Fantasy Baseball Today - Buy or Sell? Drop Carlos Rodon & Bobby Miller? (7/10 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 10, 2024

Carlos Rodon had yet another clunker and his fastball is getting rocked (3:22)! ... Bobby Miller got destroyed at the Phillies (9:55). ... News (19:17): Tyler Glasnow went on the IL with a back injury.... ... Buy or Sell (26:53): hold on to Yusei Kikuchi! Josh Naylor over Matt Olson rest of season? ... Josh Smith continues his breakout (39:52). Add Michael Busch or Colt Keith? ... Any interest in Jameson Taillon or Jose Quintana (51:53)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (54:53). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, July 10th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, I've got some buy-your-sell questions.
Starting point is 00:00:35 Speaking of which, what do we do? with Carlos Rodan and Bobby Miller. It feels like we have the same question every week. You say Kikuchi had one of the best starts of his career and much more, but let's jump in. All right, Chris, you were up, Player of the Night. Do we have a drop with an announcer going like, when Hunter Green threw up on the mound last week? Can we get the drop from the announcer's reaction to that? Because I feel like that's more relevant for the guys we're going to talk about, at least two of three that we're going to talk about.
Starting point is 00:01:10 Well, started off with Carlos Rodon, who's a disaster in the first inning of games. Like, this is really the biggest problem for him. He gave up four runs today. His ERA was like seven, five in the first inning this season. It's like six in the second, so only marginally better. And then after that, he pitches like an ace. And it's pretty obvious what's going on. And Frank, you mentioned this on Twitter.
Starting point is 00:01:39 it's been obvious to anyone watching Yankees games when Carlos Rodon pitches. His fastball stinks and he throws it a ton early in games, gets crushed, stops throwing the fastball, and all of a sudden starts looking like a good pitcher again. And it's one of those things where surely he's aware.
Starting point is 00:02:04 I mean, if someone as dumb as me can figure it out, someone on the Yankees has to be smart enough to say, hey, your fastball's really bad right now. Stop throwing it as much and maybe you'll be better. He has given up 96.5 mile per hour, average exit velocity in five straight games with his four-seem fastball. It was 100.9, I think, today.
Starting point is 00:02:31 It's been by far his worst pitch this season, expected Wobo over 400. for the season whiff rate down below 20%. The thing that's really frustrating, and I'm sure this is the thing that's really frustrating for Carlos Rodon, the guy actually throwing these fastballs, is physically looks the same as ever. I mean, like almost identical.
Starting point is 00:02:56 If you look at fastball velocity, 95.4 miles per hour this season, it was 95.4 in 2021, 95.5.5 in 2022 in 2022. Let me pull up the inverted vertical break and all that stuff. Inverted vertical break, 17.4 inches this season, 17.6 in 2022, 17.1 in 2020. Vertical approach angle, identical. And that was true last year is the problem. And so for whatever reason, while the physical characteristics of Carlos Rodon's fastball look as good as they did in 2020,
Starting point is 00:03:37 and 2022. And even if you look at the, you know, zone profiles and stuff, it doesn't look that different for whatever reason. The pitch just went from legitimately being one of the best in baseball to right now looking like one of the worst. And the rest of the arsenal kind of looks awesome. He got a career high nine whiffs with the change up today. The slider whiff rate still right around 40%.
Starting point is 00:04:03 Curveball whiff rate up to 33% with very good results on ball. and play across the board. It's just the fastball. And I don't have a good explanation for it. Maybe he'll figure it out and get better. But right now, I think there are two things. One, he needs to stop using the fastball as much. It's 50% usage this season.
Starting point is 00:04:23 That's actually lower than it's been ever before, but still too much. And two, there's no way you can start him against the Orioles this weekend. Like, this is a guy who has to prove his way back into your lineup after the last five starts. Yeah, I mean, to the extent you can change, obviously, if you're in a weekly league, two-star future. He wasn't the most advisable in the rankings, but I think I had him slotted in for the, for points leagues anyway, for this two-star week.
Starting point is 00:04:54 To your point about him, okay, maybe he should just use his fastball less. His one good start during this very bad five-star stretch, he had his fastball usage. It was actually the start. just before this one. And his velocity was actually down in it, but he got good results throwing his fast bowling only about a quarter of the time.
Starting point is 00:05:18 Let's see if I can find it on that. Even that one was less than a quality start. Well, yeah, but of the three runs he gave up, two were in the second inning. Yeah, he got eight strikeouts in five in a third inning. So I'm kind of stretching the definition of good there, but it was the one reason for hope
Starting point is 00:05:34 amid this bad five-star stretch. And what's crazy about Carlos Rodan is he's still getting whiffs. He had 19 whiffs on 95 pitches in this start. And over the last five starts, he has 31 strikeouts over 23 innings. So I had this as part of a by-low segment later on. The question here with Rodon, Carlos Rodan has gone from the biggest sell high to the biggest by-low in fantasy. Are you buying that?
Starting point is 00:06:00 I wouldn't say the biggest by-low in fantasy. I would say Huli Rodriguez, although he did. have four hits today and maybe slightly injured his calf. We're not 100% sure on that one. But there are a lot of good bylaws. I think you can make the case for Carlos Rodon as a bylaw. But like this is one where I think it truly has to be a bylaw. It would have to be like you're not valuing him as a top 50 starting pitcher.
Starting point is 00:06:27 And I do rank him higher than that. I think we're on the verge. Well, like I unfortunately said in April and missed out on the gray May. I think we're on the verge of Carlos Rodan just getting dropped in standard size leagues. That's what I was... Yeah, that's what I was thinking is that I'm getting questions people are asking if I could drop him.
Starting point is 00:06:45 So you might just be able to offer something on your bench for Carlos Rodon if he's getting ready to be dropped. Yeah, no, I like if I could turn Reynaldo Lopez into him, I would do that, but I would try to get more. Okay. But I would do that, but I do want to stress that like, even though I do think
Starting point is 00:07:05 Carlos Rodon is a by low, I think there are going to be more bad days ahead. I don't think that this is something where, yes, Carlos Rodon is a by low because I think he's going to be a star moving forward, which is how I feel about Huli Rodriguez. And I have more confidence in Pablo Lopez, certainly, than Carlos Rodon. I'm expecting Carlos Rodon to be more of a number four starter for fantasy, like a four or five, where you get good starts, you get a lot of strikeouts. going to be a lot of stinkers in there too. The ERA is not going to be great, I think.
Starting point is 00:07:40 Scott, over to you from one bad to another one, another really bad. Really bad. Yeah, Bobby Miller, who's been pretty much nothing but bad since returning from that lengthy absence for shoulder inflammation. And it seems to just keep getting worse. So it was at Philadelphia in this one. Tough matchup, obviously, nine runs on 10 hits in four innings. His fastball was down 1.2 miles per hour. lighter was down 2.9 miles per hour. The velocity has been down from the beginning and continues
Starting point is 00:08:11 to trend down, actually. And given the nature of the injury, shoulder inflammation, okay, kind of vague, but shoulder issues are concerning and can impact velocity. And maybe that has something to do with it. For what it's worth, Bobby Miller, Dave Roberts, deny it's a health issue. This was Bobby Miller's quote, after the game, I'm trying everything I can. Shoulder is strong right now, so it's probably just mechanics. It's a little bit of everything. I'm still trying to figure that out. So I didn't have concrete answers there.
Starting point is 00:08:42 And I think that's something we just have to accept right now. I saw this tweet from Enosaris about the way Bobby Miller's performing right now. I don't know why Bobby Miller hasn't been better. It bothers me. He's got VLO even now as it's down. Pitches have good shapes. He isn't a two-pitched guy. The command is maybe not elite, but it's not below average.
Starting point is 00:09:08 He's got pitches that fit each-handedness. I still think he'll be good. So this is like one of the best baseball analysts alive. And he, like I feel his pain in this that by all the analytical indicators, everything should be fine for Bobby Miller. But there are way more variables than we even know how to account for and then we'll ever know
Starting point is 00:09:35 how to account for and I think it's just worth reminding everyone of that in this moment I mean he listed off what five or six variables but it's still only five or six and it doesn't even account
Starting point is 00:09:47 for any mechanical issue that Bobby Miller might discover when he goes and pitch tipping or like this is one thing that I think a lot about that I don't know if we'll ever be able to account for but like just
Starting point is 00:09:59 do the pitches look as difficult to hit from the batters perspective. Because we're looking at it from a completely different perspective. And honestly, what we see as, you know, watching on games,
Starting point is 00:10:14 it tells us very little about how the pitches actually look to the hitters. So that's one of those things where like, I think Bryce Miller's a really good example of something that he was a guy who, you know, last year it was fastball, fastball, fastball. And the sweeper,
Starting point is 00:10:32 and the slider looked good based on the stuff metrics and the eye test looked good like they moved a lot but for whatever reason they just didn't work and you know I think in that case it was the arm slot is a little lower
Starting point is 00:10:46 when he throws those pitches and it just kind of telegraphs them but for whatever reason there was something that all of our knowledge and metrics and tracking don't pick up on and the thing with Bobby Miller is that was kind of the case last year right? Like for as much hype as he had and as much as we liked him coming into this season,
Starting point is 00:11:08 he was just okay last year. Like he wasn't... Yeah, I mean, started rough, finished stronger. I think a lot of people thought that momentum would carry over into this season. And who knows? Maybe it would have, if not for the shoulder injury. Getting back to what Eno Seris was saying, though, I think he's picked out the most important variables here. But I think what those variables tell us, what those those boxes that Bobby Miller checks tells us is that Bobby Miller has a ton of talent. And probably that talent is going to win out in the end, which is why I'd rather hold on to him, even as he's unusable right now.
Starting point is 00:11:45 But the future is long and he's still very early in his career and he's coming off injury and there's still stuff he's sorting out. You know what it reminds me of. And so while like I think Bobby Biller has a bright future, clearly in the present, he's like I said, unusable. What it reminds me of, and I think I've made this comp before on the show, is like Noah Cindergarde, where he was really good. And obviously, I don't think Noah Cindergarde in his peak ever had a stretch as bad as this.
Starting point is 00:12:17 But Noah Cindergarde was always a guy who seemed like he should be better. It seemed like he should be one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game. And he was just a good strikeout pitcher. And that was the thing that was weird about Bobby Miller last year was he had the stretch. Yeah, like Scott said, late in the year, September, I think he had like 36 strikeouts and 32 innings or something. Before that, I mean, the overall strikeout rate was 23.6%, which is like just barely above average. And it didn't make sense why he was getting so few strikeouts. But, you know, now it's continuing into this year.
Starting point is 00:12:51 Obviously, the shoulder issue is a mitigating factor. But it just, it does feel like for whatever reason, Bobby Miller just is not as good it looks like as he should be. And maybe that's a reason to buy on, buy. You know, maybe it's a reason to believe that he will figure it out, but you gotta, I mean,
Starting point is 00:13:11 I like Scott said, I would hang on to him. I would not be dropping him, but I can certainly understand if you just can't just justify keeping him around. Four starts since returning from the IL for Bobby Miller, a 968 ERA, a 198 whip, more walks than
Starting point is 00:13:27 strikeouts, five home runs allowed in four starts. You guys have pretty much answered this, but one of the buyer sells was Bobby Miller is dropable. It sounds like you guys are selling that, right? He's dropable, but I would probably try not to drop him. I think what changes the calculation
Starting point is 00:13:42 is there isn't an abundance of waiver wire pitchers right now that are all that exciting. We'll talk about James and Tyone later and Jose Cantana and those guys are fine, they're pitching well right now, but they're more in the streaming conversation than pitchers that actually have long-term upside.
Starting point is 00:13:59 Someone like Bobby Miller, if he can get back on track. So I would not be dropping Bobby Miller for any of those. If you just had to buy on one of these on the super cheap, would you rather buy Rodon or Miller right now? Oh, Rodon, for sure. Scott? I can't imagine trading for either outside of Dynasty, in which case it'd obviously be Bobby Miller. Yeah. I guess I'll say Carlos Rodon. He seems more usable at the moment. But that like that could change. You know, Bobby Miller. maybe he has an amazing second half. I think that's more likely than it is for Carlos Rodon.
Starting point is 00:14:37 All right, my player of the night is you say Kikuchi, but we are going to save that for a little bit later on. Reminder to sign up for the FBT newsletter if you haven't already. If you're watching on YouTube, you can scan that QR code, and that will take you right to the website where you click on the FBT logo, you punch in your email address, and it's easy as that. You get the newsletter delivered right to your email inbox
Starting point is 00:14:58 for free every single weekday. Let's take our first break, and when we return, we'll hit the news and notes right after this. Welcome back in, the news and notes, and this one came out of nowhere. The Dodgers placed Tyler Glass now on the 15-day IL due to lower back tightness, retroactive to July 6th. Apparently, his back flared up Sunday while playing catch. And if you want to play the conspiracy theorist, maybe the Dodgers just wanted to give him a little bit extra rest going into the All-Star break.
Starting point is 00:15:28 That would not surprise me one bit. I hope this is not something that lingers, but I could see that being the case. That's what it sounds like to me is like why I'm not doubting. He has some discomfort in his back, but it's with the All-Star break coming up, why force the issue? Yeah, 15 days, if he returned after the minimum, it would be the third day after the break. So there's a chance that he just misses one turn through the rotation because of this. That we're speculating, but that's my guess, is that it's just very minor.
Starting point is 00:15:58 Zach Wheeler left his start after five innings Tuesday with lower back tightness. Hopefully that's another one. We've lost enough pitchers. We cannot be losing any more aces. So hopefully Zach Wheeler is all right. Both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwerber were activated and in the lineup against the Dodgers. Julio Rodriguez was back in the lineup after missing Sunday's game with a quad injury. And he returned with a bang.
Starting point is 00:16:23 4-4 with his ninth home run, three runs, two RBI. What do you know, Chris? He pulled the ball in the air and hit a awesome, massive home run. But Julio also left this game in the eighth inning. They were up 7 to 1 at the time. We've kind of seen some rumblings on Twitter that it could be a CAF thing, but not from any beatwriters or any certified accounts or anything. So I don't know.
Starting point is 00:16:47 I guess we have to wait and see. Chris, have you seen anything more on Julio Rodriguez? His calf got a, and this is from Ryan Divish, who covers the Mariners for the Seattle Times. Okay. Julio said his calf got a little tight, late in the game just as a result of not doing much sprinting the last three or four days. He wasn't concerned about it. I think he did like the postgame TV interview as well, which you would think he would avoid if it was a serious injury.
Starting point is 00:17:13 So from what I've, everything I've seen, it doesn't sound like it's too serious. All right. Yorana Alvarez was back in the lineup after sitting out Sunday with a knee contusion. O'Neill Cruz was out of the lineup after leaving Monday with hamstring tightness. Kodi Senga made another rehab start this time at AAA, where he threw two and two-thirds schoolless innings with three strikeouts. And we did get an email asking about Sena
Starting point is 00:17:36 and whether or not he could be considered a second half sleeper and or breakout. Either one is fine. But Sena is up to 86% rostered, and I think he absolutely could make a big impact in the second half. Yeah, I mean, he's made several rehab starts. The results have been good.
Starting point is 00:17:54 I haven't seen reports on velocity or whatever. It was fine. 95.7 miles per hour or 96 miles per hour, actually. I mean, this was a consensus top 15 pitcher before he got hurt. So of course he could have a big impact in the second half. Yep, absolutely. He only threw 52 pitches today. Velocity movement all looked fine.
Starting point is 00:18:14 So I'd say he's progressing well, but probably a couple weeks away still. What do you think? One or two more rehab starts? I would guess at least. too. Yeah. All right. Yeah, so we should see Senga, maybe late July, something like that. Zander Bogartz is on track to return from the IL on Friday. He is 79% rostered, was having a rough season before the injury. 219 batting average four homers, four steals in 47 games. David Bednar has been sent to AA to begin a rehab assignment.
Starting point is 00:18:45 He's on the IL with a left oblique strain. Jacob deGrom threw a 30 pitch bullpen on Tuesday. Bruce Bochie said to Grom is still, quote, a ways away from making. his season debut. And I think what kind of changes the calculation for DeGrom, we've heard some rumblings that the Rangers could be sellers at the deadline. If they're out of it, does it even make sense to bring Jacob DeGrom back this year? Probably not. I could see one just like it's not their choice.
Starting point is 00:19:14 It's his. Right. That's what I was going to say. Given his standing, if he wants to throw 15, 20 innings at the end of the season, Rangers aren't going to say no. but I'm not expecting much of an impact from him. Brian Wu will return from the IL this weekend against the Angels. Tristan Kossis is expected to start hitting off a T this week.
Starting point is 00:19:34 He's been out since April with a cartilage tear in his left rib cage. Justin Verlander said Tuesday that he's increased the frequency of his flat ground throwing, but there remains no timeline for when he will throw off a mound. He is dealing with a neck injury. Clayton Kershaw will make his next start. Rehab starts Saturday. at AAA and he made his first rehab start back on June 19th, but soreness in his shoulder forced him to pause.
Starting point is 00:19:59 The rehab assignment he has been throwing. And again, next rehab start on Saturday. Each of Jordan Montgomery, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez completed bullpen sessions as they all worked their way back from injury. Both Blake Snell and Tyro Estrada were reinstated by the Giants on Tuesday. Blake Snell solid in his return. We'll talk about that later on.
Starting point is 00:20:19 Jonathan India was a late scratch due to a left knee. contusion. Here is a name we have not heard in a while. Drew Rasmussen is scheduled to throw live batting practice Saturday and is aiming to begin a rehab assignment following the All-Star break. He could be back at some point in August or September. He was really good last year. I just don't know if there will be enough time for Rasmussen to make an impact.
Starting point is 00:20:42 And I think I'd be more nervous even than DeGrom's case that Rasmussen, they'll just pull the plug at some point. Yeah, the Rays are currently five and a half games out of a wild card spot, so yeah, they kind of need to pick it up right now. Estuary Ruiz began a rehab assignment at Single A on Tuesday and, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:05 couldn't make an impact in the second half if you need steals. One prospect update, Junior Caminero began a rehab assignment Tuesday at the Rays rookie level of Florida Complex League. He's been out since late May with a grade two left quad train.
Starting point is 00:21:18 He is 57% rostered. and I wouldn't be surprised if maybe we see Caminero in August with the raise. This is kind of a weird one too because, again, if the raise are out of it, like, do they need to push Caminero? I don't know. I mean, they already started his service clock last year. Right. He's retaining rookie eligibility, which matters for draft pick reward purposes.
Starting point is 00:21:44 And so maybe they'll want to preserve that. But I think more likely, they'll want to audition him for next year, see what they have in him, see if he's, because they have some big decisions ahead of him, ahead of them, I should say.
Starting point is 00:22:01 I mean, they may be sellers at the deadline. They kind of are right now. Already. Yeah, they could clear a spot for him at the deadline. And by that point, he'll probably have his feet back under him in the minors
Starting point is 00:22:14 and be ready for a call-up. He hasn't been that great at AAA. it's worth noting for the time he's been healthy, but still hits the ball as hard as any minor leaguer. The upside is enormous, and he held his own in his stint last year, which included some time in the playoffs. So I think, you know,
Starting point is 00:22:33 I was just putting my prospect report together for this week, and Junior Cominero starting this rehab assignment is back in my five on the verge. All right. Some buy or sell scenarios here. And I mentioned you say Kikuchi. He was my player of the night. He turned in a career high, 13 strikeouts at the Giants.
Starting point is 00:22:52 He went 7 and a 3rd. He only allowed 2 runs, 13 strikeouts to 0 walks. He had 19 whiffs on 100 pitches, 10 of those on the fastball, 5 on the slider, 3 on the curve. And he did lean a little bit more on that fastball because it was amazing. This was his first quality start since June 6th. And we know that Kikuchi had struggled recently, his previous eight outings before this. A 650 ERA, a 161 whip. buy or sell.
Starting point is 00:23:19 If you dropped you say Kukuchi, you made a big mistake. I'll let Chris answer this. I'll buy. Yeah. Who has been out there? Okay. If you dropped him for Shane Boss,
Starting point is 00:23:35 I think there's a decent chance that wasn't a mistake. I would probably expect fairly similar results from them moving forward, but I could see that one being justified. Is there another pitcher who's emerged over the last month that you feel better,
Starting point is 00:23:50 truly better about than you say Kukuchi the rest of the way? There's not for me. I think Gavin Williams could be in that conversation. Maybe I don't exactly feel great about Gavin Williams right now. Maybe.
Starting point is 00:24:04 I think it's funny how we can't we can't seem to separate Kikuchi and Nick Povetta. Like Kikuchi's always been Chris's favorite. Pivotta's always been mine. but they're kind of similar in certain ways.
Starting point is 00:24:20 And they both went through a pretty bad rough patch that might have compelled people to drop them. And this very last turn for each of them, they had their best start of the season, arguably. Both had double-digit strikeouts. Povetta allowed just one hit in his. And yeah, it's funny that they're both, we can't disassociate them,
Starting point is 00:24:46 or at least I can't because they're kind of just copying each other. They've both remained top 45 pitchers for me throughout these struggles. So I've, they've never, I've never come close to dropping either of them. For what it's worth with Kikuchi, his ERA is four on the nose, but his FIP is 358 and his ex-fib is 324.
Starting point is 00:25:05 So underlying number is still pretty good there for Kikuchi. I feel like whenever we talked about it, and we were kind of like, yeah, you could drop them if anyone emerges, but you don't really have to. so hopefully you didn't because this start was amazing. That's kind of always my attitude when we talk about Kikuchi, though, to be fair. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:25:21 Next up, Josh Naylor, a massive game. Three for four with a sock in a shoe, his 22nd home run, his fourth steal, and the expected numbers still look awesome. Stackass data is there. He hits the ball hard. Barrel rate, average exit velocity, both career highs for Josh Naylor. Buy or sell. Nailer will be better than Matt Olson rest of season.
Starting point is 00:25:42 And I know some people listening, they're going to say, oh, Matt Olson, he's gross. Let me remind you. He was amazing last year. Matt Olson. Matt Olson has been better than Josh Naylor for like the entirety of their professional lives, probably going back to high school,
Starting point is 00:26:00 probably going back to middle school, except for the most recent three and a third months. Right. So do you buy it that Josh Naylor will be better than Matt Olson from this point forward? Look, I sell it because I have Olson ranked ahead.
Starting point is 00:26:14 still have Olson in the number three spot at first base. But I will tell you that as I was doing my weekly audit Monday, it was the first time I was tempted to move Olson down. And it's so hard to resist, you know, just going with the flow, okay, this guy has outscored this guy by this much to this point. So clearly, I should rank him ahead. But that's not what the rest of the, season rankings are supposed to be,
Starting point is 00:26:47 you're, to the only extent season to date numbers matter is if they change, if you, if you think they have some predictive quality to them. And I don't really think anything Olson's done to this point has any predictive
Starting point is 00:27:04 quality to it. And I think Olson's better than Naylor. I think Naylor's really good. And so maybe it's a close enough call that you could justify moving Olson behind, but I, if I had to bet right now, I would bet Olson has the bigger second half, the Nailer. And I don't know how deep into the second half we have to go for me to, for me to decide that's no longer the case. I think we're getting close to that point, but I'm not ready to go there yet. I still think Olson is one of the
Starting point is 00:27:40 best power hitters in baseball and obviously hasn't had his best three and a half months, but he's going to get hot at some point. He hasn't, he hasn't had the kind of hot streak we know he's capable of and have seen multiple times throughout his career. I am buying this and I think they can both be really good and Josh Naylor could just be better. You know, like Matt Olson could have a huge breakout second half and Josh Naylor could just maybe not be as good as he was in the first half here, but he could also just be amazing. Right, but the thing there, like,
Starting point is 00:28:14 Nailer is one of those guys who, like, might be a better fantasy header than a real-life hitter, but like, his first half was an 827 OPS. It was a 247 batting average, you know, like, it... It should have been better. But the expected numbers are a lot better. But, like,
Starting point is 00:28:30 Matt Olson's expected numbers are also better than what he's done so far. And obviously, the career long numbers are significantly better for Olson. So I just, I don't know, if Josh Nailer is going to be better than Matt Olson the rest of the way, I would say it's because Josh Naylor is also better than he has been so far. Because I do expect Matt Olson to be better than what Josh Naylor has done so far.
Starting point is 00:28:53 Yeah, the 827 OPS, it feels low. I mean, just based on 22 homers, 70 RBI, and a handful of steals. I don't know, I'm just buying what the Guardians are doing this year. They've completely changed their offensive philosophy. And obviously, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Stephen Kwan, they've all been at the center of that. Next up, we have Jazz Chisholm, who is looking to up his trade value. Two for four with a sock and a
Starting point is 00:29:16 shoe, his 11th home run, his 18th steal. He has four steals in his past five games, and overall it's been a very successful season. He's managed to stay healthy. He's been really good against lefties this season. Chris, I'll give you this one. By yourself, Jazz Chisholm will be traded
Starting point is 00:29:32 at the deadline. Or before? Yeah, before the deadline. I would say sometime between now and 4 p.m. on July, 31st or whatever the deadline ends up being. I don't know off the top of my head. July 30th. I definitely expect Jazz Chisholm to be traded because the Marlins are going nowhere.
Starting point is 00:29:51 They're going nowhere next year. He's about to get a little more expensive and that matters a lot for the Marlins. And he's currently healthy. And you cannot count on him to remain healthy. So I think every day they don't trade him is running the significant risk that he gets hurt and kind of screws them over in that regard. and I just, I think he's totally miscast as the best player on a team. He's the best player on the Marlins, but that says a lot about the Marlins.
Starting point is 00:30:17 So yes, I do think Jazz Chisholm will definitely be, I would say there's like a 75% chance Jazz Chisham gets traded. Plus their GM seems like itching to trade. Maybe as much as any GM as they've ever had. He was ready to pack it in in mid-April. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they never tried this offseason.
Starting point is 00:30:36 Like this was a, this was a stealth tank for sure this season. this season. Any guesses as to where Jazz could be moved? Who needs a center fielder who's contending? I guess it doesn't have to be a center fielder, an outfielder of any kind. I think the Mariners just need offense. They do.
Starting point is 00:30:54 Yeah. They can move him back to the infield. He can play a corner outfield spot. I don't know if moving back to the infield is realistic. But did it make sense to move him out of the infield in the first place? I honestly don't know. I think he's a better seven. Interfielder than he was a like he wasn't really a shortstop and I think a center fielder has more value than the second baseman, but
Starting point is 00:31:14 I could see Not the Red Sox. They don't really have room The Yankees Isn't their outfield full? That's why they couldn't bring up Jason Dominguez Mean is it full? It's full or do they have guys in the outfield? Yeah, I mean Ferdinugo has been pretty bad for a while now, but yeah and he's an expiring contract. He's he's a story starting caliber outfielder. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:41 I think the Yankees are going to use their trade assets elsewhere, bottom line. I could see the twins. I thought about the twins too. That could make some sense. Kind of full fun.
Starting point is 00:31:53 Maybe the Astros. They're kind of climbing their way back into it. Good to that. The Dodgers? Oh, definitely. Dodgers could happen too. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:32:03 They've tried a lot of different guys out there. Probably would be best for his value. Let's move on to another outfieler, Brenton Doyle. No cores, no problem. Three for four, with a double dong, two runs, two RBI. Last 11 games have been awesome for Brenton Doyle. 425 batting average, seven homers, 13 RBI, two steals.
Starting point is 00:32:22 By or sell, Brenton Doyle is a top 30 outfielder rest of season. I moved him up a lot in my rest of season rankings. I don't think he made it quite into the top 30, in part because there's, look we're we're assessing him coming off a monster week where he scored almost 50 fantasy points and it's always dangerous to do that there's still the the awkwardness of his home away splits that makes makes me reluctant to overvalue like makes me hesitant to to put him too high so i have doyle uh where do i have um 37th top 40 but not top 30 Okay. So we're selling it. I haven't done my rankings update yet, but I, like, I would certainly say no in points. I could see him being a top 30 guy the rest of the way in Roto, but I'm probably not going to rank it that way. What, 10 days ago at the end of June, he had a 694 OPS, now it's 780.
Starting point is 00:33:28 the last eight days or nine days are are carrying a lot of weight for Brenton Doyle. Before that, he was hitting, he was on pace for 14 homers, 39 steals, 92 runs, 55 RBI. That's decent production. That's starting caliber production in a five outfielder league,
Starting point is 00:33:45 but it's not top 30 productions. So I would sell this one. Entering Tuesday, Brenton Doyle was the seventh best outfielder in Roto, 17th and head-ted points. So top 20 to what he's done so far, but yeah, I think I would have him just outside of the top 30 rest of season, but it has been an awesome breakout year for Brenton Doyle. Let's take our final break, and when we return,
Starting point is 00:34:09 we will hit the waiver wire right after this. Welcome back in, and let's talk waiver wire hitters. Josh Smith continues his breakout season, three for four with his eighth home run, two RBI. He is batting 296 with an 841 OPS. He consistently bats first, second, or third in the Rangers lineup. It's actually been really, really good against lefties this season. as well. He is 75%
Starting point is 00:34:30 rostered. So this is in the shallowest of leagues. Scott, do you think Josh Smith needs to be 100% based on what he's done so far? That 2.5 fantasy points per game is pretty rough. It feels like it should be higher, right? In 841 OPS?
Starting point is 00:34:46 Yeah, but 78 combined runs and RBI, eight home runs, four steals, like it's just... He's kind of doing it in a Brendan Donovan kind of way, right? Yeah. I mean, to put that in perspective, Jackson, is 2.56. Jazz Chesim 2.68.
Starting point is 00:35:03 It's not great, but it's usable. He's usable in points leagues, but does he need to be rostered in all of them? No. And I'd actually argue it's probably his better format. Given that he's not a big home run or stolen base guy, has a lot of play discipline. He's kind of Brendan Donovanish.
Starting point is 00:35:24 Yeah. Is Josh Smith? So I think that 75% rate is about right. By the way, he was a sleeper hitter for this week. So delivering on that. Let's do a little this or that waiver wire edition. And Michael Bush stayed hot four for six with his 12th home run. He has homered in back-to-back games.
Starting point is 00:35:44 It's also a sleeper hitter this week. Over his last, look at Scotty Pat on the back right there. It's through two days. It's been a good week for the sleeper hitters. Not as good for the sleeper pitchers, though we got a nice start from Jose Cantana. Yeah. But some other ones were roughed up today.
Starting point is 00:36:01 We'll get to them, I'm sure. Last eight games for Bush, 387 with three home runs. And Colt Keith, looks like things are slowing down for him. He's picked it up two for five with his eighth home run. And last seven games for him, he is 12 for 29 with four homers and a stolen base. Chris, who would you rather have moving forward? Michael Bush or Colt Keith? I think it's probably Bush.
Starting point is 00:36:23 He's been better overall. the quality of contact metrics are better. He's actually hitting 327 since the start of June, which I hadn't really noticed, although that's come with, I think this was his fifth home run in that stretch, or maybe sixth, and it's like a 35% strikeout rate,
Starting point is 00:36:39 which is pretty concerning. But I would take him over, Keith. Although Keith was on my second half sleepers that I wrote about for CBSSports.com on Monday or Tuesday, whichever day that came out. So I do think his best days are ahead. And I think like, I still think like a 20 Homer 10 steel type of player is what
Starting point is 00:37:03 Keith can be the rest of the way. I think both of their best days are ahead. And I brought at the same point yesterday about Bush's strikeout rate even while his production has been better. But I did notice this, much more recently. for Michael Bush, his last five games. Just one strikeout in five games. And I've brought it up for Michael Bush before. Somebody who followed his minor league career very closely.
Starting point is 00:37:36 I was high on him from the time he first appeared in the Dodgers organization, have him in a bunch of dynasty leagues, tracked him very closely. I know it always took him a while to get up to speed at a new level. and then he would catch fire and look like the best hitter in the minor leagues. I'm not saying Michael Bush is ever going to be the best hitter in the major leagues, but I do think what he's doing now so far in his rookie season, which hasn't been that bad by any stretch.
Starting point is 00:38:11 But I think it could get better, and I think there's a chance it could happen in the second half. Somebody on Twitter asked me if they could drop Nolan Aronado for Michael Bush, in a shallow league. I'm pretty down on Aeronado. I'm not taking the same stance with him as I am. Matt Olson or Julio Rodriguez or most of the struggling high-end titters. He's always been a concerning profile, Aeronado, and now he's pretty old on top of it.
Starting point is 00:38:40 Having said that, I'd still gamble on him over Bush. For all the positive things I just said about Bush, it's, you know, Aronado's track record is what it is. And it still could go a lot better for him in the second half. Let's talk about Zach Gelloff, who has hit much better over the past month. He went three for four with his 10th home run. Last 18 games, he's betting 281 with five homers, four steals, but a 42% strikeout rate, which is just completely untenable.
Starting point is 00:39:09 Going back to Colt Keith, who would you guys rather have moving forward? Colt Keith or Zach Gelloff? I think that probably depends on the format. I think I would definitely go with Keith in a points league. Gelloff, it's, I think, seven homers, six steals since the start of June, with like a 257 average, so that's still, that's playable for him. He's one of those guys that you just have to avoid being a disaster in batting average, and I think he can do that.
Starting point is 00:39:38 So I would go Gell off in a Roto League. Yeah, I agree. What's made Colt Keith's slow start to his career kind of fascinating is that it hasn't been strikeout related at all. He's maintained a strikeout rate around 18%. So kind of half of what Gelloffs is. The data, there aren't a lot of red flags for Colt Keith. The chase rate seems a little bit high,
Starting point is 00:40:00 so he may be having so much success connecting with the ball that he's chasing and connected with pitches he shun it. But it's only a little high. I'm mostly encouraged by the direction Keith is headed. Well, Gelloff, I think the home run, and certainly the stolen 8. Base output could be higher, but it's just a more concerning profile overall. Are you looking to add either of these outfielders?
Starting point is 00:40:27 Brandon Marsh had himself a big game, two for three with a sock and a shoe, his eighth home run, his 11th, 11 steel, and Masataka Yoshita. No, he wasn't a sleeper, sorry. I was looking for it. Two for three with a double, a walk, a run, and an RBI. His last eight games, he's betting 344 tons of line drives during that stretch. Are you looking at either one, Marsh or Yoshita? I think both roster rates probably are fine.
Starting point is 00:40:53 Yoshita is one of those where the tough thing is he profiles better in a points league, which is a shallower format generally, and that I'm not sure even though he's better in a points league that he's actually good enough to matter much in a points league. So these are both bench bats, I think. Some names in deeper leagues. We actually had a lot of interesting performance from some lower end players here. Scott, you were right. It is Annel Martinez who hit his first career home run here on Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:41:23 He has started six straight for the Guardians. He has hit second in each of them. Lawrence Butler had himself a big game, two for five with a sock and a shoe. His fifth home run, his fifth steal. Hazu Sanchez is hitting for more power recently, one for three with his 10th homer. He has six home runs over his last 18 games. And Statcaste date is actually awesome for Jesus. Josh Palacios has homered in back-to-back games for the pirates.
Starting point is 00:41:47 Roddy Telez continues to hit. a revenge game against the Brewers. Two for four with his eighth home run. And Reese Hines, who I brought up yesterday, he has now destroyed baseballs two days in a row. Three for five with a double, a triple. His second home run, the double 110 exit velocity, the home run 112.7,
Starting point is 00:42:09 458 feet. This per MLB.com, Heinz became the first player since at least 1901 with five extra base hits through two career games. games. Lots of names here. Does anyone stand out? You know, we're talking 15-team Roto leagues, maybe even deeper than that, but Reese Hines, Roddy Telez, Josh Palacios, Hazu Sanchez, Lawrence Butler, Anhelle Martinez. I mean, Heinz, he's hit two home runs
Starting point is 00:42:37 917 feet or something in his first two major league games. That's really impressive. Power is no question for him. I think it's an interesting profile in a five-out field league. I think he's worth a look. I'm sure you guys talked about this yesterday, however. I made the... He struck out 38% of the time. Yeah, I made the Aristides Aquino. Comparison for Reese Heinz,
Starting point is 00:43:01 although I couldn't come up with the name and called him Archimedes instead. Yeah, slightly different. Slightly different name. But yeah, like, I think the upside makes him, because it might be the case that, like, I think he was like a 32% strike out rate guy
Starting point is 00:43:17 in double A, and he was like a low 800s OPS, if not better. So there's legitimate 30 plus Homer raw power for sure. It's just a question of whether he can make even bad enough contact to matter. But there's also a little bit of athleticism here. I think it's like 12 stolen bases at AA and 6 or something at AAA this year. So it's an interesting skill set. And certainly, I think, stands out from this group, even if the likeliest outcome is he's
Starting point is 00:43:48 a Hazer Sanchez type. I am most fascinated by Anheel Martinez as a matter of fact and we're talking deep league options so I'm not saying everybody needs to rush out and add Martinez but the plate discipline is incredible they're batting him second in the lineup
Starting point is 00:44:06 he doesn't have a lot of raw power but he elevates to his pole side well looking at the minor league data and that's kind of the guardians type they have a hitter type they love they're pretty much all short stops as their natural position and then they move elsewhere as needed and they have good plate discipline, don't hit the ball especially hard,
Starting point is 00:44:28 but they trust themselves to maximize the power output and Martinez may be somebody they do that with. Yes, he looks pretty interesting as well. We'll just go back to Hazu Sanchez. I want to point out the average exit velocity, 96th percentile, the barrel rate 88th percentile, 274XBA 510 X-slug. Scott, I know you brought up Trevor Larnick as a second half breakout.
Starting point is 00:44:56 I kind of get those vibes from Hazu Sanchez as well. I know it's a really bad team and a bad ballpark, but Stackass data there is awesome with him. So we'll see if he can actually capitalize on it. It's possible. The strikeout rate was never as bad as Larnix, and it hasn't become as good as Larnix. So we haven't seen that kind of secondary,
Starting point is 00:45:15 change for Sanchez, who's always had great exit velocities. 24% K rate this year, though. That's pretty good. Yeah, no, I mean,
Starting point is 00:45:24 it's, like I said, it's, it's held steady while Larnix has gone from very bad to good. Another difference is we've seen it so many times from Sanchez that I'm just disinclined
Starting point is 00:45:37 to bet on it anymore, but he's only 26. It's still possible. He started a little bit against lefties. He's only four. He's really bad against lefties. Yeah, he's only started four games against lefties this season.
Starting point is 00:45:50 And he has a 290 OPS. So yeah, that's a pretty big red flag that makes it just NL only, I think. Hey, we always have those players we latch on to. It was, it still is. I smiled. I smiled when you brought up the name. Willie Calhoun was always won. Hazu Sanchez.
Starting point is 00:46:08 I just cannot quit, man. I always think there's there's always a chance with Hayu Sanchez. Let's talk Waverwire pitchers and a few names that. popped up here, Jameson, a quality start at the Orioles, six innings, two runs, seven strikeouts. His last six starts, all quality starts. 237 ERA, a point 89 whip.
Starting point is 00:46:27 Jose Cantano was awesome up against the Nationals, seven shutout innings, one hit, one walk, five strikeouts. He had 14 whiffs on 103 pitches. Last five outings for him, a point 89 ERA, a point 89 whip. And Trevor Rogers was solid at the Astros. Five and a third, two runs allowed, five strikeouts. Breakouts. Last six starts for Rogers, a 331 ERA, 132 whip. Walks still a problem. Underlying numbers, not really buying it as all at all. But any interest here in Rogers, Kentana, or James and Tyone?
Starting point is 00:47:00 Not as a permanent solution. I think Tyone and Kentana. Tyone especially are in that category of pitcher like a Kyle Gibson or Miles Michaelis. Just any Cardinals pitcher, really. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, they can, they can, they can guile their way to quality starts. And Tyone has done that a lot lately, and we've seen it before. But we know the upside's pretty limited there. So streamer type when he's going well, I think, I think he's in that discussion. Obviously, I had Jose Cantana as a streamer for this week with two good matchups. But I don't see either as a permanent solution for your fantasy team. The only thing I'll add on Tyone is there is a chance his value goes up if he's traded because there have been rumors about that and you know teams like the Orioles are going to be looking for pitching. I feel like the Dodgers are always looking for pitching. So if he goes to a team like that, I could see the value climbing a little bit more for someone like Jameson Tyone. One name in deeper leagues, Quinn Priester pitched very well as the bulk reliever at the Brewers. Six innings, two runs.
Starting point is 00:48:09 One of those earned eight strikeouts with 14 whiffs on. 95 pitches. He did change things up in this start. He led with the slider, 32% usage, and it was really good. The velocity was up across the board. Quinn Priester is someone who did have some prospect pedigree and he's kind of tinkered with the pitch mix the past couple of years. Could you see anything here, Chris, with Quinn Priester in deeper leagues? I don't see much. I think the fact that he changed his pitch mix up led with the slider and got seven wits with it. That's a good sign. But, I mean, his strike rate for the season, I think it's like 14% or something.
Starting point is 00:48:48 So, you know, he's someone that. Better than buyers. He's someone that I thought about writing about for the waiver wire for the newsletter. And I just, I don't see him mattering outside of really deep leagues. All right. But, yeah, I mean, I just highlight the ground ball rate, how high it is for Priester. That's more his game. If you can get any swing and miss at all, there's a chance.
Starting point is 00:49:10 But it's a long shot. Let's get into the leftovers pitching part one. Logan Gilbert turned in a strong start at the Padres. Seven and two-thirds, three runs allowed with seven strikeouts. Ronell Blanco, a great start up against the Marlins. Seven innings, two runs, seven strikeouts there. And Chris Sale was solid, not at his best, at the debacks. They are really good against lefties.
Starting point is 00:49:32 Five and a third, two runs, three walks, nine strikeouts. He had 12 whiffs on 100 pitches. Scott, anything that stood out from Sale, Blanco, and Logan Gilbert. I don't believe so. I mean, I think the one we're most uncertain about is Ronell Blanco. And I know he gave up some hard contact in this start. It continues to seem like it doesn't really matter. His velocity was down about 1.5 across the board.
Starting point is 00:50:03 So maybe that's concerning as the innings begin to pick up for an inexperienced pitcher like him. he was facing the Marlins that can mask some of those concerns. Ultimately, though, it's not enough for me to draw any actual conclusions. It was a good start for Ronel Blanco and what's been a good season so far. I continue to think he's a sell high candidate. And I will say, I think you can make a case that Chris Sale is a cell high candidate. But like, I think it's only if you can get like an age. plus something because it's similar something.
Starting point is 00:50:43 We all have them as the top five pitch. Yeah, no, he's incredible. He's the number two pitcher in fantasy before this start. The one thing I would point out is among the highest end pitchers, even though he's consistently going deep into game, 6.2 innings per start, I believe. He's trailing in innings because he's only pitched on regular rest once. He already lost a two-start week this week because the Braves pushed him back.
Starting point is 00:51:08 And so there is just like a very minuscule gap that he loses if you think he's not going to be a mid-2s ERA pitcher moving forward. And I think like expecting a little bit of regression is reasonable without like crapping on Chris Sale. I think he's awesome. I think he's a top five start pitcher. But it's just what I would just say is like there are probably not going to be many, if any, to start weeks. of the way. He's probably going to get probably two fewer starts than the other high-end pitchers. And so that's the one thing I would say is just he might be just a little tiny, teeny bit, less valuable than his service numbers indicate. But again, I rank him as a top five starting pitcher.
Starting point is 00:51:58 You need to get like a difference-making package to justify moving him. I don't like it, Chris. I don't like it. I mean, even if he's, even if he's a 3.20, ERA the rest of the way. Yeah, he's awesome. It's going to be. But it's just that like, if you, relative to his surface level numbers,
Starting point is 00:52:18 he's a little worse than another pitcher with his surface level numbers would be based on how the Braves are using. All right, let's move on. Pitching leftovers part two. Max Scherzer, a quality start at the Angels,
Starting point is 00:52:28 six and two thirds, four runs loud, three of those earned with six strikeouts. Ryan Pepio, a bounce back start up against the Yankees, five and two thirds, one run, seven strikeouts. And Blake Snell,
Starting point is 00:52:38 pitched well in his return up against the Blue Jays, five shutout innings, one hit, three walks, three strikeouts. And this was his first scoreless start of the season for Blake Snell. Anything to add on him, Pepio, and Scherzerz. Oh, gosh, we finally got a good start from Blake Snell. Good, you know, because it was a good fantasy outcome. He still had as many walks as strikeouts. But every start prior to this one, at least in the major leagues, had been a total disaster and made it so you'd have to be kind of, you'd have to have been kind of nutty to activate him for this return from the I.O.
Starting point is 00:53:22 But I think we all expect at some point he'll do the Blake's now thing where it clicks and he goes on a run that makes him look like the best pitcher in baseball or at least among them. and it has to start somewhere. So fortunately, lineups are already locked in most cases, and he'll get another start before the All-Star break, we think. And if that one goes as well or even better, maybe we're looking at a new ball game for Blake Snell in the second half. I would say I would need to see better to really feel confident in him. only five six whiffs in this one.
Starting point is 00:54:03 The funny thing about Blake Snell is last year was the lowest zone rate of his career was under 40%. This year was actually 43%. It was 47% in today's start. And I do think there's something to be said for Blake Snell just like getting the basics right. Before we start looking for, now can he look like Blake's now? He didn't look like Blake Snell today, but he didn't look like a disaster. And that's good enough for now. but I'm certainly not ready to view Blake Snell as a must start pitcher or anything.
Starting point is 00:54:33 And even like I would love to see a strikeout per inning next time after. Yeah, they got three and five and two thirds. Kind of similar to Max Scherzer. Although, you know, he, the fastball is just, I don't think he got a single whiff with the four seamer today. It was all slider and change up. But it was good enough. You know, it was like these were, these were three pitching performance. performances, Brian Pepio included, that I wanted to see, give me a reason to be optimistic and all three of them did. Pepio only one whiff on the fastball. That's two starts in a row. Two starts in a row. But he got seven on the change. And the changeup was like his best pitch as a prospect. So if he could rediscover that and get the fastball, which is going to be an elite pitch, you know, that makes him a lot more interesting. So I've gone back and forth on Ryan Pepio. He's a hold for now.
Starting point is 00:55:27 Two rough-ish outings here. Jake Irvin, regression start at the Mets, six innings, six runs allowed, two walks to two strikeouts. He gave up two homers in this start. It was his second time facing the Mets in a row. And Brian Beaux, solid game through five innings. It was five innings, two runs, 11 strikeouts. He was at 91 pitches.
Starting point is 00:55:48 They brought him out for the sixth, and everything fell apart. Five and a third, five runs allowed, still wound up at the 11 strikeouts, 23 whiffs on 105 pitches. So some good, some bad. I think we're kind of over the Brian Bayo thing. Like, let's just not recommend him for a while. Like, we just need to see some consistency out of him. And, you know, it's been hard to come by.
Starting point is 00:56:10 I have to come up with 10 sleeper pitchers every week. How could you? How could you, Scott? I think a week where he's scheduled to face. What was it, Oakland in, and what was the second matchup? I'm not blaming you, by the way, Scott. Well, you're saying, you're saying let's not recommend. meant him anymore.
Starting point is 00:56:25 I may have to. Cardinals are the second match. It is a good point though. There were a couple of outings. I think Logan Gilbert was kind of similar where he was cruising through the first six innings and then he gave up two runs in the seventh,
Starting point is 00:56:38 came back out for the eighth and gave up another run. And it's like, it would have been fine. It would have been fine. Just take the five innings from Brian Bayo, especially with how inefficient he was. I think it was like a 27 pitch first inning, even though he got a bunch of strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:56:50 So like it was probably unnecessary to bring him back out for the sixth in this one. And we'd feel a lot better about him if they hadn't. 11 strikeouts, you got that at least. 23 whiffs is amazing. You should not expect to see it again. We've seen this happen to four pitchers facing Oakland at other times this year. They just can't make contact sometimes that lineup.
Starting point is 00:57:18 It happened against Bayo today. Well, except the contact they did make was damaging. Really hard contact. 96.8 mile per hour average X of velocity. So still some problems. Should I bring up the other sleeper pitcher, Scott? Or should I just move on? Who was it?
Starting point is 00:57:35 Like Ben Lively and Colin Ray? They all were in because they all were two-star pitchers with great matchups. Colin Ray was definitely you don't want to get caught holding the bag situation because for as much as we've ragged on Tyler Anderson and his overachievement this year
Starting point is 00:57:56 Colin Ray may be an even more obvious case of overachieving. Yeah, like that's one where like I feel bad when pitchers have good starts. Another example, Joey Estes had a complete game shutout in his most recent start. And I always feel so bad when we come on and like,
Starting point is 00:58:14 yeah, but they stink and it doesn't matter. But like there's a reason we do that. Like, yeah, I know a good ERA and even a good month is really valuable. But like, there's a reason we're trying to identify skill sets and not just looking at results. And Colin Ray, this was always going to happen at some point for that guy, you know? Yeah. And we could. I feel bad if their mothers were listening.
Starting point is 00:58:39 But I don't, I don't think they are. I mean, I don't want them to know that I think this. Like, I would feel horribly. These are, Conray is so much better at what he does than what I do. But, like, you know, we're comparing him to, like, you know, Chris Sale and stuff. We could drop all three of those, right, if you picked them up for the two-star week, Bayo, lively, Colin Ray. Yeah, I mean, there are pitchers who I don't think should ever graduate from consideration for that weekly streamers list. Like, their roster rate should always be low enough that they qualify.
Starting point is 00:59:18 So, yeah, pick them up. Pick them up when you have to and the matchups are right, but don't be afraid to lose them. Some hitting leftovers, two huge games from these catchers. Logan O'Hoppy, three for four with a double dong. Last 24 games, he's batting 3.41 with seven home runs in OPS over 1,000. And Cow Raleigh, three for five with a double dong, three runs, four RBI. Last 13 games, he has five homers, two steals, hitting the ball extremely hard, lots of barrels during that stretch. Cal Raleigh, 17 home runs tied for most at catcher, 55 RBI, tied for second.
Starting point is 00:59:55 Which one do you guys like more, rest of season? Logan O'Hopi, Cal Raleigh. Oh, Hoppe. I was going to say Raleigh in the same voice. Oh, okay. The exact same inflection. Yeah, there's just such a big difference in batting average there, but Raleigh is doing exactly what he's supposed to do.
Starting point is 01:00:16 Yeah, I think Raleigh is more projectable. Yeah, fair enough. I'll take the upside of O'Hopi, especially since he himself has 14 home runs. So it's not like it's just all speculative. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I have Logan O'Hoppe just slightly ahead. But yeah, I think both are top 10 catchers rest of season.
Starting point is 01:00:35 Some other hitting leftovers, Ian Hap, has been awesome over the past month. Two-for-four with his 14th home run. Jose Ramirez, just a massive game. Three-for-three with three walks and two steals. He's up to 23 homers, 18 steals on the season. Trey Turner has been great since returning from the IL, three for four with his eighth home run, and 19 games since returning,
Starting point is 01:00:55 3.41 with six of those eight homers. I saw some complaining that he made the All-Star game, and that's just silly. He's been so good this season. I know he missed time, but we're never going to look back at Trey Turner making the All-Star game this year and think it was a mistake, you know? Overall, it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme,
Starting point is 01:01:13 but it feels like L.A. Dela-Cruz should have been the starter. If you care about that kind of thing. Cincinnati should have been stuffing the ballots like they used to. Who is the actual starter? Trey Tert. My turn. Oh, well. Yeah, I would have started.
Starting point is 01:01:28 Yeah, but Trey Tern is a better player. But they both made, like, at the end of the day, when people are looking back over these players' career, it counts the same whether you're voted in as the starter or not. It just says A-S in Blue Link. Yeah. So, you know, it's fine. But to your point about,
Starting point is 01:01:48 Nobody's going to complain about Trey Turner making an All-Star team looking back. It still bothers me that Ed Sprague made the 1999 NL All-Star team over Chipper Jones. That was the year where Chipper Jones went on to win MVP and wasn't last time. Yeah, that's one of those weird ones, yeah. Yeah. Bugs me. Speaking of weird things happening with All-Star games, Francisco Lindor continues to hit three-for-four with his 16th home run. He has been awesome.
Starting point is 01:02:17 The expected stats are great. The stack has numbers also awesome. Career high barrel rate for Lindor. Alex Bregman, two for four with his 11th home run. And since May 28th, he is batting 318 with seven home runs. That is a 36 game stretch. And Spencer Steer has really picked things up as well. One for three with two walks and his 14th homer.
Starting point is 01:02:36 Over his last 22 games, he has seven home runs during that stretch. Some bullpen updates for the raise. Pete Fairbanks allowed a hit, but picked up his 15th save for the guardian. audience. Emmanuel Class A got the 10th inning with a two-run lead. He gave up two hits, one unearned run, but picked up his 28th save. For the Mets, Reed Garrett started the ninth inning with a five-run lead. He recorded two outs, but gave up three runs. He was relieved by Edwin Diaz, who got the final out for his ninth save. And for the Astros, Josh Hader, walked one, but shark out two for his 16th save. For the Rangers, Kirby Yates,
Starting point is 01:03:12 allowed a hit, but shark out two for his 14th. And for the Blue Jays, Chad, Green was unavailable. It was Trevor Richards who got the ninth inning with a one-run lead. He gave up two runs on a walk and two hits. He took his second blown save and first loss of the season. I am relieved Kirby Yates is finally getting some saves because he has been among the most dominant closers this year, but you wouldn't know it by his save total. It's just been denied chances on that disappointing Rangers team. But it's finally happening. And that's That's the way saves go sometimes. They tend to come in bunches.
Starting point is 01:03:49 If he gets traded, do you think Jose LeClerc moves back into the closer roll? Gosh, I didn't even consider that possibility, but you did mention the Rangers as possible sellers. I don't know. I'm going to put out a bullpen report on Thursday, and maybe I'll look into the Rangers options when I do that. All right, to stream or not to stream on Wednesday. Some options. We have Drew Thorpe up against the Twins. Nope, James and I own pitch today.
Starting point is 01:04:21 Reese Olson versus the Guardians. We have Carson Spires versus the Rockies in Cincinnati. There's Tobias Myers versus the Pirates. I think there were more added because there were so many rainouts on Tuesday. Yeah, Alec Marsh. No, I mentioned him. Andre Palante versus the Royale. Oils, anything else?
Starting point is 01:04:47 Frankie Montas versus the Rockies, that one could work out too. Yep. Yeah, that's probably my favorite. Yeah, I would put him over Rees Olson against the Guardians. That's my second favorite. Obviously, not a good matchup, but Rees Olson is a good pitcher in my mind. Yeah, I think I'd actually start Rees Olson ahead of Frankie Montas if it came to it, but I understand the matchup significantly worse.
Starting point is 01:05:10 Yeah. Scratchee Carson Spires, by the way. They would have a double header tomorrow, but they aren't. So it's just Frankie Montas pitching against the Rockies. I did not write in Thursday matchups, so I'll just list some off here. And David Peterson up against the Nationals. They're bad against lefties, which was part of the reason I recommended Jose Cantana against them. But that's hard to get excited about starting David Peterson.
Starting point is 01:05:36 Aaron Savali versus the Pirates. No. Landon Knack at the Phillies. I just don't think he's going to go five innings even if he pitches well or more than five innings I guess Yeah Albert Suarez versus the Cubs That's probably the best one so far for Thursday I assume Shane Baez is much more much too rostered after last week
Starting point is 01:05:59 Yeah and one of our faves Tyler Anderson Up against the Mariners Yeah I could see it There's a time to start Tyler Anderson it's coming off his most dominant start against a team that strikes out like crazy. Yeah. So let's say Anderson versus the Mariners, Suarez versus the Cubs, and David Peterson,
Starting point is 01:06:23 if you're desperate, up against the nationals on Thursday. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in some fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Thank you.

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