Fantasy Baseball Today - Burning Questions & What to Pay Attention to in Spring Training (3/18 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 18, 2022

What matters in spring training (1:07)? What doesn't matter as much? ... Let's get into this season's toughest questions, starting with when to draft Fernando Tatis (8:25). ... When might we see Ronald Acuña (13:06)? ... Will the vaccine mandates derail any players (16:30)? ... What's the latest on Jacob deGrom's elbow (19:45)? ... Can Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich bounce back (23:18)? ... Should we expect more of the deadened ball (27:30)? ... Should we still expect service time manipulation (30:30)? ... News and notes: Jack Flaherty went for a second opinion, Jonathan Villar signed with the Cubs and more (36:16). ... What happened in Thursday's spring training games (44:32)? ... How many closers do we know for sure (46:42)? ... Is Mike Trout healthy (50:14)? ... What's the latest on Trevor Bauer (51:55)? ... Have we seen the last of sticky substances (54:55)? ... How much does Justin Verlander have left (56:36)? 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Come into fantasy baseball today on March 18th. Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White here to talk about the biggest questions in fantasy baseball this season, plus a few more small signings and some more news to catch you up on. But first, I have a burning question for you, Scotty. Are you ready? Yeah, you ready? Yes, I guess. I need to know what I'm ready for.

Okay. No, that was the burning question. No, I'm just kidding. Spring training games started on Thursday. So I wanted to ask, what actually matters this time of year? I know that you'll be writing the spring training notebook. And what things are you paying attention to most? Hmm.

Okay. So the things I pay attention to most are actually quotes, I would say. If I could narrow it down to one thing, things that people are saying, players themselves, managers. They are... either revealing changes that they've made in the case of players or in the case of managers, you know, revealing their plans. For instance, one of the biggest revelations last spring that I don't think enough people paid attention to

given his where he was drafted is Joe Madden laying out his very different plan for Shohei Otani that he was going to basically play him every day as a hitter. And fortunately, I got quite a bit of Otani because of that. We also learned last spring about Logan Webb's change-up. We learned about Trevor Rogers slider. We learned about Carlos Rodan and his velocity jump and some changes he made to his training that suggested he might be going to take a leap. I think Robbie Ray's velocity was up in spring training last year, too.

So, I mean, that would be another one, velocity, right? Velocity changes the development of new pitches for pitchers and how they're looking. But you can usually get all of this from things people are saying. So that's the main thing I pay attention to. Performance, I pay very little attention to, unless it's tied to. something that somebody's talking about, right? The velocity, the new pitch, the new swing mechanics, whatever. I'm trying to think of a good example of a guy who changed his swing

and then went off for, changes to swing in the off season, went off for a bunch of home runs in spring training. I'm sure it's happened before. I'm not thinking of a great example off the top of my head. But things like that. How often a player is going to play? is he going to be in a platoon? Really kind of more the commentary surrounding spring training

than what happens on the actual diamond. That's the important stuff. For sure. You hit on all of it, Scott. I mean, the velocity, I really want to pay attention to that if you're hearing anything about increased velocity or for that matter, decrease velocity is something that you should follow, maybe don't overreact too much to unless someone's like really down

compared to what we're used to. Right, because there's a buildup. Yeah, yeah. So it's going to take some time. Like every year, Zach Ranky shows up and he's throwing like 85 miles per hour in spring training. And then before you know it. And he doesn't sound very reassuring that he's going to be fine either. He's like, I don't know what's going on.

And then he's fine, right? Yeah. Last year he kind of wasn't fine, but he was fine at the beginning. Yeah. New pitches for sure. You mentioned Logan Webb, Trevor Rogers last year. So these are things that we're going to be paying close attention to. I like to follow lineups too, Scott.

I mean, specifically for fringe players, you know, maybe guys that were excited about Lane Thomas, Connor Joe, seeing where those guys are hitting in the lineup when a majority of the starters are in there together. So seeing if, you know, Connor Joe is actually hitting near the top still or if Lane Thomas is going to do that. And vice versa. If they're batting lower, then maybe we, you know, take a little bit of a step back on those players. So like to follow lineups. I think velocity, again, new pitches. And, you know, you mentioned some of the stuff that doesn't matter as much performance-wise, you know,

if Paul Goldschmidt goes out and hits eight home runs in spring training, sure, good, you know, you should be excited to draft him, but it doesn't mean that you should elevate him a round or two. I mean, he's already a top 50 pick, so. You should feel the same about Paul Goldschmidt, whether he hits eight home runs or zero. Right. Honestly.

Same thing for guys like, you know, if Max Schurzer goes out there and gets rocked, unless he says something about not feeling right or his velocity is down, that really should not matter to you at all. Right. Not at all. Now, there are particular players who ended last year with major health concerns or trying to think. There are probably other examples.

Just players, we have significant questions about how they're going to perform. And it's worth keeping an eye on their performance. Like, I'm interested in seeing how Max Muncie's spring plays out. if his production suffers, you know, that would raise a level of concern that I already have. I'm interested in seeing Jacob de Grom what he does this spring, how many innings he's able to go, what his velocity looks like, etc.

Clayton Kirshall, same thing. Shane Bieber for me, I want to see him. Yeah, sure. I mean, if his velocity isn't quite up to the usual standard, again, accounting for the fact that it's normal for it to be. be a little bit down at the start of spring training. But, you know, every team has beat riders, right? And they are on top of these things.

They're more on top of these things than we can possibly be because we're accounting for all 30 teams. And they only have to account for one. Yeah. So what we can do is kind of aggregate what all the beatwriters are saying into the most important things for our audience and that's what we try to do. Yep, for sure. I would say if you have Twitter, make sure to try and follow as many beat reporters as you can or if you have the athletic just going in and reading a couple articles per day. Same thing, MLB.com. If you can just go in and check out what those beat writers are writing about. Last thing I'll mention, you know,

we mentioned production doesn't matter all that much. I think it does for prospects, Scott, especially guys that are fighting for an opportunity to be on the opening day roster. Bobby with the Tigers guys. We'll talk a little bit more about Alec Thomas a little bit later on. There was an interesting note about him today. So definitely paying close attention to prospects as well this time of year.

We'll get into what happened in spring training later on. There was only four games, not really much going on yet, but we will talk about Bobby Dalbeck at a home run. Same thing with Andrew Vaughn. But let's get into burning questions, the players or circumstances

that we have the most questions about this upcoming season for fantasy, baseball. Scott has a great article on the site. He wrote about 25 burning questions. I don't know that we'll get to all 25 today, but you should go check it out anyway, CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. It took me a lot longer to write it than it's going to take us to talk about it. So please go check it out. Please support all of Scott and Chris's work. You know, I chip in writing a little bit here and there, but these guys are up to like all hours of the night and day writing and putting the work in. So please go support their writing if you have it to this point.

All right, so let's start with number one. When is the right time to draft Fernando Tatis? Obviously, Scott, he's been in the news a bunch recently, and we've talked about this quite a bit. He just had surgery. He's targeting a mid-June return, a.k.a. 60% of the season. What do you think, Scott?

When do you feel comfortable selecting Fernando Tatis? So I haven't totally decided yet, and you'll find that's true for a lot of these questions. I don't have a definitive answer to them. That's why they're major questions. that everybody kind of wonders about. Where I have him ranked right now is just behind, just behind that tier in the outfield

that includes Yelich and Bellinger. It also includes John Carlos Stanton and Mitch Hanager. I just made this move today. I moved Marcelo Zuna into that. Nelson Cruz is in that tier. I know it's not an outfielder, but he's in that tier from this. Tatease is right behind them

because I feel like that's the point when the quality of outfielders left, I don't feel so sure about what they're going to provide me this upcoming season that I'm willing to pass up the big score from Fernando Tatis. So I think that puts them just a little outside the top 100 for me overall. Yeah, I would be comfortable taking them at that point, except maybe not in the deepest leagues, but in standard-sized leagues, I think it's worth it for the upside. I was just researching when the report came out about Fernando Tatis.

It was March 14th. So I just set the NFBC ADP for the past three days, and there have been 10 drafts. Let's see how much Tatis has dropped. 10. So, yeah, it's, I mean, it's not nothing, but, you know, it gives us some kind of data to work with here. The ADP for Fernando Tatis during that time, 43.2. Wow, it hasn't fallen that much. That's surprising.

I mean, he was the number one overall player now going in the fourth round. So. Yeah. Yeah. It sounds like you and me are not going to wind up with a lot of Fernando Tatis. Well, it is a sample size of 10. And if you got, you know, I don't know what those leagues look like. How, how it's NFBC so people have money on it, I understand. But how like do they know not to take Fernando Tatis in the first round?

Like if even two of those 10 leagues, he goes in the first round, you know, that's going to skew it. the ADP. Well, I guess you can see the high, low, right? Yeah, so his min pick is 10, so yeah, someone probably mess up there, but his max pick is 99. Okay. All right, so. Yeah. And of course, NFBC, they sell out for upside a little harder because they're trying to beat hundreds of teams as opposed to just 10. Yep. And you know, what's interesting about the NFBC is there's no injured list. So people are drafting Tatis knowing that they have to use one of their seven bent spots without. Yeah, that's tough. But the other thing I want to mention regarding this,

is yes, they're saying mid-June, that leaves 60% of the season. First of all, if you're going to take Fernando Tatis, you've got to be the kind of person who knows you're going to stick with it even if your team's looking kind of shaky for the first 40% of the season. So keep that in mind.

It's obviously not a guarantee. He turns in, he returns in mid-June, coming off a wrist surgery with this kind of lengthy recovery period. there could be all manner of setbacks. So, yeah, I, despite with that NFBC ADP shows, I don't think I'm willing to have many higher than I do. All right, I did some quick math, so stick with me here.

ATC projections, they now have Fernando Tatis, ATC from our buddy Ariel Cohen, who we've had on multiple times this offseason. They have Tatis for 284 batting average, 25 homers, 14 steals, over 82 games. I took Brandon Crawford, who I consider a replacement-level fantasy shortstop. He goes around pick 200. I prorated his projections to cover 80 games, the 80 games that you miss from Fernando Tatis. And if you combine both, you get 268 batting average, 35 homers, 17 steals. Does that make you feel better, Scott, about maybe taking Tatis and just covering him with, like,

Brandon Crawford later on in your drafts? I can understand why somebody would do it. Yeah. But it's... It's still tough, man. It's asking everything to go smoothly. Yeah. And this is the sort of scenario where it may not.

So I want to feel confident I'm getting him at a value. Ultimately what it comes down to. Burning question number two. When will we see Ronald de Cunia again? And Scott, this is an ever-changing situation. Yes, it is. The past week has been a roller coaster with Ronald. I know. I'm moving them up my rankings. I'm moving them down my rankings.

This is the latest report that we got on Thursday. According to Jim Bowden, he had Alex Anthopoulos, I believe, on his Sirius XM radio show. And Alex Anthopoulos told him that the tentative plan for Ronald Acuna is to DH in a regular season game around April 21st and then start playing in the outfield one month later. So around May 21st, late May, somewhere around that time period. So Scott, if we're only missing two weeks from Ronald de Cunia, I think that he's probably back in the first round. Yes, yes. I moved him out of the second round. And now I have him back about where I started, which is early second round. So I'm going to be a little lower on him than the consensus. And I'm okay with that. I've maintained all along that to feel confident he's

he's not going to have his timetable pushback. I need to see him actually playing in a spring game. And I'm not sure we will. We certainly won't see him play the outfield in a spring game. So I've moved him back ahead of Luis Robert, but he's still behind Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker. He's still behind Raphael Devers and Freddie Freeman, who I just moved ahead of that other outfield duo.

It's the earliest timetable we've heard so far. Alex Anthopoulos said, I think the day they traded for Matt Olson, he said, don't expect to see Acuna in the outfield until late May. I mean, I don't know exactly what that meant because, okay, but there's the DH there. What does he mean? Well, he clarified now and expect to see him in the lineup in late April. Well, that's really all we care about in fantasy. So it's good news. I'm still going to play it a little cautiously. All right. I think in a Roto or Categories League, this is my may be too aggressive. And again, this situation is evolving, but I think that I would take him ahead of Trout, Betts, and Kyle Tucker, which I realize how aggressive that is that makes a Ronald

LeCunia a late first round pick. I think that's going to be, I think that's going to be in line with ADP, though. I think you're, I think you're with the consensus there. I just really, and this has always been my stance. I'm, like, I'm willing to give up some ceiling in rounds one and two, especially. like the easiest path to failure is to blow it with your with your early picks what's supposed to be the foundation of your team. So I'm always going to play it extra cautiously. And like, the Kukunia goes on to have five and a half months of Kauquina numbers and I don't, and I miss out on it. Okay. Well, I still got a really good player instead.

So I'm just not that, I'm not that upset about it. In a points league, however, I will still take Trout bets. Freddie Freeman, Boba Chet, Kyle Tucker, Raphael Debrer is ahead of him, but yeah, that probably takes you to like the mid-second round, so. Are you taking Bichette ahead of

Acuna and Roto? Oh yeah, yeah. I have Bichet as I think... He mentioned him in the points. I have him as like the sixth or seventh overall player in Roto leagues. Next up, we have Will Vaccine mandates derail anyone? This has been in the news recently as well. So New York City and Toronto,

they have mandates a little bit different for each one. Toronto, it's for visiting players. New York City, it's for a home and visiting players. That could affect, you know, players specifically on the Yankees and Mets. I mean, those are the ones that we're looking at right now. But Aaron Judge is a big name that is suspected to be one of those players. So, Scott, what do you think about this? Will the vaccine mandates affect someone's fantasy value here? And if it does anybody, are you looking to lower someone like Aaron Judge because of it. So this is the one that I am the most perplexed by.

I have no idea how this is going to play out. I said the other day on the podcast, I'd be inclined to wave it off with just a, they'll figure it out, except for the fact that they didn't it with Kyrie Irving. They held them to it. And he has been just playing road games this year for the Brooklyn Nets. And he is as much a star for them as Aaron Judges for the Yankees.

So it is indoor versus outdoor, but whatever. They've said this is the rule and we're not making exceptions for anybody. Now, could they lift the rule at some point? I mean, certainly if there was enough pressure politically for them to do that, they would. But I don't know, I don't know really what, I mean, you live there, so you'd understand better than I would what the political scene is like in New York. I don't know that there are those political pressures. ultimately

I think it'll be worked out maybe maybe just the players will relent and get vaccinated because you know it's not necessarily true they're all going to dig their heels in

like Kyrie Irving did you know he's pretty obstinate guy that Kyrie Irving but I don't know I don't know I have not been motivated to move any Aaron Judge or any other Yankees or Mets down yet. But if it gets to be final draft weekend before opening day,

and we still don't know any more about this situation, it's going to worry me for sure. So you have an important draft this weekend, Scott, and Aaron Judge is available in the middle of the third round where you would typically take him. He's your best player available. You're still taking him. In round three, yeah.

Yeah, right. As of now, I am. I mean, this might be the single biggest reason, though, why you'd want to delay your draft as long as possible, because, yeah, it could end up being a huge deal. And we don't know. We suspect Judge is not vaccinated. We know that other players on both the Yankees and Mets are not vaccinated,

but we don't know who they are. So it's kind of, you could be avoiding a guy for no good reason either. Yeah, I think James McCann was the name that was mentioned on the Mets. There was one other one. I don't remember who it was, and I definitely don't want to misspeak. So we, we shall see, I mean, this is an ever-evolving situation right now as well. Let's stick in New York and talk about Jacob de Grom. What's really going on with Jacob de Grom's elbow?

We know that over the past couple of seasons, DeGrom has been otherworldly. 91 starts from 2018 through 2021, a 1.94 ERA, 0.88 whip. 7774 strikeouts over 5801 innings pitched. The guy is a freak. However, last year he dealt with a UCL tear, and he says he's fine now. He's been named the opening day starter. He also said that he's going to opt out of his contract after the season.

What do you think, Scott? What's going on here? I think we need to see how he looks this spring, but so far everything we've heard sounds promising to me. Buck Show Walter has said he's on a normal schedule, He's already named him the opening day starter. Jacob de Grom said he treated the offseason normally, prepared normally. It's feeling great.

All the right things. All the right things. But because UCL damage was brought up last year, you know, it's going to take a couple months of him pitching, I think, before I can rest easy. And, you know, a couple months of his pitching is well past beyond. well beyond the point where you're thinking about drafting him. I'm a little more comfortable with the idea of using my second round pick on him just based on the chatter we're hearing right now. But ultimately what I said about Acuna still applies for DeGrom too

and that I just more than anything, I really don't want to mess up the pick. So I probably won't, but I can at least see myself doing it now when before I just couldn't at all. To me, there is no bigger risk reward candidate in the first two rounds than Jacob de Grom, Scott. I mean, if he throws 150 plus innings, he is viable to finish as the number one overall player in fantasy baseball. That's just how dominant he is. Or he can give you 30 innings and he's done for the season. It's just he is the definition of risk reward this season.

Have you been tempted at all, Scott, to move him up the rankings? Because I'd be lying if I said I haven't been tempted. You know, seeing him throwing and reading good reports and the fact that he's going to opt out after the season, he's clearly betting on himself. I have been tempted myself to move him up. Yeah. No, that's a good point.

I actually hadn't thought of that. Though, to be fair, he doesn't have to hold to that just because he says it now. He could change his mind. I would say, is your microwave going off or something in the background? That is the dryer. The dryer was running. I don't know why it has a fire alarm to let people know that it's done drying.

But, oh, it's still going. It's going to do that again. What did you ask me? You asked me if I'd move up DeGrom. Well, he's ahead of Wheeler now, but that has as much to do with Wheeler as it does DeGrom. But you're not moving him ahead of Woodrow for Walker Bueller. Not that group yet. No, no, I don't think I will no matter how Spring plays out.

I mean, there are reasons I might move those behind DeGrom if they have an injury situation or whatever. But I don't hold me to it. But I can't see myself moving to Grom higher than 6th. All right. Next up, this has been one of the most polarizing conversations all offseason. And one that we haven't really talked about much in the past couple of weeks. Can Christian Yellich and Cody Bellinger be fixed? What do you think?

I guess that's a no the dryer is speaking for you There's a much shorter one Yeah it has variable lengths of buzz I don't know what that's about But anyway I'm a little more open to this idea Now

and I'm not even really sure why It's just I don't know I've just I've considered The upside a little bit more And how good they could be I mean they were the MVP's of the NL in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Yelich in 2018, Bellinger in 2019.

And by the way, Yelich's 2019 was better than his 2018. So, I mean, they were as good as players get. And they both had health issues last year. And I understand they say, the brewers say, Yelich was completely healthy after return from the back issue for the final four and a half months of the season. He still slashed 238, 353, 373. in spite of them saying he was completely healthy

and that that does I don't like that I don't like hearing that but he still impacted the ball like an elite hitter he got his strikeout rate back down after it was bloated

during the short 2020 season his ground ball rate was way too high similar to his Marlins days but of course he wasn't as bad in his Marlins days as he was last year so

I think it's too soon to write him off and especially given the upside I think where they're drafted is the right point to take that risk but it could obviously backfire and I'm also to the point I do prefer Yel's to Bellinger now that must be a recent change for you

yeah it is okay it is I just I mean the fact that Yelch Eilich put up those kinds of numbers two years in a row, well, Bellinger only did it to one year. Plus, I think if either is going to be contributing a stolen basis, it's probably going to be Yelich. So it's just, if I'm making a play for upside,

I'm making a play for the more upside. And I think it's Yelich. All right. I prefer Bellinger myself because he is four years younger, maybe five years younger? It's either four or five years younger. He is younger. I can say that for certain.

And I just, I don't know if I should feel this way, but I feel worse about Yelich's lingering back injury than I do whatever Bellinger's got going on. So he had the shoulder surgery in the offseason last year and seems like he was never fully healthy. He didn't play in spring training at all. And then he dealt with more injuries as the season progressed. It was broken fibula and he had something going on with his ribs. So just Bellinger was completely banged up last. year. I think one year further removed from shoulder surgery can only help. And I don't know for certain that Yelich is over his back injury. You know, this is, I feel like this is something that could just flare up whenever, you know, so. Well, they say he is. They say he is. They say it's a non-issue. They say it's not like it's something they're looking to manage this year or anything like that. But yeah, I mean, it could be such that he just doesn't have the same strength in his back back as he used to. I think I was reading something.

I can't remember where I was reading it, but his stance was different last year. And it may have just been that he got into some bad habits because he was compensating for the back and that he needs to get out of those habits. But, I mean, these are two players right here that it's worth monitoring what they do in spring training as opposed to what we said at the top of the show.

These are the kind of players that do fit. into that category. Yeah, for certain. Yeah. Like, we don't really care about production for veterans this time of year, but you mentioned Max Muncie, someone you're following closely. You want to see how they play Bellinger, Yelich, no doubt, definitely in that category. Next up, will we see even more of the dead and balls? So this was a storyline heading into last year that, honestly, I don't think that we put

enough stock into it, Scott. At the same time, we didn't really know the level that it was going to affect things, like how much it was really going to. who changed the landscape in baseball. And it definitely did early on. Offense got better as the season went along. But overall, what do you think here? Will we see more of the dead and ball?

I mean, we did talk about it a lot last year, but yeah, I mean, it was entirely speculative the impact that it would have. In part because it seemed like there were these competing tensions between the size of the ball and how tightly wound it was. And one would help with power and one would hurt power. So it was a confusing situation.

April was dreadful. And April's usually one of the worst months for offense is just because colder months tend to be. But it looked like the game was broken last April. Like it was a disaster. The problem is that we don't know how consistently the ball was applied, the new ball was applied last year. And this is something that only came out after the season ended, that apparently because of the pandemic and supply chains, all of that, there were some production delays with the new balls, so they had to mix in old balls.

But it wasn't clear how much or when or where they were mixing in these old balls. It's not something that really, it just further muddles the situation, basically. to the point where I wonder how much of what happened last April was there was a higher percentage of the new balls being used last April because they didn't know

there were going to be these production delays. They didn't have to start mixing in the old ones yet, you know? So we could see even more drastic changes to the pitcher-hitter balance in 2022 than we saw in 2021. And that's part of the reason that reason why I'm kind of drilling home this exit velocity point for hitters

and being a little wary of the middling exit velocity guys, even the ones who didn't see a noticeable drop in home runs last year, especially those, but even the ones who didn't, because it could get worse. It could get worse. And the ones I can really trust to hit for power, the ones who legitimately hit the ball hard. All right.

Yeah, I mean, that's why we reference stack as numbers as much as we do. I mean, it's such a prevalent thing in the game right now. So you really want hitters that are crushing the ball. And, you know, for the most part, the ones that we target early on are the ones that are doing exactly that. Next up, we have is service time manipulation a thing of the past? So the players fought for this in the CBA. And here's the official rule. Teams that promote a player to the opening day roster and keep him up for a full season

will be eligible to receive up to three draft picks if the player finishes in the top three in rookie of the year voting or top five in MVP or Cy Young voting before he is eligible for arbitration. Scott, does that actually matter? So only the ones who are eligible for this are the ones who are on the roster on opening day?

Yes. My hunch is it won't be enough to overcome the either getting an extra year of team control or delaying arbitration another year there are two cutoffs basically during the season one is for one and the earlier one is to get an extra year of control

and the later one is about delaying the start of arbitration so you know that that itself is such a carrot for GMs that I'm not sure the draft pick incentive is going to be enough to change the math on that. But look, they also want to win.

In fact, there was Alex Avila, or Alavila, the Tigers GM, was, he said on Thursday that he's not so arrogant to think the Tigers won't need Spencer Torkelson and Riley Green on their opening day roster if they're trying to reach the playoffs. Like those games matter too. And so there's not going to be any manipulative.

I mean, of course, nobody's going to outright admit to manipulating it, but the way he put it was, you know, we want to try and win those games early on. So, I mean, that is part of the thinking, too. And maybe it's enough incentive combined with the incentive of actually winning more games that we will see it curtailed some. But I'm, I don't think it's going to be this huge landscape change where all of the borderline call-ups are there on opening day, like Bobby Witt and Spencer Torkelson and Riley Green and Adley Rushman

and whoever else you want to put in there. But we may see a little bit more. I think, you know, the fact that it's several years of chances to get an extra draft pick for doing this, I think that that might be worth something. And you know what, Scott, I think the smart franchises in, baseball, they might try to take advantage of this because if it gives them even a certain percentage

chance of earning that many more draft picks, I mean, why wouldn't they do it? Of course, it depends on the prospect, right? Like, they're not going to put a prospect up on opening day that probably doesn't have a realistic chance of winning rookie of the year or finishing top five in any of this type of voting. But yeah, I mean, someone like Torkelson can make a massive impact and Bobby Witt. So I think some of the smarter organizations could take advantage of this. I'll leave that up to you guys to figure out which organizations are smart and which aren't, but, you know, talking about the Rockies recently, they're probably not one of those. Before we hit the break, I want to promote a few things. If you are watching us live or on demand here on YouTube, make sure to hit that

thumbs up button and give us a like. If you're listening to the, on the podcast feed, please feel free to subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. We typically go live every Sunday through Thursday evening, around 10. 11 p.m. Eastern time to do the full-length podcast, but we also mix in live emergency podcasts whenever we get big signings or injuries, and we do mock drafts that you can watch live here and you can see the draft board and, you know, follow along with things that are actually happening that way. So again, subscribe if you haven't already. Make sure to hit the notification bell. That way, you know whenever we go live or when we drop a new video. And speaking of which, we do have a

mailbag podcast that will be out this Saturday. And if you're featured, you know, features a story about Scott being chased by a creepy clown. So make sure to check it out. That is not a joke. The story was told. It was told once, I believe, five years ago. And it has been retold. That's why I didn't force Scott.

I kind of forced Scott to tell it because I never heard it. I was like, you know, I want to get in. But anyway, it's really fun. So make sure to check it out this weekend. I mean, I'm scarred emotionally for the rest of my life. But it's fine. I can relive it every five years. Let's take a quick break when we return.

We'll hit those news and notes here on fantasy baseball today. All right, so let's get to some news and notes. Jack Flaherty is getting a second opinion on his shoulder, which, Scott, that just never sounds good. No, it doesn't. Flaherty himself is still sounding like he's going to be ready for opening day, but there's a lot of reason for doubt there. And I've moved him.

He's still inside my top 40. I think I have him a little higher than both you and Chris. I have him and him and Clayton, Kershaw kind of linked right now as potential ace caliber pitchers who I'm just not sure what they're going to give me this year and the point I so where does that put them in my ranking so it's like behind the the exciting sophomore class of Trevor Rogers and Alec Mnanoa and Shane McClanahan it's behind it's like right behind them basically in my starting pitcher rankings obviously if we once we get clarity on a shoulder issue if it if it turns out I need

lower him more, I will. All right, yeah, you have Jack Flaherty 36th in your rankings. I have him 41st, and Chris has him down at 49. It's probably worth just quickly mentioning the ranking on Chris Sale too, because he's dealing with a rib injury. You have him 52nd. I've got him up at 35. Chris has him up at 34, so. Wow. Yeah, I mean, that's... The thing is, we haven't heard a timetable yet on Chris Sale, right? Well, and the way he put it was, I... I don't know. Yeah, he said it's going to be weeks before he throws again. Chris Sale said, I don't know what the timetable is,

but normally a broken bone is, I know, is six to eight weeks. This is, you know, a stress fracture in the rib cage, right? So not a full broken bone, but a really troublesome area for a pitcher. I think it's probably a couple months before he even throws again. I'm not counting on Chris Sale for even half, for more than half the season anyway. So yeah, I have him. I moved him way down.

All right. I might have to follow suit there. Maybe move him around someone like Clevenger who has, who's coming back from Tommy John surgery and obviously he has a bunch of risk himself. We had a few small signings on Thursday. Jonathan V.R.

signed with the Cubs, which actually seems like it would bode well for his playing time. Last year he hit 249, 18 homers, 14 steals. The ADP is 322.6. He has third base and shortstop. eligibility. Scott, do you have any interest in Jonathan VR in deep category leagues?

Yeah, deep roto 15 teamers pick them up for little steals help late. I don't know what is rolls going to look like. Obviously, the Cubs don't have a lot of fixtures in their lineup, so it might depend somewhat on how good Patrick Wisdom is, how good Raphael Ortega is. You know, they just picked up Simmons, which bumped Nico Horner out of the lineup. So now they got a couple guys that they're trying to find a bat's for between him and VR, Horner and VR. I don't know how much opportunity VR will really have, but being as versatile as he is, it should open the door for enough playing time for deeper rotissory leagues. Some good news for you, Scotty.

Ranger Suarez expects to be ready for the start of the season despite visa issues delaying his arrival at camp. Are we back in, Scotty, full bore? Yeah, actually, I moved Ranger Suarez back to where I had him. he thinks he's going to not have to miss any time at the start of the season. I suspect if he doesn't, he'll have a couple short starts to begin the season, but I can live with that. All right, Scott has Ranger Suarez, 35th in his starting pitcher ranks just ahead of Jack Flaherty.

Some more good news for both of us, Scott. I'm already very invested in Charlie Morton, who threw about 40 pitches over three innings in a simulated game on Wednesday and showed no limitations. They were raving about the stuff. Apparently, he was facing all their best head. and he looked really good. So yes, good news on Charlie Morton.

However, I do worry about this potentially driving up his price in drafts now. So I think people wanted to see that Charlie Morton was healthy and so far so good. Yeah, I think so too. I think so too. I think the days of us getting him in round eight or whatever are over.

Don't say that. Don't say it. Hope I'm wrong because I, fortunately I banked him away in a number of leagues already. Same. Same, and I'm happy about it. Yoham Okada, cue the alarm. Sound the alarm.

Best shape of his life said he wants to steal 30 bases this season, Scott. What do you think? Over under 30 steals for Yoan Mukata. I will take. I will take the under. I will take the under. I mean, he's fast enough. I'm not going to completely rule out the possibility,

but I think back to this time a year ago and Brendan Rogers of the Rockies, my guy Brendan Rogers, said he was aiming to steal 20 bases. You know how many bases Brendan Rogers stole last year? Zero. Zero. From 20 being the goal to zero being reality.

Yohan Moncada had three last year. So I've said before, stolen bases are more than anything, a matter of intent. And he is expressing an intent. So I'm not going to completely rule it out. I don't think you should draft him counting on that. Yes. And obviously, I'm being facetious when I mentioned 30,

but can he get... No, that's what he said. Yeah, no, I know he did. I mean, look, nobody should expect that. But if he gave 10 to 15, that wouldn't surprise me at all. 67th percentile sprint speed. He's still 26 years old. He's athletic enough to get it done.

He gets on base a decent amount. So, uh, you want to kind of? Maybe a few more steals this season. The Cubs signed Michael Givens, and all of a sudden, they keep racking up these relievers, kind of like these middling relievers. They've got Michael Gibbons, Chris Martin,

David Robertson, and all along they still have Rowan Wick. So what are you thinking with the closer situation here? Oh, gosh. This may have, I mean, there's the Orioles, obviously, but this may be right up there with them in terms of messiest bullpen situation. Because, yeah, a bunch of guys who have been on the cusp of closing in the recent past, but have never really been true closers. I guess Michael Givens is the closest, but, you know, his numbers weren't that great last year.

So I have no idea what direction they're going to go with it. I don't think they know which direction they're going to go with it right now. I suppose WIC would still be my first choice until I hear that they're leaning some other direction, just because WIC finished last year and sort of in the role. But yeah, it's a mess. Danny Duffy is in agreement on a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers pending physical. a club option for 2023 and according to

John Heyman, Duffy should be back sometime around midseason as he recovers from flexor tendon surgery. He was very good last year so a name to watch later on this season. The giant signed Matthew Boyd to a one year $5.2 million deal even though he won't return from a flexor tendon

from flexor tendon surgery until June himself. They have some depth, you know, some solid depth here. Logan Webb, Carl Sordaun, Anthony Deiskelfeb. Alex Wood, Alex Cobb, Matthew Boyd when he returns, Jacob Junis, they sign. Carlos Martinez is there now on a, I believe it's a minor league contract, non-rosster

invite, but yeah, they've got some depth. Ryan Saperra signed a two-year, $14 million deal with the Angels. Some people thought he could wind up somewhere where he could close. He's got the stuff, but that will not be the case this season. Domingo Hermann was placed on the 60-day IL, so will not be involved early on with the Yankees. Some prospect news, we mentioned Spencer Torkelson and Ron. Riley Green. Apparently, Alec Thomas is in the mix for the Diamondbacks starting center field job. Scott, this one's a little bit tougher because the Diamondbacks are not really expected to compete.

Do they want them up on opening day? I'm not entirely sure, but he offers an intriguing skill set. Yes, he does. Yes, he does. Yeah, I don't know that I have much more to add than that. We'll have to see how it goes. All right. Spring training games are underway. As I mentioned, there was only four games on Thursday. Bobby Dalbeck hit the first home run of all spring training. And after the game, Alex Kora said he wants Dolbeck to be an all-purpose type player and referenced that he could play left field and second base in addition to some first base. I think they're leaving these options open because they have a prospect coming in Tristan Kossis, who they are very excited about as well. But Bobby Dalbeck hit a bunch of home runs final two months last year and really turned it on. So if he

performs that well again, they're going to want to get his bat in the lineup. So keep him in mind later on in drafts if you need power. Kyle Hendricks, Scottie, one of your guys, two innings of one-run ball with two strikeouts. He looked pretty good when I was watching the game. Andrew Vaughn, a top prospect, former, I don't know, is he former top prospect, I guess at this point,

hit a home run off of a lefty. He crushed lefties last season as well. I wanted to mention, I was on the Fantasy Pros podcast the other day with Joe Pisapia and our buddy of the Welsh, Chris Welsh and he was at White Sox camp and he posted a video of Andrew Vaughn playing second base taking grounders at second base. So I thought that was pretty interesting, Scott. I mean, he played I think right field today, maybe some second base. They're trying to find ways to get Andrew Vaughn's bat in the lineup, basically. Yeah. And second base has kind of been that goofball

position where you just as long as as the guy throws right handed, teams have shown a willingness, particularly in recent years with ground balls being less a major part of the game. Teams have shown a willingness to play guys who aren't natural second baseman there. So there could be something to that. That would be exciting if it happened. It still seems like a long shot to me at this point. All right. The last piece that I wanted to mention here,

this actually didn't happen in a spring game, but it happened on Wednesday. And I've got him in the Scott White Dynasty League. so, of course, I'm rooting for him. Dominic Smith, apparently Homer twice off of Max Scherzer in a SIM games. So we're rooting for you, Dom. Let's get it done. Let's get to a few more burning questions here, see how many of these we can get.

How many closers will we actually know of heading into the season? What say you, Scotty? So, as of now, let me find the count again. I think it's 12 that, well, no, let's make it 11, because the Cardinals have kind of flaked on Giovanni Gallegos. So we got Josh Hader, Liam Hendrix, Riesel Iglesias, Emmanuel Class A, Edwin Diaz, Ryan Presley, Jordan Romano, Oroldus Chapman, Will Smith,

Corey Kenebel, and Mark Malanson are all, if the closer term hasn't been applied to them, the usage was so obvious last year that we just know they're the closer. of those Romano and Konebel have a pretty tenuous grasp on the role. Kenley Jansen's still out there. He could end up overtaking one of those 11 names that I just named when he gets signed. There are other closers. Well, basically beyond those 11, we're kind of just guessing.

There are many teams that we can make a more educated guess about than others. Giovanni Gallegos for the Cardinals, for instance. think Camilla Deval of the Giants, Scott Barlow of the Royals. That's just a few of those names. But it is a guess to some degree. And the thing is, I don't know that it's going to get much better. It's going to be much better than a guess for the majority of those 19 teams that we don't know for sure. Because it's just, like I said, when the Cardinals manager was talking about Gallegos and he, he,

He said, you know, you can lose the game in the seventh inning or eighth inning, so they want to keep him versatile. That is just kind of the default manager line these days. It's more common for a manager to say that than to anoint a pitcher officially as his closer. So I think for the majority of teams, we're just going to have to use our best hunch on draft day and then find out within the first few weeks of the season what the manager actually plans on doing. And of course, some pitchers during those first few weeks are going to fall out of favor. And new names who weren't on our radar are going to emerge. And as the season plays out, we'll have more than 11 teams that we feel confident in who's going to get the next save. But it'll never be all 30.

It'll never be all 30 simultaneously that we know this guy is the closer. We would be so lucky, Scott. if that were the case. But hey, that's like more than half the job, right? Trying to figure out who is closing on what days. It's been a mess the past couple of years. I wanted to mention there was a report yesterday from the Dodgers that Dave Roberts said

the ninth inning could be fluid with Blake Trininin representing the highest leverage role in the bullpen. So that's another one where if Kenley Jansen doesn't go back there, you know, looking a little bit dicing now. I did not mention Trinan among those 11 names. Yeah. So he is, though he is the obvious front runner if,

if Jansen doesn't return. I think there's a good chance Jansen does return, honestly, especially the longer this goes. All right. Is Mike Trout's calf better? He strained his calf in mid-May last season and was expected to miss six to eight weeks. He did not return.

You know, he started having some setbacks, and then by the time we got to August, the angels were basically out of it. So I think that played a huge role into it, but apparently Trout said it's been a non-issue since October. Scott, we know that the skill set is still there, especially if you're playing a points league. He's going to walk a ton. He's going to hit home runs.

Probably not going to run as much, not going to provide as many steals as he used to. But still a productive player if he's on the field. What do you think? Will he be on the field? Yeah, I think so. He said his offseason was normal. The calf was healed up in October and he had a normal offseason otherwise. So my stance all along is I don't know why we're still worrying about this calf.

And I think so far those concerns have only, that stance has only been validated. All right. So you're fine taking him, you know, first round pick regardless of the format, right? Yes, I think I have him, I think I have him ninth in Roto and seventh in points. Okay, I'm going to pull that up quickly

Just to confirm for the listeners out there You have Trout eighth overall in Roto And you have him Eighth No, seventh in Points Leagues So, yeah And I have Trout I actually have Trout sixth in Points Leagues

So I'm on board Points Leagues mid first round pick Totally fine with that Roto categories I drop him down ever so slightly He's like right around the turn Pick 1213 somewhere there Will Trevor Bauer be allowed to contribute this season?

So 2021 ended in June because of a sexual assault allegation. And just last month, he was cleared of criminal charges. But then we, you know, had some drama again on Thursday as Trevor Bauer had his administrative leave extended through April 16th. So push back one week further. We're talking about, you know, nine days into the season at that point. There was another report that David Robert. Roberts said he, quote, plans to not have Trevor Bauer for the foreseeable future, if ever again. Apparently, that came on the Rich Eisen Show. And then it turns out it wasn't real. Never happened.

So take that report. Don't believe it. But Scott, what we do have is administrative leave through April 16th for Trevor Bauer. Yep. Yep. So he's not going to be around for the full season. We know that much now, if nothing else. And look, there's still a chance he never again. throws a pitch for the Dodgers. There's still a chance he never throws a never again throws a pitch in the majors, though I think he probably will. But obviously we're talking about

just the context of this year and a lot of unknowns. And the unfortunate part is if you do draft him and stash him in the hopes that he does does get to pitch at some point this year, it can't be in an aisle spot. So he's just using up a bench butt.

I think the uncertainty is too great. And the fact that you can't stash him, you don't know how long you're going to, you have no idea how long you'd be stashing him. When do you pull the plug? What is it going to take you for, if you've already invested and the longer you're invested, the more you want to stick with it,

when do you pull the plug? I'm not that motivated to do it. I think I would go with that forgotten ace trio of Carlos Carrasco, Zach Granky, and Kyle Hendricks before I took Bauer myself. All right, and the ADP reflects that, you know, some people are still optimistic about Trevor Bauer, which I understand because if he pitches,

he can provide top 15, top 10 starting pitcher production, but there is just so much uncertainty right now. The ADP is 184.4. He's going just ahead of Heungen-Riu, Terik Scoubel, Noah Cindergarde, Anthony Desclofani, John Means, Patrick Sandoval, someone we all really like, Aaron Savale, Joe Ryan,

Alex Wood, all those pitchers you mentioned, Scott, the forgotten Ace trio. So, you know, I think that has to start to come back down a little bit, that ADP on Trevor Bauer. Yeah, yeah, I think now that it's been extended into mid-April, it will. But we'll see, maybe not.

The rewards are huge. I mean, the rewards are, from the time he begins pitching. It could be a top-10 pitcher. All right, let's get to two more. two that I have here. I'm interested to hear what you have to say about them. Are we sure that we've heard the last of sticky substances? So it seems like it affected spin rates immediately in June and July last year, but by the time we got to August, September, we started to see spin rates return.

What do you think, Scott? I mean, honestly, I haven't studied this situation much. Like, I don't understand why it wasn't more involved in the CBA or why they didn't say that they're going to use pre-tapped baseballs because they're doing it in other locations. and a lot of the players seem to like it. So it seems weird that they don't. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know that they aren't on the sly because the spin rates return.

Now, they didn't return all the way. September spin rates weren't as good as May spin rates. But they did return partly. And we saw a lot of pitchers struggle right away at the end of June. or beginning of July and then they kind of, their performance kind of leveled out. Corbin, Corbyn Burns himself, Garrett Cole, like most pitchers, frankly, followed this pattern of big dip in RPM right away and then gradually it built back up to close to what it was. So I can't help but wonder if they figured out another less.

detectable substance, less effective, but less detectable substance to use to get around it. And if that's the case, will there be another crackdown coming at some point? I don't know. All right, let's wrap up with this one, Scott. And I think it's a perfect way to end because it's a player that you're excited about this season. How much does Justin Verlander have left? He finished as the number one overall player, not pitcher, number one overall player in fantasy baseball back in 2019 and is now attempting to become the 10th known pitcher to come back from Tommy John's surgery at the age of 37 or older. He signed a one year, $25 million deal with the Houston Astros, which includes a $25 million player option that is triggered if Verlander can throw

130 plus innings. I wanted to include this guy. I don't know if you saw it. I was reading Mining the News from Jeff Zimmerman. It's great. I encourage everyone to go check it out. the other day apparently Verlander said that he's quote a hair behind and likely won't be fully built up by opening day he's should be good to go he'll pitch but maybe not fully built up to what we're used to so keep that of mind yeah i mean that's probably true of most pitchers yeah but fair enough yeah i mean he's he's 39 now and and that last full season he was 36 so you know 36 is pretty old itself and we still saw him sustaining mid-90s heat over 220-plus innings.

How much of a difference is 39 going to make after Tommy John's surgery? I suspect not much, but we'll see how he looks this spring. More importantly, how the stuff looks as opposed to what the performance is. And, yeah, I mean, those numbers he put up in 2019,

21 wins, 300 strikeouts. It's like a pitcher from another time. maybe if de Grom stays healthy for a whole season, he could do something like that. But there really isn't another pitcher who can. Maybe Scherzer, but, you know, clearly, clearly a very, very select group of pitchers even capable with anything close to that.

And I don't think he's going to throw the 220 or so innings he did that year coming off Tommy John surgery, but I don't think they're going to protect the arm because he's 39 years old. I think they'll let him go, and I think that's what he would want. And if that's the case, you know, the track record of this procedure being what it is, I feel like he could be a very rewarding pick at his ADP.

I think he could end up being the top pitcher on your team, no matter who the actual one is you selected first. And what is that ADP, you ask? 105.8 for Justin Verlander. I wanted to quickly pull up the projections on fan graphs. they have him in a range of 136 to 185. That's a big range. That's a very big range.

But man, if he gets to 185, I mean, he's, you're probably talking about a top 10 pitch in fantasy baseball. Yeah, I would back closer to the 185. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if he exceeded 185. It really won it. I did want to ask you got last question here. Kind of tie the last two together. Justin Verlander has not pitched since the sticky substance crackdown.

Do you worry about any type of adjustment period here early on in the season because of that? Yeah. I mean, worry is a little too strong, but there could be. It's something to remind yourself if there are some issues early on that, particularly with RPM specifically

with the spin rate, that this might just be something he has to work through the way every pitcher in the league, had to work through it last summer. All right. Yeah, look, I'm sure he has, you know, very close friends in high places. So he's, he's probably talked to other pitchers and, you know, picked, pick their brains a little bit, see what they did last year and how they got back on track ultimately.

But Justin Verlander, someone to watch closely, especially if there's any ballparks in spring where you can track the stat cast data and the spin rates, that is what we need to pay close attention to. So we'll be all over that for you. and we're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow on Saturday with a Mailbag edition.

Bye-bye.