Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Carlos Correa spurns the Giants and signs with the New York Mets! (12/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 21, 2022

Carlos Correa has reversed course and is now signing with the New York Mets (1:30)! How did this happen? ... How much does Correa's Fantasy value rise (5:00)? ... Correa will play third base for the Mets, which is a huge help in Fantasy (9:35). ... The Mets lineup is stacked but where might Starling Marte bat (14:25)? ... What happens with the Giants now (20:25)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. What is happening in one of the craziest sequences in baseball history? Carlos Correa has reversed course and is now signing with the New York Mets. Welcome in to another emergency edition of fantasy baseball today on Wednesday, December 21st. Frank Stamphill joined by a familiar face, Chris Towers, to break it all down. We'll get to the fantasy implications in just a little bit because there are many ripple effects of this signing. but let's first jump into what actually happened here from a baseball perspective, kind of walk everyone through what happened with Carlos Correa and why it fell through with the San Francisco Giants.

One week ago today, Correa agreed to terms, agreed to terms, on a 13-year, $350 million contract with the Giants pending a physical. Fast forward six days to yesterday, and we get news that the Giants have expressed concern over that physical examination. We know that Correa has dealt with back, rib-injuree. injuries in the past, although he's managed to stay relatively healthy each of the past two seasons. Last night, we get a Heyman bomb around 3 a.m. that Carl's Correa is signing with the New York Mets 12 years, $315 million, which Chris is somewhat interesting to me that Correa took one less year and less guaranteed money. So maybe there was some level of concern.

There's something there. Yeah, there's something on his side as well. So talk to me about just what this means for a baseball perspective. We've never seen anything like this. It's pretty significant. Yeah, I'm trying to think of situations where something like this has happened. I can think of one in the NFL. I think Randy Gregory had a similar situation with the Cowboys last offseason. But yeah, it's it's relatively rare. Medicals are usually viewed as a formality. So yeah, this is pretty shocking. The fact that Correa ends up signing for 35 million less than he originally agreed too does suggest that there's something there. And given his history,

it's fair to be a little concerned about what that might mean in the long term. But it's also still a situation where a team gave him $315 million. So they can't be too concerned, right? I mean, this is a team where if you think about the math involved with it, you know, it's not just the Mets giving him, you know, whatever his salary is going to be, whether it's front loaded, backloaded, whatever the salary ends up being.

it's going to cost them whatever the annual average value of the contract is plus 90% of that this season, the way the so-called Steve Cohen tax, the aptly named Steve Cohen tax works. So it's going to be what, 20, I'm not good at math, 26 million plus 90% of 26 million. This is like a $45 million outlay for the Mets next year in terms of what it's going to cost them. So at the very least in the short term, we can. can say pretty confidently that there are not that many concerns from the Mets side about what this means for Carlos Correa. It's, uh, I don't know, man, the, the, the Giants, I hope it was a big enough concern to blow up the deal because the Giants are going to end up striking out pretty big

this offseason on guys that they were, I mean, they were in on a lot of the biggest names this offseason. They ended up with Mitch Hanager. So it's not a, not exactly a, uh, a banner offseason for the Giants and I don't know, I hope it was worth it for them. You know, that's all I can say from a Giants perspective. And from the Mets perspective, they've got an owner who spends $130 million on like six inch tall aluminum sculptures. So, you know, this is what you hoped for when Steve Cohen took over the Mets and he said he was going to spend stupid amounts of money, I think was the quote.

So that's what he's doing, $1.6 billion in contract. outlays over the past two off seasons for the Mets. It is absolutely crazy stuff. Yeah, I was trying to think of a comparison to Steve Cohen buying those sculptures. I guess me paying, I don't know, $50 for a signed Funko Pop. That's probably the closest thing that I can get to Steve Cohen at this point. But yeah, I mean, that guy's worth, what, like $20 billion? So I don't even think $50 gets, gets you there.

Just to put this in perspective, if you're wondering about the Mets payroll, it's now estimated at around 384,000. million with the luxury tax included. That number jumps to $495 million. According to Jeff Passon, no team has ever come within $150 million of that $500 million threshold. So no one's approached $350. We're now talking about $495 million total with the estimated Steve Cohen tax on the Mets payroll as of now.

Let's get into Carlos Coray and talk about it from a fantasy perspective here, Chris. He was fine with the twins last year. year. He finished 104th overall in five by five leagues. Two point eight fantasy points per game was tied for 11th at the shortstop position. He hit 291 with 22 home runs. The counting stats were abysmal if we're being completely honest. The twins lineup was not great around him. They dealt with a lot of injuries. Carlos Correa also not great with runners in scoring position looking into that. This is a huge upgrade. The twins were 17th and run scored last year. The Mets were fifth. they now have Carlos Correa joining the likes of Francisco Lindor and P. Alonzo.

Before we actually get into the position side of things here, Chris, what do you think this actually does for Carlos Correa's fantasy value and maybe some of those players around him? I mean, if you look at the numbers last season, he hit 291, which is very good. He hit 22 homers, which in this context is not that bad anymore. You know, this is four years ago, 22 homers is pretty run in the middle, but in this environment, it's not so bad.

and then 134 combined runs in RBI is really bad. That's the kind of numbers that you expect from someone who's not really fantasy relevant. And so how much of last year struggles with runners and scoring position was real? He hit 277, but with only seven extra base hits in 121 plate appearances, leading to a 366 slugging percentage. For his career, he's basically been the same guy with runners in scoring position or the base is empty. And the weird thing with Carlos Correa last season is, he was the one of the best hitters in baseball, presumably, with runners on first base.

He had a 1041 OPS with just one runner on first base, which happened 142 times. Four doubles, 11 home runs, 24, he was awesome. And then once guys got past first base, things got a little hairy. He was actually really good with men on. And so it's all to say, this is probably just nothing, right? like he had 12 home runs with men on base, one home run with men in scoring position. I think there's nothing there. I think this is a situation where you can look at Carlos Correa's struggles with runners in

scoring position last season and basically write it off and just say something weird happened in those 121 played appearances. It's not been a concern for him throughout his career. He's not someone who historically has struggled with runners in scoring positions. So I think the counting stat numbers are going to be very good in this offense, or at least I would project them to be, you know, hitting behind Brennan Nimmo, who gets on base a ton, you know, potentially hitting behind, you know, we don't know how the lineup's going to look if he hits third behind Francisco Lindor. If he hits second in front of Francisco Lindor, either way. I think this is a situation where if you're going to project Carlos Correa to hit 290-ish and you're going to project him to hit 25-ish home runs, then I think you probably just project him for 90-plus runs in RBI.

And he should be a very, very good four category contributor. He doesn't run anymore. That's done. He hasn't. Yeah, he's never. He hasn't stolen a base in three seasons now. He hasn't stolen a base since 2019. So he's only attempted one steal since 2019.

He's actually still a pretty good athlete. But yeah, that's that part of his game's done. But you look at the underlying numbers, the quality of contact metrics. They're all still quite good. 96% down max ex of Velo, 60%. seventh percentile average exe velos, 93rd percentile expected Wobah, all of the numbers that we cite constantly. He looks like a really, really good hitter because he's still a really good hitter.

So I think this is a situation where Carlos Correa, weird stuff happened with the counting stats last season, but I think he's still a very, very good four category guy for fantasy and probably gets back to what he did in 2021 when he had 92 RBI, 104 runs. and, you know, was a very good option. Yeah, and I think this helps everyone around him too. Brendan Nimmo scored 102 runs last year in 151 games. We know health has been an issue for someone like Brandon Nimmo, but if he can stay on the field,

100 plus runs seems like a lot the way that he gets on base and the bats that are behind him. Francisco Lindor, great counting stats already last year. Now you put Correa just ahead of him. Pete Alonzo, same thing. Metz lineup is going to be. You want to led the league in RBI last year? I believe he was tied for the league lead with Aaron Judge.

So they were right there neck and neck I think they were right at 130 or 131 Something like that so yeah Those guys are going to be awesome once again We'll get to Starling Martin in just a little bit Because that one is a little bit more interesting Chris I want to talk about the positionality of all of this Carlos Correa now

Signing with the Mets is going to play third base He does join Francisco Lindora They are team Puerto Rico teammates for World Baseball Classic I'm sure they're very happy to be joining forces here I had to throw on my PR hat for my guy Carlos Correa getting the bag Absolutely it's gonna be so awesome to watch. I mean, that left side of the infield is absolutely ridiculous.

But Carl's Correa now plays third base. I mean, we haven't seen him do before. It helps. But that was inevitable. He was going to move to third base at some point in his career. And he has one of these strongest arms, maybe the strongest arm in baseball and around the infield. So I think he'll do just fine at third base. From a fantasy perspective, this is massive because third base is a wasteland. We were talking beforehand, Chris. I don't know that we've seen a bigger tier drop in ADP than what we're seeing right now. Alex Breggman goes at pick 82 in early drafts. Gunner-Hentersson goes up pick 92.

The next third baseman goes at pick 149 in A. Eugenio-Swarres. The ADP for Carlos Correa right now is 125. So I think he's actually going to move up a couple of rounds with this move. I could see 20, 25 spots of ADP. I think he gets close to pick 100, maybe climbs just inside pick 100. I don't know that he surpasses either Gunner Henderson or Alex Breggman, but I think that he will approach him in terms of ADP.

What are your thoughts there? Yeah, I think that that's probably all right. And obviously you have to remember he's not going to be, you're not going to be able to draft him as a third baseman. You'll have to have him in a shortstop or utility spot or middle infield, I guess. But he'll get third base eligibility probably in the second week of the season because we usually start on like a Thursday or Friday. So keep that in mind.

You may not have him for the first. two weeks of the fantasy season at third base. But yeah, like Gunner Henderson versus Carlos Correa, that's going to be a fascinating debate all offseason, I think, because Gunner Henderson is, you know, a bit of the mystery box. And he was pretty good last season in his, what was it, 20-ish games. I don't know if that's too big to call it a cup of coffee, 34 games. You know, he was pretty good. Very good in the minors.

So it's kind of a steady veteran guy like Carlos Corret. who does have plenty of upside himself versus Gunner Henderson, but I think the range is right. I think he's clearly going to push ahead of, I mean, he's already going ahead of Aeohenius Juarez and Max Muncie, but he's kind of in the middle of Gunner Henderson and those guys. He'll be inside the top 100, I think, and, you know, it's not a park thing. You know, it's not like we love city fields so much for hitters.

It's entirely the offensive environment that he's playing in. It's probably mostly a neutral park shift for Carlos Correa. But the situation he finds himself with the Mets. And the nice thing about baseball, you know, you and I are, you less so, but I'm totally in football mode right now. I'm starting to switch over. We've got a couple weeks left. But the thing about football is when you add a big name to a football offense, Christian McAfor gets traded with 49ers, we're like, oh, no, this might be bad.

Right. You know, because there's a pie. and you got to divvy up the pie. Baseball is not a pie. It's a, I don't know, some kind of amorphous blob that grows when you have good players in it. And so you add Carlos Correa to the Mets blob, and the Mets blob gets bigger. And it has an additive effect, and it makes everyone better. And it creates more plate appearances for everyone.

The better your offense is, the better it is for everyone. And so, you know, that's a good thing for Carlos Correa. He's in a much better offense. He should have much more. more opportunities for runs in RBI. And so all things considered, I think this is, this should absolutely move him into that Alex Bregman, Gunner Henderson range.

I was trying to think of a food analogy, Chris. I guess something like a gumbo, like what gets better the more that you add to it, right? And you just have a big old pot of gumbo, just keep adding stuff. I feel like that's probably baseball, or maybe chili, but if you add too much stuff to chili, I don't know, maybe it kind of throws it out a whack.

Chili's an interesting one, because you gotta have a good balance of flavors and you know my I made chili recently my wife saw me pouring some vinegar in it she was like what the what are you doing that's I hate vinegar and I was like trust me you need a little you need to cut the richness with some acidity so you know maybe maybe that's the the analogy we go with all right well if you're wondering we kind of touched on the ballpark here but it is basically a neutral park shift here going from Minnesota over the past three years there

home run factors for right-handed batters in particular the target field ranks 23rd, City Field ranks 20th. So maybe a slight uptick, but that's not why we're excited about Correa. It's more so about the lineup. And let's quickly talk about that lineup, Chris. The current top six of the New York Mets lineup, according to roster resource,

Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonzo, Jeff McNeil, Stalling Marte. Absolutely stacked. The problem here, stalling Marte batting sixth, I don't really know how this is going to change, Chris. I know lineups are very fluid

and a lot of things change throughout the season. People could get hurt. Players move around. Like if Nemo gets hurt, Starling Marte is probably leading off for the team. But the way that things are constructed right now, I don't know that he's going to hit higher than sixth, which kind of does change his value.

What do you think about that for Starling Marte? Yeah, that's a really tough one because one, like you said, an opening day lineup is not the same thing as a lineup all season. And then things will happen and, you know, presumably Starling Marte won't hit in the same spot in the lineup all season. But yeah, I mean, if they want to keep Brandon Nimmo at the top of the lineup, I suppose you could move everyone else down and hit Starling Marte second and go Correa 3rd, Lindor. But like either way, you're taking opportunities away from, you know, Pete Alonzo in particular,

who I think they probably want to keep in the line, the cleanup spot. So I, yeah, it's hard to make the the puzzle pieces fit in a way where this isn't a downgrade for Starling Marte. It probably is. And, you know, given the fact that you can always count on Starling Marte to miss 30 or 40 games, it's, it's definitely a downgrade. And then the fact that he didn't run as much last season, we don't know, you know, obviously he may run more with the new rules and then all that stuff. But, you know, it's possible that he's towards the end of his time as an elite base dealer, which would make it really tough to trust him for fantasy. All of a sudden, you're looking at a guy who's just kind of a like middling power decent speed.

But I don't know, we've also gone through this with Starling Marte before, right? There was a period where it looked like he was slowing down, 2019, he only had 25 steals in 132 games. Then he gets to the Marlins and starts running wild in 2021. So yeah, I think it's a concern for Starling Marte and it's a downgrade, but I don't think you want to overreact too much. because, you know, if he starts running again, it doesn't matter as much where he hits, right?

Like, every lineup spot is typically worth around 15 to 20 plate appearances over the course of a season. So moving down from second to sixth is, that's a significant drop. You know, that's probably a 15% reduction in plate appearances if it's stretched for the full season. And go ahead, finish your stop.

But, you know, Nimmo misses a month. All of a sudden, Marte is back in the leadoff spot. So it's hard to, you know, you don't want to overreact too much to line up stuff. And if people are going to push Marte down at all, I'm just going to keep gobbling it up. I've done two and a half NFBC draft so far. I have starring Marte in all three of them because his 8 EP early on is 78. It just seems a little bit too reactionary, especially the way that outfield. This is a guy who was a second round pick last year in 15 team leagues.

The way outfield is set up is it's not very good this year. So if you can get someone with 20-20 upside in the. sixth or seventh round. I think that is great value. And again, things can change with the lineup. Right here on Twitter, WebZ Love points out, you know, they could go Nimmo, Marte, Lendor, Alonzo, Correa. They could back Correa 5th if they wanted to do that. It's not out of the realm of possibility. So we'll see what happens there. But if anyone is downgrading starring Marte, I'll be looking to gobble up that value. And one thing I will say going back to the third base discussion, just because I started looking at the numbers a little bit. And I'm not so sure Alex

Breggman should be ahead of him. Like at this point, Breggman, he never strikes out still. And that we typically associate with being very good for batting average. However, he sells out so much for power that he hasn't really hit for a good batting average. And I mean, a good batting average is, I don't know, 277, I think is what he hit last season. 270 is what he hit in 2021. That's good. But he hasn't hit like for a really helpful batting average since 2019.

been 242, 270, 259. His Babbat has never been high, but the last few years, with the dead ball especially, you know, it could be a situation where, like, he just is a 260 to 270 hitter, and Bregman or Correa might be a 280 to 290 hitter with similar power and run production numbers.

So I think that's exactly the right range. And I could see my side, I could see talking myself into Correa over Bregman. Steamer auction values right now over on Fangrae, have Alex Bergman as a $19 player. They have Correa as an $18 player. Yeah, that seems perfectly reasonable. Very, very similar.

The difference is probably Correa expected to miss a few more games on a yearly basis than Breggman is. But on a per game basis, it would not surprise me if Correa actually outperforms Alex Breggman this upcoming season. Last thing I wanted to touch on here, what does it mean for the other third baseman

on the Mets roster or the future of the third base position for them? Because Eduardo Escobar now moves to the bench. This absolutely crushes his value I don't really see. Maybe he's the DH. Right now, it looks like he might be the short side of a platoon with Dan Vogelbach. I've already seen, you know, maybe they can look to trade him,

and I think teams could be interested. Eduardo Escobar had a really strong final month of the season. So maybe someone's looking for a veteran out there. But for now, if he remains on the Mets, this completely crushes Eduardo Escobar's value. And they have a really good third base prospect in Brett Beatty. I don't really know what this does with him long term. I think it'll work its way out.

like they'll either move him to the outfield or he'll be traded to another team where he will get an opportunity to play third base, but just something to kind of get your mind thinking, like what's going to happen with Brett Brady? I'm not exactly sure what's going to happen there. And what's going to happen with the Giants now?

I don't know. I genuinely, Chris, feel bad for Giants fans because they had a three-day stretch where they thought they had one or both of Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. Freaking John Heyman. And now they have none, which is He must be, he must be like public enemy number one for Giants fans at this point.

Disaster. Yeah. And there's no one left. There's no one left, Chris. Like Danesby Swanson signed the other day with the Cubs. Carl Sordauntan signed with the Yankees last week. Unless they go out and make a trade. But it's not like they have a great farm system either.

So I don't really know what happens here with the Giants. Yeah, it's, um, it's bad. I mean, you look at their lineup and it's pretty gross all the way around. You know, even if Correa had signed. would still be a pretty middling. I mean, they've been a pretty good offense with, you know, middling talent the last couple of seasons anyway. But yeah, it doesn't look great.

That looks like a pretty mediocre offense. They're going to have to win a lot of games with their pitching. And, you know, they've got solid pitching. I like the Mania and stripling pickups for them. I think those guys will fit in well in San Francisco. But yeah, it's not looking great for the Giants. This is, again, like I said earlier in the podcast, I, for their sake, I hope they're very confident in the medicals that they backed off on because that could really hurt in the long run if, you know, Carlos Correa stays healthy and is a superstar for the Mets. So it's, yeah, I don't know what the what the pivot is for them.

They're a really smart organization. They're really well run. But yeah, they kind of, it felt like they were all in on landing a big fish this year, this offseason. And, you know, I don't know what the pivot is. Yep. Sorry out there to Giants fans. But once again, to recap, Carlos Correa is signing with the New York Mets, a 12-year, $315 million deal, which will take him through his age 40 season.

We're going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching this emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball. Today, we'll be back again later on tonight. Bye-bye.