Fantasy Baseball Today - Chase Burns' Debut, Deep League Waiver Hitters & DID YOU KNOW?? (6/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 25, 2025

Chase Burns looked electric in his debut (2:33). ... Christian Moore launched his first two career home runs (9:15). ... Ranger Suarez vs. Framber Valdez was a pitcher's duel in Houston (12:10). ... N...ews (19:25): Bryce Harper went through his pregame routine on Tuesday. ... Beat others to the waiver wire for Rockies hitters (26:28). ... There are some interesting deep-league hitters emerging on the waiver wire (29:48). ... Frankie Montas was solid in his Mets debut (40:28). ... Did you realize? Let's take a look at some surprising stats (45:40). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:00:40). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow FBT on TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. And first pitch, Rishing. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, welcome into fantasy baseball today on Wednesday, June 25th.
Starting point is 00:00:28 I am Frank Stample, joined by Chris Towers. Today on the show, Chase Ferns made his debut. Lots of interesting deep league waiver wire hitters that are making noise lately. And did you realize have some surprising stats as of late? But you know where we're going to start. Yeah, baby. All right, Chris, take it away. Chase Burns.
Starting point is 00:00:51 What do you think? Chase Burns. I'm going to, I was just going to say, you should get the Flaming Lips song. Do you realize to play for that segment? But we'll talk about that later. Chase Burns looked exactly as expected. Like there is a wide range of possible outcomes that you can get when a rookie makes their debut. And I think Chase Burns just landed right in the middle for someone of his talent and experience level,
Starting point is 00:01:19 which is eight strikeouts, absolutely electric stuff, three runs over five innings, some loud contacts, some if he command, all in all, a really, really positive, electric debut for Chase Burns. He struck out the first five, six strikeouts in the first two innings combined, eight overall. He had six swinging strikes, I believe, on the four seamer on, yeah, 23 sings,
Starting point is 00:01:47 very solid 26% whiff rate. It's about what I would expect for that pitch. 38, 40% whiff rate on the slider. He threw 24 of them, got six whiffs on 15 swings. It looked very, very good. when he, you know, wasn't leaving them belt high to Ben Rice. That one wasn't great. Major league hitters will do that, as it turns out.
Starting point is 00:02:10 And we even saw 10 changeups, only one curveball. That was from what I had understood. He was more likely to throw the curveball than the change up. So that's something to keep an eye moving forward. But, look, average 98.1 miles per hour with the four seamer, a lot of times when guys make their debut, you'll see the velocity spike. and then come back down to Earth, you know, when the adrenaline's not pumping quite as much.
Starting point is 00:02:35 Well, here he sat right where he sat in his AAA starts, his two AAA starts. He was averaging 97.8. So this is legit, top of the scale velocity, good movement profile. Everything looked excellent for Chase Burns. And I think as we move forward and he gets a little more comfortable, he absolutely has the talent to be a must-start fantasy option. Yeah, first time through the order, he was just mowing them down.
Starting point is 00:03:08 They did not know. The Yankees hitters did not know what hit him when Chase Burns first took the mound here. I thought it was interesting, high spin rate on both the fastball and slider here for Chase Burns as well. He threw the change up eight times in this one. And while he didn't get a whiff, he did get three called strikes, which came out to a 38% CSW. So even if he has like a third show me pitch with two double plus pitches
Starting point is 00:03:34 with the fastball and the slider, that might just be enough for Chase Burns. The comp I made is Hunter Green. You know, it's not, the slider I think has a slightly different profile than Hunter Greens, but that's what you're hoping for. It's very good fastball that misses a lot of bats.
Starting point is 00:03:54 There could be some home. issues, especially in that park. And the slider is going to be just a wipeout pitch. And I think Burns has a deeper arsenal. So I'm not saying he's as good or better than Hunter Green, but I think the trajectory could be similar. Now, it's worth noting that it took Hunter Green a little while to figure it out. You know, his first two seasons, a lot of strikeouts, a lot of home runs.
Starting point is 00:04:21 And the ERA was a little disappointing. It wouldn't shock me if Chase Burns was. more like a 380 ERA guy the rest of the season, but I think it's going to be a ton of strikeouts. I think there's going to be really high highs. And on the whole, I think he belongs in your lineup more often than not, I think. Yeah, Chase Burns already up to 86% rostered on CBS. Could still be out there in some shallower 10 team.
Starting point is 00:04:48 If anyone plays in 18 leagues on CBS, then those are probably the only leagues where he's available on Yahoo. 58%. So drop what you're doing and go add Chase Burns on Yahoo if you play on that format because. And it's worth noting because he didn't get called up until Tuesday officially, there are going to be some leagues where he was not eligible to be picked up until later this week. NFBC leagues for sure unless someone drafted Chase Burns in your league, which is pretty unlikely. And if he is someone that you have to add on Fab this week, I think this is the closest we're going to get to a blowout the rest of your budget move.
Starting point is 00:05:32 I'm not saying, you know, if you don't have zero dollar bids, you probably shouldn't quite do that. But I think this is the last aggressive move that you can make on waivers in a mixed league. Obviously, monolees, you've got to save some for the trade deadline. but in any mixed league where he's available, I think this is as aggressive as you need to be on any, on any player remaining. Yeah, I'm scrolling through the top prospects now.
Starting point is 00:06:03 You know, Bubba Chandler will be up at some point, but, you know, the hype has kind of died down a little bit. I think Burns is better. Like, I just think Chase Burns is a better prospect than Bubba Chandler. Yeah. I don't know, look it up and down. I don't really see anyone else that's kind of, you know, going to get called up.
Starting point is 00:06:18 in NFBC leagues. Especially because hitters are much more iffy when it comes to, you know, the chances of making a huge impact right away. I think Samuel Bessio, he is crushing AAA and he can be up later this season. But I still don't think that he'll garner the fab amount that Chase Burns will. So this weekend in NFBC leagues, my guess is $300 plus, $30% of that budgets at least, Chris. I mean, it's probably going to exceed. that to be honest. There just might not be that much money around. That's the only reason I would say,
Starting point is 00:06:52 like maybe the average is more like 20%, but if you've got it, if you've got 400 left, I think you should be putting out a 30% bid on Chase Burns. That's 30% of your original budget, 300. Yeah. Because yeah, it's, I think like 57% of his pitches were in the strike zone. That's probably a little too high. But he generated a chase on 60% of his, swings or 60% of the pitches in out of the strike zone on the slider were swings that's a very good mark that's what you want to see generating chases even on the change up a decent chase rate it would you know very small sample size but you want to see guys going out of the zone that's how that's that's that's where the whiffs come easiest so i think um yeah very very promising debut
Starting point is 00:07:42 all right let's stick with the rookies my player the night going to be a christian more who just had his breakout game. That game just went final not too long ago. And what a way to end it here for Christian Moore. Two for four with a double dong, three RBI. His first home run was a game tying homer in the eighth inning, 108.4 exit velocity. His second homer was a walkoff in the 10th, 107.7. Exit velocity.
Starting point is 00:08:09 Pretty funny moment, too, when he slid into third, thought it was a triple. I thought it was a triple. Ten seconds later, they're telling him, no, dude, you had. a home run. Like, go home. The game is over. You just, you just ended it. So, uh, look, to this point, it hasn't been great. It's, uh, these are the first two home runs of his career. It's a 194 batting average so far, 35% strikeout rate. We knew strikeouts were going to be an issue here. And it takes prospects time, uh, to figure it out. As you mentioned, especially with hitting prospects, it's going to take a little bit of time here. This is just, I think, a reminder of what we can
Starting point is 00:08:45 get maybe down the line from Christian Moore. He's 28%. rastered. I think he's just a deep league name for now. Al only leagues. Maybe add him in 15 team mixed roto leagues and just keep them on the bench for now and see where it goes. But an exciting game, let's see where it goes from here. Yeah. And I think, you know, the, have there been, has this archetype, like, are there a lot of this archetype in baseball anymore? The like slugging, low contact, second baseman. I feel like there was a stretch where there were these, like Dan Ugla and Hunter Dozer. Dan Ugler was the first name that I went to there.
Starting point is 00:09:22 But even like Christian Moore. Brian Dozier. That was the doger I was thinking of. Christian Moore. They ripped this guy's shirt off here. Like he is a freak athlete. Oh yeah. My goodness.
Starting point is 00:09:33 Not to disparage, you know, the Dan Uglas of the world. But hey, Dan Ugla had like the biggest forearms I've ever seen. He was like Popeye. But Christian Moore is like jacked, freak athlete. So I mean,
Starting point is 00:09:45 he is kind of a, weird prototype where he is this great athlete, but it's going to be a high strikeout rate. You know, it should be big power from a middle infield position if it all comes together. That's not a guarantee because when you strike out this much, it might not work out. So. Yeah. Yeah. It's a high variance profile.
Starting point is 00:10:03 But if you're in a categories league, there's a little bit of speed here. There could be a lot of pop. It's a profile worth chasing and, you know, stashing for now. but now we got a little bit of a proof of concept of what it can look like for Christian Moore. Yeah, so a nice day overall for the rookies and two that were just drafted last year. So how about that? Making noise already here in their second, or I guess for Burns, this is his first professional season. So how about that?
Starting point is 00:10:36 Before we get into the news and notes, just want to run through a pitcher's duel that we had out in Houston. It's time to do, do, do, do, do. Oh yeah. So we had Ranger Suarez up against Framber Valdez here. And Suarez, I mean, just continues to dominate seven and two-thirds. Innings here. One run, seven strikeouts. Only nine wists on 101 pitches, but doing an excellent. That's pretty normal for him. Excellent job limiting hard contact here.
Starting point is 00:11:05 82.2. Average exit velocity against. He allowed seven runs in his first start back on May 4th. He has eight straight quality starts since. including four in a row of seven plus innings. So has just been money. 208, ERA, 103 whip, tons of ground balls here for Ranger. Suarez, who I believe is in a contract here, as is for Amber Valdez, seven shutout innings on the other side,
Starting point is 00:11:31 four hits, four walks, three strikeouts. Honestly, not his best performance, but he gutted through here to throw seven shut out. He only had three whiffs. He allowed 13 hard hits in this one. Didn't really have his secondary pitches working, but the sinker, you know, was reliable, was solid here for Valdez. And he's now allowed three earn runs or fewer in nine straight outings there for Valdez.
Starting point is 00:11:55 Chris, anything to add on him and Ranger Suarez? Yeah, I mean, with Valdez, I think we've said everything there is to be said about Suarez. And he's just a must-star pitcher as long as this lasts. You know, he's had trouble staying healthy in the past. but I see no reason to expect it to fall apart anytime soon. Valdez, you know, the nice thing about this profile, and it's also true of Max Fried, and it's been true and hopefully is true again of Sandy Alcantra,
Starting point is 00:12:26 these guys, what makes them so special is even when it's not working super well for them, like even if they're not commanding well, even if they're not getting strikeouts especially, they have the ability to get through lineups, they've got more than one pitch that they can get batters out with. They have more than one way to get batters out with. Ranger Suarez is kind of doing the same thing right now. And that's a really good way.
Starting point is 00:12:54 Like that's how you get through adversity is you don't have your best. You don't have your curveball. Okay, let's throw a bunch of sinkers and, you know, pound the bottom of the zone and generate weak contact. And let's just get through it. And sometimes you can get through it seven shutout innings. And that's always really nice to see when it comes from a pitcher who we know has more ways of getting it done. When it's like James and Tyone doing it, then it's like, all right, nice start. We'll move on.
Starting point is 00:13:23 But when it's Framber Foltez, you know the next time out could be nine strikeouts and seven innings. And just looking at where we rank Ranger Suarez rest of season, I see you have him at SP 31. Scott has him at 32. I haven't met 37 but haven't updated the rankings yet this week and he's someone that should continue to rise. I think I'm probably going to get him inside of my top 30. Just looking at it, like Flaherty should, you know, move down a little bit. He's been struggling again lately.
Starting point is 00:13:54 I think you'd rather have him than Flaherty. Like, Ranger Suarez versus Povetta is an interesting conversation. I mean, Povettas come back to life here in June as well. But, you know, Andrew Abbott or Ranger Suarez, you know, those two, right around the top 30. Yeah. Yeah. So I think even like Shoday Mnaga,
Starting point is 00:14:13 I think they're very similar pitchers. The way they go about it is a little different, but it's not going to be elite strikeouts, but it's going to be very good control. It's going to be, you know, I think right now, at least when he's healthy, I do expect Ranger Suarez to pitch deeper into games than Shodiananaga.
Starting point is 00:14:31 So that's an interesting one. Even Ranger Swarres versus Christopher Sanchez, I don't think it's a slam dunk. If you told me they were both going to make their, you know, what is it, final 15 starts? I think my expectations for them aren't going to be that different. I, and you know what,
Starting point is 00:14:48 honestly, the whip is probably going to be better from Rangers, Juarez because, you know, Sanchez gets in trouble with walks and, and giving up too many hits. So, yeah, the whip is,
Starting point is 00:14:58 I would say the whip is going to be higher for Sanchez, but I think the strikeouts will also be higher for Christopher Sanchez. So it's a good conversation. Yeah, I think that 25 to 30 range is probably the right place for Rangers for as for as for as point. Before we get into the news and notes, just a reminder to subscribe to the FBT newsletter.
Starting point is 00:15:15 If you haven't already, if you're watching on YouTube, scan that QR code that will take you right to the website where you could sign up for free and big thanks to those watching us live and sticking with us throughout the season. We're gonna be here all season long so I know other things. We've got about 90 episodes left before the end of the season, right? There, off the top of my head, I have no idea,
Starting point is 00:15:34 But that sounds right. It's probably like 70. 72. But there is a lot of baseball still to come. And I know other things are popping up. And football, people are getting excited about and the NBA draft and all that stuff.
Starting point is 00:15:46 But I would recommend stick with it. You know, throughout the course of the season. We did. I think we can say we hit the midpoint today. I believe the Red Sox, Angels, and one other team played their 81st game today. Sounds right. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:16:02 We're halfway there. Halfway there. And you know what? I know it sounds cliche and people might not want to hear it. There's still so much that can change too. I remember Corby and Carroll at this time last year, flipped his season on a dime there. So crazy things can still happen in the second half of the season. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this.
Starting point is 00:16:22 Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Let's run through the news and notes. Bryce Harper did his full pregame routine on Tuesday, though the team remains vague on a timeline. They haven't ruled out a return this weekend, but next week sounds. more realistic for Bryce Harper. You know what, at this point, with big name players, just take your time, we don't want you to rush back, get completely healthy, come back when you're ready,
Starting point is 00:16:45 let's not have any setbacks. And the same thing could be said for Yordon Alvarez, who hit off a T Sunday and then did so again on Tuesday, his first time swinging a bat since he was diagnosed with that fracture in his hand, and let's see how his hand responds over the next few days. Zach Netto left Tuesday night's game with, I wrote here,
Starting point is 00:17:04 apparent injury, but now it has been confirmed that he left due to a jammed right shoulder. And Chris, that's a little scary because that's the same shoulder he had surgery on. Yeah, he was sliding into second on a stolen base attempt, jammed it, tried to play through it. I think his first throw from shortstop after the injury, he sailed it way over the first basement's head and had to leave. He's been so good too. He's been awesome. Yeah, I mean, fully backing up what he did last year. If anything, I think the underlying stats have been even better this season. So yeah, you know, looks like he might be a legit star if this shoulder injury doesn't derail him.
Starting point is 00:17:43 So that's one to keep an eye on. Yeah. He was hitting 278. This is Zach Netto we're talking about 278 with 12 homers, 13 steals, 815 OPS in 61 games. So in some ways, he was on pace for a better season. Maybe the steals weren't as good as last year. But, you know, I think he was, you know, on pace for. more than 25, like closer to 30-30.
Starting point is 00:18:07 So great starts of the season. Let's hope Zach Netto is all right. Eugenio Suarez was out Tuesday and is expected to undergo an MRI later this week. He's dealing with a ton of swelling after getting hit by a pitch on his right hand. And to remember, Corbyn Carroll, X-rays were initially negative. It seemed like three weeks worth of x-rays were negative for Yordon Alvarez before an MRI showed the fracture there. So this is, we're not out of the woods yet. Hopefully everything comes back fine in the next couple of days.
Starting point is 00:18:39 But if you're in a deeper league, it might be worth adding Jordan Lawler, just in case. Because he's played third base. Josh Naylor still got this shoulder injury. It doesn't sound super serious. But there could be a path for Jordan Lawler. Yeah. I know that he's been out the past couple days with a sore hamstring at AAA. but they haven't put them on the IL, I don't think it's that bad.
Starting point is 00:19:06 So 34% roster for Jordan Lawler, that's, yeah, pretty sneaky call there if Suarez has to go on the IL. Josh Naylor was originally in the lineup and then was scratched with that tweak to his right shoulder, which he suffered on Monday night. Jordan Westberg has missed three straight with a sprained left index finger, but all indications are that he'll return to the lineup on Wednesday. Bad news for Sean Mania as he'll be shut down two to three. days after getting a cortisone shot to combat a loose body in his left elbow. So he hasn't made his season debut yet because mostly because of an oblique injury now dealing with an elbow
Starting point is 00:19:46 thing. So wasn't there someone who had a similar situation had a cortisone shot? And then it ended up being fine. It actually did. I can't remember someone a couple months, a couple weeks ago, but it's not worth. I can't think of it off the top of my head, but. But it's just, There was someone who had a similar situation where they were shut down very briefly with a quarterstone shot, and it was like, oh, this is concerning. And then it ended up being okay. So that's hopefully, hopefully not super serious, but obviously concerning. Yeah. And I thought about this a little bit more recently, too.
Starting point is 00:20:22 I wonder if, you know, overall offense is up a little bit. The season pitching is down. I think part of it might just be, we've had so many pitching injuries that we've, we've, just have so many replacement pitchers on the mound, you know, guys that shouldn't be pitching in spots. And it's, you know, just think about the names that we lost. It's, you know, Garrick Cole and Corbyn Burns and all the doctors guys are hurt. You know, it's just, the list goes on and on. We, you know, frankly, we have pitchers on Major League Mounds who right now probably should not be on Major League Mounds. So I think that has contributed some to
Starting point is 00:20:53 offense being up here. Another hit at catcher as K. Ruiz went on the aisle with a head contusion, and he was hit by a foul ball in the dug. out on Monday night. Riley Adams is set to take over in his place. I've had him twice in the past week. That's wild. Yeah. Who? Hunter Biggie. Oh, yeah. Yeah, that was... That one was really scary, yeah. Some good catcher news as Shay Langalears will begin a minor league rehab
Starting point is 00:21:18 assignment at AAA on Wednesday. He's been out since June 6th with a left oblique strain. And frankly, this is kind of fast to be returning from an oblique strain. So perhaps it, you know, wasn't that bad of an injury. Speaking of rehab, Tyler O'Neill had his, Minor League Rehab assignment moved up to AA on Tuesday, and he's 45% rostered, a name to stash in five outfielder leagues if you need some help with power. Dylan Cruz is accompanying the Nationals on their West Coast trip,
Starting point is 00:21:46 which runs through June 29th. He's working his way back from an oblique injury, and is currently running at 85 to 90%, but he's yet to take full swings, however. So even though he's on this road trip, I don't know that he's that close to returning, it kind of feels like maybe early to mid-July. It could be after the All-Star break with Dylan Cruz.
Starting point is 00:22:08 The Cubs option, Ben Brown to AAA after his latest blow-up on Monday. That means Cade Horton should stick around even after Show to Imanaga returns later this week. Max Meyer is scheduled to undergo season ending laboral repair surgery on his left hip on Friday. The recovery timeline is roughly six to eight months. So hopefully he is ready for next season. I yeah someone in the in the chat pointed out it was corbin burns who had the uh cortisone shot and then came back and pitched really well yeah you're right yeah so i take that back don't don't want to point to that one as a uh as a positive example because he had elbow
Starting point is 00:22:48 surgery very shortly after that yeah and speaking of elbow surgery cody bradford will undergo season ending surgery to repair the ucl in his left elbow we did get one other prospect update Giants first base prospect, Bryce Eldridge, will miss three to four weeks with a right hamstring strain. So does delay his process a little bit. Maybe he's a late season September call up. Might be more likely that Eldridge is battling for a spot on the opening day roster for next year with the Giants instead of anything this season. Let's get into Waverwire hitters.
Starting point is 00:23:21 I mentioned at the top. A lot of interesting deep league names right now. So this is your opportunity to beat the Waverwire for Rockies hitters next. week because they have six home games on the schedule in Corse Field. I believe three of those are against White Sox pitching so we could just get some huge blow-up games in Corse Field next week. Three names. Like five, six runs. Look, you know what, the Rockies are playing a little bit better recently?
Starting point is 00:23:47 They had seven tonight, right? They're scoring some runs. Yes, they did. And three names in particular that stand out. Jordan Beck, three for five with a double two runs at two RBI. Over his last 18 games, he's hitting 315 with two hundred homers, two steals during that time. Michael Tolia since coming back in eight games, hitting 303.
Starting point is 00:24:06 Three homers, one steal, and OPS over a thousand. And Tyler Freeman, who came over in the Nolan Jones trade before the season, he's on fire right now. Two for five with two runs and his ninth stolen base. So far in June, he's hitting 400, one homer, one triple, five doubles, 13 runs, six steals, and a 1041 OPS. He's hitting the ball hard, expected stats. actually look pretty good here. Chris, can I interest you in any of Tyler Freeman, Michael Tolia and Jordan Beck?
Starting point is 00:24:36 Well, you know I'm interested in Michael Tolia. That's the guy. Never, never wrong just early. No, it's, look, he hits the ball really hard. He's a decent athlete. He's always going to strike out too much. And batting average is probably going to be a problem for him. But he's got six extra base hits in eight games since coming back from AAA. We know he has pop. He was on a 30 home run pace, a 30 plus. us home run pace from June 1st on last season. There's some upside there. I'd argue just as much upside as with Jordan Beck.
Starting point is 00:25:09 And both of them are, yeah, I think pretty decent players to stream, I guess. We don't usually talk about streaming hitters, but I think they're both perfectly fine targets for next year. Tyler Freeman's interesting just because he's always made a lot of contact, but he's taking that to an even more extreme level this season, cutting the strikeout rate to 7.6%, 7.3% after today. And like you said, the quality of contact is actually for the first time ever really good. 91 mile per hour average exit velocity for the season. 44% hard hit rate.
Starting point is 00:25:44 Both of those are way above last year. And he's an aggressive, he's an enthusiastic base runner. He has nine steals on 12 attempts. Not a great success rate, but hey, we'll take it. You don't generally lose a lot for a. cot stealing. So yeah, that's, that's an interesting, I think more like a 15 team only type of play. But Tyler Freeman, a name to have on your on your roster there. Yeah, yeah, he's definitely of the three, you know, the, the more deeper league one there. But in 12 team roto leagues,
Starting point is 00:26:18 I can see it with either Beck or Tolia. If you just want to ride the hot hand right now, kind of feels crazy that we're talking about Rocky's hitters and riding the hot hand. But you know what? They're looking a little bit better. They're scoring. some runs. They actually had a winning week last week. I think they had like four and three last week. And Jordan Beck overall hitting 269, 10 homers, nine steals, 809 OPS this year.
Starting point is 00:26:39 So he's, you know, quietly been pretty good. Perhaps another aim to look at if you lost Corby Carroll just yesterday. What about Ernie Clement? He has also been raking for the Blue Jays. Two for four with a double, a walk, a steel and three runs scored.
Starting point is 00:26:55 In his last 23 games, he's eating 419 with three homers, one steal, just a 5% strikeout rate, an OPS of 1050 here for Ernie Clement. 33% rostered. Chris, what size leagues, if any, would you be looking to add in Ernie Clement? Yeah, he's a weird player because it kind of feels like, you know, I always get the, the, Alec Berluson. Like he's he's kind of like Alec Berlison in that
Starting point is 00:27:27 the quality of contact isn't great, but he makes a lot of contact. And the whole profile feels like it would be better if he was like just a little bit better of a base dealer.
Starting point is 00:27:42 He had 12 last season. It's like if he could be like an 18 to 20 steel guy, I think the whole thing would look a lot better. But Clement, the, he makes a ton of contact like you said. He's got to, a really pull-oriented swing, which, you know, helps him get the most out of his mediocre
Starting point is 00:27:58 quality of contact. I think he's an interesting option in, like, 12-team roado leagues where you've got the, you know, the larger rosters. I think Ernie Clement can be okay there. Yeah, I would agree with that. I picked him up for our NFBC team this past weekend. He has first, second, third, and shortstop eligibility. So that's super helpful, yeah. Being able to plug him, in at any of those corner, middle, wherever you need help, and especially on the NFBC where you have the Monday and Friday
Starting point is 00:28:31 lineup. So, you know, if anybody gets hurt in your lineup, basically, outside of an outfielder, you know, you have a replacement there with Ernie Clement. So yeah, I think 12-team Roto League does make sense there if you were looking for some versatility. What about Lane Thomas had himself a big game, two-for-four
Starting point is 00:28:48 with his second home run at 3 RBI, showing some signs since returning from injury. 13 games, 237 batting average, two homers, two seals, a 736 OPS, has started 10 of 13 since returning. 27% rostered. I don't know that I'm ready to act on this one yet, Chris, but it's kind of a, let's watch because we know that Lane Thomas can get hot.
Starting point is 00:29:12 We've seen that in the past. Yeah, so it's how, you started 10 in the last 13, you said? 10 of 13 since being activated, yep. All right, I wonder they seem to have played a lot of lefties, lately. And Thomas has been more of a lefty starter, left-handed pitcher starter for them. Not saying he's a pure platoon,
Starting point is 00:29:33 but it does look like there's been like six lefties in their past 13 or 14 games. So that is something to note about it. But, God, he's been so bad for so long. I don't have a ton of interest in Lane Thomas myself now. All right, and some deeper middle infielders here. Nick Gonzalez stayed hot, one for four with his third home run, 19 games since returning.
Starting point is 00:30:05 He is betting 316 with two homers, two triples, three doubles, and an 833 OPS. Joey Ortiz looks like he's heating up last 16 games, 357, two home runs, nine RBI and two steals. Caleb Durbin, the same. This actually has been going on since the middle of May. last 31 games for Durbin, 287, three homers, 21 runs, 16 RBI, five steals, and an OPS near 800. Nolan Gorman might be coming alive, back-to-back games with a homer.
Starting point is 00:30:35 He has five home runs in June, and we'll get an opportunity here to play more with Yvonne Herrera-Hurt. So I think this is purely deeper league stuff here, Chris, but do any of these names stand out to you? Nick Gonzalez, Joey Ortiz, Caleb Durbin, and Nolan Gorbin. Yeah, let me find this piece. I think it was from Brewerfanatic.com by Matthew Trueblood. And he talked about Caleb Durbin's swing speed being up lately, which has coincided with him hitting much better. He's never going to be, I think, much of a power hitter. But swing speed is important.
Starting point is 00:31:16 It's not everything. But swinging harder while maintaining your ability to make contact. is always going to be, I think, an important skill, and he seems to be showing that. So that's interesting for Caleb Durbin, who does have some speed, has a good approach at the plate. It's just, can he hit for enough power,
Starting point is 00:31:37 which there's kind of like four guys on the Brewers roster that you can say that about. They've had success with Bryce Terang and South Freelich, and maybe Caleb Durbin's the next one. So I think he's probably the most interesting of this group. I do think Nick Gonzalez is also pretty interesting. I don't have much hope for Joey Ortiz.
Starting point is 00:31:59 I think this is probably just a hot streak. And probably the same with Gorman, I think. He's certainly talented. Strikeouts have just been prohibitive for him. And there's been a little bit of improvement there, but it's still pretty bad. If he played half his games, of course, field like Michael Toglioa does, maybe I'd be more interested.
Starting point is 00:32:22 Deeper two-catcher leagues. Gary Sanchez, right? In what year is it? 2025. We're talking about Gary Sanchez. One for three with his third home run. Still hitting the ball very hard, but lots of ground balls. I don't think there's much here, but Adley Ruchman is out to the All-Star break.
Starting point is 00:32:37 And so Gary Sanchez is probably going to play almost every day here for the Orioles. So in some of those 15-team two-catcher leagues, if you're desperate, Gary Sanchez is a name. And two other names in shallower leagues. don't think you need to go out and re-ad these guys yet, but let's just watch to see if they get hot. Lars Neupar, Homer again, he has three home runs in his past seven games after being ice cold for basically a month before that. And Mason Wynn, who, you know, we talked about last night,
Starting point is 00:33:10 used to like him quite a bit. He, you know, was pretty cold. Previous 14 games before Tuesday, he went 16, was batting 169, which is zero homers and a four. 443 OPS, but had a nice game here. It's just his profile is so weird, Chris. Like, you and I expected Mason win to steal a bunch more bases this year. He has four steals, five caught stealing.
Starting point is 00:33:34 He's on pace for eight stolen bases. So, you know, if he was on pace for 25, this profile would look a lot more interesting. I give him this. He is trying. He's got nine attempts in 68 games. that give him 150 games and he would attempt 20. He only attempted 16 last year.
Starting point is 00:33:57 So I guess he's been a little more aggressive, but he's just been bad. Four out of five this season, 11 out of 16 last season. Those are really bad marks in the modern baseball era. He was so good in the minors in terms of success rate. And he's a 80th percentile sprint speed guy. He's a pretty fast base runner,
Starting point is 00:34:16 but he just, he's really struggled. I don't know if he's just not reading pitchers while. He doesn't get good jumps. It's so frustrating too. Could just be bad luck. That is stolen base success rate is an incredibly noisy stat that has very little predictive value from one month to the next,
Starting point is 00:34:34 one year to the next, whatever. But he has been a very big disappointment as a base runner so far. And that's, I think, holding the whole profile back. It's so frustrating when you think about just these kind of lumber. corner infield types that are just savvy baseball players and base runners like goldschmidt has been able to just steal bases throughout the course of his crew still stealing bases this year you even Kyle Tucker's top 10 in baseball and steals and he's yeah 27th percent on sprint speed Freddie Freeman I mean to this day I always said when he runs it looks like it hurts you know
Starting point is 00:35:13 like he's he's not a fast guy by any means and what he had a you know near 20 or 20 steel season. He had a 20 steel season. I mean, Kyle Tucker is 29 for his last 30, going back to the start of last season. And he is not fast. He's just really good at base running in a way that Mason win isn't yet.
Starting point is 00:35:33 And that's, it's holding his whole profile back. I think until he figures it out and I think he can be a 25 stolen base guy, but until he shows that ability, it's harder to buy in. All right. Let's take our final break. we return, we'll do a little waiver wire pitcher talk, and did you realize? We'll do all that
Starting point is 00:35:54 right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Let's take a look at Waverwire pitchers from Tuesday's action and mostly deep league names here as well. Freddie Montas, solid in his meds debut against the Braves, five shutout innings, three hits, three walks, five strikeouts. And frankly, Chris, I am stunned based on how his rehab assignment went. He was getting crushed. Maybe he just wanted to be in the big leagues. You know what I mean? It just, kind of clicked and he was better here in his Mets debut. Ryan Nelson pitched well at the White Sox five innings
Starting point is 00:36:25 one hit, one run, seven strikeouts. There are some pitchers that I just don't understand and Ryan Nelson is one of them. Since entering the rotation on May 20th he has a 262 ERA and a 0.93 whip. I just don't really get it.
Starting point is 00:36:40 Somebody named Jacob Alatz took a no hitter into the seventh inning. He pitches for the Rangers by the way. He was at the Orioles six plus with one hit two runs, four strikeouts, 11 whiffs on 88 pitches, and he's 29 years old, bad numbers in the minors, but if you look at his arsenal this season, it's kind of interesting. He gets whiffs on all three of his main pitches, so I don't know, someone to maybe watch there, Jacob Lats, and Eric Lauer, who hasn't been fantasy relevant since 2022 with the Brewers,
Starting point is 00:37:14 is actually pitching well for the Blue Jays right now, five and a third, one run with five strikeouts had 12 whiffs on 86 pitches went to the kbO last season that's usually you know people go there and they reinvent themselves and they have a monster season eric lauer went to the kboh and was bad he was worse than he was in the majors and now he came back and he's pitching well so another one that i can't explain chris do you have any interest in some of these deep league names eric lauer jacob lats ryan nelson frankie montaz yeah i think there are interesting things going on with all of these guys. I would say Ryan Nelson,
Starting point is 00:37:52 I just don't have a lot of interest in. The fastball was really good in this one. 11 whiffs with it. He throws it so much. Yeah, he spams it. And it was only like an 18% whiff rate pitch before this start. I know he started to show some signs in the second half last season. I know Scott was pretty big on Ryan Nelson when that was happening.
Starting point is 00:38:14 I don't really believe in the Arsenal. It's a pretty good fastball, but by no means an elite one. And he throws it 60% of the time. It just doesn't feel super sustainable to me. But, you know, if you want to stream him for a two-star week next week and a points league, that's probably fine. He is, is he RP eligible? Ryan Nelson.
Starting point is 00:38:37 That is a good question. You was pitching out of the bullpen this year before this, right? I just don't know if he made 10 appearances. So he is, oh, yeah, he is RP eligible. Okay, there you go. So that, especially in a points league, I think that's fine. But I don't have a lot of interest in chasing it. I don't have a lot of interest in chasing Frankie Montas, who threw a lot of sinkers,
Starting point is 00:39:00 threw a lot of cutters, more cutters than in any, through a higher rate of cutters than in any start last year. I don't, I'm wondering what this change up splitter thing was because Frankie Montas has always been a splitter guy. and in this one he apparently didn't throw any splitters. They were all change-ups, but they had the same velocity and very similar spin rate as the splitter. So I don't know, but either way, only eight.
Starting point is 00:39:30 They change it now. I'm looking. Okay, yeah. Only a 10% splitter rate is not what we typically want to see from Frankie Montas. So I don't really think that's worth chasing. Lauer, I can't figure out. I guess he is throwing a little harder than the last time we saw him. He's had some good results lately.
Starting point is 00:39:50 I don't really buy it. So I think Lats is probably the most interesting of them. I will admit, I just don't know a lot about him. Same. So thinking that he's interesting is mostly just looking at what he's done this season, which is mostly, like you said, a three-pitch arsenal, but he's getting pretty good results on the whole thing,
Starting point is 00:40:13 at least a 26% whiff rate on the four seamer, 47% with the changeup, which is really important. 4A lefty, 33% with the slider's pretty good. I don't know. There might be something here. We haven't really, he's pitched in the majors before, mostly as a reliever, and it hasn't been like overwhelmingly impressive. So I'm not saying Jacob Lats needs to be added in all leagues, but we're all in some leagues where you got to just take a flyer and see if someone who's showing some interesting skills can can build on that. So I'll throw both Lauer and Lats in there where it's just kind of a in a 15 team league.
Starting point is 00:40:58 Let's see. I don't think it's going to be in either case a must roster player in any 12 team leagues. But it's they're showing some interesting signs. Did you realize? Let's take a look at some surprising stats. and first up, Kerry Carpenter hit his 14th home run, but he had that three homer game back on June 2nd. In 17 games after that, he hit 122 with zero homers,
Starting point is 00:41:27 29% strikeout rate, and a 341 OPS. So, Chris, I did not realize how bad Carrie Carpenter had been recently. Did you? Yes, I had, but mostly because someone pointed it out to me on social media today, actually. his quality of contact is, well, his expected Wob,
Starting point is 00:41:48 I guess, is worse than last season now. Early in the season, it was really, really good, but he's been very cold. A 270X Wobo over the past 100 plate appearances
Starting point is 00:41:58 is very poor. And his plate discipline has been, I don't remember him chasing nearly as much as he has been. He's down up to a 36% chase rate. And like, he makes a decent amount. of contact when he swings. It's not a huge amount, but it's not terrible. But we're kind of,
Starting point is 00:42:18 I think, a little bit seeing something similar with Kerry Carpenter that we're seeing with Michael Harris and Yiner Diaz, where they have good quality of contact skills. They have good contact skills. Like when they swing, they tend to make contact. The problem is I think we're seeing them swing at the wrong pitches. Carrie Carpenter is down to a 2.6% walk rate. That is, I think, lower than Michael Harris actually, which is there aren't a lot of players lower than Michael Harris. So yeah, that is, he just seems like his approach is kind of off right now. And okay, it is lower than Michael Harris. I wanted to check that.
Starting point is 00:43:01 And that's, I think, mildly concerning for Carrie Carpenter. So, yeah, that's not great. I am a little surprised that he's still 86% rostered on CBS because, So many points leagues, yeah. That would mean he is rostered in some points leagues this season, and as you mentioned, he's not walking. He's been cold. He is bad against lefties.
Starting point is 00:43:26 He's seven for 37 this season, 189 batting average. So don't think he plays against lefties often. He doesn't deserve to. Yeah, no, that is surprising that he's that rostered in CBS leagues. So I don't, yeah, I don't think he really, in three outfield head-to-head points leagues. I don't really think Kerry Carpenter needs. to be rostered in those. I agree.
Starting point is 00:43:46 Let's talk about George Springer who had another big game, three for five with his 11th home run, three runs and four RBI. But another one where I didn't realize, over the past 35 games before this one, George Springer was hitting just 200 with a 674 OPS. Still came with five homers,
Starting point is 00:44:06 still came with a 15% barrel rate, plate discipline is still great, expected numbers are still awesome. I was just surprised Chris, because it felt like Springer is just having this great resurgence season. But yeah, I don't know, 35 games of hitting 200. That's kind of bad. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:22 So this is one where I referenced these like rolling ex-Woba numbers that baseball Savant has. And this is one where it's very, you can make whatever story out of it that you want. Because if you look at the last 100 plays, appearances. It looks like George Springer has not slumped even a little bit. His last 100 played appearances, he has a 391 ex-WOBA. That is an elite mark. That would be like a top 15 mark in baseball. If you look at the last 50, however, you see right around two weeks ago, it just collapsed. And his last 50 plate appearances before today, 288X Woba. That would be a
Starting point is 00:45:10 really, really bad mark and is a really, really bad mark. So, So he was super, super hot early in the month, and he was hitting the ball really well. And he has completely fallen apart over the last 50 play appearances, probably what, like 14, 15 games. So it looks like he has earned this slump that George Springer's in. And given what he's looked like in the previous years before this season, I tend not to write off even a small slump just because. Because we're talking about a 35-year-old who has had a pretty bad track record lately and then had two good months. I'm going to go with the longer track record there. So I'm not giving up on George Springer.
Starting point is 00:45:58 I'm not saying you need to drop him in every league. But I'm not necessarily writing off the possibility that this slump is not just a slump. Yeah. Springer is still 88% rostered on CBS. I would rather to roster him than carry carpenter right now, though. Yes, I think that's fair. Yeah. All right, let's talk about Yandy Diaz, who now has multiple hits in six straight. He went three for four with a run scored.
Starting point is 00:46:26 And Chris, did you realize that he is having a monster June hitting 423 with four homers, 14 runs, and 1137 OPS, 95 mile per hour average eggs velocity? And all of a sudden, the overall numbers, are exactly where they should be, maybe even better than you thought they would be for Yandy Diaz. I did notice this one. Thank you for asking. I was aware that Yanni Diaz was having a really, really nice June,
Starting point is 00:46:53 and overall looks like he's having a decent little bounce back season. You take the season long numbers at face value and just say that what Yondi Diaz is is a high 700s, low 800s OPS. He just got off to a slow start. I don't think this hot month is indicative of him getting back to that Monster 2020 season that he had. But yeah, I think you can look at what he's done overall and just say, hey, it's been a nice season. One thing I did not, I guess, had not picked up on his walk rate is only 6.3%.
Starting point is 00:47:31 That is really low for Yanni Diaz. I guess I kind of missed that he fell to 8.1% last season. So that's been a multi-year decline as he has, you know, kind of tried to transition into more of a power hitter than an on-base guy, which wouldn't be a bad thing. Because in theory, you would drive in more runs with a more contact focus, less walk-focused approach. But his RBI pace is fine. It's like 85, 88, something like that. That's useful. but it's not elite.
Starting point is 00:48:09 So I don't know. Good hitter. I think the overall numbers where it's like a low 800s OPS, that's probably what he is. I would agree, although I'm seeing now, his data,
Starting point is 00:48:23 his stack has data is actually better this year than it was two years ago when he had the best season of his career. He hit 330 with a 932 OPS. I don't think that is coming for Yandy Diaz, but yeah, I mean, 93.7 average XIVA velocity, career high barrel rate. Expected numbers look awesome here.
Starting point is 00:48:44 Not someone who has typically underperforms his expected stats, so that's a good point. I guess I was overlooking that about. There might be a little bit more room to grow, yeah. Maybe 300 hitter with like a mid-800s OPS, something like that. So that would be pretty awesome there for Yandy Diaz. Nico Horner, did you realize, Chris,
Starting point is 00:49:03 that this was his first home run of the season? Here we go. I did because there was a there was a piece on fan graphs, I think, the other day about Fernando Tatis and how he had gone 21 games in a row without a home run, which was the longest of his career. And they noted that Nico Horner had gone,
Starting point is 00:49:22 what, 72 or 71 games without a home run? That's a long time. Even for a guy who generally doesn't hit a lot of home runs. Yeah. Three for four with a sock into shoe here, his first home run of the season, his 15th steal. And if you look,
Starting point is 00:49:36 look at his season long line, Chris, everything kind of looks where it should be. Yeah. Except the home runs. And look, he's not expected to hit a lot of home runs, but you would probably think, I don't know, eight to ten by the end of the season. Right now he's on pace for two. So. Yeah, he had seven last season, nine the year before. Um, ironically, he is pulling the ball more this season, including in the air, which, you know, it's typically what we want. Although for a guy, with minimal power like Nico Horner.
Starting point is 00:50:08 It's not necessarily the best thing to be more predictable. You kind of want to be able to hit line drives all over the field, unless you're going to be able to hit them over the fence to the pull side. But yeah, I, in this instance, the margins are so small that like, you would normally expect, what, four or five home runs from Nico Horner over the course of a half season? well, you know, like the difference between 21 home runs and 18 home runs is barely noticeable. The difference between four and one seems like a lot,
Starting point is 00:50:47 but it's just three home runs each way, right? Yeah. So I don't, I did know that Nico Horner hadn't hit for much power. I don't know if it really changes his value very much. He's a really, really good source. batting average, he'll score a decent but not outrageous amount of runs. He will steal a decent but not outrageous number of bases and that's what he's doing. He'll probably hit like five or
Starting point is 00:51:16 six more home runs the rest of the way. It'll be a real power burst for him. Yeah. And you might think he's a person, Nico Horner, that excels more in a Roto league, but because he makes so much contact and he's in a great lineup, he just has so many played appearances, he's actually very good in points leagues as well. So just all around solid player. Wish there was a little bit more power. But should he be like a top five second basement? I've talked a lot about how bad the position's been.
Starting point is 00:51:44 I have him close. He's six for me. So I guess yeah. I have him six in points and seventh in Roto. So yeah, I think he's six and both for me. Yeah. All right. Let's talk about Chris Bubich who had another uneven start.
Starting point is 00:51:58 Six innings, eight hits, four runs. Only two of those were earned. strikeouts to zero walks, that looks good, 12 whiffs on 91 pitches, but had 10 hard hits in this game at 93.2 average exit velocity against. And Chris, did you realize that Chris Bubich over his last three starts has an average exit velocity against of 92.4? So whatever's happening, opposing batters are seeing him better, they're squaring him up a little bit more here. Overall numbers are still fantastic. I just wonder. especially because I think there will be an innings conversation at some point
Starting point is 00:52:36 if we should look into trying to sell high on Chris Bubich now. Can you ask me the did you realize question again? Over his last three starts, he has an ad. No, no, just the just the did you realize part? Oh. Just did you realize? Did you realize? Sorry, that's the song I was talking about earlier.
Starting point is 00:52:56 Flaming Lips song, do you realize? Great song, one of my favorite songs of all time. And I was just stalling to give me a, to give myself a chance to find something that Alex Chamberlain was talking about on Blue Sky over the past couple of weeks about how Chris Bubich, his foreseemer, is suppressing hitter exit velocities by 1.7 miles per hour relative to the rest of his arsenal. most pitchers their four seamers get hit harder than the rest of their arsenal. So for most hitters, according to what Alice Chamberlain said, four seamers get hit on average about 2.4 miles per hour harder. For Chris Bubich, this was as of June 3rd. It was, he was, his four seamer was suppressing exit velocity by 1.7 miles per hour.
Starting point is 00:53:54 It could just be that his four seamers, is really an outlier in a lot of ways. The fact that it sits 92.4 miles per hour and has a 30% whiff rate certainly suggests that it's an outlier in a lot of ways. But I think there's also a chance that the four seamer was just has been performing better than you should probably expect. And maybe we're seeing a little bit of regression. What's weird about this is in this start, the fours,
Starting point is 00:54:26 Seamer, it was 88.8 miles per hour average X velocity. The rest of the arsenal, 93.2. So even that explanation doesn't actually work here. And I just wasted everyone's time suggesting it. No, I think Chris Bubich is very clearly overperforming his talent level. He's certainly not a 2.1 to true ERA guy. And even his 308 XERA is probably not what you should expect moving forward. He's probably running a little hot.
Starting point is 00:54:58 And with the innings concerns that we've talked about, I do think it's reasonable to view Chris Bubbage as a sell high candidate. But I do think you have to, we say it all the time, but emphasize the high part of that statement. Don't just sell him to sell him. You've got to get, I think, what, a legit top 20 starting pitcher back for him? Yeah, I was going to say top 20 starting pitcher or I don't know, like a top 50 overall player.
Starting point is 00:55:28 Yeah. So like a top five round hitter basically, something like that. So in a points league, that's even more true because he's a spark there. And he is the top spark. The clearest top spark and probably, I don't know, a top five guy at the position rest of the season.
Starting point is 00:55:47 So yeah, you need a legit difference maker wherever you move him for. And that could be hard to do. But he's got. that pretty ERA and I think it's worth trying to get a real, real difference maker for him. All right. Again, that was Chris Bubich. Let's wrap up with some leftovers here.
Starting point is 00:56:09 And Chris, we've talked a lot about Spencer Strider over the past month or so. He has been very polarizing. And in this start, he struggled with control at the Mets, five innings, three runs, four walks, eight strikeouts. He had 15 whiffs on 91 pitches, only through 60% of his pitches for, Strikes, it was also 97 degrees in New York. So not that I want to make excuses for Shredder, but if there was any excuse that I think that might be it.
Starting point is 00:56:37 We've been paying close attention to the velocity. His fastball averaged 95.8 in this one. It was 96 plus in the previous two starts. So, you know, I still would rather it be up over 96, but what did you see here from Spencer Strider? Nothing seemed out of place. I think it's just for as good as he had been in what the previous two starts or was it three now? The previous two before this.
Starting point is 00:57:02 He was very good, yeah. As good as he had been in those previous two starts, I think there's still room for the command to be a little iffy. And that four seamer, I mean, he got nine whiffs on it. That's great. A lot of hard hit balls on it. And that's been an issue for him for the entire season when he's been pitching. So that's, he's not the. best pitcher in baseball anymore.
Starting point is 00:57:27 And that means that there are going to be starts where he looks like himself and there are going to be starts where it's a little iffy. I think on the whole, you just view him as a must start pitcher. Some hitting leftovers. Another big game for Riley Green who went four for five with a double, two runs and two RBI. Cotel Marte stayed hot, hit his 15th home run. Luis Robert hit his eighth homer and I'm reaching here, but he's got three homers in a steel in his last 14 games.
Starting point is 00:57:55 so I'm rooting for Luis Robert, man. I mostly want him to play well so he can get traded to a better team. I hope so. Yeah. I mean, I still think that's possible, but the White Sox are not going to get much for Luis Robert the way he's playing right now.
Starting point is 00:58:10 And Sayas Suzuki continued his awesome season, three for five with his 21st home run. He has had a great year. If I'm nitpicking, Chris, only two steals, but that's not fair. I mean, Suzuki's been all. awesome outside of that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:27 All right. Some pitch. He's still like top three in RBI, right? 67 RBI, yeah. Sounds like it. Awesome player. Yep. Some pitching leftovers.
Starting point is 00:58:36 Garret Crochet was nasty at the Angels. Seven shutout with 10 strikeouts. And that one, Carlos Rodon, a great outing against the Reds at Cincinnati. Six shutout with five strikeouts for him. And a big bounce back for Taj Bradley at the Royals, six and two-thirds shutout with four strikeouts. Only had eight whiffs, but the big talking point here for Bradley,
Starting point is 00:59:00 one walk and limited hard contact. If he can do those things even without getting whiffs, he could have some success, but those starts have been few and far between. He's 78% rostered already, so it's not even like I think there's a lot of leagues where it's worth chasing Tage Bradley. So, like, good start.
Starting point is 00:59:20 Let's watch the next one and see if he can do it again. But I'm not going to say we need to change. our recent assessment of Tosh Bradley based on this one. All right. Let's get into the call to the bullpen for the Rangers. Chris Martin entered in the seventh inning with a four-run lead. Two runners on. He allowed three homers. And boom, the Rangers were losing five to four after that. They eventually took lead back and Robert Garcia picked up his sixth save and that came in extra
Starting point is 00:59:49 innings. For the Braves, Ryssel Iglesias entered with one out in the ninth. Two runners on. a four-run lead. He allowed an RBI double, but did get the final two outs for his ninth save. And Dylan Lee threw 21 pitches on Monday, so I guess they were just giving him the night off here. Maybe they don't want to work him too hard on back-to-back days. For the Mariners, Andres Munoz entered in the eighth with the game tied, facing four, five, and six in the twins lineup. He struck out two. The Mariners took a one-run lead, and Matt Brash then got the ninth.
Starting point is 01:00:21 he struck out one for his first save and I think this is one of the first times Munoz has been used in the eighth inning all season. Yeah, that had been a somewhat regular thing for him in the past but not here and look, maybe they're confident enough with where Brash is to use Munoz a little more flexibly but he's been so good this season
Starting point is 01:00:47 and it's been such a rare occasion if it has happened before, that I'm not going to worry about it yet. All right. For the D-back, Shelby Miller got the ninth inning with a three-run lead. He picked up his ninth save. For the Cardinals, Ryan Heldsley,
Starting point is 01:01:03 got the ninth inning with a one-run lead. He allowed two hits, but picked up his 15th save. And the game ended on a great bare-handed play by Nolan Aronado. Clutch play, too, because if, you know, if that runner saved, then the game is tied.
Starting point is 01:01:17 So great play there by Aronado. For the Astros, Josh, Josh Hader picked up his 20th save. And for the Dodgers, Tanner Scott entered with two outs in the eighth, a four-run lead, bases loaded. He gave up a three-run double, but then did record the final four outs for his 16th save. Hey, no iron runs, baby?
Starting point is 01:01:38 I think if you ask most people, Chris, they're happy with what they've got from Tanner Scott because it's 16 saves. It's a mid-3s-ZRA. It's a lot of strikeouts, but it's been far from a perfect season for him. It's been rocky for sure. No pun intended there.
Starting point is 01:01:55 I still think my galaxy brain take, maybe I'm just dumb. I think he's throwing too many strikes. He still has a 2.9% walk rate, and it's very funny to have that complaint about Tanner Scott, given what his primary really only issue has been in the past, but I think he's throwing too many pitches in the strike zone because while the walk rate's been super low and the strikeout rate's been about what it's always been,
Starting point is 01:02:24 he has gone from consistently being one of the best suppressors of contact, of quality contact to really bad. He has a 91.9 mile per hour average exit velocity, 48% hard hit rate for Tanner Scott. These are very small sample sizes, but I think he's just been a little too hitable. I think he could be, he could go for a few more,
Starting point is 01:02:48 waste pitches to try to keep hitters off balance a little. But what do I? I'm who am I? You know? Why would you listen to me? Let's wrap up with to stream or not to stream on Wednesday. We have Edward Cabrera at the Giants, Max Scherzer in his Blue Jays debut at the Guardians, Jacob Lopez at the Tigers.
Starting point is 01:03:10 Those are really the only three that I think I would consider on Wednesday. I prefer Edward Cabrera to Max Scherzer. Jacob Lopez, extreme, extreme fly ball pitcher, like the most extreme flyball pitcher who has ever fly ball pitcher. I think his ground ball rate right now is 17%. If you're going to do that, Detroit's not a bad place to do it, but it could go really, really poorly. I think he's a really high variance pitcher who's doing some really interesting things. And then I do not start Didier Fuentes. He was not good in his first start.
Starting point is 01:03:45 And I think it's against the same team, right? his debut was against the Mets. Am I remember that? No, it was against the Marlins. Okay. Yeah, yeah, you're right, you're right. The Mets obviously better than the Marlins. But I think Fentas is pretty interesting, like on a talent level.
Starting point is 01:04:03 So I'm going to be watching that one just to see if he can, you know, look a little more polished than his first start. And then on Thursday, we have Jeffrey Springs at the Tigers. Hayden, Hayden Birdsong against the Marlins. Yeah, that's the best one here. Jans and Jungs look okay lately. I don't love that one,
Starting point is 01:04:26 but it wouldn't surprise me. Griffin Canning against the Braves, but he's looked pretty bad. Yeah, I think it's Springs and Bird Song. Yeah, I would agree there. All right, we're going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today.
Starting point is 01:04:38 Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Bye.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.