Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Christian Walker to the Astros, Josh Naylor Traded to the Guardians! - Emergency Podcast (12/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 22, 2024

To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ We had a bunch of first base moves this weekend, starting with Christian Walkers to the Astros (2:19)! ... The Yankees pivoted by signing Paul Goldschmidt (8:21). ... The Guardians traded Josh Naylor to the Dbacks for Slade Cecconi and a compensation pick (18:27). ... The Guardians then signed Carlos Santana (25:00). ... In non first base news, the Phillies acquired Jesus Luzardo (33:50)! ... Before we wrap up, RIP to the great Rickey Henderson (46:25). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. You get a first baseman, you get a first baseman. And well, the Phillies, you get Jesus Lazzardo. Welcome into a bonus edition of Fantasy Baseball today on Sunday, December 22nd. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Chris Towers. It was a great weekend to be a first baseman. So much movement. Christian Walker signed with the Astros, Paul Gulchman to the Yankees.

Josh Naylor traded over to the debacks, and Carlos Santana is coming home. He signed with the Guardians. And then on Sunday morning, we got a non-first base move transaction as the Phillies acquired Jesus Lazzardo. So we'll break it all down. We had a pre-recorded podcast set to come out on Tuesday, but there was a lot of movements. We had to do one. It made sense to go live for all this stuff. Let's begin with Christian Walker over to the Astros on a three-year $60 million deal.

Great signing for them. Admittedly wanted the Yankees to make this move as well, which they didn't. But they got Paul Gulchman. more on that in just a bit. Walker, one of the premier power-hitting first baseman in the game, and he is an amazing defender. He's won three straight Gold Glove Awards. And Chris, it's hard to think of a better landing spot just in terms of ballpark.

He's got those Crawford boxes in the left field and the lineup context. The top five of that Astros lineup looks pretty damn good. Look, the Diamondbacks were the highest scoring team in baseball last year. They were amazing, too. From that perspective, I suppose you'd rather Walker. have gone back, but look, he is three years, 60 million feels a little light for Christian Walker, right? Like you look at some of the dollar values being thrown out there and a three straight gold glover with basically three straight 30 homer seasons. He would have gotten there last year, if not for that oblique injury that cost him about a month.

Like, that's a really reasonable deal. But then you remember, because he hasn't been around as long as some of the other guys in his, age, you forget the Christian Walker's about to turn 34 years old, a couple days, I think the day after opening day next year. So it, I don't know, I get a little bit of a Jose Abraeu vibe here. Oh, no. Like similar point in his career, similar player. Hopefully it goes better than that. But look, that's why Walker was relatively cheap despite the fact that he was very highly sought after on the free agent market. A lot of teams, including the Yankees, were in on him and we're looking for a first base upgrade.

So it's a good landing spot for him. I don't think it really changes anything about his value specifically. It might be a case where his ADP moves up just because he was unsigned. And we talked about this a little bit in the most recent episode where in these way too early drafts, people just get scared away of a guy like Christian Walker who like was always going to sign somewhere and probably somewhere pretty good. So I would guess his ADP ticks up a little bit moving forward, but he's going right around 100 overall.

And some of the other first baseman in that range are like Tristan Kossis, Josh Naylor. I think you can put him, I don't know, he's 10 spots behind Josh Nailer in December ADP. I think they're pretty similar. So right around 100 makes sense. sense. I wouldn't move him down, certainly. There's no way he can move into the like Pete Alonzo range at first base. So he's pretty solidly at the top of like that third tier or maybe second

tier. I don't know how you want to break that up. But at the position, good bet for 30 homers, good bet for 100 RBI, 90-ish runs probably. But there is some risk of the bottom falling out because of his age. So that's the one thing you really have to be concerned about. But it's not much of a concern given how really stunningly consistent he's been in recent years. Over the past three years, Christian Walker's 231 ISO is third among qualified first baseman. The power is still legit. The quality of contact still looks amazing. I do think it's a park upgrade.

Though he has the type of power where I think it would play regardless of ballpark. But yes, obviously, Houston is a great place to be a right-handed power hitter with that short porch in left field. You mentioned the 80P. I think over the past three years, according to expected home runs, he would have had three more in Houston than Arizona. So it's an upgrade, certainly, but not a significant one, despite it being a better place to hit. You mentioned the ADP in December. There have been 61 drafts done over at the NFBC. Christian Walker at 106.4.

He's the eighth first basement off the board. He's just after Josh Naler. Salvador Perez has first base eligibility, so I don't really want to include him in this. Let's say Christian Walker is the seventh first basement off the board. I think there's a clear top five. There's Vlad Jr., Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Pete Alonzo, in whatever order you want to put them,

but that is a clear top five to me. I think Christian Walker should be six, personally. Like, I would take him ahead of Josh Nailer. I don't know how you feel about that. And I'm not sure, like, Pete Alonzo certainly has the higher ceiling, but they're not that different. Production hasn't been that different the past couple of years. You have the higher peaks for Alonzo,

but we don't know what lineup he's going to end up in. So he's one that I do think will probably end up slipping a little more, but probably not anywhere close to this range. I think Walker, if you want to put him at the top of that tier, that like Josh Naylor, Tristan Kossus, I'd throw Cody Bellinger in there after the trade to the Yankees. He is first base eligible. So like if you want to throw him at the top of that tier, I think that makes sense.

If you want to, if you prefer the upside, the unknown of Casas or the potential speed that you could get from Cody Bellinger, I get that. Even Josh Naylor, who we'll talk about shortly because he was on the move. We have seen both the big power season and the big batting average season from Josh Naylor, something we haven't seen from Christian Walker. So if you wanted to say there's still a chance Josh Naylor puts it all together like he did. in the first half last year when the batting average was a little stronger. I could see that case, but yeah, he seems as good a choice as anyone for the number six spot Christian Walker does. Yeah, I think he probably moves up about 10 spots, whether that's warranted.

Yeah, for some reason, some players just move up a little bit after they sign in ADP. I think very clearly a top 100 pick. And for me, he's going to be ranked as the sixth first baseman there after that top five. Let's talk about the Yankees because they pivoted here. And for a while, it looked like Christian Walker was going to wind up with the Yankees. But instead, they go with Paul Gulchman on a one year, $12.5 million deal entering his age 37 season. And coming off the worst year of his 14-year Hall of Fame career, he had 245, 22 home runs, 11 steals with a 716 OPS. The strikeouts were up.

The walks were down. This very well could be the end of Paul Goldschmidt. We've said that before and then he bounced back. But he's a little bit older now. Chris, what do you think about his value with the New York Yankees? Oh, I don't know. I'm loath to just write him off and say this is the end because like you said, I think we kind of did that before with Paul Goldschmidt.

And it ended up being a mistake. Now, the difference was the last time we wrote Paul Goldschmidt off, it was five years ago. And it was an 822 OPS he was coming off of. It was just the strike rate was increasing over a couple of. couple of years, the batting average had collapsed. It looked like he was cheating to get to the power he was getting to. And then 2021, 2022, he bounces back to MVP level in 2022, especially. I, again, it looks like Paul Goldschmidt is having to cheat to get to the power. He still

hits the quality of contact metrics are actually pretty uniformly excellent, not elite, but 92nd percentile hard hit rate, 82nd percentile average exit velocity. ex-Wobah still pretty strong in the 65th percentile 329 last year. He did underperform to a 310 mark. So if you're looking for a reason to be optimistic, that's one. The other one would be he cut the strikeout rate down to 23.6% in the second half of the season, which is right around where it was in 2020. 23% in the month of September.

And he was much better in the second half. I think it was a 799 OPS in the second half overall right around there in September. as well. So that's not far off from what you're expecting from a Christian Walker or a Josh Naler or or the other first basement in that range. It's just that's not actually what Goldschmidt did last year. Last year, the overall OPS was 716. The power was okay. Look, it's a better lineup. It's a better ballpark. I think you can be optimistic about Paul Golds. If you want. And I think this move puts him back in the like corner outfield range of the position.

I don't think you want Paul Gulchman as you're starting first baseman in any 12 team league. In a 15 team league, I mean, look, I've got Spencer Steer 12. I've got Paul Goldschmidt 13. Then it's Jake Berger, Luis Arayes, Michael Tolia, Christian Encarnacion Strand, Michael Bush. Like it's a pretty lousy position once you get outside of that top 12. So in a 15 team league, I think Paul Goldschmidt probably is a starting first baseman. I think he's probably the first first baseman who should be picked as a corner infielder. I do have him ahead of Jake Berger, which is a little bit of a hot take, I know, because Burger's ADP is about 70 spots ahead of Goldschman.

And actually, I think almost 80. Burgers went up after the trade, which I certainly didn't think it should have. I don't know if you agree, but I think there's a lot more playing time risk for Jake Berger in Texas. I think there's a non-zero chance. Jake Berger's not an everyday player fairly quickly in Texas if he gets off to a slow start like he did last year. And he feels like a real non-tender candidate next year if he doesn't put up a really big season. So given the depth that they have, the positional flexibility that the Rangers have, I think there's more risk for Berger losing playing time than there is for Goldschmidt.

There's just a bigger chance Goldschmidt's just done. Yeah, there absolutely is that chance. And maybe, you know, I've got my Yankee hat on, not actually right now, rose-colored glasses. I think he can bounce back Paul Goldschmidt and be solid or at least come close to what he did last season. You mentioned it's a park upgrade. This was surprising. According to Stackcast, Yankee Stadium is second for right-handed home run park factors. Normally, we know it plays much better for left-handed power. Not usually, you know, regard as a great ballpark for right-handed power. But according to Stackast, it is very good. And Bush Stadium was 22nd. So it's a big park upgrade. He's going to bat somewhere in the middle of that Yankees lineup. I don't know if they're completely done yet. There might be one kind of smaller move there. But I would guess, Gulchman bat somewhere four through six in the Yankees line. Yeah.

I think the way that they're kind of built right now, I think Jazz, Judge, Bellinger, and then one of Stanton or Goldschmidt makes sense as like the top four or top five for the Yankees lineup. The NFBC ADP in December is 201.8. Gultzman is the 16th first baseman

off the board. You have to think there's a bit of a Yankee tax here. He's going to move up. There's no doubt about it. How high does he move? I mean, Michael Tolia is at 185. Rises at 180. I take him over both of those guys. I think those guys are a little high, but I would rather have Paul Goldschmidt than either Tolia or Luis Arise.

There is a huge chasm in first base ADP because you have Bellinger and Jake Berger are right around 125. And then the next first base eligible player is Luis Arise at 180. So that is a huge drop. And my guess is Goldschmidt will kind of fall somewhere in between there. Is it? I have him at the top of that next two. Yeah.

160, 170, 175 is something like that for Paul Goldschmidt as a corner infield player. I think that's totally fine for fantasy. I would maybe expect 240 to 250, 20 home runs and 8 to 10 steal, something like that. That's an okay player. You know, it's not a league winner, but, you know, again, I think it's a pretty solid corner infielder. And I think there's room for something like 265 and 25 homers. You know, like I think I won't say that's the upside, but I think that's a, A reasonable optimist case for Paul Gulchman now.

Yeah, I think what I said is probably a median projection. What you said is probably closer to the upside. The downside is he could just be completely awful. And he's done, right? He could be, by June 1st, he could be batting 220 with... He's 37. Seven home runs. Yeah.

There's, you know, there is that risk, obviously, with Gulchman. And I did want to throw a theory out there because I wanted Christian Walker on the Yankees. I know other fans wanted him as well. I think the Yankees preferred a one-year deal. because they plan to go big for one of the free agents next offseason. Kyle Tucker, Vlad Jr., if he gets to free agency. I think he probably will. But that's just kind of my-

I have heard this specific brand of Yankee fan cope before. They were supposed to sign Nolan Aeronado when he was going to be a free agent. Yeah. Look, I understand. I agree. I think that's probably the hope. It's just, what's the saying about birds in hand

versus birds in the bush? Uh, you'd rather just have the guys now than like, you know, they traded for Juan Soto a year ago and then he left because some other team was willing to go for more money. You know, you can't actually count on that. Yeah. But I think the, the tradeoff here is, all right, you lose out on Christian Walker, who's a very good player. But if you can get, you know, a superstar caliber, it's a little different. Christian Walker is a very good player, but it's like a three win player in real life terms, right? Like he is not someone who is a superstar franchise changing guy.

And at his age, there's also the chance that this ends really poorly. So I think if you were, if you have to make the bet on the 30 year old, the mid 30s first basement, you'd rather do it on the one year deal than the three year deal, I think. Yep. All right. Let's take a quick break when we return. The replacement for Christian Walker in Arizona. That will be Josh Naler.

Let's talk about that right after. Welcome back in bonus edition of Fantasy Baseball today here on Sunday, December 22nd, right before NFL kickoff. And we are breaking down a lot of first base moves. We mentioned Christian Walker leaves the D-backs to sign with the Astros. Well, the D-backs replaced Walker by trading for Josh Naylor. They gave up right-handed pitcher Slade Sikoni and their 2025 competitive balance round B-pick in exchange for Nailer who's coming off a career year. He's also entering his final year of team control. He hit 243 with 31 home runs,

108 RBI, six deals, and a 776 OPS. He was a top 40 player in Roto. He averaged 3.4 fantasy points per game. Amazing season for Josh Naylor, Chris, is no doubt about it. Finally, managed to stay healthy and put it all together. I would say this is a sell high trade for the Guardians. I just don't think the return was all that great. What do you think about the fit for Josh Nailer in Arizona?

I mean, I think this tells you what first basemen are worth on the trade market, especially first basemen who are good bats, but not elite bats, and don't exactly do a lot else. He's not a guy who brings any value with his base running. He's not a great defensive first baseman. So like, it was a career year, and I think he was like a two and a half win player. So in real life, it feels underwhelming. Like, I don't think Slate Saccone is really much of anything. and the 40th pick or 50th pick, whatever it ends up being in the draft, is pretty underwhelming as well.

But that's probably what a first base only guy about to hit free agency is going to be worth, especially when he's not a true impact bat. I think Josh Niller is probably a guy who's better in fantasy than in real life, especially what he did last season. Now the caveat with what he did last season is, Cleveland weirdly played very, very well for left-handed power last season. saw Jose Ramirez almost did he have a career high homers or he got very close close to it and you know that was because they changed some of the seating configurations it seemed to create a

wind tunnel effect in right field that really helped uh left-handed hitters in particular the left-handed home run pack park factor in Cleveland last year was the fifth best in baseball which is a huge improvement from where it had been one year park factors are very very noisy we typically go with three year rolling samples. So that that's a tougher one. But like it's pretty clearly a better home run park now if that was real than Arizona, which rates as one of the worst for left hand of power. So I think on the whole it's probably a downgrade for Naylor,

except it's a significant lineup upgrade. And you have to think he's going to, you know, slot in right around the top of that order, probably third. And the one thing about Josh Naylor that's always been true is he outperforms expectations in RBI. You know, especially the first couple, the last couple of years before last year, he was putting up like 130 RPI paces in 2022 and 2023. With his skill set, with the ability to hit for consistent contact while hitting for power, you know, a strikeout rate right around 16%. career best power year last year, but even if he's more of a 20 to 25 homer guy, he hits a lot of doubles. So this is one where like dark horse to lead the NL in RBI now, I think Josh Naler because of the like he had 97 RBI and 121 games in 2023.

Then he had 108 last year. I think you expect 100 RBI and I think there's 115 RBI upside at the top of this Cleveland lineup. So like, whether you take, you know, Nailer versus Walker versus Casas, I would throw Bellinger, maybe Pasquantino in there if you want to, you know, similar skill set. I think that tier at first base looks pretty solid. And I think you can make the case for Nailer at the top of it. I would probably put Walker at the top, but it's perfectly reasonable to put Nailer. Yeah, I completely agree with the lineup context.

There's no doubt. The Guardians were 14th and run scored. were first and it was not close. They scored 886 runs last season. The Dodgers were second at 842. Now, it is a pretty big park downgrade if progressive field continues to play that well for left-handed power. And speaking of which, Josh Naylor was awesome at home last season.

He hit 269 with 17 home runs and an 852 OPS in Cleveland. Away from Cleveland, 218, 14 homers, 699 OPS. And he did get worse in the second half. The power metrics took a step back, the quality of contact. His barrel rate went from 10.6% in the first half to 5.3% in the second half. Chris, I think I was going to be off Josh Naylor regardless. And now the fact that it's a tougher part to hit lefties, it's probably a neutral move overall for Josh Naylor.

I don't think I'm going to pay a top 100 pick for him. And maybe that turns out to be wrong. He's entering a contract year. He could lead the National League in RBI. You're absolutely right about that. I would take Christian Walker ahead of him. And I think Nailor versus Cody Bellinger to me is a really interesting conversation. I think it comes down to what your team needs, right?

Because you can look at Bellinger and see, you know, he got to 20 stolen bases two years ago. So you could look at him and see, well, if he's going to be a 15 to 20 stolen base guy at first base, you know, depending on the team that you're building, that could really help. So I can see the case for it. I really think that that group is very close. You know, the ADP's not really. there's like a 30 pick difference between Bellinger and Naylor in the month of December. I think they should all be within 10 or 15. And it mostly comes down to what you're looking for.

If you're looking for RBI, I think Naylor's probably the best choice. If you're looking for power, maybe Christian Walker, if you're looking for a more well-rounded group, you know, then you take on Cody Bellinger. So I don't have a super strong sense.

Like the gap between Walker, who is my number not counting, Salvador Perez, he's my number six first baseman, and Spencer Steer, who's number 12, is, it's about 17 picks in my overall ranking. So it might just be a whoever goes last situation among those six names. And you might wonder,

what the heck are the Guardians doing? But then they went out and they signed Carlos Santana to a one-year deal, replace Josh Nealer. I didn't think they needed to do this. Yeah, because they have Kyle Manzardo waiting in the wings, but Chris, that lineup is just so shallow. There's no protection for Jose Ramirez.

I don't mind this deal for Carlos Santana. And in fact, it kind of makes trading Josh Naylor a little bit more palatable because they were, what they signed Santana to was, I think, a little bit more than what Josh Naylor was set to earn this upcoming season. but Santana is a much better defensive first baseman, much better real-life player. And he still has a little bit of punch left in that bat. So let's talk about Carlos Santana.

Welcome back to the Cleveland Guardians, one-year, $12 million deal. He's turning 39 years old, but just posted 2.5 war. He hit 238, 23 home runs and back-to-back seasons, just won a gold glove at first base. So from a real-life perspective, I think it's an okay move for Cleveland. and if Progressive Park plays up well for left-handed power,

then we could have a pretty sneaky corner infielder here for fantasy as well. And that's what Carlos Santana's been in the past two seasons. He doesn't really ever get credit for it, and he's not someone that anybody really talks about. But yeah, you look at the numbers last season, 23 homers, the RBI and run totals were pretty underwhelming, but you think playing every day in Cleveland could help that. I could absolutely see a scenario where he hits 20 to 25 homers again,

but drives in and scores 80 runs each, you know, batting behind Jose Ramirez. And all of a sudden, you know, that's a pretty solid player. It's just, is there a ceiling here? I don't think so. You know, we're talking about a 39-year-old or soon-to-be 39-year-old, basically right after opening day. Really good plate discipline, but more helpful in an OBP league. And even there, 328 last year, because the batting average is going to be.

really bad. He's one of those guys where you look at the bab-up and it's like, oh, he only had a 252 babbip. Well, that's his second highest since 2019. He just, he does not, he can't move around very well on the bases. His swing is not geared towards batting average. So there are limitations. I think on the whole, Cleveland might have just broken even on this. It might, it might just be, they didn't really lose anything. I think they lost some, some ceiling for their, lineup, but the overall players probably aren't that much different in terms of their likely value for 2025. So I think it's interesting.

I don't know if they needed another first baseman, but they need lineup depth. That's a good point. So I get it. And hopefully this still means Kyle Manzardo can play pretty much every day as DH, because, yeah, you look at the rest of that lineup, and it's pretty rough. I don't know, like. Boy, Lane Thomas, Will Brennan, Juan Brito, Bo Nailer, Brian Rokio. The back half of that lineup is bad.

It's really bad. And so that's why I say, like, I don't know if first base was actually that big of a need because you could have played Manzardo at first base. I would give Young Kenzie Noel a chance at either DH or one of those corner outfield spots. I would rather have spent that money somewhere else, but I get it. I understand that just, we just need bats in Cleveland. So I can't complain too much about it. Yeah, for Carlos Santana, the NFBC ADP in December is 632, the 34th first basement off the board.

Look, no one's excited to draft Carlos Santana. I get that. But 23 home runs, two years in a row again, you know, 230 to 250 batting average somewhere in there. He's a totally fine deep league corner infielder. I think there's a pretty solid floor there, despite the age. He seems rock solid.

And I think the ADP moves up closer to that range of Andrew Vaughn, Jake Crono. Yeah, it should be like 350-ish. Yeah, Jamer Candelario, just as a boring CI in a deeper league. I think that's totally fair for Carlos Santana. Just looking back at this Guardians lineup, the top four right now as of, according to roster resource, Stephen Kwan, Kyle Manzardo, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, and then... That's pretty cool. It's not bad, but then...

after that. It gets bad fast. Lane Thomas, Will Brennan, Wann, Brito, bow nailer, Brian Rokio.

I think there's a good chance they still trade Lane Thomas. I don't think they're in love with the player. I think we could maybe see Chase the Latter, who is,

you know, their top outfield prospect get a chance early on in the season. And maybe he helps, but again, there's not a track record there. We don't know exactly

what he's going to do. So it's, I would take the under on Cleveland Cardians run scored, at least if we're comparing it to what they just did this past season. But it does make you pretty optimistic about Chase DeLotter's chances of being up pretty quickly. He hasn't, the problem is he's just barely played because of injuries.

It's like 50 games over the past two seasons or something. That might actually be overshooting it. So it's just a question of how quickly they think he can be ready. But there was talk about him getting called up two years ago if he had been healthy. So I do think on the whole, you just look at Cleveland's lineup, and it's not that hard to see a path for Chase to Lodder fairly quickly. Chris, does this at all make you want to lower Jose Ramirez a little bit? Does he give you a little bit pause when drafting him inside the top five?

Maybe you just look and turn to a younger player and a Gunner Henderson or Ellie De La Cruz, someone like that instead of Jose Ramirez? I don't think so because like, what's the difference between Cleveland's lineup last year and Cleveland's lineup this year, right? It's mostly Josh Naylor being replaced by Carlos Santana, right? I guess Andres Jimenez was a loss. But he wasn't great either. Yeah, like he was a good player, but he wasn't a great hitter.

So I don't know. I don't have much concern about it. I think like if you get a full season, Monsardo with what he showed in September, especially. and, you know, I would like to see a little more consistent playing time for young Kency Noel just because I think that that lineup just desperately needs upside and he absolutely brings that to the table. Santana for Naylor, probably a pretty lateral move. So I don't think it changes much.

Like you shouldn't expect 40 homers, 40 doubles and 40 steals again from Jose Ramirez. That's just really tough to ask for. But I don't think the situation. has changed enough to drop him, given how strong the overall skill set remains. Okay, so you're taking Jose Ramirez, is he your fourth-ranked player? Do you only have Otani, Bobby Witt, Aaron Judge ahead of him,

and then you get to J-Ran right there? That's the way it is, yes. All right. Let's take one more break, and when we return, some non-first-based news, Jesus Lazzardo was traded to the Phillies. We'll talk about that right after this.

Welcome back in, breaking down a bunch of moves from this weekend, and the latest we got Jesus Lazzardo was traded over to the Phillies in exchange for two prospects, shortstop, Starlin Kaba, and outfielder and Marion Boyd. And this feels like a good by-low gamble for the Phillies. No idea if Jesus Lazzardo can stay healthy.

He's dealt with forearm and elbow strains. He had a lumbar stress reaction in his back. But we brought this up on our previous podcast, when Lazzardo's healthy, 50 starts with the Marlins over 2022 and 2023, a 348 and a 1548 ERA 115. So if he's healthy, I still think he has the upside to be like an SP2 or SP3 for fantasy. Yeah, and given this return, it's a little frustrating that the Marlins traded him at this moment, if this was what the return was going to be.

But it was always going to be an incredibly difficult needle to thread for Miami with Hazus Lazardo, because you either trade him now for what is probably a discount relative to what he could be worth in six months if he gets off to a good start. Given his history, though, and we're talking about a guy who I believe has had Tommy John surgery twice, definitely at least once, has had a bunch of injuries, including shoulder issues, dating back to his time with Oakland, forum issue last year, the back issue that limited him or kept him out. entire second half. You just have no idea what you're going to get. But even from a performance perspective, the thing about Lazzardo is, and this was something that,

you know, Ceres pointed out last preseason, the differences between the very, very good versions of Hesos Lazzardo that we saw in 2022 and 2023 and the pretty disappointing to bad ones that we saw in like 2020,

2021, and last year ended up being about one mile per hour in fastball velocity. Like when he's sitting 96 plus consistently, he's really good. If he's below 96, he tends to be pretty mediocre. And that's a really narrow range that you have to live in. The curve or the changeup and slider are both really good swing and miss pitches.

But the fastball is just really hit or miss. And when he's not on with that, he doesn't have great movement profiles on it, doesn't have a good attack angle, all that stuff. So it's just kind of, it's a very iffy profile, even if Hazel Zazzardo is healthy. And it's always a question of how healthy is he even when he's on the mound. So I understand, like my preference would have been if you couldn't get, like there was the rumor of Owen Casey from the Cubs. If you could get him, I would do that trade. If not, I would have rather let him try to rebuild his value.

But there's a chance he gets to spring training pitches in one. one game and doesn't pitch again all season. Yeah. So I understand the, the desire to get what you can for him now in a, in a market that is valuing starting pitchers.

So I can't complain too much from that perspective as a Marlins fan. And then for Lazzardo, much better team context, it's a big park downgrade though. Yeah. And so you figure a few more run or a few more runs of support,

but he's always been a kind of high-ish ERA guy. You know, 358 in 2023, 33, 332 and 2022. That's very good. But yeah, it's, there's a lot of ways this can go wrong for the Phillies and for fantasy. But there's no downside. Honestly, in either avenue, right? Like, Luzardo, his price has just been hilariously, stupidly low in,

fantasy drafts. And in the month of December, his ADP is 453 as the 132nd player off the board behind Matthew Boyd. Right? Like, I'd rather have Hazos Lizardo than Matthew Boyd, even being pretty skeptical of Jesus Lazzardo. I would rather have Hazus Lazzardo than Tobias Myers. So, like, yeah, I have my concerns about Jesus Lazzardo, but he's been one of the most obvious ADP values in early draft so far. And I wrote about this in Friday's newsletter, actually. Do we talk about Lazzardo in? Yep.

Yeah, we do. Okay. That'll go up now. I think he should probably get pushed up closer to like the 300-ish range. And even that, that's a point in the draft where there's just no risk whatsoever. Like if you draft Hazelis Lazzardo with, you know, the 300th pick and he has two bad starts to open the season, guess what? what you do because you're probably going to drop whoever that is anyway.

So I have no problem with Lozardo's value. Chris, would you like to take a stab at Lozardo's ADP last offseason? It was like 85 or something, right? 86.8. And out on Lazardo last year. He was a bust for me. But and then look, that alone,

if a guy is healthy currently and his ADP dropped 300, 70 spots, you should probably just draft that guy. Because that's a guy that we thought was super, super talented a year ago. And I don't think the talent has changed dramatically. Like, I was out on him, but I could see the upside. It's just health. Yeah. Now there's no downside.

Like if he gets hurt or if he's not good, even if it's the 300 pick, even if he goes up 150 spots in ADP, who cares? Just drop him if he's not good. There's zero risk. I think Luzardo should probably be, I don't know, top 250 at least, maybe a little lower because there are a lot of starting pitchers you can make that case for. But I see no reason not to take the chance on him at least. The updated Phillies rotation, you have Zach Wheeler, Christopher Sanchez,

Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Jesus Lazzardo, one name I did not mention, which causes some complications. Andrew Painter, the Phillies. top prospect who we actually recorded a pitching prospect podcast that's going to come out on December 30th so you can hear more about Andrew Painter there. But returning from Tommy John, he looked really good in the Arizona Fall League. This is someone who was pushing to be in the Phillies rotation when he was 19 years old, two years ago. But now it's a little bit more difficult. Injuries happen, Chris. He can certainly get and make starts this season for the Phillies.

but we don't have that clear, okay, there's a rotation spot up for grabs here for Andrew Painter. And there was a quote. I'm trying to find the exact quote. But there was a quote from Dave Dombrowski that pretty explicitly said that Andrew Painter was not going to be part of the opening day rotation. Let me see if I can find it. Okay. This was actually before the Lazzardo trade. They were talking about Taiwan Walker as the number five pitcher.

And they were kind of, they've been looking for a swing man, I think was the thing that he said. Like, I would guess Taiwan Walker is going to be that, right? They'll use him sixth starter. So like, Painter's not even sixth in the hierarchy. He's got to see something go wrong with Taiwan Walker, which very well could. But the quote was, and then all of a sudden, if Painter comes up at some point during the year, you'd also feel comfortable. He's not going to be up on opening day.

And I don't know if that was ever going to be the plan with how they needed to limit his innings. And maybe it's, you know, he pitches out of the bullpen or he gets a delayed start, doesn't really start until like May. And then they work him in as things go wrong because things always go wrong with pitchers. And when you've got a rotation that is relying on Hayes-Lazardo, we saw how things can go wrong for Ranger Choirs in the second half. Tawan Walker has been pretty bad lately. So I think there will be chances for Andrew Painter.

It's just it's going to be late in the season, I think, you know, but probably not, certainly not April, probably not May. And so as far as drafting Andrew Painter, I think this probably takes him off the board just because he's not going to be an IL spot. You're going to have to burn that roster spot on him. So I do think that takes Andrew Painter out of the draftable discussion in your redraft drafts, but still an aim to know and still absolutely has sky high upside when and if he gets

the call. So don't forget about Andrew Painter, even if you have to take him off your draft board to open the season. Would you take Lizardo just ahead of Painter in a redraft league? Yeah. Yeah, I think so. What about just stashing prospects early on in the season, pitching prospects? Would you rather stash an Andrew Painter or take a shot on someone like Bubba Chandler from the pirate who, you know, maybe. could have a chance at an opening day job. I think you'd rather draft Chandler than Painter at this point just because, like you said, there doesn't seem to be any path for Andrew Payton.

Look, it's possible he gets to spring training and just so overwhelms everyone that they just can't keep him down. But given the names that they have right now, I do think you probably have to assume Andrew Painter won't be up for a while. So I think it is easy to talk right now about staff. guys who aren't in the majors. It's a lot harder on April 15th when you've had three players go on IL already. You know, like that's something we go, we talk about every year.

Every year is, oh, there's so many injuries in April. That's just what happens in April. Guys get hurt at the beginning of the year. And so I'll pretty much go with any pitcher who has a chance at an opening day roster spot ahead of Andrew Panard. just because it's really hard to stash a guy who's not pitching in the majors. The updated Marlins rotation after trading Lazardo,

Sandy Alcansara, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett, and I think Max Meyer, maybe Adam Major gets a chance at that fifth starter job. Chris, any, I mean, Deep League, maybe NL only,

Max Meyer, Adam Major for the Marlins? Um, I don't really have any amount of hope for Adam Major. I think the stuff is pretty iffy. I don't really understand why he was getting the relative hype he did last season. I know the minor league numbers were decent in terms of run prevention, but the stuff just isn't there. He's got really good control, but I don't see much upside there.

So I think Max Meyer at least theoretically has a path to some strike outside, but it's going to depend on probably getting another tick of velocity back. You know, his stuff looked pretty bad itself last year. He basically looks like a one-pitch pitcher right now. I think in the long run, Max Meyer probably just ends up in the bullpen, but they're going to give him a chance this year. The thing is, though, you've got those five, and honestly, Sandy's probably the only safe one, because then, you know, Yuri Perez should be mid-season.

ready from Tommy John's surgery. I would guess we see him around July. And then in AAA, you've probably got Adam Major and Robbie Snelling, who I like more than Adam Major, but has less experience at AAA. And then you've got like Dex Fulton coming back from Tommy John surgery. Maybe he factors in if he gets off to a good start.

You've got Thomas White, who is, you know, I think one of the top pitching prospects in baseball right now. So this is a, this is going to be a very different rotation. come mid-season than it is on opening day. And hopefully it's a better one. Because I do think there is some upside there.

But yeah, I don't even think Max Meyer in like a 15-team league is anything more than a bench flyer. Again, that's Jesus Lazzardo, who was traded over to the Phillies. That pretty much wraps everything up in terms of transactions, Chris. Before we actually close things out, I would be remiss not to mention the passing of one of baseball's very best players. Hall of Famer, 10-time All-Star, MVP, two-time World Series champ, the player who holds the all-time record for run-scored and stolen bases, rest in peace, too. The Man of Steel, Ricky Henderson.

Any words, thoughts before we wrap up here? A once-in-a-lifetime baseball player and a once-in-a-lifetime character, one of the all-time grades, I think even with, like, everybody knowing how good Ricky Henderson is, I still feel like he might be underappreciated. as a player, like, the greatest base stealer of all time. There's no question about it. The greatest lead off hitter of all time.

MLB record for lead off home runs, I think, with 81. I saw some stat he had, like, more walks leading off a game than, like, 40 different Hall of Famers had in their entire career or something. Like, he just, like, it's crazy. Only, I think it's Pete Rose, Babe Ruth, and Barry Bonds are the only players who reached base more in their careers

than Ricky Henderson. like it's it's I think he's a top 10 player of all time and what a loss for for baseball and obviously you know we lost Willie Mays earlier this year it's it's been a a tough year for for the sport of baseball so that's that's a bummer you know yeah yeah you look you can't tell the story of baseball obviously without Ricky Henderson one of the most electric players of all time you know he's one of the guys where I'm growing up my dad's telling me me stories about, you know, watching Ricky Henderson and the type of player he really was. Some of my favorite stuff is like, if you go on his baseball reference page, you'll see,

like, he was playing as like a 48-year-old for like the Newark Bears in like, in the independent league and stole 37 bases as a 45-year-old in 91 games. He was just like out there playing independent league ball just for the fun of it. So yeah, he was, he was, he was a lot. Awesome. Yeah. Once again, rest and peace to the great Ricky Henderson. We're going to wrap there for Chris.

I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again on Tuesday. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.