Fantasy Baseball Today - Devers Is Back, Injury Replacements & Rockies Prospect Promotions! (4/7 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 7, 2025

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is staying with the Blue Jays for the next 14 years (2:18)! ... Jesus Luzardo has entered must-start status (5:14). ... Spencer Schwellenbach is even better now (8:16). ... Rafae...l Devers is back (10:55)! ... We have injury replacements for Ketel Marte, Blake Snell, Ivan Herrera and others (18:10). ... The Rockies promoted Chase Dollander on Sunday and plan to promote Zac Veen on Tuesday (26:26). ... Who are the top waiver wire pitchers (35:45)? ... Can you drop Buehler, Verlander and Blanco (44:41)? ... Ben Rice is starting to play more (48:05). ... These pitchers have been a bit confusing early on (57:25). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:09:32). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, welcome in South Fantasy Baseball today on Monday. April 7th.
Starting point is 00:00:28 I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, it was a busy weekend. Every weekend's a busy weekend. Injuries have some big names, Blake Snell and Ketzel Marte. You will need some replacements. The Rockies were busy promoting some of their top prospects
Starting point is 00:00:44 and much more, but even before we get to players of the weekend, we just got some breaking news. Per Jeff Passon, first baseman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays are in agreement on a 14-year $500 million contract extension, a monumental no-deferral deal
Starting point is 00:01:03 to keep the homegrown star in Toronto for the rest of his career. Boom. Thoughts? It's not the deal I would want to give out if I was running a baseball team. But that's what players who are not in their 30s get now
Starting point is 00:01:24 when they get to free agency. So I guess it's fine. Star level players. I have 14 years, 500 million over 14 years, comes out to a little under 36 million a year. So I am surprised he got that much, but it is over a lot of years.
Starting point is 00:01:42 So it's an extension. So that means this year doesn't count, right? 14 years after this one. I would assume that. So the last year of it is 2040. That sounds right. I just wanted to point that out. 2040.
Starting point is 00:01:59 It'll be here sooner than you think. Yeah, I mean, that's a long time from next. But yeah, that's, I don't know. Like he, if he plays like he did last year, it's probably a fine deal. But we've only got two years where he's played at that superstar level. So it's a, yeah, it's a risk. It's just that he's a right-handed hitting first base. Yeah, they first baseman, we've seen the market suppressed for them in recent years, especially.
Starting point is 00:02:26 But he can play third base and maybe he will some. I don't know. And he's still only 26. like that he he will be in his 30s at the end of this deal but it's not like you're giving it to an already 30 year old he's very very young he just turned 26 so i get it happy for him and uh you know i think there's a decent chance it looks pretty bad but that's every contract yeah especially the back half of that deal but yeah it doesn't really change much for fantasy vladd junior staying in toronto good news for blue jays fans man because they've tried for years to get the top free agent on the market and so to keep one of their home growing around and obviously, you know, Vlad is,
Starting point is 00:03:11 I guess you could say a superstar, maybe that's up for question, but he is obviously a really, really good player, so happy for them to be able to keep him. Kyle Tucker will be an interesting talking point next offseason. He's going to be 28 years old and he's already off to an awesome start. So that will be the star of free agency next off season.
Starting point is 00:03:30 Well, with that said, let's get into this weekend's action. Is this happening? It is. It is happening. What is happening? Who wants to go first? Let's go with Chris, you're up first. Jesus Lazzardo is happening and it's very, very exciting what we're seeing from Jesus Lazzardo. It's not just that the fastball velocity remains up, although that's the primary thing that we wanted to keep an eye on early this season. he was down to 95.2 miles per hour last season and the fastball got rocked. This has been the consistent theme throughout Jesus Lazzardo's career.
Starting point is 00:04:11 When he averages over 96 miles per hour with his fastball, he tends to be really good. And when he's below it, he tends to be pretty bad. And right now he's sitting at 96.8. But he's also introduced this new sweeper that he's throwing primarily but not exclusively to lefties. and it's giving them a little more balanced of an arsenal, right? Because he's got the changeup and slider that he now throws almost exclusively to righties. Sweeper can be the big putaway pitch to lefties. And it's three different pitches with a whiff rate of 40% or better so far.
Starting point is 00:04:48 It's only two starts, but that is really impressive stuff. And I don't know, man. I know there's injury risk. I know there's some performance risk if Luzardo's stuff plays down, but he currently looks like a top 25-ish pitch. You know, given what he's doing through his first two starts, given that we've seen him play at that level before, it feels a little less risky than saying it about some other guys.
Starting point is 00:05:17 And also just it's a really good team around him, which he didn't have in Miami. So there's a lot of ways it falls apart and there's a lot of risk, but Hazel Lozardo looks like a huge win for anybody who drafted him. And the fact that this came against the Dodgers this weekend too, right? It's, look, if you bench him. I didn't even mention that, yeah. If you benched him, I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:05:38 I bench him in a lot of leagues. And I think we told people to bench him, which, again, I tell people what I do on my own teams. And so I missed out on this Lozardo start everywhere. But now you feel even better about getting him back in your lineup after he just had that start. So I guess the next question is, is Lazzardo just a must- our pitcher now. Until he shows otherwise. I can't imagine
Starting point is 00:06:01 setting him after this start. Yeah. Yeah. And I will point out the one league where I started, Chris Paddock, is a league where I had
Starting point is 00:06:09 Jesus Lazzardo on my bench. Well, what a gut punch. Yeah. That could have gone better. Oh, man. It could have gone better for sure.
Starting point is 00:06:18 Yeah. But, you know, you tend to overthink line-up decisions this time of year, especially. You just, you just kind of,
Starting point is 00:06:25 of do-eyed about everything and think it's all going to work out. You're Pollyannish, right? Is that the right term? Polyana? Yeah. Pepper and? Pepperant? Much too cool for seventh grade.
Starting point is 00:06:44 Much too cool for seventh grade for sure. Let's talk about another pitcher who is off to a great start. That is Cy Schwellenbach. Destroyed the Marlins, eight shutout innings, two hit zero walks, 10 strikeouts, 23 whiffs on 99 pitches, 11 of those on the fastball, which was just incredible in this one. 48% whiff rate, 43% CSW. And I did see some notes from our buddy Lance Brosdowski.
Starting point is 00:07:12 He has a substack, a newsletter that goes out. I highly encourage everybody to subscribe to that. And I saw some notes in there on Chwellenbox fastball. Apparently he's getting more vertical break and more extension on his fastball this season. which is obviously helping it play up and it was really, really good in a start. Not that Chwellenbach needed to get better, but it looks like he has gotten better.
Starting point is 00:07:34 At least through two starts, I get it, the competition here against the Marlins. It's a really, really good matchup. But for those who were hoping and praying for the Schwellenbach breakout, it looks like it's happening. Yeah, he generated a whiff on 31% of his pitches in the strike zone,
Starting point is 00:07:51 which is, or on 30% of his swings in the strike zone. That's a really big number. Remember last season, only Josh Hater had a higher mark among all pitchers. Now, doing that for one start is very different. There have been other pitchers who have had similar, but it just highlights how dominant he was in this one. He had a deep secondary arsenal that he was able to mix in match based on matchups. So you take that deep secondary arsenal full of swing and miss pitches and you pair it,
Starting point is 00:08:21 you add in this elite fastball. That's going to be with elite control too. by the way. My favorite stat for the Schwellenbach the Schwellenbach start this weekend. He entered the start against the Marlins
Starting point is 00:08:32 with a 0.33 whip and he lowered it. So his whip right now stands at 0.29, which I'm not sure is a whip I've ever seen before. In some ways, that's more impressive
Starting point is 00:08:45 than like a zero whip. Just because like you have to pitch enough innings to get precisely that number, 0.29. Yeah. And it was a weekend short on good starts from good pitchers especially.
Starting point is 00:08:59 So really welcome stuff from Spencer Schwellenbach. Yeah, it was an interesting weekend of like pitchers who had a good first start. A lot of those didn't have great second starts. And just some big name pitchers that are off to weird starts this season. Like Corbyn Burns is off to a weird start. Bryce Miller will talk about some of those names a little bit later on. Jacob de Grom, weird start this weekend as well. We'll get to those names.
Starting point is 00:09:22 Scott, how about a hitter, your player of the weekend? Yeah, Rafael Devers. And I know we've talked about Raphael Devers a lot. I think this will be the last time we talk about him for a while because we couldn't have gotten a more definitive sign that he's totally fine, totally back to normal than what happened on Sunday. In a double header, he went four for four in the first game with two doubles. He went just one for four in the second game,
Starting point is 00:09:50 but with his first home run of the season. I think you have that reverse cut. Okay. Fair enough. Not that it's a big deal, but yeah. Yeah. Overall, he went five for eight with two doubles and a home run. And he had six balls batted 103 miles per hour or more between the two games.
Starting point is 00:10:09 So and look, I was already convinced he was back prior to this game. This is just all like final confirmation as far as I'm concerned. The bat speed was up after being, after lagging early. on. He looked like he was totally back to form. And I think this is, even more than what it says for Raphael Devers, I think this is demonstrative of how you should approach a struggling stud early in the season. Because remember, Raphael Devers started out 0 for 19 with 15 strikeouts. Look totally inept. Couldn't have been worse. Yeah. Since then, 19 abats since then 10 for 19 with two strikeouts. And that's,
Starting point is 00:10:54 that is just how baseball works sometimes. And the thing is with Raphael Devers specifically, the reason why I like him as an example is because there were extenuating circumstances. There were reasons to believe that there may actually be something to this awful start to the season, given that he never had the shoulder issues from last year addressed and the final two months went poorly and all of that. But there was also the fact he was Raphael Devers. there was also the fact he played in just five spring games and probably didn't have his timing down.
Starting point is 00:11:29 But even if you couldn't make concrete excuses for it, I got to admit, my take on here was, yeah, you need to hold on Rafael Devers. But it was hard to articulate exactly why. And I understood as I was explaining this, it probably didn't sound very convincing.
Starting point is 00:11:48 But the reality is just, he's Raphael Devers. Yeah, it was just he's Raphael Devers. The season's less than a week old. And the thing is, this turned around so much quicker than it could have. Like, this happened in, like, the span of a week as season turned on a dime. It could have taken six weeks. And for some of your struggling studs, it will take that long.
Starting point is 00:12:08 But you have to, like, this is a lesson that needs to be relearned every year for some reason. People just have short-term memories. And I guess it's human nature you buy into what you're seeing right now. There are some people who want to map out what the whole rest of the season. looks like based on, you know, here on April 7th. They know based on everything that has happened so far, how the season's going to play out. And that's, it's absurd. You, you, I'm not going to say we've learned nothing so far, but we've learned next to nothing.
Starting point is 00:12:39 Mm-hmm. So far. And, and especially about hitters. You know, one thing we're, we're learning what like the bat speed data can tell us and what we can learn. And I think one takeaway from Raphael Devere's start that you can see in the bat speed. It was all timing. Like the fact that his swing speed has been down is concerning because he dealt with the shoulder injuries. But swing speed is not just a result of how hard you can physically swing the bat.
Starting point is 00:13:08 It also like batter swing speed is higher in hitters counts than in pitchers counts. Like right guys, when guys are defending, they don't swing quite as hard. These are just some trends that we've noticed. and in Devers case his swing speed is down but also the distance from which he connects with the ball has gone from seven inches in front of the plate last year to right at the front of the plate point two inches behind the plate or in front of the plate which means he's connecting with the ball deeper which means he's licked right like he's trying to hit it out in front he's not doing that right now. That to me suggests that he's just late on his swings and hasn't been
Starting point is 00:13:57 able to get there. And now he's got a couple of big games under his belt. I mostly think Rafael Devers is just going to be fine. Yeah. And just in general for the Red Sox bats, I mean, it was a big weekend all around for them. And Rafael Devers wasn't the only one. Alex Bregman had a huge double header, four for nine with a home run and six RBI. His last four games. He has nine hits, two homers, seven runs, 10 RBI. and Williare Brayu, after that huge game on opening day, he's just continued to hit the ball very hard here. Three for five with a home run on Friday,
Starting point is 00:14:29 and then three for seven with four RBI across the doubleheader on Sunday. So like I said about the Cubs, I mean, there are a few lineups each year here that just kind of break out altogether, and it helps everyone's fantasy value. So I feel that way about, I feel like that could be happening for the Cubs. I kind of feel like that could happen for the Red Sox this season as well.
Starting point is 00:14:49 Before we hit our first break, Just a reminder that you can listen to FBT and FBT Express on Spotify. And big thanks to those watching us live. Make sure to hit the like button and subscribe on YouTube if you haven't already. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. News and notes, lots to cover from the weekend. Cotel Marte was placed in the IL Saturday with a left hamstring strain.
Starting point is 00:15:14 And Marte, just looking at his skill set, doesn't have many downsides. But one of them is the fact that he has dealt with injury. to both of his hamstrings throughout the course of his career. So, Chris, I know that you usually good at finding the injury timeline for really any injuries, but how much time are we expecting Cotel Martite to miss here? I did not look this one up ahead of time. I would guess that you're looking at probably a month on average for a hamstring strain, maybe less, but it's usually either the minimum or a month plus, right?
Starting point is 00:15:48 Like it doesn't really tend to be anything in between. So four hitters, the average days missed is 26 for hamstring strains. Hamstring injuries. They did, the debacks promoted Tim Tawa up to basically replace Cotele as their second basement. We spoke about him on our Saturday edition of FBT Express, which was just, in general, Scott, it was like really good timing because we spoke about a few names that either got called up this weekend or are expecting to be called up this week. so good on you for that. Tim Tawa, 25 years old, put up big numbers in the minors last year,
Starting point is 00:16:23 31 homers, 14 steals. I think he's just a name in the deepest of leagues for now. He's 3% rostered on CBS. If you're looking for replacements in much shaller formats, Jake Cronoworth, Otto Lopez, our two-second basemen that are on your sleeper hitters list for this upcoming week, Scott, and then some other names that are right around 70% rostered. Michael Garcia, Luis Renhifo, Tyler Fitzgerald.
Starting point is 00:16:47 Yeah, I mean, Croninworth sounds like the best of those, whether you're talking this week or beyond. And he's actually my number one sleeper hitter for this week with the Padres having the second best hitter matchups. And off to a nice start. OBP just below 400. Yep. I do want to point out the fact that they didn't call Jordan Lawler up either suggests that Katel Marte's injury is not that serious or that they just really want to get Jordan Lawler. more reps, which would make sense given all the time he's missed, but he has played. I think he started two games at second base and one game at third so far.
Starting point is 00:17:25 So, Tawa wasn't even in the lineup Sunday. He was in the lineup Saturday, but not Sunday. So I don't know that Tim Tawa is. I don't know that it's so much that, oh, we really need to get Tim Tawa major league at Bats. Some names in Deeper League, second base replacements here. Isaiah Kiner Folefa, who I think we know who he is, but he's been running early on this season. Gavin Lux, who's been playing for the Reds, and Kyrin Paris, who is the name we're going to talk a little bit more about later on,
Starting point is 00:17:52 but he's kind of playing sporadically for the Angels doing some really interesting things so far, so a name that you can look at in deeper leagues. We did lose some pitchers this weekend as well. Blake Snell placed on the 15-day IL due to left shoulder inflammation. He completed a bullpen on Sunday and then informed the Dodgers that his shoulder was bothering him. The Dodgers were called Matt Sauer from AAA, but he's, expected to pitch out of the bullpen. We'll talk Weaver wire replacements later on,
Starting point is 00:18:21 but have you guys seen or read anything about a timeline here on Blake Snell? I would assume we're going to do testing on Monday, but I haven't seen anything yet. Yeah, I don't think they can tell much when the inflammation's still raging. Yeah. Could you hear anything I said?
Starting point is 00:18:37 Yes. I don't know that I'm going to make it through this whole podcast. It's just constantly glitching on me. We did have another pitcher go down at Nessor Cortez to the aisle with a left elbow flexor strain and he dealt with a similar injury towards the end of last season as well.
Starting point is 00:18:51 Might explain why the velocity has been down apparently going for a second opinion which is obviously never good news for a starting pitcher. I do wonder, given all the injuries the Brewers have dealt with, if this is a long-term thing, do they maybe give their pitching prospect Jacob Miziarowski a chance in the rotation?
Starting point is 00:19:10 Well, that was another thing we talked about on the bonus Saturday episode of Fantasy. Baseball Today Express because he was mentioned in my prospects column this past week two. And he threw, I can't remember the exact number, but it was like two-thirds of his pitches for strikes in his first start, which is just one star. But that is what he needs to improve upon. And that's what will keep him from becoming a relief pitcher prospect instead of a starting
Starting point is 00:19:36 pitcher prospect. Well, I don't know what happened in the second outing. He didn't make a start. He's made one appearance out of the bullpen. he has seven walks and eight and two-thirds inning so far so it doesn't sound like it went well over the weekend yeah so he
Starting point is 00:19:50 yeah he threw out of the bullpen this weekend Mizziarowski three and two-thirds no-hit innings four walks four strikeouts so yeah he's got seven walks in his first two outings here but no hits
Starting point is 00:20:03 I mean that's a well one hit allowed through two out two outings yeah that's the thing is he's stuff is next to unhittable but just not enough strikes yep Lighter also went on the aisle with a blister. Patrick Corbyn will take his spot in the
Starting point is 00:20:17 rotation. Back to non-pitchers, Ronald Acuna will meet with doctors in L.A. in the coming days. He hopes to be cleared for a running program. He is, again, rehabbing a torn ACL to his other knee. Matt McLean was a late scratch Friday with a hamstring injury. Then he missed both Saturday and Sunday as well. Are you guys starting or sitting Matt McLean this week? I think I have both for to sit him. Yeah, I'd rather sit him if it's possible. Shohei Otani threw a 26 bullpen on Saturday, and he mixed in a few splitters for the first time
Starting point is 00:20:52 since resuming his throwing program. Fran Berwaldes is dealing with some fatigue and a sore throat, so some kind of illness going on, putting his status in question for his scheduled start on Tuesday, which I believe was supposed to be against the Mariners. So that's a good matchup, and if he doesn't start that time, I assume he'll start over the weekend, so I think you're still okay.
Starting point is 00:21:13 putting Valdez in the lineup this week. This one stinks. Ivan Herrera. Ivan Herrera placed in the aisle with left knee inflammation. Obviously, it was off to a great start. His teammate Pedro Paez will start in his place and is worth a look in some of those deeper two catcher leagues. But if you play in a one catcher league,
Starting point is 00:21:33 possible replacements, Gabriel Moreno, Ryan Jeffers, Cabert Ruiz, Hunter Goodman, and Sean Murphy, 34% rostered, expected to be activated this week. week. Who do you guys like from that group there? Moreno, Jeffers, Ruiz, Goodman, Sean Murphy. I think I like Moreno the most still, but Goodman's not far behind. Hunter Goodman has started every single game for the Rockies this year, whether mostly a catcher, but some at DH. And he's typically bad to clean up for them too. Obviously, a lot of power potential
Starting point is 00:22:08 for Hunter Goodman. Is he going to make good on it? and deserve the abats he keeps getting. I can't say that for sure. It's obviously somewhat unproven at the major league level. But in a one catcher league, I would take a shot on that upside probably. Points league maybe Moreno instead because the plate discipline, especially the strikeout rate being so low.
Starting point is 00:22:35 Sean Murphy is much more available than both, and he is coming back, though I will point out, they're keeping Drake Baldwin around too. they sent Chadwick Trump they actually DFA'd him so Baldwin's sticking around and that might that might
Starting point is 00:22:49 cost Murphy's summit bats I presume it would I doubt Baldwin's going to be a true number two catcher given his prospect standing and and he's like I understand the numbers look bad
Starting point is 00:23:03 he only has four hits and the batting average is low 154 but he's had some of the worst luck of any hitter I would imagine he has like the biggest ex-woba minus woba in baseball. Yeah. That was Drake Baldwin that we were just talking about again.
Starting point is 00:23:19 Sean Murphy expected back this week. So if you were stashing him in those two catcher leagues, you can get him back in your lineups. Let's get back to the Rockies here. And they plan to promote Zach Veen for his major league debut on Tuesday. Over the weekend, he had a five-hit game at AAA with a home run, two doubles, 10 total bases in that game. I don't really understand what the Rockies are doing.
Starting point is 00:23:42 I'm happy that they called Zach Vien up this early in the season, not going to complain about it. He's 24% rostered. And I think any leagues with five outfielders, you should be looking at Zach Veen. Yep. Now, I presented that on Twitter, and a lot of the questions were like, oh, should I drop him for this guy, this guy? And I usually found myself saying no to the people asking if they should drop player X for Vene. But if it is five outfielders, you at least look to see who you can drop. And you go even harder after him if you need stola bases because I think that is the most likely thing Veen is going to contribute.
Starting point is 00:24:22 I think he very well could contribute power too. The exit velocity readings this spring and then the minors were good, much improved from what we had previously. I spent a lot of his minor league career playing through injuries, which has suppressed the production. I don't think he's like a super safe investment. it's very likely he strikes out 12 times in his first 20 of bats and gets sent down. But the upside is enticing enough in five outfielder leagues for you two to gamble on Zach Fien. All right. The other news for the Orioles, O'Oxies, is that they promoted their top pitching prospect, Chase Dolander. He made his major league debut on Sunday against the A's five inning, seven hits, four runs, one walk, six strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:25:06 Two homers allowed, but did pick up the win in the game. He had 10 whiffs on, I believe, 79. pitches in that one he's 37% rostered look it's tough man it's tough to uh trust any pitcher let alone a prospect but you know he does come with big pedigree he was a first round pick great numbers in the miners but i just don't really know how much we can trust it at all so i think what you're hoping for is something like this where he's not good but it's not a total disaster if you have to start him at home and then hopefully he can be really good on the road. I think that's probably something like the best case scenario.
Starting point is 00:25:46 Maybe the best case scenario he's actually useful at home, but that's pretty unlikely. But if he can be a 4-5 ERA guy at Corris Field and a 350 ERA guy on the road, I think that's realistic. It's not the most likely, but it's realistic. This might be the most interesting pitcher the Rockies have ever had, frankly, Chase Dallender. Since that big offseason when they brought in Mike Hampton
Starting point is 00:26:10 and Darrell Kyle and just tried to address the pitching problem by throwing a bunch of money at it. This is the most interesting pitching development for the Rockies. They have had big prospects before John Gray, but Dahlinder specifically, it has such a,
Starting point is 00:26:26 such a, like the fastball, the characteristics on the fastball, its ability to induce whiffs on its own. You would hope that's enough at Coorsfield, where famously the thin air, it flattens breaking balls. So it often like neutralizes a pitcher's best weapons.
Starting point is 00:26:50 But in Dahlinder's case, it's the fastball itself. I would like to see him, at least in his home starts, throw his fastball more than I believe it was 43% of the time, which is not a low percentage for a fastball, but I think he needs to lean on it even more in those home starts. So it'll be fascinating to see how it plays out for Chase Dallender. he didn't have a great spring. His first start of AAA wasn't that great.
Starting point is 00:27:12 I'm surprised he got called up, frankly. So I'm not moving to add him, but I'm definitely keeping a close eye on Chase Dallender. All right. Spencer Shreder will make another rehab start at AAA on Thursday. I kind of thought his next start would come in the majors because his last rehab outing, five and a third, no-hit innings with eight strikeouts at AAA, 75 pitches.
Starting point is 00:27:36 And frankly, he looked ready. but I don't really blame them for playing it cautiously here with Spencer Shrider. Gunner Henderson was activated on Friday. He went one for 13 this weekend, lots of strikeouts as well. It's going to take some time for him to get back on track and find that timing. Victor Robles expected to land on the IEL. He took an awkward leap into the netting in right field and messed up his. It sounds like shoulder.
Starting point is 00:28:00 Yeah, it looked like wrist slash arm, but it was shoulder, yeah. Yeah, had to be carted off. He was in so much pain. Sleeper hitters in the outfield. Max Kepler and T.J. Friedel. If you need a speed replacement in shallower leagues, Victor Scott and Jung Hu Lee is actually hitting well and running a little bit early on,
Starting point is 00:28:17 some speed in deeper leagues. Tommy Fam, Zach Veen, who we just mentioned, Johnny DeLuca and Liotti Tavares. Does that cover outfield replacements or any other names that stand out for you guys? I really like Lee, especially for head-to-head points leagues. He's right up there with Lars Neupbar for me. and how high of priority he is in those formats.
Starting point is 00:28:41 And if he is going to steal bases, which it's only two, small sample, but it's only, it's two. It's three. It's three. Even better.
Starting point is 00:28:49 He does have the speed to steal bases. It wasn't a huge part of his game in the Korean League. But if he's making an effort to do it more, then Junghuli might be a really nice surprise this year. He is not totally punchless either. it's probably more doubles than Homer's power but I don't think he's just a slap hitter so yeah I think Jung Loo Lee could be legitimately good
Starting point is 00:29:18 it's also just worth reiterating if you specifically need speed Zach Veen Yeah I think he's well behind this group But he's also much more available than this group And already be gone in your league Also Jordan Walker he's attempted, I think, three steals already.
Starting point is 00:29:40 And hitting the ball really hard. So it looks like he might be starting to figure it out. 19% strikeout rate in the early going. Average X velocity entering today was like 93 miles per hour. So yeah, there are some very good signs with Jordan Walker all around. Alexis D.S. began a rehab assignment Friday and is nearing a return. He may not be the closer right away, which makes sense. He did not have a good spring.
Starting point is 00:30:02 Xavier Edwards was scratched Sunday due to a sore right knee. He's day-to-day heading into Monday, so might want to make sure you have a shortstop replacement on your bench for that one. Cody Bellinger returned to the lineup Sunday after missing two days with back stiffness. Sandy Alcantara won't start on Monday as he's set to go on the paternity list. It looks like he'll start next weekend against the nationals instead. Moving around a little bit.
Starting point is 00:30:27 When the Dodgers put Freddie Freeman on the aisle, they recalled a casher prospect from AAA, and we thought, Dalton rushing, it's got to happen, right? No, it was Hunter Feduccia instead. It's the Star Wars meme with Anakin and Padman. They're calling up Dalton rushing, right? Yeah, no, no they didn't. No, they did not.
Starting point is 00:30:47 A couple other players went to the aisle this weekend. Nolan Gorman with a right hamstring strain, Michael Soroka with a right bicep strain, Colin Holderman with a right knee sprain, which probably further entrenched as the short-term closer here, at least for the. The Pirates. Let's take our final break.
Starting point is 00:31:05 When we return, we'll get back into the waiver wire, and this weekend's action right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. We'll talk Waverwire pitchers. You might need replacements for Blake Snell, Nessert Cortez, Jack Leiter, depending on the size of your league. And before we even get into, like,
Starting point is 00:31:23 names that are more available, excuse me, just check to make sure, like, the Drew Rasmissons, Chris Bubiches of the world are not available because obviously they are like head and shoulders above the rest right now. Right. Is there anyone else that kind of comes to mind, like, in that, I mean, I feel like it's those two, Chris Bubich and Rasmussen, but is there like anybody else that's kind of in that, a similar tier with those guys? I don't think Max Myers far. I don't think Jordan Hicks is far from those two. And they would be more available, I'm sure. Yes. Yeah. But they're both right around 50%. Let's in a world where they're all available.
Starting point is 00:31:56 Not surprised to hear me say, but Chris Boobich, I agree. I think is far and away. Yeah. The number one. He, like he's kind of reminding me of Cole Reagan's right now, though, because he dominated in that first start. He dominated with his fastball. Most of the Wists came on that pitch. But that's not even, like that wasn't even the main selling point for Chris Boobich.
Starting point is 00:32:20 And here in his second start, eight on the change up, which is more what we're expecting to see. He also has a slider and a sweeper that got a fair amount of Wifts themselves. So like he has several weapons to work with in terms of missing bats. And I think the upside is very, very high for Chris Bubich.
Starting point is 00:32:39 I agree. Yeah, Boobich 77% rostered. And Drew Raspeson, you know what? Both of these guys are RP only, I believe, to start the season here. So Raspicin, I believe, is right at 72%. So, you know, if you're playing a points league, you'll have to use those guys in your RP spots, but they will gain SP eligibility after they make five starts.
Starting point is 00:33:01 A couple other replacements here. Matt, go ahead. I don't, I don't think Drew Rasmussen is like ahead of Max Meyer. I think Chris Buhbich is clearly ahead. And then I think like if the SPARP eligibility doesn't matter, I think Max Meyer and Jordan Hicks are right there with Drew Rasmussen personally. I feel like Rasmussen has the safest floor. But, I mean, you bring up a good point.
Starting point is 00:33:26 How often is he going to go six innings? That last time we talked about Drew Rasmussen, that was your point. And it's a fair one. But the ERA and WIP are going to be low. I feel very confident in that. Just not sure he's the strikeout guy that Meyer can be. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:33:43 Well, let's talk about Max Meyer at the Braves this weekend. Six innings, three runs, eight strikeouts, had 15 whiffs on 92 pitches. Allowed some hard contact in this one, but the velocity remains up. The slider was great. Got eight whiffs on that pitch in this one. Reese Olson, a quality start against the White Sox, six innings, two runs, five strikeouts there. Eduardo Rodriguez.
Starting point is 00:34:02 interesting start at the nationals. He had 12 strikeouts, but four runs allowed over five innings. And, you know, he's 60% rostered. He's home against the Brewers this week. So I think we kind of know who Eduardo Rodriguez is, but obviously 12 strikeouts start. We'll get your attention.
Starting point is 00:34:21 He wasn't a must start pitcher in 2023. Yeah, I mean. 330 that year that year. Kind of fell off in the second half, if I'm remembering that season correctly, right? That sounds right. Yeah. I think you got hurt.
Starting point is 00:34:30 Yeah. It was a great, like, first couple months for, for Erod in that one. Tomoyuki Sugano picked up his first major league win at the Royals, five and a third, one run with four strikeouts. His velocity was down in this one. It was also 45 degrees in the game.
Starting point is 00:34:44 And Matthew Boyd is a name. We really didn't talk much about in spring, but here he is. He's had two good starts so far to start the season. This one against the Padreys, six shutout, five strikeouts. And last year he was good too. I understand like we've kind of gone through the Matthew
Starting point is 00:35:00 Boyd experience for years now, but last year in eight stars a 272 ERA 113 whip very high strikeout rate good swinging strike rate as well I don't want to use him this week because he's at the Dodgers but you know he pitches for a good team and you know so far he's looked pretty good um who are you like two or three favorites from this group boyd sugano erud Reese Olson and max Meyer that's tough to narrow down I think it's Meyer Olson, I think there's a drop after that and it probably just depends on what the next matchup for everyone is. So like, Boyd's got the Dodgers. Nah. It might just be E. Rod versus the Brewers. I think I'm definitely higher on Sugano than you are because I think Sugano, I'm not as
Starting point is 00:35:43 confident in the ERA and WIP as I am for Drew Rasmussen, but I think I'm expecting a pretty similar stat line for those two. So it'll be less than a strikeout per inning. But in Sugano's case, I think you will see him work into the sixth inning pretty often with a good offense backing him. And I don't ever, how rostered is Sugano? 42%. Man, I'm surprised it's that low. I think it'll climb to 80 by the end of April and it will never see a drop below that again is my expectation. I mean, Meyer, I think Max Meyer clearly has the most upside.
Starting point is 00:36:25 because usually when you're talking outside you're talking strikeout potential and he clearly has the most strikeout potential buddy pitches for the Marlins yeah I mean this start was a good example like he was good quality start eight strikeouts and six innings
Starting point is 00:36:39 against the Braves and other Braves have not been great so far but I think this is a good lineup but then Marlins get shut out and the bullpen allowed seven more runs in the final three innings of the game so it's just like yeah really bad around him he's bad supporting cast and I'm sure his workload is going to be limited at well throughout it's going to be limited
Starting point is 00:37:01 so yeah I I'm willing to put I think he's the most talented of them and at this point in the season I'll just ride with talent I get it but I'm going to put sugano and olson ahead of him I'll put my or third all right a couple of their names here who I don't really trust the talent but they do have good matchups this week Tyler McGill is home against the marlin and Mitchell Parker is also at the Marlins later this week. And they both have pitched well so far this season. But I do like the matchups. What do you guys think about McGar?
Starting point is 00:37:33 All right. We get it. We get it. We can stop picking up. I'm sorry. There are other bad lineups in baseball. We don't have to pick everyone against the Marlins. I think Miguel is a lot better than Mitchell Parker.
Starting point is 00:37:47 I don't think there's much there with Mitchell Parker. Miguel has like actual decent stuff. And I think he could have. absolutely have a good start against the Marlins. Trying to remember. Isn't there, because Tyler McGill, we've been down this road with him a few times before
Starting point is 00:38:04 where it's like, maybe Tyler McGill's something. And then he doesn't become something. Yeah. He's got like a good fastball with big extension. I think that's the biggest thing with him. He's changed his pitch mix this year. He's ditched to cutter,
Starting point is 00:38:18 which he used around 15%. That's it. And he doubled his slider and sinker usage so far this season. Yeah, his cutter got crushed. and so I'm happy to see Tyler McGill go away from that, but it's, it's, it's, it's a lottery ticket, but like a lottery ticket with a limited ceiling, I would say. Some names in deeper leagues.
Starting point is 00:38:42 Andrew Heaney got his revenge against the Yankees, seven innings, one run, 10 strikeouts, had 16 whiffs on 100 pitches, and just change things in this start. I mean, he introduced a different curveball, it looks like. that was up in velocity and it had six whiffs and it looked really good in this one. And he also threw seven sinkers
Starting point is 00:39:02 and four slow curves. That's how they were classified on baseball savant. So an interesting start, obviously a good one for Andrew Heaney. Martin Perez was really good once again at the Tigers, six and a third, one run with four strikeouts. He's also Martin Perez and Tyler Alexander pitched well against the Reds on Friday, five and two thirds, no hit innings with six strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:39:25 Deep league names here, but, any interest in, you know, those 15 teamers, Heaney, Martin Perez, Tyler Alexander. Yeah, I mean, at the risk of oversimplifying, Andrew Heaney's had 21, 10 strikeout games in his career, I believe was the number I saw. After how many of those did he become a must-start pitcher? There was that stretch in L.A.
Starting point is 00:39:50 That's pretty much it when he got to the Dodgers. Other than that, it's been, Oh, Andrew Heaney had a good start And we know how this ends It's not a great supporting cast It's a bad bullpen behind him too I think he's just a streamer And at Cincinnati
Starting point is 00:40:06 It feels like playing with fire All right, fair enough Let's do the drovometer for I have three starting pitchers here on the list Walker Bueller A lot five runs over five innings against the Cardinals It's only two starts Really small sample I get it
Starting point is 00:40:22 But other starting pitchers are emerging on the waiver wire. He's got an 868 ERA and a 161 whip. What does he dropometer for Walker Bueller? Eight. Yeah, that feels right. You know the Mendoza line, right? I was talking to Scott before the show,
Starting point is 00:40:40 but this is how I'm mentally modeling pitchers in my head. You know, the Mendoza line, you know, 200 for hitters is like barely acceptable. I'm introducing the Walker Bueller line in my pitcher rankings where every pitcher who has anything interesting going on goes ahead of him. And then if you're below Walker Bueller, buddy, we got problems.
Starting point is 00:41:01 So that's where I'm at on Walker Bueller. I think there's just almost nothing interesting about him. What does that come out to in your rankings? Right now at 74, but that needs some massaging. I think probably around
Starting point is 00:41:16 90 is probably the line. Yeah. Yeah, that's that's yeah. I can probably come up with 80 pitchers. I'm more interested than Bueller at this point, which two weeks ago, maybe not. There was that lingering question.
Starting point is 00:41:32 Could the adjustments to his arsenal we saw in the postseason carry over? But I feel like, and I know it's early, but this is not the case of a, this is the case of a guy who had an ERA over five last year and just showed some
Starting point is 00:41:50 signs of life for a half starts in the playoffs. So this isn't, getting back to my point at the start of the podcast, this isn't counting on your studs to come around because Walker Bueller hasn't been a stud in a long time. Like your expectation for him should have been fringy all along. And I think he's kind of confirmed it already, at least as much as anybody can confirm anything. What about Justin Verlander up against the Mariners? Two and a third innings, three runs. Obviously, was not very efficient.
Starting point is 00:42:19 Didn't last very long here. 42 years old now. just the first two starts have not looked great. Granted, swinging strike rate is pretty high. Still 75% rostered. Where is Justin Verlander on the dropometer? Seven? Yeah, I think right around the same spot.
Starting point is 00:42:35 Okay. And what about Renel Blanco at the Twins? One and two-third innings, four runs, three walks, three strikeouts. He's got a 9.45 ERA. Six walks to nine strikeouts over six and two-thirds. He just hasn't been going deep so far. Again, it's only two starts. but where would Ronell Blanco be on the dropometer?
Starting point is 00:42:55 Seven. I'll go six. I'm not opposed to dropping him. He did. He has been missing bats at a nice rate and it seems like control's been his main issue early on. And that could straighten out. But it's not like he was a big investment in the first place. And if you want to use that spot to try out some of the early risers, I think that's fine.
Starting point is 00:43:20 in Verlander's case, for what it's worth, I think he could still be usable, but I think that's all he'll be, is kind of a streamer at this stage of his career. So that's why he, for Justin Verlander, so dropable. All right, let's slide over to Waver Wire, hitters from the weekend and kind of light weekend here. TJ Friedel, who we mentioned earlier as an outfielder,
Starting point is 00:43:41 you can add this week, one of Scott Sleeper hitters. He went four for five with his first home run, two runs and two RBI on Saturday. So big game for him. Ben Rice, I wanted to mention, let off both Friday, Thursday and Friday. So Gulchman was out of the lineup Thursday. That made some sense.
Starting point is 00:43:57 Gulchman back in the lineup Friday against the righty. Ben Rice still let off that game. He went one for four with a steel, back-to-back games with a steal there. And then he also started Saturday. He hit second against a lefty. He went one for five with a run scored out of the lineup Sunday with Cody Bellinger back in there. But he's 58% rostered. Not sure it needs to be much higher than that, but I feel like,
Starting point is 00:44:19 opportunities will begin to to come. We'll continue to come here for Ben Rice if he continues to play well, obviously. I mean, I was encouraged to see him start against one left. He's just the one, and he's sat some, but I thought it was going to be a strict platoon, and he's forcing his way into the lineup, at least forcing Aaron Boone to think about it against left-handers.
Starting point is 00:44:46 And that's encouraging. I look at some of the first baseman we've been talking about all week, the risers at that position early on. Spencer Torkelson, I think, was my favorite early. And he had a walk-off double, very hard hit ball on Sunday. But a lot of strikeouts and only two walks since that four-walk opening day. So I think Torkelson has slipped probably behind Ben Rice at this point in my order of priority with these first basemen.
Starting point is 00:45:20 Then you have Soderstrom who hit his fourth home run on Sunday. But you look at the data for him, the exit velocities, the expected stats pretty much dead on with last year when he wasn't a major difference maker in fantasy. So I don't know. I don't know where I feel like I'm not sure Soderstrom has actually improved as opposed to just, oh, he's off to a hot starty his four home runs already. Kyle Monsardo hit another home run off of lefty
Starting point is 00:45:50 over the weekend. I think he's clearly number one and he's made two appearances now at first base, I believe. So he's on his way to picking up first base eligibility. I think Monsardo is a clear number one for me. I guess I'll give Soderstrom
Starting point is 00:46:03 the edge over rice because there isn't the platoon concern for Soderstrom, but that's closer than maybe a lot of people would think it is and then Torkelson's behind him. I still think Torkelson has a chance, but he slipped some for me.
Starting point is 00:46:17 Did you see Aaron Boone's explanation for why he hit Ben Rice lead off the other day? No. No. All he said was he rakes. Oh yeah. He does. He has been raking all spring long and to start the season, so that is fair.
Starting point is 00:46:32 A couple names here in deeper leagues. Kairn Paris, two for four with a sock in the shoe on Sunday. This is a former second round pick by the Angels back in 2019. Very bad last year in the minors, but two years ago, 14 homers, 44 steals, had a really big spring for the Angels as well, which earned him a spot on the roster. Now, you know, sporadically getting some playing time.
Starting point is 00:46:55 Leoti Tavares had three steals this weekend. He's up to five already. He's not doing much else besides that. Matt Mervis had a big game on Saturday, three for five with a double dong, three RBI. One of those came off a lefty. And a random big weekend for Trent Grisham, who two for four with two homers on Saturday,
Starting point is 00:47:12 one off of a lefty. and he has now started four straight games, three homers, eight hits, nine RBI during that span. Very deep league stuff here, but any interest in Kyron Paris, Lioti Tavaris, Matt Mervis, and Trent Grisham. I think Tavis only if you're desperate for speed. Paris, I can't say that there's nothing there because he is young.
Starting point is 00:47:36 He struck out so much in the minors. You're talking like 30 to 35% pretty much everywhere. So I think it's unlike me. not much of a power hitter. Yeah, so I think it's unlikely Kyron Paris is much more
Starting point is 00:47:47 than a 15 team league kind of guy. What was the other name you mentioned? Grisham and Matt Mervis. A couple of those home runs were like pop-up home runs. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:48:00 He snuck one of them just around the left field foul pole in Pittsburgh where it's pretty shallow. Yeah. Mervis, I think, is probably the most interesting of these four just because he does have the relatively big AAA minor league track record,
Starting point is 00:48:16 but I think he's probably just an NL only guy too. All right. A couple other hitters here to talk about before we get back into pitching. You're concerned with Dylan Cruz, where are we at? Two for four with a steel on Sunday, but he is now three for 29 with zero extra base hits. He's got 13 strikeouts to one walk, a 43% strikeout rate, lots of ground balls early on.
Starting point is 00:48:39 Somebody asked me this weekend, the possibility of Dylan Cruz getting six. sent down and I don't think it's very likely to happen but man he's if he continues to be this bad like anything is possible well I mean I would think it's less likely after the weekend he didn't strike out as much he had the two-hit game so hopefully he's trending up I don't think tomorrow's when the nationals decide to send him down um but it was a really ugly start obviously and because he is so early in his career he doesn't have that track record in the majors.
Starting point is 00:49:14 Even the time he was up last year, it's not like he contributed much. Some of the underlying signs were encouraging. It's definitely within the realm of possibility. It's not something I was expecting to happen with Dylan Cruz. That was one of my arguments for drafting him actually, is I feel like he's very secure in his role. And he still may be.
Starting point is 00:49:32 This weekend may be the start of the turnaround. And it just becomes a distant memory, all the strikeouts early on. Remember five of those strikeouts came in one game. believe that was the first Teusus Lozardo start. So that adds a little more perspective to it too. I think he's going to be okay. Somebody asked me, that was one of the options.
Starting point is 00:49:55 Somebody brought up on Twitter to drop for Zach Veen. Should I drop Dylan Cruz? And it was like, no. No, I still think Dylan Cruz is much more likely to be an impact player for you this year. But he needs to turn things around for sure. Yeah. Three hitters who are off to a nice start. Bryce Terang had a home run on Friday.
Starting point is 00:50:12 He added a steal on Saturday, had two more hits on Sunday. He is betting 325, two homers, and two steals so far through 10 games. Logan O'Hoppy has homered in four straight. He's got eight hits and eight RBI over that four game stretch. And Nico Horner is running wild. Last six games, 10 hits, six steals, six runs scored. Overall, he's betting 361 with an 8, 14 OPS, only nine games, really small sample size for all three.
Starting point is 00:50:39 But specifically for Horner, the fact that he really doesn't didn't have a spring training and he's coming back from forearm surgery. This is a really good sign. I know we were all kind of down on Terang and Logan O'Hoppy, but it has been a nice start for both of those guys as well. Yeah, one guy making us look really good for our collective faith in him and two guys making us look real dumb so far for our collective fading of them. We all, I think, like Nico Horner, Scott probably the most. But that's looking like a great pick because he missed two games and he's been awesome ever since. So that worked out about as well as it possibly could have.
Starting point is 00:51:16 Oh, Hoppy, I'm surprised how much he's playing. He has started seven of nine games so far. Yeah, four straight games with a home run. I would guess his line through the first three or four of those games was pretty bad. But, hey, that's what we're at. Yeah, I've swapped all those two catcher leagues where I drafted Darno is with my last round pick to be my second catcher. I've swapped them out for Pedro Paz now. Yeah, that makes sense.
Starting point is 00:51:43 And then Terang, I don't buy it. Like, I don't buy this being a workable approach for him. His strikeout rate is way up 28% in the early going. He is swinging the bat harder. It's still a well below average bat speed, but he is up from 66.2 miles per hour last year to 69.3, which does help explain why he is hitting the ball harder. 94 mile per hour average.
Starting point is 00:52:09 He's velocity is actually stuck. for Bryce Terang. Um, he's a max exit Velo's a little bit up, but it's still pretty low. I would guess it's career high though. He's already set a career high for Max Exit Velo by a mile and a half. I, I would guess that the increased strikeout rate probably would make it all a wash if what he's doing is sustainable anyway. Um, and I think he's still likely to be a well below
Starting point is 00:52:37 average hitter overall who you're only really rostering for steals, but it's It's nice to see a hint of upside from a hitter who we really didn't have much for. All right. Let's get back into pitching and weekend recap. We're going to go a little bit longer here. Pitchers who had great first starts and then bad second start. So Spencer Arrogatti in this one, the fastball was really good. But I didn't have anything else.
Starting point is 00:53:04 Yeah, did not have anything else working here for Arrogati. Jordan Hicks, 11 hard hits. I think when you throw the sinker that much, you could be prone to starts like, this. Brady Singer gave up some hard contact as well. Another guy who relies on that Sinker quite a bit. Tage Bradley, four walks and two homers. That's just like, you know, this is how bad Tage Bradley starts usually go. It's questionable control and, you know, he is a flyball pitcher. And Nick Povetta, the fastball was good in this one, but secondaries were kind of questionable here against the Cubs, which again is looking like one of the tougher matchups in baseball
Starting point is 00:53:38 so far for pitchers. But anything else you guys wanted to add on Pavella? Tosge Bradley, singer, Jordan Hicks, Araggetti. Bad second starts this weekend. Yeah, I mean, you could sum it up with just that's baseball, and it's one start, and at least we have a good one in the bank already to see what the other side of the coin is. But I can, at least specifically for Aragutti,
Starting point is 00:54:01 he was pitching in 38-degree weather. So I imagine he just didn't have a feel for much other than the fastball, which is not his, like, he's a guy who needs to be fading, fastball because he's at his worse the more he uses the fastball. So that's all the more reason to
Starting point is 00:54:19 give Spencer Aragetti a pass for this one. There are a lot of cold weather starts this weekend. A lot of velocity down because of it. You mentioned the Sagano start was that way. But there were a lot like that. This was the most extreme one, 38 degrees. I'll also
Starting point is 00:54:35 point out because I don't know if we're going to get to him, but Tyler Glass now was terrible today. It was raining the entire time. He was on the mound, basically. And it was really one of those where, like, they knew the rain was going to let up at some point fairly soon. I think by the end of the inning that he left, the rain had pretty much stopped. So, like Christopher Sanchez didn't get much of the rain. It was bad.
Starting point is 00:54:57 Tyler Glass now was very uncomfortable. And I think that explains everything about why he struggled in this one. I do want to just with Jordan Hicks, he's barely thrown a splitter so far. So far. and that was a really good pitch for him last year. I do wonder if there's something to, like, when he's throwing this hard, he's not as comfortable throwing the splitter.
Starting point is 00:55:20 I don't know. He only threw three of them today. Two of them were hit in play. They were both hit very hard. So maybe he also just didn't have the feel for the splitter in his first two starts, and maybe that's coming. But part of my enthusiasm for him is a mixture of the reliever version
Starting point is 00:55:37 velocity with the starter arsenal because the sweeper and splitter were both really good swing and miss pitches for him. So I do want to see more, but I remain pretty encouraged by what this stuff has looked like so far for Jordan Hanks. All right, let's get into two pitchers who are just off to bad starts so far this season.
Starting point is 00:55:54 And Corbyn Burns was at the Nationals, five innings, four runs allowed, four walks at three strikeouts. And that's really it. I mean, seven walks or two starts is just pretty weird for Corbin Burns so far. And Bryce Miller at the Giants, five and a third innings, four runs allowed, three walks, four strikeouts, and he's throwing more
Starting point is 00:56:16 curveballs this season. It's been a really good pitch for him, but fading his fastball, which was basically like his bread and butter when he first came up, and control has been a little wonky for Bryce Miller as well. Is there anything else you're seeing with those two? Are you okay leaving them in your lineups this week? Corbyn Burns, Bryce Miller? Yeah, I'm going to keep starting them, yeah. I think you need to You should try to buy low on Corbin Burns. I mean, Lozardo and something.
Starting point is 00:56:49 Try it. Try it because I still think Corbyn Burns is going to be a top 10 pitcher this season. I agree. And I will point out with Miller, the curveball, kind of a new pitch for him. I think he introduced it right at the end of June last year. And it was about a 10% usage pitch for him the rest of the way. and it was really good for him.
Starting point is 00:57:10 So that's a good start. I'm not too worried. Otherwise, it's just we don't have a super long track record for Bryce Miller. And there have been so many different versions of Bryce Miller throughout his very short career that, you know, what does, who is Bryce Miller? I think is still an open question.
Starting point is 00:57:28 He's totally talented. But, you know, you can tinker your way into and potentially out of. success at times. And I do wonder when you throw eight or nine different pitches, whatever, he might be up to that many by now. You know, it might be tough to do that consistently. All right, pitchers who are off to weird starts. And the first group includes Kevin Gosman, who had zero strikeouts against the Mets this weekend.
Starting point is 00:57:58 And he's got only four strikeouts of three walks through his first two starts of the season at the Red Sox. Pretty tough matchup. Gavin Williams at the Angels, three innings, four runs, two of those earned, three walks to five strikeouts. First start wasn't great either, obviously, after the really nice spring there for Gavin Williams. Bailey Ober, first start was terrible. Totally get that. And then here, four innings, one run, five strikeouts. Believe that was one of those cold weather starts for Bailey Ober, but just inefficient, 84 pitches over four innings. And then Roki Sasaki, better in this outing, but still limited at. the Phillies four innings, one run, four strikeouts, only through 68 pitches, and only 60%
Starting point is 00:58:41 of his pitches for strikes. So kind of weird starts for all these pitchers. Really, the main question is, are you okay starting them? I have the matchups listed for all these guys, but what do you think about like Gosman, Gavin Williams, Billy Ober, Rokie Sasaki for this week? I still view Bailey Ober as must start. I think so too. The one thing I'll mention with Ober is at the Royals. 10 career starts, 650 ERA 147. Weren't his two bad starts against them last year? I think so.
Starting point is 00:59:10 Both of them were? That sounds right to me. I think in shallower leagues, if you can get away from it, I would try to with Billy Ober. Let me double check that they both were because they may just have his number, if that's the case. I know for sure the opening day start last year was against them, and that was like...
Starting point is 00:59:27 Yeah, two of his worst starts. The second one was against the Braves last. year on September 7th of last year. But he did have a six run. He did have a six run start with five in five innings against the royals earlier in May. I don't think they have this number. I think it was just bad. It just happened that a bad over start lined up against them.
Starting point is 00:59:49 I will say as a general rule, Bailey Ober is I think clearly the best of this group. And the only one I think you just don't really think about matchups with. And I think I'll apply that. here. Everyone else, I think it's just a matchup play. Yeah, I've been very disappointed with Gavin Williams, especially so far, or just not seeing him get with so much of anything, fastball or otherwise. Again, he still hasn't brought back his best swing and miss pitch from last year, the cutter, which I know Chris has made the case that it was only something he introduced
Starting point is 01:00:28 last year out of necessity because his other pitches weren't working because his delivery was thrown off by the early season elbow injury and everything but doesn't appear that his other pitches are working that great right now either this is one where it's just like I get like either his elbow was cranky
Starting point is 01:00:47 last year or his mechanics were off I think he's talked about that and that's why he wasn't throwing the slider which had a bunch of break he was throwing that harder cutter but there's no reason he couldn't also introduce the cutter as a bridge pitch because he's so good at getting whiffs and chases. He probably needs something that can live in the strike zone a little more, though.
Starting point is 01:01:09 And I think a cutter could be a big thing for him. And it just, I don't understand the thought process here where it has to be one approach or the other when he's shown multiple different approaches. So that's frustrating from Gavin Williams. And then Kevin Gosman, you know, before we move on from Gavin Williams. he's facing the white socks this week. Yes. I would lean towards starting him. Yeah,
Starting point is 01:01:33 I agree. And then Kevin Gosman, you're the meme of the lady drinking kombucha and she's like, ugh. Mm, that's been me with Kevin Gosman since the start of the spring. When I saw his Velasios up, I was like,
Starting point is 01:01:45 hmm. And then his splitter has just been really bad since the spring. He wasn't getting good results with it at all. The movement profile's different. I think he's what he was last year, unfortunately, which is you just pray. he doesn't get blown up in any given start.
Starting point is 01:02:00 So you don't have the third reaction from the lady drinking the... Well, because I think there's four. There's actually four. Yeah, she's like... And then she ends up at... If he has an eight strikeout... If he has an eight strikeout starting at the Red Sox,
Starting point is 01:02:16 you might be making... You might get there. You might get the happy face again. See, they cut off the jiff sometimes before it gets all the way through the reactions. Kevin Gossman, by the way, you do not want to use him at the Red Sox this week. So, no, I would avoid that one.
Starting point is 01:02:29 Do not want to do that. Gavin Williams, yes, against the White Sox. Bailey Ober. I'm a little bit more, I think, tepid there at the Royals. But obviously, you drafted him as like your SP2 or SP3. And then Rokey's... His most recent start against the Royals was a one hit. Jim.
Starting point is 01:02:44 Yep. FWIW. Sasaki Home Against the Cubs. I would rather not. We're not. I got to see him make it through, what, five innings before I start him? Yeah. All right.
Starting point is 01:02:55 Next group here. Pitchers off to weird starts. DeGrom, Robbie Ray, Tanner Bybee, blown up this weekend. Tyler Glass now, you mentioned the weather there, five walks in this one. Jackson Job against the White Sox just kind of a mass start here. So yeah, what do you guys think about like using, I think we're using Glass now. Like you drafted him as your SP2 probably. But what about like Joe Bybee, Robbie Ray at the Yankees?
Starting point is 01:03:23 DeGrom, if you drafted him, obviously you're starting him. but yeah, you're probably starting by B. I lean towards starting Bibi. I lean towards starting Ray. I'm starting to Grom. Look, you don't know how many starts you're going to get at Jacob de Grom. You got to start him. But I do like at some point think we need to circle back to the,
Starting point is 01:03:41 are we sure Jacob de Grom can still be dominant throwing two miles per hour lower question? Because like the whole fantasy community kind of just slid right past that. We saw he was throwing lower. We're like, good news. And it's like, well, no, every other pit. in the world throws two miles per hour lower and we're like this will probably impact their performance somewhat he won si young's throwing at the velocity he is sure but that was that's that's why seven years ago also this is the one start where he hasn't looked dominant between regular season
Starting point is 01:04:11 and spring training so i think we're far away from asking that question i think it's just worth asking uh jacob de gron by the way at the mariners this week so yes yes we should uh very clearly have him in your lineup for that one. Jackson Job at the Twins, like if you want to use him as a SPARP in your RP spot, but in a ROTO or Categories League
Starting point is 01:04:33 where he's just an SP start for you at the Twins, I don't think so, not based on what we've seen so far. I'm not dropping him, but I'm not starting him. He's got a, like, can we get one double-digit
Starting point is 01:04:43 with game first? Yeah. At the risk of having another Chris Paddock-level disaster, I think I'd start to start Shane Smith over one-star Jackson Job in our
Starting point is 01:04:57 P slot this week. In a point, so I think that's fine, yeah. All right. Well, quickly, you wrap up with some leftovers here. I've got a bunch of hitters here. Was there any, any hitter performances that we haven't mentioned so far that you would like to mention quickly? I do just think the Carrie Carpenter one, like he's
Starting point is 01:05:13 putting up, well, his overall numbers are actually, his top line numbers are not very good, his underlying numbers. I think his average exit velocity is like 96 miles per hour right now. And he has started every game since sitting out opening day or coming off the bench on opening day they haven't faced a lefty starter since then so that explains that i think he's still a true platoon and he's just gotten a
Starting point is 01:05:35 little bit of luck there um that's the biggest one lawrence butler hit his first home run sunday but he's looked great for not having many home runs his strikeout rate this year so far is uh 11.4% actually has more walks than strikeouts. If he's doing that, I don't think he's going to do that all year for what it's worth, but if he's keeping that strikeout rate at or below 20%, it's going to be a real good season for Lawrence Butler. And then Jacob Wilson doing a lot of what we hoped he would.
Starting point is 01:06:12 He's only struck out like twice, I think, or maybe three times. You're never going to get very good quality of contact metrics, but he does seem a little more geared for getting. getting two power than Luis Arias. So I think it could be 10 plus homers and a 300 average at a best case scenario, which is pretty interesting. And then Corby and Carroll hasn't stolen a base yet. Well, that's because he's hitting everything like 94 miles per hour right now.
Starting point is 01:06:44 And he's got like seven or eight extra base hits already. So don't complain about Corby and Carol not stealing bases when he's crushing the ball. Also wanted to give a shout out to Jose Ramirez, who had a three-homer game on Friday the second time he has done that in his career. Some other pitching leftovers here. Great start from Imanaga. Max Fried picked up his first win with the Yankees. Yamamoto, his first quality start of the season. And Chris Bassett's got someone I know that you've been all over at the Mets.
Starting point is 01:07:13 Great outing here. Six and two-thirds, shutout innings, nine strikeouts, zero walks. Zero walks is key for him. Struggled with control out of nowhere last season. and he only had one start with zero walks last year. He already has done that so far this season. So I think it's a nice start for Chris Bassett. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:07:33 And allow me to remind everybody that 2021 through 2023, so the three years prior to last year, Chris Bubich averaged 14 wins, a 341 ERA, a 113 whip and 8.5K per 9. He was basically must start. That was Bassett, by the way. You said Bubich. Yeah, sorry, Chris Babbage on the brain.
Starting point is 01:07:52 I guess. Chris Bassett, though, 14, 341, 113.13, 8.5, previous three years. And I think he's, I think last year was just a misstep. And he's right back to being that guy. All right, let's get into some bullpen stuff from the weekend. And for the Red Sox on Friday, I rolled as Chapman entered with it with one out in the ninth inning. Runners on first and third, four run lead. He walked one, then got a double play for his second save. He pretty much just looks like the guy there. Chapman is 79% rostered. For the debacks on Friday, Puck entered in the eighth inning with a two-run lead facing 9-1 and 2 in the Nationals lineup they had two lefties up CJ Abrams and James Wood he gave up a hit
Starting point is 01:08:32 but nothing else and Justin Martinez got the ninth inning and picked up his first save of the season really looks like they're just going with matchups which is exactly what they said they were gonna do so yeah to start out I think somebody will and I'm leaning toward Justin Martinez eventually claiming the job outright because he's looked fantastic. Let's talk about the Phillies. This thing with Jordan Romano is not going great. On Friday, he got the ninth inning with a three-run lead.
Starting point is 01:09:02 He gave up two runs on a hit and two walks, but picked up his first save. And then on Sunday, he started the seventh inning with a two-run lead facing 9-1-2 in the Dodgers lineup. You can argue maybe that's, you know, highest leverage spot against that part of the Dodgers lineup. But he gave up a single walk, RBI double. he was replaced by Orion Kirkering.
Starting point is 01:09:23 And later on in the game, Phillies retook the lead, and Jose Alvarado pitched the ninth inning and picked up his second save of the season. I would say overall, this was probably a net negative weekend for Jordan Romano. Oh, big net negative. I think he might be done.
Starting point is 01:09:38 He might be. He might be. I'm not dropping him in those leagues where the saves are scarcest, like with those really deep roto leagues. But I am dropping him in shallower leagues, Jordan Romano, and I'm definitely prioritizing Alvarado over him.
Starting point is 01:09:55 I think maybe this is finally the year for Alvarado, as often as he's been teased as a closer in waiting. I will say just because they never seem to land on one guy, especially if that one guy is Jose Alvarado, in deeper leagues put in some flyer offers on Orion Kirkering. He's looked good. I would imagine they've got. to change up the hierarchy and I would think he's going to move into the eighth inning spot
Starting point is 01:10:26 if if romano can't be trusted and yeah his velocity was down like two and a half miles per hour in this one from his previous outing I think which was already down so yeah I think the romano experiment might have already come to an end not like officially but in our hearts it was that was uh yeah the game today was on the colder side. It was 56, but yeah, not good. For the Rangers, Luke Jackson picked up two more saves. He's down to five saves total. He's 56% rostered. So still out there in some shallower formats. I think that's a pretty clear, Jordan Romano for Luke Jackson. You can make that swap if he's available in your league. For the Pirates on Sunday, skipping down, Dennis Santana got the eighth inning
Starting point is 01:11:13 with a three-run lead facing the top of the Yankees lineup. He retired them in order. And then it was Lefty Ryan Burrucky, who got the ninth inning with a three-run lead. He gave up three runs exactly on a walk and three hits, and Pirates eventually won the game in extras. Well, at least they won. Yeah, Santana does look like the highest leverage reliever for them right now. For the White Sox, there's a whole bunch of stuff that happened here on Sunday. I'm not going to read it all off.
Starting point is 01:11:38 What you need to know is that Mike Clevenger entered in the seventh inning. I had him in a few 15 team leagues. I dropped them in all of them, too. Yeah, I was dropping them for each inning. like Tony Santian who's obviously not the red slozer. Canley, Canley, Bender, San Bernard had Bender than him,
Starting point is 01:11:56 which is about as big of a an indictment of Mike Clevenger as I could give. Yeah. For the Twins on Sunday, Yawand Duran got the eighth inning with a two-run lead facing eight, nine, and one in the Astros lineup.
Starting point is 01:12:10 So kind of interesting usage. And then Griffin Jacks got the ninth inning. He gave up two runs on three hits. He took his first bowl and saved. The twins would have eventually losing extra innings, but to me, Duran profiles is the highest leverage pitcher. I don't know if like eight, nine, and one in the Astros lineup is the highest leverage spot.
Starting point is 01:12:29 So it's just kind of weird usage, I think. I don't know if you guys felt the same way. That it is. What do you know? Yeah, I don't really know what the explanation is, but it's weird. Yeah. Yeah. But your guy, Scott, Griffin Jackson, he blew the game here.
Starting point is 01:12:45 So I don't know. Maybe they'll just go back to you on Duran. I'm excited. Yeah. No, it's hard to trust Rocco Baldelli, though. But we have seen this doesn't look like a leverage spot. Obviously, 8-9-1 against the Astros lineup. But using your best reliever in the leverage spot has backfired an awful lot already this year.
Starting point is 01:13:06 Yeah. So I don't know. The Cubs on Sunday, Ryan Presley got the ninth inning with the game tied. He gave up an unearned run on a hit and a walk. He took his first loss. And through six games, he has a 450 ERA and a 250. whip two strikeouts to six walks so it doesn't look great I would say the only thing that helps Presley is that Porter Hodge actually blew the save in the eighth inning of this game
Starting point is 01:13:29 but before Sunday Hodge has looked better than Presley on the holes so I don't know if they'll make that swap because Presley's the veteran but you know he's looked a little shaky here to start the season yeah I think neither of them has looked super great but I think Hodge has obviously looked better yeah for the Giants on Sunday Ryan Walker was unavailable Camilo DeVal got the ninth inning with a one-run lead. He gave up a run on two walks and two hits, took his second blown save, but wound up with the win
Starting point is 01:13:55 because the Giants walked it off in the bottom of the ninth. To stream or not to stream on Monday. And let's see if there's Hayden Wesniewski at the Mariners, maybe. That's an okay matchup. Casey Meisle great in his first start, but he's facing the Yankees. So, I don't know.
Starting point is 01:14:14 Matthew Liberator, a good matchup at the Pirates. Richard fits against the Blue Jays I don't know Yeah I like Mize as a two-star pitcher this week But when you're just isolating it to the single start Against the Yankees Don't like it as much
Starting point is 01:14:30 I might like Hayden Wisniewski At Seattle the most out of this group I think so too yeah Which yeah not a great sign for this group Maybe Richard Fitz Against the Blue Jays would be second Has he made just one start I think so
Starting point is 01:14:45 That sounds right. There's a couple, like, Shane Boss has only made one start. There's a couple of guys like that, yeah. Yeah. On Tuesday, we have Shane Smith at the Guardians. Ben lively on the other side. Not that I trust him,
Starting point is 01:14:58 but he's facing the White Sox. Landen Aroop gets the Reds in San Francisco. Carrasco, I don't think is very good, but he's at the Tigers. What do you think about Tuesday? I think Lively's probably the best, but that's, again, an indictment on the rest of this group. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:15:17 I guess. So you don't have any interest in Shane Smith? I think he's interesting as a two-start pitcher, but I don't think you're going to get a lot of strikeouts. So you're kind of just at the whim of the White Sox defense and the Babap gods, and that doesn't feel like a good place to be. What about Landon Rup? Just at Cincinnati.
Starting point is 01:15:43 That's the problem. No, I think it's home against Cincinnati. Oh, okay, home against Cincinnati. And their offense has been questionable. Yeah. Yeah. No, their offense just might not be that good.
Starting point is 01:15:55 Yeah. Well, it's early. They still have Ellie De La Cruz. Yeah. Yeah. Could work. I think I would probably go.
Starting point is 01:16:03 Yeah, I'd probably go Roop first. And then Smith and then Lively, I think. For Tuesday. Rup, Lively, Smith. But I think Rup is the best of that group. All right. We're going to wrap there for Scott.
Starting point is 01:16:16 Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back in tomorrow. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.

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