Fantasy Baseball Today - Can These Breakouts Repeat in 2023? Tigers-Phillies Trade & More (1/9 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 9, 2023

Before we get into the breakouts, we have unfortunate news regarding Liam Hendriks (5:26). Who is set to close for the Tigers following the Gregory Soto trade? ... Can Michael Harris repeat his breako...ut 2022 (14:36)? ... What's our confidence level in Dylan Cease (18:25)? ... Will Nate Lowe take a step back (22:42)? ... The cost seems appropriate on Kyle Wright (26:46). ... Are we fading Brandon Drury (33:08)? ... Nestor Cortes has been money since the start of 2021 (38:57). ... What is there to worry about with Andres Gimenez (42:43)? ... Can Tyler Anderson continue with that changeup (45:44)? ... It's mostly about health for Anthony Santander (50:18). ... We wrap up with Ryan Helsley who was awesome in 2022 (56:16). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. How will Dylan Sees, Kyle Wright, Andres Femenez, and many other 2022 breakouts follow up this year? Let's find out.
Starting point is 00:00:33 Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, January 9th. Frank Stamph will join by. Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we're firing up the repeat ometer, something we've never done before, but we're doing it for popular 2022 breakouts, and we'll get the thoughts from these
Starting point is 00:00:51 gents on whether or not those breakouts can repeat this upcoming season. And speaking of repeats, Scotty, will your Georgia Bulldogs get it done on Monday night? Well, that's why we're podcasting here on Sunday night for a little peek behind the curtain.
Starting point is 00:01:08 I hope so. Semi-final game was tense and kind of miraculous from the perspective of the Georgia fan. I'm sure Ohio State fans were crestfallen, but yeah, it was exciting. Scott, do you ever say swear words when you're watching sports? Like, do you get like, like, I'm sure you get tense, but I just want to know if like that's, because I assume you're not a person who ever says swear words. Do you, do you say a swear word? when something bad happens in your favorite sporting events?
Starting point is 00:01:42 No, I don't. And as a general rule, I don't. No. I curse like a sailor, whether it's a team I care about or not. I was going to say, you don't want to see me watching Nick's games because it gets pretty bad around here. Yeah, I think you guys are in the majority as far as that goes. But no, I don't.
Starting point is 00:02:03 I was, and you know, it was funny, I was telling you guys, and I tweeted about this at the time. But during that semi-final game, you know, to be honest, I thought, you know, Georgia's just rolled everybody they've played all year. We were on the road as I talked about. We were driving back from visiting my family in Georgia. This was on New Year's Eve. And I didn't have an easy way to watch the game. I'm going to be staying in a hotel room with my family that night.
Starting point is 00:02:32 So I was just like, whatever, I guess I'll miss this game. And then I see they're losing at halftime. and I'm like, oh, crap. So I, like, scrambled to figure out a way to watch it on my little tablet. I'm, like, huddled on the hotel bathroom floor while my family sleeping on the other side of the door. And I keep telling myself, you know, because I'm exhausted, I've been driving all day. We're going to Lego Land the next day. And I'm like, if they go down...
Starting point is 00:02:56 If they go down three scores, I'm just going to call it. I'm just going to bed. And they came really close. You know, 14, I think, was as much as they trailed by in the second half. But I was able to see the comeback, the one point win, the missed field goal at the end, the Ohio State cornerback slipping for the 75-yard touchdown pass. A lot of things went right for Georgia that day. But, you know, hopefully, hopefully they can get it done against TCU, too. and hopefully it won't be quite as,
Starting point is 00:03:35 I'll be fine if it's as dramatic, frankly, that'd be even better. But in the end, a win of any sort would be grand. I mean, you're spoiled now. I am. It's like, you know, you've seen two championships in your lifetime. What more do you need?
Starting point is 00:03:49 Well, yeah, I mean, the Braves in 95, the Braves in 2021, 2021, Georgia, the 2021 season, January of 2022. And now hopefully Georgia can get it done two years in a row. Wow, Scott, you're, You're basically a Yankees fan, man. I know, at this point.
Starting point is 00:04:07 Anywho, no right to complain again, ever about my sports teams. Let's get into it. Normally, we do news and notes in the middle of the show, but there was a lot that happened this weekend, so I think it's only right to start there, and then obviously we'll get into some of those breakouts from last year. Again, will they repeat this upcoming season?
Starting point is 00:04:25 And let's start with the news and notes. So we got some heavy news on Sunday night as White Sox Closer Liam Hendricks has been diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma and will begin treatment on Monday. Obviously, this is much more important than fantasy baseball or even real baseball. Like we're talking about someone's life at stake here. And obviously we're hoping for the best for Liam Hendricks. The White Sox did mention that they won't have an update before opening day.
Starting point is 00:04:50 So as we learn more, as they tell us more, we will obviously let you know. But that's the latest on Liam Hendricks and we're rooting for you. So hopefully everything works out well for, for Liam Hendricks. We had a trade over the weekend as well. Gregory Soto and Cody Clemens were sent to the Phillies in exchange for Nick Maton, Matt Veerling, and Donnie Sands. Gregory Soto last year, 30 saves with a 3.28 ERA.
Starting point is 00:05:16 However, the whip was very high. 1.38. The strikeouts, the swinging strike rate were both down considerably year over year, and the control has been bad for years now. Scott, there's a lot to unfold with this trade, but I guess there's seemingly no value anymore for Gregory Soto, and it looks like Alex Lang could step in as the closer for the Detroit Tigers. Yeah, there's no way Soto's going to be even the first or second choice to close on a team
Starting point is 00:05:44 with Craig Kimbril, Sir Anthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado. And it's not like he brought much to the table ratios-wise. So yeah, just forget about Gregory Soto. Alex Lang does appear to be the running favorite to inherit Soto's role in Detroit. I've seen that from fantasy analysts, and I've seen that even from a tiger's beat rider, Sagi was the presumptive favorite. A lot of times we give, when it comes to team decisions,
Starting point is 00:06:16 we give beat riders more, you know, we find them to be more trustworthy. But I took this as speculation on his part as well. I don't think this is coming from AJ Hinch. Oh, now Andrew or Alex Lang is our closer. He does have closer stuff to, I believe I saw he had two pitches with a swinging strike rate of 25% or better, which is not something you see very often. 11.7K per 9 last year. It's pretty wild, though, which was a problem for Gregory Soto, why we considered him a worrisome closer. You know, the overall numbers for Alex Lang, 341 ERA, 1.23W.
Starting point is 00:06:54 addition to those 11.7K per nine. And led the majors in wild pitches. There you go. Yeah, I mean, I was watching some video of him. It seemed like the sort of pitcher where, you know, he releases the ball and it just goes wherever, you know, like he has no idea where it's going. And AJ Hinch, I mean, really any manager these days, I don't think you can, he seems like somebody who might go the committee route for somebody this unproven. So I guess what I'm trying to say here is Gregory Soto, while he wasn't a closer we felt comfortable with in fantasy, he was allowed to get 30 saves last year. And I'm not as confident Alex Lang will be allowed to do that.
Starting point is 00:07:36 Probably more upside overall than Soto. So I guess you're probably drafting him in about the same spot. But I don't think he's a slam dunk to get the first save for the Tigers or the last save for the Tigers. All right. That is Alex Lang. Last year, he pitched in 71 games. Scott mentioned the ERA and the whip, 19% swinging strike rate for Alex Lang, but 4.4 walks per night. So again, does struggle with control quite a bit.
Starting point is 00:08:00 Chris, the return for this trade, mostly depth pieces for the Detroit Tigers in return. Matt Veerling, I think, remains somewhat intriguing still. He makes a good amount of contact. His average exit velocity, 91.2 miles per hour. That's the 86th percentile. He's really fast. His sprint speed is 97th percentile. He does have the split sting going on.
Starting point is 00:08:19 He's much better against lefties than he is against right. I don't think there's anything there, but I guess if there's a name just to pay attention to in deeper leagues, it's Matt Veerling for me. Yeah, like you said, the skill set is somewhat interesting, but the production across both the major and minor league levels has been incredibly lackluster, so I'm not expecting much more than AL-only relevance for him.
Starting point is 00:08:41 All right, the Dodgers officially designated Trevor Bauer for assignment on Friday. They'll pay the remaining $22.5 million on his contract. Bauer then released a statement. that said he met with the Dodgers leadership last week, and they told him they wanted Bauer to pitch for them this year. Not really sure what happened. Who's right, who's wrong, whatever.
Starting point is 00:09:01 But as of now, Trevor Bauer is a free agent, and we'll see if another team wants to- Will be a free agent in five days as of right now. Or they can still, they have five more days to trade him. Okay, yeah. Before they have to release him. Yeah, so DFA for now, and then we'll see if any other team wants to jump in on Trevor Bauer.
Starting point is 00:09:20 Fernando Tatis Jr. has been cleared for baseball activities. He underwent shoulder and wrist surgeries in September and October, respectively. He'll also miss the first 20 games of the season due to suspension. But, you know, Scott, this is pretty inspiring, I would say, for Fernando Tatis. I guess he's not really going to be limited in spring training at all. And maybe when the 20 games is up, the suspension, he's just ready to go. That would be the best case scenario, obviously. And I don't think it was something I was necessarily counting on.
Starting point is 00:09:55 Certainly if we're seeing it. I mean, it's kind of where we were with Ronald O'Cunia at this time last year, right? If we're seeing him play in spring games and he looks great, then he's going to rocket up draft boards. And it probably, I mean, it would surprise me if he ended up being a first round pick, like a late first rounder when all said and done. He's being drafted more like you have his ADP. I have him rang more like a late second rounder.
Starting point is 00:10:20 I can say that for Fernando Tatis. But I wanted to surprise me... In the NFC, it's 21.5, sorry. Okay, so that's about the same. Yeah. So it wanted to surprise me if that happened. Interestingly, that happened with Acuna, even though he wasn't playing in spring games.
Starting point is 00:10:37 And, you know, I guess with 2020 hindsight, we could say that backfired on the people who moved Acuna up draft boards. But Tatis, obviously, a different case. And you won't be able to stash him in an IL spot while you wait for him to return, which is unfortunate. Yeah. But best in baseball upside, just like Acuna. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:00 And the nice thing is, you know it's only 20 games, right? Like, something could go wrong and he gets hurt, but, you know, right now, it's just 20 games. Right. Well, yeah, I mean, if the rehabilitation continues, as it sounds like it is, then, yeah. Yeah. I've said this once, I'm probably going to say it a lot more times before we get to spring training, before we get to the start of the season. Fernando Tatis is probably one of, if not the biggest wild card in fantasy baseball right now.
Starting point is 00:11:27 Because if he is healthy, ready, good to go after 20 games, look and to prove something, chip on his shoulder, whatever you want to say, then, again, he could easily be the best player in fantasy baseball. Or, you know, if he's dealing with injuries, he could miss a ton of time once again. So there's a really wide range of outcomes when it comes to Fernando Tatis Jr. this season. AJ Pollock signed a one year $7 million deal with the Seattle Mariners, and last year he hit 245 with 14 home runs and a sub 700 OPS. Chris now 35 years old for AJ Pollack.
Starting point is 00:12:00 Roster Resource has some penciled in at DH with Julio Rodriguez, to Oscar Hernandez, and Jared Kellnick in the outfield. Any interest, I guess deeper leagues in AJ Pollock to Seattle? Not really. I mean, you're 15 team leagues. Maybe he's worth a late round dart throw, but it's a park down. grade. It's a bad park for hitters. We saw, you know, Jesse Winker was really harmed by that. Obviously, you know, AJ Pollock's not a left-hand hitter, but still, it just, it's not a player that I think is worth getting excited about at this point. The Carlos Correa saga continues. Andy Martino of S&Y reported that the Mets have grown, quote, very frustrated in their negotiations with Correa, with one source with direct knowledge, saying that they could walk away from negotiations. And I saw another report that other teams have been in contact.
Starting point is 00:12:47 with Correa once again, so just a really, really weird situation all around. We don't know where he's going to play, position-wise or team-wise at this point, but once we know, we'll let you know. The Padres made a few small signings this weekend. They signed former top pitching prospect Brent Honeywell to a one-year deal on Friday. Honeywell has been derailed by injury after injury, only through 20 and a third inning in the minors last season. They also signed Adam Engel to a one-year contract.
Starting point is 00:13:14 The repeat-O-meter. Can these breakouts do it again? 1 through 10. One being, we do not have much confidence in the breakout performance last year. Don't really trust it. Not expecting anything close once again. 10, we have the utmost confidence in this breakout doing it once again in 2023. And Scott, we will start with one of your Atlanta Braves,
Starting point is 00:13:36 Michael Harris, who finished 56th overall in Roto. He averaged 3.2 fantasy points per game, the National League rookie of the year, 2.97 batting average, 19 homers, 20 steals in just 114 games. He was awesome. There are some troublesome
Starting point is 00:13:53 or I guess noteworthy things under the hood when it comes to Michael Harris, where you add on him. Breakout O meter 1 to 10. Yeah, this is a tough way to calibrate it right from the start here. Because I have doubts about Michael Harris.
Starting point is 00:14:10 Obviously, you could make the case to draft them as early as round two. I have him kind of going right at that round two, three turn in Roto leagues anyway. I mean, you just project out his numbers. I mean, it's first round numbers. It's five
Starting point is 00:14:25 category production, power speed, batting average. But he has this profile that I really hate. Hardly ever walks less than 5% of the time and a ton of ground balls, 56% ground ball rate. It makes you wonder how he
Starting point is 00:14:41 was able to produce so much power, especially looking at the minor league track record. Not a lot of home runs hit down there. Now, the scouting report said more power was to come, but he wasn't hitting for much power there, and he hit ground balls at a very high rate in the majors.
Starting point is 00:14:58 So did he overachieve? And then you look at the breakdown, kind of slumped to the finish, because he didn't have a full season's worth of at bats. It makes it harder to know if we saw the full trajectory of a season for him, or if he was just insanely hot for a couple months, and then kind of tailed off to something more sustainable at the end.
Starting point is 00:15:25 So all of this is to say, while I have my doubts, I would still invest at least a third round picking him in a Roto League. So I'm going to say on the breakout meter that puts Michael Harris at about a seven. Does that sound good? Yeah, I think that makes sense based on the analysis there. Chris, Scott mentioned some of the things, the ground ball rate.
Starting point is 00:15:48 I think the splits against lefties, again, we need more of a sample. I know normally you need at least 1,000 plate appearances against, you know, both righties and lefties for these things to kind of normalize. But last year, a 238 batting average, 649 OPS against lefties, chased a lot of pitches. The whiff rate was 26th percentile in baseball last year. Where are you at on Michael Harris, the repeatometer, breaking out. again in 2023. Um, yeah. I mean, like, like Scott said, the, you know, the, uh, calibration is tough.
Starting point is 00:16:21 But, you know, I guess a five. Like, I think there's a decent chance he repeats it because we're talking about a young player, you know, a very young player, 21 years old, um, who is clearly on the upswing. He's clearly developing. He took a step forward last season in the minors before getting the call. But I don't, like, I think he definitely overperformed, you know, from, from, from, from, from, from his underlying numbers to, you know, what he actually produced. Like, most of it suggests that he was, you know, lucky to have an 853 OPS. However, there's the, you know, 21 years old, what he did.
Starting point is 00:16:55 The way he took the majors by storm, the way he, you know, posted even, you know, showing the underlying numbers not backing up what he did. The underlying numbers are still very good, you know, above average quality of contact. Strikeout rate that's manageable, you know, 24-ish percent. So I think generally speaking, like second, third round is probably right for him, even if I think he's probably going to be worse on a per game basis than he was last season. All right. Let's move on to a pitcher who's actually going in a similar range as Michael Harris right now. Dylan Sees, who finished 28th overall in Roto, 2.20-ERA, a 1.11 whip,
Starting point is 00:17:33 227 strikeouts were the fifth most in baseball last year. A true breakout throwing his slider way more than ever before. use it 43% of the time last season. Chris will start with you. Dylan Sees, the repeatometer. How likely is it again in 2023? He's another one where I think he'll definitely be worse than he was last season. I think he was probably pretty lucky to have a 220 ERA. You know, you look at the left on base rate, 82%. The underlying stats, you know, XERA, FIP, they were good, but they weren't, you know, arguably the best pitcher in baseball good like like Seas looked like. And, you know, you look. at the strikeout rate and the walk rate and actually both were slightly worse than they were the
Starting point is 00:18:17 year before. He had a much better quality of contact profile. And so that makes me think that there's definitely going to be some regression because quality of contact is one of those things. It takes a long time to stabilize. It's not clear how much of, you know, the improvements that he showed in going from a 383 expected Wobon contact to a 313, which was one of the best among any starter, you know, That's the kind of thing that like, it could be for real, but we probably need a bigger sample size before we can say. Yes, Dylan ceases an elite quality of context suppression guy. So I would say probably a four. I think he'll still be very good.
Starting point is 00:18:55 But I think the ERA is probably going to be closer to 350 than 220. So, you know, it's not, it's not just burying him. But I do think that there's certainly a lot of room for regression. Scott, something I noticed about the second half for Dillard, Dillen C's as well is that both the swinging strike rate and the K per 9 were down considerably compared to the first half. So second half, 13% swinging strike rate 8.7 K per 9. So it's a little concerning for Dylan C's where are you at repeatometer on him following up his 2020 breakout. So I think Chris's calibration of the repeatometer is a little harsher than mine.
Starting point is 00:19:35 and so I don't know if I don't know if you should compare mine like I don't know that you should compare our numbers to each other yeah well I mean I'm taking it like five is five is he's as likely to repeat as he was as he is to not I guess I don't know these are arbitrary numbers maybe I need to make it a lot harsher then okay so anyway Dylan cease yes I I think he is he is he is frankly, I'm looking at where I have him ranked and thinking, I don't really feel good about Dylan Sees in that spot, because I have him ahead of Shane Bieber and Alec Minoah and Spencer Strider, who I know his ADP is even higher. And I'm looking at all of them and thinking, I like these guys more than Cease. A ton of strikeout potential from Cease, obviously.
Starting point is 00:20:24 He also led the majors in walks, and that is an easy way for a power pitcher to beat himself, is just issue free passes. And I do think he had quite a bit of luck. I mean, in addition to what Chris mentioned, CIS had a 14-start stretch with a 0.66 ERA, which in itself, like that crazy and unsustainable and the big reason why he finished with a 220 ERA overall.
Starting point is 00:20:51 But during that stretch with the 0.66 ERA, he had, let me count them up here. He had 10 unearned runs. Yeah. So six earned runs, 10 unearned runs. And, you know, obviously that's pretty weird and unlikely to happen again for Mr. Seas. Yeah. So to put a number on it, all right, let's lower Michael Harris to a six.
Starting point is 00:21:20 Okay? Okay. And then I'm going to go five for Dylan Sees. All rightyty, fair enough. Dylan Seas right now, the early ADP is 35. He's the fifth starting pitcher off the board over at the NFBC. We know lots of upside for Dylan Seas with the strikeout potential. but man, that price tag does seem pretty, pretty high
Starting point is 00:21:38 when it comes to Dylan C's early on. Let's move over to another hitter, a first baseman here, Nate Lowe or Nathaniel, as he's referred to on FanGraphs. Finished 57th overall, but surprisingly just 2.7 fantasy points per game. He was more aggressive last year. He didn't walk as much,
Starting point is 00:21:54 so I think that's why you see it reflected in his point per game average. He hit 302 with 27 home runs. Oddly enough, the counting stats were not great, just 150 runs plus, RBI, big jump in OPS year over year from 2021 to 2022, 771, and then an 851 OPS last year. Scott, we'll start with you this time. Nate Lowe, big breakout in 2022, the repeatometer for 2023.
Starting point is 00:22:23 I think it's probably like a four. I'm like a lower. I think Nate Lowe is fine. I would be okay with him being my starting first baseman, but few players have the capacity to hit 300 year after year. And so, I mean, if we're taking it from the literal perspective of will this guy repeat his numbers, I don't think Nate Lowe will repeat a 302 batting average. I think the high bad bit, the overall bat at ball profile suggests he's more like a 280 hitter,
Starting point is 00:23:02 which is still pretty good. He had 27 home runs. You know, that might be the high mark for him as well. But I think it's possible he could do it again. So, yeah, I'll stick with four. I don't think his 22 numbers were, you know, just radically off base. But I do think they were probably his career best season,
Starting point is 00:23:23 and he's more like a mid-tier first baseman. Chris, Nate Lowe made some tangible changes last year. He lowered his ground bowl rate from 55. percent to 48%. He crushed left-handed pitching, 330 batting average 920 OPS, and he was much more aggressive. He was swinging the bat more.
Starting point is 00:23:42 He was chasing pitches a little bit more. And normally we don't love those things, but overall, it helped Nate Lowe breakout last year. Where are you at on him, the repeatometer for this season? Yeah, I mean, the thing that really sticks out is how good he was against lefties. He went from pretty even splits in 2021 to a 920 OPS. against lefties versus an 817 against righties.
Starting point is 00:24:05 Nathanielo is a left-handed hitter. Yeah. So that is usually not what you see. And he went from like a 120-ISO against lefties in 2021 to a 206 in 2026 in 2022. And that was really where he stood out. Like an 817 OPS against right-handed hitters, that's fine. And if he did that against both-handedness, he'd be a decent player, but probably not. You know, I think he'd be a fringe starter for fantasy.
Starting point is 00:24:31 and I think that's probably where he ends up as like a low 800s OPS bat. And there's nothing wrong with that. I just think he probably did, you know, run a little hot last season. What's curious about Nate Lowe is, you know, the batting average, the home runs beyond our expectations, obviously, 302.27, like I said,
Starting point is 00:24:53 even with that, and even playing 157 games getting nearly 600 of bats, he only had 76 RBI, He only had 74 runs scored. So I could see a scenario where that batting average and home runs, they go down to the extent we're expecting. And yet, just because he has better run and RBI luck, more help from the supporting cast,
Starting point is 00:25:14 he ends up having a more productive fantasy season overall. Yeah, no, I think that's really well said, Scott. I was going to say something similar where, you know, the steamer projection has Nate Lowe for 271 batting average. His XBA last year was 275. So if he hits 270 to 280 in the middle of, you know, an okay Rangers lineup, I think at least the top five or top six should be pretty good in that lineup. Then, yeah, I think he probably should be closer to, you know,
Starting point is 00:25:39 85 runs or 90 plus RBI, something like that. So some tradeoff with a batting average, but hopefully some more counting stats coming for Nate Lowe. Let's go back to your Atlanta Brave, Scotty, and Kyle Wright was a huge breakout last year. 44th overall in Roto. He averaged 17 and a half fantasy points per game. That was tied for 10th among starting pitchers. mostly because he led baseball with 21 wins. He was the only 20-game winner.
Starting point is 00:26:02 Last season, former first-round pick, finally put it all together. 3.19 ERA, 1.16 whip really leaned into this curveball, which fueled the breakout. Scott, we're coming right back to you. The repeatometer on Kyle Wright following up this breakout in 2023. So I think the breakout was legit. We saw much better control.
Starting point is 00:26:24 The curve ball he threw harder. Got a lot more swings than miss. with it, the ground ball rate was, I'd go so far as to say elite, 56%. Oh, yeah. We are entering a period where ground ball rate might not be as beneficial as it was, but overall,
Starting point is 00:26:42 I think Kyle Wright can sustain a lot of what he did this past year, but he can't repeat 21 wins, I don't think. The major's only 20-game winner, and there was only one 20-game winner last year, too. Like, that's... The Braves may be great, but it's still very, very unlikely.
Starting point is 00:27:03 Kyle Wright gets 21 wins again. So I would suspect that falls by... Who knows how many? Five, ten. Like, he could have a really good season all around and have ten fewer wins than he did last year. That's just the nature of wins. Max Fried through five more innings
Starting point is 00:27:22 had an ERA nearly three quarters of run lower and won seven fewer. games. There you go. On the same team. Yeah. So, and I, you know, just looking at the ERA estimators, it's more likely than not that ERA is going to go up from 319 than down. So if we're, if we're treating this repeatometer by the letter of the law, I guess I'd have to go like three on Kyle Wright. But the thing is, a lot of that regression is already baked into his price tag.
Starting point is 00:27:52 And so I imagine I'm going to draft a lot of Kyle Wright. And speaking of that price tag, he's currently going at pick 118. That is Kyle Wright, just ahead of names like Luis Severino, Nestor Cortez, who we'll get to in just a little bit, and Hunter Green as well. Chris, I mentioned the curveball, fueled the breakout here for Kyle Wright, a 211 batting average against on that pitch, a 15.7% swinging strike rate. The control was much, much improved compared to what we've seen in years past. How much do you trust it, the repeatometer on Kyle Wright?
Starting point is 00:28:25 The profile generally looks pretty good if he can repeat the skills from last year. So, you know, my initial thought when I was thinking about Kyle Wright for this season was, yeah, kind of a, like, good pitcher, but not a great one. I don't know how much upside there is to tap into beyond what he did last season. And there's that walk rate from, you know, the minors and prior to last season and the stints that we'd seen where I think there's some real implosion potential. there for him. And so I was going to say I'm out on Kyle Wright this year, except that, you know, you look at ADP on NFC and he's 1-17. Like he's right ahead of Luis Severino and like literally, basically the exact same price is Hunter Green. And so it's like, oh no, I'm probably going to draft a decent amount of Cowwright just because that that price tag, even if I don't think he's
Starting point is 00:29:15 going to repeat it or even if I think there's some risk that he doesn't. I don't think there's any more risk with him than there is with Lance Lynn or Nick Lodolo or Hunter Green. or other players going in that same range. So I'm perfectly fine with Kyle Wright. I think there's like the likeliest outcome is he probably repeats most of what he did except the wins. You know, what we were just saying about Kyle Wright, okay, yeah, there's a lot of reason for skepticism. He repeats those numbers. Maybe there's some implosion potential, but the price tag is so modest.
Starting point is 00:29:48 And this is something we've talked about, just how sharp the fantasy analyst. and really fantasy players as a whole have gotten in recent years. It's hard to, like, you're not going to find many people who pay full value for a guy with these kinds of question marks. And not just Kyle Wright, who's probably the most trustworthy of the ones I'm about to mention, but also I look at Martin Perez. I look at Merrill Kelly, guys who had great years, but coming into this year, I'm like, okay, I'm not, I'm probably not going to draft them because it seems like they overperformed. But like everybody seems to recognize they overperformed.
Starting point is 00:30:29 In which case, okay, the value is not bad. I might end up drafting quite a bit of them just in case they can come close to last year's production. It's really, this is something that I've talked about a lot with both fantasy football and fantasy baseball. It's very hard to find obviously over or undervalued players anymore. Like when we do like sleepers or breakouts or busts, you know, especially. Super Super's and Breakouts, or Buss, which are more value-driven. It's really hard to find guys that are very obviously under or overvalued, except for Gabe Davis in football this year.
Starting point is 00:31:05 Last point on Kyle Wright. And this is something that the Welsh and I spoke about when we did our New Year's Fantasy Baseball resolutions, obviously for 2023. Rob Silver did a fantastic presentation at first pitch of Arizona, basically pointing out, and this is going to sound so obvious, that the most wins, in fantasy baseball come from pitchers on good teams. It's like a really obvious thing, but sometimes I think we overthink that as well.
Starting point is 00:31:30 Kyle Wright, pitching for one of the best teams in baseball, just had 21 wins. Doesn't mean he's going to repeat that, but, you know, he's as likely, you know, as any of you get starting pitchers. I'd be surprised if he had a sub 350 ERA and didn't get double digit wins. Right, exactly. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:46 But it's like the range is probably like he could have a 330 ERA and probably have a range from 12 to, 18 and I wouldn't blink at any number in that range. Right. And like Ian Anderson had one fewer win than Spencer Strider last year. Wins are wins are kind of stupid. For the reasons we all know. That I think we can agree on. Let's move on to another hitter here. Brandon Drury, who signed with the Angels this offseason. He finished as the 60th overall player in Roto leagues last year, three fantasy points per game. He hit 263 with 28 home runs, 87 run scored and 87 RBI. The problem.
Starting point is 00:32:23 is that Brandon Drury was much better with the Reds, who obviously have a great ballpark to hit in in Great American Ballpark, who have by far the best home run park factors, according to Statcast. But for what it's worth, the Angel Stadium has the fourth best home run park factors. So Chris, we'll start with you this time. Brandon Drury, the rope pito meter, 2023. I think it's probably a one or two. This is definitely the lowest of the ones.
Starting point is 00:32:51 I mean, we're talking about a player who's been in the majors for, what, eight years and had never done anything close to what he did last season. That's not to say that there's nothing there that he can't repeat it, but, you know, 915 OPS in Cincinnati compared to, you know, an eight, what, 15 overall? It's very hard to see that repeating. And, you know, moving away from Great American Ballpark, as we saw last season, was very bad for him. I don't want to say there's no chance that he can repeat it. but I'm very, very skeptical of it. Yeah, I've been working through my positional ranks, and I've got Brandon Jewry buried right now.
Starting point is 00:33:30 I mean, I'm basically giving this guy no chance, which doesn't feel fair, you know, considering the season that he just had. But 242XBA last season, Stackcast says that he would have hit 23 home runs if he played all of his games in Angel Stadium. So 240-hitter, 20 to 25 homers, like, you know, I guess that's okay in a deeper league,
Starting point is 00:33:49 but it just would have been. really move the needle much for me. Scott, the repeatometer for brain injury this season. Yeah, I'm also going to go one here. Chris gave part of these stats already, but 298 with a 915 OPS, a great American ballpark, 240 with the 746 OPS everywhere else, and you look at Drury's career prior to last year, prior to that stint in Cincinnati, and it looks more like the everywhere else guy, the 240 with the 746 OPS. Yes. He is going about 200th overall. That's another thing, yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:25 And he's triple eligible, first, second, third base, the two weakest positions. So, like, he's going behind, like, Harrison Bader. And, like, he's going behind Cody Bellinger right now. So it's one of those ones where it's like, again, I don't think he's going to do it again, but I don't hate the price. Yeah, I mean, if he plays every day, let's say, you know, if he hits 240 with a 740, 6 OPS exactly. That's probably not going to justify that pick.
Starting point is 00:34:55 But if he hits... I wouldn't be that at a second base, though. Yeah, 260. I mean, it would be usable at least. Yeah. It'd be kind of a fringe waiver, why, I guess. And if he ends up hitting, like, let's say his... I don't know exactly what it be,
Starting point is 00:35:09 80th percentile outcome, let's call it, 260 batting average with 20 home runs or so. I mean, that's going to be a useful fantasy player, particular if you're talking about a big roto league like they typically play in NFBC and you know it's worth saying since we've been citing ADP a lot for these players this
Starting point is 00:35:29 the early ADP data we're seeing on this particular site NFBC might be among the sharpest players it's skewed in other ways too it's skewed toward upside but it might be skewed toward intelligence and maybe not intelligence is the right word
Starting point is 00:35:47 But you know what I'm saying? It's skewed toward people who really invest a lot in fantasy baseball. Yeah, savvy players. So when we get more ADP data, when we get the ESPN, the Yahoo, the CBS even, we might see guys like Drury Wright, Martine Perez, who I mentioned. We might see them going higher than we're talking about right now. But for now, the price tax seem reasonable for them. All right.
Starting point is 00:36:12 Let's take a break before we do that. Just a reminder if you're watching us on YouTube to subscribe to the channel. If you haven't already, tap that little notification bell so you know every time we go live or drop a new video. And just a reminder that moving forward in the month of January, we're gonna have three podcasts per week. Most of the time they're gonna be Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday night streams.
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Starting point is 00:36:53 Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. All right, let's get back into the repeatometer, taking a look at some 2022 breakouts and how likely it is for them to repeat this upcoming season. We're jumping back over to a pitcher in Nestor Cortez who finished 53rd overall in Roto, 16.7 fantasy points per game. He has now made 42 starts since the beginning of the first. the 2021 season. During that time, a 261 ERA, a 0.98 whip, 266 strikeouts, over 251 and a third
Starting point is 00:37:27 innings pitched. Chris, we're coming to you. I know last year, first couple of weeks, first couple of months, there was some skepticism on Nester Cortez, but it seems like maybe he won you over a little bit. Where is your repeatometer on Cortez this season? Yeah, I mean, the thing that's tough about Nester Cortez is that the thing that he does best, And it's not to downplay. He is actually a pretty good strikeout pitcher. But the thing that he's done best in the majors is quality of contact suppression. And that's one of the skills that takes the longest to stabilize.
Starting point is 00:37:58 But, you know, we do have, you know, 650 batted balls against him at the major league level since he got to the Yankees over the past couple of seasons where he's been very, very good in that regard. So I think it's fair to assume he'll continue to be above average. And we've got two seasons of him being a. pretty good strikeout pitcher as well. So yeah, my skepticism has mostly gone away. I don't think a 240 ERA is all that likely, but like a three two ERA. I think that's perfectly. Like I think he's actually pretty similar to Kyle Wright in a lot of ways. A better strikeout pitcher, which is not necessarily I think how most people would think about them. But I think he's likely to be a low threes ERA guy who wins a decent amount of games with that team. So I,
Starting point is 00:38:47 I, five or six, you know, pretty good, no, seven. A pretty good chance to repeat. Whoa. Whoa. Yeah, let's do it. Nasty Nestor. I thought I was going to shock the world by giving him a five. We'll pull a classic fantasy baseball today and go with the Marco Estrada comp.
Starting point is 00:39:05 Well, it's, it's, I understand the way you were comparing Nestor Cortez to Kyle Wright. but in a way there are opposites with the advantage going to Nestor Cortez because Nestor Cortez good at allowing a low quality of contact as you pointed out but not only that
Starting point is 00:39:34 that that low quality contact is mostly in the air when and when you're allowing weak fly balls particularly in a post juice ball league those are easy outs in a way that ground balls aren't as easy outs particularly if shifting is going to go down so I think Nestor Cortez has a better chance I mean obviously he only won 12 games instead of 21 but even taking that out of the equation I think he has a better chance of of maintaining than Kyle Wright does and you look at his expected ERA even that was 270 so I'm gonna say
Starting point is 00:40:12 for Nester Cortez. I feel I feel pretty good that this is more or less who he is maybe give him an extra 15, 20, 25 points on the ERA, but you're still talking about a really good ERA
Starting point is 00:40:26 in that scenario. And the price tag for him seems pretty reasonable too. Scott, did you give a number on the repeat number? Five. Okay. Chris giving out a seven. There's only one response that we have for that.
Starting point is 00:40:38 Oh my goodness gracious. Oh my goodness gracious. Indeed. Let's talk about Andres Jimenez, who finished 63rd overall in Roto last year. 2.8 fantasy points per game coming off a career year, now entering his age 24 season. Last year, he hit 297 with 17 home runs, 66 runs scored 69 RBI and 20 steals. Scott, obviously the power and the speed is great. You'd like to see more counting stats if we can get Andres Jimenez to move up the lineup a little bit for Cleveland. Where are you at repeatometer on Jimenez this season?
Starting point is 00:41:11 I mean, I think I'm going to go the cop-out route with a five just because I'm really not sure what to make of Andres Jimenez. He outperformed all his expected stats. A lot. The quality of contact is not that great. But he nonetheless hit nearly 300, had a near 2020 season as a 23-year-old. at the weakest position in fantasy, no less, second base. So we certainly need for him to be about that good. And given how young he was, I mean, it stands to reason the skills are still improving.
Starting point is 00:41:59 So, I mean, I could see it being just a total fake out. And Andres Jimenez ends up disappointing everybody who invests in him to the same extent branded Drury does. but I'm feeling optimistic here. I'm going to give him a five, give him at least a 50% chance of repeating what he did. Chris, Anders Jimenez, if you look at what he did last year,
Starting point is 00:42:20 kind of reminds me a lot of Nathaniel Lowe in that he crushed lefties as a left-handed batter as well. 336 batting average, 887 OPS against lefties, but those expected numbers do leave a lot to be desired. 297, actual batting average, 257XBA with a 466, slug and a 400 X slug. So you know those things you don't really love to see for
Starting point is 00:42:43 Andres Jimenez where you at the repeatometer for this year. And if you dive into the the underlying stats for the for the splits as well this but specifically the handedness splits he had a 336 batting average against lefties a 250 xBA with a 385 x slugs. So there was a massive difference between what the quality of contact metric which was 80.3 mile per hour average eggs velocity against lefties and what he actually did. So that's one that I think I'm pretty skeptical of it. I'm going to say a three for him. All right. Well, that is Anders. Mendes. The early ADP is 86 as the seventh second basement off the board. Kind of a tough one to project this upcoming season. But we'll have some more time to. Yeah, I think I'm going to be out on him at
Starting point is 00:43:30 that price. To deep dive Anders Mendes. Let's take a look at Tyler Anderson. Another signing by the Angels this offseason who finished 58th, Overall in Roto, 257 batting average, a 1-0 whip on the nose, but his underlying numbers, not as good. A 411 FIP, a 404X FIP. The expected ERA was still very good at 3.1. Chris, I'll come to you here to start us off with Tyler Anderson. He leaned into his change-up, which was an elite pitch.
Starting point is 00:43:59 It was awesome. But we know typically the Dodgers just work their devil magic and get the most out of their pitch, really all their players, but obviously their pitch. pitchers have been great the past couple of seasons as well. Where are you at repeatometer on Tyler Anderson this season? Yeah, this is one that I think does highlight the quality of contact metrics because, you know, FIP and X FIP and all those stats mostly assume a fairly static quality of
Starting point is 00:44:26 contact part portion of it. So they're mostly assuming most pitchers don't have that much control over their quality of contact that they allow. And the strikeouts and walks are mostly where pitcher quality comes from. And, you know, we know that that oversimplifies things, but generally speaking, most pitchers do pitch to their FIP and XFIP. You have to, you know, take a big leap with Anderson because he was elite in terms of quality of contact metrics a lot. 313 expected Wobon contact.
Starting point is 00:44:55 That's been good for his career. It's been 3.49. I think you probably expect some regression there. But, you know, it's, it seems pretty unlikely that he's as much of an outlier in terms of the quality of contact metrics he allowed. The Dodgers had really good quality of overall numbers with runners on base, especially last season. I think Anderson, Aureas, and Tony Gonson were top three in Wobo allowed with runners on base last season
Starting point is 00:45:23 or something wild like that. So I think there's a lot of regression coming, but, you know, I think he can be a decent pitcher, but not someone that I particularly want on my fantasy team. I'm going to say a two. And for what it's worth, we know that there will be a shift band this year. The Dodgers led baseball with 52.2% shift rate. So that was the highest in baseball. They also had the most total shifts in baseball last year.
Starting point is 00:45:51 So they're obviously a really smart organization. They put their pitchers in a position to succeed. And that's why we've seen a lot of their pitchers outperform their underlying numbers as Chris highlighted there. Scott, Tyler Anderson, a 256 Babbup last year. was clearly an outlier, 287 for his career. But again,
Starting point is 00:46:10 if he can maintain some of these gains in limiting hard contact, then that obviously explains a lower bad-bip and a lower batting average against. Where are you at? Repeater,
Starting point is 00:46:19 Tyler Anderson, now with the Angels. So I was going to go two as well because, you know, kind of similar to what I said about Kyle Wright, who I gave a three.
Starting point is 00:46:30 Like, I could see, I could see Tyler Anderson following through on the changes he made in 2022 and still being a much more effective pitcher than we knew him to be prior to 2022 because the Dodgers' smart organization, as you point out, they altered his change-up grip
Starting point is 00:46:52 and it became an elite pitch. The bottom just drops out of that. And while it's possible that he's no longer under the oversight of the Dodgers, he'll just lose that. I think more likely, that's something he knows how to do now and he'll be able to keep doing.
Starting point is 00:47:06 it and be an effective pitcher. But he is a 32-year-old soft tosser, little margin for error there, and the numbers were just so good that it's hard to imagine him repeating them, especially now he's with a worst team. Plus he'll probably be part of a six-man rotation now,
Starting point is 00:47:26 so the starts will be less frequent. Having said that, kind of like with Kyle Wright, even though I don't think Tyler Anderson can be what, he was in 2022. Nobody does. And so nobody's drafting it. We've only done two mock drafts so far.
Starting point is 00:47:43 I mean, we have a lot more coming. But so far we've done two. And I think in one of them, I got him with my very last pick in a 12-team league. A guy who had 15 wins, a 257 ERA, and an even one ERA last year. I got him with my last pick. I mean, that's, I'll do that in every draft if it's possible. And it seems like you might be able to, at least based on early ADP, 271 is the price tag for Tyler Anderson.
Starting point is 00:48:07 So again, people are just not buying into anything, really, of what they saw from Tyler Anderson last year, and he is coming at a big discount so far in early drafts. Let's move over to Anthony Santander, who finished 71st overall in Roto, 2.8 fantasy points per game. That made him a top 20 outfielder on a per game basis. In points leagues, he hit 240 with 33 home runs, and 89 RBI career year for Santander.
Starting point is 00:48:34 really just managed to stay healthy. He's been a productive player in the past, but he's really had trouble staying on the field. Santander makes a lot of contact. He hits a lot of fly balls. So he's going to have a lower batting average, but the power does seem pretty legit when it comes to him.
Starting point is 00:48:51 Scott, we'll start with you this time. Santander, the repeatometer this season. I'm going to go... I'm going to go three, between three and four, three point five, let's say. But my skepticism isn't so much the skills is just the health history. Like this is the first time Anthony Santander's come anywhere close to playing enough to reach the 30 homer threshold.
Starting point is 00:49:17 I think if he does stay healthy, is this, I refer to it as like the Mike Moustakis profile, a guy who puts the ball in the air so much that even though he doesn't strike out a ton, it's hard for him to deliver a good batting average. But, you know, he's going to hit enough home runs to make it worthwhile. And that's exactly what Santander has been when he's been able to play enough to have the numbers kind of normalized for him like we saw last year. So I think of him as a more brittle version of Hunter Renfro. And, you know, there's certainly a point when I'd be willing to take him. And he's going decently earlier than Hunter Renfra.
Starting point is 00:49:58 I'll look up the cost on Renfro. But right now, Santander, the ADP is 135 as the 32nd Outfielder. I don't really understand that. Like, there seems to be a lot of Renfro skepticism again. I mean, I'm... I'm totally fine with him. I've kind of made him the cutoff where I don't want my third outfielder to be worse than him. So, like, that is the cutoff.
Starting point is 00:50:20 Like, Hunter Renfro, you know, if I could get him as my third outfielder in drafts, totally fine with that. I'm basically right there with you, yeah. Yeah. Last year, I'm with you, Scott. Now this year, Scott's with me. Chris, when it comes to... Is there a DEP that different? Uh, let's see.
Starting point is 00:50:36 Like a round, right? It's like 15 spots. Hmm. That might be true. So is he going around 150? Is that it for Renfer right now? That's what I'm seeing. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:44 I guess not that different, but it's weird to me that Santander would be the one going ahead when he has, he's much more brittle. It's a profile that I don't love even outside of the injury risk just because it's like, it's really home run or nothing. Like if, and home runs are relatively rare events that there tends to be a lot of fluctuation in the total. So like, he could stay. healthy, have a very similar season next season, and hit 27 home runs. And like, that's not a
Starting point is 00:51:09 huge number, like a huge difference. That's six home runs, but that's probably, you know, 10 RBI because a lot of his RBI are going to be the result of home runs. And it's just like, the, the margin for error with that kind of profile gets really thin for me. So I, it's not a player. I think I'm going to draft a ton, even if I don't think it's necessarily, super unlikely that he repeats it. Yeah, the only thing when it comes to Santander is that Stackass does trust the power quite a bit for what it's worth. 90 mile per hour average exit velocity two years in a row 11.6% barrel rate. He hit 33 home runs. Stackass said he actually deserved 37 home runs. I have a feeling some of that is because
Starting point is 00:51:48 he plays in Camden and yeah, a lot of those guys at Camden. At Camden were the second lowest of any of any park. I think it would only have been lower in Pittsburgh, which is amazing that that's we they have him with 45 in Chicago with the white socks if he was there. That's so annoying. Kind of a wild gap. This Camden Yards thing, like pushing back to left field. I get why they did it.
Starting point is 00:52:12 I mean, you know, their pitchers performed a lot better last year. Okay, I guess it worked out that way. They did, though. Because their opposing pitchers did too. Like, that's always the thing with like, oh, we're going to change. Like, the Marlins always did this where like, we want to have a home field advantage. It's like the other team pitches there too. You know, it's not like your team is the old.
Starting point is 00:52:31 Like, you play more of your game. But like, there is a fine. that whole thing. There is a difference that the Orioles pitchers are bad and don't know how to miss bats and yet they manage to put up respectable ERAs. So I think I think it is a big part of why
Starting point is 00:52:46 they exceeded expectations so much and we're in the wild card race basically to the end is that they're very bad pitchers were able to keep them in games for the most part. But once they get better pitchers like Grayson Rodriguez coming up, then
Starting point is 00:53:02 you know, it it might not matter as much anymore. And we'll talk about this when we get to the first base position, but someone who's really stood out to me, Ryan Moucassel, he had a 15% barrel rate last year. He crushed a ball
Starting point is 00:53:15 and he only had, he had something like 20 or 22 home runs. He was one of the biggest losers in terms of expected home runs last year because obviously he's a right-handed bat that pulls a lot of his fly balls and just the left field getting pushed back,
Starting point is 00:53:28 completely crushed him. That's one of those that I see people on, on Twitter, like Ryan Moundcastle, So underlying stats are really good, and it's like, he's still going to play in that same park. So I don't see any reason to think that's going to be any different. Unfortunately, like, the underlying stats were really impressive last year. He seems to be getting robbed of, you know, some pretty impressive numbers, but it is what it is. You know, you don't want to point out anybody who last year very loudly made the case for Ryan Mount Castle as a bust.
Starting point is 00:53:58 No, I don't, I don't remember anyone's got. Oh, I did. Yeah, yes. Yeah, Chris did. I think I wrote him up as a bus too, actually. Yeah, I think we were all out on Mountcastle. Again, not really his fault. He hit the ball really hard.
Starting point is 00:54:11 He did everything he could. But unfortunately, that left field, very unforgiving there in Camden Yards. Let's wrap up with a closer here. Ryan Helsley broke out in a big way last year. 74th overall in Roto. 19 saves, 9 wins, a 1-25 ERA, a 0.74 whip.
Starting point is 00:54:28 94 strikeouts over 64 and 2-thirds. And what changed for him? Fastball velocity up two miles per hour from 2021. The whiff rate was up on his slider, and he dramatically improved his control once again. Chris, this one's pretty tough for me because I feel like year over year, there is no more volatility than there is with relief pitchers,
Starting point is 00:54:51 and specifically guys who break out and we've only seen do it one year, it's really tough. Without being said, the stuff looks absolutely filthy when it comes to Ryan Helsie, where are you out on him, repeatometer this season?
Starting point is 00:55:03 Uh, is there any reason to think he won't average, you know, 99.6 miles per hour with his fastball again? Because it does seem like that's, that's the key distinction there, right? Is he went from being a hard thrower to arguably the hardest thrower in baseball last season. I do have some data on that, or at least a theory that I'm working up. And I've heard other people talk about this as well. So it's not like I came up with this. But no, hit us with the Frank Stanfield theory. Ryan Helsley is one of the max effort pitcher, like,
Starting point is 00:55:35 relievers in baseball right now. And he actually took a bunch of time between pitches. Now we're being introduced with a pitch clock this upcoming season where it's 15 seconds with bases empty, 20 seconds with runners on base. Last year, Helsley averaged 16.9 seconds with bases empty, 20.7 seconds with runners on. So I just wonder if he can't give that max effort, or if he just has to pitch a little bit quicker than he has in years past.
Starting point is 00:56:03 Like, maybe he just won't throw as hard as he did last year. And as a result, the results won't be as good. But just maybe I'm grasped. I remember when these rule changes were first announced, what was it last fall or was it even before the end of the season. Yeah. Apparently, that wasn't so much of an issue in the miners where they had been trying it out. It was a concern that maybe this would happen.
Starting point is 00:56:32 pitchers having to take less time in between pitches losing velocity, but that it evidently wasn't such an issue. I haven't seen the data myself, and I can't tell you if I'd interpret it the same way as whoever I'm referring to. I don't even know who it was if it was MLB itself. But the, yeah, it doesn't, from what I've read, it doesn't sound like that's supposed to be an issue. Yeah, I think specifically with Helsie, like, looking through 64 innings last season. So there's a natural amount of volatility with any relief pitcher, especially any relief pitcher, whose performance changed so dramatically like his did. But there does seem to be a fairly good explanation for why his performance changed.
Starting point is 00:57:19 And so as long as the skill set remains very good, I don't have much reason to doubt it. It's just, it's a reliever. You know, relievers are inherently volatile. A bad month can make a really good reliever look really bad. Look at Josh Hater last season. Although I think he was bad for that stretch of time. But like it's one of those things that his numbers are probably like there's just an inherent amount of volatility there either way. So it's much, I'm much less likely to invest in a guy like Ryan Helsley who had the one big year breakout.
Starting point is 00:57:52 But like I remember having those same doubts about Liam Hendricks when he had his breakout. And he's been arguably the best reliever in baseball for like five years. So you can go wrong that way too. Yeah. So I think if you're saying, will Brian Helsley repeat a 125 FRA? Probably not. I would put that at one because I bet against anybody repeating a 125 VRA.
Starting point is 00:58:14 But if we're just, if we're talking about fantasy impact, you know, he had 19 saves last year. And if he's the primary closer from the start of the season, he's going to have more than 19 saves. So if he stays healthy, If he gets, you know, at least a 75% save share with the Cardinals, who still have Giovanni Gallegos, obviously, then Ryan Helsley's probably going to be even better for fantasy than he was in 2022.
Starting point is 00:58:45 So I guess I'd put him at a six overall for repeatability. It just depends what number you're talking about. And in terms of those tempo stats, you brought up the name Giovanni Gallegos, he was actually the slowest pitcher, slowest reliever in baseball in terms of between pitches. So he takes a lot of time. Just something to start thinking about.
Starting point is 00:59:08 And we'll have a podcast later this week where we go over all the rule changes and how we think it's going to affect fantasy baseball. The early ADP for Ryan Helsie, just wanted to ask you guys this. Going just ahead of, the ADP I should mention, is 70, going just ahead of Kenley Jansen and Camillo Doval right now.
Starting point is 00:59:25 Jansen now closing with the Red Sox. Camillo DeVal also now has Taylor Rogers in the mix for the Giants, how would you guys rank those three? Helsley, Kenley, Janssen, and Camilo Duval. I have Janssen, Helzley, DeVall, but it's, you know, they're kind of in the same range. I imagine Janssen's early ADP was pulled down
Starting point is 00:59:47 from that time he was a free agent, and maybe it's been climbing since then. Because I think he's, you know, just looking at his career, I think he's a better bet to get a lot of saves than Helsley is. So yeah, Jansen, Heelsley, Doval. Chris? That sounds right. I haven't gotten to the portion of my offseason where I spend any time thinking about relievers.
Starting point is 01:00:09 So that'll come in the next couple of weeks. Yeah. Let me see over the past couple of weeks how much that ADP has changed, basically since Kenley Jansen has signed. And it really hasn't changed all that much. So, yeah, he's still going just behind Ryan Helsley. So that seems like it's going to be a decision point. And if you want to take a closer around that time,
Starting point is 01:00:29 you're going to have to decide Ryan Helsley or Kenley Jansen this season. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball. Today, we'll be back again later this week. Bye-bye.

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