Fantasy Baseball Today - Chris' Early 2025 Top-50 Starting Pitchers! KC/CIN Trade & Kikuchi to the Angels! (11/27 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 27, 2024

** THIS WAS RECORDED BEFORE BLAKE SNELL SIGNED WITH THE DODGERS ** The Reds acquired Brady Singer in exchange for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer (5:35)! ... Yuseki Kikuchi signed with the Angels (10:...51)! ... Which players were non-tendered last week (14:25)? ... Let's jump into Chris' 2025 starting pitcher rankings, beginning with his top five (21:31). ... Just how good can Garrett Crochet be (23:34)? ... Chris is higher on Pablo Lopez than Scott is (28:27). ... Why is Chris lower on Blake Snell (32:35)? ... Hunter Greene has some volatility in his profile (42:39). ... Are we sleeping on Joe Ryan (45:41)? ... Where to rank Spencer Strider (49:24)? ... Shane McClanahan is coming off his second TJ surgery (54:02)? ... Can Kevin Gausman bounce back (57:24)? ... Should we lower all Rays pitchers (59:34)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Happy Thanksgiving Eve and welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, November 27th. I am Frank Stample, joined by Chris Towers.
Starting point is 00:00:32 Today on the show, we are taking a look at Chris's early top 50 starting pitchers for 2025. We did the same thing with Scott on our previous episode. So a little bit of compare and contrast, see who Chris might be higher or lower on heading into next season. And we had some moves. We had a trade between the Royals and Reds that went down last Friday, Jonathan India for Brady Singer and other pieces.
Starting point is 00:00:55 And you say Kikuchi signed with the Angels. Like the Angels, the busiest team in baseball all of a sudden. And we all the team cooking so far on the hot stove. Yeah. Speaking of cooking, how are you doing, Chris? How are you spending the next few days? Because it's a, it's a busy week, man. Thanksgiving Eve. It's like a, used to be like a party day for people, but you know, we're kind of getting old, Chris. And then there's Thanksgiving and Black Friday and all that fun stuff. What do you got going on? I have no. Well, actually, Thanksgiving Eve tonight, as we're not recording, but as we're releasing, is my 15 year wedding anniversary, which makes me sound way older than I am because we got married when we were 21. but we are going to get some fancy burgers for dinner. I don't know if you've ever heard of O'Sheaval, but great burgers.
Starting point is 00:01:42 So that's our fancy anniversary plan. And then my mom and sister are in town. And we're hosting Thanksgiving in our tiny apartment with like 11 people coming over. So, whoa. It's, yeah, I just finished all my shopping. I have like a schedule. My mom's going to make the turkey. she makes great turkey.
Starting point is 00:02:04 So I'm looking forward to it. I also just have had like a low level of anxiety like for like the last seven straight days just thinking about everything with Thanksgiving. So love it. It'll be great. Great food. Looking forward to it passing as well. Yeah, man. Good luck.
Starting point is 00:02:26 I, you know, obviously as a native New Yorker, I've helped you move. I've seen your apartment. It's a nice apartment. But, you know, once you get 11 people in there. It's going to be pretty cramped. Yeah. It's going to be one of those like, it's a little chilly outside. We'll have 10 people cramped in our small apartment.
Starting point is 00:02:42 The windows are going to fog up. Like, it's going to be that kind of crowded in here. So it'll be fun. It'll be nice. I haven't seen my mom and sister in a while. So I'm looking forward to it. It's just, you know, the holidays are a stressful time. Many movies have been made about this very topic.
Starting point is 00:03:00 I'm not saying anything. novel. I hope you have a good time. Are you going to be with your family? Yeah, yeah. I usually do the split thing. I, you know, I'm with the in-laws for dinner, although, you know, it's always kind of like an early dinner and then go over to my parents for dessert. And so, uh, yeah, it's a good time. There'll be football. You know, we usually watch Just Friends. It's like a Thanksgiving tradition. We always watch Just Friends. Good movie. Fantastic movie. So it's a, I'll start to the holiday season. I'll throw on Martin Scorsese's the last waltz, the greatest Thanksgiving movie of all time. I haven't seen it. Should I see it?
Starting point is 00:03:34 It's the, it's the, the band, the band. You know, the band, the band. No. It's a band called the band. Okay. And it's there was their last performance and they did a Thanksgiving performance. It's great. Great stuff. So Bob Dylan shows up, Neil Young. It's great stuff. Watch it.
Starting point is 00:03:54 All right. Let's get into some news and notes. Ask your dad. Yeah. He probably would know something about that. Let's hit this first. We'll get the news and stuff out of the way, and then we'll get into your rankings, Chris. The Reds, they acquired Brady Singer from the Royals for Jonathan India and Joey Weimer.
Starting point is 00:04:10 And if we're being completely honest, honesty is the best policy. This is a bad trade all around for fantasy because India is going to a bad hitters park and Brady Singer is going to a really bad pitchers park. So India this past season, he hit 248, 15 home runs, 84 runs scored, 13 steals. Chris, your thoughts here.
Starting point is 00:04:31 I guess, yeah, let's start with the India side of this. What do you think here for Jonathan, India? I don't hate it as much for India as I do for Singer, because while Kauffman Stadium is a spacious park, it is a roomy park, it is a tough place to hit home runs, especially compared to the Great American Ballpark, which is kind of on the opposite of that spectrum. But in terms of actual run scoring,
Starting point is 00:04:59 Kansas City is not that much worse. than Cincinnati. Over the past three years, Cincinnati has a 105 park factor. Coffman Stadium has a 104, according to baseball savant. And a big part of that is, for whatever reason,
Starting point is 00:05:16 Kaufman Stadium tends to suppress strikeouts. And in singles, home runs, and doubles, and triples are all inflated. At Coffman Stadium, home runs are massively deflated Jonathan India not a big home run hitter anyway so maybe he goes from I don't know you project 15 to 12 but could this get him to you know with his pretty solid play discipline more like a 275 280 batting average I could see that and he walks a decent amount and he'll be at the top of the lineup and the the royals have been willing to run so like
Starting point is 00:05:58 maybe he goes from 15 homers last season to 12. Decent chance that he scores 90 plus runs. And, you know, if he pairs that with a 275 average and 15 to 20 stolen base, I know he's never stolen more than 14, but, you know, maybe they're a little more aggressive. Maybe he's, you know, gets a little, a bit more volume. And yeah, I could see Jonathan India being a pre-23 breakout. pre-23 Brandon Nimmo. You know, he's hit for a little more power lately and I think ran more last year,
Starting point is 00:06:38 if I'm remembering correctly. But Nimmo did, yeah. Yeah, that high OBP, a lot of runs, not necessarily a standout for fantasy, but like a useful player. I could see Jonathan India being that. I don't know if I ranked Brady Singer in my top 80 at starting pitcher. I basically have no, even in like a 15 team league, I'm not sure I would have. much interest in him. Yeah, I actually agree completely. You know, Jonathan, India, I don't think
Starting point is 00:07:06 he has big upside, but for those who play in any format with a middle infield spot, a second base shortstop and middle infield spot, then I do think India is going to be in play. I think there's a high floor there. He's going to lead off. That's what the Royal specifically wanted India for in this deal. So he's going to hit ahead of Bobby Witt, Vinnie P. Salvador Perez. He should score a boatload of runs. So the home runs, I agree, they're coming back. He has 63 career. home runs, Jonathan India. According to Stackcast, he would have 42 if he played all of his career games
Starting point is 00:07:36 at Kaufman Stadium. So, you know, 260 to 270, 10 homers, but 90 runs scored and 15 to 20 seals, that's like a viable solid option. You know, again, he's not going to like blow the doors off, but I think he can be serviceable. Brady Singer
Starting point is 00:07:52 He is my number 100 SP. That might be too high. That might be too, because like, I know he was useful last year and there was really a long strass. Like, I think he fell apart over the last two months, but he had a sub three ERA as late as July 31st. I have to imagine he faced the white socks like 12 times, just a rough guess. I think it was only four. But the underlying numbers were really bad all along.
Starting point is 00:08:25 He had a 465x ERA. Okay, you could maybe think, okay. a guy who gets hit hard, maybe that doesn't hurt him as much at Kaufman Stadium. I think it's going to be a real problem in Cincinnati. And I think there's a pretty good chance he's not even in the rotation the whole season. Yeah. So it was a 371 ERA, a 127 whip for Singer. But as you pointed out, the underlying numbers not nearly as good.
Starting point is 00:08:51 And the flip side to what I said about India, Brady Singer has allowed 82 career home runs. According to Stackass, he would have allowed 113 if he pitched every single. single inning in Great American Ballpark. So it's like a better real life move for them. They need people, they need pitchers. You need innings. Yeah, like there's no doubt about it. But from a fantasy perspective, maybe he's a streamer on the road in the right matchup. But yeah, I mean, just in general, I don't think Brady Singer is going to be rostered in many leagues. Let's talk about you say Kukuchi, who surprisingly signed a three-year, $63 million deal. The contract is not all that surprising. The landing spot, the Angels. The Angels, the Angels,
Starting point is 00:09:31 are seemingly the only team that's been busy so far, making just kind of random moves. They signed Travis Darno. They traded for Horace Hollare. Now they sign Yusay Kikuchi. And the biggest question, and this would have been the biggest question regardless, Chris, is can Kukuchi maintain the gains he made in Houston?
Starting point is 00:09:48 So 10 starts with the Astros, a 270 ERA, a 0.93 whip, nearly a 26% K-minus walk rate, 13.7% swinging strike rate. He changed the pitch makes he threw more sliders. I don't think this is something he's just going to forget how to do, but Tyler Anderson, a couple of years ago, he was awesome with the Dodgers, signed with the Angels,
Starting point is 00:10:09 and his first year there, he was terrible. So what do you think about this landing spot here with Kikuchi? I mean, the thing that's tough with Kikuchi is there really has never been more than like a three-month stretch where you said Kikuchi has been the same picture. Like you, I'm looking at a stackass like rolling month by month, And it's like, he had a stretch in 2022 where he threw his slider like 50, 45% of the time. Last year, he opened up the season during his slider a bunch and then kind of got, never got rid of it, but went from like 35% to 23% through the curveball more.
Starting point is 00:10:47 Last year, it was trading curveballs for sliders was the answer. And it's, he's constantly tinkering. And the good thing is, I think at various points, you take Kukuchi, will lock in. in and be very good. I don't know how much I love the idea of drafting him super high. And that probably would have been the case regardless of whether he was in Houston or, you know, went to Los Angeles or whatever. I just, I think he's an inherently volatile pitcher who will have really good stretches.
Starting point is 00:11:21 I don't think I ever want him as anything more than like an SP5 on my team. Yeah. So the early ADP for Kukuchi. through 61 NFBC drafts is 141.4. That seems pretty reasonable. I was going to say, I think that seems pretty high. So he's right between Jared Jones and Kodai Senga. You'd rather have Jones.
Starting point is 00:11:42 The only projection system out right now is Steamer, and they have Kukuchi projected as the SP 26. So I think that might be driving some of this early ADP costs. And my guess is this will drop down a little bit. If it's 141, you know, by the time we get to February and March, I think it's probably closer to 175. Yeah, I think that's probably fair. And it ultimately just comes down to like, you know, there are other pitchers like this.
Starting point is 00:12:08 Blake's now being an obvious example on the high end, but there are always pitchers who just, you know it's going to be a ride. And that's the way I view you say Kikuchi where I think I'd rather not be the one to draft him. I have him ranked in a similar range. So it's not, I'm not like super out on him. I think he's SP 46 or something. for me around 141 in my early overall rankings. But I kind of view it like I do Blake Snell where it's like let someone else draft him. If he gets off to a bad start, there's a decent chance you say Kikuchi gets dropped or you
Starting point is 00:12:43 can buy him for very little. And I do think, you know, he'll have a stretch where he's very good. It's just I don't trust him to be must start all year. All right. The deadline to tender contracts was last Friday and some notable name. notable names were non-tendered. Jordan Romano with the Blue Jays who had arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow
Starting point is 00:13:05 in July of last year. He had back-to-back seasons with 36 saves. If you're just looking at the roster for now, Chad Green is the next man up, but the Blue Jays are talking like they want to spend some money this off season. So we'll see how their bullpen shakes out. Kyle Finnegan with the Nationals was non-tendered.
Starting point is 00:13:22 He was coming off a career high, 38 saves, but the numbers plummeted in the second half. It's just very curious as to why the nationals, maybe they tried and there were no takers. Why didn't they trade him at the deadline if there was even a possibility that they would non-tender him in the offseason? So I just don't really understand that one.
Starting point is 00:13:41 And then it's the same with Brenna Rogers with the Rockies where they just chose not to trade him. Like your opinion of a player can't change that much in a two-month span, right? Like we don't understand. So I think the nationals are one where I would, bet that the leader in saves is not on this roster right now.
Starting point is 00:14:03 Yeah, I would agree with that. If for some reason they don't sign someone, Robert Garcia has some good underlying numbers there, but he's also a lefty, so... But yeah, they're talking like they want to spend money too, so my guess is the Nationals do sign some kind of closer this offseason. Brian Dela Cruz and...
Starting point is 00:14:20 How could you do this to me? Connor Joe, we're non-tendered by the pirates. Brandon Rogers and Calquantrol with the Rockies, Dylan Carlson with the Rays, Austin Hayes with the Phillies, Ramon Loriano and Griffin Canning with the Braves so that Salar Trade was solely a salary dump for the Braves. Mike Talkman, Nick Madrigal, and Patrick Wisdom with the Cubs and Josh Rojas with the Mariners.
Starting point is 00:14:43 Were there any other names you wanted to touch on there? I don't know. Like, Ramon Luriano was pretty good after he got to the Braves, but I don't think there's much there. We'll see, like Cal Quantrell, he has interesting. skills and, you know, maybe, you know, course field makes it kind of impossible to actually judge. So maybe he goes somewhere and, you know,
Starting point is 00:15:06 signs in a pitcher's park and has some relevance next year. But I, none of these guys seem to seem likely to matter. All right. And the Red Sox have had internal discussions about moving Raphael Devers off third base. He does not grade out well. I mean, let's be honest, he's just not a good third baseman. So it sounds like first base is a possibility. but there's also Tristan Kossis.
Starting point is 00:15:29 So do they move Kossis to D.H? Do they trade Kossis? Do they trade Yoshita? Again, there are many questions. They would love to trade Yoshita. I was reading a Ken Rosenthal report today, actually, that they are just having trouble finding something. I think he's got like three years, $56 million left on his deal or something.
Starting point is 00:15:46 They're going to have to eat a chunk or attach a prospect. And Kossis has also been discussed in some trade rumors. It hasn't been like there's not a ton of smoke. there, but I've seen his name. That would make sense. I wouldn't hate it for his value. Fenway Park is a tough place for left-handed power hitters. And like Breggman would seem like a good fit there.
Starting point is 00:16:14 Yeah. Or, you know, I mentioned, I think we talked about it on FFT in five last week, but Arnato, you know, going to the like the Astros was one that I mentioned. but if there was any chance for him to revive his career, it would seem to be with a park with a very short left field fence. He's still a very good defender. So I could see Boston doing that if they miss out on some of the bigger name free agents. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:16:41 And obviously, if you're Boston, you'd rather not trade a young talent like Tristan Kossis, but if you build a deal around Kossis for Garikrochet, I mean, that feels like it makes a lot of sense for bold sides. So again, the Red Sox, there's going to be a lot that happens with this team in the offseason. Between Kossis, Yoshita, all those left-handed outfielders, there's going to definitely be something that happens. Before we hit our first break, a reminder to sign up for the FBT newsletter. If you haven't already, scan the QR code if you're watching on YouTube.
Starting point is 00:17:11 That will bring you right to the website. Click on that FBC logo. You hit subscribe, and it's easy as that. Let's take our first break when we return into Chris's top 50 starting pitchers right after this. welcome back in Chris's way too early top 50 starting pitchers for next season. We'll go in groups of five. We'll make some comparisons between Scott and Chris's rankings here. And also worth noting, it's November 27.
Starting point is 00:17:38 So things are subject to change as injuries come out or if we learn about a new pitch and velocity and all that stuff. One thing for me is like I have made a decent amount of progress on my overall rankings over the past couple of days. not at all finished. These are all still, in my mind, very rough drafts. I will gladly admit right now. I think the last podcast we did with Scott, I moved someone like 12 spots down as we were talking because it's like, I'm open to being convinced at this point in the process.
Starting point is 00:18:11 I haven't like done a draft with these rankings yet. The two drafts I've done were before I had finished any of my rankings. So like, I have no idea how any of this. looks right now. So I welcome the scrutiny. Tell me what is wrong with my rankings, please. All right. Well, let's jump in. Top five for Chris. We have Terrick Scoobel, Zach Wheeler, Paul Skeen's, Corbyn, Burns, and Logan Gilbert. I think a pretty standard top five. As we've mentioned, there's a pretty clear top three between Scuba, Wheeler, and Skeens, in some order. But you opted to rank Burns as your SP4. Scott has Chris Sale as his SP4. And I
Starting point is 00:18:52 mention I'm probably going to have Logan Gilbert as my SP4. Are you buying the adjustments that Corbyn Burns made with his cutter towards the end of the season? And any concern about, you know, first year, mega contract, my guess is it's going to be in a new location. I don't think he'll be back with the Orioles. Yeah, I mean, I think the Orioles need another starting pitcher after resigning Corbyn Burns. So I'm not sure exactly what the plan there is if Burns goes somewhere else. but I yeah like I don't think we're ever going to get Corbyn Burns of 2021 or 2022 right where he was an 11 12 13 K per 9 guy he was the best pitcher in baseball like I think we're past that but what what I see with Corbyn burns right now is a really high floor as high a floor as a pitcher can have at this point and there is room for the ceiling to improve maybe not back to 2021 or 2012 22 levels, but, you know, he was an above average strikeout pitcher in 2023.
Starting point is 00:19:54 He was more like average in 2024. The fact that he acknowledged his cutter was not very good last year and put in the work in September, especially to get it back to where I think the whiff rate was like 27% in September with the cutter. He had a very good postseason start as well. That was actually like 26%, 27% is right around where he was in 2022. So I'm not saying I expect him to get back to that. But we saw a flash of it at the end of the season.
Starting point is 00:20:25 And that was enough with the high floor for me to bacon some upside there where I think he is the number four SP. All right, six through 10 in your rankings, you have Chris Sale, Cole Regens, Garrett Crochet, George Kirby, and Dylan C. So crochet, I think going to be a really polarizing player all offseason. You actually have Crochet ranked a few spots higher than Scott does. Scott has him at SP 10.
Starting point is 00:20:49 You have Crochet at SP 8. on a per inning basis, he was maybe the best pitcher in baseball last year. Among pitchers with 140 innings, Crochet, was first in K-minus walk rate, first in Sierra, first in swinging strike rate, and fourth in expected ERA. The questions, where is he going to pitch, and how does his arm respond? Going from 25 total innings in 2023 all the way up to 146 this past season. Chris, if you were to draft Crochet, do you make it a priority to insulate him with, other inning eater types, like a maybe a Framber Valdez,
Starting point is 00:21:24 Aranola, or on the lower end, like a Seth Lugo or Jose Burrio, someone like that. I think that's the approach you have to take. And I do think like a garro crochet for Amber Valdez combo makes a lot of sense in terms of, you know, upsides and downsides for those two players, their strengths and weaknesses complement each other. The thing is it's not just that he only threw 24 and two-thirds innings in
Starting point is 00:21:45 2023. He threw 54 and a third in 2021. He threw nine and a third. 2020. He was not a full-time starter in college at all. So, like, this is by far the most innings. Garrow Crochet has ever thrown in a season. Maybe he threw a lot in high school, but I assume not. So this is completely uncharted territory for him. And because of the way the White Sox handled him in the second half, and I'm not criticizing the way they handled him, it was frustrating, but I get why it happened. We just, just don't know what the impact of the
Starting point is 00:22:23 innings that he threw. Like, if they had just let him go 140 innings and then cut him off whenever he hit that point, does he run out of steam in the same way? How much of the struggles in the second half were related to, you know, the mental side of, you know, like between the knowing you're never going to throw more than four innings in a start and he didn't in any of his final 14,
Starting point is 00:22:50 starts and knowing you're pitching for a historically bad team like that's going to that's going to mess with your your competitiveness no matter who you are and so I think there's a big unknown here but then I look at 68 strikeouts in 44 and a third two-thirds innings and his final 14 starts he still had a 339 fit it was a little higher than his first half but still very very good and that was under again very difficult circumstances. So I think when you're talking about talent, I, like, I'm not sure there should be a big gap in Garer Crochet and Paul Schen's per inning projections in 2025. I think he's in the discussion for best pitcher in baseball on a perning basis based on what we saw last year. I have no idea how sustainable it is. I think it makes a lot of sense to be skeptical. And you will see a lot of
Starting point is 00:23:46 pitchers who I am skeptical of in similar situations. But with crochet, I just, I do think the opposite is he's the best pitcher in baseball on a burning basis. So I'm willing to rank him that way, at least for now. That's also assuming he gets traded. I think it's one of the safest assumptions you can make this offseason. And no matter where he goes, it will be a team that you would project to win 40 plus games compared to what the white socks did last year. So like I don't look at the six six wins last year. I think you project a fairly normal number of wins for Garrett Crochet as well. So I just there are durability concerns. There are projectability concerns. I get all that. Those just exist for Chris Sale had a huge inning jump. Cole Reagan's had a huge inning jump. When you talk about
Starting point is 00:24:37 everybody on this list, Kirby and Cs are very safe in terms of their inning projections, but there are a lot Michael King is another guy who had a huge innings jump. So there's just a lot of guys in that situation. I think Garry Crochet might just be the best of them, though. You mentioned there might not be a huge difference on a per-ening basis between Skeens and Crochet in 2025. Just wanted to point out that Skeens is currently projected as the SP3. According to Steamer, 188 innings, $35.5.
Starting point is 00:25:09 That's in a 15-team league. Garrett Crochet is projected as the SP5. 170 innings and a $30.8 player in a 15 team league. So it's not a huge difference, but you're getting like two or three rounds worth of value compared to where you have to take Paul Skeins versus Crochet. 11 through 15, in your rankings, you have Garrett Cole, Framber Valdez,
Starting point is 00:25:30 Michael King, Pablo Lopez, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. So one name here you are higher on than Scott is Pablo Lopez, who Scott has at SP19, you have here at 14, the underlying skills still look really good for Lopez, but he continues to pitch to a higher ERA than you'd like. It's 387 since coming over to the Twins last year. That's a 64-star stretch. It's not really a small sample size.
Starting point is 00:25:57 All the underlying numbers say he should be better, but at some point, Chris, do we just accept that Pablo Lopez might be prone to having a higher ERA than we'd like? I'm open to that, yeah. I mean, it's, you know, it was 375 his last year in Miami as well. So he might just be a mid mid to high three's ERA guy. And that would be tough. The whip is always pretty decent, but not great.
Starting point is 00:26:20 So I get the arguments against him. For me, it just comes down to actually one of the safer volume projections in baseball. 180 plus three years in a row. Yeah. Like remember when he, you know, before 2020, there were a lot of shoulder issues for him. He had only really managed to stay healthy in the short. in 2020 season. He hasn't had any issues the last three seasons.
Starting point is 00:26:46 I think at this point, you kind of just say he's about as projectable as anyone, 234, 198 strikeouts the last two seasons as well. I think there's room for the strikeouts to improve again after 2024 was down a little bit. So I think he's probably maybe the new Aeronola where it's like, if he's your ace, that's probably not great, but now you don't have to draft him that way, so you can live with the lower, the higher ERA. And he might be a good choice to pair with someone like Crochet,
Starting point is 00:27:20 who has volume concerns, because Pablo at this point feels pretty relative to the pitching position safe. This is a weird range in the rankings where like, Agaricole 11, I don't know, that might be too high. It might be too low. I, Yoshinobi Yamamoto, another one where I, I don't really know how to value him. And I think Scott has him a little lower than this as well, if, if I remember from an earlier conversation. But like, my position on Yamamoto's upside hasn't changed.
Starting point is 00:27:56 Like, he had a really good first season in the majors, despite some real difficulties along the way. If he manages to stay healthy this season and as a Cy Young finalist, I would not be at all surprised for, Yamamoto there. So it's, this is a weird range of the rankings as well. Yeah. Garrett Cole for sure. I mean, there are a lot of tough pitchers to rank, but I would say, you know, among the top five toughest, Cole, Strider, DeGrom, Glassnow, just trying to figure out where to put these guys who all could be top five pitchers in terms of talent. Yeah, yeah, 100%. The way Scott broke it down is he kind of, he has Cole's same spot as USP 11 and he kind of just split the difference. He said, this is kind of hedging the bet between
Starting point is 00:28:39 Garikol could return all the way back to form and if he does, he's a top three starting pitcher or maybe last year was kind of the start of, all right, he's declining a little bit and maybe he doesn't throw that slider as much because the elbow isn't completely healthy and, you know. And I will say, like, if I had to bet on one of those being more likely,
Starting point is 00:28:58 it's probably the latter. Like, he's a 34-year-old. Most guys don't age that way, right? Most guys don't decline in their mid-30s and then get back to being elite. Now, Justin Verlander just did it multiple times in his mid to late 30s. You know, remember when he left the Tigers, we were kind of like, okay, Justin Verlander's done. And then he goes to Houston and wins another Cy Young.
Starting point is 00:29:26 You can't necessarily bet on everyone following that path, even though, you know, Garrick-Cole in terms of talent isn't that far off from Justin Verlander. your SP 16 through 20 you have Luis Castillo, Shota Imanaga, Blake Snell, Jacob de Grom, and Aaron Nola. So we've talked about some pitchers that you're higher on than Scott.
Starting point is 00:29:45 One name that you are clearly lower is Blake Snell, who you have here at 18. Scott has at SP8, and his main point was that you could say what you want about inconsistencies and stretches of looking really good and really bad. Over the last three years,
Starting point is 00:30:00 Snell has a 282 ERA, a 116 whip, 12K per 9, and won a Sigh-Young. So I guess the inverse here, Chris, why do you have Blake Snell so much lower than Scott? I guess I'm kind of confused as to why we would rank Blake Snell much higher than we did last year.
Starting point is 00:30:17 And he wasn't, like, he's still a free agent. We assume he's not going to sign in March again, but we don't know that right now. He's the same, like, he's the same guy. Yeah. And I just... To be fair, I do think Scott ranks Snell pretty high. last year too though yeah and we know what the upside is on a purringing basis but this is another guy who
Starting point is 00:30:44 has only thrown like his track record for injuries is slightly better than tyler glass now's right like he hasn't had the the blow up like tommy john season like tyler glass now did a few years ago he has surpassed 135 innings something tyler glass now i think did once in the minors if you include that but has never done it at the major league level. Snell has done it twice in a nine-year career. That's not nothing. But, you know, you look at the innings total of the last four seasons, 128. 128, 180, 104.
Starting point is 00:31:18 That is not a pitcher that we typically rank in the top 10. And so I get the upside. The other thing that you have to keep in mind, and this is more for drafting than ranking, but you have to keep in mind your own personal willingness to ride the Blake Snell roller coaster because he has had ERAs in the five plus range like halfway through the season, I think in three of the past four years. And you can say, oh, well, last year it was just because he signed late.
Starting point is 00:31:50 But if he does it every year, there's some reason that things go wrong for Blake Snell. And, you know, I remember, I think after, was it after last year? or maybe after 2022. I think you had the stop throwing your change up, Blake Snell, and you'll be fine. I think that was the storyline on Blake's now. And it's just never as easy as we want it to be.
Starting point is 00:32:13 Yeah. Like sometimes he has the feel for the slider. Sometimes he has the feel for the curveball. Sometimes he drops his arm slots. Sometimes he raises his arm slots. Sometimes the change-up is really good. I think the change-up was really good last year. And so it just all comes down to,
Starting point is 00:32:28 we know how good Blake Snell can be. And maybe his change-up is, his best case scenario is higher than Garrett crochets. I tend to think they're probably a little similar. And I've just seen it go wrong for Blake Snell more often. Like there's a lot of injuries in his career. He's never efficient. Like he has never, never, never, never avered six innings per start.
Starting point is 00:32:54 I'm not sure he's ever come particularly close to six innings per start. And we care about that less now, but it's still like he needs. to run like a 200 Babbitt to come even close to six innings per start, which is what happened in 2023 and 2018 that only two seasons has ever come close. So I just, I just kind of don't want the headache, you know? Maybe that's, maybe that's oversimplifying, maybe that's stupid.
Starting point is 00:33:22 And like looking at this list, I should have Luis Castillo behind him. I have Luis Castile a little too high. So like, I could move him to 17. fairly easily, but I kind of just don't want to have to deal with it. Yeah. And something I want to be more cognizant of in 2025 is the ratios, right? Look, if you play in a points league with Blake Snell, you laid it out.
Starting point is 00:33:46 Like, you need them to be more efficient to consistently give you quality start. So maybe he's someone you devalue a little bit in that format. But in category leagues, you know, ERA whip, they've been problems for me. And if you take Blake Snell, I know he's coming off a 105 whip, but it's 1205 whip, but it's 122 for his career. So I would expect it to be more in like that, you know, 115, a 120 range. You have to consider that. You have to pair him with like a, a Bailey Ober or a George Kirby or someone like that. If you put him with Dylan Cs, yeah, you're going to get all the strikeouts in the world. You also might get like a 120 whip between your top two pitchers there. So. And also the thing to
Starting point is 00:34:25 keep in mind there is a lot of the later pitchers who like, we can talk, you say Kukuchi, I think it's good example of this. There are, there are Louise Heel. There are guys who like, when you're filling out your staff and you're looking for your number four, number five, number six SPs, there are a lot of guys that are like, hey, this guy's going to get a lot of strikeouts. Those guys tend to have pretty bad whips. Spencer Arrogatti is a perfect example. He had like a one six whip last year. 140, I think. Yeah. And so like, we expect him to be better in 2024. But if he's a really good strikeout pitcher with a 3-7 ERA, that might come with a one-three whip. And if you've already got Blake Snell as one of your anchors, that can be really tough to get ahead of. So it's just,
Starting point is 00:35:11 it's just, I don't think it's, I want that headache to be my particular headache. I will take, there are enough headaches at the starting pitcher position without taking on a one that you know is going to be a headache. Someone else that might be a headache here you have at SP19 is Jacob deGrom. He made his return from Tommy John late last season. Should be all good to go on opening day. You know, still seems electric. But he hasn't thrown more than 92 innings since 2019. I have no idea.
Starting point is 00:35:40 When I first started the SP process back in October, I think he was like SP 43. And I have seen people who have him in the top 10. And I have heard arguments that getting Tommy John surgery a second time was a good thing. Because it fixed the underlying issue to hit. Maybe. I don't know. I have no idea what to do with Jacob de Grom.
Starting point is 00:36:06 My ideal world is just I don't rank Jacob de Grom and that way there's no paper trail for whatever happens this season. If he throws 140 innings and is the best pitcher in fantasy, that's on the table. He throws 80 innings and is still top 30. That's also on the table. I'm very confident Jacob de Grom is going to be good. but I'm less confident that he's going to be good than I did was before the Tommy John surgery, second Tommy John surgery for him. And I have no idea on the volume.
Starting point is 00:36:37 Like he could throw 180 innings. Like this is not a situation where I think there's no chance he throws an ace workload. I think it's possible if he stays healthy. Like I don't think there's any world in which like Jacob de Grom is awesome all year stays healthy but only throws 140 innings because the Rangers just they don't have any reason to hold him back like that. Their competitive window is now. Yeah, this is a team that needs to be trying to win World Series right now.
Starting point is 00:37:07 And yes, they need to preserve Jacob de Grom, but I don't think there's any reason to think that the difference from Jacob de Grom is staying healthy in October is throwing 140 in the regular season versus 170. So he is one of the pitchers who if everything breaks right and he stays healthy, I think can get to 180. I have, he, I might throw five. You might not get to the start of the season. I have no, like, I have no reason to believe in him.
Starting point is 00:37:32 So this is another one where it's kind of splitting the difference between what I think the upside is, which is the best pitcher in baseball, and him being completely useless. Yeah. And if this early ADP remains, I'm not going to draft him. I don't think anybody on this podcast is going to draft Jacob de Grom because his ADP is 40 as the eighth starting pitcher off the board right now. I cannot in any world justify that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:59 Let's take our final break. When we return, we've got 30 more pitchers in like 25-ish minutes. Yeah, we got it. So let's do that right after this. Welcome back in your SP 21 through 25 for next season. You have Logan Webb, Bailey Ober, Hunter Green, Max Fried, and Bryce Miller. So very clearly SP2-ish range, kind of like high floor volume guys. one name that stands out here is Hunter Green
Starting point is 00:38:26 because I don't think that he kind of fits that mold and he's another name that you have lower than Scott who Scott has at SP 18 Green had to break out season a lot of it was fueled by quality of contact he also went on the IL with right elbow soreness and has a history of shoulder problems so again I haven't ranked yet
Starting point is 00:38:45 but I feel like I will probably be closer to where you have Hunter Green Chris maybe even lower because there are just some scary things in the profile overall for him Yeah, I could see lower. I have a hard time going higher. I know he was really good. I think I was the highest one on him going into last season. And he had a really good season and did what we wanted to see.
Starting point is 00:39:08 It's just we talked about it in the most recent podcast before Scott's. And he had this massive jump in quality of contact allowed. The expected well-bond contact went from 384 to 307. 307 is a number you almost never see. for starting pitchers, and you certainly almost never see it twice. So that's a really hard thing. It's a lot like Dylan sees his breakout in 2022, 2022, where the strike rate actually went down,
Starting point is 00:39:39 the walk rate basically stayed the same. The big differentiator was the quality of contact. And look, maybe the addition of the splitter, even though he only threw it 8% of the time, maybe that's enough to just get batters under the barrel, to get the barrel under the ball, and not right on the ball. I could see that being an argument for it.
Starting point is 00:39:57 I just, that is a skill that takes a long time to stabilize. You should bet on regression when you have outliers either way. And Hunter Green before last season was very bad in terms of quality of contact allowed. I think you should probably project more like average and an ERA closer to the mid-3s.
Starting point is 00:40:20 And he's another one who I don't think has thrown more than the A. he's never thrown more than 150 innings at the major league level. Last year has to be by far the career high for him even taking the minors. Because he's been in the majors basically full time the last three years, right? So I just think there are more ways that can go wrong, unfortunately, because I really like Hunter Green. I would love to be wrong. Yeah. It's just a volatile profile.
Starting point is 00:40:46 It's based on the skill set and the injury history too. There are a lot of studies that show when you throw up. upper 90s with the fastball, the likelihood of maintaining that velocity year over year without injury is not very good. So, you know, Hunter Green had the elbow last year. He has a history of shoulder as well. So I do kind of worry about him overall moving forward as well. SP 26 through 30, you have Freddie Peralta, Hunter Brown, Zach Gallen, Joe Ryan, and Tyler Glassnow. So this is where things really start to open up between you and Scott. Somebody you're much higher on, Joe Ryan, Scott has at 38, you have at 29, and someone you're much lower on, you have Glassnow here at 30.
Starting point is 00:41:29 Scott has him at SP 16. So Ryan had a strong season, he added velocity to his fastball. He did end the year with a grade 2 terrorist major strain in his right shoulder. And then Glassnow, he pitched well once again, but it's kind of the same old song and dance. He was limited to 22 starts through a career high 134 innings. He ended the season on the aisle with an elbow sprain, did not appear in the postseason. So Chris talked to me here about Joe Ryan and Tyler Glassnow. I know Tyler Glassnow has said he's healthy right now.
Starting point is 00:42:03 I don't know. Like, I'm sure. You're not pitching right now. So yeah, it's easier for you to be healthy. The one constant throughout Tyler Glassnow's career is when he pitches, he does not stay healthy. And I don't think there's any reason to change your expectations in that regard. I think you look at him and hope you get 134 innings again. And anything more than that is absolutely gravy.
Starting point is 00:42:27 And he was more valuable than SP 30 in 134 innings last year. I think it was like SP 15 or something from what we talked about the other day. So maybe I'm being too low, but like SP 30 is not the likeliest outcome here. Right. Like if he sprains that elbow in June, you're probably talking about less than 100 innings from Tyler Glass now on a team that we know needs to limit his innings because all they care about is being healthy in October
Starting point is 00:42:56 they're going to do everything they can to limit the injury risk for Tyler Glasson. So I just, I think with that one again, I'm just kind of done chasing the upside. And if he falls, he falls, and I'll take a rip. It makes it really hard to build a staff with a guy like that.
Starting point is 00:43:12 And then Joe Ryan, I don't understand why you and Scott hate Joe Ryan. I haven't ranked yet. So I might have him around here. I don't know. He hit him last year. I did hate him last year. The 450 ERA last year and I get the concerns there.
Starting point is 00:43:27 But then he comes out in 2024. Another guy who tinkers constantly. I don't see much difference between Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Like I think they're both elite whip guys. You know, 110, 117, 099 for Joe Ryan over the past three seasons. over a little better, but I think they're also both guys with a lot of ERA volatility.
Starting point is 00:43:57 But J. Ryan, you know, he added the slider or the sweeper last year through the splitter more. I think he reworked the splitter as well. It was a harder version of the splitter. So that was a new pitch for him. And it was, you know, quite good. So I don't know, man. I don't really get the, you know, there's the injury,
Starting point is 00:44:17 I guess is the knock against Joe Ryan, but I kind of think he's just a super solid pitcher, and I'm not sure there should be much daylight at all between him and Bailey Ober. Let's find out, based on early 80P, Bailey Ober is 86.9. I would assume Ober's much higher. Everybody seems to.
Starting point is 00:44:40 Joe Ryan is 104.7. So about 204.7, but yeah, I could see the argument for those guys potentially being closer in ADP and ranking with Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. SP 31 through 35, you have Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grayson Rodriguez, and Carlos Ordone. Shrider, as we mentioned earlier, will be a hot topic this offseason. We know he will not be ready for opening day. He's recovering from internal brace surgery that he had on his right elbow. And frankly, Chris, we don't know what he's going to look like.
Starting point is 00:45:16 We don't have a big track record of starting pitchers returning from internal brace surgery. And we have Strider. And we might even have Otani. They never really revealed what kind of surgery Otani had. But I kind of feel like it's the internal brace. So what we do know is if Strider's right, he has SP1 upside. But will he be right? And when will he be on the mound?
Starting point is 00:45:40 Those are massive questions. Yeah, right now it's... impossible to rank him. Like we have to and so this is where we land, but he might not pitch until June. He might be terrible. Like we genuinely do not have a robust enough track record for the internal brace to say with a lot of confidence
Starting point is 00:46:02 what he's going to look like. And I tend to be a little more optimistic because the damage to his UCL last year apparently was not as severe as feared. It was not fully torn. and so I'm hopeful that this does not end up being, you know, a career defining injury, but it absolutely could be. It's well within the range of possibility.
Starting point is 00:46:25 So I really just, to a certain extent, I just throw my hands up and, again, split the difference and say, this guy could be a top five starting pitcher in baseball from the moment he debuts, and he might debut on April 15th. Right now, we just don't know. You know, he might be pitching in spring training and look awful. He might average 94 miles per hour at his fastball and just like drop like a rock. That's certainly possible, but I'm going to give him a little bit of the benefit of the doubt right now. Yeah, Strider seems like a name that could move a lot from now till when we get to March.
Starting point is 00:47:03 The ADP is 125 for Strider. If you told me he looks great in spring. They're talking about, all right, he's only going to miss a month. Maybe he's a top 100 pick. If he looks terrible like you mentioned, maybe he's close. to 200. So this is one that still could move a lot over the next couple months in Spencer Shrider. SP 36 through 40. I did want to mention, did you ask about Carlos Rodon? I did not, but you couldn't quickly talk about it. I do want to mention one thing with him, which is he was just much
Starting point is 00:47:30 better in the second half. Three ERA on the dot. It was a four-fip, so that's a little concerning. I think that was mostly due to an inflated home run rate, 12 home runs and 13 starts. I don't know how much I worry about that. But one thing I did discover at, as I was going through at the end of the season is his slider was much improved in the second half. It was a 241-X-Woba through the end of June, a 38% whiff rate in the second half since July 1st, 181-X-Waba, 40.3% whiff rate. Fastball also was better in the second half. So that is a big deal for me because Rodon has always kind of gone as his foreseamer and his especially slider go.
Starting point is 00:48:19 So I'm a little more optimistic on him as a result of that. I think the cutter is a failed experiment. I know there's a lot of, there's a theory out there that like the value in a cutter doesn't come from the cutter itself, but from the way it interacts with other pitches. Maybe the fact that the cutter was pretty mediocre helps, everything else play up. I'm not 100% sure on that, but the changeup was actually solid. No, it was really good. So I think there's a path for Carlos Rodon to be more like what he was
Starting point is 00:48:56 in the second half. The change up overall for Rodon, it was a 221 expected Wobo with a 49.5% with rate. So it was pretty awesome. While you were talking, I wanted to look up the second half stuff plus numbers on his slider. It did get a little bit better. It went from 143 in the first half to 146 and just so anyone listening stuff plus 100 is average so his although it's sliders weird like amazing yeah sliders tend to be higher on the stuff plus sketch uh spectrum but yeah he has a very good slider i don't think that's uh i don't think that's controversial sp 36 through 40 you have sunny gray jack flarity tanner bibby Shane oh mac here comes the money here we go money talk Here comes the money.
Starting point is 00:49:42 That would be Shane McClanahan and Brian Wu down at SP40. I asked Scott about McClanahan. He's another one that feels really tough to rank, Chris. Coming back from a second Tommy John surgery, kind of feels like a coin flip in terms of, you know, success rate as of now. Nathan Avaldi has been fine after a second Tommy John. He's had a great career.
Starting point is 00:50:02 And Walker Bueller, we just saw struggle massively in his first season back from a second Tommy John surgery. So Shane McClanahan, I don't, he's no different. I mean, he's, you know, it could go one and two ways. And the reason he's lower, I guess, did I, I didn't end up, there's a name missing from this discussion. Shohei Otani should probably be in like the Spencer Strider range. And that's an oversight on my part. So just bump everyone down in your mental model as we move forward.
Starting point is 00:50:35 The thing with McClellanhan and the reason I have him wrong, ranked lowest of the kind of big four injury concern guys. I'm counting DeGrom, Strider, Otani, and McClanahan, although you also have Sandy Alcantra and Garrett Cole to a certain extent. There's plenty of pitchers dealing with injuries. The reason I have McClainahan lowest is it's a second Tommy John surgery. It's a full Tommy John. And I think there is a perception of Shane McClanahan that is a little different than how
Starting point is 00:51:06 he actually pitched. The ERAs have been very good, 343, 254, 329. But when you actually look into the numbers, there have been red flags in two of the three seasons. 2022, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball by any way you want to measure. 2021, which is his rookie season. Strike rate was 27% good, but not elite. Walk rate 7.2%.
Starting point is 00:51:30 A little better than average, but not much. XERA 457. Then 2023, he has a 329, ERR. which is again very good strike rate down to 26%. That's still good, but that is far from elite at that point. And walk rate up to 9%. XERA 410. You have the expected Wobon contact has been pretty bad in two of his three seasons.
Starting point is 00:51:55 The one where it was good is the one that he was, you know, one of the best pitchers in baseball. But that's another one where I look at the track record and I think this is a guy who's been a good pitcher for the most. part, but hasn't necessarily been lights out every time out. And he's coming back from a Tommy John surgery. I just think there's a lot of reasons to be skeptical with Shane McClainahan, who, again, if he's a top 10 pitcher, I wouldn't be shocked. It just, I think there's a lot of ways it can go wrong. And now the Tampa Bay Rays have to play outdoors all next season. So George M. Steinbrenner Field,
Starting point is 00:52:34 it has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium. The humidity. there, the heat, you know, the ball should fly out. There's going to be some rain delays. So it's going to be kind of a messy season here coming up for the Tampa Bay raise. And he's a guy who's gotten hit hard in the past. That could be a bad combination. Yeah, yeah. So definitely, worth considering that as well. SP 41 through 45, you have Jared Jones, Sandy Alcansura, Codaisanga, Kevin Gosman, and Ronaldo Lopez. So Gosman is someone Scott did not have in his top 50 at all. He took a huge step back last year, 383 ERA, a 122 whip, the strikeouts came way down.
Starting point is 00:53:12 This ranking here, I mean, you don't need him to be amazing, but this is a ranking where you still think Kevin Gosman could be serviceable. Is that the case? Yeah, I mean, you know, at the beginning of the show, I said there were, I'm malleable. I'm open to being talked out and like, I don't feel good about it. No, I do think Kevin Gosman is someone I probably need to move down. I think ranking him here is just kind of baking in the possibility that he bounces back. And I do think there is that possibility.
Starting point is 00:53:44 Remember, he went into last season with that shoulder injury that he suffered in spring training, gutted it out, made 181 innings and 31 starts. He was out there, but clearly wasn't himself. The splitter especially was not nearly as effective as it's been in the past. I think there were probably some arm slots. changes there. And I think we probably need to see him in spring training and see what the stuff looks like and see because, yeah, he he dropped his arm slot a little bit, pitched a little bit more
Starting point is 00:54:19 horizontally, and that's going to hurt the splitter shape. So we'll need to see in spring training what it looks like, but I think I want to move him down from here. Yeah. People looking just at the service level numbers, the second half for Gosman, he had a 292 ERA, but that also came with a 485 X-FIP 6.8K per 9 and just an 18.8% strikeout rate. Yeah, 2 to 1K to walk ratio. Yeah, which is bad.
Starting point is 00:54:49 Very, very misleading there for Kevin Gosman. Our friend, Nick Pollock from Pitcher list, has Gosman ranked all the way down at SP 76. Nick hates spliters more than anything in the world, so that makes sense. He is completely out on Kevin Gosman. SP 46 through 50, you have Usake Kikuchi now of the Angels, followed by Luis Heel, Shane Boz, Ryan Pepio, and Seth Lugo. Three names Scott did not have in his top 50 were Heel, Boz, and Pepio. Chris, do you think Heel takes another step forward?
Starting point is 00:55:19 And we just talked about the ballpark change for Shane McClanahan. Once that came out, did you lower Pepio and Shane Boz at all? Or did you not really factor it into this ranking early on? I have not yet. And Boss admittedly is sort of a bet on him getting better. It's like a leap of faith ranking kind of. Yeah, I don't think the way he. I know the ERA actually ended up being, you know, pretty viable.
Starting point is 00:55:48 306 ERA, 362XERA as well. He was an average at best strikeout pitcher. He didn't really have a swing and miss pitch he could lean on. I'm kind of just ranking him here as a bet that, Shane Boss takes a step forward. And it's a soft ranking. I will say Pepio, I am actually pretty in on because for one thing, the one consistent throughout his major league career, which last year is most of it, but he had, you know,
Starting point is 00:56:19 pitched around in the previous two seasons, is the quality of contact has just been exceptional for Ryan Pepio. He has a 351 expected Wobon contact for his career. That's over 3,500 pitches and about 200 innings. That has been true as a starter. It's been true when he was used in relief. It's been true when his control has been bad. It's been true when his control has been great.
Starting point is 00:56:44 It's the one consistent. He's got a very good fastball that limits hard contact. Well, he has the good approach angle. Tons of whiffs with the foreseamer as well, 32% whiff rate last year. That was an elite mark. It was one of the best for any starters. and then you have the change up, which is already a good pitch,
Starting point is 00:57:04 but I think there is room for the changeup to grow as a swing and miss pitch and elevate Ryan Pepio even more. So when you talk about that park change, the fact that he limits hard contact really well, I think is a very good thing for Ryan Pepio. And I am willing to bet on further growth from Ryan Pepio. He is one of the pitcher breakouts that I'm betting on this year.
Starting point is 00:57:29 He is someone going into the offseason, I wanted to be excited about. This change to the ballpark they're going to be playing in. I think maybe it could affect someone like Pepio more than others because he is more of a flyball pitcher. Nearly 46% fly ball rate. 9.1% barrel rate ranks in the 22nd percentile. That's the weird thing about him is when he gets hit hard, he gets hit hard. He just doesn't get hit hard very often. that that's that's a fair point because home runs are inherently rare events but if you go from
Starting point is 00:58:06 you know 20 to 28 home runs allowed that's only eight pitches over the course of your whole season but it can drastically change the way the pitcher looks so i could see him being affected by that more than than you would think based on the overall quality of contact metrics um And the other thing to keep in mind is, I can't remember, we might have talked about this a little bit, but Tropicana Field, I wrote about this for the newsletter and it's on CBSSports.com now, but Tropicana Field is not just a good place because of the dimensions, the good place to pitch. It's also arguably the biggest stuff elevator of any ballpark and baseball, or at least it has been. I really want to cite the... I don't have anything on the stuff metrics, but I'll just quickly fill in some air
Starting point is 00:59:01 while you're looking for that. Over the past three seasons, Tropicana Field had the fourth highest strikeout park factor. And we've talked about hitters, you know, struggling to see the ball there. Just with the batter's eye, you know, Willie Adamas talked about.
Starting point is 00:59:16 It's tough to see the ball there. He wasn't the only one. So it is a ball point. So it is a ballpark that helps strikeouts play up. So that was another thing. It's just like these little things, little reasons to, all right, maybe you want to tick down race pitchers a little bit for the strikeouts. Now they're going to be pitching outdoors in a, you know,
Starting point is 00:59:33 a park where, you know, there's a shorter porch to right field. So as a right-handed pitcher, you're facing left-handed bats. It's just like for every one of these little things, like you've got to knock these guys down a notch. So it just worries me a little bit. And so here's the stat that I wanted to say. It's from Thomas Nesstico. at TJ Stats on social media.
Starting point is 00:59:53 And he put together a list of the opposing pitcher stuff in each ballpark. So this is taking out the stuff of the pitchers on each team. It's just looking at the opposing pitchers. So you would think that that would take out a lot of the noise, right? You're facing all 29 teams. The Rays had by far the highest opposing pitcher stuff plus metric. last season, which, and that's at their home park. So that suggests, and this is a stat that does not have a lot of movement.
Starting point is 01:00:28 Most teams are with right around 100. They're at 102.3. The second place team was 101.9. So there is evidence that the ball moves differently in Tampa, in Tropicana Field. I don't know if it's a combination of, a moist environment, but being played indoors. I'm not sure what it is. But this is odd even, like, the lights and the batters eye would not play into this.
Starting point is 01:00:58 This is just how the pitches move themselves. The pitches moved in an advantageous way. And that is probably why you get more strikeouts. It's probably why despite having somewhat favorable home dimensions, Tropicana has played as a pitcher's park. So there's a lot of uncertainty with every race pitcher. And I think being skeptical of them all is a reasonable approach. And maybe I'll get there.
Starting point is 01:01:27 Maybe that'll be one of the changes that I make as we get through this process. I think there's a chance that the raise at Steinbrenner Field are like one of the top five hitting environments of baseball. between short porches. I know it's deep power alleys, but that'll inflate babbip, if anything. Short porches for home runs, weather should be very good. And just the ballparks we talked about this
Starting point is 01:01:54 in a recent episode, but those rain delays are going to knock, I don't know, six starts over the course of the season where a pitcher who you hope would go five innings ends up going two because of the rain. Like that's going to happen a few times next year. We don't know who that's going to affect,
Starting point is 01:02:13 but it's going to impact the race pitchers on the whole. So I think in every direction, the race moving their home park is pretty bad news for their pitching staff. And maybe I'm too optimistic about Pepio and Boz and McClanahan and Taj Bradley even, who's not in the top 50. Yeah, I'm open to that. All right. Well, there you have it.
Starting point is 01:02:36 Chris's top 50 starting pitchers, if you want to scrutinize, well, you know, where to find him. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. Thanksgiving is tomorrow. So enjoy the holiday. Happy anniversary to you, Chris. So there you go. Lots going on. But yes, thank you to all the listeners for your support and obviously listening throughout the entire year. We're obviously very thankful for you. We're going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a high star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again next week. Bye-bye.

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