Fantasy Baseball Today - Buy the Dip on These Early ADP Fallers! (1/7 Fantasy Baseball podcast)
Episode Date: January 7, 2026The drafting public seems to be fed up with Corey Seager's injuries! Three big names in Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers and Austin Riley are falling. What about Ozzie Albies and Jonathan Aranda? Subscr...ibe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Discussion (0)
We have early ADP fallers that you should buy.
Up next on Fantasy Baseball Today Express.
Welcome in to FBT Express on Wednesday, January 7th.
I am, for example, joined by the returning.
Scott White, and we are here to look at ADP Fallers.
This is comparing NFBC ADP from the month of November to December.
So over the past month, these names have been falling down.
And the first one up is Corey Seeger, who is down from 91 to 1,
106. So Scott, people are tired of the injuries. They've had enough. Yeah. I mean,
on the one hand, I get it because I've been burned by also taking Corey Seeger in round
four or five. But I thought where he was originally there, 91 was still way too low. Like,
I tried to correct. They're going far beyond what I was doing with Corey Seeger in my rankings.
even as a player who's played only about 115, 120 games the last three years,
he's still reaching the 30 homer threshold.
I mean, he is as good of a power hitter as you'll find at shortstop
and a long track record of doing that.
And so, you know, particularly if it's a league that isn't quite so deep
as maybe the 15-teamers that this ADP is geared toward.
but a more typical-sized league
where you can actually get a replacement shortstop
of some worth.
And you combine that with what Corey Seeger's going to provide.
You might get 40 homers from that position this year.
And you know what?
There's a chance.
He's done it before.
There's a chance Corey Seeger might stay healthy
for more like 135, 140 games.
And then you'll definitely have a steal.
I have them more around 70th in my rankings.
So I think this is, if you can get them outside the top 100,
it's a no-brainer.
Yeah, especially in shallower, head-to-pointed leagues, too, which is his better format.
If he's anywhere close to this, which I don't think he will be.
I definitely looking to jump on Corey Seeger in those types of leagues.
We have three big-name hitters who are dropping as well.
Mookie Betts down from 47 to 59.
Rafael Devers from 53 to 64.
Austin Riley from 70 to 80.
Scott, three, you know, big names that we've talked about a lot for the past decade or so.
Are you looking to buy the dip on any or all of those three?
I have them ranked all three of them about a couple rounds higher than they're going here,
at least by the recent ADP.
So yeah, I guess I'm buying the dip on all three.
I think part of it is just, okay, when other players are moving up,
somebody has to get pushed down.
And these three, Mookie bats, Austin Riley,
and Rafael Devers,
they're all coming off,
disappointing seasons,
one of their worst and recent memories.
So they're just,
and people are just tired of them.
They're just like unsexy picks right now.
And so nobody's looking to elevate them.
They're naturally falling
by other players being elevated
rather than anything happening recently
to change their value.
And I think there's reason to be wary of all three.
Mookie bets, obviously,
disappointing year. He's 33 now. That always comes with concerns. But to see the glass half full,
the way he finished the season, final 47 games for rookie bets, he slashed 317, 376, 516. And it wasn't just
the top line numbers that improves. Average eggs have lost he was a couple miles per hour higher
during that 47 game stretch. So to me, that was pretty strong indication that what he was
battling what he was struggling with earlier
dated back to that preseason illness
and all the weight he lost
I mean he just did not look like physically
Moogie Betts did not look like himself
for most of the season
and I think he got back to form there at the end
obviously still one of the prime hinders
in the best lineup in baseball
so I think at this steep discount
I think that's a pretty easy call.
Raphael Devers, of course,
theoretically still in the prime of his career,
his numbers after going to the Giants,
the batting average especially got worse.
And because San Francisco has a reputation
for not being such a hit of friendly venue,
especially for left-handed areas,
I think maybe people are tying Rafael Devers drop off to that.
But if you look at the actual power production
at Oracle Park, it was fine.
Really,
The main thing that changed was the strikeout rate exploded.
And I don't know that we could tie that to venue.
I kind of see as a fluke for Raphael Devers.
I think the track record is strong enough.
And he's still in the prime.
Like I said, prime of his career.
I think he deserves benefit of the doubt.
Austin Riley, kind of the same thing.
Still in the prime of his career, a great tracker.
I understand in his case, it was back-to-back years of underwhelming production.
but a lot of that is tied to the timing of injuries
because he was taking off in 2024
before suffering a season ending injury.
Like he looked like he was back on track from a slow start.
He's always been kind of a cold,
a guy who starts the year cold and picks it up midseason.
He was taken off in 2024.
Then came the injury.
Of course, he missed a lot of last year with injury as well.
I still think the exit velocity,
debt is strong.
And I still think he's the cheapest of the three on this list.
He's eligible of the three at the weakest position, third base.
And so given that, you know, pick 80 for a guy who has shown very recently second round upside and is, again, is in the prime of his career,
I think that's an easier gamble to take at third base where you know it's going to be hard to come away with high-end production.
anyway. You're right, Scott. These are not sexy picks, but to quote Steve Carell and the 40-year-old
virgin, I'm not trying to be sexy, man. Trying to win my league. And I think these three could
probably help you do that. Let's take a quick break. We'll be back right after this.
Welcome back in FBT Express. We're taking a look at ADP fallers that we are trying to buy the dip
on if this price remains. And next up, we have Ozzy Albies who is down from pick 160 to 176.
and I think Scott, people are scared off by this wrist injury that he had
that he was dealing with the first half of the season
and then suffered a fractured hamate bone in the final month.
Unfortunately, he was starting to pick things up,
but I get why people are worried at 176,
that feels like enough of a discount.
Yeah, that's the thing.
It's sort of what I was saying for Austin Riley.
Coincidentally, they happen to play on the same team.
If you're just looking at the numbers from the last two years,
it's going to be pretty scary,
but you have to look at them in the full context
of the injuries they were dealing with.
I do think Albies is a more concerning case with Riley
because for him,
the underlying data has never been particularly strong, for one thing.
And two, the injury he suffered at the end of last year,
broken hamate bone,
that has a tendency to have lingering effects,
at least in the short term.
It can sap players of their power.
It doesn't always happen, but considering we just saw with another hand slash wrist injury for all these,
him suffer from a loss of power for like half a season, I'd worry he'd be even more susceptible to those effects from the handmade bone.
That being said, it is a whole off season of rest.
And we did see before the broken handmade bone signs of him looking like himself again.
And I think he is still that player.
I think he is still the early round second baseman.
and we've known him to be for most of his career,
still in his late 20s,
so prime of his career.
It's just particularly given the lingering effects
we saw from a different hand wrist injury last year,
you have to be wary of it happening again
with that broken handmade bone late in the year.
That being said, second base,
you're not going to get stud production there.
There aren't many sources of it.
so if you can get Ozzy Albiz at a discount for the upside,
is it worth that little bit of a gamble?
I think it is in most cases.
Of course, the deeper the league,
the less likely I am to risk it.
You know what?
If Ozzy Albies is healthy enough to swim in those big old fish tanks,
probably healthy enough to swing a bat.
And we'll learn more.
That's what I'm thinking.
If you haven't seen the videos, they're hysterical.
So check them out.
Last name on this list is Jonathan Aranda,
down from 171 to 187, somebody, Scott, that you have long loved.
And now he's falling down even further.
Are you buying?
Yeah.
I don't really get this.
Me neither.
No.
And I think there's already reason to buy the dip on Aronte, even before this latest dip.
because his breakout season,
it was clearly looking like a breakout season last year,
but long-away to breakout.
He made the All-Star team.
But then he got hurt again,
missed most of the second half.
So he doesn't have the big totals we were hoping to see.
And there are platoon concerns.
His numbers against left-handers are underwhelming.
The Razor team that likes to platoon heavily.
Sure, he could fall victim to that.
Maybe he's just getting squeezed out
at a fairly deep position,
like first base.
But, you know, as late as he's been going recently,
that's more like your corner infield spot for a batting average standout,
who I think has 25 homer upside.
I think it's a great pick.
The data loves him.
Obviously, it looked like he took a step forward.
Let's just hope for improved health and consistent at bats for Ronda,
both of which I think are a safer bet than that.
not. All right, for more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to our full-lane podcast,
Fantasy Baseball today on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for
listening to Fantasy Baseball Today Express, and we will be back again later this week. Bye-bye.
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