Fantasy Baseball Today - Drafting the First Two Rounds for 2027! (10/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 15, 2026

Ohtani over PCA (4:07)? ... How much will PCA regress (9:47)? ... Should Bobby Witt Jr. be the third overall pick (13:43)? ... How early on Aaron Judge (21:18)? ... Yordan Alvarez is back in the first round (32:18)! ... Should James Wood be drafted higher (40:45)? ... We jump into the second round with Jose Ramirez (50:25). ... Should Corbin Carroll still be a second-round pick (56:15)? ... We wrap up with the rest of the second round (1:06:37).Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for the newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday. Almost Thursday. October 15th, I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.

Today on the show, we are drafting the... the first two rounds for next season. Chaos. We know that this past year, the first two rounds were quite bad. Scott, you have hypothesized that the first two rounds could look quite different

for different people, different analysts, different players across the industry. And I think we're going to see a lot of that here. So are you ready? I mean, we only have one first round. So I don't know how different it can look. We're doing the first two rounds.

Well, okay. A sample of one for each round. though. Yeah. I'm being a smart, Alec, I'm sorry. Yeah. I was diving deep into these players

over the past couple days and trying to put them in an order. It was just... Yeah. It's hard. I think there are various tiers throughout that I feel pretty good about. But the order within each tier,

I don't rent that I think... I mean, we'll see. I think after number one, it's really wide open. I don't even know if we have a consensus. number one pick, to be honest. I don't, I don't think we do. I don't think we do.

At the end of the year, you had a different number one than I think the consensus will be. Yeah. We are also doing this live during the NLCS game three. So it's kind of a watch party. Thanks for being here. If anything crazy happens, I'm sure we'll react. If Showhead of Tani gets a hit? Yeah, then we automatically

bump him up a few spots in the drafts. You guys realize if he doesn't get a home run today, it's officially the longest he's ever gone in the majors without a home run. I did not know that. It'll be 25 straight games. He has not homered since August 18th. Very fair talking point. Now, will he be the first overall pick?

We are going to alternate picks. Scott is up first, followed by Chris. Then me will go in order. I'll throw up a Google sheet for those watching here on YouTube. Google Sheet. Is that now what it is? I don't know. You said a goo-goo.

Google? Baby talk over here. Google Sheet. Scott, you're on the class. I think I got sheet. Ah, well, since I'm number one. Oh, don't do it. I guess that means Shohei Otani is too.

I'm here for it. Show Hey Otani. Make it so. Obviously, he's been bad. He's been hurt. He's dealing with... Actually, it started in June with a knee issue. And that's kind of led to this cascade of other injuries

that he's attempted to play through. did finally go on the aisle toward the end of the regular season. But I don't think enough time to make him healthy again, clearly. But he was, he would look like he was trending toward his fourth straight thousand OPS season prior to that knee injury in June. The OPS wasn't quite at a thousand, but it had been trending up. And he was, he was looking really good. And I think an offseason of rest is all he needs to get him back on track.

and with the kind of elite track record he has, I'm not willing to pass him up with the first pick. You could say, well, you passed him up with the first Rick pick this last year with Aaron Judge. But I think, you know, Aaron Judge being four years older, you know, he's getting into his late 30s now. I'm a little more concerned about the age catching up to him than I am with Otani. and Pete Crow Armstrong, who's probably going to be the consensus choice for number one overall, you know, he's once, he's once given us a year of a first round-worthy season. Obviously, 2025 was also really good, but I, you know, not enough to get him drafted in the first round or even the second round.

So I think it's a little too quick to anoint him the top overall player, especially when you have somebody as reliably studly as Shohay Otani available. So Otani, I think, is the only player I take ahead of PCA, but unless we get some negative reports about his health this offseason or in spring training, I'm going to lean Otani over PCA. So I will say Otani is old enough that if he's in his decrees, Klein phase, I wouldn't be shocked. He's 32. He turns 33 next July. And look, I think part of the problem is, you're right, Pekar Armstrong's only done it once. But, show Heotani has also only had

one season in his career that was better than Pekar Armstrong's 2026, at least according to Fangraph player. And so if I'm going to take a DH-only player, first overall. One, it'd be really nice if he stole a bunch of bases. And I just don't think you can count on that for Motani anymore. I think that's, I think the days of him being anything more than 15 to 20 steel guy are completely done. Unless I guess he's not pitching.

Maybe that's a different factor. But I think that's likely or it's likelyer that he's a 15 steel guy than a 30 steel guy in 2027. And two, I just, if I'm going to take a DH-only player first overall, I really need there to be no questions. And I think there was questions. There was questions about Otani coming into this year, wasn't there? There was questions about Otani coming into two years ago. Right.

There's always questions. Well, sure. But then he did have an underwhelming season. Not two years ago. No, but in 2020. Not coming off the 50-50 season. Remember, he was banged up in the post-season as well. Yeah, he had the shoulder thing.

Yeah, he dislocated his shoulder. It was like it was a more serious injury than the kind of injuries he's dealing with now, at least as far as we know. Part of what makes this so hard is just I have no idea. He hasn't looked like a major league caliber hitter in like eight weeks now. Because he's hurt. Like you don't think he just stopped being a major league. No, no, right, right, right.

A hundred percent. But because I don't know what the nature of the injury is, it's really, really hard to say that it's not going to be something that lingers, you know? Setting an over-under on home runs, just home runs for these two players, Otani and PCA next year. What would your over-under for each of them be,

home runs? I'd probably go 40 and a half for Otani, 35, 34-and-a-half for PCA. That sounds fair. Okay. Yeah, I think we're about on the same page. like Otani, I think, is a lock-it-in 40-homer guy, potentially more if he's healthy.

PCA, what do you think? Obviously, he hit 45 home runs this year. It was 31 the year before, so still very good. I think he's more like a mid-30s homer guy on average than mid-40s or even 40. Of course, home runs aren't the only category, but that's just like we all agree PCA is probably not going to do this again. No. Probably not.

Yeah, I did write kind of a rough, expectation projection for myself just for like the five categories. Otani, I wrote down 270 to 280, 35 to 40 homers, 110 to 120 runs, 100 RBI 10 to 15 steals, which obviously would be an awesome season. And then I have PCA at like 35, 35, between a 260 and 270 batting average. So it comes down to what do you want more, basically, between those two.

With that, Chris, you are up with the second pick. And I don't think we need to spend much time on it because it's peak her Armstrong. I think he should be the first pick. And we should clear, just real quick, we should clarify we're doing this for five by five scoring. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

And so if he falls to me at number two, I'll be thrilled that it happens. I'm not sure Shohei Otani would be my number two pick right now. And maybe I'm just overreacting to what we're seeing right now. I'm not sure he'd be my number three or four. I genuinely have no idea. It is unlike you to suffer from recency bias. You are Mr. Draft Christian McCaffrey first overall coming off the whatever injury, yeah, torn ACL or something like that.

I think the way this season has played out has been one of my concerns with Otani as a two-way player all along. It's just that what we have seen for the most part in the past is when he's gotten hurt as a pitcher, it has not affected him as a hitter. And I think that seeing the inevitability of, of that take a hit, it shakes me a little bit. It shakes my confidence, especially when we're talking about, you know, Pekar Armstrong is 25 or will be 25 on opening day. And Shohei Otani is 32.

Now, I think it's just as likely that Pekar Armstrong finishes outside of the top 20 as he finishes inside of the top five. But he's got two seasons in a row now where I think on the aggregate, he's been more valuable than Shohei Otani. He was better than his 2026 was better than Otani's 2025. His 25 was better than Otani's 2026. You got what I'm saying? Yeah.

So the combined 25, 26 numbers for Armstrong is ahead. Yeah. Okay. And so I just, I think that's a little safer. It's entirely possible that we get out to February. And it's like, oh, yeah, Shohei Otani. What am I thinking? but I'm, I think he's taken just a little bit of a hit

and I will probably need to get to the offseason before I'm able to put this out of my mind what we're seeing right now. I mean, I think if your entire ethos and idea around your first round pick is to just minimize risk, look, there's risk with a bunch of these players we're going to talk about. Like, even PCA, he's not the safest first overall pick.

But I do think Otani comes with elevated risk because of that pitching and hitting and what that exposes him to. Peekra Armstrong, obviously magical season, you know, 40-40, and made huge improvements against lefties in terms of plate discipline, against non-fastballs. He improved his bat speed. Like, everything was fantastic. Can he maintain all of those improvements?

I'm not entirely sure. And there have been some talks about like Wrigley Field, wind blowing out, like helping his home run total. So again, I'm more so expecting 3535 for PCA and like anything else that you get is fine. But I mostly buy a lot, especially at his age as the improvements he made. It's mostly buying, buying a lot of what we saw here

from Pete Cromch. It's worth pointing out. So I'd have him second behind O'Tani and I'm probably going to be out on a limb with that. I'd have Pekra Armstrong 5th in a Head to Head Point's League, which, you know, isn't that low given, like obviously he made strides as a walker. Huge shots.

Huge shots. So I think compared to where he was last year, like that's the biggest improvement. And the fact that he could be a top five player, could be drafted as a top five player in a points league, I think is to his credit. But there would be a few other hitters ahead of him for me in that format. I have the third pick here

and I think it's completely wide open I think there are probably five to eight different names that you could probably mention here for being the third overall pick. I'm still going to go with Bobby Wood Jr. I understand it was a down season for him and he doesn't offer as much power as other players and obviously

the RBI total was abysmal to just 54 RBI this season but I think it's pretty outlier for him like 80 plus RBI in each of his first four seasons in the majors I think him dealing with the sprain MCL and his knee kind of derailed the middle part of his season a little bit here

and he just underperforms his expected stat too like everything is still awesome under the hood when I dug in here he's still in the prime of his career at 26 years old I think a couple of years ago we kind of saw an out like perhaps the best season of Bobby Witt's career so I'm not expecting that but I would expect him to bounce back in terms of multiple categories here and hit around 25 home runs I think he's probably the best batting average

of the three names that we've mentioned so far between Otani and PCA. He's not going to give you the gaudy counting stats, but I just think the steals will probably be up around 35 to 40 as well for Bobby Witt. So I think there's an argument for like five different names, but I'm still going with Bobby Witt Jr. at number three.

I actually have Witt sixth. I feel like he is a safe pick, but he feels a bit a bit like you're conceding something. You're like you're giving up something too, secure no risk here. Back to back years with fewer than 25 home runs. And the other counting stats for the kind of investment you're making in that lineup,

if he's not a surefire 30-home or bat and he's not going to be a clear plus and RBI, I'm just not that eager to take him here. Now, maybe he'll bounce back with 2024 production again next year. I don't think that's outside their own possibility. But after back-to-back years of really falling short and home runs, he just, he feels more like a top five pick

because you don't want to put somebody else in the top five than because Bobby Witt really deserves it, if that makes sense. If not for the IEL stint, you're probably talking about a 20-home or 50 steel season in 20-26. and the 281 batting average, that's a little disappointing. That's a really good season for most hitters.

And the XBA was 302, the second highest of his career. He's not someone who's underperformed his expected stats consistently. 2026 is the outlier there. I still think he is about as strong a player in average runs and stolen bases as you're going to find, while still being at least a positive contributor at home runs and potentially very good. You know, I don't think 30 homers is the ceiling for Bobby Wood. You know, I think we could see some high 30s homers seasons with how hard he hits the ball. So he would be my number two overall pick.

Like I said, I think after, for me, Pekker Armstrong, it's very wide open. And there are, I think really like four or five players you can make a case for, maybe more, depending on how optimistic you want to be about Aaron Judge. But I do think with the combination of safety and I still think considerable upside makes him the right pick there. It comes down to how you want to build your teams too. I mean, if you're talking from a Roto or category perspective, in a points league, he's going to be a little bit lower here. like probably mid to late first round. But, you know, if you draft Bobby Witt, you're, you're, you could look more at guys like Kyle Schwabber or Pete Alonzo in the back half of the second round.

You don't have to focus as much on batting average. You can kind of get like those three or four category slugger types to pair with him. And vice versa, if you wanted to take a junior Kamenaro or a, Yoron-Alvarez here, I think you could, you know, focus on one of those speedy guys in the mid-to-late second round. So it just comes down to how you want to build your team. But yeah, I still think it's. It's an incredibly high floor for Bobby Witt, and underperforming his ex-slug by 60 points this year.

I just think he's going to bounce back in the power department, even if it's not a massive total. I think he's probably somewhere in that. The same thing, this is going into this year, and he didn't. Like, that's the,

like, when it happens twice in a row, it's harder to say, oh, that was just something. He didn't, he didn't underperform in 2025, though.

Like, he only hit 23 homers, so, but, like, was 47 doubles, six triples. He also hit 30 homers, back-to-back seasons in,

Yeah, and 24. And that just like 47 doubles, 23 homers, that just tells me it's a great power hitter. And like that distribution is going to be slightly different from one year to the next. And I don't really think that's indicative of like a failing on Bobby Wood Jr's part, personally. All right, let's take a quick break. I don't know if we're going to get through two rounds. Maybe one round. We'll see if we can do that.

We'll take a break. We'll be back right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today, drafting the, first two rounds for next season and yeah 20 minutes on three picks there's a lot to talk about there's a lot of decisions here being made and scott we are back to you it is the fourth pick of the draft okay i'm going to go erin judge and i feel a little better about it i i exaggerated his age a moment ago i said he was about four years older than otani he's about two years older than otani we'll turn 35 next april which is getting up there but not quite

late 30s yet. I think he's still really good. The jump and strikeout rate is what scares me the most. But, you know, he was obviously more strikeout prone hitter at the start of his career and was still awesome in fantasy. It just needs to stay healthy. And it's a bigger question as you reach,

as you get deep into your 30s like this. But again, I think the track record is, it's not like he was just another first round player, Aaron Judge. He was historic, all time, put your fantasy team on his back and get you over the finish line kind of player. And that's what I want to use my first round pick on when I have the advantage of picking this early in a draft. And I think the odds are he's going to stay held.

healthy next year. So looking at Aaron Judge in April, apparently he first heard his rib in late April and then he went on the eye. He didn't go on the eye until like late May or early June. So he tried to play through it for a while and it affected his numbers. But through April, he played 31 games. He hit 252 with 12 homers, five steals and an OPS just over a thousand. Full season pays 62 homers, 26 steals. Now, I'm not expecting him to run like that anymore, especially coming off the calf injury. So when he was healthy, batting average was lower,

but like the power production was still there when he was healthy this season. I just really worry about the health man. Like a dude that big in his mid-30s coming off of a rib and a calf, I have a more like a late first rounder, but I could be completely wrong about that. Like he can very easily finish as the top player

and fantasy once again if he's healthy enough. It's just if you're at all worried about injuries or risk in the first round than I could see like lowering Aaron Judge but yeah I'm a little bit lower Scott has him here at number four

Chris over to you for pick five um okay pick five um I'm gonna go with Ellie de la Cruz and I think there's a lot of different ways you can go in this

spot a couple of outfielders in particular I think will be popular picks but I'm going to go with Ellie Dela Cruz, who I think at this point, the biggest and maybe only thing holding him back is just that the Reds lineup wasn't very good. He scored 99 runs, drove in 79, despite hitting third most of the season, I believe. He went 30-30, he hit 283. The underlying stats, better than they've ever been.

He took a big step forward. I think part of my confidence in Ellie Dela-Cruz is that he took that. that big step forward in 2025 before the quad injury. And that really dragged his numbers down. But he was basically having the same season before he got hurt in 2025. So I'm kind of viewing it as two years at this level of production. Remember, he had a grade two quad strain that he didn't miss a single game from. So I do think that is slightly different than, you know, a lot of the ways we do like the first half, second half thing.

I think in his case, it's pretty. pretty clear what the causal mechanism for his season going down the drain was. I'd prefer if he still looked like a 40 steel guy, and I don't think that's going to happen. But I think 30-30 remains very realistic for L.A. Dela Cruz. I think, you know, the 280-ish batting average, I don't think that's too much to expect from him moving forward, given the gains he's made. and there is still room because he's fixed his issues against lefties at least seemingly in

2026, I think there's still room for one of those 40 plus homer seasons. Certainly he has the physical tools for it. So I think Ellie de la Cruz is a very, very good combination of safety and just huge, huge upside. I still think there's number one

overall player upside here. With the kind of gains Ellie de la Cruz made in batting average, I'm not, sure there's a big difference between him and Bobby Witt anymore. And part of me kind of wanted to nudge Dela Cruz ahead of Bobby Witt. Clearly, I'm down on Bobby Witt. It's more of that I think that I'm high on L.E. De LaCruz. There are a couple outfielders I take ahead of either that we haven't mentioned yet. I think Ellie, it's like, I feel pretty good about him hitting 280, but there's

risk. I think Bobby Witt's a 300 hitter. And the downside is the 280 we just saw. all. Yeah. And so sure, there's a little bit more power with Ellie, but I really don't. I put the overrunner for Bobby Wood at 24 and a half homers personally. I know he hasn't hit that either the past two seasons. I still think that's what the talent level here is. I mean, that's a reasonable over under.

It's still under 25. Sure. Which is a concession in round one, especially the first half of round. Sure, but then it's also 300 average in 45 stables. Yeah. Yeah. I think both guys are incredibly close as well. Just like huge improvements this year for Ellie Dela Cruz.

It's crazy to remember he's still just 24 years old. He's been around for three or four years already, but he got called up so young and just continuing to improve big jumps in terms of quality of contact, improvements against lefties. Obviously, we need him to maintain those, but he's young enough where I could see him progressing in some other ways. And yeah, pretty excited about Lilli Dela Lue, Cruz is like a mid first round pick.

Totally fine with that one. I am up here at pick number six, and I have one of those outfielder that things Scott was just talking about. And that is Juan Soto. I think him versus Bobby Witt is really close. Again, you're just nitpicking with a lot of these players. But Juan Soto obviously dealt with the calf multiple times this year.

But if you look at what he did when he was healthy, it was still 275 batting average. he underperforms his expected stats every year. I think that's kind of just part of the expectation at this point. But his full season pace, 39 homers, 92 runs, 99 RBI, 13 steals. The steals came way down. Obviously, we didn't really know what to do with that last year when he nearly stole 40 bases.

But it backed down to where it usually is. I think you expect 10 to 15 steals. It's going to be a batting average that probably helps you a little bit. And I think the power production and the run counting stuff is this going to be tremendous for Juan Soto. OBP, he actually lowered his strikeout rate, career best strikeout rate. It's like 13% or some.

So, yeah, he's still in the prime of his career. Expect the Mets lineup to bounce back, although we'll say that a lot. Yeah, I think one of the highest floor players here is Wonsoto. And I still think, I don't know if we've seen the true ceiling here with Wonsato. Like, he is still only 28 in a few days. and like he hasn't hit 300 since 2021,

but it never feels impossible for him to hit 300. You know, with the amount of contact he makes, with how hard he hits the ball, how many homers he hits, I still think we could get one of those. It all comes together seasons for Juan Soto where he hits like,

315 with 45 homers and 260 combined runs. And I just absolutely ridiculous. list numbers. I still think there's one of those there because we're talking about you know, really like an all-time great hitter who we haven't really

seen an all-time great-hitting season from yet. Outside of 2020 being the one where he had that like was like a 1200 OPS or something in 2020. Yeah. 1185. Yeah. That's so stupid.

Yeah. Is Soto the safest pick a side from Bobby Witt, I guess, the highest floor pick. I think so. I have them three and four, but I thought it was a toss-up between those. I think so, yeah. I actually have Soto ahead.

And I guess, I guess this, maybe what it is, for me, the biggest issue with Witt, beyond even the home runs, if I have it, like, you obviously only get one first-round pick, and you want him to be an absolute monster, right?

Like, I want somebody who I feel like could get me 110 to 120 RBI slash runs, you know? And I just, because you can't get that. You can't predictably get that anywhere else in the draft. You can get 30 steals, 40 steals, potentially elsewhere on the draft. You can't get those monster run and RBI totals. Yeah, I think both him and Ellie kind of have the same problem in that regard, which is just the line up around them stinks.

Yeah, there's a few of these. players in the first two rounds where you know that they're Uber talented power speed options but the run in RBI totals are kind of up and down for a lot of these guys. It's Bobby Witt, Ellie, Tatis, Tatease hasn't even had the massive run in RBI totals.

You could see the same thing about Julio Rodriguez. You could say the same thing about, I mean Corby has had some big run scored seasons but like the RBI are never high for Carol. So yeah. Carol, I'm, we'll get to it. Yeah. And I get like that could change

look at what happened with the nationals this year. I don't think anyone predicted they'd be the run scoring machine they were. Yeah. I don't think, I don't think there's much reason to think the Royals line up, particularly in the park they play in, is going to make that kind of leap. Yeah, it's like you can point in 2024. That's the one, yeah.

He did do it. And, you know, we have high expectations for Caglione, and Vinnie P, obviously, finished strong once he was healthy once again. and Salvador Perez, you know, kind of a shell of himself, but still popping some home runs and Carter Jensen. Like, I don't know, on paper, I feel like their lineup should be better than the way it's performed. So I don't know.

You don't want to project too much. And I wouldn't expect it, but it's harder to project runs in RBI than home runs and steals, for sure. I wouldn't be surprised, I guess, is what I'm saying, if Bobby Witt still has one of these monster, like run in RBI seasons. All right, Scott, back to you at the 107. Well, a guy who just had a monster season and everything, but stolen bases, I'm going with Yordon Alvarez here,

who retains his outfield eligibility. That's a big win. Not going to be confined to DH. And I'm sure Chris would agree. I don't think anything he did this year was beyond his capabilities. I think this was the kind of year we were anticipating for Jordan Alvarez, if health didn't bring him down first. unfortunately it didn't

still in his prime I would say with Judge potentially slowing obviously I'm taking Judge before Alvarez as I did in this draft but let's say judge takes another step back this year

Alvarez may be trending toward being that kind of filling that kind of void in the draft pool in the future and I think he should be a slammed dunk first rounder again. I actually haven't been my top five.

I agree. And on a per 162 game pace from 2022 to 2025. So that includes a bad 2025. His per 162 game pace was a 300 average, 101 runs, 40 homers, 112 RBI. That's basically what he did last season. Yeah. Like, that's just, I kind of think we got a little bit of a best case scenario from Jordan Averess.

Like it was the highest OPS Plus of his career. I think we got closer to a median Yordon Averest season last year than a best case scenario, at least, you know, in terms of the production. Obviously, staying healthy may be a best case scenario for him. But I think as long as he's on the field, this is just what Yordaun Averaz is. Underperformed his expected stats. Yeah. So he won a batting title while underperforming his expected batting average.

It's really hard to do. I mean, I pointed it out before last season. Since he entered the league, I think he was second in the majors in WRC Plus behind only Aaron Judge. Maybe it was behind Juan Soto as well, but he was no worse than like third. He's just this good as a hitter. Mm-hmm. Let the majors in batting average OBP and slug. Yeah.

And he was close to what he was. The true triple crown. He was close to winning the triple crown too. Again, the biggest bugaboo that we always point to with Alvarez is he averaged just 117.6 games played per season from 2021 through 2025. But fun with arbitrary endpoints. At least 147 games in two of the last three seasons. That's pretty good.

I don't know. I don't know if there's any injury risk there. Yeah. Him versus Judge, I think, is an interesting conversation. You could tell me you want to go Alvarez because he's healthier now. and he's coming off the healthier season. But I think if Judge, if Judge plays more games than Alvarez, I would bet on him having a better season than, than you're on Alvarez.

I just don't know if I could expect that. They're back to back in my own personal rankings. Chris, over to you for the 108. Okay, this is a tough one. And I think I'm going to give just the teeniest, tiniest, tiniest edge to maybe the only time I'm willing to play the position. scarcity game. And that is giving a little tiebreaker to Fernando Tatech Jr.

Who is second base eligible because second base is not good looking ahead. Now, I think the thing about second base is it will be better than it looks because that's always the case. Somebody will gain second base eligibility. But man, a lot of really good second baseman from 2026 will not have eligibility for 2027. And so if you want to place position scarcity, I think the difference between Fernando Tate's and Junior Cominero or James Wood is slim enough that I'm okay giving the edge to Fernando Tatis. There's a little bit of the positional scarcity with Junior Cominero, but I think on the whole

third base is in better shape than second. So yeah, I got that. I will go to for Fernando Sucy. I like I wrote my state of the second base position for the FBT newsletter. Yes. yesterday. And there were multiple times that I wrote about a player. And I was like, wait, let me make sure he doesn't have second. Curtis Meade does not have second base eligibility. Zach Aloff, one game short of second base eligibility. Sal Stewart, like just a ton of the best second. I think three of the top five second baseman. Yeah, Otto Lopez, Luis Garcia, and Saddam Rafael, all not carrying. So three of the top six from this season, all not carrying second base eligibility. Zach Gelloff also, Brooks Lee, Maricio DuPont. Yeah, just a lot of the really helpful second baseman are just not eligible this season. So I'm up to shortstop in my position-to-position rankings, which means I've done both third and second.

Bryson Stott is 16th for me at third base. He's 11th at second base. That sounds right. Honestly, my assumption just going into the off-season is that third base would be much harder to fill. or just more scarce than second base. But obviously, you guys are presenting fair arguments here. Fernando Tatis, just the reminder that in the first 55 games,

he kind of changed his batting stance, and it clearly did not work. He did not hit a home run in his first 55 games. After he hit his first home run, his final 104, 299, 25 home runs, 24 steals, a 914 OPS. I think we have an idea what to expect just, like, year-over-year production. We've seen this now from Tatis.

but is there a chance that he could carry over what he did for the final four months and there's this like unseen upside for Tatis? I absolutely think there's 35 Homer 40 stolen base potential here for Fernando Tatis and those massive, massive counting stats we've been talking about. I think he has that 115 RBI or 115 run 90 RBI upside. I think the Padre's lineup doesn't feel great. but they were very good in the second half once he got hot. And yeah, I think he absolutely, like,

he is one of the players that I think has, if he's the number one player in fantasy in 2027, I really wouldn't be surprised at all. His per game production from the day he hit his first home run, May 23rd on, I know we're drafting for Roto here, but head to head point per game production from the first home run on, a flat four points per game, the only hitter who was better than that

for the season was Pete Crow Armstrong. I don't like who was, when was the last time we had a second base eligible player this good? I know Trey Turner when he went to the Dodgers he picked it up. Yeah. But I think Tatees has

is potentially even better than that. Yeah. I think a little more well-rounded, yeah. All fair points there on Tatees. The number nine pick for me here, you know who it is. Comenero Junior Comenero, one of the

Locked in, best four category producers in the game right now. Not a huge batting average help, but obviously one that doesn't hurt you either. I think he's going to hit around 270 to 280 somewhere in there. But made improvements again this season,

improved his plate discipline. He walked more this year. He got that OBP up, back-to-back seasons up over 40 home runs. I think he's going to give you around 200 plus runs plus RBI. Not going to give you anything in steals, but still just 23 years old.

There is a chance that he just continues to get better as well. No issues hitting in Tropicana Field this past year. I think the expectation is, yeah, 40, 100, 100, 275, but at 23, like, could still get better. I mean, there's a chance that we can get like maybe a near 50 home run season if he improves the launch angle just a little bit here for Junior Kevinero. So feel pretty safe about him. Scott back to you for pick number 10.

I think this is pretty easy because Tatis and Komenero are gone and this threesome feels like a tier and rounding it out as James Wood. Hard to remember maybe, but he and P. Crow Armstrong were neck and neck for a player of the year honors

before James Wood went down with an oblique injury. Cost him about a month. And when he returned, he scuffled only Homer twice and 169 plate appearances which brought down his percentages but he was around a thousand OPS before then.

Hang out a second. I was looking at second half numbers. He didn't quite get 169 plate appearances after returning. In fact, he didn't Homer at all after returning. Yeah, it was like a 923 OPS before he went on the I.L. And he was still having the strikeout issues. Like the strikeout rate was still high. The launch angle was still an issue.

But it didn't really seem to matter. 30 Homer 17 steals by the end of August. And that was by the beginning of August. August. If he, he went on the aisle, August 3rd. If James Wood is doing that kind of stuff

is able to produce like that, even with those glaring flaws, then just imagine if he made any kind of ground, made up any kind of ground in those two areas, the launch angle and the strikeout rate. He has top player and fantasy kind of upside for sure. And I think to get him as late as pick 10, feels like a huge win.

I think you could take him as high as pick four or five, if you wanted to make that case for James Wood. Again, my expectation here, I think he probably hits mid-30s and home runs, 20 plus steals, batting average probably in like the 260 to 270 range. But again, like, he's only 24 years old. Like, this is another guy that just continues to get better.

I don't really want to put a cap on what he could be. That's just like a median expectation. He could just blow the doors off and have this nuclear season where he goes like 40, 30, or like even more than 40 home runs. So it's, yeah, pretty awesome stuff there from James Wood. Before we go on to 11, I mean, Chris is ultimately going to decide it for this draft. But I feel like this is the top tier for the first round.

I was about to say the exact same thing. Okay, sorry to take the words out of your mouth then. Like, we could quibble about the order of these 10 and we have, but I feel like the drop-off happens after here. Well, and frankly, I'm not even sure there's a drop-off. It's just the next tier. You guys may disagree, but I think there are just three very different types of players

who should be drafted in Quicks and succession once these 10 are off the board. And so I will get us started with the second best player in fantasy in the 2026 season. Jacob Izirowski, the best pitcher in baseball last year. Nobody knows what the future holds,

and that's doubly true for pitchers. but it is hard to ask for much more than the pitcher Jacob Mizirowski emerged as in 26. He threw 174 and two-thirds innings. He averaged. He had a 180 ERA. He had a, let's get that number correct, 0.80 whip. This is historic stuff, a 38% strikeout rate. He ended the season with 252 strikeouts. The control just got better. as the season went on to the point where it was a legitimate strength for Jacob Izzyarous. He only watched 6.6 percent of batters. That is just outstanding stuff.

I have no idea how sustainable this all is. He is a beanpole who throws 105 miles an hour. It all feels like it's going to end in tragedy someday. But this is as skilled. a pitcher as you could possibly have. And that's worth a first round pick, I think, especially when there are pretty big question marks among the remaining hitters. So I will just get the pitcher started with Jacob Izirowski.

That's where I would have gone to. That's what I was getting at when I said, like, when the drop-off happens at the hitters and there are pitchers as good as we have at the top of the draft pool this year, I think that's where you slot them in. Yeah, I think any of the, well, no, Jacob Mizirowski should be the first pitcher. After him, I think there's two perfectly fine options, but I think it should be Mizirowski, just what he did. I don't think we're going to get 200 innings from him. I think there will always have to be some limiters on him, but if we get 180 innings out of him, he almost did that this year.

He can take, he can add a full run to his ERA. and I don't know, a quarter to his whip and still be argued by the best pitcher in fantasy. Health is the only question. And it will become an issue at some point. You're just betting on it not being next year, but you're kind of doing that with every pitcher. 100%.

I think there is an argument to be made for Terrick Scouble as the top pitcher drafted, just like track record and how long he's done it. But a big talking point so far since the season has ended is emphasizing skills and talent. and getting the best per inning and per game production from pitchers as you possibly can. And if we're making that argument,

Jacob Izirowski is clearly better than Terik Scoobel right now. Scoobel has been better over the past five years, obviously because he's been pitching longer. But he's also a free agent, like where is he going to wind up? You know, first year of a mega deal, potentially somewhere else. Talks about the Mets matching, like, any potential deal that he can get this offseason.

You know, the Mets are kind of the Mets. So I hope that doesn't affect anything. but yeah, I still think Scoobo is awesome and kind of in play for that SP1. The next player I have up here actually is a teammate of Jacob Mizirowski and that is Jackson Trio who himself is still incredibly, incredibly young. He turns 23 in March, which is crazy to imagine.

He missed time to start the year coming back from the fractured hand, but when he played, it was 25 home runs, 23 steals, his full season pace, 31 homers, 122 runs, 95 RBI, 29 steals, again, as a 22-year-old. 2.99 batting average, too. Yeah, made huge improvements in terms of his quality of contact. You know, previous years was like,

eh, the stat-cast stuff isn't very good, he hasn't hit the ball hard, but, you know, he has all this prospect pedigree, so, you know, let's not overthink that. Now we don't have to overthink it. Like, he legitimately hits the ball very hard, the stack-cast number's improved, and he's only getting better.

And I think he's going to continue to get better. So my expectation is like, you know, fair 25, 25, 25. But, I mean, I think he could be a 30, 30, maybe even compete to be like a 35, 35, 35 player as soon as next season is Jackson Trio. So I have him here at the turn at pick 12th. Just to underline that point again, he doesn't turn 23 until about two weeks before next year's scheduled opening day. Like he's 22 and is 22 for a while. It's just, it's, yeah, it's remarkable. Yeah, he is a freak.

So again, our first round here so far, well, I guess it's the first round. It's over. But, Shohei Otani, Pete Crow, Armstrong, Bobby Wood Jr., Aaron Judge, Ellie De La Cruz, Juan Soto, Yoron Alvarez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jr. Camerero, James Wood, Jacob Mizirowski, and Jackson Trio. Let's take our final break, and I don't know, we'll talk and figure out what we want to do here for the second round. We'll do that right after this. The Stratotech tea from Viori is one of those shirts you put on once and immediately get why people love it.

It's incredibly soft. Stretches with you, dries fast, and still looks sharp enough to wear from a workout to the ballpark without missing a B. It's become my go-to tea for pretty much everything. Head to Viori.com slash pod 20 for 20% off your first purchase. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. We just drafted the first round for 2027.

I'll throw this guys your way. Like, do we try to, I don't know, a minute. We're drafting the second round. A minute per pick here for the second round. We're doing it. We got to go faster, but we're doing it. We're all on the clock 60 seconds per pick.

Scott, you're up. First pick of round two. Oh, we don't snake here. Oh, yeah, I guess we probably do do that. All right, I'm on the clock with the first pick of round two. And let's go back over to my handy. handy list here and see who I have. My next player is Jose Ramirez.

And part of that is position scarcity, although you guys are kind of convincing me that perhaps third base is not as bad as we thought. I just think this was a completely injury-riddled season for Jose Ramirez. When you look at his numbers

before he got hurt, before he suffered the hamate bone injury, 72 games, he was only hitting 239. He had 10 homers, 42 runs, 33 RBI, 24 steals. His XBA during that span was 280. His ex-slug was

444. Those expected stats are basically right in line with what he did in 2025. So I just think that his season got completely wrecked by this hand injury. Obviously, he's looked like himself in the postseason. He's hit two home runs. Yeah, I would expect him to bounce back

similar to what he did in 2025. I think it's a good batting average. I think it's like modest home runs, probably like 25-ish. Lots of steals. I think the county stats will bounce back. And again, the third base position, I think is not great. So I'm not overthinking it.

I still think he's like a borderline first round pick. I think this is the biggest surprise so far to me because I had Jose Ramirez is only my fourth third baseman. He's going second here. And that pushed him into round three for me overall. So you're all going with first pick of round two. Now, I decided that before the playoffs started. And you're right that may be the fact that he,

has hit as many home runs so far in the playoffs as he did during that entire time back from the hand injury, paints a rosier picture on it. But he's in his mid-30s. He has a much smaller margin for error in terms of fading because he never hit the ball all that hard like Otani and Judge do. I don't know. That shows how much room there is for disagreement here because I had Jose Ramirez an entire round later. And yet it doesn't necessarily feel wrong for him to go 13. overall. That's a lot later than we're used to seeing him go.

Yeah, I'm 16th. He's my number two third baseman, so I'm kind of in the middle of you guys. But I can hear both edges because it's like the question I kind of want to ask with both judge and Jose Ramirez. And I think they're the only two that are this old. But it's like, how much do you want to bet on the 34-year-olds bouncing back? Like, is that historically a good bet? You know, we talked about it with like Chris Sale, with like, like, oh, well, you know, players of that caliber don't age the same. But what we said was unless they start showing signs of decline. And I think we saw a little bit of that with Ramirez and Judge. Extenuating circumstances across the board for both of them make it hard to write them off.

But they're definitely two very, very risky players here. Yeah, I think that's all fair. Again, I just, if you look at the numbers pre-surgery, I know, like, on the surface, they're not great. but his expected stats, his average EV, his barrel rate, it's all pretty much in line with 2025. None of us, none of us were worried about him when he got, until he got. It's really just after it. That's the concern. But he's helping to alleviate those concerns with his postseason performance.

We'll see how long that continues. All right, Chris, over to you. Pick 14. Terrick Schuble. I would have taken him 12th. So I will take him 14th. I think there's enough of a gap between Chorio and Ramirez, who were my next two hitters on my rankings after that first 10.

So I'll just, I'll go with the pitcher. And I, in my opinion, I think the next pick should be a pitcher. We'll see how that goes. But I know, Scott, you have Schlittler ahead of Scoobel. So I do. I'm sure I, that was going to be an easy decision for you either way, I'm sure. Yeah, yeah. Real quick, my pick here, third pick around two is Cam Schluble.

Slitler. And I have them, Misirowski 11th, where you took them, Frank, Schlittler 12, Scubel 13. So I take the three Uber Aces back to back to back before we dip into the hitters again. Exactly same for me. I just have scuba ahead of Schluppler. Would you guys worry about Scubel if he signed somewhere new? Like just a cliche, you know, first year, mega deal in a new location type thing? Not at all. I mean, are the... Is it Colorado?

Sacramento. That would be pretty awesome, actually. He signed with the Rockies. I'm not going to say pressure wouldn't be higher, but he got traded to the Dodgers. Yeah, I was just looking at this, yeah. And was, like, as good as ever? 261, ERA 105 whip, 10.2K per 9.

I feel he was really pitching deep into games, too. 23% K-minus walk after joining the Dodgers. And that's after having, the nanoscope in his elbow, right? So, yeah. Like, that's the other thing you have to keep in mind throughout the season. He's a 251.

251.5, 272 ERA. He had elbow surgery this year. Yep. All right. An experimental elbow surgery, returning from removed bone fragments, like, at a record. And didn't have a rehab assignment at all, right? I don't,

I don't think he made one rehab start. I'll confirm. He made one single rehab start. Okay. Yep. All right, Scott, do you, I know we don't have much time, but do you want to make a 30 second case for Camps? No, I think it's self-explanatory.

He was, he might be the MVP of the AL, much less the Siong. Probably not, but he'll be in the running, for sure. I think this area of the draft is once again completely wide open. I have a trio of just players, I believe, are super talented and are usually first-round picks, and I just don't really know what to do with them. I stuck them right here in the middle of the second round,

And the first one that I have is Corbyn Carroll. And Corbyn Carroll, so Corby Carroll here at pick, that would be 16. And obviously down season, we talked about it towards the end of the year when he started missing some games with that back injury. Apparently the back popped up in late April. Actually, April 19th, to be exact. And it's something that could have just lingered for him all season. He wound up hitting 239, 22 home runs, 91 runs, 21 steals.

And if you dig into his second half numbers, I actually think he was pretty unlucky. Still hit the ball really hard in the second half. His XBA was 248, despite hitting just 219 in that second half. So I know his career is kind of like up and down, and his profile changes yearly, and you don't really know exactly what to expect from Corby Carroll. But if he's healthy, I expect him to be pretty impactful.

You know, 25-ish home runs, 30 to 40 steals, lots of runs scored. The batting average will be lower. Actively hurt you in batting average. Admittedly, don't know where to place him, so I just kind of place him here in the middle of the second round. I think you make a case that he's not a second rounder this year. Like the 21 steals, that's the thing,

is that if he's not a 30 steel guy, like bankable 30 steals, the whole profile starts to look a little rough because then you're looking at only 1.30 homer season. Only one season hitting 260. 259 one year but you know so yeah he didn't slow down

97th percentile sprint speed and he had always been so bankable for steals that I yes I agree if he's just a 20 steel guy

but for the three players we're talking about I think I think we I think we're better off not digging into the numbers too much because obviously

we're not going to like what we find there. They were just not up to their usual standards, but their standards are so high and they're still so young and they were that good for that long that I think

I think we just give them a pass. Just where we give them a pass is the question. Jake Bowers just hit a go-ahead to run home run in the seventh inning of this game off of Blake Snell, lefty on lefty. Wow, what a year for Jake Bowers? What an NLCS? I mean, that at bat that he had against Yamamoto the other day,

12 pitch at bat for a walk ahead of Yelich, who I think hit like a 2 RBI single after that. Just awesome, awesome season for Jake Bowers. Just an all-time or walkier. In terms of like how much money this dude made himself, incredible. For sure. All right, we are back to Chris here at pick 17,

the fifth pick of round two. All right, Scott, cover your ears. Oh. I'm going to do it. I don't know what you're going to do. I'm going to draft Connor Griffin. Oh! I'm going to push him up here.

I know Scott doesn't have him inside his top two rounds. Yeah. Would he be a third round pick? Haven't gotten to shortstop yet. Hard to say. There's still some really good players left. Oh, no. Sorry.

Blake's not gave up into the first and last pitches that he throws in this game will likely be home runs. And to back-to-back lefties to Jake Bowers and Garrett Mitchell. Geez. All right. Well, back to Connor Griffin, who's 162 game pace as a 20-year-old rookie. I believe he made his debut right after, right before he turned 20. Either way, he was very, very young. His pace was about 12 homers, 45 steals. Counting stats weren't great, about 75 runs, 65 RBI. The numbers are not going to be worth a second round pick, is what I'm saying. But you're projecting something. some improvement. And I think Bobby Witt would be the instructive case here where very similar rookie seasons, not all that good as a hitter. There was a little more power, a little less speed for Bobby Witt, but on the whole very similar. He takes a big step forward in the second season,

goes from 20 homers to 30, goes from 30 steals to 49, hits 276. I think Connor Griffin's going be a 45 steel guy next season and I think he's going to be a 20 to 25 homer guy and I don't think that's the ceiling and I think the batting average is going to be helpful and there's a world where a player this talented just figures it out immediately and is in the conversation for the number one pick next year it's not certainly not the likeliest outcome but it is in play how interesting is this chris the same exact wrc plus for both connor griffin and bobby wood junior in their rookie seasons 98 on the dot there from both of those two guys. Two

Uber talented, super prospect to super shortstop prospects coming up. By the way, Connor Griffin hit 290 from May 1st on. I don't know if you guys realize that, but that's pretty good. It's only 54 games, a small sample size,

but his pace after May 1st was like 290 batting average. There's only like 12 home runs still, but close to 100 runs looks like about 45 steals I think that's what that's in play

for Connor Griffin and I think it's more likely we're talking about him as a first round pick next year than as like a third round pick yeah I just haven't got to him yet in terms of like my deep dives but I might have been there if I got to him before this for this podcast

I mean picks like these I just I'm always just like why like yeah, it could work out. I think you even said it's not the likeliest outcome. With early rounds especially, I like to draft for the likeliest outcome. And

you know, Bobby Witt, I was against people elevating him to round one after his rookie season, which wasn't near that level. And it worked out. It worked out for them. So I think the likelihood outcome. You're passing up so much ability here. Like,

even if Connor Griffin does actually deliver on the second round pick, you know, the guys who are still left that you passed up for him also will, in all likelihood. They're more likely to, in fact. So why take that kind of... I guess part of it for me is I kind of think his likelihood outcome is like 15 homers, 45 steals.

Like, I just kind of think the likelihoods outcome is... Be depressed if I got 15 homers from my second round pick. Yeah, the homers aren't great, but if he hits 285 and he steals 45 bases, If you pair him with like a Yordon Alvarez or Caminero I mean that could work out pretty well Yeah I just I just Part of it is also just

It's either him or some starting Some more starting pitchers for me honestly Okay see it there's I just kind of think that the hitters are I'm up next right have Have plenty of warts of their own Yeah I mean I To me two of that trio I mentioned are still available

That I just find really intriguing But yeah There's a shortstop coming off a 30-30 season who is in his mid-20s and who will likely have second base eligibility who will pick up second base eligibility

early next year like CJ Abrams is my pick here that's perfectly reasonable yeah I I can imagine a scenario where Griffin Connor Griffin has a better season than CJ Abrams next year

I think batting average is probably the clearest gap there maybe stolen bases. But I can't, I, it's not even, I don't think it's even close to the likeliest outcome. It is a possible outcome. I don't think it's the likeliest outcome. And then you add the expectation that Abrams

will be a second baseman next year and how thin that position is. I was just saying, when's the last time we had a second basement as good as Fernando Tatis? When's the last time we had a second basement? baseman as good as C.J. Abrams. I guess Jazz Chisholm at his best, but...

Yeah. You know, Abrams is in some ways even better, I think. He did have his usual second half slide, but still finished as a 261 hitter. Again, 30-30, 106 RBI, 93 runs scored. I think I think I would have taken him over Corbyn-Carrill also. I would take him over Corbyn-Carril, yes. I could see a similar expectation for both guys, to be honest,

both C.J. Abrams and Corbyn Carroll. I mean, just with Abrams, look, I don't want to downplay all the good that he did this year and the improvements that he made, like pulled air raid and getting the more power. But just, like, struggling again down the stretch, overperforming his expected stats by quite a bit. Like, he's overperformed his ex-slug by 60 points. And when he played second base, he was an awful hitter.

I don't know if that matters at all, but he did not seem happy about playing second base. And look, ultimately, if that's what the Nationals decide, I mean, that's what he's going to do unless he demands a trade or something like that. I think it's a decent chance he gets traded this off-season too. Yeah, it's possible. Yeah, there is definitely a decent chance.

And he may not be. That's why I don't think we can bank on him being second-base Ellis. Well, I think he's worth drafting here even if he's just shortstop. And, you know, when it comes to what are you concerned about, the, like, armchair psychology stuff

is it's fun to talk about, but I don't put a lot of stock into it unless there's very, very, very strong evidence. Come on, Scott, this is how we win. This are the margins. We have to win with the armchair psychology. Yeah, okay.

Yeah. All right, I guess it's back to me. I've been talking about this trio of players that I just don't really know what to do with. And the next of that trio is Julio Rodriguez, who I think is kind of in a similar boat as Corbyn Carroll. I mean,

typically a first or second round player year in and year out in terms of where he's drafted. And he went on the IL in early July with a concussion. And it seemed like it just kind of derailed his season. His second half was a letdown.

He hit 230 with a 655 OPS. And typically his second half OPS each of the first four years of his career, 937, 941, 818, and 900. So the second half is usually when he takes up. off, but I think he was, you know, coming back from a concussion and clearly wasn't himself. And I'd probably expect the usual like 25-25 base from Julio Rodriguez and maybe he can even get back to

30-30. So I kind of landed on that being in the middle of the second round. I have no idea if that's right. But that's where I've got him. Pick seven of round two. I think that's right. The clincher for me was reminding myself he's 25. He's got to be 26 before the start of next season. But like, a 25-year-old who was on a Hall of Fame trajectory before then. And, you know, the timing of him really falling off a cliff. I understand his first half was underwhelming, but his first half slash line, Julio Rodriguez, right in line with his career first half slash line.

It was a very typical first half for him. So the fall-off was really the second half, and it coinciding with the concussion, I think, is a valid explanation. It is just frustrating that it's happened twice in the past three. years now. Because he got hurt. Yeah. And that's that if we think.

Putting it all on the second half like that. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. If we think that the first half second half thing for him is real and it has been throughout his career, it does mean that he really cannot have anything go wrong in the second half. Because in 2024, that's fair. He had that like high ankle sprain, I think, that he maybe missed a handful of games for and then came back and played through it because they were in a playoff race, but it was clearly affecting him. He was starting to figure it out before then.

Kind of the same thing in 2026. And so it's just that's a little scary, but I think you're talking about a guy who two out of the last four seasons has gone 30-30. This past year he went 2020. Yeah, still. Even with all the problems. Julio Rodriguez. With the first half, second half thing, isn't it kind of surprising he's made three all-star teams?

A little bit, yeah. A little surprising, right? Yeah. I understand what you're saying, though. It does open him up to risk where if he just doesn't have that big second half like we need him to every single year he just won't meet value and it just because it's happened in the past doesn't necessarily guarantee it's going to happen in the future

but that is the trend that we've seen so far in Julio Rodriguez's career so I would bet on it more often than not and I wind up with him here in the middle of the second round Chris over to you eighth pick of round two I think I'm going to pass on that other first round

outfielder that you're that you're circling, although I don't feel good about it. I'm going to go with Yoshinoba Yamamoto. So I'm going to go with another starting pitcher here. Just rock solid safety across the board. I don't think he has the highest ceiling at starting pitcher. He is the one that has been taken so far that I would be the most surprised

if he finished with the number one fantasy pitcher. I would also be the most surprised if he was like 70th. you know, like it just, barring injury, it just doesn't seem like there's any way things go wrong. For Yoshinovi Yamamoto, that could be a dumb thing to say about a pitcher, but this is three straight years of ace level production. He pitches deep into games to overcome the six-man rotation thing.

I think he's more likely to get to 200 strikeouts than not, even though he only got to 182 this year. He's just not the highest upside pitcher, but remarkably safe for a starting pitcher. I think Scoobel and Yamamoto have the highest floors of any starting pitcher that you could draft in fantasy. And I think there's a pretty clear top four in whatever order. The Miz, Scubel, Schlitler, and Yamamoto.

And then I think you could debate number five. Is it Sanchez? Is it Chris Sale? Is it Zach Wheeler? I think you could have conversations about that. But the top four seems pretty locked in in some order. Scott, over to you for. Pick 9 of round 2.

So Chris said he didn't feel good about passing up this guy. I don't feel good about taking this guy. It's the correct answer. I think in the long run, I may talk myself out of taking Ronald de Cunia this early, maybe, but I'm going to take him here. The reason why I'm hedging is because I just got through saying I like drafting for the most likely outcome in rounds one and two. not necessarily the best case outcome.

And I feel like we're clinging to the best case outcome a little bit with the Coonia now. I still think it's there. I don't think we've seen significant, like, what's the right word, legitimate decline from him as a hitter in terms of like he can't get it back. I think he is still as skilled of a hitter as ever. It's just he is often banged up.

and plays through it, and it messes up his mechanics, and he needs to retool his mechanics, and he gets back to where he was and looks great for a few weeks, but then he's playing banged up again. And it's just been this cycle for about three years now of that. And at some point, you know, he's not, he's, what is he, 28 now? So, you know, not quite 30. But he's not like 25 either.

And when it becomes a pattern, unless he's going to spend a lot of time at DH next year, which, you know, maybe, we'll see. I think you're asking on some good luck at this point for him to avoid falling into that pattern again next year. I still think he has 40-30 potential, if not 40-40 potential. He's not, you know, a sprint speed 40th percentile about now, but he still runs aggressively. I think he stole five bases in the postseason when he was clearly playing hurt and didn't get on base that much. Yeah, I'm going with the Coonia,

but the risks are pretty obvious at this point. All that being said, and I think everything you said is fair, he was better than Julio Rodriguez last season. Yep. You know, like that's the thing is that for all our hand ring about Ronald Coonja, he was better than a guy who went earlier

that went ahead of him at the same position. Yeah, yeah. But again, he's part of, he was the third of that tree that I think they're all really talented. I think all three are wild cards right now. Corbyn Carole, Julio Rodriguez, and Acuna.

Acuna being the biggest wild card of the three. I think he's the biggest wild card in the first two rounds of draft. I don't know if he'll be a second round pick in every draft, but in the early rounds, I think Acuna is the biggest wild card. I agree, Scott. I think he still could go 40-40, but he also just regularly misses time. He's only played 120 games, even,

twice in his career. Both years that he's done that, he broke fantasy. So he's kind of like the Blake Snell of his. For what it's worth, I would take him ahead of Corbyn Carroll and Holyardra, I guess, personally.

I think there's a fair argument for that. I think they're all shaky and he has the highest upside. That's how I ranked them in mid-September. He might have the lowest floor, though, just because of injuries, but yeah. Yeah, he feels like the most volatile of the three.

Yep, could be. And a good way and a bad way. All right, let's wrap this up here. I have the 10th pick of round two. I think this is completely wide open as well, like I've said for a lot of these picks. I am going to go with Nick Kurtz here as the first, first basement off the board. Obviously, it was trending towards a massive season before this thumb injury popped up for him. If you look at his first 82 games before the first reported thumb injury,

He hit 280 with 19 home runs, 59 runs, 64 RBI, 7 steals, and a 951 OPS. His full season pace with those numbers, 37 homers, 116 runs, 126 RBI, and 13 steals. He does come with risk. Like, is that dumb completely healthy heading into next year? I have no idea. But I think he hits the ball extremely hard. He's an ascending player. He was a top prospect.

Awesome home ballpark. really good lineup if everyone's healthy. I think we could get like a 40 homer just massive run in RBI season here out of Nick Kurtz. But admittedly, I think he comes with some risks too. I just don't even know if he's healthy right now. So that's where I have. Yeah, but he was great before playing through the injury.

He was, it's hard to repeat. It's hard to be a guy who consistently delivers a 950 plus OPS, but I think Kurtz showed that he was that guy before that month of playing through the injury. I agree. He is my pick here. I like this roster construction here too for team three. Bobby Witt and Nick Kurtz together. That feels pretty good.

Complement each other very well. All right, Chris. Your last pick here. This is the 11th pick of round two. So here's something kind of weird. I think this is very much subject to change. But I think I have a run starting with Nick Kurtz

of four straight first baseman in my overall rankings. So I would go with not the number one first baseman in 2026. I will pass up on Ben Rice for Miguel Vargas. Asteris there, Miguel Vargas was actually better for fantasy than Menrise last season. Ben Rice ranks higher because he was catcher eligible, but if you strip out the catcher eligibility and you just take what they did on the field, Miguel Vargas was a better fantasy player. In large part because he stole 22 bases and that is a pretty big outlier.

He only had 60 year before. But man, you look at Miguel Vargas, you dive into the numbers of what he did. It really does not look like a fluke at all. The only reason it might is because he's never done it before. But he went out and put up a 14% walk rate up from 9.8%. And he didn't increase his strikeout rate at all. Do you know how hard that is to see that many more pitches, to go that deep in accounts that consistently

and not strike out more than you did. That's really, really tough to do. And he did that while adding exit velocity, adding damage on contact. He ended up with a 363 Wobah, which is really good mark. It was a 378 expected Woba. That is a really, really strong mark.

It's, I would guess, let me look it up, but I think Ben Rice's expected Wobo was better. Oh, no, 378, exactly the same. between Ben Rice and Miguel Vargas. That's a little bit surprising, isn't it? Given how hard Ben Rice hits the ball. But given that Miguel Vargas, okay, he's probably a worse hitter than Ben Rice,

but those stolen bases and that third base eligibility is enough to push him ahead of Ben Rice. Not that I don't think he couldn't steal 20 again, 82nd percentiles, brink speed. And just how much more he was on base helps explain some of the steel's increase. Miguel Vargas was the single biggest gainer in average bat speed this past year, which, you know, you mentioned him hitting the ball harder. You like when you can go back another level and see that he improved in the thing that led to the thing.

And his swing length didn't get much longer, which would be the tradeoff you'd be worried about. You know, you're getting a little bit of less plate coverage for more damage, but no, that wasn't really an issue. him. It was just if what he did last year was real, like if the skill set doesn't decline, I think Miguel Vargas is just a rock solid second round pick. It's a question mark, but Ben Rice's track record isn't that long. South Stewart's track record isn't that long. Jordan Walker's track record isn't that long, and I suspect might be who Scott's about to take, but I'll let him say it if that is. All right, Scott, wrap us up here. Okay. It's not. You just said, Frank, that you're not sure who the fifth starting pitcher will be,

so I will make the decision for us. I will say it's Christopher Sanchez. Yeah, that'd be my pick as well. The only real concern is the whip. The whip runs higher than you'd like for an ace, for sure. A lot of it is Babbitt related, which partly comes from giving up so many ground balls, but there are other ground ball pitchers that get fewer strikeouts than Christopher Sanchez,

that walk more hitters than Christopher St. He's a great control pitcher and don't have the same whip issues. So I think a lot of his defense related, Alec Bome's going to be gone, presumably, a free agent. Luis Arise, a free agent. Not that he was a bad defender

for the short time he was there, but I'm hopeful that means Trey Turner shifts to second base where he probably belongs at this stage of his career. We'll see. We'll see where the Phillies defense winds up next year. But I have a feeling it's going to be better. And that'll help Christopher Sanchez.

And even if it's not better, I think he just having better bat at ball luck, I would take the under if we set this year's whip as the over under. And then everything else is phenomenal. And he's done it a couple years in a row now. So I think he's a clear cut ace worth taking here. Recapping round two, I kicked it off with Jose Ramirez at Pick 13, followed by Terik Scoubel, Cam Schlittler, Corbyn Carroll, Connor Griffin,

CJ Abrams, Julio Rodriguez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Ronald de Cunia, Nick Kurtz, Miguel Vargas, and Christopher Sanchez. What about some players who just missed? Well, if you want to find out about those, tune in to FBT Express because that is what we'll be talking about. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank.

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