Fantasy Baseball Today - Chris Sale's Elbow, All-Rookie Team, Best and Worst Picks of Rounds 10-12 (03/20 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 20, 2020

We discuss the long-term ramifications of Chris Sale's Tommy John surgery, and then break down Scott White's All-Rookie team. Which rookies should you make sure are on your roster for 2020? We go through each position for Scott's top rookie. (23:00) Then, we go through Rounds 10 through 12 and pick our favorite — hello, Frankie Montas, Miguel Sano, and Cavan Biggio — and picks we don't like — Madison Bumgarner and Dinelson Lamet don't fare too well. (38:30) ... plus your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Oh, it's Kokomo Friday on the fantasy baseball today podcast. We're still doing Kokomo Fridays. And Scott White, how are you feeling on this Kokomo Friday? I am feeling fine. I'm feeling fine. This song is putting me at ease. Nice and relaxed, carefree. Totally good.

Yeah, I, uh, I've been dealing with, like, it smells like a bonfire. in my apartment like just very, very faintly and I can't feel like I went and knocked on all my neighbor's doors and asked them they also smell it but nobody has anything burning. All right, yeah. If you were just smelling it,

I'd be worried. MRI time, baby. No, my wife smelled it first. She has a much stronger sense of smell than I do. I don't know. There might be like a crayon stuck in there from when I was a kid or something but not a lot gets through. Yeah. You know, but an actual burning smell, I guess, should be worrisome too in a different way.

Yeah, I don't know. You know, because like when you live in South Florida, sometimes you get those days where it just the Everglades are on fire. And so you just smell smoke. But I don't think the Everglades are that close to Williamsburg. Yeah. So I don't know what the answer is. It's been a little confusing for me. But, you know, I'm ready. I close the windows. I'm good. You got the fresh air circulating in my house from the air conditioner, so I'm good. I'm ready to talk about multiple players having Tommy John surgery, unfortunately. We're going to get to a bold prediction from one of our listeners.

We've got some minor league news. Teams have been sending guys down to AAA. I picked out a couple of the more noteworthy names. We're going to get to your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. we're going to go through our favorite picks from rounds 10 through 12. And next week, I think, we're going to do a fictional player draft. We're going to take fictional baseball players, and we're going to draft fantasy teams out of them

and see who is the best fictional baseball player of all. Did we talk about this on the podcast or was it before we were recording? No, we were just talking. We were just, you know, talking before the podcast about it. Yeah, had some ideas. You know, fictional baseball characters like for movies and such. Yeah, yeah, books, poems. I think Casey at the bat was a poem, so we can go with that one.

Yes. You know, what we want, send in your suggestions at fantasy baseball at cbsi.com so we can build out a player pool. We're going to do this draft. And then join our Facebook group, facebook.com slash group slash fantasy baseball today. At some point, hopefully next week, we are going to do an Ask FBT Anything podcast. and that's something that we want to do pretty regularly during this, you know, at this point extended off season.

You know, try to have some fun. You can ask us fantasy baseball questions. You can ask us questions about Adam's terrible taste in music. You can ask us questions about, Scott, did you see the comment in the group the other day of it was a picture of a peep dipped in ketchup? Yes, I got tweeted that directly. It was the most offensive thing I've ever seen in my first.

life. Mm-hmm. Though the most offensive part of it was the ketchup, just to be clear. Yeah, ketchup is good on burgers. Yeah. On fries. And sometimes on hot dogs, but very sparingly. Like, nothing grosses me out more than when I'm sharing fries with someone, and they just

pour ketchup on all the fries. It just ruins everything. Ketchup is like mayonnaise, and that it definitely has a function, but you don't want to taste it too much. It needs to be kind of blended in with everything else. Hot take, I like mayonnaise more than ketchup. So, join the Facebook group. Ask FBT Anything.

We'll do that soon. And you can find out more about our opinions about ketchup and mayonnaise and peeps. But first, we're going to do our email of the day. Hey, Connor, Tickey, G Baby, and Kofi. I believe that is from the movie Hardball. Right? That was what it was called. with Keanu Reeves?

Yes. Yeah. I think G-Baby is the one who dies. He sings the Torres B-I-G song. It's a very moving scene. I actually like that movie. I haven't seen it in like 15 years, but I remember liking it.

I watched it way back in the day. Well, I was at work late at night, writing player updates. Back in the days when we wrote player updates ourselves. Late one night, I had it on TV. and had, you know, it was a little distracting. I don't know why I had it on, but that is my experience watching Hardball.

I watched most of the TNT show Falling Skies that way, just doing those player updates. But we do have to actually talk about something real. Breaking news, Chris Sale will be undergoing Tommy John's surgery. And in other news, he may be ready for the start of the season. Sorry, just a grumpy baseball fan that misses the game. On a real note, what is Chris Sale's wrestling? of career outlook after this injury. He'll be 32 by the time he sees a mound again.

And there were signs of decline before this. How about his fantasy value, his dynasty value? Well, I think it's reasonable to assume he wasn't quite at full health last year. I mean, that's kind of why he had that delayed start to spring training. So I don't know how clear the signs of decline are. Last year was a very weird year. obviously, where it was like stretches where he looked totally overpowering and stretches where he looked way too hitable. And that's why he's been such a tricky player to evaluate. I'm hopeful this explains much of that.

32 is getting up there. That's how old he'll be early in 2021. And yes, I assume by the time he's actually pitching in 2021, he'll, you know, he'll have already, he'll have already turned 32. And that's getting up there. but this is this is still a player whose track record is basically unblemished from the first time he became a starter. He was one of the best starters in the game. I think he's going to stay good late in his career, late into his career, probably.

Hopefully, I shouldn't say probably, but hopefully give us three or four more good years after he comes back. I don't know that I'd necessarily be looking to buy him right now in a dynasty league but I'd at least inquire because the sale owner right now might be so frustrated that he's just willing to look to willing to dump him for whatever and that's the scenario you want to capitalize on I'm trying to find some who would you rather have in a dynasty league right now I offer you to Nelson Lamat for your Chris sale what do you say I, I, it would, look, it would depend to some extent on what my intentions were in 2020.

How much 2020 I thought there was going to be. I think I'd be inclined to do it. I generally, I generally think long term with any dynasty move, and I understand Sale being the older guy, how is that a long-term move? Well, obviously because we're punting on 2020 with him. but Del Nelson LeMette is mostly theoretical at this point and when you have somebody as high end as sale you don't you prioritize that over something theoretical. What about Trevor Bauer for Chris Sale? Is that an easy one?

Yeah, I think I'd stick with Bauer in that scenario. I mean, LeBette was good. LeBette is pretty much right at that line if we're just comparing pitcher to pitcher. Okay, yeah, I mean I have real questions about how Chris Sale is going to age but you also have to counterbalance that with the fact that there have been people who have said he couldn't be a starter for about seven years. And they were pretty much wrong all the time. I'm sure there's someone who in like 2011 said Chris Sale will never hold up as a starter who's doing a victory dance right now. But for the most part, he really answered any of those questions.

And this is just normally, like he's a guy who looks weird when he pitches. He's so skinny. It looks like there's so much torque on his elbow. but I mean, you make it to 30 without having Tom and John's surgery. He's nearly had a Hall of Fame career already. I'm not saying if he retired today, he'd be in the Hall of Fame. But anybody who's saying...

He has the best track-out-to-lock ratio ever. Yeah, anybody who's patting himself on the back right now for knowing the mechanics would eventually break down is, I think, missing the larger point. Yeah, but I do have a question about how he's going to age just because he does have a relatively limited repertoire. You know, last year we saw, you know, what old pitchers do as they age, well, what pitchers do as they get older,

is they almost across the board with the exception of Bartolo, Cologne, and Lance Lynn, basically. They throw their fastballs less and they rely on their secondary pitches more. In Chris Sale's case, that's what we started to see last year, and the swings and misses were still there, but he got hit really hard. And so I do wonder whether he might reach a point of diminishing returns because it's really, he has a change up, but it's really the slider and fastball. Last season he used his change up more, but that was mostly Adam Messese. I don't know if that's necessarily a great thing for him. So I'm a little worried about how he's going to look heading into his mid-30s.

So yeah, I think I would rather have him in a Dynasty League than Lamet, but that's because I'm just kind of skeptical of, of Lament ever actually turning into a thing. The Red Sox don't really have any potential replacements who might be fantasy relevant this year, right? No. This gives Colin McHugh a longer-term path than the rotation, and he's been fantasy relevant off and on over the years. Really good in 2018, but that was as a reliever.

He had like a 180 ERA and 11K per 9. Oh, the years before that as a starter. I mean, the strikeout rates don't look good by our interpretation today, but no, he was definitely, he definitely had helium those early years starting for the Astros. And if you go back and look at those few starts he had early last year with the Astros before moving back to the bullpen, I think he had three starts with nine strikeouts or, it actually was an interesting little run he had. I forgot all about it, how many good starts McHugh put together early last year. I'm not totally riding him off, but he's coming off an elbow surgery himself, and of course the track record is spotty, definitely a situation where he'll need to prove it before we're pursuing him in fantasy.

Yeah, the other potential options who could join the Red Sox rotation, Brian Johnson, who's a former top prospect that hasn't really done much, and Ryan Weber, both of them struggled last year. I don't think there's much reason to be optimistic about those guys. Another guy who had Tommy John surgery, unfortunately, Tyler Beattie, for the San Francisco Giants. He was someone who actually I liked a decent amount as a sleeper. I think I included him in my deep sleepers

after 300 overall in ADP that I wrote earlier in February. He's got really good secondary stuff, but he'll now be 28 the next time we see him probably, maybe 27, and doesn't really have a track record in the majors to speak of. So disappointing that we didn't get to see him pitch this, here I had some excitement for him. Yeah, you weren't alone there. You weren't alone there.

He had three pitches with a really good swinging strike rate and that's, if you have control, that's a really good setup, a really good foundation for being a successful pitcher. And part of what's held him

back over the years, he's a former first round pick beat he is. And part of what's held him back is just the giants with all the different regime changes, they kind of confused him in terms of pitch selection. He kept emphasizing different pitches over others, and I think he was finally in a place where he understood what his best pitches were

and what he needed to emphasize and was maybe poised to break out. Now it'll have to be another Frankie Montas situation where he's breaking out in his late 20s, and you can't say for sure he'll even get the opportunity at that point. All right, we've got a bold prediction from at Platinum, Spurr, who's sent to Adamazer, Kyle Tucker becomes a 30-30 guy and plays every day. You know, I think we, uh, did we talk about the Kyle Tucker versus Louise Robert conversation on the podcast

recently? I believe we did. I believe so. And if you look at what they, what Tucker has done since getting to AAA and what Robert did last year, um, it's pretty close. You know, they're both right around 30 homers, right around 30 steals per 150 games. Similar batting average. I know Tucker, there's a little bit of prospect fatigue with him because we've been hearing about him for, you know, this is now the third season when we were hoping that Kyle Tucker would become a fantasy irrelevant player. And he wasn't as good at AAA last year. But he wouldn't be the first player to have to go to a level in the minors for the second time through no false.

of his own and just kind of get a little bored with it. And he was still really good. Like you say he wasn't as good. He had a 30-30 season. He hit 270. It's really the only disappointing thing about him. But between the majors and the minors, I think he had something like 38 homers and 34 steals or something like that.

It was a really great season. He had, in September in the majors, Kyle Tucker was five for five and stolen basis just in one month's time and that's for a very what was a very sabermetrically inclined organization i'm sure they still will be but now they have dusty baker as their manager and he's more of an old school guy who might even be willing to let tucker run all the more but the point is he's already shown tucker has that uh that he's willing and able of running in the majors and that's that's part of the concern with louise robert is you just Don't know what the white socks are going to let them do.

Right. Right. Don't know what you go. The stolen base totals are one of the least reliable going from the minors to the majors. Because since minors are mostly about development, players are generally, well, I don't want to speak beyond my knowledge level. But it just seems looking at the numbers and it just makes sense thinking it through. Players should be encouraged to run as often as they need to, just to see if that's going to be a viable part of their skill set. you know but once they get to the majors it's about winning obviously and so it doesn't happen as much

uh i i'm not sure if you actually got to the the point between that you that you like to make between tucker and robert um but i generally agree with you if if we know kyle tucker's playing every day that's the biggest advantage robert has over him right now is we know he's playing every day and nothing can happen without playing time. But if we were assured Tucker was playing every day, I would bet on him having better numbers than Robert, too, as I think you've said before that you would. Yeah, I mean, I did a Twitter poll. This must have been about a week ago, which, you know, it feels like we've lived several years in the last week or so. But it was basically asking who had more upside Luis Robert or Kyle Tucker. And most of the most of the other than, you

of the people said Louise Robert, and I just, I think people are kind of forgetting what Tucker's skill set is. It's entirely possible. We're talking about him a year from now as a potential first round pick. That's the kind of skill set he has. It's so conducive for fantasy value that he could be a really special player. So 30-30, as a bold prediction, a little bold, but not out of the question. Not at all out of the question. Nope, not at all. All right, some other news. Rich Hill still on track to return in June.

That was someone we talked about a little bit on Wednesday's podcast. And, you know, that might be opening day, as we said on Wednesday. So it's a good sign that he's, you know, improving as expected. Some other news series that were scheduled to be played in Puerto Rico and San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Mexico City have been canceled. They will not be making those up. That's unfortunate. it. Email of the day number two from Chris, not me. Chris writes in, Adam, please do not

perpetuate the corporate fabricated debate of Velvita versus Kraft. They are both owned by the same company. Craft. Also, the answer is obviously Velvita. That's what I thought, actually. I almost said it, but I wasn't sure. I just, they're not, in my mind, they're like, we don't want to get too far into this, but they're not comparable in my mind. They're just, they're doing. They're doing separate things. Right. Have you ever tried melting a craft single to make like, yeah, it doesn't work? Nacho cheese or whatever. Yeah, it's gross. And look, I like American cheese. On a burger, I think American cheese is the best possible burger. My grilled cheese is always one slice of craft single, one slice of some Munster. So don't get me wrong. I like an American

cheese. But, you know, it, it's like comparing Kyle Tucker and Luis Arias. You know, they're just, they're doing separate they're maybe nick magical you know they're just doing separate things they're both baseball players they're both cheeses but they're in separate fields all right and then some other than are they cheeses though american i think american cheese is actually like cheese product i don't think they're like definitely is yeah i think they're not legally allowed to call it cheese no that's why they call them craft singles right uh so minor league The Braves option, Tuki Toussaint to AAA. The Giants option, Sean Anderson to AAA.

That one actually, I think if you listen to our relief pitcher preview, I think he was the guy we mentioned as the likely Giants closer. So, you know, what I've seen over the last month or so is that as long as Tony Watson is healthy, he's going to be the closer. He just wasn't healthy yet. I had not seen anything like that. And Gabe Kepler is notoriously. non-committal about how he handles the ninth.

But Tony Watson's the most established guy in that bullpen, so it would make sense. Yep. Orioles option Ryan Mountcastle to AAA. I mean, a lot of this is, you know, they're not actually going to AAA. A lot of this is paperwork. But Mountcastle, someone you mentioned in your column on cbsports.com today,

You did an all-rooky team, the players at each position who you think have the best chance to make a fantasy impact. Was he on the all-ricky team or was on the others receiving votes maybe? Nope, he was the first baseman on the all-rooky team. Yeah, and what you wrote about him, his debut is just a matter of finding him a position and his easy line drive stroke. Makes for a fine Nick Castellanos comp. Hit 312 last season with 25 homers, 871 OPS. That would have been a weird way to say a player's OPS. So he had a really good season, good fantasy potential.

We'll see what happens as we get closer to the eventual start of the season, you know, whether they opt to actually break whatever. Would it be camp, break camp, go into opening day with him whenever that does happen? Yeah. That's still a possibility. Yeah, I don't, I don't think, I don't think, I don't think, it's a possibility really just because I mean

Mountcastle was the International League MVP last year so even in a year where a lot of people were putting up big numbers in AAA he was considered the most representative among them he would have already gotten called up I'm sure if the

Orioles weren't terrible and they're not really in a position where they need to force the issue there but there's it doesn't seem like there's a lot to gain from him being in the minor so I suspect it'll be once they've secured that extra year of playing time that he'll be up. Now it's it's questionable exactly how much time will have to pass because

last I just don't know. What was that? We just don't know what the service time's going to look like. Right. That's actually being negotiated. That's part of the negotiation happening between MLB and the Players Association because normally I think it's 182 games. games.

182 days. Is a season. Right. And so if it's less than like 173 or something, I don't know the exact numbers, but it's, that's why it tends to happen around mid-April when a guy gets called up. You know, the year of service time has already been, the extra year has already been secured. So, you know, it'll probably be less than like two weeks or whatever. But, you know, who knows if we'll even have a season.

right? We will. I have faith. We will? Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. No, I don't know. I hope so. So let's actually talk about your all-ro rookie team. It's not in the notes, but let's get into it. Let's go around the horn. Sean Murphy, your top rookie catcher. Where do you have Sean Murphy rank? He's a top 10 catcher for you, right? I believe he is 12, actually. Sean Murphy had 151 at Bats at AAA last season, had a huge partial season. 964 OPS, really good defensive player. I did this Prospects-only draft with Baseball Prospectus. I think it was 16 people.

And he was my third round pick. And I was really thrilled to get him there because he's so close to the majors, even though he's a little older. But someone that you're drafting as a starting catcher for fantasy in 2020. Yeah, I mean, athletics clearly have a lot of confidence in him. As they were fighting for a wild card spot down the stretch last year, they made him their primary catchers.

So that's rare. And High marks defensively, but he's really come around as a hitter the past couple of years has always had good plate discipline, good strikeout rate especially. But the powers really, he's really come into power the last couple years. And his minor league track record actually looks pretty similar to guys like Danny Jansen and Carson Kelly, who we like as sleepers this year.

Yep. So it's a matter of staying healthy partially. He's missed some time in the past couple years with injuries, but he should play a lot when he is healthy. And should be productive enough to be a worthy starter at that position. Yeah, he did have, I believe, knee surgery last season dealt with a torn meniscus and did have a cleanup operation this offseason. wasn't a serious operation, but just something to keep in mind. He has had any troubles. First base, Ryan Mountcastles, we already talked about. Second base, Gavin Lux. And he's a really interesting one. Clearly, there's a lot to like about him. He was dominant. He was in double A first,

right? And put up huge numbers. It was before he even got to AAA with the juice ball. Yes. The only thing, the only quite, well, there's two questions for me. There's the question of whether he's going to play every day, which for the Dodgers is impossible to say right now. And then the other real question for me is can he hit lefties? He did a little bit in the minors last year, but it came with like a 400 babbip. The one thing he did start doing last season for the first time against lefties was hit for some power. He struck out like 31% of the time, but he did have an ISO right around 200, that can play. When we're talking about left-hand of batters,

if you're really, really good against right-ease, you just have to be good enough against lefties to keep an embarrassment, basically. Yeah, good enough to not force your team to bench you. And that's a question with him. Over the last three seasons, he's hit 226 with a 292 on base and a 328 slugging against left-handed pitching in the minors. So it's a significant question, but the potential is obvious.

Yes, it's kind of a question of how willing the Dodgers are to sacrifice development for the sake of winning now, because they have a roster full of platoon bats and Chris Taylor getting him at bats against lefties at second base. this seems like an obvious way to do that. But how invested are they in luck? So we kept hearing this offseason that teams kept asking for Lux and trades, and Francisco Lendor trade and whatever else. And the Dodgers kept saying, no, it sounds like they're pretty committed to this guy, which would mean playing him as regularly as possible, I would think.

But it does remain to be seen. I have noticed that Lux has been slipping in drafts. Like, people seem less eager to take him now, which I don't know. I don't know. I was never that eager to take him. So I don't know that my opinion's changed. I'm just curious why it seems like the masses as a whole are kind of cooling on him. I think there was an expectation after the end of last season when he really was playing close to every day,

that he was just locked into an everyday role. And then as camp started, it started to seem more likely that he was potentially being going to be used as a platoon bat. I think that's where that came from. Yeah, but... It would have been clear if they had traded Jock Peterson.

They followed through on that because that would have pretty much required Bellinger to be in the outfield all the time. But now that's... You know, Monty can still play second sometimes. So who knows. All right. Third baseman, Alec Baum.

He's another guy drafted in that baseball prospectus. Prospectus' prospects only draft. I love Baum. I love Baum so much. You like him way more than anyone else because I think I took him in like the, I might have taken him in the fourth round in that one. Yeah. And you have him as a top 12 overall prospect for coming into 2020.

And the things you like about him, it starts with the bat, control. He doesn't strike out very much. He's a really big dude, but he doesn't strike out much. And in 2019, he started to grow into the raw power a little bit. He's always been someone that they've liked the raw power, not so much the end game yet. But he started to grow into that, hit 21 homers and 475 at bats. Terrific plate discipline. He was the third overall pick in 2018. That alone Makes it confusing why he doesn't get more prospect high But I don't want to overstate it

I mean baseball America ranked of 28th overall MLB.com 30th overall It's it's not like he's It's not like he's not a top prospect But for me he's top 10 Especially given how close he is Especially given how safe the profile looks He's a tough fantasy prospect though

Because he doesn't have any speed to speak of And he plays the deepest position on the field third base. People hate when I make, when I compare prospects to superstars, because obviously the probability of any prospect developing into a superstar is low. Fewer will. Fewer won't do that than will. But picking and choosing which ones will is exceedingly difficult.

So I like to think in terms of upside. And I can see Alec bomb blossoming into an Anthony Rendon type. Like that doesn't seem far-fetched to me. Yeah, yeah. One I always think of when I talk about third baseman with plus power and good plate discipline is Adrian Beltray. Yeah. That's obviously he's going to be a first battle at Hall of Famer, but... Sure, sure.

And then shortstop, likely going to play at third base, Carter Keybun, for the Washington Nationals, expected to be their opening day third baseman. I don't know that everybody's being fair to hear. fair to him either, which isn't to say I'm drafting him everywhere, I'm not, but in leagues that go on long enough, like those 15-team Rota leagues, I have been drafting them close to everywhere as a bench option.

This is another guy, consensus top 25 prospect overall, who already is more or less assured the playing time, and total disinterest. I imagine if he hadn't gotten called up last April, yes, 100%. And it looks, so bad, obviously a rush

job because Trey Turner got hurt. They delayed it for a while, but I just think they got, we're getting so little production, they figured what the heck. He was terrible. Kibum was last April, but it's unfair to downgrade him based on that, especially since he went back to AAA

and did the kinds of things he was supposed to do. Yeah, no, 100%. If he hadn't been called up to the majors, there'd be a lot more hype around him. I'm trying to figure out, find where he went in that draft that I've been talking about. But let's just move on to Luis Robert. I don't think we need to talk too much about him. We know all about him. He's a

top 100 pick in ADP right now. Carter Keyboom, by the way, 324 in ADP. So going undrafted in your standard 12 team mixed league. Great value there. Yep. Just stash him away on your bench, see what happens. Yeah, Luis Robert, incredibly loud tools, might be the kind of guy who, it just doesn't matter if he doesn't have great plate discipline. He could be, you know, the kind of guy who hits 300 even while striking out. And he doesn't strike out an irregular amount of time. You know, he 129 in about 550 plate appearances last season. The real thing is he just doesn't walk. I think he's had like a 5% walk rate for his minor league career.

that's tougher because that can get exposed when you're when you're that aggressive that's where I think the concerns come from right yeah with we're still talking about Robert right right I have I have concerns what what his batting average is going to look like this year I have concerns like we talked about earlier whether he's going to be just a okay steel source or a big steel source his best case in error is first round. We're drafted him in the first round next year. Yeah, so that's, that obviously factors in,

and that's why everybody should be willing to draft him at a point. But I think his most likely scenario is a batting average 250 or lower with pretty good home run total, but I wouldn't count on more than like 12 to 15 steals. Yeah, the steals are where, I think, if he's going to be a 25 steel, guy, then the margin for error becomes a lot less slim. Then it's, it's a lot easier to see him becoming, even if he hits 250, even if he hits 240, if he steals 25 bases and his 20 homes. I shouldn't say, I shouldn't say most likely scenarios, 250 or lower. Most likely scenario is probably like 260, but then there's downside for less than that. Yeah, I mean, there's downside that he

could be sent down. And that's true with any prospect. Sure. Sure. Dylan Carlson, another guy who really good power speed combination. We talked a little bit about him either yesterday, I think it was yesterday's podcast, Thursday's podcast. And the comparison we made if he played the full season was something like what Yassie L. Puig did last season,

which was batting average in the 265 range, 25-ish homers, 20-ish steals. And he was someone who might have been forcing his way into an everyday job with his spring training. It was still a long shot, but... Yeah. Yeah.

And that Yasio Puik comp, that's kind of what I'm thinking as a likely, hopeful scenario. I mean, best case is much higher than that. Carlson does seem like the sort of prospect who could just come up and take the league by storm. So he's...

I think he's definitely shortened his timetable based on how he was looking in spring training. how he was the kinds of things Cardinals leadership was saying about him. You know, if it doesn't work out for him, like if Tyler O'Neill sows things up in left field, finally, Dexter Fowler, there's not much left there and right. There's definitely a path for Carlson. And there's really not a lot of weaknesses in his game.

Even to, like he's a switch hitter. So even if you're talking about handedness and platoon possibilities, kind of the reason he broke out last year is he figured out how to hit from the left side of the plate so he's he's a very well-rounded player and then the last outfielder joe adele he's another guy who if it weren't for injuries last season he might have already gotten the call up if it weren't for injuries last season he might have he might be the angels uh you know opening day would it be right field, I guess. But he did get hurt. He's gotten hurt a few times in the minors now, so we don't have a huge track record for him, struggled with contact last season in AAA, but didn't have that issue

in the Arizona Fall League. And so, you know, that's a good sign. I think he's a guy who, in a normal season, would be up by May. Yeah, there's a good chance. He'll have to, he'll have to, he'll have to, to show it at AAA. That's the thing. He was just, especially considering it was the PCL with the juiced balls and whatever else. That was a big disappointment

the way he performed there the last month and a half or whatever it was. So he'll have to show it first. But certainly, he's one of those guys who's been considered on elite prospect from the day he was drafted. So there's certainly a lot of confidence in him still, despite that poor showing.

And then Nick Sollack, who you like quite a bit as a likely multi-eligible across-the-board kind of player. 27 homers, five stolen bases last season in the minors. How are you willing to draft Solac? He's a late pick, but he's a late pick. I try to get with consistency. Part of the problem is he's DH only now. So, like, if you're a late pick. If you're talking about an auction scenario where you can't fill bench spots until you fill your lineup spots,

and you've already got Jordan Alvarez or Nelson Cruz, where you're just out of luck. Solac's probably going to be triple eligible by the time season's done, but he's age only right now, so that's just the way it is. But yeah, it's like, I don't know, in the 20 to 25 round range of a Roto League with all those lineup spots to fill, Solac is on quite a few teams of mine. All right, and let's move on to the best and worst picks from each round. We've gone through rounds one through nine already this week. Let's go 10 through 12 today.

And so that means, I'm trying to do the math in my head. It means 109th overall is the first pick in this round. And this is a good round. I like this round. This round has a lot of players that you and I both like. You love Mitch Garver. I would imagine he's going to be one of your favorite picks. We both love Frankie Montas, Miguel Sineau, Zach Gallen.

My favorites are Frankie Montas, Zach Allen, and Edwin Diaz. And, you know, my least favorite picks through a lot of the earlier rounds have been relievers. So this is one where Edwin Diaz was the number one closer coming into last season. He had a terrible, terrible season. But I'm willing to take him at a 70-pick discount from Josh Hader, because he could be just as good as Josh Hater. It's one of those gambles where we'll know pretty early on, right? Whether he's going to sink or swim.

If he has a dominant April, that's probably it. He's probably sewn up the job for the rest of the year at that point and is on a path to becoming a top five closer again. But if he gives up a couple home runs the first week of the season, they could remove him right then and it's over. but I like taking the chance of that price I also like Michael Brantley at 120 but

I would guess you and I both agree Frankie Montas is the best pick here at 112 overall yeah yeah so what range what range of picks are we looking at 108 through 120 so we've got Andrew Benintendi

Michael Conforto Mitch Garver Frankie Montas Wilson Contreras Carlos Carrasco Miguel Sineau Madison Bumgarner, Trey Mancini, obviously Trey Mancini now, you know, up in the air. Zach Gallen, Edwin Diaz, and Michael Brantley. I'm surprised you didn't take Gallen. Don't you like Gallen more than Frankie Montas?

Are we just putting on a show for us yesterday? No, no. For me, it was Frankie Montas. My three picks, my columns up on CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. You can also find it at Twitter.com slash C-Tower C-Betour. or any fine CBS sports retailer. And my three favorite picks were Gallin,

Diaz, and Montas. You know, Galen's going six picks later than Montas. Not really a difference. I like a lot of picks in this range, to be honest. This is a good round. This is a part of the draft where I'm often torn which direction to go. If I already have my four starting pitchers,

I'm probably passing up Frankie Montas and Zach Galen here. If I don't, I'm absolutely taking them. That's priority number one. I have a lot of shares of Mitch Garver. He is probably the catcher I'm most invested in. He was by far and away the best on a per game basis at the position last year. Maybe it was a fluke. Seems well worth the gamble at this point. If I'm looking to make up ground in power, Miguel Sinell might be the first player I'm looking at here. I think he's one of the five players most likely to hit 50 home runs this year. And the others go well before this especially if we're assuming

Aaron Judge is, if we're now assuming Aaron Judge is going to be healthy for opening day. So Suno is seems like a really good pick here too. And if I mentioned Garver, I should mention Wilson Contreras too. I actually rank Contreras higher. Though usually

my cue to take Garver is when Grundal and Contreras go. Yeah, I think Montas and Galen both have top 15 starting pitcher potential. The only, the reason I like down a little more is I'm more sure he can do the workload than Montas. I actually don't know if Montas can do the workload. So that's the other thing to keep in mind. The worst picks in this range seem fairly obvious to me as well. And I can't imagine you'll disagree much with Mattson

Bumgarner and Andrew Ben and Tendi. They're both on my bust list. Yep. So I do not disagree. And, you know, don't really need to go too in depth on that. But basically, Bumgarner has been really, really bad outside of San Francisco two years in a row now. Basically ever since that... Dirt bike. Dirt bike, the motocross accident. Here he is. Here he is corraling bulls in his spare time.

That's one that's just like... It's not hard to imagine the reaction to those stories being a lot different if it wasn't someone like Madison Bumgarner who has all the World Series and the clutch and the fiery competitor. If it was a different player, that would be viewed a lot differently. If he was regarded as a notorious, like, choker, like, if it was Clayton Kershaw? It was Carlos Beltran. You know, so, yeah.

Beltrot's considered clutch, right? I think the strikeout looking against Adam Wainwright to end the NLCS is a bigger part of people's memories than the Houston Astros playoff run. Okay. The first Houston Astros

playoff run. I definitely go to the Houston Astros playoff run when I think about when was that? What year was that? The year...

05, wasn't it? Or 04? Or 04? Because that's who... Isn't that who the Red Sox beat in the... Oh no. It was 05.

Ah, I can't remember now. No, the... O5 was the White Sox. White Sox against two, though. The Astros, right? Honestly, I have no memories of the 2005 World Series. That was right during Hurricane Wilma. We lost power.

So I have no memory. Like literally zero memory of that World Series. I could not tell you. It was 05. Because I remember rookie Brian McCann had a big home run in that series against the Astros. Oh, yeah. They had that like 20. That would have been 05.

They had that like 20 game, 20-any. game between the Braves and Astros that year, right? Well, let's move on to round 11. That's a difficult memory. My favorite, my favorite picks around 11. Kevin Bigeo and Hazer's Luzardo, they both have huge question marks. Kevin Bizio, it's about the contact rate and the strikeout rate. Lazzardo, it's just about staying healthy.

If Luzardo stays healthy, I think he's going to be a really, really good fantasy pitcher right away. it's a question of how much he's going to pitch and a question of how long he can stay healthy. But when he's on the mound, I think he will be one of the 20 best pitchers in Venice. Kevin Bizio, I think he needs to follow the Yuan Moncada path, and I think he needs to be a more aggressive hitter. He had one of the low,

I think the lowest or the second lowest swing rate in baseball last season, but there's speed, there's power, there's the potential for a really good lineup. So both of those guys I love betting on in the round of. 11 range. And let's just go through the rest of the players in this range before you give your take. Ken Giles, Eduardo Rodriguez, Denelson Lament, Hyunjun Riu, Carlos Santana, Kavana, Kavun Bizio, Lance Lin, Max Kepler, Shohei Otani, Max Fried, Jesus Lazzardo, and Yuli Gurriel. Who's your favorite pick in this range?

My favorite pick of this group is probably Lance Lynn. Oh, that's boring. Is it? Pick someone young. Lance Lynn's old enough to be your dad. The thing is, I don't think Lance Lynn is boring at all. He's not old enough to be my dad. He's probably the same age.

He's three years younger than me. Fine, he's old enough to be my dad. Okay. That's not true either, but okay. He had 246 strikeouts last year. It's a lot of strikeouts. It's a crazy number of strikeouts. And I understand it kind of came out of nowhere.

But it feels like technically Matthew Boyd is probably the last chance for an elite strikeout total. I'm not talking rate, but elite strikeout total. Yeah, I mean, Boyd is like four rounds after this, I think. Yeah. But Lance Lynn, among those that don't have. huge performance concerns like Boyd does with all the home runs is among the 37 which is now 36 because for sale is out so among the 36 Lance Lynn is that's kind of your last chance to grab one so even if I have four I'm really tempted to take Lance Lynn here because that's where

I see the tear drop there aren't many picks in this range that I don't like and it gets harder to do picks you don't like as you get later in the draft because the risk is a lot lower. I haven't drafted to Nelson LeMette. He kind of seems like a Chris Towers type of pitcher, but I just, I've been burned by the two pitch righty before, and I just, I think he's going to struggle keeping the ball in the yard too much to ever live up to the kind of expectations people have here. There are plenty of pitchers going behind him who I like more. That's probably in this range the pick that I like the least. What about you?

I have yet to draft him. So I would agree. If I'm saying Lance Lynn is the end of the tier, I'm not really looking to draft from the next tier as soon as that

previous tier depletes. So I like Lamet in theory. I like Max Fried in theory. I've talked about Max Fried a lot as a breakout candidate. Both of these two are in my breakout candidates column. I've yet to draft either them just because I feel like other people in the draft are presuming something that I'm just hopeful for.

All right, let's move on to round 12 to finish off today's version of this. And that starts with Danny Santana, Ryssel Iglesias, Fran Mill Reyes, Corey Seeger, Tommy Edmund and Craig Kimbril, Kyle Hendrix, Oscar Mercado, Brandon Workman, David Dahl, Hectorneras, Kyle Schwerber, and David Price. Now, it ends with Kyle Schwaber. Excuse me. David Price is my favorite for the 15th round or the 13th round. So we'll get to that on Monday. We'll get to that soon, yes. But my favorite picks in this round are in the 12th round are going back to back, 135th and 136th overall. I love Fran Milraeus and I love Corey Seeger. We've talked a ton about Corey Seeger. I don't know how much more we need to talk about him this offseason. But basically he got off to a miserable start, was really bad in 80s.

April, like a sub-650 OPS. And basically from that point on, he hit like the Corey Seeger we've come to expect. 290 batting average range, 25 to 30 homer pace, ton of runs, ton of RBIs. And I think there's room to grow from there. He still needs to optimize his launch angle. You know, he still hits a few too many balls on the ground to really tap into his power. but I don't think people realize like Corey Seeger's six foot four and he's like 220 pounds. He's a giant dude. He's like the same size as a guy like Freddie Freeman.

And if you compare what they've done through their age 25 seasons, it's very similar to Freddie Freeman. Corey Seeger was actually better. And, you know, that age 26 season is when Freddie Freeman stopped hitting the ball on the ground so much, started hitting the ball in the air, and turned that raw power into actual in-game production. It's not a guarantee Corey Seeger does it. but the upside is so high in the 12th round that it wouldn't shock me if we're talking about him as a top 40 pick next year.

It's a miracle he's going this late. Yeah. Based on how, I mean, I'm sure he wouldn't see it that way because he's had a tough path to get here. But based on where he was going just a couple years ago, if you had told me you'd be able to get him in the round 10 through 12 range. Like, I just wouldn't believe it. I mean, this was a rising star on the level of, like, Francisco Lindor. And this is a must. This is a must.

Usually when I haven't gotten him here, it's just because you've beaten me to him. If it's to fill a utility spot, not even shortstop, it's something I'm looking to do. Yeah, and part of the issue is, especially in a points league, it just gets really hard to take a shortstop this late, because it usually means so many short stops have gone off the board. it usually means you're using your utility spot and that's where it gets difficult. But in a roto league and that's what these ADPs are based off of these roto leagues around the industry,

you know, Corey Seeger as your middle infielder feels like a cheat code. But I'm saying I'm willing to do it for the utility spot because I think the upside is that high. So I agree. To me he's the clear favorite among this group. In fact, I usually end up taking

him before it even gets to this group just because I don't want to risk missing him. And then Framoreas, like I said, he's another one of my favorites. It's, he feels like he's still a work in progress, and he hit 37 home runs in, you know, slightly less than full-time playing time last season. That tells you how high the upside is, at least in my eyes. You know, I think a lot of people in the industry probably think he's pretty close to his ceiling, but, you know, if he shaves off a couple points from his strikeout rate, he's got raw power to match basically anyone in the league. You know, his average exit velocity is elite.

It's in that, you know, it's not quite the prime John Carlos Stanton Aaron Judge range, but it's that tier below. It hits the ball incredibly hard. Yeah, he strikes out a lot, 28%, but it's not Joey Gallo range. And if there are five players, like I was saying earlier, with the potential to hit 50 plus home runs, he might be number six. Yeah, I mean, he had the 10th highest home run to a bat ratio of any player in baseball. And that obviously counts strikeouts. He does strike out a lot. But if he could manage to get that strikeout rate to the 250 or the 25% range, I think you're looking at the potential for a 270 hit or a 270 hit or, with 45 home runs. Yeah.

I really, like, that's not that different. My expectations for Fran Mill Reyes aren't that different from, I think, what most people are expecting for Matt Olson. Ooh, Matt Olson. I may be underestimating how many players can do that. I keep thinking of more. Potential 50 homer guys.

Well, there's, like, potential, and then there's, like, realistic potential. Like, Fran Mill Reyes has the potential to do it, but, like, he needs to hit the ball in the air more. He needs to strike out less. He had 37 home runs last year, and that was with him not always playing every day. But then you have, like, Giancarlo Stanton has done it before.

Aaron Judge has done it before. Pete Alonzo has done it before. Miguel Snow was on pace for it last year. Those guys don't need to improve to get there. Framil Reyes needs to improve to get there. I think Matt Olson probably needs to improve to get there. Although he's on a... pretty close pace last year, I guess.

And then you got a guy like Jorge Soler hit 48 last year. Eugenio Suarez hit 49, right? I put Suarez behind those others. Like, that's... He doesn't impact the ball as hard as those other guys, right?

Am I making that up? No, I think that's true. Yeah. So, that's the one I'm most skeptical of. But that's kind of the group... So the point I'm getting at when we're talking about draft order, is if you are at this point in the draft and you feel like you've neglected home runs, Reyes becomes a high priority for you. Yep.

Very high priority. You know, if you went steals and pitching early in your draft, which if you listen to Scott White, that's what you're going to do, going back to back on the 10th and 11th rounds with Miguel Sino and Franmo Reyes, there are worse ways to make up ground. than going with those two guys because they might hit 90 home runs between them. Yep. All right.

Absolutely. We'll continue that series next week, rounds 13 through 15, likely coming Monday. Let's finish off the show with some of your emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com is the way to get your emails on the show. Send them in. We're trying to come up with content. Your emails help. We do.

Talked a lot about Chef Boyardee and Velvita the last couple days. Oh, and there's an email coming. Okay. James and Atlanta, how's that for a tease? James in Atlanta writes in, Hey, Paxton, Bond, and McCann. He didn't include Heath because he's too good for baseball now. I want to, like, Heath is spending his time on football now.

He's not too good for baseball. We're just trying to allocate our resources as best we can. I understand you're disappointed that Heath's not here. look, I'm here. Scott's here. Isn't that enough, guys? It's never enough, Chris. Anyway, Dynasty Points League. Who would you choose between Joe Adele and Dylan Carlson?

Two of your all-rooky players. Scott. Who is it? Joe Adele or Dylan Carson? Ah. I mean, Joe Adele is the higher-rated prospect. But by... I am...

This may be a recency bias, but I'm kind of feeling Carlson. especially with the points format. It just seems like the play discipline is going to be good for him. And it just seems like there's less of a chance that you're going to really have wasted that pick. Not that I think Joe Adele's going to collapse or anything. But I feel like Dylan Carlson's right there. And Adele still has something to prove.

So Connelline and Carlson right now. All right. recency bias for sure Josiah writes in most of my picks are in the second half of the draft due to trading away top picks during his 2019 championship run congratulations on your championship

how should this affect my draft strategy I mean I think it kind of depends on what your plan for 2020 is if you don't have you know presuming this is a keeper league yeah if you don't have like multiple superstars already

to round out your roster I think you're probably focusing on young guys with upside and just sort of punting on 2020 a little bit. That's probably the right way to go. Now, if you do have multiple stars, then I think you're going to do a bit more of a mix. You're going to look for some of the more boring veteran options who can maybe fill in your roster. And you're still going to need upside because you're not going to have those first round picks. So you're going to need a couple of guys if you want to compete in 2020 who are going to make that leap into that first round range. And so, you know, we talked about some guys in that 10 to 12 range who could be that, you know, Corey Seeger, Friend Mill Reyes, Miguel Snow.

But it's a, you know, I think you're probably punting a little bit on 2020 here. Yeah, that makes sense. It would definitely depend on what you already had because, how like what round compared to a redraft league what round is your league starting in relatively speaking because there comes a point in a draft where you're it really where like a i don't know a 15th round pick versus a 12th round pick what's the difference even like a like i guess what i'm trying to say is there's there's less bankable the later you get in a draft the fewer the bankable options are anyway so You shouldn't necessarily give up on this year if you already have a good talent base.

But if everybody else gets like 10 rounds to pick and you're not picking until round 11, you just have no chance if you're starting from scratch, you know? Yeah. All right. We got an email from Sampson, Collaboration of the Year, inspired by Thursday's conversation, Sweet Boy Tart D, a sweet tart filled ravioli with red sauce. Uh, that wouldn't work. Sweet tarts are, are very hard.

And, uh, I don't know how you would fill ravioli with them. The ravioli would have weird lumps. Unless you're saying, pulverize them. And then you're just talking about pixie sticks. The chewy sweet tarts? I, of course I have, Scott. Are they big? Uh, they are, are they not big.

They're about the circumference of a nickel. and then maybe like three nickels stacked on top of each other. Yeah. I want to say I remember the chewy ones being awesome, but I was very young when I had one of those. I can't even be confident it was a sweet tart. But like as a general rule, chewy candy is better than hard.

Are you thinking of a shock tart? I'm not. This was pre-shock tarts. This was like, I'm really digging deep here, like three, four years old and just having this divine experience with the chewy sweet-tarts. Wow, I don't even remember them having those, but I do love, yes, I love, my wife criticizes me all the time for my weird taste and candy, but I just, I love any kind of fruit candy. Not so much on the chocolate, but the fruit candies.

Love them. Last email. Randy and Miami, there has been a, there has been a ton of talk about the effect of shortened season on injured and aging players. However, he hasn't heard much about how the rookies who are hoping for early season callups may be affected are the service time rules of. affected by the shortened season or do the dates remain the same? And we talked a little bit about that early on the podcast, but just to kind of wrap it up, they're negotiating that right now, so we don't have a hard answer. But I think it would be fair to assume that, you know, if there's a shortened season, the days of service time would be shortened to the same degree. And so if there's 150-day season, you know, maybe it's a month until the super-year. for two deadline rather than, you know, a month and a half or whatever it typically is.

Does that make sense to you, Scott? Yes, it would be less, but does that really raise their value when it's also a smaller stretch that they contribute? Yeah, I don't know. These are questions that need to be sorted out still. Yeah, hopefully we'll find that out soon and then we can have a bit of a clearer picture, but unfortunately we won't know if there will be a shortened season for a while anyway. So that's one of the things that we're dealing with right now is just the uncertainty of when the season will begin and how long it's going to be.

So all we can do is the best with the information we have right now. And keep listening to fantasy baseball today and we'll update you whenever we find out. So thanks so much for listening, Scott. Thanks for being here. Thank you for putting this together, Chris. Adam. We'll see you next time, I guess. And that'll do it for the fantasy baseball. Yeah, I mean, we'll see him next time. That'll do it for the fantasy baseball today podcast.

I'm Chris Towers for Scott White. Thanks for listening.