Fantasy Baseball Today - Busts 2.0! Tyler Glasnow, Zac Gallen & Other Players to Avoid (3/7 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 7, 2024

Before we get into the names, a quick PSA on busts in Fantasy Baseball (2:20). ... Is there too much risk with Tyler Glasnow (7:08)? ... Which rookie hitter will disappoint (9:30)? ... Will there be a hangover with Zac Gallen (14:35)? ... News (19:22): Lucas Giolito is going for a second opinion on his elbow. ... Yoshinobu Yamamoto is human after all (25:10). ... What's going on with Carlos Rodon (33:17)? ... Is Cody Bellinger a bust candidate (41:00)? ... Let's quickly recap our Busts 1.0 (46:02). ... Why are we avoiding Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman and Luis Robert at their ADPs (52:42)? ... What's the downside with Matt McLain, Tommy Edman and Anthony Volpe (1:00:26)? ... We wrap up with the rest of our Busts 2.0 (1:08:47). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, March 7th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, Bust 2.0. The players were looking to avoid in drafts and the latest free.

training standouts. It turns out that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is human after all. Who would have thought it? I do want to start with a quick reminder that just because we have a player as a bust doesn't mean he's an avoid at all costs. Maybe there are a few exceptions out there, but usually a bust is an avoid at current average draft position, and obviously every draft is different.

I noticed something in a lot of our mock drafts that we've done. The players that we've talked up as busts typically fall well. beyond ADP. And as the million dollar man once said, everybody has a price. So I don't know if there's anything that you guys would like to add to that before we get into bus 2.0. But I thought it was like a good PSA here at the top.

I just want to say that I am a man of principle, unlike the two of you who are cowards. And I don't need to put this, oh, I like this player. No, every player I have is a bust. I hate. Wait, wouldn't it make you less of a coward to take a player that you've also called a bus? No, because you're hedging your bets.

You're saying, oh, but the price was right. And that way you can play both sides. No. If you say a player is a bust, it means you think they are worthless. You think they are lower than the lowest animal. Okay. No, obviously not. Okay.

No, I agree 100%. Royal. I would draft every single one of my bus at the right price. And yeah, just because you say a player's bus does not, in fact, mean that you hate them or anything like that. You don't need to like, you have this guy six spots lower than ADP. Why do you hate him? We don't need to ever do that. Someone's got to go in every spot.

And look, I personally, I hope I'm wrong about every point. about every player that I think is a bus, because for the most part, they are valuable assets in fantasy, and a lot of them are fun players who I tend to want to root for. It's just, we're going to be disappointed by someone.

Wow. Many, many, some ones. You equivocated even more than Frank did at the end of that. So, you know, it's, it's, no,

I'm basically with you guys. I think the main thing is that, for my busts anyway, I am saying these guys have abnormally high downside risk. Like, they could just completely blow your season up because of the disaster potential there. You know, I try to not treat my bus list like this is an inefficient pick. like, oh, he's going in round 11, but he should really be going in round 13. To me, that's, you know, that's not going to ruin your season.

It's really more, if you take this guy, you have to do it with the understanding. Things could go really, really wrong. But as Chris was saying, usually players who fit that profile with extreme downside risk also have really high upside. And so, yeah, like I find myself two players on my bus, and we talked about him in a bus one Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger. I find myself drafting them a lot because they tend to meet a need

that only they can meet at the point in the draft where they go, particularly if Snell falls as he tends to do an expert draft, particularly the longer he goes unsigned. He is the last of the elite strikeout sources remaining and sometimes I need another strikeout source. So I end up taking Blake Snell. Bellinger, he's an outfielder who can contribute

in all five categories. And there are few, you know, you get past round three, four, there are very few of those left that you feel particularly confident in. So even though Bellinger, I don't feel particularly confident in either, it's not like he's unique in that regard once you get into round five. So yeah, that's, I agree with the point. Some of my busts I'm less likely to end up with than others, but some, you just have to acknowledge the downside risk when you're taking them

and maybe still go forward with it if it's the right fit for your team. I do understand your point about inefficient pick, Scott, not necessarily having those in your bus column. I think it holds more weight earlier in drafts, right? So, Ellie Daler Cruz is someone I don't think should be a second or third round pick, but if he was going in like the fifth or sixth round,

then I think that you could take on a little bit more risk the further you go into the draft. It's just like when he's going in the second or third round, I think that's probably a little bit too risky for me. but yeah, like where O'Neill Cruz is going, seventh or eighth round, you know, you can usually get them as like your fourth or fifth hitter, and I think you could afford to take on more risk

at that point in the draft. Let's get into Bust 2.0, and Scott, we will start with you a player, a new addition to Bust 2.0, that you have been avoiding. Kind of an obvious one, but I'm going to say it anyway. It's Tyler Glass now.

And the reason I'm saying it with 2.0 versus 1.0 is when Bust 1.0 came out, I thought I could justify taking Tyler Glassnow where he's going. I thought given the state of starting pitcher where you have a limited number of impactful, reliable starters at the top of the rankings and then a giant glob of random number generators, even though Tyler Glass now is a known injury risk, never thrown more than 120 innings in a major league season, the impact he's going to make in whatever starts he gives you is going to be so good. that like it's it's worth taking it just because it avoids having another pitcher in the glob. But when push comes to shove, when we're actually drafting,

I found I just don't have the stomach for it. I just can't bring myself to do it. It's too early. There are enough other ace caliber pitchers there. And the other thing is that while it's true, Tyler Glass now set a career high with 120 innings last year, just talking major league innings. that doesn't mean 120 is for sure what he's going to get.

He might only get 20 or 60, you know, like it might not even be half a season's worth of starts. And I mean, that is as clear of a landmine, like a draft landmine that you step on and it blows up your season. That's as clear as it gets, I think. So I'm pretty much out on Tyler Glass now. I don't think even in a single mock draft have I taken him. The ADP for Glass Now is 42.8, according to Fantasy Pros as the 12th starting pitcher off the board. I'm not as against taking Glass Now

because I think you can kind of pair him with other innings eaters or higher floor guys like a Logan Webb, a Kirby, like whatever, just some of the boring guys later on, Jordan Montgomery's, Jose Burrios'. But I will say if you're someone who likes to take Chris Sale or Michael King later on, then you probably shouldn't take Tyler Glass Now early. because to me, having multiple of those guys on one team together is really, really risky. So you might want to save that injury risk for later on in your draft. Chris, let's go over to you in addition to bust 2.0.

One of the rookies. I'm not going to, I'm not going to plant a flag and say it's definitely Wyatt Langford. Wow. You're hedging your head. You're hedging your bed. He is the biggest coward on this. It's going to be one of the rookies who's getting pushed up. I mean, you know, we've seen Langford, Churio, and Evan Carter at this point are all like top 110 picks in most drafts that are happening over the last week or so.

Jackson Holiday is getting pushed up into like the 150-ish range. And look, it's been a very good decade for top prospects who get drafted in the top 100. It's happened. I've talked about this a lot, but I've done the research over the last decade. there have been 10 top prospects drafted inside of the top 100 in fantasy drafts as rookies. All but one returned at least $12 in that season. The one exception was Vladimir Guerrero, who was the highest drafted of them. And then, you know, he was a slightly negative player, basically a replacement level player as a rookie.

The problem is that 100, that top 100 thing is it's weeding out a lot of guys. who weren't very good as a rookie. Remember Ian Anderson? He was a 100.4 ADP guy. He was pretty bad that year. Jorge Salare, 104. He was a negative player. Brian Hayes, 132 his rookie season.

So I just want to say, and I will, I haven't written my bus 2.0 column. So there might be like, I don't know if I love Evan Carter. Like, I'm not sure if I see the upside. there from from a power perspective. I don't know if he's going to run enough to make up for it. He might just be like a 15-15 guy who gets on base a lot. Chris. I'm aware.

I'm aware. Both against Logan Gilbert. Gilbert, good pitcher. Pretty good. I'm aware. I just like it actually, honestly, it might be Wyatt Langford with the, the way the hype is building around him. Like, I think he's going to be a very, very good.

player, but these guys don't always hit. And the quickness with which he's risen is a little concerning given we still don't know if he's got a job. So it might be, I might be saying Wyatt Langford's a bust. Maybe. Even if he's not up on opening day, though, I think he's going to be up pretty soon after that. Look, anything can happen, but that's just my guess, right? Like, If he goes to AAA and he just rakes like he did down in the minors last year, Wyatt Langford is going to be up pretty soon. Of the ones we're talking about, so let's put the names out there. It's Jackson Chorio, Jackson Holiday, Wyatt Langford, and Evan Carter.

I have trouble thinking of Evan Carter as a prospect just because he was around for so long last year with the Rangers being having a deep playoff run. but are those the only four we're really exciting on here? I would say of those four, Wyatt Langford is the one I'm most hesitant to draft. And it's mostly just because the other three, I'd be surprised if they didn't make the team.

And Wyatt Langford, I think is at best 50-50 of making the team because they don't have an open outfield spot and they may need DH for Corey Seeger sooner than later. And they probably, We don't want to confine White Lankford to DH anyway. So it's just a difficult fit there.

And it's just the reality of a team as loaded as the Rangers that they may not be able to make room for wide. And since March, I mean, it's six days right now. But since the start of March in NFBC drafts, I did this for ADP Riders and Follers for tomorrow's FBT newsletter, which is described CBSports.com slash newsletters. Lankford's ADP since the start of March, 113.

That's basically on the strength of like three home runs in two games. Right? Like not much. He was 150 in February. That climbed a lot over the course of February. But it's basically that he had two games over the weekend where he had three home runs. And look, I really, really like Wyatt. I think he's going to be an incredible player.

But he has a very limited track record as a professional. He was great at double. A great at AAA. I think it was like 17 games total across those two levels. So it's just rookies are inherently high variance. And the Wyatt Langford helium isn't necessarily based on the best reasoning. You know, like he's had like 20 played appearances in spring. A quick addition to bus 2.0 for me is Zach Gallen. The ADP is 37 as the seventh starting pitcher off the board.

two years in a row that I've now labeled Zach Gowen as a bust. We all know how that turned out last year. Worried about a few things here. First, the innings. He threw 243 and two-thirds innings between the regular and the postseason combined. That is unheard of in today's game. So I wonder if there is a bit of a hangover effect here for Zach Gowan. Doesn't get as many whiffs as other aces, 11.2% swinging strike rate.

That was ranked 27th among qualified starting pitchers. He also allows a lot of hard contact, 91.5. average exit velocity against. That ranked in the third percentile. And as a result, a 418 expected ERA, according to Stackcast. Fated in the second half, if you look at 21 starts between the second half and the postseason, a 416 ERA and a 124 whip. It just wouldn't be surprised if we get an ERA in the high threes,

right around a strikeout per inning. He made me look dumb last year. He's certainly capable of doing it again. It's just, I found a big, test of your rankings and who you like to draft and who you don't is just being in a draft. And there are just always times where I pass up Zach Gallen. In my

TGFBI draft, I took Logan Webb straight up over Zach Gallen. That might be really dumb. But I don't know, I'm just worried about all these things with Zach Gallen, so I'm out. Yeah, I kind of get it. But the more ERA risk, I think how many strikeouts to Gallen have last year?

Because we don't think of him, he's not like a big K-per-9 guy, but I think he had. Well, if I think he probably got over 200. Yeah, I think he did because he was over a strike operating. So that's like 35 more than Webb, which is why I wouldn't have made that call. But I get what you're saying. Like, Gallin's probably somebody who wouldn't make my bust list because I see, if anything, I see it as more an inefficiency than true bottom out potential,

unless it gets hurt, obviously. But you could make that argument for just about any pitcher. But I hear you. I hear what you're saying. Before we take our first break, quickly promote a few things. Make sure to sign up for our fantasy baseball today newsletter, CBSports.com slash newsletters. Click on that FBT logo, punch in your email address,

and it's easy as that. If you're watching us live on YouTube, scan the QR code that will take you right to the website to, again, sign up for the newsletter that Chris does a great job with and puts a lot of work into. And make sure to download and follow Fantasy Baseball Today in Five. That is our five-minute podcast. It's basically a...

A quick summary, a SparkNotes version of this podcast. And yeah, you could find it wherever you listen to a podcast. Let's take our first break when we return. We'll talk about the News and Notes here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back in the News and Notes. Lucas Gialito will receive a second opinion on his injured elbow. Like we said yesterday, if Gialito is out, expect to see both Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Halk in the Red Sox rotation. They could still sign Jordan Montgomery.

Of course, though that has not happened yet. Nolan Jones left Wednesday's game with lower back tightness but expects to return to the lineup on Thursday. Ian Hap, who's been slowed by a left hamstring strain, took live BP on Wednesday. Hassan Kim will be out of the lineup until Friday after experiencing back spasms earlier in the week. Ray's manager, Kevin Cash, said that Josh Lowe

will be ready for full baseball activities in quote, probably another week if all goes well. It's kind of weird wording, you know, know, probably in a week, if all goes well. So there's just, you know, kind of weird stipulation set up there. Lowe is currently dealing with left hip inflammation. Speaking of the raise, apparently they're focused on being more aggressive on the base pass this season.

So that's what I mentioned earlier. Randy a Rosarana was a name specifically mentioned by Mark Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. And I think it was a little surprising with the new rules last year. You know, Randy or Roserina had basically been between 20 and 30 seals each season. I think the expectation was that he would probably get to at least 30 steals last year, and that didn't happen. So maybe he could do it here in 2024. Cedric Mullins is considered day to day after an MRI on his right hamstring came back negative.

Jonathan India is slated to make his Cactus League debut on Friday. He's been brought along slowly while recovering from plants are fasciitis on his left foot. I think one thing to really keep an eye on with Jonathan India is whether he plays in the outfield, because that was something that they, the Reds wanted him to do. during the offseason work on the outfield because of this plantar fasciitis injury that lingered from last season, it sounds like he didn't really get a lot of reps there. And if he's not able to play in the outfield, that just makes their infield situation even more crowded. So that's something I'm really going to be keeping an eye on. Spencer Steer played second base the other day, I believe.

So they're trying a lot of things out. Obviously, they haven't had Matt McLean yet. So that's something to keep an eye on, though. Robert Stevenson, who's been slowed with a sore pitching shoulder, will have time to get the appearances he needs to be ready for opening day, according to his manager, Ron Washington, which is good news for Scott's Tao Wars team. So let's go.

Let's see what happens with Robert Stevenson. It'll be even better news if Carlo Estevez loses his job. But, you know, I'm sure other people who have Carlos Estevez feel differently. Certainly, I do in TGFPI. So, sorry. Also me in labor. Yes. Nick Ladolo threw a two-inning simulated game on Wednesday and said his next step is pitching in a Cactus League game. He's been delayed because of that left tibia injury that he's been dealing with since last year.

I also saw a report that it looks unlikely that Lodolo will be ready for opening day, and if that's the case that Nick Martinez will be in the rotation along with Andrew Abbott. So those guys were kind of battling for the fifth rotation spot. If Lodolo's not ready, Nick Martinez is in. Alec Thomas retooled his swing over the offseason in an effort to create more balance and also separating in activating his hips, shoulders, and hands. What about knees and toes?

Offensively, things haven't worked for Alec Thomas yet, though he did hit four homers with two steals in 17 postseason games. I keep wanting every time I put together like a sleeper's list, I keep wanting to put Alec Thomas on and just can't justify it. But he's played 159 games between AA and AAA in his career. he's still only 23. And in those 159 games between AA and AAA,

25 homers, 20 stolen bases with like a batting average well north of 300. I still think there could be some post-type appeal there. I think so too, man. He's certainly fast enough. Yeah.

How do he only go 10-10 last year wherever it was close to it? I will, every time the Diamondbacks hitting prospect comes up, or pitching prospect for that matter, I feel the need to remind everyone that the Diamondbacks AA and especially AAA affiliate, very, very hitter-friendly. And so I don't know that we can take those numbers at face value.

Obviously, it wasn't such a big deal for Corby and Carroll, but I don't think anyone thinks Alec Thomas's Corbyn Carol. Pirates manager Derek Shelton confirmed that pitching prospect Jared Jones is among those competing for a spot in the rotation, and he is a name that needs to be on your radar. 100 miles per hour with his fastball, sometimes doesn't exactly know where it's going. He's obviously got to work on the control still,

but this is a pitcher who has big stuff. He's got to be able to throw it for strikes. He averaged like 99 with his fastball and his first spring outing in front of the stack has cameras. Yeah, he hit 101 multiple times, I think. So pretty crazy. And the National signed Eddie Rosario to a split contract where he can earn up to $4 million if he reaches all of his incentives.

now 32 years old, had a solid 2023, hit 255, 21 homers, 74 RBI, and a 755 OPS. I think this is probably just NL only, right? Eddie Rosario? Yeah, I don't think he's even going to be able to, well, hang on, I haven't taken a look at it. Can the nationals fit them in their lineup? I guess they can. Oh, they certainly can. It's the nationals. Well, but, you know, they have Lane Thomas and, and, and, you know, join Menaceus. I guess that's

joining Menesis is penciled in at DH. Yeah, I guess Eddie Rosario they can fit him in. Yeah, I think so. All right, let's talk about some notable spring training performances from Wednesday, and I teased this up at the top. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is human after all. He went three innings,

allowed six hits, five runs, three walks with four strikeouts. Obviously not hitting the panic button, but I'm sure they were all a bunch of crazy takes on Twitter, X, whatever we're calling it. there will be an adjustment period obviously coming over from Japan different baseball

pitching a little bit more frequently as well with that being said I did see this quote from White Sox outfieler Dominic Fletcher and I thought it was interesting obviously really good stuff the splitter is really really good the cutter is good and then the fastball is kind of the pitch to get

after if you are going to get after one it was fun it was good so I'm just wondering if maybe there's going to be an adjustment specifically with that fastball and if teams are, if hitters are just kind of seeking it out early, it might be a pitch that they could do damage against. So one worth noting in this one is,

um, at least a couple of the runs were bad defense. I think one was like a double that glanced off Max Muncie's glove. I think Gavin Lux gave up to, he gave up an infield single to like, Ilo Jimenez. No, who were they playing? It was the Mariners, right?

No, it was the white sucks. Okay. Yeah. He might have. it was someone who's not especially fast. So I think the left side of the infield defense did not help. And look, that is a legitimate thing with this Dodgers team that over the past couple of years, their defense has really taken a hit to the point where I don't think

it's bad, but I don't think the Dodgers have like a good defense at this point. That Dominic Fletcher quote, it's one of those where I'm not really sure how to read it because you could read it as, oh, he's saying Yoshinobu Yamamoto's fastball isn't that good. That's the one to get after. Or he could be saying it's so hopeless against those other pitches. True. I mean, generally speaking, every pitcher that fastball is the pitch that you look for and you go after. So I don't know.

Certainly the scouting reports made it sound like Yamamoto had an amazing fastball. I don't know. I don't have much of a reaction to the spring start. I know he said he was working on stuff. He was throwing his curveball a lot more. He's obviously not fighting for a job. So I'm trading it the way I'd treat a bad spring start for any proven veteran pitcher, even though I know Yamamoto isn't that in the majors.

I feel like he still deserves that same level of, he deserves that same benefit of the doubt. I agree completely. I have Yamamoto. I think we all do, ranked as a top 10 or at least top 12 starting pitcher, so I'm still in. L.A. Dela Cruz reached base three times

and had three steals. All right, doing L.E. Dela Cruz things. Edward Julian launched a three-run homer, and he looks locked in so far this spring. Eight for 19. That's a 421 batting average, two homers, one steal, a 1239 OPS.

And my guess is likely to lead off at least against right-handed pitching for the Minnesota Twins. Speaking of the Twins, Joe Ryan allowed one run, a homer, of course. Over three innings, his splitter was up five miles per hour compared to last year. The slider was up three miles per hour. He also threw a new sinker two times.

So, Chris, it's clear to me that Joe Ryan is searching for secondary pitches here. He's tinkering, he's trying to throw some stuff harder. This is part of, and we'll reveal this with going back over my bus 1.0. The problem for me with Joe Ryan is that he has a really good deceptive fastball. but I don't trust any of the secondary pitches and it seems like he's still kind of searching. Yeah, no, absolutely. I think on the one hand,

it's a good sign, right? Like, he's not content with where he was. He's not just chalking last year, second season, second half up to the groin injury. He's actively working on himself. And I think that's a good thing. We should all be working on ourselves actively. But yeah, he's certainly not a finished product.

And I've been talked into moving him down a little more because that's another one that, as you mentioned with, uh, who was it? The, the, the,

the, the, the, the, the, the, the, as you mentioned with Zach Allen when you're

drafting him like, you noticed every time you were drafting, you'd be like, I don't actually like him as much as this ranking. And you'd move him. So like that's, that's where I am on Joe Ryan as well. Mm-hmm.

Hazus Lazzardo got crushed and his velocity was down. So the fastball averaged 96. 96.2 miles per hour. in his last start on Friday and then it averaged 94.8 miles per hour here on Wednesday. Not panicking, but something to watch.

Tristan... He blamed the weather delay for what it's worth. Yeah, the weather was really bad there. I think the Marlins scratched their entire starting outfield right before the game because of how bad the weather was. I think the Mets game got rained out too, so not great weather in Florida. Tristan McKenzie made his spring debut. He threw two shutout innings with two strikeouts.

And according to Twitter, McKenzie was sitting 91 to 93 miles per hour with the fastball. He averaged 92.5 in his breakout 2022. Tosh Bradley threw three shutout innings with one strikeout, apparently through a new splitter and a new sinker. He used the splitter 11 times in this start, the sinker four times. Didn't get any whiffs on the splitter. But Scott, again, another pitcher here.

Trying to work on some new things, figure something out. Todge Bradley with a splitter and a sinker. Those seem to be the two. pitchers that, I'm sorry, the two pitches that pitchers who are looking to add a pitch are most inclined to add right now. It's very on trend. They're not all going to be able to throw splitters and sinkers well. And so, you know, unless you get, see one getting rave reviews or big whiff numbers, I don't know that it's worth, it's worth reflecting on that much just because you'll get lost in the endless number of pitchers who are adding a splitter especially.

But, you know, Todd Bradley needs to do something different than he did last year, obviously. So I don't take it as a bad sign. I think it starts with throwing strikes. And that's exactly what he did in this start. He didn't walk anyone. So I think that's a good sign there for Todge Bradley. Somebody who did not throw strikes, Joe Boyle. We got the full experience here on Wednesday.

three innings, zero hits, somehow allowed an earned run. How? Three walks in three innings, that's how. Three strikeouts. He did have zero walks in his first two spring starts combined. So kind of unraveled with the control a little bit here, but I think we still like Joe Boyle as a deeper sleeper. And this last, and I want to say for him,

because I've been the most optimistic on Boyle and his improved control. Again, he was over seven walks per nine in his minor league career. his stuff is so good that it's not like it's not like we need him to have like a Ryan Pepio level control breakthrough you know if he's walking almost four per nine he'll still he'll still probably deliver a good fantasy outcome

that probably is a little strong but he still could even with a walk rate that high it's it's just in it was absurdly high in the miners and that's why he never got a lot of prospect love yeah and the bar is not very high for the Oakland A's right As long as you have an arm, you could probably pitch for the Oakland A's. And while he's not going to win many games, it still is a good ballpark to pigeon. The A's Beat Rider took this start with the three walks and three innings as Joe Boyle just bolstered his case for making athletic for whatever that's worth. Yeah, that sounds about right.

And this last one, I think this is a good transition back into our bus 2.0 because Chris, I know he's someone that you have on the list. But Carlos Rodon, so for players like Carlos Rodon, I try and tell myself not to overreact to spring training. You also texted me. I did. I did. Three innings, three runs allowed, one walk, one strikeout, two homers allowed. His first pitch of the game, his last pitch of the game, they were both homers.

He gave up five hard hits, and he looked, how do I say this? Bad. Bad. He looked bad. He looked. He pitched really poorly. I watched his entire start. He was not commanding his pitches.

He had only five swinging strikes on 60 pitches. The velocity was down 1.5 to 2 miles per hour on all of his pitches. Apparently, that's where he normally is in spring. Okay, fine. I'll take them for their word, whatever. But for a player coming off, a year as bad as Rodon just had, Chris, I would like to see more positives in spring. And we haven't.

Yeah, and here's something that I think is potentially concerning. And I would love to see Nick Paul. or Lance Brostowski or one of these super smart pitching guys get into this. But my first thought when I saw Carlos Rodan was working on a cutter. And it's a pitch he's dabbled with in the past. But it was apparently something he really worked on this offseason was, what if it messes up either the four seamer or the slider? Because this is something that you'll see a lot with pitchers when they,

when they add a cutter. I think Chris Paddock's an example of this where he kind of inadvertently started cutting his fastball. and it wiped out a lot of the things that made Chris Paddock's fastball good. And Carlos Rodana, I worry has something similar going on. And again, I would love to see someone who knows a little more about this dive in because he, the movement profile for both the four seamer and the slider were different today than they were last season. His slider had about three inches less of horizontal break and his four seam fastball had three inches more. And so that tells me that what we might be seeing is both the slider and curveball or slider and fastball getting a little cutier, cutterier.

And that's probably not a good thing. Now, I'm not 100% sure. And it's just one start and I don't want to make too much of it. But that was my first thought when I saw that he was working on a cutter. And he just hasn't looked good so far this spring in his two official starts. There was the one batting practice session where he gave up a bunch of home runs to Yankees prospects as well. It just, yeah, I'm starting to get worried, less so because of the specific results of spring and more just that he doesn't look like the good version of Carlos Rodon yet. Scott, you and I both had Rodon in our sleepers 1.0.

Seeing just the way that things have played out so far and the velocity and the lack of whiffs and stuff, like does this make. you want to back off a little bit. I mean, he's still a sleeper. We all know what the upside is. Right. And there's a chance he could become more draftable because of this. If a gap opens up between where Chris Sale, one of the big risers this

spring and Carlos Rodon are being drafted, if a, you know, five-round gap opens up between them because of the way their springs have gone, then, you know, you can make the case. Rodon is a sleeper. I think back to Jose Burrios, last spring. He looked terrible every time he pitched. And I know there was some talk on this podcast

is Jose Berrios done. Because remember, he was coming off a terrible season. And he ended up having, he ended up having a bounce back season. He ended up having a typical Jose Barrio season. So, you know, I understand the concerns for Royodon are amplified because he is coming off that bad season. We really wanted some reassurance this spring. But he's still a veteran pitcher going through spring training. You know, he doesn't have to put his best out there to keep his job or anything. We know he's working on the cutter. He could be working on a lot of stuff. And it may be that everything turns out fine for him still.

So I'm not going to be as motivated to draft him at cost. But if his cost slips, then, you know, definitely I'd still consider him a sleeper. And to that point about him working on things, 73% of his pitches were four seamers or sliders. Typically, that's like 95%. So he was working in more curveballs, more cutters, more changeups. You know, we'll see. Let's take our final break when we return all of the busts here on fantasy baseball today.

Welcome back in. Let's do a quick run through of bust 1.0 for those who might have missed them before we get into bus 2.0. Chris, I'll let you start today with bust 1.0. Maybe just run through the names in like 10 or 15 seconds on each player. Do I need to talk about players who I no longer have as busts? No, but you can maybe highlight why they aren't busts anymore. I've removed Yader Diaz from my list. My concerns were sample size and plate discipline.

He's just not that expensive, so I'm really not that concerned about it. I think he's the only one I've really removed. Michael King, I'm not as worried about. And Blake Snell's price is reasonable enough that I don't know if he belongs in there anymore. but Cody Bellinger, we've talked so much about Cody Ballinger over the past 10 months or so and why I'm not a believer. Quality of contact is not that good. I don't buy the two strike approach thing because his quality of contact before there were two strikes also wasn't that good.

So I just I don't necessarily believe that that's a good explanation. Hang on. So this number I'm getting this from MLB.com. I don't know how they looked it up, but I trust it's accurate information. When Bellinger was ahead in the count last year, his average exit velocity was 90.3 miles per hour. Major League average for ahead in the count is 90.5 miles per hours. It was basically right there. And then his exit velocities dropped much below MLB average when he was behind in the counter, especially if he had two strikes.

And we know his strikeout rate was very low. We know he hit for a good batting average. It just seemed like he sold out for contact when he was behind in the count. And obviously that would bring down his overall average. If his average exit velocity was near 90 miles per hour like it was when he was ahead in the count, I don't think concerns about his exit velocity would even be raised. What it? I have him as a bus too.

I'm just saying there may be something to that. It's possible. the data that I found, I'm trying to find the exact numbers because I did do a little bit of a deep dive into all of those specific things. And the thing that I found was he overperformed his expected stats with two strikes and without in a way that I still like, I don't know. What's the thought process behind why he overperformed with two strikes? just that he made more contact. Right, right, no. I get that he made,

but like that would be, presumably that would be captured in the quality of contact metrics. So he made more contact, but he made bad contact. And so you would expect, okay, fine, he made more contact. Maybe that'll help his batting average.

But it's still like you would also expect the bad contact that he made to lead to worse results. It might have been good spray angles. though, right? For getting singles. I know, yeah, I know part of the thing, how did he hit so many home runs

when he doesn't pull the ball that much? You know, because that's normally how a power hitter, a power hit the ball particularly hard overcomes that as he pulls the ball in the air well. And Bellinger, it doesn't look like he did. But maybe a lot of that's just, okay, he optimized his spray angle for singles too, and that's dragging down the overall average.

I don't know. It's a weird one to figure out, obviously. and the fact that he didn't get the free agent contract he was looking for, teams were skeptical too. But like I said, it's hard to find an outfielder with that kind of upside and without any concerns at the stage where Bellinger tends to go, at least in expert leagues. So I'm not saying he doesn't have a bus potential.

I have him on my bus list, but we've come a little further since Bust 1.0. understanding why it may work. So, yeah, the metrics that I found, he had 279 in two strike counts, but that was with a 224XBA. Maybe the spray angle is the reason for that. I'll grant that. He also performed, overperformed both when he was ahead in the count and behind in the count. And so I think the two strike thing, okay, maybe that explains part of it.

but I still think the overall line was inflated. And maybe he can still be a 22 homer, 18 stolen base guy who hits 270, and that can still be pretty bad. Yeah, would that be a bust in round five? I don't think it would. I don't know. I just, I don't know how we can say he's a safe. Like, no, he's not safe.

That's certainly not the floor, right? We've seen Cody Bellinger be one of the, of the worst hitters in baseball over a two-year span. And so that's where I don't think the ceilings as high as it looked like last year. And the floor is I still think incredibly low. And so I put it all together. And like I don't, it's not like I have him like a hundredth in my rankings. So I'm with you that like there's a point in the draft where,

sure, Cody Ballinger. But assuming Nolan Jones back injury, is okay. I'd rather have Nolan Jones. I think there's much more upset if I'm going to shoot for that in the fifth or six round. Yeah. Do you want to list off the rest of those real quick, Chris? Or we'll just keep it moving. Whatever you want. Yeah. Matt McLean, Ellie Dela Cruz, Huss Young Kim, Lane Thomas, Josh Lowe. I feel better about my Josh Lowe bus pick now that he's injured, unfortunately. George Kirby, Tyler Glass now, Blake Snell, Michael King, and Emmanuel Class A, just because I forced myself to pick a reliever. And there was a significant drop in his

skill set last year, but I think he's probably fine. Scott, over to you. A quick rundown of Buss 1.0. Okay, Bellinger's in there for all the reasons. We talked about Paul Goldschmidt. I think he showed signs of his age finally last year, 36 years old, his second half numbers. Worse and not just the surface level numbers, but he, you know, the strikeout rate got a lot worse, and especially for the year, his numbers against fastballs. just way worse and that's I think a pretty clear

indicator of age for Goldschmidt Blake Snell I have as a bust candidate he's had a hard time getting the contract he's looking for five walks per nine last year

I just think his year could go the way Dylan Ceases went last year and of course we've seen disappointing years from Snell in the past Hassan Kim

I just think he delivered the best possible outcome he's capable of in every measure last year. And so any slippage in terms of power, which he doesn't hit the ball that hard at all, is he going to steal 38 bases again?

I think it's much more likely that he drops off than that he gains in any of those areas. Joe Ryan, yeah, I think the jig is up. I don't think his fastball with the rising effect is having as much success anymore. 662 ERA over his final four starts last year, 3.2 home runs per 9 during that stretch. And that's a strikeout guy

that I'm not looking to draft at all because I think the downside risk is so much. Spencer Steer, sort of like Hassan Kim, where I feel like he maxed out, he rang absolutely as much as he possibly could out of the skill set he has. And then in Spencer Steer's case on top of it,

major playing time concerns because of all the hitters the reds are breaking in they already had to move them to the outfield but they're full there uh sunny gray just so many ups and downs in his career so much injury risk josh young uh over the final 70 games he hit 244 with 11 homers and a 712 ops i think he was overperforming early if you look at the exit velocity that the max exit velocity and the strikeout rate strikeout rates those don't really make for an elite hitter that combination Lane Thomas

dropped off a lot in the second half Estuary Ruiz I just think you know by the end of the year he wasn't even playing every day for the athletics that's how bad of a hitter he was there are signs that he's improved his exit velocity of the spring so I'm keeping an eye on that a little more open to drafting him than I was at 1.0

But I still think, I still think people are going a little too hard after that steals potential. And finally, Isak Peretti's, kind of like Joe Ryan, he has a gimmick where he's one of the most extreme hitters in terms of pulling the ball in the air well.

Stack has pages, icicles, does not hit the ball hard at all. And so any slippage there, there's no other skill for him to fall back on. And the rays have a lot of young hitters. they're trying to break in at the positions Perretta's plays. So any slippage could also cost him his job pretty early. Scott, can I ask for that Josh Young stat you cited again?

Final 70 games for Josh Young. He hit 244 with 11 homers and a 712 OPS. Okay. Final 70 games. I'm just trying to tease out the remove the part where he came back from the fractured thumb. So his final 60 games before the fractured thumbs, that includes this stretch. 267 on a 30 homer,

178 run plus RBI pace. That's basically what I expect from him. And then he hit really well in the postseason too. Yeah. Yeah. Quickly run through my bus 1.0. Ellie Daler Cruz, this was back when we only had NFBC ADP, by the way.

He is a top 24 pick still over at the NFBC. His overall ADP is 37.8. which I think is more appropriate. I still have L.E.A. La Cruz outside of my top 40, but I get it. Alexis Diaz, he had an 838 ERA in September, though it feels like the Reds were overusing him. Really bad control.

The fastball dropped one mile per hour compared to 2022. Anthony Volpe, one of 19 hitters to go 2020, but that came with a 209 batting average and a 666 OPS could improve in his second season, but I don't see a big difference between him and Trevor Story, who's going 80 picks later right now. T.J. Friedel, really bad quality of contact, lots of infield fly balls. I think he takes a step back.

Again, the Reds have lots of depth on that team. CJ Abrams just kind of feels overvalued to me as a top 45 pick, really, really bad against lefties, which brings down the overall numbers. Aranola, a 446 ERA or higher two of the past three years. Things just have a way of snowballing out of control against Aranola, so just don't want to pay a top 12 or top 15 SP price for. for him. Joe Ryan, we talked about Mitch Keller. Scott is glass half full on Mitch Keller. I am

glass half empty. So really bad swinging strike rate, 9.7%. He is prone to those huge blowup starts, which we saw in the second half. Royce Lewis, this is solely injury related. I think he's incredibly talented. I don't want to pay a top 60 price for a player that we have not seen over a full season yet. Shane Bieber, I know he's worked with driveline baseball this offseason. He's throwing harder, which raises the ceiling. I will acknowledge that. I still think he's a massive injury risk. Last year went on the 60 day IL with a forearm strain and throwing harder probably doesn't help

his chances of staying healthy so I'm out. I'm out on Shane Bieber. Let's do breakouts 2.0 and just cycle through. Busts. What did I say? Breakouts? Well, yeah. That's because I have- These are not breakouts, Frank. These are busts. I have breakouts written on the rundown. Why did I do that? I changed it for you. We're good

now. Thank you. Bus 2.0. Here we are. We'll cycle through and Scott kick us off with an addition outside of Tyler Glassdown. already talked about. Yeah, Cedric Mullins is another one for me. I kind of feel like the Orioles have just kind of outgrown him

because he was a player who he got his job back when they were a bottom of the division team and just needed to fill out their roster and then he happened to have that 30-30 season and really solidified his spot in the lineup

but they have so many young hitters still that they're trying to find spots for and And Cedric Mullins, you know, after that 30-Homer 30-30-stil season, two consecutive years with a 721 OPS, not good. Last year, they moved him down in the lineup out of the leadoff spot more toward the lower end of the lineup. And he only started 39 of their final 47 games, did Cedric Mullins. He is a good defender at a premium position, but so was Horace. Jorge Mateo, and the Orioles have clearly outgrown Jorge Mateo.

So I worry the same thing could happen with Cedric Mullins this year, particularly with Colton Couser showing signs of maybe being ready to take the next step. It's not going to happen on opening day in all likelihood, but at some point early in the year, particularly if Mullins gets hurt, might he be able to get that job back? I'm not confident in that. Do you put anything into this, Scott? So he dealt with a,

Cedric Mullins, dealt with a groin injury last year that basically derailed the season and it popped up multiple times. His first 53 games before he got hurt, he was betting 263 with eight homers, 13 steals, an 835 OPS,

and a 12.5% walk rate. That was before he got hurt. Any credence to those numbers? Well, like I said, he also had a 721 OPS in 2022. That's fair. But what if he never got hurt? We'll never know.

we'll never know but I think he's closer to being a I don't I don't think we're ever going to see an 800 plus OPS from Mullins again over a full season that is my prediction Chris back to you

bus 2.0 We'll start you want multiple ones we'll start with Adley Rutchman who whatever you want I want to say Scott made this point in the catcher preview perhaps but it was basically

just that it feels like Adley Rutchman is just being drafted where the top catcher is supposed to go. Like J.T. Routo was a third round pick for so long that now it's Adley Ruchman's the top catcher. We'll just slot him in to like the end

of the third round. And I'm just not sure he's there. He's a great hitter and he's going to get a ton of playing time, 687 played appearances last year. I would guess that comes down a little bit this year. But either way, he's going to play a ton for a catcher. The problem is he's a very, very good hitter, but he's not necessarily a great fantasy

hitter. He walked 92 times last season. That's phenomenal. That's great for your head-to-head points leagues, but doesn't really help you out in a Roto league, except for, I guess, the opportunity to score more runs. He scored 84 last season. He drove in 80. Those are good numbers for a catcher. They're not necessarily difference-making numbers, even at the catcher position. He hit 20 home runs last season. again, good for a catcher not necessarily difference me. It's like he's like a B everywhere as like a normal fantasy player and then is being treated as if he's kind of an A minus everywhere because he's a catcher. And that might be worthwhile, right?

Like positional scarcity is still a thing. Finding a catcher who doesn't hurt you anywhere is actually really, really difficult. Most of the catchers who hit 20 home runs are going to hit 240 or worse. Most of the catchers who hit 280 are going to hit 8 home runs. runs. It's really hard to find catchers who don't hurt you anywhere. And maybe that's just the case for Adley Ruchman. It's just he's so solid across the board with the exception of stolen bases that it just it doesn't necessarily matter that he's not a difference maker. But it's just, this is definitely one where I think there's zero bottom out potential. Well, not zero. He's a catcher. He could get hurt.

He'll almost certainly be the top catcher. I mean, William Contreras technically was last year. Yeah, Ali Ruchman will almost certainly be a top five. catcher on a per game basis. I don't know how many players you can say are almost guaranteed to be top five at their position on a per game basis. I think Adley Rocherman has won them. It's just an inefficient use of a third. I just, yeah, I think it's too expensive of a price to pay.

And that is his fantasy pros, ADP. So this isn't even one where we can look at, you know, like L.A. Dela Cruz and say, well, he's 22nd at NFBC, but everywhere else, his price is fine. either Rutchman was the top 45, 48 pick at all five of the ADP sites on fantasy pros. I just, I don't think I can justify a fourth round pick on him. And you mentioned his better format is a head-to-pointe league. Those are typically one-catcher leagues too. So there is an opportunity cost to using a fourth-round pick on a catcher.

When, as Scott has pointed out, you can wait until the last round of a head-ed points league, and you can still get a pretty damn good starting player. So anyone catcher league. Yeah. Not just good to have points. That's what's tough about taking Adley Ruchman, which is tough to say because he's an awesome player, but it's just there is an opportunity cost there.

For me, I'm going to go with Luis Robert. The ADP is 37.8. He's the 11th outfielder off the board. Finally stayed healthy last year, and he broke out. Hit 264, 38 homers, 20 steals. There are concerns. Really, really bad plate discipline. It hasn't affected him yet.

I do think it puts a cap on his batting average. He hit 38 home runs. He did that with only 170 runs plus RBI because the White Sox are really bad and they're probably going to be really bad again this year. Lastly, will he stay healthy? Last year was the first time he exceeded 100 games played in the majors. He also ended the season with a sprain MCL in his left knee.

And Chris, you made this point. If that MCL sprain happened in the middle of the season, are we valuing Luke's probably? Yeah, he probably misses four weeks at least. Right. Like are we valuing him differently this year? Absolutely. Yeah, 100%. That is, Luis Robert is definitely getting less of the, I can't draft him because he doesn't stay healthy stuff

because of the fluky timing of the injury. And that's kind of part of my hobby horse about how we're very collectively unscientific about how we think about injuries and these things can impact our perceptions. I will say, I can see it. the Luis Robert bus case for sure. I also think there's a decent chance

he's just like a first rounder next year. Oh, it's possible. Like there's a decent chance he just does it again. He hits 35 home runs and steals 20 bases again. And then we're talking about him like a top 20 pick this time next year. Definitely possible. And I understand, for the most part, I understand why people take him where they do.

I mean, being able to find a guy that can go 40, 20, there's not many players that can do that. I understand that. I just, I think that there are pretty significant downside risks for a player going in the third round. But this is kind of like a range of outcomes, right? He could be a first rounder. He could play 80 games or, you know, he could play, he could play a full complement of games and just take a step back. Like, I think that's entirely possible too.

So just, I think there's a big range of outcomes with Luis Robert. Scott, we'll go back to you and another bus 2.0. All right, I got to do this with Matt McLean. I understand why he's the fifth. second baseman drafted on average 3.41 head-to-head points per game. That was the fifth most at the position. But he outperformed his expected batting average by 34 points. He outperformed his expected slug by 71 points.

He outperformed his expected Wobah by 38 points. Stack has made Matt McLean out to be a much more ordinary hitter than the actual numbers were. And on top of that, 28.5% strikeout rate for the year, that's 16th percentile. It climbed to 29.7% from July 1st on. Normally, hitters who succeed with a 30% strikeout rate are ones who deliver like these premium 95th percentile exit velocities.

Matt McLean clearly isn't that. So we're kind of asking him to, he was kind of a unicorn last year and we're kind of asking him to be that again by drafting him that high. And then on top of that, of course, you have the first. fact he hasn't played in the spring game yet because of an oblique injury, the same oblique that ended his rookie season early. So what's going on there? The Reds, as we've talked about, have too many cooks in the kitchen, particularly on the infield. And that leaves less margin for error for somebody like McLean. And there's just a lot of potential for error there between the

injury and the overachievement. I do think the upside is considerable. That's true for most of these bus picks. But the fact that McLean is going three to five rounds ahead of Catele-Marty, Bryson Stott, Andres Jimenez, and especially Zach Gelloff, who I think has a similar statistical profile, I'm never drafting Matt McLean. The other thing about Matt McLean, you know, because you could look at like T.J. Friedel, right, who is a much more, much more extreme poor stat-ass guy than Matt McLean, but he pulls the ball a ton in the air. Matt McLean hit the ball to all fields last year. And so he doesn't even have that, well, he doesn't hit the ball super hard, but he maximizes his, the balls that he does

hit because he hits them to the pole site. Like, he doesn't have that. He was he was also 83rd percentile in in zone contact, or sorry, 83% in zone contact rate. That was 28th percentile. So pretty poor. 27th percentile max exit velo, 50th percentile average. So I, I, I, I, I, It just, I feel like he might just be what, like, he might just be like a 1520 guy, which is valuable, but with a 250, 260 average, it's not a fifth round pick. Like, Zander Bogartz has a very similar projection and is going, what, three rounds behind him. One thing about Matt McLean, too, is that we're not even getting that big of an injury discount either. I thought he would have dropped further. His overall ADP on fantasy pros is 68.2. Over the past, past week at the NFBC, it's 73.2. So, and I'm even looking at his ADP through January, right?

So early offseason drafts, his ADP was 60, Matt McLean. It's 73.2. So he's dropped a round, one round, and he has the same oblique injury as last year. So I thought he would have dropped further than this, to be honest. Chris, let's go over to you. Talk to me about these two speedy, I guess, middle infielers, although Tommy Edmund plays the outfield too. Anthony Volpey and Tommy Edmund. Yeah, so Tommy Edmund, a lot of it just, comes down to this wrist injury. He's coming back from surgery that he had in October. And from what I could tell, I was doing some research today. It doesn't sound like he's been doing in or outfield drills, which is weird for a guy who's going to be presumably the starting

center fielder for the red for the cardinals when he's healthy. He's mostly been doing infield drills. He has not been able to swing right handed. Uh, yet. He hasn't faced live pitching yet. It just, this is a really late start to the season. even if Edmund is cleared in the next week or so. He doesn't have exactly the kind of bat where you can say, yeah, if he loses a little bit, he's still good. He's probably a pretty fringe bat if he isn't as good as he's been the last few years. And then is he a reliable source of steals given the injury?

I don't know if we can necessarily bet on that. I know he's been very consistent in the last couple years, but there's been some up and down over his career. or in terms of the stolen basis. So it just, I don't know, man. It just, it feels like a situation where his, his season just never. It's off the ground.

And then, Anthony Volpe is the other one that you were referring to, right? Yes. 142.8 ADP, that's not great. I just, I don't know if this guy's that good. At least not yet. He's still young. I don't want to write him off. But this was something we talked about last spring when he was

coming up. We were talking about everybody's really excited for Anthony Volpe power. You know, you looked at the batting average in AAA and it was like, yeah, but that was a really low babb it. But he had a lot of infield fly balls. And what we saw last season was pretty middling raw power for Anthony Volpe, worse than middling in-game power. And he really had to maximize his pull swing to get that. And that led to a lot of infield fly balls. It led to a really poor batting average. It led to 20 homers, but it was a pretty cheap 20 homers,

and he wasn't running as much as we thought he would. Remember, he stole 50 bases in the minors in 2020. He stole, what, 21 last year in the major? He was on base so rarely. Yeah, so I just, I don't know if there's much difference-making potential for Anthony Volpe,

at least based on the skill set that he showed last year. He needs to improve a lot. Now, if he gets 20-20 again, he'll probably be worth this. buy whatever rating system you want to use, but fitting a 209 batting average into your lineup is really, really hard if it's not coming with legitimate difference making production elsewhere. I'm hopeful that Volpe takes a step forward in year two,

because it's very common. If you assess a lot of underachieving rookies, you're not going to like much of the underlying data. But I don't, so many smart people are drafting them so much higher than I think is rational given, you know, 30, 30 spots ahead of Thiro Estrada is Anthony Volpe's ADP. I mean, he's going well ahead of Jackson Holiday, who I think is a better,

I understand he's a rookie and a very young rookie, but I think he's a better bet for good numbers than Volpe is, based on what we saw from Volpe as a rookie. It's just, it's not like Volpe's going in the first 10 rounds, but I'm surprised he's going in the first 15 rounds, you know? Yeah, I think part of it is probably the Yankee tax, but also the fact that people were so excited about Anthony Volpe last year, so probably don't want to give up on him.

One main concern that I had watching him last season was that he had a big uppercut in his swing, and you talked about this Chris with the fly balls and the infield fly balls. He doesn't have huge raw power, so he kind of has to cheat to get to that 20 home run power. But I recently read that he's coming to camp with a flatter swing now, and he's looking to hit more line drives, And that's exactly what I said I wanted to see from him, I guess as a fan of the Yankees. But I think what can happen here is he trades off some power. Maybe he hits 15 home runs, but hits 250.

And if he's on baseball, maybe he steals more. He could be anybody. He could be Thiro Estrada. Right. Or, you know, I think he can have realistically an Andres Jimenez type impact. I think that's possible for Anthony Volpe. But again, it's just like. 80 spots ahead of Trevor Story.

and Carlos Correa. I agree with you guys completely because Trevor Story was the name I brought up before because you guys know all me. He was also one of the worst hitters in baseball against both breaking and off speed pitches. He had a sub 250 expected Wobah against both. Yeah.

It was there are some significant flaws in his game that he's got to clear up to be a viable source of batting average, especially. I'm going to put my next two together because they are both very roster construction related, right? So Luis Arise, the ADP is 12-second baseman off the board,

and he has a skill nobody else has. He hit 354 last year, 17 points higher than Ronald de Cunia. But that's it. According to the Razball Player Rader, a rise earned $13.9 worth of value in a 12-team Categories League last year. $14.4 of that came from batting average. His other four categories, his other four categories. His other four categories combined for negative value.

Think about that. So look, there's a build where it makes sense. Maybe if you take L.A. Dela Cruz early, Kyle Swarber, I mean, God forbid, you take both of those guys together. You probably need Luis Arise on your team. So there's a build where it makes sense. That's just typically not how I build my teams. And you might think that a rise is an elite player

in a head-to-head points league. But on CBS, he averaged three fantasy points per game, which was tied for 13th at the position. He needed to hit 354. to finish 13th on a per game basis. It's so weird that he only had 140 combined runs in RBI. He scored 88 runs the year before with an OPP that was 18 points lower. Now, obviously, the Marlins are a pretty bad lineup.

They're likely to be worse this year without Jorge Saler. So I get it. It's just weird that those numbers were so bad. And they could get better. Like, if he's leading off in the Marlins lineup, it's just somehow better. Not that they've done much to, upgrade, I guess, in the all season.

And hey. Burger has the kind of year we think you can. And hey, Luis Arias, I'm mostly saying as this as a joke, but I think there is something maybe there. He had five home runs in September. There were signs of an approach change.

And he did hit his hardest ball ever today in a spring game, 110 miles per hour, I think. It traveled five feet. So I don't actually think you should take much from it. But I do think there's a world in which Luis Arias trades a little bit of contact to be just a little bit more productive overall. He's not going to hit 350 again anyway.

But yeah, I agree with this. I have trouble finding a lot of spots for him in my builds. The next one is Estuary Ruiz. 133.6 is the ADP, the 31st outfielder off the board. He's kind of the stolen base. version of a rise. Think about this, Chris. Ruiz earned $11.3 last year, 20.3 in stolen bases. So his other four categories were negative $9. This is crazy. 67 steals is awesome. There's no doubt. He was second behind only Ronald de Cunia. Five homers, 94 runs plus RBI. Really, really tough

to recover from with Estuary Ruiz. There was an article on MLB.com projecting the A's opening day roster. And it said each of Ruiz, Lawrence Butler and JJ Bladay are expected to see time in left and center field. That's two spots for three players. Those other two hitters are left-handed bats. I'm not saying Ruiz is just going to start the year as a short side platoon bat, but if he doesn't hit, I think there's a chance that that happens. This is absolutely a bottom-could-fall-out player.

Yes, absolutely. All right, guys, we're kind of up against it here. So if you just want to run through the rest of the names real quick. I only have two. one is Salvador Perez, 34 years old. He played 90 games at catcher last year, which was the fewest excluding 2020 since he first became a full-time catcher.

So they're phasing him out from catching, and he's a terrible pitch framer, so it makes sense. And Freddie Furman emerged as a viable, sorry, Freddie Fermin, emerged as a viable alternative for the Royals last year. Vinnie Pasquantino is healthy again, so first base isn't an option for Salvador Perez. we think Nelson Velazquez is going to play a lot.

It would mostly have to come at DH. So is Salvador Perez, is he losing that playing time advantage he used to have? You know, he's never been a good on-base guy, so I don't know that he's necessarily even the Royal's best choice at DH on days when he's not catching. I think we could see his production drop off the most, more than people are expecting, Salvador Perez. And then the other one is Michael King. Somebody has to make the downside case for Michael King

because I feel like people are just ignoring it. And I don't think his cost is such that we can ignore the downside case. He's not like going in the last couple rounds. He's going in a place that demands he be an important part of your pitching staff. Well, so yes, he did have a good eight-star trial with the Yankees last year, 188 ERA, 11.3K per 9. Only two of those eight starts were, what we would consider typical starter length, six, seven innings.

The swinging strike rate was very low. Even as he had 11.3K per 9, the swinging strike rate was actually worse than the K per 9 rate. I understand those are structured a little differently, but you get what I'm saying. It was below 11%. On top of that, Michael King is one of those pitchers who I have a hard time seeing giving anything close to a typical starting pitcher workload, because he couldn't hold together as a reliever. He had a stress fracture in his elbow.

He had one of those injuries where the bones of his body could not hold up to the torque he was generating, which we see more and more from pitchers as they get to throwing harder and harder. I'm just not sure he's physically capable. There's good reason to believe he's not physically capable of taking on a true starter's workload. In addition to it being less than a sure thing,

he's going to dominate with the workload he does get. So I'm not saying there isn't an upside case for Michael King, but I find that the downside case is enough to keep me away. It is going great. Chris, I haven't heard your downside case for Freddie Peralta, so I'm a little interested to hear this one. What do you have? I mean, talk about a guy who probably can't handle a full-time starters workload.

Freddie Peralta has been a starting pitcher at the major league level for the past three seasons. He has averaged 5.3. and 5.5 innings pitched per start at the height of his powers. That's when things are going well when he's running really low babbips because he's a pretty good quality of context oppressor. When his control is fine, he still tends to max out at six innings per star and doesn't get there all that often.

So I think that's where you start because I think we look at Freddie Peralta as like this high upside pitcher. And if the ceiling is like 170 innings, I don't know how high the upside can actually be. You're going to get a lot of strikeouts, 210 and 165 innings last season. It's worth noting. He got 195 and 144 innings. I think projecting sub 200 probably makes sense for Freddie Peralta.

He hasn't exactly been a consistent ERA standout. He was really good three years ago, but then 358, 386 the past two seasons. And he was really, really bad for more than. than half of last season. You remember pre-all-Star break 470 ERA 1-1301 whip in 92 innings 17 starts. Excellent after the All-Star break, 281 over 73 innings, 13 starts. That comes out to still about five and a half innings per start, even when things were going really well for Freddie Peralta.

And he's SP 18. There is no discount on Freddie Peralta, despite having some significant red flags. including I believe a four arm or a shoulder injury in 2022, if I'm remembering correctly. That sounds right. Yep. I just, you talk about a guy who, for whom things can go wrong. I think there's a lot of ways for things for Freddie Peralta to go wrong. And you really got to thread that needle for him to live up to this price. So I just, I get the ceiling argument for him.

I'm not sure the ceiling is dramatically higher for him than it is for, Grayson Rodriguez or Bobby Miller or even Yuri Perez who has the inning's concerns because Freddie Peralta hasn't shown that he can be a source of innings. So I'd prefer to draft him in the range of those guys. I don't dislike Peralta necessarily, but I just I think the price is too high for a guy who has not shown the ability to give us the workload we're looking for. It is a history of right shoulder injuries for Peralta back in 2019, happened in

2021. There was a strained lat in 2022 and then ended the season with right shoulder fatigue slash inflammation in September of 2022. Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, Peralta, I think we might be just blinded by how well he ended the season. There are significant downside risks. I also think he has massive upside, but maybe like a Tyler Glass now, but just the upside is not as high. And they're not really going that far apart, I guess, in ADP either. Lastly, for me, I do want to mention, look, you can make the bus case for any reliever, I think, but Tanner Scott in particular, I mentioned the

other day, like, what's been going on with him in spring training? Well, he made another outing here on Wednesday. It didn't exactly go according to plan. He's made three appearances this spring. He's recorded three outs. He's allowed eight earned runs with five walks. Forty-eight percent

of his pitches for strikes. Last year, 68% of his pitches for strikes. From 2017 through 2022, Tanner Scott allowed 5.8 walks per nine with a 14.2% walk rate. Last year, 2.8 walks per nine, 7.8% walk rate. I just think that there is going to be huge regression here. And again, I think wide range of outcomes for a lot of relievers, I think Tanner Scott might have the widest. Because I could see him being a top three closer in baseball. I can see him out of a job by May 1st. So I just worry a lot

about him. He's not going that high. The ADP is 136. So it's not entirely. prohibitive, but I think the floor is especially low for someone like Tanner Scott. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am thanks to thanks as always. I am, did I say I am. Who are you, Frank? I am Frank. Okay. It's been a long. I am Groot. I am Groot. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify and we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.