Fantasy Baseball Today - DO NOT DRAFT: Hitter Edition (05/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 19, 2020

Today on the show we're revealing the hitters we typically avoid in 2020 but first, Adam explains how to identify those hitters. Catcher is generally a lackluster position but who are we avoiding there (3:37)? Both players actually come from pretty potent offenses. ... At first base, we're mostly avoiding power bats (7:48). Adam isn't buying in on one of Frank's favorite hitters. ... Why should you avoid Whit Merrifield this season (17:19)? ... At third base, Scott and Frank agree on Kris Bryant (23:34). Adam is out on Rafael Devers as a third-round pick. ... Of course, Manny Machado is a popular answer at both third base and shortstop (27:14). Frank once again tries to defend Machado. Carlos Correa is somebody who's consistently dealt with injuries and that can hurt you more with a shortened season. ... Who are the outfielders you shouldn't draft in 2020 (38:57)? ... Why is Adam out on Victor Robles. The guys also seem split on what to do with Eloy Jimenez. ... We wrap up with a brief conversation on Joey Gallo and why Chris hasn't typically drafted him (55:11). ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, at the wall, grand slam. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

What's going on, everybody? Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on this Tuesday, May 19th. And today on the show, we're revealing our do not draft teams for the 2020 season. We've already put together our all-star fantasy rosters with who we were targeting at each position. Now it's time to do the exact opposite. Pocket Aces. Adam Azer is here with us. He is returning back to the show.

And Adam, knowing who not to draft is probably just as important in knowing who to draft. So how do you normally go about figuring out players? that you should avoid in fantasy baseball. Easier question to answer now that I had to make this team of players, I'm not going to draft. Well, was last season an outlier? This is not an automatic, you know, no, but that's one way to start.

Most importantly, I think is can you get equal value later in the draft? You know, are you making a mistake in ADP, basically? And this is a head-to-head points exercise we're doing. So if that's the case, is plate discipline a problem? That's another thing you can look at. So what does the player have to fall back on if statistically doesn't have a great season? If the plate, you know, like let's say the home run to fly ball rates lower or something and he regresses in steals like a Whitneryfield, guys who have better plate discipline, have a safer profile in that format. So for me, it was last season an outlier.

Can you get equal value later in drafts saying the word value funny? And is the plate discipline a problem? Those were the three, I think, common themes that I looked at in the players I was avoiding. All seem fair points here, especially with the head-to-head points roster. Chris and Scott are also here. What's going on, fellas? How are you guys doing? Good.

I'm good. Do you want to know what I looked at? Sure. What do you got, Scott? No. Fine. So let me just preface it by saying, of course, for the right price, I'm willing to draft anybody, which means the biggest factor for me is where they,

tend to go and whether or not I think it's worth it, which is kind of what Adam mentioned. It's a question of, do I think the downside is too great at the place they're going, or do I think the upside is too low at the place they're going? Like, I'm going to be able to find somebody comparable later. And that's basically it. Okay. So basically my second thing that I said, can you get the value later? Yeah. I think value. the word that Adam said weird to start the show apparently is what we should focus on here because when I sent you guys the rundown last night,

I said I would focus more on players you wouldn't draft at their current cost because, as Scott mentioned, and I think it's a fair point, I think everybody has a price. And you reference us a lot, Scott, with last year when it came to Clayton Kirschaw that it went too far the other way

to the point where he became a value. So I would agree with that where there's a price that you are willing to pay for, any player. So I would like to focus more so on the cost that we're paying for said players this upcoming season. And that's the reason why we're typically avoiding said players. We haven't heard from Chris yet. Let's just kind of jump right in because typically when we construct these teams, we spend a lot of time at each position. So I want to jump right in with the catcher position. And Chris, who is the catcher that you are avoiding here in the 2020 fantasy baseball season?

So one of the things I will say to preface all of this is as the fantasy baseball community as a whole gets sharper, it becomes a lot harder to do exercises like this. It's easy to find guys I like. It's a lot harder to find guys who are just like seemingly blatantly poorly priced. And there are a few. But catcher's actually a position, I think, where it's pretty hard to come up with a good answer. So the one I came up with was Will Smith, who has a 160.2 ADP, which actually seems pretty reasonable, except he's a six catcher off the board. And I like Will Smith, but it's not necessarily a profile that is super conducive to fantasy. It's good walk rate, probably low batting average, some pop.

And that's all well and good, but it does. doesn't feel like, you know, a top tier or second tier catcher. I think there's a lot being put into his age, although he's not super young. I think he's 25 or 26. And there is not, and I think there's probably too much being put into the power search he had in the majors last season. I don't think the power profiles in question. He's actually my choice too. I just think that's all he brings to the table. And there's so much batting average downside because of how much he strikes out,

because of how much he sells out for power. His fly ball, his fly ball tendencies are so extreme. Like, he's going to be a low, low, low, babbip guy that I'm not sure. Like, he's kind of the sixth catcher off the board because nobody else deserves to be the sixth catcher off the board. There's a clear top five in my mind.

and then there's Will Smith. And so you end up paying a premium there that he doesn't necessarily deserve. And he may end up, he's just as dropable, I feel like, as any of the guys you draft behind him. What are the chances he's Mike Zanino? It's not zero. You know, I certainly wouldn't expect him to be Mike Zanino

bad in batting average. But it's within the realm of possibility, and it's that kind of profile. Yeah, the profile reminds me a lot of Reese Hoskins, which we'll get into a little bit later on, except he does make harder contact than someone like Reese Hoskins. So let's just go around and reveal who else you guys have at the catcher position. Scott Head Will Smith, Chris Head Will Smith.

Adam, who is a catcher that you're avoiding this season? If you look at CBS ADP, it's very different than Fantasy Pro's ADP, but I'm looking at CBS head-to-head points league ADP, and nobody's taking Christian Vasquez. He's going very late. I'm not sure I really buy that, but in fantasy pros, he's the n... It's a ninth catcher off the board. So,

Vasquez for me. I just, again, Outlier season. I don't think he's anything special. He might play a lot. Ron Renicki talked about playing him a lot. But he's going ahead of Carson Kelly in Fantasy Pro's ADP. And that's ridiculous.

For a guy who had a pretty lousy career before last year, I'm not taking Christian Vasquez. Yeah, let's go, Adam. I also have Christian Vasquez. Where did the 2019 come from last year? 23 home runs randomly broke out. Before 2019, he had 10 home runs in 99 plate appearances and never really showed that type of upside before.

Never had a home run to fly ball rate higher than 6.8%. Last season, that number jumped to 16%. So it might have been helped a little bit by the juiced ball. Again, we're going to construct a head-to-head points roster, so one catcher, one infield position, one of each infield position, three outfielers, utility, five starting pitchers, and relief pitcher. At first base, I mentioned the name already. Reese Hoskins.

Scott, that is someone that you were avoiding at the first base position. Yes, it is. Yes, it is. And I guess this is kind of a trend in my rankings, too. If a player, as prevalent as power is right now, if I feel like that's basically all somebody is providing, like he's going to be a liability in batting average, he's a zero on steals.

I'm generally not fond of him. He'd have to come at a real discount for me to be and I don't feel like Hoskins is being discounted enough for a pretty awful season that maybe he'll bounce back from to a degree, but he's not going to be an asset in batting average. We have enough of a track record now to know that. And I compare him to, you know, even somebody like Carlos Santana who goes later in Roto leagues.

And I don't think they're that far apart and head-to-head. because Hoskins walks a lot too. But Santana has a much more stable track record. He doesn't strike out much. I just feel like I know what I'm getting there more. And it's comparable enough that I don't, like where they're going is comparable. So I don't really ever have a need to even consider taking Reese Hoskins.

But this is a points league exercise, right? No. Oh, not necessarily. We're using the head-to-head roster. All right. Rosser construction. Because I think Hoskins is a pretty good discount in points leagues. he was 21st in Roto last year and he was 13th in points and his batting average stunk but he still

had like a 360 OBP so I think he's I actually think if he just has a good year at the plate with as much as Hoskins walks I think he could be a great pick in points leaves where is he being drafted in points leagues curiosity yeah like 120th or something like that well I'm in at the position since he said he's 13th I got it one two three four five six seven like 15th 16 something you know, ahead of, just ahead of Edward and Carnaccio, after, yeah, yeah, 15thish. I do think there's, you know, it's, it's kind of a low, it's, it's like, it's like the Mike Zunino scenario for Will Smith. I do think there's a chance Reese Hoskins, uh, if he keeps doing what

he did the last four months of last season. They're just looking to replace him midseason. Now, the, the thing about that, um, like if, if Reese Hoskins does what he did the last four months last season, he's not going to be fantasy relevant, really. There's going to be no reason to have him on your roster. Right. He did rework his swim this off season. You know, from what I understand, the goal was to kind of quiet his setup and get his hands into position quicker.

And the thing with Reed Hoskins is pretty much everything you look at last season. I actually just wrote about him for a piece I'm doing on players who need to make adjustments for 2020. And for him, it's just, like he had the highest average launch angle in baseball, but it was only like one or two degrees higher than Mike Trout. Now, obviously, it is always unfair to compare anyone to Mike Trout, who is, you know, the...

He hits the ball a lot harder. But also, Mike Trout is the best hitter in baseball. He's one of the best hitters of all times. The best everything. He's basically a perfect hitter. And if you look at... But if you look at the distribution of their launch angles, for Trout, it's a lot in the, like,

like 18 to 20 degree range. And for Hoskins, it's some in the 5% range, some in the 15% range, a lot in the 30% range, and then a lot in the 60 degree, and a lot in the 60 degree range. And so what that tells you is, first of all, why average launch angle has flaws,

but also he was just, his swing was broken. And if he fixes it, I think he can be a good player. His distribution, like he was line drive, groundball, fly ball. That's basically what we're talking about when we talk about distribution of launch angle. Kind of, but what, I don't want to get too bogged down in, but basically, line drive, fly ball, and ground ball, that's three buckets that are very wide. Like a fly ball is like anything from 22 degrees to pop up straight up, 90 degrees or whatever. yeah, 90 degrees. So, like, there's a really large spread. And so, like, a 40, 245 degree,

245% fly ball rates won't necessarily be the same either. Chris, I'm going to assume that Reese Hoskins is not your pick. If you want to, he is not. Reveal that quickly. Yeah, I, I, haven't drafted Reese Hoskins yet, but I'm, I'm interested in it. For me, it's Pete Alonzo. And for a lot of the reasons that Scott said for Reese Hoskins, obviously Pete Alonzo is a much better player. But he basically stands out as a home run hitter and that's it. RBI and runs, obviously he was good in last year, but that'll happen when you hit 53 home runs. I don't think there's any way he hits, I mean, I don't think there was any way he was going to hit 50 home runs again in a 162 game season. It is possible that he hits 25 in 81 games because 81 games,

weird things can happen. But I would bet on him being more like a 40 homer guy. You know, he's not necessarily like this huge outlier in exit velocity like Aaron Judge. And so if he's more like a 40 home run guy and he hits 260, I'd rather just wait on Matt Olson. I'd rather just find my power with Fran O'Rea, someone we talk a lot about. Ultimately, it just comes down to if you draw most of your value from hitting home runs, I'm not going to pay a premium for you this year. Yeah, and that's what you have to do for Pete Alonzo.

ADP right now is 26, so he's an early third round pick. And I definitely agree with that one. I also have Paul Goldschmidt, someone we've talked a lot about, so I'm not going to get into it. But the plate discipline is starting to slip a little bit. And he was pretty bad for four out of the six months last year. He was below average. Adam, first baseman, who you're avoiding?

Yes, I love picking players that other people on this podcast like a lot. So Jose Abraeu is my first baseman Tramp stamp. Take that. I'm also there with you. He had a 123 RBIs last year. And his lineup got better. And he was only the number 10 first baseman in points leagues because he doesn't really stand out in point.

So I thought this was a points. Exercise. But no, but I think it's. I would be more interested in him in Roto because he can give you a respectable batting average. But he's just not a standout player. And that's the bottom.

Yeah, I think the point still stands for, for Roto. Now, he was better. I think he was 60th, or eighth in Roto. I think he was eighth in Roto. Like, eighth in Roto while leading the majors in RBI, that's not a great sign. That's, um, because he's not going to hit 124 RBI again. The, the lineup is better. Um, but. Never say never, Chris. It did, it's not the Red Sox lineup. It's not the Yankees lineup. Um, it's pretty good lineup. He does have a, He does have an approach that does tailor itself to higher than expected RBI totals, but he was 14th among qualified first baseman in OPS last season. He is very close to being just a guy as an overall hitter, and he's 32 years older, 33. I think at a points league he is, but you can pretty much pencil him in for 290, 30, 100, you know, and that's pretty valuable in ROTA. Unless he slips, which is entirely possible at his age. I think people don't realize how old Jose Abraeu is because he was 27 or 28 when he made his debut.

Yeah, he'll be 33 if he's not 33 already. He turned 33 in January. We don't, the thing is, we just don't see any, we don't see any signs of slipping. I mean, his stat cast numbers were the best that they've been in his career. So I guess it could, it can happen to anybody. But if we're just looking based on data, there's nothing that shows that he's, you know, close to slipping. It's kind of the same reason why we draft Justin Verlander as high as we do because there's really nothing that shows us that he's getting ready to decline.

But Justin Verlander wins you leagues. Jose Abraeu... Jose Abraeu doesn't lose you leagues. He's fine. He doesn't lose you leagues. I like him. The deeper the format, the more I like Jose Abrao. He's better in Roto, for sure.

There's no doubt about that. In a shallower format where you don't have to start a corner infielder. You only have three outfielders, even if it's categories, even if it's Roto. If it's just like 10 or 12 teams, I don't love them because I think you really want difference makers there. And to me, he's not that. But in a deeper league, he's very dependable. And I think that's more valuable in deeper leagues. All right. So we've already done what we weren't supposed to do. We spent about 10 minutes on first base. So we have to... We did? Yeah, pretty much. We have to condense second base a little bit more here. Adam,

why don't you get us started? Who's a second baseman? Wait, did you give us your first baseman? Mine is Paul Goldschmidt. I kind of just slipped it in there. We've talked about Goldschmidt a lot. And his plate discipline starting to slip. I don't really trust the Cardinals lineup. But I think Pete Alonzo is probably second up for me. He's one that I'm more than likely not going to own on any of my teams. Adam, second base. Who's someone you're avoiding here? Well, I feel bad because everything I did was points leagues.

That's fine. Heald was my answer. Definitely not avoiding him in Roto leagues. But in points leagues, I'm avoiding him. No, I think you can avoid him everywhere. I have him as my outfielder. Yeah, I mean, if he doesn't steal, he's not going to be, he's not going to be very valuable.

And he said he didn't steal because the Royals were out of contention and they're going to be out of contention this year. So you probably need 30 from him to feel good about the pick. I guess. I haven't 15 from him. Like they might not be out of, they might not be out of contention until the season's halfway done. I get that's kind of true.

And it wouldn't surprise me to see like, I'm sure there are better examples, but the one that always stands out in my mind was the Nationals, the first year they were in Washington. I think it was 2004, 2005. I think they were like in first place in the NL East at the All-Star break and Chad Cordero was somehow an all-star. And then they faded.

But, you know, half seasons, the standings can look weird. Well, I'm not avoiding him in Rodo, but I'm definitely avoiding Marifield and points because he doesn't, like he was the number one second basement of points leagues in 2018. But with that same fantasy point total, he would have been number six in 2019. and it's not like he increased his home runs, you know, like everybody else did. So he's just, he's a jag in points leagues, basically.

Boo, get rid of him. He's one of my outfielers. I'll just mention it now. Solon bases went from 45 to 20 last season. Sprint speed has decreased three seasons in a row. He was caught stealing 10 times last year. In the second half, his OPS went from 8.50 to 761. He started hitting more ground balls.

He made less contact. I am out. Whitmeryfield's 80p right now, 47.2. Do not do it regardless of format. Scott, second base. Who are you avoiding? I'm going with Eduardo Escobar here of the Diamondbacks, who might be the one guy who exploded

in what we deemed the middle of his career last year, who I'm not in on. I don't see the changes to the bat-a-ball profile that explained the surge in power. The expected stats don't back up the actual stats. I think his most likely production is more like what Ryan McMahon gave you last year, at least in terms of the 5x5 categories. He might have more doubles than McMahon had last year.

But, you know, he's being drafted like Mike Mustakis. I don't think he's Mike Mustakis. He's been a top 12 third baseman and a top 10 second basement. Two years in a row, though. I don't really know what to do with that. Because he hit a ton of double. He had 48 doubles in 2018. Well, did you not hear me address the doubles in my little?

Is he not? I mean, is he really like he was, he's been top 12 two years in a row. I don't know how much of a breakout. It was obviously a breakout at age 30. But he was pretty good at age 29 too. Was he a top 12 in five by five production two years in a row? According to our Roto standout. We're standing's yes.

He was ninth at second base and 12th at, Maybe I'm just bad at this Adam, but I don't want him. I don't draft him either. I'm just saying like he's. Yeah, no, he went from 23 homers to 33, right? Or do I even, am I even? 35. 35.

Yeah, it was an insane number of home runs. Yeah, for me, it's like the scene in Mad Men where, uh, I can't remember the guy's name. Genshew. No, what's his name? Never seen it. Ginsburg, I believe, tells Don Draper. something like I hate you. And Don Draper's like, I don't even think about you.

I don't think about him either. That's kind of how I feel about Eduardo Askebar. It's not, I don't dislike him. I just like, I never even consider the possibility of drafting him. Same, but I just don't know why. He's a good points league player. That's one thing I'll add. You know, in the, the Tout Wars head-to-head points format, the auction that we did,

they have a middle infielder and a corner infielder. And I drafted him to be my middle infielder for like five or six bucks. but he is a better points league player even if some of those home runs come down. I think those will go back to being doubles. Right. I guess potentially out. He had 10 triples last year.

Yeah. I don't think you can bank on that for Eduardo Escaron. No, but he's an extra base hit guy. Yes, he is. Chris, quickly, who's your second baseman, that you are not drafting this season? This is kind of a weird one because he's going so low, but Gavin Luxe.

156.8. I did a mock draft with you where you drafted him. All right. Maybe I'm a liar then. Was it an NL only? No. I don't remember ever taking him in a Mix league. I just, fine.

I think it was a Roto League where you got him super late. Right, but that's what we talked about. I just, he's being drafted in the kind of middle infielder range and playing on a team that has shown no qualms about making their top prospects platoon players if they think it helps them win. I think Gavin Lux is most likely to be a platoon player this season. And I don't want that for my middle infield spot. Yeah, the second basement for me that I am not drafting,

basically because of costs, is Jose Altovae. 32.2 ADP, he's the second, second basement off the board behind Glaver Torres. And he's going ahead of guys like Ozzy Albies and Catele-Marté. And I like both of those players more than Altova. I'm just worried about the injuries. And you're going to notice a theme here with the players I'm a voluble. A lot of them are or have been injury prone the past couple of seasons. And I think in the shorter season, again, those injuries are going to be amplified.

They're going to affect you more in a shorter season. So someone like Altuve, I will be avoiding this upcoming season at that ADP cost in the third round. Should I just yell at you about John Carlos Stanton now or do we want to say? I actually don't have Stanton on the list. So surprisingly enough, but I know somebody who does. Scott, you have Chris Bryant, as your third baseman that you're avoiding. So, yeah, join the club.

For me, I have him as my third basement. It's mainly because of the price. I mean, his ADP is 45. I just don't think that he has the upside to compete with some of the other names that are going around this range. Unless you think of him as injury prone, I think he's pretty high floor. In terms of performance, he's going to give you useful must-start production.

But I feel like he's at the start of a very big tier that goes all the way up to number 15 at the position. Like I have him and Josh Donaldson in the same tier, and that's my number six and number 15 third basemen. So there's just no reason to pay up for the top guy in a same tier. It's, you know, he's long gone before I'm usually looking to fill third base, or either I drafted, you know, one of the super stud third basements in round one or two. Chris Bryant last year among qualified hitters,

his 35.8% hard contact rate was tied for 109th in baseball with Jackie Bradley Jr. Doesn't sound great. 87.4 mile per hour average exit velocity was below league average. 246 expected batting average. He's someone that typically overperforms his expected stats, but those things just give me some pause, the injuries, and the fact that he just doesn't have as much upside as other players is the reason why I am avoiding Chris Bryant this season. Adam, who's a third baseman that you are not drafting in 2020? Get mad at me, Tramp Stamp. It's Raphael Devers. Because I usually draft pitchers in the third round, I find quite often.

And if I'm going to take a hitter instead of a pitcher in the early rounds, I have to be so convinced that he is an elite hitter, number one. And number two, he's probably not going to play, well, I wouldn't say that because I would take some other third baseman. But I was going to say he's probably not going to play the deepest position. And that's the thing with Devers. I still have some doubts. I want to see one more year of him being an elite hitter before I am convinced that he is that.

He's still not great against left-handed hitter, left-handed pitchers. I'm guaranteeing the counting stats, 115 RBIs and 129 runs are coming down. So I just think that he could take a little bit of a step back and he plays the deepest position and I like to take pitchers in the third round, not Raphael Devers. What I will say in response to that is you want one more season of elite production. from him, you can get him in the third round right now. This might be the last season. You can get him outside of the first.

But like I said, I mean, I take pictures there. So I really need to be very convinced. And I'm not quite there with Devers. Chris, who's a third baseman that you are not drafting in 2020? I'm assuming it's the guy Scott hasn't shortstop, Manny Machado. It is. And I mean, I think we've kind of beat that one again. he's just been

amazingly pedestrian since leaving the Orioles. And it's not, you know, usually I think you can kind of explain away some of the home road splits when guys playing really good hitter parks are really bad hitters parks.

But in his case, he's basically since leaving the Orioles for the Dodgers in the middle of the 2018 season, he's basically been the same guy he had always been playing away from Camden Yards. and so you have Mani Matrato at Candon Yards, who is an absolute superstar. And then you have Mani Machado away from Canaan Yards who looks like Mike Mastakis. Yeah.

Well, Scott, you could transition us into shortstop and build off Machado if you'd like. Yeah. Yeah, I guess Mike Mustakis is a fair comp, though Mike Mustacus in Cincinnati versus Manny Machado and San Diego. I'm not so sure Mustacus doesn't come out ahead there. Well, Mastakis was in Milwaukee last year. year. I'm not expecting any improvement.

Yeah. I mean, Chris pretty much summed it up, honestly. Just, you know, it, home away splits. You know, maybe they don't say a ton on their own, but when a guy leaves that home and starts performing exactly like you did on the road all those years,

it pretty much tells the story there. And then when you consider he's always had such a low-line drive rate, you really, it's really easy to piece together the puzzle there and see, okay, his overall production was so reliant on the long ball, which is now harder to get in these bigger stadiums and when he's just getting a lot more outs.

Yeah, it's pulling his numbers down. It's something I've referenced before with Machado, but last year he was hit by a pitch on his arm on August 8th, and before that hit by pitch, he was hitting 272 with a 494 slug. his career he's a 279 with 4.83 slug. After that hit by pitch, he hit 213 with a 375 slug the rest of the way, which really pulled his numbers down. So the pre-numbers weren't studly, is the point.

Like, 494 slugging percentage 270 batting average for a guy who's eligible at the two deepest positions in fantasy. I mean, I'm not saying he's bad. He's perfectly fine starter. It's just not dissimilar from what he's done in the past, I guess, is the point. But when you compare it to his career numbers, remember he started at like 1920 And in the first few years of his career, he wasn't hitting for much power. So he's not it's not really fair to compare it to the rest of his career.

Yeah, I'd break out a few years in. Like 272-490 slug, that's probably what I expect from Matt Chapman. Right. He's going 30 spots later. It's not that dissimilar from what I expect from, I don't know, I can name another guy, but the point. No, it's not that good. Plus, like, you need to be better than what you had been previously in your career in 2019, because everybody was better. But there's something about Machado that we don't talk about a lot.

And that is his counting stats. His RBIs and his runs have been so low lately. And that is like, I don't really get it. 85 RBIs and 81 runs for a guy who played 156 games. And it's been like that, I think kind of year after year for like three years in a row. 81, 84 and 81 runs last three years. And not quite that with the RBI. I'm wrong about that.

But 85 RBIs, like, it's really bad. And I feel like that could get better. And it needs to get better because he doesn't steal anymore. So that, you know, like I mentioned with Jose Abrae, you having a game that is geared towards racking up RBI. What I meant by that was he puts the ball in play a lot, especially for a guy who hits for the kind of power he does. And he just generally has a high average, doesn't have a lot of unproductive outs,

doesn't have a lot of pop-ups, doesn't have a lot of wheat grounders. Machado is a more extreme hitter. He strikes out more. What was his strikeout right last year? It was like 26% or something, wasn't it? It was 19%, which was a career high for him. But he is a low-line drive rate, which means that he's- I still think the runs were low.

No matter what, I think the runs were low. For a guy who had 32 home runs, he played 1506 games. His on-base percentage was pretty low, though. What I'll say about... Two of the past three years, his on-base percentage has been below 340. Runs in RBI are correlated to the lineup that you're in, though. Yeah. So, I mean, I expect...

To a certain extent. I expect the Padres lineup to be better this year than it was last year, and probably better than it has been in a while. If, assuming Fernando Tatis can stay healthy, they traded for Tommy fam. Those are two players right atop the lineup who you expect to hit in front of Mani Machado. I hear all the points that you guys are saying, and a lot of people have referenced how bad he's been since he's left Camden.

I can't dispute that. The numbers are what they are. I'm giving him a pass for last year. I think it's first year, you know, mega contract. He struggled against right-handed pitching, which is something that he had never done before. He was seeing pitchers that he didn't regularly see ever before. And the Padres lineup is improved. So for all those reasons, I expect, you know,

if he hits 275 with a, you know, let's say he gets back to a 500 slug and in a full season hit 35 home runs with close to, let's say, 90 runs and 100 RBIs with 8 to 10 steals. I think that's a really, really productive player that you're getting in the fifth or sixth round. That's probably where that kind of player would deserve to go, though, especially at third base.

Yeah, well, we got to move on from Machado. Adam, was he your pick for shortstop as someone you're avoiding? No. All right, who you got? I'm taking a shot at Scott White here. Oh, boy. I'm taking Marcus Simeon. Uh-oh.

I, look, everything about what he did last year, except for the RBIs, I'd say, in the run. Well, the 123 runs 92 RBIs. I think he batted lead off, but he slugged 702 with runners in scoring position. So that was not legit. But if you're going to have a breakout, what Simeon did is pretty legit. I mean, his plate discipline was so much better. And that had been, now his walk rate's been better, or his K rates were better two straight years.

His walk rate had gotten better, I think, starting late in 2018. So I understand why people would like Marcus Simbaugh. I just think it was too late for me, too late in his career for me to think that he became a different player. It was too good to be true. And I'm just not taking him, especially because I like Carlos Correa about 500 times more. And their ADPs are going to be pretty similar. So no simian for me. Speaking of Carlos Correa, he is the shortstop that I am not drafting this season 101.

Why do you hate the, you cannot be so upset about the Astros stealing signs and robbing the Yankees that you're not taking out Tuvei or you're not taking Corrella. you're not taking Correa. Plus, the Yankees stole signs, too. It comes back to the injuries, and Correa has not played more than 110 games each of the past three seasons. He's dealt with core injuries, injuries to his back, and these are things that I think are going to continue to linger,

and they will hurt you more in a shortened season. So he's the 15th shortstop off the board. It's a deep position again. And you're telling me in Roto, he's going ahead of Tim Anderson. I'd rather have Tim Anderson. And even in a points league, he's going 35 picks ahead of Corey Seeger. So if I can get Corey Seeger three rounds later,

why would I take Carlos Correa? Because he could be the best shortstop in baseball. He could be the best hitting shortstop in baseball. Or he can play 40 games in an 82 game season. You all play scary. He's already missed his 80 games, baby. There you go. No, I think the injury concerns,

especially in his case, because there have been a series of recurring injuries. You know, it's not just like, oh, he hurt his calf, then he hurt his elbow. You know, he's had a couple of back injuries, and that's especially concerning. But I don't know, if he's so good that if there weren't injury concerns, he's probably where Glaber Torres is. He's probably a top 30 pick. Doesn't steal bases anymore. Right, but neither does Glaber.

No, it's fair. what is he can't, if he's, you know. Claver's being drafted as the second basement, that's part of it. Like, there's, right. Sure. Shortstop is one of, third, shortstop in third basement are really to two positions where like, it feels wrong to rank somebody low, but you have to pick somebody to rank that low. If there were no injury concerns,

I would say 75% of this podcast, at least, would take him over Mani Machado. I'd take him over Glaber Torres. Hey, I'm just going to point this out, Correa 277 career batting. average 489 slug. Sounds a lot like Mani Machina. Sure, sure. But you're getting him later. I get it.

One of those was a really bad year. Like he's been like 875, I think, three out of the four and two of the five, three out of 11 one year, 728, but two of the last three, he's been 926 OPS or better. He's the man. I just don't think he can. You can regret it. I just don't think he can stay healthy. That's what it comes down to for me.

Did Chris give us his shortstop yet? Yeah, Chris, who's your shortstop? Who is it? Fernando Tatez. Okay. Do you want to expand? I mean, it's pretty self-explan. We've talked about it, but...

Yeah, it's kind of like what Adam said with Raphael Devers, except Raphael Devers mostly earned all the production that he had last year. It didn't look like a fluke. In Fernando Tatea's case, it was really high strikeout rate, really, really high Babbup, one of the highest Babbup's. in baseball history. And he's got injury concerns of his own. He dealt with a hamstring issue last year that ended his season.

He had a back issue as well. The back issue or the hamstring issue end his season. It was one of them. I think it was the hamstring. I think hamstring. But like that, those are two injuries you don't want to see from a 19-year-old player, especially a back. You know, because as we've seen with Carlos Correa,

that was the one that that has recurred. It was the back that ended the season. Okay. Yeah, it was the hamstring in the summer. Yep. That, to me, like, there are questions about whether he can stay healthy. There are questions about whether what he did last year was for real. I don't want to bet against the talent.

I think he will be worth a first round pick at some point. I just didn't see enough from him. year one to expect it in year two, and you're getting close to paying that price. It's not quite a first round pick. The one point of pushback I'll have for you, Chris, is similar to what you said to Adam about Devers. Yeah. Is if Tatis lives up to his expectation, this is the last time you're getting him.

100%. Yeah, like he could potentially be a top three pick next year around like Ronald de Kuna if he, I think he has the upside to do something like Ronald de Kunez. So that's the last point of pushback. But I see what you're saying because he's going higher than someone. like Raphael Devers this season. All right, we're going to take a quick break when we come back. We're going to take a look at outfielders

and then the pitchers we are avoiding here in 2020. All right, we're back here, and we're going to jump into the outfield position now where you've got to give three outfielders. But guys, we'll only focus on maybe the one outfielder you want to talk about more than the others. Adam, you know, who are the outfielders that you're avoiding this year? But who's really the main one?

Who's the one that you see him come up in the draft? And you're like, nope, not doing it. I'll tell you the three that I picked and you can give me that you can assign me one. Starling Marte, regardless of format, Danny Santana, Victor Robles. I'd like to hear your thoughts on Victor Robles.

Like the most laughable hard contact rate in baseball and mostly hit seventh to ninth last year. So I don't think there are going to be a lot of plate appearances with Victor Robles. And the steel, like obviously you need steals. Yeah, go

forward in Roto. But I need to see him be a good hitter before I invest a mid-round pick in Victor Robles. He's not really a mid-round pick. He's like a top 100 pick. So hopefully I don't need him to fill out steals. Basically, that's all I'm drafting him for. Victor Robles, ADP right now is 77.4. He is the 21st outfielder off the board last year. Despite the hard contact being 24.9%, hit 255 with 17 home runs.

and 28 steals. Isn't there something to be said for, I mean, that's a pretty good season, his first, you know, full season in the bigs. You should expect him to build off that, no, Adam. Like, if he can get to 20 homers, 30 steals, even with a 260 batting average, that's probably worth where he's being drafted.

Yeah, but he was the number 29 outfielder in points leagues in Roto and played 155 games. That's fine. Like, I don't hate it because he could be Raphael Devers. Rafael Devers was coming off a horrible season, and then he busted out big time. But I don't know, there's nothing in the underlying stats that make me think that he's going to do that.

Scott, who are the three outfielder who are mainly avoiding in 2020? So, Giancarlo Stanton's on this list. I don't want to talk about him. Chris, shake my head. Tommy Pham and Andrew Benintendi. Benintendi are the three on my list. I have Benintendi on mine as well, so.

Now, Tommy Femm is interesting because what I was going to say about Adam with Robles is I'm to the point where in a rotisserie league, a five-by-five categories league, I don't feel like I'm capable of putting a base dealer on my, I will draft them under no circumstances list because there are so few guys you can bank on for a usable number of stolen bases. So even if you don't like the hitter profile, like with Robles, You just kind of have to hold your nose and do it. But in VAM's case, I think I'm not confident in really anything he does.

You know, the venue change doesn't help with that, but also he's dealing with some UCL damage in his elbow. Also, his ground ball rate has been rising each of the last few years, which is not the thing you want to see rising in today's environment. He kind of has an Eric Hosmer. situation with the ground ball rate now. So I, I, he was 21, 25 last year, homeruns and stolen bases, you know,

just because of his age, because of his, you know, questions about how much he's going to get on base because of how well he's going to hit in his new environment. I just don't know, like, steals may be the most bankable thing for him, but it's, you know, 20 or so we're talking about. And then I don't know what direction

the home runs and batting average is going to go from here because it's just not an optimized batting batting ball profile for today's environment. Chris, who are a few outfielder that you are avoiding here in 2020? Has anyone mentioned any outfielders to this point that you are avoiding? Yeah, Ben Intendi. I just don't, like, he's a fine player for fantasy, but he's got to improve a lot just to be a good pick where he's at. and he's another guy whose swing just seems kind of messed up.

You know, he started trying to hit for more power, and it just kind of seemed to ruin him. The other two guys are a little more highly ranked. One I won't expand on because Frank has already taken enough abuse today. But I don't like Giloy Jimenez at 59.6 overall at all. I can take all the abuse, baby. It just seems one. Like, yes, there's the prospect pedigree, but also he had one good month last season, and it's like, oh, well, the first five months really didn't matter.

And again, like, he's someone who could be a second or third rounder next year. The potential there is absolutely immense, but he wasn't anywhere close to even being worth this last season. So it's really, it's paying for a breakout. And it's not even like If he just has a good season for him He'll be an okay value here He needs to like Hitting this value would probably be like a 75th or 80th percentile outcome

For Eloi Jimenez I would think Eloy Jimenez his ADP right now is 59.6 So he's bordering on a fifth sixth round player Probably it's weird to say Because I would think he's a better rhodo player than points because he doesn't walk all that much, but all he really provides his power. The thing is he can provide power without hurting your batting average, Chris,

based on, you know. Yeah, I know. In theory, he was like a 260 hitter last year, though. So it's Aloi Jimenez being drafted under the presumption of a breakout that hasn't happened yet. I mean, you're just trusting that it happened that last six weeks and that he's going to sustain something close to that pace for a full season. because if you just take the full season line, I mean, no, no. He's not even a top 100 player.

Unless I have his stats wrong. But what, like, do I have his stats wrong, 267, 31 homers and 122 games? No, that's right. But I think it was like that's really good. For a rookie, 122 games hit 31 homers while hitting 267. I mean, that's tremendous. The thing is he's being drafted in the top 60. And you look at some of the players being drafted behind him who are already studs.

And it's like, why is this guy get this kind of benefit of the doubt? Like who? Well, let me pull up the ADP. So going just behind him is Joey Gallo. Joe Carlis-Cherla-Stanton. Stang-in-Kal-A-Saint-E-A-Selair. It's making no Stan. You Darvish, Matt Olson.

No, outfielders, I would say. Okay. Or hitters, hitters. Okay. I mean, I trust Matt Olson more. I trust Max Muncie Moore. Yohan Mukata. everybody seems to think he's a stud now.

None of the, I don't think any of them are like bona fide studs, though. Joey Gallo is probably going to hit 15 more homers. And hit 220. What's the argument for Eloy Jimenez going 37 picks ahead of Marcelo Zuna? No, I like, I like Ozuna. I mean, Scott kind of got me on that train that Ozuna is one of the better values. Right, right, but that's still what's happened. Like, Marcelo Zuna is still going three rounds later than him.

And it's, it's because you can, people are projecting the upside on Elo Jimenez. And that makes sense. But like, Marcelo Zuna did that in 2017. Marcelo Zuna in 2017 was what you're hoping Eloy Jimenez can become, I mean, really at his ceiling. But, but Marcelo Zuna also has more seasons of not doing that. Yeah, like is that the outlet? Right. But he has more seasons total.

I know, but. What's the best case scenario for Jimenez? What Jorge Soler did last year, Jorge Soler is going 30 picks later. He actually did it last year. He's going 20 picks later. He's in 25 picks. But another guy who's had a lot of bad in his career.

I'm basically playing devil's advocate right now. It's fine not to like Jorge Soler. I get that. But why does he not get the benefit of the doubt? And Aloi Jimenez does when one of them come closer to this theoretical stat line, we're aiming for. But wasn't Hemenas a better prospect? And, I mean, 267 with 31 home runs

and 122 games as a rookie. Jorge Soler did not do that. I mean, that's, that's fair. Awesome. That's fair. Yeah. And I don't take Hemenas there either, but I see why people do. It's a young man's game and you're trying to get the breakout

before it happens. It's a little pricey. But I think one, like, I think 12 picks later, I'd be fine with it if he were going 72nd overall instead of 60. Yeah, he's a guy like, I've taken Luis Robert who's going around 100, and even that feels a little expensive for me, but I haven't even

A Lois another guy who I really haven't even thought about drafting this year, and that's not to say that the breakout can't or won't happen. It certainly can. It's just, it's an awfully high price to pay to bet on it. I've never, I've never been that guy who

says, okay, this is how good I think somebody could potentially be. So that's the point I'm going to draft him at. Like definitely want particularly an environment like now where like offenses everywhere. You keep having to find artificial reasons to downgrade people. This seems like a natural reason to downgrade a guy. What's the put?

I just think that he. Well, the potential. He was really good last year. He could be a second or third round. It's not like Vladimir Guerrero where you're taking, it's not that different. No, it's a same. Different.

It's a much better year than Vlad. It's actually, I was going to use Vlad as the example because they're going back to back. Vlad is going 58.8 and Elo is going 59.6. They're going back to back in ADP. And it's really just, we say this a lot about last year with Devers. And that's kind of why we, I think some of these prospects get, or former top prospects get pushed up the board. It's the blind faith pick. It's just, it's, and again, something that Chris mentioned today.

This might be the last time you can get these guys this late. because if Eloy Jimenez does what I think he can do, if he hits 280 to 290 with 40 home runs or that would be his pace over the course of a full season, then this is the last time you're going to get him as a fifth, six-round pick. And I think the same thing could be said for Vlad, where what if Vlad puts together an Anthony Rendon type season?

It's not out of the realm of possibility. That's why the ADP gets pushed up for some of these former top prospects. And I don't mind where Eloy goes because the difference between him and other power-hitting outfielders is that I think he has the ability to be a batting average contributor based on his 3-11 batting average in the minors. I think he can get up to a 280 or 290 hitter, which would actually help you in today's game.

I think that... Sorry, I'm sorry, Chris. I just think that you don't want to take too many of those types of guys, but I'm fine with you taking one. It's fun to gamble on players like that, and they could really pay off. And if they're a bust in the sixth round, it's really not that big of a deal.

And like, it's not to say that they're going to be a total bus. Like, they could just be fine. So I'm fine with taking one gamble. Nelson Cruz, I mean, Nelson Cruz is, yeah, Nelson Cruz is being completely,

like that is just the blind faith that he's going to fall off because he should be on the merits, on his merits as a player alone, without taking into account his age, he should probably be a borderline first round. He's D-H-only. So there's this Sure, maybe he should be a second rounder.

There's this whole sequence of hitters beginning at 81. Nelson Cruz, Josh Bell, Marcus Simian, Jorge Saler, Jeff McNeil because he's a second baseman. Nick Castellanos. Like, yeah. Castianos is the guy who

I think has very similar upside to Iloa Jimenez. And so I would rather just wait for him. Yeah. I don't think he has the power. I don't think he has the power-ups. I think the batting average, I think he can hit two. I think he can hit 280 plus. Oh, I mean, I think he could hit 310. I made a comparison

in Breakouts 2.0, which is going to, whenever this new season is announced, breakouts 2.0 will come out. I think Nick Castellanos in Cincinnati profiles to be a little like Nolan Aronado, frankly. Oh, I said J.D. Martinez last year. That's sort of the same I mean, I've been waiting for it to happen. I still feel like we have that Nick Castellanos, 300 batting average, 30 plus home run season coming. It's just, again, like we've said it for so long. Now is the time where it should happen.

He did it more than Elon Jimenez did last year. But I have to point something out with Castellanos because while I agree and I'm excited to take him, especially, you know, in like the 10th round, he's not like J.T. Ray Almuto, where every year Ray Almutto was bad at home and amazing on the road. Sure. he typically was better or just as good at home.

2019, when you look at what he did at Comerica, he was really bad. He had a 715 OPS. But the three years before that, it was 813, 871, and 893. He was not a guy who really stunk at Comerica Park. So I just need to point that out. It's not a Rayamuto example. Sure.

Yeah. I just think his skill set and his swing in particular are incredibly well suited for the great American ballpark. I have to leave, Frank. I have to get out of here for more important things. There's nothing more important than fantasy baseball today, Adam. But we know that you're leaving. That's all good. We're going to save the pitchers for tomorrow's show so that I don't even know if Adam's going to be here. But hopefully he is.

I will. He can talk about the pitchers. He is not drafting in 2020. but I'm just going to wrap things up with mentioning my outfielders. I have Benintendi as well. Seems like he's always kind of going to be not hit the value we expect because he plays in Fenway. I think it's just really tough for him there.

He's a weird one because he actually made strides against left-handed pitching last year but started striking out more. He only hit 13 home runs with the juice ball. So just a really weird player in Benintendi. Whitmery field I spoke about earlier. Aaron Judge is the last one. And we've talked about this a little bit with more news coming out. He wasn't expected to be ready until the summertime with this fractured rib injury.

I just don't think that he's going to be healthy, basically. It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is just a lost season for Aaron Judge altogether. 46.680p still being drafted as the 16th outfielder off the board ahead of names like Eloy Jimenez and Jorge Soler. So I do worry about him. And even before that, he has a little bit of Pete Alonzo as well, where the stats that he provides are things that you can get later. The batting average will be better than Pete Alonzo.

But I thought that he was kind of overvalued anyway, just because it's kind of that Yankee bias. So Aaron Judge is not somebody I'm drafting. He's someone who I think if there weren't any injury concerns, he'd probably be a viable second or third rounder. It's just there are significant injury concerns. And I'll break the rule again. I don't see any reason why he should be going two rounds ahead of John Carlos Stanton.

They're very similar players, very similar skill sets, and very similar injury risks. I also, I only gave two outfielders. Can I say my third one? Yeah, who you got? It's an incredibly off brand for me and it feels weird. I don't love Joey Gallo at 72nd overall. I'm with you. Like, you talk about this is the easiest era in baseball history to find power, and we should

just target only power guys or power only guys. Joey Gallo is the single most power only guy in baseball. Now he is also probably the best power hitter in baseball. And, you know, last season he had an utterly absurd 64-WBA when he put the ball in play. The highest behind that out over the last two years is 568. So when he makes contact with the ball, he does unbelievable things. The problem is he made contact with the ball even less than ever last year, 38% strikeout rate.

And so I think he's more likely to hit 220 than 250. And we were never drafting him as a top 75 pick before last year. Yeah, I know I'm kind of... And he made improvements. I'm kind of, this isn't the consensus. view, but I actually think he's made strides with the ability to hit for average, and I'm not just penciling him for another 220 this year. I understand XBA had him as only 229, and I've been citing that stat a lot more. I wonder how much of that had to do with the strikeout rate specifically,

the fact it went up. But he has sold out less for fly balls, really beginning in the second and a half of 2018. And his babbip last year, you mentioned the quality of contact he makes. It was 368, a guy with a high, high line drive rate, a guy who makes really hard contact like that. 368 doesn't sound like a ridiculous babit to me,

especially if he can get that K rate back down to the more normal 35% range rather than 38.4 that it was last year. I mean, he was at like 250 before last year, right? I know, but he was more, he sold out for fly balls more. It was more of a poor Babbitt profile and now it's a good Babbitt profile. I agree, but 368 isn't happening again. Yeah. I mean, in an 82 season, it very well could happen again, but the expectation should not be.

I just, like, I think he can be a very, I think he can be a very high Babbitt player, but a 3.30 would be a very high Babbitt. I don't think he can maintain 368 either. The main reason for me being is that home runs don't count. his balls in play. He had so many home runs that that tends to drag down his Babbib along with the fact that last year he raised his

line drive rate, he still hit 47% fly balls. So when those don't go out... Home runs are irrelevant to Babbitt. They don't drag it down. Right, well, they... They just don't count. They just don't count as balls in play. Right. You're removing a bunch of well-hit balls from the balls-in-play denominator, which leaves

a, in theory, a higher ratio of less well-hit balls to pull from. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, Mike Trout is like a 350 bad bit. Right, but again, Mike Trout is one of the best hitters in the history. You just said the quality, you just, what was that stat you gave about Joe, Joey Gallo's quality? Right, but again, Joe, ball crazy hard, like Aaron Judge. But the thing is, Mike Trout is one of the best hitters in the history of baseball. Joey Gallo is an exceptional power hitter,

maybe the best power hitter of this generation. But John Carlos Stanton was the better version of Joey Gallo. All right, let me look at Freddie Freeman's career bad bit, because it's a similar line drive rate to what we've been seeing for Freddie Freeman over the years. It's Freddie Freeman's career bad. Yeah, line drive, I will also, I will also caution line drive rate tends to fluctuate quite a bit from year to year.

It's one of the least sticky stats. I do agree that his Badd Ball profile is more Joey Gallo's baddaball profile is more conducive to hitting for a higher Babbitt than it was before but you know we're talking about it was like 120 point gap between 2018 and 2019 right?

Yeah it went from 249 in 2018 so 368 Yeah 119 so like let me see what it was in the second half of 2018 because I feel like that's when it started I'm not going to be able to find that quickly enough. Yeah, we've got to sign off here, Scott. But if you could find it, we'll reference it on. I know. Maybe it's just a hunch then.

I'm playing a hunch. I think Joey Gallo is going to be like a 240, 250 hitter going forward. There you go. Argument made. The strikeouts are really tough to overcome. Nearly 40% strikeout rate for Joey Gallo. We're going to save the pitchers for tomorrow for our do not draft teams for Scott, Adam, and Chris. I am Frank. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.

Bye-bye.