Fantasy Baseball Today - DO NOT DRAFT: Pitcher Edition; How To Evaluate Pitchers (05/20 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 20, 2020

Today we're revealing our pitchers to avoid this season but first, how do we evaluate pitching for Fantasy Baseball? What stats do each of Scott, Adam, and Chris look at? ... How much has a pitcher's workload changed over the past few seasons (12:15)? Has 180 innings become the new 200 innings for starting pitchers? ... Our email of the day asks how we're handling injuries in the shortened season (16:27). Does it change how you look at Mike Clevinger or Carlos Correa? ... Finally, which pitchers are on our DO NOT DRAFT teams this season (28:30)? Why is Chris avoiding Mike Clevinger? ... Scott and Frank seem to be off of Blake Snell (36:15). Is it all injury related? ... Are the second-round pitchers overpriced this year (40:37)? ... Mike Soroka broke out in 2019 but Adam seems wary (43:43). Who's the most accurate long-term player comp for Soroka? ... Scott delivers a FANTASTIC Michael Caine impersonation (51:45). ... We end with the relievers we're avoiding for 2020 (53:49). ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, at the wall, grand slam. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Happy Hump Day, everybody, and welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on this Wednesday, May 20th, Frank Sample here with Chris, Adam, and Scott. Yesterday we did our hitter edition of the Do Not Draft Team, and today we're going to get into our pitchers, our starting pitchers and relievers who we will not be drafting in 2020. And yesterday, I started the show asking Adam how he identifies players that he avoids, considering we're going to focus more on pitchers today. I figured, why not ask how do you evaluate?

pitchers in general for fantasy baseball? What are the things that you are looking for? It seems like a loaded question and the only person who can really encapsulate the answer would be C-P-T. Chris, how do you evaluate pitchers for fantasy baseball? Yeah, I actually find evaluating pitchers a lot more enjoyable than evaluating hitters because there's a lot more that goes into it. And so, you know, you wrote that column last week about pitchers who made adjustments. And so, you know, you start with the top line numbers. You know, ERA, whip, yes, but also FIPP, XFIP, Sierra, DRA, all those stats. And you just try to identify the guys who you think will be best on a per inning basis.

And then it's a little harder to do the innings now because there's really only, I don't know, eight guys that you could reasonably predict to throw 200 innings in any given season. So you give those guys a little bit of a boost. But then you can start doing stuff like, you know, looking into the pitch level data and seeing who has room to break out if they make changes like Matthew Boyd right now. And then I think you got to downgrade young guys from a workload perspective who haven't done it yet and give the guys who have been able to consistently give you that ACE workload, you know, another boost. Am I answering the question at all? Yes.

It's such a vague. It's just a vague topic and I always do better with more specific prompts. So I start to kind of, you know, I get a little ADHD when I try. You're seeing it right now. I'll just stop. No, it's a loaded question. And that's why, you know, obviously we're going to move around the room here and ask everyone's opinion. But Scott, I mean, let's say the baseball season ends where heading into

November, you're doing your first round of rankings for the next year. What are things that you are looking at or specific stats from starting pitchers and relief pitchers for that matter that you're taking into account while creating said rankings? The main three, I would say I'm looking at. And it probably should be four. But I'm not sure the best singular stat for the fourth measurement. But basically, the main ones I'm looking at are swinging strike rate, number one. I think it's the best indicator of dominance for a pitcher. Number two, I'm looking for ground ball rate. I think it's especially important in an environment such as today's where anything, seemingly anything hit in the air has a chance of leaving the park.

You know, you could go back just a few years and make a case that maybe flyball pitcher, being a fly ball pitcher wasn't such a bad thing, but I think in today's environment it absolutely is. Three, I am looking at how deep a pitcher pitches into games less so than the cumulative innings total. I'm interested how many times he goes six plus, how many times he's gone seven plus, because that's, I think, you know, that I think is more valuable. And, you know, I kind of have this theory that workload,

you can't trust a pitcher to achieve a certain workload until you actually see him do it. That's kind of something that's become true over the past three years with how carefully teams handle their pitchers. So if a guy, you know, maybe he got shut down midseason, maybe he's mistime. with an injury and that brought down his innings total. But if he was consistently working deep into games, I think that's a strong indicator of success going forward. And then the fourth thing is control.

I guess I probably still just look at walks per nine innings for that. I don't have a more advanced stat to help guide me with that. I kind of feel like walks per nine tells the story well enough on its own. but the idea is to find how how good a pitcher is it throwing strikes, how efficient he's going to be, how what his whip potential looks like. Those are the four main things for me. Adam, I don't know if this is fair, but I've kind of dubbed you in my mind, the master of splits.

You're someone who uses splits a lot. I know you use it for hitting. Is that something you look at a lot for pitchers as well and what else might go into your evaluation when you're four, your opinion of pitchers because little sneak peek, but for later on, Jack Flaherty is on my do not draft list, and I know that he's someone you like, so it's going to be interesting to see and hear why you like him and why I might be avoiding him. Well, you're crazy.

That's number one. I think I don't really care that much about splits, lefty, righty, stuff like that for pitchers. Hitters, it's a big deal. Pitchers, not so much. but if you talk about splits like, you know, a 15 game stretch or something like that. There's a particular thing with Jack Clarity where I think his numbers are a little deceiving because in two straight years, I think it was. I'm trying to get the exact numbers here.

But he had like two or three horrible starts at the end of the year that boosted his ERA and made him look worse than he actually was. If that's a split, then, you know, then yeah, I'm interested in those things because I think they kind of lie with Jack Flaherty. But no, I think I look for the same things that Scott looks for. Swicking strike rate has become more important to me, but I don't really care so much. I think everybody knows this about me. I don't care as much about advanced stuff like FIPP, XFIP, Sierra.

I don't know how useful those things actually are. So, yeah, I don't agree. So, yeah, strike out rate, swinging strike rate, control, all that stuff's important. splits not as much to me. And innings to a degree, but I feel like the guys that go that, you know, like the guys who pitch all those innings, we already kind of know how good they are

and we rank them as such. So I think it's kind of like, like maybe Lance Lynn will be an example of a guy who throws a lot of innings and is lower in the rankings and that's a bonus. But I don't know how much you can get from that because I think the guys who pitch deep into games, we already rank really high for a reason.

Yeah, I mean, certainly if they're, if they're getting the strikeouts too. Those are... Yeah. I think those are the biggest hurdles a pitcher has to clear to have a chance at developing into an ace or something close to it is going deep into games, having the strikeouts. So that's kind of why I set a loose guideline for what qualifies as an ace last year.

I said it at somebody with the capacity for 200 innings and 200 strikeouts. It might be a little too loose because Eduardo Rodriguez has actually achieved both of those thresholds last year. But I think if you use it just kind of as a rough guide, it's going to steer you right more often than not. One other thing to keep in mind there, though, is because so few pitchers do throw a lot of innings, the bar for what is useful has also gotten a lot lower.

So it boosts the value of those guys who still can throw 213 innings, which is a weirdly specific number, but I was looking up Trevor Bauer's 2019 stats earlier, and that's how many he threw. Okay. But, you know, five years ago even, a guy who throw 150 innings in a full season, you would have significantly downgraded.

At this point, that's not that weird. You know, there are very good, very valuable pitchers who might only throw five point. point five innings per start. You know, Blake Snell in 2018 wasn't that far off from that. Yeah, I think he didn't get to... He was a little below six. He was a little below six.

And so the standards... But he's still about to 180 over the season. Right, right. But the standards for acedom have changed as well. I do think that there's probably some middle ground between what Blake Snell averaged per start that year and a pitcher who has... averages just a little over five. And this is kind of what's widened that gap between the ace, near-ace class of pitchers

and everyone else is, you know, if you're not going six innings with any kind of consistency at all, I understand you'll probably average less than six because there will be some starts in there that are just duds. but if you're not able to achieve that that six innings marker, you know, the minimum required for a quality start, your win potential just, it just craters. And wins, at least in the two traditional scoring formats, five by five reticeroine head to head points,

wins are the single most valuable thing a pitcher can contribute. So if you don't, if you're not giving yourself a chance of getting them, you're getting left behind. in a way that I don't care how good the ratios are. It's just not going to be enough to make up for somebody who has a pitcher who's, you know, legitimately high end. Yeah, it's, you can't be a true ace like that top five or top six. Without that, you know, last year, each of the top seven starting pitchers

through each of the top six through at least 200. and four innings. However, you did have Junjun Riu, who was a top 10 pitcher, who threw 182, Max Scherzer only threw 172. So, you know, obviously those guys are, you know,

Max Scherzer was going very deep into games. Right, right. But I'm just talking about the overall finish. He's still finished as like the number 13 pitcher, I think, in 172 innings. So you can still get to that next tier if you give ace level production.

Well, I think we should probably hammer down what we mean by Ace too, because I'm talking about 30 or so pitchers and you're talking about six. Well, yeah, I think it's ace, I mean, like the top tier of the Ace is made. You can definitely be a top 30 pitcher with 160 innings. That's actually pretty easy. But what I mean by like ace level production

on a per start basis is let's say sub 3ERA, sub 1.1.1. one whip and a K-per-9. I think you probably need to get to check all of those boxes. Ken R. Jun Riu fell just a little bit short with the strikeouts, but, you know, a 232 ERA will certainly help. A few things here on the innings pitch. You guys were talking about, you know, how many pitchers have been, you know, throwing 200 innings. And I've heard people in the industry references before and a name that I brought up before, Matt Modica at CTM Baseball on Twitter. He's told me this before and pointed it out

that 180 innings is basically the new 200. So, for example, back in 2015, you had 27 pitchers who threw 200 innings, and 53 who threw 180. And since then, it's just completely plummeted. So

you haven't had more than 15 pitchers throw more than 200 in each of the past four seasons. So from 2016 through 2019, but you have had 32 or more throw 180 So basically, 180 is the new 200. And of course, that will change this season in a shortened season.

But in a normal 162 game season, that's just the way that baseball is trending. Teams are not allowing pitchers to go deeper into games. They're babying them more than ever. And I'm sure that there's data that shows them why they should do that long term. Yeah, so I did, I kind of recapped my 20 years of playing fantasy baseball recently on CBSSports.com. And one of, throughout the process, I was kind of keeping track of league-wide trends. And one of the stats I was putting out there for every year was number of pitchers with

200 plus innings. So the first year I started playing, it was 37. And then just last year, it was 15. And it was in the 40s. Like, it was as high as, I know it reached into the 40s for, like, I hear, look, 2010 as recently is 2010 so halfway through that 20 year period it was 45 pitchers with 200 plus innings so this is a recent and stark drop off in the number of pitchers capable of doing that and so I think what I want to stress when I say my loose guidelines for an ace somebody with the

capacity for 200 innings and 200 strikeouts is capacity it's not they have to have they they have to do that to be an ace. It's, you know, if you're averaging six innings a start and you do that for 33 starts, you're at 198. So if you're doing it, if you're averaging six innings of starts and you do it for 25 starts, obviously you're well short of that. But I still think that is an ace like workload you're taking on just, you know, with a period of rest at some point in there, whether it's because of an injury.

or it's by design. I would be interested to know who, how many pitchers actually did average six innings per start. I would bet it was still, I mean, who made at least 20 starts, I would guess it's only like 15 or 20. It's not a ton. Yeah.

And one interesting note, just before we move on, Mike Clevenger was the number 17 pitcher in Roto leagues last year in 126 innings. Yeah, that's outstanding. He should be the seventh pitcher off the board in draft. Incredible. And it's not like, the rate stats weren't even eye-popping either.

Like, nothing he did stood out that much. 271 ERA 106 whip. That's pretty good. That's pretty good. That's very good. Well, yeah, but it's not, it's not like, it's not Junjun Riu, you know. Like Sunny Gray through 50 more innings had,

what was it, almost 40 more strikeouts with basically the same ERA and Wills. and he finished one spot higher and only won two fewer games. It's weird. Well, I think it's pretty crazy that Clevenger won 13 games in 126. Yeah. Yeah. And that's remarkable. Clevenger averaged exactly six innings per start. Yep. And he averaged 19 fantasy points per game last season. So that was third best among starting pitchers behind only Justin Verlander and Garrett Cole. He's very good when he's on the mound. It's just when he's on the mound, which leads us to our email of the day.

This one comes from Colin. Says Jeff, Craig, Lance, and Alex. That feels Astrosy. Oh, yeah, Astros Infield. When they won the World Series, no. Craig Bischo, Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman. Who's Alex? Who wasn't?

Who was Alex? Why am I not getting Alex? I don't know. Trebek? Was it Trebek? Did they go on Jeopardy? Is that? Astros who've won the MVP?

Maybe. Alex Breggman? No, he didn't win an MVP though. Birkman didn't either. No, I think it's Jeopardy. Oh, it's just killer, it's just killer bees. Ah, gotcha. Bagwell, Bisio, Berkman. I've never heard of Breggman being lumped in with the killer bee.

He's definitely not a killer bee. I reject that. He should, if he's considered one, he shouldn't be. The killer bees are just the first three. Well, for this exercise, he is the fourth killer B for today. Love the show. It's giving me my baseball fix that is desperately needed. I still look forward to Kokomo Friday every Friday or Monday, depending on when I listen. Is that Scott White singing? I don't think so. It's not. That's not you singing, right, Scott?

No, for Kokomo Friday. Was there singing? I don't hear a sing. No, the Kokomo. Oh. No, it's not. That's Doc Krozzar, right? I met him recently, actually. Well, not that recently now, but. I was about to report you if you met him recently.

So my question is, how do we really need to value players getting over injuries or injury risk players with the upcoming, hopefully short in season? Most of what I have heard is how we are higher on guys who have more time to recover. I also don't think we've talked enough about guys like Carlos Correa, which I mentioned yesterday as a reason why I will not be drafting him. My take is that these guys are more extreme high risk, high reward. A setback in recovery for someone like Mike Clevenger, a pop-up on a lingering injury for someone like Correa

could have them missed time, but now that missed time will make a more significant chunk of the season. On the other side, if Clevenger stays healthy for the entire year, he could be a top five starting pitcher, and for all the hate that Correa gets, we have seen him play like an MVP for half a season. How do we level out our team with these types of risks? I have a feeling that these are the types of guys

who could be league winners in 2020. Oh. Well, see, I don't care about it. Yeah, go ahead. I wrote about this just yesterday, how, you know, basically addressing the same sort of thing, how, you know, some of my behaviors in terms of relying on things to even out over the course of the season,

you know, that's just not going to work. And what's probably going to be the biggest, difference between successful teams and unsuccessful ones is just the players they pick how conventionally their season plays out how you know ones that aren't subject to these stretches that last a couple months of you know extreme production one way or another because a couple months is two-thirds of a season if you're talking about you know an 80 game season so yeah that i think it's a there's a case to be made for playing it safer in drafts because of that And, you know, a lot of it's just going to be luck, but a guy who does appear to be a known injury risk like Correa with the back or like Snow with the elbow, certainly Aaron Judge with the ribs, probably not worth it.

The chances of a setback being a season ender, basically, are very high. And, you know, this probably isn't the year to play that risk-reward game. I would rather play it safe. Adam, I don't know about you, but I would kind of limit myself to only one or two of these types of players who are either coming off injury or, and I might do that regularly. You know, I think in a full season you could take a few more risks. But again, if they're players who have chronic injuries or someone who's recovering from like Verlanders, recovering from groin surgery he just had, then I think you should play it a little bit more safe

because, you know, any time that they miss will be, as we talked about yesterday, magnified. Sure. I was saying I'm not changing my strategy, but I do think that's a good point. You don't want to take too many guys. But I would change. I'm not changing my strategy because maybe an 80 game season, 82 game season would help keep these guys healthy because they don't have to play more than that. They don't have to play 162 games. Like Adelberto Mondesi, how many games did he play? Played about 10 weeks last year before going on the IL. So if that were the case, you'd get almost the full season from him. If a guy plays 11. weeks. I think we're talking about somewhere around 13 weeks of the baseball season. If a guy plays 11 weeks and then has as an injury that's going to sideline up for two months, well, in an extended season, you'd miss two months of his production. In this season, you miss two weeks of his production. So maybe there are going to be guys that typically get injured, but they're not going to this year because they didn't have enough time to get injured. So I think that I totally understand if you want to take the safe approach. I get it because

you're right. Mathematically, if a guy goes, misses a month and he does that in the first couple of weeks of this season, that is going to impact you more than if it happened in a full 162 game season. But I am not going to do that because I want to take those gambols on players that can drastically outperform their ADP if they stay healthy. I think you have as good a chance to win your league if they stay healthy as you do to lose your league if they get hurt. Yeah.

What is drastically? because somebody like Blake Snell, I don't think could drastically outperform his ADP. I think Carlos Correa could. I think John Carlos Stanton could. And at this point, I think Aaron Judge could.

And I think Adaberto Mondecy could in Roto. And I think Blake Snell maybe could because I think Blake Snell can play like a first rounder. Blake Snell's 80. It's 40. Yeah.

Yeah, he can definitely do that. I think, you know, Correa was the one that really came to mine. Correa and Stanton, I'd say. we're a year removed from Blake Snell being the number three pitcher. And yes, that was an unsustainable ERA, but he plays on a good team with a great defense.

He strikes out everyone. Right. What's the difference between SP5 and SP12? It's not that much. Well, this is what I'd say, Scott. I think he's being drafted as the 12th SP. Put it this way. I agree.

I'm not taking Blake Snell because there's a track record now, recent tracker of him pitching deep into games and then getting hurt. And they're probably not going to let him pitch that deep into games. But that didn't change. My strategy on Blake Snell didn't change when the season got cut in half. I'm still probably going to avoid Justin Verlander because he's already had two injuries. And he's at that age and he's had so much work. But that was the case regardless.

I'm not changing my injury strategy based on the length of the season. I think, and I'm definitely. the most extreme and not really caring about injuries, but that mostly just comes from, I don't think we're any good at predicting injuries. As a fantasy baseball community, as a sports community, I think if anyone had any way to predict injuries, well, they certainly wouldn't be on the fantasy baseball today podcast on CBS Sports

because they'd be making $20 million a year working for the Astros or Yankees. And so I just think Players who are coming back from injuries certainly have more risk. There is more that can go wrong for them. And then players who have had injuries in the past, there are the risks that they aren't fully healed. There are the risks that that will impact them moving forward.

But I think generally speaking, we tend to view injuries and generally the term injury prone too much as a binary. We view it as you are injury prone and you are not. Or you are an injury risk and you are not. And I think really the way it actually works is there is this scale of injury risk and everybody's on it.

Every player, every pitcher especially probably has a 40% chance of going on the IL in any given year. I think that's what the number is. Every hitter probably has like a 20% chance. And so maybe John Carlos Stanton has a 35% chance to go on the IL and Carlos Correa. I just think we tend to overstate the differences between the guys who we view as injury risks and the guy who we view as not. And I think that is a place, one of the rare places at this point in fantasy baseball, because we've gotten so good at, you know, figuring out value and predicting who's going to be good and who's not,

that I think injuries are one place where you can still gain an edge because we can't quantify that yet, or we can quantify it extremely poorly. If the Astros want to pay me $20 million for me to tell them that Carlos Correa will get hurt this year, then I'm willing to accept that job if anyone in the Astros front office is listening. So shout out to Chris. If that's a real job, then I will take it. I wrote about this yesterday in my Do Not Draft article. Carl's Correa has missed 40% of his games over the past three seasons.

140 games total he has missed due to recurring back and core injuries. So I feel pretty safe saying he's going to miss sometime. Hey, Frank, I got a proposition for you. What's up? I got a proposition. Here we go. $20 million salary from the Astros to do whatever, to fetch water. It doesn't matter.

You get $20 million. But I'm guaranteeing you something that you cannot tell anyone else. You only know. The Yankees will never, ever, ever win the World Series again. But you get $20 million. Would you take that job? Yes. What a selfish jerk.

I've seen enough championships. Oh, my gosh. What about all the kids? kids who are going to grow up Yankees for his whole life. They're going to be sitting there like, oh, this is our year. Never going to happen. Anybody who answers no to that is rich. It's already rich.

Not my kids. Yeah. Because I don't have any. All right, we're going to take a break here. We come back. We'll talk about those pitchers. Our do not draft pitchers here for the 2020 season right after this quick break. All right, we're back here on fantasy baseball today

revealing the pitchers that we are avoiding in the upcoming season, both starting pitchers and relief pitchers, put together a head-to-head points roster construction yesterday, but you went through all the hitters today, five starters and two relief pitchers. Who wants to get us started here? Scott, Chris, Adam, anybody, raise your hand. I will. Yeah.

Chris, who you got? Let's talk about someone we already talked about today. Mike Clevenger is on my do not draft list. He is going 34.8 overall right now. The number seven, Adam, is that one of yours as well? No, I love Mike Clevenger. my draft everywhere list i think he's really really good i think he's being drafted at a level that he's pitched at for 120 innings uh where he missed a bunch of time that's and i don't understand and

and this is to get to just refer back to the injuries discussion one of the reasons i i don't worry about injuries too much is because everyone else is totally inconsistent about who we are and aren't concerned about with injuries. Mike Clevenger is 29 years old. Has he thrown 200 innings once? He did it exactly in 2018. He's on the nose in 2018. So he's thrown 200 inings once. He dealt with injuries in 2017. He dealt with injuries in 2019. He has dealt with injuries already in 2020. He's not going to have missed any time, but he would have. He would have missed a month and a half of the season. And we're just saying, one, who he was in 2018 or 2019, that's who he is now, moving forward,

in perpetuity forever. And two, he's never going to get injured. He's fine. I just, I don't understand the logic behind Mike Clevenger being drafted as like one of the truly elite pitchers in fantasy. Where is he being drafted? I honestly don't know. 34.8 overall, the number 10, start.

starting pitcher. And I would imagine in drafts that are actually ongoing right now, it's even higher than that because that's taking into account a lot of drafts from when he was hurt. I think that you said he was going to miss a month and a half. As I recall, he was going to miss about three weeks, which is why I was getting more excited to draft him. I think his timeline got moved up. But you're right. I mean, injuries. No, I think he was like pretty much. Because remember, we were expecting the season to be delayed like a month at first, and then he was going to be ready to go, right? But, yeah.

No, Chris, you're right about everything. I think that the reason I like Mike Clevenger, he gained velocity last year, and with it, he became much better. But even if he loses the velocity and goes back to being what he was before last year, he's a top 20 pitcher for sure, possibly a top 12 pitcher.

He has a very high floor. It's like a low 3 ZRA. He really a lot of strength. a high floor though. Per inning he does. I think he does. Since 2017 say it's not a high floor. Chris, you said that. Under what circumstances wouldn't we call him an injury risk? Okay, fine, but removing that as a pitcher.

You think he's one of the bigger injury risks as starting pitchers? Well, I just, I think like I said, you're comparing him against other starting pitchers who go in the same range. Right, right. But basically what I'm saying is, if there is value in drafting, quote-unquote, injury risk players, it comes from them being undervalue. I don't think my Clevenger is being undervaled.

I think, though, that Chris, you and I have talked a lot about how round three is kind of, for starting pitchers. So who are you comparing him to? You're comparing him to Blake Snell. You're comparing him to Stevens Drosberg. I know that you probably like Charlie Morton better, which I get. But I think a lot of the pitchers have questioned. marks there. Clevenger was basically better than all of them last year when he pitched.

And I say high floor because I know that performance-wise, 311, 302, 271 ERA last three seasons, 10.1, 9.3, 12.1K rate last three seasons. He's a really good pitcher. So if he loses the velocity and goes back to being who he was, he'd be a mild disappointment, but still a guy you're starting every time out. Yeah, Chris, you mentioned he's being drafted based on what he did last year, but I don't think it's just the last year. Since 2017, his collective ERA is 296 and with a 1-15 whip. That's a really good pitcher. That's a top 10 pitcher. Since the start of April, there have been 143 drafts on NFC. He's the number eight starting pitcher. There have been quite many fewer in May, but he's the number five starting pitcher in those. So,

I take him seventh for what it's worth. How many, like, he was he a top, he was a top 12 pitcher in 2018, right? No, he was 15th in points, 17th in Roto, but I would chalk that up to 13 wins, which is a little low for him, considering 200 innings, 207 strikeouts, 3.02 ERA, 1.16 whip. If he had won two more games, he would have been the number 12 starting pitcher in points. Yeah, that, I don't know. look, everybody can value players differently and everybody does.

It just, he wasn't worth that price in 2017. It wasn't worth that price in 2018, even though he pitched 200 innings. He was worth that price for 120 innings last season. And that's it. We know small sample sizes are not as predictive. We know he is 29. Well, I actually don't know if everyone knows that Mike Clevenger is 29. I don't mind that first time.

I don't care about that for a starting pitcher. Do you? I mean, look at all the... I don't know. He's 29 for a starting pitcher old. I mean, most of the guys going ahead of him are older. Well, at least the top three or four guys. The top four guys are all older.

I think Gary Cole's 29. He has as much of a track record as Blake Snow. Maybe he's less of an injury risk, although... Has Blake Snow had three good seasons in a row? He has had... I mean, he's had one. He's had one. Come on. Last year he was good. I like, Scott, you are going to get on me every time I say Trevor Bauer.

Well, and you argued all season. Chris Sale was really, was good last year. Blake's now. I'm sorry. Basically the same season with a little bit less bad luck. He had the one being inconsistent here. Yeah, you're, I'm sorry, a 429 ERA and 107 innings. That counts as a good year. No way. counts as him pitching well. He didn't pitch well.

His peripherals were much better than that. Oh, and let me tell you something about peripherals, ladies and gentlemen. They are more. Look at Mike Clevenger's FIP. Look, if you had gone by Mike Clevenger's FIPP, each of the last two seasons, you never would have drafted him because they were way too high. So screw FIP. His XFIP was even higher.

XFIP of 405 and 386 in 2017 and 2018. I would have sat out if I was going by. by X-FIP, I would have missed one of the best pitchers in baseball. Those are reasons to, well, hold, like, one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2017. What are we doing here? Clevenger had a lower X-FIP last year than Blake Snell did in his Siong's season. So, to put a bow on everything. Blake's Nell is someone that I'm not drafting.

Scott, I believe he's someone you're not drafting as well. Why is that? He's not. He's not. And I'm not being really picky about who I take at starting pitcher because I think there are there are concrete risks for just about all of them. And I think, you know, all of them basically have psayun potential. So I don't really see the upside to being nitpicky.

I just kind of want whoever falls in my lap. Like Snell never seems to be the one who falls in my lap. And in fact, when once like Shane Bieber and Clevenger and Flaherty are off the board and I'm sitting there looking at Snell, I'm like, do I have to take him? I really don't want to. And it's, it's because, like we know he's not going to have a 180-ERA again, like in 2018.

His ex-PIP was about three both that year in 2019. So, okay, he could probably have a three-R-A. He could be a high-inch pitcher if that happens. But we know he's not going to be that 189 ERA guy in 2018. And the only reason he was able to win 21 games that year was because of that. He was a low, the fact he won 21 games that year with 180.2 innings pitched is miraculous. And of course, never would have happened if he had a 180, if he had a normal ERA, it wasn't 189, right?

So he's never going to win 21 games again. He's never going to have a 189 ERA again. That 2018 season is never going to happen again. I think it's fair to say unless he suddenly takes on a bigger workload. But the way the race handled him last year, I have no hope for that whatsoever. He is a guy who rarely goes even six in a start, much less beyond that, the sort of workload you'd expect for anyone else being drafted in the same tier. And then he has an unresolved elbow issue that he had a cortisone shot for in spring training.

So when you throw that on to everything else, I'm wondering if realistic upside for Snell is worth taking on the risk of the elbow. especially given that. I think it's a large class of starting pitchers there who are capable of doing something comparable, even if it all goes right for Snow. Yeah, I thought you hit it on the head there late, Scott. I think the lead with Snell is the fact that we just don't know what's going to happen with his elbow.

To me, it strikes me that he's a ticking time bomb. Last year he was shut down with elbow and shoulder injuries. He missed a portion of July. He missed all of August. He returned in September. and made three, quote-unquote, starts, where he didn't pitch more than two in a third innings in any of those starts.

So I'm just worried that eventually Blake's now is going to need some kind of major surgery on his elbow, and that could be amplified again in a short season. So at SP, at ADP 40 is the 12th SP off the board. There's no way I can pull the trigger there. I have him as my SP 18 in my rankings, and I'm trying to find a way to lower him even more.

but, I mean, once you get into, like, the Tyler Glassnow range, I mean, Glassnow has about as much risk as Blake Snell does anyway. I think those two pitchers, the risk reward is very similar. So that I tend to rank them right next to each other, too. Obviously, giving Snell a bump because he does have more of a track record. Yeah, I mean, there's just, there's risk there for both of those guys. I think there's probably three starting pitchers I would definitely take over him who are going later than him.

I don't actually disagree. I don't think I've drafted Blake Snell at all this year. That would be Luis Castillo, who's going one spot on average ahead of him, Charlie Morton, who's going three, four at starting pitcher, and Lucas G. Ledo, who's going seven. Those are the three guys who I would definitely rather have than Blake Snell. And Blake Snell is going lower in more recent drafts. Luis Castillo has jumped ahead of him.

and Snell's down to like 48th in NFC drafts since the start of April. Can we just agree that Lucas Golito's fantasy pros ADP is just egregious at 52? Because that's a fifth round pick and it just seems. Yeah. As SP 18 off the board, that just seems crazy to me. I have Jack Flaherty at the top of my list of Do Not draft pitchers and it's really not so much against Jack Flaherty, but more of the price that you have to pay to get him where his ADP is 22.8 and

admittedly, look, I love Shane Bieber. I have a player shirt for Shane Bieber, player nicknames, not Justin name on the back. I love the pitcher, but in terms of ADP, I don't like really any of those pitchers going in the second round. I think you can almost lump Clevenger in that mix. As much as I like Clevenger, I don't really like the price that you have to pay to get him. And the same thing could be said for Flerty. Strasbourg is a second round pick. It seems like we're just kind of looking the other way when it comes to injury risk on Strasbourg.

Shane Bieber, his ADP is 24. It's just all of those prices to seem outrageous for me. Flaherty was great. Final 16 starts, but he also did what he did, a 0.93 ERA over that stretch with a 196 BABIP and a 95% strand rate. Like, those things are just unsustainable. And if he pitches more to a mid-3s ERA,

which I think is realistic, I don't really think he's dissimilar from somebody like Charlie Morton or Lucas Gialito in a redraft league. So why don't you just wait two rounds and draft one of those pitchers instead. I just don't think he's a mid-3 ZRA guy. Sorry, Scott.

Go on. I think he's proved to be better than that. I think it's just unfair to compare anyone to Charlie Morton. He's the best value on the board at starting pitcher, I think, by a mile. Yeah, that's the difference, Adam. And for anyone listening, if you think... If you think Jack Flaherty is better than what I just said, then you should 100% grab him.

To me, I just... I think his slider's really good. I have questions about his fastball. and I just think that, yeah, I think even with the peripherals that we saw last year, while he had that stretch where he was amazing, I think he's probably closer to a mid-3s ERA with 10 or 11 case per night, which is a very good pitcher, but I just don't know that he's worth the price you have to pay to get him.

He does have less risk than it. There's basically this group from Strasbourg, Flaherty, Bieber, Kershaw, and Clevenger. And Patrick Corbyn's right after that, and then there's a little bit of a gas. he probably has the fewest question marks among that group but i agree i don't like his price on the subject of why wouldn't you just wait and take gilito you know you have a lot of starting pitcher spots yeah right take them may just want to have him and gilito which would be my answer

and so you know obviously it makes sense to take clarity where he goes if you're trying to get both of them. But I agree with the general sentiment that, you know, while I do think Flaherty's upside outcome might be a little bit more likely than Gialitos, not enough to, you know, for me to pay significantly more for him. It's just, you know, I want a lot of those guys. And so, you know, I have to pay attention to where they go. And I have to, to some degree, fall in line with it. Adam, who's a pitcher we haven't thrown to you yet that you were avoiding here, starting pitcher in 2020?

I'll just say quickly, Stephen Strasbourg, because he has a history of having a high innings total one year and then getting hurt or underperforming the next year. And his ERA was the lowest of any of the top 12 starting pitchers in points leagues or Roto leagues last year. So of any of the players that finished top 12 in fantasy, he had the highest ERA. So I avoid him. Other than that, I avoid Mike Sorrell. I don't like the profile. It's Stroman-like. And Stroman's had a very up-and-down career.

And when people put the ball in play a lot, you can have those types of seasons. He had an 80% strand rate. It was eighth best in baseball. He's obviously not a huge strikeout guy. So I don't know. It just feels like he could easily go from a 268 ERA to a to a 36080RA or even worse. It just wouldn't surprise me. I just, I did the research. There are a lot of guys who have less than eight strikeouts per nine. are a good one year and are very disappointing the next year. He just feels like Miles Michaelis to me. He feels like Marcus Stroman to me.

I know Scott's going to make the case that there is strikeout upside for Soroka, but until I see it, I'm not going to treat it like it's there. And I avoid him because I just feel like you put the ball in play a lot. You usually have a much higher whip and a lot of lead to bad luck and bad seasons. Scott, I've heard people reference Mike Soroka. as a similar pitcher to Kyle Hendrix, Soroka's ADP is 93.8. Kyle Hendricks is 139,

someone who can get a lot of ground balls, has good command, so he's not going to get hurt in that regard, but doesn't really get many strikeouts. Is that a fair comp? I think the fairer comp is Yon Jiu, actually. Okay. If you're assuming he doesn't improve as a strikeout pitcher,

I think Jung Jind Riu is fair, because the extent to which he gets ground balls, it's more Riu-like and control-wise. they're both elite as well. So they're both thriving on the other two legs of the fifth triangle. I would agree the strikeouts are the most important one if we were ranking them. But if somebody's good, if somebody's excellent at two of the three, they're probably going to be a really good pitcher.

But Ryu is a better strikeout pitcher. Ryu is around eight per nine and Stroch has been 7.4 and 7.3 per nine. And that's a pretty big difference. Like, I agree the comparison is better than the other, but still, Ryu does get more strikeouts. He's not quite in the Dallas Kikl class as either a ground ball pitcher or as a strike thrower, or at least in terms of avoiding walks,

because Dallas Kiko weirdly actually did not ever throw strikes when he was good, but guys couldn't stop swinging at it anyway. He's a good example, too, Chris. I mean, Kikl's had some up and downness in his career. But Kikl's command is a lot worse than Sorokas, though. What was it? Kikl's command is a lot worse than Sorokas. Oh, no, I mean,

well, forget about the first two years of his career when he was just a bad pitcher. Yeah, command is hard to quantify, but he had a 5.9, 5.6, and 6.9% walk rate over the course of three years and had another season with 6.6. his control at least was pretty much elite and keichael you know what made him so effective without having like super great stuff was he never threw in the strike zone but he was able to garner swings on pitches outside of the strike zone at an elite level um and it's just i think that the biggest thing is just it's an incredibly thin tightrope to walk i don't i actually saroka's on my do not

draft list, but I don't hate his value. He's a good example of how much smarter the fantasy industry has gotten. He's going about a hundredth, and that seems reasonable. He's like the 25th starting pitcher off the board or something. 10 years ago, he might have been a top 10 starter as a 23 year old coming off a season like that, but we've gotten smarter. And so I don't want to draft him, and I won't probably in any leagues, but there's very little downside to drafting. Do you guys quickly want to mention who else you have on your

do not draft list, not that will kind of go in depth on each player, but I also have Bauer, I have Kluber, I've talked a lot about those guys. Mike Minor is someone just a little bit later on. There's just pictures that go after him that I think have more upside. I don't really buy the breakout from Mike Miner last year. So those are the ones that round out the rest of my do not draft team. Scott, who else do you have? We have a lot of crossover here with the starting pitchers, actually we both had Snell, we both have Bauer, we both have Kluber. I also have Madison Bumgarner and I have Robbie Ray just because I really have no hope of him taking another step forward.

And I think really all he brings to the table is strikeouts. Oh, really, though, because it wasn't, were you not encouraged by his, what did he do, altered his position on the mound and it was supposedly helping his control, which just felt like it was similar. to what Blake Snell did. And I would totally with you, I have no, I always argued against Robbie Ray. And I know why you don't like him because he never

goes six innings. But I thought it was, I thought he was making a legitimate improvement with his control in the spring. Yeah, I do remember hearing something about that now, that you bring it up. But it's, you know, it's, it's too flimsy and it's not the first time.

There have been reports of of him doing something to improve his command. I'm just going to put it on the spring training radar. That's all. Let's put it on the radar. That's fine. I do want to touch on something that Bauer, Kluber, and Bumgarner have in common, and that it's also something I wrote about yesterday.

And it's that the main thing that was elevating those three in the rankings was workload expectation, the fact that they were going to be among, the, well, assuming Kluber, you know, held together and was Glover again. They were going to be among the biggest innings eaters in baseball. And when you're talking about half the season, there's going to be less opportunity for them to pull away from the pack in that area. So I think it I think it makes sense to draft like a Jesus Luzardo

over them now, somebody who, you're not as confident he's going to hold up all season, but you're confident the impact he's going to make from the start when with Bauer, Kluber and Bumgarner the downside all three present you know they just may not be

they may not get you out of the out of the boxes fast and that's going to be important this year as quickly as a half season is going to go by I think I put who's the third one Bauer Kluber and Bumgarner I think I

put Bumgarner in a very separate category. He's not on my official do not draft list, but I certainly have not drafted him, I don't think. And I've drafted some Bauer and Kluber. And the reason I have is we have seen elite skills from both Bauer and Kluber in the very recent past. In both cases, it was 2018. Bumgarner, it's like 2016. It's the last time we've really seen like truly elite skills from him. So I don't even know if the the upside is there where at least with Kluber and Bauer, I can see them

coming out and having a 2-6 ERA. Before we reveal our relief pitchers that we are not drafting in 2020, we did get a request from Tyler. This was an email that we received. I listened to Monday's pod where you guys discussed Lorenzo Kane that was part of our

MLB team word association. Not going to lie. I've missed a few episodes since quarantine started, but it's been a while since I've heard Scott's Michael Kane impression. I know Low Kane is not the most relevant fantasy player these days, but just want to make sure Scott can still do it. One of my favorite bits from the show. I'm not sure I can still do it. It's been a while, but we'll get a shot here. You got a stretch. I once knew a man named Lorenzo, last name Kane, like mine only spelled differently, no E. So I've been stuck in my house for COVID-19.

Unable to take my usual trips to the supermarket for blueberries and strawberries. Well, you've got to protect an old bloke like me. I've been placing my orders through the internet. Every Wednesday, a young man, no more than 19, comes to my door. He's wearing a mask. He's carrying bags. He's trying not to breathe in my face. He says to me, hello, sir.

Did you order some groceries? I say to him, yes, sir, you can leave them right there beside the door. He says to me, sorry, sir, but do I know you from somewhere? I say to him, perhaps, sir, have you seen the dark night? He says to me, no, sir, it was Muppet Christmas Carol. It was about this time that one of the bags rips open, spilling his contents onto the ground. As he leans over to pick them up, I see it out of the corner of my eye. a stick of margarine.

I say to him, this simply won't do for the rows I prepared. He says to me, no, sir. I say to him, no, sir. I prefer my bread, buttery. As opposed to marjority? That's right. Yes.

Delightful, fantastic job by Scott White. Guys, who are the relief pictures that you are avoiding here in 2020? Let's go back to a little Michael Cain, Got white. So should I give them both? Yes, we did it kind of. I never gave the rest of my starting pitchers, you join either.

I thought you did. Okay. Well, you guys get penalized for arguing about Clevenger for 10 minutes. Fine. All right, so my two are Craig Kimbril is probably the more boring one. And Josh Hater. Let's go. Yeah, me too, only in points.

I'm a boy. Yeah, because Josh Hader is part of what's the point? Tap Hap AMC. Tap Hap AMC. Okay. Tap Hap AMC. Sorry. Yeah, no, I mean,

Josh Hater is a recent development for me, actually. I mean, granted, I don't like paying up for relievers. I can't remember a year ever where I drafted the top ranked reliever. But Hater is a special kind of top ranked reliever because he's such an outlier with a strikeout. So I might be able to at least get behind it in theory. Except now I have this growing concern. that he won't actually be the Brewer's save leader this year. And in fact, may not be the intended closer from the start.

And frankly, I don't think we'll know until we're a couple save chances in to 2020 because I don't believe a word Craig counsel says about this subject. So Corey Konebel coming back for Tommy John surgery, and of course was a really good reliever who was their primary ninth inning option before having Tommy John surgery. he wasn't supposed to be back until mid-late May. Obviously, that's, you know, he's going to be recovered in time for the start of the season now. And I think it's much easier for a manager to make a change at the back end of the bullpen,

like from the get-go as opposed to when we're in the middle of the season and things are going well, so you don't want to mess with it, right? You don't want to remove Hater from that role when he's doing the things Hater does and doing it well. But I think from the start of the season, if counsel goes back to his previous stance of, you know, I want to keep Hayter versatile. I want him there for multiple innings, the highest leverage situation, no matter what inning it is, then I think there's a good chance. Kneb is actually the closer. And I've really wrestled with the idea of moving Hater down in my rankings because of that. I haven't quite gotten to the point where I can talk to myself into moving them behind Yates, let's say, Kirby Yates.

But I really don't want anything to do with them because I feel like the risk is pretty high. Yeah, for the reasons Scott mentioned, I worry about Conebble returning as well, led the Brewers and Saves Bowl, 2017 and 2018. Josh Hader is one that I'm avoiding. Same thing with Liam Hendricks. Chris, I know you've talked about Liam Hendricks. Is he on your list? Absolutely. And really, I could kind of put like the entire top 10 at relief pitcher on my do not draft list.

You know, early on in, you know, February and March, it kind of looked like the relievers were going to go. significantly later than they have in past years. And as we've gotten on and on, you've got three closers in the top 75, another one in the top 80, four more in the top 100, which is pretty normal. Which is weird because we're coming off

an incredibly strange year for closers where all of the elite guys basically, except for Chapman and Hader, I guess, really hurt you. And so I, I'm just surprised that those prices keep getting pushed up. And in Hendricks's case, like, he threw a lot of innings for a reliever last year, 85, which was, I believe, fewer than, oh, man, I'm blanking on the name.

The Oakland Athletics guy who had PED suspension. Not Blake Trinidon. No, the starter. Oh, Frankie Montas. Frankie Montas. He threw fewer innings than Frankie Motas, who we have lots of questions about whether he can, sustain what he did last season. And he missed half the season with suspension.

So that's just to illustrate how small these sample sizes are with relievers. And I think you should always be skeptical of one-year breakouts, especially this late in their career. When it comes from a reliever, you should absolutely have tons of doubt. And especially with the Oakland Athletics, who I believe have not had a pitcher lead their team in saves. I want to say since Andrew Bailey in concept,

executive years. They've had a different saves leader in six straight years. It was Grant Balfour. Grant Balfour. There you go. Um, so it's just, they are, they have a quick hook. Liam Hendricks has a very limited track record of being even a good reliever, really. Um, yeah, he started throwing harder last year, but I still, uh, I'm still skeptical. And then the other one for me, it's Nick Anderson. He was awesome last year. He was arguably the best reliever in baseball. Again, really small sample size,

especially what he did upon getting to the raise was a tiny sample size. He was good, but not at that level with the Marlins. And I just have no reason to believe he's going to get half of their safes. So for me, it's just I have no interest in drafting him with a 12th round pick, which is where he's going right now. Adam, take us home. You said you're not drafting Josh Hader in a points league.

Who's the other relief pitcher? Kenley Jansen, I think it's so obvious. It's very possible that he's just going to be done soon. But I think we're overrating Corey Canable. I just want to say that. One, you ask stats we look at for relief pitchers. I think whip is a really important stat. And if you don't have a sub one whip,

you're not one of the best. If you don't have a sub 1.1 whip, I think it's a little worrisome. He did in 2018, barely, but before that, I mean, he did. 2017 was Canabel's great year, and he had a 1.16 whip. So he walks a lot of guys.

He's coming off missing an entire season due to injury. I think it's a little bit of a leap to just think they're going to give the closers roll back to him when Hater is the best belief pitcher in baseball. And even if Hater does lose that job, he's still going to strike out, well, per a full set. season, you know, 120, 125 batters.

He's still going to give you an elite ERA. He's still going to give you an elite whip. He's still going to be worth rostering. Like if I said Josh Hader was going to get no saves, where would you take him in Roto? I mean, I think you could justify it in like the 11th or 12th round, which obviously is not where he's going, but at least it's not a total bust. Yeah.

In Roto Lake, it probably still be a top 15 reliever for me. Yeah, where did a... He wasn't a closer. Where did Dylan Batances used to get drafted? I feel like it was later than that. It was later than that. But Hayter's better. I think there's a good chance

even if Kneville is the primary night-dending option for the Brewers. Hater would still get double-digit saves just because there would be enough games where he starts the eighth inning and then just stays through the night. That's basically how they were handling him. But do not take him in a points league

because he had the fewest fantasy points of any number one reliever in the past 10 years in the head-to-head points leagues. The fact that he pitches multiple innings when he goes out, they can't use him as frequently as a typical closer. So he can't get the same save totals. So it's a bit of a trap at a points league. Don't draft Josh Hader.

And he's getting a little worn down after really heavy usage early on in the season each of the last two years. I want to say one thing about Kinebel, because I don't think most people are that concerned about the whip, 1.16, 1.08, the next. They might look at the 2018 358 ERA and get Kinebel. concerned about that. But A, it was the year prior to his Tommy John surgery. And B, the narrative on Kinebel heading into last year before needing the Tommy John surgery was he was coming off one of

those fission finishes like we're talking about from Nick Anderson. That he had just a ridiculous six-week stretch to end 2018 where he looked like the best reliever in baseball after, you know, curiously struggling before that. So I, yeah, I think Kinebel, it really is. genuinely an elite reliever. Chris is raising his hand. I want to make one more point. I agree with Adam that there's a lot of risk with Kenley Jansen. However, he is someone who I believe worked with driveline baseball this year

with the hope of getting back his velocity. And there were promising reports out of spring training. You know, he didn't pitch at all in spring training of 2019, right? I can't remember. I think it was 2018. I agree with you that that changed the equation for me. Otherwise, I probably would have been right there with Adam.

And look, I don't know that it's going to save Kenley Jansen, but I have enough optimism based on the things we've heard about driveline baseball doing for pitchers that I'm just kind of noncommittal with Kenley Jansen, I guess, in terms of whether he's washed up or not. Yeah, it's worth mentioning. at the very least.

All righty, that'll do it. Our Do Not Draft Pitcher Edition, some Mike Clevenger debate, and also some pitching evaluation earlier on in the show. Tomorrow we will get to our Tetsuto Yamada prospect evaluation for you guys out there who want to learn more about the Mike Trout of Japan.

Continue to send those prospects in and leave your five-star Apple podcast reviews. We'll do that tomorrow on the show for Adam, Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening. Bye-bye.