Fantasy Baseball Today - Cam Smith Breakout Game, Rough Pitcher Outings & More! (6/18 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 18, 2025

Cam Smith just had his breakout game (3:30). ... The Rockies blasted seven homers against the Nats (9:04). ... News (17:39): Rafael Devers might play first base with the Giants. ... Xavier Edwards is ...hitting well but not running enough (27:29). ... Will Warren keeps racking up strikeouts but remains inconsistent (38:32). ... What to do with Jesus Luzardo, Matthew Liberatore and other questionable pitchers (42:33)? ... Have you thought about these five big topics (49:38)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:00:51). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow FBT on TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. What's up and welcome in Tough Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, June 18th. I am Frank Sample joined by Chris Towers today on the show. Kind of a rough night for pitching, not all around,
Starting point is 00:00:34 but just some bad ones tonight. We got Cam Smith's breakout game, Rafi Devers' Giants debut, and much more. But Chris, congrats to you and your Florida Panthers. Donning the Jersey. Back to back, man, Dynasty? It's a dynasty. Sunrise, Florida, Title Town, USA, baby.
Starting point is 00:00:55 They're going crazy at the Grand Lux Cafe. They're tipping over. They're lighten couches on fire. Sunrise Boulevard. It's the most boring suburb in America where the Panthers have their arena. It's very funny to me. I am pretty sure that's where Scott took me out for dinner
Starting point is 00:01:15 when we met up in Florida. It was great. I enjoyed it. They're banging pots and pans outside of the Flanagan's on Flamingo Road. Flanigans, I also went to. Oh, Flanagan. Nando de Pino's recommendation.
Starting point is 00:01:29 It was awesome. It's great. I loved it. The real Stanley Cup is the green plastic Flanagan's Cup that every single person in South Florida has in their cupboard somewhere. Yes, so congrats to you. Honestly, I don't know a lick about hockey. It's like the only sport I've never been able to get into. I never played it. So maybe that's part of it, but I saw that they won. So congrats to you, Chris. Let's jump in. Can you believe it? Wow. All right, let's get into
Starting point is 00:01:57 players of the night. And Chris, I think that game finally went final here. Cam Smith. Breakout game. Smith, yeah, two home runs. First home runs in, I think it was almost exactly two months for Cam Smith. He went four for five, three RBI, a double, four hard hit balls. And I do wonder if it's just taking him a little while to catch up. You know, like he came out of the gates and really struggled. Then in May, he started hitting for a really high batting average, but he was sacrificing power. for it. And then maybe this is what it starts to look like when he, when the game slows down and, you know, he starts to figure it out. Like it's one game. He hadn't had many multi-hit games in the last couple of weeks before this. But this is a big game. And because Cam Smith is such a talented young player with so much upside, I think it's worth treating it as if this is the start of him figuring it out just because if it is, this is your last chance to get him. And I think, you know, this was someone number eight pick in last year's draft, only played 32 games as a
Starting point is 00:03:13 professional before making his major league debut. A slow start would make sense. So I'm willing to treat this as if it's the start of a breakout just because if it is, it could be huge. If you look at over his last 30 games for Cam Smith. He is batting 308 now with two home runs because of tonight. 15 RBI, 14 runs, two steals, and in 813 OPS. So he has been hitting well. He's been hitting the ball hard. I mean, during that stretch, it is a 91.9 average exit velocity.
Starting point is 00:03:52 The problem for Cam Smith is a lot of it is line drives and ground balls. So launch angle, and I think we heard that. I think someone made the comp of like Alec Bome coming into the season. And so launch angle is something that he's going to have to work on here. But man, if he can ever tap into any type of pullside playing his home games in Houston, obviously there is a lot of potential there. I did see this tweet from Chandler Rome, who covers the Astros. Cam Smith is the fourth youngest player in Astros history to have a four-hit two-homer game,
Starting point is 00:04:27 the three who were younger, Carlos Correa, Joe Morgan, and Russie. Stobb. So yeah, a huge game there for Cam Smith who is 56% rostered, has third base and outfield eligibility. Do you think a game like this requires a must-add tag
Starting point is 00:04:45 for Cam Smith? Yeah, I think so. Look, there are leagues like jerks and pro far is coming back in two weeks. He's going to be the number two hitter for the Braves and he's only 28% rostered. I think it's likelyer that Jerks and Profar is more useful than Cam Smith.
Starting point is 00:05:01 So if they're both available and you're looking for an upside play, I might prioritize jerks and pro far. But I think Cam Smith, it's entirely possible that he just takes off and becomes a star. Like we've thought that was within the realm of possibility for him all along. And like I said, I think you should treat this as if it's the breakout because if it's not, whatever. Most players you pick up on June 18th aren't going to be useful for the. the whole season. He has the potential to be not just useful, but must start. So I would treat it as if he's a must add player right now. And what's especially interesting about it, if you think back to
Starting point is 00:05:45 last year, this is around the time that Jackson Merrill and Jackson Churio really started to take off as well. And look, I'm not sure Cam Smith is the same level prospect as those guys, but he was a highly regarded prospect coming into the season. So perhaps he did just take some time here. I think an interesting either or here is Addison Barger, who's also been hitting well and a fun way for the Blue Jays to walk it off here on Tuesday night. Bo Bichette comes up game-tying home run in the ninth inning. Boom, back to back with Addison Barger who walked it off here. And he's hitting 264, eight home runs, 819 OPS, hitting the ball hard, expected stats look good.
Starting point is 00:06:24 Also right around 60% rostered. So, I mean, that might just be a decision, a decision straight up. Who would you rather have, Chris? Addison Barger or Cam Smith? I'd rather have Camp Smith. I think he's the more talented player. There's less of a platoon concern there. I think it's more likely we've already seen the best of Addison Barger.
Starting point is 00:06:45 And I don't think that's the case with Camp Smith. Yeah, I hear what you're saying, man. And I know that Cam Smith was the better prospect, but Barger's data is so good, man. 93.5 average X-Exiv velocity, barrel rate is great. 285XBA, 520x slug. I would go with Barger, but I totally understand
Starting point is 00:07:04 we were saying that this might be your last chance to go ahead and grab Cam Smith. Barger's got to be more rostered already, right? No, he's right around 60%. Oh, okay, that's surprising. Yeah, so they're both in a similar range and you might have to make that decision. So I say Barger, Chris is Cam Smith.
Starting point is 00:07:22 If you're listening, go with your heart, or whoever you like more on the podcast. Just ask Scott. Yeah, there you go. Go tweet at him. Let's talk about my players of the night I keep doing this, I'm kind of cheating But I'm just gonna go with all the Rockies
Starting point is 00:07:34 And get it out of the way because it was a big game Much needed, they blasted seven home runs as a team On the road no less here And just gonna run down the line Hunter Goodman, we keep talking about him One for five with his 14th home run Now has seven home runs in June Hitting 285, 14 homers
Starting point is 00:07:52 848 OPS on the season I'm gonna update the rankings on Wednesday trying to figure out how high to get Hunter Goodman in the catcher rankings. It's an interesting talking point. I could definitely move him ahead of Logan O'Hoppy, but then you get some... Yeah, he's gotten cold, yeah.
Starting point is 00:08:09 Herrera, Jainer Diaz, Salvador Perez, like, are you ready to move Goodman ahead of any of those names? Not really, no, I don't think so. I understand if you want to. I understand if you have him ahead of Augustine Ramirez as well. I think that's perfectly reasonable. I haven't done it yet. Mm-hmm.
Starting point is 00:08:29 All right, so yeah, I'm going to move Goodman up to 9th at least. There's an argument for him to be higher, but obviously being a top 10 catcher in this current environment is a pretty good thing right now. Yeah. Let's talk about Ryan McMahon, who went two for four with a walk in his 11th home run and got off to a very slow start since the beginning of May, 42 games.
Starting point is 00:08:49 He's hitting 274 with nine home runs, 22 runs, 20 RBI, and an OPS around 900. overall, Ryan McMahon has a 94.7 average exit velocity. He is crushing the ball. He's down to 52% rostered. I don't think he really matters in points leads, Chris, just because he strikes out so much, it's like a 30% strikeout rate.
Starting point is 00:09:12 But if he was dropped in any Roto leagues for sure, but even category leagues where you could stream him when he's at home, I think that's fine. Yeah, I think fine is the word for Ryan. Ryan McMahon. We've been doing this long enough with him where he has these stretches where he looks really good. It always ends up being a low to mid-700s OPS bat. It always ends up being 20 to 23 home runs. It's actually not even 20 to 23. It's been exactly 20 or 23 for for Ryan McMahon. So that's that is one where yes, he's hitting the ball hard. I don't know how much
Starting point is 00:09:55 I care about that just because the track record's so long for Ryan McMahon. I think he is what he is. Yeah, he just got off to such a slow start that if he gets the numbers to where they should be and where they usually are, that means he's probably going to be pretty good the rest of the way to get those numbers to where they should be. Again, he's 52% rostered. I would very clearly take Cam Smith over him. I would take Addison Barger.
Starting point is 00:10:16 But if those guys are gone, you're in a Categories League. I would take a look at Ryan McMahon. Tyro Ischrada is on the board with his first home run of the season, and he's, He's been hitting well lately. He's up to a 288 batting average. A problem here he left after getting hit by a pitch on his fingers. So it sucks because the timing not so great here. Again, he was hitting well, picking things up.
Starting point is 00:10:38 17% rostered. Deeper league name, I think you can look at leagues with middle infield spots. Again, he's kind of playing him in the right matchups when he's at home, but also got to make sure he's healthy after getting hit by that pitch. Welcome back to Michael Tolia, who returned on Monday. He went three for five with a double don. here, three RBI, and he was hitting well in the miners, and I just want to remind people of what Michael Tolia is capable of. Last year, from June 1st on, he hit 21 home runs with
Starting point is 00:11:07 10 steals and an 800 OPS. So there still is some upside here. He's very streaky. There's lots of strikeouts, 17% rostered. But Chris, if he was dropped in like a 15-team Roto League, which is pretty likely, I'd probably take a second look here at Michael Tolio. Look, I was wrong on Michael Tobler coming into the season. I thought he was going to have a breakout season. He had a 358 expected Wobah last year and underperformed it by one of the biggest margins we've ever seen from Iraqi. The upside is clearly here. I think he could hit 245 with a 30 homer pace the rest of the way. Of course, I thought that coming into the season and it didn't happen. So I think he's worth adding.
Starting point is 00:11:57 I did add him in one league on Sunday night. And it's possible that he's just a super streaky hitter or a super volatile hitter. And when he's not hot, he is incredibly cold. But when he's hot, he gets really hot. So I'm willing to buy in. Yeah, at least in the deeper leagues. Anything shallower than a 15-teamer and only leagues, no, we need to see. a lot more, but, you know, in leagues that deep, it's, you're almost looking for anyone
Starting point is 00:12:27 as a pulse. So, uh, especially someone who has an ounce of upside. Yeah, I would, I would have some interest in Tolia just in those deeper formats. And in even deeper leagues, Mickey Moniac is picking things up. We talked about him yesterday. One for four with a sock and a shoe in this game. Last seven, he's hitting 429 with four homers and a stolen base. I know he hasn't been playing every day, but these are the Rockies we're talking about. They need talent on the field. And Mickey Moniac is producing. So I think he's going to get a chance to play here. Very, very deep league stuff.
Starting point is 00:12:59 And only 15 team roller leagues with five outfielders, Mickey Moniac. Just a name to look at there as well. Before we hit our first break, reminder two, sign up for the FBT newsletter. If you haven't already, if you're watching on YouTube, you can scan the QR code. That will take you right to the website
Starting point is 00:13:13 where you can sign up for free. Chris, get people sell it a little bit. What do you got going on? What should people expect from the FBT newsletter? Oh, well, every single, day you get about 3,000 to 4,000 words sent to you, recapping the previous day, looking at the top waiver wire targets, the biggest standout, it's all the news you need to know. Sometimes I'll throw in just kind of a random feature if it's a slow day, you know, something I've been batting
Starting point is 00:13:42 around. So tomorrow it's, you know, just making the case for why Juerks and Profar is a must ad player. He made his rehab debut on Tuesday. He's going to hit second for the Braves on July 2nd. And I had some concerns coming into the season or after the suspension, excuse me, that like, if they knew he wasn't going to be there for the postseason, would they really play him every day? Well, there's seven games under 500 right now. They just need to get to the playoffs before they worry about that. And their left fielders have like a 500 OPS combined. So, yeah, Jerks and Prophers going to play every single day at the top of what should be a pretty good lineup. I think he needs to be basically universally rostered. All right. And big thanks to those watching live. Make sure to
Starting point is 00:14:29 hit the like button and subscribe on YouTube as well. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. News and Notes and in Raphael Devers's introductory press conference with the Giants, he said he is willing to play defensively wherever they want him to, which is objectively hilarious, Chris, after declining to play first base with the Red Sox. He was in the lineup as the DH batting third. In his Giants debut, he went two for five with an RBI double. But apparently, we'll field ground balls at first base,
Starting point is 00:15:03 which opens up the possibility of playing there at some point this season, which would be welcome. I don't really want Devers to be util only for fantasy next season. So get us those 20 games at first base if you can. Yeah, and I've seen. people who, I don't know, are pretending like they're confused about this. Like, oh, he was willing to, he wasn't willing to do it for the Red Sox. And it's like, yeah, he wasn't willing to do it for the Red Sox. He made that perfectly clear that I went back and
Starting point is 00:15:31 found multiple instances of Alex Cora saying one thing in the offseason. It was he's our third basement. I think the talk about moving him has been overblown. We have no plans of moving him. And then they signed Alex Bregman and immediately want him to move. And then the day Tristan Kossas got hurt, Alex Kora went out and said, we have no plans to ask him to play first base. I don't know why we would even ask him. He's gotten comfortable. Why would we do that? And the next day, Craig Bresel asks him to play first base. So like, I just, I think it was, I don't, I will not play the field for you, the Boston Red Sox after the way they handled the situation. And look, man, maybe Craig Breslo will end up being a very good president of baseball operations or whatever title he has. Maybe he's got a really great eye for talent.
Starting point is 00:16:24 I don't know. He's probably a smart dude. I think he has a lot of work to do on the managing people part of this. And I think he clearly mishandled this situation. And I am not at all surprised that Raphael Devers is willing to switch positions for a team that actually wants him. the Red Sox just didn't seem like they wanted him. And I think that's the bigger problem. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:16:51 And I know some people were asking about Giants prospect, Bryce Eldridge, what's going to happen there? Giants Brass already came out and said that he's going to continue to focus on first base as well. And that's something they've already talked to Raphael Devers about. So perhaps in the future it's a situation where, you know, if Eldridge makes it and he's a legit major league player, you know, maybe they share first base in DH, something like, that, but it does sound like Eldridge will continue to focus on first base.
Starting point is 00:17:19 Communication. Who knew? Yeah. It's key. It's vital. Tyler Glass now threw two innings and about 40 pitches in a live batting practice on Tuesday. He's slowly working his way back. Will Vest passed all tests and has been declared ready to pitch. He suffered a finger injury on Sunday, but seems all good for now. Luke Weaver threw a 20-pitch live batting practice on Tuesday. first time facing hitters since suffering that hamstring injury.
Starting point is 00:17:48 We'll be interesting to see who the closer is for the Yankees once Luke Weaver is back. You have references a few times already, Chris, but jerks and pro far will begin a rehab assignment with AAA on Tuesday, which, you know, is already in the past. So I don't know why I said it like that. He went he went two for four with a walk, I believe. He has started a rehab assignment currently suspended for PEDs, but is eligible to return on July 2nd. 8% rostered is Jerks and ProFar Is he someone you would call a must
Starting point is 00:18:20 add all formats, even three outfieler leagues? Yeah, I think so. Yeah, I mean, that he certainly was last year. He may not be that good again, but I think the upside's absolutely there. I mean, I saw like Chase Burns is already 60% roster. It's the same situation.
Starting point is 00:18:37 Right? Like, you're just stashing someone with the hope that they will figure it out. Nick Hertz, Jack Haggleyone, those guys were getting up to like 60, 70% rostered, I think Jurekson ProFar at least has to be at that range. And I'd say
Starting point is 00:18:52 100. Yeah. You might have answered this earlier, but would you rather pick up Cam Smith or stash Profar? Because ProFar's roster rate is low right now and it's not like he's not going to have a big game at the Major League level that convinces
Starting point is 00:19:08 everyone to add him. So I think you can make Smith more of a priority, but I think Profar has well, certainly a higher floor. So, yeah, I think it's close, but I would prioritize Smith. These are the most added outfielder's right now. Evan Carter's at the top. Would you take pro far over Carter?
Starting point is 00:19:29 I think I would, yeah. What about Joe Adele? Yes. Jeff McNeil. McNeil does have second base eligibility, but I'd still go pro far. You love you. You love Jeff McNeil. I love that. He's been really good for, like,
Starting point is 00:19:44 almost a year now. Yeah, he has. And Willie Castro, who does have an OPS over 1050. We'll talk about that in just a second. He is eligible everywhere, right? Like four different eligibility.
Starting point is 00:19:57 Second, third, shortstop outfield. Yeah. That's probably team dependent, but I think pro far is a better player. Yeah, let me address this now. So, Fantasy feud last night, there is a bit of a scandal involved here because I asked you guys for
Starting point is 00:20:13 players with an OPS over 1050 in the month of June. You said Willie Castro, Scott said Ronald Ocuna, I said no to both of those. It turns out that was a lie because, and I don't know why, but I was using MLB.com to look at stats, you know, leaders in June, and their qualifications must be different because when I looked at Fangraphs, Ocunia and Willie Castro were both qualified and had OPSs over 1050. So I apologize. I clearly, I think, what this means is that I actually won. There you go. Double or nothing, triple or nothing. It goes to Chris. Emmett Sheehan will return and start Wednesday against the Padres in 11 and a third
Starting point is 00:20:53 innings in the minors this season. It was a 397 ERA.97 whip. 21 strikeouts to one walk with a 23% swinging trite. Incredibly small sample size. Want to get that out of the way. But this is someone who had sleeper appeal a couple years ago. 24% rostered. What size leagues, if any, Chris, would you be looking to add Emmett Sheehan? I think 12-team Roto Leagues, it's okay to add him. And I will say it's especially, it was especially worth adding him this week before he debuted and you would still potentially have that opportunity because if your lineup locks for the week, you can stash him in an IL spot for this week, get a look at him
Starting point is 00:21:37 this week when he makes his debut and then decide whether you want to activate him next week or not. It's tougher to say that in a daily transactions league, but yeah, I think it's worth taking a shot. I don't expect I'm at Sheehan to go six innings tomorrow or anytime soon really because it's the Dodgers and he's coming back from Tommy John surgery. But the stuff is really good. It's been there on the minor league rehab assignment. He's averaging like 96.4 with his fastball is actually up from 2023. So there's plenty of
Starting point is 00:22:09 upside here. It's just the floor. is in the basement here. Yeah. And in his final rehab start, he threw 63 pitches. So I would expect 65 to 70. I don't think the Dodgers will push him past 70 pitches here on Wednesday. Again, that's Emmett Sheehan. AJ Puck will visit Dr. Neil E.Troge after experiencing more left elbow discomfort. Max Scherzer is aiming to throw 70 to 75 pitches in his second rehab start at AAA on Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:22:41 If all goes well, his next start would come with the Blue Jays. Tyler McGill was placed on the IL with a right elbow sprain, and I know Sean Mania is getting close, so he could be a fill-in as soon as next week, I feel like, for the Mets. Frankie Montas has been a disaster on his rehab assignment. And they were going to be working on his mechanics anyway, so I'm not surprised that there's been some shakiness there. Sean Mania is 66% rostered, so still out there in some leagues.
Starting point is 00:23:18 Yeah, no, I think Shamanai is a very fine stash. Gabriel Moreno was scratched from the lineup due to right hand soreness. Luis Heel is scheduled to throw against batters on Saturday, his first time doing so, since suffering the lat injury. They're hoping that he returns after the All-Star break. Bryson Stott was back in the lineup after hyper-extending his elbow on Monday. Trevor Rogers has been added to the Orioles taxi squad and is expected to start Wednesday against the raise.
Starting point is 00:23:45 The numbers in the minors this season have been terrible. But he did make one star with the Orioles earlier this season and he pitched really well. Six and a third shutout with five strikeouts. So I don't think you should add Trevor Rogers anywhere outside of AL-only leagues, but it's a name to watch. And Adam Mazur, who I still wish his name was Adam Mazer,
Starting point is 00:24:07 would be much better. It's Adam Major. He is expected to start to make a start with the Marlins at some point this week. And in the minors, he's been okay this season 362 ERA 122 whip, 8.3K per 9. He's 1% rostered, similar to Rogers and only league sure. Name to watch, but let's see where it goes from here. Let's take a look at some waiver wire hitters outside of the ones we already talked about. And Addison Barger, we already mentioned him.
Starting point is 00:24:35 Xavier Edwards, with his first stolen base since returning from the high. He went three for five with his 12th steal. He's hitting 396 since returning, but Chris, we need more steals. I mean, he doesn't really provide anything else. This is his first start in 14 games since coming back. He also has two caught stealing, so, I mean, he's tried, but hasn't been very successful.
Starting point is 00:24:57 69% rostered for Xavier Edwards, that kind of sounds right. Yeah, I don't think there's any reason to roster him in a points league, and he's on pace for like 75 runs and he's been batting lead off pretty much all season. That's really bad. And that's, by the way, giving,
Starting point is 00:25:19 that's just the 56 games he's played. That's not like the overall pace. You know, that's giving him the benefit of the doubt for the games he's played. He has 25 runs in 56 games. And the problem with Xavier Edwards is he stole 31 bases and 35 attempts last year. And he's been a good base dealer in the month. miners. He is not very fast. I was just looking at his sprint speed. I can't believe how low it is.
Starting point is 00:25:43 Well, it was only 78th percentile last year, which is obviously better than it is now. It's 62nd percent of, but like he has not had elite speed. And you see that on defense especially. He's a really poor defender at shortstop. So like, he needs to be a lot better as a base steeler to really matter for fantasy. The batting average is good. It's kind of like a one and a half category profile right now. Like if he's a 35 stolen base guy like his pace, okay, that's fine, but it's not particularly impactful anymore when he doesn't do anything else. So I don't think he needs to be any more rostered than he currently is. Let's move over to Alec Berluson, who has been hitting well three for five with his sixth home run and two RBI. Last 26 games, he's hitting
Starting point is 00:26:35 3.59, four homers in OPS over 900. Exit velocity, 91.6 miles per hour during that time. And he has started every game except one since May 30th. So, I don't know how Scott did this
Starting point is 00:26:52 yesterday. I'm going to have to ask him. I don't know how to see quickly how many lefties he's faced like in a time period. But, I mean, if you know how to look it up, go for it. But yeah, Burleson has played every game except one since May 30th. So he's either playing against some
Starting point is 00:27:07 lefties or they have faced no lefties recently. And even with that, Brolinson's been hitting really well. So 57% rostered, it's tough, Chris, because I think this profile plays well in a points league, but we really kind of need assurance that he's going to play every
Starting point is 00:27:23 day for him to matter in that format. Yeah, he has started seven games against lefties all season. He's nine for 30, batting 300 against lefties for what it's So perhaps they're gaining confidence in using him. Maybe.
Starting point is 00:27:43 You know, they've had a few injuries lately. Newpar had missed a couple days, right? Jordan Walker was on the aisle. So maybe that was clearing up some opportunities. But yeah, he's only started seven of 25 against lefties overall. So maybe those seven have come lately. I don't know how to check that. My guess is he's just not really playing a ton of
Starting point is 00:28:08 against lefties and it's just the schedules worked out in his favor so far. Yeah. I like the skill set here, man. I made this comp in the off season. He kind of reminds me of Josh Naler. I don't think there's as much power, but just how much contact he makes. And again, his average exit velocity is 91 miles per hour. You know, if he ever optimized the launch angle a little bit, like, you know, we just saw
Starting point is 00:28:31 21 homer nine steel season out of him last year. So I still like the skill set. 57% rostered. I think that's probably fine for now for Burlinson, but I mean, if we start to see him play against lefties and play every day, then I think,
Starting point is 00:28:45 you know, maybe he's a name that can matter in points leagues as well. Javier Baez continues his Renaissance season three for four with a double dong, and so far in June, he's hitting 340 with a 937 OPS. He's third base shortstop
Starting point is 00:28:58 and outfield eligible. Problem here is he still sits out some games every now and then Chris, this kind of feels like a better story for real, life than it is for fantasy. Javier Bias. Yeah. Yeah, there was a like a really good week in there where he was doing a lot, but maybe it was two weeks, but it had been pretty cold since then. I don't think there's much reason to buy into it. The underlying numbers don't really back it up.
Starting point is 00:29:29 It's a great story, but not something you really need to buy into for fantasy. What about Luis Rehnhefo who's picking things up? Two for four with a run and RBI last seven games. He's hitting 346, two homers, one steel, 923 OPS. And mentioned him yesterday as one of the biggest underachievers, according to expected stats so far of the season. He was really good last year. Wouldn't surprise me if he kind of takes off here.
Starting point is 00:29:53 22% rostered, second and third base eligible. Kind of a deep league name here, but, you know, Renhifo is someone, I think he was like a top 175 pick in all draft. So if he was dropped, would you look back at Luis Renhifo? The thing that's really tough about Renhifo is last year was a big outlier, both in terms of batting average and steals. He had 24 steals on 31 attempts. He had 300.
Starting point is 00:30:16 He's a 250 hitter for his career and like a 65% stolen base guy. And he's pretty slow. 38th percentile in sprint speed this year. It was 37th percentile last year. And he hasn't really been running. So, like, I think he can be useful, Luis Renhifo, like that 275 batting average. Okay, that can be pretty useful. Maybe he pushes it to 280.
Starting point is 00:30:43 I just don't know if he's going to do him a lot else, you know? Yeah, it's not like he has good, like, raw power. Yeah. The biggest thing going for him last year was that Ron Washington was just so aggressive on the base pass. Not he himself, because I don't think Ron Washington is very fast at this point in his life. You know, the team was aggressive, and I did want to quickly pull up where they rank.
Starting point is 00:31:05 I feel like they haven't stolen many bases this season. Yeah, I don't think that it doesn't feel like, because, like, Adele's pace has been down. It doesn't feel like we're getting a ton from, well, we're not getting a ton from Renhifa. Netto has been running a decent amount. Wow, the Angels are 29th in steals this season. This is basically just Netto.
Starting point is 00:31:27 And last year, they were 12th. Okay, I thought they were better, but I mean, still, 12th. You know, they had 133 steals of the team last year. Everybody had the green light. This year, their second of last, it's still the same manager, so kind of surprising that they haven't been as aggressive so far this season. Some names in the deepest of leagues. Wenzel Perez has quietly been solid for the Tigers.
Starting point is 00:31:50 Two for four with his fifth homer. He has homered in back-to-back games. He's hitting 316. He has an OPS over 1,000. And Dylan Carlson, who is now on the Orioles, is he a thing? I don't know, three for four with his second steal.
Starting point is 00:32:04 He's played almost every day since May 24th, which is a 21 game span, where he's hitting 33 with four homers, two steals, an OPS over 900. Chris, do either of these matter in deeper leagues?
Starting point is 00:32:17 Wenzell Perez and Dylan Carlson. So I'll admit I have not looked at Dylan Carlson. The underlying numbers don't really suggest that there's much going on here. even like the last 50 plate appearances, the ex-Wobos 3-41.
Starting point is 00:32:33 Okay, that's useful. But when your hot streak is like a slightly above average hitter, that's not really, I think, worth getting excited about. Perez is potentially really interesting. His quality of contact metrics are phenomenal. 91.2 mile per hour average exit velocity, expected batting average 332, X slug 588. like the expected stats
Starting point is 00:33:00 suggest one Seale Perez is one of the best hitter in baseball right now. He had a 291 X-Woba last year. That's 115 points lower than his current one in a much larger sample size. He was not an especially special player in the minors. I think one Sele Perez is just hot
Starting point is 00:33:18 and it's not really worth chasing. If you're the type of person who wants to play the hot hand, his is sizzling right. now. That's the best I can say right now, though. Yeah, and he's just a name for deeper leagues. I will point out the pull-the-air percentage for Wenzell Perez, 36%. Yeah. So, even if you don't fully buy into the quality of contact, him keeping that up, I mean, if he's pulling the ball in the
Starting point is 00:33:47 air that much, you know, he might be able to make it work. All right, let's take our final break. When we return, we'll talk some waiver-wire pitchers, some rough pitcher outings and a couple other things. We'll do all of that right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Let's take a look at Waverwire pitchers. The first name in the shallowest of leagues, Will Warren, 77% rostered, and he had an interesting start against the Angels. It was a quality start, six innings three runs with a career high, 11 strikeouts, had 14 whiffs on 93 pitches. Obviously, it's a great matchup here against the Angels. They strike out a lot. The ERA and WIP just remain kind of untenable here, Chris, but, but, But the strikeouts and the underlying numbers,
Starting point is 00:34:28 like everything seems to love Will Warren. I just, I don't know if it's all going to come together. Like maybe at some point, but I don't know, he's still so, so inconsistent this early in his career. Well,
Starting point is 00:34:39 and the problem is that's kind of been the Will Warren problem the last couple years, even in the minors. He had a 591 ERA in 2024. I know pitching in the International League is not easy anymore. It's become a really tough place to pitch, but,
Starting point is 00:34:55 it's been a long time since Will Warren has had a low ERA. You got to go back to 2023. So I like this skill set. I think there's some interesting stuff going on. The underlying numbers are much better. And I think Will Warren is certainly a hold. At 77% rostered, I think you just hold him. It's a two-start week.
Starting point is 00:35:20 You probably added him. I would guess he was lower than that before this week. Hang on to him. See if he can start to turn it around. But the inflated ERA is, yeah, tough to stomach right now. Are you buying into any of these three? Ben Brown with an okay start against the Brewers, five innings, two runs, five strikeouts. The whiffs were down in this one.
Starting point is 00:35:40 Michael Soroka, quality start against the Rockies. Chris add another one to the checklist. Quality start against the Rockies. Six innings, three runs with a season high, nine strikeouts for Soroka. And Slate Cicconi, a solid outing at the Giants. Five innings, two runs, six strikeouts, 14. on 82 pitches continues to do some interesting things here with Slate Cicconi. Any interest in him, Michael Soroka or Ben Brown?
Starting point is 00:36:07 I think Ben Brown and Michael Sorroca are very similar. Really, really have two pitches. Yeah, really, really good breaking ball. And they have both very rarely thrown a new kick change. I think they both in the last like two weeks have introduced a kick change. And that's worth watching. but it has not been a good particularly good pitch for either of them yet. So that's the one thing that is holding them back.
Starting point is 00:36:37 They've both got an elite breaking ball, though. Michael Soroka Slurv has been really good. I just don't know if that's enough. And both are right around 40 to 50% rostered. I don't think that needs to be higher. I will say Soroka. You don't want to start him against the Dodgers later this week. He does get the Angels next week.
Starting point is 00:37:00 I think that could be pretty useful. I think Soroka as a streamer for next week is pretty interesting. All right. And just wanted to mention Kyle Hendricks, party like it's 2016, I guess. He owned the Yankees, six shutout innings with nine strikeouts, 13 whiffs on 98 pitches. Nine strikeouts, the most in a start for Kyle Hendricks, since September 18th of 2020.
Starting point is 00:37:24 So I don't really think this matters much for fantasy, but I mean, the Yankees are just in a rut right now. The Yankees are cold right now and Kyle Hendricks caught them at a good time. Aaron Judge is really slumping. I don't expect that to continue, but good for Cal Hendricks. He did it. I have no interest in that in Kyle Hendricks. Aaron Judge, 0 for 4 with three strikeouts in this game.
Starting point is 00:37:51 41% strikeout rate in June leads all qualified hitters. The Yankees haven't scored in 29 innings, and they have lost five in a row. So, ha, Bronx, bombers, who? What's going on here? What do we do with these pitchers, Chris? Jesus Lozardo, we thought he was back. And then he had another bad one, this time against the Marlins.
Starting point is 00:38:09 Five plus innings, six hits, four runs, four walks, four strikeouts. The whiffs were there, but struggled to throw strikes. 57% of his pitches for strikes, four walks, a season high here. He's just kind of going through it. He's nowhere close to a drop. but I think he's just a start. I get using him in a two-star week because I used him anywhere I had him, but I don't know.
Starting point is 00:38:34 I might think twice about using him next week. I mean, come on, man. It's against the Marlins, you know? Well, sure. One start ago, he had 12 strikeouts against the Cubs. I kind of just think you start Jesus Lazzardo and you just hope he pulls out of this. I think the start to start upside is too high. And like this was a bad start.
Starting point is 00:38:58 It was nowhere near as concerning as the the two bad starts prior. This if if not for the two bad starts, the really, really bad starts where he gave up 21 runs, we don't even think about this. We don't give this start a second thought. Yeah. It was bad, but it was a run-of-the-mill bad start, not something that I'm like I think dropping Hazel's Lazzardo would be a huge mistake. I agree with that completely. Like, I'm nowhere near that level. But at the Braves next week, I don't know, their lineup hasn't been that great.
Starting point is 00:39:36 They still have talented guys, but it's... I'm starting them. What about Chris Bassett who had a quality start here and, you know, pretty okay, pretty solid start. I don't really, you know, but I'm going to talk about them in a negative way, basically here. Because if you think about the start that he got off to, now his last 11 starts for Bassett, 486 ERA and a 138 whip under a strikeout per inning. Still doing a good job, limiting walks, limiting hard contact, and getting ground balls. So I think he's kind of in that Jose Barrios range, Chris,
Starting point is 00:40:07 but is he, he's not just like a must start every time out, right? It's kind of more based on matchup, I think, at this point. Yeah, I mean, look, the problem is I don't know if would you have said coming into this start, yeah, Arizona, good matchup, start Chris Bassett. No. I don't know how much. the matchup matters. And the other problem with Chris Bassett is, even when things are going well right now, it's a lot of base runners. It's been a 130 whip all season, 138 over the last 11 starts. That makes it tough. I think he's probably just a matchup's play, probably starting him more than not, but certainly not a must start guy. Is he a definite hold? He's 96% rostered. I think he's out. there, you know, like, I think I'd rather take the flyer on Jacob Reziorowski, but you missed
Starting point is 00:41:01 the boat on that one already. I don't know if anybody else is out there. There might be someone in the, you know, in a handful of leagues, but there's nobody obvious coming to mind to drop Chris Bassett for. But that's not to say I'm opposed to dropping Chris Bassett. What about Matthew Liberator, who bounced back with a quality start against the White Sox, six innings, two runs, four strikeouts, zero walks, but he had just four. four swinging strikes on 86 pitches in this one. He had allowed 11 hard hits, 95.7 average exit velocity. So feels pretty fortunate to come away with a quality start here.
Starting point is 00:41:38 And his previous three starts before this one, it was an ear ray over 10, a 193 whip. Just kind of feels like he's hitting a wall here, Chris. What are we doing with Matthew Libertor? I'm holding him in head-to-head points league because he's a spark. I think in Roto, I'm totally fine. looking for something else more interesting. I don't know what that is right now.
Starting point is 00:42:00 But I don't think he's someone you can be open to dropping. What about Shane Smith who had a clunker on the other side? Four and a third inning, six runs. Five of those earned, three walks to two strikeouts. And actually,
Starting point is 00:42:16 this was his first time allowing more than three earned runs all season for Shane Smith. Overall, it's still a 285 ERA, a 122 whip. But two of his last four starts have been pretty rough. 79% rostered, also a SPARP. So is this just a hold in a points league?
Starting point is 00:42:33 What do we do in category leagues? Yeah, holding points. I wish Scott was on. I know he's been more impressed by Shane Smith. I... The Arsenal still looks pretty interesting to me overall. I think he's interesting. I don't think he's nearly as good as his ERA.
Starting point is 00:42:51 That I agree with. I think he's more like a kind of like a three, five to three, 370-R-A guy? Yeah, I would say closer to four even. And part of the problem is he's just continued to struggle holding his velocity deep into starts. You know, he'll start out 96-97. And by the fourth, fifth, sixth inning,
Starting point is 00:43:10 when he gets to the sixth inning, it's more like 93, 94, 95. He's got good extension. The overall arsenal, like you said, looks pretty good. But I just, I don't know if it's all there yet. Yeah, he has at least. four pitches that look good to pretty good. He gets whiffs on his fastball,
Starting point is 00:43:29 25% whiff rate on that pitch. The change-up and curb ball have whiff rates over 35%. So I definitely think the White Sox found something here with Shane Smith. I also don't think he threw many innings last season in the minors. So he's another one that maybe
Starting point is 00:43:46 as the season goes on, we kind of see a little bit of fatigue. So 94 in a third innings. So he's up to 72 and two-thirds. You know, once we get up over a hundred, you know, maybe we start to see a little bit more fatigue here. Maybe some shorter starts from Shane Smith as well. What do we do with Jack Leiter, who had a good matchup here against the Royals, and he crashed and burned. Five and two-thirds, eight hits, six runs allowed, three homers allowed in this one. Twelve hard hits, 95.4, average exit velocity, a 4-40 ERA, a 129 whip. He's kind of been, able to like fake his way through it
Starting point is 00:44:25 Chris like there have been some good outcome starts here but the walks are trending up the strikeouts are down I think Jacklighters are drop I have no idea why he is 83% rostered that that doesn't make any sense I think it's name value honestly yeah I
Starting point is 00:44:40 he showed some interesting stuff early on I still think there are skills here that are worth chasing but he has not shown nearly enough this season to be 83% rostered. I don't understand that at all. Yeah, out of all the names we just talked about, I think he's probably the most dropable. Yes, I think Jack Leiter should be 35% rostered at best.
Starting point is 00:45:07 All right, Chris, have you thought about any of these things. I have five little topics here that we're going to quickly run through. P. Crow Armstrong did it again, one for two with a walk and his 19th home run, a bomb. 452 feet hit off the scoreboard in right field and it actually came against the lefty as well. He entered Tuesday as the third overall player in Roto, the fourth best hitter in head's head points. Still lots of season left, but I'm crazy.
Starting point is 00:45:34 I've at least kind of thought about it. He's kind of tracking towards being a first or second round pick for fantasy next season, right? I mean, look, as that... Sorry, I just caught myself. You know how we all have like our verbal crutches that we... I mean, look, I think I've said it like six times. today. I'm going to try to not say it again.
Starting point is 00:45:57 Pete Kerr Armstrong, I have been very skeptical of what he's done this season, and I don't think he's nearly as good as he has been so far. I don't think he's a top five player in fantasy, but... You just earned at least five mentions from Cubs fans. Yeah, that's fine.
Starting point is 00:46:14 Nobody really yells at me on Blue Sky. It's nice. I have Peaker Armstrong at 40 in my overall rankings right now. So that's not that far from being a second round pick. And like in the trade values chart that's probably going up tomorrow, I have him one spot behind Wyatt Langford. I have him five spots behind Brent Rooker, seven spots behind Jaron Duran.
Starting point is 00:46:46 That's basically a coin flip across the board. So if you want to take, him over any of those guys, I have no problem with that. It gets a little more confusing when you have like Jackson Merrill who had a full season that was really, really good, although Peek Armstrong's been better this season than Merrill was last season. I don't know if maybe Merrill had a three-month stretch that was as good. It's possible, but I'm not sure. But yeah, I don't, Pete Chromstrung already is not far off from being at that point anyway. So yeah, I think it's absolutely worth having the discussion. I have him as my
Starting point is 00:47:22 14th ranked outfielder right now. I have him behind Jazz, behind Jaron Duran. I think I'm going to move PCA above both of those guys. Duran has been fine this season. He hasn't lived up to what he did last year or I think what we were expecting. Then you get into Truro and O'Neill Cruz and James Wood and there's an argument for it. I don't think I'm ready to move him ahead of those guys. But yeah, I think PCA is bordering on a top 12 outfielder right now. And look, the longer he does it, the more we have to buy in and we'll have discussions about what that's going to look like for next season.
Starting point is 00:47:57 I mean, look, Jesus, I did it again. He's 17 in my outfield rankings. It's a little lower than it would have been last week because Kyle Schwerber's outfit eligible now. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:48:14 He's not far from being top 12. I have no problem with that. I don't think he's this good, but I'm not going to just keep being stubborn for the sake of being stubborn either. I'm willing to have that conversation. If you want me to say he's definitely a second round pick next year right now, I'm not going to. There's so much season left. Yeah, there's 90 games left.
Starting point is 00:48:41 Yeah. And look, if he does this for the rest of the season, then he's a first round pick. He's a bona fide first round pick. So, yeah, there's still a lot that going to happen, but it's tracking that way right now. Speaking of tracking, Cal Raleigh continues his insane season. Three for six with a sock in a shoe, including six RBI. He's up to 27 homers and eight steals. It is June 18th.
Starting point is 00:49:04 And I think we are tracking towards one of maybe the best fantasy season we have ever seen from a catcher here. Yeah. If he keeps anything, I mean, the last calendar year is something like four. 49 homers and 15 steals. Jeez. Already you're talking about one of the best stretches by a catcher of all time. Like you have Mike Piazza hitting 360 one year and Joe Tori hit 361 year and Roy Campanella had a 40 homer. There's been some pretty good seasons out there by catchers.
Starting point is 00:49:40 But if Cowrally actually has a 40 homer 15 steel season like he's on pace for, yeah, you're on the short list of best seasons ever by a catcher. in fantasy. So I don't think he's this good, but it's been going on for a really long time now. Let's talk about Andy Paez. Breakout, kind of looks like it's for real. Four for four with a double dong, three runs, three RBI, and he is now up to a 293 batting average with 15 homers, 49 RBI, six steals, and an 845 OPS. He has lowered the strikeout rate this season. He's down to 18%. Andy Paas, someone who had legitimate prospect pedigree. The expect, the expect expected stats continue to creep up.
Starting point is 00:50:22 You know, Chris, when this hot stretch started, the statcast data did not back it up. And so I heard what you were saying, and I was a little bit skeptical as well. Expected stats are there now. They look great. So I think he entered today as a top 30 player in Roto. I'm not ready to say he's, you know,
Starting point is 00:50:40 he's that level of breakout. You know, he's a top 30 player rest of season, but, I mean, he's at least a top 36 outfielder, right? and like a top 150 player, something like that, I would imagine. I have been very skeptical of Pahas, but he turned the expected stats around really quickly, way quicker than I expected. That was, like you said, the expected stats were not backing up the actual production for a long time. And all of a sudden, it's a 344X Wobah and a 348 Wobah coming into today's game.
Starting point is 00:51:16 Strikeout rates way down. He's, I believe he pulled. pulls the ball a lot. Yeah, pulls the ball in the air, a decent amount. So I'm significantly less skeptical today than I was two weeks ago. And certainly less so than a month ago.
Starting point is 00:51:34 I'm not, I don't know if top 36 is something I'm willing to do yet, but top 50. In the outfield, by the way. Yeah, yeah, outfield. That's a conversation worth having.
Starting point is 00:51:48 Sure. Yeah, I already have them at 46 in the outfield. And if I'm just eyeballing it, right around the back end of the top 36, I have a Rosa Rana, Ian Hap, Brian Reynolds, Michael Garcia, Tommy Edmund. I think Pahas is in that mix, man. Yeah, so I'm looking at it and a jungholy. who has slowed down quite a bit. He's slowed down quite a bit, yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:20 I would put Pajas ahead of him. And I have, I have Jungle Lee at 38, so. Breton Doyle, he's been bad all season, but the quality, the expected stats are much better. He still plays a course field. We've seen a full elite outfield season from him. I would take Pahas ahead of him. Tyler Soderstrom has slowed down.
Starting point is 00:52:40 Mikel Garcia has still been pretty good. Yeah, right around that range, though. I think that's the right range. Yeah, I think that's the right range. like 150-ish overall. 30 to 36 in the outfield ranks, something like that. Yeah, it's more like 44 for me looking at it, but I think it's sort of splitting hairs.
Starting point is 00:53:00 A couple others here, Vlad Jr. hit a mammoth home run, three-for-four with his ninth homer, 112.1, exit velocity, 448 feet, his first home run since May 29th. And he's just been a letdown thus far. I'm always hesitant to kind of like, flat off because we saw from the middle of June on last year he just took off and had an amazing season so he's capable of doing that again it's just it's frustrating that he goes through these
Starting point is 00:53:27 stretches when we know what he's capable of you know chris a hundred percent it's i don't know you know we can say oh just elevate the ball but clearly it's not that easy and it's basically what six full seasons worth of plate appearances at this point He's up to 3,800. Yeah, that's about six full seasons. And one elite season, four months of elite production in 2024. And then other than that,
Starting point is 00:54:01 it's been right around a high 700s, low 800s OPS every other stretch of his career. And he's at an 814 OPS right now. Yeah, it's frustrating because the power especially should be much better. And this is another guy who, The expected Wobah right now for Vlad is what it was last year. Now, we talked down on yesterday's podcast.
Starting point is 00:54:24 Take that with a grain of salt. The ball's not traveling as far, and they haven't updated the expected stats formula yet. Even so, I think he's been better than a 350 Wobah. But he's also underperformed his expected Wobah more often than not in his career. And so if he, if, you know, just eyeballing it, if it's a 370 expected Wobah is what he actually should have. and he has a 349 actual mark now.
Starting point is 00:54:52 You know, maybe he's not that far off and he's just bound to frustrate us. I don't know. Entering Tuesday, Vlad Jr. was on pace for 18 homers and 71 RBI. I mean, he was a borderline first round pick. You know, it's just, it's not enough. Marcel Ozuna, two for four,
Starting point is 00:55:09 with a clutch, bases clearing double here on Monday, and we learned about that hip issue on June 2nd, and it's been a rough month so far. 182 batting average two homers 573 OPS so far here in June. I don't really think there's anything we can do, right, Chris? I mean, I think it's just a hold. Maybe, I mean, do you think about benching Ozuna while he's dealing with this hip thing? No, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:55:35 I'm thinking I have one league where I have Ozuna as my DH and I think the only hitter on my bench in that league is Ozzy Albies. Well, I'm not benching Ozuna for Ozzy Albies. It's not like he's been much. better. So how many leagues do you realistically have a better DH than Marcelo Zuna, even if you think he is a lesser hitter than he has been in previous years? I'm going to guess not that many do. Sure, you can bench him, but what if he goes out and has three home runs that week, which he's absolutely capable of? I don't really think about it that way. I tend to, I tend to just start my guys like Marcelo's in, you know?
Starting point is 00:56:20 Fair enough. Let's get into the leftovers here. And two names that you might want to try and buy on while you still can. Jordan Westberg, he's been doing his thing since returning. He's in seven games since coming back. He's sitting 385 with three home runs and a 1275 OPS. But the overall numbers are still lagging. So I think there's still a buy window here on Jordan Westberg. And then a big game for Sal Perez, who went three for four with a double dung,
Starting point is 00:56:44 having a big June so far, but another one where the overall numbers are still lagging. People who are paying attention, they might realize, all right, these guys have already kind of came, like, they're coming around, it's already starting up,
Starting point is 00:56:55 they might not want to sell. But if someone just looks at the overall numbers on either one, Chris, I would still be looking to buy Jordan Westberg or Sal Perez. Yeah, I'm obviously I think more concerned about Perez than Westberg just because he's 35 years old
Starting point is 00:57:10 and he's a catcher. And this is the kind of profile where when the end comes, it will probably come really quickly. He's still hitting the ball hard. There's not really anything in the underlying numbers that you can point to that suggests that Salvador Perez won't be an impact hitter moving forward. So I'm absolutely buying. I'm buying even harder on Jordan Westberg if there's an opportunity
Starting point is 00:57:36 because he's been awesome since coming off the IL and I expect him to be great moving forward. I haven't moved Sal Perez outside of my. top 10 catchers, I don't think. And I don't think I've moved him really. I think he's still like a top eight guy at the position. So I'm still mostly bought in on Sal Perez. I haven't really changed my view on him that much. You have him at eight and Scott,
Starting point is 00:58:01 I have him at six. Okay. There you go. I hate Sal Perez, I guess. A couple of their hitting leftover as Trey Turner did it again. Back-to-back games with a home run. He is having a big June as well. Riley Green, two for four with his feet.
Starting point is 00:58:14 15th home run and 51 RBI tied for fifth most among outfield eligible players in fantasy. Brendan Donovan, a big game, which is nice to see after the recent injury scare, four for five with a double and two runs. He's now leading off for the Cardinals with Lars Nupar slumping. He's batting seventh. Sayas Suzuki continues his huge season, one for four with his 18th home run. Three more RBI brings him to 61. That is second behind only Pete Alonzo.
Starting point is 00:58:42 So Juan Soto two for three with a walk and his 14th home run. His June has just been bananas. It's a 1222 OPS with five home runs so far. Chris, anything to add on those names? Brendan Donovan just, it feels like he should either hit for a little more power or steel bases, right? Like the whole profile would be so much more interesting if it wasn't just batting average and kind of nothing else.
Starting point is 00:59:11 it's he's kind of doing his best louisa rise's impression this season yeah he's i don't think his strikeout rate's quite that low um but he's hitting 323 and at at least one last i checked the expected stats were very good for brendan donovan but it's just that's kind of all it is yeah it's a 14% k rate and a 305 xb a yeah i do think there's a cell window here just because it's such a one dimensional profile and that one dimension is probably not as good as it's been so far but he's fine. And then I do just want to, I kind of,
Starting point is 00:59:46 did you see one Soto get thrown out at first base on the Ronald Acuna? Yeah, that was a sick catch, by the way. It kind of felt like Ronald Acuna was deeking him. I don't know if you want, like, it kind of felt like he was like playing it as if he didn't know where the ball was.
Starting point is 01:00:02 Soto was like yelling. He was yelling at somebody when he was running back. He didn't seem to think that Akuna caught it. It was a great play by Akunia. I don't know if that's, actually what happened, but that was the first thing I thought was he was making it seem like he wasn't going to be able to catch it in order to double Soto off. That was, that was fun. Some pitching leftovers, Brian Wu was awesome up against the Red Sox. Seven shutout innings with
Starting point is 01:00:27 six strikeouts here. 16 whiffs on 86 pitches. And he has gone six plus innings in all 14 starts this season. Seth Lugo, a great outing at the Rangers. Six innings, one run with a season high, nine strikeouts. And David Peterson turned in another quality start. Seven innings, three runs with three strikeouts. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all 14 starts. Two earned runs or fewer in 11 of those. And he has gone seven plus innings in four of his last five.
Starting point is 01:00:59 Anything to add on Peterson, Lugo, and Brian Wu. Still think Peterson's a sell high candidate. Really thinks Seth Lugo is a sell high candidate, but I've been saying that for a year and a half and he keeps making me look dumb. So if you don't want to listen to me about that, I think that is perfectly reasonable because I've been very wrong about Seth Lugo
Starting point is 01:01:21 for 15 months. And what's to say that's going to stop anytime soon? I don't know. But I mean, it's even more extreme than it was last season. Last season he was outperforming his expected stats, but the expected stats were pretty good. said lugo's peripherals right now are bad 453 FIP 404 X FIP 534XERA like that all suggests that Seth Lugo just hasn't pitched well and yet the RIS 305
Starting point is 01:01:51 the whip is 1.11 he's pitching deep into games I don't know I can't make sense of it there there that I just can't make sense of I I don't know maybe I should just never have an opinion about Seth Lugo again I I genuinely have no idea what to make of that. Everything about what we typically view pitching value through in 2025 says he's bad
Starting point is 01:02:16 right now and the results don't. A couple of their pitching leftovers, Casey Mines, a quality start against the Pirates, six innings, three runs two earned with four strikeouts to zero walks. Zach Lattel a quality start against the Orioles, six innings, three runs with three
Starting point is 01:02:33 strikeouts and he has gone six plus innings and 12 of 15 starts. That is Zach Lattel's standout skill is pretty much just going deep into starts. And Spencer Schwellenbach, a little more human against the Mets. Seven innings, four runs,
Starting point is 01:02:49 two homers allowed, still had eight strikeouts and 22 whiffs on 97 pitches. Gave up 10 hard hits in the start. So, you know, there's a little bit of given take here with Spencer Schwellenbach. He has eight plus strikeouts in four of his last five. He's gone seven plus in five of his last seven.
Starting point is 01:03:06 But, look, he's generating whiffs with the best of them, Chris. He also pitches in the zone so much. He is the sixth highest zone percentage that he's just going to be prone to getting hit and giving up home runs. I think it's going to continue to happen unless he just nibbles or throws pitches out of the zone more often. It reminds me a little of early career Aeronola.
Starting point is 01:03:29 I thought you were going to say Shane Bieber. Sure, Shane Bieber, a little bit of that. It's a much wider arsenal. Then Bebers, and wider are some of the Nolas as well. But I think on the whole, he's pitching right to around what he should be. I think the recent uptick and strikeouts makes me think, okay, the 8.6K per 9, bump that to 9. Yeah, it's an even strikeout per inning at least moving forward. I think that's pretty reasonable.
Starting point is 01:04:00 Low 3ZRA, excellent whip. There will just be some headaches along the way. And I think that might just be the case for Spencer Schwellenbach. But the thing with him is the stuff has taken a jump, both from last season and then in season. His fastball velocity is, he's sitting like 97 now. And so you can live in the zone that often if you're going to sit 97 instead of 95 or 96. So that's a big deal. and I think he just mostly stopped worrying about Schwalembourg.
Starting point is 01:04:37 He's just, he's an ace. Call to the bullpen for the D-backs. Shelby Miller got the ninth inning with a one-run lead. He gave a back-to-back homers, took his fourth-blown save and second loss of the season. For the Reds, Emilio Pagan, got the ninth with a one-run lead. He walked two, but picked up his 17th save. For the Cubs, Daniel Palencia, got the ninth inning with a two-run lead.
Starting point is 01:04:57 He allowed a hit, but picked up his seventh save. and that Ryan Presley saved from last week kind of looks like the outlier. I still just think Palencia is the guy. The only thing I will say is I think Porter Hodge is about to start a rehab assignment. So that's something to keep an eye on. For the Guardians, Emmanuel Claude,
Starting point is 01:05:15 got the ninth with a one-run lead. He allowed three base runners, but did pick up his 15th save. And for the Dodgers, Tanner Scott got the ninth inning with a two-run lead and picked up his 14th save of the season. To stream or not to stream on Wednesday, we have Ryan Yarbrough against the Angels
Starting point is 01:05:31 Andrew Heaney at the Tigers Mitchell Parker facing the Rockies Eduardo Rodriguez at the Blue Jays Furlander making his return against the Guardians Sheehan's season debut against the Padres I don't love it Severino against the Astros
Starting point is 01:05:47 Heaney's been good Yarbrough I could see a good start but I don't want to trust it I think Parker and Andrew Heaney are probably the best options here Yeah, I did want to Just quickly look up how the Blue Jays have been against lefties this season And they are
Starting point is 01:06:11 I can't find them Let's see Toronto They are sixth in Wobah against lefties All right, so we're not going to try to do the Eduardo They got a lot of platoon guys there, so Yeah And then on Thursday we have Nick Martinez is facing the twins
Starting point is 01:06:28 Chris Paddock is at the Reds. Eric Fetty is at the White Sox. Adrian Houser gets the Cardinals. Kate Horton faces the Brewers. Edward Cabrera, excuse me, against the Phillies. Charlie Morton at Tampa Bay. Jacob Lopez gets the Ashros. What do you think?
Starting point is 01:06:47 Didn't Kate Horton have a good start against the Brewers? No, he has not faced the Brewers yet. Kate Horton has been solid. He's been okay. Yeah, not terrible. impressive. I think I would put Fetty at the top of the list
Starting point is 01:07:02 against the White Sox. Yeah, against the White Sox, that's okay. Colton Gordon and Jacob Loaf has against the on opposite sides against each other are okay, but could go really wrong for both of them. Charlie Morton's been really good for like a month and a half now. It is at Tampa Bay, though.
Starting point is 01:07:19 That could go south really quickly. I don't really love any of these options, but Fetty, Morton, Gordon are, if you need one, We got a couple of revenge games on the slate. Put me down for Fetty, Kate Horton, and Nick Martinez there on Thursday. That's fine, yeah.
Starting point is 01:07:39 We're going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.

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