Fantasy Baseball Today - Deciphering the 60-Game Season with Mike Kurland! (11/03 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 3, 2020

Scott White is getting a much deserved rest this week but Frank Stampfl is joined by Sleepy K Mike Kurland to try and figure out the 60-game season! First off, we hit on the latest news and notes with many relevant players having their options declined (6:36). With Brad Hand out, who will close in Cleveland? Does Corey Kluber have anything left in the tank? ... Which players were given the qualifying offer for 2021 (16:28)? Good job, Kevin Gausman! ... So what was real and what wasn't in 2020 (19:40)? Are we giving a pass to Christian Yelich, Gleyber Torres, Javier Baez, and Austin Meadows? ... Mike explains why he's buying back in on Ketel Marte (35:50) for 2021. Marte or Jose Altuve? ... Which players are we actually worried about given their 2020 production (40:15)? Should you skip out on Keston Hiura next season? ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

What was real and what wasn't in 2020? Welcome to a very philosophical edition of Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, November 3rd. Frank Stamphle here. All alone. No Scott White, no Chris Towers, no Adam Azer. They've all abandoned me. I feel like the John Travolta gift where he's looking around in Pulp Fiction?

Like, where is everybody? I'm all alone. J.K., I'm not alone. But none of those usual suspects are here today. Scott is an Iron Man. I don't think he missed a single podcast throughout the season, so I hope he's enjoying his week off,

which brings us to our special guest. Obviously, today is a very special day, one that will change the course of history. I knew I needed somebody to match the magnitude of this day. So I dove deep into the depths of fantasy baseball Twitter and found just the man, the host of the Bases Loaded podcast, contributor at Roto Baller,

aka Sleepy K, which we're going to get into. I don't know what this is all about. It is Mike Kerlin. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at Mike underscore Kerlin. K-U-R-L-A-N-D. What's going on, man? Dude, that intro, I got to give it to you, man. From one host to another,

there's a reason why you're doing the big-time gig, and I'm over here with the startup. Oh, stop. You said, dude, that intro was awesome. I appreciate it. And I'm happy to be here, man. I mentioned it a little bit all fair. I'll be honest about that.

This is like one of those big time moments for me. I can't thank you enough for having me, man. This is awesome. Yeah, we did talk about that a little bit before the show. And, I mean, let's just be honest with our listeners and our viewers a little bit here. It was a surreal moment for me joining the podcast as the host here. And I appreciate everyone that has reached out throughout the season and after the season. and that has enjoyed fantasy baseball today with me as the host.

Obviously, Adam has done a fantastic job for the past decade or so, and everyone has that's contributed. Scott White, obviously, and Chris Towers and anyone else who's come along with Nando Defino and Al Melchior as well. But, I mean, this was really a surreal gig for me to land because I grew up listening to this podcast. This was like the first fantasy baseball podcast that I ever listened to. And it started, I started listening back in like 2010 when I was going to college and stuff.

So it is surreal, and we spoke about that before the podcast. So look, that's just one of the, I assume many things that we share, that we basically grew up listening to the podcast. And look at us. Look at us, Mike. Now we're here. We're here. Ma, I made it.

That's a song, right? There's a song reference. Ah, there you go. You made it, man. Adam's not here, though. He was saying it for us. He probably would have. He's more of the singer than I am for sure.

So I don't dabble too much into the singing. But today on the show, we do have some news to catch you. up on options that were declined and players who were extended the qualifying offer, which is $18.9 million for the 2021 season. Try and figure out what was real and what wasn't for the abbreviated 2020 season. No, it's not just a bit. This isn't an actual philosophical episode of FBT. We're going to look at some players who struggled mightily this season. What was, you know, are we actually worried about any of these guys? I mean, a lot of these guys we've seen perform in the past. So we'll talk about some of those players. And then we have a few of your questions

to answer later on in the show before we do all that. Mike, are you a big Halloween guy? We just passed Halloween weekend. It seems like everybody who I've had on, we had on Nick Pollock last week, and Scott, not a big Halloween guy. Are you a big Halloween guy? I need somebody.

Help me out here. Yeah, I'm not going to be that guy for you. My wife is a huge Halloween person. My kids love. I have kids. I have three. So, of course, we celebrate it. We do it upright for them.

But I'm not the one that gets dressed up. I'm the one holding the sacks of candy and but this year I worked. So this year I wasn't even there for it. I was on shift. I was on shift because I'm a firefight paramedic full time. And then this is like a second job slash pretty much like a full time job. It feels like some times.

But yeah. So I was on shift that night and got a call that was Halloween like, but I won't go into that. That's a whole other discussion. Yeah, right. Why did they call you Sleepy K? I noticed this in your Twitter description. And I honestly don't know the story behind it. All right.

This started. I got the nickname. I think just before that little, I guess that league that never really took off that you and I kind of have really started talking more through. And long story short, I fell asleep podcasting, which is crazy to think because anybody who knows me, and for those who might be obviously new listeners,

never hearing me before, I talk a lot. I'm really good at talking. I don't, but this was before I was doing video podcast and like all the other stuff that's kind of evolved over the last year. So in the fantasy baseball side of things. And it was one of my, it wasn't like a, I didn't have a special guest host. I wasn't doing a guest spot.

I was hosting with one of my good friends, George. He's one of the co-hosts on the Beas-loaded podcast. And I'll paint the picture. It's like 1.1.30 in the morning Eastern Time. And he's West Coast. So I always do. I stay up late with him. And we were talking about J.P. Crawford.

I won't forget it because it bored me. We were talking about J.P. Crawford at like 1.30 in the morning on a podcast. And I just fell asleep on them. There was, again, there was no video. And I used a podcast on my couch before I set up my little setup in this corner here. So one thing led to another. I leaned back into my couch chair. and my mic was on a arm, so I moved it back with me.

One thing led to another, and I'm like, sleeping for like 15, 20 seconds, woke myself up because I realized he stopped talking. Like I caught onto it. And yeah, he put it out there. And then Ralph Lipschitz, I was in a podcast league with him, like a redraft league. And he loves his 90s rap, I guess. And he called me Sleepy K because he thought it was like a cool rap name, like a 90s rap name. And I just kind of ran with it, man.

I mean, I've been called way worse. I'm sure all of us have been called way worse on our life. lives. So this was like, I'm like, cool, I'll take a nickname. And it actually does have fantasy appeal because you can play off the word sleepy and all that. But yeah, I kept it in his trip because I fell asleep on a podcast. I, that is, as somebody who knows what it's like to podcast at 1 o'clock in the morning, as Scott and I did throughout the regular season, I understand like, dude, some late nights that you have to deal with for sure. So Scott's usually drinking his sodas. And if you listen to the podcast throughout the season, you know, we get late night Scott

white sometimes and it gets a little wacky here on the show. But yeah, dude, I can definitely appreciate that. I know what you're talking about when it comes to podcasting pretty late. All right, let's get into some of these news and notes, things that are happening around the league. We haven't talked about this in a while. We did some of our early position previews for this 2021 season. You can go back and listen to those on demand. These players had their options declined and are now free agents. And for what it's worth, in my opinion, I think we're in for a very slow moving off season, which of course comes to no surprise. Buckle up. There are a ton of names here, and I will talk a little bit more about a few of them in depth. Corey Klobber, Colton Wong,

Charlie Morton, Howie Kendrick, Adam Eaton, Eric Thames, Jay Hap, Brett Gardner, Ryan Braun, Brennan Kinsler, Wilson Ramos, Mitch Morland, Chris Archer, John Lester, Roberto Osuna, Carlos, Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion, Sergio Romo, and perhaps the most surprising of all, Brad Hand, who just led baseball with 16 saves. So I understand there are a lot of names to remember there. Write them down, go back, listen 20 seconds ago, write them all down and see what happened.

But I just want to mention Brad Hand, I mean, from the get-go here, Mike, it was a bounce-back season for Hand, a 205 ERA, 0.77 whip. But buyer beware a little bit for, matter where he lands or if you plan on drafting him as a closer in fantasy, fastball velocity went from 92.7 miles per hour in 2019 to 91.4 miles per hour in 2020. Swinging strike rate went from 13% to 10.5% in 2020. And it had a 57% fly ball rate. Again, this was all Brad Hand. So on the surface, numbers look pretty good. Okay, you'll dig a little bit

deeper. Doesn't look so good for Brad Hand, Mike. Exactly. And I was kind of fading him. I I was wrong on Brad Hand in 2020. I want to be very clear because I was fading him on the off chance of this kind of happening last year, as in maybe not being cut, but I expected him to be traded. So I was surprised they didn't pick up the option to try to move them. But I guess they didn't. It's so weird, man.

They've had this team that's like somewhat competitive and could have been had they spent. They keep crying poor, making sure, I have such a hard time with the Indians understanding what they're doing. But yeah, you mentioned, I think the biggest thing for me really is that dropping, and that drop in VLO.

And that is always something to be concerned about, especially with a relief pitcher where you see a lot of these guys probably increased their velocity knowing that they didn't have to throw as much this year as a whole. So that's something to be to be aware of. And then of course you mentioned the five ball rate increasing. Where does he land? And does he get a job?

You think it's going to be slow? I'm kind of torn because we saw it kind of come quick and fast last year. And I'm wondering how much these players have in mind that 2022 potential lockout coming because, you know, I hate to bring that up because it's, you know, doom and gloom as it is with 2021 kind of, we assume it's going to be a full year, but we're not sure yet because coronavirus, it's spiking again, but again, a whole other discussion.

We don't really know what's going to happen in 2022. Do players just say, you know what? Give me two years. Give me one guaranteed year. Like, you have, a lot of these guys are older, too. So a lot of these guys might just take a one year deal and retire. Charlie Morton being like the big name here on this list. He's a guy that's just another one that stands out as,

I'm surprised the raise and just take him back because he's willing to pitch one more year. And I think it was a pretty team-friendly contract. but he should probably get signed for a pretty solid, you know, pretty favorable deal, but he's a guy that I think he signs faster because I think it's known it's more of a year to year thing with him at, and the next year might be his last anyway. So someone like him versus Colton Wong,

still, I think entering his age 30 season. So he might want a longer deal. So he might sit out long. So you kind of have to play that guessing game. And it's unfortunate, but I know I jumped around from like one guy to another, but hand again, just I got to see where he lands. I'm definitely avoiding him in any early draft.

until we figure out where he's going. Yeah, and I have a Yankees group chat. Everyone knows by now. I am a Yankee fan. And these guys are saying, like, let's go get Brad Hand. I guess it would be all right for the Yankees, but I mean, it would be terrible for his fantasy value. So I don't think many people are drafting this time of year

and we'll have a lot of time to figure things out once he signs somewhere. But my guess is he's not going to be back in Cleveland. So, Mike, your early hunch, who closes in Cleveland? Is it wild thing? James Carinjack? Is that where we're going? I tweeted that out last week, and some people responded. Emmanuel Class A, he's going to get his opportunity. Who is the prospect that they got in return in the Corey Kluber trade, of course?

So Class A, someone who throws extremely hard, missed all of the 2020 season due to a suspension, and he was hurt before that anyway, dealing with a back and a lat injury as well. So your early hunch here on November 3rd, 2020, Karen Chacker Class A. I'm going to have to go with Karen Chack. And we saw him get utilized in pretty high leverage situations as it was last year. I'm trying to find his hold numbers. I think he had, yeah, he had eight holds last year. So unfortunately, I came with three bone saves.

But he had eight holds showing a willingness to put him in those high leverage situations. And that's where I'm banking on with, again, nothing else being known as of right now. Class A, not saying he can't get it. I'm just, he hasn't done it. And he hasn't done it for this team. He hasn't even pitched for this team. So I want to see him be healthy. I want to see him be even given an opportunity

to pitch in these situations, whereas we've seen Crenchak at least be given opportunities to pitch in said situations. So that's where I'm at. Yeah, Karen, check, a 17.7K per 9 this season, but 5.3 walks per night. Like, he is absolutely filthy. You watch him pitch.

2.67 ERA, 1.11 whip. All the underlying numbers are all right there with him as well. A 16.9% swinging strike rate. that was 53 strikeouts in 27 innings pitched, but also did so with 16 walks. So a little bit wild at times. He's got the whole wild thing going on in Cleveland. My early lean is that he will probably be the closer as well for Cleveland.

And, you know, if he is, he has the opportunity to be top five at the position. I don't think that that is crazy. He really just has to work on getting those walks down. Again, that is James Caroncheck. A few more names here. Roberto Osuna was expected to miss most of the 2021 season anyway, so that doesn't really come as a surprise. I assume Ryan Presley will be the man again next season for the Houston Astros.

Mike, do you think Cory Kluber has anything left? His early ADP in these two early mock drafts set up by Justin Mason was like 250. So, I mean, that is extremely late. It's probably going to correct itself a little bit, but the name pops out. Corey Klober. I mean, that's pretty damn late. Any interest? Is Corey, are we sure Corey Klober is better than Madbum?

at this point though. I can't tell you. Well, that's the problem. And that's, that's where the issue is is, is I think he still is. I think he has better stuff still.

But we haven't really seen on pitch since like 20, what, 18. So like part of 2019, I know, but like, like, and then you look at who's around them.

And I guess as long as the price is there, I'm good with it because I was looking at these, like you said, the tourly mocks. I was looking at the ADP. And Justice Sheffield is criminally overlooked. So he's like one name. James and Tyone.

I think I know he has a team. he should be healthy. I'm willing to take a shot on him. But then he gets to a lot of murkier guys. Like Michael Kopeck, we know he has a team, but he didn't pitch last year. How much did he really keep up with his conditioning?

How many endings are we going to see from Thor coming off, you know, injury, so he's in that, he's in that right area to take a shot. But we just don't know where he signs. If he signs, you got to think he gets a one-year deal probably. But there's a lot to be to turn with him. As of right now, the price is good, though.

It's a long way with me saying the price is good where he's at. Jameson Tyone, a name that you bring up there. And I'm just, I'm getting, I'm getting giddy about Jameson Tion and he will be, I think, so he had Tommy John in 2019, I believe it was in either July or August. So he will have been removed from Tommy John for like 21 or 22 months.

Oh, he's healthy. By the time spring train. Like he was already throwing bullpins back in September. So James and Tionin should be good. I don't know what the endings look like and we'll talk about it a little bit, but I don't know what the endings look like for any pitcher next year. So, I mean, if you're going to get James and Tion super late,

I say, okay, just take the shot on talent and hope that he's not on any type of crazy restriction. But a name that just very early on, I'm paying attention to and getting excited about. No Edwin Incarnation for the Chicago White Sox, which means we could see their top prospect, Andrew Vaughn, probably not at the start of the season, but sooner rather than later,

I think the White Sox all along knowing when they drafted him that they expect him to contribute in the short term and obviously in the long term as well, but like a lot to like with Andrew Vaughn. And Anthony Rizzo, a Paul Goldschmidt type hitting prospect at first base for the White Sox. He'll either play first base or DH for them when he gets to call. But really good play discipline. It's a lot of line drives. I think in his prime could be a 280 plus hitter, 30 home runs. Again, this is Andrew Vaughn,

so I don't know when we'll see him, but this could open up the path for him sooner rather than later with no Edwin Incarnation. The players that are remaining on their teams because of options that were either picked up by themselves or by the teams that they are on, Nick Castellanos will remain with the Cincinnati Reds,

Rizzo with the Cubs, John Carlo Stanton, Ger. Oh, wait, I have this. John Carlo No see poor Stopparlo Whatever that means And Zach Britton Will remain with the Yankees

J.D. Martinez is with the Red Sox still And Starling Marte You mentioned Had his 12 and a half million dollar option picked up by the Miami Marlins This group received the qualifying offer

Which of course is a one year $18.9 million deal Trevor Bauer George Springer D.J. LeMayhew J.C. Rillamuto Marcus Stroman and Kevin

Gossman. Great job by Kevin Gosman. Like, rebuilding his value. And most people will look at this mic and say, oh, well, it's a no-brainer. Gossman is going to take this qualifying offer. I think there's a chance that he can actually get a multi-year deal where, I mean, if he wants to set himself up financially, like with some security for a while, now might be the best time to do it. Coming off a season 3.62 ERA, 1.11 whip, 79 strikeouts in 59 and 233. its endings pitched. If he qualified, his 15.2% swinging strike rate would have ranked seventh

among starting pitchers just ahead of you, Darvish, Max Scherzer, and Denelson Lamette. It's a pretty damn good company for Kevin Gosman, Mike. Yeah, and I'm so torn on this because we know he has the two pitches, and the Splitter being the kind of the pitch that brought him out of the woodworks last year even. I think it was a 2019 came out of relief and showed that potential, the strike rate increasing and all that. And then brought it into this year and really showed us that he could still do it. And he's like the perfect analytics type of guy. He can go five innings strong, it seems like.

I feel like, you know, pushing him six innings without that third pitch is iffy. But he, like you said, it was a great job to get this offer. And I don't know because how multi-year deal would even get this much? That's why I'm at. Like, I think, I think if he was a free agent, this would have been like a two-year, $18.9 million offer to him. You know what I mean? Like, I don't think he would have gotten this on one-year deal.

So I think this was smart by the Giants, though, because I have yet, you know, I've learned to not question how they run their team. And I think they're thinking is either they're going to compete because, you know, they seem to always somehow compete and be scrappy. But if not, they're willing to eat some money knowing that they'll probably be able to flip them for some prospects. Right. And that's the right thing to do. Eat some of that cash because they're a lower team on the payroll anyway. If I'm, I mean, I can't envision much money being on the books next year. So that's, I think it was a smart move.

Everyone's saying good job, Galsman, but I think it was a really good play by the Giants. Yeah, no, that is a fair point as well. Marcus Stroman, I mentioned he might actually take this qualifying offer and try and reestablish some of his value. I believe this is age 30 seasons, so he can go back into free agency at 31 years old, which isn't terrible, get a multi-year deal.

We'll see what happens with Marcus Strowman as well. We had a few managers hired 76-year-old Tony Larusa. This is interesting to say the least. joins the Chicago White Sox, and A.J. Hinch, you might have heard of the fellow, is headed to the Detroit Tigers. Say what you want about the cheating scandal, but he did help the Houston Astros turn things around and obviously has a stable of young pitchers with the Tigers, Casey Mize and Terrick Scouble, and Matt Manning is coming, and of course they have Spencer Torkelson.

So it's not a terrible job to have right now, the Detroit Tigers. It's somewhat interesting, actually. So AJ Hintz is headed there, and the Red Sox job remains vacant. All right, so what was real and what wasn't in the 2020 season? Basically a 28-minute introduction to the show, so there you go. I wrote an article about it recently on CBSports.com, and my first and main point is that we have had really good players in the past, have two months slumps.

And the most recent examples, you just look at 2019. In the first 60 games of the season, Jose Ramirez had a 617 OPS. U. Darvish had a 5.02 ERA. In the final 60 games of the season in 2019, Mani Machado had a 687 OPS, and Luis Castillo had a 5.08 ERA. So just imagine if we had to draft for 2020 knowing only those things about those players.

If we knew, okay, Jose Ramirez had a sub-700 OPS, same thing as Mani Machado. You would have got those players at extreme discounts heading into the 2020 season, and that's basically what we're dealing with heading into the 2021 season with players who I kind of think are known commodities at this point. So let's talk about a few of these guys. Don't want to spend too much time on this player.

But Christian Yelich, my concern here, Mike, is just the lineup that he's in and that he does not have a lot of protection. Maybe Lorenzo Kane being back in the lineup, he's not going to offer protection, but at the top of the lineup, you know, someone that, okay, he has a, legitimate on base skills and, you know, that can help someone like Yelich, but we'll talk about Hira in a little bit, worried that, like, outside of that, like, there's not a lot in the Brewers lineup, a career high near 31% strikeout rate for Yelich. He was way less aggressive than ever before. He had a 671 OPS against right-handed pitching, which is just super weird. That's

895 for his career. Do you have any concern over Christian Yelich, Mike? Other than, like you mentioned, I think the big concern is to see how the Brewers, pack this off season and see if they can get some, just some supporting cast, even like respectable names. Like at least he had Mastakis in 2019 and I'm trying to remember. And then you mentioned Kane was there as well. So he had some cushion. But even with a spike in strikeout, right, which again, you're talking about a guy who's what, struck out more than 20% of the time once since 2013. So I don't buy that this is who he is. Stragut right wise. I think there's a lot of passivity there. Like you mentioned the walk rate being a crazy career high. But even with that,

The Babbitt was also career low, and he still managed to be an above average player with a WRC plus of 112. So he gave you the, and he gave you the four steals, the 12-home runs. He gave you that threat. And I think there's nothing but up with the batting average. So yes, there's reason to be a little concerned, but he's still first rounder for me. And I know he's 80P, and you actually have it here, roughly 11th. You give me a back end of the first round pick. I'm taking him 10 times out of 10.

I'm not concerned. I think the health is there. And what if he's another guy that I swear I've heard of it, I've heard of it, maybe not that he was one of those that actually watched tape in game and he didn't have the access to that tape. I know J.D. Martinez has mentioned that a lot, like I'm not having a lot of his in-game stuff. So maybe he's one of those players that just everything was thrown off. You just, there's a lot of that players saw pictures they never saw before.

Hitters, a picture saw hitters they never saw before. Ups and downs because of that because of schedule and the division. So I'm willing to let that be a pass. And I'm going to look at this as a, uh, as a, value pick. And I do think there is some upside for the lineup to turn around. Like if Luis Arias gets a full season with the Brewers, you know, once a top prospect, I think obviously that can help their team. I'm looking at Avicel Garcia right now to see if he is still, he is signed with the team throughout 2021. So he's another name where if he can bounce back, I mean, that can

offer a little bit of protection. They have some guys that can be better here in this Brewers lineup. So that's the only thing that I'm worried about. But I think once upon a time, we said that about Freddie Freeman a couple years ago when the Braves were going through rebuild. We're a little bit worried. All right, what's going to happen with Freddie Freeman? He was still awesome. I had that slight concern over Juan Soto heading into this season. No concern there.

That wasn't an issue either. So maybe I'm just making something out of nothing. I've got to read more about Yelich in the offseason and see what the brewers do here. But just pay attention. I got to, just ever so slightly worried about Christian Yelich. Another name, Glaber Torres. This is a very interesting one. He hit 243 in 2020, three homers, 17 runs, 16 RBI,

one steal in 42 games. He dealt with quad and I believe those hamstring injuries for a decent portion of the season. He was playing through those injuries. So it could be as simple as that. And, you know, in his age 21 season, an 820 OPS, in his age 22 season, an 871 OPS, and in this year, 724.

So it was all over the place this season. And Mike, what are you thinking about Glaber Torres? Early ADP is at 63.9 where, you know, last year he was the top 30 picks. So we could have a potential profit situation here with Glaber Torres. Yeah, I love, first off, I'm huge on like people who show this type of plate discipline. So I love seeing that. But again, I don't like, but this is one of those situations. I don't like seeing it because I think it's one of those that affected him negatively.

And we did see him, you know, he struck out a little more in the playoffs. He still walked a ton. but he showed a little more pop and he actually stole a couple bases so maybe he came back around for the playoffs maybe started figuring things out. Also, the lineup was healthier back by the playoffs,

the time the playoffs came around. So if LeMayhu doesn't return, which I don't see why the Yankees wouldn't pay LeMayhew, but if he doesn't, maybe Torres finds his way back up the lineup as well. So there's some, there's optimism there.

I also think he was never going to repeat what he did in 2019, but I don't think he was this bad either. So I think there's a happy medium. I think at his price, it makes sense. but he played 40 games at shortstop, none at second. So I don't think he has second base eligibility in most formats entering next year. So the price is surprising because although I think he's better than a Krea type or Kraya as a whole,

I don't think he's 60 picks better than Kray at this point. Like, because I think the skillsets are so similar that again goes back to I'm actually very similar to you. I'm looking for, I'm looking for discounts. I'm looking for potential return on investment. And I think Krea is a similar enough product here or a potential product that, But again, it doesn't warrant a 60-pick difference. So the price still might be a little, I haven't quite gotten there in my ranks either yet.

So I'm not sure how I feel about that middle area. I can understand Torres' appeal there. But is it because he's still flash your name than Karea? That's kind of where I'm at. Like, I'm looking at their skill sets. I'm not seeing much difference, although I do agree Torres has the higher ceiling. I just don't know if the floor or the mean outcome is all that different.

Yeah, and Glaber is, like, he's younger than Karea for sure. So I think people still kind of see that upside. Lake Labor hasn't reached the ceiling. I think you're paying a bit of a Yankee tax here. Dansby Swanson in this early ADP is going 40 picks later, and I like Danes Bondswantz a lot. You can argue the Braves lineup is just as good as the Yankees, if not better.

We'll see what that happens with Marcel Ozuna, but a little bit of pop, a little bit of speed from Danesby Swanson as well, and going 40 picks later than Glaber Torres. You mentioned what he changed in terms of his plate discipline this season. It was really weird because he walked a career high 13, and struck out a career best 17.5%. But he was way less aggressive than he usually is. His chase rate was down 10%.

His swing percentage was down 10%. So we have to get the aggressive Glaber Torres back. Like, yes, we like plate discipline, but to an extent, do not change the player you are, especially when the player you were, Glaver, was very successful. So if that makes sense, like, just go back to being who you were, Glabert Torres, and I think you can get back to being like a 270 hitter with 30 home runs,

you know, five to ten steals in a really good Yankee lineup. So we'll see what happens with Glabertore as well. He's like in this no man's land in terms of ADP. He's 15 picks after Tim Anderson. He's 17 picks before Javier Baez. And I wanted to kind of transition here into Javier Baez. somebody who, Mike, is very frustrating for me because for years, I was off of Javier Baez,

and I said there's no way he can continue to produce this way with this lack of plate discipline and swinging and missing this much and walking this little. Last year was the year I finally bought into Javier Baez, and I had him everywhere, Mike. And he went on to hit 203 with a sub-600 OPS. so he was just, but it was a nightmare season. Like this was literally like one of the lowest percentile outcomes for Javier Baez on the, you know, terrible end.

So I just can't imagine him being this bad again. My thing about Baez is that, and I've always been with you actually. And I honestly skipped on him this year as well. And I got, again, I got lucky on this one because I've been wrong for so long. But he's the type of guy that I told you plate discipline is kind of a thing I really look at. And he's always been somebody I've been like fading. But what's always been a reason why he's always been able to outproduce some of it was, you know, his sprint speed is like he always had a plus speed tool, which he still does. But his sprint speed almost fell off a full foot per second, like from 28.6 and 2019 to 27.9 feet per second.

So Harvey Baez kind of lost his step, so to speak. And he also suddenly tried pulling the ball more. I think he was just maybe pushing a little too hard. But it's weird because he actually wasn't as aggressive as he usually is. his O swing dropped for three and a half percent roughly his swing but so he's chased less and just all right he swung less but then he had more swing and miss in his game because then swing strike rate went up so he wasn't as aggressive but then he swung and missed more so that's just a terrible combination and then his first pitch swing percentage which is something

that people I've come to look at a lot more because you see it's 48.2 percent 46.5 percent and last year he dropped the 39.1 percent so he wasn't even jumping on the first pitch strikes or first pitches as a whole. Maybe players or maybe pitchers have adapted to stop throwing him strikes so much so much so early on. So there is something going on there. You got to see how he adapts. I think a full off season can really help this whole Cubs team. And then I mean, if you want a little bit of optimism, look how well, look how much he underperformed against, you know, off speed. He had a batting average of 181 with the XBA of 315 against off speed. I mean, the breaking pitches and he overproduced against fastballs a little bit. So maybe there's

some, you know, give and take there. But overall, the discounts there. And I think I wanted to, I'm to get a few shares of them in terms of, you know, I'm going to make sure I roster them on a few teams, just on the off, I mean, I don't know, I have a hard time fading him. He's 27 years old. I don't think he's done by any means yet. So I'll take the discount on a couple of teams, but man, do some of the stuff just scare you for sure? And that's the gist of all this is that for the players that I've talked about thus far, Yelich, Glaber, to an extent, and Javier Baez, like we have a track record of all of those players being very successful. So to an extent, I am willing to give these players passes

because it was just an abbreviated 60 game season. For Baez, you don't go from an 881 OPS to 847 to 599. Like that doesn't just, you know, you don't just fall off that fast, even with the plate discipline that he has.

So, yes, it was a letdown. He was incredibly unlucky in terms of his babbip, a 262 babbip in 2020. That's 333 for his career. So his early ADP is 81.1.1. that puts him in the seventh round. This was a guy that was consistently going in the third, fourth round the past couple of seasons.

So there could be a buying opportunity for Javier Baez as well. Mike, someone who I'm going to be in on, and there is no real statistical basis for me to lean on here. It's just a player that I trust the talent, and that is Austin Meadows, who will be 25 years old at the start of the 2021 season. Think of this timeline for Austin Meadows. He missed the first couple of weeks of the season with COVID.

And then once he returned, he was dealing with an oblique strain, which shut him down in September. So, I mean, you put all those things together. And yes, his strikeouts went up and his batter ball data was all over the place. Like, he hit way too many fly balls this year. But I'm kind of just giving Austin Meadows a pass. Again, 25 years old, and in his last 162 games, has hit 269 with 33 home runs and 12 steals.

So I am, I will be. be back in on Austin Meadows next year. That's just the point of this conversation. And I'm going to give him a shot as well. Again, I'm not somebody I'm going to maybe actively pursue because of the rays or the rays. And now with or as Rainia's ascension, to find more reasons to kind of platoon meadows until he gets his stuff together. I think a lot of it was the COVID slash injuries, though. And the big thing that kind of made me look into him a little bit was there was, again, a small change in his stance. He was a little more upright. And then you look at the launch angle, it spiked almost eight degrees. And with it just comes so much

like a change in the production. You saw the barrel rate decrease. You saw him get under the ball more. And that makes sense because if you increase your launch angle, you're going to probably pop up the ball more. His pop up rate jump 3%. The under percent, the under percentage, which is, again, just another measure of getting under the ball, 15 percent increase. That's huge. And that explains a, that could explain a lot of his troubles. I think, and if you look at his launch average, long change goals over the first two years, 13.7% and 13.7 degrees and 16.7

degrees. That's where I would expect him to revert to and with it should come to better quality of the abats as well with the sweet spot percentage correcting the barrel rate probably correcting along with it. So I'm with you. I'm willing to give him a pass with all that going on in this crazy year.

And then the Ray is messing with playing time and all the other stuff in the playoffs. It's hard to really judge Meadows fully. Yeah, and he was sitting against lefties in the postseason, I didn't really understand completely because he's actually been adequate against lefties in his career. 798 OPS against lefties, 878 against righties. So, I mean, that's, look, normally if you're 750 or better as a left-handed batter, I consider that a win, and that's where Austin Meadows has been at.

All right, we're going to take a quick break when we return. Mike is going to tell you why you should be buying back in on Catelle-Marte, maybe why we should give him a pass this season. and just want to remind everyone that all of our Fantasy Baseball Today podcast are also on YouTube. So if you want to see what Sleepy K and all of our other guests look like, that's YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. And be sure to join our Facebook group as well where our listeners are posting their offseason questions. They talk about keepers, dynasty value.

Plus it's a way to find other serious leagues, if that is what you were looking for. The link for that is Facebook.com slash groups slash fantasy baseball today. and you can find both the YouTube and Facebook links in our episode description. We'll take a break. When we come back, Catelle Marte here, Fantasy Baseball today. Cotel Marte will be just 27 years old when the 2021 season starts and has just second base eligibility at this point. I asked Mike before the podcast,

do you have anyone you want to talk about, any players that you feel passionate about, guys that you think might be able to bounce back? And he said, Citele today. So now is your opportunity, Mike, to tell us why you like a lot. a gentleman who just hit for two home runs in 45 games in the 2020 season. Okay. This is where I get to defend my love for Kutel because I know the numbers aren't in his favor

and everyone's going to look at 2019 being the big juice ball year, which it was, but there was a lot more that went into it as well. You know, he was more of a pull ball hitter, he increased the long jangle. There was a lot of stuff that went with him. And again, he has such a good hit tool being that he's a guy that never strikes out. Usually walks better. He walked really bad for a low amount this year. just a guy that really put emphasis on getting the ball in the air more,

and it worked for him. And this year, the average long angle was still at 10 degrees. So it wasn't a long angle issue. So then Mike, what happened? I think it was just that wrist. I think because he was dealing with left wrist inflammation. I think he was playing through it. He eventually went out and got, you know, got rested or got some rest and all that.

But you try to be a switch hitter with wrist issues. Look at Ozia obis. He struggled mightily. I think he had a wrist issue as well, went out, came back, and tore up the ball for the remainder of his time during that season. And that's why he's not really being affected in drafts. I think Marte would have corrected, you know, would have righted the ship had he had a chance to.

And it's just another guy I'm willing to chalk up to injury being a big issue. And if people were worried about the power production, I was really clear when I was being on him coming into 2020, I never thought he'd be a 30 home run hitter again. I always pegged him around 25 home runs. And if, and we've come to learn. And I know there was a good article by, um, I'm thinking of his, of his Twitter handle right now for some reason, Dolph Hawkehaggy,

oh man, Alex Chamberlain, yep. Yes, yeah, see he has that, he has that handle it's hard to pronounce.

But Alex Chamberlain just came out talking about how Max Exe Velocity is a really good early indicator of power. And if you go look at Catel Marte, not just qualified hitters, of all hitters of all hits in 2020, he had the eighth hardest hit ball

in terms of max exit velocity during the regular season. I believe there was a couple of homeruns in the offseason that would have pushed him to the 10th. Either way, if you count those, he was, still a top 10 hit in all of the regular season and postseason in terms of max exit velocity. So that's an indication that the power is still there.

Granted, it wasn't a home run. It does not matter. It's the fact that he hit a ball that hard. And that's the same reason why people still love Vlad because even though Vlad hits the ton of ground balls, which Ketel doesn't hit turn ground balls, but he has a plus speed tool to actually, if that does, he won't fuck his batting average. But it's just a reminder that the power might not have showed in the bottom line, but it was still there.

And I think the wrist injury was a big reason why he wasn't able to get the quality of contact on the ball maybe and it kind of threw off everything. So I don't think he was as good as 2020 showed, but I think he's better than what, I was sorry, I know he wasn't as good as 2019 showed, but I don't think he's as bad as 2020 showed either. There's a happy medium there, kind of similar to Glaber Torres. Yeah, and I don't want to just give you a cop-out projection of, okay, well, you know, we'll combine what he did in 2019 and what he did in 2020 and we'll project that over 150 games.

but I don't think that he's going to maintain a home run to fly ball ratio of 19%, which he had in 2019. But I don't think it's going to be 3.8% either like it was in 2020. So if we can get a 300 batting average with 20 to 22 home runs with solid counting stats, runs in RBIs, like, yes, Ketel Marte can pay off an early ADP of 78, which is in the seventh round. And second base. Yeah, second base is a second base.

second basis is kind of a bad position. The one that it's going to be interesting to me, and I have them ranked back to back right now, and I have Jose Altovae one spot higher, is Altuve versus Cotel Marte? Because Altuvei just, he did not have a good regular season, but in the postseason, he just clicked. And that was against some of the best pitching in baseball.

So Altuve versus Marte is, I think, a conversation a lot of people will have in the offseason, and I think that it is warranted. A few other names that I actually wrote about, and you can go check them out again on CBSports.com, is Chris Paddock, who we're not going to get to here, and Frankie Monta. So if you want to read about why I am giving those guys a pass for the 2020 season, you can find that at CBS Sports.com.

A few names that I'm worried about. I'm not going to overreact too much over what they did in 2020, but I think that there was enough there where I have legitimate concerns over Kesson Hiara, Chris Bryant, and Patrick Corbin, the three names that I would just mention here quickly. Hear is still extremely young. He'll be 24 years old when the 2021 season starts. And I still think he's loaded with potential.

But the strikeouts, a 34.6% strikeout rate, fifth highest among qualified hitters in 2020, a 20% swinging strike rate was second behind only Luis Robert. Heera led the National League with 85 strikeouts in just 59 games. So strikeouts are an issue. the Babbitt cratered from compared to 2019. Worry about those things. His quality of contact went down.

Chris Bryant, just a ton of injuries at this point. His plate discipline is starting to slip as well. And he's getting up there in age. He's not old, per se, but he's 29 years old. Patrick Corbyn, I just don't think that I can have anything to do with him. The fastball velocity down,

the swinging strike rate way down. He just led all qualified pitchers with a one point. 5-7 whip. So Corbyn, Bryant, here are three names for me early on here in the off-season, Mike, that I cannot just look the other way

when it comes to 2020. I actually do have legitimate concerns. Yeah, and the one that really sticks out to me, and it's because I started, I started arguing people on Twitter already about this one, is like, Keston here, I'm really, I'm with you, I'm really concerned. You mentioned the second worst swing strike rate in baseball,

the worst contact rate. So a lot of it is, I think pitchers figured, him out because in 2019 he kind of overperformed across the board on fast balls, breaking balls, and off speed pitches. So you take that overperformance and you regress it to even the mean, but it looks like he obviously regressed even farther, but nothing indicates in the numbers that he's going to just bounce back from that. And then he saw less fast balls as a whole, more breaking balls and off speed pitches.

So shows that pitchers obviously adapted, show that because he was able to hit fastballs. And I believe now correct me if I'm wrong, but he also saw a lot more pitches up in the zone. So that also included, like that added to his woes a bit. So all in all, of these three names, he's the one of the most worried about because at least the other two have some of the concerns baked into their ADP. He does not really. Like I'd rather kind of just sit back. I'll take Al Tuvao right now over him. I'll probably take Katamarte over him too because I trust them with a little more track record and here the ceiling's higher. But are we sure the floor isn't, isn't Odor 30, 12 and 220? Damn.

That was crazy. That just blew my mind. Because, like, please, K-Hara does not, do not become Rudnett-O-Dor. Like, please don't. Because 30% K-rate, too. Over 30% each of the last two years. It's not crazy. It's not like...

Now, that's his floor. Like, that's his, absolutely, like, we saw that. That was his floor this year. Right. But when you look at Rognito-Dore, it's a 30-plus percent strikeout rate with 30-home runs and double-dgeted steals. The counting stats are nice, but because he's going to get so many at bats in the middle of that lineup, that batting

average is going to sink you and you're drafting them to where he needs to be more of a, at least a 3.5 category producer to kind of give you back some, you know, for Toronto investment. Whereas if you're only getting three categories with a top 70 pick and you mentioned here like a six round, six round pick roughly, that's going to hurt you more than it's going to help you. Yeah. And even if you play in a points league, the strikeouts are like you want play discipline in a points league and his strikeouts are just massive. He averages 2.4 fantasy points per game this season. And so, yeah, troublesome for sure when it comes to Hira. The early ADP is 70, which puts him in the sixth round.

I still, I like the talent, but I might just take a year off in 2021 on Hira and like an evaluation year and see kind of how he bounces back. And honestly, if he goes off, I won't be mad at myself for not having shares of Keston Hira. So you can read about those, again, more at CBSports.com. We do have some mailbag questions that I wanted to get to here. These first couple of ones are from our Apple podcast reviews, and this one is from Helton 4. Are you a Rockies fan? Todd Helton, aka Andrew.

I snuck away with the championship this year and my 10 team head-to-head points league, and that gives me the first overall pick in 2021. Interesting. So you win the championship in your league and you get the first pick. That's a pretty nice prize. Pitchers are more valuable in our league, so I am torn between Jacob DeGrom and Shane Bieber.

I had DeGrom this year, and he did fantastic work for, me, who should I take first overall next year? What do you think, Mike? Can I pass? I mean, it's tough, man, because I know Bieber, like, he did the best in this format, but we talked about losing hand. That bullpen isn't looking great.

The offense lost Hernandez and Santana. So until we see the moves they make, I don't try. I think he's going to become to ground where we're going to see the wind totals go down. So I'm going to take my chance on part of Garrett Cole having the most wind potential here with a similar ceiling in terms of points per game and innings per game. And I'm talking between Cole and DeGron with Bieber following third for me. Yeah, so my early pitcher ranks, I have it to Grom, Beber, Cole. That's more so for Roto.

But in a points league, yeah, I might agree with you with Garrett Cole because you look at all three pitchers here, the last 45 starts. Garrett Cole has gone six plus in 37 of its last 45, which is the most of these three pitchers. So he's going to give you depth, and I mean, he really started to click down the stretch with Kyle Higashioka as his catcher, and it seems like that's the way that they're trending for next season,

that he will at least have a personal catcher. And the win potential is still there with the Yankees. I would expect their bullpen to bounce back as well. So first overall, I don't know if Garikovil, you didn't even list him, but assuming he's not kept or something, I would go with Garikolo, and I think Mike Trout is still in the conversation.

Yes. Although it sounds like you want to take a pitcher here in a head-to-head points league, which, honestly, I can't really blame you. This next was from R-Tomp, 242, 10-team head-to-head points. Keep Forever, Dynasty League. I am trying to trade for Garrett Cole. Right now, my offer is Zach Veen, Max Meyer,

Zach Wheeler, Tony Gonsolin, Tanner Hauke, and my first and second round picks for next year's first-year player draft. I'm receiving Garrett Cole and Sam Huff, who is a catcher prospect with massive amounts of potential for the Texas Rangers. Quality pitching is extremely valuable in our league, so I am ready to give up more average guys for an extremely good pitcher.

What do you think? What do you think, Mike? So I initially first thought was like, wow, that's a lot, but let's think about a points league, 10 team at that. So 10 teams are already shallower. Points league, you have no middle infield, typically, no corner infield,

only three outfielders. Is that really become a lot to give up? because now this guy is going to have a lot of big roster crunch. You're going to be able to replenish your minor leagues off the waiver wire, probably with some solid, some decent prospects that are maybe not on the radar in this type of format, usually. Plus, we don't know how many prospects they can keep as well.

It's the picks that bother me. If I can keep that first round pick and give up a second and just a second here, or maybe I would like to try to keep the first round pick, but if this is like a final deal, take it or leave it, I'm willing to make the move, especially assuming that Cole is like a piece that's going to not only give you the chance to win again, it's format dependent. this format being this shallow and being points with pitching being such a big, like such a

need, such a need and should be valuable, I'm willing to give up the steep price because I just think there's going to be so much to replace off the waiver wire when it comes to those prospects. Yeah, and that is a good point. My first instinct as well is that this is a bit steep. But I would, first of all, I would only make this trade if you're ready to compete. I think first and foremost, like making dynasty trades, you have to be realistic with yourself. And yet, Okay, if you're ready to go, then yes, you can trade away prospects and you try and compete. But, you know, if you're in the middle of a rebuild, obviously this doesn't make sense with Garrett Cole, I believe turning 31 years old next season.

So you have to be in the thick of things. I hear, like, you kind of talk me into a little bit here, Mike. There's a lot to like with these players, but in a 10-team league, you probably can replenish rather quickly, and you're crunching the roster. So I like it. I like it. If you're ready to compete, I would say take the trade, try and talk them out of one of those picks there. This one's from Canon 4.

We're going the other way. From a 10-team league to a 20-team league, head-to-head categories 6x by 6 with OBP and holds. Keep five of these players. McKenzie Gore, Ian Anderson, Jesus Lazzardo, Matt Chapman, Chris Bryant, Kevin Bigio, and Alec Bome.

Five of those guys, Mike. Gore, Anderson, Lazzardo, B, Bome, and it's between Chapman and Bigio. I'm going to go with Bigio for. for the speed because that's the one thing he's lacking there yeah so this person's also already keeping Trevor story trey turner oh yeah Cody bellinger Ozzie albies they actually do have a lot of speed uh but the o bp definitely helps cabin bizio as well yeah has aranola Zach gallon and clevenger at some of his keepers already uh yeah i would go lazardo ian anderson bzio boom and gore yeah

we're on the same page chris bryant um especially like getting up there You can't really sacrifice any of these young guys for Bryant. And Chapman, I got to see what happens in the off season because this guy just had hip surgery and he has like four months of rehab coming up. So is Matt Chapman going to be the Matt Chapman involved? I don't know. I can't answer that right now in November 2020.

So see what happens with Matt Chapman. Your emails, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. That's the letter I, not like EY.E. Some people have asked about that in the past. This one's from Dustin. judging by the success the raise had this year with her analytical driven bullpen approach I think it's fair to assume teams will look to mimic it

therefore I expect we will continue to see less and less true closers and saves will continue to be spread out amongst the bullpen I'm in a long-standing 12-team keeper league with standard 5-by-5 scoring and I think it's time we explore options to counting saves as a category I think it's time we explore options to counting saves

maybe a different option Maybe I copy and paste it this wrong. Anyway, are there any stats that you recommend to potentially replace saves? What about a stat that measures the value of a specific out? That's tough. I like saves plus holds personally. I mean, I think that kind of encompasses all relief pitching, and it gives you a chance to get the best relief pitchers on your team,

not just target a specific stat. So saves plus holds is a good one. And if you're looking just to get kind of fun with it, maybe look for your high-end relievers. Go K per 9 or something fun like that, maybe. But SACE plus holds is usually my go-to because it gives you a chance to kind of just get the best relievers out of any, out of any, out of baseball, period. All righty. That's it. Mike, Sleepy K, you made it through your inaugural edition of Fantasy Baseball today.

How does it feel? I mean, it's awesome. It's like I'm dreaming. Next to you know, this guy's like passed out in his chair. Hopefully we didn't put you to sleep. Hopefully we didn't put anyone to sleep out there. Again, Mike Curlin, give him a follow on Twitter at Mike underscore. K-U-R-L-A-N-D.

He is the host of the Bases Loaded podcast contributor for Roto Baller. Mike, is there anything else that I missed that you would like to promote while you're here? I am working on a draft kit. Just thought I'd plug that real quick. SP-Streamer Draft Kit, if you're not familiar, he's a good friend of mine. He's been doing good things on Twitter, and he probably had draft kit last year. And this year, I'm going ahead and pretty much covering all the offensive side of things. So be on look out for that.

But other than that, I'm kind of just hanging in there, moving. So I got a lot going on. But other than that, yeah, that's about it, man. Thank you for having me. I really honestly can't think of you enough. This is, like I said, as cliche as it is, it's like a dream come true. So thanks, man. Really appreciate it.

Nah, man, you did a fantastic job. Thank you for joining us. So appreciate you coming on. And, yeah, that's basically it for Sleepy K. I am Frank Sample. You all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today on our YouTube channel. We'll be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye.