Fantasy Baseball Today - Corbin Carroll's Season, Pitching Duels & 2025 Round Association! (9/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: September 19, 2024

Corbin Carroll has played his way back into being a second-round pick in 2025 (4:00). ... Bailey Ober had a huge start against the Guardians (13:42). ... Trevor Story has hit well since returning from the IL (17:10). ... News (22:03): Francisco Lindor won't play on Thursday. ... Let's talk pitching duels, starting with Framber Valdez vs. Dylan Cease (28:10). ... Any interest in Eduardo Rodriguez or Jose Quintana (45:02)? ... Tommy Edman continues to rake (50:12). ... Let's play a little Round Association for 2025 (54:50). ... These three hitters have had down second halves (58:03). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:02:10). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Well, hello there. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today where somebody is punching their microphone.

Who was that? Who was that? Chris? I don't know. Someone. I might have, I have like, Bosses don't listen. I have multiple video game controllers on my desk.

And that may have been me nudging one of them out of the way at the exact wrong time. I apologize for my lack of professionalism. All good. Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Thursday, September 19th. I am Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. We don't need to talk about what I have on my desk. Well, now you've got to tell us what's going on. Just all sorts of miscellaneous junk.

All right, let's share what's going on in the desk. For those that are watching on YouTube, I have a Michael Scott Funko Pop right here. All my Funko Pops are behind me. You can't really see them, though. I have a holographic squirtle, like an all-silver squirtle from Pokemon. I got this little dog.

Yeah, there's all miscellaneous items on the desk here on. You know, we act like it's, okay, home office, and I got a bunch of toys on my, desk because I have kids, but like when I was in an actual office, mostly my desk just had toys on it too. Yeah, no, I have a, I have a similar amount of chotch keys, whether I'm at home or, I mean, it's been like five years since I've worked out of an office, but yeah. Yeah. As long as I've worked at CBS, I've worked from home, so I can't brag about ever being in an office or having a cubicle or anything like that. Today on the show, we had tons of pitchers duels five that we're going to talk about

baseball. Yes, we are eventually. The latest waiver options for the final week of the season and we'll do a little bit of 2025 round association. I will give these guys a player and they will give me the first round that comes to mind for where they think they'll be drafted next season. But let's jump in. Can you believe it? Wow! I think we played that yesterday. I'm just a mess man. I don't know what's going on. Chris, that's all right. Who's your player of the night? Corbyn Carroll is my play.

of the night. He hit two home runs today, including a 438 foot bomb that is one of the longest home runs of his career. He's actually had a couple over 440. I don't think he had any last year. And Corby and Carroll's a really interesting player because if you can remember all the way back to like the depths of June, I think if we had said Corbyn Carol, was going to be a second round pick in 2025, our listeners would have rioted. And now I think he's unquestionably a second round pick. I think everybody would have rioted. I mean, at the time, it wasn't just Corbyn Carroll's off to a slow start.

It was Corbyn Carroll's off to a slow start. And this confirms the shoulder troubles of 2023. To be clear, for the first two months of the season, he was useless. He had like a 570 op. yes. He had two homers in the first two months of the season. He still only had five at the All-Star break. And now he's up to 21. Is that right? I believe that's right. 21 homers, 29 steals. He's not going to end up with the numbers we thought he would. He's hitting like 233. He's not going to be able to fix that. But like the second half version of Corpard

and Carroll before this game. Since the All-Star break, he was the number seven player in Roto Leaks. That's basically what you drafted him as. He was the number five player in ADP. So I guess technically it wasn't quite what you drafted him for. But I think the point is that after a very slow start, Corby and Carroll has basically been what you hoped he would be. And there are good reasons for why he was struggling.

struggling so much. And this is something that I kind of missed at the time, but I've gone back to it a few times since. There was a great piece from Jordan Schusterman from Yahoo. He spoke to Corby and Carroll back in May. And Corby and Carroll talked about how this offseason prior to the season, the one thing he worked on most of all was improving his bat speed. He had a great rookie season, but always trying to get better. He said that was the one thing he thought he can improve. specifically he cited struggles with fastballs up as the reason why he was trying to do that. And it seems to have screwed up his swing. The quote from Corby and Carol was,

quote, I was popping a lot of balls up and like counterintuitively, it was because my swing was too flat. My window for success was small. I was either on top of balls and hitting ground ball or under the ball and popping it straight up. He said it's a problem if it starts taking away from your strengths. So I just want to work.

on keeping my strengths, my strength, and working a little bit more at margins, rather than what he did this off-season, which was, you know, try to overhaul his swing. And, you know, the specific details were he was kind of corkscrewing himself a little bit too much before he swung to try to create a little more torque, pointing his back to pitchers, which was, one,

causing him to not read the ball as well, and two, to just, it messed up his time. And it messed up the bat play. for his swing, the swing plane for him. And it kind of reminds me of two scenarios. One, Cody Ballinger coming off his MVP season. If you remember, that was one. He worked on his swing and seemed to just completely screw himself up.

There were also injuries involved in that, but pretty famously was like trying to hit for more contact, become less pull happy, I believe it was the thought process there. And it just completely screwed up. And obviously Cody Belcher never was the same guy again, even last very different type of player. And then Jose Ramirez is the one that I really think of because it's a very similar thing where he was one of the best players in baseball, identified like one thing that didn't hold him back yet, but he was trying to get ahead of it. With Jose Ramirez, it was the shift. He was very, he's been very pull heavy and he was trying to stop being so pull heavy to.

to make himself a little less defensible, and it just screwed his whole swing up. That was in 2019. 2019, yeah, he was terrible in the first half of that season. And he talked about that, how he was trying to beat the shift. He wasn't hitting him where they ain't. He also wasn't hitting him where the fans were. He just wasn't hitting at all.

And you're right. It was the same thing as Carol. Like he was, his numbers were in the dregs. It was, yeah. And then just like Carol, just kind of reverted back to who he was. almost overnight. And we're half taken, half taken later, Joseo Ramirez is about to have the quietest 40-40 season in Major League history.

And so more or less think that Corby and Carroll is fine for 2025. I'm not ranking him as a top five player like we were last year. Scott, I know you had him 16th in your ranking the first round. and I think that's probably reasonable. Like his, what we have seen from him is that his floor, when things go wrong, can be really, really low. We've never seen the floor that low from Fernando Tatis or even Julia Rodriguez was better than Corby and Carol as a hitter early on this season. But his ceiling is really high, certainly top five. And so I think when you put all that together, second round, probably early second round in a third round.

12 team league is where Corby and Carroll will likely and should be drafted for 2025. Yeah, obviously, I agree since I have him 16th. And I could, you know, I could see moving him up from there for bad spots. I have him right behind Fernando Tatis and Julio Rodriguez, who we've seen have even better years in the past. I do think it's worth pointing out. As studly as Corby and Carol has been since the start of July, and as much as he's redeemed his fantasy value,

he hasn't looked quite like he did as a rookie, his batting average during that four-month stretch, four-month or so stretch, 261. And his stolen base pace is... Much slower. More like a 25. steel pace rather than a 50 steel pace. So he's getting a ton of extra base hits.

He's hitting for power again. I think he's, I believe. The overall takeaway is I think he's more or less fine too. And I wouldn't have any qualms about taking him in round two next year. But I don't know that he can be much better than he was as a rookie. Like that might be as good as it gets for him, which is why, you know,

He's more like 16th than 8th for me. But the main thing I want to say about Corbyn Carroll with the way he's turned to season around is what I referred to earlier, the shoulder stuff. Nobody should bring that up again. Yeah, I think we're past that. That's a dead narrative. That's been the official line throughout. The official line last year was the shoulder wasn't an issue. The official line earlier this season was the shoulder was never an issue.

He's had MRIs throughout the process to check up on it. And it hasn't been an issue at all this season. So I think the swing change is probably the better explanation for why he was so bad early on. It's better than a 25 steel pace. It's more like a 30 to 35 steel pace. Just to clarify that. It hasn't been, yeah, he's been better for steals than I thought. But it hasn't been the 50 steel guy he was as rookie.

The sprint speed is still amazing for what it's worth. 96 percentile for Corbyn Carroll. I think what he's going to score 120 runs this season. That's kind of bonkers. I tweeted this earlier. He had like a 600 OPS in the first half and he still has 115 run score on the season. That, I mean, it's also a testament

to how good the D-BACs lineup has been this season, but throughout everything, he still has been getting on base and obviously doing a much better job here in the second half. I think that everything you guys laid out makes sense. I will not be bringing up the shoulder any time soon. I will just say,

I don't think we're completely at like... Just the fact that someone has had shoulder surgery, I will never forget the swings that he made last year and then just completely dropped the bat. How's the one of those this year, though? He has not, he has not. So like, it's not in the back of my, it won't be in the back of my mind

heading into next season at all unless we see something in the postseason that happens. Like, I won't think about it until it happens again, but it's still kind of there. I think there might be a slightly higher elevated risk for him than your average player, but it shouldn't be a reason not to draft him. I'm not even sure it's a tiebreaker.

Yeah, no. After getting through the whole season. I think that's totally fair for him. Scott, your player of the night. Okay. My player of the night, I've forgotten after those 12 minutes

of talking about Corbyn Carroll. It's Mitch Keller. No, it's Bailey over. It's Bailey over. It's American League, American League Mitch Keller. Ah, no. No, he's much better than Mitch Keller.

and he had characteristic Bayleober start here at Cleveland. Two earn runs and seven innings zero walks, 12 strikeouts. He has been a good strikeout pitcher. He's been a phenomenal control pitcher

as he's always been. Big fly ball guy. So he excels at hit prevention and strike throwing. And that makes for a teeny tiny whip for Bailey Ober. His whip on the season is 0.9. 7.

Fantastic. His ERA is 384. Not so great. That can happen for pitchers who put the ball in the air a lot. Again, they're not allowing a lot of base runners, but they do get burned by home runs sometimes. And I think Bailey Ober's previous start, five earned runs, right?

It was kind of a misstep. But I don't want to focus on the five earn run start, okay? I want to focus on two starts Bailey Ober had this year. Two starts that were just comically bad. One was his very first start of the season. And the other was just a few turns ago, right? Yeah.

Between the two, he allowed 17 earn runs in, I believe it was three in a third inning. Three in a third innings. I wrote about this. I got all the numbers here, if you want. Comically bad. Starts that would be difficult. to replicate if you tried. If you remove those two starts,

I know people don't like this, I love it. Say the line, Bart. If you remove those two, just those two, 299 ERA 0.8. I have it at 278. Did I do the math wrong? Did you not include today's start? I might not have included today's start then.

All right, yeah, 299.088. And that's why, between that, the fact that he's working deeper into games, like consistently going six plus innings, often seven, sometimes even eight or nine. That's a new thing for Bailey Ober now. And he's like, he's built to take on that workload.

The guy's six foot nine. I don't know if you've watched him, he's huge. I think Bailey Ober needs to be regarded as a fantasy ace. I don't know that that literally means drafting him among the top 12 pitchers, but it's probably going to mean top 15 for me.

And if you saw my bold predictions article, on the site last week, you'll know that one of those bold predictions, which are meant to be a little far-fetched. But one of them was that Bailey Ober is the A.L.I. Young winner next year. I don't know if that's going to become my prudent prediction when we make legit predictions. But while I have my bold hat on, that's one of them. That's how high I am on Bailey Ober going forward.

In this particular spot, I did want to point out that he changed up his pitch mix entirely. He faded his four-scene fastball in Cutter threw his change-up something like 48% of the time and it was amazing. It got 11 whiffs, a 38% with rate. I don't know how sustainable it is to throw your change up almost 50% of the time but his fastball and cutter have been his two worst pitches

this season. So he did the thing. He faded his bad pitches. He threw his good pitches and obviously had a pretty awesome start here up against the Guardians. Player of the night for me is going to be Trevor Story who had himself a huge game, two for three with a sock and two shoes. He's in 10 games since returning,

batting 286 with two home runs, four steals, a 781 OPS. He's 31% rostered, so widely available. If you play at a 12-team Roto League with a middle infield spot, I think you can look at Trevor's story for the final week of the season.

He's got six games on the schedule. This is the player I thought we were getting coming into the season. I was really excited to draft Trevor's story because, you know, it was his first normal offseason with the Red Sox. He wasn't coming off of an injury.

I thought there was legit 20-20 potential with a middling batting average to anywhere from like 240 to 260, which is probably a little bit worse than middling. But yeah, this is the player I thought we were going to get. And it's kind of surprising that he missed all this time with like shoulder surgery and then came back and he's just looked this good again.

But yeah, I think he's in play for the final week if you need a shortstop or a middle infielder. Yeah, he's played 155 games since getting to Boston. And like you said, it's been a lot. lot of missed time across the three seasons that we're talking about here. But in those 155 games, 21 homers, 88 RBI, 28 stolen bases, 70 runs scored, 228 batting average pretty terrible. That's bad, yeah. And I think he is likely to be a batting average liability moving forward. Even Fenway is a good park for batting average, but his strikeout rate is super high.

I think he's probably not. Like if he hits 250, that's probably a huge win for you. Plus, wasn't there, wasn't a, it's, it's, you know, obviously the more recent shoulder injury has kind of overshadowed this, but wasn't one of the storylines surrounding Trevor's story, that first year in Boston, wasn't he like playing through a bathebow or something? He had, he ultimately had Tommy John surgery. He had, uh, the internal bracing.

I think it was their internal bracing. But that was known when they signed him. Right. His throwing speed dropped precipitously his last year or two in Colorado. And that was why he was playing second base when he first signed with him. So my point, even his last year in Colorado was a step back offensively. So my point is I don't think we've seen a healthy Trevor store yet in Boston. I don't even know that we can take anything from those numbers.

I will point out that since returning from the I.L. these average XIVA velocity is like 84 miles per hour. But he did hit this home run 105, which is a good sign. And, you know, just because of the nature of the injury of being a significant shoulder injury, you wonder if that might affect his power. Yeah, I mean, we thought his season was over. Yeah. Right.

So, you know, Trevor's story won't be somebody who's drafted in a lot of leagues next year, I would guess, and only a late rounder in the ones he is drafted. but there is still upside there. I think a late round, middle infield sleeper, you know, I still think he has 20-20 potential. It's just we are consistently robbed of just seeing what he can do in a full season in Boston. Hopefully we get that next year from Trevor Story.

Let's take our first break, and when we return, we'll hit the news and notes right after this. Welcome back in news and notes. Francisco Lindor remained out of the lineup Wednesday and is unlikely to play on Thursday as well. The hope is here. He could return at some point this weekend. Kenley Jansen is dealing with a shoulder injury.

He did pick up the save here on Wednesday, but struggled with command and apparently had decreased velocity. Jordan Westberg is expected to begin a rehab assignment on Thursday. He's been out since August 1st with a fractured right hand. They're hoping he'll be ready to go for the final week of the season. And then obviously that would be a pretty big boost for the Orioles lineup heading into the postseason. Bobauchette was scratched from the lineup due to a right middle finger contusion. He just returned to the blue josephi.

yesterday. This is not a recurring injury, but another injury nonetheless. Luis Arise was out of the lineup with a sore knee for the Padres. Justin Steele did make his return to the mound on Wednesday against the A's, but it was an abbreviated start. He only threw two and two-thirds, shutout innings, got up to 57 pitches in that one, returning from an elbow injury, and I believe did not have a rehab start. So that's probably why this start was so short for Justin. and steel. Kodi Isinga hopes to make a one-inning rehab appearance with AAA this weekend. If it goes

well, he could join the Mets as a reliever in the final week. Gavin Stone is unlikely to return before the end of the season. He's on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Bobby Miller was optioned back to AAA through 13 starts the season. 852 ERA 177 whip will be a fascinating player to hear from this off season, I just want him to come out and say, my shoulder was never right. That's what I can't imagine with the talent

and the prospect pedigree that he's this bad. I just can't imagine it. But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he is that bad. I don't know. The Orioles have officially designated Craig Kimball for assignment. Is this the end for Craig Kimbril? I'm gonna say no.

It might depend on how willing he is to take a minor league deal next year. He'll be closing for the Marlins next year. Maybe. He's still has his velocity. He's overcome, I mean, stretch is not quite this long, but stretches where he's looked totally lost before. And I think he still has something.

I mean, he was, I remember tweeting out at the All-Star break. I thought he was one of the biggest All-Star snubs because of how good he was in the first half. And so, you know, obviously it's going to take a team with some patience and not as much to lose to give him a shot, but I think he'll get a shot. You know, Frank, we were talking about, like, is he still a Hall of Famer a couple of days, maybe yesterday? Yeah. And like, I will say among relievers who have thrown at least 800 innings, and he's only at 809, which is really low for a Hall of Fame reliever, he actually, he, over the last 18 games, I saw stat, he's just, dropped from a 171 career ERA plus to a 158, which is just a massive number that's dropped over

18 appearances. That's crazy. For a pitcher with a 15-year career, that is a bonker stat. I will point out, he's dropped from third among an ERA plus among relievers to third. He's still behind Billy Wagner and Mario Arrera. He's just, he's closer. Like, there's not that much difference now between Craig Kimbrose. on Joe Nathan's career numbers.

And Joe Nathan obviously didn't go to the Hall of Fame. So I think it makes him a guy who probably was a lock to probably pretty borderline. And I'm not sure if that's actually fair. These last 18 games don't really change what Kirk Himble did when he was good. But yeah, it's a huge drop. I think people forget because it's been a while now. it's been seven, eight years. But Craig Kimbril had the best peak of probably any closer ever.

Yeah, no, he led the National League in saves his first four years in the league. With an ERA during that four-year stretch of 151. Yeah. 14.6K per 9.8. Yeah, he was. I know some people are just anti-relievers being in the whole of Fame, but watching Craig Kimberl's career play out from beginning to end, it has felt like he is a Hall of Famer.

The Hall of Fame should represent the game as it was played, all right? And relievers are a very important part of the game. Closers are paid like elite players. They should be in the Hall of Fame. The bar should be really, really high. But I'm also the weirdo who thinks like whoever the best punter of all time should probably be in the pro. Ray Guy, I think.

I think he actually is in the Hall of Fame. but good fucker should be in the Hall of Fame too. That's my hot take. Last news item here, pretty big for the Mets long term, some dynasty related news as well. Christian Scott will undergo a traditional Tommy John surgery combined with an internal brace early next week and he will miss the entire 2025 season.

Wasn't great this year with the Mets in his debut. Got off to a nice start, but then obviously kind of trailed off there. So hopefully heading into 2026, we can see a revamped to Christian Scott. And there was an interesting comment when he first went down with the injury this year. He said he went through something like this last summer too, which makes you wonder. Did we see Christian Scott at full strength at all this year? Yeah. I believe he was a reliever in college and then they transitioned him to a starter. So, you know, still kind of building up those innings throughout his career. I really don't think he's thrown that many innings at all throughout his professional career. So, yeah, we'll see. Hopefully, we're rooting for Christian Scott. He is also 25 already. So next time we see him will be almost 27. That's fair. All right. Let's get into some pitchers duels. We had five of them. Five, like really good pitching performances here on Wednesday.

First up, Framber Valdez at Dylan C's. Valdez seven innings, one run, six strikeouts, 13 whiffs on 94 pitches. actually didn't really have his best curveball in this one, but still managed a very strong start here. And on the other side, Dylan Sees, a near complete game, eight and a third, shutout innings, five strikeouts, 12 whiffs on 103 pitches.

Still allowed 13 hard hits in this one, but filling up the strike zone did not walk anybody. I think that is a huge takeaway here. Chris, anything else to add on Dylan Sees and Framber Valdez? Yeah, so Valdez had more strikeouts than innings pitched in eight of nine starts, beginning on July 10th, and he has fallen short of that in his last two. It's, I think, 12 strikeouts in 13 in a third inning, so it's not like he's completely falling apart. But,

you know, I was talking about, well, this change to go curveball heavy has made him a legit strikeout pitcher and maybe it changes the way we think about Framber Valdez for next season. If he's not going to quite sustain it, then I think it probably just takes him out of that top 12 consideration that I was talking about, but still a rock solid number two. Dylan Cease, I kind of think I'm just going to take the same tack with him that I take with Blake Snell. Will you rank them similarly then? Probably. I think I'll rank Dill and C's higher just because there is so much less volatility in terms of workload.

Like Dillacese, I don't know if Dillac's has ever missed a start. He feels at the major league. Very safe innings-wise. Yeah. He has made 30. or more starts in four straight seasons. He made 12 the previous year. That was 2020.

So I think I'll rank Dylan C's ahead just because he's less volatile. But I think I'm also a lot less likely to draft Dillan C's this season in 2025 than I did in 2024 just because I think there's an inherent volatility to his performance. Let me ask you this. since you seem to be wavering on Fromber Valdez just a little bit. Valdez or Ober next year? I will probably go with Valdez. I'm going to go with Ober. I can see it.

I just think it's pretty easily Valdez for me. He's just so much more proven, you know? Well, most of what he's proven to be is kind of the middling. RA and Whip guy who eats a lot of innings? I think that is selling him pretty. Yeah, I mean, this year alone, he is a 285 ERA and a 108 whip. Let's start in the 2020 breakout. But I'm saying pre this year.

314, 282, 345, 285, 285. It's basically just the 345 from last year that's mediocre. Everything else has been really, really good. Now, the whip a little higher. This is the first year under 1-1. The strikeouts, usually end up decent in terms of volume, but not necessarily in terms of rates.

But I think the thing with Rembrandro Valdez that I liked when he was, you know, really taking a step forward with the strikeouts, he was at like 32% over a nine-star stretch was we know the floor is really high. Like we know this guy is about as safe a bet for 200 endings as anyone. Good ratios, good team backing him up. if he's a 220 strikeout guy, that just ties the whole room together, right? Like, that's a top 12 guy.

And I like betting on that because even if, you know, shoot for the moon, even if you miss, you land amongst the stars, right? Even if he's not a top 12 guy, is he going to be much lower than like 20th? The floor is so high. Probably not.

Yeah, any pitches for a really, really good team. The twins should be good too. Don't get me wrong. But the Astros are just perennally, world series content. I will also say if the case you're making for a pitcher is floor and projectability, there's still pitchers, right?

Aren't we? Yeah, but there is. This was what we were saying about Sandy Alcantra. And then he had a season where he fell apart and then had Tommy John surgery, you know? But there is still projection involved with even ranking Bailey Ober as a top 15 starter. Like he hasn't even done that. Agreed. Yes.

I think Ober's ceiling is higher. Frambervaldez's floor is much, much higher. All right. Let's move on to Bailey over, by the way. We already talked about him, but that was a pitcher's duel as well because Tanner Bybee was really good on the other side of that start. Six and two-thirds innings, two runs, five strikeouts, 15 whiffs on 96 pitches here. Four starts in September. Bybee is back on track 304, ERA 110 whip just over a strikeout per inning.

Scott, we spoke extensively about Ober. but anything here on Tanner Bybee? I guess I'll mention the number. I jotted down. Last 22 starts. It's a big chunk of starts. Most of a season's worth of starts. Last 22 starts for Tanner Bybee, a 313 ERA, a 105 whip.

9.7K per 9. Yeah. It's really good. Can I go back to something there with Bailey Ober versus Framber Valdez? Because he said the floor for Framber Valdez, Framber Valdez is much, much higher. Mm-hmm. If you like the floor for Bailey Ober is pretty darn high.

He has a career whip of 107, and he has a better K-per-9 rate than Framber Valdez. His career K-per-9 rate is higher than Valdez this year. I just, you lamb-basted Frambervaldez. Or his middling ERA, in your words, his middling ERA. It was not the best. Bailey Over's 343 ERA last season would be the second worst of Framber's career, right? Yeah. They essentially had the same ERA last year.

Yeah. But Bramber was much better over as a fantasy option because he. Yeah, because he pitched more innings. Yeah. But that's the one thing we know he's going to do. Well, we don't know anyone's going to throw a lot of endings. But we are more confident about that with Framber Valdez than basically any other pitcher in baseball, except for maybe DILA C's.

Ober's career ERA is 372. Framber Valdez is 331. And he's done it over a lot more innings. So even this year, his ERA is almost a full run better than Paley Obers. Okay. I know. You're not mentioning the whip.

You're not mentioning the strike. Yeah, the way. Whip is, Ober is a much better whip pitcher than Framber. He is. But even if we look at like FIP, X, the things we cite often, it's much better for Framber Valdez.

Well, X-FIP's going to be high for over because he's a fly ball pitcher. And for Robert Valdez is the same as his ERA, Scott. It's 3-84. His X-FIP is 384. That's the thing I struggle with with the take out the two starts is like, but the skills indicator say he is what he is. Well, I don't really buy X-FIP anymore because I just think it. And his X-ERA is a little better.

Unfairly downgrades fly-ball pitchers. And his X-ERA is a little better. It's like 328 entering today. And I like Billy Ober. I was maybe the highest on Billy Ober coming into the season, but I just should be validated. I just don't think he's on the same. He's been amazing. I don't think

he's on the same level as Farmer Valdez. Maybe I'm wrong about that. Maybe it's just like a perception thing. I don't know. Because Valdez has just been around for so long, but dig in in the offseason. Next pitcher's duel, Spencer Schwellenbach up against Jacob Junis. Schwellenbach, six innings, one run, five

strikeouts, and Jacob Junis, his first quality start of the season. You know, we've been getting a lot of four, five-innings starts from him. Much better here. Six innings, one run, six strikeouts. He has made last four starts with the Reds. 20 innings, six hits,

two earned runs, one walk, 17 strikeouts. So Junis has been lights out. Chris, anything to add on Shwellenbach? And any chance you would stream Junis in a deeper league next week? He's at the Guardians. Their lineup feels ice cold.

Maybe. Uh, it just, it also feels like what we just saw from Joey Estes is entirely possible, uh, from Jacob Junus every time he takes them out. It hasn't happened yet, but I, I think in like, there might only be one start left for him. So the long run might not matter. But I think in the long run, Jacob Junus is not very good. So I, I, I certainly don't want to stake my reputation to on relying on Jacob Junus being a good idea. But, but. It could work out. Schwellenbach, I do want to say just, like, he's been a little less good in September, right? At 16 strikeouts and 22 in a third innings, he is 90 innings almost above his career high as a professional or amateur, as far as I can tell. The fact that he's still finding ways to get it done, I think does bode very well. Like, he hasn't been quite as sharp lately. And he still has, I think, a 297 ERA in the month of September.

So, yeah, that 317 ERA in the month of September. So I, the innings leap is going to give him a big injury red flag in 2025. And if you're, if you're worried about those things, that might be enough to take him off your board. I think on a pure talent level, Spencer Schoenbach is top 25. looking ahead to 2025. And it's just a question of how likely is it that he stays healthy relative to everyone else.

Really good control from Schwellenbach. He has awesome secondary pitches. Tons of whiffs. Two secondary pitches with a 40 plus percent whiff rate. So man, it just feels like the sky is the limit next season for Spencer Schwellenbach. He could be like the next Shane Bieber. I think that's a that's a profile

that could make a lot of sense as a comp for Spencer Sweldenbach. Next up we had Bowden Francis at Cody Bradford. Francis six innings two runs, six strikeouts. And Cody Bradford, seven shutout innings back on track. Had six strikeouts in that one as well. Scott, can I ask you about next week for Francis? It looks like he lines up for two starts up against the Red Sox and the Marlins.

And for Cody Bradford, he's 59% rostered. He's at Oakland. Are you all right starting Bowden, Francis? And Cody Bradford is still available if you need a pitcher for the final week. Obviously, you're starting Bowden Francis. He's only 52% started on CBS. Surprising? Yeah, I mean, it was a one-start week with, who was he facing?

Texas. Good match-up. Texas. Yeah, a pretty good match-up. That is kind of surprising. Should have been started more, yeah. Yeah. I know in one of the leagues where I'm competing for a championship,

it's only a 10-team league, and I started Bouten Francis in that league. Yeah, two starts. His velocity was down a little bit in this start, but it was actually down even more in the previous start where he took a no-hitter into the ninth. So I don't think it's anything to worry about. I think Bowden Francis is a must start for two starts. And maybe anyway.

As for Cody Bradford, yeah, I like that matchup against Oakland. He came through in this matchup against the Blue Jays, who are particularly bad against left-handers. So that seemed like a good play. He was among my sleeper pitchers. And he bounced back nicely from that rough start against the Diamondbacks where he gave up three home runs, that's the other side of the coin, fly ball pitcher.

You know, for the most part, Cody Bradford has been untouchable, but when he got touched up, he got really touched up against a good lineup there, who homered three times off of him. And I suggested you need to let it roll off of you with the matchups he has coming up, and so far it's paid off for those who stuck with Cody Bradford.

Last pitching duel of the night, Nestor Cortez up against Bryce Miller. Cortez threw six shutout innings with six strikeouts, and it looks like he would have two starts next week against the Pirates and the Orioles. And then Bryce Miller, six innings, one run, eight strikeouts. And last 14 starts, 211, ERA. 0.94 whip for Bryce Miller.

Chris, what do you think about these two? Are you okay with Nestor Cortez two starts next week? Yeah, versus Pittsburgh versus Baltimore. I think that's pretty good. He's been much better at home this season too. Yeah, I started him in one league this week. Obviously, the Mariners are a great matchup. I think he's probably pretty useful.

Look, the overall numbers, I think, are pretty much what he is. It's a 370 RA, pretty good whip. You know, he's a decent pitcher, but not a must start or even must roster one necessarily for 2025, but I think he's pretty good. Miller, I think, is so interesting. Because remember early last season, he was just spamming fastball, starring him like 80% of the time. He had no secondaries that he could reliably throw. He's like turning into Chris Bassett lately.

He throws like seven pitches consistently. It's a pretty interesting turnaround. I think it's a testament to the pitching development that the Mariners have, especially and obviously great home ballpark, which helps the overall results through a really nice splitter to strike out Aaron Judge, a right-on-right splitter, which I always love to see in the first inning. We've talked about it a lot. I think the Mariners might have five top 40 starting pitchers in 2025 for the rankings.

And I'm not sure if Miller or Brian Wu should be the lowest ranked of the five, but I think I like all of them. them at this point. I feel like that's a trend around the game right now. Just, you know, speaking of individual examples, I pulled up when I'm going through my nightly box score review. Like, for pitchers who maybe don't have a great secondary arsenal, just learn a lot of secondary pitches that you throw very occasionally to kind of keep hitters. on their toes that way.

And Bryce Miller seems to have adopted it to great effect. Let's take our final break. And when we return, some other waiver wire options for the final week. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in waiver wire pitchers. Either of these two for the final week. Eduardo Rodriguez, where did this come from? In course field, six and a third innings, two runs,

11 strikeouts. He had 16 whiffs on 94 pitches, 11 of those on the fastball. And it looks like he will be a two-star pitcher for next week up against the Giants and the Padres. And Jose Cantana, seven shutout innings, four strikeouts, up against the nationals over his last five starts. 0.28 ERA, 0.91 whip,

and only 20 strikeouts over 32 innings. He's getting a ton of ground balls, Jose Cantana. He also looks like a two-star pitcher at the Braves and at the Brewers. Scott, if those two do line up for those matchups, are any of them in consideration for sleeper pitchers? tomorrow? You say tomorrow because that's when I put the article together. But yeah, for next week, two-star pitchers, I think they'll both be in strong consideration.

You mentioned Kintana's getting a lot more ground balls and he threw his sinker 53% of the time this time. So he seems to be really leaning into that, just going to a pitch-to-contact ground ball approach. And I don't know, I doubt it's going to like work forever for Jose Kintana, but it, it, It's working for right now, and at least one of those two matchups, the final week, the Braves, is good. As for Eduardo Rodriguez, it was in Coorsfield, and pitches move differently there, and so it's kind of hard to take anything away from a Coorsfield start good or bad, as Chris has often pointed out. but he continued doing something in this start that seemed to work for him in his previous start to Eduardo Rodriguez's previous start it was only five innings but he struck out seven in five

innings got 12 whiffs nine on his fastball and in this one this six innings start again at the Rockies he got 16 whiffs 11 on his fastball so he's getting a ton of wiffs with his fastball of a sudden Coorsfield or not. And I think it has to do with him upping his cutter usage. And that might be disguising itself better, helping disguise the fastball better, I should say, which is allowing it to play up.

I don't know if that's a long-term solution for Eduardo Rodriguez either, but his last two starts have been his best starts yet. So I feel like he's somebody to consider with two starts the final week. Again, one pretty good matchup against the Giants, one not so good against the Padres. I will point out the Giants have the fifth highest strikeout rate against lefties.

They also have the 10th highest Wobah against lefties. And then the Padres are kind of the opposite end of the spectrum. They're 19th in Wobah against lefties. They have by far the lowest strikeout rate. They only strike out 17% of the time against lefties. The rest of the league is at 19% or higher. So a little bit of a mixed bag as far as matchups for Eduardo Rodriguez. guys, I think I'd trust him ahead of Jose Cantana though.

Would you take a one-star Cody Bradford against the A's over both? Yes. I think I would, yeah. I think it depends on what I need. In a points league, I'd probably go with the two-star guys. If I need strikeouts, I'd probably fade Cody Bradford as well. But I think the ratio is probably tilting his favor. Two pitchers in deeper leagues. Basically, start anybody except Reed Detmer's against the White.

White Sox, Jack Kohanowitz, not a name that we have talked about. Tossed a gem, seven innings, one run, five strikeouts against the White Sox here. And last seven starts, he has a 305 ERA 115 whip. This is not a typo. 15 strikeouts over 44 and a third innings. And five of them came in this one start. Is this 1983? He just spams us.

I know you do, Frank. Yeah, he spams a sinker. was like 75% of the time. It's been working. I don't know. I don't think it's very sustainable, but I don't either. Last seven starts, it's been...

It looks like he faces the White Sox again next week, so... I don't know. Deep leagues, maybe you do it. Landon Nack pitched well at the Marlins. Five shot out innings, two hits, two walks, seven strikeouts. He's 16% rostered. Looks like he lines up for two starts. One against the Padres and one in course field, so...

Don't love the matchups. Nope. Nope. Fly ball pitcher. Works out great against... the Marlins, probably not going to happen at Coorsfield. He does have a really, really interesting fastball. This is Landon Knack you're talking about? Landon Knack, yeah.

He was getting like 21 inches of induced vertical break with it, which is an elite mark. And he's had a decent rookie seat. I'm interested to see, you know, Landon Nack maybe as a sleeper for 2025. We frankly have no idea who will be available for the Dodgers rotation in 2025. And we're assuming it'll be a six-man rotation. But he's a name to consider in a sleeper capacity.

Some potential Waverwire hitters for the final week. Tommy Edmund is someone we have talked a lot about. He hit his sixth home run here on Wednesday. He has hit all six of those homers in the past eight games. And he's off to a great start with the Dodgers. He's 77% rostered. So shallow leagues for the final league. Final week, six games, three of them in Cordes Field.

So Tommy Edmund, absolutely in play for the final week of the season. Middle infield options. We mentioned Trevor Story. Otto Lopez, Chris, continues to hit two for four with a double, two runs, two RBI, his 18th steel. Since the start of August, he's batting 307, three homers, 10 steals, and OPS over 800. What do you like more? Final week. Trevor Story, Otto Lopez.

A story. I guess if you specifically need to make up ground and batting average and you're like, it's probably not going to make that big of a difference. But Trevor Story's a liability there. And I think Otto Lopez is probably not a liability. I don't want to say he's a positive despite a very good season, but he's not a liability. Some middle infield prospects, Nick York off to a nice start here with the Pirates, two for four with his second steel.

He went three for four on Tuesday, 0 for three with his first steel. that came on Monday. And Luis Anhele-A-Cunia, two big games in a row, two-for-four with his second home run in as many days. He had three more hard hits in this game, including one that was 108.5. That was actually a double play, but it's two days in a row.

He has a batter ball over 108 miles per hour. It's kind of interesting. He slugged 355 at AAA, so I don't know where this is coming from. I guess he's in Acuna. So maybe he's, just tapping into that dormant strength in there. It really does.

You know in Frank, you probably don't know, but in Willy Wonka in the chocolate factory, when that kid gets shrunk, the little cowboy kid, that is what Luis Anhele Cunia looks like. He looks like they just shrunk Ronald Acuna. It's like identical swing.

Yeah. Just he's, you know, 5'9 instead of 6'2 or whatever. I don't think either are in play, right, but it's nice to see that they're often good starts for their careers. It is. It is.

You have in the notes here, if Lindor returns will Acuna play? I don't think so. Because I don't know if you've seen what Jose Aglacius is doing. Really, he's been doing all season, but especially in September. He's been... Ongi. Piling out multiple hit games. Yeah.

All right. And Tyler Soderstrom is back for the A's 2-4 with his 8th. home run that's back-to-back games with multiple hits for next week. Who you got? Deeper two catcher leagues. Soder Strom or Hunter Saul Goodman. I'm going, well, I don't have the matchups pulled up. The Rockies play six games at Cores next week, right?

Six games in Corsia. Going with Saul Goodman. You got to think that tips the scales in his favor. Yeah, though I will note that Tyler Soder Strum has looked fantastic coming back from this bruise wrist. Even on his AAA rehab assignment, he hit 450 with three homers in six games. And now he's, yeah, he's looked good. And a lot of potential there for Tyler Soderstrom.

Hopefully he leaves a strong impression for next year when he will be first base only. Yeah, that's the problem. If he had stayed, I drafted Tyler Sotom late in a bunch of two catcher leagues. if he had stayed healthy, the theory of the case checked out. He might have hit like 17 home runs this season if he stayed healthy. Yeah, eight homers in 53 games.

If he played almost every day as their first baseman, he could have got to 20 home runs or close to it. Quality of content, like underlying numbers are actually not bad. He's got a 347 expected woe, but there might be something here. I think it's unlikely to matter if he's first base only outside. of A-L-only leagues, but there might be a player there.

Yep. Yeah, we never, there's no telling when the breakout will happen. I mean, I don't know that you need to go into next year predicting at first base, Soderstrom's going to break out, but a lot of prospect pedigree, good exit velocities. It can happen. Round association for 2025. So like word association, I will say a player's name. You give me your knee-jerk reaction for what round that player will be drafted in next year.

Of course, assuming 12-team leagues. First one's kind of a throwaway because you already said, but we'll do it anyway. Corbyn Carroll. Second round. Round two. All right. Next up, Manny Machado.

I love Manny Machado for next year. One of my bold predictions in that article was actually Manny Machado will have a career year next year. And since June 1st, he's basically done that with his two homers here on Wednesday. Mani Machado Hang on I gotta find the number Mani Machado with his two homeruns here on Wednesday

303 24 home runs and OPS around 900 since June 1st I think he will be drafted in round I gotta get some pitchers in there Late round four That was the longest word slash round association of all times

Yeah I was gonna say Get the Dan Labitard show Poppy you don't get the show Oh, drop going. All right, well, next up is... I mean, look, I'm going to do the same thing. Marcelo Zuna. Three.

I'm going to say four. I'm going to say four. All right. Charlie four. Marcelo Zuna, by the way, 38 homers, 100 RBI, 942 OPS, 33 years old. I thought he was a free agent,

but apparently the Braves have a $16 million option on him, so I assume he will be back in Atlanta. I would assume so. How many other... Like fantasy relevant, Utill only players will there be. Shohei, Rooker, Schwarber, Ozuna.

Ozuna. We're probably forgetting a few. I probably haven't discovered. Yeah. Because we had the whole conversation about Brett Rooker. Stanton. Yeah, I mean, finding out Rooker is going to be D.H. only next to it changes everything.

I presume he'll be faded pretty hard. just for that before you even factor in the weird profile. And last name on the list, Michael Harris. Seven. Oh. Yeah, I'm disinclined to disagree. I'll say seven. Having a pretty nice September here for Harris,

254, five homers, one steel, 774 OPS, a season marred by injury. Hopefully he and he and, the Atlanta Braves lineup can get back on track in 2020. I will be buying in 2024 or 2025. I don't think I've had Michael Harris on my team very often the past couple years, but I will absolutely buy the guy who's been an elite player in what should be an elite offense who's only 24.

I will absolutely be buying Michael Harris in 2025, especially if it's a seventh round pick. All right. That's it for round association. three hitters, all three hit home runs on Wednesday. They have had down second halves. Josh Naler, just slugging 396 in the second half. Brendan Nimmo just entire second half has been pretty bad.

190 batting average, 590 OPS, and Alec Boem, who has dealt with some injury here in the second half batting 271, which is still good, but only three homers, 736 OPS. So any lingering concerns, heading into next year with these bad second halves? I mean, I think in a lot of ways, Boehm and Naylor especially have just kind of regressed to

who they've always been. You know, Nailer did have an 842 OPS in 2023. That was a big outlier in terms of batting average. Before that, he had been pretty solidly in the 770 range. So I think, Boom and Nailer, it's mostly just they had really hot set first halves. Nimmo, you mentioned there was an injury, right? A shoulder maybe.

I didn't mention it, but yeah, I have it in the notes. And so I think that probably explains it because he's the one who's most behind his established norm. I do, can I point one other thing out on a player that we talked about the other day? We talked about Adley Rushman and how there must have been an injury that we didn't know about. And we brought up what that injury might have been. What did we think? Because I took a foul tip off his right hand at the end of June. I saw that.

Yeah, I saw that today. Which basically coincides with him falling off. Yeah, it was June 27th. I was just doing my catcher rankings. And that article will come out on 3rd. Thursday, top 20 catchers for 2025. Will Smith has had a horrible second half in addition to Rushman. Logan O'Hoppy's had a horrible second half.

Like it's, and I think there are a couple of others. Rushman's two for me. Yeah, he's two for me. And Will Smith is still four for me. And I won't give away any other rankings than that. But, but it's just, it struck me as odd. And maybe a lot of these guys are playing through injury. because I generally think they're all better than,

I generally all think they're closer to their first half selves than their second half selves. But then again, we saw the terrible second half for Sean Murphy last year. And the end can come really quickly for catchers. It's a tough position. He got hurt on opening day. Murphy did.

So I have him ranked pretty low, but I do think there's some bounce back potential for Murphy even. It's going to, it's, it's been a. disappointing position overall catcher, but but don't worry. Next year we're going to say this is the year

catcher's not terrible and this is the year we're right. Well, I mean, we were, it was kind of true in 2023. It was kind of true in the first half this year. Francisco Alvarez before the injury. Yeah, they're... Oh, he's been awful too. Yeah. Terrible, yeah. We'll probably at some point think that Salvador Perez is done

and then he'll just go on to hit 30 homers and he'll be fine. He has a lot. great in the second half. I think he's been fine actually. Okay. Yeah. Getting back to the rundown here, Josh Naylor,

Brandon Nimmo, and Alec Bohm, I just want to say real quick, I think Bohm is the one most likely to be overdrafted next year. Yeah. All right, I was trying to get to Salvador Perez,

but it's taking a little bit of time. He has a 780 OPS. He has 10 homers and 40 RBI in the second half. So RBI is still very good. Power is still pretty good. Yeah. Yeah. He seems fine.

Yeah. I have him ahead of Will Smith for next year. Okay, that's it. That's all I'm revealing. All right. Some pitching leftovers, holy Ryan Pepio. Up against the Red Sox, six innings, one run, 12 strikeouts, including an immaculate inning,

23 whiffs on 76 pitches. And that comes after a start where he threw two innings and 38 pitches. And there were reports that maybe they're monitoring his workload. I mean, they did. 76 pitches is not very many. He was amazing. My goodness. And Aaron Nola, a huge start at the Brewers.

Seven innings, one run, nine strikeouts, 14 whiffs on 97 pitches. Anything to add? Pepio and Aaron Nola? Not really. I mean, Pepio kind of feels like you're playing with fire by starting him, given that they're monitoring his workload. Obviously, you missed out on a great one here.

He does appear to line up for two starts the final week, but they could obviously ax that second. start. Yeah. If they, uh, if they're really looking to preserve his innings. So I would be reluctant to use Pepio even with the two starts and we know the deal with Aaron Nola by now. I don't think anybody was freaking out after his last two starts. I am leaning towards Ryan Pepio breakout in 2025. That's that's the way I'm leaning because the fastball is like you have to trust that the fastball actually gets maybe not that many whiffs, but yeah, a legit, legit whiff pitch. It seems like a freak pitch and the changeup was supposed to be a plus plus pitch for him too. So if he can combine both of

those in 2025 with fewer innings concerns, I think Ryan Pebia has some upside there. Some hitting leftovers, Carlos Correa, three for five with four RBI looking to get back in the mix here for the twins. Shohei Otani's chase for 50-50 continues, one for five with his 49th steel and Riley Green having a pretty big September after a rough August. This month, 290, 5 homers, 15 RBI, 963 OPS. And he has been part of this incredibly hot stretch for the Detroit Tigers who are now a half game out of a wild card spot. Some bullpen updates for the A's.

Mason Miller walked one but struck out one for his 27th save. He set a new A's rookie franchise record with that 27 saves on the season. For the Giants, Ryan Walker struck out one for his eighth save. For the Padres, Robert Suarez was unavailable. Tanner Scott got the final two outs for his 21st save. For the Red Sox, Kenley Janssen walked two but picked up his 27th save. I mentioned he's dealing with some shoulder soreness there. For the Tigers, Jason Foley and Tyler Holton were both unavailable.

Will Vest got the final two outs for his second save. For the Phillies, Carlos Estevez got the ninth inning with the game tied and immediately gave up a lead-off triple to Jackson Trio. Eventually wound up taking the loss. I pulled up his numbers in Philadelphia so far. I thought they were going to be terrible. It's like an ERA around two, even with this outing. I thought he was much worse for some reason.

Well, he started out rough, but then I think he went on a good run and then slipped up here and this one. But yeah, I mean, he's been there. He's been there one and only closer since being acquired. For the Rangers, Kirby Yates struck out two for his 30 first save, and he is entering free agency. Fascinated to see what happens with him. We'll be interesting.

Obviously, he is very deserving of a multi-year deal somewhere. I guess the fact that he did it in Texas, I wouldn't be opposed to him just going back there. But yeah, interesting for Kirby Yates. And then for the Yankees. Clay Holmes gave up a solo home run

in the eighth inning, took his 13th blown save of the season. Luke Weaver pitched a clean eighth and ninth, five innings across that, four strikeouts. He has looked dominant since being in that role. And then Ian Hamilton, in extra innings, wound up picking up his first save of the season.

To stream or not to stream on Thursday, we have. Kumar Rocker gets the Blue Jays, Clark Schmidt at the Mariners. Like both of those. And I don't know, maybe Cantillo faces the twins. Cabreras look good, but he faces the Dodgers. Corbin and Assad face him. each other. Rocker and Schmet are the only two. I agree and I agree also that they're particularly good ones as far as this segment is concerned. On Friday, James and Tyone faces the

nationals. Nick Martinez faces the pirates. Anybody else, Ben lively and Kyle Gibson face each other. I mean, Nick Martinez coming off a 56 and a half point week. Hey, you called it, man. Going against the pirates. Yeah, that's fine. I think Tyone is fine too. Yeah, he was a sleeper pitcher for me this week. I'd prefer Tyone actually to Martinez. Would you use either lively or Gibson?

Or no? I mean, you could do worse. If you're just looking to get as much volume as you can in your lineup, I think they're both fine for that. But probably not good choices

to preserve ratios. All right, we are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.