Fantasy Baseball Today - Differentiating Early-Round SP; Salvador Perez Deep Dive (04/20 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 20, 2020

We're taking a closer look at the starting pitchers drafted in rounds three and four but first we're deep-diving Salvador Perez (4:50). How should you value Perez coming off Tommy John surgery. Will Mike Matheny impact his value? ... Early-round starting pitchers can be very hit or miss. How do the guys feel about Patrick Corbin (15:50)? Should we be worried about the increased walk rate? ... Next up we have two of last season's breakouts in Lucas Giolito and Luis Castillo. Can they do it again (22:00)? Specifically for Castillo, he was quite unlucky in the second half. ... Two veteran pitchers drafted in this range are Clayton Kershaw and Charlie Morton. Which one would we rather have in 2020 (30:10)? ... Lastly, what went wrong for Aaron Nola plus how much should we trust Blake Snell and Chris Paddack (40:30). ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath, and Chris. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. Happy Monday, everybody.

Frank here, joined by Scott. We're back again for a two-person show. Scott, it seems like everyone's kind of turning their back on us. What's going on, man? I don't know. I don't know. No, Chris is, uh, Chris is big management material. So they're, they're constantly pulling them aside for meetings now. It's Adam. Adam is the problem.

Adam has stabbed us in the back. He said he'd be here, even, even though he wasn't hosting anymore. But then every opportunity, he turns and runs. So, you know, that's, that's a problem. That's a problem. Scott, what kind of soda we got today? You've got to have some soda. None today, none today. Though I appreciate you pointing out last week that I appear to be a big soda drinker.

That wasn't good for my timeline. No, actually, nobody gave me a hard time about that, but I occasionally get hard times for my eating habits. I drink, I probably drink about four sodas a week. I drink it as a tool. my energy level is like in terms of broadcasting energy it's a very important thing

when you're broadcasting you have to sound you have to talk you can't talk as slow as I normally do and you can't be as low energy as I normally am like energy level my 200 is like most people's 80 so I need not just that caffeine boost because I've tried just caffeine

it doesn't work as well I need the caffeine and the sugar as a way to get my energy, energy level up to a point where it's at least halfway listenable. You've piqued my interest in terms of the eating habits. People make fun of your eating habits? What's going on there, Scott? Oh.

Do I got to handle some of these people? Well, you know, we just get into conversations a lot on the podcast about, you know, preferences and cereal, like, childhood snacks, that sort of thing. thing. We're not talking about what variety of lettuce we prefer usually. So people assume I'm just like eating junk all day. I don't know. I get a lot

of grief about it. A lot, I'm probably exaggerating the amount of grief, but there are a handful of people who consistently give me grief on social media about the way I supposedly eat. This is your safe space, Scott, because I don't eat very healthy. I've been called a

picky eater. So look, man. A big chicken tenders guy. Oh, yeah. 100%. I've never heard of a picky eater who's too picky for chicken tenders, you know? There's no such thing. Yeah.

Next, it just comes down to what sauces you like with the chicken tenders. I usually go none. If I have to go with a sauce for chicken tenders or chicken nuggets, it's probably not a very good one to begin with. And so I'm having to jazz it up with something else. All right. We're going to have to agree to disagree there, Scott. but today on the show, we're going to deep dive Salvador Perez.

This was one that came in over on Twitter. Someone requested that we talk a little bit about Salvador Perez. So we'll dive in there. And I wanted to differentiate the... I wrote mid-tier starting pitchers. I guess these are still more early-round pitchers. These are guys that go in rounds three through five. It's basically that SP-10 through 19, SP-10-20 range.

And I just wanted to kind of talk through each of those pitchers and kind of differentiate those guys because it might be tough for some people to figure out who they want to take in those rounds because I've found myself struggling with ranking some of these pitchers. So if I'm struggling with it, that means somebody else out there has to be struggling with it, or so I like to think.

Later on in the show, we will answer some of your questions, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. But let's start things off with Salvador Perez who missed the entire 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. and in 2017 and 2018, he did finish as a top five catcher in both Roto and points formats. Currently, the seventh catcher off the board at pick 161. He's sandwiched right between Will Smith and Wilson Ramos. All three of those catchers are going within six picks of each other as of now.

While Salvador Perez's profile does not fit a productive points league player, all of the volume of his at-bats outweighs the lack of plate. discipline. He's like a career 297 OBP guys. So we know that about Perez. He's not going to walk all that much. And normally in a points league, you do want someone that has plus plate discipline, not going to strike out, and is going to walk a decent amount. He doesn't, but he makes up for that with how much he plays. From 2013 through 2018, he led all catchers with 3,100 at bats. And, you know, maybe he doesn't play as much behind the plate this season, but there's been talk about him, you know, playing a little bit at first base.

And I think given the Royals' first base situation, that would not be all that surprising. Honestly, I think the year off is going to help Salvador Perez here. Scott, he's someone that I like quite a bit. He made my All-Star team when we did that exercise. He's the catcher that I'm targeting, that I've drafted probably more than any other catcher so far. And there was a quote that stood out. He said, to miss a year, I know it's bad for the first time, but it helped me a lot, Perez said. Healing. It helped my body heal. it helped me heal my body.

So I think for someone who's played as much as he has, I think the year off is actually something that can help Salvador Perez. So where do you kind of fall in terms of where you've ranked him? Is he a catcher that you've been targeting? What's your kind of general take here on Salvador Perez in 2020, Scott? So I think before he had Tommy John surgery, the reputation for Salvador Perez was safe but boring, right? like you knew he was going to be a quality starting catcher for you all year

he probably wasn't going to be competing for the number one spot up there with guys like Gary Sanchez and JT. Realmuto. I have him seventh. I have him behind the five that are normally ranked at the top five in some order. Real Muto Sanchez Contreras Grundal Garver. I also have him behind Will Smith as sort of an upside play there.

my presumption is that safe but boring that's how Perez is going to return but part of what made him so safe as you referred to was just how much more he played than the average catcher to a point it was it was kind of alarming especially since he kind of developed a reputation as a guy who faded down the stretch and many speculated that was because the Royals were

playing him so much more than the typical catcher. And now that he's coming off an injury that, you know, normally, other than starting pitchers, catchers do the second most throwing, right? I mean, yep, the recovery from Tommy John surgery is probably, it's a distant second, but among all position players, catcher would be the highest second behind starting pitcher. So I think just because of that, there might be a natural tendency to sit him. more often and the fact that now Ned Yost isn't his manager, who knows if

Mike Maffini is going to push him as hard as Yost did. So if we can't count on that playing time being being significantly better than the typical catcher, is he as safe as he used to be? I don't know.

I have some doubts about that. I mean, are you pegging him for more like a 260 batting average, which he's had before, or more like a 230, 235 batting average? Because the ladder, if there are playing time concerns net there, it starts to look... I mean, I don't know that he's going to stand out that much from like a Robinson Chorinos.

That's fair. But the batting average has fluctuated a little bit with him. So 2018, he was 235, 2017. He was 268 the year before that, 247 and then 260 back in 2015. So there has been some volatility in his batting average. But I would say... Like around there, 255, close to 260. I think that's fair. He's a career 266 hitter. I would trust him for at least the baseline, the lowest it could be, is 250.

That's probably what I would project. Yeah, and just to be totally clear here, I rank him 15 spots ahead of Robinson-Curino, so I'm not saying that's what I expect Salvador Perez to be. I'm just saying there's a lot I don't know with him. So I'm kind of straddling the fence there. I think the highest I could justify moving him up is ahead of like Will Smith, if I was going to take a particularly downer view of Will Smith, which, I mean, there's a lot of reasons to be skeptical of him.

And I think maybe, you know, if Salvador Perez comes back and repeats the stat line from his last healthy year, which was a 235 batting average and 27 home runs, ADRBI. That sounds a lot like a good scenario for Will Smith, right? It's just I don't feel like I can even trust Salvador Perez to do that because there's still a lot of questions that need to be

answered coming off such a major injury and the managerial change there is something I worry about considering the way the Royals approached Salvador Perez previously was abnormal compared to the average catcher. Does it make you feel better to that?

while Mike Mathini was with the Cardinals. I mean, Yadir Malina has basically always been viewed as kind of that Iron Man catcher like a Salvador Perez where he just played so much. So the only data that we have basically is with Mike Mathini playing Yadi a lot. So, I mean, if we're trying to use that to kind of translate over into this royal situation, it seems like Salvador Perez would still play a ton, unless, of course, they're worried about that elbow injury, which you brought up. Yeah, it's...

It's a good point. I don't know that it moves me much because I have no idea what the actual relationship was like between Mike Metheny and Yadde or Molina, what kind of conversations were happening behind the scenes. And same thing with Perez and Ned Yost. I mean, I don't know how they arrived at the decision to play him that often. And I don't think it's just something where you can look at the manager's one previous stint with one other catcher and conclude he's going to handle him the same way. I don't, maybe, but it's a big unknown for me. All right, Scott, I mentioned that Will Smith, Salvador Perez, and Wilson Ramos are all going within six picks of each other right now. So in a points league, rank Will Smith, Perez, and Wilson Ramos.

In a points league, I will rank them, well, I've kind of already given it away. Will Smith, Salvador Perez, and Wilson Ramos. I want to see if I have Ramos. I actually have Carson Kelly in between Perez and Ramos. Though I've had my concerns about Carson Kelly, just as from a playing time standpoint. So that's a range of catchers, if we're counting the four,

Smith-Perez, Kelly Ramos. I can't see myself ranking Ramos first of that group. I think Ramos is pretty clear. They're either eighth or ninth, among all catchers, but, but yeah, I could be convinced to rearrange those guys a little. Yeah, Carson Kelly is probably the most interesting one of that group, and I know that, I get why you like him. There's a lot to like. I mean, he has prospect pedigree, and he kind of broke out last year. It still struggles against right-handed pitching,

mashes against lefties, but it just kind of concerns me that they brought in someone like Steven Vote, who does particularly hit right-handed pitching very well, it does kind of concern me that maybe it's not a straight-up platoon, but Carson Kelly still sits more than you would expect this season. And I wish that they would just kind of like, you know, take everything off of, you know, take the kids' gloves off, you know, let Carson Kelly just run free and, you know, play as much as he possibly can, because I think that he would be a great catcher for fantasy. but I still do have those concerns, Scott.

So those are in the back of my mind. I have him behind this group for that reason. But I think the way I have just Salvador Perez ranked the highest of that group. But again, it just comes down to like nitpick preferences between Will Smith and Salvador Perez, honestly. Yeah, that's true. Like, it's, to me, they're both kind, they're kind of on opposite ends of the risk-reward spectrum. So to me, it depends largely on what you think the potential reward is for Will Smith, how great you think the risk is for him,

and that'll determine whether or not you slot Salvador Perez before or behind him. Fair enough. Before we move on to the early round mid-tier starting pitchers that we're going to dive into here, I want to remind everybody that the NFL draft is this week, which means I can't wait to see how my New York Jets screw this one up. The Pick Six NFL podcast with Will Brinson and the gang will have comprehensive draft coverage all week long, including the latest draft buzz, prospect interviews,

gambling previews, and more. Later in the week, the guys will be reacting immediately after each day of the draft, download and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, and wherever else podcasts are found. Scott, no sports going on right now, but I guess the one thing people can look forward to is the NFL draft.

And apparently your Atlanta Falcons are looking to be very aggressive in said draft. So we'll see what happens. I have no faith in the Jets whatsoever, which is the team I root for, unfortunately. Yeah, we'll see what happens. I used to love the draft, man. I got to tell you, my enthusiasm has waned a bit just because, well, I have to be so intensely involved in baseball for this job. It kind of removes my enthusiasm for all other sports. Right.

but I will be interested in seeing what the Falcons do. Yes. We shall see. The early round, mid-tier starting pitchers, this is a very interesting group, and I kind of peg this as like a maker break point in the draft in terms of starting pitching. And what I mean by that is that

I think you probably have close to a 50% chance of either hitting or busting on this pick. I gathered some information from last year, round three and four starting pitchers. And I came up with this list of pitchers. Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Noah Cindergarde, Blake Snell, Walker Bueller, Jameson, Mike Clevenger, Jose Berrios, Jack Flaherty, and Patrick Corbyn. Those were 10 pitchers that were going round three, round four, maybe early round five. That's kind of the crew that I'm going to talk about from this year's perspective,

of this year's ADP, but that's where those pitchers were going last year in this range. And it's basically a 50% hit rate. And I was even generous. I counted Jose Berrios as a hit. He finished inside the top 30, but he didn't necessarily pay off. Like if he was drafted as a, you know, the 15th starting pitcher off the board, I mean, I don't know if you would consider that, but I was generous here. And even with that, you still had only a 50% hit rate.

So every year is different. I realize that. but that's why normally when I get to this range, Scott, I want an SP1 before I approach this, you know, round three, four, five range of starting pitchers because it just seems like there's a lot of volatility. Why would you take on more risk by having these pitchers be your SP1 and your SP2?

Normally when I get to this point in the draft this season, I already have at least one starting pitcher, whether it was a DeGrom or Cole in the mid-first or a Bueller or a Verlander or a Scherzer in the late first or early second, I normally want to have at least one SP before I get to this group that we're about to talk about. Is that how you would generally attack it as well or no? No, and I think there are a few reasons for that.

And when we get into a lot, what is actually a success at starting pitcher, what is actually the standard for a good starting pitcher? I mean, 30th overall, that's somebody's number three, right? If you're in a 15 team league, that's somebody's number two. So I don't know that you can say, look, I understand if you paid more for him, then you probably didn't draft him as low as 30, but that's still like a solid contributor at a very volatile position,

a very solid contributor at a very volatile position. So I try not to get too sticky about my expectations at starting pitcher. That's why I've kind of narrowed it down to I want four of my top 35 is because I don't know exactly how that 35 is going to shake out, but I know they all have a chance of finishing, they probably don't have a chance of finishing top five, but they all have a chance of finishing top 15. And the ones, some of them are going to be complete misses, obviously, but some of them are still probably going to be, you know, even the ones who finish in like the 30 to 45 range that's still going to be a lot better than somebody you're forced to drop and then you're

just playing the waiver wire all year at a time when it's really awful to have to do that at starting pitcher because things can go so wrong so easily so that's i forget what your original question was now but that's that's my reaction to it all right so let's start with uh patrick corbin here who you know scott has ranked as i was you know i had this available scott and then i clicked off the page You have Patrick Corbyn as your SP10, and I have him as my SP12. So not dissimilar. Last year finished as the SP15 in Roto, SP16 in fantasy points per game in points leagues, and right now he is the SP11 in average draft position at pick 35.

The pros for Patrick Corbyn, he's been very durable, three straight seasons of at least 32 starts. He's had back-to-back seasons of 200 endings. 238 strikeouts last year were 10. among starting pitchers. The skills regressed a bit, but he was still very good. He was top seven in swinging strike rate and chase rate, and he consistently gets around 50% ground balls.

The cons for Corbyn was the increase in walks. His 2.16 walks per 9 in 2018 jumped all the way to 3.12 walks per 9 in 2019. So nearly an entire walk per 9 was added last year, caused the whip to rise all the way to 1.18. And, you know, right now, based on the ADP, you're basically drafting him for his ceiling. You know, I don't think that he's going to be much better than SP12, SP10 by season's end.

But if he did that, you'd be perfectly happy with it. So in terms of Patrick Corby... I mean, what's maybe your biggest worry here for Corbyn, Scott? Is it the increased walk rate? Is it the fact that he, you know, is building up all these endings over the past couple seasons? What do you worry about with Corbyn? I don't worry about much.

It's probably a reason why I tend to draft them a lot. Great supporting cast, obviously. So many of the high-end starting pitchers, they're either coming off just one great year, like a Lucas Gialito or Luis Castillo, two guys who, well, we're getting to them next. Or they are coming off not such a great year. And we're just counting on them reverting back to previous standards.

I mean, Corbin's coming off back to back, really indisputably, high-end ace caliber type years. I mean, he got Cy Young votes in both of them. So back-to-back, I mean, that alone sets him apart from most of the pitcher pool, even at the high end. So Corbyn, I feel really good about it. I guess my biggest concern with him is just that he gets injured, but that's an underlying concern for all starting pitchers.

and it's not like it's abnormally so for him. Yeah, Lucas Gialito, you mentioned the name there. He was kind of the next one. I just wanted to compare a little bit here to Corbyn. He's only done it for one season. Look, there's no doubting that. And when we kind of talked about who could potentially be this year's Trevor Bauer, Lucas Gialito was the name that I brought up

because he's only really done this for one season. I mean, remind you that back in 2018, Giolito was statistically one of maybe the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. But last year did manage to finish as SP 13 in both formats. And right now his ADP is at SP 18, pick 54 off the board. It's a bit scary. But last year, he completely reinvented his mechanics,

saw increased velocity, developed this ridiculous change-up. He's still just 25 years old and does have prospect pedigree. His ERA in the second half last year, Scott, went up to 3.76. But his skills actually got better. 12.7K per 9, 2.2 walks per 9, and a 29.1% K minus walk percentage. That was fourth best in the second half last year. And that was better than Jacob de Grom,

Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, Walker Bueller, all pitchers that are being drafted in the first or second round. He gains Yasmani Grandaal as his pitchframer. I think everything is set up there for, and you could just see by the way I'm talking, the way I'm framing Gialito is in such a positive, light because I just think that everything is there. I think the skill is there. I think, you know, if he can maintain what he showed last year that we have legitimate top 10, maybe

even top five starting pitcher potential here in Gileo, Scott. Yeah, this is another reason why I have difficulty getting too precise in my assessments for these pitchers. I guess I guess I could say this about every single one and you're going to be like, why did I choose to do this exercise with this guy? I don't know. But like, Lucas G. Because so many of them have such a small track record,

Lucas G. Lito, of course, has just the one year. I don't feel like I can say with great precision what his weaknesses are. I mean, the biggest concern with him, if we're just talking concerns, risk factors, is that it was all a big fluke, right? And he goes back to normal.

Maybe he can't sustain the velocity gain. Whatever. But digging deeper into the staff, Like, even if you want to point out, okay, his ERA was 60 points higher in the second half than the first half, as you brought up. When you're talking about the small sample of appearances that a pitcher has in half a season, like 60 points on ERA, that's almost meaningless to me. Like, that's the difference between things going a little differently or one or two of his starts, you know, 60 points of ERA in half a season's time. It's almost meaningless to me. So I, like you, I see the potential for really high ceiling here,

like upper echelon strikeout potential for Lucas G. Lido. But there's, just because he's only done at the one year, there's more risk than for a lot of these guys as well. In that second half, he made 12 starts. He went at least six innings pitch in 11 of them. So even depth was something he was giving fantasy owners, which definitely helps in a points league. And we're going to do this at the end. Once we kind of go through this list of 10 starting pitchers, Scott, I'll ask you,

you know, which five you've kind of wound up with the most this season throughout drafting. And Gialito is definitely one for me. I understand the downside for him. I just, I can't ignore what the upside can be for Gialito just based on the skills that he presented last year. And I think something similar could be said about Luis Castillo. SP 14 in Roto last year, SP 18 in fantasy points per game in points leagues. He's currently the SP 13 in average draft position

going off the board at pick 42. Like Gileo, numbers went up in the second half. It's a little bit misleading. The first half, a 229 ERA 108 whip. second half 478 ERA 1-22 whip but he lowered his walks tremendously in the second half

and was unlucky with his strand rate and his home run to fly ball ratio so if anybody is worried about the second half I would say don't be because you're missing out on a potentially profitable situation where Luis Castillo is going right now Scott yeah so we're talking about like a two and a half point difference on ERA from the first half and second half,

obviously much more significant than what we were talking about with Gioledo. But you bring up a good point that when he was delivering that 229 ERA in the first half, it was like, okay, Luis Castillo, he's going to have to regress some. He's walking too many guys. He stops walking so many guys in the second half,

and his ERA blows up. So he took care of the skill issue that was causing people to doubt him and yet the numbers regressed even harder than anyone was imagining. So that's that's noteworthy. Let me also point out for Castillo that by the ways I typically evaluate pitchers anyway, if we're talking about the FIPP measurements, right, home run rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, the three areas of pitcher can most control.

but we go to the next level, the numbers that most influence each of those three numbers. It's for me, swinging strike rate, ground ball rate, strike rate, throwing strikes. Castile was top five in two of those three last year

for the full season, swinging strike rate and ground ball rate, I think he might have been first. Let me double check that. Because ground ball rate, normally the guys who are leading the league in that, not bat missers at all. They're guys like Dallas Keikle and Marcus Stroman, not guys we think of who are any help of being any

help in strikeouts. But Castillo with his 11 strikeouts per nine or whatever it was, it was 10.7. He was number two in ground ball rate. In between two of those guys who we think of striking out, nobody, Dakota Hudson and Brett

Anderson. So, I mean, like, he's so good at keeping the ball on the ground. In a park where it's especially valuable to be able to do that. I mean, obviously, we don't know if that's the park. The Reds are going to be playing in this year, but it's worth bringing up.

It's normally a hitter's park. Yeah, I mean, Castillo stands out so much in two of those three areas that it's, it makes it, it makes it hard for me to believe he's going to be anything less than good. Almost no matter what his walk rate looks like, you know? Yeah, and you bring up the strike percentage, Scott, something that I like to look at a decent amount when evaluating pitchers is first-pitched strike percentage. So pitchers that can establish the strike zone early and throw strikes early in the count,

which helps them, you know, later on when they can take advantage, they can throw pitches outside the strike zone to try and get people to chase pitches. In that second half, his first-pitch strike percentage went up about 9%. So, again, everything just kind of supports that. He was frankly unlucky, and we see, you know, there are stretches, there could be long stretches where in terms of pitching with men on base, you just kind of fall unlucky where maybe a reliever comes in and gives up a hit and those runs are kind of counted towards Luis Castillo.

But yeah, the home run to flyball ratio in the second half, 23%. Just seems like he was a bit unlucky. So Luis Castillo, don't buy too much into what you see on the surface when it comes to the second half numbers. Clayton Kirsham, I haven't heard your thoughts on Clayton. Kirschild yet, Scott. So I'm frankly pretty interested here. Last year, finished SP11 in Roto, SP6 in fantasy points per game. And as a result, he's currently the ninth starting pitcher off the board in ADP going at pick 33. So he's actually going higher than any other pitcher we're going

to talk about today, going inside the first three rounds just ahead of Patrick Corbyn. And, you know, I want to say that I'm sorry that I ever doubted Clayton Kirschau because I did. I doubted him last year, the injuries. I had no shares of him, except I'm about to do it again. I'm about to doubt Clayton Kirschall again here in 2020. 303-ERA, 104 whip. It was a great bounceback. He still has not pitched more than 178 in four straight seasons, and I don't want to act like there's no chance that the back injury can't just flare back up, because I do think that there's a possibility of that happening. And his 42% hard, contact rate was the seventh highest among starting pitchers. And, you know, just when comparing him

to the next pitcher we'll talk about after this, Charlie Morton, I don't understand why if you can get Morton a round or maybe even two rounds later than Clayton Kirchow, why you would ever just not take that discount. But before we get to Morton, what do you have on Kirshaw, Scott? Is he someone that you're targeting? You said that you kind of bought back in last year once his ADP started going too far the other way. Will you be in again here in 2020? I don't love drafting Clayton Kirchall. I was with you, though, last year. We talked about it on a show last week.

I originally had Clayton Kirchall's one of my bus picks. Then he got hurt in spring training, and everybody was so scared of him that the discount was just too great. And I ended up with a lot of shares of Clayton Kirchall. It worked out pretty well for me. But the main thing I would say about Clayton Kirschall is my concerns for him were two-pronged. He had missed parts of four. straight seasons, I think it was, with back issues.

And we saw a pretty sharp skills decline in 2018. Well, he reversed that skills decline last year. K per 9 was 1 per 9. His swinging strike rate was back up actually to, well, a big improvement from 2018 anyway. Second lowest still.

But it was back up from 2018. and he didn't miss time with a back injury. The time he missed came at the start of the season. It was because of his shoulder. Once he came back, he did not miss any more time, and it wasn't for the back. Like you said, I don't know that we can assume the back injury is behind him. It's still been a long time since we've seen him throw even 180 in a season,

much less 200. But that he didn't have to shut down for part of the season in the middle of it, I think was encouraging because some of what I was reading for medical experts were suggesting that was just going to be necessary for him to to manage his back. Like he was always going to have to sit out part of the season. So just the consecutiveness of his 29 appearances, 28 starts, set a lot to me in addition to the bounce back of skills.

I still have some concerns given his age, given the fact he doesn't throw his hard, that the skills could drop off again. And that's why I'm not excited about drafting him. But I'm not fearful of drafting him like I was last year. He showed us a lot. Clayton Kirshall did, I think. Scott, you mentioned that the back injury isn't necessarily behind him. I think we can confidently say that it is behind him, right?

Because it's on his back. It's above his behind. If we want to get super technical. We actually have a new ERA indicator stat. We mentioned FIP, X FIP, a decent amount. Sierra's another one. There's a new one on, I don't know how new it is, actually, but they just started displaying it on his on statcast pages and on baseball savant. They have expected ERA. And what that looks at is it takes all of the stat cast batted ball data against the pitcher

and kind of comes up with a formula of what their expected ERA should be. And last year, Kershaw had a 303 ERA, and I mentioned the hard contact that he allowed. And the statcast expected ERA was 378. So it does support some, that there should have been more regression for Kershaw than actually was let on based on the type of contact that he allowed last season. So keep that in mind, again, look, if these are things we're going to hold against Shane Bieber, because we mentioned the hard contact rate against Beaver, I think it's something we have to also hold accountable for someone like Clayton Kershaw. Charlie Morton, however, is basically the counterpart to Kershaw because he's also in his mid-30s. he's up there in age, and I am bullish on Charlie Morton this season, Scott.

I have him ranked as my SP10. So, you know, probably the highest you will see him ranked in the industry, air quotes, in the fantasy baseball industry. But I am very bullish on Charlie Morton, maybe probably more so in a Roto League, because I still think there are some question marks about his durability. I would say that's probably his biggest downside last year, 194 innings pitch were the most of his career. But if you just look at the production that Charlie Morton has given you over the last three seasons, a 324 ERA during that span, 10.7 Ks per 9, and a 49% ground ball rate.

So, Scott, this is something you mentioned with Luis Castillo, where normally it's one or the other, right? Like, you'll get a pitcher who gives you a lot of strikeouts. They don't necessarily give you all these, get all these ground balls. But when you can marry those two things together, that is something that could just be so beneficial to a starting pitcher. And if you're just looking at Kirshaw versus Morton last season, Morton 11 case per nine, nine and a half for Kirshah. 0.7 home runs per nine for Morton. It was double that. It was 1.4 home runs per nine for Clayton Kirshaw. The underlying number is a 2.81 Fip for Morton, a 3.86 Fip for Clayton Kirsha. I just think Charlie Morton's better, Scott,

and he's going behind Clayton Kirschau, which seems like, again, a very easy, profitable situation, at least for me. I think it's perfectly possible Charlie Morton is better. And I don't, I don't, I'm not personally that fearful of drafting him. But let's not overstate, or sorry, I'm having trouble getting this out. Let's not understate how big of an outlier last year was for Charlie Morton. First of all, he's 36. All right, he's up there with Verlander and Scherzer and age.

We talk about it all the time with those guys. For some reason, we don't talk about it with Charlie Morton, even though he was talking retirement after this upcoming season. That's something that he has talked about. So he's pretty old. And unlike Verlander and Scherzer, last year's 194 and two-thirds innings for Morton, usually we think of for an ace

the threshold being like 200. He came pretty close 194 and two thirds. That was a career high though. His previous career high 171 and two thirds for the pirates in 2011 when he was a completely different kind of pitcher, more of a ground ball specialist than a bat miss there.

2011 is a long time ago obviously and so that means last year was the first time Morton got to even 180 innings, much less 200. So yeah, I think for a 36-year-old doing something that unprecedented innings-wise, durability has to be a major concern.

But at the same time, I feel like part of the issue was the previous two years with the Astros. They were just so pitching rich that they didn't ask him to accumulate that many innings. And if the rays are willing to do that with him, I would guess they're going to do it again. And as long as he doesn't get hurt, he can probably get around 200 innings.

But that's, you know, that's obviously me just theorizing and there's not any concrete evidence of that. If the innings are there, those skills, if the innings are there and he stays healthy, skills-wise, I do think Charlie Morton is a clear ace. And for the price, you know, I think it's pretty easy to get him as your number two, maybe even your number three.

Now, part of the reason, and I've mentioned this a few times before, part of the reason I would take Clayton Kirshaw ahead of Morton is because I know that's the only way I'm going to get both, right? You need, I'm looking for a certain number of starting pitchers, so I kind of have to just go with the flow to make sure I get as many as I want. If I was just targeting one starting pitcher, yeah, I'll wait for the best bang for the buck. But this is a position where you can't necessarily do that. That's a fair point.

If you do want both of those guys, say you start hitter hitter in your draft and you want to take two pitchers and you're, let's say you have a mid-third round pick, you should take Kirschaw first and then more than likely, I mean, based on ADP, you should be able to get Charlie Morton in the fourth round. So I would agree with you there. But if, honestly, if I'm just deciding between the two

and I already have another starting pitcher and I'm just looking for my SP2 in a vacuum, I would take Charlie Morton, just because I do expect him to be better based on the skills that we saw last year. And you're right about the durability. That's my biggest concern with him. I think you can make that argument for a lot of pitchers, obviously,

that are being drafted this early. But yeah, I mean, just look, what he did last year with the juice ball in the AL East is just, it was so impressive. And for that, you know, I've kind of boosted Charlie Moreen up my board a little bit here. But definitely concern a little bit older than some of these pitchers that we're talking about, like Aaronnola,

who is... Not nearly as old as Charlie Morton, but last year had his own struggles. SP 26 in Roto, he was tied for SP 30 and fantasy points per game with Michael Pineda. Remember that guy? Michael Pignada. That's who Aranola was tied with last season. He's currently SP 14 in terms of ADP, going off the board at pick 45, so close to the end of round four.

Scott, what in the... I don't have like a beat button yet, but I probably should just put one on my board because this is like the perfect time to ask, like what in the bleep, what in the blank happened to Aranola last year? You know, the easiest answer seems like walks, but like how did we get to this point, Scott?

I mean, it just seemed like it all kind of snowballed for Aranola in 2019. Yeah, he was always such a good control pitcher too, so 3.6 BB per 9 for him. It's especially odd. I think it's probably, it was probably within his range of outcomes, though. I mean, kind of a worst outcome, worst possible outcome for him. It looked something like this.

If you want to break it down more, in a more baseball way, I guess, as opposed to just theoretical statistics, then part of the issue, like, well, part of what really messes up this assessment is he had about. September, right? Because if you just, for a while it was looking like, okay, let's take April out for Aranola. Something was clearly off there. And then, so May through August, he had a 296 ERA. It looked basically like the Aranola we saw in 2018. But then since he had a bumpy September, that kind of throws a wrench into that whole argument. If we are just talking about April, then we saw this throughout the league. Tons of ace caliber pitchers struggled in April. If the seam heights were lower,

makes perfect sense. They were adjusting to a different feel on the baseball. It was affecting their pitches and ways they didn't really foresee. And so they struggled to adapt to it. I think that's a perfectly reasonable argument for the early season struggles. And maybe just the September struggles were just

a fluke that happened to come at a time where he didn't. You know, there wasn't another chance to correct from it. So that's kind of how I've been breaking down Aaronola's season. For being kind of a worst-case outcome, it was still pretty decent season for him. I mean, through a lot of innings,

had a sub-4 ERA, 12-7 record, certainly decent. The strikeout rate was actually a career high. I mean, 202 innings, 229 strikeouts. Those are both thresholds. You're not seeing many pitchers reach. So I understand, given that you drafted him as a top-10 pitcher, it was underwhelming, but I have a hard time calling somebody like Aeronola a bust

because he was somebody you still were banking on at a very difficult position to fill virtually all season long. Yeah, for me, it was just such a weird season all around. I mean, even his home road splits, a 291 ERA at home, a 519 ERA on the road for someone that pitches in Citizens Bank Park, which is regarded more so as a hitters park than a pitchers part. It was just all around just a weird season for Nola.

His hard contact rate went from 25% in 2018 to 41.9%. And we did see hard contact just spike all throughout baseball. But, I mean, a near 17% increase, I don't know that that's what we were factoring in there. And the last point I'll make on Nola is that his fastball regressed again. He typically does not have a good fastball. He's known for his curveball. It's his best pitch.

The change-up is a solid one. But outside of 2018, his fastball has been a less than league average pitch. It's been quite a bad fastball. And last year, it went back to being a really bad pitch once again. So, Aaron Ola, this is one of those pitchers where in terms of kind of differentiating these guys, he's been one of the harder ones for me to figure out. And as a result, I really don't target him. And I don't have a lot of shares just because I'm not willing to find out with him.

on my team if last year was like a fluke or anything. The other two pitchers I really did want to get to, we've spoken a lot about Darvish recently, so I don't think we need to get too far into him. And Zach Granky kind of just is who he is. I did want to get to Blake Snell and Chris Paddock, because Blake Snell, we know what his upside is. We saw it two years ago.

I mean, that's literally like his 99th percentile outcome was his Sigh-Young season. And then last year, broken toe early on. had left shoulder fatigue, had an elbow injury in July. He had a cortisone shot in his pitching elbow this year on February 29th. So basically all the warning signs are there for Blake Snell Scott. But the first 11 starts last year, I will remind you, he had a 306 ERA with a 19% swinging strike rate, which is as good as it comes, but it still seems like all of the warning signs are there

when we had these for like Chris Sale, Severino, those unfortunately came to fruition, it seems like we have those same warning signs for Blake Snow. Yeah, I have massive durability concerns for Snow, because even the year he was winning the Say Young, 2018, he did so with 180 and

two-thirds innings. And was, you know, that's less than six innings per star. There weren't many starts where he was going past six innings. Like the race handled him very carefully and that's going to limit his ceiling in and of itself and then last year even more so for the for the 23 starts he did make just a lot of early hooks for Blake Snell he's not a very efficient pitcher on top of just the raise being extra cautious he can get those pitch counts up pretty high a lot of strikeouts a lot of walks too

and then when you factor in the potential that he may still be contending with elbow issues I mean, yeah, that's a lot of risk factors. This is a range of starting pitchers where, again, I don't like to, I don't, I'm hesitant to get too nitpicky about what I like about them because I feel like there's just not enough of a track record to really know exactly who they are

just to have some kind of vague idea of their upside. And so I'm mostly downgrading guys because of risk factor. And I feel like Snell has a lot of, lot more than most. Yeah, definitely fair. And, you know, I've kind of pointed that out in my rankings. I mean, the way that I've ranked, Blake, now I have SP 18, which is probably lower than most, but I just think in terms of the risk, Scott, you kind of hit on it there. Chris Paddock is another one that's kind of interesting in terms of, I think his biggest risk is you don't know what the

innings jump would be, and especially now that we don't really know what the season is going to be, that's even harder to figure out for Chris Paddock, you know, what his innings jump would be last year, came in at about 140, close to 141, innings pitched. But, you know, how much is he going to build off of that this season? Last year, he was SP 28 in Brodo. He was SP 29 in fantasy points per game in points leagues.

He is the SP 17 and 80P going off the board at pick 53. He's another one where gave up a lot of hard contact. his fan graft's hard contact was 42%. His hard contact on baseball savant was 32%. So I know that they kind of used two different formulas to measure their hard contact between fan graphs and baseball savant, but his hard contact was lower on baseball savant and his expected ERA was actually closer to his actual ERA

on baseball savon. And again, that measures quality of contact against. You know, what he lacks in swing and miss, Scott, I would say that he makes up for in command because I think he has some of the best command already as a starting pitcher in the league. Great fastball change-up combination. I think ultimately what it comes down to

is the development of the curveball. I think if the curveball is just an adequate pitch, Scott, we're looking at Chris Paddock as a potential top-10 starting pitcher. I think it all just comes down to that curveball. So you're just introducing me to this XERA stat on baseball savant, another way of estimating what ERA should have been based on other data. X-PIP and Sierra are the ones cited most often.

Well, I guess FIP is cited most often, but, you know, for those digging even deeper than that. And this could be a game changer because part of my hesitance to get fully behind Chris Paddock was he had a 405 ex-PIP last year. he had a 383 Sierra, this XERA is 328. That's a big difference what they're estimating. Baseball Savon is estimating his ERA should be versus the other ones.

And I feel like I know a lot more about the underlying data for baseball savant. I think it might be a more trustworthy metric. It's just too early to say, obviously the moment I'm being introduced to it. But that's interesting. My hesitations for Chris Paddock were threefold. It was what the expected stats looked like for him. It was the fact that he was fly ball pitcher, vulnerable to home runs,

and that he has only two pitches. You're bringing up the curve ball. Yeah. A worthy breaking ball would make a big difference to me with Paddock, because right now he's basically just leaning fastball and change up. That tremendous change up he has. So that's, I would say I'm still more worried about Paddock than the average fantasy baseballer is.

He seems to be kind of a trendy pick in this range. And I think maybe people aren't factoring in enough of the downside. But this is an interesting discovery with the expected ERA because it puts him among the league leaders in that newly developed category. Scott, what are you having for lunch today? I already had it. I was going to say, you want to grab some lunch after this and potentially change some of our rankings? Because after our discussions, I want to move Clayton Kershaw down a little bit.

And maybe you want to move Chris Paddock up a little bit because you currently have him at SP19. And I don't know, I feel better about Paddock now. And I just feel a little bit more hesitant about Clayton Kershaw. So maybe we have a date with our rankings here after this episode end, Scott. But the time... I want to spend some time reviewing this XERA, see what the leaderboard looks like and everything.

That might make for a... I might make for a column idea in the future, we'll see. There you go. I know we were trying to figure out what's a right about. Not we. Well, you, Scott, you were trying to figure out what's right about Friday. So maybe XERA is something that you can look into

and maybe even explain it more to me because I think I have it down, but, you know, when it comes to baseball analytics, when you think you have it, you know, things kind of throw a curveball at you here. Which are the five pitchers that we talked about today, including Granky, which we didn't really get into, and Darvish, which are like this group of 10,

it's like 10 through 19. Which of those five, choose five of those 10 pitchers that you are most likely to draft based on how much you trust them, you know, in terms of value where you get them. It doesn't necessarily just have to be like the way you have them ranked. But yeah, which are the five. that you're most likely to draft. Corbyn, Gialito,

Nola, Morton, Darvish. Probably it, be it. I'm actually not ending up with that much Zach Grinkey this year, even though that he's been kind of one of my guys for the past few years. Yeah, I'm going to say, Corbin, Gialito,

Nola, Morton, and Darfish. Notice how I got the T in there from Morton? Really self-conscious about saying that now, even though it was you that was being picked on. We're getting a lot of emails about it. I didn't think it was going to be this popular of a conversation, but it turned out to be pretty popular. We have three of the same there. Morton, Gileto, Corbin, are three that I've been targeting in that third, fourth round range.

I also do like Luis Castillo and Chris Paddock quite a bit. So I'm going to move those guys ahead of Clayton Kirshaw on my rankings. You know, put your money where your mouth is. Put your Put your money where your rankings are? Would that make sense, Scott? No, probably not. Put your money where your rankings. All right, I'll figure it out. But emails, I want to get to a few emails here at the end of the show.

Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com. Continue to send in some of your deep dives via Apple podcast review as well. This one comes from Jason in San Jose. I thought this was such an interesting comment here, Scott. Great trade etiquette discussion. It reminded me of when I created a Gmail account to send a fake your trade. has been accepted email to a manager who kept sending me terrible trade offers. The email looked exactly like the automated email CBS sends out when a trade has been accepted,

including the wording, font, and layout. The address was even the same, other than the Gmail at the end. Two minutes after I sent it to the manager, he emailed me and said, Hey, I saw you accepted the trade, but I don't see it on the website yet. Can you investigate? I told him what I had done, and needless to say, he was not a good. happy. A lot of expletives were thrown my way. The problem was I didn't really know the guy. He was a friend of a friend of a friend whom I'd never met. I highly recommend this tactic to your

listeners. Just make sure they know the person. Enjoy. What was gained from this? It sounds like you put in a lot of effort to make this fake email only to reveal very soon afterward that it was fake email and you upset the guy. Like I don't. I love this, Scott. It is so devious. It is You know, I think it will stop the owner from sending you bad trades, or at least that would be my hope. That would be my motivation behind it, which would be let me do something so ridiculous as to make a fake Gmail account to troll this guy

to kind of give him a taste of his own medicine, and hopefully if it works, then he'll stop sending you bad trade offers. I mean, that would be how I would look at it. I guess. Maybe I don't play with enough trolls anymore. I don't know. The biggest troll I play with is Heath Cummings. You think Heath would fall for that? Would I fall for that? The fake email?

Do you think Heath would fall for it? No, and Heath's not a troll when it comes to trades. He's just, I call him the master troll on Twitter sometimes because he's pretty masterful at it. This next one's from Bill. Dear Bob, Phil, Wallace, and Peter. Now, I feel like Wallace. I did look this up before the show, and I had zero success of finding out who it was.

Bob Phil Wallace Peter. I feel like Wallace should be the giveaway, but... Yeah. I've got nothing. I was listening to several of the podcast episodes back to back, and I thought of a couple questions. I'm in a 14-te-head categories, Yahoo League with Daily Moves, and I found that reverse sparps...

We're getting a lot of question about reverse sparp, so I actually found a few more of these that you can actually use in CBS leagues, that they're pretty valuable. Do you know any late-round RPs that would fit the bill? and be good. So, including the ones that we mentioned last week, Scott, I found a few more.

Diego Castillo was one we brought up. Ryan Stanick was one we brought up. I think Ross Stripling is someone who has starting pitcher eligibility, expected to pitch out of the bullpen. He might bounce back and forth a little bit, but at least to start the season, he would be a reliever. Chad Green is another one.

And maybe the best of the bunch, just in terms of what he's going to give you with strikeouts and ERA and WIP. And, you know, he made a ton of starts last year as an opener. Ryan Stanick. Drew Pomeranz is another one who had a phenomenal second half. Matt Strom had upside in the past. He wasn't really good last season.

And then Nick Povetta was the other one, which we brought that name up in the past, Scott. That was the, you know, who went what route? It was him and Bieber that were drafted in the same range. Shane Bieber is now a second round pick. Nick Povetta is now undrafted and in the bullpen for the Phillies. So take with that what you will, Scott. Yeah, no, that's the, Shane, not Shane Green, Chad Green and Drew Pomerantz, those are both,

those are both in deeper leagues where middle relievers have value just for the ratios. They're both getting some traction. So to know that they're starting pitcher eligible as well for the formats where it matters, that's a good thing. His second question, I'm fairly new to fantasy baseball, but already no one wants to trade with me

because they say my offers are garbage. Well, that's not nice. But one of the longtime managers hoses other managers on a regular basis with bad trades. How do I, and this is an interesting question, Scott. I don't know if we have the answer, but we'll try. How do I gain the charisma necessary

to perform this feat? It's an interesting question. And or how do I sabotage that manager so he doesn't get all the value from trades? Well, I don't know that you can sabotage that manager. It's not uncommon to hear that your offers are garbage. That's just kind of something you have to develop thick skin against. It still hurts my feelings a little when I hear it,

but you just have to know it comes with the territory. I mean, I don't tell other people their offers are garbage, but there's always going to be people who would just respond to trade proposals that way. So you've got to get used to it. And maybe that is the answer, that it's just, your offers aren't actually garbage, it's just something they tell you as a negotiating tactic, so you don't really have to change your behavior at all. But I do wonder if there might be any merit here to making like a low-end bad trade, like intentionally making a trade that you don't see yourself as the winner on, but isn't really,

going to hurt your outlook either. Like, it's just, it's somebody you can do without, but you're taking somebody who most people would recognize is worse for him. Like, I wonder if there's any merit to that. I've never done anything like that before, so I honestly don't know, but it doesn't seem like a crazy idea

if you're really having that much trouble, if people are having that much trouble taking you seriously. That's something that came to my mind as well, just in the back there, where, you know, it could be a lower entry, a player that doesn't have much value in your team, maybe a bench player. That was something I thought of as well.

So I think we're kind of on to something here, Scott. I like that idea of making a trade just to show other owners that you're capable of making a trade, even if it doesn't look like you are the clear winner so that you can entice other people to make trades where you could take advantage. Ooh, we're getting somewhere, Scott. I like this.

This next one's from Dave in Ontario. Wondering if any of the following get a bump in a category's League with OPS or just looking for the highest upside because I'm looking at taking two of these guys for my bench in a six by six categories league. Scott, I don't know if you're watching the last dance, which is a 10-part documentary series on Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls, but I'm about to serve you up with a slam dunk. I'm about to, this is the easiest question you've ever gotten in your life, Scott. So I'm serving you up the alley-up. Which of these players, Scott White, Gio Orshella, Andrew McCutcheon, Diaz, who didn't include which Diaz?

Which Diaz do you think that would be? Because I was like... Probably Yandi. Yandi Diaz. Okay. My brain started going crazy places like, a lead miss Diaz? Like, why would he be here? Yassio Pueig, Elvis Andrus, Mark Kana, Shinsu Chu, and Dansby Swanson.

Let's see how well I know Scott White. Is this a slam dunk for him like I have painted? Yes. It's a slam dunk. I am taking Mark Kana to the house. And another one? Oh, I knew. Because he asked for two.

Let's see. Giorchella. Yeah. I have to look at that. I have to look at it out a little harder. It's a slam dunk. That's what I figured. Yeah.

Yeah. It's Giorcella and Markana. Until Yasio Puik signs, I would take, I would take Urchella over him. Yeah. There you go, Scott. I am your... I guess there wasn't really a point guard on that Bulls team. It was just kind of like Jordan and Scotty Pippen.

But that was my Pippen. BJ Armstrong, right? Yeah. But I guess he wasn't really behaving in ways that a point guard normally would. He wasn't a ball distributor so much. That was my pipin to Scott's MJ right there. So that was an easy one. That was a slam dunk.

And that is where we are going to end today's show. Thank you all for listening fantasy baseball today. Hope you have a happy Monday for Scott and Frank. We will talk to you. again on Tuesday. Bye-bye.