Fantasy Baseball Today - Bryce Miller's Velo Dip, Bounce Backs & Worry-O-Meter! (7/10 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 10, 2026

The Marlins are the hottest team in baseball (2:30)! ... Bryce Miller is human after all (4:40). ... Gavin Williams and Framber Valdez had big bounce backs (11:25). ... News (24:50): Aaron Judge will get imaging done during the AS break. ... Let's fire up the Worry-O-Meter for Reid Detmers, Drew Rasmussen and others (36:35). ... Bryce Eldridge keeps on hitting (47:13). ... Logan Henderson made his return (56:40). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpens and streamers (1:04:27).Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for the newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters

Men's a fantasy baseball today on July 10th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Chris Towers. Today on the show, we had some notable pitcher blowups, so we will fire up the Worryometer. What happened to Bryce Miller and his velocity? Confusing players to rank, heading into the second half, and much more. Let's jump in. Gracious!

All right, before we get to Bryce Miller, Chris, I just got to give you props, man. Have you been able to enjoy? It does it feel real yet? The fish. The fight and fish. The Miami Marlins. Back-to-back sweeps. Six in a row.

16 and 4 in their last 20 games. Three games behind the Braves in the NL East. Currently in a wild cardinal. Three games up on the Cardinals. They're good, man. They're good. Currently, currently better record than the New York Yankees.

All right. You know, why'd you have to go there? I start off. to give you some props and that's where you take it. All right. So here's my thing, right? I have often said that I'm only a Marlins fan still because I don't feel like I deserve better than that. You know, like it being a Marlins fan doesn't bring me joy.

So no, I don't expect this to last. I expect this to fall apart at some point. They still have like three starting pitchers right now. Braxton Garrett pitching well in the Myers. I know. I'm surprised they haven't called him back up. They've given Jansen Junk and Ryan Gusto a bunch of chances. So no, I don't think this is real, but it's been really fun.

I'm enjoying the heck out of it. They are 10 games over 500 for, so I don't think it's the second time, but the second season that the Miami Marlins have been 10 games over 500 at any point. Since 2012, they used to be the Florida Marlins, obviously, but that's a pretty long run with only two over 10 games over 500 runs. So yeah, it's fun.

I don't expect it to continue, but I'm not an optimistic Marlins fan. So I've been wrong already. I hope they keep proving me wrong. Hey, man, enjoy it. Try to sit back and, you know, enjoy it a little bit the way the Marlins are playing right now. They just, they have smart people in the front office

and coaching staffs now. Turns out that makes a difference, you know? Certainly does. Certainly does. And the Marlins, who just swept the Mariners, they beat up on our guy, Bryce Miller. It turns out he is human after all. So we will start things off with a player of the night.

Obviously not a great outing here. But five innings, nine hits, six runs for those earned. Four walks to three strikeouts, 10 whiffs on 81 pitches here. The biggest thing, the velocity down across the board, here. So the fastball was down 1.3 miles per hour.

His splitter down almost two miles per hour in this one. Basically everything between one and like two and a half miles per hour across the board here.

His four seam fastball had nothing. He got zero whiffs on that. Four hard hits against that pitch. 94.6 average exit velocity against. And I felt like we needed to start here because

basically any other time Bryce Miller has pitched this season. We have started off just ranting and raving about how amazing he is. and this is the best version of Bryce Miller. And so I don't want people to think that we are just completely, you know, flip-flopping. Oh my God.

They said this about Bryce Miller. But, you know, we have to be realistic. And obviously, this was a really bad start. And there were some bad signs under the hood with the velocity. I waited to see some quotes after the game to see if there was anything. I couldn't find anything myself here about Bryce Miller. But it does kind of bring into question. He's someone that has had an arm injury as, as,

recently as last year. And so that does worry some people. You might be surprised to know, Chris, that I posted about Bryce Miller on X and everyone was, you know, the world was ending. It's like, oh, man, I should have traded him when I had the chance.

I don't know that that's necessarily the case, but it's a little worrisome. Yeah, I mean, maybe. That's all we can say right now because the thing about velocity is, unlike most other stats, you only need one reading for velocity to be meaningful, right?

Like, it stabilizes incredibly quickly. A 94 mile an hour pitch is just a 94 mile an hour pitch. There's not a lot of noise there. But just because someone is averaging 95 with their fastball in one start does not mean that they will continue to average 95 with their fastball moving forward. And so that's the tough thing is. I think if Bryce Miller's velocity is terminally down, one plus mile per hour,

then yeah, a lot of the things that we've said about him so far this season and how good he's been will probably prove to not be accurate because he would be a different pitcher

than the guy we were getting so excited about. And, you know, look, we saw Bryce Miller be a very, very good pitcher in 2024 when he averaged 95.2 miles per hour with his fastball, but that was a different version of him. And, you know,

we often talk about, about this thing where when guys go from 96 to 95, their stuff tends to play worse than the guys who just sit at 95. You know, I'm not sure what the mechanism is there. You find a way to succeed with the higher velocity and you lose a little bit of velocity and it just doesn't work anymore and you have to find a different way to succeed. I don't know if that will be the case for Bryce Miller moving forward.

it's just one start of this velocity. It's one bad start, but he's been so good this season that I think he's definitely earned the benefit of the doubt. But if his velocity is down to 95 miles per hour on average moving forward, I think he's much more likely to be worse than he has been so far. I just can't look into the future and say that's going to happen or not. So it's a really tough spot to be in. I don't think you should panic, though, because it's, it's a really tough spot to be in. though, because it's his worst start. We've seen how good he can be.

And he wasn't likely to remain that good forever. I mean, he was pitching like maybe the best pitcher in baseball for the last month and a half. I don't think he's that. But everyone else can see his velocity being down and the bad start that came with it. So if you did panic and trade him right now, you're not going to get good offers for him. So you might as well just hang on to him and hope that the velocity comes back. because the upside there is a lot higher.

And you didn't give up anything to get him in the first place unless you traded for him. But for the most part, you just added him. Yeah, I think that last point is so crucial too, because this is basically found money. I think a lot of people either stashed him all season or picked him up as a waiver wire pitcher before he returned. And like you said, he was pitching like one of, if not the best pitcher in all of baseball before this. Now, he is allowed to have a bad star, right? Like he is human. He's, you know, he was lights out before this.

He's allowed to have a bad start. It's just how he had the bad start. So obviously, we needed to highlight that first and foremost. And you bring up a good point that he has had success pitching at this velocity in the past. Now, obviously, I don't want his velocity to remain at this level. I want him to get back to where he's been all this season. But his velocity has been up notably across the board this year compared to any other season that he's pitched. So that's part of why he's been the best version of himself.

But obviously it's just kind of a wait-and-see game, and it's only one start. So we'll be paying close attention to see where Bryce Miller's velocity goes from here. If you had to put a number on it, Chris, on the Wuriameter 1 to 10, where you're at on Bryce Miller in this start. I mean, it's kind of like a Schrodinger's cat situation where it's either zero or like eight. because it's either the velocity's down and that I'm really worried

or the velocity comes back in his next start and I'm not worried at all. So I guess it's like a two. That's where I would be two. I'm not overly worried about it. Like I know he's had arm injuries in the past, but this also can happen to any pitcher at any point. Like I, you look at any picture and they've probably had some kind of arm related something at some point in their life.

So yes, it just happened last year for Bryce Miller, but I really don't want to overblow this too much. And every pitcher's going to have a start throughout the season where their velocity's down a little bit. And it doesn't necessarily mean anything. And he was facing the freaking Marlins. And he was facing the fighting Marlins. Yeah, exactly.

Come on, man. Who wouldn't wilt in the heat of Lone Depot Park? They probably had the roof open or the roof closed, but still. I'm sure they did. You know, he was sweating on the way to the ballpark, and that'll carry over. All right, Chris, let's talk about some. good. We'll go over to your player, players of the night, whichever one you want to start with here.

But we got some big bounce back starts on Thursday as well. Yeah, from maybe the two most frustrating pitchers in baseball. I know we've got a tougher, tough players to rank segment coming up. And I think Gavin Williams and Framber Valdez are both very much on that list. And we got the good versions of both of them today. And Williams 11 strikeouts and seven innings, two earn runs, one wall, on three hits against the twins. He looked awesome.

I mean, this was about as good as we've seen from Gavin Williams, but the thing is, we see these starts from Gavin Williams all the time. I mean, he's capable of putting together starts of absolute brilliance. And the problem is, it doesn't necessarily seem to have any carryover to his next start.

He looked like he was having a breakout season, up until the end of May. And then his six starts prior to this, I think he had a 660 ERA and a 143 whip. The three starts before that, he allowed, I think, two earned runs. The two starts before that, it was 10 combined earned runs.

It's just he is, like, every pitcher is volatile, but Gavin Williams just seems to be on a different level. And you even see it in his various peripheral which range from like a 317 X-FIP is excellent. A 376 FIP is okay. And a 466 XERA. It's just like none of these stats know what to do with him.

I don't know what to do with Gavin Williams. I think he is one of the 36 best pitchers in fantasy. But he is never the 36th best pitcher in fantasy. Right. He is either like the seventh best or the 70th best for a start for a month for like there's no there's no in between with Gavin Williams. I find him endlessly frustrating. At the end of the day though, I think it's going to be a mid to high three ZRA, a bunch of strikeouts and a manageable whip. Yeah, and we spoke about him earlier in the season during this breakout where there was, you know, still some blow off starts mixed in there. and just come to the conclusion that you just leave Gavin Williams in your lineup no matter what.

You don't try and play the matchups or try to figure out Gavin Williams. Nobody can figure out Gavin Williams. He's just somebody, you leave in there, you take the good with the bad, and let's see what the numbers are at the end of the season. But I mostly agree with your assessment that it's probably going to be a mid-to-high-3s ERA. The whip is much better this season as well. He's got the walks under control. He's pitching more in the zone. Perhaps that's why that's led to more hard.

contact more barrels this season against him. In this start in particular, his velocity was actually up quite a bit. His fastball was up 1.7 miles per hour. He averaged 98.5. His sinker was up 1.4. And he leaned more on that sweeper. It was amazing.

Nine of his 13 whiffs came on that sweeper. And his breaking pitches are outstanding. They always have been. It's just can he kind of limit the damage on his fastball? Like, you can't, I mean, I guess you can. just throw breaking pitches nonstop, but you probably have to mix in some fastballs just to keep opposing batters on it.

So can he limit the damage whenever he has to throw those fastballs? And I think him throwing his fastball harder here is something that can help. Can he maintain that? I'm not entirely sure, but yeah, this is the Gavin Williams experience. His fastball is also just very inconsistent.

He gets a lot of whiffs with it, but he also gives up a ton of hard contact. But also the velocity varies a lot. He's one of the guys that when I've looked into it, I guess I haven't looked at in a couple months, but historically he has been a guy who has struggled to maintain his fastball velocity throughout starts. He also just his,

he'll go from like 6.9 feet of extension to like 7.3. He has these really wide gap. Like he just seems to be mechanically inconsistent as well. So everything about him is inconsistent. Yeah, he's just a highly, frustrating, volatile pitcher. Can I get on a little soapbox for like 30 seconds? Sure.

I was watching the game and the Guardians announcers, it's the fifth inning. He's retired the first 13 batters he's faced and Royce Lewis is up there and he buntts twice. And the Guardians announcers start, both were foul. Guardians announcers start getting mad. Oh, you can hear some grumbling from the Cleveland dug out. You know, what's, you know. And then he swings with two. strikes and dumps in a bloop for a single.

And the Guardians announcers like, oh, there's no justice in this world. That quote was actually kind of hilarious, I thought. So I, but I've seen some Guardians fans who are like actually like mad that Royce Lewis was trying to button. It's like there is no such thing as a perfect game bid in the fifth inning. That's just you had four good innings. And it's a one run game. Right.

It was a one run game. I am fine with bunting against a no hitter at any point. no matter what the score is. Like, I think that, like, I think that is one of the dumbest things people complain about. Play defense. It's baseball. Like, you are allowed to do that. So play defense.

But complaining about it in a one run game in the fifth inning as if that's like some, like, jerk move is ridiculous. Grow up. Like, I cannot believe I saw people complaining about this. It's just ridiculous. I mean, it happens at least once a season, Chris. You got to expect that. at this point.

But it's the fifth inning. I don't disagree with you. 13 batters in row. That's impressive, but it's not like, oh, stop the presses. Kevin Williams has a perfect game in the fifth inning. You're not sending out app alerts in the fifth inning.

Give me a break. All right, let's go over to the other player we wanted to highlight. Fran Bervaldez, who also had a big bounce back here against the athletics, seven innings of one run ball, nine strikeouts, zero walks, 18 whiffs on 87 pitches,

and the key, which we talk about every start for Framber Valdez, the curveball. It was on. Eight of his 18 whiffs came on that curveball, 50% whiff rate, 44% CSW. It was outstanding. He only threw six sliders in the start, but that was a key pitch for him as well. He really had everything working. He threw 68% of his pitches for strikes. He only allowed four hard hits in this game.

It's a nice bounce back after allowing four plus earn runs in back-to-back starts. he's another one just maddeningly inconsistent. Two earned runs or fewer in 12 outings this year, four or more earned runs in the other seven. He's just kind of taken that to an extreme this year. So he goes on these monthly stretches where he's either really bad or really good. Hopefully he can carry this into the second half.

Yeah, the thing with Framber is, and I think he's very similar to someone like Kevin Gosman, different types of pitchers, but Framber's big curveball almost operates like a lot of these splitter guys, you know, the splitter heavy guys, splitters where when they have the feel for that pitch, they're really, really good. And when they don't, things can get really, really bad for them. And I think that's the thing with Framber Valdez is because that pitch is big, slow, and loopy,

it's just inherently going to be volatile. It's going to be tough to throw that consistently to the same place. and the thing with Framber that I think is different from Gavin Williams, at least historically, is when Framber Valdez is good, he's usually just good. It's usually like three good months in a row. It's not like two good starts, one bad start, two bad starts, three good starts. You know, it's usually not that. It's usually he either has it or he doesn't. and there does seem to be,

uh, you know, with, with Gavin Williams, it's a, there's very little pattern to when he's good and when he's bad. It's just kind of random number generator. Framber it's just,

he's at a one or he's at a 10. And there doesn't, there usually isn't a lot in between. I guess this season has been a little different with the, the two out at two run runs and 12 outings. But on the whole, I think once he locks in, he tends to lock in.

And that's why I haven't been too worried about how bad he's been this season, just because it's always like this. There's just always a stretch where he struggles and he struggles, he struggles, and then the light clicks on and he's really good again. And so I can't say for sure he will be good moving forward, but I expect he will be. And so much of that comes down to that curveball as well, which was awesome in this start.

It's just, it's frustrating the way it's played out the past two years because last year in the first half he was awesome, and then in the second half he was terrible. and now this year in the first half he's been terrible. So we now have like a full seasons worth of data of Framber Valdez just not being good. I think I brought up those numbers last week

and it was like a mid-Fours ERA for his last 30 starts or something like that, which is unacceptable for someone who you took as like your SP2 and fantasy. But there's always a chance that he's about to go on one of those runs like he had in the first half of last season. So just got to keep that in mind.

I had a few people asking me recently if they could drop Franbervaldez. I have not got that far. I have him just outside my top 40 starting pitchers, but I still think he's a must-raster pitcher. And again, hopefully he can carry this over into the second half. The Tigers have been playing better ball since Terrick Scouble came back. So they need everybody to lock in at the same time,

and it seems like for the most part they have been getting that. Before we hit our first break, just want to let everyone know the schedule for next week. Obviously, this weekend, last weekend of baseball, before we get into the All-Star break, Sunday night, we will be. here like normal, we'll have a weekend recap. Monday night, I will be doing an MLB draft recap with our buddy the Welsh.

So we usually do that every year. That's kind of an annual thing that we do. And it's just a very early look, right? Like, even if you don't play in Dynasty leagues, just learning about these guys now and having an idea for when they get to the majors in the next couple of years, some of them. Like the first overall pick the Rock Chilowski guy. It doesn't sound like he's going to be number one, though.

He could be in the majors as soon as next season. So yeah, I mean that that's we've seen a lot of college bats move very, very quickly. I think more so in the last few years than ever before. So I think Rock Kowalski's definitely collect. Is that how you say? I don't know. I think it's Chalowski, but sure. Chalowsy.

Got to brush on that. Yeah, and I don't watch a ton of college baseball, to be honest. I will learn more about him in the next few days. But yeah, that that is absolutely a name that we might need to know for 2027. And we will be here as well Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday night of next week. I have no idea what we're doing yet. So that's my job over, I don't know, the next day or so to figure out. But we will be here doing podcasts all of next week as well.

Let's take that break and we will be back right after this. Welcome back, Fantasy Baseball today. Let's get into the news and notes. And we did get a little bit of an update here on Aaron Judge. He will get follow-up imaging on his injured rib during the All-Star break. Brian Cashman had this to say, quote, I don't think we're anticipating it's coming back clean.

I think we're anticipating and hopeful that it's showing the healing process. It doesn't sound like the most promising quote to me, Chris. I don't, I guess you can look at it either way. Like, glass half full, glass half, like glass half full, all right, if it shows healing, obviously, that's good. But if he still can't do baseball activities,

like, at this point, my expectation is if he doesn't suffer a setback, the earliest he'll be back is probably mid to late August. So it did sound like maybe if it starts to show, if it's showing the healing that they're hoping for, he can start to progress. But it sounded like there was still some pain and discomfort when Cashman was talking about it.

So yeah, it sounds like it's not, Aaron Judge's return is not imminent. I think would be the best way to say. Munitako Morikami is expected to be activated on Friday. He's been out since May 30th with a grade two hamstring strain, and that's awesome. Baseball's better when Morikami is playing. Wyatt Langford was activated after missing about two weeks with a strain left hamstring.

I believe he had the walk-off hit in that game here on Thursday. Nick Kurtz was back in the lineup after leaving Wednesday with an illness. Ranger Suarez was placed in the IL with a left groin strain. groins for pitchers can be a little tricky here. My guess is he probably won't be back right after the All-Star break, but hopefully not too long after that. But it's always concerning, especially with Framberg, just because we have, sorry, with Ranger Suarez,

we have seen multiple very promising seasons get derailed by injuries, even when he was able to pitch through them. So it's a little worrisome, yeah. Usually it's a back thing with Suarez. He felt with a bunch of back injuries. So, I mean, thankfully it's not that, But yeah, again, groin for a pitcher, it can be tricky. This news we just got, the debacks are DFAing Pavin Smith,

and they're recalling Ryan Walschmidt. I did want to check in to see how he was performing lately in the minors so we can do that all together, I suppose. Ryan Walshmidt, obviously people spent a lot of fad to pick him up earlier in the season. Did not go so well. He's 24% rostered. His numbers in the minors in 51 games at AAA,

288, 6 homers, 6 deals. 897 OPS. They're good. Pretty good in June. They don't blow you away. Yeah. I remain pretty optimistic about Ryan Walschmidt in the long run. He'll need to hit for more power, hit the ball with more authority.

That was the biggest thing when he was up. He struck out too much. You need to pick one. You know, you can either strike out a bunch or you can not hit for power. You can't do both. And so, but I still think he's a talented, promising player with a very fantasy-friendly skill set in what should be a decent lineup.

So I'm definitely willing to pick Ryan Walschman up in five outfielder leagues with this news. So in 17 games since he got sent back down to the minors, he hit 286 with three homers, a 939 OPS, 15% walk rate, 19% strikeout rate. So the strikeouts weren't too bad in the minors. can he carry that over to the majors? That obviously is the biggest question. But I think deeper five outfielder leagues for sure, because he was dropped everywhere.

12-team five outfieler leagues, I think he's probably on that fringe, but somebody could probably use him. Or even as a bench stash just to see what he does after he gets called out. Where's he going to play every day? Because Pim and Smith was mostly playing first base. So I don't think Ryan Walsh Smith's going to play first base. Yeah, I just

Tommy Troy's been fine I don't think Max Kepler's like a huge hurdle So they could just bench Max Kepler But he's in there right now Right That'll probably be it right I wonder if Just thinking out aloud

Like has Kepler or Lordus Guerriel ever played first base Kepler has played three innings at first base Back in 2018 I believe. So those were a couple, I mean, maybe they'll just use I'll Demarro Vargas. I know he's a really, really good defender there at first base, but obviously his bat has fallen off. Yeah, it's a fair question. But my guess is if they're calling them up, they're probably going to play them.

I think the debacks have fallen pretty far out of things here. Let's take a look at their playoff. They're one game under 500. They're five and a half out of a wild card spot. You know, we're getting close to that territory. Like, let's see what the young kids can do, the rest of it. of the season. So, I think he's probably going to play. And that's Ryan Walschman. He's 24% rostered on CBS. Carlos Hordawn played catch Thursday. Just six days after going on the aisle with left elbow

inflammation, it was pretty surprising to me just because the injury sounded kind of bad, like heavy inflammation. And I think at the time, they said he probably, he wasn't going to throw for, I thought they said like a couple of weeks, but I mean, here he is. He played catch on Thursday. Hunter Goodman returned to the lineup after missing two games with a wrist injury. Sayas Suzuki left early Thursday with cramps in his calf. Before leaving, he went three for four with a sock into shoe, his 15th home run, his first deal.

And he had a really bad May, but since the start of June, Suzuki has been awesome once again. Wilson Contreras had his suspension reduced from seven to five games, and he began serving that on Thursday. Dylan Dingler was not in the lineup Thursday after taking a foul tip off of his right thumb on Wednesday. X-rays came back clean and he is considered day to day. Max Meyer will not start on Sunday as the Marlins give him extra rest heading into the All-Star break. Makes a lot of sense. He barely threw any innings last year and obviously they're going

to have to monitor his inning somewhat in the second half as well. Vinnie Pass Guantino VP could return Friday against the Orioles. We spoke a lot about him the other day. More of a corner infielder at this point. Mostly because, well, A, he wasn't very good before he got hurt. And B, first base is just so, so, so loaded.

You know, one of the names, Chris, I was updating the rankings earlier, Luis Garcia. Yeah, I don't know what to do

with that dude. I didn't know how high to move him up. I moved him inside my top 20 at first base, but it is such a loaded position. Originally, I put him up to like 13 or 14,

but then I was like, I don't know, Luis Garcia over, like, proven guys that have done it before. I know how hot he is. I totally get that. And I think I moved him up to like 11 or 12 at second base.

But yeah, he was an interesting one. It's legitimately tough. I was going to bring him up for the later segment. But it's, I mean, one, he just doesn't play against lefties at all. Like, I think he started seven of 32 games against lefties or something this season. So it just. With how hot he is, you have to think that he starts to play more. But they're not.

Like, I think it's two in the last month. I think since the start of June. I agree he's been an incredible second in the major in RBI. That's unbelievable. But like, you'd rather have Jonathan or Ronda, right? I still have a Ronda ahead of him. I still have Devers ahead of him.

There's some that like I tend to anchor to my preseason expectations. Like Michael Bush, he has turned it around somewhat, but it's been a pretty disappointing season. A lot of the underlying stuff is pretty bad, but I think I'd still rather have. have Bush overall. It's just like Kyle Stowers has been really good lately.

And he was obviously much better than Garcia last season. Bryce Eldridge plays every day and has a ton of upside. I moved him up to. Isak Paredes has been awesome for like a month and a half now. And basically is having the season we hoped he would have, which is putting him, I think he's got like 17 or 18 homers, I think.

So it's just a really, really tough position to break through. if you have any kind of weaknesses. Issaac Prattus only has 12 homers, by the way. I completely overstated that. I moved Garcia up to 17th at first base, which is just ahead of Josh Naylor, Michael Bush, Christian Walker, Tyler Soder's from Caglio and Eldridge.

Yeah, I think that's reasonable. I don't know if it's right, but that's where I stuck him in there. Like Josh Naylor's just having a weird season. I know he's stealing a bunch of bases, but that's kind of all he's doing. He's been down this year. And actually Christian Walker has hot as hot as he, the start he got off. to over the past month he's really come back down to earth as well yeah he's been up and down because i think he he had a really good couple of weeks there in between so it's been

yeah it's tough i think like 15 through like 26 at first base is real like and that's not even including like curtis meets having a really good season and and starting to play every day and ryan o'herne's been awesome and yeah it's louisa rias is doing what he does and he doesn't he J. Rumpfield has been really good. It's, first base is just crazy stacked right now. And I think it depends a lot on what format you're in, road over head to head.

But it's just really hard to make sense of first base right now. I've been with you guys on the podcast for six years. Now, this is far and away the best first base has ever been. I agree. I know first base has been pretty bad the last few years. Yeah. And I know back in the day,

it was like first base, you know, you had all these sluggers and it was a premium fan. position. You'd get power and batting average and all that. And you know, that kind of slowed down in the past couple of years. But even the high end of first basis here is absolutely loaded. With the exception of one, Vlad Jr., my most confusing player to rank.

We'll talk about him later. Where did we... By the way, First base, I'm as a whole this season. I have a 115 WRC plus. Last year it was 109. So which is pretty big difference from one year... Sound like a lot, but six points of WRC plus is pretty massive. It's about 30 points of OPS.

And that's over a huge sample as well. So yeah, that's a really big number. Yeah, we left off with Vinny P. Zach Gelloff left early with a right knee injury. John Carlos Stanton has resumed running after receiving a PRP injection. Connor prelip was placed in the IL with a blister on his left middle finger. Mark Vientos was diagnosed with a fractured right hand and will be placed in the IL, the Guardians option, Cooper Ingle, back to the miners after just 24 played appearances.

So not exactly sure why they called them up. Yeah, I mean, they gave him a chance. I mean, he's been bad. Like, he's two for 21, but. And just couldn't play the field. So, yeah, he threw, he threw the ball into the stands and cost him a run. One of the games, that was crazy. Owen Casey was placed in the aisle with a right cash strain and is expected to miss two to four weeks.

And Yankees prospect, George Lombar Jr. he's on the aisle with a finger injury. He has resumed hitting and fielding. He's close to return at AAA. And there was a quote from Brian Cashman that George Lombard could make an impact at some point in the second half. So just a prospect to be on your radar

for later on in the season. Let's fire up the Worryometer on a Friday for some blow-up pitcher starts. And we already spoke about Bryce Miller. Reed Detmers is kind of turning back into Redetmers. Not great at the Rangers. Reigning's five runs allowed.

Six strikeouts to one walk. The K-to-walk stuff remains great for him. But three homers allowed in this one. He used his fastball more than this start. It got hit really hard. Six hard hits, 101.8, average exit velocity. And we don't want more fastballs from Reid Detmer's.

Over his last four starts, a 740 ERA, a 169 whip. Where is Reed Detmer's, Chris, on the Waryometer? He's a 10 on the Redetmer's Ometer. He's doing the thing. He's doing the Dettmer's thing. I mean, it's just incredibly funny that as soon as everybody buys into Reed Detmers, he has a stretch where he gives up, I think it's now 17 runs in 20 and two-thirds

innings. I think you have to be worried. I think a seven or eight. I think the bigger question is more calibrating the dropometer because we've got a lot of interesting pitchers out there right now. now. We've talked a ton about it over the past week or so. I wasn't on the pod last night, but Troy Melton might be at the top of that list with the way he's looked since that velocity jump. But got Ian Seymour and Joey Cantillo and Griffin Jacks and Sean Burke. And I mean,

there's just so many guys. And if you held on to Red Demers throughout all of it, you might have missed out on a bunch of those guys. And I think at this point, I might rather have those guys than Reed Detmer's, which is, I think, something of a warning with every single one of those pitchers is the sample sizes we're dealing with with all of them are very small. And so you do have to expect that some of them will disappoint us. And I think that's what we're seeing with Red Demers. And it is easier, I think, to write Red Demers off because we have this long track record of him being a really interesting pitcher who's not actually that good. And it kind of looks like he might have just turned back into that. I know.

the peripherals are still very good. It just kind of feels like McKenzie Gore, where I just don't know if it's worth the headache. Like, he should probably be rostered by somebody. I don't think I want it to be me. So answer your own question, Chris. Would you drop them for any of those names you just mentioned? If they're still out there.

I mean, you might have missed out, but... I think so, yeah. All right, let's talk about Drew Rasperson, who got beat up by the Yankees. Two and a third, seven hits, six runs allowed, a career high, six earned runs. That's now five or more earned runs in. Back-to-back starts here for Rasperson,

which is just so weird. Like, the way everything was trending, this Yankees offense was just absolutely in the dumpster. Drew Rasperson, yes, coming off a bad start, but he was amazing before that. And he has owned the Yankees in his career. So it was just a really unexpected outing that happened here for Raspicson. Where did you put him on the Wariometer?

This is two really bad starts. Only four strikeouts in his last seven and third innings across those two starts. I don't really have a good sense of why this has gone wrong for him, though. His fastball velocity was fine in this one. Pitch mix was pretty normal. Same fast four seamer cutter, sinker-heavy approach as always. I'm pretty unmoved right now, maybe a two or three on the Worryometer. just he's been so good for so long.

That's right. Not just this season. He was awesome last year. I mean, they showed the graphic during the game. Since the start of 2021, he has the lowest ERA in the American League. Yeah. Even better than Terrick's Google, which is crazy to think about it. And he, the one thing I guess you can say is, when we've talked about this a lot,

the rays have taken the restrictor plates off of him. That's a thing, right? A restrictor plate? I have no idea. Sounds like something from a video game. whatever restricts, they have taken them off. He's throwing 90 plus pitches pretty regularly this season. And this is a guy who has missed a ton of time with injuries

and has not thrown more than 150 innings at any point in his major league career. And so I do wonder if maybe he's just slowing down a little. They're asking a little too much from him, and maybe they'll have to pull back on the pitch count. We'll see more of these early exits. That's not what I'm hoping for, but I think they have to be, having those conversations with Rasmussen. But no, I wouldn't worry about him right now.

No. I agree completely. I would have it at like a two or a three. The only thing is the last point you mentioned there that he's dealt with a lot of injuries the past couple of years and obviously being very limited last season. And they've been pushing him more this year. So perhaps those innings and the workload is starting to catch up a little bit with Raspicin.

But I think it's him just kind of like stumbling into the break and getting some time off here. I would expect him to be really, really good coming out of the all-star break here for Jurassic's. So not really concerned about that one. Michael Waka got clobbered here by the Mets, four and two-thirds, six hits, six runs, three walks, five strikeouts.

He allowed a home run this one. Lots of hard contact, 92.7 average EV against him in this one. And look, I think we kind of know the Michael Waka thing. He goes through stretches, he's mostly usable. I kind of have this image, Chris, of, there's like a prototype of like a streamer, streamer prototype pitcher that like, they don't get many strikeouts,

they have okay command, they manage to outperform their peripherals, and to me, Michael Walker is like the king of that group. He's like the tippity top of Andrew Abbott and Shane Buz and Michael McGreevy and Andre Palante and all those guys. Like Michael Walker is the very top of those guys.

But he has been struggling recently. Last eight starts, 533, ERA, 14, Whip. So where's Michael Waka on the Wariometer? Yeah, I think the term would be to use our friend, Nick Pollock, get better, Nick. I know he got hurt recently. What was that about it? The guy Taurus Achilles playing tennis. Jeez, man. That's my, that's my biggest fear. I know two people have ruptured their Achilles in the last

like two months. My cousin did it. My cousin's 25. That's, that's rough. Yeah. I had a buddy who tore one and then like came back the next year. Or the other one. No. I just give up. But anyway, Nick refers to this type of pitcher as a Holly. A Holly? Or Toby's.

Okay. He's got the Tobis who are like the really boring ones. And then Hollies are like the better versions of that. So like the good versions of Chris Bassett or Marcus Stroman is the way he puts it. Where it's like, you know there's not a ton of upside, but they're usually pretty dependable. You're usually happy to have them around. The thing with Waka, though, is he is also not. the kind of pitcher you're ever really going to regret letting go of.

There's just like even the good version of him is mid three's ERA, 7K per 9. 120-ish whips, something like that. Yeah, like it's useful. It's good to have a round, but on the whole, I think I would rather be chasing the guys we've been talking about, like Troy Melton rather than relying on Michael Walker, even if the likeliest outcome is Michael Walker is a more productive pitcher.

And obviously, I think that changes in the head-to-head points league because you're going to get six innings plus from him pretty regularly. You're not going to get that from a lot of these younger guys we've talked about. But I still think on the whole, Walker is just a, he is just a guy. He's a pretty good guy. But I think he's just a guy. He's the king of the Jags, the king of the mid, whatever you want to call it. That's Michael Walker. And I have a drop-a-meter last one here.

Bryce Elder he had another bad start He has a let Over his last seven starts He's an 847 ERA a 177 whip I was shocked to see he's still 74% rostered Yeah 11 on the drop-o meter

100 yeah Like like like This is what eventually happens with these guys And you can yell at us and say Oh you guys are idiots Bryce Elder's got a 212 ERA How could you not rank him? And it's like Because we know what we're talking about

and he's not very good and these things can just happen and bad pitchers can run low ERAs for a couple of months, but it doesn't mean they're good. Presselters not very good. We have a pretty long track record here. Yes, drop him for all of the waiver wire pitchers we've been talking about recently. Anyone.

Let's take our final break. And when we return, I do have some waiver options. We'll talk some confusing players to rank. We'll do that right after this. Instacart knows that some people go bananas about getting the perfect, well, banana. Some want them green. Some want them ripe.

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and let's get into the waiver options from Thursday. He'll try and move a little bit quicker through this, but Bryce Eldridge, I know he's 74% rostered. It feels like that number should be 100%. First base is super loaded. We've been talking about it, but he just hit his eighth home run. He's been struggling a little bit in July so far,

but overall the numbers are still very good. He's keeping the strikeouts manageable, hitting the ball hard, expected stats are great. 74% rostered. I just feel like that should, I feel like he's a must roster player, Chris. Yeah, I agree, but How many must roster first baseman can there be?

Yeah. You know, let's say you're in a 12-team Rotel league. Well, in theory, 36 first baseman could be starting. Right. But you've got Schwabor, you've got Otani, that guy. Are those the only, like, must-start DH-only guys? Christian Yelich, I guess. Yelich.

But I think I'd rather, I might rather start Price Eldridge. at this point than Christian Jalich. I think so too. So you've got, let's say, realistically, 28 first baseman could start. Well, some of those are going to be third baseman. I know third base is weaker, but it's,

it's really hard. It's really hard when we're already talking about 30 good first baseman. But yes, I do think in a vacuum, Bryce Eldridge should be 100% roster. It might be harder to actually make that happen in practice, but yes, I agree. So I'm looking at it.

I'm trying to find names that are rostered in more CBS leagues than Eldridge that I would drop for him. Spencer Steer is one. I know some people might be using him in the outfield or something like that. Yeah, he's outfield eligible as well. He has fallen off. So I would make that swap. T.J. Rumfield has been very good and I get like wanting to use him when he's at home.

Obviously they're on the road this week. But his upside is still nowhere near what Bryce Eldridge could be. So I would make that swap. In a vacuum. if we're just talking first base, I would rather have Bryce Eldridge than Casey Schmidt. It's just Casey Schmidt is literally eligible everywhere, so you probably need him around.

He's just more usable for fantasy because of that. Like, it's tough. As good as Isok Paredes has been, I still think the upside is higher for Eldridge. So I would, in a shower league, I would make that swap too. I think that's fair. And they're not ranked very far apart for me.

So if you wanted to make that move, I think Eldridge is more talented than T.J. Rumfield. I know he's been very good, but the underlying numbers don't pack it up. And it's not just a course field thing. He's been good on the road. So I have trouble buying into that. But yeah, it's, it's tough. There are like Cody Clemens doesn't need to be 72% rostered.

No, no, no, no. Cody Clemens is good, man. I dug it to his stack cast stuff earlier today. I don't believe. Like, I believe that his stack cast data is good. I do not believe his stack cast data will remain this good forever. That might be right, but I was surprised to see, like, he hits the ball very hard, his strikeout rate is lower. I get it, but I-top 80 and like ex-Woba this year.

But I don't have any belief in it. I would rather have Eldridge than Cody Clemens. Like, don't get me wrong, but I was a little surprised to see some of the underlying stuff really good for Cody Clemens as well. Some outfielders here, I mean, another day, another Esmerlin Valdez home run. He hit his seventh home run, 15 games since returning. not actually I think it's a little bit more than that but over his last 15 he's hitting 382 with five home runs and a 1208 OPS

still a 32% strikeout rate it's getting a little bit better but that number is still high Dom Canzone hit his 15th home run and his underlying data we've talked about this really good let's hope that what Jerry DePoto said about Canzone playing every day is actually true moving forward Chris who would you rather have between as Merlin Valdez and Dom Canzone feels tough

I would probably go Man, it's really tough It's one because it's hard to parse How much of Dom Kanzone's underlying numbers It's just because he never plays against lefties so far And now he's going to start playing against lefties So we'll get a better sense of who he is I lean Valdez I think but

I think so too But I also think the likeliest outcome with Valdez Still is This is like a Reese Heinz situation And he's gonna the strikeouts are going to become too much eventually. So, Valdez's higher ceiling, lower floor.

But I leaned Valdez over Kenzo. One outfielder for speed is Jason Dominguez, he's been doing some things as of late, two for four with his sixth throwing base. And over his last 20 games, he's hitting 260 with two home runs and six steals. And we know he's going to play. They don't have anyone else to throw out there in the outfield.

So 45% rostered. I think Dominguez is like a slight tier below those other names. we just talked about, but in particular, if you need speed, I think he's a good name to go after. Some corner infielders, Royce Lewis, two for four with his ninth home run, including that bloops single after trying to bunt. 29 games since returning, he's hitting 263, six homers,

three steals, and OPS over 800. And Caleb Durbin, he keeps on hitting as well, one for four with his ninth home run. Last 36 games now, he's hitting 297, eight homers, six steals, and OPS over 900. Chris, who do you like more as a corner infield type? Royce Lewis or Caleb Durbin. Unless you need speed, I would go with Royce Lewis.

He looked really good since returning from AAA. He was awesome in AAA. He reworked his swing. I think it was a... He added a leg kick or expanded his leg kick while he was down at AAA. Durbin has also, I believe, totally reworked his setup. I think I saw that he has gone from having a very open stance to a very closed one. over the past couple of months.

So it's not like there's nothing there, but I do think Royce Lewis is just more talented. So if you need speed, I'd go Durbin. Otherwise, I would go Lewis. All right. I do have three deep outfielders here. Jake Mangum, four for five with a sock into shoe, his second home run, his 18th steal.

And he has set out just two games since June 7th, so he is playing a lot. And over his last 34 games, he's hitting 360 with two home runs, 18 run score, 12 steals, and OPS over 800. Lane Thomas is actually getting some run here with the Royals. He has started 13 straight.

And since the start of June, he's hitting 254 with six homers, 20 RBI, stolen base. He's hitting the ball really hard during that stretch. And Griffin Conine, from your mashing Marlins, three for four with his fourth home run. His underlying stuff is pretty interesting. He strikes out a lot. I think he's going to play more now that Owen Casey has gone on the IL.

But three pretty deep outfielders, Chris. any interest in Jake Mangum, Lane Thomas, Griffin, Conine. So it was, he's set up two games since June 7th, you said? Yes. Why'd you pick June 7th? I just noticed he's been playing a tonne since then. Well, you know what happened on June 7th, right? No.

Oh, no, Cruz got hurt on June 7th. That was the last game he played. Oh, and he could be back after the day. And he will probably be back, if not right after the All-Star break, pretty soon after the All-Star break. So that makes it hard. to buy into Jake Mangum. I think he's decent.

I think he is in that like in that like Jake McCarthy type of way where should hit for a good batting average, steal some bases. I don't think there's much else there. But I just don't think he's going to play much once O'Neill Cruz is back. So that's the thing that's hard with Jake Mango.

Well, you know what? They have a Rossal Resource has their D.H right now is Tyler Callahan and Marcel O'una. Like they might be able to just move some guys around. You know, like maybe as Merlin Valdez as goes to DH and Mangum and

O'Neill Cruz could just stay in the outfield. I wouldn't be surprised if they did that. I think this is a team that should probably be just putting their best players out there and especially

defensively. I think they need to cover for O'Neil Cruz when he's back. So it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world, but I just, I'm not sure he's going to play

every day when O'Neill Cruz is back. If he does, I think he's a good source of batting average and steals. The other two guys, Conan does hit the ball hard. He's a big muscular man, but I don't think the baseball skills are super strong there. So I think it's going to be pretty iffy. And then I don't know, Lane Thomas just like back from the dead.

Well, this is one where has Lane Thomas ever, like if you just took the stolen bases out, I guess he had the one season where he had like 28 homers or something. Other than that, if he wasn't stealing bases, Lane Thomas has never really been someone we're interested in. he has one steal in the last 34 game. So I just, I have a lot of trouble getting excited about that. And here is an NL only name for you. Jim Jarvis of the Atlanta Braves, three for five with

his first career home run. He is 25 years old. He was having a pretty strong season in the minors, where he was hitting 313 with six homers, 32 steals, an 868 OPS, good plate discipline. They, I think Hassan Kim is either hurt or they sent him

down to the minors, so there is some playing time available at shortstop, so in the deepest of leagues. NL only there's a name for you, Jim Jarvis. Waiver Wire pitchers and two names in the shallowest of formats. They're mostly rostered at this point, but Logan Henderson in his first start back from the IL,

five and a third, three hits, three runs, four strikeouts to one walk. He actually left with one earned run and two runners on base. Chad Patrick came in, gave up a three-run homer, so unfortunately those runs were charged to Logan Henderson. You know what? Logan Henderson still has never given up three earned runs in a start at the major league level. More than three earned runs. I don't, well, before this,

he had never given up. That's true. And he didn't. Some, some other guy did. So I'm, I'm going to stick with that stat. He's up to 81% rostered, but it still could be out there. And I guess in some 10 teamers. Trevor Rogers, another quality start. This one against the Cubs. Six innings, one run, four strikeouts. He had 11 whiffs on 89 pitches. And over his last seven starts now, it's a 173 ERA, a 101 whip. Not getting many strikeouts at all. Kind of perplexing. What I noticed is he's getting a lot of fly balls.

And he's so far done a good job avoiding barrels and homers. So he's a lot of like weekly hit fly balls that he's getting right now. But he is performing and he looked really good in the second half last year. Chris, who do you like more? Logan Henderson or Trevor Rogers? Oh, Henderson, for sure. Some questions about whether he can hold up, some questions about how real his success is. But I think what we've seen, I remain very optimistic about him.

Rogers, I remain very confused. And I was confused about his success last year. I was confused about why he was so bad to start this season after being good. I'm just confused by Trevor Rogers. I don't really buy it. but I guess he's good. I don't know. I really have no idea.

So I had Scott do this yesterday, and I guess I'll have you do the same thing right now. I had him rank like all these pitchers that we've been talking about recently, and this is the order that I have them in Chris. So honestly, if you want to just point out anywhere that you'd be, that you're different, just go for it.

But I have Ian Seymour at the top of this recent list, then Sean Burke, then Logan Henderson, Troy Melton, Joey Cantillo, Trevor Rogers, and Jake Bennett. I have put Jake Bennett in this group. I am very encouraged by what he's done so far.

So those are seven names. We've talked about them a lot, but that's the order that I currently rank them. Is Melton only RP eligible right now? I think he has... No, he should be SP eligible, right? Okay. Sorry, I was just looking at rankings.

I think I'd go Melton at the top of this group. and then I mostly agree with your ranking. I might go Burke over Seymour, just the raise of it all. You never know how they're going to use him. I think I'd go Melton, Burke, Seymour Henderson, Cantilla Rogers, Bennett. But I think they're all interesting.

They should all be widely rostered. And it's just, I think, Melton with the velocity jump since mechanical tweak three starts to go, a little more strikeout upset than some of the other guys. And again, Rob Bryce Elder for all of them. Literally any of them.

Anything here with this group of Wayward Pitchers. Merrill Kelly, seven innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts at the Padres. Bailey Ober looked pretty good in his return. Five innings, one run, five strikeouts to one walk against the Guardians. Brady Singer went toe-to-to-toe with Jesus Lazardo. That was a complete pitcher's duel.

Seven-in-a-third, one-run, five strikeouts. Anything here with these three, Chris? Singer, Ober, and Merrill Kelly. I mean, Merrill Kelly is very much in that Michael Walker mold where when things are going well, he's going to be really valuable. And for the most part before this season, he's been really valuable. He's just been a disaster this year. So I get not having any faith in him.

I can't with all those guys being available in 20 to 40 percent of leagues like we just talked about, I can't exactly argue that there's much interest in Merrill Kelly. But, you know, another couple of good starts. and if Merrill Kelly ends up having a 3-ERA the rest of the way, I wouldn't be surprised at all. As for the other ones, Bailey Ober, I know he's been pretty good this season or at least has had moments where he's been pretty good. I don't really buy it at all. Velocity is still down to 88 miles an hour with the fastball. He's never been a hard thrower, but this is extremely low even for him.

I just don't think this is going to work in the long run. So I don't have any faith in Bailey O'Ber. I don't think he's someone who needs to be rostered widely. Two sparps for those who play in Head-Tead Points League. Sean Mania, a strong start here against the Royals. Seven innings, three runs. Two of those earned six strikeouts to one walk. Two homers allowed in this one.

But, you know, he's been up and down since he's been back in the rotation. His last start before this was pretty bad. He's 24% rostered. And Anthony Kay pitched well against the Red Sox. Five and a third, two runs, four strikeouts. 12 whiffs on 92 pitches. He's had some moments as well. doesn't typically go deep into his starts.

I wouldn't have interest in either of these guys outside of points leagues, but I think they're kind of in that back end, I could see using them as an RP in a points league discussion. I have Anthony K. in a couple of points leagues. I think I have Shamanai in one. They are useful pitchers in points leagues because of the spark eligibility. I'd rather, you know, especially, I'd rather have three sparts like that to select through than,

a lot of the low end boring closers. So they have value in that. And the deepest of names, I think both might just be spot starts here, but Patrick Sandoval with the Red Sox and Carson Wisenhunt with the Giants, they both pitch

pretty well, again, the deepest of the deep, Chris, but did you see anything that has you encouraged here from Sandoval or Wizant Hunt? No, not really. Sand of all velocity was okay, but he is someone who

one I just don't know what the role is for him and two I it's been a while since he's been good I don't know has Petrovilever had like a good season

I think he had one he had like one good season I remember yeah he had that one 291 ERA in 148 and two-thirds innings it was about a strikeout per inning 134 whip that was two he's mostly he's mostly been good in like

Reed Detmer's kind of way. He's been promising. He's had flashes. And look, the Red Sox are a good pitch development team. Like, I think they're not quite the Brewers, but they're a team that gets the most out of guys for the most part.

And so I think they could squeeze something out of him, but it's, I don't think we have to jump on it yet. And then, Wisenhunt, I mean, he was a prospect at one point. He had elbow surgery. Is that why he hasn't up or is we just down the minors?

No, he's been pitching in the minors, yeah. Okay. But he's made two starts at the major league level. He has as many walks of strikeouts. I don't think there's much reason to be interested in him yet. All right. Well, we did kind of run out of time here, but I needed a topic for FBT Express. So if you want to hear about confusing players to rank, we will do that on the FBT Express episode, which will be out on Saturday.

So make sure to tune into that. Let's wrap up here with some less. Leftovers and on the hitting side, Matt Olson is picking the power back up, has five home runs in his past seven games. Brian Reynolds, man, I just want to give this guy some love. He hit his 14th home run,

and he is just having a massive bounce back season. He entered Thursday as the 19th overall hitter in Roto, the 10th overall hitter in head-to-head points. And that's not just an outfield. That's overall among all hitters. Been amazing this year. It's been awesome against both lefties and righties, too. Just no real split issues for him.

He's just been terrific for a long time now. See what happens when you get a little support around Brian Reynolds in that Pirates lineup. Juan Soto's doing Juan Soto Things last seven games. He's hitting 333, four homers, 11 RBI and a steal. Carson Benj has four straight multi-hit games, starting to run a little bit again as well, which I think just the other day, I said, you know, it would be nice if Carson Bench started running. And here he's got two steals in his last four, so nice to see that.

Ben Rice, enjoying his, homers before the derby ruins him for the second half, obviously. Two for four with a double dong, five RBI, and he has six home runs in his past nine games. He was slumping pretty hard before that. I just, I really am the, uh,

the, we do the, he can't keep getting away with it. Meme from Breaking Bad a lot, but the other one is Walt, handcuffed in the car, screaming. That's me every time a promising young player

gets in the home run derby. not to be clear because I believe in the home run derby curse. I do not. It's because I think everyone is very silly and overreacts. And I just, like Jordan Walker being in the home run derby. Yep. He's not going to be as good in the second half as he wasn't the first half. He might be, he might fall apart.

It's entirely possible. It's Jordan Walker. We do not have a very long track record. And people are like, oh, the home run derby ruined him. And it's like, no, that's just, maybe he just wasn't as good as he wasn't the first half. It's like the Madden curse. The guys who get put on the cover of me. Madden are guys coming off of career years.

That's definitely real. I mean, that one, a lot of its injuries, which, I don't know. It's not real. Curses aren't real. Who's on the cover of Madden this year? I have no idea. I couldn't tell you either. Chase DeLauder has looked better since coming off the aisle,

one for four with his ninth home run, 11 games since returning 362, two homers, and a stolen base. Josh Naylor, one for four, with two more seals. He's now up to 18, and he's, he's like on pace to eclipse 30 steals in back-to-back seasons. It's just been a weird year for Josh Naler. It's only eight homers of 665 OPS. His quality of contact is down.

His pop-up rate is up. He's also been really bad at home at T-Mobile Park, which is a bad place to hit. But last year, in 25 games at T-Mobile Park, he was amazing. He had no PS over 1,000. So I don't really know what to make of all that, but it has been a weird year for him.

Jake Bowers picking things back up. hit his 17th home run, has three home runs at his past 11. Jordan Walker, I remember talking with you, Chris, it was like a week or two ago where he was struggling and we're like, all right, let's see if he can bounce back now. He's done that.

Last 10 games, 353, 4 homers, 15 RBI and 2 steals. So, love to see him put that to rest. And Brandon Nimmo, 2 for 4 with a sock in a shoe, his ninth homer, his fourth steal. Weird season for him too. Not in the same way that it's weird for Josh Nehler, but the underlying numbers have been great all year for Brendan Nemo. He's hitting the ball hard, expected stats are there.

He's just been terrible at home in Texas, which is another bad place to hit. Bad place to pit. So I kind of feel like maybe he's just going to underperform his expected stats all season here for Brendan Nemo. Lots of names. Chris, anything you want to touch on? Yeah, the one that jumped out to me was Chase DeLotter, and I saw an article on MLB.com, I think two or three. days ago where he talked about how going on the IL with that rib injury was kind of a blessing for him in a way because remember this is a guy who's basically played like one full season in three or four years since being drafted. I think it was drafted in 2022 and he had like

155 games in the minor league level. So he had never played like three months straight, not even in college because he dealt with a ton of injuries in college too. So, you know, he said it was like a little reset, a little chance for him to kind of get his legs back under him and, you know, he's been very good since coming back off the IL. Maybe there's something there. The underlying numbers have still been very good. I still think he's a very good hitter. Probably not a great power hitter, but, you know, I could see 15 to 20 homers with a

bunch of, uh, with a great batting average. He's, I think we've made the Michael Brantley comp with him a few times, maybe like the later career, Brantley, who wasn't running as much, uh, but it feels like a good one. That's a good player. Yeah. All right, some pitching leftovers. Jesus Lozardo was filthy against the Reds. Seven shot-out innings with 11 strikeouts.

He had 20 whiffs on 96 pitches, 12 of those on his sweeper. And he has been throwing that sweeper a lot over his last four starts, like 40% of the time a lot. And, you know, he got off to the slow start this year. But in his last 14 starts since April 28th, it's a 239 ERA, a 112 whip, 103 strikeouts over 83 innings pitch. So, Jesus Lazzardo, like the actual ERA and Whip is a little bit elevated,

but he's been money for basically the past two months or so. And Nathan Avaldi had a mixed start again. Like this is kind of a microcosm of his season. Six innings, four runs, three of those earned, 10 strikeouts, 23 whiffs on 99 pitches is just bananas stuff here. For Nathan of all the, the strikeouts are out. He has like the highest swinging strike rate of his career. For some reason, it's just his ERA has been elevated all season.

I keep waiting for it to come down, but it's, I don't know, it's kind of a weird one, Chris. Yeah, I think to borrow another Nick Pollockism, but this was a, this was a careful Icarus start for Avaldi. He was one-earned run through six innings and then came back out for the seventh. gave up a couple more before getting chased. Would look a lot better if it was six innings, one earned run with 10 strikeouts. But yeah,

it's been a weird season for Avaldi because he's gone from really, really good quality of contact last season to pretty bad this year. And he has, for the most part, in his career, been a pretty average quality of contact guy, better in the second half of his career,

but still, overall not like an outlier who limits hard contact really well. So I think maybe there's just a little regression there. But I also don't think he's a four ERA guy or anything. I think he's up to 404. I think it's going to be more like 370 the rest of the way with good strikeout numbers, good whip. That's what I expect from Nathan Evaldi moving forward.

The call to the bullpen for the Orioles. Tyler Wells entered in the eighth inning with the game tied. He was facing the top of the Cubs lineup. He allowed a run on two hits. The Orioles re-took the lead. Andrew Kittridge got the ninth. He allowed a single but picked up his second save. So I think

Tyler Wells is their highest leverage reliever right now and obviously facing the top of the Cubs lineup with the game tied is a massive spot in the game and he didn't perform in it. But I would still bet on Tyler Wells getting the next save opportunity for Baltimore. For the Guardians, Kate Smith struck out two for his league leading 27th save.

For the Red Sox, several oldest Chapman picked up his 19th. For the Tigers, Kenley Jansson got the ninth with a three-run lead. He allowed a hit and a walk but picked up his 11th save. For the Phillies, Yawand-Doron got the ninth with a one-run lead. He allowed a hit, but he struck out two for his 23rd save. And for the D-backs, Paul Seawald, a clean ninth inning for his 21st save of the year. To stream or not to stream on Friday, we have Zach Lattel against the Yankees, Zebby Matthews against the Angels

Kyle Leahy against the Braves Brandon Sproat at the Pirates Aaron Nola and Jack Flaherty are facing each other Brandon Young against the Royals and Luis Castillo at Tampa Bay Castillo should be fine Zebby Matthews could be good It's risky but could be a lot of strikeouts there against the Angels

could be a lot of home runs as well I don't think I really like anyone else Jack Flaherty's doing some interesting stuff lately he's been pitching better. I wouldn't be shocked if he had a good start against the Phillies. Yeah,

I think Scott gave out Brandon Young against the Royals. I think that one could be okay, but I would probably go Castillo Zebby Young. And then, yeah, I'm a little intrigued by Flaherty as well, but that is definitely boomer bust. On Saturday, we have gauge jump at the White Sox.

Tyler Malley is facing the Rockies in San Francisco. Shane Drohan at the Pirates, Peter Lambert, at the Rangers, and Renola Lopez at the Cardinals. I do not love Saturday's options. Gage jump, I mean, I know the last couple of starts have been iffy, and Muntatakaa Murakami will be back, but I think he's the most talented of these,

and it's not a terrible matchup, so I think he's okay. I don't really like anyone else. Maybe Ronaldo Lopez at St. Louis. It's not a bad matchup. I just don't have a lot of faith in him going more than five innings. I think any of Lopez, Lambert, and Drohan could be fine on Saturday. Lake Lambert's actually been kind of consistent. Shane Droins done some nice things.

The pirates are much better against righties than they are against lefties. So I can see Drowin being okay in that one as well. So yeah, I would probably put Gage up at the top, but those other three I think could be okay. On Sunday, Seth Lugo at the Orioles, Andrew Abbott against the Cubs, Ian Seymour against the Mariners, J.T. Ginn at the White Sox,

Noah Schultz against the athletics, Trevor McDonald against the Rockies in San Francisco. I apologize to anyone who used them earlier. this week. I think I said to use him against the Blue Jays and he got absolutely yeah that's a tough one I love the matchup but I don't trust Trevor McDonald I like JT. Ginn I like Ian Seymour and Andrew Abbott's really risky against the Cubs but yeah he's pitching well right now I would put Seymour at the top of the list and then JT Ginn yeah the Abbott one scares me the Cubs are really good against

lefties but Lugo at the Orioles he's coming off a tarbist starting against the men Noah Schultz. Like, I'm intrigued by what Schultz can do, but I wouldn't want to use them. I guess if I had to choose a third, it would be Abbott. But I'm pretty nervous about that one. We are going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.

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