Fantasy Baseball Today - Busts! And Auctions! (03/06 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 6, 2020

Much of the show will be dedicated to the busts. What is a bust? Someone who underperforms his ADP or someone who completely stinks and shouldn't be rostered? Well, we'll give you a few of both categories. Fernando Tatis Jr., Madison Bumgarner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Stephen Strasburg, Danny Santana, Josh Hader, Gleyber Torres and many more are mentioned and debated. We don't agree on all of them! ... Some quick news items (42:04) including a name to know in the BAL bullpen. And we discuss the young DET SPs who could make an impact this season ... Let's talk auctions (44:00)! How to nominate, how to budget, how to prepare, why it's important to be patient, when to take a "Studs and Duds" approach and more advice we can give from years of doing auctions ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite Join our March Madness Bracket Challenge at http://2020podcast.mayhem.cbssports.com/e/d7feed30238637cc2387331ab3061dc1fb5219555f0e9a8b?ttag=BPM20_cpy_invite_new Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo, Santana, who I want to add you to my roster in roto, replacing Gio Soto, Gio Lido and Brito, baby, where my Fabco? Near the Florida key, there's a place in, that's where you want to be, to get ahead of your lead at sea, he'll help in points or all, because he's under, 30 because he's an agist On the pop, Jack to It's scare you

Machado For long day of fantasy baseball begins for us right now. It is 9.15 in the morning on Friday, March 6th, happy Friday.

Happy Kokomo Friday. Scott and Chris. Hey, Kokomo. That's where I want to go. Yes, sir. Chris is here, too. My favorite version of

Kokomo, no offense to the amazing Doc Krotts, lovely man, who I met once, the Muppets version, right? We all remember the Muppets version of Kokomo. Not a clue. We don't.

No, no. You guys, familiar. You guys haven't lived, my friends. Not really a Muppets guy. You and he. Well, no, I don't dislike them. He can agree on.

Unbelievable. He needs to start a thread for that. No, no. The people that they will just let on this podcast without screening. It's not. wrong with you that you don't like the muppets i didn't say that you're not listening it's not that i don't like them i don't really know the muppets i'm looking forward to learning more about the muppets as the as my child gets older i just i don't remember i for whatever reason like all i remember is like

ninja turtles inspector gadget i by the way i watched a new episode of inspector gadget uh the other night i dude it's not what it used to be okay anyway let's you let's a new inspector gadget are you watched an old episode of Inspector Gadgett. No, like, when we were growing up, Inspector Gadgett was like a crude cartoon that looked like it was from the 90s. Now it's like all 2020, and it's just... So there's a new one.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know there was a new one. Okay, so they remade Inspector Gadgett. Oh, yeah, sure. Just go watch the video for Keep Fishing by Weezer. It's got the Muppets, Animal plays drums. It's a delight. Okay, okay. Let's get baseball going here. Busts and auction stuff today. I've got some auction tips that I'm going to do for the first time.

It always seems to screw me when I'm drafting, and I forget about players. You know, you don't like necessarily cue players up. It's just a different experience. And there are guys that get nominated, and I'm like, oh, I wish I still had money for that player. Oh, man, I wish I didn't fill that position. So preparation is so important with auctions. So we're going to help you out in a little bit. Let's start with busts, though.

Scott, the biggest bust of 2020 will be. I am probably most concerned about, I don't know if this is biggest, but Madison Baumgartner is somebody I'm concerned about. Should we define bust too? Because I think it's... Yeah, here's what I think people hear when they hear the term bust. Oh man, that guy's going to stink. I better not draft him.

like a total bottoming out he's going to be useless for you scenario and so when I put together my bust list because I also have an an overrated ADP list I actually tried to make it that guys with true bottoming out potential

historically that's not how my bus list has worked it has included guys who are going just bet for an inefficient cost and so we may have some of those nominees as well but I think people usually think of a bottoming out when they hear the term bust,

and so somebody like Madison Bumgarder is a player who I fear has true bottoming out potential. Yeah, just not good on the road when he was with the Giants. Yeah, the splits were horrible the past two years, even though those overall numbers were decent. It was like, I mean, last year it was like a 150 ERA at home, and then of course just disastrous on the road. I'm not sure how that's going to go.

I think it could go very poorly for him. Obviously, his stuff hasn't been the same since his dirt bike accident early in 2017. And he's really benefited from having the best pitcher venue for half his games. And now he won't have that. So he could have an ERA on the wrong side of 450, I think, conceivably. And if that's the case, he's probably going to be fairly useless. Or it could be fine. I mean, it's more likely than not, he'll be fine.

More likely than not, probably all of these guys will be fine. But it's just, is it a risk worth taking at the point where they're going? I would say no. All right, Chris, big bust. Not you. I think, yeah, I am. I think the most likely player, among the elite players to bust out is probably Fernando Tatis Jr.

not Fernando Tatis Sr. He's safe. I just, you look at, like, you don't want to bet against the 21-year-old who dominated in the minors as a very young player who was an elite prospect,

who came up to the majors and performed really, really well. But he's a guy who, when you look at the underlying numbers, it just doesn't seem to back up what he did last season. And then it's very different from Kestin Hira, who we talked about yesterday, where, you know, Kest and Hira had really an elite batted ball profile, which made up for the limited strikeout percentage. Fernando Tatees had an okay batted ball profile, 61st percent in exit velocity, 80th percent in hard hit rate, you know, 68th percent in ex-Waba.

That's all fine, but it's certainly not what he did. last year. And if you're drafting him with the expectation that he's going to help you in batting average in particular, you could be in for a pretty rude awakening. And what if he stops running? Because over the final six weeks or so last year, which was after he returned from the hamstring, because he missed some time with a couple injuries, one of them was the hamstring. When he first came back from it, he kept running. But then later on, he just stopped. And this is a phenomenon that tends to happen with guys who establish themselves as middle of the order bats.

There's just not the same push for them to run as they're used to. So over the final six weeks last year, uh, he, so 13 for 16 on stolen bases in his first 49 games, three for six in his final 35. I'm expecting the batting average to fall.

The XBA was like 260-ish. His babbip was over 400. 4-10. Yeah, a lot, a ton, a bad strikeout rate for Tatis and a bad ground ball rate too. Really high ground ball rate, kind of like Vladimir Guerrero. And then on top of that, are we sure he's going to steal a lot of bases? There is a lot of room for him to regress.

And given the second round cost, that's pretty scary. Yeah, he only stole three bases after the All-Star break. I don't know what it was after, from Adam's birthday on. And he also had, Tatis had a 410 bad, but he also had a 32. a 32% home run to fly ball rate. So those numbers really jump out at you. He hit 317 with 22 homers and 16 steals and 84 games. I mean, if you just double his numbers or slightly less than double it,

you're talking about one of the best players at fantasy. But let me ask you this. Let's say he hits 250. I'm not going to tell you what the steals are going to be, but I'm just going to say he hits 250. It's dependent on the steals. When would you draft him? When would you draft him?

I still think he'd probably fall a little short of second round value, even if he has like a 30-20 season where he hits 250. But he'll at least not be a bust. At least in my interpretation, he wouldn't be a bust if he did that. But yeah, he would probably be a little overvalued even in that scenario. And we should also point out, I mean, Tatis's value in a points league is much lower, I'd have to say, than a Roto League. And we say all of this with the... The caveat that he's 21 on opening day.

Yep. He's an elite prospect. Right. And he could just take a big step forward, in which case we'll all look like idiots. He could be the best player in fantasy. Yeah, this could. He was the second best player on a per game basis last year.

Yeah. Roto. If he does cut the strike at rate, one really promising sign is he did have a 13.2% barrel rate, which was, you know, one of the 20 or 30 highest in the majors it was top 10%. So the skills are obvious.

It's just a question of whether he is ready and able to put all of the skills into action. I'm going to take him in the third round. I think like middle of the third round. I don't see him go that far. Well, okay, I would take him. I would. And by the way, he was a stud in a points league too last year. Yeah, but his profile is not as good.

You're not as willing to take the. risk in a points league. In a roto league, you need those steals so badly that you are. Yeah. No, I get it. But bad plate discipline is like, it's just a red flag in a points league. It's why his play discipline isn't as bad as Alberto Mondesies, but it's why Mondesie is like a really valuable player in roto leagues potentially and borderline useless

in point. Like, he has to be amazing to be good in points leagues. He was good at points leagues last year. Yeah, because he was amazing when he was healthy. I mean, at the beginning of the season, he was amazing. When he's not, if all he does is steal but he hits like crap, Adelberto Monosy is not going to be good in points. His value is less in points.

I'm not trying to overcomplicate the issue, but I think borderline useless is overstating it. Well, I mean, in a one, in a league where 12 short stops are rostered, I think that's kind of what I meant. He should be toward the back end of that. Very much so. Yes. Yeah.

Okay. All right, let's get, so I'm going to throw out some names as we sort of go down ADP. Tatis was the first name on my list, and we talked about him. Nolan Aronado, I bring him up because Joel Sherman recently wrote that it's basically it's a matter of when, not if, Nolan Aronado gets traded. And he didn't say that it would necessarily be this year. It could be next year. But at some point, he expects Nolan Aronado to get traded.

And Joel Sherman is, you know, a very, very good baseball writer. Do you draft Nolan Aronado worried that he could get traded? And he obviously shouldn't be a first round pick if he's not on Colorado, but he's still very good. But just address that situation with Aronado. I don't worry about it that much. He's not going in the first round that often, which helps. I mean, he's definitively a first round bat,

but he gets pushed out just because he's not a steals guy. He's not high-end arm, and there's more demand for those right now. I don't know when he's going to get traded. You can't say for sure he is going to get traded. He should still be a stud if he's traded. His baseline would drop some. But not enough that I really worry about it now. Okay. Stephen Strasbourg is someone that Chris and I are worried about.

And Strasbourg, the last two times he's had a season with a lot of innings, it hasn't gone really very well for him the following season. He pitched 200 innings. The last time he pitched 200 innings in a season, he threw 127 and a third the following season with a 346 IRA. In 2017, Strausser pitched 189 in a third, and he followed that with a 374 ERA in 130 innings in 2018. So, yeah, I don't like him about 24th overall. I feel like Chris agrees. Scott, do you agree with our Stephen Strauss?

I think the point of disagreement with Stephen Strasbourg, who I rank, I think, 10th at starting pitcher, maybe 9th. So, you know, I haven't behind some of those guys, too. But I think the reason I'm more enthusiastic about it than you guys is, yes, there's still the injury risk. There's injury risk for all of these pitchers. But I feel like Steven Strasberg. I understand statistically it wasn't his best season,

but some of the underlying changes make me feel more confident he can repeat that level of being a dominant pitcher. Part of the equation for Strasbourg for me in the past is, well, how good is he really? I mean, he was a definitive ace. And I couldn't answer that question. But the change in pitch mix and the rise in ground ball rate for Steven Strasbourg, I feel like he's progressed to a point that I don't have that lingering doubt anymore about whether or not he's an ace of healthy. I think he definitely is.

So I'm more willing to take the chance on it because of that. I just, I think you're overstating the impact of that. I think he, like, he's a different version of the same guy he always has been. Like if you look at his, he has a different pitch mix and he got,

right, right, that's what I mean. He's a different version of the same guy he's always been. You look at pretty much every peripheral. And with the exception of last, 2018, which was an abnormally poor season for him. Like his ex-Woba is pretty much identical each of the last five seasons except for 2018.

His ex-Wobon contact, pretty much identical. His strikeout rate, pretty much identical. I just, I don't, I don't necessarily see, like, he is a different pitcher, but the, like, the inputs were different. but the outputs were pretty much the same as they've always been. But he's still really good. I mean, his ERA is a little higher. Strasbourg's ERA is a little higher than a true Aces. He had the highest ERA of any of the pitchers who finished top 12 in points of Roto,

and it was 332. But he reminds me, I've said this so many times, I'm sorry, but he reminds me of Chris Sale, who had, he had a five-year stretch with a 305, 307, then 217, then 341 and 334 ERA. only one season before the trade to Boston with an ERA below three. And when you watched Chris Sale, you just kind of felt like he could easily be a 250, 270 ERA type of pitcher. And what does he do in Boston?

290 and then 211 in his first two seasons. Strasbourg's ERA has been hurt by injuries. So he's pitched hurt. He's come off the I.L. And gotten lit up. He's been a better pitcher than that. I don't have performance concerns with Strasberg. He's the most injury prone pitcher in baseball, arguably.

And people are just completely overlooking that. And I just wouldn't do it. is that it's, of all the guys who we downgrade for their injury history, Steven Strasberg's the one we're not. Yeah. It just doesn't make sense to me. It's weird. All right.

Moving on, I'll go through this list and then you guys can give yours. We've sort of identified Chris Glaver Torres. And again, it's like Tatis. Torres is like 22. He's a little bit older than Tatis. He's awesome. But 28th overall, for a guy who seems to, at the same, this point have one skill and that's hitting for power. Is that fair to say? And, you know,

he's a guy I identify as a, well, if the baseball changes, it could be bad news. So Torres, 28th overall feels a little early. I don't want to just turn this into he's going too early. Like, is Glabertor is going to be a bust? No, I don't think, I think the floor is very high for Labor Torres. I think in that lineup, in that ballpark, it's hard to see something worse than like 270 and 30 homers. I just think he's being drafted as an elite source of power. And I don't see, I have trouble seeing him doing that again. You know, I've cited the, the stat about players who hit a, uh, an abnormal amount of their home runs against one team. And yes, he will get to play the Orioles again, but pretty much every single player. I think there was 11 players previously

who had hit at least 11 home runs in the same season against one team. I think only one of them didn't see their homers decrease the following year. And I think the average decrease was like nine or 10 total. And so, you know, most of those guys hit like 50 homers. Glaber hit 38. So I wouldn't expect a 10 homer decrease. But, you know, I think you, you know, I think you. probably expect something more like 30-32. And, you know, if he hits 270-275 with 32-Homers, that's a profile that's pretty easy to find these days. So he's the number one second base been taken in a 5-5, according to Fantasy Pro's ADP, right?

Yes. Even with the 38 last year, he was only the number six in terms of how he performed. and he's being taken number one. So if we think he kind of overachieved last year, and he was still only number six, what the heck are we doing there? Yeah. I mean, I agree that the bottom out potential here is pretty low.

But yeah, I mean, this is an example of a guy who absolutely was like a headliner on my overrated, according to ADP list, even though he didn't show up on my bust list. Yeah. Yeah, I played appearances had a little bit to do with that for Torres. He played 144 games. He had the eighth most played appearances among second base eligible players

or among second baseman. But yeah, and I think the counting stats, 90 RBI's 96 runs, it's really good, but I think for him to be a third round pick, it's probably going to have to be like 220 combined.

You know, counting stats, it's not, like 100, 100's still really good, but there are a lot more players that score 100 runs than they used to based on last year, which was an offensive explosion. So we'll see. And don't forget, that lineup is going to at least open without Judge and Stanton. I don't know how good that. It's going to be a good lineup, but it's already two of the biggest bats are injured.

All right. Moving down my list, I'm going to finish up quickly and turn it over to you guys. Concerns about Blake Snell, 37th overall. Do you think busts there? 37th overall for Blake Snell. That seems like we're not downgrading him. Yeah, I only have all the drafts I've done so far. I've only gotten Blake Snell once.

And I guess that explains why, because, yeah, I think that's, there is injury risk. He's been dealing with something this spring already. And beyond, and even if he is healthy all year, he's probably not going to give you 200 innings. He's probably not going to give you that ace workload just because he gets removed so early. And because he gets removed so early, that's going to impact his win potential as well. So that's definitely a guy with a high ceiling, but another instance where things could go very wrong. Yeah, Scott's got Blake Snow 15th in his rankings.

He's got guys like Corbyn, Giolito, Castillo, Kershaw, and Nola ahead of him. I think you could make the case that he could be better in a Roto League. You don't get points for innings than a points league. But yeah, there's big injury risk. And I also will say that these ADPs are maybe, I should do it like NFBC and look at a date range, but I'm just using fantasy pros. So they haven't adjusted. Like Chris Sale is still 37th.

So they haven't adjusted for injuries. All right. Back to the list. Mani Machado, 53rd overall. This is the most overrated player. The most overdrafted player. The single most overdrafted player. What are we doing with Mani Machado?

I guess we're just calling last year a fluke, but the same thing kind of happened during his half season with the Dodgers. It was the case of a guy who his home away splits at a hitter-friendly park always favored. He was always much better at home than on the road. And then when he leaves that hitter-friendly park, suddenly his road numbers become his baseline numbers, which means pretty good power still, but that's about it.

And like it's backed up by his bat at ball profile. This is a guy who does not hit many line drives consistently. The line drive rate is low. And so he was kind of counting on the home run boosting effects of Camden Yards to sustain his batting average. And now obviously that's not true. I mean, he was especially bad at Petco Park last year. His numbers were just awful. 7.03 OPS.

That's his new home. Yeah, he's not that bad, but it's obviously going to be a downgrade. Yeah. And like shortstop and third base, the two positions he's both eligible. Those are the deepest positions. Home runs are very easy to find. I think there's a little, I think people are banking on track record here. I'm not sure they're taking a close enough look at it.

So I so far have done more of an overdrafted list instead of a bottom out, you suck list. So let me turn it over to you guys. Scott, why don't you give me a few more busts? So we talked about Fernando Tatis, sort of his cousin in terms of concerns, is Vladimir Guerrero, who I referenced when I talked about Fernando Tatis. The big issue for Vladimir Guerrero,

the strikeout rate was low, the high-end exit velocity, like his hardest hit balls were among the hardest hit balls in the majors. He just put way too many on the ground. and if that doesn't change, he can't become the masher

we're all hoping he'll be. It just doesn't add up to him being that. He needs to improve that ground ball rate and he's being drafted assuming he will. I don't think there's justification for that personally. Third base is so deep

and there are just such greater needs than third base. base at the stage of the draft where Vladimir Guerrera goes, which is like round five, round six, right? Yeah. I just, like, I don't disagree,

but I'm not going to, I'm not going to hold the ground ball rate again, because Juan Soto had a... I understand. Yeah, and here's the other thing. But one Soto was great even with the high ground ball rate. Yeah, but I've been meaning to say this. You know, like Aaron Judge is a ground ball hitter.

The best hitters in baseball, can be groundball hitters who hit the crap out of the ball because that helps their batting average, even if they strike out a lot. And when they do put the ball in the air, they're going to have a high home run to fly ball rate. So I feel like Black can do that. I love hitters in the ALE East. There are four good hitters parks in the ALE East, and then there's Tampa Bay. And I don't know. Adam, Aaron Judge is not a ground ball hitter.

He kind of is a ground ball hitter. He's a line drive hitter. His line drive rate is what stands out the most when you break down the... I think he hits more ground balls and fly balls, doesn't he? His fly ball rate is fairly low for a guy who hits... For the power he does. Although it was its lowest last year in what was kind of an underwhelming season by Aaron Judge standards, but he was on the field.

Obviously, Vladimir Guerrero has to change as a hitter. I think that when we first started drafting months ago, I was kind of curious, where is he going to go? And I think gutting to the fifth or sixth round, to me, it's worth it. And it's really so personal because I'm not basing this on what he did. You are, and that probably makes more sense. But I think a lot of people are going to come out of my approach where it's just like, I don't care what he did as a rookie.

I just, I know how excited we were about him a year ago. And I, you know, I think you had said best hitting prospects since Albert Pujols. So I'm willing. Well, best I'd ever seen. I wasn't doing this when Albert Poolewell. came up. Okay, fair enough. So I can't really compare him to that.

But yeah, it was, it was, yeah, I mean, it's, it's a total upside play. Total. I get it. I get it. But it's, the downside to missing on that is,

given the players going around him, given what you could get at third base instead later, like, to me, it just, it doesn't add up. The downside definitely outweighs the upside. And the most likely scenario,

considering it's what, we just saw is that the downside happens. It ends up being reality. I don't know. I mean, who's his rookie year? Guys, Jay, yeah, I don't know. It's probably more likely. It's just blind faith.

And usually you make the kind of blind faith picks in, like, the team. But he also, but he also hit the crap out of the ball. Like, he did hit the ball really hard. And the last thing, for me anyway, is you're right that, you know, there's a lot at third base, but that actually helps him. Because you can draft a second. second third baseman later as your utility. And if Vlad is a bust, then you put him on your bench and wait for him to come out of a slump, hopefully.

And you take that other third baseman. Maybe it was Miguel Sanoe eight rounds later. And you put him in a third base. But what could you have had instead? Of course. That's always. That's the stage of the draft where those high-end starting pitchers are beginning to disappear. That's one of your last chances to get one.

No, I mean, I think you can wait a round or two and get Darvish, Bauer, that group. uh cluber well maybe but how many do you already have at that point i don't think you're wrong i i don't it's it's not like i think you're wrong i just think this is scott's view on vladimir guerrano and this is my view and i feel like it's people are just going to have to decide how they feel about him well well clearly more agree with you based on the adp i mean he's going 61st now i think that's actually pretty good because i think that's fallen that's the first pick of round that's the first pick of six and a 12 team league. Yeah, yeah.

All right. So, any others, Scott? Oh, sure. Yeah, go like a rattle, rattle them off. Your floor is yours. Give me a bust and a quick explanation like you did with the sleepers a couple of days ago. Okay. So a couple of these guys, again, thinking in terms of bottoming out, they were already at their worst last year.

but in a way that concerns me going into this year and if it happens again I worry about their job security so Reese Hoskins is a good example of that and he's talked about making some swing changes he recognizes how awful things went for him and maybe he'll be able to get back on track

but I think I think there's enough of a sample of data there that it now makes sense that we now see the kind of player he is. And it's one who doesn't hit the ball especially hard,

but he puts it in the air. So hits it hard enough that he puts it, that when he puts it in the air as often as he does, he's going to end up with a lot of home runs. But it just totally dooms him in batting average. And, you know, he gets by with it because he walks so much. But if anything were to change there, like a slugging first baseman who just doesn't have a great all-around hitting ability.

like that's a guy whose job is vulnerable, I feel like. So, yeah, you know, it's so annoying about Hoskins. Is that, like, I feel like he and Trey Mancini, they are back-to-back picks, 106th overall. And I feel like that's the end of the startable first basement. You know, after that, I think it's probably Eben Encarnacion. Now, Carlos Santana is there, but that's in a Rotel League. He won't be there in a points league.

I agree. Oh, hey, Chris. Welcome back. So, yeah, so you'd rather have Mancini than Hoskins, right? Scott? Yes. I think it's, I think you could make the case for Hoskins over Mancini in a points league because of how much he walks and because he's not, you don't worry about the batting average potential there. But even then I think I'd go Mancini.

Give me two more and then I'll throw it over to Chris. Chris, by the way. had a mic issue. That's why I hadn't been talking to him for the last five minutes. Look, we all have our routines in the morning and sometimes you record a podcast earlier and it messes up with your routine. Yeah. And some of those, sometimes those routines have to happen. Yeah, it wasn't a bike issue as you probably have now figured out. I was just trying to save face. Uh, for Chris. Scott, two more. Go. Okay. So a guy. I fear has bottoming out potential is

I can't decide which one I want to say, but I'm going to say Andrew Benintendi. I just want nothing to do with Andrew Benintendi. I understand there's a discount now, if you're looking at it from the context of even last year where he was drafted, and certainly like two years ago where he was drafted. But it's been a year and a half of him just being useless.

Basically, Nick Marquakis-level production. So if that's who he is, then it's still a breach to draft him among the top 30 outfielders. It's still a pick that is going to be a total waste for you. He doesn't run much anymore. He's stopped hitting for power. He's not even a reliable source of batting average. So what are we doing there with him? We have an email about him on the mailback show.

I'll give a counterpoint. Not a disagreement. Just a, hey, there's this scenario for Ben and Tendi. One more. Okay, so this is more of just these overdrafted. I'm going to go with Javier Baez, I think, is probably the second most overdrafted player after Manny Machado for... 40th overall. Yeah.

And, like, he's an okay source of batting average. He's going to hit you 30-ish home runs, probably. He's going to be a useful player. But to go that high, you're counting on steals again that just weren't there last year. And the rate was so bad that I don't think we should be counting on them being there. If he's just another slugging shortstop, and it sounds funny to say from somebody who's been playing fantasy a long time.

But there's just so many of them. Why are you using your fourth round pick on that? Yeah. And he goes, Baez and Albiz are basically back-to-back in drafts. It's a clear call for me to go Ozzy Albys. Yeah, weaker position helps in scarcer categories. Yeah, he's just a better all-round player. I haven't drafted as the Yalbis yet either because I don't think he's great value or you look at it to do other things at that point.

But it's a more logical pick to me than bias. All right, Chris, give me a few busts on your list. So when I did my bust list, I did it in kind of a different way and I kind of went with guys with risk factors rather than guys I definitely think are busts. but one of the key ones for me, and it's a guy I haven't really, I don't think I've drafted at all, is Pete Alonso. I think in an era where there's probably six or seven guys

who could hit 50 homers, I don't know why we're reaching at number 26 overall for a guy who's done it. Like, he had a great rookie season, but as we've seen with someone, like Aaron Judge, I think being probably the most high profile example. Yes, he's dealt with injuries the last two seasons. But even when he was on the field, he didn't hit for the same power he did his first season.

There is a tendency, I think, to assume that a rookie season sets a baseline. And that's just not the case. He could have just had a career year as a rookie. It wouldn't be the first time that's happened. I believe that he's good. But I'm not 100% concerned. convinced he's better than Matt Olson. Are you saying he's Bob Hamlin? Is that what you're saying right now?

I was more Chris Coglin. The next Chris Coglin. All right, Pete Alonzo. That's the one that's close to my heart. You've pretty much convinced me to skip over Pete Alonzo and go, I like Matt Olson. So, yeah, Matt Olson goes like 30 picks later. Who else? Other busts? Other busts I actually believe in. Ooh, that's a tough one.

I've got some. Liam Hendricks. I think Liam Hendricks is a perfect example of what you should try to avoid on draft day. It's a single year breakout as a reliever. He threw as many innings last season as Frankie Montas. And hey, I believe in Frankie Montas. But Franky Montas doesn't have a track record of being a pretty mediocre pitcher the way Liam Hendricks does. Liam Hendricks was an okay guy to have in your bullpen for,

the last few seasons. He has this crazy out of nowhere season and we're just like, oh, he's a top five closer now. And like, didn't we learn our lesson with the last guy who the athletics opened the season with as their closer coming off a giant breakout season like Trinan? Yeah. Who lost his job to Liam Hendricks. I believe the athletics have had a different saves leader in each of the last six seasons. Yeah, and I will say Hendricks 180 ERA

124 strikeouts and 85 innings He was lost. Unbelievable. Yeah, second most strikeouts after Hater. They DFA'd him two seasons ago. His velocity went up, but you know, don't just look at his career numbers because if you filter out the starts, you just look at the four seasons before 2019.

He had mostly been a reliever. Still wasn't really that good. 369 ERA, yeah, like Chris said, 369 ERA, 1.23 whip. But he did have. 10 strikeouts per 9 and only 2.4 walks. But all right, Liam Henderson. And I'm going to say Josh Hader is a pretty big bust in a points league.

Not in a Rotel League. I want to clarify that. But on CBS in points leagues, Josh Hader is going 52nd overall. He had the fewest fantasy points for the number one relief pitcher in the last 10 decades. All the guys who finished number one, 10 years, sorry, last decade. All the guys who finished number one in the last 10 years, Josh Hater had the lowest fantasy point total. and the fewest saves of any of those closers. The way they use him, they use him for an inning in two-thirds

or two innings or something like that, and it takes away the amount of times he can appear in a game. And that takes away the amount of saves he can have. And that's the biggest factor in points leagues. So in Roto, absolutely not a bust. Love Josh Hater. It could be the backbone of my pitching strategy. But in a points league, given the fact that we have so many good sparse this year,

given the fact that you only need a roster two RPs and those sparps are included. I hate Josh Hater in the 50s. I will basically... You're a hater. You're a hater. I will never have Josh Hater on my team in a points league. And one more closer, Kenley Jansen.

I know the spring stuff apparently is good. I'm just not really buying it. And that's a guy who has the chance to really bottom out and be awful. No Kenny Jansen on my teams. One more. Jordan Alvarez. Oh, fight. He has a...

I mean, it's a short track track, of injuries because he has a short track record in general. But last season was the first time he had ever played more than 90 games in a year. And he dealt with knee soreness last year. Now in spring training, he's already dealing with knee soreness. And there's a lot of reports that he's basically not expected to play in the outfield at all. So you're probably looking at DH or utility only all season. And yeah, he's a great, great hitter, I think.

he's at the one really good season or the one elite season across the major and the minors he was good in 2018 but not at that level so just for me it it's hard to buy the one year

breakout when it could be a one year wonder especially given that he already has health concerns at such a young age and he's utility only I don't I don't see any reason to take Jordan Alvarez when you can get Nelson

Cruz, you know, 50 picks later, or whatever the difference is. Maybe, though I do think Jordan Alvarez, and I thought we agreed we were calling him Jordan now. I'm on team, Jordan. Yeah, I'm on. I think he's, I think he's underdrafted, given what he could,

given the ceiling versus the players, the ceiling of the players going around him. He's somebody I like to draft. I'm not saying there isn't, potential there. I think it's possible somebody could be underdraft, underdrafted and still have a bust case. You could make a bust case for most anybody, I guess. Yes. But

yeah, he's somebody I end up drafting a lot because I feel like, minus any hope of steals, there's a chance he's close to Mike Trout level just as a pure hitter. And to get that in round three, sometimes as late as round four, I'm happy to do that.

All right, that's Jordan Alvarez. I just want to say one more name. I know It's not bad value, and his position eligibility is probably worth having him, but I just don't see myself drafting Danny Santana. 353 Babib had a 706 OPS in his last 47 games. Kind of feel like he got figured out and just was a really horrible hitter from 2015 to 2018. So the hard contact rate was great for Danny Santana, but I just can't see it. And they might hit him in the middle of the order,

And that didn't seem to matter last year in terms of steals. But if Danny Santana is hitting in the middle of the order for the Rangers, he might not run. So I don't. One more. All right. One more. Go. Eduardo Escobar.

Oh, really? Yeah. Why? I talk about people who underperformed their expected stats a lot. He's a guy who overperformed his expected stats and had this monster year in his 30s that isn't backed up by the underlying numbers. So I'm always apologizing for the guys who have the late breakout. It is backed up, but his isn't. And I mean, Chris has talked before about Jose Abraeus, RBI Total,

how just unlikely it is to happen again, just law of averages. That's not going to happen again. I don't care if the White Sucks lineup is better. It shouldn't have happened in the first place. Eduardo Escobar's RBI Total might be a more egregious example of that. All right. Facebook group. Join it. It's fantasy baseball today. Facebook.com

slash groups slash fantasy baseball today. I started a new keeper thread a few days ago. You can reply to that and hopefully get some feedback from the listeners. Mailbag show coming tomorrow. I want to thank you all for your comments and your questions and Apple Podcasts. Very helpful stuff and much appreciated. Go to CBSSports.com slash newsletters and sign up, get our Fantasy Baseball Today newsletter. You get the great content right in your inbox.

Podcast stuff, you know, breaking news kind of stuff, Chris Sale reaction. All that stuff could be in the newsletter. CBSSports.com slash newsletters. A few quick notes. Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde. He said that Hunter Harvey is an option to close and that Harvey has closed or stuff. He was effusive in his praise of Hunter Harvey,

who had a 142 ERA and 11 strikeouts with four walks in six and a third last season. Obviously, they stink. They had the seventh year with save opportunities last year, but don't forget about Hunter Harvey. I drafted him in Tout Wars. There you go. I invested very little in saves, but I have two projected closers and one possible closer in him.

So I'm hopeful. The White Sox signed Yawam Moncata to a five-year $70 million deal. A.J. Puck, good news. He does not have structural damage in his shoulder. And he's going to be on an innings limit, apparently about 120 innings this year for A.J. Puck. But this is not a big setback for him. It doesn't seem. Oscar Mercado has a sprained wrist. Keep an eye on that. He's got 20 steel potential, Mercos.

25? Yeah, I think it might have more. Oh, really? I was going to say that's about as far as I go. Wasn't he a bigger steals guy in the minors? I remember. Everybody was a bigger steals guy in the miners. Sure, but he was like a 50 steel guy in the miners had a pretty good success rate.

So I think there's, he's still 29 between AAA and the majors in 145 games last year. I think there's probably 30. He was a big steal. 50, 33, 38, and 31 steals in his last four minor league seasons. I just don't really know if he's that good of a hitter. But we'll find out. Oscar Mercado. And Casey Mize, starting pitcher for the Tigers.

He had a good outing against the Yankees yesterday. And just we haven't really talked about Casey Mize. Where does he fall in with that Dillen-Cis, Michael Kopeck, Mitch Keller group? He's less likely to reach the majors this year, I think, just because the Tigers have nothing to play for. It's going to be interesting who makes the majors first between him, Tariq Skubal, and Matt Manning, who are all kind of on the same level and have similarly dominated in the minors. Tariq Scoobal has probably been – it was one year. He got broke out last year, but it was the most dominant of all of them, and has gotten the most buzzed this spring. And finally, the Brewers committed highway robbery signing Christian Yelich to a seven-year, $188.5 million deal. Very impressive.

All right, auctions. 15, 20 minutes on auctions here. Email from Matt. What is your, this is a huge email. This is a big part of auctions. What is your normal strategy for nominating players in an auction league? I typically nominate guys

that I want no part of so the rest of the league spends their money. I've been finding lately, though, that I've been getting in bidding wars later in the draft of the guys that I am waiting on. Yep. So would I be better off nominating players that I want early on in drafts?

I would say, as a general rule, Yes, nominate guys you don't want, especially if it's a, if you're expensive guys. Nominate guys you don't want, generally speaking. Yeah, but guys that are going to go for a lot, get a lot of money off the board. Don't nominate a 15th round pick that you don't want. If there is a guy that your whole auction strategy depends on, or the stage of the auction you've reached from that point forward, that is the single guy you're counting on,

go ahead and throw him out there because you don't want to end up in a position where you're passing up these great values waiting around for your guy and then when he finally does get nominated, you realize it was unrealistic you were going to get him in the first place and then you have this pile of money

that you could have used on those other players that now there's nothing left to use it on. How much do you nominate him for? Okay, so for me, let's say it's Noamazara and I really want. I think he should be a dollar player in a 12-team, five outfielder league, maybe $2 because people will like him,

but he hasn't, he hasn't earned that. But do I go ahead and nominate him for $1 or do I nominate him for $2? And if you're listening and you've never done an auction, this might sound stupid. But like, if I nominate him for a dollar, the next bid obviously goes to someone else. I can't make the next bid. If I don't get him for a dollar, I have to bid $3.

Like, you know, it does, so you cannot, if you dominate a guy for a dollar, you can't get him for two. You're either getting him for one or you're getting him for $1 or you're getting him for $3. three or more. So you have to decide, is no Mar Mazar worth $3? And if not, then maybe you nominate him for two. And you say, if anybody wants to go three, then go for it. I'll nominate him for two. That kind of gets to endgame strategy too, which I actually feel like

is the most important part of the auction. And the way I handle that is I don't, when you're down to your last few dollars, right? Obviously with early in the auction when mostly big name players are being nominated. You throw a guy out there for a dollar knowing he's going to go for well more than that. So you don't really get into those mind games of how much should I nominate him for. But if it's, you're down to your last few dollars. Usually it's a point where I basically my, my total balance is double my max bid. That's about the range where I'm talking about. The guys I

nominate aren't actually the guys I want at that point. It's, and so I nominate them for a dollar, hoping somebody goes two. If nobody does, like I nominate a guy who I wouldn't mind getting for a dollar, but it's not one of the guys I'm really wanting either. Yeah. And so I let somebody else fit on. The guys I really want, that's when I do wait for somebody else to nominate them. And then I jump in immediately with the second dollar.

Or if it's somebody I really, really want, I go straight to three so that I don't wind up in a position where I'm going to have to pay four, you know? And it's a big deal. A dollar counts. Yeah, I thought the last, the half, the whole thing. head-to-head auction we did last week, right, last Friday? I really, really liked my team. I thought I kind of crushed that draft. And one thing I found was I really liked having like $16 left for the last like six or seven

roster spots rather than like eight, which a lot of people will end up with because by the last few picks, I was pretty much able to get anyone I want. I always do that. I stole Marcana from Scott. He was very upset. There were another couple guys that I was able to push to like three or four dollars to get. And it's just it also, there's going to be one person in your draft at that point who's got like $40. And so you're, you also have the freedom to make them pay for the guys that they want.

So that was actually, that was actually a rare instance that auction where I was down to $1 bids for like my last six spots or so, I almost never do. It was a situation where I felt like I needed another arm and so I had to go max bit on Sean. And the reason for that was the other thing I wanted to say, which was that maybe it'll be different in the auction that we're doing today, which is a roto auction, but pitchers went for stupid prices last week.

I get why they did. But one thing I had a lot of success within that auction was buying a lot of hitters early. because they just, their prices were so ridiculously low. I think I got laid out. I don't think the Roto one's going to go. But they're bringing up a good point because the reason why I don't do more auction talk on the podcast. Can you do more auction?

They're all different. So you can't go by ADP. That stuff goes out the window. So I think Chris makes a good point. I think it's important to adjust to what's happening in your auction. And if you're saying, well, I refuse to pay this much for pitching or this much for this, or whatever. But if everybody else is doing it, you have to adjust. It's almost the same strategy as it draft. If you want to get aces and everybody else is taking pitchers before you thought you

had to, well, then you've got to get in on that run, even if it's against your core auction values or draft values. But I will say, if it goes as extreme as it did last week, by elite hitters. I think I had like four or five first or second round hitters. All right. Well, yeah, you could do that too. And like, but don't be a pitching. Don't be rigid. to more of a player pool discussion. Don't be rigid. Like, I think it particularly in a points league, I'm of the mindset you just can't win without good pitching.

It's just not going to happen. So I was not adjusting that particular part of my approach. But as a general rule, if we're talking about auctions more generally, then yes, I think what projected auction values are best for, their best application, is just knowing that the math's already been done,

that $260 has been distributed for however many roster spots among 12 teams. And so if you see the high-end players all going for less than the projected auction values, you're going to know, oh, that means there's going to be more money spent later on the mid-range guys who probably aren't going to make as big of an impact for my team anyway. I should probably buy more of these high-end guys than I had planned to originally. And that's another good point. So there's the studs and duds approach, and then there's the kind of balanced lineup approach. So how do you determine which approach to take, Scott, and obviously league depth matters here?

Yes, that's everything. Standard 12 team league, or certainly anything, shallower. I go studs and duds. I go studs and duds. I know there's going to be a robust waiver wire. I'm confident in my ability to find breakouts there. Hold on, hold on. Standard 12-team league. What's the roster size, though? Well, I'm thinking a roto league, so even bigger than a head-to-head league.

So even in the auction we're going to do in two hours, which is five outfield, there's two catchers, corner infield, middle-infield, plus first, second, third short, and utility, and then nine pitcher spots and seven bench spots. That's a lot of players, the 30-man rosters on 12 teams. Yeah. Do you still go studs and duds there? Duds and duds. The waiver wire won't be as robust, but there will be players emerging on it. And not only that,

but the kind of hitters that I can get for $2, because I'm not going to be the guy settling for $1 players at the end and having to wait every time, having to nominate a guy for $1, seeing somebody outbid and having to wait through another round of nominations to nominate the next guy and ending up with all the worst remaining players because of that. I'm going to be the guy jumping in and stealing those.

those guys for two or three dollars. I'm going, I think the low end hitters that are purchased in the auction that way are of a high enough quality. And even if they don't work out, there are going to be ballback options emerging on waivers. So yes, I want the impact players who, the kind of players who I'm normally making two for one offers for during the season and getting rejected for, just go ahead and buy them out right, have them there from the beginning. And trust yourself to

fortify the roster around them as the season plays out. Chris, do you have a... You said you want to have money at the end. So I agree. Okay, let me start by saying this. An auction is an opportunity to get any player you want.

Every player's up for grabs. You don't have to worry about who's taken who. Obviously, you have a budget. But if I am in a, the auction we're doing today, if I walk out of it without two top 15 players, I'm very, very disappointed. I really want to identify how many elite players there are, and I want to get at least two of them.

But that might cost me a lot of money. However, I pretty much every single auction I've done, I always have money left at the end, and I love having money left at the end. And I love... You don't want to have the most money. And I love having I'm not going to go crazy

at the beginning of the auction because people get a little bit impatient. You have to be patient because a guy like Nick Castiano could be a steal. A guy like Eddie Rosario could go for $5. You just never know.

Those mid-round players that people aren't excited about necessarily, they just become these great values. You don't want to be shut out of that. So I think it's important to be patient in an auction and not spend too much too early. I think it depends because sometimes you'll see the guys that get auctioned go early, go really, really high.

And then sometimes you'll see that those guys don't end up going for all that much more than the next tier down because people start to get desperate. That's what happened in the auction league last week where the second tier of pitchers really, really got pushed up. And so, you know, I was able to get Justin Verlander for less. than Zach Grinke ended up going for. And so I don't think you want to just sit it out. You have to read it and set your limits. And tiers, I think you sort of touched on that. Scott, talk about the importance of tiers and auctions.

So that's another instance where you might want to nominate the guy you actually want. If it's nearing, if a tier is nearing depletion at a position and you don't want to have to settle for the next tiered down at a position, um, either go ahead and nominate one of the last two remaining guys or even the last guy. And, um, so,

certainly if it's like not the last guy yet, because the last guy in a tier tends to go for a lot more that, like, for instance, even if we're just talking to the high end, um, let's say Mike Trout gets nominated and he only goes for, $40. And then Christian Yelich, he doesn't even quite get to 40. You know what that means?

It probably means everybody's expecting to buy Ronald de Kune. And Ronald de Kuhnge then goes for $52. So that's kind of the most extreme example, but it can happen further down in the tiers at different positions too. Right. And you don't want to be left out of a tier. So let's say you don't want to be weak at first base. and Freeman's off the board and Bellinger's off the board. Hold on.

Let me just get the actual first base ADP up, right? So Bellinger, Freeman, Alonzo, Rizzo, LeMayhew, they're all off the board. And you said yourself, okay, I want one of these guys. I want Goldschmidt, Oleson, Abrae, Muncie, Josh Bell. And after that, that's 10 first baseman. I want a top 10 first baseman. Okay, well now let's say Goldsmith's off the board. Abraeu's off the board.

now you really don't want to keep waiting necessarily if you're tiering Matt Olson, Muncie, and Bell together you don't want to be the last one because you're going to have to pay so much more, not necessarily. You might have to pay a lot more, right? Because as these guys, as the tier shrinks, the demand becomes higher for Matt Olson or whatever.

Be the second or third to last in that tier. Because if you wait until the end, if you're the last person to, If you're getting the last guy in a tier, then there's going to be three or four people that you're bidding against. They all want that player. And all of a sudden, Matt Olson just went for five more dollars than Paul Goldschmidt did, you know, two rounds of bidding ago.

So that's something to keep in mind as well. Two things I'm going to be doing is making a list of players that I want. You know, and it could be, it's mostly going to be the cheap players because those are the ones that are easiest to forget about. Now, Scott and Chris, all of us, like, we're going to do a lot of draft. and it's going to be a little bit easier for us. But if you're just a casual fantasy baseball player, I really think it's easy to forget about some players that you might want.

So make a list, you know, and cue them up if you want, but just be aware that if you are on the clock in a CBS league and they're in your queue, they're going to get automatically nominated if you miss your time to nominate. And then also identify players that help in particular categories. Okay, I have a batting average list. I have a steals list. I have, you know, I may have forgot, hold on, let me find my list.

You can go find a good list of this on CBSSports.com. I tiered players by skill, having average home runs and stolen bases. That's perfect. And like I have a late round pick list, and I have Shogo Akiyama on there. And if I didn't do that before the draft today, I never would have remembered about Shogo Akiyama,

and somebody would have nominated him, and I'd be like, oh, I should have nominated him for a dollar or something like that, but I kind of like him. So just, you know, have a list of players you want, and be prepared. Being prepared and being patient. The two peas of auctions, ladies and gentlemen. Do you guys have any other tips you'd like to give out?

I would say the very biggest tip, and it's kind of just driving home the point that I was making earlier, is the time to be patient is when your max bid is about half of what your balance is. And once that happens, or it could be a little before them, But about at that point, you have to change your approach entirely. You start nominating players you don't really want, but could live with for a dollar. And then you have in mind the ones that you're ready to pounce on when somebody else nominates them. The ones you want go straight to $2.

The ones you really want go straight to $3. And then don't go beyond that. And don't hesitate. because if you're checking your notes, do I really want this guy, somebody else is going to jump in with a $2 bid, and then you have to go three, and you just wasted a very valuable dollar at that point.

So that would be my biggest thing to consider when you're doing an auction. Also, beware of the jump bids. Like when someone goes, like a player's at 20 and someone puts in a $35 bid, and you were about to hit the, Plus one button. I don't use the plus button, one button for that reason.

I don't. Oh, that's interesting. I've been my auction in that. That's interesting. Don't azure it. This is the last thing. There's always at least one player of the 30, well, I guess 23 that we do a 23-man auction, like 23 round auctioned, basically, and then a seven-round reserve draft.

So we auctioned the first 23 players on our rosters. There's always at least one player where I get him, and I'm like, why did I do that? don't even want this guy. Yeah. I always do that. I get like antsy. Oh, this guy. Like it's a shiny new toy.

Just don't do that. And that's why it's important to pay attention to tears to really know who you want. I think that you go into the auction with a general idea of the players that you want, how you want your team to look. And just, again, it's about preparation and patience. Pee-P. Pee-P on your auction. All right, good stuff, guys. Now let's do our mailbag.

So you'll hear from us on Saturday. And have a great Friday, everybody. See you.