Fantasy Baseball Today - Busts! Where To Draft Fernando Tatis? (07/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 16, 2020

We are now just one week away from Opening Day!! Before we get into specific players, how would you define a bust (2:21)? What are the different categories of a bust in Fantasy Baseball?... Why is Scott out on Madison Bumgarner aka Mason Saunders (5:10)? ... Sometimes it's hard to let go of names who were once first rounders (8:19). Frank thinks Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Altuve are a few of those players. ... Let's have the Fernando Tatis conversation (14:11). Where should you be drafting him? ... Is Bo Bichette really a bust (19:00)? His ADP seems like it's getting out of control. ... Scott rattles off a few more names he's avoiding including Josh Hader, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Andrew Benintendi, and Rhys Hoskins (22:44). Frank tells you why you should pass on Whit Merrifield. ... Can't have a bust episode without mentioning Trevor Bauer (28:00). ... Who are some of the honorable mentions in the bust category (31:10)? ... What's a popular TV show we consider a bust (36:26)? ... Hitting the latest news and notes, we have updates on Jacob deGrom, Jesus Luzardo, and Charlie Blackmon (41:21). With Willie Calhoun doubtful for the opener, Nick Solak is trending up, as is Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Don't forget about Corbin Burnes late in your drafts! ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our new YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Would you look at that? We are just one week away from opening day, and I am pumped. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. Frank Stample here with Scott. White, a little two-man show for you here on a Thursday, July 16th. And Scott, you know now that we're just one week away from baseball starting, it's going to feel like a month, right? You know that. Yeah, one week away, it's going to feel like a month.

No, it's going to go by quickly. I have a lot to do between now and the start of the season. I think it's going to go by quickly. And I think the season itself is going to go by quickly because like we're basically, you know, what's normally the end of May or the start of June, I guess, that's going to be the end of the season. And it's going to be over in a blink of an eye. So I'm looking forward to it. I think it's going to be fun. Yeah, let's enjoy it while we can. On today's show, we're going to go over the most likely busts for this season. And we're going to hit on the latest news every single day. It seems like there's so much news coming out, especially with summer camp 2.0, people are ramping up,

injuries are taking place, COVID-related news items, so we'll get into all of that. We'll have a little bit of a general discussion regarding bus as well, because I think that is necessary. Before we get into all of that, I just want to say that I finally sat down last night. I carved some time out, and I listened to all of the song submissions.

I read all of your emails for our listener leagues, and I was just completely floored. I knew you guys were awesome. You guys, the listeners, and for those watching on our Fantasy Baseball today, YouTube channel, thank you. But the creativity, the thoughtfulness, I was just blown away, Scott. It was awesome. I know that you've had a chance to listen to some of the songs too. So yeah, I'll be announcing the winners that are going to be in the listener league tomorrow. Again, we will have our live mock draft.

A heads head points mock draft on tomorrow's show. And I will announce the winners. So looking forward to that, but I've just got to say, you guys are fantastic. All right, Scott, bust. Let's talk about it because sometimes, all right, there are semantics involved with sleepers, breakouts, but I think with busts, they can mean a few things. I think you have different categories. I think you can have an overvalued category. I think that you can have a category where, okay, these players just could completely sink your season and sink your fantasy teams.

How would you define a bust? Because sometimes I think when people hear bust and they hear us talk about a player, that we think is a bust, they just completely say, all right, I can't draft that player. Right. But that's not necessarily true. I mean, you had Madison Bumgarner as a bust, and you got him for $6 in our auction last week.

So everybody has a price. And he's probably my biggest bust, so that's true. There is no player. I just absolutely wouldn't draft under any circumstances. So let's dispel with that myth right off the bat. But even so, I've tried to be, be more precise in my definition of bust, in part because I have a lot of buckets. I can drop players in now I have, you know, overrated by ADP bucket I can put players in,

and I want my bust list to look different from that list. So I try not to, not to put that bust label on players, I merely think are, you know, slightly overvalued. I try to treat it more as bottom out potential. Like this player has the potential to crash and be virtually useless for you. That's what, just in the last couple years, that's what I've tried to reserve my bust list for. And even that can be contradictory.

I mean, a player with that definition of bust can also be a breakout candidate, I think of like Matthew Boyd or, you know, frankly, even like Vladimir Guerrero, who I have on my bust list, you know, they can kind of fall into both of those categories. But so there is kind of an element of ADP, you know, where they're actually going and do I want them at that price that that does have some influence on it still. Because, you know, if Vladimir Garo was a 15th rounder instead of a sixth rounder,

then he'd probably be on my breakout's list instead of my bust list. So it's not like I'm completely divorcing myself from ADP when putting to the end of this list. But the biggest element for me is what does the downside look like for this player and how likely is he to reach it? All right, Scott. So with that being said, why don't you give me your top bust for 2020? And tell me which one of those buckets he falls into.

Do you think that it's more of a bottom out potential? Or do you think this person is just overrated by ADP? It's actually Madison Bumgarner. I think that's the first league where I've gotten him and $6. It was a great price for him. So that's why I did it. I think I got him in Tout Wars, which was a head-to-head points auction, and I got him also for $6.

And he's a bus for me too. Yeah, yeah. But $6, I mean, it's a great price. Right, right. There can come a point where everybody's united and in their fear of him, and then you end up getting him after all. So, I mean, the bottom out potential for Bum Garner is pretty obvious.

He's pitched the past, he's pitched his entire career in San Francisco, home of the best pitchers park, and specifically the last two years for him there, when we saw some skills decline, which may or may not be attributable to that motor bike accident, he got in, I think it was midway through 2016 or 2017.

Basically ever since then, he hasn't been as dominant. And yet he's been useful in fantasy still. But when you look at his home away splits, you have to wonder how much of it was just the venue he was pitching in because last year he had a 293 at ERA at home compared to 529 on the road. Two years ago, 163 at home versus 497 on the road. I mean, I don't see how you're not scared of that now that he's with Arizona, obviously.

That could cause the whole thing to unravel. And, you know, I don't want to make a big investment in him because of that. I can certainly see a path where he overcomes it. His cutter is actually his primary pitch, not his fastball, Cutter Velocity was back up a little bit last year. He did actually have a pretty good swinging strike rate. And like he's Madison Bumgarner, so he just has a reputation of doing things you don't expect him to do.

So, you know, I'm not opposed to giving him the benefit of the doubt for the right price, but it has to be a really good price for me because I'm pretty scared of just what the numbers show. And wasn't he doing some kind of rodeo thing in the offseason two? Like the guy's just a wild card. His name was Mason Saunders. That was like his rodeo like surname. And you're right. I mean, he just,

he's kind of a wild card. You don't know what he's going to do. And his price tag. So I'm looking at NFBC ADP for the month of July. And he's going right around Max Fried. Max Fried, who I had as a breakout yesterday. He's going just ahead of Kentimaiata,

who Scott had as a breakout yesterday. So not only is their bottom out potential, I think it's the price tag too. I think it's the name Madison Bumgren. People still hold on to that name. And because of that, there are a few names that I want to bring up here, Scott. Okay.

I think Paul Goldschmidt, I think people see the name and remember the fact that he was a first round player for so many years that sometimes it's kind of hard to let go of that. But he's turning 33 years old in September and the plate discipline is starting to decline, 24% strikeout rate over the past two seasons.

and last year, he had a 753 OPS or worse in four out of six months. League average OPS is 758. We are playing a two-month season. So what happens if those 753 OPS months come in a shortened season? Last year he was the 12th best first baseman in both formats. He's the seventh best first baseman in ADP right now. So I would love him into a similar category as Madison Bumgarner. I'm with you. He's Paul Goldramitz on my bust list too. And the most condemning stat for me is that he hit just 232 against four seam fastballs last year. He's a career 309 hitter against them. So the bat's slowing down. Yeah, yeah. It seemed like a in addition to some of the changes in plate discipline that we've seen. I think that stat in particular is the clearest indication that his bat is beginning to slow down. And who knows who knows how much.

much life he has left in it. He may be able to ring a couple more productive years out of it, but I think his best is certainly behind him. And I think the most you can hope for from Goldschmidt this year is just serviceable production at the position. All right, I'm going to throw another name your way. This one might be a little more controversial, Scott. So get ready. Jose Altuve. And I think that by this time next year, we could be talking about Jose Altuve in a similar vein as Paul Goldschmidt. And look, I might be overstating that, but he has dealt with knee and hamstring injuries,

each of the past two seasons, which has forced him to miss. 63 total games. As a result, his steals have gone from 32 to 17 to 6 over the past three seasons. The plate discipline, it's still very good by league-wide standards, but it is starting to slip a little bit for him. His 15% strikeout rate was a career high. 7.5% walk rate was his lowest since 2015.

And I think he was helped out by the juice ball. Again, we don't know which ball is going to be played with this year, but a 23% home run to fly ball ratio, he hit a career high 31 homers. Normally, that was never higher than 14.6% home run to fly ball ratio for Altuve. I just think if he's a 280, 290 hitter, 22 home run pace, 10 steel pace, I just, I don't think he's going to be worth his third or fourth round price tag. I'd rather have Ozzie Albies and Cate over

Jose Altuvae, Scott. I would rather have Catele-Marte over him, and I think it's pretty close with Ozzy Albees. So if that's your standard for a bust, I guess I could see it. I do understand the argument for Al-Tuvee look as productive as he was last year, hitting a career high, 31 home runs,

and only 124 games. He outperformed his peripherals, so maybe we shouldn't trust in that. He doesn't run much anymore, like you said. and yet I have a hard time I have a hard time calling Altuvae a bust because he just had his most productive season purely as a hitter

I mean obviously not as an overall fantasy player with the stolen basis but purely as a hitter he just had his most productive season he's going later than any of us remember him going since he became a fantasy asset and like I think the track record when you consider he's already discounted

from what we know him to be and he did just have a great year. I think the track record counts for more than maybe what those peripheral show just last year. Like there's not, I think it's kind of a stretch. If he was going in round two,

I could understand it more, but he tends to go in more like round, what's his ADP, round four, round five. in the month of July over at the NFBC his ADP is 39 that's round four

round four yeah he's going a little bit later now than he was originally so I wonder if people are starting to change their mindset on Altuve fantasy pros he's still the second second baseman

ADP of 31 but yeah NFBC he's the fifth one but they're all kind of bunched together glaber is 28 and then VR is 41. So you have six second baseman going within 13 picks of each other. So they're all very closely bunched up.

But, Scott, your argument for Altuve there, I just feel like we could have said that last year about Paul Goldschmidt, no? And I did say that about Paul Goldschmidt, and he took a clearer step back. Yeah. And there's no way to know until it actually happens,

but I am more so in the camp that I think Al-Tuvé is getting closer towards that. I'm trying to remember how much where Goldschmidt was going in drafts last year. I honestly can't remember. Was he still a first rounder?

I think he was more of a second rounder, but I can pull it up for you. The discount wasn't as much as we're seeing for Al Tufei. All right. Can't pull it up right now. But I think he was probably a second or third round pick for Goldschmidt,

and now he's going in that six, seventh round range. But yeah, I'm down on a whole. Jose Altuvae. Scott, give me another another one of your bus here for 2020. Okay, so the most controversial one, I guess, is Fernando Tatis. Ooh. Oh, yeah.

You're going to anger some people there, Scott. That consensus second rounder, who I acknowledge has top five overall potential. I mean, he was a five category stud last year for the, at least for the stretches he was healthy. you know that was only 84 games so it was really only half a season though it was it was chopped up because of a couple of iL stints but like basically every performance wise every way you could be concerned about what a hitter just did like like tautis raises all the red flags basically his profile had a 410 babb which is obviously unsustainable his expected batting average according to stat casts

you know the launch angle and the quality of contact was only 259 even though he hit 317 his fly ball rate was very low he put a lot of balls on the ground which is the problem we talk about with Vladimir Guerrero a lot it didn't show up in Tatis's numbers

but like it he's really depending on an outlier home run to fly ball rate to continue to homer at that same pace and then even the stolen bases like middle of the order bats like that, eventually stop running. Almost universally, it happens.

No matter how fast they are, they just stop running because it's not a priority for them. It's not something their team really is asking them to do. And 13 of his steals came in his first 49 games. Three came in his final 35. And he was only three for six in those final 35. He strikes out a ton. It just seems like he could take a step back, Tatees could, in so many ways that, you know, he ends up falling outside of the top 12 shortstops and is still usable.

I don't think it's going to be a situation where you're dropping him, but falling well short of second round status, I could absolutely see that for Tatis. Yeah, I mean, this is a tough one. And I've said this before, you know, regarding Javier Baez. I think that there are some players that are just so talented that they can outperform what is expected of them or what the underlying numbers say of them. I agree it's a big price tag to pay.

Second round pick. His ADP, according to fantasy pros, is 18.6. So he's going smack daddy in the middle of the second round. More so in Roto leagues, in Points Leagues, he's three-four turn. You can usually see Tatees. So, Scott, let me ask you, in a Roto league, where would you feel comfortable taking Tatez? You know, how many, what player range?

How many guys would have to be off the board? Is it after Rendon, J.D. Martinez? is he closer to the Bryce Harper group? Where would you feel comfortable taking Tatis? Or would you just completely skip him over? Well, what makes it tricky is you specifying it's a Roto League. And there are just, there's a finite number of players who can contribute to stolen bases. And the ones who could contribute to stolen bases without holding you back in other categories,

they all go early. So, like, that's just, that's, that's, that's an, unusual category need that you kind of just have to hold your nose and fill, even if you don't really like the player overall. So acknowledging that, I'm probably, if Tate's last to my third pick, I'm probably not letting him slip past me. But I would be holding my nose and taking him there. I would not be taking him with great confidence even a round later than he typically goes. So it has to be the third round for you in Roto? And it's never happened yet.

Yeah. It's just, it's not going to happen. The ADP is 18.6. I haven't seen them last until the third round. But in a points league, this is actually a useful tool. If you go on CBSports.com, you can sort ADP by either head-to-head or roto.

His ADP in a head-to-head league is 52.9, Scott. That is just, I mean, come on. We're going too far the other way. I understand he's a near 30% strikeout guy, but he still averaged 3.8,000. fantasy points per game last year, which was tied for a second with Trey Turner and Marcus Semyon. So you're getting this guy

sometimes in the fifth round of a points league. Yeah, I think at that point you have to take a chance on the upside. You have to take a shot at it. And I think that is one scenario where I have drafted Tatis this year in a head-to-head points league where people just said, oh, this is a roto guy. I want nothing to do with him. And he lasts to round five and may have even been round six. Yeah, that's going too far with it.

All right, Scott, I have a name for you that I think is quite similar to Fernando Tatsis. And I have him as a bust, more so because of the ADP. And he could, I realize he can make me look stupid very easily. But that is Boba Chet. And I've said it before. I'm going to stick to my guns. I think that he is a very talented player. And eventually, you know, maybe he'll turn into a first, second round pick for fantasy purposes.

But in July, the NFBC, his ADP is 47, Scott. 47. We're talking about a borderline fourth, fifth round pick now for Boba Chet continues to climb. I think people just fall in love with some of these younger players

and the prospect pedigree that they have. But you can get Tim Anderson and Marcus Semyon almost 50 picks later. In a roto league, I would rather have Tim Anderson straight up in a vacuum over Boba Chet. In a points league,

I would rather have Marcus Semyon over Boba Chet in a vacuum. If you like Correa, He goes 60 picks later. If you like Corey Seeger, he goes almost 100, almost 100 picks later for Corey Seeger, according to the NFBC ADP in the month of July. So, Scott, just the price tag, I'm priced out on Boba Shet. I won't have any shares. I wonder how much of that is unique to NFBC.

NFBC ADP is the only one that you get breakdown by certain segments of time. So we're kind of, you know, if we're looking to isolate, you know, restart draft value. we're just stuck with their data. And, you know, sometimes in FBC, it can be skewed just like any other, just like any other data source. So, you know, I, in our, in the mock drafts we've been conducting with people around the industry, I have yet to see Bo Bichet go in round four where that ADP shows. So I have a difficult time speaking to that.

But at the very least, it should be a close call between him. and Simeon and Correa. I don't know that I put Tim Anderson in that category myself. Only in Roto for me, not in a point-shund. Yeah. Yeah, Roto, I mean, you could obviously justify it more, but it's asking him to be his best in batting average and stolen bases. Yeah, I mean, if it's truly, if it's truly 46th for Bichette,

I can't argue against you there. his cumulative ADP Yeah, 67. According to Fantasy Pros, is 66. Which is still kind of high, but not crazy high, I don't think. It's still, you know, his 66 versus Carlos Correa's 95th.

Okay, give me Carlos Correa. But I don't know. I don't go as far with Bichetta's to call him a bust. He just, I might just call him overrated. So in our head-to-head categories mock that we did on Tuesday, Bo Bichette went 46th overall, Scott.

And which one? In our head-to-head categories mock draft that we did. He went 46th to... Okay, I stand corrected. To beat Don of Razball. Who typically does go in the direction of prospects and younger players, but... Yeah, he does have a tendency to do that, but it would be interesting to see what would happen if he wasn't in that draft.

Was it just him, or was... Is everybody who plays on NFBC? Is he like the standard thinking now? Yeah. Look, fourth round definitely can't do it. Even the sixth round, again, I think the value you can get, especially in a points league, if you just wait for Seeger or Corre, I just,

I don't think he's, I don't think Bobeshet's going to completely bottom out, but I do think that he is overvalued. Scott, rattle off a few more names to me here that you have in some of your bus columns for this season. Josh Hater, I'm just not confident he's going to get even, you know, three quarters of the brewer saves now that Corey Kinebel is back and ready to go on opening day. It might be a 50-50 split between the two. It might be Kinebel getting 75% of the brewer's saves.

Josh Hader would still have value in that scenario because in terms of percentages, he's the best reliever. But obviously wouldn't be the most valuable reliever in fantasy anymore. Vladimir Guerrero, I mentioned it a couple times. I think people are painting a rosy picture there with him, just especially given how deep the hitter pool is this year, like how you can get one of last year's MVP finalist, Marcus Simeon in round eight or nine,

to invest a fifth round pick in Vladimir Guerrero, who had a 7772 OPS and his 464 at Bats last year. really high ground ball rate that's not going to allow him to hit for power. If it continues, obviously he could take a huge step forward this year, but the caliber of player you're passing up at the point he goes just isn't worth that. I think it's similar to Bichette. I think, you know, our mindset for Vlad and Bichet there is kind of similar. But Bichet was legitimately great after he got called up last year. Smaller sample, but yeah. Fringy. I mean, Guerrero was borderline. unstartable after getting called up, at least from a 12-team context.

A couple guys who were bad last year, but I don't think they're being downgraded enough because I think I think I don't have a lot of much hope of them getting, I don't have much hope of them getting better. Are Andrew Benintendi and Reese Hoskins? Reese Hoskins hit the Reese Hoskins. The Reese Hoskins hits me right in the heart, Scott. have 198 over the final four months last year. And, you know, makes free contact, puts the ball in the air a ton.

He's going to be a low, it's going to be a low babit profile for him. And maybe not with enough power to justify the hit and batting average. Let me see here. Yeah, I mean, I have Jonathan and V.R. and Alberto Mondesi on this list, because I don't trust them as hitters at all, and you have to pay a lot for them. But it's kind of what I was saying about Tatis,

where if you want to not have a problem in steals, you kind of just have to hold your nose and take them where they go, because that's one thing you can count them on Mondecy and VR to do, is run. In the end, at the end of the year, will you look back and say they were worth the investment you made in them, Maybe not. Maybe not. But we're just held hostage by the stolen base in landscape right now because there's just so few players who can contribute to them. And it counts for 20% of your team's offensive production in a 5x5 league. So that's where we are with that.

Yeah. And Roto, I've said this already. I mean, I want one of Turner or Adelberto Monassi. Monassi, the first 60 games last season led baseball on seals. He had 22 steals and he was hitting 280s. So if he can stay healthy for 60 games, there's a chance that he could lead the league in stolen bases. Again, that is Mondesie, but there is bottom out potential I get it because of the lack of plate discipline. I think he's a sub-300 OBP player for his career. So there definitely is some bottom-out potential

for Adelberto Monashy. Another royal, I'll give you, Scott, Whitmerfield. And I think I'm confident in the batting average. He hits a lot of line drives. I think that'll still be there. but the fact that he is 31 years old and his steals were more than cut in half from 2018 to 2019,

he went from 45 to 20. He only went 20 for 30 on the base paths last year. 10 caught stealing. So I could see the speed taking a little bit of a step back. And I also wonder, under Mike Mathini, will the stolen bases come down a little bit? Because while Mathini was with the Cardinals,

I believe it was 2012 through 2018, they never ranked higher than 17th in steals. So I worry about that for Mary Feast. field, he's getting up there and age. And I agree with you on Hater, especially in a points league. Adam brings this up all the time. Last year, he was the number one closer in points leagues. But he was only 27, only had 27 more fantasy points than Will Smith, who was the second

best closer. Is that worth a fifth round price tag in a points league? I don't think so. No. I agree with you there. In a points league. Drafting closers is a different process in a points league. It may not.

The ADP may not show it, but like it should be. To be in that format, the top closers are never worth paying up for. Scott, we can't have a bus show without me mentioning Trevor Bauer at least once. So I feel like we've talked about Trevor Bauer all week long. And I posed this question yesterday to, and I believe Adam kind of spoke out against it. I said, what's more likely? Trevor Bauer returns second round value or is on the waiver wire by mid-August? And he said, no, there's no way he'll be on the waiver wire by mid-August.

Well, Scott, I put up a Twitter poll yesterday. and only 54% said it's more likely that he returns second round value, which is actually, I thought the poll was a lot closer than it actually would be. So there are a lot of other people out there who doubt Trevor Bauer as well. I think he's one of those players that completely has bottom out potential. He's the 21st starting pitcher off the board in NFBC this month. You can get Robbie Ray 80 picks later. I just, I don't see why you wouldn't do that.

So I'm on record anti- Trevor Bauer. I mean, Trevor Bauer had the fifth most strikeouts in baseball last year. In terms of workload, it's no contest between him and Robbie Ray. Robbie Ray's inefficient and is never going to give you the innings. Like, basically, Robbie Ray's expected outcome is Trevor Bauer's downside, I feel like. And yet Bauer is still going to throw more innings in that downside scenario. So I don't agree with that comparison at all. I'm kind of a downer on Robbie Ray maybe,

but I've seen enough of him to know who he is. And it's a guy who excels at one thing, but in a way he can't even take full advantage of just because he doesn't pitch deep into games. Well, Scott, what if I told you, if you put their career side by side, Robbie Ray, 4.11 ERA-135 whip, over 11Ks per 9,

Trevor Bauer 404 ERA 130 130 whip 9 and a half case per night I would say you weren't listening to me Frank because I was talking about innings I wasn't talking about ratios But in a shortened season that should favor Robbie Ray no I mean that should help him in a shortened season no I feel like the season's kind of made for Robbie Ray I don't think it's going to change how often he goes 6 plus

which isn't very often and it's really hard to win that way You know, it's possible the season is so short that wins are going to be so arbitrary anyway. Because what's the league leader going to have, like five? And, you know, that's going to be hard to, and it's going to be more than five, I guess, right? Because it's more than a third of a regular season. Yeah, you might get six or seven. Yeah, if you're lucky. I mean, somebody could sneak in like an eight or nine win season.

I think that's possible just because the pace is not going to be, like the pace could be exaggerated in a 60 game stretch. But whatever, I'm getting off track here now. I don't think, I mean, we know Trevor Bowers' upside is much greater than Robbie Ray. Anybody else you want to mention, Scott? Honorable mentions here? Honorable mentions. There are two players that I'm reluctant.

to draft for health reasons and because the price tag is very high and those two are blake snell and erin judge i think in both cases i mean judge now is going 55th overall like that doesn't seem so bad to me does it to you that's a fifth round that's a fifth round i mean you're kind of a downer on judge too yeah at what point do you start thinking about taking it sixth or seventh so we're not far off Yeah, probably more so seventh. It's realistic that you could find him lasting until 10. Yeah, Adam brings it up all the time. He got him 92nd, I think, in a mock draft we did a couple of weeks ago.

Yeah, if he lasted at that point, yeah, I could get behind that. I still see him as the best potential home run source in the game. Obviously, he has to stay on the field. The stress fracture in his rib that dates back to last fall, and he wasn't recovered from it in February. I mean, that's the tricky injury that, you know, we're not really going to know if he's over it until he gets back to full activity.

But he's been swinging about for a while now and there's been no talk of it being an issue. They seem confident he's going to be ready for opening day. So I'm wondering if, I'm wondering now if the community as a whole is overrating the risk there. Yeah, and that's what we talked about at the top, Scott, where if it gets to a point where it's going too far the other way, then there's profit potential.

I know that that's something you did with Clayton Kershaw last year. I was just going to say that. Yeah, like I had Clayton Kershaw on my bust list when he was a third or fourth rounder, but suddenly he hurts his shoulder in spring training, and he's going in the seventh round. And I'm like, all right, you know, this doesn't sound like a long-term issue. It sounds like he might miss a couple weeks at the beginning of the season. and then, you know, everything I was so scared of with him,

it doesn't look so bad in round seven versus round three. I got a lot of Clayton Kirshan, he had a great season. So I could see that happening with Judge. Snell, um, Snell doesn't fall like that. No, he doesn't. He's still going consistently, at least in the fourth round? Yeah.

And, you know, he had elbow surgery at the end of last year. He had a cortisone shot in the same elbow this spring. It sounds like he's fine now, but it's hard to tell. And like my concerns with Snell go beyond just the elbow, because he has efficiency issues to even when he won the Siong two years ago. It was with few innings for a Scy Young winner. He doesn't go six with great consistency. And like he needed a 189 ERA to be that good two years ago.

And like that's just unrealistic no matter how you, no matter how you slice it up. So, yeah, I'd rather avoid Snow, personally. Shout out to Pete Alonzo and Liam Hendricks. I know if Chris were here, he would probably have those two as his top bust. Pete Alonzo, it's just, it's hard for a power-only source, really, to live up to expectations going into third round. So it's a big price tag.

No one's doubting the talent. I think he's still going to hit a ton of home runs this season. But I've said, I think if him and Sinoa stay healthy for 60 games, I don't think that their numbers will really be all that dissimilar. And you get to know like 80, 90 picks later than Pete Alonzo. And then Liam Hendricks, he needs a lot to go right. The velocity was up last year, the strikeouts, swinging strike rate, all career high.

He was at mid-career breakout. Scott, he's one of those mid-career breakouts that you don't really endorse as much as like the Marcus Simeon types. I think Chris's points with Liam Hendricks are, well, founded, but I don't really share his negativity for Hendricks specifically because I think there's so much volatility at relief pitcher anyway. And, you know, Hendrix isn't the second guy off the board there like Blake Trinen was last year.

He's, you know, he's top 10, but he's a seventh relief pitcher off the board. Right. But who do you feel great about that's going after him? Who do you feel totally secure about after that? It's, I would say nobody. I mean, you're getting into guys like Craig Kimberl, who was horrible last year, and I think it's been horrible in both spring training and summer camp.

Well, you know who I'm going to say, Scott. Edwin Diaz, we don't know exactly if he's going to have a role. Ken Giles, 25 takes later. Ken Giles. Yeah, okay, I mean, Ken Giles, if you'd rather have Ken Giles than Liam Hendricks, that's one. But my point is, like,

where Hendricks goes, he doesn't stand out is especially risky to me. All closers are risky. And, you know, he was the only one that came close to Josh Hader in strikeouts last year. So that should count for a little. All right, Scott. We have to wrap it up with this.

Our final bust question of the day. What is a popular TV show that you consider a bust? Come on, ruffle some feathers here, Scott. Ruffle some feathers. So we talked about the wire. Before the show started. Yes.

Did I just steal your thunder here? I mean, I probably need to give the wire more of a chance. Yeah, you watched half a season. So that's not fair. It didn't stand out to me. Like a multi-season show is a novel. And so if you drop out in the middle of the first season, you're dropping out, you know,

20 pages into a novel, which is just ridiculous. I know. I get mad at people who stopped watching Breaking Bad halfway through the first season. So I have to give the wire the same justice. I didn't love the wire. I liked it. I was, you know, I watched the whole thing.

I don't regret the time I spent watching it. I don't quite share the same enthusiasm for it. I didn't. There wasn't a lot of characters to like in the wire, I feel like. I wasn't, there wasn't a lot to get emotionally invested in. There wasn't a lot, you know, when an episode ended, like, oh, I got to find out what happens next. There wasn't a lot of that in that show. It took, you know, it was, it was interesting.

It addressed some serious subject matter. I think it addressed it well. But from a pure entertainment standpoint, I don't think it lives up to its reputation, personally. Band of Brothers, the HBO miniseries. It's well made. Again, I didn't find it especially entertaining. It kind of, in 10 episodes long, it's a mini series. I kind of felt like it was a homework assignment getting all the way through it.

I was excited to watch it after watching Chernobyl, because I thought Chernobyl was fantastic and like, oh, everybody's comparing it to Band of Brothers. Let's check that out. And, yeah, some big names in it. Jimmy Fallon randomly shows up halfway through, delivering some. some supplies that that was interesting you know Ross Geller as a drill sergeant what's that about that was interesting but you know I just you know just didn't really do it for me and then another one

an anime series actually cowboy bebop you ever seen that cowboy no I haven't I've watched some anime but I have not seen that you're big anime guys I'm not somebody who's like fully immersed in the anime world. I of course love Death Note. That's my text tone that plays often on the show. I've heard great things. I should watch it. Yeah. Cowboy Bebop was was not doing it for me. I don't even really know why. I'm not. I forced my way all the way through it. So I can't say that I didn't give it a chance, but it just it just didn't grab me the way, the way it has so many others. Well, now that we've lost half of our audience

who enjoys the Wire, Band of Brothers, and Cowboy Bebop, I want to remind you to join our Fantasy Baseball Today, Facebook group. Lots of interactions, intriguing questions, Q&A with Scott White, of course. Fantasy Baseball Today, again, Facebook.com slash group slash fantasy baseball today. Also, if you're a fan of this podcast, of course, why not? That's why you're listening.

That's why you're watching. We're not asking you to tell the world, but if you could, just tell one person, one friend about the podcast and why you like it. We'd greatly appreciate it. All right, we're going to take a break there. When we come back, we're going to talk about some news and notes, the latest here in the world of fantasy baseball and answer your questions. All right, we're back here, fantasy baseball today. The latest news and notes, Scott, Jacob de Grom's MRI on his back came back clean. He's day-to-day.

It is currently unknown when he will throw again. I think we're just kind of waiting for more news to come out. I don't think I'm going to avoid him in drafts. This is obviously worrisome, but I don't think he's really going to fall out of the first round. I can't see that happening. Well, just since we started recording here, there's been a report from Tim Britton.

All right, what you got? Jacob de Grom says he feels good. He would like to throw 60 to 65 pitches. Sunday night and then be ready to throw 85 on opening day. That's his hope. It's not a guarantee, but it's encouraging, I would say. I'm not planning on moving them down. I am with you there, Scott. The athletics pitching coach Scott Emerson told reporters on Wednesday that Jesus Lazzardo, who tested positive for COVID, could be limited upon his return to the mound. This one I'm a little bit more worried about. And it's just another guy. I mean, he can't catch a break. Last year was

supposed to be the breakout. He gets hurt with the, I believe it was a trap injury, you know, during spring training. And then now with COVID, at what point are you, do you feel comfortable taking Hazers-Lazardo now, Scott? Do you have the NFBC, uh, recent ADP handy for him? Yes. And he is going in July, pick 100, right around James Paxton, Corey Klooper. So he's actually moved up. He's just, There was a while where we were excited about the prospect of him in a short season because he wouldn't get shut down. His cute to the past... He's actually 1.15.

I'll limit it to the past week, Scott, and see where he's at. And it is 110. So in the past week, he's dropped 10 spots. But not significantly. He's going right around Lance Lynn, just ahead of Lynn, Mike Soroka, Carlos Carrasco, Julio Rius, Zach Dallon. It's a little too high for me. I don't think it's crazy. I have a lot of confidence in the skills.

And, you know, he may just be helping you in ERA and whip those first couple turns. But, you know, eventually he's going, his third or fourth turn, he's going to be somebody who's throwing between five and six innings, I'm sure, and having a chance to win a game for you, hopefully with eight or nine strikeouts, you know. So you get, you get far past that group of starting pitchers and you're getting in. to some really iffy types in terms of what they're actually providing for you. So I don't, I don't, I saw on Twitter last night, Chris was saying he added Jesus Lazzardo to his bus list.

I wouldn't go that far. I think he's being slightly overvalued now, given the likelihood his first couple turns will be limited, but I don't think he's, I'm not ready to just pass him up altogether. Scott, would you rather have Lazzardo or Rich Hill? Rich Hill.

Rich Hill is going 171 over the past week and Lozardo's going 110. So... That needs to change. That does need to change indeed. Miguel Snow has been clear to rejoin the Twins and DJ LaMayhew

is slated to return to the Yankees quote this week. I want to say it's all systems go but I think this is something to monitor for now, especially kind of given what happened with Charlie Blackman. We did get an update where

I actually told, tweeted at a at a beatwriter for the for the Rockies Thomas Harding. I just asked him, was like, hey, what's going on with Blackman? And he said the Rockies last night and manager Bud Black this morning

explained that this is a procedural move and it does not prevent him from opening the season on the active roster. So I think you monitor the situations, but I think it's, I think we're close to all systems go. Blackman, Sano, and D.J. LeMayhe.

What do you think, Scott? Yeah, I still think there's a chance they're all not ready, but it won't be long if they aren't, and they may very well be. So that's encouraging. It's encouraging. Obviously, if you're looking to draft them, it's encouraging, I think, for future instances that may come up.

But, you know, yeah, I think they're basically back to full value. And you've had good luck with that. You've had good luck with just approaching beat writers and saying, hey, what's going on? They don't always... I think it's a checkmark. I think the check mark is helping me out nowadays. I have a check mark too.

Is the check mark a new thing for you? It is. Yeah, I have a check mark too. Maybe I don't ask nicely enough. I don't know. Maybe not. What's next? Willie Calhoun has been diagnosed

with a grade one hip flexor strain. Looks doubtful for opening day. They said that Nick Solac will play left field in the meantime. and Nick Solac, someone we were excited about here, Scott, but Willie Calhoun is going to be back. I would say what happens with Solac is, if he plays well the first week or so,

a couple of weeks while Willie Calhoun is out, I think that they will find a way to get his bat in the lineup. I don't know what way that is going to be. Maybe they move Solac to third, kind of for Leffeta first, or they play Solac at first base. I think they get creative with it, but if Solac hits, I don't think he leaves from the lineup.

Yeah, well, he's probably, I would guess he'd Phil a super. utility role, which is more or less playing every day. I mean, maybe five days a week. He's in the lineup at one position or another. I kind of feel like that was going to happen anyway. Maybe it'll happen. Maybe it'll go from being four games to five games a week

if he does get off to a good start, like you said. But that's how I see this unfolding with Solac. And of course, if anybody else gets hurt or test positive has to leave the team, then Solac. is going to have another spot to play every day. He's going to play plenty this year. Nick So-Lak last year hit 32 home runs and seven, had seven steals between the minors and the majors.

He has flashed a plus hit tool in the minors as well, a 294 batting average and an 850 OPS in his minor league career. I mentioned the name, Isaiah Kinear-Flefa. Scott, just give yourself a pat on the back, man, because you've been spot on with this from the get-go. He's doing it right now. You could see it on our fantasy baseball. today, YouTube channel.

He is going to, they say right now, has the edge for the starting third base job. And with catcher eligibility, that is massive. We received this email, Scott. Let me know what you think. How high does Isaiah Kiner fluff a jump

since he plays every day? Would you move him ahead of Carson Kelly or Yadier Malina? Oh, that's going a little far, I think. You want him to be a value pick. You don't want to presume too much. because like the track record as a hitter is pretty, pretty bad, pretty bad. Like if he is still that guy with the bat,

it's not going to matter that much that he's playing every day. So, yeah, I wouldn't move him up that far. But there are reasons to be encouraged. He made a change to his stance. He's incorporating his lower body more in his swing, which is similar to the change Gio Orchella made last year. And six home runs between spring. training in summer camp kinder

Folefa has versus five in his entire major league career. It may actually be more than six. Obviously we don't have official stats for summer camp, so I'm just kind of counting on my own. But it's been a lot of home runs for a guy who we didn't think had that kind of power.

And maybe, I mean, it's worth a shot if the cost is next to nothing. If you're going to make the costs that high, then maybe it's not worth a shot. But for now, I'm still excited to take Kiner Folefa in two catcher leagues. I read that last night, Corey Klobber threw 98 pitches in an inter-squad game,

and he allowed four hits to earn runs. And two of those hits were against Isaiah Kinear Folefa, so the guy just continues to hit. I think I want to move him up, Scott, to around the Danny Jansen, Francisco Mejia range in two catcher leagues. Does that seem fair? That's how I don't have him that high in my rankings,

and I'm going to spend some time Friday getting my rankings really solid for the big. draft weekend. I know I don't have Kiner Folepha that high, but kind of mentally that's how I've been approaching him. And drafts is, okay, once Danny Jansen has gone, once Francis Gomehia is gone, then

Kiner Folepha is my priority at catcher, but I know I can wait a while. And obviously we're talking about pretty deep leagues if Jansen goes and you're still waiting a while. But yeah, that's how I've been doing it with Kinder Folef up to this point. Yeah, mostly for

two catcher leagues in Roto leagues. Byron Buckson said Wednesday that he will be ready for opening day. I don't know that I share the same level of optimism, but let's see what happens. Kestenheera was scratched Wednesday with right arm fatigue. It doesn't seem too serious, but is something to pay attention to. Speaking of the Brewers, Corbyn Burns, four perfect innings last night, seven strikeouts. Eric Lauer is still on the mend after testing positive for COVID.

Brett Anderson left his start yesterday with a blister. Scott, Corbin Burns. somebody we should be excited about. Did you give a stat line from yesterday? I know it was four innings, zero hits, zero walks, seven strikeouts. Yeah. And he was throwing 98.

His slider, I haven't heard any reports of it recently, but it was hitting 94 in spring training when it was high 80s last year. It seems like a guy who has monster potential. You know, the ERA was outrageous last year, kind of, another kind of Mitch Keller situation. So people are going to be inclined not to give Corbyn Burns a second thought.

But the minor league track record's impressive. The stuff itself is impressive. It's just got to win that spot. There's a chance he's a bullpen guy. They haven't, they haven't committed one way or another. Obviously, outings like the one he just had help his chances. But I think, I think it's at best 64. he's in the rotation right now.

And so I can't get totally on board with him as a sleeper just yet. In July, his ADP is 356. So I would say in a 12-team Roto League or anything deeper than that, your last round pick, your second of last round pick, I'm right taking a flyer on Corbyn Burns. Let's answer some of your questions. First, we'll start off with some of the Apple podcast review questions that we received. This one's from Hugo, dear Ed, Jim, Frank, Joe, and Tom.

Sounds like a bunch of common names. I'm not sure I'm going to be able to come up with some commonality for them. These are the Delahanty brothers, apparently. I think they all played in Major League Baseball at some point. Probably like way back in the day, 100 years ago or something like that. Yeah. Whatever. They're the Alloo Brothers, but not the Delahanty Brothers.

My League has done head-to-head category since it started nine years ago. This year, we're thinking of trying Roto because of the shortened season. A, would you recommend this, Scott, switching from head-to-head categories to Roto for this season? And B, what are some of the pros and cons of Roto over head-to-head-to-head? I've come all the way around on this, because originally, when we first started talking about how we would approach a short season, I was suggested maybe people do this. I think the other way makes more sense. I think head-to-head makes more sense because you're already used to segmenting the season into week-long chunks. So playing it out isn't going to feel any different than it normally does.

It's just going to end abruptly. Like the difference in feeling is going to be that players are going to perform. The players aren't going to have a chance to normalize. But that's going to be true in a Roto League anyway. And I think the end result in a Roto league, since it's all about total accumulation over a span of time, I think the end results are going to be more warped in a Roto league than a head-to-head league. So I'm not saying people who like Roto play Roto normally need to change to head-to-end.

to head, but I would not be inclined to change my head-to-head league. I would encourage your commissioner to make it multiple matchups per week, at least two, if that's a possibility. But even if it isn't, I think I would still stick to head-to-head. Do you think it might make it too convoluted in a head-to-head categories league, Scott, if you're playing double or triple-headers every week? Well, you wouldn't be able to tailor your lineup to your opponent. Like if you see, you know, sometimes in a head-to-head categories league,

you'll see your opponent is starting just one closer. And so you'll know you only need to start two or whatever. You won't be able to do that. You'll have to set one lineup for all your opponents. So there's some downside there. I think the upside is worth it. When you say convoluted, was there some other way you were thinking? I just think if you play head-to-ad categories with multiple matchups this year,

you should play weekly lineups, not daily. Oh. Well, I have a tendency to presume weekly lineups anyway. But the thing is, I think most people who play head to head categories play daily lineups, Scott. They probably do. I think that's, I kind of think of that as the Yahoo format, and I think that's the Yahoo default setting. So they probably do. It's a weak spot for me, analysis-wise, because I'm just always thinking in terms of weekly leagues. But, yeah, look, weekly leagues are,

easier for a number of reasons. That would be another. Don't change to Roto. Play head to head categories. Multiple matchups. Make the lineups weekly instead of daily for this season. This next one's from Corey. 14 team head-to-head categories, Dynasty League. I just traded Eddie Rosario and Zach Britton for Nick Castellanos. I currently have Nick Anderson, Craig Kimbril, Hector Nerris, and Alex Colomey at Closer. Grade the trade, Scott. Rosario and Britain for Castellanos. in a dynasty league?

I would give that trade an A-minus. I really like it. I think Nick Castellanos is about to take off. I don't think the dynasty context really tips the scales more one way or the other between him and Rosario. Britain's just a short-term option for saves. I think it's a big upgrade for in your outfield,

both for this year and beyond. Castellanos is only on a one-year deal with Cincinnati, though, Scott. Does that matter at all? Oh. I believe, you know, I thought he was on a, I thought he signed a multi-year deal. It might be, I think he has the ability to opt out after this year if he wants to. Oh.

Where if he has a big year, he probably will. It doesn't really change anything for me because I think even Tigers Castiano was about the same as Eddie Rosario in my eyes. Yeah. Isaac Britain just doesn't have much dynasty value unless something happens to Chapman long term, which we have no reason to believe. I would give it a, I'll give it a B plus. Okay. Emails, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. This one's from Jonathan.

I have the second pick in a 12-team head-to-head points league with five outfielders, a corner infielder, and a middle infielder. So deeper head-to-head points league lineup than we're used to. Usually a second pick is great, as I would be assured either Trout or Yelich. But with the question surrounding Trout, I really don't want him.

So if Yelich was taken out of Mookiee, Ronald Ocunae, Cody Bellinger, who would you take? Or should I take Garrett Cole? Garrett Cole is who I have ranked there in a points league specifically. Yeah, I think that's the clearer advantage you could give yourself. If you don't want to take a pitcher, Bellinger would be the first hitter up for me, but it's a close call between him and Betts and frankly Alex Bregman in a points format.

I would put him up with them. I would actually put him ahead of Ocuna in that format. But personally, I would go with Cole. Yeah, I have to make this switch. I have to move Garrett Cole up in my overall head-to-head points because I have him fifth, and I would take Garrett-Cole second overall as well, because I'm looking at the head-to-head points ADP on CBS.

I just think the hitters that you can get at the end of the second, early third round are so good to meet. Like, I'd rather have the combination of Garrett Cole and one of Bogart's or Harper or Trevor Story or J.D. Martinez. All those guys are going, you know, at that two-three turn. I'd rather have that combination with Garrett Cole than one of Bellinger or Betts

with, say, Jack Flaherty or Strasbourg. Yeah, I agree. Next question here is from Nick. With the news that Walker Bueller is behind the other Dodgers pitchers in the rotation, with only so many starts in the season, would you favor someone like Shane Bieber or Jack Flaherty over Bueller in a points league, Scott?

We spoke about Bueller a little bit yesterday, but I think that this question is actually very relevant if he's not giving you those endings early on in the season. I think it's a more reasonable question to ask should Bueller still be ahead of Bieber and Flaherty than it is to ask, does Bueller, should Bueller be ahead of Verlander and Scherzer? Not to...

This guy's taking his jabbs. I bring it up, of course, because you rank Bueller and Scherzer, but I don't think you're, the only one who does. And I think that news about Bueller, you know, just being so far behind every other pitcher and his first couple starts are really just going to be about building up again. And that's, you know, that's one sixth of his, the starts he'll be making all season, provided he stays healthy all season.

That, I'm going to give that some more thought. But it's tempting to move him behind Bieber and Flaherty. And, you know, actually maybe even further down behind Clevenger. I was thinking Clevenger too. Yeah. Clevenger was third in fantasy points per game last season at starting pitcher. So he's great in that format. There's no doubt about it.

I think it's something I have to consider as well in a points league. I think I'm going to move him behind Bieber and Clevenger. So that would put Bueller at seven for me in a points league. And then in Roto, yes, I'm going to move him behind Scherzer and Verlander, obviously. but I don't think I'm going to move them lower than that. So I'm going to drop them to five in road. I'm going to drop them to seven in a head-to-head points league. All right, Scott, sleepers, breakouts, busts.

We're done. Tomorrow we're going to have a live head-to-head points mock draft on the show with you, the listeners. It's going to be Scott. It's going to be here. Chris is going to be here. Adam's going to be here. And we will also announce the winners for our listener leagues.

Thank you all again for sending those in. They have been absolutely fantastic. For Scott White, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching on the Fantasy Base. call today YouTube channel. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.