Fantasy Baseball Today - Chris' Tout Wars Draft, This Year's (Blank) and Prospect Updates (3/3 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 3, 2023

How did Chris Towers' Tout Wars team turn out (3:30)? ... How should you attack saves plus holds leagues (5:35)? ... Which players gain the most in OBP or innings pitched formats (9:50)? ... Who is this year's Aaron Judge (16:10)? ... Which breakout pitcher will actually come through (23:00)? ... Which prospect hitter will make a huge impact (27:37)? ... Which top-30 starting pitcher will implode (35:26)? ... Which prospect will get called up midseason and dominate (38:50)? ... Which questionable pitcher could make a big impact (45:31)? ... News and notes (51:52): Brendan Rodgers might need shoulder surgery. ... What's the word with The Welsh (55:34)!? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome in to fantasy baseball today. Frank Stamphle joined by the Chris. The Chris's Towers and the Welsh. Today on the show, we're going to recap Chris Towers's Tout Wars draft. This year's blank. Who is this year's Julio Rodriguez? Who is this year's Spencer Strider? The answer is probably nobody, but let's have some fun.

And what's the word with the Welsh? We'll get some updates from out there in Arizona where apparently it's been snowing. What the heck is going on, Welsh? I didn't do. I mean, you got the mood you like where I'm like vibing if everyone on the video is watching on the YouTube. I was just doing a little bit of the hula and everything like that. It's nothing close to that out here. I got in my car. It was 30 something degrees this morning. Drove out to Scottsdale where it was 40 something degrees. The mountains were covered in snow in Phoenix and Scottsdale. And I walked along Salt River Fields where the Rockies play on the grass, which was all wet, fields are destroyed, and I stepped in snow on a baseball

field in Arizona. It is the wildest thing. And this is not the first time in spring training. This has happened. So I just going to assume, guys, hopefully you guys have me here all year that in July or August, I'll be reporting about how I went to a complex level game in a hundred and thirty-five degree weather, because I assume it's all going to turn that we're having this winter. It's never been this cold in spring training since I've lived in Arizona,

and I've lived here for 25 years or so. It's crazy. That is wild. I saw some videos of cacti covered in snow, and I'm like, what is going on out in Arizona? Crazy stuff. I'm headed out to Florida this weekend,

Palm Beach for first pitch Florida, labor drafts as well. So hopefully there's no snow. Towers, what's up, buddy? How you doing? Good. It's roughly the same temperature in New York City

as it is in Arizona today. So that's weird. Weird. So, you know, we don't have any snow. No, no, we do not. We actually have a late start going here on YouTube because we just wrapped up the Scott White Dynasty League, which I tweeted about it. Some people were like, oh, you should live stream it. No, we shouldn't. I mean, this thing will completely throw you off. Like, Max Schurzer went for $72. Mike Trout went for. Logan Webb went for 60 plus. Yeah. So many players are kept in this league. It's a 24 team. head to head points, dynasty league.

So the inflation is insane. It would actually do more harm than goods. You don't want to see, you didn't want to physically see me mad that I didn't get a $4 Trevor May. Like, nobody wanted to see that at the end of the draft, that I was furious and stomped the table that I didn't get for the $4 Trevor May. You guys would have a miserable time watching that draft.

Let's up into Towers' Tout Wars draft. And it's an interesting format too, because it's innings pitched instead of wins, saves plus holds instead of saves, and OBP instead of batting average. So very interesting format. Chris was drafting fifth in this one, started his draft with Muki Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr. Again, you're the Tatis guy, Chris. That's just my guy.

Max Scher, George Springer, who does get a boost in OBP, and Justin Verlander. It's a pretty sick start. I've got to say, what was your read while the draft was going on? I was really, really hoping, one that Ronald O'Brien. would fall to me at number five, because I do think in an OBP league specifically, you know, we talk about that tier of five at the top of our standard five by five drafts. I think in an OBP league, it's probably more like a tier of four with Julio Rodriguez and, you know, potentially Trey Turner, not necessarily belonging in that group, but I think it's more

Julio Rodriguez. So, you know, I think the top four there, you swap out either Trey Turner or really are Rodriguez for Juan Soto. You go Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Aaron Judge. Ronald Nuccia is the order it went in. I ended up with Mookie Betts. And really, it's just a spot where, you know, picking fifth, you kind of have your pick of that next tier. I could have gone Rodriguez.

I could have gone Turner. I could have gone Kyle Tucker. I went with Mookie Betts. I think he's a bit of a safer OVP bet than the rest of those guys. I think, you know, the five category production is going to be there. And I'm pretty happy with how it worked out. Obviously, I would be much happier with it if Ronald Cunia was on my team. You know, the 390 OBP from 2021 would look really good.

But I'm pretty happy with it. It's very similar to a lot of the teams that I'm drafting these days. I've got the two aces in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. I've got Fernando Tatis, as I will, in a lot of leagues. And, yeah, George Springer gets pushed up a decent amount in OBP as well. Yeah, I also saw that you took a manual class. in the sixth round. I'll come back to you in a second. I want to ask Welsh, this is a saves plus holds league. So Scott and I have been telling people basically wait on relievers.

Obviously, Emmanuel Class A is still going to give you amazing ratios. There's no doubt about that. And he's probably going to be among the league leaders in innings pitch as well. But Welsh, what is your general strategy when it comes to saves plus holds leagues? Yeah, I mean, I completely agree with you guys. I'm going to push them down. But the only thing, though, is like, this is down. Like in NFBC leagues, you're going to see Manuel Class A going in like, you know, the middle of the third at latest. So if you're getting him in the six, this is already kind of a pushdown. The only reason I actually would consider this is because like, like you said, I think the elite of the elite standout. It's Class A, it's Edwin Diaz.

It's Josh Hater. Then I think there's actually a bigger gap, like tier gap between like what you would see in normal traditional saves. Because then there's just so many other players. where, like, Clay Holmes, Clay Holmes to me is so much more valuable in a save holds league, because right now he's a little bit dicey. Is he going to get saves every day? They're talking about pushing him in different roles.

Now it doesn't matter. And this is on the Yankees. So, you know, give me those type of guys, Evan Phillips I would push up in a saves holds league. You know, we don't know if he's going to close for the Dodgers, but if he gets holds for the Dodgers, there you go. So like almost every reliever gets pushed back, except the elite of the league of the Dodgers.

the elite of the elite, which Towers did get. So I don't hate it, but I would probably have weighted overall. But, you know, six round tempted for a class A is definitely. Yeah. One thing to keep in mind is it saves plus holds, saves are still the more valuable commodity. Of the top 15 in saves plus holds last season, 10 of them had fewer than 10 holds. So what it does, like you said, it kind of flattens the reliever pool. And it makes, you know, those illegal.

guys who have more questions about how many saves they're going to get, like your Peter Fairbanks types. It makes them more valuable. But I do think, like, Emmanuel Class A didn't have a hold last year. He still led the league and saves plus holds with 42. So, like, I'm not saying he's going to get 42 saves again. That's hard to predict. But there's no question he's the closer. There's no question about his role. There's no question that he's very, very good. So, you know, it was, it was more in that spot. I wasn't going in expecting to take a reliever. And I don't think I took another reliever until like the 23rd round,

the 20th round, I took AJ Minter. You know, I think the thing to keep in mind if you play in one of these leagues is like, it's easy to get caught up in the plus holds part of it. But the league leaders in holds usually have like 25 to 30. Correct. The league leaders in saves usually have 30 to 35 to 4. 40. And so that's a bigger gap. So like the guys who aren't closers who tend to end up ranked pretty high are, you know, I think Paul Seawald ended up pretty high last year because

he did both. It's either closers all year or guys who end up closers and relievers. There's very few who are just holds guys who rank really highly there. So for that, it was mostly the value, the value of where he found in the six round 68th overall. I generally don't love. taking those guys. But when the values right, and I did it in one of our roto drafts the other day, I did take Edwin Diaz as well. You know, when the values right, I'm okay doing it. I'll tell you one thing. I would have smashed taking Andres Munoz and Johann Duran in that because there's no more risk or care about whether it's holds or saves. So like those guys, just for anybody that's, since we're talking about it, I would boost those guys up and they would be such massive targets for me because both just

huge big fastballs. They might be the closers. If they're not, they'll be high leverage. Those guys are so much more valuable and saved the hold. They're probably, now I'm thinking about it,

they're the closest to that Devin, where Devin Williams was like a top 10, easy, top 10, maybe top eight saves and holds guy when he wasn't the closer role, when he was in the eighth-man spot. Those are kind of the same thing. I think both of those guys move up into the top 10.

Chris, just one other question on this draft. Which players do you think see the biggest uptick? I know you just wrote about this for CBS Sports.com. So, OBP innings pitched, are there any very clear standouts for you in that format? Yeah, I mean, the innings pitched, this is a town Worsley where we swap out wins for innings pitched.

And that, I think it's still the high-end guys. I will say in this, the way I put my staff together, I really liked what my pitching staff looked like, but I probably could have used like one more good source of innings because I've got Scherzer and Verlander. A little bit question about how many innings I'm going to get from them. I got Nestor Cortez, Chris Sale, Dustin May from

12 to 14, which I love that run, getting those guys in the 12th through 14th rounds. Tyler Glass now, he fell to 197th overall. I stopped the fall there. Just throw him out there, see what happens. Grayson Rodriguez and Edward Cabrera were the other two starters. So like

I really need Chris Sale to give me like 180 innings to really have a chance. And I probably could have like maybe instead of taking that flyer on Tyler Glass now or Grayson Rodriguez in the 17th or 19th maybe it's like that's the spot to take Jose Burrios instead or something you know that that might be one change that I would have made I would this is more of a traditional roto staff that I would feel really good about as for guys who benefit specifically from OBP versus batting average you know I looked up the ATC project

on the Fangraph's auction calculator. And actually, the player who benefits the most in the move from OBP is Juan Soda, which not surprising. He's the most patient hitter in baseball. But it is kind of surprising that a guy who's already a first round player can benefit that much. He sees the highest dollar value increase, although not the highest rate increase. He goes from like the number eight hitter to the number two hitter. According to the ATC projections in OBP leagues,

Joey Gallo goes from 171 to like 114 in those projections. And I mean, look, he hit 199 in 2021. If he can do that again and get back to hitting for power like he did with a 351 on base percentage, that's a really valuable player in an OBP league. He's got a hit better than he did last year because he had a 280 OBP. But he's the kind of guy. And Max Muncie's another one, Carlos Santana. you know, if those guys, if Max Muncie and Joey Gallo have bounce back seasons, they're very, very good in OVP leagues.

I think Gallo actually did end up getting drafted in this league, as he should, because, you know, he went 210. Muncie went 901st overall. That's not bad. Which, yeah, that seems like a really good deal. I had him in my queue. I thought it was earlier because I wanted to take him, and I feel like I should have just taken him before he went off the board. seeing as he went a little later than I thought. And then the biggest loser in the move,

or the biggest loser from the move to OBP leagues is Salvador Perez, which makes sense. That guy might walk like 18 times next season, but he's still a really valuable player. He's my catcher in this format. You do have to make up. But like catchers tend to not be great hitters, and that goes for OBP as well.

So, you know, that's not the worst thing in the world. Alec Bohm, Michael Harris is another guy who probably goes from like a fringe second or third rounder to more like a fourth or fifth rounder, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, two guys who, you know, the fact that they make so much contact, the fact that they, you know, hit for good batting average, at least when they're going well, that helps the fact that they don't walk in your regular roto leagues because, you know, like we talked about yesterday, you got the bigger denominator.

But in this format, obviously not walking is going to hurt you for those guys. Tim Anderson could hit 311 with a 340 on base percent. percentage, 340 on base percentage. Still pretty good. 311, obviously, an elite batting average. So, you know, that's, it's fairly straightforward. That Trey Turner actually does drop, I think, from like that top five to kind of that second tier of hitters as well in OBP.

So, you know, those are those are some of the names to keep in mind. You know, one note I want to add into that. I'm doing a tout. I'm in Tout doing the draft and hold. And one thing I noticed that ended up happening and I think anyone could see it. We've talked so much about second base. and like how like not great second base is. It's funny when you get into OBP,

you know how you get like that clump of those four guys? It just expanded because people started pushing jazz down. Ozzie pushes down. Simian goes down a little bit and everyone was fighting over Altube. I think Altuva might have gone in like the top 24. So what is a not great position where these guys will go within 10 spots of each other? It kind of became a little bit worse, at least from the top end. And then you get some guys that might qualify a little bit lower

that boost up a little bit. It's just an odd thing that happens. And seeing specifically Ozzy and Jazz fall a decent amount in those OBP drafts is something to pay attention to. One other name I want to throw out there, Chris, who you actually wound up with as you're starting third baseman. You just waited at the position. Yandy Diaz, last year had a 401 on base percentage, and it's 372 for his career. So I know he's just kind of boring in a standard five by five, but that OBP makes him a standout. almost the way that like Jeff McNeil or Luisarise is a standout in batting average. And it's in the way I built my team with specifically like Salvador Perez, but also like I've got

Salvador Perez, Byron Bucks and O'Neill Cruz, like those three guys just may not be good on base percentage guys, even if they hit really well. So, you know, I did need like I've got Jesse Winker who should be very good for on base percentage. I've got Yandi Diaz. So like hopefully that balance. Like I can live with Yan-D-S being a low-power, you know, OBP specialist because I've got, you know, 30-plus home runs from my catcher. All right. If you want to read more about that,

you could find it on Chris's Totwar draft being that, what we're talking about. You can find it on CBSports.com. That should be up Friday. Let's get into this year's blank. And we'll start with Aaron Judge. A lot of these players we've talked about quite a bit. So we could hit a few main points.

If there's a player we haven't talked about, then obviously we could spend a few more minutes on that player. Who is this year's Aaron Judge? So the way I define this was a hitter going outside the top 30 in ADP who could finish as the top player in fantasy and towers. We will start with you. Yeah, that's a tough one because like it's really, really hard to finish as the top player in fantasy, obviously. But especially like if you don't steal bases, it's especially hard. And Aaron Judge did it, you know, hitting 60. home runs. That helps.

Jazz Chisholm is not going to hit 63 home runs, but he's going to steal a bunch of bases. And if you look at what he did on a per game basis last season, it was it was a 30-30 pace, right? 30. 3530 over 150 games.

Yeah, that's pretty good. He was trying to find on the Razball player raider on the per game basis. He was very, very good. So he's just the guy that like, he's talking about going 40. I don't think that's a realistic projection for Jazz Chisholm.

But like, that's the kind of player he is. That's the kind of player he wants to be. And we've seen him play at a first round level for, you know, a stretch. I think he can do that for, you know, if he can do that for longer and stay healthy, he's certainly got, you know, top five upside. Yeah. The ADP for Jazz Chisholm is 47.6. He's going just after Ozzy Albi.

So you most likely have to make that decision. and Towers, I believe you would take Jazz over Ozzy Albies, correct? Yes, I would. Yeah, I think Albies might be a little safer, but frankly, he's missed time with his own injuries over the past couple of seasons. So it's not like he's avoided that. And yeah, it looks like, if I'm reading this correctly,

Jazz Chisholm was, he might have been like a top five player per game last season in five by five scoring. So yeah, pretty good. It's not far-fetched. And speaking of Ozzy Albies, I had this note for later on, but he plans to steal more bases this season

and said, quote, I'll take 30-30. Yeah, I'll take 30-30, right? But my plan is to go 40-40. So everybody's going 40-40 this year. 40-40 for you, 40-40 for you. Ozzy Albi's plans to do it, and so does jazz chism.

I do like paying attention to which players are actively saying they want to run more. I think that is something we should pay attention to. Welsh, you are up, and this one, no surprise. I hope that everyone, Everybody also understands when I say this name that I came with great restraint

from mentioning a certain outfielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks who is the fastest player in baseball, who I think could lead the league. I held great restraint by not mentioning Corby and Corby and Carol, and I'm totally not also adding him to this list here. But like Towers, I think this is a very, very hard thing to be the number one guy. So you almost have to go with like crazy extremes. I really like jazz.

I went with O'Neill Cruz and that was your no surprise here. O'Neill Cruz, one of those guys who said he does have goals set that he's looking to be a 40-40 guy. I've found it immensely interesting that even the lowest of projections, you know, the bat X still has this line of 23 homers and 18 stolen bases with the 248 batting average coming into this season. Also a sub 30% K rate. And that's the median line that projections are putting out. These are not places that are going to be overly excited about, especially a guy that had a 35% strikeout. rate, but on the back end of the season, he was able to cut it down to 28. If you're looking at that player, this has actually been a big thing I've been talking about with O'Neo Cruz the whole time.

When Steamers' projections were the first and only ones out, steamers projections, literally were making him a first round player. I mean, when you look at 20-something stolen bases and close to 29 homers, the only guys that did that were first-round players, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker. So if you want to talk about a player that can skyrocket there, if we get peak O'Neil Cruz where the strikeouts really, really do fall down. The only problem that's going to hold him back is like he's a pirate. So, you know, he might have 35 homers and like 54 RBI. That's the only problem that I worry about. But, you know, it's going to be big homers, big stolen bases. If he does reach that like 30, 30 range, he's going to be an easy top five. And I think he's one of the most obvious players if you're trying to paint someone with that first overall pick brush, O'Neill Cruz and the crazy stats he could

put up. So yeah, it was a pretty easy one. The ADP for O'Neill Cruz is 75. He's going right around Danesby Swanson, Zander Bogarts. I'm assuming you would take him over both of those. Yeah, I have him quite a bit higher. I have jazzed quite a bit higher. You were talking, you asked Towers, but do you take him over Albies?

I will take jazz over all of them, all the second baseman. He's my number one second baseman this year. I definitely have some volatility in my game. Don't do what I'm doing in TGFBI, where I am just going bonkers, and I'm just, I'm experimenting with some, a little bit of volatility. I do have O'Neill Cruz on that team. I also have Corbyn Carroll.

But yeah, I'm comfortable with a couple of these insane high upside guys because I also think there's so many players that you can compliment with them. I mean, where O'Neo Cruz is, like there's also Corey Seeger, if I, you know, you wouldn't probably take both of them together. But, you know, I just think in each little tier of 10, there's just these really good floor players that I want to mix and match a few of these guys. Why not have this crazy upside? O'Neill Cruz legit could be a first round talent, if not the number one overall, if things go his way. By the way, the Razball player writer, I was able to find it. Among players with at least 200 played appearances, it's Aaron Judge number one on a per game basis.

Jazz Chisholm number two. Last season. There you go. Pretty good. This year's Aaron Judge for me is going to be Luis Robert. I know he was a disappointment last year. I was all over him, and he did not come through. Mostly due to injury, the performance was down to.

compared to where it was at in 2021. He's yet to play more than 98 games. But I think with this exercise, again, we're looking for volatility within players. And Luis Robert is exactly that. Mostly from a health perspective. But if he gets back closer to the player he was two years ago, where he's hitting well over 300,

he maintained the low strikeout rate last year. We know he hits the ball hard. He's someone who could run more with the increased stolen bases this season as well. Would not surprise me in the slightest if we get like a 330 home. 30 home or 20 seal season. And if Luis Robert does that, he's a first round player. He's probably competing to be the top player in fantasy. I haven't drafted him yet myself because I kind of realize what the downside is as well,

but also acknowledging the upside when it comes to Luis Robert. Let's take our first break here. And when we come back, we are going to do this year's Shane O'Mack on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back into Fantasy Baseball today. Who is this year's Shane McClanahan? What does that mean? an obvious breakout starting pitcher who actually comes through. Remember, last season, I like Shane McClanahan.

A lot of people like Shane O'Mac. And, you know, the helium, you know, the price kept rising as we got closer to the start of the season. So you had to pay a good price, but it was worth it because he was really, really damn good. Towers were coming back to you. Who is this year, Shane McClanahan? So I put Christian Javier question mark in parentheses. I don't know if that counts. He might be too high end.

He might have always picked him out. He certainly did. already break out. So it's mostly a question of whether he qualifies for this category. If he does, I'm going with Christian Javier. He's got the high, high end strikeout rate, you know, top five percentile in baseball, good enough control. And, you know, it's mostly just a question of, does he get to 170 innings this season? I think he can. And he certainly has, you know, top 12 starting pitcher upside. I think that certainly qualifies for Christian Javier. I think he's kind of like a poor man Spencer Strider right now too.

Strider is awesome. I'm not saying they're the same player. Strider's clearly better, but I don't know if they are different enough where they should be going three rounds apart in terms of ADP right now. So that's my biggest selling point for Christian Javier and maybe

fading Spencer Strider. Walsh, you are up. This year, Shane McClain. Who you got? Yeah, I actually struggled a little bit. Javier was one I was choosing, and I almost went in a direction of a player that I think is really going to have a big bounce back, but I didn't feel like it fit that.

That player was Blake Snell I was going to pick, but I didn't feel like it fit the mold. So I took George Kirby, who has been someone I've been pretty big on. A little over 9K per 9 this past year, elite walk rate 1.52 walk per 9, which I love. 339 ERA. Sierra's right in line. He's a big command pitcher. There's a nice power slider in there. He just hits all the zones.

It's something I really liked about McClanahan, even though the stuff was a little bit different, that he really just was zoned out throughout this entire year. and that change up completely changed his game. The Mariners also seem to have kind of a widespread, just pitching change talk going on. Bryce Miller, who I spoke to, added the sweeper and the gyro, kind of wonder if you're going to see some alterations

with George Kirby this year as well. Just give me low-walk, high-high-high-command, good strikeout pitcher on a really good team. I think George Kirby could definitely take the next step, maybe not be the number one pitcher for the whole half of a season, but I think he could be the next, you know, Walmart version of Shane McClanahanham from 2022. The ADP for George Kirby is 108.8.34th starting pitcher off the board.

Let's do a little Kirby or this guy. Welsh, would you rather have Kirby or Clayton Kirshaw? Ooh, Kirby. Kirby or Nestor Cortez? Kirby. Kirby or his teammate, Logan Gilbert. Ooh, that's a really, it is Kirby right now, but that's really close. I actually have like Gilbert and Kirchall right near each other.

Yeah, I think I would say Kirby over Gilbert as well. Kirby or Logan Webb Oh My go Logan Webb There's a little bit of safety net there That's a super good one Yeah I mean there are Six starting pitchers going within

Nine picks of each other In terms of ADP And those are basically all the names there I didn't include Kyle Wright Because I think he's going to fall back A little bit now That he's dealing with that shoulder injury This year Shane McClainahan

For me I'm going to go with Nick Ladolo and Welsh I was a little surprise you didn't choose him Because I didn't want to interrupt but I wanted to start. If you had started with me, I would have said, I was going to pick both of your guys. I literally sat and I was like, Javier, no, Lidolo,

those are both the guys I was thinking about. So I love your guys's choices. The biggest problem for Lodolo is obviously the team context. It's a lot like Hunter Green. I think the stuff for Lidolo is nasty, but obviously pitches in a terrible ballpark, and he's not a bad team. So the run support is going to be pretty bad.

But among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitch last year, 11.4K per 9 for Lodolo ranked 8th. his 20.9% K-minus walk rate ranked 18th. It's got a nasty curveball already. One of the best in baseball. 136 batting average against 46% whiff rate. There was a really good breakdown by Justin Choi. It's an article on Fangraphs where apparently Lodolo changed the shape of his curveball mid-season,

and it got even better. So I know he's kind of only like fastball sinker curveball for now. I don't know that he needs anything else because it works for him right now. The command's got to get a little bit better, but there's big, big upside for Nicololo this season. Ah, the one everyone came for. Who is this year's Julio Rodriguez? I get it.

The answer is probably nobody, but it's a fun exercise, isn't it? The prospect hitter who makes the opening day roster and has a breakout season. I think especially if we're drafting right now, it's probably someone you're getting outside the top 100, top 150 picks. and if we get confirmation that they're making the team by opening day,

they're probably going to move up like 50 or 100 picks. So I think that like a lot of these players we're going to talk about fit that mold. And Welsh, we're talking prospects. So we'll go to you first. Yeah. And funny little anecdotal thing. Frank had written down a player and I thought he mistakenly put it on me. So I copied it.

I paced it over to his. I wrote Corbyn Carroll. And I was like, well, Corbyn Carroll is probably not what he means. And then I put Andrew Painter. And then Frank was like, hey, by the way, I just wanted to, like I wrote one in for you because I knew who this is your pick. I was like, oh, that I can have him. Yes, this is exactly who I would have picked.

Otherwise, I did actually have Andrew Painter. That player is Jordan Walker. I've talked about how also if you want to talk about game resembling game, that might be the closest one that you can do. Walker, 19 homers this past year in AA. 22 stolen bases. Also went to the AFL where he did a little bit more of that. Move to right field.

Played some center field. Low strikeout rates hit 300 in the minors. was almost a three, four, five slash. And what has fascinated me the most is the Cardinals this off season, moving Tyler O'Neill or wanting to to center field and having him and Dylan Carlson battle it out, that's given a spot locked down for Lars Neupar, and it kind of opens up this opportunity. They have put Carl, they have put Carlson over and right,

but they really want to give this job in center to O'Neill. And that, to me, if they feel comfortable with it, opens up the opportunity. I really think they're open to Walker breaking camp. I think a trade could happen. I think they want to know what type of versatility they have. Newt Barr played a little bit of center. Walker played center in the AFL.

It's all about flexibility. And Jordan Walker, if he does break camp, he is 100% a 20-20 potential guy with big, big power upside, even further than that. And he would be the most resembling of Julio Rodriguez. So Welsh, his ADP is on the rise. Of course, he hits one mad at home run in spring training. People get excited.

It was a 430-foot bomb off of Johnny Quato. So, you know, it was his first plate appearance, too. It's just crazy stuff. I took Jordan Walker. I picked 200 in TGFBI. Do you think that's an okay price tag? Yep, I have them. On my ranks, I have them inside the top 200.

Him, as far as rookies go, the only rookies, if you don't count Gunner and Corbyn Carroll, and I might be forgetting someone. I'm not considering Senga when I talk about this. Inside the top 200, I have Miguel Vargas, Walker, and Grayson-Rodriguez. They're all inside of there. So I thought you got a pretty good value. you on a buzzy player.

I also got Corby in that TGFBI, which I was shocked. People let that happen. But hey, we'll reap the benefits on the rookies. All right, Towers,

we're coming your way here. And Scott would be so proud. Yeah, I didn't want to double up on Jordan Walker, but that would be my pick. Just the impact tools is what makes me think of Holi Rodriguez. But I'm with Miguel Vargas,

who just probably doesn't have like the super, superstar upside. Although his physical tools are pretty good, specifically the speed. You know, he wasn't a huge stolen base. guy. It's not necessarily considered a huge part of his game. 94th percent on sprint speed last season in the majors is pretty impressive. He's got excellent contact skills, you know, good lineup.

So it's a situation where, okay, maybe he's not going to be, you know, a contender for a top five pick next season, but he's someone who absolutely we could be talking about as an early round pick next season. Who would you guys rather have right now, Jordan Walker or Miguel Vargas? I think it's tough because Walker has more upside, but Vargas, we know, is going to have a job. I don't know. How do you weigh those two things? I think I would rather have Vargas right now, but it's also kind of like we're far enough away from the season where if I'm drafting tomorrow,

I might just take Walker just because I've got time to figure it out if he doesn't break camp, you know? I've got Vargas ahead, and he would be kind of the guy fascinated to it. I don't know if you've seen the thing where he said like, he's not swinging at pitches in spring so far. And he just hasn't swung at all. And he's just taking walks.

and he's still not getting struck out, which is really crazy. The only thing that's interesting is third base is so bad that I have found myself when the tear falls off, you have that avalanche and then you're just stuck at the bottom, that I kind of want to immediately start to pivot to take Jordan Walker and I'll take him early, and then I will pair him with like a Justin Turner, like an old, boring type of guy that might put up stats.

And that, to me, if you can do that, especially in like a 12 team head to head, or if you think you have a little advantage in a 15-team roto, I would take Walker above Vargas and go higher to do that, knowing and prioritizing that I can get one of those solid third basement to kind of back him out. Because you said it. The upside is in Walker's favor.

But like we shouldn't sleep on Vargas. OPP leagues too. Vargas is even more valuable. And he's going to have that second base gig all year and qualified second and first, which is pretty sweet. Yep. And the answer for me this year's Julio Rodriguez. I don't think he has enough upside to get there.

But I think he's someone where if everything breaks right, he can be a top 50 player this season and that is Ezekiel Tovar with the Colorado Rockies I still just think he's going too far too late for someone who is a starter for the Colorado Rockies and he's never had a strikeout rate higher than 21.7% at any level in the minors

he's a career 283 hitter and he just had a breakout season in the minor league he only played 71 games but 319 batting average 14 home runs 17 steals a 927 OPS if everything breaks right we could get a 280 bat batting average 15 to 20 homers

15 to 20 steals and that's probably a top 50 player so I just think he's going way too late in drafts right now I wanted to choose one of the Yankees guys but I'm getting... You're not about Anthony Volpe as well I'm getting nervous I'm getting a little bit nervous I liked Oswald Paraza all offseason

I still do like him the problem here Welsh is that if Volpe does enough this throttspring training and he's already he's been on fire he hit a home run he has two steals already he's going to force the Yankees' hand. What do they do?

He's not on the 40-man roster yet. Does that mean him and Oswald Paraza are kind of splitting time to start the year if they're both on the team? I just don't know how it would work out and it's making me a little nervous. That's why I didn't choose one. I didn't understand what you're like,

I'm like, why are you nervous? Oh, you're nervous about Paraza, not about the whole situation because Volpe looks every part of what I've been defending. So many people, the anti-volpiers out there are very, very much, they want to point back to the first two months of the season.

And that's all they care about. And, you know, oh, at $256 and blah, blah, it's like, okay, the guy struggled in the first half and he completely rebounded the second half. He's a big power speed combo. He looks phenomenal in the spring right now. I feel like the Yankees and how they've talked unless, this is how I view it. I kind of don't think it matters what Volpe does unless it is just insanity. I think Paraz has got a really struggle for them to make this move because they've got to move someone off of the 40 man to get Volpe on there. I still think Volpe goes to AAA.

I think Prazah gets it unless it's just struggle city. But Volpe is going to be up sooner rather than later. And he might be a sneaky piece that we should be talking about in one of these sections you got coming up. Yeah, for sure. I mean, I get it with Volpe. The problem, again, I just wonder if he somehow forces the Yankees' hand. And they're like, okay, we're going to promote Volpe. He's up on opening day.

How does everything play out? Like, someone's losing playing time. Is it Glaber Torres? Do they just bench Josh Donaldson? That would be my answer. but they're still paying him $25 million. So I feel like he's not going to go away yet. And they have DJ LaMayhew.

So it's just kind of making me a little bit nervous. Who is this year's Jose Burrios? Let's move kind of quickly through these. I want to get back to the prospect ones. They're more fun in my opinion. A top 30 starting pitcher that unexpectedly implodes this season. Towers will start with you. Yeah, I'm going to go with Dylan Sees,

a guy who I certainly like. I think he's a talented pitcher. But like the big breakout for Dylan Sees last season mostly came. from getting much better results on balls and play. He went from a 383 expected Wobah on contact last in 2021 to 313 last year. That is going from a solidly below average mark to one of the best marks for any starting pitcher in baseball. And the problem with that is pitchers have some control over the quality of contact they allow.

Obviously, we all know that. But it's a very noisy stat from year to year. whether it's noisy because pitchers just don't have that much control over it, maybe it's noisy because it takes a long time to stabilize, whatever it is. He actually had a worse strikeout rate last season than he did in 2021. He had a worse walk rate in 2022 than he did in 2021. So if the quality of contact metrics regress, he's someone I could see being, you know, very, very mediocre. Now, a lot of the quality contact metrics were backed up by, you know,

he was really good in average eggs velocity loud and XBA and all the stats that we look at in terms of that. So I'm not saying it's a fluke necessarily. I'm just saying that he's the kind of guy who could have a relatively slim margin for error, especially given how often he just seems out of whack. And last year he was able to pull himself out of it. But I could just see things, you know, kind of snowballing for Dillon Cs. All right. Well, so we'll move on to you here.

This year is Jose Burrios, a top 30 starting pitcher that, expectedly implodes. Yeah, I'll be pretty quick about this one. Tristan McKenzie is just not the guy that I find myself ever drafted and gets hit pretty hard, lower 26 percentile of hard hit. Exit velocities in the lower 10 percent. He doesn't get a whole bunch of strikeouts. He's median line as far as like batting average giving up and strikeouts and stuff like

that. And he had about a run and a half differential between his ERA and actually it was just a little under a run on his ERA and X-FIP. with a Sierra that's kind of in that same range. I just don't like the three-year decline on K percentage overall. And I just don't think, it might not be a Burrios-type fall, but I just don't think, though, the walk rate is going to continue with him. And if the strikeouts continue to go,

I think it just kind of depletes some of the value. So I don't think this is like a skyrocketing fall or anything like that, but Tristan McKenzie would be my pick. Yeah, I think I kind of took the low-hanging fruit on this one, and it's Robbie Ray for me. And last year, we saw some warning signs, strikeouts came down, the walks went up, the swinging strike rate went from 15.5% in that Syung season to 13.5% last year. Now, he did make some adjustments. He started throwing a sinker,

and he was much better over his final 20 starts. So maybe he carries that over, but we've just kind of, we've seen the floor out of Robbie Ray. And things could go south very quickly, where if the control gets bad and he starts giving up home runs, then things could just really kind of spiral out of control for Robbie Ray. And as a result, he's, not somebody I find myself targeting often in drafts this season. Who is this year's Michael Harris? A prospect who gets called up mid-season and makes a huge impact. Let's go with a hitter whilst you're up.

Yeah, I'm actually double-dip. So I changed mine, and Frank Minas saw this. The original guy I had on here was Jordan Lawler. I like that one too. I like Lauer too, though. And I'll explain it is because Nick Ahmed's already hurt, and he's always hurt, and he'll continues to be hurt. The very beginning of spring,

put Lawler in that spot starting a shortstop in the first couple of games and they let him get prime opportunity with the Major League team and start. They've moved over to Perdomo, who would be the prime guy? Rojas is not touching it. So guess what? Rojas is out of the picture. That's, I think, an important thing here as well. Perdomo can't hit. I love the guy personally. He can't hit. He's an okay defender. So what that does, especially midseason, if the Diamondbacks are middling, this leaves this opportunity where they want Lawler to come up. They've primed him to come up. Here you go. Jordan Lawler could come up and do it. But I pivoted because the conversation we're having,

Anthony Volpe is the answer. He's the easy answer that jumps out into my mind. For everything we've talked about, he might break camp. I think the Yankees love him. They might move off of Glaver Torres at some point. If Paraza struggles, he's going to get into that opportunity.

He had a huge bounce back. So 44 bases in AA with 18 homers. Came up to AAA. Batting average was still a little bit stinky, but he stole six bases. hit three more homers. So that's 50 stolen bases this past year and over 20 homers. It's crazy, crazy stats.

He seems locked in in spring, striking the ball, hitting the ball hard. Defender is a little bit in question. And that's where I think it's really like fun to watch, is that Glaber Torres, if he were to move off this team or move him to third, Volpe really does look like he might be more lined to be a second baseman. That's what we want.

Praz at short, Bopi at second, prime guy to come up and be a Michael Harris this year. Anthony Volpe with 1B, being Jordan Lawler. And for what it's worth, Volpe did start at second base on Thursday in a spring training game and he hit a lead off home run against Mitch Keller. So I'm not sure that it really counts because, you know, whatever. It's Mitch Keller, but he's got a new cutter, Frank. He's got like six pitches now. Maybe one of them will be good. Maybe. Towers, let's go to you. I think this is a fantastic answer. I thought about putting this one there for myself, a prospect who

gets called up midseason and makes a huge impact. Yeah, I mean, you want someone who's already gotten to AA and performed, and that's Ellie Dela Cruz for the Cincinnati Reds. He's got pretty big strikeout issues, 158 in 120 games last season. That's a little concerning. Despite that, he hit 304

with a 945 OPS last season. He was productive at high A. He was productive at AA as a 20-year-old at AA. Got to AA, played 47 games hit eight homers, stole 19 bases. It's a

very, very fantasy-friendly profile if the contact issues don't sink him. That's a big enough red flag that I think there's a decent amount of risk there. But Ellie Daly-Cruz, you also love anyone who gets to play in Cincinnati. So he's someone who should be up by mid-season and has the potential to be a very impactful fantasy option. Yeah, Ellie Dela-Cruz has drawn comps to O'Neill Cruz. He's a big-bodied dude as well. I mean, electric back-bat speed, big power, lots of speed. in general.

And if you plays every day in Cincinnati, I mean, the upside could be massive. It just comes down to the strikeouts for him. You know, I want to just add crazy as I've, I'm lucky. I feel lucky enough. I have been in person with both of these players, O'Neill Cruz and L.A. Daly Cruz. And I'll tell you, I was around Ellie last Saturday. And he's a different body type in person than O'Neill Cruz.

O'Neill Cruz definitely has just kind of skinnier limbs. He's growing into it. Ellie Daly Cruz looks jacked. He stood out like a sore thumb in that Reds crew when I was there when they were running the fields and stuff. He had big shoulders that's going to continue to grow. It was almost just like a skinnier Aaron Judge or something like that out there. He is an impressive physical specimen and I like this pick. That is Ellie Dela Cruz with the Cincinnati Res.

And my pick is maybe more of an unheralded prospect. It feels like maybe there's some fatigue on him. I don't know why. I really like Dustin Harris with the Texas Rangers. I think there's all the opportunity in the world here too. because they just signed Robbie Grossman to a one-year, $2 million deal. That's not going to stop Dustin Harris if he's ready to go. He played 85 games last season at AA.

He hit 257 with 17 home runs, 19 steals, routinely solid strikeout rates. We're talking below right around or below 20%. He walks a lot. He's got power and speed. The year prior, 2021, Dustin Harris, 327 batting average, 20 homers, 25 steals. I mean, to me, this is like the perfect Michael Harris comp where he'd come up and be a five category contributor for the Texas Rangers this season. Well, so is there anything that you've seen, heard, know about Dustin Harris that like,

there isn't more hype around him because the minor league numbers look really, really good? So I've seen Dustin a couple times in Rangers camp because for whatever reason, I've been there a whole bunch. And he is always locked in with Evan Carter. Those two run one and the same. What I do know is the Rangers covet Evan Carter. I'm not saying he would get the opportunity beforehand, but the bat might be a little little bit ready. And Dustin Harris has moved positions. They've also, they did do some weird stuff.

You know, you said they side Robbie Grossman. They also have Clint Frazier, who's on the NRI, who they've been kind of running out there. They've got a couple of those options. Like Brad Miller is there as well. I don't, I don't hate this one at all, but I got to tell you, if it's a mid-season one, I actually think Evan Carter, who I think hit AA this year, would be the guy that they push because this team is crazy about him. And sky's the limit. I kind of think, Dustin is maybe stuck to like a left field or maybe they would put him in at first, like if there's an injury. But I like this one because he is kind of a five tool player.

He does have a little bit more versatility. And it's him and Evan Carter, I think that are the next lineup for those kind of like corner outfield. And he has that maybe first base potential as well. Evan Carter got six games in at AA last season. So I'd imagine he starts there. And if he plays well, maybe can earn himself a shot.

I did want to mention Royce Lewis. He was like the first one that came to mind. He's coming back from a season. second torn ACL, I believe in the same knee, right? So we're probably not going to see him until June or July, but second half of the season, this guy could make a huge impact for the Minnesota twins. So just remember the name. As we get closer to the all-star break, Royce Lewis there. Let's take one more break and we get back. Who is this year's Spencer Strider? Find out on fantasy baseball today. Who is this year's Spencer Strider? A pitcher who has an uncertain role entering the season,

but makes a huge fantasy impact. Tower. We'll actually start with you on this one. Who's your pick? Yeah, I said this on yesterday's podcast, on one of the two podcasts that we did yesterday, or maybe it was on the one we did Thursday afternoon. I can't remember. They're all blurring together. Grayson Rodriguez has a good chance to be this year, Spencer Strider.

It's really hard to be this year, Spencer Strider, like Julio Rodriguez. But Grayson Rodriguez, probably not going to get the types of innings totals that you want. I don't know if he's even reached 100 in his professional career, but everyone still thinks this guy, is arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball. He dealt with that. I think it was a lat injury last year, pectoral, something like that.

But not the kind of thing that you think would linger. And, you know, he was averaging 98 miles per hour with his fastball in his first spring outing. He said that his stuff is better than it was last season. He was already the top pitching prospect in baseball this time last season. And he plays in an awesome home park now. Or he's going to because Camden Yards is. a death for hitters now.

So I think Grayson Rodriguez is very well situated to be a very impactful fantasy option for as long as he's on the mound this season. All right. Nice pick there with Grace and Rodriguez, likely to be in the opening day rotation. So I'm surprised his ADP hasn't climbed more than it is. And let me, let me just pull up that ADP just to make sure here.

According to Fantasy Pros, 185.2. I feel like if we knew the top pitching prospect was going to be in the rotation in years past, the ADP would be higher than 185.2. It feels like a pretty good discount right now on Grace for Rodriguez. Wells, we'll go to you. Who is this year's Spencer Strider? Yeah, I thought about, I struggled with like the idea of this because I feel like there's less of those like questionable roles. Because I also wanted to say like Ricky Teeteman would be one of those players and Andrew Painter.

But I don't think their roles are in question. It's just about like when do they come up. One that's kind of been teetering that I picked was Hunter Brown. Hunter Brown coming into this season look like it might be in more of a leverage relief situation. But good old Lance McCullors never hits the field. May never again. I mean, he will, but he may never again, if you know what I mean. And Hunter Brown is going to most likely get an opportunity to get back into that rotation.

Great curveball last year, 30% whiff rate. He's got two pitches, the cutter in the fastball that are in the 90s. There's a good variation, 13 plus mile per hour difference. between the lows on the curveball and the fastball. I'd love to see the slider uptick because he did get hit hard a little bit in his stint in the major leagues last year on the fastball and the curve both had a 92 plus EV on them

where the slider really no one could get on top of. He only threw that 13% of the time. I mean, let's get going. Emulate Verlander, emulate your favorite, add more pitches. It's a great organization to do that. And I think he's one of those guys where if he gets in the rotation and finds early success,

they won't be able to take him out. At this point, I don't know how they can even fool themselves into doing this Lance McCullers in relief. Like just get him in short leverage stuff. Maybe you can keep him healthy. So I would say he fits the perfect mold of like this strider. What type of role does he have in the year? And hopefully 150 plus innings and a big fantasy season ahead. Wow.

So I just pulled up the last seven days of NFBC ADP to see how much Hunter Brown has climbed. 184 is the ADP going just behind who? Grayson Rodriguez. So you have to make the decision. Who do you want? Welsh? What do you want? I think, oh, I think I do want

Grayson. I agree. Like, I have a really hard time not taking it. There's also something so special to me about him working with Adley again. But Hunter might be able to push in. I think they're pretty close on innings. I think these are dead close,

but I would probably take, like someone could come and take over that Hunter Brown roll. I'm not saying that that's not a possibility. And I don't think that's going to happen with Grayson, so I would take him. Towers, how about you? Yeah, I would go with Grayson. I think there are a lot of things to like about Hunter Brown, but I think Grayson's a more talented player, and he's got a more guaranteed role. So I'll just go with that. I took this exercise way too literally, and I'm kind of hedging my bet here. I'm going to give you two names. Luis Ortiz of the Pirates and D.L. Hall of the Orioles.

So I wanted to find pitchers with big velocity, a big breaking ball, struggles with control. just like Spencer Shrider. And we don't know with both of these guys what their role is going to be entering the season. So I think it's perfect. Luis Ortiz. Obviously, the pirates aren't playing for much this year. I think before long, they're going to give him a shot. He's someone I know, you know, Eno Saris loves a lot too. So I've heard him talk about. Fun fact, Frank. I just want to tell you to me too. Didn't interrupt you. But in the Scott White Auction League, I screwed up and messed up myself because you and I decided to get into bidding war of Jim and joy. And I screwed up because. Because my entire plan was to go after Luis Ortiz. That's who I wanted. But for some reason, I got so compelled about needing that first basement because I only had Hosmer. I did it. And then I did not have the guns. I didn't have the bullets to get in on Luis Ortiz.

And I was really upset about that. So you had Eric Hosmer on your team. And you outbid me on G. Man Choy. You wouldn't let me have G. Man Choy in a 24 team. Because I had Eric Cosmer. I had Eric Cosmer. What am I supposed to do?

Do you guys understand? G. Man Choy and like Christian Betancourt was all that was left at that position. Oh, I know. It was it. I know. My starting first baseman in the Scott White Dynasty League is a platoon of Lamont Wade and Harold Ramirez.

So making me feel really good about my Tray Mancini for $20. Oh, you got an All-Star. Oh, gosh. It's so gross. D.L. Hall, similar thing. I think he's got some nasty secondary pitches. He can't command the fastball. He throws hard.

He's a left-handed pitcher. I think there's lots alike. He probably starts out in a bullpen roll. He's been slowed down by a back injury to start. But eventually, if he works into the rotation, I think there could be a lot of upside with D.L. Hall. All right, that is, who is this year's blank? Lots of fun names there.

Quickly run through news and notes because I want to ask the Welsh some questions about what's going on there. What's going out in Arizona, outside of the snow, of course. Some news and notes, Brenda Rogers has significant damage to the capsule of his left shoulder and could be facing season-ending surgery. Harold Castro and Cole Tucker are both non-raster invites.

I don't know who else could potentially play second or shortstop for this team, unless they make a move. So if anything happens to Rogers, it's probably those next two names up, and that's pretty gross. Joe Musgrove is expected to miss at least two regular season starts as he recovers from a fractured toe. Cubs manager David Ross said,

It's not bad though. Yeah? Like obviously at least is, you know, carrying a lot of weight. But like, if he really only misses like 12 days of the regular season, he's probably still worth a top 100 pick. I was at Padres Camp the day it happened and the news broke down. And one of the coaches, one of the fans yelled to the, I don't remember the coach, I think it was like a veiler or something. And they just like, hey, how's Joe? Is he going to be okay?

And the coach, he was like, doesn't look good. And I was like, wow, I'm surprised he even said that. That's way better than we thought. And I got him at 130 in TGFBI because of this scare. and I feel very good about that after hearing about the only two misstarts. Yeah, I mean, that's a good point. And the other day when it happened, I kind of assumed, all right, maybe he misses two or three starts to start the year.

I didn't lower him in my rankings because he represents the end of a tier. Like, I don't want to move him behind Robbie Ray and Trista McKenzie if he's only going to miss two or three starts. So I did wind up moving Musgrove down for now. But if this actually comes to fruition, I'm going to move him back up inside my top 30 starting pitchers. Cubs manager, David Ross, said, Niko Horn. corner will be his leadoff hitter to begin the season.

Nice little breakout last year. He hit 280 with 10 home runs and 20 steals. Makes a lot of contact, just an 11% strikeout rate. Noah Cindergards fastball has topped out at 93 miles per hour so far in Dodgers camp. That's according to Juan Terribio of MLB.com. Jack Flaherty had his Grapefruit League debut push back to Sunday due to lower half discomfort. Poor guy just can't stay healthy. Cubs President Jed Hoyer said Sayas Suzuki is in quote,

strong jeopardy of missing the start of the regular season with that oblique injury. Oblick injuries are so tough because it's just like, it really seems like obliques more than any other injury. There's just like a really wide timetable and it's you have to be so, so careful with them because you see so many setbacks with oblique injuries. That's like, I guess he could be back for opening day. It wouldn't surprise me if he was out until May. Yeah. That's just kind of how these things work. Obliques are really, really tricky for hitters too. David Peralta is expected to start in left field versus right-handed pitching with Trace Thompson in the short side of the platoon. Tanner Howe could be in line to open the season in the

Red Sox rotation with Garrett Whitlock and Brian Bayo behind schedule. He does have SPARP eligibility on CBS and I want him in the Scott. He was a very bad today. Uh, was his spring debut? I believe so. If I'm remembering correctly, I think I saw that. You're probably right. Trying to find the, for some reason. I thought he read really well. And I was, I was excited to draft him. Four walks. No runs or hits in an inning and a third,

but four walks, two strikeouts. Yeah, so not great. Kind of a mixed bag. More bad than good, honestly. Daniel Hudson is unlikely to be ready for opening day due to right ankle tendonitis. That's big news, because we could be starting a season

with Evan Phillips in the rotation. Not in the rotation, in the closer's role. Dio Hall will not be ready to start by opening day. He's dealing with a back injury and won't have enough time to be stretched out.

I mentioned Ozzi Albi. thinks he's going to go 40-40 this season and Yankees catcher prospect, Austin Wells, will be sidelined six to eight weeks with a fractured rib. What is the word with the Welsh? Well, let's find out. Come on, baby, tell me, what's the word?

Wait up. Another week of Bullpens with Jacob de Grom and Welsh, how's he looking out there? Yeah, I was lucky. I was actually lucky enough to be there when he threw the session up on the video. If you guys are checking out on the YouTube, we can see it here. You got Bruce Bochie on the,

right, Mike Maddox in the middle. DeGrom through a pretty intense session. You saw a point where he kind of like edged a little bit and you were like, oh, is he okay? This was like round three of what looked like a ton of fastballs. I think he threw 40 to 50 pitches. The entire organization was out there. Chris Young, the GM was there. All the pitchers were watching. You can't see them to the right. Jack Lighter is over there. Dane Dunning. They're all watching him. Maybe, you know, freaking out like y'all kind of expect. But he looked good. He was. Hidden zones. They actually use these ropes. It's really interesting on the backstop of the catchers. You could see it in my Jack Leiter video. There's these ropes that represent the zone. And it was zone every single time.

Definitely not like when Kumar Rocker throws. Jacob de Grom was pumping the zone every single time. He seemed comfortable. It was cold here as well, just pointing out. And he was smiling after, which was like, I was paying attention to him after it was all done just to see, was everything okay? Was he holding anything? but I think this is a really, really good sign because I believe he's throwing one more session and then he's getting in a game. So I think that's going to line up to, I think, probably late next week, mid to late next week, he could get into his first game because he's going to throw one more session, which I was speculating is going to be maybe Sunday. So very, very encouraging for Jacob de Grom. Towers, does this change anything for you when it comes to DeGrom? I kind of feel like we're exactly where we were last offseason. and you made a great point then.

You said, all right, he might be healthy now. I have no idea if this means he's going to be healthy in the season. Yeah, I didn't move him down when this happened because it was, it appeared to be minor enough that it just didn't, it didn't move me one way or the other. I've got him as my number eight starting pitcher. I don't feel great about that in either direction, frankly. That's one that like I could move him three spots higher or five spots lower and I could totally justify it either way. So I haven't moved him down. It's not a situation where for me, it's not like, is Jacob de Grom healthy?

It's can he stay healthy? That's the bigger question. If he's healthy, he's going to be, I think, the best pitcher in baseball. And so I haven't really moved him at all yet. We got some video of Blake Snell versus Juan Soto, and I'll pull that up. How did Snell look, in your opinion? He's someone that I've been targeting as an SP3. It's him and Lance Lynn, depending on what I've needed.

I mean, those are the two that I keep falling back on as an SP3. What do you think about Blake Snell? And can we get that slider? Can we get more of the slider, please? Well, I love Blake Snell, and I'm drafting all of it. What I found very fascinating, this session was against Nelson Cruz and Juan Soto. They went up against each other, I want to say three or four times. And he sorted Soto a couple times.

This is a long at bat where the most important thing was I didn't see a change up. And right there, the very first pitch we're watching, he blows a fastball by Soto, takes him to his knees. He ends up throwing like a curveball in one or two pitches that actually hits this camera behind. And I just didn't see the changeup working. He was trying to, you know, pump slider on the outside.

This was the pitch mix that I wanted. And Nelson Cruz and Soto didn't make great contact against him. So he pumped a second fastball right past one Soto. I thought it was really, really great stuff. He mixed it around. Best hit we saw. was Soto hitting something opposite field left, but it probably would have been caught.

Neither one of them got great contact on him. He looked pretty confident, even after, which I think this is going to be the, I guess it's the next one. There's, oh, no, that was the one right there,

where it bounced and it hit the camera behind. It was really, really impressive stuff. I think he felt really confident. And, you know, you see him succeed against Juan Soda. You kind of feel good about it. It's just a session on the backfield, though.

But I just love not seeing, you know, the change up. Yeah. That's what I don't want to see. Obviously, we don't want to put too much stock into that curveball was insane for those watching us here on YouTube.

I don't want to put too much stock into something like this, but he made tangible changes last year, and in the second half, Blake Snell was tremendous. So, I mean, we've been begging him for years, hey, just get rid of the change-up, throw slider curveball, and big things can happen. I know this is kind of anecdotal,

but Towers, I kind of buy into the contract year thing. It just wouldn't surprise me if Blake Snell goes out and he shoves, and he's like, okay, contract year, goes out, has an awesome season, and then someone pays him big money next off season. Yeah, he's in a blob at starting pitcher for me. Like, he's 35, so I think I'm neither out nor in on him. I think I'm right around where he belongs.

There are guys I like more. I think I like Master Cortez more. If I'm going a little earlier, I think I like Chris Sale a little more in that same range. I think, I don't know, Blake's not probably what he is, right? Like, it's one of those, the, the analysis. that I like to use is like, we get mad at Blake Snell for being

inconsistent. We're like, why can't you be more consistent? And it's like, it's like going outside on a sunny day and staring at the sun and then getting mad at the sun that your eyes are hurting. Like, you knew what the sun was. You know what Blake Snell is. He's probably not going to give you a ton

of innings. He's probably going to give you very, very good strikeout numbers per inning. ERA and whip? Ah, that's the question. It's not a profile that I love. It's hard to see a path to 180 innings for him. I think even 150 innings is probably a little iffy. Even at his best, he's never been efficient.

So it's not a player I love. I don't hate him, but I don't see myself drafting a lot of Blake Snow. July 1st on, 5th best K percentage among starters and the tied for fourth best K per 9 from July 1st on. I buy into everything you're saying. I just, I'm a sucker for big strikeouts. He was pretty dominant July 1st on during the year. And he's on a fantastic team with the San Diego Padres too. So not going to go as deep as like other workhorses into his starts because he hit.

He is inefficient Blake's now. But, you know, if he goes five or six, might give you a good shot at a win. Let's wrap up here. Well, she did an hour long interview with Drew Jones, the second overall pick with the Diamondbacks last season. And people can listen to that entire interview over on Prospect One. Did you get anything juicy? How's the shoulder rehab?

coming anything you learned from Jew Jones. Well, I definitely didn't get an hour. The episode is an hour. I got about 10 minutes with Drew. Fair enough. I was in, I was, that'd be awesome if I did. We would have talked about tons of stuff. I was invited to the Topps Spot House where essentially what it was.

It was like all these guys come to autograph their cards. Corby and Carol was there when I was there. Matt Mervis was there signing cards. And I was given an opportunity to chat with Drew. And he's a very fascinating kid. One of the first questions out of my mouth was, asking about how the shoulder was and had he spoken to either Loller or Carol, he said he did. He wasn't going to detail about it. But the best thing out of it was that he said he is going to

be playing in minor league spring training games here. And I think that's kind of been in question. I actually saw him the next day and he was in uniform, hitting in the cages and going on the backfield. So when minor league spring training starts up in about a week and a half, he'll be playing in games, which I think is fantastic for his entire rehab process. And it's going to be, You know, where Jackson Holiday has been in everybody's face, I think it's to be really good for people to start seeing, like, what he can do. I also chatted with him about that very, as far as he goes, this famous moment where all those kids were booing him. And then he crushes this Homer when he's hitting 500.

And I asked him, we talked about that moment. And he was actually excited to talk about that. A few things, he was a little like, you know, very athlete answery. He was pretty forthcoming on that specific one. But yeah, it was a good conversation, very smart kid, almost taller than me, and I'm almost six foot four. So maybe it was just how I was standing. But very, very, very talented kid. And yeah, you can check it out over at Prospect One.

And hopefully I'll have some video here for you soon of him actually in game because that is what we want. A completely healthy Drew Jones. All right. We're going to wrap there for the Chris is Towers and the Welsh. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow with a mailbag. Bye-bye!