Fantasy Baseball Today - Can These Breakouts Repeat? Jarren Duran, Cole Ragans & More! (1/10 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 10, 2025

To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Can last season's breakouts repeat in 2025? Let's start with Jarren Duran (4:50)! ... Jackson Merrill finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting (8:19)! ... Will Paul Skenes repeat his success (16:56)? ... What about Jackson Chourio (22:00)? ... Mason Miller was one of the best relievers in baseball last season (29:32)! ... News (36:42): Amed Rosario signed with the Nationals. ... Will Cole Ragans follow up his breakout season with another (44:35)? ... What about Michael King (47:06)? ... Are there concerns with Brenton Doyle (49:46)? ... Mark Vientos has elite power but questionable plate discipline (54:18). ... There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm for Jordan Westburg (58:40)! ... Can Hunter Brown do it again (1:02:05)? ... What about Reynaldo Lopez (1:03:45)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy. And welcome in to fantasy baseball today on January 10th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers, first Kokomo Friday of the year. Love it. Today on the show, will the top breakouts from last season repeat it in 2025. We will fire up the repeatometer. So we will calibrate that. The classic, yeah, you know, do it every year. Keep coming back to that one. Yeah. You can't go to the repeatometer well too many times, I always say. You never can. Chris, I've got to say I was depending on you to join me in wearing a Hawaiian shirt, our first Kokomel Friday of the year.

I can change. You let me down. Actually, do I? They might have gotten put. You know what? I'll check right now. But before I do, does anyone else when he says happy Kokomo Friday, does anyone else think he's going to say, have you met Ted? Have you met Ted?

Do you, you guys remember that bit from how I met your mother? That's every time you do it. That's where I think you're going with it. I'm just going to do it one time and see if you like see how you react. Have you met Chris towers? Save until like June. Yeah. Do it out of it.

Everyone's going to be so confused. They're going to have no idea what I'm talking about. But if you know, you know, will these breakouts repeat? So, uh, the repeatometer. One to 10, 10 being you absolutely think that this player can repeat what they did last season or get even better. No way. They're not coming anywhere close to what they did last season. So just to kind of calibrate that up at the top.

And we've talked so much about Garret Crochet and Brent Rooker. They very clearly were two of the biggest breakouts from last season. But I did not include them on this list because, again, we will have more opportunities to talk about them as the offseason goes on. I love that Chris could have shut off his camera while he was changing. But he just left it on. Yeah, I think he hit the wrong button. he's muted. You are muted. I wasn't changing. So I, you know, I'm just throwing the shirt on on tie. I think it's a good look. I love it. It's still cold. It's, but it's, it's, it's Kokomo Friday when it's 15 degrees outside. So I got to keep a sweater underneath. That's true. Well, I was going to say, like, we're at, we're having one of those two short stints in the winter where it's actually kind of chilly in South Florida. I'm extremely upset about this because I'm going down there next week and we're renting a house with a pool. for my mom's birthday.

Oh, and it's going to be like, no, it's going to be like 59 degrees when I'm there. Okay. Well, this is like a rare opportunity

to crack into the winter wardrobe. So there's no way. Everybody's got the hugs out and, yeah, fur coats and stuff. Yeah. I got, you know,

I got to pull out this raddy old thing. Can't, can't miss an opportunity to wear that. Let's talk about Jaron, who was maybe the biggest breakout outfielder, biggest breakout hitter from last season, finished as a top three outfielder in Roto and head-to-head-to-head points, 21 homers, 111 runs scored 34 steals.

He was awesome. I did have concerns earlier in the off-season that the Red Sox would try and sell high on Jaron Duran. The way everything has played out, they already acquired Garrett Crochet. I think maybe they could trade for another pitcher. I kind of feel like Duran is just going to be on the Red Sox now this season. Scott, we will start with you,

the breakout repeatometer on Jaron Duran. So are we going with a number one through 10, like all the other meters and higher means more likely to fit the description? 10 means you think he can repeat exactly what he did last season or get better. Can or will? Will. Because he absolutely can. Will. All right.

I'll stop stalling. I'm going to give Jaron Duran an 8 on the repeatometer. I think he's going to repeat more or less. And the reason I think that is because, well, if you look at his percentages from 2023, where he was less than a full-time player, but, you know, played a lot. They pretty much carried over into last year. The main thing that improved was just he played a lot more. And so I don't think what Jaron Duran did last year was terribly surprising considering. I think he just grew into a full-time player.

and continued to deliver on what he showed he was capable of in a part-time role. And so I think as a second round pick, he'll probably live up to him. Now, I only give him an eight because it's one year. It's a one-year track record of him being an early round type. So maybe nobody on this list can get a 10 unless they were an emerging prospect or something like that. I'm not totally closed to the idea that Jaron Duran will be, we look back on at the end of 2025 and think, man, what a waste of a second round pick.

But I'd spend a second round pick on him, late second round. I do think he's going to repeat it. The only thing I would say, it's an older breakout. And we tend to view those a little more skeptically. I think in Jaron Duran's case, a lot of people don't realize he's 28 years old, which was part of why I thought the Red Sox should at least look into the idea of trading high on selling high on him just because the peak is probably closer to ending than it is for most players who break out. But I don't, I pretty much agree. He's the 21st player in my Roto rankings. I have no real issue with Jaron. The ADP over the last month for Durand, the NFBC ADP, 22.6 as the 10th outfielder off the board, going right after Yordon Alvarez and ahead of Jazz Chisholm, which I think kind of sounds right in the rankings.

One thing that worries me, left-right splits, he was 665 OPS against lefties, 9-10 against righties, but I don't think the Red Sox are going to platoon him. I think if anything, it'll just drag down his overall batting average a little bit, but he has pretty much cemented himself as an everyday player, so I probably should not worry about that. Let's talk about Jackson Merrill, who finished as a top 12 outfielder in both Roto and head-toad points. He was second-in National League rookie of the year voting

behind Paul Skeens, who we will also talk about in just a little bit. But Merrill hit 2-92, 24 home runs, 90 RBI, 16 steals, did all of that as a 21-year-old. And from June on, he was even better than that. It was a 900 OPS from June on. So Chris, one through 10 on the breakout repeatometer, Jackson Merrill. I'll say a seven. I'm struggling with this one because Jackson Merrill is the blue chip prospect.

He is, as you said, he was 21 as a rookie. He might have been 20 when he debuted, right? So like, yeah, he was 20. Those are good reasons to believe that Jackson Merrill is just descending and will get better. Progress isn't always linear. there are both a lot of things to be really optimistic about

in his underlying data. 372 expected Wobha for Jackson Meryl last season actually outpaced what he did over the course of the full season, which was a 352. So that's a reason to buy in. That's 94th percent by the way,

that X Woba. But his home park for a guy who doesn't hit a ton of pulled fly balls, will likely hold him back. He hits a ton of his batted balls up the middle, which is great for batting average, makes him a good overall hitter,

might make him someone who underperforms a little bit moving forward in the way that Juan Soto did when he was with San Diego. It's just a tough bark. He's a young lefty with not great plate discipline. He doesn't strike out very much. There's some Bobby Witt there where, like, the swing decisions aren't great,

but he makes so much contact and so much good contact that it doesn't really matter. but maybe for a lefty who did struggle against lefties last season 646 OPS, I can see some flaws coming up that we don't necessarily see right now, but I still almost entirely believe in Jackson Merrill. Yeah, I wanted to give him a higher grade than Duran actually, because he is the very young high-end prospect living up to and perhaps even exceeding expectations right away.

and he might be the next Bobby Witt, frankly. As good as his numbers were as a rookie, the expected numbers were even better. You mentioned the ex-Wobah just to throw a couple others that maybe people are a little more familiar with, his expected batting average was 303. That's really hard to find any player with an expected batting average over 300.

And Jackson Merrill's expected slug was 534. In a way that goes even beyond Jackson Merrill, I think Jackson, I'm sorry, that goes even beyond the other Jackson. Jackson Turo, Jackson Merrill proved his hitting chops. Hopefully I took the right pauses there so you could follow that sentence I was just saying. And he's 90, or I'm sorry, 81st percentile sprint speed. He only had 16 steals last year, but like that is a number that could go up.

I'm a little surprised by the gap between Jackson TURIO and Jackson Merrill in NFBC ADP, because I have him back to back, and I kind of want to put Merrill ahead. I trust Merrill more to follow up, I think, than Churio. I do have Churio one spot ahead of Merrill because I think it's a little clearer. He's a base dealer. But if Merrill outstole Churier this year, it wouldn't be a huge shock.

So the ADP over the past month for both guys, Jackson Churio at 16.8 as the 8. outfielder off the board, Jackson Merrill at 20, I pick 28 as the 12th outfielder off the board. So about, yeah, like 11 picks of difference there, almost a full round between Jackson Trio. So lots of excitement for Trio and obviously a good amount for Meryl too, but just not up to that same level of excitement. Yeah, it feels unfair to Jaron Duran, but I kind of want to be a little bit higher on Jackson Meryl as well for all the reasons that you guys mentioned. I do wonder if just like, I just defaulted to Churio ahead of Merrill. And how much of that is just.

He was the better prospect. He was the better prospect. But like it was the gap between, I think Churio was like the consensus number three prospect last year. And Merrill was like more like 11 to 15. Yeah, still in the lead prospect. But that's a bigger gap than 15 to 20 or 15 to 25, you know, like the. Sure. it's a tier i guess but that's all also very well educated guesses you know like that that's

like these were two guys who had never play above double a yeah so the fact that one was slightly ahead of one of the other in the rankings probably shouldn't mean all that much i do think it just comes down to the jackson shurio could steal 45 bases I don't think Jackson Merrill can. Also, I think Merrill actually outperformed Chirio this past year, right? Even though Churio had the steals advantage. I think you're right away.

It was only a six steel edge. So that's not, that wouldn't be terribly surprising. In CBS, the counting stats were better. In CBS Rotar ranking, Merrill finished 26 overall and Churio was 32nd. So it's pretty close. But yeah, I like both guys. But if, you know, you're telling me you're getting

Merrill around later, and it might not be fair to Jaron Duran. Something inside of me is just saying don't buy Jaron Duran in the second round, but yes, buy Jackson Meryl in the third round. I don't know why, but it's just, it feels that way. It's difficult to resist the hype factor there with Churrio and Meryl

when Duran feels kind of one-hit wonderish. Again, I don't think he is a one-hit wonder, but kind of one-hunt wonderish, the old breakout. He just kind of feels like yeah, it kind of feels like you're playing with fire with him when Churio and

Merrill. It's like, oh, these guys are going to be studs for years to come. And so you kind of have to make yourself draft Duran ahead of them. At least I do. All right, before we hit our first break, just a reminder that FBT is a finalist for the Best Baseball podcast in the Sports Podcast Awards, and the winner will be determined by a fan vote. So we need your help.

Scan the QR code if you're watching on YouTube or click on the link in the episode description. You click the thumbs up once you get to that webpage, the thumbs up next to FBT. You're punching your info. It takes about a minute, and it's easy as that. Help us bring home the hardware. Voting ends on Monday, January 13th, so get those votes in this weekend. If you can, we really do appreciate it.

Let's take our first break. When we return, more breakouts. Can they repeat? We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Can these breakouts repeat in 2025? All right, it's time to talk about Paul Skeens, who finished as the SP4 in just 133 innings.

Last season, he finished as the NL rookie of the year, a 196 ERA, a 0.95 whip, over 11K per 9, tons of ground balls. Underlying numbers love the guy. He throws 99 miles per hour with his fastball. Can his arm hold up? Well, that's, I guess, something we'll find out this season, but just in terms of pure filth, Paul Skeens is one of the best in all of baseball. Scott, breakout repeatometer 1 to 10 on Paul Skeens.

Yeah, I'm going to put it at a 9. I don't think there's any doubting his ability. just the question of can he take on the ACE workload that will justify a second round or perhaps even first round price tag. And I don't have him one or even two in my starting pitcher rankings because I want to play it a little safer with that. But Paul Skeens was arguably the most hyped pitching prospect ever and then delivered an ERA under two as a rookie. One of the best rookie seasons ever. Yeah.

Arguably the best. Yeah. And he did it. His main weapon was one we weren't even hearing about. This is the amazing thing, that Splinker, which became, I think, I'm just going off memory here, but didn't it become a little less dominant as the season went on? But he managed to, you know, he has a deep enough arsenal that he can kind of vary the looks and find other ways to dominate.

So that's to Paul Skeen's credit as well. And one of the most consistent in terms of hitting triple digits with his fastball, I guess the most consistent ever at doing that. Yeah, he's legit. It's just, is he going to give you the volume you're looking for from a pick that early? Can I ask one question? For calibration purposes. I will allow it.

if Paul Skeens stays healthy for 180 innings gets 250 strikeouts. I don't know what the math on that is, but let's just say. Top five in WIP, which I think he was last year already, all of that. But his ERA rises a run.

Did he repeat it? That's a good question. And I thought about that. Because his ERA was 196. He's not going to do that again. Or, we're underdrafting him as a top 12 pick. If he's going to just be a sub 2 ERA pitcher forever,

he's probably just the number one player in fantasy, right? So his FIP was 244 and his XERA was 250. Let's say that his true talent level. I'll call that. Can he repeat a mid-2 ZRA? There is absolutely no reason to doubt the talent. Whether, if it goes wrong, It's because he's a young pitcher who's never thrown more than 161 innings in a season, I think, is the number.

It's because he's a young pitcher who throws harder than anyone in baseball, basically. It's because he's a pitcher. Like I did my one of the most fun places I write every offseason or preseason is bus case scenarios for the first rounders. And I just did that and he sneaks into the top 12. So I write about him. And it's just, and he's a pitcher. Like there's a lot of ways to go wrong. I don't see a way it goes wrong except for injury, you know?

To answer your question, if Skeens does everything the same but his ERA is in the high twos instead of the high threes, he's probably a top of three pitcher. He's probably number one, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I think as long as they're living up to what people are drafting them to be, that's that sustainment.

Yeah. Right? the ADP over the last month, by the way, 11.8 as the SP1 off the board. For all the great things that we've said about it, about Paul Skeens today, none of us have him ranked as our SP1.

So just putting that out there. You just have to look to last year. We did this with Spencer Strider, who was more proven at the major league level. He made two starts, I think. You know, like that's just, this is not a Paul Skeen's problem. This is a drafting a pitcher

in the first round problem. Also ask me about Terrick Scoopal. I'll have some, I'll have some glowing things to say about him as well. I guess he, should he have been on this list? Probably, right? I mean, he was a breakout. I didn't put him on the list, but he's all of our number one pitcher, so I don't. Probably should have. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. But he broke out, but he was the breakout. He was a breakout easy to see. Everybody was drafting him as a top 10 pitcher, right? More or less. He got a 10 for last year. when he broke out in 2023.

Yeah. There you go. All right, fair enough. Let's talk about Jackson Trio who finishes a top 12 outfielder in Roto. He was top 18 in head-to-head points. He finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Skeens and Jackson Merrill.

He went 2020 as a 20-year-old, which is just crazy to think about. From June on, he hit 303 with an 883 OPS, 16 home runs, 15 steals during that span. Chris, the breakout repeatometer here on Jackson Trio. 10. I'm with everyone. I think he's going to be even better. He was a top 20 hitter in baseball from June 1st on last year. The underlying stuff, you know, we mentioned Bobby Witt with Jackson Meryl. The underlying stuff looks almost identical to Bobby Witt's rookie season. I know Bobby Witt had 20. Oh, he actually, same number of Homer, she stole more bases. I thought Bobby Witt went 30-30 as a rookie for some reason. 20-30, yeah. Yeah.

There's no guarantee that he goes quite on the same linear path that Bobby Witt has where he's just gotten better every season. But given the talent level, given the growth he showed in season, given how strong the overall skill set is, you can nitpick and point to the plate discipline,

which isn't great. His swing decisions aren't exactly what you would be looking for. But like Bobby Witt, he makes so much contact and so much of the contact he makes is really, really good that I really don't see any reason. He's not going to be at least as good as he was last season.

And like I said, I think there is 45 steel upside here. You know, we saw that in the miners. The Brewers weirdly just didn't let him run. There are some, there are weird things with teams where like the Dodgers last year, Shohayotani was just the only person who stole bases, which is a reason why I think Shoha Tani probably doesn't steal as many basis as he did last year. The brewers were incredibly aggressive with everyone but Jackson Churrio. Like, he only stole like seven more bases than Jake Bowers. I'm pretty sure last year.

Yeah. That's one of the weirdest things about their season. I think it was just be yourself, be a great hitter, figure that out, be a plus in the outfield. We'll let you run next year. Like, we want to set the baseline. And I think he's going to get the green light a lot. more often in year two. That's my hope at least. Yeah, 97% percentile sprint speed for Turyo by the way. So I don't think it would shock anybody if he went 25, 40 in year two, something like that. Scott? Yeah, that's definitely within the realm of possibility. And I want to preface this with my expectation as we'll be drafting Jackson Churio in round one next year. But since Chris gave him a 10 on the repeatometer. Maybe I'll say nine, maybe I'll

And I just said a minute ago that I trust Jackson Merrill Moore. I should probably explain why Churio would be more like an 8 for me. I guess the easiest way to sum it up is there's a lot more red on Jackson Merrill's stack cast page than on Churios. In fact, there's not much red at all on Churio's stack cast page when you get, if you look outside of speed and defense, if you look at just the hitting metrics, It's, you know, mid-tier exit velocities, basically mid-tier to bottom third of the league and plate discipline. And the expected stats a lot lower for Truro the Merrill.

But I'm not worried about that. I'm just saying if there was something to worry about, what am I saying? I'm just saying that, I'm just saying that normally for the high-end prospect, who's getting tons of hype. Like the, those raw athletic readings really stand out in a way they don't for Cheerio. But he started hitting the ball harder as the year went on. The production went right along with it. He did it all as a 20-year-old.

I think he has a very bright future. Again, I think he's going to be a first rounder next year. But that's, I'm just kind of, again, creating that contrast between Churio and Merrill. And you got to pay a big price tech to get Turyo, as I mentioned. 16.8 is the ADP over the last month, the eighth outfielder off the board ahead of Yordon Alvarez. Can either of you get behind that? Man, I think Yordaun Alvarez is just among elite players.

I think he's just the most undervalued player in fantasy right now. I get that the county stats weren't there, and I know we're not talking about this conversation specifically, but I think steals are being overvalued in the early round. Yeah. Or maybe it's better to say that guys who do not steal are being undervalued in the early rounds with probably the exception of Juan Soto. Yeah, that's, well, I think he's being undervalued a bit too. He's going, what, eighth overall?

Yeah, seven or eighth. Yeah. And I've been saying some degree of that for like three or four. years now. But I think with each passing year, it gets more true. And the market has not adjusted. Yeah, to the increase in stolen bases. And I understand the argument, well, okay, players are stealing more bases. So that means you need more steals. So you still need to prioritize them. And that's true to a degree. But it's not just that there are more steals out there. It's that there are a lot more players capable of helping in steals. And in a way that doesn't require you to

sacrifice nearly as much in the other categories when you draft them. So to get, you don't have to feel like at the start of a roto draft, you have to draft all the base Steelers till they're gone. That you shouldn't approach it. That was kind of a miserable way to play fantasy anyway, and you should welcome the departure from it. And yeah, I would not consider taking Churio over Alvarez. I think it's just that old feeling of, oh, steals are scarce, I better take them while

they're there. Yeah, that needs to go away. Yeah, I've got Yordon and Jared Duran ahead of Jackson Churio. I assume ADP does not, right? That is correct. And I think the inverse of this conversation is it's harder to find true sluggers, power hitters that don't kill your batting average. And Yoron Alvarez is one of those, right?

I mean, he can hit 300 with 35 plus home runs. The way I've put it is when you actually draft, I find every point in a Roto draft that I've done, and I've done two so far, so or three so far. So it's not a huge sample size. But I have found every draft I've done at every point in the draft, it is easier to find stolen bases than it is power and run production. Agree.

I've noticed the same thing. Way, way easy. There are so many times when the top five guys on my list are guys who could steal 25 or 30 bases. That's never been the case in my time doing this. But we have to adjust to that. and I just, I think the four category superstars make for an easier draft. Yeah. If you don't want A. E. E. E. E. Hennio Suarez or Max Muncie in the middle rounds of your draft,

then you might want to grab a Yordon Alvarez or a Vlad Guerrero Jr. early on someone like that. Let's move on to Mason Miller, who was one of the best relief pitchers in baseball last season. He had 28 saves, a 249 ERA, a 0.88 whip. Over 14K per 9. He averaged 101 miles per hour on the fastball. And it looks like the athletics should be better. Whether or not they actually want to be better or they're trying to be better, I think they have to spend money because of this. They're being forced to be better.

So-called grievance that was going to come up. But they brought in Luis Severino. They traded for Jeffrey Springs. We're getting hopefully a full season from Lawrence Butler. So I think they should be better on paper. Chris, the breakout repeatometer on Mason Miller. I think it's exactly the same as Paul Skeen's. only concern I have is whether he stays healthy. And it's, it's a big concern, right? This guy has,

last year is the only time in Mason Miller's career where he has stayed healthy. But I, I think he is to relievers what Paul Skeins is to starters. I think he is like in terms of talent and ability right now, I think he's just about the one one. And so there are concerns that He doesn't play on a 90-win team or even an 80-win team, maybe not even a 75-win team. I get that. As long as he's upright and healthy, I think Mason Miller's as good as anyone.

So I will say a 9. Scott, I know you had some concerns earlier in the off-season that the A's were just going to be this awful team. And they still are probably going to be bad. But they've gotten better since we've had those conversations. I think it looks like a 75-win team. They won 69 last year. I would say 70.

say 70s probably a fair projection. Scott? I think there's a good chance, Mason Miller will be who he was last year, but he was a guy who got 28 saves last year, even though he was the closer from opening day on. He did have an I.L stent, but it was like a minimal stay for a fractured left finger. He threw a normal number of innings for a closer. He only got 28 saves. So it's, relief pitcher is weird in many ways, but one of the ways that it's weird, is that it's less about how good the pitcher is,

how good the player is, than what kind of opportunities he gets. And I think as, you know, the eighth reliever off the board, the eighth closer off the board, fine. If Mason Miller gets between 25 and 30 saves, I can live with that. But he's going, what is he like,

the fifth? Five. Fifth reliever off the board? RP5. he's going ahead of Ryan Helsley right now. And Ryan Helsley nearly doubled him in saves last year. It doesn't mean it's going to happen again. Saves are difficult to predict from year to year.

But I think if you're trying to predict saves from year to year, one of the best metrics for that is how good is the team he's playing on. Are we sure the Cardinals are a better team than the athletics right now? We're not sure. I'm not sure. I'm kind of, I think I'd take the athletes. I'm not going to go that far because their pitching staff is bad and they're going to play in a park where they give up a lot of the Cardinals pitching staff is pretty bad right now. But I will also point out.

Staff is not playoff caliber, but it has a lot of proven mid-tier guys in it. I will point out Mason Miller saved 21 fewer games than Ryan Halsey last year on a team that won 14 fewer games. Ryan Hellsley just had an insane... He had a very high percentage of saves versus his team's wins, which I understand what you're saying. You know, there is a degree of like team... What's the word I'm looking for?

Team construction, how it impacts. Like, if you're a team that plays low-scoring games, you're going to get more safe chances. Now, can we predict that with great precision here in early January or even in March how that's going to play out? Probably not, but

I don't know. I just worry about the save total for Mason Miller. Particularly with the durability concerns on top of it. The A's were involved in a weird number of blowouts last year. Remember that stretch where they had like three 15 run wins? Didn't Lawrence Butler have... In the span of like 15 games or something?

Didn't he have two three? Homer games. All right. So they won on July 6, 19 to 8. Then July 14th, 18 to 3. Yeah. Beat the Orioles and Phillies. And then they won 13 to 3 on July 19th.

So in a span of two weeks, they had three 10 run wins. That, yeah, that's unlikely, I would say. They're playing in a launching pad next year. Yeah. Yeah. And they're going to have terrible pitching. I don't think any of us doubt the talent of Mason Miller. Again, it's just the price tag.

I mean, fifth closer off the board. I think it's fine. Around pick 51, it's, it is a big price tag. It sounds like Chris is willing to do it. Scott, not so much. Me, I don't think I'll be the one to draft Mason Miller either, but I love the arm. I pretty much never draft the fifth closer anyway. Yeah, I think that's also reasonable.

Not because I'm opposed to the number five, but you know, I'm looking at that 10, 11, 12 range for my first closer. Fair enough. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll quickly run through some news and notes, and then back into the breakout repeats. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in News and Notes, the National signed Ahmed Rosario to a one-year, $2 million deal. It feels like Rosario has been around forever. He's still only 29 years old, which is kind of crazy to think about. Last season, he hit 280, three home runs, 13 steals, and 103 games. And according to an article on MLB.com, they said Rosario could either start at third base or just be a super utility player for the Nationals. The hope here is that he is not a

short side platoon player for Luis Garcia. Please just do not do that, Nationals. Of all the things possible, do not do that. What do you guys think? Yeah, hopefully not. They don't really have a great option at third base. Jose Tena. They have Brady House coming, but yeah. Right. Brady House is coming off a bad year. He's kind of had an on and again, off again situation as a prospect. So I, I don't know that it'll ever amount to anything, frankly, but I certainly don't think they're ready to turn that job over to him right now. So, yeah, they have options there. None of them particularly enticing.

I would be surprised if Ahmed Rosario a couple years after, since we've seen him be a full-time player, if this is what allows him to be a full-time player again, I just think he's basically a non-entity in fantasy at this point. Yeah. And the contract to one year, $2 million, that's not really a contract that he has to play every day or he has to be a starter.

So for now, I just think it's NL-only leagues for Alamed Rosario, maybe a depth piece in some of those deeper draft and hold leagues. The White Sox signed Martin Perez to a one-year $3.5 million deal. He's turning 34 in April. And he had that outlier 2022 where he was great. But outside of that, he routinely posts ERAs in the mid-4s. He did perform better when he got traded. of the Padres last season,

but a lot of that seems like smoke and mirrors. Chris don't really think there's much here with Martine Perez, right? Let's move on. Yeah, the updated White Sox rotation, by the way, Martin Perez, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Bryce Wilson, Drew Thorpe.

Stream your hitters. Stream your hitters against the White Sox is what I'm saying, so. I was about to say it might be better than the A's rotation, though. No. A's have legitimate major league talent. God is such an A's hater.

My gosh. I don't like. Martin Perez, whatever. He, like, he's the fifth starter of fifth starters. But like, would any of these guys start on any other team in baseball? Like, I guess Drew Thorpe, because he's young, but he was a disaster last year. Maybe. I've seen some.

I forgot the A's also acquired Jeffrey Springs. So that that does make. Come on. In addition to Severino. Come on. J.P. Sears is better. than any of these white socks clowns.

I think both Severino and Springs' best years are behind them. Clearly, that's the case for Severino. But, you know, if they stay healthy, I guess. I guess they're better than anybody the white socks out. Joey Estes would be the number three in Chicago. Maybe the number one, who knows? Griffin Jacks will remain in the Twins bullpen rather than moving into the rotation.

We did hear some whispers earlier on that might be something that they were considering, For now, it seems like he will remain in the bullpen where he'll likely provide strong ratios, strikeouts, and holds as a setup man to Yohan Duran. If Duran struggles, obviously Griffin Jax could make a move there, but I think for now, only a name in saves plus holds leagues is Griffin Jax. The Twins current rotation, by the way,

Pavel Lopez, Bailey Oberg, Joe Ryan, and then some combo of Simeon Woods Richardson, Chris Paddock, David Festa, Zebby Matthews. So they have depth, they have interesting young depth, not much that's proven, but I think it's a pretty good rotation already, so. Yeah, I mean, one, two, three, if they stay healthy, that's, that's a rotation you wouldn't mind having

in the postseason, Lopez, Ober Ryan. They're all in that 15 to 50 range for me in the starting pitcher rankings, which means I think they're good. All right, Chris, I'm sorry to say, but Braxton Garrett will miss all of 2025 after undergoing internal brace surgery back in December, the Marlins updated rotation,

Sandy Alcantara, Ryan Weathers, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer, and then one of Adam Mazur. I'm still upset that it's not Adam Mazur. Like, come on, man.

Like, he should probably just change that. And then Valenti Bayozo. So, yeah. Chris. The Ozo show. It's not great.

Yeah. And there was a... Yuri Perez will be back by July. probably and by that point Robbie Snelling could be around and yeah there's I don't know it might not be terrible

but it's probably not going to be very good there was a report from Craig Mish as well that said the Marlins will not trade Sandy Alcantara before opening day so if anyone thought that was they came too they told him that last like September I think you know Ryan Weathers

spring training hasn't even opened and Ryan Weathers has already in the best shape of his life. Best loss of his life. I like Ryan Weathers, man. He was good last season. He did. He had that stretch right before he got hurt where it was like, oh, yeah.

This is actually happening. Let me see if I could pull it up. He closed out the season pretty strong too, if I remember correctly. Oh, he did come back in September. He thought about that. He might be on my sleepers list. He might be pretty good. I kind of like Ryan Weathers.

His final eight starts. Ryan Weathers had a 280 E. ERA. He had more than a strikeout per inning. He walked eight in those eight starts to give him a 104 whip. Yeah, he finished strong. All right. Liam Hendricks said Wednesday that he's been throwing bullpen sessions for a month and a half and is having a pretty normal offseason. He was limited to just six rehab appearances last year after making it back from Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox bullpen right now looks like Hendricks, our oldest Chapman, Justin Slayton.

Those are the top three options for saves. Chris, if you had to predict on January 10th, who do you think will lead the Red Sox and saves? Chapman. Okay. I'm surprised Hendrix is going inside the top 380p. His velocity was down like two miles per hour and his rehab stint last year.

He's going 50 picks ahead of Chapman right now. Yeah, I'd rather have Chapman. Just wait until I get my rankings out there and they begin to exert their influence. Scott's moving markets. Get ready. The Blue Jays have had contract talks with Kenley Jansen. That would be a pretty solid landing spot for him.

The Twins acquired cashier prospect Diego Cartaya from the Dodgers in exchange for pitching prospect Jose Vasquez. Cartier was once regarded as one of the top catcher prospects in all of baseball. He's still only 23 years old, but has struggled mightily over the past two seasons. Scott, any interest in a by-low in dynasty, Diego Cartia? Realistically, no. He's 23, so there's always a chance, but he's a catcher, and there are more than enough catcher prospects to go around to Dynasty Leagues without him. We do have a bunch of players reaching deals ahead of arbitration,

but I'm not going to bore you with, I mean, there's so many names, there's so much going on. But, yeah, I saw, I think William. It doesn't really matter, yeah. William Contraris is one that is going to arbitration. There's a few other big names as well. And the biggest news of all, Tyler Nevin, the son of Phil Nevin.

He's agreed to a contract in Japan, so good luck, my friend. So we don't have to hear that little fact. If you know, you know. Will these breakouts repeat? Let's get back into it. Cole Regens. Oh, do I have it? I don't know if I do.

Yes, I do. Finish as a top 15 starting pitcher in both Roto and head-to-head points last season. We know Scott loved Cole Riggins. Nick Pollock loved Cole Riggins, and he came through in a big way. 314 ERA, a 11-WIP. Throws mid-90s from the left-hand side.

he's got a wipeout change up. He's got good breaking pitches as well. Did see a pretty big innings jump year over year. Scott, the breakout rapitometer on your boy, Cole Regens. I'm going to go nine and a half. And there's a reason I stop short of 10. I'll get into in just a minute. But I do, I will say Cole Regens is the seventh of what seems to me a very clear top

seven at starting pitcher. ADP doesn't agree. But to me, there's a very clear top seven in Reagan. rounds it out. So I feel very safe, very comfortable drafting him as an ace. I will read to you from an article that I just republished everything you missed after football started from unlikely risers to prospect callups. That's the name of the article. It's about 6,000 words long. It's comprehensive. A lot of good stuff in there. I encourage you to read it. Here's what I wrote about Cole Reagan's. Maybe I'm nitpicking, seeing as the guy broke out as completely as I could have hoped for,

but Cole Reagan saw a notable dip in velocity in late June, roughly the halfway point, that continued for the rest of the season. His numbers in those 15 starts, a 326 ERA, 1-13 whip, 10.5K per 9, were nothing to sneeze at. So again, it could mean nothing, but losing velocity is rarely a good sign, particularly when a velocity boost in 2023 is what put Reagan's on the map in the the first place. So it was a weird thing that happened. It didn't affect his performance, but that's in the back of my mind ever so slightly. And that's why I say 9.5. And he does have a history of arm injuries. I believe Nick Pollan called it 1.5 Tommy John's surgery. It was like a, there was like something went wrong with one of his Tommy Johns and they had to

redo it, right? I, yeah, there's something, yeah, some kind of reconstruction. It wasn't a full Tommy John. It was some kind of, they had to clean something up in there. But nonetheless, he does have an injury history like most pitchers do at this point. But if you just look at him from a pure skills perspective, Cole Reagan's was a beast last season, as was Michael King, who finished as a top 20 starting pitcher in fantasy. First full year as a starter was a huge success. 295, ERA 119, 10.4K per 9, 12% swinging strike rate. The walks a little bit higher than you'd like over three walks per nine, but obviously has awesome stuff.

We saw him display that in the postseason. Just a crazy start that he had there. Chris, what do you think here? The breakout repeatometer on Michael King. I feel like we got to do a number below five at some point, but it's not going to be for me on Michael King. I've got him as SP 13.

So I'm going to say an eight. And really, I think the pitch ability, that he showed the way he turned his season around after April was incredibly impressive. Like, I was done after April. I thought Michael King was just dropable in every league. It was one of my biggest misses of the year. And I think that speaks volumes to the talent.

It speaks volumes to the pitchability, which I think is a slightly different thing than talent. It's just like this is a guy who fractured his elbow while pitching. So I, there's fairly big injury risk here, despite the fact that he made it through all of last season. But I don't really doubt the talent. The ADP over the past month is 66.3 as the SP 15. I believe both of you either have him right around there in your pitcher rankings or slightly above. Let's just see you waited until round six. Would you be okay with Michael King as your SP one?

You started five hitters in a row? Yeah. I'd be fine with that. He is number 14 for me, which makes him the last prior to the 15 to 50 group that I can't distinguish between, which means I can distinguish between King and those and the good glob. Yeah, no, it's funny. Chris, you mentioned you were done with him last April. And remember, last April, Michael King, he was walking everybody.

Oh, he was terrible. He was terrible. He was terrible. home runs. It was, and I was going through the articles I wrote over the past year, because it's like award nomination season and nominate yourself for writing awards. And I saw one of my early articles, I had the same thing. I had a, it's okay to drop this guy list and King was on it. Like, okay, I guess I'm not submitting that one. Yeah, but, you know, he did turn things around and obviously had that amazing season in Michael King.

I think we'll have some lower numbers coming up. Let's see. Brenton Doyle is next up. Top 10 outfielder in Roto, top 20 and head to head points. He was one of 10 players to go 2030, 23 home runs, 30 steals. He's 26 years old, took a huge step forward, lowered the strikeout rate, and he is an elite defender,

so you know he's going to play every day. It's got the breakout repeatometer on Brenton Doyle. Okay. Okay. I can do a lower number for this one. It's still going to be above five. It's going to be a six. It's going to be a six. I almost did the same thing.

All right, six. Tell us why, Scott. Well, he's on my bust list for this upcoming, this first round, Sleepers Breakouts and Bus. Spoiler alert. I feel like you should have him lower than six. Yeah. Well, take a stand, Scott. But it's rare to find a player that I'm so confident will bust that I think it's a better than 50% chance, you know? Fair.

Yeah. Okay. So it's really just so many different ways it could go wrong for him. I feel like it's a tight rope walk for him to get to the numbers he got to last year, given that he's miserable on the road as many Rocky's hitters are. But that means he has to be a total world beater at home, very little margin for error. there. He got his strikeout. His strikeout rate as a rookie, remember, was 35% totally untenable. And by the way, you look at his minor league track record, it was closer to that down there than not. So last year where he got it down to 25.4% huge improvement, also an aberration for

his entire major league career. And, you know, I did some looking around changes he made to maybe to get that strikeout rate down, see how sustainable it was. And yeah, he made some changes to the swing, made an effort to be shorter to the ball. But we've seen players have these big strikeout gains, hitters have these big strikeout gains in one year,

and then totally give it all back the next year. That's not an uncommon thing. And particularly how consistent Doyle's strikeout rate was, how consistently high it was before last. year I it wouldn't be that surprising if it happened to him so if he goes back to striking out like he did as a rookie he's barely batting over 200 yeah he's probably playing a lot but do you really want him in your fantasy lineup that might not be a good thing particularly when the rockies are on the road and by the way on the road I said he was terrible there I think it was a low 600 OPS yeah I mean it was

Like even now, it's, it's, you can't even be totally sure you want him starting when he's on the road. You might those, those weeks where the Rockies are entirely on the road, would you really want to start Doyle? So any one thing goes wrong for him, I feel like he doesn't live up to the ATP. Fair enough, Chris. I'll say four, but the one thing I will say is one thing I like about this year's outfield crop compared to last year is Nolan Jones was nearly a top 50 pick in ADP last year. and he was the number 16 outfielder with almost the identical profile, right? Like no track record outside of his success the previous year, huge plate discipline concerns, bad home road splits, all that stuff.

Well, Brent and Dole's gone about 20 picks later, 25 picks later right now. And, you know, he's only outfielder 20. So that's one of the things that I'm happy that the outfield position is a little deeper. So we don't have to, yeah, you know, I understand your point. I do feel like there were a lot, there was a lot more in Jones favor than Doyle's. Hits the ball harder. The quality of contact was much better,

but didn't have the, it was a speed versus power thing. Nolian Jones is a really, really good base runner. Greater prospect pedigree, walked a lot more than Doyle does. But I get your overall point that we're not having to stretch

for the Nolan Jones type as much this year. We're just doing it for Lawrence Butler. Yeah, well, we're not. We're not even drafting Butler as high this year as we were Jones last year. But yeah, I think that's, I think that's the closer comp anyway.

All right, we've got 10 minutes left and four players to get two, so let's do it. Mark Viantos took a huge step forward. He showed elite power, 27 home runs, a 249 ISO. And then in the postseason, five more homers, a 327 batting average. He did all of that in 13.

games. He had elite quality of contact. But we do have some questions here about the plate discipline. Chris, the breakout repeatometer on Mark Vientos. Four. Ooh. Yes. I like it. I'm not going to go that high, but I like it. The, the plate discipline got much better and it needed to because it was untenable. But the, well, the zone contact rate up to 75%.

Which is still really bad. Oh, yeah. Still bad, but much better. Okay. The chase rate went way down. Again, still bad, but way better than it was before. So it's one of those things. He feels like Austin Riley coming off of his breakout season, where I had a lot of

doubts. I didn't really buy into it. And obviously, Austin Riley has made it work. But Vientos really feels like he's. dancing on a knife's edge here where any regression in his already very bad quality or contact rates, I think the whole profile could fall apart very, very quickly. Like he is a viable major league hitter, potentially an above average one, although I think even then he overperformed last year.

But I don't think he can be a great hitter with his current plate discipline. He needs to either improve his plate discipline or. or just be pretty good. And I think he's probably closer to pretty good than great. So Viantos is the other one from my bust list here. Again, spoiler alert. So I'm going to go five on him even lower than I had Doyle, but a little higher than Chris Adam.

And when you're talking about the plate discipline getting better, I was thinking specifically strikeout rate. He had a 22% rate through June 30th, which is kind of what got him in the Mets lineup. but from that point forward, basically the second half of the season and the majority of it bats, he gave it all back. He had a 33% strikeout rate. It's hard to hit even 220 when you're striking out that much

unless you have transcendent O'Neill Cruz, L.E. Dela Cruz type of power. Mark Viantos, quality of contact is good. It's not quite as good as them. It didn't really ruin his performance, but he also had a 330 BAPB. 333 BAPIP with a 256 batting average during that time where he was striking out 33% at the time. A very high bat,

but for a guy who swing isn't line drive oriented. And I just wonder if he's going to be a glorified version of Patrick Wisdom or like Eugenio Suarez during those years where Eugenio Hesuarez wasn't very good because that's what the strikeout rate raw power combination adds up to usually And given that the Mets still have Brett Beatty, they still have Ronnie Maricio that they could fall back on.

Yeah, I could see things going wrong for Viantos. And for a guy who's as geared towards power as Vyentos is, his swing is not at all optimized for like pull side power, which is not necessarily a bad thing if you hit it hard enough. But it does, I think it's another way in which the margin for error here is fairly slim. I hear you, Chris, but a 14% barrel rate. Yeah, it's pretty elite. So despite him not pulling the ball, he still does. When he gets it in the air, he hits it a long way. If he's as good as he was last year, he might lead the NL and RBI.

Right? Like hitting behind Francisco and Doran Wonsoto, like that, again, it's not hard to see an Austin Riley-ask outcome here. It's just I wish I was brave enough to rank him lower than I do. I have him number eight at third base, 95th overall. I can't really justify putting Junior Caminara ahead of him when Mark Vientos already had that season, but I don't really want to draft Mark Vientos. Well, he is going one spot ahead of Jordan Westberg, who is next up on the list. Another one who's kind of just entering his prime. He'll be 266 years old on opening day.

He hit 264 with 18 home runs, six deals, and a 792 OPS. He did miss some time with a fractured hand, but he hits the ball hard. Jordan Westberg does. the expected stats were great. He has prospect pedigree. And if you look at Camden Yards, they're pulling in that left field wall, so hopefully that could help Jordan Westberg

with the power. You can tell, by the way, I'm framing this. I like Jordan Westberg a lot this season. So maybe it's not fair, but yeah, that's kind of just how I'm framing it. Scott, what do you think about the breakout repeatometer on Jordan Westberg? I'm going to go 10 here.

And I'm kind of grading on a curve because I feel like he's going so much later than he should be. I kind of feel that away about every second baseman, but Jordan Westberg is near the top of that list. I had him like 65 in my initial rankings, and he's going. 93? Yeah, barely inside the top 100.

And I don't really understand it, given the scarcity at second base, given how if you project out his numbers, you know, he ends last year with close to 30 homers and like double-digit steals. a great lineup. You look at his stack cast page, high quality of contact, and the coup de grace is, as you said, Frank, they're moving in the left field fence.

He's a right-handed power hitter who had to deal with that left field fence in Camden Yards last year. That could be a total game changer, not that I think he needed a game changer. So I'm very optimistic about Westberg next year. I'll also point out one thing you guys didn't mention, which is he's still 15 bases. is in 161 games at AAA, which is not like a huge number. It's better than what he did last year. 91% on sprint speed. And this is something we saw with Gunner Henderson.

He's fascinating. From year one to year two, where we, this time last off season, we were like, well, Jordan Westport or Gunner Henderson, one way he can get even better is just putting his natural athleticism into play more. And that's what he did last year. So I think there is room for Jordan Westberg to be a more prolific base stealer and potentially, you know, push 30 homers 15 steals yeah i do think it's worth pointing out with baltimore moving the fences in

they're not moving them in as much as they were back when camden yards was one of the best uh parks and baseball for hitters they're turning the dial uh and trying to get the right uh the right balance between hitting and pitching and but even if it's a happy medium chris even if it's halfway between where it was back in the day and where it was last season yeah that's I think they're moving it in like 18 feet across most of left field and lowering the fences, right? It was like they moved it back 30. 30s. But it's, I was underwhelmed at first when I saw the stats of how much they're moving it in, but then I kind of got, I saw the, the, the diagrams.

And it's just such a long stretch of the fence that's being moved in that, okay, maybe it's still deep in this part of left field, but it's kind of shallow in this part of left field. And I, I think it's going to, I think it's going to play pretty fairly. Gosh. Well, I enjoy the enthusiasm for Jordan Westbury. It looks like all three of us are going to be fighting for him in drafts this year. All right, we have two pitchers left. I'll give one of them to each of you. And Chris, you're up first.

Hunter Brown. Looks like his season was just headed down the toilet last year. First, eight starts, 771, ERA, 193 whip. And then a light bulb went off. Final 22 starts, 231, ERA 109 whip. He is currently being drafted as the 33rd starting pitcher off the board. Around pick 110, what do you think the breakout repeatometer is on Hunter Brown? Let me see where I ended up with Brown in my rankings,

because I can't say I'm like overly excited about the prospect of drafting him, but I have him higher than his ADP, so I guess I have to go with, uh, yeah, he's SP 28 and 94th overall. So I guess I'll say a six. I like him. I just, I can't shake, and maybe this is unfair. I have a like a Mitch Keller vibe from the way he turned his season around and the like,

he throws a lot of pitches. I'm not sure any of them are great pitches. Like, I, again, I like, but don't love Hunter Brown. I wish he had like one amazing swing and miss. pitch, which I feel like is where the Mitch Keller vibes come from as well. But I, I mostly believe in what he did and what the Astros can do. So I'm, I'm okay with him. I'm okay with the price. I don't necessarily think he's a superstar, but I think he's a rock solid SP3. And Scott, we will wrap up with your Atlanta Braves. Renaldo Lopez, the Braves signed him last offseason.

They transitioned him from a reliever to a starter. And he, took off a 199 ERA, a 111-11 whip over a strikeout per inning. At times we thought, all right, he's pitching over his head and he dealt with multiple arm injuries. And then once he came back, he was even better. I don't know how he did it. But what are your thoughts here? The breakout repeatometer on Renaldo Lopez. Well, if you're asking me, will he repeat a 199 ERA. I'm going to put them at zero on the on the repeatometer. Good.

We finally got a low number from scale. If you're asking me, just more generally is the breakout for real. Could he pitch to his expected stats like a 2902 fit by believe it was? And the other ER estimators were a little above three. Let's say could he pitch to a low three ERA? Yeah. I like his I like his chances of doing that. I'd still probably go like 6, 6.5, but I think there's a, I think he's legitimately a fantasy asset.

And that return from those injuries in the second half kind of clinched that for me. Because remember, prior to that, he was succeeding with pretty middling strikeout rates and just seemed like such an obvious regression candidate. it, but in those August and September starts that he made in between the injuries, he had a 16% swinging strike rate, which is beyond elite. He had 13.3K per 9. He suddenly started missing bats like crazy. And I think he's, I think he already, prior to that, showed an act for avoiding the barrel of the bat.

So, yeah, I think he's good. I have him around 50th, and I think I'll be drafting a lot of them. The ADP over the last month is 160 as the SP 45. Does that sound kosher for Ronaldo Lopez? Oh, I'm surprised he's SP 45, because it seems like when the drafts I've done, when we arrive at the point where he's in, he's out in my rankings, he's pretty much always there. And I have him a little lower than 45.

So I don't know. Yeah, that's more or less right, though. All right, we're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again next week. Bye-bye.

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