Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Corey Seager to the Rangers! Robbie Ray to the Mariners! - Emergency Podcast (11/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 29, 2021

Corey Seager just signed a 10-year deal with the Texas Rangers (1:05)! What does this mean for his Fantasy value? What kind of power should you expect? ... What does this mean for the Dodgers (9:35)? Will we finally see Gavin Lux earn a real opportunity? ... Robbie Ray also signed with the Mariners (12:00)? This is great for his value, right?  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott, Chris and Adam. To quote the great Scott White right before we started, this is a lot, all at once. He's not kidding. Welcome into another emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today, this time on Monday, November 29th. Frank Stamphill joined by the aforementioned Scott White with a few more massive signings in real-life baseball, and we'll talk about what it means for fantasy baseball, obviously. And let's start with Corey Seeger. Scott, the Texas Rangers are just dishing out money right now.

over $500 million in guaranteed contracts. And we're only, yeah, a couple of days in. It feels like we're a couple of days in. Corey Seger to the Rangers, 10-year, $325 million deal. 147 games for Corey Seeger since the start of 2020. So nearly a full season's worth of work. 306 batting average, 31 homers, a 926 OPS. That is a pretty damn good player.

You know what you're going to get. Strong batting average makes a ton of contact. Modest power, I would say. But even with Marcus Semyon and prospects on the way in Josh Young and Sam Huff, you're talking about a fairly significant downgrade in terms of lineup for Corey Seeger and a slight downgrade in terms of Park for left-handed power as well. So how are you handling this signing of Corey Seeger? That's a lot you just gave me right there, Frank.

It's a lot you just gave me. So, yeah, the Rangers are throwing a lot of money around this offseason. and it kind of makes you wonder why they traded Joey Gallo last year. You think they're, okay, they're going through this methodical rebuild. They're not going to have much use for Joey Gallo at the end of it. It seems like they'd be in a better spot to contend if they still had him. It makes you wonder, you know, what if they still had Lance Lynn? Of course, he needed to sign an extension with the White Sox after that trade to stick with them.

But was that a possibility for the Rangers? I don't know. They seem a little confused. And maybe they're thinking Corey Seeger and, well, not really Marcus Simeon. Maybe they're thinking more two or three years from now they'll be ready to contend and obviously still have those guys under contract. So it's a little confusing what the Rangers are trying to do. Let's start with that.

Corey Seeger. We think Corey Seeger's amazing, right? The people who invested in him last year might quibble at that. They might feel like they got burned a bit by Corey Seeger. They might look at that 2020 season when he put up MVP caliber numbers and think it's kind of an outlier. I guess kind of it is. But if you look at his expected stats last year, Corey Seger's 295 batting average, that's 96th percentile. 530 slug, that's 90th percentile.

You said modest power for Corey Seeger, Frank. I would dispute that. I do think he has the potential to hit 35 plus hundred. homers. He impacts the ball hard. He makes a lot of contact, like he said. He doesn't put it on the ground that much. A lot of line drives, which, of course, good for batting average.

Just a really strong hitter, like an elite hitter profile for Corey Seeger. That's, you know, it's obviously been nerfed by injuries last year. And, of course, the Tommy John surgery in a couple of years. before that. But the best is yet to come for him. And I still think that's the case even going to the Rangers. Yes, it appears to be a more pitcher-friendly park than Dodger Stadium. We don't have a ton of data on that yet because it hasn't been open that long.

And yes, it's in the pitcher-friendlyest division in baseball. So those same factors apply to Corey Seeger that applied to Marcus Semyon when we did the breakdown for him a couple days ago. But I do think Corey Seeger's skill set is more he's more equipped to withstand that the effects of moving to Texas.

I would rather seen him back with the Dodgers. Don't get me wrong. This might be enough for me to drop Seeger behind like Xander Bogart's in my rankings just because we have a clear idea what to expect from Bogarts.

But I still think Corey Seeger's ceiling is higher and I still think he deserves to be drafted like an elite short. stop, all of that. Not the best destination for him, but I don't think, kind of like we were saying for Kevin Gosman, I would have liked to see him go somewhere else, but I don't think this really is a major concern

when you're evaluating him for fantasy purposes. I would definitely push back on the 35 plus home runs when it comes to Corey Seeger. The only year that we've really seen him be on a pace like that was 2020, and of course that was a shortened season. He only played 52 of the 60 games then, and he also had an outlier 278 isolated power. So even last year he had 16 home runs at 95 games and that was.

That's a 25 home rate over 150. That was when he like didn't appear healthy, fresh off the injury. I mean, he had a monstrous September. He had nine home runs in September. Yeah, I still think the best is you have to come for Corey Seeger. And I think his power ceiling is considerable. Yeah, I mean, look, if you believe that, then yeah, then maybe he, he can gets a 35 home runs. I mean, he's had, he's dealt with a bunch of injuries. Uh,

he's only played 56% of his games since the start of 2018 for myriad reasons. Uh, so there's a lot that he's had to deal with in the past. I would argue maybe he's better for points leagues at this point, Scott. I mean, we know he's not going to give us any speed, but makes a lot of contact, walks a decent amount, just average 3.3 fantasy points per game that was tied for fifth at the shortstop position. Uh, so what, what do you think there? Better for points leagues at this point for Corey Seeger? I mean, you could make the argument

that anybody who isn't really a base dealer is better in points leagues. I don't know that he'll be drafted earlier among short stops in points leagues. And for what it's worth, I do think Marcus Simeon still going to get drafted ahead of Corey Seeker in part because he impacts

the stolen base category, in part because he's also eligible at second base. I do think that's still going to to happen. But expectations prior to the signing versus after the signing, I think they deserve to change more for Marcus Simeon. All right. I think that's fair. I was quickly pulling up Corey Seeger's Stackass page to see what his sprint speed is. Yeah, I talked about how maybe Semen runs a little bit more with the Rangers. They are aggressive on the base paths. Seeger's not going to run. I mean, maybe he gives you a handful of steals, but not, not anything crazy in terms of

that category. The early ADP for Corey Seeger, 67.8. So we're talking about 12-team leagues. That's a mid-sixth round pick. He's going just behind Francisco Lindor, just ahead of Javier Baez. Sometimes I feel like this NFBC ADP, like it's just

I feel like a Corey Seeger gets downgraded there because obviously you're trying to beat 100 teams as opposed to just 10. Yeah. So you need those stolen bases from your early round picks. So like, I don't That just seems ridiculous to take Corey Seeger after Francisco Lendor, at least for our typical audience. Yeah, I mean, it's the only ADP that we have as of now. So it's just a reference point at this point.

But yeah, look, we've kind of referenced him being a Freddie Freeman type bat. Like maybe that's his ultimate upside. That's the player he looked like in the short in 2020 season. And Freddie Freeman's a early second round pick more often than not. So if you think that we have not seen the best of Corey Seeger like Scott does, then you should be wanting to draft him at this cost. And maybe he can reach that ultimate ceiling once again. And clearly the Rangers think that.

They just give him $325 million. I mean, let's just talk about the contract for a second. Like, I understand this is the going rate for elite players. He's 27 years old. He's, you know, turns 28 in April. But like, I would not want my team to sign any player for 10 years, let alone a shortstop who is probably going to have to move off the position in the next, I don't know, three to four years, something like that.

So that's just from a pure baseball perspective. It doesn't seem like time. Yeah, and the people want, oh, what's Carlos Correa going to get paid now? And of course, we like Seeger more than Correa and fantasy. But, you know, Correa is considered like an elite defender as well. Yeah. But, you know, part of why Seeger got what he got and why Marcus Simeon got what they got, I think are because they went to the Rangers.

And that's what it took to coax them. for the Rangers to coax talent on their team because they don't have much else going for them. Even after shelling out over $500 million the past two days, the Rangers don't look like a playoff contender. No, no, they do not. I mean, that lineup is still pretty bad. Again, they're getting better.

They have some names that are coming up. I mean, the pitching staff is still abysmal. They do have some pitching prospects that are coming within the next couple of years. But you're right. Maybe in two years from now they're ready to compete. And at that point, Marcus Semyon will be, I think, 32 or 33 years old. So, it's three, four, three, four, yeah. Yeah, it's kind of head scratching what's going on there.

Look, if they want Joey Gallo back more than happy to give him back from the New York Yankees perspective. What does this mean from the Dodgers perspective, Scott? Trey Turner looks like he will be back to shortstop now. Maybe we finally see Gavin Locke's fully unleashed. What do you think in there with the Dodgers? Yeah, presumably. I mean, I was getting some pushback on Twitter for this, but I was surprised to see that. happened with Seeger.

I kind of feel like the Dodgers, maybe the one organization, maybe also put the Yankees in there, but the Dodgers especially, the one organization that can pretty much do whatever they want, like they have those kinds of resources. Yeah. So why would you let Seeger go? So, you know, I don't know, maybe this puts them in play for Carlos Correa, Trevor's story. I don't know. Obviously they got Trey Turner as a fail safe in case Seeger did go, and he's perfectly

capable of playing shortstop. He wants to play shortstop. Does this open up a spot for Gavin Lux? I mean, it does seem like they were motivated to get Lux in the lineup down the stretch last year to the point they were playing him in center field, even though it looked like he didn't belong there. So, yeah, maybe they're ready to turn over the job to him. I don't know that I'm particularly eager to draft Gavin Lux and fantasy because though he came back in mid-August, mostly September, when he played actually So the month of September Let's just start from there

He hit 360 with a 967 OPS Did Gavin Lucks Obviously those are good numbers Yeah but it's only 17 games Four extra base hits in those 17 games A lot of singles for Gavin Lucks And like Unless you're just like this amazing contact hitter

I'm not willing to put all my eggs into batting after basket, you know, that's going to be something to sustain you. And even if, even if that's what you are, you're David Fletcher, you're Nick Madrigal, right? You're not a major contributor in fantasy, even if you are that extreme contact guy who you can bank on a 300 batting average consistently. And it still remains to be seen if Gavin Lux can handle himself against left-handed pitching, something he has not been able to do to this point in his career. So, you know, if that's who he is, then, you know, a contact plus batting average contributor who maybe doesn't play against lefties, it's not that exciting,

but once upon a time, he was a top prospect who had plenty of power and speed potential back in his days in the minors. Let's continue in the American League West. Your reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Robbie Ray, and his tight pants are headed to the Mariners

on a five-year, $115 million deal, $5 million more than what Kevin Gosman got from the Blue Jays. I guarantee you that was by design. 2.84 ERA, 104 Whip, 248 strikeouts over 193 and a third inning's pitched for Robbie Ray this

past season and Scott finally something to be pretty excited about here. I actually love the park upgrade. I love the division change considering Robbie Ray has struggled with home runs in the past, even a little bit last year down the stretch struggled allowing home runs. But like Kevin Cosman, this

just comes down to how much you trust in what you saw from Robbie Ray this past season and Scott how much do you trust that? Yeah, I agree that's mostly what it comes down to, because let's break it down this way. Obviously, Robbie Ray, Toronto to Seattle, that's a venue upgrade. Seattle's one of the pitcher-friendly is parks and baseball. Toronto's more hitter-friendly, and also the division change.

A.L. East to A.O. West, it doesn't get better than that. Gosman going to Toronto from San Francisco, you know, obviously that's a park downgrade. I still ultimately think it comes down to where the control gains that we saw from Robbie Ray legitimate because that's what allowed him to access and maximize that that amazing bat missing ability

he's always shown was that it was actually in the strike zone enough to take advantage of it. He still allowed hard contact for the most part he still put the ball in the Airton did Robbie Ray. He managed to succeed in Toronto in spite

of that because that's how good he isn't missing bats. So going to Seattle, does it make for a softer landing if he just has this very this very slight regression?

Yeah, it does. I mean, you know, he's probably going to allow fewer home runs in Seattle than he would have in Toronto in that scenario. But home runs are less the concern for him than walks. Does he continue to throw a strike?

And if he does, we could potentially see even better numbers in 2021 or 22. Certainly, this makes me feel more confident about drafting Robbie Ray as a top 10 starting pitcher, but I was already inclined to do that. Yeah. Look, it just comes down to, like you said, him trusting his stuff. That's exactly what he did this year, throwing the ball in the zone he has. And I would say elite fastball, a really good slider, basically throws two pitchers. The velocity on that fastball was up this past season.

So I remember Chris talked about this a lot, where they told Robbie Ray, just aim for the middle of the zone, just aim for the middle and throw your stuff as hard as you can. And this was the result that we had. And obviously, you know, gave us the career best control from Robbie Ray as well. His ADP right now is 44.5.

Would you rather have Robbie Ray or Kevin Cosman? In fantasy? Yes. That's what all comes down to, right? Yeah, Robbie Ray. But I was, before knowing where they landed, I would have said that too. Okay.

Robbie Ray is actually going two spots just behind Chris Sale. What do you think about that one? Robbie Ray versus Sale. I'd rather have Ray. Okay. Yeah, I think that one's a little bit closer. Let's just wrap up here. We spoke about Max Scher on one of our emergency podcasts yesterday.

The deal is official now to the New York Mets. We have some numbers here, three years, $130 million, but then opt out after the second year. Can't really imagine Max Scher is going to opt out of $43 million when he's turning 40 or 41 years old, but hey, you never know. Scott, look, if Max Schurzer and Jacob DeGrom are healthy in the same rotation, that is just, that is insane and that is fun. I don't really think this changes much for fantasy, but any last remarks on Max Schrozer?

No, I mean, no, not really. I think he would be the same, whether he went to the Mets or the Moon, you know? That's what I said before, and that's what I'm sticking with. Is DeGrom healthy? obviously based on early draft results. People are skeptical that he is. Otherwise, he'd obviously be the top pitcher drafted. So I don't know that the Scherzer signing should make us more optimistic

and De Grom's outlook necessarily. But obviously, that's a great one-two-punch. It's a great one-to-punch. Last year, the Dodgers were going into the season with Walker Bueller, Clayton Kirshan, Trevor Bauer, and that didn't turn out so well. But on paper, it sounds awesome. Yeah, it's kind of a rough go at it right now

for the Los Angeles Dodgers, right? Losing Corey Seeger, losing Max Scherzer, they still have a wealth of talent. There's no doubt about that. Wouldn't be surprised if they, you know, jump back into the market here and try and figure some things out, whether it's at shortstop,

bring in some pitchers, maybe bringing Clayton Kirschaw back, but they did not extend the qualifying offer to him. So we'll see what happens there with the Los Angeles Dodgers. We're going to wrap up for Scott. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening

and watching this emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today. I don't think that we're going to have another emergency podcast before our normal Tuesday podcast comes out. But if not, we will see you then. Bye-bye.