Fantasy Baseball Today - Bryce Miller Breakout & Buy-Low Trade Targets! (7/3 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 3, 2026

This is the best version of Bryce Miller that we've seen (2:52). ... Ian Seymour looks legit (11:09). ... News (17:42): Julio Rodriguez left early after getting hit in the helmet. ... These 3 pitchers might be cooked (24:34). ... We keep talking about these hitters (34:55). ... Walbert Ureña looked unhittable (42:09). ... These are our favorite buy-low targets for the second half (48:30). ... Happy Birthday, Chris (1:01:30)! ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpens and streamers (1:03:40).Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for the newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters

Hi, Chris's birthday Friday. Good. And so fantasy baseball today on July 3rd. I am Frank Stample joined by Chris Towers. Today on the show, we have trade targets who will provide fireworks in the second half of the season. I have three starting pitchers who might be cooked. And I'm fairly certain this is the best version of Bryce Miller that we have ever seen. Chris, the birthday boy.

Birthday here on Saturday. Happy birthday, bud. What is the plan? Actually, we know the plan. What song are you singing at karaoke? Oh, I got a whole list of new ones that I've never done. We got Deborah by Beck. I'm going to see if I can do a little falsetto.

Don't know that one. Little Goodbye Earl by the Chicks. Okay. Everywhere by Michelle Branch. I might break out all my life by Casey and Jojo. I got a whole list. We'll see what the vibe is. But that's obviously I'm going doing karaoke for my birthday.

I got some friends coming into town. Should be a good time. Looking forward to it. I went to a concert tonight. So there's lots. It's ready to go. Oh, yeah. I'm tired.

So I knew Beck from just one song, Loser, obviously. They're probably their most popular song. I don't know that I know another song by them. Did you ever see Baby Driver? You probably didn't. Maybe driver. I don't think so.

I feel like you brought this up recently. John Bernthal, it's an Edgar, right? It's a great movie. Real fun. I have not seen it, but I remember looking this up recently because you asked me about it.

Real, real good movie and that song's in there. It's a weird song. I don't know if I can do it. To be clear, it might be a disaster. He gets real high up in the register, but I'm going to try it.

If you sing all my life by Casey and Jo, please have your wife at least film part of it because that was my wedding song and I would love to see a video of you. Oh man, I'm definitely doing it now. Yes, that would be amazing. All right, let's talk about players of the night. We'll get to all the fun stuff a little bit later on.

Let's jump in. All right, Chris, we had some big pitching performances here on Thursday and I will let you kick it off, man. Bryce Miller, dude looks like a stud. Yeah, I think that that was the wrong audio drop for this because I believe it. Bryce Miller is just, he's mowing people down.

I mean, he had a career high in strikeouts in his previous start. 11 goes out this time around. Not as good strikeout stuff, but pitched even better. Seven shutout innings against the Angels, eight strikeouts, no walks. That is four straight starts without a walk, during which time he has 33 strikeouts. The start before that, he did walk two. He had nine strikeouts in six shutout innings. The ERA is down to 171.

The XERA is around 220. He is generating tons of strikeouts. He is barely walking anybody. He's not giving up any hard contact. I don't think Bryce Miller will pitch this well moving forward because if he does, that means he's the best pitcher in baseball, right? Like we're legitimately talking about he has a 30% strikeout to walk ratio entering this start. It's got to be even higher now.

that's probably not going to sustain. I think that's like what Jacob de Grom was doing at his best. I don't think Bryce Miller's that good. I think he's really good, though. And, you know, he's doing this right now with the best foreseamer of his career. It's always been a good one. But now he's just generating so much we contact. The splitter has just become an absolute monster pitch for him.

He threw it as his primary pitch today, what was 40% got seven whiffs, only three balls in play, only one of them hard hit. The four seamer, 83.6 mile per hour, average exit velocity. The rest of the arsenal is all generating whiffs as well. He was a top 10 pitcher in fantasy in 2024. And we didn't really buy it. You know, the strikeout rate was pretty pedestrian that season. I think we all looked at that and said, yeah, he's good, but probably more like a high three or mid-threes ERA guy. Last year, I just think he wasn't healthy.

Bryce Miller's clearly healthy. And yeah, I think this is absolutely the best version of him we've seen. Look, he's probably more like a three-something ERA guy. But now I think it's probably more like a 320 or better ERA moving forward. and yeah, I think Bryce Miller might just be a top 20 starting pitcher in fantasy, and maybe that might not be giving him enough credit. I'm right there with you, man. The updated K-minus walk rate, by the way, 30.5% trailing only Jacob Miziarowski on the season.

So Bryce Miller, just absolutely fantastic stuff right now, throwing a ton of strikes through 73% of his pitches for strikes in this one. and he has seven or more strikeouts in five straight outings. He has two total walks during that span. He is just ridiculous. The swinging strike rate, last year, 10.6% when he wasn't right, even when he was at his best,

it was like around 11, 11.5%. This year it's up to 14% on the season. He's giving up more fly balls, but the average EV, the barrel rate, are both career bests for Bryce Miller on the season. There will be some regression at some point, just like some of the underlying stuff,

a 204 BABIP, a 99% left on base percentage. Like those things are not sustainable. So look, he's not going to have a sub 2ERA. I think everyone understands that. But this is clearly the best version of Bryce Miller that we've ever seen before. Just hope that they don't really continue to do this piggyback thing. And it doesn't sound like they will.

They're saying this weekend it's going to be Emerson Hancock with Logan Gilbert. I just hope once we get to the All-Star break, it's like, let's just figure out who, are our five best pitchers. If Hancock or East Castillo has to go to the bullpen, look, overall it probably won't affect Bryce Miller that much. But if there's a start here or there

where he has to be piggybacked or he's the piggyback guy, it just kind of puts a little bit of a cap on his ceiling for this season. But if they don't, he's amazing. And the way Emerson Hancock is trending, that problem might take care of itself. It is a legitimate problem for the people who want to see K. I just, I have a really hard time seeing how that works. They need two guys to get out of the way.

What? Unless there's an injury. I mean, but, but even then, there's six starting pitchers right now. They need like an injury and a trade or two. Like it's just, it's really hard to make that work, unfortunately, because I'm, I'm as excited about Kate Anderson as anybody, but. Yeah. Well, not necessarily.

That's not true. I've seen some people say they think he's already like a top 10 pitcher in the majors. and that's, I think we're taking it too far. But I am excited by Kate Anderson. I don't, it's hard to see where he fits in in this rotation, unfortunately. I updated the rankings over the past couple days. And I have Bryce Miller at SP 27. That just feels like it needs to be higher.

I moved into 20 just now. I was looking at SP 20 exactly that range. That would put him just ahead of Noel McLean, Kyle Harrison, and Parker Messick. Would you be on board? Kyle Harrison's tough because obviously he's having a breakout season too. those guys to just be back to back, both top 20 pitches. Yeah, I think Miller has a longer track record. I don't know.

Are there less injury concerns with Miller? He did have bone spurs in his elbow that he didn't get removed last year. So that could become a problem at some point. I don't know. Yeah, I feel a little more confident in Bryce Miller. And for what it's worth in a points league, I think I'd have Nolan McLean a little higher than Miller as well. I just feel a little more confident about him going deep into games consistently.

but yeah, on the whole, I think that's the right range. Whether you want to go 20 or 25, I'm not going to quibble, you know? Yeah, and you mentioned some of the injury stuff that Bryce Miller dealt with last year, and we just talked, there will be some regression. So there is a sell high case made for Bryce Miller right now, but. You got to get a real. The way pitching is trending right now, and we've seen like even some of the best pitchers in baseball, I've had some blow-up starts recently.

I don't know that I would do it. Like, if I have Bryce Miller on my team, I would have to really be blown away to think about moving him. And maybe I'll come to regret that. But I kind of just think I would hold on. Go reach out to the Paul Skeens guy and see if you could do something like that. You know, Bryce Miller plus something for Paul Skeens. I think that's worth trying.

Look, I understand there are some concerning signs there with Paul Skeens. The velocity's been down. The spin rate was way down in this start as well. it's still Paul Skeens, you know? Like if he's right, you'd much rather have him than Bryce Miller. So I don't want to overreact to the Paul Skeens thing. I sent you and Scott a.

Yeah, I read that. And let me see if I can pull it up. But it was John Bowman, who used to work with us at CBS Sports, actually. Yeah. So he pointed out one of the first things I asked when I walked into the high performance department with the Blue Jays, what's the best indicator of injury?

It's four-seeing fast. fastball spin rate decrease. And basically as a season has gone on, it just keeps dropping for Paul Skeens. And it was down to 1,987 RPM on the fastball. Super low for a four seamer, yeah. On his, in his most recent start on July 1st.

And that was like pretty clearly the lowest of the season. Now, I don't want to alarm everybody. It's one start. But, you know, it is something that is trending down, his spin rate. So like, we're trying to all collectively figure out what is going all with Paul Skeens. And right now, that is one thing that is standing out. His velocity has been dropping a little bit, and his spin rates have been dropping as well.

I hope it's nothing. I hope it's not injury related. But whenever you throw that hard, you can never rule it out. Sure. We've something to monitor. We'll pack that one away for Paul Skeens. My player of the night is going to be Ian Seymour, who was great once again this time at the Royals, six innings of one run ball, eight strikeouts to one walk.

He had 15 whiffs on 80. three pitches, seven on that sweeper, four on the fastball, three on the changeup. And he used his sweeper and has four seen more in this one. Both of those pitches were really good for him. And he's just looked really good. In five games, three starts since being stretched out recently. 252 ERA, a 0.76 whip, 27 strikeouts to six walks over 25 innings. And I mentioned this before.

I'll mention it again. I liked Ian Seymour a lot this all season and I was pretty bummed when I found out he was going to be in the bullpen for the 10th year raise obviously I understand things change throughout the course of the season and plans change and people get hurt and so obviously Ian Seymour has found his way into the rotation here

34% rostered he's a spark for those who play in points leagues lined up for two starts against the Yankees and the Mariners next week so absolutely need to add him for those matchups, but I kind of just think Ian Seymour is a legit, good pitcher. And I know that we're kind of like reacting in real time to all these waiver wire pitchers we've talked about recently, the Troy Melton's and Joey Cantillo's and Tatsui Imais.

Some of them have fallen on hard times. I think I would put Ian Seymour at the top of that list. Um, hmm. Yeah. Well, well, I think Troy Melton's really close. I would put the two of those. Rodgers has been really good lately too. Yeah, I would put Melton and Seymour. Certainly, I had to be my.

We can, I think we're done with that one. And that was something we talked about when he started pitching well was like, well, there wasn't really a good explanation for it besides he started pitching well, you know, which is always hairy. Like Bryce Miller, velocity's up. He's been good before. I think it's just he's healthy. Tatum, I was like, well, you know, you can tell yourself the story about him getting settled in and not being comfortable early on, but two of his last four starts have been disasters.

So I think you can be pretty skeptical of it. Seymour, we had a really successful run last season. Obviously, this season was a little rockier, especially out of the bullpen, but he's looked really good since getting back to the rotation. He misses a lot of bats. He's got a four seamer that limits damage. He's got a change up that misses bat. That's the sweeper, has all of a sudden become a real weapon after he barely used it last year. I think he and Seymour's good.

And I think there will be some headaches being a member of the race because he got to through six innings, but it was only like 70. That was 83 pitches. They let him go a little bit lately. Yeah. Yeah, his previous outing, he went up to like almost 90, didn't he? So yeah, I'm, I think he didn't see more. Look, he threw 90 pitches in his last outing.

80 or more pitches in three straight. So it's pretty encouraging, I would say. It's really tough. It's really tough because all of these pitchers, we have very small sample sizes on. And I never, I don't want to just flip, flop back and forth and react to every good or bad start and say, ah, he's a must, must, must roster.

And now he's a must try. I don't, I don't want to do that. But you kind of have to. Like, that's the whole thing with pitchers is their fortunes can change so quickly, positively or negatively, that you do kind of have to overreact when they show interesting skills. I'm not talking about like a Michael McGreevy where he's outperforming his peripherals by like two runs. But when guys are showing legitimate skills like Ian Seymour is, missing a lot of bats, limiting hard contact, I think there is value in just overreacting

even knowing that, yeah, the likeliest outcome is this is just a pretty good pitcher rather than a dominant one. Yeah. Look, it's a good point that you bring up too. I definitely don't want to flip-flop too much. But that's why if people have ever wondered, we talk about pitching more than anything else on this podcast on a daily basis because that's what you could take more away from on a daily basis is so much can change in one start for a pitcher where not that much can change

for a hitter in just one game, right? Like they're going to play 162 of them and most pitchers are only going to make 30 starts in a season. So there's just, there's much more. to react to on a daily basis with pitchers than it is with hitters, unless, of course, you're Danesby Swanson and you're putting up like three homers and eight RBI in a game. But that is why we tend to focus a lot on pitching here. The updated stats, by the way, for Ian Seymour, he's now made nine career starts,

316 ERA.98 whip, 10.7K per 9, 1.9 walks per 9. And that dates back to last year. So whenever he's been given an opportunity to start, he's looked really good. And was excellent throughout his minor league career. Huge strikeout numbers, like a 34% strikeout rate guy last year. So, yeah, he might just be good. All right. Before we hit our first break, just a reminder of the Week 16 Sleepers and two-star

pitcher articles from Scott are live on the website. And our FBT Express episode covering Week 16 will be out on Saturday, July 4th. I know many people will be busy, but check in on that either on the 4th of July the next day before setting your lineups here on Monday. Let's take our first break when we return. We'll hit the news and notes. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back, fantasy baseball today.

Those did not see. We were just in a commercial break. I had to run, take my cat, and throw her out of the room. I told me, not literally throw, you know. No, no, gently place her out of the room. But I was experimenting today because when I started the podcast, she was napping in the corner. I usually never let her in the room while I'm podcasting,

because I just don't know what she's going to do. You know, she's kind of a wild card. And then she started, once I started up, and I'm yelling and I'm screaming about Ian Seymour, she's, you know, scratching my closet and she's going all this kind of crazy stuff. What's with the closet? Why do they always want to go in the closet? What's up with that?

They just want to do everything they're not supposed to do. So if you have a closet that's locked, they're going to try to get in it. Meanwhile, I've got a mosquito in here. This is a disaster. What is wildlife doing to us? Here we go. This is a,

This is a Friday podcast for you. Let's hit the news and notes. Julio Rodriguez left in the third inning after taking a throw off the back of his helmet earlier in the game. So I'm sure he'll go for some type of concussion testing. Something to watch there with Julio Rodriguez. We both have him as a player to buy

heading into the second half of the season. So hopefully he's all right. Victor Robles also left early with a right forearm injury. So he came in for J. Rod. And then he also left with an injury, which resulted in Luke Rayleigh playing center field. I was watching this game. I saw a fly ball.

the center field. I said, who the heck is playing center field? This is crazy. Luke Rayleigh. Yeah, that one called me off guard, but I guess it just had nobody else he used. So that's what happened. But yeah, hopefully, hopefully Jayrod is all right. Wilson Contreras and Kate Cavalli were both given seven

game suspensions for their benches clearing fiasco earlier in the week. And I saw Contreras got a fine as well for throwing his helmet. It's interesting because I don't know. I haven't seen if either of them or both of them are going to appeal, but Cade Cavali was supposed to be a two-star pitcher for next week.

So depending on when he starts this suspension, he probably will not be a two-star pitcher next week. Yeah, I don't think he will be because suspensions are usually lowered in appeals. I won't say always, but it feels like that happens pretty regularly. But sometimes it takes a few weeks to like hear from it though. But they're never taken away. And I think whatever you do is you just appeal. until his next turn and the rotation is up,

and then drop the appeal and start serving the suspension after he makes his next start because the All-Star breaks coming up anyway. So you could end up having him miss effectively zero starts. So I would guess that's probably what they're going to do. And I think deservedly for both of them suspended. Miles Michaelis was also suspended five games and someone else is suspended for a couple of games as well. All right. Munitaka Morikami, we kind of.

of have an update. He's viewed as day-to-day with that hamstring injury. Apparently, he's sprinting at about 85%, but they haven't yet revealed when he will go out on a rehab assignment. So we're starting to hear a little bit more about it. We're getting, you know, numbers, 85% health at this point.

But he'll need a rehab assignment. My guess is he's probably back after the All-Star break, just kind of conservatively guessing here on Morikami. Dustin May left after recording just two outs after taking a line drive off of his right ankle. X-rays came back negative and unfortunately he was charged with five earned runs on five hits and two walks before

leaving it's been a really weird go of things lately for dust and may i i don't think people should drop him chris i understand that he was on this crazy run which was most likely unsustainable for dustin may but his last couple starts like one of them came after the complete game where he threw a bunch of pitches and then he had a back injury and now he left early with this ankle and it was a bad start so i think people are going to look at the game log and just kind of think maybe I could just get rid of Dustin May. I think I would still hold on to him. Yeah, I mean, I do have a league where I just traded him for Caleb Killian.

You must need saves. I really need saves. I have like 18 saves on the season and that's my biggest drag. So I did make that trade. It's also just a league where that guy's annoying to deal with. I've talked about this in the past with you, maybe not on the air. But you can't give in though, Chris. I know. I'm bad about that, but whatever.

But that is to say, I think Dustin A's mostly just a guy. So I had to choose between him or Roki Sasaki. I'm not sure I made the right choice there. Roki Sasaki looks pretty bad too. But I think Sasaki has more upside at least. So I don't think Dustin May certainly as bad as the, what, 11 earned runs in two and three in the third innings, I think over the last two starts. he's not that bad, but I don't think he's as good as the 13 starts prior to that either.

I think it's like weird the way it's worked out, but his overall numbers are probably not that far off from where I'd expect him to be. I guess his ERA is probably super high. What is, I didn't actually write down what the ERA is up to after this one. Like 480 now, right? Yeah, oh, 4A exactly. That was good. Wow.

I think he's better than a 480 pitcher. I think the most likely outcome is that he is a streamer type, but he has made changes this season to the pitch mix, and he has a really, really good defense behind him with the Cardinals. So I still think we're going to get a lot of very useful starts from Dustin May in the second half of the season. Connolly Early,

who went on the aisle Wednesday, was diagnosed with a left posterior elbow inflammation, not with a with just left posterior elbow. I guess just that would be A. You only has one left posterior elbow. Yeah, that's true. Do you have anything on this injury type, Chris, or how long we might be looking at a timeline for Connolly Early?

I mean, it sounds like there was no structural damage. So I would think something like a month. You know, just anytime you're dealing with any kind of elbow, even relatively minor, that's probably the timeline. Yeah. Yeah. Moogie Betts was back in the lineup after missing Wednesday with wrist soreness. He had at least a couple of hits in that game when I last checked.

Salvador Perez was out of the lineup Thursday due to a sore left elbow. Brandon Nimmo was out again, making that four games in a row with that AC joint sprain in his left shoulder. Chris Bubich received a cortisone injection Thursday and will be shut down from throwing for 7 to 10 days before a reevaluation. I'm starting to get the feeling we might not get anything else from Chris Bubis to rest of the way. Emerson Hancock is scheduled to piggyback Logan Gilbert on Saturday, but they said the same thing last week, so who knows? Grant Holmes will start Friday against the Mets, even though it sounded just a couple days ago like he would remain in the bullpen, but now scheduled to start on Friday. Connor prelip will have his next turn in the rotation skipped as the Twins monitor his workload. And Yankees pitching prospect, Carlos Lagronhe was placed in the aisle at AAA with a right shoulder injury.

Chris, when it rains, it pours. It is pouring on the Yankees right now. not only are they on a seven-game losing streak, but arguably they're two top prospects, probably, I mean, maybe not arguably, but Lombard and Carlos Legrande are both in the IL and the minors right now. And haven't the race won eight straight? That sounds right.

I think the Yankees over the past week have gone from three games up to like four and a half out. Yeah, I think the raise have not lost since the last time the race, the Yankees won. It's crazy, man. Those two sides have kind of just been flip-flopping. place. It's been pretty crazy. Three starting pitchers who might be cooked. And this first one, Chris, I think I know what you're going to say. But this is now bordering out on a really long

sample for Framber Valdez, who at the Rangers, five innings, nine hits, five runs allowed, two walks, only one strikeout, only three whiffs, only a 17% CSW. This was against the Rangers lineup that did not have Corey Seeger, did not have Wyatt Langford in it. And that curve ball just remains a massive problem. He had just one whiff on his curve ball, just a 10% whiff rate. The whiff rate overall on that pitch is way down this season from 44% last year, 31% this year, 10 hard hits in this outing. And his last 28 starts now, dating back to last season. It is a 493 ERA and a 144 whip, 7.1K per 9, 3.4 walks per 9. he might be cooked

might be yeah he might be I don't think so but he might be yeah so entering this start over his previous okay let's just do the the hole let's look at

all right he's got a 429 ERA 429 FIP over his last 18 starts yeah he's had worse stretches or at least comparable stretches He had a stretch in between 2024 and 2023, where he had 18 starts with a 423 FIP and a 451 ERA.

He had a similar stretch a little later that season with a 410 ERA. It just, I don't know, it doesn't, this is not a total outlier for Frambervalda's career. And it's always peaks and valleys. It's always bad good, bad good. And so it's possible that at 32 years old, this was one of the reasons I thought he was a risky free agent, it's possible that at 32 years old he's just taken a huge step back. It feels like many other teams also thought he was a risky free agent. That's why he kind of settled on this deal here.

Settled, he's still making a lot of money. But it was, I think, a three-year deal that had player options or team options after each year deal. so I mean it's it's far from a certain thing entering the offseason all the talk was that he would get up five six seven year game right that's what he was looking for ranger swara has got the five year deal all of it guaranteed for am of al-des did not get that he's got this kind of you know one plus one plus one deal that a lot of players have been settling for so it just I don't know if there's any correlation or reason for why his second half was so bad last year his first first half has now been really bad. Like typically he does have stretches where he struggles. Now maybe his second half is going to be really good like he was in the first half of last year. But there is nothing in the underlying numbers that say that is for the family.

Yeah. It's just the name and the track record. And that might might not be enough. You know, when we talk about hitters, hitters are a lot less mercurial over the course of, you know, on an even day, obviously, anything can happen with any hitter. but over the course of weeks and months and years, they tend to be a little more predictable than pitchers.

And so I'm a lot more confident in Trey Turner bouncing back than I am for Amber Faldas, right? And Trey Turner's already kind of started it. So I can't say I'm 100% certain that Framber Faldes is bouncing back, but if someone dropped him in my league, I would definitely add him. And if someone called me up and nobody's calling on trade offers, but, you know, offered me him for Michael McGrievey or something. I'd absolutely do that.

Yeah, I mean, something crazy like that. But I don't know that I would, unless it's a really, really low by low trade, I don't know that I would confidently give up like a, I don't know, top 50 or top 60 starting pitcher to get Framber Valdez right now. Yeah, I would want to buy low. Lower, yeah. Yeah, but like, okay, well, Ryan Weathers. Would you rather have Ryan Weathers or Frambervaldez?

Yeah, I would take the shot on Valdez. Jose Soriano. I would have Valdez. I would take the shot on Valdez as well. Read Detmer's. I don't think I would do. I don't think I would give up my Detmer's to get Valdez. So the thing with Detmer's is the underlying numbers are a lot better than Faldez.

I know the track record. Yeah, like we don't have any. I know Reed Dembers, but he's also just pitched a lot better than Robben. Yeah, no, I get it. My numbers are much better, too. Those are guys in the 50 to 60 range for me. So like, you know, I'm looking at it like Casey Mize. I would not.

But that's also I just need to move him up. He's just way too low in my rankings. I hadn't updated it. I moved him up like 45. I have him right behind Valdez. That's, that was what I was thinking. But yeah,

I think Valdez probably needs to be ranked in more like the 35 to 40 range now. Yeah. I think I have my top 40. And I've been pretty stubbornly keeping him inside the top. 30. So he's 71% started. He gets the athletics next week there, ath in Wobah against lefties.

I think if you can avoid it, I would try to. That's fair. Yeah. Let's talk about Davis Martin, who looks like it might be falling apart here at the Guardians, who again, on paper,

that should be a good matchup right now. We've been saying that a lot lately. Maybe it's like, I don't know, those pesky guardians are just going to keep proving us wrong. But three and a third inning, six hits, five walks to zero strikeouts here for Davis Martin.

And it's been a tale of two seasons. His first 11 starts, two ERA.99 whip. The biggest standout skill for him was 1.9 walks per nine, and his location plus was 100 during that span. His last six starts, including this one, 565 ERA 188 whip,

nearly five walks per nine, and 92 location plus. So clearly the gains that he made, I know you've talked a lot about this, Chris, where like, I don't know how sticky that is from like start to start or month to month, right? Just someone having command and not. But we did have a longer track record where Davis Martin was not a very good command pitcher. So I don't know.

Is he cooked? Is it falling apart? Probably. Yeah. What's funny is the last six starts have been bad. 565 already you said? Yep. It's two and a half bad.

starts really. Yeah, out of those six. Because today, that was a bad start, five walks. But really, in terms of their ERA, it's the six runs in four and a two-thirds and then nine runs and three and a third. He actually had only allowed one earned run and three of his five starts before this one. Yeah. Combined.

When it's going bad, it's going really bad. Yeah, when it's going. But I think the key thing to take and to keep in mind with Davis Martin is he's never been good before this season. I don't want to be harsh. He's a major league pitcher. there's value in that, but he's never been a fantasy relevant guy. And all of a sudden, he was for two months.

Two months isn't a very long time. And this was a situation where the underlying numbers largely backed it up. Sometimes guys just get hot for a couple of months. And that happens with hitters, but it happens with pitchers a lot more. And when you don't have something concrete, when you don't have something tangible to grab onto, you know, a big change in the pitch mix or a big change in the, quality of the stuff.

And there were some changes in the pitch mix for Martin, the cutter, the curve ball were both up, but it wasn't like completely new pitches or completely new look or two miles per hour of velocity. So it was mostly just that he was

pitching really well for a couple months. And sometimes guys do that, but there wasn't much tangible to hold on to. So yeah, I think at this point, you can probably give up on Davis Martin, but it's not a shock if he goes on another good run here. He's 95% rostered still. He's only 73% started. He gets the Red Sox next week, who might be

without Wilson Gutreras, but their lineup has looked better as of late, but on the season, they haven't been a good lineup. I would not start Davis Martin the way the start that he's coming off of in his recent stretch. You talk about dropping him, right? Like, would you drop him for Ian Seymour? Yeah. Yeah, I think I would. Dropping for those other names, too, like Trevor Rogers and Cantillo and. Yeah. Yeah.

Oh, yeah. Yeah. Troy Melton especially. All right. Let's talk about Roki Sasaki, who another just terrible outing against the Padres, three innings six runs allowed, three homers in this one as well. The biggest problem for him is like walks and home runs. It's just a terrible combination, right?

Seven hard hits in this game only through six. 60% of his pitches for strikes. On the season, 3.8 walks per 9, two homers per 9, which is just massive. And his last four starts, 10.06, ERA, 188 whip. I'm not ruling out the possibility that Roki Sasaki can figure things out again later on in the season and have a stretch where he is useful for fantasy. But right now, he is very not useful.

And I think he's an easy drop at 68% rostered. Yeah, I mean, 540 ERA on the season now, the XERA is bad. He's never had a sustained stretch as a good major league starter. So I remain intrigued. He is a name I will keep an eye on as the season continues to move on. But yeah, I don't think there's any reason to hang on to him right now. All right. Let's take a break.

Our final break, I've got some waiver names. We've got trade targets for the second half of the season. We'll do all that right after this. Welcome back, Fantasy Baseball today. And you are probably tired of hearing about these hitters. I think I have mentioned them every day this week. It's kind of a running bit, at least for Cedric Mullins,

who I will mention once again, by the way. As Merlin Valdez, he keeps on hitting two for four with a triple three RBI, nine games since being recalled. He is 15 for 30, hitting 500, four homers, 10 RBI. Clearly very hot right now.

Not sure exactly how sustainable it is, but 36% rostered, someone who comes with prospect pedigree. I think in all five outfieler leagues, at least, Chris, like, you need to take a shot. shot here just in case he's, you know, some big breakout the rest of the way. Yeah, likeliest outcome is this is a Reese Heinz situation where he, he just gets hot for a

couple weeks and it falls apart. But the strikeout rate is down to 33%. That's still too high, but I think a couple days ago, it was 40%. So we're starting to see the improvement there. He hits the ball hard. He was productive in the minors. I think any five outfield or league, I think that's the right way to put it. Just check and see. Tommy Edmund, a name we have also been mentioning a lot lately, went two for four with a walk, two runs, an RBI here on Thursday. He also added his first stolen base of the season. And originally was not in the lineup,

but I saw Alex Freeland got scratched. So Edmund gets thrown in there. He's 35% rostered. The Dodgers have six games next week. And Scott has the Dodgers with the fifth best hair matchups for next week. So I think he'll, he's been kind of a streaky hitter the past couple years. Maybe he's just finally healthy. I like the fact that he ran here, Chris,

but if nothing else, I like using Tommy Edmund for next week. Yeah, I think the speed is the key thing. We talked about him the other day, and Tommy Edmund's career high OPS is 724. This is not a guy who has ever really had any fantasy appeal when he wasn't running at a decent clip. I guess last year he had that stretch.

Was it early on last year we hit for a bunch of power? I think it was like six home runs in the first month. But outside of that, he's just never been a strong enough hitter to be fantasy relevant without being at least a 20 steal guy. So that's what I want to see if he's going to run more. But it was good to see here at least. Who do you like more between Valdez and Edmund just taking a shot? Probably Valdez.

Admittedly, it's just the mystery box appeal. But I think the likeliest outcome for neither is that they're very good. But Edmund's likelyest outcome is probably likelier. Yeah. That makes sense. Andy Rodriguez keeps doing his thing, one for four with a walk and his fifth home run. Again, he's only started four of the past eight games. Seems like the Pirates don't want to completely give up on Henry Davis, which I get.

He was first overall pick. So I think he's still going to work in here and there. But again, two catcher leagues. It's an interesting time because we've had Andy Rodriguez pop up and Joe Mack has looked really good over the past month or so and Cooper Engel getting called up. I do think Andy Rodriguez is at the top of that two catcher league. discussion if you need to add one right now. Cedric Mullins, I mean, it's kind of just,

it's like a running bit now at this point, but he keeps doing stuff. Like last 36 games, he's hitting 287 with eight homers, five steals, an OPS over 850. He's got seven games next week. There's only one lefty on the schedule. To me, he's clearly behind Esmerlin Valdez and Tommy Edmund, but like a hot hand, got a bunch of games

next week, only one lefty on the schedule. Rays are hitting well right now? Why not? Deeper league, I could see it. Yeah, I don't think it's particularly likely that Cedric Mollins remains a starting caliber player moving forward, but he's clearly playing like one right now. So why not add him and see? You know, like he has a bad week, you drop him.

But I don't think there's any reason not to. I know you'll love this one, Chris. Maybe the Rays are working their magic on Cedric Mollins once again. Maybe. Carter Jensen, not much you could do with this in terms of waiver. wire, but he hit his 13th home run last 22 games. He actually just had a 20, I think a 20 game hit streak or 21 game hit streak came, came to an end his previous game out.

Then here hits another home run, but last 22, beat off home or two. 337 batting average, six home runs, 17 run scored 19 RBI and OPS around 1,000. He hit that home run off of Ian Seymour as well. His numbers are actually better against lefties this year than they are against righties, which I, always like to see that from a young hitter. If you show your team that you can hit as a lefty against lefties,

there's nothing else that you can do to make yourself an everyday player than that. And that is exactly what Carter Jensen has been doing. So kudos to him. Looks like he is, he's taken off. A lot of people had him as a breakout this season. Other waiver wire hitters that I have here, Jake McCarthy,

he has been hot for a while now. Last 30 games, he's hitting 317, 5 homers, four steals, an OPS right around 900. He's 63. So that number has really climbed up there. Seven road games next week, three lefties on the schedule. I don't know.

Not sure about using Jake McCarthy for Nick. He's actually been pretty good against lefties, but it's mostly Babbip. Yeah. I think Scott mentioned yesterday that he's, he's actually been pretty good on the road this year as well. Like he doesn't have the crazy home road splits. Yeah, 767 OPS on the road, 851 at home before this. Yeah. 884 now at home, but 767 on the road, not terrible.

Yeah. I don't think he really needs to be rostered anymore than 63%. You've got, I am. You know, this is the first week where they've played five games at Coors Field. That's probably why he's reached this high water mark. I can't imagine really adding him into points league outside of weeks when they're all at home. Yeah. So it's strictly a roto thing.

And I think 63% rostered probably about the ceiling. Taylor Simpson is coming back around here a little bit. He just picked up another steal. Last 11 games, he's hitting 400 with six steals. Also three more caught stealing during that span. He has 20 steals and 11 caught stealing this season, which is just, it just goes to show that it's more than just speed, right? It's like there are things that you need to pick up on just to be a good base runner

and a good base stealer, right? Like Josh Naler is the complete opposite. He's not Josh Naler. Chandler Simpson had Josh Nailer's like instincts on the base paths. Who knows how many bases he would steal. But he's down to 69% rostered. I think that number is fine. I don't think he needs to be rostered in points leagues,

but probably still should be rostered in all category leagues. The playing time has ticked back up for Simpson as well. So that's good for him. One more deep league outfielder here is Nathan Church, who hit his seventh home run. He has homered in two of his last three games. And in 21 games since returning, he's hitting 271, two homers,

10 runs, and a steel. Single-handedly keeping Joshua Pius down in the minors right now, I guess. 9% rostered. Chris, would you put Church behind, you know,

Mullins and Edmund and Edmund and Edmend and Edmary and Valdez? Yeah, I would. I would put him behind all those guys. All right, some waiver wire starting pitchers outside of Ian Seymour, who again, I think would be at the top of this list

I'm about to mention, but Walbert Arania, nearly unhittable at the Marlins, It's five and two thirds, one hit, one run, took a no hitter into the sixth inning, four more walks, six strikeouts, 17 whiffs on 107 pitches. And we were talking beforehand, Chris, he gives me Edward Cabrera vibes where his secondary stuff is so good. His four seamer is actually pretty good too, but his sinker just gets hit really hard. And I think it's just really difficult for him to command his fastball and sinker.

And so that's why he does throw his secondary pitches as much as he does. but 58% rostered at the Rangers next week. I kind of just feel like that number should be higher, and I would be right using him in that matchup. Yeah, I guess. So here's the problem. Over the past five seasons, entering this one, so 20, well, yeah, 21 to 25, so past five seasons, there have been one starting pitcher

who qualified for the ERA title and had a higher walk rate than Wobber, Iranian's current 12.1%. Can I guess who it is? Sure. Blake's now. Blake's now in 2023. When he was that the year he won, Say Young?

I just remember because he led the league in walks and he won't Say Young in the same season. And the thing is that if you go through the pitchers who have, there have been five pitchers in those five years who have had a walk rate over 11%. And they've all been good, actually. It's Kodai Singh in 2021, Lance McCullors in 2021. Charlie Morton in 2023, Gavin Williams in 2025. They all had an ERA of 364 or lower.

There's, I mean, the thing there is you basically have to strike out a ton of batters and run really hot in terms of your results on balls and play to survive with a walk rate that high. Warburne is doing that right now, and he's generating a ton of weak content, contact on the ground. He's got a pretty good strikeout rate. he's doing it right now. It's just really hard to do this for a full. It's a fine line.

It's a very fine line. There's a reason that the next two are Jose Soriano, who has had stretches where he was good, but it's just really hard to be an effective major league pitcher with a walk rate over 10%. I'm not saying Walburdenia needs to be dropped because of his walk rate or anything. I think even adding him, he's 58% rostered. I think that's fine.

It's just... I like the matchup next week, too. Yeah, at Texas, but it's just... It's hard for me to fully buy in with a 12% walk rate. Fair, yeah, I totally get that. Hirsten Waldrop, a mixed bag in his first start here against the Cardinals, 5 and a 3rd, 3 runs,

four strikeouts to one walk, nine whiffs on 76 pitches here. 24% rostered. I'm not sure how the Braves rotation will kind of shake out and how they're going to see these out, but he could be a two-star pitcher next week. It could just be one-star at the Pirates.

I think in deeper leagues, where Hurst and Waldrop is, my guess, is available because, you know, he's only 24% rostered. I would think he's shot in a deeper league and just see where it goes. I'm not sure we're there in, like, in 12-teamers yet, but deeper leagues, I'm pretty intrigued.

This is Waldrop, right? Yeah. Yeah, I was just looking up to see, Why is it so hard to find this? It should be easier. Okay, because he barely threw his splitter in this one, which is weird, because that's kind of always been his go-to pitch. I think it was his third most used pitch.

In this one, he only threw it fourth-most-used pitch. He only threw it seven times on 76 pitches. That hadn't been the case entering this. He had thrown at about 17% of the time in the minors, 27% in his first appearance. So I don't think there's any change there. I think he just didn't have the feel for the splitter. And I like the way he bounced back.

He had the tough first inning, gave up three runs, but ends up after that four plus innings, four strikeouts, one walk. I think you're pretty happy with that. So I think Waldrop's talented. 24% rostered. I think I'd drop Rookie Sasaki for him. Yeah. And if that's the best guy.

available. Yeah. Just see what's there with Waldrop. I mean, this was a former first round pick. He looked really good down the stretch last year as well. And there will be inconsistency. We say this a lot with Splitter pitchers. Like it's a very hard pitch to command.

But last year that Splitter was incredible pitch, Waldrop. And he had other pitches here that kind of picked him up. His sinker worked really well. His curve ball looked really, really good for Waldrop. His curve ball was good last year too. Like his splitter and curve are two legit pitches. It's just can his sinker be just, okay enough.

Like, can it not get hit really, like, too hard to the point where it's just, like, serviceable with those other two really good secondary pitches? That, to me, and the command are the biggest questions. But I'm intrigued by Hurston Waldrop. And then the last name here is Jared Jones, who had a better result at the Phillies, four innings, one run, six strikeouts, 11 whiffs on 73 pitches. I thought it was a step in the right direction, Chris. I think we still need to see a good amount, a good bit more before we're actually adding

re-adding or using him in our lineups. He still only had one start in seven with more than 77 pitches. That was when he got to 81 in his previous start. And that was a start where he pitched into the fifth inning. And then they pulled him mid-inning when his pitch count got too high. So, I think if he had finished that inning with 75 pitches, that would have been it for him. They just seemed to have a pretty hard ceiling on how many pitches they're going to let Chair Jones throw. Maybe that'll change in the second half.

Maybe that's the plan. But right now, they're still basically picking. backing him with Carmen Maginsky, and it's hard to trust Jared Jones for fantasy as long as that's the case. All right. Here we are. If you clicked on this video, you're probably wondering, where are the trade targets? That's what the thumbnail says we're going to be talking about. Well, you know, it took us 49 minutes, but here we are. We have players who will provide fireworks in the second half of the season. Again, happy 4th of July to everybody out there. Stay safe this weekend. I know things can get a little bit crazy 4th of July weekend, but these are

players that you should be looking to buy that we think are going to have really, really big second halves of the season. And with that, Chris, uh, why don't you give me a couple of hitters first that you are, you'd be looking to buy low on, uh, that you think could go off. So a bunch of obvious names, uh, Ronald Cunio, whenever he's healthy. He was one of the biggest underperformers by Ex Wobo before the injury. Fernando Tatis, obviously, we're starting to see him pick it up. I think we already have Julio Rodriguez, one of the most obvious ones.

He's always better. in the second half than the first, and I think that'll continue to be the case. Kyle Tucker, we're already seeing it. He's reached base, I believe, nine straight plate appearances as of Thursday night. I know it's been a disaster season for Kyle Tucker, and a lot of people have, I think, given up on him. I don't know, dude, he's still 29 years old. He still has this incredible track record.

He's still on the Dodgers. Like, as bad as it's been, he's still. on like a 90 run, 87 RBI pace. If he hits anywhere close to himself, he's going to be a monster in the second half. And we're starting to see he had five hit, four hits in a walk today. He had four walks on Wednesday night. I think Kyle Tucker is going to be much better in the second half than the first. I'll take, you know, set the OPS at 8.30 in the second half.

He's at 7.43 right now. I'll take the overrun at. But my actual pick is Mani Machado. who I think we've already started to see it. Over his past 21 games after Thursday, he has six homers, his strikeout rate below 20%, average exit velocity up to 91 miles per hour.

Batting average has been a little low, but the overall production is starting to look like what you expect to see for Mani Machado, and it's Mani Machado. That's part of my optimism. It's just, yeah, mani Machado is, going to be better than this moving forward.

That won't be true eventually. He is 33 years old. Age catches up to everyone, but I'm going to bet on this dude being a 790 OPS, 25 to 30 homer guy in the second half of the season because that's what he almost always is. If you look at his pace numbers in terms of homers and run production, it's actually right there.

The only thing that's lagging is, I don't know that he's going to run much anymore, but the batting average has just been, it got off to such a bad start that despite him hitting well over the last 20 games, it's still just not enough to pick it up to where it should be. I'm not sure he will get it to where it needs to be by the end of the season. But all we care about now as looking to trade for someone is that can he hit to his numbers the rest of the way? Can he hit to a 260 batting average the rest of the way?

Probably could. $193, Babit. That is just, I don't care how, like, either a 193 Babbup is a total fluke or you are not a major league caliber hitter. And nothing about what Manny Machado is doing so far suggests that he is no longer a major league caliber hitter. So I think he'll hit, you know, maybe it's more like 260 moving forward. Okay. You know, we're in the decline phase.

That's reasonable. But the power's been there. He's not struggling out significantly more than in the past. I think Manny Machado is going to be the guy you expect him. to moving forward. All the projection systems on fan graphs have Machado for between a 240 and 260 batting average, 13 to 15 home runs and like 40 to 50 runs in RBI. It's a must start player.

So, yeah. Hitters that I'm looking to buy as well, you mentioned a few of them, right? Like, Julio just makes so much sense. He goes off in the second half, assuming that there's no like concussion issues going out here. But I did look up the last 30-day ex-woba leaderboard. And Julio has actually been really unlucky over. the last 30 days as well. He's hitting 258, 340 slug, 307 Woba last 30, and his expected stats,

308 XBA, 503X slug, underperforming that by like 160 points and a 382X Woba, which is like 75 points off. So he has been really, really unlucky based on the expected stats the last 30 days. Tatis, he mentioned he's already got it going, but the overall numbers just don't reflect it yet. his last 30, 95.1 average EV, 14% barrel rate, 11 degree launch angle, which is much better, 312XBA, 517 X-Lug, 378 X-Woba. And I'm pretty sure that coincides almost perfectly with him changing his setup in the box. He made some mechanical adjustments, opened his swing up, and I think that helps for sure. This is kind of an aside. I don't want to spend too much time in it,

but I wonder how things like that happened for hitters because there was a game recently, like an ESPN game where, oh, I'm forgetting, I think it's Eduardo Perez, right? He does the broadcast on ESPN. He,

he did like this great side-by-side breakdown of like Tatea's swing last year and his swing this year. And it just seems so obvious, right? Like the things change. And he said, I brought this to Tatees and I showed him like, hey, man, this was your batting stance last year

when you hit for a bunch of power. And this is it now. I just wonder how hitters kind of get in a funk like that and just kind of get so off mechanically. Yeah, that's why I'm always hesitant to like offer that kind of solution because I'm nobody. I'm not like I'm a dummy. They know infinitely more. Yeah, like I get it. I'm able to figure something out.

I guarantee you someone in the Padres front office, someone in that coaching staff is already on top of it. There's no way, no reason to believe that I, I am ahead of the curve in that way. And so, but these things are hard. And it's hard to make changes midseason. And it's hard to, like, you get into a comfort zone. And a hitter can feel good. And like in Tatis's case, he was hitting the ball really hard all the time. So who are you going to tell him?

Like, oh, the ball's just not dropping in is his view. I mean, you know, I assume. But I think it's good that he's already started to make those changes. And yeah, I'll be, I'll be very surprised if Fernetta Tatis is not one of the 20 best players in fantasy in the second half. Some hitters in the mid tier that I would be looking to buy for the second half. Riley Green last 30 days, 94.5 average EV 17% barrel rate. And I think big power is coming here in the summer months, you know, typically early on in the season, playing in Detroit and some of those like AL Central ballparks. like ball just doesn't travel as well.

I do think we could get a big power summer here from Riley Green. And I mentioned Wilson Catreras, no, William Contreras, excuse me, the catcher, William Catreras, a few weeks back. And I'm sticking with this one. His ground ball rate is down quite a bit to season. His pulled air rate is up to a career high 18%. So he's another one where, again, as the weather's heating up, juice ball, all this stuff.

I could see some big power months coming here from William Contreras as well, even though like catcher is a pretty loaded. Yeah, that's the thing I've been struggling with when I'm doing my rankings. Like I don't really want to move William Contreras down. I still have a lot of faith in him, but boy, there's just, there's a lot of good catchers out there. Yeah, I updated the rankings today. I kept them at four in my catcher rankings. You have them in the same spot, but.

I think in Roto, he's five. It's loaded, man. It's like, you look at the top. I lowered Cal Raleigh to 10. I haven't been able to get there yet, but I get it. You know, it's just like, dude, Dylan Dingler, breakout season. Hunter Goodman already has like 27 home runs. I did move Dylan Dingler ahead of Cowrally a couple weeks ago,

which I know is too late for a lot of people, but whatever, I'm slow. Yvonne Herrera, you know, breakout season for him. Oh, yeah, he's been awesome, yeah. And then I do have two lower end names that I'd be looking to buy as well. Another catcher, right? It's like, catcher is so talented right now, but Gabriel Moreno, he's having a solid season overall, but similar to Contreras,

his ground ball rate is down two years in a row. And he has a career high barrel rate, and his pulled air rate has been up two years in a row. So I do think we can get a big power second half from Gabriel Moreno. And Lars Neupar, which could be out there on some, like, you know, on waiver wire still. And I get it. And he's not playing against every lefty,

but it's always kind of been the case. but man, like his his stack has stuff and his quality of contact is just really, really good early on. And just kind of wondering, like, is he finally healthy, right? Like he had this surgery that he needed for a while and maybe it's just finally coming together.

By the way, like Lars. I want to mention, Yvonne Herrera's 10th in the majors in OBP right now. 10th in the majors. I think he's like top 30 overall in ex-Woba this season. His walk rate is way up. He has also been hit by a major league high, 23 pitches.

That's weird. Although Sam Antinacci is going to catch up to him. He's already a 17. Yvonne Herrera 42nd among qualified hitters in X-Wil-Boss. He's really good. He's going to have a 2010 season. And I think if the, he could very easily get hot and get to 25 homers, I think.

On the pitcher side, Chris, we don't have as many names as we do for the hitters, but we both landed on the top ace to buy for the second season. Brian Wu. I think that one's fairly obvious. no good explanation for why he's struggled. We have still seen some really, really dominant starts from Brian Wu.

He's still doing a really good job of limiting damage on contact. His strikeout rates a little lower than last year, but it's within three percentage points. I don't think that's really a worry. None of the underlying stuff with the pitch mix looks all that concerning. So I think the 332 XERA, that's a lot more like what I expect from Brian Woo moving forward. Yeah, he was the exact one.

I think this is your last chance to buy. I think we could talk about Brian Wu a month from now. His ERA at this moment is 417. I think it could be a full run lower than that, a month's time from now. Like he could just get it all the way down. It could be more than a four. I don't know what the math on that is,

but it doesn't sound unreasonable. If he goes on a stretch where he has like a, you know, sub two ERA for four or five stars, I don't think that would surprise any. buddy. The home road splits have been really weird this year. I totally get that if you have Brian Wu, it's been frustrating. But if you don't have Brian Wu, I would try to pray on those who are frustrated by Brian Wu. So yeah, I think we're both in agreement there. The other name I had was

just Ian Seymour. I just wanted to give him another shout out. If he just remains in the rotation, I think he could be a really big second half here. And maybe someone we're talking about, you know, pie in the sky, right? If he just remains in the rotation, he could be talking about him as like a top 40 top 30 starting pitcher by season's end. It reminds me of Chris Bubich last year. Lefty doesn't have big velocity, actually below average velocity. I think he and Seymour sits around 92 miles per hour, but just the pitch plays up for whatever reason it's the arm slot or the left-handedness.

I think he's pretty good. I do want to add Yuri Perez is another choice here. He's been pretty disappointing this season, and the underlying numbers are not great because he does give up a lot of hard contact in the air. His walk rate has been really, really bad, but he's 23 years old. He's got some of the best stuff in baseball. If you trust any of the stuff metrics,

he writes out, like right there at the top of the list with anyone. The control's been bad, but it's been much better lately. And I like the fact that he went on the aisle at the end of May. I don't like that he went on the aisle at the end of May. But I like that since going back, he had started to show much better control, the past two starts before going on the aisle.

He goes on this weird one-start rehab assignment comes back way sooner than anybody expected, and the control has mostly been pretty good. And he pitched well in course field, which- And he pitched well at course field. The one start where the control was bad was at course field. I think that's understandable. So I continue to think, given how young he is and how good this stuff is, Yuri Perez is going to be an ace at some point.

I just, you know, let's bet on it being in the second half, right? All right. I did have a segment set up here. Chris Tower's appreciation day for his birthday weekend. I was going to go through some of the players you've been most right about so far this season. I did go through all of your sleepers, breakouts, and busts articles. I'm sure there were some real bad calls in there. We don't have to talk about those.

But I think it just starts right at the top. Nobody in the industry, at least from what I saw, put their neck out there more for Yordon Alvarez than you did this year. that has paid off handsomely. They were just giving him away. There were 15 team drafts where you could get him in like the fourth round at times this year. It was just... I passed on him in the third round of TGFBI,

and I'm pretty sure you laughed at me the next day. Man, that's a mistake. That's Hunter Green, who literally got hurt the next day. Look, there is still very... There's a lot of season left. He could still get hurt. I think if Yoran Averas doesn't play another game, he was worth the pick, given how good he's been so far.

He is the leading AL MVP candidate at this time. Has to be, yeah. Although Junior Camerro is making a bit of a rock year. Yeah, Camerro. We played the full song yesterday's. Oh, I love that. Yeah, six games in a row with the Homer? That six games in a row, nine home runs in his last eight.

That was before Thursday, which is just crazy stuff. Some other sleepers and breakouts that you've been dead on so far this season. Cade Smith, Chase Burns, Cosimo, Okamoto, Parker, Messick, Jack Caglione, mostly June, but we'll give that one to you. Yvonne Herrera and J.J. Weatherhole, those are all names I saw in your sleepers and breakouts. That are really good so far.

And then busts that you got right so far. Lots of injuries on here, but I didn't read the articles, but I would imagine that injuries were probably a reason why you were worried about these pitchers. Very much so, yeah. Blake Snell, Spencer Shrider, Carlos Estavis, I think we, that was kind of like the free square.

It was everybody in the industry. Luis Robert. who just can't stay healthy. And then Chandler Simpson, who I think you've mostly been right about so far. Yeah, love it when we say nice things about Chris. Yeah, there you go. Make sure everyone completely floods Chris this weekend on Twitter,

on X, on Blue Sky, just send him all the birthday wishes. Hitting leftovers, South Stewart took the Miz deep, and he's picking things back up. Last 15 games, 300 batting average, four homers, 17 RBI, a 928 OPS. Mickey Moniac is getting hot as well. He is homered in three straight. Brian Rokio hit his sixth home run, 3 RBI, a walkoff against Grant Taylor, more on that a bit.

But this was Brian Rokio's first home run since June 6th. In 21 games in between, he hit 234 with a 597 OPS. So kind of think at 66% rostered, that number is too high for Brian Rokio. Jordan Walker hit his 19th home run, but we should mention that this is his first home run since June 13th. And in 14 games between homers, he hit 2,000. 35, zero extra base hits, 32% strikeout rate, 521 OPS, 53% ground ball rate. Are you worried about Jordan Walker? Yes and no.

Yes, I am worried. No, I'm not worried. No, look, the underlying numbers have gotten worse as the season has gone on. Over the past 100 played appearances, it's something like a 330X Wobah, which is still playable, but it's not like he was looking like, one of the best players in baseball for a couple of months there. And I don't think he's that. But that's not really a knock on him.

If he's a top 50 player in fantasy the rest of the way, that's still a huge win for your fantasy team. So I think you'll take that from Jordan Walker. Yeah. I'm not not worried about it, especially when it's the strikeouts and the ground ball rate that is kind of, you know, climbing up here for him. Jordan Walker, those are things that have been issues for him in the past.

He went through a stretch in May where he struggled and then he got back out of it and he bounced back. Yeah. Now we need to see him do that again. Like pitchers are making adjustments to him. We have to see Jordan Walker make that adjustment back. It is, I'm not going to say, like, I don't think it's completely black and white. Like, we're at a fork in the road where this kind of determines his season. But I could see like if he doesn't get out of this lump soon that maybe it's kind of extended

and maybe he starts to get in his head a little bit. So we'd like to see, obviously, this is a good game, good first game, but we need to obviously see him get back on track here. That's Jordan Walker. Some pitching left over is Chase Burns out duel Jacob Mizirowski, six innings, two runs, four strikeouts here. Jacob Mizirowski himself, he looked a little bit more human, five innings, five hits, five runs.

Only one of those was earned, but it was till 10 strikeouts to zero walks. He gave up a three-run homer after an error. started the inning and there would have been three outs in the inning if it wasn't for that error. Off 102 mile per hour pitch, by the way. Who hit that off of them? Sal Stewart. Oh, it was that home run? I believe so, yeah.

I think, no, Sal Stewart hit his in the first inning. So I think it was... Oh, okay. There were two other players that homered in that game. I think it was like T.J. Friedel and Jose Trevino. Yeah, T.J. Friedel did Homer today, yeah. I don't know which one of them hit it off of the Mizz, but one of them did. Yeah.

It's just kind of weird, but he still has double-digit strikeouts in seven of 17 starts this year. He's awesome. I moved him ahead of Paul Skeens this week, which sounds obvious now, but I don't know. Yeah. I, okay, that is not the hardest hit ball or hardest thrown ball that has been hit for a homer. There have been nine home runs off of pitches, 102 miles an hour or harder. I think Sayas Suzuki hit one off of them last week. That was like 102 or 103, something like that.

Doesn't say here that that's happened, but apparently Mason Miller gave up a home run on 104 mile an hour pitch to someone in 2025. I don't remember that one. Me neither. And the last left over here is Nathan Avaldi, who had a mixed start against the Tigers, five innings, three runs, nine strikeouts to one walk, two homers loud,

18 whiffs on 85 pitches. You dig into Nathan Avaldi, Chris. It's kind of a weird season for him because the ERA is elevated. But the strikeouts have been awesome this year. His swinging strike rate is by far a career high, 14.5%. His home runs per nine are up from 0.7 to 1.6, despite his flyball rate and his barrel rate being very similar to last year. So I don't really know what to make of the home runs being up for Avaldi this season.

Yeah, I wanted to see if maybe it's because he's leaning in on the all, like kind of oops all secondaries approach. His fastball usage is down to 12.5%, it's the lowest of his career. I think the exit velocity on his splitter is up quite a bit this season. Yeah, he's given up multiple home runs on all five of his pitches, four on the splitter, four on the cutter, five on the four seamer. So that doesn't really seem to be the explanation. Just maybe the,

maybe the effectiveness hasn't been where you want it to be, but I think on the whole you're still pretty happy with Nathan Avaldi it's just you know, maybe he's certainly not the two ERA guy

he was last year. Was it sub two? I think it was sub two. I think I just found the issue. His four-seem fastball this season has a $4.50 batting average against and a 774 slug.

Yeah, that's bad. Last year it was 266 and $4.57. Yeah, that's bad. So, I mean, he doesn't throw fastball very much, but whatever he does, it kind of gets clobbered. The call to the bullpen for the pirates with a five-run lead, Gregory Soto, got the eighth inning

facing the top of the Phillies lineup. He tossed a clean inning, and then it was Mason Montgomery who got the ninth, and he struck out the side to close it out. Mason Montgomery has now closed out two of their last two wins in a row, I guess, and he's only 3% rostered. If you are speculating on saves, or you have Gregory Soto. I think Mason Montgomery is probably the guy to add. I would also add they were up by five by the time he pitched, but they were only up two heading into the eighth inning. They scored two in the top of the eighth.

I think Soto was just lined up to get the hold there. They scored two at the top of the eighth. Montgomery was likely already warming up for the ninth anyway when they scored another run in the ninth. So I think that's probably, it's speculative, but I think this was lining up for Montgomery to get a save if they hadn't added those. For the White Sox, Grant Taylor entered in the eighth inning with a one-run lead.

He walked one but got out of it. And then he came back out for the ninth. It was a walk in out and then a walk-off two-run Homer to Brian Rokio. This White Sox bullpen is just struggling right now. Grant Taylor's stuff, if you watch him pitch, he's disgusting. And his underlying numbers are fantastic. but lately whenever he's been given a high leverage opportunity, he hasn't really come through.

I was tweeting about this earlier, and some people responded that they think the usage of him trying to go more than one inning is kind of what's affecting him. And that could be a possibility. So I would like to see the White Sox just like, man, give him confidence, use him in the ninth inning, traditional closer, and let's see what he could do. Like stop trying to do the multi-inning save thing with Grant Taylor.

Is there anybody else in this bullpen that you would look at right now for the west side. I don't think so. And what's really frustrating about this little slump for Taylor, um, he got right away with the job by now. It would, I think it would have been his job if he had just pitched well. I think they were ready to,

to do that. And he's just really struggled over the past, what, two, three weeks. And so that's kind of, that's been the stumbling block for him. Yeah. For the raise,

Brian Baker picked up his 22nd save. What a season, 189 ERA and a point eight four whip for him. And for the Mariners, Andres Munoz got the ninth with a one-run lead. He allowed three base runners, but managed to escape with his 16th save of the season. To stream or not to stream on Friday, we have Andre Palante at the Cubs, Trevor Rogers at the Reds, Anthony Kay at the Guardians,

Christian Scott at the Braves, Grant Holmes against the Mets, Jake Bennett at the Angels, Luis Castillo against the Blue Jays. Yeah, Bennett, Rogers, K, I think I was Luis Castillo, I'd go with over K. Yeah, I like it.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jack Perkins had a good start. His underlying stuff is really good. His stuff is good and it's a course hangover game for the Marlins. So wouldn't be surprised if their offense struggled a little bit here. Yeah, definitely like Bennett, Rogers,

Castillo as the top three. But yeah, I could see Perkins and Anthony Kay maybe having some good starts. On Saturday, Zibby Matthews at the Yankees, Jack Flaredes at the Rangers, Kumar Rocker against the Tigers Brandon Young at the Reds

Sean Mani at the Braves Merrill Kelly against the Brewers Boy I think I like three or four different guys on Friday more than anyone on Saturday If you were pitching in the majors right now I would stream you against the Yankees I don't think that's true

I'm not built up so I wouldn't go deep into the games I've got iffy control I don't think it would work out Frank is frozen so I'm going to move on to Sunday and we will see if we can get Frank in Sunday's streamers. Eric Fetty at Cleveland, Matthew Libertor at the Cubs, Javier Assad versus the Cardinals, Aaron Nola at the Royals, Luinder Avila versus the Phillies, Peter Lambert versus the

Rays, Brandon Sprote at the Diamondbacks, Ryan Johnston versus the Red Sox. I don't really like any of these guys either. Yeah, I can't bring myself to trust Brandon Sprode. I can't bring myself to trust Peter Lambert. So I'm going to pass on Sunday. I guess the best option is probably Sprote as a high variance option for this weekend streamers. And we are going to wrap there for myself, for Frank, whenever, wherever he is. Thanks as always for tuning in to fans of baseball.

We'll be back again next week. Bye-bye. On Podcasts. Criminal Minds Evolution is back on Paramount Plus. We are going to go where the evidence takes us. This season, evil is contagious. Once it starts, it can't be stopped. Criminal Minds Evolution.

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