Fantasy Baseball Today - Catcher Recap & Early 2023 Rankings! (10/18 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 18, 2022

It's never too early for 2023 rankings! Before we get into it, what happened in the playoffs (1:12)? ... Let's recap the catcher position from this past season, starting with JT Realmuto (5:30). ... Can we trust Daulton Varsho (10:22)? ... Will Smith is so consistent (14:00). ... Are we buying back in on Salvador Perez (16:20)? ... It was a tale of two seasons for Willson Contreras (20:35). ... Alejandro Kirk had a strong season (23:40). ... Could Sean Murphy be traded (26:10)? ... Does anybody want to draft Travis d'Arnaud (28:11)? ... Is William Contreras legit (30:00)? ... Cal Raleigh provides power but not much else (34:50). ... News (39:24): we have an update on Fernando Tatis Jr. ... Let's take a look at Scott's Top-10 catchers for 2023 (46:10). ... Francisco Alvarez and Logan O'Hoppe are big sleepers at the position (50:37). Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Are you ready for 2023 rankings? Because I'm not. Let's talk about catchers.

Welcome in to fantasy baseball today. Frank Sample joined by Scottie Dubbs, Scott White. And today on the show, I already mentioned. We've got a catcher recap from this past season. We'll take a look at the top 10 catchers in Roto Leagues. Maybe talk about where they ranked in head-to-head points as well. And then we will get into Scott's early 20-23 rankings for the catcher position. Top 20 posted on the site right now.

You can go check those out. You can follow along. CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. But alas, Scotty, I would ask how your weekend was, but I have a feeling. might not have gone too well. What's going on, man? Yeah, I assume you're referring to the Braves ousting in the NLDS at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies

wasn't a pretty sight, wasn't a pretty sight at all. And I mean that, you know, in typical, the way you'd mean it when you're talking about a baseball game, like, it was just a buzzsaw, right? Like the games weren't especially close. None of them, even the one the Braves won. It was 3-0. It wasn't that close.

I guess the final score of game one was ultimately 7 to 6 because Matt Olson hit a three-run homer in the ninth. But, you know, didn't feel that close, even if it ended up being a one-run game. And, yeah, the Phillies just played out of their minds. And that's what happens. That's what happens, you know. And look, I got no right to complain

because the Braves just won the World Series last year. So, you know. Sure did. For the next 29 years, we're playing with House Money, basically. I'll be lucky if they win again in my... Like, I'll be coming out ahead if they win one more time. I'll be... Let me phrase this carefully.

I'll be coming out ahead as a fan. Like, let's say championships are distributed evenly among the 30 teams. Like, every team is. run equally well, they draft and develop players equally well, they play equally well, championships are just distributed at random. Your team should only win every 30 years in that scenario. So, you know, by that standard, hopefully I'll get another one before I die, hopefully. But there was no reason to expect it to be this year. And so, you know, the main thing that stinks about it is they lost to the third place team in their own.

division who, you know, never was really sniffing first. And so that's, that hurts a little more. But if you're going to, if you're going to make a playoff system that includes six teams from each league, you have to expect sometimes the six seed's going to move on. At some point, the sixth seed from a league is even going to win the championship. Maybe it'll be the Phillies this year. Who knows? Yeah. And so that's just, that's just part of the, that's just part of the bargain. And that's baseball, Susan, as we like to say. And the Braves, as did the Dodgers, as did the Mets, as did the Cardinals even. They got, that's baseball seasoned.

Yeah, that's true. Look, both teams at advance in the National League were the lower seed, right? The Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies. And we see this time and time against guy. Year after year, it doesn't necessarily matter who has the better team on paper when we get to October. It's almost who's the hottest team, right? and the Phillies offense is just on fire right now. Yeah, I was going to say, it was almost poetic, Scott,

that the Brave season ended with Charlie Morton on the mound because just everything we went through with Charlie Morton all season long, the ups, the downs, the hype going into the season, the excitement drafting in fantasy. But alas, here's where we're at. Look, I have a feeling the Braves are going to be just fine. They've got a very young, exciting core together for at least the next, I don't know, five to seven years.

You never know what's going to happen during that time, but I feel pretty good about them for the foreseeable future. I will say that. As I mentioned, the Padres slayed the Beast. That is the Dodgers. They won that series 3 to 1. So shout out to them.

The NLCS is officially set. The Phillies going up against those Padres. The Astros swept the Mariners, which included a crazy 18-ending game, capped off by a Jeremy Pena solo home run. Obviously, extremely late into that one. and as we record this now, we were set to go live

pretty late, which we did, ultimately, because I thought I was going to be watching the Yankees here on Monday night, but they haven't played. It was a rain delay, and then eventually the game gets postponed, so, alas, you will either see a very excited Frank on Wednesday night or a very

disappointed one, but we'll see what happens. Nestor Cortez on short rest. Anyway, Scott, let's jump into the catcher position. We've got a lot of names that we want to talk about here today. As I mentioned, we'll start off with a recap and take a look at the top 10 this past season in Roto Leagues.

And speaking of which, only one catcher finished inside the top 40 overall in Roto. Of course, this is subject to the CBS Sports 5x5 algorithm, which, as we've kind of figured out, it's different in different places. I'm sure, you know, Yahoo could be different. Razball has their own player rater. Only one catcher finished inside the top 40

overall in Roto. and for perspective that there was only one catcher who finished inside the top 100 all last season in 2021. That was of course Salvador Perez, and we'll get to him in a little bit. But your number one catcher was J.Tiril Mutu, who was awesome, especially in the second half of the year. He averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game.

That was also first among catchers. 276 batting average, 22 homers, 21 steals, 75 runs, 84 RBI, as much as you can be a 5-Kethe. contributor J.C. Real Mutu was exactly that. Only the second 2020 catcher in MLB history. Pudge Rodriguez did it back in 1999. But yeah, Scott, look, from July 1st on, Real Muto was unstoppable. He was a beast. 311 batting average. The ISO was way up. He was crushing the ball. I guess we just have to figure out which version of JT. Real Muto are we going to get heading into

next season. But as long as he's anything. close to what he did this year, I think we'd be perfectly fine with that. Well, yeah. A guy who's for most of, I don't even know the last how long, last five plus years,

he's been kind of the default number one choice at catcher in fantasy. Of course, Salvador Perez was last year, but Rio Muto had a nice run before that, and he was number two going into last year or whatever this past season, I should say.

So for that guy to turn in career best numbers, of course we would take that again. Now, I think, here's the positive spin on it and the negative spin on it. The positive spin is that I don't think he just got lucky in the second half to put up the ridiculous numbers that he did. So in the second half, his average exit velocity was 92.4 miles per hour, which is elite. He's never done anywhere close to that over the full season.

That's how hard J.T. Real Muto was hitting the ball in the second half. Very encouraging, a good indication that he's not experiencing some kind of decline the way catchers his age often do and the way I presumed he was earlier in the year. So that's a good news. the bad news is okay

he's not going to be able to because he hasn't done that over the full season there's no reason to think he's going to be able to do that over a full season so I think you'd just take the full season stats from JT Real Muto okay 2020 season he's clearly the best base stealer at the position

he still gets a lot of volume the power hasn't completely dried up and I think that makes him just a very safe choice as the number one catcher next year. There's a lot of competition for it. So it's saying something that he's back in that number one spot. It's really those stolen bases putting him over.

But I think it's unlikely he's a distant number one. I think it's going to be a tight competition for number one overall production over the course of next season. J. Zerumuto will turn 32 years old in March of next year. before the season starts, but again, no signs of decline. And if we expect more steals league-wide, as we've kind of laid out so far here in the off-season, then I think that almost, at the least,

it assures that Rio Muto can approach 20 steals once again. Because that was a career high. I don't know that we want to project it, but if everyone's running more, then I think ultimately that can help Jets and Rill Muto as well. I will predict them. I'm comfortable projecting a career high in steals for just about everyone.

next year. It's going to be hard to improve by more than the eight that Rio Muto did over his previous high to get to those 21 this past year. But yes, with the environmental changes we're expecting, the rule changes, the limited number of pickoff throws, the kind of improvement we saw in stolen base totals in the miners, I think there's a good chance Real Muto does get to 20 steals again, but other catchers will have more than we're used to seeing from them too. my expectation. The number two catcher this past season in Roto was Dalton Varsho. He finished 69th overall, 2.6 fantasy points per game. That was tied for eighth in head-to-points leagues. Does lose a bit of value because he strikes out quite a bit near 25% of the time. But he hit

235. 27 home runs was tied for the lead at the position. He had 16 steel. So again, that power speed combination is awesome, especially in those roto formats, 70th percentile in barrel rate, 69th percentile in sprint speed. So again, that kind of backs up the power and speed. However, Scott, and I don't want to be a Debbie Downer because I was the low guy on Varsho coming into last this season, and obviously that didn't work out very well. But he does have struggles with splits that I would like to point out, 221 batting average, 553 OPS against lefties. And the experienced, expected numbers are quite bad. 214XBA,

389 X-Lug. I don't know how much stock we should put in that because he just had a really great season and maybe like Randy or Rosarena, we just kind of looked the other way for Dalton Varsho. What do you think about the things I laid out there? Yeah, if you dig really deep on

Varsha's numbers, you see that he has that ability that a player has to have in the current power environment to exceed his power expectations by so much. And that he puts the ball in the air a lot, he pulls it in the air a lot specifically. You look at the spray chart for him,

his home runs, they're just clustered all over, all behind the right field fence. He just lives there when he puts the ball in the air, and that's how he's able to exceed those expectations. And I suspect that's going to continue. I will point out for Varsh, that the steals really did him especially a lot of favors in 5-by-5 scoring.

He and Real Mutual were really the only catcher eligible players who stole bases of any real amount. They're the only ones who contribute in that category, and because stolen bases have been so scarce, so highly valued in Roto leagues, it pushes them up. I agree it makes voice.

Varsho the number two in that format for next year as well. But with him even more so than Real Muto, you see a disparity in points leagues where Real Muto, okay, even the head-to-head points per game, he was the number one catcher this past season. But Varsho has several others ahead of him. Will Smith, Wilson Contreras, Adley Rushman, to name a few. Actually, believe it or not, Salvador Perez had more head-to-head points. per game, barely, than Varsha this past year. Varsha plays a lot, and that helps probably even more in points leagues than it doesn't

five by five. But he tends to sit against right-handers, so even though he's more or less, like this may be the last year we're talking about him as a catcher because he, it seems like he's just transitioning to being an outfielder, which does help his playing time, but not as much as you might think since he tends to sit against lefties, tougher lefties anyway. Yeah, I was going to point out definitely helped out. up by the volume. 592 plate appearances ranked second among catcher eligible players behind only

Sean Murphy. And we'll get to him in just a little bit. But yeah, if you're thinking ahead, Keeper Dynasty Leagues, this could be the final season that Dalton Varsho has catcher eligibility. Third at the catcher position was Will Smith, who finished 95th overall. In Roto, he averaged three fantasy points per game that was tied for second in head-to-head points leagues. He hit 260, 24 homers, 68 runs.

87 RBI, which led the position. And Scott, you look at his 2021, 2021, Will Smith, basically identical. I think you just kind of pencil them in at this point. 255 to 260, mid-20s, homers, 70 runs, 75 plus RBI, obviously hitting in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball, makes a good amount of contact, he walks,

he puts the ball in the air. I just kind of trust who Will Smith is. Maybe he doesn't have another gear, another level of upside that he can get to. But that's fine. I think the player that he is is perfectly fine, and he's going to be adequately ranked for next season. Yeah, I would say so too.

I mean, if it's kind of weird the way he's developed as a fantasy asset, because he's gone from being the exciting pick who could potentially emerge as like the super stud at the position, to now he kind of just seems like the, the safe, kind of boring, reliable guy that you could take at catcher.

You know, you look at guys like Adley Rushman, certainly the two we just talked about, Rio Muto, Dalton Varsho. And there are probably a couple more catchers I can name

to feel like they have more sizzle right now than Will Smith does, which could mean I end up drafting more of him. I don't know. It remains to be seen because I do feel like

Will Smith probably isn't going to get better, but already as he is, he's good enough to contend for the number one spot at the position, especially in points leagues where the stolen bases aren't boosting others value the way they are in five by five scoring. Yep. And for what it's worth, Scott, obviously I completed this draft that I mentioned I was doing. And Will Smith was the second catcher off the board behind only JT. Real Muto. Now, they had almost two rounds of difference in draft value. So, um, yeah, I think that might be common, especially in the Roto format, but, you know,

Will Smith still getting the respect he deserves as the second catcher off the board, at least in this draft. Fourth ranked catcher this past season was Salvador Perez who finished 156 overall in Roto. He averaged 2.6 fantasy points per game, also tied for eighth in head said points leagues, uh, because does not walk very much. Obviously, does strike out quite a bit as well. And he did all of that, finishing as the fourth best catcher in Roto, despite playing 23 less games than Will Smith, 37 less than Dalton Varsho.

It was an up and down season, lots of injuries involved, specifically with the thumb with Salvador Perez. The first half of the year was a complete mess. He went on the IL in May. He came back, re-injured it in June, opted to have surgery, then returned in late July. Now, when he returned on, 57 games played. Salvador Perez hit 297,

12 homers, 42 RBI, 834 OPS, 91.5 mile per hour, average exit velocity. He was basically Salvador Perez. Let's say that he plays 140 games next year because he does DH quite a bit. Based on what he did later on in the season, that's a 29 home run pace, which would probably contend for the lead

at the catcher position. Scottie, are you back in on Salvador Perez? Oh, yeah. Yeah, I mean, I am mad. enough people will feel burned by Salvador Perez from this past year where he was the highest catcher drafted and higher than the highest, more high, drafted higher than the highest drafted catcher is normally drafted. I was pushing for him in round third in every format, so I contributed to people getting burned by Salvador Perez.

I got burned by him in a few leagues myself. But yeah, you look at, you look at what happened after he returned from Thumbus. and the thumb surgery. And it's clear early in the year. Like he was, he spent some time on the I.O.

with the thumb injury, came back, tried playing through it. Like, it was clearly impacting his production. So I think this is one of those cases where it's fair to, to slice and ice the season and,

and find these in points that better make your case. So I did a similar thing that you did to, with Salvador Perez, those numbers after returning from thumb surgery in late July. If you project them over, the 161 games he played in 2021. 161 games that year. It comes out to 34 homers.

It also comes out to 119 RPI. And remember, my case for Salvador Perez, one of the arguments I made for him coming into this season was, okay, yeah, it's a lot to pay for a catcher. But if he comes even two-thirds of the way to his 2021 production, then it'll have been worth it. Well, those numbers, 34 homers, 119 RBI. The homers are a little short of two-thirds of the 48 he hit in 2021,

but the RBR basically exactly what he contributed. So I think overall, post-thumb surgery, Salvador Perez, was still that guy we were hoping to get when we took him in the third round. So I will be happy to get him for much later than that. at this upcoming year. My only retort Scott is, I don't know, as good as Salvador Perez was in 2021, and I still think he's a really productive hitter.

I don't know that I would expect any catcher eligible player to play 161 games. He does DH a lot, so that helps his case. But I think he's also still going to catch a ton of games as well. So just kind of leaves a catcher susceptible to getting banged up here and there and missing games. So, you know, even if you, again, relatively project

140, 145. You're going to get close to 30 home runs if he could stay healthy. I think that's pretty fine. I think he's one of the best catcher eligible players positioned to best to get 140, more than 140, 140, 145 games

if he stays healthy. I don't project 161 games for anyone, really. Yeah. But he'll play virtually every day if he's healthy. All right. Well, let's move on to the number five catcher. That was Wilson Contreras. He averaged three

fantasy points per game that was tied for second in head to head points leagues and it was a tale of two seasons almost the reverse real muto where JTR turned it on from July 1st and Wilson Contreras did the opposite. He basically plummeted after June this past season. So through June, Contreras was batting 283, 13 home runs, crushing the ball, 10% barrel rate, making a lot of contact. July 1st on, Wilson Contreras hit 186, nine homers, average angstic velocity, took a step back, started hitting more ground balls, something that has hurt in the past. He was battling an ankle injury for basically all of September,

and I think even before that, he was playing through this injury, and there were trade rumors, basically all season long. So something that could affect, obviously, any player. Wouldn't surprise me if it affected Contreras as well. Scott, who is the real Wilson-C-C-Turis? This is a full-season numbers or more predictive than partial season numbers situation. I think, because what ultimately became of Wilson Contreras,

and you combined the first half stats with the second half stats, is they ended up being normal Wilson Contreras stats. Yeah. In fact, 243 is what he ended up hitting compared to 237 the year before, 243 the year before that. The OPS is very similar to high 700s to low 800s. Actually, this past year was the highest of the last three years at 815. So it ended up being a typical Wilson-Contrera season, even if it didn't play out in the most conventional way.

Now he hits the free agent market. So that's something we're going to be monitoring in the off-season, obviously. I don't think it's going to change where I rank him too much. Obviously, if he goes to one of the more extreme venues, then we'll have to look at it again. but I feel like he's I feel like he's toward the back end of that high-end catcher tier, that very large high-end catcher tier,

which I would say is, I mean, we'll get into it in a little bit, but it's at least seven-deep, it may be as much as nine-deep. And I'd say Wilson-Contreras belongs near the back-end of that group, just because I don't think there's,

and kind of the way the season played out shows it, I don't think there's much room to improve, on the guy he's been in the past three years. So he doesn't have true number one upside at the position, I don't think. And I think regardless of what format I play in, obviously heads head points, head to head categories, more often than not, you start one catcher in Roto leagues. Normally you start two catchers. I want to get one of these top eight or nine, Scott, as my, you know,

even if it's my lone catcher, that's fine. If I play in a two catcher league, I want one of those guys to be my anchor. So if Wilson Contreras is going to fall towards the back of that group, fine. I'm fine waiting and I'll take whoever falls from that tier. And if it's Wilson Contreras, I'm fine with it. Number six this past season was Alejandro Kirk, who finished 169th overall in Roto. 2.6 fantasy points per game tied for eighth in head-to-head points leagues. He hit 285, 14 home runs, 59 runs, 63 RBI, fantastic plate discipline, 63 walks to 59 strikeouts, just nearly unheard of for a, for really any hitter.

in today's game, but especially a catcher. Great play discipline. He hits the ball really hard. A lot of it on the ground, that's going to hurt Alejandro Kirk. Obviously, you know, he's a bigger boy. You know, he's not going to beat out any infield singles. So it would be nice to see maybe a few more line drives, put the ball in the air a little bit, Scott. But what I really like about him most,

a lot of DH days, you know he's going to be in the lineup. And he was basically batting cleanup. That was the majority of his games this season, his plate appearances, cleanup for the Blue Jays. and ultimately that's just a really valuable position to be in. Yeah, you've got to remember he's only 23 as well. He's going to turn 24 before the end of the offseason here, but very young, very early in his career.

And the stat cast measures for him are so impressive. Going beyond just the ridiculous contact skills that he has, how hard he hits the ball. It's a great foundation of bat skills. here for Alejandro Kirk and he disappointed us in this you know he got so hot in the middle of the season and then ended up having just the two

home runs in the second half and so that that dragged him down quite a bit I was actually surprised to see kind of underwhelming his point per game production obviously that's the format that rewards a lack of strikeouts

play discipline like Alejandro Kirk's the most and he ended up with fewer points per game than then Dalton Varsho, then Salvador Perez. But, you know, that goes to show you how many quality catchers there are too, because I think if we just took Alejandro Kirk's 2022 stats and applied them over the past few years,

like he would still come out as like a top three catcher in the head-to-head points format. But bottom line is a lot of good skills there. I think there's room for improvement. I'd be really excited to draft him as my number, one catcher in either format, but especially points leagues next year. Yeah, I agree with all that. Number seven at the position was Sean Murphy, who averaged 2.5 fantasy points

per game that was tied for 12th in head's head points leagues. More than anything, Sean Murphy was a volume player at the position. 612 played appearances led all catcher eligible players. He also played 148 games, partially because the A's were not very good, so he got some days at D.H. They just needed help any way that they can get it. But I don't want to sell him short. He was good.

249 batting average, 18 homers, 67 runs, 66 RBI. Huge improvement in the strikeout department. Career best, 20% strikeout rate. And I will point this out, Scott. I think there's a chance Sean Murphy could be traded this offseason. And if you look at his career splits, 686 OPS at home in Oakland Coliseum, 817 on the road. I think if we get him out of Oakland,

He could have, could have Will Smith type upside. What do you think about that? I know Oakland's turning into a launching pad. You know this. You know this. You saw it. Only when it's 85 degrees outside. What I like most about Sean Murphy is that over the final two-thirds of the season,

he shaved about 10 percentage points off his strikeout rate, became a really good contact. Or not like Alejandro Kirk looked good, but more of a typical good contact. hit her and hit about $2.80 during that stretch. So I think, and he looked at his minorly track record. He wasn't a guy who struck a lot, struck out a lot in the minors either. I think he showed, I think he showed improvement.

And yeah, I do think he's a trade candidate this offseason with the A's nowhere close to competing and having just, they're bringing Shay Langalears along. I don't think the plan is to make Shay Langalear's a primary DH as he was down the stretch this past year. Yeah. So I would, I'm halfway expecting Sean Murphy

to get traded this off season. And it could do him some good. Yeah. Yeah, I like that idea quite a bit. Number eight at the position was Travis Darno.

He averaged 2.7 fantasy points per game. That was tied for fifth in head to head points league. So very good on a per game basis. He hit 268 with 18 home runs, 61 runs, 60 RBI in just 426 plate appearances.

Very strong season once again for Travis Darno. With that being said, Scott, I can't really figure it out. He doesn't particularly hit the ball that hard. His barrel rate is not impressive. He hits a decent amount of ground balls.

He's turning 34 years old in February. Has been injury prone in the past. He's been good three of the past four years. Top 11 catcher in three of those years. But of all the names we've mentioned so far, he is the least appealing to me. I agree. And I was kind of hedging a minute ago,

whether the high-end catchers end at 7 or end at 9 for this upcoming season, whichever it is, Travis Darno is outside of it. If it's 9, he's my number 10 catcher, basically. So I see him more as a fallback option than as somebody you're really feeling good about drafting as your top catcher. He can end up having another good season. He is a player who I mean head to head points per game

He was ahead of Farshot Salvador Perez Alejandro Kirk I mean he was out a really productive season But he's going to be 34 next year He's got William Contreras breathing down his neck And I think it's more likely The numbers go down than hold steady Certainly more than improve

I don't I don't think better So yeah Travis Darnel I see him more as the fall back option next year. Agreed completely. And let's talk about his teammate, William Contreras, who you mentioned just there, who finished ninth at the position, really the out of nowhere breakout at the catcher position. He averaged 2.6 fantasy points per game. Takes a little bit of a step back in that department because he does strike out quite a bit. But he had 278 with 20 homers in just 97 games

played, 376 played appearances. And among catcher eligible players with at least 350 played appearances. William Contreras's 860 OPS ranked first at the position. His 228 ISO ranked second. That was behind only Cal Raleigh. Hits the ball hard. His bowel rate was very impressive. Also hits the ball on the ground quite a bit

like his brother, Wilson Contreras. The question, Scott, is how much do we trust it? Now, I know, obviously, we do the podcast together all the time. I know you feel about him. I know you like him quite a bit. How much can we trust it, right? It just feels like this came out of nowhere. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I feel like he didn't really rank highly as a prospect, as a catcher or within the Braves organization. Maybe I'm wrong about that. The minor league numbers, pretty unimpressive. The batting average was good, but 759 OPS, 31 homers, and 396 career minor league games. I like the player.

I just don't know how much we trust it. What do you think? I mostly trust it. You're right that he wasn't a particular, highly regarded prospect. He was a name. He had some prospect status, but he never made a major top 100 list.

Shea Langaleers looked like the catcher of the future for the Braves more than William Contreras did. Obviously, Langalear is now with the A's. He went over in the Matt Olson trade. So the Braves showed where they stood with that trade. I don't know that that there was entirely the reason they traded Languilers instead of Contreras, but clearly they felt pretty good about Contraiser. He played a big role for them this year when he wasn't catching.

He was often starting at DH. And I think he's only going to see more playing time next year. Part of the reason why I trust William Contreras is you compare his stat cast page to his brothers, Wilson Contreras. It's uncanny how close they are in everything, barrel rate, average eggs of velocity, hard hit rate, expected batting average, expected slug, launch angle. Like, it's crazy. Like, it's a carbon

copy almost. And they're brothers. So, I mean, I guess if anybody's going to to copy William Contreras, it makes sense to be, or Wilson Contrares, it makes sense that it's his brother. I mean, look, but all but the last three letters

of their first name are the same. So it's like they're, they're twins. almost. William Contreras does strike out a little more. That is one difference between the two, but he's young, and you could definitely see that getting better. So, I mean, just judging by the data,

he looks like somebody who's going to be an impact player at the catcher position. I don't know that he's going to hit 278 again. That's the number in his stat line that I'd be most skeptical of, but in terms of how much power he delivers in just terms of him being all around a good fantasy. catcher. I think that's going to continue for William Contreras.

And if Travis Darnow is taking a step back next year, it's because William Contreras is taking a step forward. And I do have questions about playing time as well. I mean, that was something that affected his value this past season. I remember there would be stretches where he looks great. And then something would happen where Ronald Ocunae would return or Travis Darno would return. And then would just kind of find himself on the outside looking in. And Marcelo Zou Eddie Rosario still both under contract. You know, those things can change. Maybe they get traded away or whatever it might be,

but I would like to have that clarity. And I think we will by the time, you know, we get to February or March. The biggest thing is I think Ronald de Cooney is going to be able to be a full-time right fielder again next year, having had even more time to recover from that torn ACL. You know, there were stretches this year where he basically was stuck at DH. And unless they were going to play William Contreras in the outfield,

they just, the Braves just couldn't play him. except as Darno's backup a catcher. So I think that's going to help it a lot. I think in the long run, they're going to play him over Azuna. It seemed like they were willing to play Ozuna in left field, even though he's a liability there to get Contreras's bat in the lineup. They did that a lot down the stretch.

So I think it's going to be less of an issue for next year. I see a player in William Contreras, who's clearly in a stent. All right. The number 10 catcher, and the last one we'll mention here, was Cal Raleigh, who averaged just 2.3 fantasy points per game in head-to-head points leagues because he strikes out a lot. And he also hits a lot of fly balls, which leads to a low

babbip, and it will lead to a low batting average. He hit just 211, but had 27 home runs, which was tied for the catcher lead. He had 63 RBI. That was pretty impressive as well. But basically, this season's Mike Zanino, low batting average, big power. He's a lot younger than a Mike Zinino, so I think I do trust it more year over year. Very similar to the player we saw in the miners in Cal Raleigh, who did have some prospect status. This is what he was supposed to be, lower batting average, big power. And he came through on that. It's backed up by all the stackass metrics, hits it hard, max EV 94th percentile, barrel rate, 96th percentile. The power is legit, Scott, but it will come with a very low batting average. Yeah, and for as much as he

strikes out for as low as the batting average is going to be. And it's not just the strikeouts. He puts the ball in the air a lot, too. So he's not giving himself a chance to get many hits other than home runs. Cal Rale. And there's a couple of catchers we haven't mentioned yet, and we'll get to them when we go through my early rankings. But Cal Raleigh, I feel like, is kind of the point in the catcher class for me, the

2023 catcher class where it's like, ugh. I really don't want to be in the position where I'm the one taking him. I do have him 13th. So if it comes to that, you know, I'm not saying I wouldn't take Cal Raleigh. But if we're talking to 12 team, one catcher league, then he's the one on the outside looking at for me. And we didn't discuss this beforehand, Scott, but you will see that number 12 in the rankings for next year,

I have in parentheses, huge drop off after this. Number 13, of course, is Cal Rale. So we are simpatico spot on there. Before we hit the break, oh, by the way, where is Adley-Rutchman and MJ Melendez? They are coming a little bit later on. We'll get to them.

Before we get the break, for those watching us live or on-demand, please hit the like button, subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. Drop a comment as well. You know, who's your number one catcher for next year or a catcher sleeper that you like in 2023? And for those listening, please,

if you can, hook us up with a five-star rating and review on Apple or just a five-star rating on Spotify, much appreciated. Let's take a break, and we'll get to some news and notes here on Fantasy Baseball today. The news and notes before we get to those 2023 rankings. I have a note on Fernando Tatis Jr. who underwent a follow-up procedure on his left wrist last week. And of course, we know he had surgery back in March for a fracture in that wrist.

And apparently, there was concern about how that initial repair, quote, would hold up long term, which doesn't sound the best, but it just seems like there's one thing after another when it comes to Fernando Tatis. Of course, he was handed an 80 game suspension in August and then opted to have shoulder surgery in September. So there's lots of moving parts to lay out the timeline.

Wrist surgery before the season started was supposed to return in August, 80 game suspension, once he knew he was suspended, shoulder surgery in September, and then last week had a follow-up on his wrist. So that's the last that we've seen here. And speaking of Tatis, I want to give a shout out to Eric Cross

for pointing this out on Twitter, Scott. The longer the Padres go into the postseason, the less games Tatis will miss at the start of next season. So these games count towards the suspension. We are all Padres fans now, Scott. We are rooting for seven games series all the way through let's go win the world series,

as long as it's not against my Yankees, but I am rooting for the Padres to play as much as they can in this postseason. I know someone who isn't. That's Ellen Adair, but... Oh, that's true. Yeah. Now that I no longer have a rooting interest,

that can be my rooting interest, sure. Just whittle down Tatis's suspension. Oh, no, he made need all that time, all that time at the start of next year just to recover from all these surgeries he's having. So that might not be the only factor. But yeah, I'm not sure I realize that, that the postseason games counted toward the suspension.

So that's good to know. All right. John Means has begun a throwing program. He had Tommy John surgery back in April. And I thought about taking him in this draft that I just finished up. But looking further into it, the pitchers who returned this year from Tommy John surgery, you need about 14 to 15 months.

of recovery time. So that means we're looking at June or July at the earliest for John Means. So maybe he's someone you stash on your IL for the first half of the season, but I wouldn't expect much, honestly, until the second half of the year. Braves GM, Alexandopoulos, said that Mike Soroka

will be without any restrictions come spring training. Soroka has not pitched since 2020 due to multiple Achilles tears and an elbow injury, which he suffered in September. he went in round 29 of that draft that I did and named to remember. That's what like the 450th player drafted. Yeah.

There's a 15 teamer, right? Yeah. So very, very late. I'm good. Like I get into this every once in a while. Like, it irks me how much fantasy baseball analysis is geared toward the 15 team league when so few people play in a 15 team league. It's like, who are you guys talking to?

A very small percentage of people. Each other? Yeah, basically. Yeah. Anyway. No, it's a good point, Scott. And I did make an emphasis this year of, I wanted to focus more on 12 team leagues and shallow leagues.

And that's why if you hear us on the podcast talking about a player who might be 60 or 70% roster and you're probably wondering, why are you even talking about this guy as a waiver wire option, that's why. You know, we want to address the masses. You know, most people listening to this podcast probably play in 10 or 12 team leagues. So occasionally we talk about deeper leagues, and we will do that. But yeah, I think it makes sense to, you know, address your main demographic.

Alex Anthopoulos also said that he would love to have Kenley Jansen back next season. So perhaps we pump the brakes for Ryssel Iglesias, at least until we know where Kenley Jansen is going. They need something to offer DeGrom, so. I need that Kenley Jansen money for that. I was going to say the Mike Sorokin News is relevant because, you know, anyway. You might be right. I'm just building myself up for disappointment now. There is smoke there with Jacob de Grom.

Isaiah Kinear-Flefa has now sat out, or will sit out, two straight games in the playoffs, and you never want to root for someone to lose their job, obviously. but this could help Oswald Parraza get on the field next season. Is he on the postseason roster? Paraza is not on the ALDS roster, but the way that things are trending right now, like,

kinder-Flefa has played questionable defense all season long, but he has made some mistakes. That's what I'll call them so far in this ALDS that have extended innings and added pitches to Garrett Cole and Luis Severino the other night too. And I don't know, I just, I think the, Yankees might be done with it, but we'll see.

If they make it to the ALCS, I have a feeling Oswald Paraza will be on that roster. And last but not least, it sounds like we could have two Japanese pitchers coming over next season. Kudei Senga and Shantaro Fujinami. So two names to remember there. Senga, especially because

his numbers are just completely ridiculous when I looked into them. He is the better of the two. Kudei Senga. S-E-N-G-A is the name to remember there. Scott's early 2020, three catcher rankings. Let's jump in.

We'll group these by five, and we'll talk about whichever ones we haven't talked about yet, obviously the most exciting ones. And the top five, catcher rankings for next year. Drum roll. Number one, you guessed it.

J.T. Real Muto, followed up by Dalton Varsho. These are for Roto Leagues, by the way. I'll highlight any points league's differences at the end. J.T. Real Muto, Dalton Varsho,

Salvador Perez, Adley Ruchman, comes in fourth overall, and then Willo Leodell Smith just behind him. Scott, let's talk about Adley Ruchman, who finished 11th in Roto this year, 2.9 fantasy points per game that was fourth in head-to-pointsleagues. 254 batting average, 13 homers, 70 runs scored in only, I believe it was 113 games played. Played discipline is awesome, 13.8% walk rate, makes a lot of contact, hits a lot of line drives,

and he hits a lot of doubles, Scott. The hope for me is that, those doubles, not all of them, but, you know, five to seven of them turn into home runs. And now we're approaching 20 homers, good batting average. The counting stats are going to help you as well. There's just a ton to like about Adley Rutchman. And I think it makes sense for him to be in your top five. So from July 1st on, Adley Ruchman was about an 850 OPS guy. A lot of it was the walks, but still, I mean, you don't see many catchers capable of an 850 OPS. And he's only, going to get better. One would assume, certainly has the pedigree for it. I kind of feel like he's going to be the helium guy. And in points leagues, because that plate discipline is so good,

I actually have Rushman number two in that format, number four here, but number two for points leagues. It wouldn't be, it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of people end up drafting him second this year, even in the categories league, just because, ah, he's the, he's, it was the impressive rookie who we're now expecting to do even bigger things. And it might be justified. I'm just not in a position. I don't feel like the catcher position, and this is a sharp contrast from this past year,

I don't feel like the catcher position in 2023 is going to be a position to reach at. Just give me whoever the seventh one left there is. Of course, sometimes you might not literally be able to wait until the seventh. But you got an eighth or ninth there to fall back. back on who I think could still be top five at the position. So it's one that I'm going to wait at and whoever ends up being hyped and pushed up because of that,

whether it's Rushman, whether it's Will Smith again, whoever it is, then I'm happy to let them go to somebody else. I do want to point out here, I have Salvador Perez third here for Roto. I have Will Smith Fifth with Rushman in between them. I imagine conventional wisdom's going to have them flipped. But I already made my case for why I still really like Salvador Perez next year. I don't think you'll, I'm not expecting that I'll actually have to draft them third at the position.

I think it's very likely he'll be one of those guys who last to sixth or seventh that I'll end up drafting him a lot. But I'll value him like the third best catcher because I think in terms of home run RBI production, he's still probably going to be or should be projected to be number one at the position next year. Yeah, I get it. I think it's a ceiling versus floor kind of debates.

I think Will Smith is a safer player. As I mentioned, he's consistent. You can kind of pencil in what you're going to get from Will Smith. Salvador Perez, I think he has more upside, more power upside, but getting a little bit older, thumb injury, maybe a little bit more downside. So that's what you need to ask yourself

and you need to weigh. but I do think Salvador Perez versus Will Smith is a pretty close call for next season. So again, your top five. Real Muto, Varsho, Perez, Ruchman, and Will Smith. Let's move on to the next group. Six through 10 includes Alejandro Kirk, Wilson Contreras,

followed by his brother William Contreras, Sean Murphy, and then Travis Darno. We spoke about each of these names, Scott, but it sounds like you want one of these top nine, basically, right? I think you basically said, wherever Travis Darno is ranked, I want the players just ahead of him. Yeah, I think I kind of talked through my strategy

just now on the podcast, live on the air, where I will aim to get one of the top seven through Wilson Contreras, that is. And hopefully it's somebody even better, like Salvador Perez, who burned so many people this past year. but if that doesn't work out if I like

I'm not I'm not so committed to getting one of the top seven that I got to reach for number five you know just to avoid getting left out because if I don't get one of those top seven eight and nine William Contreras and Sean Murphy

are good enough for me I think they still have top five potential at the position I think they'll still more or less hang with the top seven I mean Sean Murphy finished higher than that this year So they're kind of my own personal fallback options.

But I'd rather not wait and be stuck with Travis Darno or what follows him. All right. Let's move on to 11 through 15 cashier rankings for 2023. That includes Tyler Stevenson. Yeah. Remember that guy? He was pretty good. MJ Melendez is number 12, followed by Cal Raleigh, Yosmani Grandal, and Danny Jansen.

All right. So lots to unpack here, Scott. Let's start off with Tyler Stevenson, your number 11 cashier for next year. He averaged 2.7 fantasy points per game, which was tied for fifth in heads head points leagues. He hit 319, 6 homers, 35 RBI, 854 OPS in 50 games played. Obviously dealt with a bunch of injuries this past season. He does not hit the ball hard. Stack cast numbers are very unimpressive, but he has the benefit of playing in Cincinnati, Scott.

And these splits are massive. 395 batting average at home in OPS over. a thousand in Great American Ballpark, 247 batting average, 674 OPS on the road. Guess what? Unless something crazy happens, he will be playing in Cincinnati again next season. Yeah, and I also kind of see the two-year, you know, the fact he repeated his breakout 2021 season and actually improved upon it. Granted, it was over a very small sample because of the time he missed with a couple broken bones this past year. But still, it carried over, he had an offseason to kind of get things back to their normal state. And he still ended up producing like a top catcher.

So I see that as a validation of sorts for Tyler Stevenson. I was curious to look up his splits last year when he did have more playing time. So he was better at home, as you'd expect. But on the road, he was solid to 260 batting average, 750 OPS. I was in 2021. So, yeah, I think Tyler Stevenson, injury risk there clearly. But, you know, if you wanted to rank him ahead of Travis Darneau,

I don't think I'd argue with you too much. Number 12 on this list, Scott, is MJ Melendez, and we had a discussion towards the end of the year where I said I'm going to be higher than you on MJ Melendez, and I would include him in that top 7, 8, 9. I don't think I would mind William Contreras as my first catcher. So I think the way I'll have it ranked is Melendez inside of that top 10, and he's kind of the cutoff for me.

But I really like what I saw Scott. I know the batting average was not great. Actually, it was quite bad. 2.17, but he hit 18 homers, 62 RBI, walks a ton. 12.4% walk rate. It strikes out quite a bit, nearly 25%. Hits the ball really hard,

90.7 mile per hour average exit velocity. And as a left-handed batter, this was so weird to me, Scott. He crushed lefties. 295 batting average, 839 OPS against lefties, and he was dreadful against righties. I looked into his splits in the minor leagues,

and that wasn't the case. He was actually really good against both lefties and righties. So I think there's going to be some regression both ways, right? Like, he'll come down against lefties, but I do think he's going to be a lot better against right-handed pitching.

Maybe he only hits 240, 250, but if he does that with how hard he hits the ball, I think we could get a really, really big season out of MJ Melendez. Yeah, yeah, I could definitely see him taking a step forward. He'll need to, I think, to hang with that previous group of catchers we were discussing. I mean, you just look at the point per game averages,

I would expect the points format to be Melendez's better format, since the batting average doesn't directly hurt you in that format, since he's a guy who has good plate discipline. That seems to be MJ Melendez's better format. He averaged 2.35 this past year in that format. That's compared to 2.65 for Tyler Stevenson, 2.74 for Darno, 2.51 for Sean Murphy, 2.65 for William Contreras. It was clearly a lower level from that group.

Doesn't mean he can't approve. I like that the Royals played him in the outfield so much that it seems like he's going to get a playing time advantage there. Really, it's probably like a lot of catchers are going to play more than we're used to see catchers play moving forward. We've talked about it with Real Muto, Varsho, Salvador Perez. I think Adley Rushman falls in that group. They're just going to play him a ton

because he's going to be kind of the face of the franchise for a franchise that's on the ascent. Will Smith gets more playing time in the past because he can DH now. That's going to be true for both of the contraris's. And MJ Melendez is right in that mix because he plays, the Royals have showed a willingness to play him in Alfield.

Yeah, yeah, I love it. I love that aspect of his game. Just that volume that you could depend on not only playing catcher, but outfield and DH as well for MJ Melendez. I mentioned a few other names on here. Cal Rale at 13. Yasmati Grandal at 14, just completely lost season.

And it looks like we might be coming towards the end here for Yosmani Grandal. Number 15 on this list, Danny Jansen, former top prospect took a couple of years, but he broke out this year. He only played 72 games. He was really, really good in those 72 games, where he hit 260 with 15 home runs and an 855 OPS. that OPS was second among catchers with 240 or more played appearances.

His 256 isolated power was also second best behind only Cal Raleigh. So a lot to like here, walks, makes a lot of contact, puts the ball in the air, really good lineup, good ballpark, good division to hit in. I don't want him as my catcher one, Scott. But if I'm looking to jump back in and be really strong at catcher, I would like to get Danny Jansen as my second catcher next year. Yeah, he's probably the most difficult catcher for me to rank Because

I mean if you just look at the numbers take the numbers of face value He deserves to go a lot higher than this And you basically ran through it already So I'm not going to do it again But he's a guy who Has Burma in the past And so we're putting an awful lot on Really just a big month

A big final month there for Danny Jansen to bring those numbers up to where they ended up being. And then the other issue for Danny Janssen is that, okay, we know the Blue Jays value having Alejandro Kirk's bat in the lineup. That's another catcher for them. And then they have arguably the top remaining catcher prospect, Gabriel Moreno. They've already introduced them in the majors. He's already seen some time in the majors. So they can't keep them in the minors for long.

Yeah. How are they going to make all these guys work? Maybe they make a trade. I mean, Gabriel Moreno would fetch a huge return in the trade, I assume. And so maybe that frees up some of the clutter. Jansen was of the three the one playing catcher specifically most down the stretch with Kirk mostly playing DH and Moreno not playing much at all. But, you know, there's not a lot of wiggle room there in terms of playing time if Morano and Kirk and Janssen all remain with the Blue Jays.

All right. Yeah, I've already seen some reports. I think I saw a headline on an athletic article that the Blue Jays are going to be active this season and could look into some significant trade. So whether or not it involves Gabriel Moreno or maybe even Danny Jansen to free up that spot, I do think that they have a glut of catchers

and they could make that a focus of an off-season move. Your final five, rounding out the top 20 here, 16 through 20. Francisco Alvarez of the Mets, Logan O'Hoppy, with the Angels, Joey Bart with the Giants, Gary Sanchez with the twins and Cabr Ruiz with the Nationals. The two names got here that really just jump off the page. Francisco Alvarez, one of if not the top catcher prospect in the game. He came up late.

He only played five games with the Mets. He did hit his first home run. But in the minors this season as a 20-year-old, he had 260, 27 homers in 885 Ops. And Logan O'Hoppe, while he does not come with the same pedigree, he is still a top-ish prospect. He hit 283, 26 homers, a 416 on base percentage, and a 960 OPS

as a 22-year-old in the minors this season. He also got called up for five games late in the season by the Angels. These are two names that just have massive upside. And again, once we get into that second catcher range, yeah, let's do it. Let's take the shot on the upside. I wasn't really expecting to see either

at the end. and they both came up very late for their respective teams, which neither the Mets nor the Angels have anybody good at catcher. So because now they've already brought them up, it seems, I don't know if I want to go as far as to say likely, but it seems like at least a 50-50 shot, they're going to be their team's opening day catchers next year. And if that's the case,

if that becomes obvious during spring training and they're putting up massive numbers in spring. training, let's say, like these two, Francisco Alvarez and Logan O'Hoppy, they're the ones with the chance to really surge up the rankings here. Beyond, I think, maybe Cal Raleigh, who I have 13th.

They could push for top 12 status, each of these two by the time we entered the meat of draft season. So, definitely want to keep an eye on them. They have the potential to lengthen the catcher position even more.

Alvarez, you know, I said Gabriel Moraine but was arguably the top remaining catcher prospect. I say arguably because Alvarez is right there too. And personally, I think Alvarez has the brighter future at this point. But Logan O'Hoppy, I mean, he made huge strides this year. I know Keith Law of the Athletic named him his prospect of the year. That's how much his stock improved. He got on base a ton and showed improved power.

So he might even be, because Alvarez is kind of young, you know, maybe not ready to handle the defensive pressures of the position. So Logan Hoppe, I haven't ranked below Alvarez here, but he may be even better position to make a fantasy impact right away than Alvarez is. And with Alvarez, look, even if he doesn't start off as the main catcher for the team, because I believe James McCann is still under contract with the New York Mets, Alvarez could be that second catcher slash DH, kind of like Alejandro Kirk is for the Blue Jays,

and you could still earn a ton of playing time that way. So that would not surprise me either for Alvarez. But yeah, both of these guys are very exciting. Alvarez and Logan O'Hoppy, two names to remember for next year. And this is part of the reason why I'm so excited to have the Welshon every Wednesday, Thursday here on the show, because last year, when we had them on around this time,

and we kind of did an Arizona Fall League, recap, he mentioned Logan O'Hoppy as just, you know, someone who stood out, didn't really know much about him, but he crushed it in the NFL, you know, got an opportunity this year, started off in the Phillies organization, traded over to the Angels, but yeah, these are, these are names. These are, that's why you need to watch and listen this time of year and get some of these deeper names to remember for the following season. Changes in head to head points leagues, Adley Rutchman, Scott mentioned some of this already,

but Adley, Will Smith, and Alejandro Kirk, they all move ahead of Dalton Vars. show and Salvador Perez inside of the top five. Carson Kelly and Christian Vasquez also creep inside of the top 20 in head-to-head points leagues. But yes, that'll do it for this episode. And if you want to hear more about the prospects, that's what we're going to do on the next one. When we have the Welshon, we'll just, it's all catcher encompassing once again. Prospects to know for next season. We'll do some dynasty risers and fallers, maybe a sell high, by low situation. But it'll be dynasty prospect related specifically from the the catcher position. If you have a question regarding catchers, let us know. Send it in. Fantasy

Baseball at CBSI.com. That's the letter I, CBSI.com. For Scott, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye.