Fantasy Baseball Today - Brooks Lee & Shane Baz Promoted! Start, Sit or Drop These Pitchers? (7/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 4, 2024

Happy Birthday, Chris! Andrew Abbott got away with it again (5:35). ... Dean Kremer looked great in his return from the IL (10:05). ... Joey Estes threw a Maddux against the Angels (14:08)! ... Royce ...Lewis went on the IL and Royce Lewis was promoted (17:55)! Aaron Civale was traded, which means Shane Baz is back! ... News (25:50): Jordan Romano had elbow surgery and will not throw for six weeks. ... How do we rank Abbott, Kremer, Michael Wacha and Colin Rea (30:55)? ... Gavin Williams got hit hard in his season debut (36:15). ... Three other young pitchers struggled (41:04). ... Add Mark Vientos or Noelvi Marte (45:51)? ... Start, sit or drop Ryan Pepiot, Carlos Rodon and Yusei Kikuchi (51:21)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (58:44). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Happy Fourth of July and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today. I am Frank Stanfield, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we got some big injury news.
Starting point is 00:00:33 A trade went down, two big promotions. Gavin Williams, not so great in his debut, and we'll do a little start, sit, or drop for three confusing pitchers. But first, happy birthday to Chris. Woo! What's going on. Thanks. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:00:48 Do you enjoy having your birthday on Fourth of July? I mean, I didn't really get a choice. So, you know, yeah, it's fine. That wasn't the question, Chris. It was weird, like, as a kid, I never really, like, I never got to go to school and be, like, the center of attention. and like, I don't know. Like, I have a lot of weird feelings about birthdays. Like, I know Dave Richard on the FFT podcast.
Starting point is 00:01:11 He hates his birthday. Like, he do not mention that guy's birthday when is his birthday. All right. Oh, yeah, he'll get angry. I'm not like that. But I, yeah, I feel weird about it. I don't know. I was born.
Starting point is 00:01:22 I didn't, like, I didn't do anything. It's like with most other things. I want the acknowledgement, but I'm uncomfortable with the acknowledgement. Yeah, I think that's, yeah, like, I want people to say happy birthday, but I don't want to have to text everyone back. I give me in a group chat and like two people said happy birthday. I can't say thank you to two people. I got to wait until we've reached a critical mass
Starting point is 00:01:47 and then be like, oh, thanks so much, guys. You don't really have to. It's fine. Thanks. They just, they remembered you, Chris. But, you know, if you want to buy me a present. Yeah. That's great.
Starting point is 00:01:58 Let's do that. Any big plans? Fourth of July, Scott, Chris, anything going on? Nothing? We are going to our first baseball game of the year. Oh, Red Sox Marlins. That's a nice one. Tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:02:10 Yeah, I have a Marlins hat and I have a Red Sox hat. Got to wear them on. Don't you dare. I was going to let my kids pick which one they wanted to wear. They're fighting over the Red Sox hat. Why, I mean, that makes sense. Does it make sense? They're better.
Starting point is 00:02:28 I feel like the Red Sox are one of those teams. And, you know, I wear a lot of different teams. merchandise on the show, Brewer's Angels, Rockies. I wore a raise hat on a podcast that you haven't seen yet. But I feel like the Red Sox are one of those teams where you can't wear it casually.
Starting point is 00:02:48 This is the thing. Like I'm a big, Pedro Martinez is one of my favorite baseball players of all time and I've been eyeing. I love wearing these like mesh jerseys. They're great in the summer. They don't get hot. And I've been eyeing a Pedro Martinez one.
Starting point is 00:03:00 But like, I don't want to be out in public and have people think up from Boston. It's just too much baggage. It's just, not that there's anything wrong with being from Boston, but it's like a Red Sox fan comes with too many presumptions.
Starting point is 00:03:13 Yeah, like I would never wear a Yankee. Yankees. Same thing. There's no one. Mets. Mets, I like some of their stuff.
Starting point is 00:03:21 Oh, I'm to that point with the Phillies, but that's speaking as a Braves fan. I love the Phillies. Cubs and Cardinals, I feel like, are kind of borderline. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:03:32 It honestly just comes down to aesthetic. I just not like the Yankees aesthetic very much. Boring. Yeah, I'm sure that's the reason, Chris. I get it. That's totally fine. Let's talk about baseball because I'm sure people want to hear more than this. Let's jump in.
Starting point is 00:03:45 Holy Toledo. The element of surprise brings supreme. All right, birthday boy, you are up. Player of the night. Can you play the audio from last night? Because I kind of nailed this one. Yep. This was our own Chris Towers.
Starting point is 00:04:02 on yesterday's podcast. We're going to come on here on Wednesday night, and we're going to talk about, I can't believe Andrew Rabbit did it again. You're going to play the drop from Breaking Bad and all that stuff because he's going to have, you know, four hits, one earn run over five and two thirds innings with three strikeouts tonight.
Starting point is 00:04:17 It's going to be, we're going to be so mad. Six in a third inning, three hits, one run, two strikeouts with four walks is what Andrew Abbott actually did against the Yankees. He can't keep getting away with it. He keeps getting away with it.
Starting point is 00:04:31 This is another one. where five hard hit balls, I think only, I think it was only like two batted balls with an expected batting average over 500. He just generated a ton of weak, relatively harmless contact. He's ERA is down to 328, and I still just think there's nothing there.
Starting point is 00:04:52 And I hate that there have been so many times this season, including at least one more time within, in the next five minutes or so, where we've had to say, yes, this was a great performance by this pitcher. No, we do not care at all, even a little bit for fantasy. And I think we care more about Andrew Abbott
Starting point is 00:05:17 than say Sean Estes or Joey Estes, excuse me. But yeah, I still just, I have no faith in Andrew Abbott continuing to be a useful fantasy pitcher. He had four walks and two strikeouts today. And he limited the Yankees to one earn run. I can't. Like, I just, I'm sorry, I can't buy into that. And if he has a 3.28 ERA the rest of the way, I guess I'll look like an idiot.
Starting point is 00:05:42 I'm just not going to buy into it. You know, you make a good point. This year, my 17th year covering fantasy baseball for CBS, more than any other year, this year, everything's just kind of stayed stagnant from like, you know, all the time. we say in April, okay, regression to the mean is coming. He's doing this thing now, but it's going to get back to normal. And here we are in July. And very few of those players have gotten back to normal. We sound like a bunch of blowhards who don't know what we're talking about when I have 17 years of experience. And it pretty much always goes the way we laid out early in the season. It's been,
Starting point is 00:06:30 it's been weird in terms of how everybody's just kind of stayed in the state in the path that they said at the start of the year. Still saying it's not going to happen all year. But it's been weird how long it has happened. It's just it's frustrating having the same conversations every day about pictures that we who we know aren't very good. And the thing to keep in mind is in this environment, Andrew Abbott's 328 ERA and one. 120 whip with 74 strikeouts and 96 innings, it's actually not that valuable anyway, even though, you know, the numbers look pretty good.
Starting point is 00:07:10 So it's, we have to talk about them, but I just wish I had something else to say about these, these pitching performances, you know? I hate to defy a good bit because I mostly agree with everything on Andrew Abbott. The one thing that I will add is that if these matchups are correct for next week, he gets the Rockies in Cincinnati. and the Marlins. Now, both of those starts are in Cincinnati,
Starting point is 00:07:33 so anything can happen, but you can't really get a two-start week better than those matchups. There are some pitchers who have had good performances this season where I actually just don't care about it. Andrew Abbott, it's not like he's without merit. We have seen stretches from him where he's gotten strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:07:52 He has done a very good job of limiting hard contact. This season is expected Wobah 326 allowed so far this season. 326 expected Wobon contact that is so that's an elite mark he's getting a ton of pop-ups like it's not that he's just terrible
Starting point is 00:08:08 it's just that he's in over his head and while I think Rockies and Marlins should go pretty well for him in a two-star week next week I think you can probably drop him there and if he has two bad starts even against the Rockies and Marlins
Starting point is 00:08:22 not going to be surprised at all all right Scott over to you Player of the Night My player of the night is Dean who was even more available than Andrew Abbott, and I think that should change. He was pretty useful before going on the I.L. With not even sure what he had, triceps, a triceps injury.
Starting point is 00:08:47 He'd been out since May 20th. His final start before going on, the IOL was bad and brought his area up over four. But prior to that, he had been pretty useful for fantasy. obviously has the Orioles offense backing him, generally pitches deep into games, kind of useful in that Kyle Gibson sort of way. He comes back after that six, seven week absence, whatever it was, and looks the best he ever has.
Starting point is 00:09:18 Only goes five innings at the Mariners first start back from the IL, but he allowed no runs, two hits, struck out eight, had 16 swinging strikes on 83 pitches. including eight on his fastball, and seven on his splitter. And that's what really stands out to me, the splitter. He threw it 31% of the time up from 13% previously. And it was up 1.3 miles per hour. It's not like his VILA was up across the board.
Starting point is 00:09:48 That pitch specifically. Like he had gone to work on that pitch and was clearly featuring it in a way he hadn't before. Prior to it, even when he was thrown at 13% of the time with reduced velocity, The splitter was Kramer's best pitch, best swing and miss pitch anyway. But it was at another level in this return from the IL. And considering he was already useful just as he was, maybe this will normalize. Maybe the splitter will look like it was prior to the IL stint next time out.
Starting point is 00:10:18 I don't know. If nothing else it bears watching. But that's like, even if that happens, he's still worth picking up. He's less than 50% rostered. If this splitter turns out to be a transformative pitch for Dean Kramer and introduces all new upside, particularly strikeout upside, then that's all the more reason. The prospect of that is even more reason that he's worth picking up. And he lines up for two starts next week, too. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:45 And it does appear to have been a conscious change. We can't say that for sure until he talks about it. But the spin rate, not just the velocity, the spin rate was up 3205 rbms from 770. 7 to 1102. So, you know, this is a new pitch for Dean Kramer. It's one he wasn't throwing last year. Last year he had a more traditional change up to had, you know, a decent statistical profile,
Starting point is 00:11:09 but the Splitter has been a much better pitch for him this season. So this is definitely something worth watching. He's clearly still tinkering with that pitch to try to find the right answers. And the way it looked today, yeah, it could be a really, really useful second pitch for him. Who would you guys rather have between Abbott and Kramer? Oh, Kramer. Okay. We said it the exact same way.
Starting point is 00:11:33 I think I agree. I think if you just need a pitcher for next week with those matchups, I might take Abbott, but rest of season, I think Kramer probably has more upside, especially. Does anyone have a Kramer's matchups ahead of him? Kramer's Cubs and Yankees.
Starting point is 00:11:47 Yeah. Cubs are not that good of a matchup. I think they've fallen into the bottom third and run scored. So they're not that bad of a matchup. 19th and run. And Yankees are not great right now, but I think we're still worried about them. I'm not just saying this because I'm the pessimistic Yankee fan,
Starting point is 00:12:02 but their lineup is bad right now. I mean, they have, no, they only have two guys, I think, with a way to run Creative Plus above 100 right now. They only have two above average hitters.
Starting point is 00:12:11 They're just arguably the two hitter, two best hitters in baseball. They had, I agree with what you're, well, what you're originally saying, Frank. Dean Kramer is the gutsyer star with his two matchups than app it is with
Starting point is 00:12:23 his two, but I definitely like the upside of Kramer more. All right, let's talk about Joey Estes, who turned in a Maddox. That's right. A complete game shutout in less than 100 pitches, a five-pitch shutout for Joey Estes going up against the Angels, a team that he has faced two times in a row. And normally you would figure, all right, that should favor the offense, but it turns out Joey Estes just came out here and shoved because, well, the Angels lineup is not very good. But I don't want to take anything away.
Starting point is 00:12:52 It was a great start for him. 15 whiffs on 92 pitches. 11 of those came on his fastball. Three on the sweeper. And he's a weird pitcher because he leans on his fastball a lot. Entering this start, he used it 56% of the time. He threw it over 60% in this outing. And as I mentioned, the fastball was really good.
Starting point is 00:13:13 I mean, I don't really see anything in terms of the velocity. Maybe it's, you know, one of these deceptive fastballs. He does get a lot of fly balls. So just kind of an interesting pitcher to figure out. Last seven starts for what it's worth. Joey Estes, a 318 ERA, a 103 whip, well below a strikeout per inning. He's 9% rostered. Is there anything here in deeper leagues, Joey Estes?
Starting point is 00:13:39 Not really. No, I mean, it'll take a lot more of this for me to warm up to Joey Estes. Yeah, he's at Boston and at Philadelphia next week. so yikes. No. No. Not someone I'm particularly interested in adding. All right.
Starting point is 00:13:56 Well, great start, Joey Sissus, but we need to see more if it's going to matter in fantasy. Reminder, we will not be live on YouTube later tonight with our normal Thursday recap since it's 4th of July. Instead, we recorded sleepers, breakouts, and busts for the second half of the season. And that will drop on Friday morning. One more reminder that you can always listen to FBT and our five-minute podcast, FBT and 5 on Spotify. If you're watching on YouTube, you can scan the QR code. That will take you right to the FBT feed on Spotify.
Starting point is 00:14:26 Let's take our first break. When we return, two big promotions. We'll talk about that right after this. Welcome back in, and we got two big promotions on Wednesday for different circumstances. So first up, Royce Lewis was officially placed in the IL with a grade two right adductor strain. And as a result, the twins called up one of their top prospects, Brooks Lee, in 30 games, the minors this season. He was batting 350 with seven homers, two steals,
Starting point is 00:14:53 a 997 OPS. He was in the lineup at third base. Batting eighth, he went two for four with an RBI in his debut. 32% rostered. Scott, Brooks Lee, your thoughts? Is he a must add in fantasy? I don't think he's a must
Starting point is 00:15:10 add. I'm a little skeptical of the profile, I have to say, given how highly ranked of a prospect he is. I think MLB pipeline had him 13th overall at the time of his promotion. Obviously, the production was good, and he was the seventh overall, eighth overall pick two years ago. So what makes me skeptical?
Starting point is 00:15:34 Well, it is a good hit tool. I'm willing to say that. Low strikeout rate, high line drive rate, good all fields approach. Should hit for average, but that is the hardest, that is one of the harder things to predict for a minor league or breaking into the majors, but in theory, Brooks Lee should provide that. I'm more skeptical of the power. His average exit velocity at AAA 85.4 miles per hour is max exit velocity 104.9.
Starting point is 00:16:02 Those would rank both of them near the bottom of all major league hitters. It's similar to Jeff McNeil, the exit velocity readings for Brooks Lee. So, you know, that's obviously not everything. I saw enough of his seven home runs to know that he really he really knows how to turn on an inside pitch and as everybody knows with Isok Perretta, is you can deliver power numbers with low exit velocities that way and maybe Brooks Lee is uniquely talented like that.
Starting point is 00:16:36 But I think that's a big assumption to make before he even makes his major league debut. There's enough upside that I think he's must add in leagues that require extra middle infielders, like a standard roto league. But head to head, where you don't need that, I'm probably going to wait and see. I have them around 25th in my shortstop rankings.
Starting point is 00:16:55 Yeah, I could see an upside case of maybe, from a fantasy perspective, maybe like a Brandon Nimmo type, where it's maxing out at around 20 home runs, but usually a pretty good batting average, maybe a little more batting average, a little less patience in the Nimmo profile, but the overall profile.
Starting point is 00:17:16 like a guy who would look a lot more interesting. And McBrandenheim was a good player, but like he's always felt like someone who, man, if he just stole 15 bases, it would really, it would bring the whole room together. And it never quite does. And that's Brooklyn had six steals at AA last year.
Starting point is 00:17:33 But other than that, he's had one steal so far this season, only 20 games, but only one at AAA last year in 38 games. So two and 58 games. I think we can assume he's not going to run very much. And so it puts, a lot of pressure on the hit tool in particular to play up.
Starting point is 00:17:51 And in a way that, like Scott said, I think middle infielder, a fine addition, but not someone that I, that I have like star hopes for in the immediate future. Just to put a little personal note on this, last year in the Scott White Dynasty League, I purged my roster of three high-end prospects in one trade. All three because I caught a glimpse of their exit velocity readings and didn't like what I saw. Brooks Lee was one, also Miguel Vargas and Vaughn Grissom. In a Deep Dynasty League, this league in particular, like trading young prospects with high pedigrees is, they're like gold. They're like the most valuable asset, and they moved all three in one deal.
Starting point is 00:18:41 So that's going to be something to monitor going forward if my big investment in exit velocity pays off or not, or if these guys turn out to succeed in spite of it. I do agree with both of what you guys said regarding Brooks Lee in fantasy. I think any leagues with a middle or a corner, sounds like he's going to play third base. So he'll gain corner infield as well, third base. Yeah, I think 12 team Roto Leagues are deeper. He's someone that you could take a shot on. We didn't get a timeline on
Starting point is 00:19:12 Royce Lewis, but according to Google, grade 2 at Dr. Strain's can take three to six weeks. So that's a pretty wide range. But yeah, I think anywhere, you know, we're not going to see him until after the All-Star break, obviously. Again, that's Royce Lewis. And we had a trade.
Starting point is 00:19:28 Aaron Savali was traded over to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for minor league infielder Gregory Barrios. And that means he will become a available in NL only leagues for those who play. The bigger news here is that Shane Boz will take over Savali's spot in the rotation and will start Friday in Texas. His overall numbers in the minors don't look too great,
Starting point is 00:19:48 but if you look at just his last five starts, they were much better. A 157 ERA, a 130 whip, 35 strikeouts, over 23 innings. Chris, Shane Boz is 67% rostered. This one feels like maybe a little bit more priority than someone like Brooksley. Yes. Yeah, I mean, he's already more rostered, so that that kind of goes without saying. But I do think Shane Baas should be added in pretty much any fantasy league at this point. Now that we know that he's going to be in the rotation moving forward, he is, I think probably the most talented pitcher remaining in the minors, at least among the guys who are on the verge of getting called up. There might be some guys in the lower minors with more upside. But this is a guy who, One has already shown the ability to get a lot of strikeouts at the major league level. You know, we haven't seen a ton of him, but 29% strikeout rate. So I think because I think people kind of have lost sight of how good Shane Baz is and was.
Starting point is 00:20:48 His first eight major league starts, he had a 261 ERA.97 whip 10.9K per 9. Now the ninth start was terrible, but that was the start that preceded Tommy John surgery. So I'm inclined to throw it out. Yeah, so there is This is one of the most exciting pitching prospects in baseball Someone who absolutely has impact upside And someone that Even with Andrew Abbott's good starts next week
Starting point is 00:21:16 I would absolutely drop Andrew Abbott for him I'm trying to think of what Some pitchers who I Wouldn't drop for him I think he probably needs to be like in the 60 range Already I moved him up to 60 first I thing.
Starting point is 00:21:36 Christian Scott and Gavin Williams both could be dropped for Boz. Yeah, I think that would be fine. Yeah. As much upside as they have, and we'll get to them later, I'm sure. But yeah, I'm pretty excited for this. Just in part because the race went all in, dealing away here in Savali to make it happen. I know Jeffrey Springs is going to return from the IL soon and give them another option, but it seems like they're convinced Boz is ready to roll again.
Starting point is 00:22:02 And who was that prospect they acquired? Because it basically means they traded Kyle Monsardo for this prospect. It was no-name prospect. Gregory Barrios. Maybe he's not a no-name prospect, but I follow prospects pretty closely and hadn't heard of him. Yeah. All right. So go check in Shaller Leagues.
Starting point is 00:22:23 Make sure Shane Boz is not available because he is out there in 33% of CBS leagues. Some other news and notes, Jordan Romano underwent arthroscopic surgery. on his right elbow to repair an impingement and will be shut down from throwing for at least six weeks. That makes it sound like best case scenario is that he returns in September. I don't really have much confidence in that actually happening. The other news that came with this
Starting point is 00:22:49 is that Jimmy Garcia threw a bullpen on Wednesday and will need at least one more minor league rehab appearance before being activated. Garcia is 26% rostered. And once he returns, which could be soon. My guess is that Garcia would take over once again as the Blue Jays closer.
Starting point is 00:23:08 I presume so. Yeah, he was really good before the injury. I mean, green's been good too. So it's not unthinkable. It really kind of depends what happens between now and then how good green looks if Jimmy Garcia has any issues coming off the IL. But yeah, my present.
Starting point is 00:23:32 is the same as yours, that it would go back to Garcia. All right, Kyle Tucker has seen his recovery pickup in recent days and is planning to do on-field work this week. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is no longer feeling pain in his right shoulder, but he hasn't started throwing yet. He's on the IL with a right rotator cuff strain. Corey Seeger returned to the lineup Wednesday after missing two games with a left wrist injury.
Starting point is 00:23:54 Jared Jones left to start early with a strained lat when speaking to the media after the game. He didn't seem concerned about it, but lads can be. pretty tricky for pitchers and those are injuries at times that could kind of bleed into a shoulder injury and things like that. So hopefully that's not the case. Of course, my mind instantly starts thinking, oh, well, maybe this is the reason they skipped his start. Not that, we don't know that, but it's just, that's where my mind goes. Well, I, if I'm the pirates, I'm not going to take any chances with Jared Jones, particularly since I'm looking to limit his innings. This kind of gives me an excuse to do that. All-Star break coming up.
Starting point is 00:24:32 to I imagine. He could miss three weeks and miss two starts if they get it. Right. So I anticipate an aisle stint for this. But, but yeah, he said he could have kept pitching through it. So it doesn't sound serious at first blush. Do I use that expression right? That sounds right. That sounds right at first blush.
Starting point is 00:24:52 Yeah. Yeah. All right. It's the sort of thing I'd Google before I wrote it just to be sure. At first glance, probably. Yeah. Yeah, that's not as poetic. Plus, that's better.
Starting point is 00:25:04 And Scott is nothing if not a poet. Mookie Betts could return as the team's primary second basement upon his return, mostly due to how well McGill Rojas has played shortstop defensively. Zander Bogarts could begin a rehab assignment within the next day or two. Team officials have suggested Bogarts would need seven to ten days worth of rehab. Justin Verlander is now playing catch every other day. He remains without a timeline to return as he works through a, neck injury. Michael Harris began running on Wednesday, but there's still no timeline for when he'll
Starting point is 00:25:36 begin a rehab assignment. Josh Young will be shut down until next week to allow his right wrist to rest, and he will not return before the All-Star break. Joey Ortiz was placing the IL with neck inflammation. George Springer was moved back up to the lead-off spot for the Blue Jays. He has not hit lead-off since early May, but he's been hot, so he gets another chance. And Casey Mize was placed in the IL with a strained left hamstring. Did want to mention this because I wanted to get to it earlier as an honorable mention player of the night. Just a big game for James Wood is pretty awesome to see only three games into his career,
Starting point is 00:26:13 but two for three with a walk, a run, an RBI, and his first career steal. He had two hard hits in this game, a single that was 109.6, a groundout that was 108.7. He was moved up to third in the lineup versus a righty. He has a walk in each game so far, only one strikeout. It's an extremely small sample size, but it looks good so far. Yeah, I will point out what I pointed out after his first game, and obviously we're dealing with such small samples here that it's kind of ridiculous to point out anything.
Starting point is 00:26:43 But since we're going down that path anyway, I will mention that for James Wood in this one, as hard hit as those balls were, his highest launch angle on any of his three batted balls was four degrees. And that's my biggest concern for him because he put a lot of batty balls on the ground at AAA. And that's not me hating. I want James Wood to be a first round pick next year in fantasy. I want it all to go great.
Starting point is 00:27:14 But I do need to assess things honestly. It's not hating, it's hand-wringing. That's my new expression I'm going to use when people accuse me of hating. There's no malice. It's just neurosis. All right, Chris. He is a poet, if anything. Really?
Starting point is 00:27:34 Let's get into Waverwire pitchers. We already spoke about Andrew Abbott. We already spoke about Dean Kramer. Two other names that pitched well. Michael Waka, a strong start up against Tampa Bay. Six innings, one run, eight strikeouts. He had 17 whiffs on 97 pitches. And did change the pitch mix in this start.
Starting point is 00:27:50 He made the cutter, his most used pitch, which has not been the case for most of the season. And Colin Ray, a great start in course field. He threw seven sharp. out innings with four strikeouts. And over his last six starts, he has a 256 ERA and a point 99 whip. Chris, how would you rank all the names we've talked about?
Starting point is 00:28:10 Dean Kramer, it's your birthday, you gotta talk. Dean Kramer, Colin Ray. I just don't want to do the thing with Colin Ray. Like, it's the, I just, I hate it. Rank these guys? I didn't even list them off. Do you want to know who they are or no? Yes.
Starting point is 00:28:26 All right. Dean Kramer, Colin Ray, Michael Waka, and Andrew. Abbot Michael Waka, Andrew Abbott, Dean Kramer, and Colin Ray. I don't really
Starting point is 00:28:39 see much there with Colin Ray. He gets, he's not even like getting ground balls. I don't really understand it. Like the strike rate
Starting point is 00:28:51 is super low. His K-minus walk rate is like 9% right now. His XERA is 531. Yeah. Yeah, for as hard as we've been on Tyler Anderson, things look just as ugly for Colin Ray. I think everyone kind of knows it is the thing.
Starting point is 00:29:10 Nobody's really buying that hard into Colin Ray. Yeah, I don't think we're going to get like, oh, this Colin Ray hate is disrespectful. He's only 43% rostered. Sort of like Andrew Abbott, he has two gray matchups next week, so he will be among my sleeper pitchers. Those matchups are... Not as good as Andrew Abbott's, frankly. I think Andrew Abbott's a better pitcher. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:34 Agreed on all three fronts. But I think Waka, like, we know, Waka's been around long enough. He's been doing this when that changeup is working, especially. He can be a really useful pitcher. It's not a, it's never an elite pitcher, but it's a pretty good one.
Starting point is 00:29:51 So I think he's a clear number one among that group. All right. We already spoke about Joe. Joey Estes for deeper leaguers out there and just wanted to mention a strong start from Brian Beow. I think we need to see more. This was obviously a great matchup against the Marlins. He threw six and two-thirds, one run, seven strikeouts, had 11 whiffs on 91 pitches. The matchups look okay for next week, Oakland and KC. Are you considering him, Scott, as a sleeper pitcher? Yeah, yeah. I mean, just if it was just the Oakland start on its own, I would have to.
Starting point is 00:30:24 so I shouldn't be scared away by the fact he has the second matchup that's not as favorable. But not a terrible one. Yeah. Which one is, what is it again? C. Casey. Casey. Casey, yeah. Yeah, no, he's going to be in there, I think. I think it's going to be all two-star pitchers, actually,
Starting point is 00:30:42 because unlike last week when there were no good two-star pitchers, this week, there are a lot of two-star pitchers that are available enough to mention and good enough to mention as two-start. sleepers, which unfortunately is going to make the list light on one-start sleepers, like a Michael Waka who matches up against the Cardinals. It's a good match-up. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:04 All right. Well, let's take our final break. And when we return, we will get into Gavin Williams' season debut. Wasn't really a good one. We'll talk about that right after this. Welcome back in. We had a whole batch of young pitchers not really pitch well here on Wednesday. And that leads things off with Gavin Williams, who got hit hard in his season.
Starting point is 00:31:24 debut in what is supposed to be a good matchup, up against the White Sox, four innings, seven hits, five runs, two walks, two strikeouts, completely changed his pitch mix in this one. Overall, a weird debut. Scott, what do you have on Gavin Williams? I was hoping you'd go to Chris because I know he had some interesting things to say. I'm just going to seat it to Chris and react to what he's like. Yeah, no, the biggest change here for Gavin Williams is that he went from throwing a slider as his number two pitch last season to not throwing a slider at all in this start. He introduced a cutter instead that came in about two to three miles per hour harder than his slider.
Starting point is 00:32:05 And it's interesting because the slider was his best pitch last season, at least in terms of results. 239 expected Woba 32% whiff rate. The curveball was a better whiff pitch. He throws that more in the chase zones anyway. So, you know, I think he made me. not be losing a ton of strikeout potential there, but it was interesting that he just didn't throw the slider at all. And the cutter, you know, didn't get a single whiff on eight pitches, generated a few foul balls. It generated an 87.3 mile per hour average X velocity, which isn't terrible, but isn't
Starting point is 00:32:41 great. I don't really understand the thought process here. And maybe it's something where coming back from that elbow injury, he just can't throw the slider. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe it's a bit of a calibration issue because his curveball looked a lot different. So maybe there's something where he was throwing two different breaking balls. Although I don't necessarily see like, you know, the curveball was 76 miles per hour. The slider was 84 last year. It says the curve ball was up. Yeah, it was up four miles per hour, which would basically be a different pitch.
Starting point is 00:33:19 And that's kind of midway between last year's curveball. slider velocity. So he may be on to something. And they didn't throw any change out, which was something he only threw 6% of the time. That might have just been, uh, you know, maybe the White Sox didn't have any lefties in the lineup. But all in all, I, I didn't see much reason to get excited about
Starting point is 00:33:37 this version of Gavin Williams. And maybe that's partially just that the results weren't good. But it's hard to ask for a softer landing spot than the White Sox. He's coming back from an elbow injury. Now, the velocity was great. 96.8 miles per hour. That was actually up 1.1 miles per hour from last season, but the overall approach did not look especially promising.
Starting point is 00:34:00 I'm not dropping Gavin Williams necessarily. I wouldn't drop him for Dean Kramer or Andrew Abbott. I would for Shane Baas, as we mentioned earlier, but it was a disappointing debut for Gavin Williams, even beyond the results. Yeah. So I will point out his last two rehab starts they look great and got plenty of whiffs,
Starting point is 00:34:23 got plenty of strikeouts. So the approach can work. It is strange because our thinking with Gavin Williams coming off his rookie season was oh, look how good the slider and curveball are. Maybe he should throw us fastball less and emphasize those more. And instead he just eliminated those.
Starting point is 00:34:43 It would appear from the data. And I wasn't able to find anything on the slider Having said that, the Guardians are one of the best organizations in terms of pitcher development, and this is as talented of an arm as they've had to develop in the years since they've had that reputation as one of the best organizations for pitching development. And I don't know if maybe the cutter was an attempt to make the fastball more effective. I don't know. I don't know. I'm not a pitching coach, and I'm reluctant to speak beyond my expertise here.
Starting point is 00:35:16 But I'm concerned, but I'm not going to write off Gavin Williams because of this. What's most frustrating about it in the short term is that he has two great matchups next week, Detroit and Tampa Bay. Yeah. In Tampa Bay, too, yeah. I think I got to have them pretty high on the sleeper pitchers list. You know, as good as Andrew Abbott's matchups are, I think I'd rather start. Gavin Williams with those two matches. It feels a little risky though.
Starting point is 00:35:50 It does. It does feel a little risky, but... I think I would, though. If you've held on to him, and the fact that his last two rehab starts were good, like you mentioned, with those matchups, I would do it, but it's risky.
Starting point is 00:36:02 I get it. Let's take a look at three other young pitchers who did not fare well on Wednesday. Christian Scott in his return to the majors at the Nationals, five and two-thirds innings, four runs, two walks to two strikeouts. Gavin Stone followed up his four-hirt. shutout with a clunker up against the debacks,
Starting point is 00:36:19 three innings, four runs, three walks, three strikeouts. And David Festa got hit hard versus the Tigers, five innings, seven runs. Did have six strikeouts, also gave up three homers in this start. Scott, anything that stood out for these three youngsters who struggled, Festa, Stone, and Christian Scott. Well, I think I mostly want to talk about Scott here because it was as long-awaited return to the major. and I'm not as certain he's quite the talent level of a Gavin Williams.
Starting point is 00:36:56 So I'm not going to grade him as harshly because of that. I think mainly what happened here is that in his four starts back in the minors, which were spaced out pretty well, they were clearly trying to limit his innings. The most pitches he threw in any of those four was 81. and Carlos Mendoza pushed him to 98 in this start. He had four shutout innings,
Starting point is 00:37:23 and then Mendoza left him out there into the sixth. So that seems like bad management. I say that's mostly what happened, because Scott also wasn't missing a lot of bats for the time he did pitch. He wound up with six whiffs on those 99 pitches, only one on the fastball, which he threw 53% of the time. This is a guy who has to get whiffs on his fastball.
Starting point is 00:37:49 That's my concern here, is that everything else kind of feels like it's going to settle in in the 20 to 25% whiff rate range, and he's going to need that fastball to be a 27, 28% whiff rate pitch to, I think, really be an above-average strikeout rate guy. And, you know, it hasn't been that for him so far at the major of the level, it was in the minors. You know, I don't know how good the non-fastball arsenal is.
Starting point is 00:38:20 And there's a lot of pitchers coming up like this. David Festa, I think, falls into a similar range. Hayden Birdsong is another one where it's just like good fastball. It needs to be a great fastball to work at the major league level. And I'm not sure all three of those guys have that yet. There's the same issue here too with Scott, who I think, needs to be picked up everywhere he's available. Baws first, but Scott too.
Starting point is 00:38:51 His matchups next week at Pittsburgh versus Colorado. Yeah, incredible. Yeah. How would you guys rank Boz, Williams, and Scott moving forward? Bob Williams and Scott. Yeah. I think that makes sense. There was one young pitcher who actually did pitch well and a name that we haven't talked
Starting point is 00:39:09 about, to be honest. I didn't really know who he was before today. K. Dare Montero, of the, the Tigers turned in his first quality start of his career at the twins, six and a third, two runs, four strikeouts, just eight whiffs on 80 pitches, and a pretty underwhelming minor league career. He was ranked as a seventh prospect in the Tigers organization, according to MLB pipeline. Scott, does this matter at all?
Starting point is 00:39:32 Cade Air Montero. Not right now. No, I mean, the minor league numbers, very high ERA 503, very high whip 17, 5.6 walks per I will note that in the little bit we've seen him in the major so far the change up and slider both have better than a 40% whiff rate so that that makes me think
Starting point is 00:39:55 there may be a path to to cater Montero finding success but it's we're a long way from seriously considering that I think. Can we go back just one note? Yep. Did you mention Gavin Stone
Starting point is 00:40:10 just didn't throw his change up in this one? I did. No, I looked at it. it. He normally throws a 26% of the time. He threw it 21% of the time. Okay. I thought it was his like fourth most used pitch. It was. It was. But the actual usage wasn't that different. Maybe I thought his, maybe I just felt like his change up usage was a little higher than that normally then, I guess. Yeah, maybe. Yeah. Yeah. I thought that was weird, but I guess not as notable as I, as I thought at first glance. Yeah, I think it's a classic example of
Starting point is 00:40:40 young pitcher coming off, best start of his career, you know, threw a lot of pitches. last time out. Yeah. So I think it's just a weird spot timing-wise here for Gavin Stone. Let's talk waiver wire hitters. And I think one of the top questions right now regarding the waiver wire, Mark Vientos or Noelvi-Marte, because I think both of these guys are really, really intriguing. They both hit home runs here on Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:41:04 Viantos, his 11th home run over his last nine games, he has 12 hits, five homers, 12 RBI, and Noel V. Marte, his first home run since returning from the suspension, 11.5 exit velocity and in six games since returning not great so far, four for 24 but he does have one homer, he has two steals. So he's already off and running. Chris, who would rather have Viantos or Marte?
Starting point is 00:41:29 I think Marte has the better fantasy profile because of the stolen bases. Viantos might be the better hitter right now, especially if what we've seen so far is true. But Marte was considered the better prospect. He's younger. He's much more athletic. I think the ceiling is much higher.
Starting point is 00:41:46 I'm not sure. It might be a point versus roto. I don't know that Viantos has an advantage over Marte, to be honest. And I really like Mark Vientas, as you'll hear about on Friday's podcast. But I guess I really like Marte, too. Trust him to keep the strikeouts down more. He hits the ball extremely hard, just like Vyentos does. He steals bases.
Starting point is 00:42:07 They both have issues elevating the ball. And I think Marte has more job security probably, too. So I don't actually think it's a close call. As much as I like Vientos, I think Marte is just... The thing for me with Marte is his minor league track record felt like a lot more... A lot of projection. Like the production was always pretty good, but never... Wow.
Starting point is 00:42:35 You know, it was like consistent low 800s OPSs with, you know, good stolen base totals and then good raw power and maybe trying to figure out a way to tap into the game power. Struggle at AAA, but obviously, you know, that's, you know, this year was a big part of that. But I think, like,
Starting point is 00:42:55 if you asked me who has a higher OPS the rest of the way, I would take Mark Viantos. He's been better at the major league level. We've seen, you know, a test case for what a successful version of Mark Vento looks like at the major league level, whereas Marte last year, well, he was good.
Starting point is 00:43:10 you know, a lot of it was a Babbat, stolen bases, he wasn't like a great hitter in the way that Mark Vientos legitimately has been a very, very good major league hitter this season. So I have a little more faith in the bat for Viantos right now.
Starting point is 00:43:27 I think in the long run, I expect Marte to be a better player and probably be a better hitter. But if you're just asking me who's a better hitter right now, I would take Viantos. All right, let's talk about Ryan O'Hern, who has turned things up recently last 13 games he's betting 340 with two homers 13 rbi and one steel overall this season
Starting point is 00:43:46 he's batting 2 94 with an 840 ops we know he's not going to play against left-handed pitching but you know strong side platoon in the middle of the orio's lineup that does have some fantasy value uh would you guys take ryan over her ryan o'hern over either of the names we mentioned yesterday andrew vaughan and nathaniel low no no no no no i wouldn't I might take him over Vaughan in like a daily lineups league just because I think when O'Hern's in the lineup, he's going to be better. But low especially,
Starting point is 00:44:20 like I said this yesterday. I think I think the Rangers lineup's going to be much better moving forward and he's going to really benefit from that. So I would take a low over both of them. It's totally because O'Hern doesn't play every day and the other two do. Yeah. No, I get that.
Starting point is 00:44:36 Three names that could matter at some point in shallower leagues. I don't think. they do yet, but some signs here. Masataka Yoshita has three straight multi-hit games. Luis Garcia had himself a big game, two for three with a double dung, four RBI, does have nine homers, 11 steals on the season. And Gabriel Moreno had a big game, three for five, with his fourth home run, two RBI. It's been a down season, to say the least, after a second half breakout last year. Moreno performed well in the postseason, obviously helped the debacks get to the World Series last year.
Starting point is 00:45:10 Yeah, do you guys disagree? I think these guys could matter at some point, but I don't think we're there yet. I mean, Yoshita, he's been super streaky in his MLB career so far, but like, I don't know, if you were relying on Alex Verdugo and he's gone completely ice cold for you, I think they're basically the same player. And Yoshita's hitting a little bit over the last couple of games.
Starting point is 00:45:35 So I might be willing to make a swap like that. Okay. Yeah, with Gabby Moreno, So he obviously needs to be rostered in two catcher leagues, but I don't think we're there yet in one catcher leagues, but it really wouldn't surprise me. Again, the way he had that second half breakout last year, I think it's possible we could see that again in the second half this year. He's one of about 25 catchers who could be a top 12 catcher the rest of the way. One name in deeper leagues. Keep an eye on him. Rowdy to Les has quietly been doing some things.
Starting point is 00:46:04 Three for four with his fifth home run. Last 22 games, he's batting 361 with four homers. 16 RBI and OPS over 900. And you know, Chris, we like them big beefy baseball boys. We do. We're rooting for Rowdy Tellez to get it going here. Start, sit, or drop. What do we do with these three confusing pitchers?
Starting point is 00:46:25 Ryan Pepeyo, what is going on? At the Royals, four innings, two runs, three walks to zero strikeouts, eight starts since returning from the IL. Ryan Pepeio has a 508 ERA, a 131 whip. Chris, start, sit, or drop. Ryan Pepio. I'm so annoyed at myself because I've been pretty skeptical of Pepio.
Starting point is 00:46:48 And then there was a point about six starts ago where I looked at the data and I was like, you know what? I'm kind of buying in. This guy at the time had like a low three's XERA and was getting a bunch of strikeouts. And the walks were pretty good. And then it's kind of gone south for him. And I think the reason why is exactly what I was. was worried about earlier in the season. He was relevant to the conversation we had about
Starting point is 00:47:15 Christian Scott and all those guys. His fastball was hyper elite early on. In the month of April, he had a 41% whiff rate with his four-seem fastball. He was allowing a 21-18 expected wobo with the pitch. Those are numbers that you expect to see from a really good slider. You go 41% whiff rate. The leader in four-seem whiff rate last year was Luis Castillo among starters. And it was like 33%. Well, Ryan Pepio in May had a 25% whiff rate with his four-seem fastball, 296 expected woba.
Starting point is 00:47:51 Good pitch, but not elite. So far in June before today, he only had one whiff with the pitch. So it's going to go down. 31% whiff rate in June 314 expected woba. Those are good numbers for us four-seem fastball. but they're not carrying the arsenal the way they were earlier. And he just has not shown the ability to get strikeouts and whiffs consistently with the rest of his pitches, which is weird because his change-up was supposed to be a really, really good pitch.
Starting point is 00:48:18 It was supposed to be like Gavin Stones. And it hasn't been that for him. And so to answer the what, start, sit, or drop, I would drop him for Shane Boss. For sure. I don't know about any of the other pitchers we've talked about today. I mean, who's he got versus the Yankees in Cleveland next week? Outside of head-to-head points leagues where he's an RP, which really helps the value,
Starting point is 00:48:44 I would consider it. No, I wouldn't do that for Andrew Abbott. That would be dumb. But, like, I think Andrew Ibel will be better next week, and that might be all that matters at this point with Ryan Pepio, is what can he do for me right now? Because the upside seems to have gone away. Well, I don't know that I totally agree.
Starting point is 00:49:05 clearly it's been a rough patch apart from last start at Seattle where he allowed one hit and struck out eight that's obviously the exception but there was that eight strikeout effort there was a nine strikeout effort on June 10th there was another eight strikeout effort on June 4th there was seven strikeouts in five and two thirds
Starting point is 00:49:24 innings the start before that like he's still getting strikeouts I think a big problem has been walks another big problem has been home runs. The walks, though, are something that we've seen him avoid for long stretches. And I think that'll improve.
Starting point is 00:49:46 I don't know about the home runs. He may continue to face issues with those. I don't know. I think in the long run, he still belongs on all 12 team rosters. It's just obviously not the consistency that he was shown. not, he's not going to deliver the consistency he was at the start of the year. But you're still going to be happy to have him around for matchups and other times when he gets hot. I suspect he'll get hot again.
Starting point is 00:50:15 Yeah, I think it's a sit right now for Pepio. And yeah, him versus Shane Bos is close. I don't know that I'd be, I'd drop Ryan Pepio. But yeah, of those three options, I would, I think I would just sit him for now. Boss clearly has more upside. I think that's clear. But yeah, we don't know exactly how it's going to go for him as he's reintroduced the major, so it's, I'd probably keep Pepio ranked ahead.
Starting point is 00:50:38 Carlos Rodon looked better, but still doomed by the long ball up against the Reds, five and a third, three runs allowed, had eight strikeouts, gave up two homers in this start, completely changed his pitch mix, lowered his fastball usage from 52% to 26%. Lean on those secondary pitches more, still gave up lots of hard contact on the fastball, so that remains a problem here. Scott, where you at, start, sit, or drop, Carlos Rodon. Well, I'm not going to drop him. I guess I'm continuing to sit him. Maybe not in points league since he has a two-star week coming up at Tampa Bay, at Baltimore.
Starting point is 00:51:16 One good matchup, one bad. But at Baltimore, his biggest problem lately has been home runs. And that might turn out okay if he avoids the long ball. You know, at first glance, I was inclined to be encouraged by the star. You got 15 swinging strikes. He got eight strikeouts in five and a third innings. It's just two outs away from a quality start. But he'd been getting whiffs all this time.
Starting point is 00:51:42 The main thing, he's still allowed two home runs, seven in his last three starts. That's really the stretch we're talking about where he's been awful. I don't know. It may be kind of like Pepio, where we're just getting to a point in the season where players are hitting more home runs. And these pitchers are showing these pitchers who were always vulnerable to home runs aren't falling victim to it more now. And we're finding out they're not quite as reliable as we once thought they were.
Starting point is 00:52:10 Last name on this list is Yusay Kikuchi. He had a mixed start up against the Astros. Five and two-thirds, two runs loud, five strikeouts, had 13 whiffs on 95 pitches. So that's the good. The bad is that he gave up 10 hard hits with a 93.7 average exit velocity against. Previous seven starts for Kukuchi entering this one,
Starting point is 00:52:31 a 712 ERA, a 168 whip. Chris, where you at on Kikuchi? Start, sit, or drop? I think I lean towards sit with him as well. I would certainly, I think him versus Pepio is an interesting conversation. I think you could talk me into dropping either of them for Shane Boz, just because I think the upside outcome is a little higher, and Shane Boz isn't currently in the majors in struggling,
Starting point is 00:52:58 which I don't know if that's the greatest logic of all time, but that's where we are. Kukuchi, he threw the change up a little more in this one, and that's a pitch that he's put in a lot of work to reinvent this season. And it's been his best whiff pitch, 36% whiff rate. Everything else has been significantly worse, especially the slider and curveball. So I don't know.
Starting point is 00:53:20 I want to believe, I want to keep the faith. I like the overall approach and Arsenal. But yeah, it's, you know, after really like a full calendar year, of pitching really, really well. You think Gacucci's been pretty bad since the start of June. So I'm not at the point where I'm dropping him necessarily,
Starting point is 00:53:40 but certainly sitting. All right, let's get into some leftovers and the pitchers. Chris Sale, awesome. Again, this time up against the Giants, six innings, one run, nine strikeouts with 13 whiffs on 103 pitches. Zach Wheeler, a solid start at the Cubs, six innings, two runs,
Starting point is 00:53:58 seven strikeouts. He had 13 whiffs on 102, pitches, Shota Imanaga, a quality start up against the Phillies, six innings, three runs, eight strikeouts, did allow two more homers, which means he's now allowed nine home runs in his past seven starts, and Eric Fetty continues to produce quality starts. This one at the Guardians, six innings, one run, three walks to three strikeouts. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of 18 starts. Scott, anything that stood out here from Fetty, Imanaga, Wheeler, and Chris Sale. Yeah, I have some things to say
Starting point is 00:54:33 about a couple of these guys, and maybe not the ones you're expecting. Chris Sale, no, I'll get to him in a minute. Zach Wheeler, if you look at his month-by-month breakdown, he keeps getting worse, and specifically with the strikeout rate.
Starting point is 00:54:51 So in June, 7.6K per 9. That was after 9.7 in May, 11.1 in April. Remember, it started the season. and Zach Wheeler looked like, he was headed toward an obvious Cy Young season.
Starting point is 00:55:06 What he was doing in April was mixing in this new splitter that everyone was talking up in spring training. He was throwing it like 12% of the time. It got a bunch of whiffs. And he's just kind of abandoned it in the month's sense. And, oh, he's Zach Wheeler. He's going to be fine.
Starting point is 00:55:22 But I'm disappointed in the way it's playing out because he looked like a total world-beater early on. And then Chris Sale, I'm not so sure he's not just the best pitcher in fantasy. I was thinking through this when I was putting together the redraft of the first two rounds the other day. Wanted to get a few pitchers in there. Terrick Scoobel is who I ended up putting number one, Zach Wheeler, two, Corbyn Burns, three. Those two mostly just because you know they're going to be durable in the second half when a lot of pitchers break down.
Starting point is 00:55:55 But if I could count on sale being durable, and I guess I could say the same, thing for Tyler Glass now. They'd be one and two in some order. I think the biggest thing that I would say for sale, and this is something we talked about in tomorrow's podcast that we recorded earlier today with Reynaldo Lopez is I think this was the second time Chris Sale has pitched on regular rest all season.
Starting point is 00:56:20 And so he has made one fewer start than most other pitchers, two fewer starts than most of the other aces. He's still below 100 innings. He's like 23rd or 24th innings pitched after this start. So on a per inning basis, I think there's very little to argue against with Chris Sale. He looks like Chris Sale, but if he's going to throw 175, 180 innings and Terrick Scuegel is going to throw 190, then I'd probably still take Terrick Scoobal, who I don't think is worse than Chris Sale, certainly. And I'm not sure, like, Zach Wheeler's not going to get to... I think he's a little worse with strikeouts than Sale. So far this season, it's been, yeah, about a strikeout per inning less. And I would
Starting point is 00:57:11 guess, I'd have to open the game logs for sure, but I would guess Sale has more starts of seven plus. Uh, yeah, he's only thrown four fewer innings in, uh, one fewer starts. So I'd guess he's gone deeper more consistently. But yeah, I think Chris Sale just, there's a little more flameout potential with him than certainly with Zach Wheeler, who we know. That's ultimately why I rank up behind those two. I wish I didn't have to account for that. I think, yeah, I have it Wheeler, Scoobel, Burns, Glass Now, Sale.
Starting point is 00:57:45 And the top three made my re-ranking the first two rounds. Glass Now and Sale, I think we're just outside. I also have Paul Skeens as a top 30 overall player right now. So he's not far behind either. Each of us have the same five pitchers in our top five. We just all have a different order. But yeah, it makes sense. Some order of Wheeler, Glass Now, Scoobel, Burns, and Sale.
Starting point is 00:58:10 It could have been all three of us top six. But for some reason, Chris didn't want to put Cole Regens as his SP6. So you got to work on that, Chris. Paul Skeens is better. Ah, come on. Some hitting leftovers, three names. who are picking things back up. ESOC Paratus, last seven games,
Starting point is 00:58:25 269 batting average, three homers, seven RBI. Vinnie Pass Guantino, last nine games, batting 371 with three homers and 10 RBI. Brent Rooker last seven games, batting 370 with four homers and one steel.
Starting point is 00:58:39 The rest of the hitting leftovers, Yordon Alvarez, make it three days in a row with a home run. Yiner Diaz. Remember when Yardon was having a disappointing season like five days ago? I think I said those exact words. feels like it's been a letdown.
Starting point is 00:58:53 No, I mean, I wrote, I wrote about him a couple days ago in the newsletter, and that was like, he hasn't been quite as good as we're used to. And it's like, all right, well, now he's on a, it's 36 homer pace and a ton of RBI, and yeah, he's, he's amazing. Yeah, sounds right. Yiner Diaz has turned things around since the start of June.
Starting point is 00:59:12 If you remember late May, he got benched for like two or three days. Since that benching, last 23 games, 348 batting average, four homers, 21 RBI for Yiner Diaz. Alec Bohm continued his breakout season, two for four with his 11th home run. Riley Green had himself a big old day. Three for four with a triple and his 16th homer.
Starting point is 00:59:33 Christian Yelich keeps on hitting. Two for three with a walk, a double, and his ninth home run. And Christian Walker, this guy loves hitting. He loves hitting in Los Angeles. Four for five with a double dong, three runs for RBI. Lots going on here.
Starting point is 00:59:50 Anything you want to comments on. I just want to get, yeah, Christian Walker in his career has played 41 games at Dodger Stadium. He has a 1053 OPS entering today when he had what, four hits and two home runs. You know, he has 17 home runs and 14, 41 games at Dodger Stadium. That's pretty bonkers. Yeah, and go ahead. Chris, I'm changing the subject a little bit. So if you want to follow up there. No, no, it's all good. Okay. Christian Yelich, Chris keeps pressuring me to move him into my top eight outfielders. And so I dug a little deeper into him today to see what's going on.
Starting point is 01:00:32 He's still a ton of ground balls. But he is pulling his fly balls about twice as often this year. Still not a high pull rate on fly balls, but twice as often as his very low fly ball rate. And a similar pull rate on fly balls to his MVP. and near MVP seasons. You know, we're seeing a little more power production. Obviously, he's running a lot more that started last year with the change to the stolen base rules
Starting point is 01:00:58 and the expected batting average mostly backs up the actual batting average of 33. I guess my main hesitation with Christian Yellich is he's going to go on the aisle with a back issue at some point, right? I mean, he got it out of the way, right? No, I mean, that's fair. But for me, it's not should we take Christian Yalach at face value. For me, it's comparing him to Corbyn Carroll, comparing him to Luis Robert, who has his own.
Starting point is 01:01:31 Yeah, I have a man of Roberts. So who do you? I guess it's just Carol. Yeah. And fair enough, I mean, I don't think anybody would blame me for moving Carol behind any of the 15 outfielders. have ranked behind them. But yeah, I don't know. I'm just,
Starting point is 01:01:52 I'm just not ready to totally endorse Yelich as a super stud outfielder, I guess is the main thing. Yeah, I think there will be some regression from where he's at right now. He's on like a 27 homer, legitimately like a 50 stolen base pace. It's kind of bonkers.
Starting point is 01:02:12 He has 19 steals and 61 games. There will be some regression. He's not going to hit, you know, 333 the rest of the way he's probably more of a 285 280 hitter um but it's mostly just i don't have any faith in corbin carol being that elite player anymore well i did go that far with jaron duran i moved him up past yellage past carroll i didn't i i tried to find reasons to to ding duran i couldn't like it looks pretty unimpeachable what he's doing right now Mm-hmm. Yeah. I think one of probably the biggest breakout outfielder so far this season.
Starting point is 01:02:54 I mean, Stephen Kwan's been really awesome too, but yeah, shout out to Jaron Duran. Some bullpen updates for the Nationals. Kyle Finnegan pitched a clean ninth for his 23rd save for the Cardinals with Ryan Helsley. Unavailable, Andrew Kittredge pitched a clean ninth with the game tied. The Cardinals took the lead in the top of the 10th. Kittridge came out for the bottom of the 10th. He struck out one, then walked the next batter. He was relieved by Jojo Romero, who gave up Back-to-back RBI singles, he took his fourth-blown save on the other side for the Pirates. Aroldus Chapman pitched two innings across the 9th and the 10th. He did allow that zombie runner to score, but he wound up with the win.
Starting point is 01:03:30 For the Reds, Alexis Diaz walked one but picked up his 19th save. For the Atlanta Braves, Reisel Iglesias, picked up his 21st save. For the Phillies, Jose Alvarado back in the ninth inning. With a two-run lead, he gave up a hit, but picked up his 13th save. for the Royals. James MacArthur got the final five outs for his 15th save. For the Padres, Robert Suarez, recorded the final four outs, two via strikeout, for his 21st save. And for the Orioles, Craig Kimbril struck out two for his 21st save. Remember that little blip where he was out of the closer roll for a little bit?
Starting point is 01:04:07 I mean, ever since then, he has been lights out. Yeah, and he's up to 21 saves. So a pretty awesome season here for Craig Kimball. To stream or not to stream on Thursday, 4th of July. Who do we have? Some options. Ben Lively up against the White Sox. We have Jose Cantana at the Nationals.
Starting point is 01:04:26 Andre Palante at the Pirates. Frankie Montas at the Yankees. J.P. Sears versus the Angels. Alec. I think Alex Marsh. Alec against the Reyes is my third choice behind the first two. You mentioned Ben Lively against the White Sox and Jose Cantana at the Nationals,
Starting point is 01:04:42 who are especially bad against lefties. Agreed. On Friday, some potential options. We have Drew Thorpe, who is at the Marlins. We have Reese Olson at the Reds, Carson Spires versus the Tigers, and Michael Lorenzen versus the Rays. Olson, by far. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:05:04 They're worse against Ritees, I believe. And I think I would go Thorpe and Lorenzen as the next two. Yes, you didn't mention Thorpe. But Marlins. Yeah, I mentioned. Yeah. Okay. Okay.
Starting point is 01:05:16 Yeah. So I think I would go Olson, Thorpe, and then I kind of like what Spires is doing. It's a good matchup against the Tigers, too. So I think he's fine. Reminder, we're not live tomorrow again. Happy Fourth of July. Everyone out there, please be safe. Be careful.
Starting point is 01:05:30 Chris, happy birthday to you. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in some fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.

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