by missing bats altogether. We're obviously well aware of the value that has.

And Max Fried is pretty good at it. He was, I think, top 25 in swinging strike rate last year. But the other way is by putting the ball on the ground. And Max Reed was top five in that last year, which I think tends to get overlooked. those two together helped contribute to him having the I think it was the seventh best ex-fip it was ahead of Walker Bueller it was ahead of Jack Filarity it was ahead of a lot of big names so the fact he had a ERA over four you could say he underperformed just based on that he's also been working on his change-up if you look at his lefty righty splits frees obviously is a left-hander righties hit him pretty well at least in the context of what you'd expect from a good pitcher. Changeup is a pitch known for neutralizing opposite-handed bats. If he makes progress with that, we could really see him take off, Max Reed,

and I don't think innings are going to be an issue for him after the amount he threw last year. So I could see him taking a step and becoming, joining that group of 36, maybe even being as high as like a top 20 type pitcher in fantasy, with the Braves offense backing him. All right, so we've got Avi Garcia and Max Fried from Scott. We'll give Scott a little bit more time to search and find a few more. Chris, who do you got as breakouts? Yohan Moncada.

He already broke out last season. And I know there's a lot of concern that he's going to regress because he had a 400 babbip. And apparently I just love guys with 400 Babbs. I was thinking he and here. Wow, how about that? The thing is, yes, he had a 400 Babbitt last season. He has a 369 Babbitt for his career, which is one of the highest in modern baseball history. And that's over 1,500 plate appearances. So at this point, it's pretty clear he is going to be one of the highest Babbitt players in baseball. Last year, his expected batting average, 291, his expected slug, 524. He was top 10%. in average eggs of velocity, expected batting average, expected Wobah on contact, hard hit

percentage. Yal Makata is a really good hitter, and he took steps last year to be more aggressive at the plate to take advantage of his really, really good hitting skills. But the thing that I think is going to make him a breakout is he's struggled with hamstring injuries over the last two seasons, and that's really limited his ability to make an impact on the basis. But he is on the record in spring training saying that he wants to steal more bases. And as my good friend Scott White likes to say, stealing bases is all about intent. And so if the intent is there,

the skills are there for Yohan Moncada, the steal 30 plus base. He was an elite, elite, elite, elite base stealer in the miners, and he's still 72nd percentile in sprint speed right now. So there is potential there. I'm not saying he's going to steal 30 bases, but if you want to talk about upside, Yohan Mankata has Trevor Story upside.

And Trevor Story, famously, is a borderline first round pick. Cool. All right, Yohan Mankata. Who do you like better in a vacuum? Munkata or Kestanhira? Well, neither would be able to breathe in a vacuum. So I would prefer we didn't do that. All right, fine.

Kestin Hira. With a broom. Kest and Hira? Okay. Scott, how about you, Hira or Mankata? Chira. All right, Chris, give me another breakout. Carlos Correa, he's going to break out of not being healthy,

because we know he's an elite hitter over the last three seasons. His 162 game pace is 34 homers, 102 runs, and 115 runs batted in. He's hit 278, and that's with that really, really weird 2018, where his back was hurt all season and he just wasn't right. I'm going to go ahead and say, you know, I like to drag him. guys who are injury prone. Because if they stay healthy, Carlos Correa is the top 20 pick next year

if he plays 150 games. Yeah, I mean, I like Correa a lot. He and Seeger are both really good values at shortstop, especially if you don't need steals. And Correa has been among the OPS leaders in shortstops basically every year he's been healthy. So I'm into that. I just, you know, Chris has loose definitions of sleepers and break.

but that's fine. Scott, you got any more? Of course I have more. Come on. All right. What do you got? Miguel Seno. So I was putting together last night skill tiers as opposed

to positional tiers. This is something I've been talking about for a couple years and I finally decided to try putting pen to paper there, so to speak. I assigned every one of my top 150 hitters a letter grade for batting average home runs and stolen bases.

A through F, basically. Among home run hitters, though, there were three exceptions to the A through F scale. I assigned three players an A plus rating for a home run skill. One of them was Aaron Judge, one of them was Joey Gallo, and one of them was Miguel Sineau, who is as much of an outlier as those two

in terms of how hard he impacts the ball. And what we've learned in recent years, what I've learned specifically, maybe other people already knew, is that's the way to overcome having the ridiculous strikeout rate that Miguel Sino has. Between 35, 40% of the time he strikes out, that is horrible. But when you're making that kind of impact on the ball, you're having so much success when you do make contact that you can still end up being a high-end fantasy player. and he kind of already proved it last year. You project out the numbers for Miguel Sanoe. You're talking a 50 home run season. It's just a matter of staying healthy for him.

And I think he could explode and be a name everybody who follows baseball recognizes with this year if he does stay healthy. He's one of the later kind of breakout picks. I mean, we've given you J.D. Davis and Avi Garcia, I think most people, might say they're sleepers. It doesn't really matter. But Suno, I guess, has a little bit more of a level of provenness than the guys that go later than him.

My point is, like, right now, we've given you Kestin Hira, who maybe you take in, Yohamankata and Kestinira, maybe they are like round five, six picks for you. Then you can take Castellanos. Then you can take

Miguel Sano. And Sineau starts the year as your third baseman, and after one week he's your first baseman. So now you've got a first baseman in Sanoe and you've got a second basement in Hira. You've got a third baseman in Moncada. You've got an outfielder in Castellanos. You've got some late round picks. We'll give you even more players we like. But you load up on starting pitchers early. You take these breakouts. If half of them hit, you're going to be in good shape. And it's not like these are, you know, and there are other picks you can have in between. It's not like this is your entire lineup or anything like that. So I actually, all of these

names. I had a segment called the breakout ometer and I put basically all of these names on there because I thought, oh, these guys might be breakouts and you've already mentioned them. So I am starting to develop my favorite breakouts here through this show. And I think just targeting these guys could be really good. You don't have to invest that early in them except for Hira and Moncada, I guess. And you don't have to go for all of them. But I think I've made my point. Chris, you were saying something? You forgot? Oh. That was Ramling? Oh, I just wanted to chide Scott for not giving Mike Trout an A-plus for home runs. You're penalizing him for being able to do other things. He's been a 50 homer guy the last two seasons, one healthy. Show some dang respect for Mike Trout. It's a pretty good point. He's not the outlier those two are in terms of impacting the ball, though.

Yeah, but he's so, there's a whole thing we could get into. He's a 50 homer hitter. Yeah, what about John Carlos Stanton? He's not an A-plus? John Carlos Stanton stinks. He's not an A-plus. Quote, he's not. He's absolutely an ink-plus.

This is a ridiculous grading scale. Utterly absurd. All right, we've got Max Fried. He has so much of a track record of not being a 40-homer guy, though. That's just because he can't stay healthy. Max Fried. But he will this year. Avi Garcia, Yohan Monkot.

Yeah, when he gets off the I-L, he's going to stay healthy. Avi Garcia, Yohan Moncada, Carlos Correa, Miguel, Sano. Earlier in the show, it was J.D. Davis, Nick Castianos, Kestinheera. A few more before the breakout ometer, and just kind of a quick explanation. Chris, you go. Zach Allen, you don't need any explanation.

He's really good. He's got four legitimate good pitches that he can throw for strikes and get whiffs with. There's top 15 upside there. Scott. Cabin Bigio. These are two of my favorite stats

that I'm about to give right now. Kevin Bizio's 16.5% walk rate last year was bettered only by Mike Trout, Yasmani Grundahl, and Alex Bregman. Pretty good company, right? His ground ball rate, in terms of how low it was, was bettered only by Mike Trout. Among those players. What? No, of all players. Oh, okay.

Of all players. If he had the abats to qualify, he would have had the second lowest ground ball percentage. balls are the worst kinds of contact you could hit in today's game where fly balls so often translate to production. I think Kevin Bizio's ceiling is something like 30 homers and 25 steals. I'm not saying he will reach that ceiling this year, but it's within the realm of possibility. And there's a good chance you're going to get like a 25 homer 20 steel guy. Don't hate on ground balls too much. They often lead to batting average. But if you can make up for it in steals. Yeah, but it's nice.

they lead to bathe up I'm not saying ground balls do lead to more batting average than fly balls do

but you would still in today's environment you would still rather have the guy who hits fly balls since a lot more of them are leaving to park

absolutely Chris one more Scott one more Frankie Motus his splitter is a devastatingly effective pitch he's in the 88th

percentile and expected Wobo among all pitchers. He took performance-enhancing drugs last year, so you know he's going to be strong this year. I really like Frankie Montess. Scott, one more. I am going to say, Willie Calhoun. I think he's Mike Mustakis,

but he plays the outfield instead of second base and third base. Cool. Willie Calhoun. It goes a lot later than Mike Mastakis. All right, listen, I can't have a breakout show without talking about Vladimir Rigarero. He's got to be on there. So, you said you'd rather have Kestin Hero than

Vlad. Would you rather have, is Vlad the first Blue Jays hitter that should be drafted? Does Bichet go ahead of him? It's good. It's right. I mean, he should definitely go ahead of Cabin Bigeo. Yeah, yeah, he should go ahead of Bishio. And I think he goes ahead of Bichette. I don't know that I rank him ahead of Bichet. I think I don't. As Chris has said, he wants to have Vladimir Guerrero on at least one team. I mean, you just, you don't want to miss out on the potential here. Yep. Breakoutometer, zero to ten, ten being extremely likely to break out and have an awesome season.

Victor Robles. Six. I'm going to say five. Ramon Luriano. Three. Yeah, three. That doesn't mean he's bad. It's just that he doesn't have the same ceiling as the other guy.

Right. Michael Conforto. Five? I think that already happened. I'm going to say two. Fram Mel Reyes. Seven. Yeah, I can go with seven.

It's the best shape of his life. Seven meaning that he's going to have his best season, or seven meaning that he's going to be awesome? Fram Mel Reyes. Seven meaning, I think he has a pretty good chance of breaking out. It could be his best season looking back on it. I'm not sure how to answer that. we're not really communicating well today

David Dahl 0 to 10 for David Dahl I mean he's one of those just stay healthy guys so if he just stays healthy it's probably a 7 Not really because he hit so few home runs last year And he doesn't steal So can David Dahl actually contribute in anything

Other than batting average Well he He was good enough there that he was must start So it is really mostly about the health Could he get better? I think he could get better as a home run hitter. I think he could get better as a batting average source because he struck out a lot last year too.

It's just he needs to optimize in the way so many players have around the league. But playing at Coors Field gives him so many advantages that it looks like he's at least good enough to take advantage of. So I'll put it more like a six. And for pitchers, how about Jack Flaherty, his ability to break out into the super ace tier I'm liking Flaherty a lot

I like Bueller better but I think Flaherty would be my sixth pitcher off the board and that would probably make me the high guy on him I think he's not particularly likely to be much better than he was last year overall that's the thing is like didn't it already happen yeah no he had a pretty bad first half

I understand but then he had like the best second half ever if you put it together and he was Okay, so he ranked just behind Patrick Corbyn in head-to-head points per game. So, you know what, you're right. Here's what happened. He won 11 games.

He had a 275 ERA, 231 strikeouts, and a 0.97 whip. Maybe Jack Flaherty can't get better than that. But if he does that again, he's probably a 16-17 game winner, and then he looks like a borderline first-round pick. Or just, no, because he's not going to strike out 300 guys. He looks like a mid-second round pick, a top-20 type of pick. So that's why I like Flaherty better than Strasbourg. That whole round-three group where you've got an injured Clevenger

and you've got an injury. Obviously, sales gone. You got Snell in there. I'm gravitating towards Flaherty in that group. Yeah, he tends to go mid-second in a lot of the drafts I do. I think that's the consensus viewpoint. I've been the biggest Strasbler. Defender on this podcast, and I still flaredy ahead of Strasbourg.

Well, I really botched this because I just don't think we have time for auction stuff. So let's do auction stuff tomorrow. And Chris has to leave because to go to the dentist. We're doing an auction tomorrow. Yeah, I know. Big auction. So we'll do an auction. I think that'll work.

I think we'll do the auction talk tomorrow morning. Then we'll do the auction. Then we'll talk about it on Monday and see what takeaways we had from it. All right. Chris, thanks for hopping on. Thanks for having me, Adam. It's a pleasure as always. Goodbye to Heath.

Goodbye to Chris. And now, give the people what they want. Just Adam and Scott. Oh, yeah. Adam Scott from Parks and Rick. And also my first middle name. Don't forget that. Oh, no.

Scott, did we miss any early round breakout pitchers? Like, if Luis Castillo really starts becoming a three-pitch pitcher, and if Chris Paddock can get that curveball going in there, they obviously have huge potential. You know, who stands out to you as the next guy to move up like two rounds next year? Oh, Paddock, it would be one of them, yeah. I'm kind of in my pitcher strategy piece

where I kind of got specific about how the tiers work, and I talked about the players who were actually aces last year, the players who weren't, but we still consider them aces. And then the players who are very close to being aces, that third group would be the group to look at for breakout candidates on the high end at starting pitch. Chris Paddock would be in it, because obviously he didn't have the workload. That's all it'll take. If he adds a third pitch, that'll be even better.

Tyler Glass now would probably be the biggest one for me because inning for inning. He was the best starting pitcher last year. It's just he threw like 70 innings or whatever. and we don't know exactly what to expect from him in terms of how much to count on him, how long he's going to be there. Jesus Luzardo, going a little further down. Chris mentioned Zach Allen.

I like him a lot too. I already group him among the 36 pitchers that I think will perform like aces, even though he's, you know, he has only 15 major league starts under his belt. Jesus Luzardo is going to fall short in the innings, but he could be kind of like Chris Paddock was last year. In fact, I would probably bet on him being bad.

I think he's, I don't think there's much development that needs to happen there. It's just Luzardo needs to stay healthy. The athletics need to let him pitch deep enough into games, and I think he should be great. Frankie Montas, I guess we could still call him a breakout. Obviously, it was only half a season where he pitched like an ace. Chris likes it. You do it over a full season

and it'll be a much bigger deal in fantasy. Scott, there's a pitcher that that to me has to mentally form me on draft day kind of clear a hurdle because I've tried to defend Eduardo Rodriguez in the past.

He's sort of let me down and then I just sort of realized that he's such an inefficient pitcher and I just don't want him. He never gives you a quality start. He throws 105 pitches in five and two thirds. This is at one.

Eduardo Rodriguez I'm talking about, but he made a change. He started throwing a sinker ball, and his last 24 starts, he had a 321 ERA. He's always been a pretty good strikeout pitcher, and he started getting ground balls. That was a big difference for Eduardo Rodriguez. The whip is always problematic. So unless he can get that down, he probably can't be a true breakout, but he could be a good value. And, you know, you just, if he were the same old pitcher that just had a really good stretch, should be one thing, but the fact that he changed his arsenal, how do you feel about

Eduardo Rodriguez becoming a true must-start pitcher? I'm not there yet. I got to see it. Well, based on the way his numbers ended up, wasn't he must-start last year? You're saying it happened. He really took off late in the year, so we didn't regard him the same way in May and June as we did in August and September. So, look, he had a 543 ERA in his first 10 starts.

At that point, he's off rosters. Yeah. It probably takes three or four starts for people to start adding him again. It probably takes a few starts for people to really trust him. So half the season, he was probably a must start. But he's got this history behind him where I don't know if people really bought it. And I don't remember how we were thinking about it, Warder Rodriguez. But, you know, to me, Scott and I kind of use must start differently.

I think there are, my guess is I think there are fewer must starts than Scott does. I sit a one-star Eduardo Rodriguez for a two-stared streamer sometimes but can he join the group where it's like it's not even a question you are starting Eduardo Rodriguez I don't think he can get better than he was last year I think he can only get worse than he was last year

because last year he managed to stay healthy last year he won 19 games that one especially is not going to happen again but now that he kind of has some cred I think the people who draft him are pretty much going to stick with him and he's going to give them reason to. I think he is,

I'm evaluating him kind of like another Zach Wheeler where not quite an ace, but he's proven enough that you're not going to mess around with that lineup spot too much. All right, let's read some emails, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. You know, the problem I keep running into on these shows is that I put too many segments in.

So that's why the timing gets off. Tomorrow is just busts an auction talk, and that is it. Please, no major injuries today. Please, please, please, please. Here's Brett in Jersey. Dear, Cahill, Lawrence, Hoffman, and Story. Oh, come on, Scott. Hoffman.

Okay, so Trevor, sorry. What's the deal with? What's the deal with Trevor Story? Just listen to your live mock and saw that he was drafted in the first round. Why? He's got potential to lead the league in strikeouts. What am I missing? By the way, that draft was a points league.

So I guess I understand the question. In Roto, it's different. But Scott, what's the deal with Trevor Story? He's actually gotten a lot better with the strikeouts the past two years. He's not a low strikeout hitter. But when he first came into the league, he was one of those Joey Gallo-level strikeout guys where, yeah, It's like, this is going to be a real problem for him. No, he's not that player anymore.

And, I mean, just look at how he did in a points league last year, points league the year before. Yeah, I think it's a reach in the first round. I think he's definitively a second round pick. Well, okay, let me tell you where he, let me tell you what he did in points leagues and in Roto. In Roto, or in points leagues, he has been the number 10 hitter and the number 19 hitter in the last two seasons.

In Roto, he has been the number six hitter and the number 10 hitter. So Trevor Story is a first round pick in Roto. In Points Leagues, I think he's more of a second round pick. You don't need the steals. Okay. Why would you take him over Freeman? Why would you take him over Aeronado? I think it's a second round pick.

That's fine. Yeah. That's fair. I don't make a huge distinction between, other than the top five hitters, which are obviously on a different level. I don't make that big of a distinction between the hitters going in the first and second round, but I get your point.

Would you take Jose Ramirez or Trevor's story? Well, at risk of contradicting my rankings, I'm inclined to say Jose Ramirez right now. Let me see if that's how I actually rank them, so I can change them if I don't rank them that way. Are you talking points or roto here? I thought you were talking points. Let's do both. Okay, so Story in Roto. Yeah, my thinking was I actually would take Jose Ramirez over Trevor's story in points

leagues, but not in Roto. but if I believe in Jose Ramirez Why wouldn't I take him over Trevor's story in Rodo? Because if he performs like he's capable of, he'll be better than, you know, the steals will be pretty similar. Well, let's think about that. There's a chance you could get both. You could, yeah.

If you don't want both, then it depends where you're picking. If you take Jose Ramirez late in the first round, I've yet to see a draft where that happens. So you should probably take somebody else and grab them with your second pick. But it's not crazy to think. Yeah, and he was the third player draft consensus number three player last year, Jose Ramirez. And he could get back to that, sure. So if you want to...

Yeah, I can't ignore. I can't... You cannot just completely pretend that the end of 2018 and the first half of 2019 didn't happen. So that's why I'll take story. So my overall points rankings, I have Trevor Story 17 and Jose Ramirez 25. Jose Ramirez definitely has more upside in that format. I'll look into that more. I have them at a $3 difference auction value-wise.

Yeah, something to consider. Third base, it does have more playable players in a shallow format like that where you don't have the extra spots to work with. That's part of what's factoring in there too. Interesting. Okay, next email comes from Daniel Rice. I'm trying to get a full list of Sparps,

the relivers that are eligible or the starters that are eligible as relievers. Carrasco, Lazzardo, Carlos Martinez, Maeda, Yarbrough, Luisarious, A.J. Puck. Is there anyone else? Yes. There are others. Josh James, Adrian Houser, right?

Yep, Josh James and Adrian Houser. Those are two favorite sleepers of mine. Nathan Avaldi, not super excited about him. but that is somebody. Sean Newcomb, if he wins the rotation spot for the Braves, will be that.

Dustimea and Ross Stripling are more like players you'd stash if they get a chance for the Dodgers later, which they probably will. And that may be it. He may have got most of them there. And this email

comes from, hold on, getting there, Jared. I have to throw this out there after listening to the points mock draft special. Sparps.

I like having them on my team, but only for two start weeks, because when it comes down to one-star weeks, I will usually have them in an SP spot. For your team, Azer, your rotation looked like Scherzer, Morton, Weaver, Hamels, Keller, McKay, until James Paxton's back.

And Carasco and Kimbrel at RP. But on a one-star week, I would much rather have Carasco in my SP slot and start a normal closer rather than Keller or McKay or even Hamill's some weeks. The available closers at the time were Eglacius, Anderson, Workman, and Colomé. Yeah, you know, I would rather have a normal closer

than those back-end pitchers, I agree. I feel like I'll be able to, like either those guys are going to be good or I'll be able to find better pitchers on the waiver wire. But it's not a bad point. I'm not opposed to using a spark as a starting pitcher in a one-start week and getting a closer,

a traditional closer in there. I've done it before. I'd do it again. Well, I mean, if you subscribe to what I've been talking about all preseason that there's a clear limit to the number of usable starting pitchers. So if you don't have five of those guys,

then one of those parts may end up having to enter your lineup. But it's so easy to find a playable closer that from a draft standpoint, there's no need to draft those guys for a starting pitcher spot, I guess. It just may end up being something you do. Finally, plaques at the beach.

Is it a 14-te-to-head vampire league? Ooh, those are fun. Auction. What is a vampire league? If Vampire League is like you have a 14-team league and one team does not draft, and that's the vampire but makes a team with waivers

and then if the vampire team, you play head to head, obviously the vampire team's gonna have the worst team, but if they beat you, they get to trade one of their players for a player on your team. It could be the same position or whatever, but they just get to,

when they win games, they just start picking off the best players on other team's rosters. I'd never heard of that before. They have no chance of winning the league, though, still, right? Sure. Sure. I mean, if they get off to, yeah, I mean, there's also the league where one team gets eliminated every week.

What the hell are those called? Why am I drawing a blank? You play a 12-team league, the lowest-scoring team gets eliminated every week. And then all- Was that? It's not like a survivor league, is it? No, it's got a name. I don't know why I can't think of it. Because I've got vampire on my brain.

The lowest scoring team gets eliminated every week and that team's players become either available as free agents or auction. You should really do an auction. Those are really fun. It's really a football thing, but those are really fun. But yeah. So anyway, it doesn't really matter for the purpose of this question, but it's a $300 budget instead of

240. How does that change your thinking in a 14-team league? It doesn't, the budget doesn't really change it. I mean, if you're working off a list of auction values that have been made with $260 in mind, then obviously you have to expect those guys to go for more than that. But in terms of how, what percentages of dollars I allocate to what I want, that doesn't change. It's just a higher number. Yeah, but I think his point in the email, I didn't read this part,

but that I sort of agree with is that the high-end guys will start going for more. I don't know that the middle-tier guys and certainly not the low like dollar guys. It's not like the dollar guys are going to become two or three-dollar guys. Yeah, they're still going to be dollar players. That's true. But since it's 14-leagues and 14-team league instead of the usual 12 we work with, those dollar players are also going to be worse. Yeah, yeah, kind of scrubby.

Kind of scrubby. All right, everybody, thanks for listening. Bust and auctions tomorrow and a mailbag that will air Saturday for Scott, for Chris, for Heath. I'm Adam. See them.