Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Corbin Burnes Traded to the Orioles! Prospect Spotlight & Mailbag Questions (2/2 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 2, 2024

Out of nowhere! Corbin Burnes was traded to the Baltimore Orioles for Joey Ortiz, DL Hall and the 34th overall pick (2:53)! ... Will Joey Ortiz and/or DL Hall have value this season (10:52)? ... Let's highlight a top prospect, this week Tyler Black (18:54). ... We've got mailbag questions and first up, how to manage your in-season roster (27:15)? ... Michael Harris or Tarik Skubal (33:40)? ... Is Kenta Maeda a late-round sleeper (41:06)? ... What does the aging curve look like in baseball (44:01)? ... How should you construct your pitching staff in Fantasy (50:48)? ... Batting average or OBP in a categories league (57:30)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Fentasy Baseball today on February 2nd. I am Frank Stample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, it's our first mailbag of the offseason. Plus, we have a new segment, Prospect Spotlight. But holy crap, the Orioles just traded for Corbyn Burns. We're sitting there mock drafting, having a grand old time, and boom, we get hit with a Ken Rosenbaum. The Orioles acquired 2021 Cy Young winner, Corbyn Burns,

in exchange for two prospects infielder Joey Ortiz and pitcher D.L. Hall, plus the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft. That new ownership group in Baltimore didn't waste any time. Let's talk about Corbyn's. He is entering a contract year and will do it in the pitcher-friendly confides of Camden Yards, which kind of sounds weird to say. But it is true. They were 22nd in home run park factors last year compared to American Family Feast.

out in Milwaukee, which had the ninth highest home run park factor. So it's a great park switch here for Corbyn Burns. He is, however, moving from the National League Central to the much tougher American League East. Scott, let's start with you. Your immediate reaction, Corbyn Burns, to the Baltimore Orioles. My immediate reaction was, what the crap, because I thought we had kind of abandoned hope for Corbyn Burns trade happening.

and the Brewers had just added Reese Hoskins and it looked like they were going for it again in the NL Central and based on the return they got for Corbyn-Burns, maybe they should have just tried to go forward in NL. Central, but we'll get to that. For Burns, I think this is only good news. Yes, it's true.

He goes to a tougher division. It's a balanced schedule now. Yeah, he only started 10 games against the NL Central last year. Yeah, and I just think that's not as a much, important is some other factors in play here. One of them being, he goes from a fringe contender to what, in my mind, is now the AL favorites. The Orioles are loaded for bear. They won 101 games last year without Burns, without Jackson Holiday. And now both are going to be in the mix, obviously. They have more hitters than they know what to do with. They're going to score a ton of runs.

Burns is going to benefit from all of that. It wasn't in a bad situation with the Brewers, but he couldn't ask for a much better situation than what he gets in Baltimore now. Plus, he goes from one of the most hitter-friendly parks to one of the most pitcher-friendly parks. And at first, I wasn't making much of that because, okay, historically, Burns has been a big bat-missor and he's not vulnerable to fly balls.

And so for that profile, how much of a difference would it actually make? But I will point out that at home last year, Burns had a 428 ERA. For his career, his ERA at home is 75 points, about 75 points higher at home than on the road. So, you know, pitching American Family Field hasn't been great for him historically.

Also, stat cast estimates that if he had pitched every game at Camden Yards last year, he would have allowed seven fewer home runs, which is significant. So I think there's tangible value just in the park shift for Burns. too. So I think it's enough. I had him fifth in my starting pitcher rankings. You know, we've talked before about how there isn't a clear number three this year behind Spencer

Strider and Garrett Cole. I'm not saying Burns needs to be drafted alongside Spencer Strider and Garrett Cole, but I do think he's probably the clear number three now with this move. Chris, I've brought some of my concerns up on recent podcasts regarding Corbyn Burns. just things that I've noticed the past couple of years, things that are trending in the wrong direction, strikeouts and walks, obviously, a 12.2% swinging strike rate last year for Corbyn Burnes. Still very good by, you know,

pitcher standards, but it was a career low for Corbyn Burns. So talk to me about what you think has been happening with Corbyn Burns. Are you worried about it at all? And this move over to the Baltimoreals. Yeah, I mean, he lost, what, about a mile per hour on his fastball last season. So if you're looking for an expletable, as to why he might have been getting fewer strikeouts.

About half. It started out as one in April, but then he picked up half a mile the rest of the season. And so, you know, that's probably if you're looking for why he was a slightly less dominant strikeout pitcher last season. Maybe that's the explanation.

But I don't know how much I care about that. Just because, and I said this with Garrett Cole the other day where like, we are talking about a, yes, there is a threat. Right, he's gone from 35.6% strikeout rate in 2021 to 30.5% in 2022 to 25.5. I guess that's a trend.

2023 is the only one that's alarming. And even that feels like the wrong word because a 26% strikeout rate is still very good. A 31% strike out rate like he had in 2022 is tremendous. So like I tend to think it's more of a one year thing. And he offset that with improvements in terms. of the quality of contact that he allowed last year in a way that makes me think that it's not really a concern. I think the park shift, like we've said, is incredibly strong. You look at the results for Baltimore's pitchers since the start of 2022, when they moved their fences back. Generally speaking,

we want three years at least for park factors to feel confident in them because they're fairly noisy stats. We only have two here. So I think I don't want. to overreact too much. But over the past two seasons, Orioles pitchers collectively have a 411 ERA on the road, 377 at home. That's not an insignificant gap. So, yeah, I think that Corbyn's absolutely the number three starting pitcher right now. I had him number three in points. I think he was number five in Roto. Even in just looking at it, I just kind of realized I probably should have had him number three to begin with. But now I think he's, like Scott said, a clear number three.

I think he's not in the strider, Garrett Cole range. I think he's at the top of the next tier and potentially in a half tier of his own. And I should mention, because forgive me if you did mention it, the second half stats for Burns. Yes. Even though the, you did mention it or no? No, I did. Okay. Yeah, even though, so even though the overall numbers were down much better in the second

half as he regained some of the velocity on that cutter. He had a 271 ERA, 0.99 whip, and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. So that felt a lot more like Corbyn Burns. Yeah, 28.6% strikeout rate, not quite 22 levels, but close enough that if he had struck out 29% of batters last season, nobody would have blinked. According to Fantasy Pro's ADP, which takes the average. draft position from five different websites so far. Burns is going as the 20th player off the board,

the SP3 behind only Spencer Shreder and Garrick Cole. You guys agree that Burns should be the SP3. I put out a poll on Twitter asking that exact question between Zach Wheeler, Gosman, Corbyn, Bernds, Castillo, who should go first of that group? And Corbyn Burns is running away with it, 51% of the vote. I think there's probably some, you know,

excitement about the trade and, you know, Maybe people are clicking on Burns, but it feels like that it's probably going to wind up being the case. That Burns will wind up being the SP3 in most drafts this upcoming season. Before we move over to the Brewers, just an update on the Orioles projected rotation. Corbyn Burns up at the top, Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Braddish, John Means, and then one of Dean Kramer or Tyler Wells as their SP5. They also have pitching depth in the minors, some prospects, Chase McDermit and Kipovich too. so, man, the Orioles are set up real well right now.

Scott, you mentioned you think they should be the favorite to win the American League at this point. I did look up some betting odds, and they are tied for the third best odds to win the American League behind the Astros. The Yankees probably shouldn't be ahead of them, but that's just the betting market. They always prop up the Yankees because people bet on the Yankees anyway, even though they shouldn't. Let's talk about the return in this trade, the prospect package. seemed a little light to me. I mean, the Brewers also got the 34th pick. And it is only one year of Corbyn Burns.

He's entering a contract year. So I get that, but still seems a little bit light. Let's talk about it. Joey Ortiz, a 25-year-old infielder who's played all over the diamond and is regarded as a great defender. Seems like he has a solid bat last year in 88 games at AAA. He hit 321 with nine homers, 30 doubles, 11 steals, and an 885 OPS. D.L. Hall was the other piece.

A 25-year-old pitcher, former top pitching prospect, has struggled mightily with control and injuries, but there is an opportunity here in the Brewer's rotation. Scott talked to me about the return. Again, it felt a little bit light to me. And if you think any of these guys could have value with the brewers, Joey Ortiz and Dio Hall. I think they could.

I do think it was an overwhelming return, considering the brewers were giving up one of the few surefire aces in the game today. or T's and Hall. Hall technically doesn't qualify as a prospect anymore, but if he did, they would both be like fringe top 100 guys. And they've lost some of their luster since they've appeared in the majors

and for the most part hasn't gone well. That tends to cost prospects some value. But I do think there's upside here for both. And I do think the brewers present a great opportunity for both that they were never going to get with the Orioles. I think part of what's held back D.L. Hall's development is that the Orioles, he's more of a project than a team in the Orioles position could take on. He has an incredible fastball, but the control issues you mentioned,

the health issues further stunting his development. He did kind of get in a groove last year. They brought him up to use him out of the bullpen in 18 appearances, a 326 ERA, a 119. whip 10.7K per 9. So you see the potential right there. What was most notable, I think, though, about that 18 appearance stint,

65% of his pitches for strikes, which is certainly good enough. You have stuff as good as Hall as you throw 65% of your pitches for strikes. That'll play. If it wasn't just a small sample fluke, it was a sign of Hall turning the corner. The Brewers have a great track record

developing pitchers like this. So I don't know that he'll be durable enough to hold up as a starter. I don't even really know what the Brewers' plans are for him really, but I think spring training will tell us a lot

about DL Hall's immediate fantasy potential. And then as far as Joey Ortiz goes, and I'll note, he's Joseph, Joseph Ortiz in our player database. I was wondering why it didn't make the hyperlink when I was writing about him earlier.

Right. It sounds like you're angry when you talk about it, right? Joseph Ortiz. Joseph. I just wanted to stress it. Joseph. What's the f.

Yeah, about him. So I did not include him in my top 100 prospects. The minor league numbers, you know, he makes good contact, hit for average. The home runs and stolen base is underwhelming. I took a look, though, at his, some of the underlying data, the exit velocity readings and such from his time at AAA. and at AAA this year, Joey Ortiz had an average exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, a max exit velocity of almost 115 miles per hour. That'll play.

And a zone contact rate of almost 90%. Like those last two numbers in particular are elite. He needs to hit more fly balls, but like that's more potential, offensive potential than Ortiz's 5' 5 foot 9 frame would suggest. and you look at the brewer's infield, it's pretty wide open too. We like Tyler Black. We'll get to him a little later.

We like Tyler Black, hopefully, to enter into the picture at third base. But Ortiz could play anywhere on the infield. And second base, Bryce Tarang there, you know, that didn't go so well last year. And I think Ortiz would represent an upgrade. So I think Ortiz becomes a, in deeper rotissory leagues,

a potential eight-round target now. want to mention also. I moved on from the pitching, but Brewer's pitching is, they got nothing beyond Freddie Peralta. Freddie Peralta, Wade Miley, and then nothing. That's part of the reason why I like D.L. Hall's opportunity, as well as Aaron Ashby coming back from surgery, remember him. Yep. Robert Gasser, a pretty interesting prospect could factor. Spring, for the pitching options there, spring training is going to tell us a lot. I mean, I think more immediately, Joey Ortiz is somebody to note.

Joe Ross is currently slated in as their number four starter, according to roster resource. That Joe Ross, yeah. The one who was like kind of interesting seven years ago, eight years ago. So, yeah, things are pretty grim in the rotation for them. I think both Hall and Ortiz, if you wanted to throw a late round dart at either of them, I think it's perfectly reasonable. I can't say they're going to be my favorite sleepers among either the Enfield or the starting pitcher cohort, but

Hall should be, he's a, he's a spark on CBS, right? He only appeared in release last. Yeah, he's all over LP eligible. So, yeah, that helps in a point league, although points is a shallower format. You only draft, what, 250-something player, so it's. You generally go

deeper into the pitching pool, though. Yeah, so it's, if he wasn't a spark, I'm not sure he'd get drafted, but I think it's worth the flyer on either of them. I think Ortiz is probably the higher likelihood to make an impact because Hall's walk rates throughout the miners were pretty consistently in the five range per nine, which is just, that's untenable as a starter.

Yeah. But I hope either of them figures it out. It's a, it's a cheap investment in either way. Yeah, I think there are more ripple effects too. I mean, is this a sign that the brewers are going to start to kind of tear things down? It's kind of weird because like you said, Scott, they brought in Reese Hoskins. They still have Yelich. So they have some veterans.

Not sure they completely tear it down, but if they go in that direction, Devin Williams, that's a name to watch. I think Willie Adomis entering a contract year, also another name to watch, two names that maybe could be on the move here for the Milwaukee Brewers as well. I also think everybody whose team is in contention,

because Burns is an impending free agent, I get that. But every fan out there whose team is in contention, though, should be mad that their team, wasn't able to beat this offer because it was, you know, like you said, we were mock drafting when it happened and we were all speculating what the return was and people were like, Heston Kyrstad, Coltowser. Give yourself a pat on the back, Scotty. I said what?

Yeah. True. I said, watch it be somebody dumb like Joey Ortiz, like Joey Ortiz and a reliever. Exactly right. That's basically what it was. Yeah. That's exactly what it was. I will say for D.L. Hall, from a dynasty perspective, I play, I only have one Dynasty League, playing in Scott White Dynasty League. I have D.O. Hall. While it's a bad park shift, he now has the opportunity to start. So I think long term, this could turn out to be a good thing for D.L. Hall in a dynasty league, finally getting that opportunity. So I'm pretty excited for him in that format as well. Again, the big news here, massive news. Corbyn Burns traded to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Joey Ortiz, D.L. Hall, plus the 34th overall pick in.

this year's MLB draft. As I've been teasing recently, we'll highlight one top prospect per week right here on the mailbag. Thanks to our new sponsor. Let's stick with the Brewers. As today we're focusing on third base prospect, Tyler Black. He was sent in from one of our listeners, Chris Bosworth, and we do appreciate it.

Tyler Black, the 33rd overall pick in the 2021 draft, a little bit older at 23 years old. He had a huge breakout season last year. 284 batting average, homers, 55 steals with a 930 OPS in 123 games, 39 of those coming at AAA. He walks a ton, actually had more walks than strikeouts at AAA, a 428 on base percentage. Chris, this seems like a skill set that should translate very favorable to fantasy, Tyler Black of the Brewers. Yeah, I struggle because he did 18 home runs last season.

when you look into the quality of contact metrics, it's pretty bad, 109 mile per hour, max EV, that's not horrible, but it's not very good, 86 mile per hour average exit velocity, and that's in AAA against AAA pitching.

So, you know, when you think about like, like it feels a little, I don't know, like Zach Gelloff E in that, like it's maybe fringe power, more speed here,

great on base skills. It's, it kind of, I don't know. He's a weird prospect. I feel like when you look at like the combination of skills, because he's a corner infielder who stole 55 bases last season, walks a ton, hit for power for the first time since college last year. I think the power is probably a little bit of a fake out.

But if he can keep the rest of those skills, you know, if he can be a 35 stolen base guy who gets on base a ton, that's still really interesting. The problem is you can. come to the plate with 86 mile per hour average exit velocity, pitchers are going to challenge you. And can he keep that walk rate? That's always one thing I worry about when you're talking about guys with really good plate

discipline who don't hit for a lot of power in the miners is, well, you can get away with that when guys don't know where their pitchers are going. What happens against major league pitching? I would be curious to see what the exit velocity readings were at double A, which is where Black spent most of last season. He got 39 games of AAA, 84 at AA. We only have the exit velocity data for AAA. So that's unfortunate.

You know, the scouting report's basically to say the same thing. Not sure if that 18 homer total from Black is something he can sustain. He did have a very high fly ball rated AA, and he is going to play in a park that amplifies power. So hopefully those working together can make Black, Tyler Black, enough of a, you know, a 15 to 20. homie homeer guy. I think that's within the realm of possibility. And if he's doing that kind of damage on contact, then it'll get a chance for his louder skills to play up, to make some noise. He's among the best walkers of any minor leaguer 88 times last year. He's among the best base dealers of any minor league or 55 times last year. I do wonder if this acquisition of Joey Ortiz

prevents Black from making the opening day roster. Maybe the Brewers do want to give Bryce Terang more time and Ortiz fits more in at third base. But if they wanted to get both Black and Ortiz in the lineup, there is a possibility for that. And I like Black as sort of a late round flyer in Rotel leagues especially because of that steals potential.

And obviously, as things play out this spring, that'll help bring his exact. value into focus. I think spring training is going to matter a lot for these guys, just in determining which prospects make the opening day roster, which ones don't. I just want to quickly mention, Tyler Black, again, has played all over the diamond.

First base, second base, third base, and center field. He already has been invited to Brewer's spring training. So he's going to be out there. He's going to be playing. Chris, you could touch on it as well. I was going to ask a similar question, you know, between Joey Ortiz and Andrew Monasterio, currently penciled in there at third base.

the team does still have Willie Adamas. If they don't trade Adomis before opening day, I could see it maybe being a little bit tough for Tyler Black to be on that roster. Yeah, I think the center field experience that he got last year is pretty interesting, although obviously we're assuming Jackson Turyo is going to be playing center for the Brewers on opening day. But, you know, maybe there's room in right field. I don't know, because Sal Freelix there, it's kind of, you know, I was going to say when Joey Ortiz, when we were talking about him,

him like he got traded from an orio's team where he's like so blocked that there was no path to a brewer's team where he's not blocked but he's just kind of surrounded by a lot of samey like fringe-ish prospects i think tyler black is also in that discussion i would think that there's a lot of disagreement among scouting types about tyler black and it might depend on what day you see him And if you saw them at AAA versus AA because I think the, the power is going to be a real determining factor here. And it might end up being a kind of super utility profile. But Edward Julian with some speed also isn't a bad thing either, you know.

All right. You're underselling Julian there. Sure, sure. But like, you know, in terms of the very OBP heavy approach, maybe less power, but more speed. Okay. And remember, if you want to hear about a specific top prospect on a future mailbag, leave us a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts.

Drop the prospect's name in the review. And again, we will get to it. We've got one mailbag coming out every week until the season starts. Let's take our first break when we return. On to the Mailbag right after this. Welcome back in. On to the Mailbag. We go and we'll start with our Apple Podcast review questions.

This one is from Body Bag 6. Remember, this is a family show. Hi there, Stump, Buck, and Joe. Are these Yankees managers? That's the only thing that's coming up. Buck's Joe Walter. Buck's Show Walter Stump Merrill. That was, he managed the Yankees for 275 incredibly memorable games

between the 1990 and 1991 seasons. Yeah, that's the only thing that came up when I, uh, that sounds right. Yeah, that's, that's the only thing I could think of. Any general advice for in-season management of your roster? I feel like I never know when to bench or cut a struggling player who was supposed to be a major contributor or when to pick up slash start a guy who is hot, but was not higher regarded, highly regarded, entering, coming into the season. Do you guys have any guidelines or rules you follow when it comes to the, these decisions. Scott, the first thing that came to mind is how every year,

we have to talk so many people off the ledge early on in the season, and we usually wait till Memorial Day, right? That's kind of the time where, all right, big name players, top 50 picks, whatever it might be. Let's give them to Memorial Day. Two months, figure out what's going on with these players, and then we make decisions after that. As for the starter sit stuff, I mean, a lot of it is, you know, matchups, maybe reading Scott's weekly planner or something like that, but those are some things that I thought of. Yeah, to some degree,

and this question is kind of hard to answer because it depends on how deep your league is, what sort of league you're playing in. Obviously, for start, sit, there is a caliber of hitter, or pitcher even, really, that you never sit, regardless of what the matchups are, regardless of how they've been performing recently. It's just never a consider.

because they're liable to go off one week, and that's the week you sat them, and you're kicking yourself for not getting everything that you invested in. So I don't even mess with the upper levels, sort of the upper tiers at each position. And again, what exactly that means when I refer to upper tiers depends on how deep the league is, what kind of alternatives we're talking about on your bench, et cetera. another piece of general advice that applies, I think, early in the season is, okay, so on your roster, you know, you have players you're heavily invested in high-end types, ones that deserve an incredibly long leash. And then you have the caliber of player that isn't that different from what's on the waiver wire, isn't so high-end that if they're struggling, and you drop them,

they would automatically be picked up. And again, I can't say exactly what that caliber of player is for your league in particular. You just kind of have to know by experiencing your league in the past what sort of player I'm talking about.

So I tend to be really aggressive on waivers early in the year when there is some new exciting option emerging, unless it's just like an obvious fluke. I try to make a play for him, and I'm willing to swap out that sort of player I'm talking about who, you know, if they're struggling and they wouldn't automatically be picked up if you drop them because they're just not that caliber of player.

And I think you can kind of observe this phenomenon just by monitoring roster trends in your league, how rostered this player is that you're considering dropping. If it's over 90%, okay, maybe hold on a little longer. if it's under 70%, you're probably fine letting him go. And that way, you give yourself more opportunities at the breakout players

without necessarily losing anything that you'll regret giving up. Because if that player you drop, then heats up, you'll probably still have a chance to act on that. Chris, I do think it's a really tough thing to answer. I think, like Scott said,

it depends on the league size. I think in shallower leagues, maybe you're a little bit more aggressive early on in the season with some of those fringe players on your roster, it gets tougher, the deeper you go, right? If you play in 14 team, 15 team leagues or anything deeper, ALNL only,

you don't want to drop players that have a role on their respective team, even though they might be struggling, because, again, it's just so hard to find guys like that, and eventually they can pick it up. So, man, I think the deeper you go, I think you have to be a little bit more prudent and trying to figure out who you're dropping each week.

It's tough. Yeah, if you'll allow me a little bit of interesting, I would say, we are talking about what I think is probably my biggest weakness as a fantasy player. And conversely, I think is also one of my biggest strengths as a fantasy analyst, which is that I tend to keep a pretty even keel when it comes to reacting to small sample sizes. And I think that pays off a lot when we're talking about, you know, the guy who's had a really good three. weeks and we get really excited. I think I tend to do a good job of not getting too high or too low when those things happen. On the other hand, when you are playing fantasy baseball, you can't just roll through the whole

season with the roster that you drafted because you liked those guys. And the sample size is too small to react. You know, you do have to react to what you're seeing. It's like we were talking about thinking yesterday's podcast. it's not a science. There is no one right answer that I can say, everyone drafted after 180 second overall, you can cut after a bad two weeks to start the season.

And everybody before that, you just start like that, that's not how it works. It's, it's, it's, uh, it's an art. Like, it's, there's a feel to it.

And it's really difficult. And it's something I really struggle with as a player. And it's why, frankly, like, I enjoy analyzing fantasy baseball, kind of more than I like playing it because I find the actual like

the roster management of it incredibly difficult exactly for this reason because keeping too even of a keel when you're talking about managing your fab and your waiver wire, you're just going to miss out on those handful of difference makers who come alive on the waiver wire every year. And so it's something that I personally really struggle with every year.

And I don't have a good answer for it. If you've got a good answer, please let me know. Well, we spent about like five, six, seven minutes talking about it. So I hope we gave some good answers in that analysis. Now let's move on to the emails, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. That's the letter I. And again, that's the email address you could send your questions into. Just a heads up for future mailbag podcast.

I'm not going to choose many or really, any keeper questions. I just don't know how helpful they are. I'll still answer your keeper questions. Like on the side, I'll just respond to your email. But if you want your question read on the show, try to think of something specific player analysis wise

or if you got a trade or something like that. Just like not like should I keep this player or this player, but a little high level. Yeah. You know, like, you know, because the amount of people who have to choose between

Michael Harris and Terrick Scouble for $10 each. is, you know, it's a relatively small, but I think it's an interesting discussion. Yes, and that's where our first question will come from. Our first email question from James, wondering what everyone's thoughts are on Michael Harris this year and next. So, 24 and beyond pretty uneven results this past year, and I wonder if he'll ever move into the top of the Braz lineup.

I've currently got him slotted in as my last keeper $10, but could also keep scoble at equivalent cost, already keeping Acuna, Olson, and Harper. So I chose this one because it gives us an opportunity to talk about Michael Harris. And just from a draft perspective, thinking about Harris versus Terrick Scouble, if you do have that decision, Scott, Michael Harris really improved in every way that I wanted to see last year. He lowered the strikeout rate. He lowered the ground ball rate.

He improved against left-handed pitching. He did a lot of really, really good things. He got up to a slow start. There's no doubt. But over the final four months, he was an electric player. The problem, as pointed out in this email, is he bats in the bottom third of the lineup. And I don't know how likely it is that, you know, I think roster resource had his Harris batting sixth.

That's possible. And that would help with the counting stats. But the Braves seem to like him batting ninth too. So I just kind of struggle with where is Harris going to bat? And I think that does change his fantasy value. It does for me. Yeah, I'm not, I'm lower on Harris than the consensus.

And I guess I was last year too. Last year it was more about, I wondered if you could sustain the performance with some of those unappealing underlying numbers, as you point out, the underlying numbers caught up to the overlying numbers, ended up with almost exactly the same slash line as he had as a rookie, in a way that's more believable now. But, yeah, it's a pretty big problem

him being stuck in the lower third of the lineup. And normally I'd say, okay, if the player performs, he'll move up in the lineup. Let's not stress about where he's going to bat on opening day. but I think Harris is a unique exception because Acuna, Albies, Riley, Olson, how much higher can he get than that? You know, those guys are in the top four spots, and they're among the best at their position offensively,

and they're well-proven and they're under-team control for a while. And so how high could Harris reasonably climb? maybe fifth, sixth is a little more plausible. If Ozuna turns back into a pumpkin, which is possible, then yeah, maybe fifth is the highest. But then they're become, because they'd have to kind of rearrange things with Olson because they probably wouldn't want two left-handers in a row, fourth and fifth. So it's messy. And, you know, you brought up the other issue of,

it's nice to have some runners for Acuna when he's hitting all those home runs. it's nice for him to have some guys to bat to drive in. And so I think the Braves actually kind of like Harris batting ninth for that reason. So I think the RBI and run production is going to keep him from being a high-end fantasy option, even though he should be very reliable for batting average and should be deliver quality home run and stolen base totals. when it comes to comparing him to scubel, I think it's pretty close. You already are keeping one outfielder there,

and I think that's the main thing Harris says going for him, is that he's an outfielder who can actually hit, and we feel good about him continuing to hit. I think in most cases I'd lean toward Harris for that reason, as much as I like scuba. But if it's a three outfielder league and you already have one, and you know starting pitching is going to be scarce, I could see going scubel's direction.

I think six times out of 10, though, I'd say Harris there. The one thing I would say is we had pretty similar discussions about Ozzy Albee's spot in the lineup within the last few years. And obviously it's a very different Braves lineup now that it was in 2021 or 2020 when we were having these discussions about Albies where, you know, he was batting fifth or sixth. And it was kind of a drag because each spot in the lineup over the course of the season, is worth about 25 plate appearances. So when you're talking one versus two, it doesn't really matter. Michael Harris averaged fewer than four played appearances per game last season.

It's really hard to get to 600 plate appearances if you're batting, you know, that low in the lineup. The only thing I would say, though, is, and it's worth keeping in mind as we get to spring training and we see, oh,

this team's batting this guy lead off is lineups are transient things, right? They are snapshots in time. And there are two players who, if they suffered an injury, Michael Harris would probably take their spot in the lineup. And that's either Ronald Ocunio or Ozzy Albies, right? If either of those guys got hurt, all of a sudden Michael Harris is hitting at the top of what would be a diminished lineup because they would not have either Ronald or Coonio or Ozzy Albies still arguably a top five lineup in baseball with the guys that the Braves have. So I never want to write off the potential of, or even just the potential of Ozzy Albi struggling. Ronald Cunuchin, is not going to struggle. But maybe Ozzy Albi struggling and Michael Harris is super hot and they swap.

That seems unlikely. But like there are paths. And that's one of the things that I like to keep in mind is how many outs do you have with a player to overcome their limitations or just outperform their draft cost? I think Michael Harris has some. we're very confident that he's a very, very good hitter. I've got him and Terrick Scouble, I think they're separated by five spots in my overall rankings. I do have Harris a little higher.

He's 39th. Terrick Scouble is 44th for me. So like, I think you're getting a dollar extra in value. If you keep Michael Harris over Terrick School, that is not a difference that I have any strong convictions about. So if you want to give. scoble the edge because you're already keeping an outfielder, that's totally fine.

He didn't say the scoring format. I think in points leagues that definitely go scubel. Yeah. Because that's not really Harris's format. That's going to be my next question was, is it as simple as Harris and Roto, Terrick Scuba, and head to head points? These next two questions come from a different James,

and he starts with, hello, Starling, Brandon, and Tyrone. I don't know. That would be the Mets outfield. Stalling Martin, Oh, sure. Taylor. Would like Scott's opinion on Kent and Maeda's draft value

given his thoughts on starting pitching strategy this upcoming season. Also, how concerned are you with his injury from last year? Well, I think whenever we're talking about Maeda, Scott, we're concerned about injury. But signed with the Tigers this off season does help mitigate some of those home run concerns. And I know yesterday we did the, if you take away Mitch Keller's worst starts,

here are his numbers. Maeda had a 10 earned run start last year and finished with a 423 ERA. If you take that start away, things look a lot better. And in fact, it's 20% of his earned runs came in that one start. Kenza's XERA was 377. His Sierra was 376. He's currently going outside the top 250 picks and ADP. I'm kind of interested.

How about you? Well, my article that came out earlier this week, 56 revealing stats. one of them had to do with Kintamaiata, so I'll just read it to you. I didn't even mention that turner and run once. That would have been a good one. What I had for Kintamaiata was there may be upside to be found in Kintamaiata still, particularly as he heads off to a pitchers park in Detroit. His 10.9K per 9 last year ranked 12th among pitchers with at least 100 innings,

and his 12.8% swinging strike rate ranked 23rd in 17 appearances after returning from a triceps injury last June. He put together a 336 ERA and 109 whip. I mentioned that him going to Detroit, that the hardest place to hit home runs, that was kind of his biggest problem was surrendering home runs. So if he still has that swing and miss ability,

yeah, there's the potential Kintamaiata could be more useful than his draft status would suggest. He might only give you 12 starts. So I don't think I can move him up that high in my rankings or count on him that heavily as a late round pick. But there are circumstances where I draft him, sure. If you take out that 10-earned-run start,

his ERA for the season drops to 3-4-6. Wow. That's, look, I don't love the whole cherry-picking. I take the start out. But I think for this first- Well, yeah, I mean, look, if you want to take out his best start and his worst start, the worst start's still going to have a lot more impact on that in this instance.

So I mentioned my AIDA's ADP is 272. He's the 373, excuse me, starting pitcher off the board. I haven't met SP 63. So I'm ahead of ADP. And yeah, I think he's a perfectly fine late round starting pitcher to target. This next question, I'm going to throw it your way, Chris. Interested if you guys had any update or could give a refresher on when a player is in their, quote, prime and when they're at a risk to fall off? Sure.

So one thing is just it's different for every play. And so many, many fantasy players have made the mistake of writing off Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz to name two for a decade because they were over 30 and that the end was coming soon. That being said, I think generally speaking, if you look at aging curves, there's been a lot of research about this. I pulled up a couple fan graphs articles. the most recent one that I saw was heading into the 2021 season. Players tend to peak around 22, 23, and then hold that peak until about 25, 26, 27. And then there's a gradual decline.

And you start to see a real drop off once they hit 30. Obviously, that's different for every player. We are talking about aging curves over hundreds. of players and within that hundreds of players, you are going to have dozens of outliers in both directions. You're going to have Kestin Hira peaking when he's 22. And you're going to have Adrian Beltray playing well until he's 40. So it's there's no hard and fast rule.

You have to look at skill sets and see if they decline or are showing signs of weakness. But generally speaking, yeah, you expect players in their 20s to play better than players in their 30s. There's not going to be a magic formula, though, that helps you ignore risk and or avoid all risk and only find winners. That's not how it works. I don't know if research backs this up necessarily, just kind of anecdotally, I feel like the more athletic of a position the player plays, the more the steeper that aging curve is.

so I don't worry about a first basement at his 30s as much as I do a shortstop or a catcher. So that's, I don't know how whether the agent curves have been updated. The one thing that I always remembered is, you know, and this is Bill James writing in like the 2000s. So we're talking a lifetime ago in baseball terms, you know, probably I think it was a 2008 book that I was reading it. But, you know, he wrote about the idea of old player skills versus young player skills and how, guys who are unathletic early in their career and walk a lot and hit a lot of home runs and strike out a lot. Skills that we associate with older players and generally speaking, strikeout rate increases as you age,

walk rate increases as you age as well. Those guys tend to age worse. And I think it makes sense because they have fewer skills to fall back on. Right? Like if you're a, gosh, I'm really going to age myself with this reference. but like a jack cussed type. You know, like you've got the one trick.

And once your bat slows down, you got nothing else to fall back on. Whereas like Francisco Lindor does everything well. So if he loses a step, he still got a decent amount of skills to fall back on. But that's, again, based on a very different time in baseball. And it could be that the opposite is true. But I think of someone like Paul Goldschmidt

and the way he, age. Now, yes, he is a first baseman. He's been one of the most athletic first baseman his entire time in the league, and he's aged incredibly well, and I think that's a big part of it. Let's take our final break. When we return, we've got a few more questions here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome in. Let's continue on with our email questions. This one's from Nick in an 18 daily categories league with large rosters. I am strong at shortstop with Francisco Lindor and C.J. Abrams, but weak at third base. Would you offer you all for either of them straight up for Gunner Henderson.

I would offer C.J. Abrams straight up. No, hang out a second. Eighteen Daily Categories League. That's a really weird format. I wonder if the outlier stolen base production that we expect from Abrams becomes more valuable in a league that's shallow, especially given that it's a daily categories league.

I like category outliers in head-to-head categories leagues, because when you're chopping up stats into smaller and smaller samples, the more prolific a player is at contributing that stat, the more impactful, the more you can count on them from week to week, basically, or day-to-day in this case. So I don't know. You need a third basement. I get it.

I guess it's fine to trade Abrams for Henderson. I know just looking at my rankings, that's something I would suggest doing, but I'm a little reluctant to do it for that reason. All right, this next one's from Griffin. I know Scott's approach to pitching and the glob has been to prioritize K's and upside. I wanted to see if that approach would ever change. I am in a 14-team, Roto Keeper League with quality starts, and my offense is stacked.

Kyle Tucker, Yordaun Alvarez, Shohei Otani, Adoli-Skarsia, Austin Riley, Jazz Chish, Christian Yelich, you get the deal. I was planning on filling my staff with boring high floor starting pitchers since so much of my resources are tied up in hitting. My general question is, would you adjust your pitching philosophy based on roster construction? No. And I think this is that my approach to the pitching is mainly geared for categories leagues and especially roto leagues. Because the thinking is in a roto league, you kind of have to be. good at everything.

You're going, it doesn't matter how good your offense is if you're bad at pitching. And as somebody who is mostly invested in that boring class of starting pitchers last year, I can tell you, my pitching wrecked some otherwise pretty good roto teams. I'm emphasizing strikeouts

in part so I can give my pitching staff a higher floor because I see strikeouts as being the most reliable of the pitching stats in a particularly unreliable environment for pitching. So if you really commit to the strikeouts, you can assure yourself a high finish in that category, which will raise your overall pitching floor. And then you can hope that it translates to a good ERA and WIP too, because, you know, miss bats usually do. So that's the, that's the theory behind it. And I don't think the quality of my offense would change that approach.

But I think, and I could be wrong, but it might be the point in this question would be, he doesn't have a lot of resources to spend on pitcher. So with limited resources, should he still be prioritizing? Because the high strikeout guys who get drafted later are going to have some serious flaws where, like, you could make the case that like, you know, your Jose Burr. Marroos, Merrill Kelly. Yeah, your Jose Barrios and Mara Kelly types are, one, just more likely to get you to like 190 strikeouts or 170 strikeouts, whatever number, just because they'll kind of brute force their way there. I don't think it's going to be enough.

I think rather than assuring yourself a hole, you got to give yourself a way out of the hole. Like, Jose Barrios isn't going to help you that much in ERA or way. or strikeouts, you know? That's my feeling on it. I mean, obviously, I have yet to put it to the test, but I think I would rather just gamble on Chris Sayo and Nick Povetta and, et cetera, rather than hope that the Jose Barrios and Shane Beavers and whatever else, and probably even lower in than that, right?

keep me in the mid-range at ERA. I don't trust them to do that. Quality starts might add another element to that as well, Scott, because I feel like those higher floor guys, they are more likely to give you quality starts, right? Guys like, you know, Burials, like we just said. I mean, I feel like he always ranks pretty highly in quality starts versus maybe an upside arm going around him like, I don't know,

Michael King or Emmett Sheehan or someone like that, you know? Quality starts might change a little bit. Are you still, though, I mean, are you going to compete with the people who actually drafted aces? Are you going to be able to compete with them in quality starts? Yes, you're right. I mean, if you wanted to sell out for that category, you could try. I don't think you could expect to finish that high. I don't know.

Strikeouts kind of feels like home runs to me, where it has, its effect spreads through all the other categories. I think in this specific instance where this guy's got Tucker Alvarez, Otani, Riley, like, that's... Maybe trade a hitter for a really good pitch. Yeah, you might have too much hitting. Because, like, this is something that I've, like... You only need to win the category by one stat. Right. That's what I was going to say.

In one of my leagues last year, I won stolen bases by 40 or something. And it's like, by the end of the season, it's like, well, I wish I could have traded some of those steals for... a little more somewhere else. And so that that's one thing that I'm thinking is like, you almost might have overkill on hitting in this instance to the point where like trading, gosh, it's hard to figure out. Dolies Garcia would probably be the guy that I would try to trade.

But I know a lot. He's probably also undervalued relative to what he's likely to give. Not necessarily. I mean, he's being drafted after where he's finished each of the last two years. That's fair. still going as a third, fourth round pick. I mean, if you can get a pitcher of fair value Pablo Lopez.

Yeah, that's what I'm like, even like, oh, something like that, you know? I know you guys hate him. But like, I think the idea of training like Adolese Garcia for Aranola could actually really benefit you because there, yes, the ERA could be really bad, but as we've talked

about a lot, he gives you the nice floor of the big strikeout in total. at the end, big inning totals, useful whip, even if the ERA is not green, although it is an even year. Well, I think Adolese Garcia is a sell high in keeper leagues anyway. Yeah.

He's much older than you probably realize, given his short time as an elite player. And I don't think his skills are going to age particularly well. So I don't think you need him on this team. I think he would be the one to shop, absolutely. If Nola is the best you could do for him, I think that's fine. I would also say, Jazz Chisholm, Just I think you're selling low though.

Yeah, I think you're either selling low or this might be blasphemous for as a Marlins fan. I think you might be selling high. Ah, how dare you? All right, we've got five questions left. Let's keep it moving here. Rapid Fire gets to the end from Mike. I'm a commissioner for a league that's split between wanting batting average or OBP in a five-by-five category league.

Instead of choosing one or the other, we decided to make it a six-by-six league. and keep both. Problem is, we need another pitching category for a format like this would be better to add quality starts or holds. I feel holds would add value to relievers and make the league more balanced,

but give me your thoughts. Chris, I mean, those are completely different categories, quality starts and holds. I mean, it completely changes the dynamic of the league. Yeah,

so I think quality starts, you run the risk of double counting. Right? Like, you're already doing that with OPP, though, by having OPP and batting average. I was thinking it would be...

It really should just be a five-by-five. Yeah, I hate when you start adding categories. If you want to replace batting average with OBP, fine. If you want to replace home runs with slugging percentage or total bases, something that's just kind of a expanded version of home-lensy. I think that makes more sense, though, than just adding these categories and making it impossible to focus on things in the draft and double-counting things. And I think the traditional way is nice and clean and works.

I understand it's it values stats that I've kind of fallen out of favor as we've learned more about how baseball works. But I think either you replace stats in the traditional five by five or you just stick to the traditional five by five. I would say with regards to the pitching categories, quality starts will change the shape of your player pool less. Quality starts, you're not, you're drafting the same guys. Like, if you're just adding quality starts, either replacing wins or like, there's this big like, kill the win. We need quality starts. And like, it really doesn't change players value that much. Guys who get a lot of quality starts also tend to get a lot of wins.

Quality starts are a little more predictable. But if you add quality starts to wins, nothing about your strategy changes. If you add holds, that changes it a lot because now you have to really compete for relievers, but it also opens up the player pool and creates makes a lot more players viable. I do think another potential upside, if you're going to do the six by six thing, potential upside of going quality starts and wins to things that essentially reward good starting pitching, what we traditionally mean by starting pitching. I think that's kind of nice.

It prevents manipulation of, you know, these like swingman types or long relievers using them to kind of cheaply move up ERA and whip. If you're double counting accomplishments that purely belong to starting pitchers, you're going to have people more invested in starting pitchers. And I don't think that's a bad thing still. I'd rather just stick to five by five. Here is the answer. Five by five, either batting average or OBP, flip a coin.

Do wins plus quality starts as one category? Saves plus holds as another category. Boom. I'm in a sex plus holds league. I think it's vastly preferable to just saves. All right. Well, I said, let's keep it moving. We didn't keep it moving.

So I'm going to save these final questions, final four questions for next week's mailbag. Okay, I do have to ask. Do you know who the three names in this next one are? Dear Mick, Keith, and Ronnie. It's easy, Chris. Come on. Oh, my God.

It's the Beatles, man. Okay, so you do know. Right? I looked it up before you. Okay. Yeah, there's no way, dude. Like, what are we talking about? Does Scott know?

No, what is it? Tell me. It's the Beatles. It is the Beatles. It's not the Beatles. Okay. It's the Rolling Stones. Oh, Ms. Jagger, yeah.

That's the only one I could have named. The moves like Jagger. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.