Fantasy Baseball Today - Busts 2.0! Jacob deGrom & Other Players to Avoid (3/8 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 8, 2023

Scott just finished his Tout Wars draft! What's his initial reaction (1:00)? ... Can Jazz Chisholm stay healthy (4:40)? ... What should we expect from Ozzie Albies (12:12)? ... Is Jake McCarthy assured playing time if he struggles (19:52)? ... News (24:27): we still don't have any updates on Andrew Painter. ... Is there any excitement for Matthew Boyd, Yusei Kikuchi, Shintaro Fujinami and Tanner Houck following strong spring performances (29:23)? ... Fade Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert (34:26)? ... Jacob deGrom and Freddy Peralta represent big injury risks (39:22). ... So do Byron Buxton and Tony Gonsolin (46:00). ... We wrap up with the rest of our Busts 2.0 (51:28). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Make sure to join our Fantasy Baseball Today March Madness bracket challenge here: https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2hazdeobwhayq====?pool-join-key=luc355rrnbhkblo9afv0ti95ozzbzg66&invited-by=ivxhi4tzhiytenztgq2dsojz&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF23_lk_cbssports_cbb_bpm_copySetupInvite Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Which players are we avoiding in drafts this season? Let's find out. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, March 8th.

Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we've got Bust. 2.0 news and spring training updates. But for now, let's talk about the man of the hour. We're going to be bringing down Scott's Tout Wars team in-depth tomorrow. But it just wrapped up. Draft is over, Scott. What is the rapid reaction?

Just the rapid feel right after the draft ends. It's surprisingly even keel, I guess. Usually, I don't know how many years I've done Tout Wars now. This is like my sixth maybe. and usually I've either been like, you know, totally over the moon about my team or, you know, like, devastated about missed opportunities that happened during the draft. And I was actually afraid it would be the latter because I was picking 15th. And you know how I hate picking on the ends because I like to anticipate what's going to be there.

By the time, my next pick comes up and there's just no doing that. I think once during the end draft did somebody I hoped would get back to me, actually make it back. So I kind of just had to take what came to me and my first five picks look very unfamiliar based on other drafts I've done. But having said that, like I think I did, I think I did a reasonable job of just taking what came to me. Got some good values because of it. You know, I balanced home runs and stolen base as well, which is always critical in a roto league. Pitching looks deeper than it usually does for me in a 15 team league. So yeah, I feel pretty good about it. I feel pretty good about it too, Scott.

I like what you did there. And it feels like we're the official Fernando Tatees podcast because Chris has done a Taut war's draft, wound up with Tatees. Scott has done a Taut war's draft, wound up with Tate's. My draft is on March 19th. We're going to have to wait until then to find out if I also wind up with Fernando Tatees. You got to get them. You got to keep the street going.

Yeah, we are the official podcast. Chris, are you hyped for the World Baseball Classic? I know we've got an aim on right now. I'm watching some hunk ball. right now. What? Absolutely. That's what baseball is called in Dutch.

The major league in the Netherlands is hunk ball hoofed class. And that is just delightful. I love it. That is awesome. I love the World Baseball Classic because I'm just watching like, Yon Es Cesspitt is batting right now. And like it's just a great like remember some guys, especially on the kind of worst teams.

You know, those the guys that like, you didn't realize there's still like, Jyre Juergens is going to be pitching for the Netherlands at some point. Like, you know, they've got the other pro far brother on their team. I actually wrote about the World Baseball Classic and just players to watch on CBSSports.com.

Japan, man. That is going to be a very fun team. They probably, they might have the three best players in the world, not currently in Major League Baseball. I don't know if you like, if you include. prospects if that's true. But like, man, the three dudes, Munitaka, Murakami, Yoshinobu Yamamoto,

and Roki Sasaki are just outrageously good. And I'm really excited to watch those three. Go check out Chris's article on the site, CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball, world baseball classic players to watch. I believe Japan, Dominican Republic, and USA are basically three way favorites to win the WBC. So obviously all three of those teams are stacked. And I did go and play some bets on Puerto Rico to win it all. So let's go, Chris. Let's get it done. Let's get into bus 2.0. But first, remind people of the buss we gave out back on January 31st. We did our first iteration of Sleepers Breakouts and Bus. Michael Harris, Adoli Scarcia, and George Kirby for Scott. Bobby Witt Jr., Tyler Glassnow and MJ Melendez for Chris. And then Michael Harris, Dylan,

and Zach Gellon from me. Scott, let's start with your top two busts here. Two hitters. Jazz Chisholm, the people are not going to like it, Scott. And Starling Marte, what do you got on those two? Yeah, I mean, the best case for jazz chisholm is, you probably don't even really need me to make it. It's that, you know, he's been around for three seasons now.

If you count the short in 2020 season, when did he come up during that year? Do you remember? only 21 games. It was a short season. It was 2020. Right. Right.

I think it was a 60 game season. He played only 21 games. Did he get hurt or did he come up? I don't remember. I'll look that up, but I feel like it was an injury. In any case, there were major injuries the past two years that limited 60 games and 124 games respectively. So that's significant loss time. And we haven't seen Jazz Chisham, whether you want to say it's three chances or two, play anywhere close to a full year yet.

And that's, you know, not a deal breaker necessarily, but because he is one of only four second baseman who's perceived to be high end, he often gets pulled into the fourth or sometimes even the third round. I believe his ADP is in the fifth round, which is still pretty high. It's still going ahead of some real stalwarts and fantasy. And so it's just there will be a year where Jad's Chisholm doesn't get hurt. maybe he'll have a stretch of a few years where he gets hurt. But I'm not ready to assume he's going to stay healthy, given that he's, you know, given the nature of the injuries and the frequency of the injuries

and the cost comes with, I think, more downside than the upside can justify. I would rather have Ozzy Albis straight up and he's going ahead of Ozzie Albis on average. But if he didn't have the injury concerns, given the way he played last season, he'd probably be being drafted even higher than that. So I don't think it's like he's not being drafted at his ceiling. He was at least using the Razball player raider last year. He was the second best player on a per game basis. Yeah. If you do minimum 200 played appearances because obviously he only had 241.

He doesn't go that far behind Jose Altuve, who was the number one. Sure. So he kind of is being drafted at a ceiling. I think the best case scenario for Jazz Chisholm is probably better than the best case scenario for Jose L. Tuve. I think if... Big statement there. It obviously depends on health. So I understand what you're saying here.

Scott, limited to 60 games last year was Jazz Chisholm with a stress fracture in his back torn meniscus in his knee. Now he's being moved to the outfield, center field in particular, where he's going to likely have to do more running. So I don't know that that helps. him stay healthy, but I don't think he's being drafted at his ceiling because his ceiling to me is 30-30 and if he's coming off a season where he did that, he's probably a borderline first-round pick.

I mean, maybe the 99th percentile outcome is 30-30. He was on pace for it last year. Yeah, like that's... Right. Even just his 160 games... His 162 game pace for the last two seasons combined is 28-301.

Do you think he's going to play 162 games this year? No. I think he's less likely than most players. No, I mean, you guys are making the upside case, which I think speaks for itself, given how high he goes. And like I said, maybe there will be a year where jazz chishism, there will probably be a year where jazz chism stays healthy. And maybe it'll be even more than one year. And maybe it'll be like a Nelson Cruz situation where he starts out injury prone and then suddenly stops being injury prone. But what I'm trying to do with my bust picks is to point out

the landmines. If you step here, there's a chance your season blows up. And I think at Jazz Chisholm's cost, that's a potential landmine. And to your point, Scott, the ADP on fantasy pros is 47.4 for Jazz Chisholm. Last two weeks at NFBC, 35.9. And I've seen that in a lot of drafts where even in a 12-team league, he could work his way into the back end of the third round, which I can't really get on board with that. I mean, I like him in the fourth because you can get him as your third hitter and you could also work one pitcher into your roster as well. So you're not

really depending on him, but if you draft him as like your second hitter, it's a little bit more risky. And if by some chance he makes it to round five, I might even consider taking him at that point. You know, sort of like there are occasions where I've taken Michael Harris, who you pointed out was in my busts 1.0, Frank.

Yeah. But it's, you know, someone is always eager to take him, and it's not me. Stalling Marte is the other bus that you have here, Scott, and he's coming off a dual groin surgery. This offseason has yet to make his spring training debut. The only thing with Marte, Scott, is he is sliding down draft boards right now. I got him at the end of the seventh round in a 15-team league in TGFBI, so I don't know how much you factor that into the bus case for him,

but it seems like a lot of people are scared off right now, maybe rightfully so. Again, the way I approach my bust is this is not. a do not a do not draft list. It's a proceed with extreme caution list. So there may be an occasion where I take Starling Marte, who's, you know, per game production was still pretty good, but he is 34. He is a consistent injury risk.

The last time he played even 140 games was 2018. So, you know, at his age, he's not going to start getting healthier. He's already hurt right now. But, you know, the real nail in the coffin for Starling Marte for me is I'm not even confident if he is healthy. He's going to give me the kind of numbers I'm expecting from him because being someone who's now in his mid-30s, his percentile rank for sprint speed dropped below 70th percentile last year. It had consistently been 80 or higher, 90-year higher for most of his career, and it was below 70th percentile. His success rate on steals, not so great.

stole only 18 bases in his 118 games was caught nine times. So it was successful on two-thirds of the time. It's going to get easier to run this year. Maybe the decline in sprint speed was a fluke. But considering the stolen base numbers course, the drop in stolen bases corresponds to decline in sprint speed and he's in an age where it totally makes sense that he'd slowed down. I'm not sure, again, I'm not sure the risk is worth a reward. Even in the scenario you laid out, you're talking about a 15-team league. Seventh-round pick sounds like a great deal for Starling Marte, but seventh-round pick is still the core of your team in a league that deep.

And if Starling-Marté gives you half a season of unstarling-marte-like production, it's going to be hard to overcome. So I see that as a potential landmine, regardless of the format, or even really where he's going. I mean, I guess in a shallower league, like, he's going outside round 10 in a shallower league, there's no risk in that, but most of the time, that isn't what happens. The ADP for Starling Marte, according to Fantasy Pros, is 71. Last two weeks at the NFBC is 89.1.

So people are scared of Starling Marte right now. And maybe for good reason. I'd like to see him play in a spring training game that hasn't happened yet. But as of now, Staling Marte, sliding down draft boards. Chris, your bus here. You've got two Braves. Scott, you know. Yeah, Scott picked him Arlen, so I'm going to double up.

on Braves just to get back at him. The revenge. Not this guy though, right? This is not old the Coonia. Oh, no. Well, that's, I hope. That's what I wrote in my bus column is like, look, I've got nothing against the Atlanta Braves.

I mean, you know, they are probably the Marlins biggest rival historically, although that's, you know, it's like, you know, an aunt has no quarrel with a boot kind of thing. But yeah, either way, you know, I've got nothing against the Atlanta Braves. I just don't like. these two guys enough to justify their costs in fantasy. And the biggest thing for me is with Albies in particular, it's really hard to know in our current baseball environment where there was the juiced ball era and there was a shortened season.

And then last year we had the weird April where nobody could hit. And then it was okay after that. It's really hard to know what a player's true talent level is. But I worry that Ozzie Albi's true talent level was really inflated by. the juiced ball era. He looked like a really, really good hitter during the juiced ball era. Never a great source of batting average, but good pop. Great counting stats at the top of a really good lineup. Now I'm not so sure because if the ball is not going to be flying as far as it did at his best, what we saw last season was always looked more like an 18 homer guy. And if he's not

going to make changes to his game to maximize batting average, a 250 hitter with 18 homers, you're going to have to steal a lot of bases to be worth a third or fourth or fifth round pick. He's aiming for 40. Yeah, I mean, he's he's talking about 40. He's talking about 40, 40. Okay. That would be, that would be something. I mean, you can, you can do that with stolen bases.

Yes. I'm not so sure about the home run. And I like that he's saying that at a time in baseball history where really every hitter should be saying that because it's going to be easier to run than any of us can remember. He's been mostly an okay source of steals, not necessarily a great one throughout his career. Only three last season.

I think we can give him the benefit of that on that one. 20 is his career high at 15 and 14. 158 and 160 games in 2018 and 2019. So like, let's say he's an 18 homer 22 steel guy who hits 255. I mean, that's a pretty good player, but it's certainly not a special one.

And I just worry with the quality of contact metrics that he sports, 87.1 mile per hour average exit velocity, 5.4% barrel rate last season, expected Wobah 297. I just, I think there's a decent chance that Ozzy Albies is just like an average hitter in an environment or at a price where you need a lot more than average to justify his price. I think he's probably a like relatively high floor player. He's going to play every day. There's no risk of playing time.

The injuries last season probably won't linger. But I just, I worry he's not that special of a player. You laid out a case for like a pessimistic case of being a 20-20-second basement. Mm-hmm. I mean, it's ADP's round five. The line you laid out, 255 Batagab has basically 20-10 steals. Like, isn't that basically Marcus Simeon, who goes earlier than Housie Albi? Marcus Simeon, he went 25-25 last year.

And now it's not like you can pencil them in for those numbers every year. I mean, I'm far off. This is the thing. This is the thing is you can kind of do that either way. And obviously there's a chance that Ozzy Albee's dramatically outperforms that. Because we've seen him be a 30 homer guy before. Right.

But I'm pretty sure he's not a 30 homer guy. Yeah, pretty sure. In this environment. Like the. Yeah. But, okay. I mean, I get what you're saying. And I've had those reservations.

with Ozzy Albis too because I mean for the period he was healthy last season he seemed like somebody who got crushed by the switch in baseballs but it was also the time of year where everybody was getting crushed so we haven't really seen it play out

for Ozzy Albies yet and although he was actually better in April than May for what it's worth but like you can kind of do the like is that that day was pretty cold too but like you can do the like is that that that different from Marcus Simeon thing in the opposite direction and say it's not that different

from Elvis Andrews who had 17 and 18 last season. Now, we don't expect him to repeat that, but like, we're also giving Ozzy Albi's a lot of benefit of the doubt that he could do 17 and 18. He deserves. I mean, he's been the most, other than Jose Altuvae over the last five years, Ozzie Albies has been the highest priority at this position. And other than last year, he's made good on it. So, like, he deserves the benefit of the doubt. He's only 20. six years old. I think he deserves the benefit of a doubt to a certain extent. I just think his swing was very, very well suited to the juiced ball era. I had the concerns last year that he wasn't going to come close to matching the power output that he had the year before. And he didn't. Now again,

extenuating circumstances. He only played 64 games. Most of their half of them were in April when the ball wasn't traveling as far. All of those things are true. But it's also true that it might just be that year was more or less who he is moving forward. Okay. Okay, one last thing here. So doing the actual math on it. Yeah, okay, 20 home runs. So if you pace out last year's home run pace, which we're saying was he accumulated during

the coldest stretch of the year where home runs were hardest to hit, if you pace out those eight home runs over the abat, over the plate appearances he had in 20, 21, it comes out to 20 home runs. So basically what you're saying. Yeah. There are just a few more things that I'm uncertain about with Albi's entering the season two. Apparently had offseason soldier surgery and it was quote just a regular cleanup. I don't believe he's played second base yet. He's planning to do so soon.

No, he did on Saturday. All right. Sorry, I made that up. But he was, you know, he was kind of being eased in. He was playing DH. We don't know exactly where he's going to batten the lineup either. I mean, he has been much better against left-handed pitching so far in his career. So he could bat second against lefties and sixth against righties.

I mean, that would affect the counting stats too. So just a few things that we're uncertain of when it comes to Ozzy Albies. Scott, I think you're very clearly taking Albies over Jazz, correct? Yep. Chris, you're going the other way. Jazz over Albies, yep. And I'll break the tie. I am also going Jazz.

If they're on the board, it's the fourth round. I need a second baseman. I'm taking Jazz over Jose Al-2V. Not over Jose L2B, over Ozzy Albies as well. Yeah, that was, I don't know. I know Chris Welsh has jazz ahead of Jose Altuve and every other second baseman for what it's worth. He's selling out for the upside there. Sure is.

A few busts for me here. I've got Danesby Swanson. It just feels like you're buying off the career year. The ADP is not outrageous. He's going around pick 75, but posted career highs across the board last season. The Bavib spiked up to 348. We saw that also in the short in 2020, small sample size. but career 313 bad bit for Danesby Swanson

and he did slow down in the second half. He hit 254, 702 OPS, line drives went down, the ground balls went up, and now he's with a much worse team. Chicago Cubs, he's not going to have the same lineup support, the same counting stats in that lineup. He also has been much better in Atlanta in his career versus on the road.

So just given the depth of the shortstop position, the players he's going around, I'd much rather have O'Neill Cruz or even Wander Franco or I'll just wait and take Carlos Correa like 50 picks later. The other name here is Jake McCarthy, this is kind of one where I just don't ever feel the need to draft him. It's just I don't ever want to draft him. I don't know why.

Maybe it's just because I think he's like a speed only type player, but they didn't love the plate discipline last year. He doesn't walk much. The strikeout rate is fine, 21.5%. But he hits a lot of ground balls. I don't know what the power output. is going to look like 20th percentile average exit velocity,

42nd percentile in max EV. The expected number is not great for Jake McCarthy last year. He was a league winner. He's extremely fast. He had 22 steals once he got called up in July last season. So I respect what he did last year, but I just don't know how much I trust it, especially in the power department. And if he gets off to a slow start,

I don't know how tied to McCarthy the Diamondbacks are. Like, do they owe him playing time? So just all of those reasons, I just don't really ever find myself drafting Jake McCarthy or Danesby Swanson. Let's take out, Chris, did you have anything? Sound like you. Oh, no, no. It's,

yeah, he was someone that, like, I opened the draft season, kind of liking a decent amount. I don't hate his price. I just, I have not drafted him yet.

And I think your point about, like, are they tied to him? Are they going to guarantee him playing time? I think that's a very good one because this is obviously a team with a decent amount of young talent. And, you know, it's not clear like if Alec Thomas is going to play every day right away. I feel like a more talented player than Jake McCarthy.

So if it comes down to it, I think it's more likely that Alex Thomas eventually play or outperforms Jake McCarthy. So yeah, it's just mostly a player that I just don't find myself drafting very often. To me, Jake McCarthy is a player that's totally, it's like totally. a needs base pick because he is you know if he is basically who he was last year then he's a huge stolen base source

available right at a point where all the stud base Steelers are gone like the you know the high end types who are also going to give you stolen bases and so if you missed out on those then I feel like Jake McCarthy is the perfect pick yeah maybe it goes

wrong but I think more likely it'll go right But I get what you're saying, that he's not. He's certainly not as established as I'd like him to be. Yeah, and there's a few guys that can give steals later on. Obviously, I think McCarthy's upside is he could steal 40 bases, but even someone like Ramon Luriano could give you 20 steals later on. Or Scott, you mentioned Nico Horner yesterday.

I think if everything works out, he could steal 30 bases this season. Obviously, different position, but kind of similar to skill set, I would say, with a better batting average than Jake McCarthy. Let's take our first break, but first, do want to promote, obviously. It is a very fun time of year. Spring training baseball, we've got the World Baseball Classic, and of course, college basketball brackets are back. Compete against Scott, Chris, and me in our FBT March Madness Bracket on the CBS Sports app.

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See terms and rules for details. We'll take a break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back into fantasy baseball today. Let's get to some news and notes because the YouTube commenters want the news and notes earlier in the podcast. And look, if there's big news, I'll talk about it. But to be honest, there's not really anything

that's crazy going on right now. So for the meantime, we'll probably stick it in the middle of the podcast. And we'll start off with Philly's manager, Rob Thompson, who has no updates on Andrew Painter's elbow. Kind of feels like they're either keeping the results to themselves or seeking second opinions. Either way, doesn't feel great about,

I don't feel great about Andrew Painter's elbow right now. I don't either, but I will mention, since it's coming up, that I did take him in Tout Wars. the 27th round of a 15-team league. Because like we always say, up that late, it's not even really worth considering the downside. Like,

what if Andrew Painter just has a minor elbow issue and they call him up, he's on track to come up May 1st. You know, I'll be glad I got him for basically nothing. There was also, I think Scott Boris was at, I actually don't know where he was,

but he was asked about Andrew Painter, that's his agent. You know, I think there was some, typical Scott Barisan flourish, but the takeaway was more like it sounds kind of minor and we're just quibbling over like what his workload's going to be. Then like his elbow exploded and he needs search. You know, it sounds like it's more like the Phillies think it's minor and want him to start pitching and Boris is trying to slow roll it a little bit. That was just my read on it anyway.

And also, Scott, I think knowing your league is very smart and something everyone should do in fantasy baseball leagues because Tout Wars, you have unlimited IL spots. So you drafted Andrew Painter, you drafted Trevor Story, your second and last round pick. You've got Lance McAllers on your team. Alex Carol Alphia will probably have to put there pretty soon as well. Sorry. Hey, that's not what the twins are saying. But unlimited IL spots, so I understand why you took the shot on those guys late in your draft. Joe Musgrove has been lying in a hyperbaric chamber every day.

in an attempt to recover more quickly from his fractured big toe. Apparently, it's a pressurized chamber that helps create stem cells to promote healing. Okay. Juan Soto ran in Padres Camp Tuesday and said he feels 100% healthy. Sounds like the calf is

all right. A. Okay. Vladimir Guerrero could be ready to hit in the batting cage by this weekend. He continues to receive treatment on his sore right knee. One day after saying Yordon Alvarez would swing a bat this weekend. They are now saying

he will swing a bat by next week, or he's hoping to do so. Guys, at what point are we actually worried about this? Yerdon Alvarez dealt with handswornis in both of his hands last year. He went on the IEL. He had a brutal August as a result of this injury. He did return in September.

He looked great. It was awesome in the postseason as well. But you would think an entire offseason, this wouldn't kind of be lingering this late into spring training. At what point are we actually worried sliding this guy down the rankings? I mean, if you have to,

if you're drafting tomorrow and you have to make a decision, I think it's perfectly reasonable to pass on Jordan Alvarez and take Juan Soto or Yeah, I've moved Juan Soto. Kyle Tucker. Kyle Tucker ahead. And maybe, you know, at least in points league.

I mean, at least in categories leagues, I think I still have Alvarez add in points. But like, because, you know, we have seen this injury now linger. And we've seen, look, he played every game last. season, but let's not forget that this was a guy who at the age of like 22 or 23 had surgery on both of his knees. So like, I think there is some lingering risk even if this wasn't an issue. So yeah,

I think when you're splitting hairs as you tend to do when you're talking about first rounders, I think it's okay to drop him closer to Mike Trout than, you know, Juan Soto at this point. But if you're talking end of round one, I'm not passing him over. until we get to the final weekend of spring training and he's still not hitting. You know, if the Astros are holding to the same line, it'll be fine for opening day. You know, it doesn't take that long

for a hitter to get ready for opening day. Sticking with the Astros, Lance McCullors has yet to resume throwing. He's been shut down for three weeks with a right forearm strain. Kyle right through a bullpen session Tuesday and is scheduled for live batting practice on Friday. If all goes well, he could pitch in a game next week.

He has been slow in spring training because of a right shoulder injury. He had a cortisone shot back in January. That is Kyle Wright. Both A.J. Puck and Tanner Scott through live batting practice Tuesday. Puck has been dealing with a groin while Tanner Scott had biceps discomfort.

Mike Clevenger will make his spring debut Saturday against the Padres. And just some performances of note, I've got four very late round pitchers here. You guys let me know if you have interest in any of these guys. A name we haven't mentioned in a while, Matthew Boyd, has 11 strikeouts to one walk,

in five innings this spring. He had nine swinging strikes on 43 pitches. Tuesday. Usay Kikuchi has allowed one hit with nine strikeouts over seven shutout innings this spring. Had 10 swinging strikes on Tuesday. His second start with double-digit swinging strikes so far this spring.

And apparently has been emphasizing his change-up, which last year was a really good pitch. The problem is he only used it 13% of the time. Shintaro Fujianami looked much better in his second start. He went three innings. allowed one run. He had three strikeouts, eight swinging strikes on 52 pitches. And Tanner Halk flashed a pretty sick changeup. I was watching the highlights of his

strikeouts, and he struck out Matt Olson with this pitch. He struck out another left-handed batter on the Braves. This change-up looked pretty awesome. We know he's got a really good slider. He throws hard with the fastball, but I was pretty impressed by that change-up. Do you guys have any interest in Boyd, Kukuchi, Fujimami, or Tanner Halk, very late in drafts? I kind of want to make the mean girls reference with Tanner Halk for the fantasy baseball community. Just stop trying to make fetch happen. But you could throw the same thing in my face with you say Kukuchi, who I remain intrigued by because he throws hard and seemingly has good stuff and just seemingly also has absolutely no command like 80% of the time. So I don't know.

I can't say I'm like moving you say Kukuchi into the draftable range. but in a 15 team league, I'll keep an eye out for him. Yeah. I was watching that game. He looked good. Mitch Keller was also pitching. Someone made the joke that this was

the Sunday Scott White two-start sleepers performance. I thought that was a pretty good bit. I thought they both looked okay, but I'm also just very much on guard of not hyping you say Kukuchi or Mitch Keller anymore? Yeah, I would say what they've done so far has put them on my radar in terms of

I'm going to keep monitoring what they're doing. But I'm not to the point with any of these pitchers where I'm really moving them into the draftable range of my rankings because it's like, you know, the draft ends at some point and you can't have everybody and they're just not, they haven't quite met that threshold for me yet. It's worth mentioning with Kukukki. Cucci and Tanner Hauk both have SPARP eligibility for those who play in head-to-head points leagues.

Boyd might too. Doesn't Boyd? I don't think so. I'll check that. Pretty sure I checked earlier and he didn't have SPARP eligibility, but... Oh, no, you're right. He does have SPARP eligibility. Yeah, he's actually only relief pitcher eligible.

So, again, for those who play in head-to-points, that's starting pitcher as a relief pitcher. So it's kind of a cheat code. Boyd, Cucci, and Tanner Halk all have that eligibility. Two hitter notes. One of Scott's breakouts from yesterday, Garrett Mitchell smoked his third home run of the spring. Had someone tweet me who was actually at the game and they said, man, that thing got out in a hurry. He continues to look really good. And Oscar Coloss, two more hits and a walk. He's now batting 429 this spring. The broadcast said the White Sox no. Coloss right now can hit in the majors. They just need to see him do everything else and do it consistently. What's up? He's making the team. He should. I mean,

Like that kind of comment that he's making the team. Do they want? How is Gavin Sheets positioning? Yeah, I was going to say like Gavin Sheets in right field, you probably don't want that. But they just want to see the little things. They want to see his positioning on defense for Oscar Coloss and base running fundamentals and little things like that. But the dude can absolutely hit.

So if you're playing in five outfielder leagues, you definitely should be taking Oscar Coloss very late in your drafts. I'm beginning to wonder with Garrett Mitchell, you know, third home run this He had two in the 28 games he played in the majors last year. We talked about how he's strong and has raw power, but just puts the ball on the ground so much that it'd be nice if he made a swing change. But maybe just with his swing as it is, he could be a 12 to 15 homer guy. He's got 13 and like 120-something career games in the minors.

Yeah. And that would, you know, he's not just a steel specialist at that point. They'll still be a great source of steals. I mean, obviously, he has to be able to hit consistently to stay in the lineup. But, yeah, I'm getting more and more bullish on Garrett Mitchell. MLB park factors, according to Statcast, American Family Field in Milwaukee, fifth best for left-handed power over the past three seasons. So something else that could also favor Garrett Mitchell.

Let's get back into our bust 2.0. and Chris will start with you this time. You've got two pitchers on the list, Dylan Seas and Logan Gilbert. Yeah, and C's probably has a pretty high floor just because of the strikeouts, but I'm getting real like 2017 Robbie Ray vibes from what he did last season. The problem is the big step forward in our understanding of pitching came in like the early 2000s when the idea of defense independent pitching stats came around and FIPP. and the idea that pitchers only have control of strikeouts, home runs, and walks.

And we understand that that's a less than nuanced understanding of the game. Pitchers do have control over the quality of contact that they allow and not just when it comes to home runs. The question is how much control and how quickly can we determine a change in skill set? Dylan Sees went from a 383 expected Wobon contact in 2021 to a 313 mark in 2022. He basically went from a slightly below average quality of contact guy to one of the very best in baseball. Better than Sandy Alcantra, not quite in the Julio Aureus range, but very, very good. His strikeout rate actually took a small step back last year. His walk rate was actually a little bit higher than it was in 2021.

It was the quality of contact. And maybe it's just started throwing his slider 40% of the time and that slider is a really good pitch. and that'll be enough. Quality of contact metrics for pitchers take a very, very long time to stabilize. Like we're talking more than a full season to stabilize. Presumably you want multiple seasons worth of data to say, this guy's really good at quality of contact suppression.

This guy's really bad at it. It's possible that he's just really good now. But when the entirety of his breakout was based on making a gigantic leap in a category that is very, very hard, One, to change and control and two, to know when a change has happened for sure. I just, I feel like there's a big step back coming from Dylan Seas. We saw that stretch last season where he had like, what was it, 13 unearned runs in a six-start stretch or something. So it ended up being, you know, this crazy low ERA.

Oh, yes. I'll look it up because I think, I think Dylan Seas is going to be useful for fantasy. I just think there's a chance we're talking about more like a three-eight ERA. then, I mean, he's not repeating the two-two. He already had last season. But, like, I think more if he might go back to his 2021 numbers. Yeah, like, I could see, like, the difference between Dylan's season 2021 and 2022 is a lot smaller than his overall numbers would make you think.

So he had an 11-start stretch in which he allowed three earned runs and 10 unearned runs. Yeah. The ADP4, Dylan, Cs is 40. So he has been pushed down a little bit. I remember earlier in the offseason, he was like a top six or seven starter. He was consistently going in the third round. And now he's falling back down a little bit forth.

I've seen even some drafts where he falls to the fifth round in 12-team leagues. That is Dylan C's. Chris, the other one that you're fading here is Logan Gilbert, who had a really successful sophomore campaign. The problem is that he allows a lot of hard contact. The swinging strike rate took a step back last year as well. So he's young.

he's exciting, but the underlying numbers just don't really add up for Logan Gilbert. Yeah, he's one where the expected ERA was well below or well above his actual mark. 320 ERA and 185 and two-thirds. Innings 411XERA. His strikeout rate was basically average last season after being, you know, slightly, you know, decently above average in 2021. And like I could see squinting and getting like a Shane Bieber-esque outcome. He's got good command, good control.

But like, I don't know where it's going to come from. And I think that's what people are assuming is that he's going to build off what he did last season, maybe get the strikeout rate. He doesn't really have the secondary pitches to get there. I know he worked at drive line and there's been talk about a new splitter and maybe that'll help. But I just, I don't think any of his secondary pitches, you know, the curveball or the slider are really the types of swing and miss pitches that he's going to. going to need to take that step forward. He's very fastball reliant. I just, I don't see very much to get excited about. And it's, for me, with Gobert, it's more, it's more about the price than it is the risk of huge falloff. Because I think he's probably going to be pretty good. He's probably going to

pitch pretty deep in the games and be useful, especially in your points leagues. But like, I think he, he's probably more like a high three ZRA without a big change in his skill set. And I just don't know where the skill set change comes from. All right, Scott, let's move over to you for your bus 2.0, and you've got two pretty injury-prone pitchers, I would say, in Jacob de Grom and Freddie Peralta. Yeah, so when we were doing our pitcher preview, we had a discussion about Jacob de Grom,

and the more we talked it through, the more I realized, like, I just want no part of this guy, you know? it's just like I expect it to go wrong because you know it's easy to be injury agnostic and say you know I just want to consider the upside of a player and because injuries could happen to anybody and it doesn't mean he's going to get injured again

and that's fine to think that in a lot of cases it's I think it's reasonable to think that in Jasim's case even but with de Grom there seems to be a pretty clear reason why he keeps getting injured. So his last two full-length seasons, he won the Cy Young both times. He was the best pitcher in baseball. There was 2018, one with a 170 ERA, 2019, he won with a 243 ERA,

best pitcher in baseball, and was able to hold up over a full season. And then he came to 2020 season where he held up because it was only 60 games. and then came the last two seasons where he went 92 innings and 64 and third innings respectively, clearly not enough for him to justify his price tag. What happened after 2019, that last Syung season, is he went from being just another hard thrower, which was good enough. He was the best pitcher in baseball like that to one of the very hardest throwers in baseball. His average fastball velocity jumped two miles per hour.

And it's continued to go up. In 2021, it was up three miles per hour from that last Siong season. And look, it's made him arguably even more dominant on a per inning basis. His swinging strike rate is unlike that of any other starting pitcher. But it's a rare case of a pitcher who I just wish wouldn't throw so hard. I wish he'd lose a few miles per hour because he's already. proven he doesn't need it and I think the last couple years his inability

to hold up corresponding to that velocity increase shows that his little body can't take it. It's more velocity than it's tearing him apart. Tearing me apart. Exactly. And so yeah, I just think it's going to keep happening for DeGrom

and these guys, this is age 35 season. And I am pretty famously injury agnostic or at least more injury agnostic than most people. That's less true with pitchers. The human arm was not designed to throw baseballs the way we do. If you think about most of human evolutionary history, we're

throwing spears and stuff. That's the primary throwing implement. It's a very different motion than the way you throw baseball. It's why Tommy John's surgery is much less of a concern for a quarterback than is for a starting pitcher in baseball. It's a really unnatural motion. and throwing it 98 miles an hour, especially doing that 3,000 times a year, increases the risk of that. And so I just, yeah, DeGrom, it's just, it is one of those things where, like,

if he throws 140 innings, he's probably worth whatever you pay for, right? Like, he's so good. And even, like, the other thing is, like, even if he throws 80 innings, it's sort of like having an elite closer on your team. and so I can see the appeal in that. But yeah, it's... But without the saves, which is the most... Right, without the saves, which is, yeah,

in terms of the ratios, at least. Like, he's going to be hugely impactful for your ratios. Whenever he pitches, it just... He's not someone that I end up drafting, because I want the 180. Like, my whole pitching strategy is built around the idea of getting one of those guys who can give me the 180 innings of elite ratios, so that I can take those chances later on in my draft.

I don't necessarily want to have to draft Miles Michaelis to potentially shore up my inning's shortcomings if I take check to DeGrom. For a fifth or sixth round starting pitcher, and DeGrom, like, his ADP is actually more like third round. Like, you can't, like, you need that volume or else it's just a wasted pick, even how good, no matter how good he is on an inning per any basis.

I do want to touch on Freddie Peralta real quick because this isn't one we've talked about a lot. So he's another bus pick of mine. And obviously he was really good in 2021. Maybe he bounces back to that. But the scary thing for me is that, well, it's easy to just look at his disappointing 2022 and say, okay, he missed time with injury. Hopefully he's healthy this year and can be more like 2021.

Well, the thing is, even when he was healthy last year, the Brewers coddled the heck out of him. He had 18 appearances last year, Freddie Peralta. 17 of them starts. Of those 18 appearances, do you know how many times he went six innings or more? I have it in front of me, Scott. Should I give you the answer? Is four. That's right.

Four times in those 18 appearances. And by the way, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine of them, half of them were less than five. So maybe the efforts to keep him healthy are going to keep him from being an impactful pitcher anyway. I just even in the range he's going. I find I gravitate towards so many other guys instead. And he's going in a range, Scott, where there's a decent amount of upside at starting pitcher. So the ADP for Freddie Peralta, 136.4.

He's the 40th starting pitcher off the board. He's going right around Lance Lynn. I mean, I have wax poetic about Lance Lynn. I'm a pretty big fan this season. other names. He looks good in Spring, too. Yeah, yeah, he looked great. Again, on Tuesday, he's going ahead of

Freddie Peralta going ahead of Dustin May, ahead of Chris Sale, ahead of Jeffrey Spring. So a lot of our either breakout or sleeper picks this season, he flashed the upside a couple years ago, but this is now a recurring shoulder injury for Freddie Peralta and something that I am pretty worried about myself.

Two names for me, and I'm going to stick with the theme here, Scott. It's two quite injury-prone players or guys that are entering the season kind of banged up already, I guess, in Tony Gonsland's case. Byron Buckson, I'm sorry, Chris, over the past three full seasons, he has played 49% of his games. The ADP is not nearly as high as it has been in years past, but he's still a top 100 pick,

so it's a decent-sized investment for a guy who is now been dealing with recurring hip and knee injuries. Last year, Buckson played 35 of his 92 games at D.H. so they were protecting him like nearly a third of the games that he played they didn't want him roaming the outfield they didn't really let him steal bases last year he had six steals

so I think his skill set has kind of changed for fantasy and he's really really injury prone so Byron Buckson it's just not for me if you want to take the injury risk I get there's upside there but it's just not going to be for me and then Tony Gonslyn last year limited to around 130 innings

dealt with a forearm injury He's dealt with shoulder injuries in the past. He has a sprained ankle so far in spring, so we haven't even seen him yet. There's just a lot of injury question more. We've seen him. We've seen him. He just sprained his ankle this week, and they say he should still be fine for opening day. He's also going in that same range.

Scott. I know there are drafts where he slips. For example, in your Tout war draft, he lasted super late. But typically the ADP is right around Freddie Peralta. And I think they're both pretty. injury risky. They're both very risky, but I get Gonsolin was awesome last year. I don't, I'm not taking anything away from him. He was much better than Freddie Peralta. But the risk for me, I mean, to, to pass on the upside of again, like the Dustin Mays or Chris Sales or I mean, I like Lazzardo more than

him. Jeffrey Springs. Oh, yeah. No, I agree with that. I'm just, I do want to say if it like, you know, going by his ADP, I have no problem calling Tony Gonsal in a bust. But if this ankle injury, which again, that doesn't sound like it's a big deal. He just twisted his ankle a little. If it causes him to slide as much as it did in the Tout Wars draft, I just did, I got him a 109 fifth overall, barely inside the top 200. So that was one of my favorite picks. Yeah, I mean, even that, like, I can get behind that.

If he's pushing 200, sure, I mean, by the dip on Tony Gonslyn, but around 130, it's not going to be for me. And Scott, you were correct. He made a start on March 3rd. Gonsland did. He went 2 and 1 3rd. to give up three hits, two walks, with two strikeouts in his spring training debut. Let's say.

Can I just one quick point? Because you did personally attack me by listing Byron Buxton as a bust. What's the case for Luis Robert with a third round pick when you're not willing to take a ninth round pick on Byron Buxton or an eighth round pick on Byron Buckston? I mean, I wouldn't use a third round pick on Robert either. Well, you've got him ranked 33rd, I think, 35th. something like that. So, well, it sounds like, I think he's a much, like he is for, he is almost certainly going to help. Is he a better player?

He's almost certainly going to help in batting average. Sure. Then probably won't. It may hurt. So that's one thing. The other thing is we're talking about two years of health issues for Robert versus a decade for Buxton. This is a case where I think Luis Robert is being helped by the fact that he wasn't in the majors when he was dealing with a ton of injury issues in the minors. because remember he only played...

Well, right, but he only played 28 games in 2017. He played 50 in 2018. 2019, he played 122. That's the only time he's ever played more than 98 games in a season. Yeah. He's also four years younger than Buxent. But to your point, Chris, I think you can make the bus case for Luis Robert as well. And I probably wouldn't push back that.

I don't like him at his ADP. I got him 75th in TOW Wars. This highlights, I just want to... This highlights. One of my issues with the way we talk collectively, and Frank, I'm not picking on you about Byron Buxton. The way we collectively as a fantasy industry talk about injuries is it's so unscientific. And some guys are injury prone and some guys aren't. And I get it.

Byron Buxton never stays healthy. My Twitter mentions never fail to remind me of that every time he gets hurt. Thanks, guys. I think he's worth this price even if he does get him. hurt. That's the biggest thing for me. It's just like the way he's played over the past three seasons. I really think he's a top 20 player on a per game basis at this point. And so I'm still willing to take the risk, even though I acknowledge there's a lot of risk there. And you could make more of a case for Bucson. Obviously in a shallower league, the shallower you are, the better the replacement value will

be. You don't get a zero when Bucson goes out. You're going to replace him with either someone on your bench or someone on your waiver wire. So if you're playing a 12 team points league, the waiver wire is very fruitful. All right, maybe you're more willing to take a risk reward type player like Byron Buxden. But I mean, if we're playing in a five outfieler league, even 12 team league or gosh, a 15 team five outfieler league,

a top 100 pick on Byron Buxton, we, I mean, it's, it is big time risk. And at that point, I'm not sure if the reward is worth it because the replacement is going to be very, very bad. Let's take one more break and we'll be back right after this. Let's wrap up with a few more bus picks for this upcoming season. Scott will start off with you. The last remaining names, I don't have any type of theme or anything that brings them together,

but they are CJ Crone and Ryan Helsley. Okay, so let's start with Helsley, who, was he technically the number one reliever by the CVS Roto Formula last year? If not, he was close to it. I think he was either second or third because he had a lot of wins as well. Right. It was kind of a,

it was a fluky thing for a number of reasons. He had only 19 saves, of course, and nobody thinks of him in terms of time. He went nine and one. One believer, but he had nine wins for reliever. He also had a 125 ERA

and a .74 whip, which is hard to repeat. And in Helsley's case, the reason we hadn't seen that from him before is because he, like, Started throwing even harder. So, like, I think it would be difficult to sustain just, you know,

mathematically ratios that low. But then you have to factor in can his arm even sustain it. So, yeah, his average fastball velocity increased two miles per hour last year. There's a big job. Average 99.6 on that fastball. And, you know, as, as we talked about with DeGrom, the human body can't withstand that. For some people it can,

but Helsley hasn't proven he's one of those people just because he was able to do it for last year. So between just the likelihood is ratios regress, the potential injury risk there, or even if he doesn't get hurt, just will he keep throwing that hard? And then also the fact he pitches for a team that, I think,

doesn't approach the back end of the bullpen so traditionally. Like even after Helsley kind of transitioned it into the role, Giovanni Gaiagos was stealing some save chances. So it's kind of a three prongs of concerns there for Ryan Helsley that pretty much ensures I'm not going to draft him. The other one is C.J. C.J. C.C. C.C. C.C. C.C. C.C. I just kind of have a bad feeling about him. He's 33 now.

He's only viable. at home in Coorsfield course he hit 303 with a 955 OPS there versus versus 214 with a 619 OPS on the road so you kind of don't want him in your lineup every week anyway

but then there's also the fact like as ugly as those splits are his first and second half splits were even worse in the first half last year CJ Cron hit 298 with a 902 OPS second half 197 with a 604 OPS what was going on there. Like I said, he's pretty old.

He plays for his base, so the ability to replace him is very high. It could be, oh my gosh, I'm horrible remembering names. Who's that young guy who got called up and played mostly outfield, but he's in Michael Tolia. It could be Michael

Tolia who replaces C.J. Crone at some point if he doesn't, if he doesn't the ground running. It could be any of a number of other players in the Rockies organization. I could just see things going really wrong for him and I find that I'd much rather have Anthony Rizzo or Rowdy Tellez instead who both tend to go later. Yeah, I think the point about the ADP, Scott, the fact that CJ Crohn's going at 124.2

and it is a very deep position. So Routy Telez is going nearly 50 picks later on average. I feel like recently that gap has closed a little bit, but you're still getting Roddy to Les later than you are, C.J. Cron. So I agree with that one. Ryan Helsley, not only does he need to maintain the velocity gains from year over year from 21 to 22, the walk rate, prior to 2022, 4.4 walks per 9,

last year it was 2.78. It just feels like we are relying on Helzley to maintain a lot of big, big improvements that he made last year. Maybe he will and make us look foolish, but I think there are other relievers that are either going right around him or just after him that also have really good stuff

and are further entrenched in their respective closers role. Guys like Riesel-Glaece is Kenley Jansen, Felix Bautista. I know time's running low, but I do want to mention commenters are pointing out, C.J. Cron was contending with a wrist injury in the second half last year. So maybe that explains the dramatic first second half shifts. Slits.

I don't find it entirely comforting. though. I'll consider it more before I actually write my bus 2.0 article, but I still just, I just, I still feel uneasy about him relative to some of those are basements. Yeah, according to pro sports transactions, CJ Chrome was day to day two different times in July last season with a wrist injury. So definitely possible that something was hampering him during that time period. Chris, you are up and the bus that I have down for you here, one cardinals out. outfielder and one former Cardinals outfielder. Yeah, Tyler O'Neill, it's just there's an awful lot of pressure for playing time in that Cardinals outfield right now.

We don't know who the odd man out is going to be. And maybe it won't be anybody. Maybe Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson and Lars Neupar and Jordan Walker will all play and we'll all be good. And Cardinals fans will be happy, best fans in baseball. But I just, I don't know if Tyler O'Neill's that good. He's clearly a physical specimen. He would probably win a bodybuilding competition among all MLB players. He is really quite jacked up.

The problem is we have one season in the majors where he's hit at a high level. That was 2021. And he struck out 31% of the time. That's always going to be an issue for him. The problem is because of that, he really has to create a ton of exit velocity. He can't just be good in terms of eggs of velocity because last year he was good. He was like 64th percentile max exeiros, 66th and average eggs of Velos, and you add it all up and he wasn't a particularly good player because he struck out 27% of time. That was actually an

improved strikeout rate for him, by the way. I just, I can see a scenario and it's not particularly hard to imagine because we saw it a little bit last year where if he's just not all that good, he starts losing playing time and not. So not only do you have to contend with the fact that, yeah, he just might not be all that good, but he might also not be that good while not playing every day if the Cardinals, you know,

if Lars Noobar is as good as we think and Jordan Walker is as good as we think. So I just, I don't know, there's just, this is one where there are a lot of paths that every given player can take and a lot of Tyler O'Neils

end up with him being a pretty big disappointment as a top 100 pick because that's still where he's going. So yeah, I just, I can't justify the price. And then I went on Twitter, yesterday because I was riding my bus column and I just asked people like who's the one player who

just like it's not about price you just have no interest in drafting them and Harrison Bader's after me I just I don't see the appeal whatsoever he stole a bunch of bases when he was with the cardinals last year he stopped stealing bases when he was with the Yankees I think he had two in 36 games I think including the playoffs he did hit a bunch of home runs in the playoffs his quality of contact metrics are dreadful some of the worst four a legitimate major league player that you'll see 83 mile per hour average exit velocity, I think last season. I just,

I don't see what Harrison Bader brings to the table that makes him worth, even like the 180th pick, which is where he's going. I think there are plenty of players with dramatically more upside than Harrison Bader. He just, he's someone who never comes up on my cue. Like he goes, yeah,

that, that's a player. I struggle to rank Harrison Bader because it's like, but he's going to be drafted. So where do I put him in the rankings? Yeah, like you might get, if he plays the whole season. Yeah, like if he plays the whole season,

he's probably going to get 15 and 15 because he's done that before. It's just like, God, the path there is just going to be. Actually, he's never done 15 and 15. He's done 15 and 15 in separate seasons. He's traded. He's traded off skill sets, Chris. It's like one year he's been better at a,

a home run hitter. One year he's been better as a base sealer. He's never just actually put it together. Yeah. And I just, he also dealt with the planter fasciitis injury last year. That's the kind of thing that can linger. I think there was talk of him needing surgery at one point. He ended up not having it. I just, he is a player that like, even at a cheap price, I just don't see much point. And I'd rather, if we're talking late round outfielders, I'd rather take the flyer on Alex Thomas figuring it out than Harrison Bader. I think even like Harold Ramirez,

Joey Gallo, I'd rather take a flyer on. There's a lot of guys. Oscar Colos is cheaper than him. Alex Kiraloff. Yeah. I, no thank you.

Gosh, I mean, Joey Gallo, Chris, we just got a cool it, man. What are we doing here? Joey Gallo.

Jake Freely. I would rather take a flyer on Jake Fraley than Harrison Bader. Oh, Jake Fraley. I love Jake Frayley. Jorge Soler, Estuary Ruiz at least has more stolen base upside, Jesse Winker, Trey Mancini, a lot of guys, Brian Dela Cruz,

a lot of guys are cheap. Ramon Loriano, a lot of guys are cheaper than Harrison Bader who I'd rather have. That last one is the one. Ramon Luriano and Harrison Bader, I think, have very similar skill sets. Luriano is going 70 picks later in terms of ADP. So, Loriano's done it. He had a 24-Homer 13th steel season.

Yeah, I like Lurian. Yeah, it was a while ago. Yeah. It was. Harrison Bader was active in 2019. But Harrison Bader was active in 2019 and wasn't that good. Yeah.

I'll quickly wrap up with two more bus for me. Chris, yesterday you mentioned you can make the breakout and bus case for both for Hunter Green. And I am now going to make that bus case for him. He has someone who is a fly ball pitcher and an extreme one, 48.5% fly ball rate in the worst ballpark in baseball to be a flyball pitcher in in Great American ballpark in Cincinnati. Not only that, these aren't like lazy fly balls, like the Christian Javier fly balls. We're talking 18th percentile average exit velocity,

30th percentile in hard hit rate. So I get Hunter Green is fun to watch, 100 mile per hour fastball, wipeout slider, but when he gets hit, he has these blow-up starts, or at least he did last year. He could improve in his second C. but I'm still pretty skeptical in that ballpark that he pitches in. And the other one for me is another reliever. It's Camillo Doval. Just between the walk rate, he has a, let's see here, 3.7 walks per nine in his career.

It actually was hovering around four walks per nine last year, and the strikeout rate took a step back. The fact that Gabe Kapler is his manager to, look, last year, Doval was the guy. I'll admit that. I was wrong, Scott, you were right. You said, who was the closer going into the year? Jake McGee, your bold prediction once he wouldn't even have five saves.

Guess what? He didn't get to five saves. It was Camila Duval and he was awesome. And it seems like management has backed him up to this point. But I just really worry about the command. And the fact that they signed another really good reliever in Taylor Rogers. So if there are any hiccups, I think that they can go down that route. Closer is already a pretty scary, volatile position.

I'm not going to do the Camila Duval thing. I'm also not going to do the Ryan Helsie thing. So there's a bunch of other names. I'd rather take a shot on in that. range. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.