Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Carlos Rodon signs with the New York Yankees! - Emergency Podcast (12/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 16, 2022

Carlos Rodon just signed a six-year deal with the New York Yankees (1:00)! ... Should we worry about Rodon's health at this point (4:35)? ... What's his ADP in early drafts (7:05)? ... Omar Narvaez signed with the Mets (9:40). What does it mean for Francisco Alvarez? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. And then there was one. Welcome in to a late night, emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. Thursday, December 15th, Frank Sample joined. Once again, as always by Scott White, and the Bronx Bombers are back to their spending ways. Oh my goodness gracious.

This time signing Carlos Rodon to a six-year deal worth $162 million. Scott, one of the best rotations, I think we could say all around baseball. Now the New York Yankees, including Garrett Cole, Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, Nesser Cortez, and Frankie Montas. Carl Sordaun coming off a monster season

with the Giants, where he had a 2.88 ERA, a 103-3-Wip, 237 strikeouts, third most in baseball. He was 30th overall in Roto, 16.6 fantasy points per game. He was fantastic, Scott. Your initial thoughts, Carl Sorda, to the Yankees.

Well, it's a tougher place. to pitch. Obviously, coming from Oracle Park, where he had a 193 ERA last year. Yankee Stadium, you know, it's on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of being hitter-friendly instead of pitcher-friendly. So that raises some concerns, especially since Carlos Rodan is a flyball pitcher, you know, left-handed rather than right-handed. so you have to imagine he wouldn't be facing a ton of left-handers

when he pitches who would take advantage of that short portion right field. But, you know, I'm just laying out the facts here. Here's another fact, though, that I found interesting. Even though the Yankee Stadium has the reputation, it has, an Oracle Park has the reputation, it has. And Rodan, as I mentioned, more of a flyball pitcher. Stackast suggests he would have allowed only six home runs last year if he pitched every game at Yankee Stadium.

He actually allowed 12 home runs. So I don't understand how that works, but again, I'm just laying out facts. Maybe it's nothing to worry about, really. Now, I kind of downplayed Garrett Cole going to Yankee Stadium and his vulnerability to the long ball with that move. And, you know, it's turned out to be a real hindrance for him. He's become one of the biggest liabilities for ERA among pitchers drafted early.

So, you know, maybe I'm underestimating the effect here for Carlos Redan. But, you know, when you dig into the numbers, it doesn't look that concerning. Like, maybe he won't have a third straight year with an ERA under three, you know. Okay. But we're talking about the guy who let all made, let all qualifiers. Like, it was this first time ever being a qualifier himself, right? And he led all qualifiers in K-per-9 with 12. He led all qualifiers in FIP.

He led all qualifiers in X-E-R-A. So, you know, FIP and X-A-R-A, they kind of measure different things. And they both had him as the best among qualifiers. So that shows you the upside of Rodan. And, you know, the fact he is such a big bat-misser with that high K-per-9 rate. That kind of makes him less vulnerable to the effects of his environment. If anything, I think it's a slight boost, Scott, for Carlos Rodon's value, just because higher win potential, right?

Going over to the New York Yankees last year, the Giants were 11th and run scored, the Yankees were second in all of baseball in that category. You pointed out the splits. I think that's definitely fair. 1.93 ERA at home last year for Rodon. But I agree. The fact that he is a left-handed pitcher in Yankee Stadium,

I don't know that it's going to be as big of a problem for him, because again, he's not really going to be facing lefties very much who can take advantage of that short porch in right field. And even though he's a fly ball pitcher, Scott, he does a really good job suppressing home runs in his career. Less than one home run per nine, and he's been under 10% home run to fly ball ratio each of the past two years.

That was even with the bouncer ball in 2021. So while he's a fly ball pitcher, he does a really, really good job suppressing home runs. So I think of anything, you know, maybe we see a few more wins out of course. Carlos Rodon. I'm not really worried about the move with the ballpark there, if anything. The big concern for Carlos Rodan.

Health. Health. Yeah, exactly. I mentioned last year was his first time ever as a qualifier. And you remember at this time last off season, we didn't know what to make a Carlos Rodon. And teams didn't either. He spent only that one year in San Francisco because all he got was a two-year deal with an opt-out after the first one. You know, he ended up following up his big breakthrough in 2021 with an even better 2022.

So he was able to exercise that opt out and get the big payday that he was looking for all along here with the Yankees. But, you know, that doesn't negate the injury history he has. 178 innings this past year was a career high. The 31 starts a career high. And so that you have to take more than him pitching. Yankee Stadium. You have to take that into account when you're when you're targeting Carlos Rodan next year. But that was already baked into his ranking, right? The injury risk doesn't change no matter where he's pitching. So I didn't move him at all in my rankings. He's still 13th for me.

But again, that's already accounting for the injury risk because if we're just talking upside, Carlos Rodan has more upside than probably the four guys, at least. least the four guys ahead of him in my rankings, which are Alec Manoa, Shane Bieber, Aaron Nola, and Zach Wheeler. And you could argue he has more upside than like Brandon Woodruff as well. So arguably top five upside here for Rodon, but because of that injury risk, he's out, he's just outside the top 12 for me. I think on a per start basis, Scott, he's as good as they get, right? He's, he's very Shane McClain-esque in that way. Massive strikeout numbers. It's just, you know, can he stay on the field for a full season?

And last year, 178 innings, that was a career high for Carl Swardon. I've got to say, I love the talent, I love the pitcher. I'm happy the Yankees signed him as a Yankees fan. But I am terrified of a six-year contract for Carlos Rodan, who has a history of shoulder troubles. And, you know, we've seen some fluctuation and velocity the past couple of years, too. He's mostly been able to maintain that.

But, yeah, I mean, look, a six-year deal for any pitcher, I'm worried. I'm worried. So hopefully he can finish it out and have a great career here, but yeah, I think there is definitely a fair concern when it comes to the injuries. You already basically answered this question, Scott. I was going to bring up the early ADP, according to NFBC.

55.3 is the cost for Carlos Rodon right now. 13th starting pitcher off the board, so basically right in line with your rankings. However, he is going right around Zach Wheeler and Shane Bieber. Sounds like you have those guys just ahead of him. Yeah.

do. As I mentioned, it's more of a matter of safety than upside, particularly since, you know, I'm probably not going to draft a starting pitcher any earlier than this. So if this is my number one guy, I want it to be somebody who I feel more confident is going to make, is going to get to at least 180 innings, which, by the way, is something Rodon still hasn't done before, since he just got to 178 this past year. So that's, yeah, I, I feel comfortable. I can't see myself moving him up any now that he's going to New York. You say stock may be slightly up because of the supporting cast.

Yeah, maybe. But I don't see much reason to move him up. Yeah, I'm really comfortable with where I have him. I did want to mention, what was it I wanted to mention? What was it you wanted to mention? So, you know, it wasn't just that. Like, if you want to look optimistically here with Carlos Rodan, you know, it wasn't just that he got to that career high innings last year. It's that he sustained it throughout.

Because remember how 2021 happened. He was gangbusters for the first four or five months. And then in September, missed some time. Velocity was down when he got back. And that's why we didn't know going in the last season. What kind of contract is this guy going to get? But the velocity games held, and he sustained it for the full six months. In fact, five of his final eight starts last year, Carlos Rodon had double-digit strikeouts.

So it was rightfully, his stock has never been higher in fantasy or in real life, I guess, than it is right now. But there is still that injury history. Yeah. And if I do wind up taking Carlos Rodan as my SP won in fantasy, which I don't think is a terrible decision, I think it's fine. if you wait until the fourth or fifth round and you just gobble him up, I probably look to pair him with like a Max Fried or an Alec Minoah or a Framber Valdez. Just someone who I know is a little bit safer for the inning. So that's what I would look to do if I do grab Carl Swardan as my SP1.

One of the thing here, Scott, that I wanted to talk about. It's not Carl Swardan related. It is actually New York Mets related. They signed Omar Nervaez, which isn't a huge deal for fantasy to a one-year contract. but more so what does it mean for Francisco Alvarez, who we do have some excitement for, he's one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and obviously being a catcher

that offers upside for fantasy purposes, but they now have four catchers on their 40-man roster, Omar Nervaes, James McCann, Tomas, and Francisco Alvarez. So there's still a whole off-season. I understand they can make a move, they can trade someone, they can dump someone, they'll figure it out.

But as of now, I'm a little worried when it comes to Francisco Alvarez. I think when the Mets want to give a spot to Francisco Alvarez, they will. Omar Narvaez, James McCann, that's not going to stop them. Now, maybe this is a signal that they're not quite ready to rely on him as one of their two catchers to open the air. Him and McCann is kind of what we were thinking with Alvarez splitting his time between catcher and DH. He could still make the opening day roster. as primarily a DH, Alvarez.

Daniel Vogelbach, that's not going to be somebody who blocks him if the Mets really want him in the lineup. But the Mets may still be motivated to continue developing him as a catcher at AAA and not wanting to condemn him to life as primarily a DH in the majors by promoting him so soon. Obviously, we saw him at the end of last year, but there is still time here at the start of 2023 to develop him if that's more the route they want to go.

And maybe the signing is a signal that that is the route they want to go. We'll just have to see how the rest of the offseason plays. I will have to see how spring training goes because they'll probably offer some pretty strong clues as to what they're intending to do with Alvarez once spring gets here. And, you know, you probably, shouldn't be drafting too much before then. Yeah.

Even though you like to, Frank? I know. It's a problem for me. Any sane person should not be drafting now or even in January or probably even February for that matter. Well, let's say, though, it becomes obvious he's not going to make the opening day roster. In two-catcher leagues, you're still drafting, Francisco Alvarez. Sure.

Because it won't be long. As a bench piece, yeah. Yeah. I don't know that it's going to change my ranking too much of him either. Like, I have him ranked, I don't... I think I was looking at your catcher ranks. I think you had him like 16th or 17, something like that. But that would technically be a starting catcher in a two-catcher league where...

Well, yeah, you're not... Yeah. You would have to draft him like that in a two-catcher league is what I'm saying, because, like, look at how we were drafting Adley Rushman last year, same sort of situation. I'm saying that's already a pretty conservative ranking, given Alvarez's upside at that position. So it's more likely I'd move him up because the,

Mets are giving strong indications that he will be on the roster rather than moving down because they're giving indications that he won't be on the roster. And does he have catcher eligibility on CBS's start next season? Yeah, he does. Okay, because I will point out for any early drafters right now over at the NFBC, he's utility only because he actually made more starts as a DH at the end of the season than he did as a catcher. So just keep that in mind.

He's going to need to catch 10 games to earn catcher eligibility in NFBC leagues next season. That is Francisco Alvarez. Again, Omar Narvaea's one-year deal with the Mets, but the big story here Thursday night, Carlos Rodan to the Yankees on a six-year 162 million-dollar deal. And in case you're wondering, I started the podcast with the,

and then there was one referring to Danesby Swanson. He's really the last big free agent left, Scott. Christmas isn't here yet. Basically everyone signed. It's a Christmas miracle. It's great. Merry Christmas to us all. Yeah, baseball fans, fantasy baseball fans.

We'll see where Swanson winds up. Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, all kind of rumor to be in as of now. But once that happens, we'll get another podcast out there for you. For Scotty, I am Frank, thank you all for listening and watching this emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.