Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Cody Bellinger Re-Signs with the Chicago Cubs! - Emergency Podcast (2/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:03 Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Cubs fans, rejoice. Cody Bellinger is headed back to the Windy City. Welcome into an emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today. Frank Stamphill joined by Chris Howers on Sunday, February 25th. And Cody Bellinger has re-signed with the Chicago Cubs on a three-year $80 million contract, which includes opt-outs after both 2024 and 2025. We'll get to the contract in just a little bit because it is interesting.

Starting point is 00:00:31 Let's start with your immediate reaction on Belmonton. Chris, back to the Cubs. Because outside of maybe joining the Yankees this offseason with that short porch in right field, going back to Chicago kind of feels like the best fit. Yeah, I think the biggest thing is, look, there's a lot of uncertainty about whether Cody Bellinger can repeat what he did last season. And it might be even more fair to say there's a lot of skepticism, certainly from me on whether he can repeat that.

Starting point is 00:00:58 But one thing we can say is it worked in Chicago. And so whether he can do it again is obviously a bigger question. But the fact that he's returning to the place where it already worked and, you know, the place where, you know, he kind of turned his career back around, I think it should make you a little more optimistic about his chances because, you know, it's a good home park. You know, the, the wind flying out, you know, certainly seemed to help him maximize the power he has. So from that perspective, you know, it's a pretty good lineup. But I think all else being equal, this was pretty close to the ideal scenario for Cody Belanger for fantasy. For Cody Belanger in real life, probably not what he was looking for. And I think that reflects the amount of skepticism that there is around Cody Ballinger.

Starting point is 00:01:51 Look, what Cody Belanger was looking for this offseason, I'm sure this was not it. But going back to the place where he did turn his career around, I think that says something. I do think this is a great move for the Cubs too. I mean, for a team that brought in Craig Counsel to be their manager this offseason, they really haven't done much. So I think getting Cody Bellinger back on this team to help with that lineup is a huge deal for these Chicago Cubs. Let's talk about this contract, Chris, because like you said, it kind of confirms the skepticism that we have had about Bellinger all offseason, right? I mean, he's coming off a huge year where he hit 297, 26 homers, 20 steals, I believe one of 19 players to go 2020 last year.

Starting point is 00:02:29 881 OPS. He did all of that in just 130 games. It could turn into a three-year deal. It's essentially three one-year deals where if he comes anywhere close to duplicating what he did last year, then he will hit the market again next off-season. But for people wondering why the skepticism,

Starting point is 00:02:48 we've talked about a lot. I mean, it's the quality of contact. He lowered the strikeout rate tremendously. Is that something that can carry over again this year? He was great against lefties all of a sudden, which we really haven't seen throughout his career. There is a chance that he just completely changed his approach, much better with two strikes, and it's something that can't be measured in the numbers.

Starting point is 00:03:08 But I think that there's reason for skepticism, and we see that in the contract as well. Yeah, I mean, it's basically the same thing that Carlos Correa did when he left Houston and signed with the twins in 2022, except that was three years, $105 million with an opt-out after each year. This is three years, 80 million with an opt-out after each year. So I think that that tells you the gap in terms of how those players are viewed as where Carlos Correa was was viewed as, you know, you might be surprised, but he was viewed as like a franchise player at that point. I don't think the same thing can be said of Cody Bellinger coming off of that year. And the other thing that I've said a few times during these discussions in the off season is like Cody Bellinger's real life value.

Starting point is 00:03:54 He adds a lot of value with his base running. and he adds a lot of value with his defense. He's a really, really good defensive center fielder, really, really good defensive first baseman for whatever that's worth. He has that flexibility. He can move him around to really four different spots. And he still had trouble getting the contract he was looking for and still had trouble getting paid like a legitimate difference maker.

Starting point is 00:04:17 And so for fantasy, we don't get the benefit of that great defense. And we only get the benefit of the base running when he steals bases, which is part of his profile, and you can project up to 25 stolen bases for him. But it's just to say that if major league teams were this skeptical about Cody Bellinger, when he, even if the bat regresses, is still a viable starting player, I think that tells us a lot about how skeptical we should be when we don't get the benefit of his defense.

Starting point is 00:04:48 Let's talk about the price tag, Chris. The fantasy pros ADP for Cody Bellinger is 55.8, the NFBC ADP over the past. two weeks, 58.4. So even though this was dragging out, we really weren't seeing a dip in the value, in the cost for Cody Bellinger in drafts. How far, because it sounds like

Starting point is 00:05:07 he needs to fall past ADP for you to draft him, how far does he have to fall for you to actually consider drafting Cody Bellinger? I would say probably at least another round, probably more like two. I'd want to draft him around 80th overall if I could.

Starting point is 00:05:23 you know, it's so hard because like you said, there was the change in approach, a more contacted oriented approach, you know, shortening up with two swings, all of those things maybe led to the quality of contact being lessened, but maybe the overall approach worked a little more, a little better.

Starting point is 00:05:42 The problem there is like Cody Belanger's always been a fly ball hitter who hits the ball to the pull side, like his contact profile in terms of the direct. erection and whether he hit it on the ground. Like that didn't change much from 2022 to 2023. He did cut his strikeout rate a lot, but, you know, we saw in 2020, his strikeout rate was pretty much identical and he was pretty bad that year. It was a small sample size.

Starting point is 00:06:10 Quality of contact was still good. But I say all that just to say that the reasons you might think Cody Bellinger could overperform his expected stats in a way that's sustainable, you know, like we talk about DiSoc Paredes and guys like that, that's always been there for Cody Bellinger. Like, he's always been athletic. He's always hit the ball in the air to the pull side, all of those things. And he's never really been a guy who outperforms his expected numbers. Last year, he did by a huge margin, 370 Woba, 327 expected Woba.

Starting point is 00:06:44 His career, 346 Woba, 342 expected Woba. So that's why I'm really skeptical that the changes that he made last, season were real and representative of his skill set. I think it's probably more like a 15 homer skill set. I think he's probably not going to hit what was 280. Yeah, three was it? Yeah, 307 last year. Yeah. That's where like I look at it and like I think it's probably more of like a 270ish batting average, maybe 275 as the true talent level baseline. And obviously there's room for a margin for error in either direction there. So I think he'll be a decent batting average source. I think he'll be a decent power speed threat, but like I'm pretty down on Lane Thomas and I'm not sure there's a big

Starting point is 00:07:33 difference between the two of them, you know? The batting average. If you think the true talent level for Bellinger is 270, 27, 275, I know Lane Thomas hit, you know, fine last year, but you're probably expecting more like a 240-ish batting average from Lane Thomas. So, you know, 30 points of batting average, is that worth their difference in ADP, like 60, 70 spots? I don't know. I'll leave that up to you. The listener, I'll say this, Chris, last year, Bellinger finishes a top 20 player. Even with all this skepticism, if he comes anywhere close to repeating, he is going to provide excess value at this draft cost. So for those that are in on Bellinger, if you trust it, or if you're just a Cubs fan and you want to take a shot on Bellinger, it could work out. But I'm more in

Starting point is 00:08:15 the camp with you. I need him to fall probably outside the top 70. So, you know, the 6-7 turn at a 12 team league. Maybe that's where I would start looking at Bellinger if he actually lasts that long in a draft. Let's take a quick break when we return. We'll talk about the rest of the Cubs lineup. How does this affect everybody else involved? We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in talking about Cody Bellinger, resigning with the Chicago Cubs. How does

Starting point is 00:08:36 this affect the rest of the Cubs lineup? So, roster resource put Bellinger back in center field for now. We know they went out and traded for Michael Bush this offseason with the Dodgers and he's currently penciled in at first base for the team. They also have Mike Talkman on the bench, who they did like last year. He gets on base, plays decent defense.

Starting point is 00:08:53 And they have another top prospect in Pete Kro Armstrong, who is a phenomenal defender. There are questions about how much the bat is going to play in the bigs. I think what this does, Chris, is it puts more pressure on Michael Bush because while we're excited about him, has Prospect Pettigree put up big numbers, if he does not perform early in the season,

Starting point is 00:09:12 they have options. They can move Bellinger to first. They can put Pete Kroa Armstrong in center field. They can go in different directions. I like Michael Bush, but I think this creates a little bit more pressure. Yeah, I think that's definitely the case. It puts an onus on him to hit right away

Starting point is 00:09:28 because if he doesn't, then they have options. They have a little more flexibility in it. The one thing I'll say is like, Michael Bush is not someone that you should be moving down your draft board because of this because I think the most likely outcome was always Cody Bellinger returns to the Cups. That was the one that made the most sense,

Starting point is 00:09:48 given how little the Cubs did. Otherwise, this offseason, I think it would have been viewed as a pretty big disaster. If they didn't bring him back, you know, obviously they signed Imanaga, but other than that, it's been a pretty quiet offseason

Starting point is 00:10:02 with probably Michael Bush being their biggest move otherwise. So I don't, I'm not like, Michael Bush should still be on your late round radar. It just, yeah, he has to probably hit the ground running to really be a full-time player. If he can do that, I think there's a lot of upside, but it's just, it decreases the margin for error for him. Did you have any interest in Pete Crow Armstrong, Chris?

Starting point is 00:10:25 Because he has speed and obviously tons of prospect pedigree. I think known more for the glove, but I think this kind of puts a little bit of a damper on Crow Armstrong's outlook, at least in 2024. Yeah, I mean, his minor league numbers are decent. He had 20 homers and 37 stolen bases between AA and AAA only, I think, 107 games. So there you can you can see a path there. And like, I don't know, the guys with big prospect pedigree who have some questions about their bat but are really good defenders. It's a profile that I think it does make some sense to bet on because there's clearly a high baseline skill level there. You know, I think about someone like Cabrion Hayes who we finally think is going to break out this season.

Starting point is 00:11:09 And that's kind of been my case for him over the years is like, this guy's clearly good at baseball. He's just got to figure out the right approach. And that might be the case for P. Khr Armstrong, who was pretty good in the higher levels. Like, he was a 136 way to run, right of runs created plus in AA as a 21 year old, 106 at AAA, so still above average, despite the jumping competition.

Starting point is 00:11:38 So yeah, I think Pekar Armstrong's an interesting late round flyer, but, you know, we'll need to see if he breaks camp. before he's really worth drafting. Who would you rather take a late round flyer on? Michael Bush or Crow Armstrong? Bush. You know, his production level in the high miners has been much more impressive.

Starting point is 00:11:57 150 weighted runs Creative Plus in 2023. Granted, four years older than Pete Carr Armstrong, but also just as things stand in mid-February, late February, just seems like a much clearer path to playing time also. Again, Cody Bellinger headed back to the Chicago Cubs on a three-year $80 million contract, which includes opt-outs after both 2024 and 2025.

Starting point is 00:12:21 Great news for those who play in NL-only leagues. I know you have an NL-only draft coming up this week, Chris. Next weekend we'll be out in Florida. I'm doing NL-only labor. So this is good. It adds to the player pool, obviously. And it's just good to have some conclusion, at least on Bellinger.

Starting point is 00:12:35 Where we're headed next is, all right, well, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, J.D. Martinez. These guys remained unsigned. And, you know, Scott has talked about this, especially with those pitchers, the further we go into camp and they don't get on, they don't get signed, I think we have to start to legitimately lower them down draft boards because they're just falling behind, right?

Starting point is 00:12:54 Yeah, I think that's much more of a concern for Snell and Montgomery than certainly like J.D. Martinez is what a 10 year veteran, 12 year veteran. I don't think missing a week of minorly of spring training games is really going to change his ability to get ready for the season. So I'm not too concerned about the hitters. But yeah, Snell and Montgomery, like, they're probably throwing on the side and, you know, keeping up. But they're not getting in games. And you can't replicate that on the side.

Starting point is 00:13:24 So right now, I don't think you move them down. But if we get to, you know, next week and we're a full week for two turns through the spring rotation and they haven't signed, like, yeah, I think it just impacts their ability to be prepared for the start of the season. We're going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again later tonight. We're doing U-Til-only players and our position previews recap.

Starting point is 00:13:54 And we will see you next. Bye-bye.

Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Cody Bellinger Re-Signs with the Chicago Cubs! - Emergency Podcast (2/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

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