Fantasy Baseball Today - Cardinals Signings & Top Shortstop Prospects! (11/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 22, 2023

The Cardinals are signing Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson (5:15)! ... The Braves signed Reynaldo Lopez who will be stretched out as a starter (12:45). ... Let's jump into the top shortstop prospects, start...ing with Jackson Holliday and Jordan Lawlar (21:57). ... Jackson Merrill has a great hit tool while Sebastian Walcott has turned some heads (32:40). ... Colson Montgomery has huge power upside (40:10). ... Luisangel Acuña and Jett Williams offer some of the most speed in the minors (43:25). ... Thomas Saggese looks like a great well-rounded prospect but where does he fit in with the Cardinals (47:00)? ... We wrap up with dynasty trade targets and players we're thankful for (51:12)! Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Happy Thanksgiving Eve, and welcome in Tough Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday. November 22nd.
Starting point is 00:00:32 I am Frank Sample, joined by Chris the Welsh. No Scotty today. Off for the rest of the week. time with family for the holidays, much deserved. Of course, today on the show, we are talking about the top 10 shortstop prospects. We broke down third base last week. We were kind of excited, yeah, this is the most talent at any position yet. Shortstop?
Starting point is 00:00:52 Probably a little bit better. So I'm excited to talk about those. We've got some dynasty trade targets at the position. We did have a few smaller signings as well that we'll also talk about. But Welsh, happy Thanksgiving Eve. We're almost there. What's the over under on white Russians this year? Oh, you know, I'm on the fence a little bit.
Starting point is 00:01:11 Like, we're going to go, no, but we're going to go one way or the other. We're going to, we can't not do it. So I think the number, I think it's going to be a low number. I think we're going to set it at one and a half because I'm either going to, like, dip my toe or we'll go full on Lubowski. And I, and I don't know, this moment, I can't tell you, but we're going to set it at a low bar. What about you, I would say? What is our over under on any white rush? I started you last year, but will you continue?
Starting point is 00:01:40 I will have some for sure. Thanksgiving is kind of interesting for me because I spend it at two different locations. It's dinner with the in-laws and then go to my parents' house for dessert and like, do I really want to be lugging around all the different bottles and ingredients for white Russians to every place that I go? You might. Not so sure. I definitely will indulge in a few at least. I just don't know if it'll be at both locations.
Starting point is 00:02:03 But yeah, definitely going to do that. You put me on it last year. on it last year, the Welsh's Thanksgiving tradition, drinking white Russians. And it was fun. They're really good. And I enjoyed it. What do you got going on? Anything fun for Thanksgiving? Just all good old normal Thanksgiving stuff. I think we're going to take the kid out early morning. And a lot of people like to do football. We might do a little bit of baseball. We might do some hitting hanging out at a field near our house. And then we will just be lazy and attempt to have one day where I don't stare at prospects or baseball stats or just anything. That's a, I'm like,
Starting point is 00:02:36 writing and I'm prepping and I'm doing prospects and redraft and I'm in my I'm in my head with all of it and I will attempt to have one day with not and that's where the white Russians come in. It's kind of the medicine to help me not work. Not that we're the hardest work, but it takes a lot. There's a lot of things to analyze and I need to take one day off of it. So that's what we'll do. And you know what I've never had for Thanksgiving? Not to belabor this. I vote for. I saw you did the like the draft of like, here's your Thanksgiving draft for 20 bucks and whatever on Twitter. And I always look at this and I go, why don't we do this for Thanksgiving? I want it.
Starting point is 00:03:13 Is macaroni and cheese? Oh. We never had, I've had in my life. Macaroni and cheese with Thanksgiving. I'm a little bit of a connoisseur where it comes to mac and cheese. And we don't do it. I'm putting my foot down. Putting my foot down as head of the Welsh household that we're getting mac and cheese.
Starting point is 00:03:31 That is one thing I am going. going to make sure happens on Thanksgiving. Frank, have you not indulged in something that you have to on Thanksgiving one time? No, I mean, I pretty much get everything that I need and want. Mac and cheese is a big one. My wife makes mac and cheese every year for Thanksgiving. We're up in the morning. We're watching the parade.
Starting point is 00:03:53 We're shredding cheese at the table. So it's kind of become a yearly tradition of ours as well. The shredding of the cheese, you will. But yeah, mac and cheese is there. I'll eat some ham, some turkey, a couple of different kinds of potatoes, whatever it might be. I don't really mess with like the cranberry sauce. Leave that for the green casserole? No, no, little veggies?
Starting point is 00:04:12 No, no, I don't know. Vegetables, come on, man. The only way you can make Thanksgiving better is if we got chicken fingers at Thanksgiving. That's the only way. Last thing, pie of choice. And what's the most hated pie? Favorite pie? Hated pie.
Starting point is 00:04:26 You got to go pumpkin, right? I mean, I'm not going to eat pumpkin pie on Christmas, right? It feels right, eating pumpkin pie on Thanksgiving. And I like pumpkin pie. We got the biggest. We got the biggest Costco pumpkin pies are ridiculous. We got those. I say pumpkin pie is kind of mid.
Starting point is 00:04:41 Ooh. Apple pie is great. Of traditional, though I would say I would go untraditional. This will be a not like take of mine. Peacom pie can go in the garbage. I don't know that I've ever had pecan pie. Pican, pecan. What is the preferred verbiage?
Starting point is 00:05:00 Chanel. I love a chocolate cream pie, but that's like not really pie anyway, so whatever. Anyway, happy Thanksgiving to all. Hope you enjoy it, as much food as you could possibly eat. Let's talk about some of these smaller signings that we had. The Cardinals entered this offseason. They said they wanted not one, not two, but three starting pitchers. And so far, they have signed two.
Starting point is 00:05:20 The first one, we have Lance Lynn. He signed a one-year, $10 million deal to return to the St. Louis Cardinals. If you remember, spent the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis, he posted a 338 ERA and a 129 whip. I think the most important part is that he provided 175 plus innings in five of six seasons with the Cardinals. And that might be the most valuable asset when it comes to Lance Lynn at this point, because he just threw 183 and two-thirds innings. He was one of 25 starting pitchers to throw 180 plus this past season.
Starting point is 00:05:55 Now, we know the deal, Welsh. Not all of those endings were very good or useful for fantasy. In fact, most of them weren't, probably one of my biggest blunders of the season this past year. But it's a great ballpark to pitch in. There's familiarity there. Should have a good solid defense behind them. Good offensive run support as well. Any thoughts?
Starting point is 00:06:14 Any excitement, I guess. Jumping back in on Lance Lynn to St. Louis. I don't know. I mean, these signings were the pecan and rhubarb pies of rotation pieces they could have got. I'm not really sure what the outside of depth, I don't really see it. That's fine. You know, there's a history there with Lance Lynn. Maybe we can revive the strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:06:35 We saw like kind of slight velo dips. The slider took a backtrack. I wonder if that's going to, if they're going to be working on that in a different direction. Swinging strike percentage fell under 13%. Still higher than it was two years ago. But, you know, he's kind of been this stabilized inning eating pitcher that has not been not been fantastic.
Starting point is 00:06:56 But I do want to acknowledge depth. And as a lot of people had said early on, Cardinals fans, hey, if you got Lynn is your four or five, great, that looks solid. The problem is he's currently like, you're two, and Miles Michaelis is your one. And that's what you don't like. And that's what you have to fix. So I do believe there's still one more bullet in the chamber, if you will, for what they're going to do with their rotation.
Starting point is 00:07:20 But let's say it's the better guy. You know, I've talked to you off air and I think on air, like I think Yamamoto's in play here. let's say it was even like Jordan Montgomery. Okay, Miles Michaelis, two, Lance Lynn, three. That doesn't feel great. It feels very unlike what the Cardinals are going to do. And I just don't know if I look at the Cardinals as the organization that's going to come in and fix all of these pitchers or, you know,
Starting point is 00:07:46 it was worth the big, big gamble. I would have liked Lance Lynn to be a pairing with another high-end pitcher because the Cardinals absolutely can turn everything around this coming year and be a force. I just don't know if it's going to be with guys like, you know, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Yeah, and Kyle Gibson was the other signing. We'll get to that in just a second here.
Starting point is 00:08:06 The one thing with Lance Lynn still got a ton of swinging strikes. 12.9% swinging strike rate. That was tied for ninth among all qualified starting pitchers last season. So if nothing else, I still do think there's some strikeout upside. Obviously, the control, the walks, the home runs were a disaster for Lance Lynn. He's getting up there in age. He turns 37 years old. in May. I think this is probably mostly for deeper leagues and
Starting point is 00:08:29 ennings eater type and you hope that maybe he can get back to like a high threes, maybe low force ERA there with Lance Lynn. The early ADP is 357.3. He's going just ahead of names like Tyler Wells, John Gray, and Louis Varland. Does that sound right? There's a lot of these guys that fall into this territory where it's like if this and this thing went here, could we get one of the biggest values possible? I just think the upside is kind of gone. What do you have? You've got 180 innings. You've got good strikeouts, but you've got absolutely abysmal ERA. He had a 5-7 ERA last year with an expected 4-8-6. How much is
Starting point is 00:09:11 that going to improve in St. Louis? Steamer projections, I don't think of updated on it. They did have them at a 4-33. And when we see some other projections come out there that are factoring a lot more ballpark factors, maybe it'll be a tad bit lower. an even for ERA Lance Lynn could be a lot more serviceable in fantasy. I think it's somebody that, you know, if you are trying to build up some of those innings and there's a better opportunity for wins with this Cardinals team, I think, this year, he might be a nice cheap source, but like going from 350 to being like a top 150, I just don't think it's going to live in that area.
Starting point is 00:09:48 I think he'll just be a solid end out your rotation guy and hope that he fixes some of it, but he might be nothing more than a streamer. All right, let's slide over to Kyle Gibson. The Cardinals also signed Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $12 million deal with a club option for 2025. And Gibson, a lot like Lance Lynn, really just an innings eater type this past season of 473 ERA, 132 whip. But he did provide 192 innings. He's thrown 180 plus in two of his past three years. I was watching an interview with Derek Gould, who does a great job covering the Cardinals,
Starting point is 00:10:21 and basically said that the Cardinals went into this offseason. They wanted three pitchers. They wanted two of those to be innings-eaters. They needed more innings out of their starters. So that seems to be by design. I agree. I think they still need to make another big splash, whether it's a Yamamoto,
Starting point is 00:10:37 they're still linked to sunny gray. I think one of those guys at the top, it looks better. I still don't know that that's a great rotation, but it seems like this is by design. They wanted some endings-eaters types. Even less than Lance Lynn, well, I can't really muster up much enthusiasm for Kyle Gibson.
Starting point is 00:10:53 No, not at a lot. I also wonder what this says maybe overall about their bullpen and the future of their bullpen. You know, we've seen the cost, the cost of bullpen pieces is going through the roof, I think. And whether it is contractually or in trade conversation. So if you're wanting like really, really good bullpen pieces, we know it's going to cost. Gallegos and Helsley definitely work. Maybe there's some questions a little bit in the middle. I just wonder if these guys being able to eat as many innings,
Starting point is 00:11:23 possible is kind of a testament to what their rotation looks like or maybe facilitating one or two pitchers in that starting rotation that if you have guys that can go seven and eight you won't tax a bullpen so if you need some support on lower inning guys whether they are going to put zack thompson out maybe it's a stephen matt's thing or maybe it is bringing a guy like yamamoto over where they might not be comfortable throwing and we know there's like an adjustment period that's going to happen and a really great breakdown by the way from lance braw's on Yamamoto. A lot of things I agree on that maybe the fastball isn't quite as good as everybody is hoping
Starting point is 00:12:01 it's going to be. And the arm side run on the splitter maybe doesn't make it as devastating as Senga. All of these things are to say, like, if the adjustment period is like a little bit more difficult, then you're going to want to have a bullpen that can protect. And you can't do it if you have a bunch of guys that are going to go five. So maybe this is a little bit of a distrust in the bullpen. And maybe just maybe these signings are also a testament to the. the player that they're going to go acquire, which could be a Yamamoto, or maybe there's another pitch.
Starting point is 00:12:29 Maybe there's just a younger pitcher we're not thinking of. Glass now is out in the trade market as well. Protection for injuries and stuff. But yeah, there's nothing. I pull out of Gibson will be nothing for me in fantasy, probably not even a streaming option unless he proves otherwise. The Braves made another signing. They signed Ronaldo Lopez to a three-year $30 million deal, which includes an $8 million club option for 2020. Rinaldo Lopez.
Starting point is 00:12:55 While he wound up on three different teams last year, he actually had a pretty successful season. A 327 ERA, a 127 whip, 11.3K per 9. Warks are a problem. The strikeouts are there. He throws hard. He has this slider that has a 39% whiff rate. Here's the kicker Welsh.
Starting point is 00:13:13 Reports come out about this signing. We're like, okay, whatever, another depth piece. The Braves bullpen is awesome. We get it. Sounds like the Braves will have Lopez prepare this winter as a starter. and then stretch him out in spring training. So very interesting.
Starting point is 00:13:28 We know the Braves have been linked to Aranola before he signed. They're still kind of linked to Sunny Gray. But now we're getting this report of Ronaldo Lopez could work in as a potential starter. Maybe he's a swing man, whatever it might be. And I'll just throw this out there. Ronaldo Lopez, in his career, much better as a reliever than a starter.
Starting point is 00:13:47 515 innings as a starter, 473 ERA, 164 as a reliever, 301 ERA. So much more effective in that role. Your thoughts on this move. Yeah. I mean, I think their rotation is pretty signaling of it, though. Even if they were to bring somebody in,
Starting point is 00:14:04 I think you want as much depth as possible. You've got Strider, you got Freed, who's had injury stuff. Morton is 40 years old. But then you go down to Bryce Elder and who Oscar, you know, is the registered fifth starter, according to roster resource. So I'm not surprised that they play both sides of it with a guy like Ronaldo Lopez who has experience as a starter.
Starting point is 00:14:22 maybe they think there's something that they can fix off of him. But and this is one of the things I throw out as well. Like they do have the predominant two pitch pitcher in baseball that maybe they look at a guy like No. Lopez and they go, well, he is a two pitch pitcher. 94% of his registered pitches are between a fastball and a slider. But maybe they think there's something they can do with that. A 98 mile an hour fastball that's paired with a slider that almost has a 40% whiff rate, maybe that's part of the game. If they want to take a look that creates starting depth. I don't think that's a good idea. And I think he is a full on, a full on bullpen piece. But I'm not going to put anything
Starting point is 00:15:04 past the Braves. I think it's a super interesting signing to watch, very minimal fantasy relevance. Yeah, I think outside of the deeper draft and hold league, some of those 50 round drafts that are going on right now over at the NFBC, you take a late crack at Ronaldo Lopez. Maybe he's just a reliever that you use for ratios. Maybe he turns into a depth starter if they run into some injuries out there in Atlanta. Just to put their depth in perspective in their bullpen, by the way, they have Rice Liglasius, A.J. Minter, now Lopez, who could start, Pierce Johnson, Joe Jimenez. They traded for Aaron Bummer. I mean, the Braves are loaded in their bullpen. They are. And let's come back to this. So you have a couple young, if you have a guy like Lopez,
Starting point is 00:15:46 I didn't even mention A.J. Smith Shaver is out there as well. Is the people. that could be in the rotation. What are we looking at with the Cardinals? If you don't have the bullpen pieces, you want starters that can go really deep into games. You got a couple young starters that they may put out there, or Lopez, who is going to have to continuously be stretched out, what is the protection to having a couple guys
Starting point is 00:16:06 that maybe you can't trust going 200 or going deep? An amazing bullpen. And they created that amazing bullpen, which, again, did small little piecing things together. Maybe that's a good sign for AJ Smith Schafer as well. And maybe you even see a piggyback. situation with guys like Lopez and Shaver. Depth is, depth might be the storyline of the offseason. When we come out of this and we, we see Otani and a couple of cool trades, but the value of depth
Starting point is 00:16:30 can't be overstated enough, I think, in baseball in this kind of new state. All right, outside of the signings, here's some of the other recent news, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has officially been posted and now has 45 days to sign with an MLB team. And obviously there's a ton of interest. Rumors of a 200 plus million dollar contract for Yamamoto. We've heard the Dodgers, the Giants, the Cardinals, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, a bunch of different teams interested and rightfully so. I mean, his numbers are amazing. We're amazing in Japan and he is 25 years old. So lots of like there and he'll be a fun one to discuss once he signs. The Padres have hired a manager. They bring in Mike Schilt on a two year deal and Schilt spent the past two seasons in the Padres player development department.
Starting point is 00:17:18 and Schilt was actually very successful as a manager, his time with the Cardinals. He went 252 and 199. It's a 559 winning percentage. He was named the National League manager of the year back in 2019. I looked a little bit into those Cardinals teams as well just to see an idea for some tendencies, what the closers looked like.
Starting point is 00:17:38 And it was kind of a mixed bag. I think there was like a Bud Norris 25 save season in there somewhere. There was some years where like someone had 29 saves, and the next person had 14. So was that, you know, one person had the job and then they got hurt or they suddenly weren't so great and then they went with another reliever. I think he's mostly going to rely on just one closer or at least that would be my prediction as of now.
Starting point is 00:18:04 Who that will be for the pottery is? I don't know. I was about to say, like, what you laid out though is, yes, it may stick with one closer, but he may not be afraid to dig deep and go really deep on who that player's going to be. Yeah, I mean, I think it's also interesting bringing someone like that in player development because I wonder if you put someone in a leadership role like that that has the complete, it's probably not a big surprise. I don't mean to be mincing thoughts here. But like there are plenty of managers over time that might not have the grand scope of their organization and sometimes get met to these top prospects like right around major league time.
Starting point is 00:18:45 They're like, oh, who's this kid? You know what I'm saying? There's plenty of managers over time that do not have the grand scope, but you get someone that's heavy in the player developmental side, that they might have the macro overview of the organization, which could be, A, in replacement of losing players, who can we get to the majors, or B, who are the players we need to move if we're making big impactful trades? And the Padres went from a kind of depleted system to all of a sudden having a bunch of names
Starting point is 00:19:12 that would be of interest to people in the Marseys and the Paulies and the Martyr-Ros. and the martyrellas who just all played in the AFL, and then you've got a guy centered around like Jackson, Merrill, that putting a guy in leadership role like that, that really understands what the system has and the deficiencies of what is coming and what needs to happen, this might be why this person is here to construct the roster in such a way that it'll either be like they are keeping Soto
Starting point is 00:19:38 or they're really going to kind of dismantle this and also use some of these prospects as assets. Yeah, Marcy was one name, instantly came to mind. He was the AFL MVP. We talked about him a ton. Jackson Merrill will talk about on today's podcast, one of the top shortstop prospects in the game right now. And they have a pitcher who there seems to be quite a bit of enthusiasm for Robbie Snelling. With a rotation that is wide open right now with the San Diego Padres outside of Joe Musgrove, who has his injury concerns, U. Darvish, who has his, I guess, performance concerns up and
Starting point is 00:20:10 down every single year. Outside of that, they really do not have much. I'm looking at the road. This is the projected rotation right now in Raster Resource. Musgrove and Darvish. Matt Waldron, three, Pedro Vila 4 and Jay Grom at 5. That is the projected rotation with guys like Adrian Morione in the bullpen. So you are either bringing up the, uh, the Snellings like you talked about, or you're going to have to make some big fast trades because it's going to be hard to be competitive
Starting point is 00:20:40 in the market as well when you are getting loans for your roster. your payroll. The early prediction on the Padres closer, by the way, Josh Hader is a free agent. Robert Suarez is the name that's at the top of the list. He throws extremely hard. His strikeouts actually came way down this year. So interesting to see whether or not they signed somebody, make a trade, or if not, maybe it's just going to be Robert Suarez as the leader there in the Padres bullpen. Some other hot stove rumors, the Cardinals, as I mentioned, still interested in both Yamamoto and Sunny Gray. The Dodgers have been linked to both Dylan Sees and Corbyn Burns via the trade market and the latter actually included both Burns and
Starting point is 00:21:18 Shortstop William Damas, which could be fun obviously for the Dodgers. The Blue Jays are open to trades on Alec Manoa. Not really sure who's buying right now. Open to trades and quotes. Yeah, why would you just sell low two on the asset? Like, ah, I guess it doesn't make sense. But if something does happen, it could accelerate the timeline for someone like Ricky Tiedeman and the Tigers have shown interest in Seth Lugo.
Starting point is 00:21:41 Let's take our first break. When we return, the Welsh is. top shortstop prospects. We'll break it all down here on fantasy baseball today. Welcome back in. Let's break down the top 10 shortstop prospects entering 2024. This comes via the Welsh's prospect rankings. Number one, no surprise, up at the top, the crown jewel.
Starting point is 00:22:00 The apple of everybody's eye, Jackson Holiday. That's right. Just another top prospect for the Baltimore Orioles. They just keep, I don't know, breeding these prospects lately. Arguably the number one prospect entering 2024. He was the number one overall pick last year. The son of former major leaguer, Matt Holiday, huge season in the minors for Jackson Holiday, 323 batting average, 12 homers, 24 steals, 941 OPS.
Starting point is 00:22:27 He had 100 walks. He did that 101 walks, excuse me, across four different levels. Well, there's a lot to like here. And I really think Jackson Holiday is going to be great regardless of format. I mean, that plate discipline for points leagues, potential power, speed, batting average. He's still so young, turns 20 in December. I am going to ask you the impossible question of what does it look like? What is the overall upside, long term?
Starting point is 00:22:53 What kind of player do you think Jackson Holiday turns into? Yeah, that is definitely the impossible question. I think he did something that was absurd. And it's a absurd because of his talent, but also be just the new structure of baseball. He moved all four professional levels. while not playing rookie ball this year. A, high A, AA, and AAA.
Starting point is 00:23:17 Now, the playing in AAA, I think, had a lot more to do with the structures of like the Arizona Fall League. And typically this would have been a guy that would have gone to the Fall League and AA would have been his last little stop. But he battled every single level. He hit over 300 at every level,
Starting point is 00:23:35 except AAA where he still hit 267. The power numbers might be the question, but he had over 50 extra base hits of his 154 hits this past year while stealing 20 plus. I think it's hard to kind of find the comp. I would tell you, in my mind of minds here,
Starting point is 00:23:55 it feels like Bobby Witt-ish. I think he's going to be aggressive on the base paths. He hits the ball really hard. He's more patient with the potential for better batting average. So imagine Bobby Witt maybe with like a hair taken off of the stolen bases. and better approach, you know, and, you know, who does that become? That's, you know, the shortstop, maybe the shortstop version of, I was about to say Juan Soto, but he steals more bases.
Starting point is 00:24:22 I think in short run, 3030 is not ridiculous to think about him. And there's been a big question about, in a debate about him or White Langford. There is a good sector of the prospect ranking community that White Langford is the unquestion number one with what he did. This is a first year player guy with what he did. I don't think that's wrong. But there's another sector that believe Jackson Holiday is still the guy. And I don't think that's wrong.
Starting point is 00:24:49 I think they are both in kind of tiers of their own while also acknowledging like Camero and Jackson Cheerio exists. I'm still a Jackson Holiday guy. And maybe I'll end up being wrong. I just don't want to take away from the step. Like what White Lankford did this year was incredible and otherworldly. But Jackson Holiday has also been doing that since last season and had a rightful chance to be the shortstop for this team. I would not be shocked with player compensated. The Orioles are literally getting that extra pick.
Starting point is 00:25:19 And they could justify themselves throwing in Jackson Holiday from day one and doing it again. That would be record breaking. And I think he proved that he's ready. The strikeouts weren't a problem. He walks. I didn't look at the steamer 600. That probably would have been interesting. I think it was close to like 2420 on him.
Starting point is 00:25:37 But if you're talking peak, I think this is a 30 plus 30, 30 plus 3.30 plus 3. type of player if that helps in the impossible comp world. But I really do think his approach from a on-based perspective and a contact perspective work really well in his favor. And he is going to thrive and succeed. Your gut call here on November 22nd, do you think Jackson Holiday is up on opening day? I am going to say, yes, gut call. It is more likely no.
Starting point is 00:26:09 but if you want to have the extra pick considerations, you want to see what that roster is, put the best players out there. Why not? What do you lose? And especially, and here will be a big, tall-tail sign.
Starting point is 00:26:23 I didn't mean to extend an easy question you asked me. If the Baltimore Orioles, who probably like the Diamondbacks, aren't going to be able to compete heavy in free agency, they have to compete in the trade market. Jordan Westberg would be a prime player to get moved. If you see a guy like Jordan Westberg go on, I think that's another small block in Jackson Holiday's potential start that's gone.
Starting point is 00:26:48 And I think to me, that would signal him being on that opening day roster, Holiday. The early ADP for Holiday through 40 NFBC drafts, 202.4. And if we get any indication that he is going to be up on opening day or if he's crushing spring training, I mean, this is the guy. this is the Jordan Walker, the Anthony Volpe of last year, where it is just a rocket ship up the ADP. It could be inside the top 120, inside the top 100 picks. No, I'll tell you, it's inside the top 100.
Starting point is 00:27:20 Remember when I was on here a couple of years ago, and Bobby Witt wasn't there, and we were in the offseason, and I told you guys, I'm like, Bobby Witt will be a top 100 pick, easy top 100 pick, and we kind of debated it, and then all of a sudden he's going to make the roster, he's going to get there, and he went into the 75 to 60s. Jackson Holiday will be a top 100 pick if we get, if we get the sniff, he's going to go inside the top 150.
Starting point is 00:27:44 If their announcement happens, it is guaranteed inside the top 100 for sure. All right. The number two shortstop prospect is Jordan Lawler from your Arizona Diamondbacks. First round pick back in 2021. Got off to a slow start this year, but wound up with a strong season in the minors. He hit 278, 20 homers, 36 deals in 874 OPS. He did get 14 games. in with the D-backs at the end of the year,
Starting point is 00:28:09 34 plate appearances where you hit 129 with a 32% strikeout rate. Welsh, the question on Jordan Waller, how much do you worry about the strikeouts and the hit tool? Because I've looked at different publications. Fangraphs has Jordan Lawler as a potential 40 hit tool. That's what they're saying the peak is for Jordan Lawler.
Starting point is 00:28:30 And if that's the case, I mean, that's like a, what, 2.30, 240 hitter. So where do you kind of fall on the hit tool, the strikeouts being a problem for Jordan Lawler? I think the strikeouts might be like a little bit overplayed. Like I'm not going to I'm not going to overly read into like 30 at bats at the major leagues in September for a player and be like, oh, these are a problem. I mean, listen, it's there, but 101 times over 417 at bats in the minors. That's roughly a 25% strikeout rate.
Starting point is 00:29:03 He walks a decent amount. We can do that. and he has had a steady decline in batting average, but he still hit 278 this past year across two levels while hitting 358 in the PCL, which you kind of should. So I think the strikeout numbers are a little bit overplayed. Counting stats have always been there, 20 homers, 36 stolen bases this past year,
Starting point is 00:29:23 only got caught five times, so 41 attempts. And he's been hyper-aggressive. He did that in the AFL. He's got some easy pop that he gets into. At AA, where he had over 300 of his at-bats this year, He ended up hitting like 340 against lefties. He destroyed lefties. So, I mean, there wasn't a big platoon split problem.
Starting point is 00:29:42 But there's a big adjustment coming from, especially hitting in like a hitter-friendly environment in the PCL to the majors. You know, what are reasons to be optimistic? Well, I think the Diamondbacks hitting development has seen a huge positive. Christian Walker from years ago has improved. Alec Thomas started to see improvement. Corbyn Carroll's the blatantly obvious one. And you also have these players to work with them.
Starting point is 00:30:04 I remember when I saw Corby and Carroll, when I was talking about Corbyn Carroll two times ago in November, he was out last November and I was like, hey, you know, blah, blah, well, we were talking and we were like, what are you here for? And he's like, oh, I'm here to see one of my friends, one of my friends in the AFL. I'm like, oh, who?
Starting point is 00:30:21 And he's like, oh, Jordan Lawler. And it's like, we can say Jordan Lawler. We know who you're talking about. So they're buddies. I mean, they're close. I'm not saying like, hey, you know, Carol's going to take him under his wing, but I do think that Carol's been known to do that.
Starting point is 00:30:33 You take that organization. with guys like Carol, can we fix strikeout problems? Yes. Has he shown big counting stat impact in the miners? Yes. Has he had any big, crazy, platoony split issues?
Starting point is 00:30:45 No. So I'm optimistic. I'm optimistic that Jordan, do I think Jordan Lawler is going to be elite of elite? Maybe not, but we also saw, I think he could take a similar path
Starting point is 00:30:54 to C.J. Abrams. It might be a little bit tougher. I think Lawler can steal 40 bases if given the opportunity, and I think he can hit 20 homers. So I think that's a peak. But I also wonder if it's going to happen with the Diamondbacks because I think he might be a prime player they need to look at at trades.
Starting point is 00:31:09 But either way, I think Jordan Lawler is given an opportunity to start the year, but their moves are going to be really important because how do you take Pridomo off of that team? And if they are trying to go get a big third baseman, we're just going to have to monitor what his opportunities are going to look like. But I do think the depth of the organization, they might be willing to move off. And lastly, places like fan graphs, the scouting with like Eric Langenhagen are probably going to be closer to representative of how real scouting is thought. So if you see them giving a 40-grade hit tool, that is probably what you're going to see in a lot of more pro scouts that might be a little bit of a negative where a team might be willing to move off
Starting point is 00:31:50 while they feel they can still sell high. That's why I think the pitching market and Lawler might make a lot of sense. The early ADP for Jordan Lawler is 272.9. So I think there could be a buying opportunity there. Still have to see what the Diamondbacks do this off season. They've been linked to Justin Turner. Maybe they bring in a third basement, whatever it might be. But Heraldo Pordomo is still there, as you mentioned. But the early roster resource has Loller at short and Pardomo at third. And if they don't make any other crazy moves, then that might be what they roll with on opening day. We'll have to see. Also, I just want to point on Steamer, projected 12 homers, 19 stolen bases with a 234 batting average. That is a very typical.
Starting point is 00:32:31 young, talented prospect line, low batting averages, but under 25% projected strikeout rate. So just wanted to throw that out. The number three shortstop prospect is Jackson Meryl from the Padres. He is 20 years old, first round pick from 2021. He went 27th overall in that draft. This season in the minors went 277 batting average, 15 homers, 15 steals across high A and AA. Pretty big dude for a shortstop prospect.
Starting point is 00:32:59 He's 6 foot 3, 195. doesn't walk too much, but makes a ton of contact, just a 12% strikeout rate in the minors this year. Every outlet I looked at loves Jackson Merrill's hit tool. The question, Welsh, is there enough else? Do you think there's enough power? Is there enough speed to make a huge impact in fantasy? What are your thoughts on Jackson Merrill?
Starting point is 00:33:19 I do. I love Jackson Merrill. This definitely might test the like real life versus fantasy. This is definitely his most successful counting stat season. 15 homers, 15 stolen bases, and 114 games. You know, maybe in a full season, that's like a 2020, but he doesn't strike out 62 times and 466 at bats. He has shown a really mature plate presence,
Starting point is 00:33:43 and he did it last year in the AFL too, not afraid to punch the ball opposite field. He obviously is, and he was trying during that AFL to take a more launch angle-based approach, but this is an all-field's contact hitter. and very adept to the craft too. He was out here the whole time. This AFL while we were hanging,
Starting point is 00:34:03 he's got a house here. He's training out here in camps out here. I mean, this is a serious, serious thing. And there was thought that he could be at the majors last year. Him and Zander Bogart's built a relationship. And Zander really,
Starting point is 00:34:16 really took to Jackson Merrill as is, as has the organization as well. And, you know, I think there's a possibility that he doesn't meet the fantasy expectations of his hype, but the hit tool, it has such a good floor, and he is building on every season that, you know, I think it's a very, very high possibility. He's hitting at the top of an order.
Starting point is 00:34:38 He's a 20-20 hitter. And if you're hitting in front of, you know, the Tatis and Machadoes of the world, you could push 100 runs on a full given season. So that's how I approach him. And I think you probably, I don't think there's a 40 or 50 stolen base in there. I don't think there's a 30 or 40 home run.
Starting point is 00:34:54 I think he can just be a well-rounded, shortstop that doesn't hurt you aggressively in too many areas, maybe like a tiny bit in the RBI department. But like when you're looking at guys like Volpe, you know, Volpe has got some loud counting stats, but a absolutely garbage average that you hope improves, you're going to be looking at Jackson Merrill just saying, hopefully the quality of contact just builds bigger counting stats. And sometimes those are better bet players. Look at the player on his own team, right? You mentioned he has a relationship with Zander Bogart's. I think that would be kind of a good player or idea to kind of model himself after,
Starting point is 00:35:29 good batting average, you know, 20-ish home runs, maybe, you know, 10 to 15 steals, something like that. And obviously, that would be a really useful player for fantasy. Again, this is Jackson Merrill. We're talking about long-term position-wise. Obviously, the Padres do have a lot of players
Starting point is 00:35:44 in their infield. I'm looking at his games played by position. We have a game at first base. We have two at second. We have five in left field. So I think they're starting to kind of experiment, trying to find ways maybe get Jackson Merrill to the majors.
Starting point is 00:35:59 What's your gut feel here? Do you think he sticks at shortstop? Because I mean, the Padres are pretty loaded. I think, I want to say, I think he's a plus defender. I think he is, he's a plus shortstop, which would make him a plus second baseman. I don't know if he would have the power to be a third baseman that a team would want to make that commitment. But they just want him in the lineup. Obviously, Zander kind of, they have this weird situation where it's like Machado is
Starting point is 00:36:26 there and Zander's there and how do you move either one of those guys? I guess I wouldn't be shocked if maybe you moved, I could see Zander going to second and then Merrill taking over shortstop as age is creeping in and Machado's at third, which leaves a hole for Hassan Kim and where he would go, but it's very convoluted and that's what makes it this tricky, but pointing out Machado could miss some early time and or be relegated to DH, which then there might even be the flexibility for the team to get.
Starting point is 00:36:56 not saying they will, they probably just get some utility player, but I don't think it's out of the question that you could see Jackson Merrill early on, you know, playing some type of a platoon on the infield with Hassan Kim and Zander Bogart's. The number four shortstop prospect is Sebastian Walcott, a 17-year-old who turned a bunch of heads this year, international signing by the Rangers last January. This is a big dude, six foot three plus power. Looks like above average speed as well. He's from the Bahamas. He's drawn some comps to Jazz Chisholm based on some things that I've read as well. And now I'm trying to think
Starting point is 00:37:30 of all the prospects that we've talked about this off-season Welsh. Walkout might be one of the toughest ones to evaluate because he's so young. He's 17. He turns 18 in March. It's such a small track record so far. He's only played 48 games, obviously, in the minors. So, I mean, we are
Starting point is 00:37:45 projecting far out, like three, four years from now. But so far, everything that we've heard about this kid is, you know, the bat is loud, the power is loud. I know you had a chance to see him. I know you have some contacts in the Rangers organization. What's the feel right now for Sebastian Walcott? Yeah, well, I mean, you know, he's young.
Starting point is 00:38:04 Like he had a, he's had some disciplinary stuff that happened early on. But, you know, I would point this out. He is far away. But with how these guys progress, he might not be that far away. You know, they pushed him to high A, which again, might have just been more about the seasonal stuff instead of going to A ball. But he got a few at bats in high A. he is like polar sides of everything insane talent physically gifted he could easily steal 30 bases he could easily hit 30 plus homers he's an electric personality it has very Fernando Tatis junior vibes to it but there's also big strikeout problems it's going to be how do how does he progress and how do they want him to end up progressing he dominated early on and he kind of faded a little bit towards the end up hitting 273
Starting point is 00:38:52 in the Arizona Complex League where he was well over 300 for some time and he got challenged and I think he got challenged personally and physically and the strikeouts are a massive problem but you have two sides you have people that look at the strikeouts and go way overrated too young
Starting point is 00:39:08 and you have others that go this is the type of insane talent from the Ellie's of the world from the Nuelvees from the Fernando Tatis this is the stuff that you look for you look for that electric feel from a player and I saw him a bunch. I'd also point out,
Starting point is 00:39:24 I saw him a couple weeks ago in the AFL. It's surprise, I walked right past him, and he already looks bigger. He looks like 10 or 15 pounds bigger. I think he's been here a decent amount of the time. So you give me a bigger Sebastian Walcott that maybe has a more nuanced approach
Starting point is 00:39:41 that isn't as crazy strikeout heavy. I think that's a good thing. If we see under 30%, I think he could rocket to the system. And I don't think it's out of pocket to say he could be, AA shortstop this coming year at 18 years old. All right, let's take our final break.
Starting point is 00:39:56 When we return, we'll break down the rest of the top shortstop prospects. Some Dynasty trade targets. We'll do all of that right after this. Welcome back in. We have about 20 minutes left. So here's what I'm going to do well. So I'm going to pair some of these names together. Number five and six in your shortstop rankings.
Starting point is 00:40:12 We have Colson Montgomery from the White Sox and Brooks Lee from the Minnesota Twins. With Montgomery, we got a chance to see him out in the Arizona Fall League. We talked about this a lot. I think the White Sox purposely wanted Montgomery to be aggressive out there. He was swinging a lot. We saw some strikeouts. Personally, I saw some bad strikeouts. But then I also saw in the Fall Stars game when he hit a 4008 foot home run off of a lefty.
Starting point is 00:40:38 And he was named the Fall Stars game MVP. So obviously kind of getting a chance to see all sides of Colson Montgomery while I was out there. And then Brooks Lee, I think there's a lot to like here. First round picking 2022. It looks like the hit tool will be the. carrying tool, is there enough power? What are your thoughts here on both Montgomery and Brooks Lee? Yeah, I'm going to do one other side thing. I'm going to say, I believe the tier here you add in the next three players. Nine of my 10 that we're talking about are inside my top 50.
Starting point is 00:41:07 So I want to point that out as people are hearing names because there's a couple names. There's people like, who is this name? He's coming up, but I believe it's a similar tier. What Colson and Brooks provide lack stolen bases, but I do believe provide good power and close to the majors. I think Colson could break camp with them not having a shortstop. Brooks Lee had a bunch of time at AAA already. Obviously, there might be a little bit of a, you know, a block, but 38 games at AAA, he might be a future third base bat. I do think the power is going to progress. He has a big, uppercut swing, probably going to have to tap into a little bit more hard hit. But 16 homers and 500 at bats hitting 275 across double A and AAA is pretty
Starting point is 00:41:46 good. I might be a little bit higher on him. There's a little bit of proximity that's built in. and I think Colson is a way higher potentialed player. But throwing in these next three guys, you've got two Mets players and a Cardinals player. I don't mean to jump on it, but I know we're even caught on time. But like Luis on Helacuna is a player that could move to second and be at the majors really soon.
Starting point is 00:42:10 And the two following that at eight and nine, Thomas A Jacey and Jet Williams, those two could be as high as four and five on this list. And in some people's minds are, but when you do consider some of the now factors, even though C.J.C. got to AAA, he's so blocked. But Jet Williams is the furthest away. And the reason I'm pairing all of these is because they all are such different spectrums of the shortstop position. Colson and Brooks, Colson specifically, I think, is the bigger power potential. Brooks is the closest to now. Acuna is a big stolen base option who could move position.
Starting point is 00:42:50 And Sejisi is the cleanest player of all, lead minor league baseball and hits, while Jet Williams is the most electric upside player. So it's flavors to different appetites for shortstop, whether you're looking for production now, whether you're trying to count certain categories. The best option for every category is number eight, Thomas Sejacy, who was a Texas Ranger who got traded to the Cardinals. he qualifies, I think, at every five category you're looking for, while the others fit certain other criteria. Yeah, I wanted to quickly touch on Luis Anhele Ocuna, the number seven shortstop prospect. He is Ronald Acuna's little brother for the, I mean, some people might know. He was acquired in the Max Scherzer trade this season.
Starting point is 00:43:35 Smaller dude, five foot eight, big stolen base numbers. 57 steals in the minors this year. He had 40 plus in each of the prior two seasons as well. I think the main question there, does he do enough else? Is there enough of a hit? Is there enough pop there outside of the speed for Ocuna? And just kind of pairing him up with Jet Williams, who you talked a little bit about,
Starting point is 00:43:56 just turned 20 years old in November, first round pick in 2022, 13 homers, 45 steals, 425 on base percentage. What a unique guy. I mean, normally, I might be scared off a little bit of prospects that are like speed first as their main tool. but when you have an eye like that, he hit 263 with a 425 on base percentage.
Starting point is 00:44:20 That is just such an interesting blend of tools and skills. So your thoughts there on both Acuna, is there enough outside of speed? And Jet Williams, I mean, just such a unique talent. Yeah, I got, I've seen Luis San Hell a ton. I was actually one of the biggest defenders years ago because there were so many people that were like, he's a gimmick.
Starting point is 00:44:40 He's a Ronald's brother. And I watched him before. complex or it was it was yeah it was like right before complex or a ball in the um rangers camp where the rangers team is having him hit three with all these other minor leaguers and you saw again you saw the swag you saw the approach you saw this big upper cut aggressive swing like if you're going to be a five foot eight player you're definitely going to have to optimize every element of barreling the ball right Ocuna does that. It didn't show up insanely from a power's perspective
Starting point is 00:45:14 because he had nine homers in 1208 games. They also 28 doubles. That's 12 more doubles than he had had in any season. And I think doubles can easily be good generators to potential future power. You might be looking at a 1550 guy, 1540 guy, a lower-in version of what C.J. Abrams can do. And I think that's really good.
Starting point is 00:45:36 Jet Williams, there are people that are much higher on him than I. And I don't blame anybody. You just 100 walks, 100 walks across three levels as like a 1920 year old. That's absurd. A 425 OBP, that's absurd. Where are the concerns, there might be some power concerns. There's a size concern. He's listed at 5 foot 6.
Starting point is 00:45:59 He's got a big, he's got huge bat speed, an upper cut approach. Again, fully optimized to his best. but there's something about like a five foot six player being at the top 20 and you know being challenged at even higher levels but i think he's created a great floor i think these guys are relatively similar i probably bet on a coon you having a little bit more power but jet williams just had more again top 50 prospects these guys are these are top 50 don't get so focused on numbers as some people will out there they're great if you want and there's a thousand reasons in fantasy why Acuna and Jet Williams make more sense than Brooks Brooks Lee. I'm for that. And I, you know what? There may be some changes as I continue to dig in this year, but there's also that proximity effect that you have with all these guys. These are great shortstop bets. We have not had a position we broke down where nine of the 10 are inside of a top 50. That's crazy. Number eight and 10 on this list. You already mentioned Thomas C.C. who is with
Starting point is 00:47:03 the Cardinals. He's 21 years old. Came over in the Jordan Montgomery. trade this year. You mention it a little bit, not even just a little bit, a lot of bit of everything this year. Hit 306, 26 homers, 12 steals, a 904 OPS that was between AA and AAA. The one problem is where does he play for now? He looks like he might be kind of blocked. The Cardinals have a lot of these names, both in their outfield and their infield right now. So a lot of moving parts there with St. Louis. And the number 10 name, who we haven't mentioned yet, is Adela Amador from the Rockies, who is 20 years old and just hit 287, 12 homers, 15 steals. He did that in just 69 games. He also had more walks than strikeouts, 39 walks to 37 strikeouts. I almost don't even care what the power
Starting point is 00:47:50 and speed upside is. If you're telling me, there is a hitter with this kind of tool that will walk more than he strikes out and you put him in Corse Field. I mean, everything on top of that is probably just gravy. So he's the one we haven't mentioned yet. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I mean, I think you said it best. Like he he was injured and he missed some time this past year, but under 300 at bats, 12 homers, 15 stolen bases and he hit 287. He also played a little bit. It was more recovery when he played here in the AFL, but high A and into double A. He just needs to be battle tested more, but there is 20-20 potential in there. He doesn't strike out and he walks. Great combo. Quality of contact is pretty high. He's kind of set the floor. So this is one of those players that is also
Starting point is 00:48:34 in a completely hitter-friendly environment. So what do you want to start pretending? You want to start pretending this is a 2020 player. The problem is that the Rockies and the Rockies would go sign, you know, Brandon Crawford on a three-year deal to block him. So that's a bigger question overall. But Adele Amador is great.
Starting point is 00:48:51 And, you know, the last thing I would add to all of this, there's probably four or five other short stops that are right there for me. I mean, this is the depth. This is the thing. People are like, you know, should I build my system? and should I trade this shortstop because I have this other? No, you shouldn't.
Starting point is 00:49:07 I do not build minor league systems in fantasy based around positional needs. Get the best players because all of these guys that we're looking at, I think every single one of these players could move. I kind of want to say like holidays not. Every single one of these other guys could be a different position. Jet Williams, maybe second base you'd feel better. Usually just shorter. You might put him at second base.
Starting point is 00:49:32 So Jacey, Outfield, Acuna, second, Brooks Lee, third, Colson, third. I mean, I'm just doing the whole thing. Walcott, center field. Every single one of them can play a different position. So just reiterate, get the best players. And shortstop is littered with them on best bets. And there are guys that are 17 years old that I've gotten in the top 100. We didn't talk about Roderick Arias, Yodi Vargas with the Dodgers,
Starting point is 00:49:56 to even guys like Marcella Mayer who are moving closer. There's some great short stops out there. So build them up. but these 10, these are the 10 strong. I think it's a great point that you bring up. And it's something I have thought about myself. I only play in one Dynasty League. We reference it quite a bit here, the Scott White Dynasty League.
Starting point is 00:50:12 But I have a bunch of these names on my team. And I don't really care. I mean, if it becomes a problem later on, all right, I guess I'll have to decide which one I trade away. But man, if these guys turn into something, that's a great problem to have on your dynasty team. I have Walcott. I have Jordan Lawler.
Starting point is 00:50:28 I have Jet Williams. I have Sejacy. So I'm rooting for all these guys. and you know. How do we let that happen? If it becomes a good problem, then all right, well, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Again, the top 10 shortstop prospect from the Welsh.
Starting point is 00:50:42 We have Jackson Holiday up top, followed by Jordan Lawler, Jackson Merrill, Sebastian Walcott, Colson Montgomery, Brooks Lee, Luis Anhele-Cunia, Thomas Sejacy, Jet Williams, and Adele Amador, the top five proximity shortstops. So if you're doing early drafts or you just have your mind on redraft leagues, Jackson Holiday is up at the top, followed by Lawler, Colson Montgomery, Brooks Lee, and Sejacy. Those are the ones most likely to make an impact this season.
Starting point is 00:51:11 Welsh Dynasty trade targets. Let's make it quick. We don't have much time left. Who is a shortstop you were looking to buy in Dynasty? Let's make it quick, shall we? The Dynasty Buy, well, how about not Amador? How about Ezekiel Tovar? A couple notes for you.
Starting point is 00:51:27 8.1% barrel percentage this year with a 12.6 launch angle. that's pretty good. And by the way, pretty crazy mirror to Anthony Volpe with a lot of the underlying stats. Two biggest differences, average. Volpe has positive regression in the form of XBA, but Tovar has sustainability with his batting average. The other are the hard-of-hit numbers.
Starting point is 00:51:48 Volpe has that. Tovar doesn't. But the more I looked at Tovar's profile, it's just missing the hard hit. That's the thing. That could jump in multiple tiers, and I think that is very obtainable. But that is the big ask here.
Starting point is 00:52:03 Tovar only had a 36.2% hard hit rate, which was 3% more than the previous year. Something else that stood out, though, about him. And I think this is very encouraging. 51.1% hard hit rate against four seam fastballs. That's a huge hard hit rate against four seams, which he sees the most. Volpe, for example, had a 62% against fastball. So it's just going to be about being able to hit sliders. What is that pitch recognition?
Starting point is 00:52:33 Having a little bit better pitch recognition as time goes on. It is low, hard hit against the rest right now. So once that pitch wreck comes up, it'll be very good. Lastly, Volpe had a, I'm sorry, Tovar had a 109.8 max EV, which was higher than Volpe. So when we're talking about, can we build those hard hit numbers? That's what we're looking for. I think that's the last puzzle in this piece. Well, he almost registered a 110, which is higher than guys that you would put Volpe as a
Starting point is 00:53:01 20 to 25. So I just use him as kind of a benchmarker I thought, but Tovar, I think might be a really interesting buy right now, especially if improvements continue. You heard it here first, Ezekiel Tovar, the first puzzle in this piece. That's right. That's what you said, Welsh. Puzzle in this piece. First piece in the puzzle. But that's the Welshism. You said it wrong. And then I was like, what's wrong with that? That sounds right. Nope, that's my brain just transposing it. Yeah, we have puzzle in the piece. We have, we have the John Sterlingisms. Now we We have the Welsh isms as well. Two names for me looking to buy.
Starting point is 00:53:35 If anybody in your Dynasty League, my guess is this probably won't be the case. Jordan Lawler is considered a top 10, top 15 consensus prospect right now. But if anybody is worried about those strikeouts or this incredibly small sample we saw at the end of the year or even, you know, the pro scout hit tool numbers that they have on Jordan Lawler, I'd be looking to buy. I still think that there is a huge fantasy option there. I think he could be like a 20, 30 kind of guy. I don't know what the batting average kind of settles in as. And look, most people again, they're probably not selling low on Jordan Lawler, but who knows, maybe one out of every 10 leagues,
Starting point is 00:54:12 there might be someone who's a little bit more down on Jordan Lawler. So I would just poke around and see. The other name I'd be looking to buy is Dansby Swanson. We've kind of seen these up and down seasons from Swanson. First year in Chicago didn't go so great, was dealing with a bruised heel, didn't run as much. Might have been due to the injury. But now they have Craig Counsel there.
Starting point is 00:54:30 the brewers were very aggressive on the base paths under Craig counsel. I think Swanson's going to get back to running. I think we could see 15, 20 plus deals, 20 to 25 homers. He, you know, the batting average has fluctuated over the years. Actually just put up like a career high 10% walk rate too. So I think there is, you know, still a buying opportunity here on Danesby Swanson. I think we get a couple more really good years out of him in fantasy. A shortstop you'd be looking to sell in Dynasty.
Starting point is 00:54:57 We talked about him a little bit earlier. How about Zandibov Arts? Zander Bogartz has got Jackson Merrill on his heels, maybe even a Hassan Kim, if things don't go right. He's coming off a career high 19 stolen bases, which was like crazy. That's a revelation to him. The positive is it may boost up his value a little bit,
Starting point is 00:55:18 which I kind of like, because Xander is on a three-year decline on hard hit, barrel percentage, launch angle, and expected batting average. As well, he also had an expected home run total of 17, which would be down two. I think two. Did I transpose that incorrectly from his overall numbers?
Starting point is 00:55:35 But I do know it was an expected two down from his actual home run total. So if you've got stolen bases up, which get people a little bit jacked up and excited, Xander Bogart still has some name value that I'm looking to sell off of with just like the list goes on of analytics that are trending in the wrong direction and a team that's kind of been trending in the wrong direction. And sometimes you just have to pull the rip cord out while you still can.
Starting point is 00:56:00 And any good positives visually for everybody is something I would try to jump off of. You know what? In Dynasty, you might be able to trade Bogarts for Tovar. And that would be something I would probably be pretty comfortable with. You know, I was scrolling through ADP. I was trying to find a name that made sense. Bogarts was the first one that just kind of screamed out to me. So I do second your call there on Bogarts as a Dynasty cell.
Starting point is 00:56:24 If you can get, you know, pretty decent value for him. still, he's entering his age 31 season next year. So it might be a good time to get off Bogart's while you can. The other name that came to mind, and it pains me to say, especially if you listen to the previous podcast, you know how much I like this guy. And I'm not a Mets fan. I'm a Yankee fan. Francisco Lindor is an awesome player.
Starting point is 00:56:47 I mean, one of four players to go 30-30 last year. He's a great defender. He's fun to watch. Brings the energy. He's just overall a player that I just really enjoy. joy, for fantasy and for real life purposes. But is he really going to get better than 30-30? This might be the peak. That's basically all I'm saying. If you could sell Francisco Lindor at his peak value right now, I don't know that it's going to get any better than this. With that being said,
Starting point is 00:57:11 I still think he's probably going to be really good for fantasy for the next, I don't know, maybe two to three years. But 30-30, I'm not sure that it's going to get better than that for Francisco Indoor. Last thing I wanted to do here and just kind of wrap up, it's Thanksgiving week. We're having fun here, Welsh, just some players that we're thankful for. MLB players, it doesn't have to be fantasy related. It could just be some of your favorite players. Obviously, we're thankful for a cunia. Just had maybe the best season in fantasy history.
Starting point is 00:57:37 Shohei Otani, a unicorn. We get that. Welsh, you're banned from saying Corby and Carol. We already... Oh, but the Corby Carroll's right behind me, like right there. We already know you love him. I am banned from saying Aaron Judge. He is obviously my favorite Yankees player.
Starting point is 00:57:52 Is there anyone else that comes to mind? Just your favorite players, players you're thankful for this Thanksgiving season. I'm thankful for Bobby Witt. I love Bobby Witt. I remember watching him on the backfields and like no one's around to watch him. And people are criticizing. He was the older guy that was drafted in the class. Oh, maybe he's a little bit too old.
Starting point is 00:58:13 He struggled in complex. But he showed off all these just great skill set. And that was the same year like Andrew Vaughn was a consensus pick for everybody, except for me. I mean, I don't want to do that. There's probably plenty of people. But in my little world of paying attention, everybody loved Vaughn,
Starting point is 00:58:27 and I just loved Bobby Witt. And I'm definitely making this about like, ooh, me. But I love the progression of Bobby Witt. I think he's a superstar. He's a face of a league that unfortunately already has a couple really great faces already. But I'm very thankful for getting to watch Bobby Witt and seeing monster seasons and him becoming an almost consensus top shortstop in fantasy. It's such a cool thing to when you,
Starting point is 00:58:52 see the player get drafted, you just kind of watch them from the bottom, from every level of the minors, just continue to progress and then get to the majors and turn into the superstar, right? I mean, look, I've been playing fantasy for what, 10, 15 years now, but really only started kind of like covering prospects the past couple of years with you on here, Welsh, and it's just really cool to go out to the AFL and see these guys playing at the minor league level and then get to the majors and eventually make a major impact. So I think, look at that. That is awesome. For those, I had to put this up here too. No, I completely agree with what you're saying.
Starting point is 00:59:26 And by the way, some little Bobby Whit cards on here. I hold to it. Bobby Witt is one of my guys. He has been for a long time. And I am a little, oh, the reflection on that, I am a little bit biased because I do have exactly what you just said. When you start to, you have a different perspective when you like pay attention to these guys from the lowest levels or in my case, like, I watch them when nobody knows who they are on the backfields. No one's there. It's 115 degrees.
Starting point is 00:59:52 So like my perspective gets a little skewed, probably annoying to plenty of people. But I'm very thankful for getting to see some of that progression. I'm banned from saying Corby and Carole, but Corbyn Carroll and Bobby Whit both played in that same Arizona Complex League, which was phenomenal. And, you know, like I said, it's a real thing. I love me some Bobby Whit. For those on the listening side, the Welsh just pulled off of his wall, a framed signed Bobby Whit jersey accompanied with a Bobby Whit. I assume that's like a rookie card or some kind of baseball card in that. Yeah, it's like his.
Starting point is 01:00:22 Bowman first signed by him in person and little All-American Prism card right there. That's amazing. Yeah. Oh, the Bobby Witt memorabilia. It runs deep here on fantasy baseball today. I did the Scott White thing where I was like, yeah, come up with like a name or two. And I just wrote down five. Five. Okay.
Starting point is 01:00:40 Just like quickly run through each of them. Bryce Harper has been my favorite player for a long time. I don't know if people even know that. I have a Bryce Harper Philly's jersey. He's my favorite active player. The guy just, he oozes swag. He comes up in the biggest moments. He's just so fun, he's so awesome.
Starting point is 01:00:54 I love Bryce Harper. Francisco Lindor for the reasons I mentioned. We don't talk about defense much for fantasy. He's such a good defender. Power, speed. He's been amazing. And obviously, look, I'm here in New York, so I get to see and watch and hear a lot about Francisco Lindor.
Starting point is 01:01:08 Same thing with Kodai Senga. I know he just got here, but like that ghost forkball is awesome. And I love that what they do in City Field, where every time he gets a strikeout, they put up one of the little like ghost emoji things in the ballpark and stuff. very fun player can i add to that you know what i love about that that you've said that i love
Starting point is 01:01:28 this is a me thing i love players that that alter the game that they they bring a pitch or they bring a a new vibe go like having a ghost thing that's this new goofy thing you have a little meme in the park but having these new pitches or this dominant new pitch i personally love when someone does something so abnormal to the game that like it becomes something that everybody knows about. And Seng it definitely has that with the Ghost Fork. You want to talk about abnormal bringing something to the game. Jazz Chisholm, man. I mean, the
Starting point is 01:01:59 swag. Just stay on the field, man. Just so thankful for a guy like him that I love what he brings, right? I wish there was more players like that. You know, doing the Euro step over home played and just the swag and the bat flips and, you know, the Kang Griffey follow through. It's just so much to like there with Jazz Chisholm. Very thankful for him. And lastly,
Starting point is 01:02:18 a healthy Tyler Glass now. I'm kind of developing this affinity for Tyler Glass now. I'm realizing I spoke a lot about him towards the end of the season. I've done one draft so far. I drafted him on that team. So when he's healthy, man, he is one of the five, ten best starting pitchers in all of baseball, throws hard, he's got the nasty hook. I saw an interview with Aaron Judge earlier this year.
Starting point is 01:02:41 He was on Mukie Betts's podcast. Mookie Betts asked him, who is the toughest pitcher to face? He said Tyler Glass now. And that's coming from Aaron Judge. So one of the best areas in the game, giving credit where it's due to some players. We're thankful for here. Welsh, they're up. I wanted to point this out with your jazz thing.
Starting point is 01:02:58 This is the Arizona Fall League. Lucius Fox is taking a picture of me, taking a picture of him. And Jazz, this was the championship game. That Jazz's personality was insane. They grabbed him and Lucius, both Bahamas guys, I believe Lucius is. They both grabbed cameras from photographers, and they went around the field pretending to be photographers that day. And that was Jazz's personality. He is one of the best personalities in baseball. Absolutely love it. Happy Thanksgiving to you, Welsh. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone out there
Starting point is 01:03:26 listening and watching. We appreciate you. We're going to wrap there for the Welsh. I am praying. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again next week. Bye bye.

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