Fantasy Baseball Today - Buy Low on Francisco Lindor? Early 2022 Shortstop Rankings! (10/26 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 26, 2021

HOORAY! Our Atlanta Braves made the World Series (1:00)! ... News and notes (5:20): Rafael Devers won't need surgery on his elbow and the Cardinals plan to try Jordan Hicks out as a starter. ... Who were the top five shortstops in 2021 (11:20)? How early should you draft Bo Bichette and Trea Turner? ... What about top-10 shortstops (26:33)? Where do we draft Trevor Story if he leaves the Rockies? ... Let's move on to Scott's 2022 shortstop rankings (42:55)! How early will Wander Franco be drafted? Should you buy-low on Francisco Lindor? ... Who's an early target and avoid for each of us at the position (58:55)?  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Centerfield is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Six players went for 25 homers and 25 steals this past season. Three of those came from shortstop eligible players. Welcome into fantasy baseball today. on Tuesday, October 26th, Frank Stamphill, joined by a jubilant Scott White. Today on the podcast, we're going to recap the shortstop position, take a look at the top 10, what went wrong for a few names, Francis Gwendoor, and then we'll dissect Scottie's top 20 rankings for 2022. But who cares about shortstop right now?

We did it, Scotty. The Braves have won the National League pennant and are moving on to the World Series. How we feel is. What's his wee business? Oh, we, come on. man we do a podcast together we could share a team serious bandwagoning going on here from the guy with derogger on the wall behind him but that's fine that's fine i'm happy i'm happy to have you on my side frank on on our side dare i say we're all we're all brave's fans now scotty we're all

brave fans now yeah no i mean it was emotional frank i'm not going to lie i'm not going to lie like to the point that there's almost this feeling that it's already been accomplished, you know. And I even got that sense from Brian Snitker on the podium afterward where he's like, we did it Atlanta. And it's like, well, you did something major, but there's still something else to do, you know. I worry a little bit about the happy to be their mindset, you know, from myself too. It's as much as I contribute to the cause, of course, by sitting on my couch. So, you know, there's a little bit of that feeling, but like, man, it felt so good, Frank.

I'm not going to lie. There were, I was a little teary-eyed. Gotta be honest. Well, hey, man. When Freddie Freeman caught that last ball and threw his arms up in the air, because year after year, you watch everybody else's guys do that, right? And to see your own guys do that, it's like, wow. Especially Freddie Freeman, right?

Of course. He like represents this era of the Atlanta Braves, right? Really the past decade or so. So it's awesome there. I'm happy for you. Definitely rooting for the Atlanta Braves. For the betting audience out there, the Braves are plus 130 underdogs to win the World Series.

The Houston Astros are minus 150. So I might throw a few shekels on that myself. On the Braves, that is, of course. Not on the Houston Astros. No Lance McCuller is expected to pitch in the World Series. Game one looks like it's going to be Framber Valdez going up against Charlie Morton. My man, Charlie Morton, let's go. Let's get it done in game one.

Scott, do you have an official World Series prediction? Oh, gosh. I'm not going to predict the Braves to lose, Frank. I think it's reasonable to call the Astros the favorites. You gave the betting odds just then. I mean, that's reasonable. I think it was reasonable to call the Dodgers the favorites. I think the Astros, I think the Dodgers were a tougher test than the Astros.

So I think the Braves have in a way proven they can beat the Astros because they've already beaten the Dodgers. That doesn't mean they're likely to beat the Astros. I do kind of take exception to this idea I've heard a few times. So the Braves were the team that got hot in the playoffs and that's why they're in the World Series. And I understand where it comes from because you're just looking at the fact they won 88 games during the regular season. But they had, you know, things played out so oddly over those first four months where they were hovering right under 500 that there was only so much ground they could make up at the end once their outfield situation got resolved. From August 1st on, the Braves went 36 and 19. That's a 655 winning percentage.

And they've obviously done well in the playoffs. And you look at their run differential. I mean, it wasn't that far behind the White Sox run differential for the season. So I just wanted to put that out there. But I've delayed long enough. I'm going to say the Braves win in six. Oof. All right.

I'll say that the series goes one game longer. I will take the Braves in seven games. And they're doing this all without Ronald de Cuneo, right? Their best player, one of the best players in baseball. And I've got to give credit to the Houston Astros, right? Like, for our Astros fan audience out there that is listening or watching, I gotta give credit where it's due, right? Like, whole cheating scandal, they came back this year,

they handled their business, they win the division, they dominate in the playoffs, and they're back here again, ready to prove everybody wrong. So we'll see if they can actually do that, but yeah, I think it's gonna be fun for sure. Let's go Braves, let's do it. We finally did it, baby. News and notes, before we get into the shortstop position,

Rafael Devers was dealing with an arm issue throughout the playoffs, and apparently it's just merely, elbow inflammation and will not require any surgery. So hopefully that remains the case. We'll see what happens. But yeah, Devers expects to be maybe a second round pick, maybe an early third round pick for next year. So obviously we need him healthy in order to draft him that early.

Jordan Hicks concluded a rehab stint at the Arizona Fall League on Sunday and is expected to compete for a spot in the rotation during spring training with the Cardinals next year, which is pretty intriguing because he really has not pitched at all over the past two years, and now they're going to try and put him in the rotation. So obviously there's going to be restrictions. He was mostly a starter in the minor leagues.

He had a 304 ERA 140 whip, so walks were always an issue. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts for someone that throws that hard. But he pitched in 37 games in the minors. 34 of those were starts. So maybe like a real deep sleeper for next year, Scottie. I don't know. Yeah, I would say it's a long shot,

because we already know they want Alex Reyes to compete for a rotation spot, and I imagine he'll have a leg up there, not like the Cardinals pitching staff is loaded with musts for the rotation, you know. But they're going to have Wainwright for one more year, right? Oh, yeah. And Jack Flaherty, of course. Beyond that, is pretty wide open, right? Is there somebody I'm forgetting?

Let's see. They have... Oh, shit. Well, Dakota Hudson. Dakota Hudson's healthy again. I imagine he'll be slotted in. I just pulled up their roster resources. This is not good, man.

We got Miles Michaelis, Dakota Hudson, and Jake Woodford, who made a few starts down the stretch, which, you know, he actually pitched well, but the underlying skills are not very intriguing. You know, I want to see what they do with... So Michaelis is probably penciled in. So we're really just talking about one spot up for grabs. if everybody's healthy, which is a big if, of course.

I don't want to see what they do with Alex Reyes too, right? So, you know, he struggled, mid-season, gets pulled from the closer roll. And, you know, he was a setup man down the stretch, but walks were clearly an issue. Maybe they don't view him as a starting candidate anymore in the rotation, but he still has great stuff. It's just, it's always the walks. So maybe those two guys, like, work in tandem somehow, you know, Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks. It doesn't seem like either one of them is suited for, you know, this huge innings jump. in 2022. I am definitely more excited about the prospect of Alex Ray is starting. For sure.

Because I feel like, I feel like if Jordan Hicks does win a rotation spot, he would be a pretty marginal fantasy option. And you'd rather root for him to win a closer job, though. I kind of hope they just stick with Giovanni Gallegos for that role. So yeah, I mean, that's your guy. You've been waiting years. And he finally looked good when he was in the role of this season. Well, he's always good. It's just he never had the closer role. Speaking of the car, They hired Oliver Marmol as their new manager. He was their bench coach for the past two years and is just 35 years old. If he's not the youngest manager in baseball, he is definitely close to it.

So we'll see if he can live up to what Mike Schilt has done the past couple of years with St. Louis. Corey Seeger told reporters that he would love to return to the Dodgers when he becomes a free agent this offseason. We know that there are a bunch of awesome short stops available. Seeger, Carlos Correa, who's competing in the World Series. Trevor Story, Javier Baez. It is the best possible group of short stops that you can imagine hitting free agency all at the same time. We could see some musical chairs.

Marcus Semyon as well. So, I mean, there's already been rumors that, like, the Yankees are going to be interested potentially in a shortstop. We'll see what happens there. But the Tigers, another name out there, who they turned it around. I did not realize how much they turned it around, Scott.

Like, they won 79 games this year. The last full season, season they played was 2019, obviously. They won 47 games. That is a 32 game improvement over two seasons. Obviously,

no, AJ Hinch has a lot to do with that. But, you know, they've been linked to Carlos Correa. Obviously, he has a history with him. So,

we'll see. I mean, I think the Tigers are the pick for breakthrough team next year. Unless you, I mean, the Mariners will be there, too.

If they haven't already broken through, obviously they were in the playoff race right till the end. But I think the tiger The Tigers are certainly the White Sox biggest threat going forward, I think. I think that they can make a push just next year for the American League wildcard. I think they could be in that mix, especially if they call up Spencer Torkelson.

They have Riley Green, two great prospects that we're probably going to see debut at some point in 2022. Bob Clapish of the Newark Star Ledger hears from, quote, a family member that Anthony Rizzo is eager to stay with the Yankees. He's a free agent. Luke Voigt has dealt with a lot of injuries the past couple of years, so that is obviously up in the air right now for the Yankees. Spencer Torkelson's sprained ankle will rule him out for the remainder of the Arizona Fall League. He was the number one overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft.

And just mention him, we probably see him at some point next season. Before we get to the shortstop position, we have our buddy Chris Welsh, aka the Welsh, joining us this Wednesday night. We're going to record it and that'll be the Thursday podcast that we release. Talking all things prospects from this past year, risers, followers, players of note out of the Arizona Fall League. Obviously, the Welsh resides in Arizona.

So he is following the Arizona Fall League very closely. We'll see what he has to say about players who are performing well. They're excited to do so. And the next week we'll focus all on outfield. The week after that will be all starting pitcher. But for today, the shortstop. stop position. Year in review, the same that we've done for every other position. We'll look at the top 10 in Roto, and then we'll move on to the 222 ranks. But let's start up top. The number

one shortstop this past season was Bo Bichette, 298 batting average, 29 homers, 121 run scored, 102 RBI, 25 steals. He was the number two overall player in Roto, five by five Roto this past season, and he was one of six hitters to go 25-25. this past season. He's a unique player, Scott. It finishes as the number two overall player in Roto, but his 828 OPS ranked 44th among qualified hitters this past season. So he doesn't walk all that much. He makes a good amount of contact, but power is there, obviously can run a little bit. What do you think of Bobichette's 2021 campaign? I think he had a lot to prove entering 2021. obviously he was a big prospect when he debuted as a, I believe it was a 21-year-old still.

Yeah, in 2019 when he debuted. But he played only 46 games that year. And then last year, in what was only a 60-game season, of course, he played just 29 games. So, you know, people were drafting him in the second round, typically, despite him having played only 75 career games in the majors. And certainly what he did in those 75 games, you could make the kids. it was deserving of a second round pick, but 75 games is not a lot to go on because it was split between two years.

I think people were a little more trusting of it. But, you know, basically he was the exact same player this year, just over 159 games. So there's really nothing to doubt about Bo Bichette anymore. I think most notably he stole 25 bases, and that was a part of his. his skill set that I wasn't really sure was going to be something we could count on. He was 8 for 13 and stolen bases as a major leaguer in those 75 games before this year.

He went 25 for 26 this year. So, okay, yeah, it looks like he's going to be a pretty good source of steals. In which case, you don't care that much that is on-base skills are suspect in that, you know, maybe he doesn't have quite the power potential of, the typical first round bat. You know, still had 29 home runs, but slugged less than 500. So, yeah, I think, you know,

when we talked about it right when the season ended, I was kind of not so sure I like the idea of drafting Bo Bichet in the first round. But, you know, now having had a chance to look at it more closely, I do think he's a late first rounder in Roto leagues where obviously the steals are something you have to sell out pretty hard for

because of the on-base issue and not walking that much. Probably more like a late second rounder in points leagues, I would say. But I have him as the number three shortstop in both formats. All right. With Bobauchet, you mentioned the power was a little

underwhelming 29 homers and where the slugging percentage wound up this year. He turns 24 in March and I actually think, look, if you're just factoring in a player that's just like

progressing and the fact that he has a great home park to hit in, a great division of parks to hit in, and the fact that his ground ball rate was 49% this past year, it was 42.6% in his first 75 games over 2019 and 2020.

So if he brings that ground ball rate down, then I think we could see even more powers. So, you know, take a page out of Vlad's book. Sure. Let's raise that launch angle a little bit. And if that happens, we could be looking at 35 homers, 20 to 25 steals, and that would certainly return first round value.

It's also worth pointing out that a big reason he was the number two player overall, which I'm surprised hearing that. But a big reason that happened in Rotow leagues is 121 runs, which, you know, obviously he plays in a great lineup. So I don't. see that changing next year even if Marcus Simeon is gone. Number two was number two. Trey Turner, 328 batting average, 28 homers, 107 runs scored, 32 steals.

He was the second of the six hitters to go 25, 25 this past season, finishes as the number three overall player in a five-by-five roto. And we mentioned this either right after the season ended or towards the end of the season, consistency. He hit over 300 each month of the season. So that is just awesome. Whether you play in Roto or head-to-head points, especially in any type of head-to-head format to have that kind of consistency. Week in, week in, week out, month in, month out. That is awesome to see from Trey Turner. The power up a little bit the past couple of years. The speed has taken a little bit of a step back. We had Matt Williams on last week. And he said as of now, you know, without knowing exactly what's

happening with Tatee and Acuna, that Trey Turner is his very. 101 overall in in roto formats. You don't go that high, Scott, but I'm sure you're fine with him as a mid-first rounder. Well, why not Bichette? Bichette finished higher than him this year. Ooh. No, I wouldn't take Bichette over Turner either, but yeah, no, I am going to give Tateis and Acuna the benefit of the doubt until there's a real reason not to.

you know, Tatease, man, I think he missed only about 20 games because of the shoulder issue. He spent some time on the COVID-I-L-L-2, but I think it was only about 20 games that he missed because of the shoulder issue. And obviously, he was awesome, right? MVP caliber. And the shoulder issue first came up in spring training. So he was playing through it that whole time. You know, I don't really see much reason to bet against him, even if that is a little worrisome that he's going to. to continue playing through it and then a kunia if you know if his ACL's healed by the start of the season I don't really have doubts about how he's going to perform either so I don't I think it's

definitely um erring on the side of caution with an emphasis on the airing to take turner ahead of those two at one overall but you know even beyond that I'd take Vladimir Guerrero over him I would take Wants Soto over him. I think I'd even take Shohay Otani over him, which isn't like to knock Trey Turner. I mean, he's great across the board. He's going to be dual eligible next year. Probably going to be more likely drafted

as a second baseman in fantasy. Yep. But he's not like the outlier for stolen bases that he was at the start of his career. You could expect about 30 from him. There are other first rounders that you could expect about 30 from. I think that the category maybe Turner

stands out most in. now is batting average. But he's added some power. You know, not a 30 homer guy in all likelihood, but 2530 with a 300 plus batting average and a good lineup. Certainly a mid-first rounder. I just think early first round, you know, you're leaving some numbers on the table if you settle for him.

Number three, how safe is Fernando Tatis? We know that he's awesome on a per game basis. Amazing this year, 282 batting average, 42 homers, 99 runs, 97 RBI, 25 steals. He was the number 5 overall player in just 130 games. He had, I believe it was two stints on the IL for his shoulder injury where he returned in the minimum time. And then he missed, I believe, another 10 games because of COVID.

So he was the third of the six hitters to go 25, 25, 25 this past season. And it's more than that. Like, he's done it this. He did it this year. He did it last year. He has 95 home runs plus steals. since the start of 2020, that is the most in baseball

of any hitter, any qualified hitter, any hitter in general. So you know when he's on the field, he's going to hit homers, he's going to steal games. He will not have shoulder surgery this all season. We got that report last week.

I mean, look, even with the shoulder this year, he destroyed baseball, Scott. 99th percentile in barrel rate. He was best in baseball and expected slugging percentage. We just need him to stay on the field, but if he does that, I mean, Tatis is going to be amazing.

Yeah. And saying he went 25, 25. At least 25, 25. Yeah, it was 42. Right. It was 42. It was 25 plus 17 and 25. So, I mean, that just shows you the advantage he has over somebody like Trey Turner. I would imagine if you did a per game calculation.

I know it's true for points leagues. Is it true for points leagues? Was he number one in points per game among hitters? I believe he was. He was tied with Vlad. I believe, at four, four points per game. Okay. Actually, Acuna was number one.

If we're going to count non-qualifiers. Yeah, Tatis was four. Then Fernando Tatis and Vladimir Guerrero. Oh, no, no. Tatis was a little ahead of Guerrero. One hundredth of, three-hundredths of a point ahead of Guerrero. So, yeah, I mean, if you did a per-game calculation, Tatis, I'm sure would have finished ahead of Turner and Bershet.

and it would be no contest. But yeah, I think it's no contest as it is, just because getting that big of that much gain in the home run category counts for a lot. I think maybe even beyond what's reflected in the formula. Number four at the position at shortstop was Marcus Semion, who he won't have shortstop eligibility next year, will he? Yes, he will.

Oh, he will. All right. So you made some appearances there this year. He was great. He was the number seven overall player, 265 batting average, 45 homers, 115 runs scored, 102 RBI, 15 steals. We spoke about him extensively on the second base podcast. So I don't know if there's anything else that we need to add. But the biggest takeaways for Semyon is that he's a free agent.

So, you know, obviously going back to Toronto, I think would be the best landing spot for his fantasy value. Great park to hit in. Great lineup, obviously. So if he leaves, I think we have to downgrade him a little bit. And we mentioned it. His quality of contact really was not great. The expected numbers on Stack has 241 expected batting average, 444 expected slug. Those were both well below his actual numbers.

So if that's something that worries you, then you probably will not want to draft him in the second round. Yeah. It doesn't worry me unless he goes to a really pitcher-friendly park. And even then, I drop him to like a third rounder, you know. Basically, two of the last three years, Marcus Simeon has been an MVP final. We don't know for sure that he's an MVP finalist for this year, but he probably should be. And he was in 2019. And then there was this awful season in the middle that wasn't really long enough to take anything away from.

So I think I've done doubting Marcus Simeon. And I agree, I'd rather see him stay with Toronto. But even if he doesn't, he's going to be a higher. pick than he's ever been before. Number five at the position was Jorge Polanco, 269 batting average, 33 homers, 97 runs, 98 RBI, and 11 steals. He was the number 24 overall player this past season. Guy hits a ton of line drives. His home run to fly ball ratio went way up this year. That's why you see the bigger home run total. He also pulled the ball way more than ever, which again, I mentioned on the second base preview. And that's part of the reason why a lot of the twins hitters were able to break out a

couple of years ago, power-wise, like Mitch Garver and Nelson Cruz. I mean, Nelson Cruz is always great, but like everyone in Minnesota's pull rate spiked. And as a result, they saw a lot of power. That's exactly what Jorge Polanco did this year. And it worked for him. Yeah, we talked about him in the second base preview too. So, you know, don't want to, going to give you the abridged version now. But he's kind of like Simeon in a couple ways that he overperforming. the expected stats and that he had the breakthrough in 2019, followed by the awful 2020, that caused most people to downgrade him significantly undermine the 2019 breakout, obviously, but then came back with even better numbers in 2021.

Low strikeout rate combined with a low ground ball rate. That's a good combination. I do think a step back is more likely than him delivering these exact same numbers next year. but I would be happy to draft him as my starter at either of those middle end field spots. Yeah, I'm gonna be interested to see where the ADP falls for Jorge Polanco, because I agree, like 33 homers, I wouldn't expect.

You know, maybe he's 22 to 25, you know, somewhere in that, like early to mid-20s in home runs. It probably gets to- I'll give him mid-20s. So if he's a 25-home or 10-steel player, that's still a very good player, you know, 2-60 batting average-ish, it's a good player.

It's just, you know, you finished number 24 overall this past season. So I don't know that anyone's expecting that. Regardless. It was crazy as it was mostly over the final four months. His numbers at the end of May were pretty awful. Yeah, Corne-Blanco was awesome in 2021, much like Butcher Box,

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31 homers, 87 RBI, 18 steals. Another one that we talked about on the second base preview, so we'll keep it. A lot of crossover with those positions, isn't there? We'll keep it tight here, but like, the plate discipline was worse than ever before. He stole more bags than ever before? That's probably not sure.

I think he had a year with, 20 seals. But he was close. He ran more than usual. Also, you know, was a contract year, obviously. So I don't know. Like, I'm not going to be drafting Javier Baez. If people are, you know, elevating him because of this past season,

he's just a weird player. Well, there's so much depth of both of these middle infield spots. And I probably should have said it at the top. Shortstop is clearly the deepest infield position. In the past, you know, we've seen it as a good position in recent years. but kind of a top-heavy position that thinned out pretty quickly. That's not the case.

I mean, one through 20, I would say it's the strongest of all the infield positions. So, you know, some of these guys are going to get drafted to second baseman. Instead, there's multi-eligible players otherwise, too, that will maybe thin the hurt a little bit. But, you know, shortstop is a position that you should not have to sell out for in any way. And it gets somebody like Javier Bay has pushed down. down to where do I have him? For Roto, I have him 10th. And obviously, even lower for points leagues

because you know, you're elevating them in Roto because there's not the damage from the poor plate discipline, not in a direct way anyway. And because steals are so hard to come by in Roto leagues. And while they're valuable in points leagues, they're not essential, right? So buy is definitely better in five by five. And even then I only have them 10th.

And like, you know, we've been saying it, for him for years, or at least I've been saying it for him for years. When the fall comes, it's going to be hard. It's going to be a hard fall. It's going to be left holding the bag. Is that the right expression?

It's not going to be good. It's not going to be good because the plate, to have the success he's had in recent years, it relies on him having an outlier babbip and an outlier home run to fly ball rate. He has to be among the best in the league in those two areas because the plate discipline is so bad.

And he's managed to do it year after year. The plate discipline got worse this year, though. And yet somehow those outlier numbers got even better. It was even a bigger outlier in Babab, a bigger outlier in Homeland to fly ball rate. And so that just makes bias even more volatile, I think, going forward. I don't think it's going to matter so much where he winds up, where he ends up signing. I think the real concern for him is just how long before. he stops being an outlier in those areas.

That is a great question. Also a great question. What does left holding the bag actually mean? The expression left holding the bag originated in 18th century Britain and spread throughout the English-speaking world. In this context, a person left holding the bag is stuck with the stolen goods. So you don't want to be that person.

Not stuck with those stolen stats he gets from cheating and babitp and home run to fly. ball rate. Yeah, and exactly. He's able to, quote, steal these stats. I think it's a good way to put it because, like, he's just a freak athlete.

So there's some guys that could just like, they can outperform these peripheral numbers because they're like, they're just so gifted athletically. Like, Javier Baez is one of them. I've made the same comp to Tyler O'Neill, so I think they're very similar players. But father time is undefeated.

That is, I mean, and that's why, you know, I refer to certain players. I think they have a profile that's going to age well. Right. it usually means it's a profile that doesn't rely a lot on extreme athleticism. And Baez isn't that. I think Baez is going to age poorly. And so, you know, no telling when it starts.

Somebody like Freddie Freeman, for example, right? Like puts the ball in play, good eye at the plate, obviously, hits a lot of line drives, it doesn't rely on, you know, that extreme athleticism. You know, that's a profile that ages quite gracefully in baseball. Javier Baez, by the way, is 20. years old, he'll turn 29 on December 1st. So, still in the prime of his career.

Also a free agent, so we'll see where he lands in the off season. Number seven at the position, Brandon Crawford, are you kidding me? 298 batting average, 24 homers, 90 RBI, 11 steals. So he just had his age 34 season. He posted career highs in homers, runs, RBI,

steals, batting average, OPS, slugging. I mean, what do we do with this? And he did it all in 138 games, right? So he missed some time, and he was still awesome. What do we do? Yeah, and among the short stops,

you haven't mentioned yet that Crawford that Crawford placed ahead of in Roto leagues. Zander Bogart, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, who had a great year, Tim Anderson. Yep. And, of course, guys who had down years like Francisco Lindor and Corey Seeger mainly he just missed a lot of time.

But yeah, Crawford, I mean, career year at age 34. Like, I think it's always a bad idea to bet on the 34-year-old breakout having a continuation, especially at a position that tends not to age well because it depends so much on athleticism. But, I mean, like, even defensively, it was one of his best seasons. So it's hard. to know what to make of it. I mean, he didn't sustain

the same power production in the second half, but he got better in other areas. He hit 309 in the second half. So, I mean, he was pretty bankable from start to finish. I only rank up 20th

for next year, which is a testament to how deep the position is that I can get away with ranking. Somebody like that only 20th, but, you know, it may work out fine.

If you end up waiting that long to fill your shortstop, that position and fill it with Crawford. I mean, there's not really, other than just the fact that it seems improbable, you know, I don't see a lot to really nitpick about here.

Number eight at the position was Carl's Correa. He hit 279, 26 homers, 104 runs, 92 RBI, zero steals, zero attempts. Just has completely eliminated that aspect of his game. He played 148 games. It was his most since 26. and look, I mean, he was still a very productive player this year,

but it kind of feel like he's a better real-life player than he is for fantasy. He's probably better for points league at this point, too, than he is for Roto. Right? We're talking about Bogarts? Carlos Corre. Carlos Corre. Okay. Yeah.

Well, if we're specifying Roto. Now, what's interesting about Correa, as for as good as his year was, he actually underperformed his expected stats. So his expected batting average is 293, 96th percentile, versus the 279 mark he actually achieved. So, you know, basically a zero for stolen bases. The power is good, but not great.

And then, you know, what's he going to give you a batting average? Is it going to be, you know, just pretty good, or is it going to be like he's contending for a batting title? Because I think that's really what's going to make all the difference. and really that's the difference between him and Zander Bogart's now, who you haven't actually mentioned yet, but I feel like Correa and Bogarts are similar,

just Bogarts has a better track record for batting average and a better track record for health. And he'll probably give you like eight to ten steals, Bogart's will. Yeah, maybe. He'll give you more than Correa. Yeah, which isn't saying much, but... But I will point out, you know, if we're bringing points leagues into discussion here,

Correa actually had more points per game this year than Bogart's did, 3.28 versus 3.12. So, you know, gets on base a lot. But we've got to see where he signs too, because I know the Astros lineup has helped elevate Correa. But, you know, somebody, you know, we had him as the underrated, undervalued pick a shortstop this year, and I think he lived up to that.

I think he had a great year. and should be treated as a trustworthy starter going forward. Yeah, I mean, a big part of his value is what you just mentioned there, is hitting in the Astros lineup. So 196 runs plus RBI, if he goes to somewhere like the Detroit Tigers, I mean, that's just undoubtedly going to be less. It's, you know, you'd have to project for, I don't know, probably between 160 and 170 runs plus RBI, I would say,

just because it's not anywhere near as good as the Houston Astros lineup. Number nine at the position was Tim Anderson, 309, batting average, 17 homers, 94 runs, 18 steals, and 123 games. And the issue for him is injuries the past couple of years. He's missed 89 games over the past three seasons. That's roughly 23% of all the games available. And the ground ball just got out of control this year, Scotty. Back in 2019, when Tim Anderson broke out, that was with a right around 48, 49% ground ball rate. the past two seasons now,

he's been up around 55%. So that's kind of putting a cap on the power production. And as much as we think he runs, he doesn't really run that much. I've been saying that for years. Yeah. No, he's a good player. He only had 120 steel season ever.

Yeah. He's a good player all around. And I loved him coming into the season. It kind of felt underwhelming, if I'm being honest. Yeah. Well, and he kind of has the Javier Bayes. thing too because so much of his

production of fantasy is built on his batting average. He's hit over 300, three straight seasons. He's had over a 370 babit each of those seasons. Now, three years in a row, I think it's fair to say that's part of his profile and you could expect him to do it again, but that does leave him with a narrower margin for error, especially since he is pretty middling in terms of power and steals potential.

You know, I think it's safer to call Tim Anderson a 15-15 guy than a 2020 guy. You know, he's never been a 2020 guy before. And his average exit velocities, his hard hit rate, they're in that range that you wonder how much the new ball affected him

because his slugging was down this year compared to the previous two. And you point out the ground ball rate, that was probably part of it too. but 20 years old I'm going to turn 29 next year and not really a standout in anything but batting average just kind of

solid otherwise yeah I don't really see him as a standout at this position even in Rodot Lakes and he's a fine starter but I actually don't have him in my top 12 for next year yeah I mean I think the hope is 300 batting average. He could potentially get to 2020 if he could stay healthy. He will be a standout and

run score too. Like he doesn't walk very much, but the lineup behind him is very good. So, okay, so I think I said he's never been a 2020 guy before. Actually, that one year he stole 20 bases. He also hit 20 home runs. That was also his only year to hit 20 home runs. So he has been a 2020 guy before. He had 240 that year. That was the year before what we consider his breakout. And I think he would have got there this year too if you know if he played 140 150 games uh because he only played 123 number 10 at the position was trevor story 251 batting average 24 homers 88 runs 20 steals and i was reading an article just the other day uh mark fintan wrote over on nlb.com the most likely suitors for trevor story and he actually listed the rockies number one so i don't know maybe there's

something that we don't know uh but right after the rockies he listed the rangers uh... Trevor Story is from Texas, actually somewhere close to where the Texas Rangers play. The Detroit Tigers were next up on the list. We mentioned they'll be in the market for a shortstop. And then the Philadelphia Phillies. So I think, you know, the Phillies is still a pretty good part to pitch in. Obviously, we want him to go back to Colorado,

but I personally don't think that's going to happen. And it was a disappointing year for Story. Maybe, you know, all the rumors and, you know, the fact that he's in a contract. year kind of played into it. But yeah, he definitely let us down as a, you know, borderline first round pick. Yeah, he finished strong.

It's worth pointing out. His last two months were his best too. So, you know, I don't think he's like broken or there's no obvious signs of decline, anything like that. It was an off year. But it kind of, it kind of served to give us a sneak peek into the sort of player he'll be if he leaves Colorado.

And, you know, it's going to vary if he goes, to a place like Texas versus a place like Philly. You'd rather him go to a hitter's park of some kind, but none are going to give him the BABIP boost that he's benefited from during his time in Colorado. So I think about a 250 batting average is to be expected. 25 homers and 20 steals. You know, that's still a pretty good rhodo player.

I think post-Cores Trevor Story, we're going to see a gap in his roto value versus his points league value. But any time you can get, you could pencil a guy in for 20 steals, you know, with also some power. That's going to be a pretty hot commodity in roto. So I still have him seventh in my shortstop rankings for next year for Roto specifically, even presuming he's leaving Colorado. Where do I have him at points? I have him ninth and points.

So not even, not that much lower. Texas could be brutal. If he winds up in Texas, like, that is a bad lineup. And he's mentioned that he wants to prioritize winning. So I don't know that Texas is actually, you know. That does seem like a long shot. They're pretty early in a rebuild there. I think Detroit would make a lot more sense.

Yeah. And he wants to. Phillies are going to be in on whoever they want to be in on. Yeah. So potentially them. All right, so let's see what happens with Trevor Story. And I think part of why he had a down year, like I mentioned before,

Coorsfield kind of played a little bit weird. There were, you know, other, some of their players just didn't perform that well like Coors, like compared to where they've been in years past. And that was the case for Trevor Story this year. He had an 880 OPS at Coorsfield. That was 9.72 for his career. So he clearly, you know, underperformed there.

And he had a really low bathe compared to his career number. So if somehow he goes back to Colorado, then I would expect a bounce back on the numbers he posted this past season. Let's take a quick break when we return. The early 2022 rankings at Shortstop, we'll do that next here on Fantasy Baseball today. All right, so Scott's Top 20 for 2022 at Shortstop. Let's start with the top five.

No surprise here. Fernando Tatis, Trey Turner, Bobichette, Marcus Semyon, and Corey Seeger. We have not talked about Corey Seeger at all yet. and this past season, he was still very good. The problem was he got hit with a hand. He didn't get hit with a hand.

That would be weird. You know, that, you know, whatever. He got hit in the hand with a pitch and he missed a good amount of the season. But when he played, 306 batting average, 16 homers, a 915 OPS.

That's a 25 homer pace over 150 games. Scott, where are you at on Corey Seeger? He was someone you loved coming into last season. Still love him. Still love Corey Seeger. He really saved himself with a huge September. His batting average for this year was 306.

That's compared to 307 last year. His OPS this year ended up being at 915. That's compared to 943 last year. So he basically brought his numbers, at least in terms of the percentages, in line with that 2020 season that had us all convinced he was a second rounder. So I still am at fifth at the shortstop. for next year. I have him ahead of Bogarts. I have a head of story.

I have him who else. Headed boat. I mentioned Bogart's already. Headed Carlos Correy, obviously. I have Seeger 5th. You know, you look at the stackcast page. It's still red everywhere. I still think the best is yet to come for Corey Seeger.

If he stays with the Dodgers, that's even better, but I don't think it's so much matters where he goes. I think the best is yet to come. Scott, where would you rather him be for his fantasy value next year. The Dodgers or the Yankees? Probably the Yankees.

I mean, left-handed hitter in that park. And really, that's a division full of hitters parks. It is. So, you know, it's close. I mean, it's not like I'm going to move them up to fourth in my shortstop rankings if he signs with the Yankees. But yeah, probably the Yankees, if you gave me

the choice. I do wonder, you know, we've seen this before. We just saw it with Lindor, right? Like, big name player, signs, huge contract in a new league, you know, moving from the nationally to the American League, you know, lots of pressure in New York, too. I wonder if that would play into it. We're getting way too ahead of ourselves because, like, we don't even know if that's going to happen, but I can dream, right? Yeah. Six through 10 at the position in Scottie's rankings here, Zander Bogart's, Trevor's Story Wander Franco, haven't talked about him yet either.

Carlos Correa at number nine, and then Javier Baez is 10th. Let's quickly talk about Zander Bogart's because we haven't mentioned his name yet either. Well, we did mention it. I've mentioned his name a lot, actually. But we haven't broken him down specifically. We haven't talked about him. The second half was not good. It was, you know, it was very pedestrian. 255 batting average. 761 OPS. Plate discipline still looked fine, 12% walk rate,

19% strikeout rate. But yeah, I mean, the numbers, it doesn't, like, there's nothing in the batted ball data that's really a stand. out to me either. No. So maybe it's just a little bit unlucky. His final number is 2.95 batting average, 23 homers, five steals, 863 OPS.

I think it's just full season, more predictive than partial season. He got off to... So what really happened is in 2019, the peak of the juice ball era, right? That was the year he had 33 homers and 52 doubles. And I think that got people thinking there was a higher...

a higher ceiling for Bogarts than initially thought. But like the stack has data said he overachieved in 2019. 2020 happened. Whatever, it was a good year, but hard to take much from it. He got off to a really hot start this year, and so we're still looking at that 2019 line and thinking, oh, that's Bogart. He's the 30-Homer 50-Double guy.

And then, you know, he had to come back down to Earth a little and finished with numbers that were more typical for the rest of his career. Like a 290 batting average, more like 25 homer power, you know, than 35 homer power. And certainly with the ball change, it would make sense that he would regress in that category.

It's not like he's a standout in terms of exit velocity or anything like that. Really good plate discipline guy. And I think decidedly second tier at shortstop. That's what this year showed for Bogart's when there was some thinking that maybe he was a borderline first tier guy. I love Bogarts in points leagues too.

I mean, the guy puts the ball in play. You're going to get a lot of plate appearances in a great lineup. And I was just looking up to see if there were any injuries he was dealing with this past year that maybe slowed him down in the second half. And there is an article about him fighting a wrist injury in late July. So that, I mean, that lines up with the second half. So that's definitely something that he could have been playing through, which affected the numbers.

All right, well, let's talk about Wander Franco, who came up this year and had a, 43 game on base streak as a, I believe, 20 years old. Yeah, he's 20. And he does not turn 21 until March. So I think someone that it's too early to say if he will definitively always be better as a points league player.

But as of now, a 12% strikeout rate this past season, 8% walk rate, he puts the ball in play, probably going to hit high in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, going to see a lot of played appearances as well. All of those things add up to being a great, Points League player, I just, I don't know how much power and speed there's going to be right away. Like maybe two or three years from now, he kind of like grows into that, Scott, but I don't know if it's going to be there right away in year two. I don't know either. The

ground ball rate is pretty high. You know, this was a problem for Vladimir Guerrero early in his career. But, okay, so he played 70 games at seven homers. You project that out over a full season. you know, you're talking 15, 16 homers, obviously, not what you want to see. You add the two home runs he hit in four playoff games. So it jumps to nine home runs in 74 games. It's looking a little better, right? And then you've got the fact that, like,

at such a young age, these contact skills are unbelievable. He struck out three times in September. His approach is ridiculous, Scott. Like, yeah, nothing. I mean, I can't. Look, he's as close. to Juan Soto as we could possibly get. And I've said this before and it's like,

it's not fair because Juan Soto is like a once-in-a-generation player. And I don't even know that Wander Franco is going to get to Wans Soto's level, but just in terms of a player that young, showing that much control at the plate, that is who it reminds me of. So, yeah, I mean, the floor is so high that I don't, it's really, yes, there is a question of how much power will he deliver ultimately and how quickly will he get to it?

But the floor seems even higher for Franco than it did for Vladimir Guerrero. And so I'm willing to give more benefit of the doubt to him. And I ended up ranking him higher than I thought I would. Probably still not high enough to get him because there are going to be these these Wander Franco zealots that reach for him in round three and maybe it'll pay off. But I did not imagine I'd be ranking him head of Carlos Correa and Javier Baez as I am here, slotting him eighth at shortstop. and I actually have him seventh in points leagues

because I dropped Trevor's story behind him. And like in points leagues, like I don't even know that it matters how much Wander Franco hits for power because that plate discipline is, you know, moves him so far ahead. So I've got to read more about this. I know that you're not big on projections, Scott,

but steamer projections, it looks like they're already out on fan graphs. I thought that they usually come out a little bit later, but they have Wander Franco projected for next year. 285 batting average 19 homers 92 runs 10 steals steamer projections

are usually more on the conservative side of things so you know 2010 lots of runs lots of RBI 285 batting average

I mean that's that's a pretty good player it's just I'm with you I think there's there's probably always going to be someone in a draft that likes

Wander Franco more than me and I like them a lot it's just it's going to be a big price tag to pay in 2022 let's take a look at 11 through 15 in the rankings,

Jorge Polanco, Francisco Lindor, Tim Anderson, Jake Cronowarth, and Jazz Chisholm. We have not talked about Francisco Lindor yet, Scott. And I would just ask you what went wrong this year, but it was basically everything.

It just, performance-wise, the underlying numbers, there was nothing really to back up, you know, that says that he should have been better than what he was this past season. And then he dealt with an oblique injury, so he only played 125 games. All that being said, he still put up 20 homers, 10 steals

in those 125 games. So like, you know, that he was on pace for 25 and 12 to 15 steals. That's still good, but a 230 batting average, last year the batting average was bad. The only thing that you could bet on is the fact that he's, you know, still, I think a really talented player. And he had an awesome September.

So if you're into those small samples. Yeah, I mean, he made up a lot of ground on the home run, category specifically in September. I think he only batted like 260 or something like that. So, but I don't want to overstate it. I mean, September was by far his best month, but it still would have been kind of underwhelming from France, for Francisco Lindor at his peak. And, you know, I have a theory here for, for Lindor that, that's not so favorable for

him. I mean, I'm seeing this a lot when we talked about it for Rendon and Bregman in the third base preview, where if you look at the timeline of the juice ball era and where the player kind of took off as a power hitter, it lines up. And I think Lindor is another case of that. He first broke into the majors in – so the juice ball era began in the second half of 2016. Lendor broke in in 2015 and was a good player but built more for batting average. 2016, again, had a good year,

301 batting average, 15 homers, 19th steel, 794 OPS. And it was a must-star player in fantasy, but not like that first round type, not just 15 homer power as opposed to 30 homer power. And in 2017, the first full year of the juice ball era was where he took off as a power hitter 33 home runs. And there was also a change to his, his approach.

He started selling out for fly balls that year too. It made sense. I mean, it was part of the fly ball revolution. Balls were leaving the park easier. It made sense to hit the ball in the air more and get those home runs out of it. So we go, they eliminate the juice ball this past year. It's quote unquote deadened.

He's still hitting fly balls at the rate he did in that 2017 season when he broke through with 33 homes. runs and they're just not leaving the park like they used to. So I feel like Lindor for him, I'm not sure he's capable of being that guy he was from 2017 to 2019, that first round caliber bat who hits 30 home runs. I'm not sure with this new ball that's really even an option for him. To avoid having a season as bad as 2021, he probably needs to change his approach and not elevate the ball so much.

And I'm not sure there's a willingness to do that. So, you know, I still rank him 12th because of his track record and because I think there is that chance he finds a happy medium. But there's a reason I'm only ranking him 12th and not like seventh, you know. I'm concerned that he may not be able to bounce back so easily. So I don't want to just like blindly draft Lindor because he's been useful in the past because I think you laid out some really good reasons for why, you know, he just might not be that. player anymore. I'll point out that 79 games from June 1st on, which is right around the sticky substance, you know, they started cracking down, 16 homers, six steals, 252 batting average, 822 OPS, 11% walk rate, 20% strikeout rate. It's not an exciting batting average,

but if he hits 250 to 260 with 25 homers and 12 to 15 steals, I think he's probably going to pay off his price tag. And I don't know what that price tag is going to be yet. But like, if you're getting him in the middle round six year, I'm going to have a lot of Francisco Lindor. It's kind of like Mani Machado a couple of years ago where I just, I think he's better than what he showed this past season. And I want to bet on that.

So, yeah, I mean, that's, you know, you'll be happy with that stat line from him next year. And I do think it's possible. But it's, it's obviously not bouncing back to the Lindor we were drafting in the first round, you know? 100%. Yeah. You got to... I think you have to accept that he's less than that now.

Is he better than 20, 21? Probably, but I, you know, I don't think... I don't think there's a reason for a ton of enthusiasm here. I think he's definitely better than a 230 batting average. It's just... I've seen enough out of him to know that, you know, he's too talented to bat... to have a batting average that low.

So I would definitely bet on that being higher. But like the days of 30 homers, 20 steals, 280 plus batting average. No, like no one's expecting that from Francis Glingdora. At least I'm not. The next name I wanted to bring up, actually, let's go to the final group of five here, the 16 through 20 in your shortstop rankings.

Willie Adomis, Danzby Swanson, Bobby Witt, Brennan Rogers, and Brandon Crawford. And I just wanted to talk about Willie Adomis real quick here because we, you know, we haven't mentioned him at all. And once he joined Milwaukee, he was great. We had 99 games with them, 285, batting average, 20 homers, four steals, an 886 OPS. Is this just a matter of how deep the position is

so you couldn't get him higher? Yeah, I kind of wanted to. I kind of wanted to. I could see moving him ahead of someone like Cronerworth, you know? Yeah, I can too. Cronoanworth has the triple eligibility, which is partly contributing to his ranking, first base and second base,

in addition to shortstop. For what it's worth, I have Croninworth, 14th here at shortstop that's compared to 9th at first base and 12th at second base so that gives you some idea the comparison between the positions there first base is so bad

but yeah getting back to adamas I actually have him in my top 15 in points leagues because I drop jazz chisholm way down in that format where you're not selling out for steals but yeah just basically he went to the Brewers in late May basically so he spent most of the year with them and hit 285 with an 886 OPS

I mean, that's Andrew Bogart's like, right, to use that name again. And you look at his career away from Tropicana Field before that trade. He's complained about the batters eye at that park since leaving. And the numbers were very similar to that, that 285 with an 886 OPS. Still only 26. I mean, maybe that park was really holding him back in Tampa Bay, and this is who we're going to see going forward. I think I'm going to bet on that possibility a lot if he's if he is indeed going this late at the position.

All right. Like we do every one of these podcasts, an early target and early avoid. Scott, is there anyone that stands out as a name that you think you might have a lot of next year, a short stop? I think Corey Seeger's probably not going to be ranked as high as fifth at the position by most people. So I'm hoping I have a lot of him again. And like I just said, Willie Adamas, I think, is going to be a guy I'm betting on a lot too.

Yeah, I like Willie Adamas, too. I just said the name, but Francisco Lindor, I'm really interested to see where the ADP lands on him. But if he's beyond, I don't know, round six or seven, yeah, I'm going to be in on Lindor. An early avoid, who we looking at? Baez, I pretty much always avoid him. So I was able to get him in a couple of Roto leagues this year.

year because I think people were fading him in general. You know, Trevor's story potentially, it depends how hard everyone else is fading him. I might end up with him a lot if people fade him too much. Those are probably the main ones. I'm not going to be that excited to draft Tim Anderson. I just don't think the ceiling is there. I'm looking at the free agents too. And it's just, it's going to depend where they land.

but Semion, whoever lands in Detroit, I just, I think Detroit's going to get one of these guys, whether it's Semian or Correa or Trevor Story, and I'm just not very excited about that for this year. You know, maybe by next year, you know, 2023, once Torkelson and Riley Green is up, you know, the lineup looks a little bit better. But I could see that, you know,

kind of putting a damper on one of those names here in 2022. Speaking of prospects, prospects to know at Shortstop, for 2022, and you have one of them ranked inside your top 20. Bobby Witt, I think undoubtedly will be the top prospect drafted in redraft leagues next year. It'll be some combination of Bobby Witt and then a big tier drop, Adley Ruchman and a few other names for next year. But Bobby Witt, just tremendous year between AA and AAA, 33 homers, 29 steals. C.J. Abrams, I think, is a name to pay attention to with the San Diego Padres. He's a little bit younger. He only played 42 games in AA this year. He dealt with, I believe it was a shoulder injury. So probably need some more seasoning, but I think

we see him at some point in 2022. Bryson Stott is a name to know for the Phillies. 299 batting average, 16 homers, 10 steals, Oswald Paraza with the Yankees. He actually made it all the way all the way up to AAA this year. 297, 18 homers, 38 steals between three levels and the minors. And then like there are so many shortstop prospects got, but there's a lot that are just not going to be ready next year. I mean, probably for a couple of years. Marco Luciano, Marcelo Meyer, Nelvie Marte, Jordan Lawler, Anthony Volpe. Yeah, that's kind of the teenage class. I can see Anthony Volpe. He's already progressed so far on the Yankee system. I could see him making a run that brings him up next year. But one name you didn't mention that I think

will be up next year is Jordan Groschen's of the Blue Jays, who'll probably be a third basement eventually, but he'll be eligible at shortstop to begin the year. So he's probably my second favorite at the position behind Bobby Witt. But yeah, I mean, the fact I have Bobby Witt only 18th here, like for being what we all know will be the highest drafted minor leaguer next year, like that seems low, but like, can you draft him over Dan Sby Swanson? I have a hard time making an argument for that. Unless, you know, spring training is going and they're really talking about

with making the opening day roster, which is a possibility. I might have to move them up a couple spots then. But it's just, there's just a lot of really good names here. And it makes it difficult to invest in the guy who has yet to break in. All right, let's wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. Fantasy baseball today.

We'll be back again on Thursday with the Welsh here to talk prospects. We will see you then. Bye-bye.