Fantasy Baseball Today - Early 2021 ADP Takeaways with Matt Modica! (11/05 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 5, 2020

We continue our Fantasy Baseball guest tour with professional high-stakes player Matt Modica! What exactly is high-stakes Fantasy Baseball (3:00)? ... On to the latest news notes and rumors (4:32). Trevor Bauer rejected the qualifying offer, the Mets could be in for a busy offseason and we have an early "Best Shape of His Life" alert. ... How is Matt handling the 2020 season (10:57), in particular when it comes to Central pitchers? Is pocket aces a viable strategy? ... Is Bo Bichette really a second-round pick (20:45)? How about the first round!? How are we projecting Walker Buehler in 2021 (25:20)? ... Are we scared off Max Scherzer (28:45)? Is Trent Grisham legit (33:01)? ... Yordan Alvarez is the ultimate boom or bust wild card in Fantasy Baseball 2021 (37:15). ... Is Dominic Smith a star (39:50)? ... How can Chris Paddack bounce back (43:18)? Last but not least, who are some Matt's early favorites to breakout in 2021 (50:35)? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo Santianna, because of the rest of a jack like Michael Walker, Polanco, and from... Nothing like talking average draft position data in early November, am I right? Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, November 5th, and this is officially your break from the rest of the world. Frank Stamphill here, no Scott White,

and I hope you are ready to use a second round pick on Boba Chet, and to draft Chris Paddock as your SP4 in 2021. Today on the show, we're going to take a closer look. at some of this early ADP. And, you know, talk about some of these polarizing players, predict whether these names will be drafted higher, lower, or about the same range come March.

I've also got a few news items and rumors. Seems like the hot stove is a long ways away. I mean, we're talking, it's going to be, I think we're going to be, it's a very slow moving off season. We're talking about a broken stove here, ice cold. You've got to fix it by yourself. and fun fact for anyone out there, like, I am the worst handyman.

So this would actually take me a few years to fix if I was actually fixing a stove that was broken myself. I said we, just a little bit of go, which means I am not flying solo for an hour today. If you followed me before, I joined fantasy baseball today, then you already know our special guest.

And if you haven't, well, you are in for a treat. Please welcome to the show. Matt Modica, give him a follow on Twitter at CTM baseball professional. Professional? I'll ask you about that, Matt. High-stakes player at the NFBC and just one of the best baseball minds that I have ever interacted with.

So, Matt, welcome to your debut on fantasy baseball today. It's great to be here. Always a pleasure to talk with you. We go back some time now, so I'm happy to spend an hour. Matt, is it right if I call you a professional high-stakes? I don't know. It felt a little weird. Is there such a thing as a professional high-stakes player?

I mean, I guess if I look at what I, you know, how much I put in and what I get out, it is kind of a professional thing. It is one of the avenues of income that I put for myself each year. So I guess that's kind of right. I don't want people to be scared off, right? The first thing to hear, oh, high stakes. Well, come on. You know, how is that going to relate?

Look, Matt's just like the rest of us. He's playing fantasy baseball. He is figuring out how to evaluate these players, trying to do the same things that we are doing. He's trying to how much of 2020 actually matters and translating that over into the 2021 season. He's just doing it with a lot more on the line than most of us are doing it with. So high stakes, okay, we're talking about leagues with entry fees, hundreds of dollars, some over $1,000. If you listen to other podcasts, you hear people talk about the main event on the NFBC

and draft champions and all these different types of formats. So, Matt, if you can just explain in layman's terms, the high stakes world and what it is what it is that you do and how you play now is your opportunity I mean well basically right now is the time

to play draft champions where it's 50 rounds no trades no in season pickups it's a great way to learn to play a pool get a feel of where the players go they have leagues starting at

150 or 400 and there's a lot there'll always be like a couple that go for a thousand. There's not many, but there will be a couple throughout the months that we'll have that price point as well. There's an overall prize in this for, I believe it's $30,000 once again.

I usually do it to actually get myself comfortable with everything, you know, just for me, it's just a repetitiveness of the drafting, knowing where all the players are going to be, seeing the players move up and down the boards, So right now, you know, I tweeted out the other day. It's baseball season. I got my standing order of this.

I purchased this. So, you know, I'm getting ready. All right. So let's get into some of these news and notes. Let's pick the brain of Matt Modica. Enough of the background. All right, we've set it up. We set up the show for you.

You know a little bit about the high stakes world. Again, the NFBC, I consider the best, you know, high stakes arena to play in. So if anyone wants to get involved, please visit their website. Some news and notes. Not really much going on today. Trevor Bauer declined the one year $18.9 million qualifying offer. That was expected.

Probably, not probably. He is the best starting pitcher on the market right now and it will be interesting to see where he lands. He's talked about wanting to pitch every fourth day that would certainly elevate his value

for fantasy baseball purposes. But again, I think a slow moving off season. The Mets, we talked about this just before we started, Matt. they had a busy day. They signed Malick Smith and Jose Parraza to minor league deals. Now, if you guys haven't realized by now, Matt is from, are you from the New York, New Jersey area?

I mean, I was born in Brooklyn, raised in Staten Island and Brooklyn. Okay. So, you know, I know that you've had when I came back. You've lived all around, you've moved around. But originally a Brooklyn, Staten Island guy, you could tell by the way he talks to him. So I'm talking about my hands. Got a little bit of an accent. Yeah, me too.

Hey. It's a New York. thing. What are you going to do? But Matt, you're a big Mets fan. Do you expect a busy offseason? Obviously, Steve Cohen just purchased the team. And all the talks are that, you know, we could see a pretty busy offseason, some rumors about them being interested in J.C. Real Muto. And even today, I saw a possible trade rumor of them being interested in you, Darvish. I know the Cubs apparently are trying to cut payroll. So that would be very interesting. Are you expecting a busy off season? I kind of, for them, I think, you know, he's, we have some.

that actually has money now that owns the team. So we won't be working on this, you know, small market budget anymore. And I think he's going to want to make a splash. My hope is he surrounds himself with really smart baseball people. I think we'll be seeing changes in the front office and at the managerial level as well. But like you said, I think it's like you said earlier, it's like a broken stove league. and I myself am a terrible maintenance man. I usually either pay somebody or have a friend from a moment.

But I think the Mets are in an opportunity now with this market where they can maybe get some guys, I might say in on the cheap, but for a better deal. And, you know, I think many players want to come to New York. Some aren't made for New York. We've seen that over the years. At least I have in the 30-plus years. of watching baseball.

Some do melt under the spotlight and some shame. But I'm very excited for it. I think he's going to, you know, get the right people in and the opportunity is there to strike. A lot of teams you see there, you know, $10 million, one-year deals. You know, who is Wong, hand. So there's going to be guys, you know, other teams that are scaling back like St. Louis. The match can obviously increase.

Jeff Passing of ESP. PN reports that players want to keep the universal D.H for 2021, but owners want them to agree to keep the expanded playoffs for 2021 in exchange. So seems like a fair trade-off for both, I guess. I'm hoping the D.H is around. One of the names that we'll talk about a little bit later on is Dom Smith, and he probably needs the D.H. In order to reach his ceiling.

So I'm hoping that sticks around. Yeah, like, look, I'm an old-school guy. I'm a little older maybe than the audience. But I'm a national league guy. I've been a national league guy since I was a kid and grew up on, you know, 80s baseball. So I'm not a fan of the D-H. I mean, I've never watched the game where I said I wish they had to D-H.

But that's just how I grew up. That's how I like baseball. I know it's coming to an end, unfortunately. I thought for this year it was great, you know, that the expanded playoffs worked for the format that, was in place. I kind of like baseball, not having a bunch of teams make the playoffs. The wild cut, I thought it was good, the one game elimination.

You gave a team that didn't, the two teams that didn't win the division and opportunity and stuff like that. But I would prefer that we go back to, you know, I don't know, maybe you want to call me old-fashioned in that aspect. And that's just me. But, you know, everybody has different tastes. Yeah, we shall see. Last but not least, we have an early best shape of events.

his life. Apparently, Vlad Guerrero Jr. has lost 32 pounds since the beginning of the baseball season, which includes 12 pounds since the season has ended. And there was a picture that was circulating on Twitter where he does look like he's in better shape. And one of these years, I think it's going to happen, Matt, where we get the breakout for Vlad. And I assume people are going to continue to chase him until it actually happens. Just give me a ballpark prediction in a 12-team league, where would you feel comfortable taking Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for 2021? You know what? Right now, I haven't really thought about that, but I would probably say he's probably going to be that for me right now, sixth round. We're talking 12th team? Yeah, 12 team.

I guess it's that sixth roundish and a 12. Makes sense to me. I guess that that's where I go there. But I think it's funny, as you said, one of these years, he's a baby. I think the expectations that were upon this guy were tremendous. It doesn't mean that he's a bust or anything like that. I think it's great that he lost weight because he's a young guy and, you know, young, famous, his father's a legend, you know, be in shape. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we've already seen the guy move from third base to first base, which is not surprising.

I think we all kind of expected that to happen at some point. But, hey, you don't want to see the guy just full-time DH by the time he's 22, 23 years old. I mean, if he hits, like, close to 3.000. 300, let's say $290 to 300 range this year, hits 20-something homers, and then start stealing some bases, you know, you get your seven stolen bases. At a position, that's not all that great, first base. You know, that's something you'd be very happy with, I think.

Absolutely. Matt, we usually like to ask our guests some general questions about how they're handling 2020 production and projecting that for the 2021 season. And normally we ask people the same questions. I thought I would change it up a little bit here. I know that you are a big pitching guy. Obviously, I mean, you have to be focused on both.

If you want to have balanced rosters, you have to pay equal attention to hitters. But when I think Matt Modic, I think pitching. I don't know. I don't know if that's unfair or not, but how are you valuing some of these central pitchers? A.L. NL. Central. Some of these guys who benefited from having a great schedule in 2020.

We saw breakout seasons. Shane Bieber was utterly ridiculous. Kent and Maeda was, I believe, a top five pitcher in Roto. And we saw Zach Plesack have a breakout season. Even Kyle Hendricks in the NL Central. He was really, really good this past season. So, Matt, how are you handling these breakouts? Are you downplaying them because of the schedule that they face the season?

Well, I mean, let's start with Kent and Mayada. And I think he's one of the, he did benefit from that schedule. If you look at the teams he faced and all that. that. But when you do the deep dive, and what I like to do with pitching and why I prefer looking at the pitchers and I usually do them first, I just think it's a lot more fun. I start off with addition by subtraction. What are they using in their repertoire? You see, look, if you have a top end fastball, then that's great. You're going to use that. But not every pitcher has that. In most cases, they don't. So a guy like Kenton Mayer,

and when you do the deep dog, you see how he's used his pitches. You know, the fast ball has consistently gone down. And it's those breaking ball pitchers that are now fully taken over. Look at Shane Bieber from when he came in, like three years ago,

that first season. You know, the fast ball was getting crushed. And then last year, he decreased it. And then he even further decreased it this year. He added a cutter and stuff. So that's what I, what you, look, if you have the time and you want to have some fun, if you're on CBS and you're going to follow Frankie

and you're going to see what he has to say about it, or Scott or whoever, and that's great. But it's also good to look for yourself and see, why was he good? What did he do? Like, what changed? Is it real? And I do think in this short season,

there were some things that were real. I think Kent and Maeda is in a really good situation. Is he going to be a pitcher that's going to have a two ERA next year? year, absolutely not. Is he somebody that could be good? My biggest worry was like the innings pitch. I know the Dodgers played a lot of, played a lot of tricks because of the service time and stuff with the contract.

But he really hasn't had that heavy workload, except for maybe one year. He had 150 innings. But I like, I actually do like him. I think police acts a guy that was real last year. And he's somebody that I want to just make that confirmation, say if I'm doing a 15 team league, is he a fourth round pick?

Is he somebody that, you know, is he really my SP2? You know, I haven't reached that point. I haven't done the full dime. But I'm looking at what has changed. Do they have control, especially with young pitchers. The young pitcher has control.

You know, he gets a couple of years under his belt. That's a great foundation to have. And you know what's crazy about this, Matt? And I didn't even plan just these names. It just seems to be a common theme among some of these pitchers in the Central. so maybe we should take that more into consideration than just originally,

you know, our first look at things is to say, okay, well, they had a great schedule, which is a fact, but look at all of Beber, Plesack, Maeda, and Kyle Hendricks, all those names that I just looked up. Each of them decreased their fastball usage by at least 8% this past season. And neither of, like, they don't, none of them have fantastic fastball, So they start throwing their breaking pitches more. For Maeda, he starts using the change-up and the slider more,

and Bieber has all these different breaking pitches. Now, same thing with Zach Plesack. He has a slider and change-up. Both were fantastic pitches for him. Kyle Hendricks starts using this curveball more this past season. So it's not just, okay, you know, they faced great schedules, which, again, is a fact. But look a little bit deeper, and we'll continue to talk about it.

It's something we've mentioned already on our early starting pitcher previews. and it's something that we will reiterate throughout the offseason. These pitchers have made changes, so let's take those things into account. Speaking of pitchers, Matt, pocket aaces. This was a very popular strategy and a fruitful strategy in the shortened season.

I know Scott White just won the 15-team mixed-out Wars League starting with Garrett Cole and Shane Bieber. I know Toby. If you follow him on Twitter, at Batflip Crazy, we'll actually have Toby on at some point in the off-season as well. he's already agreed to come on, so you appreciate it. Both of them had very successful fantasy baseball seasons,

starting with pocket aces, two pitchers in the first two rounds. Do you think based on the pitching landscape and where it is that this is a strategy that we should look more so into using moving forward? On the flip side, I just kind of just want to set this up both ways. There is a luck factor, because if you went pocket aces this year and you started with Verlander and Scherzer,

you didn't have a good season. If you started with Bueller and Flaherty, for whatever reason, it wasn't their fault. It was just a weird season. COVID with Flaherty and blisters with Bueller, then you didn't have, there is going to be a luck factor. It's not just, oh, draft two pitchers, and it's going to work out.

So where do you stand on that strategy in early November? Oh, no, it's something, I think it's been around in the high stakes for a long time. I think it was probably called dueling aces. At one point, now pocket Aces has become the term. And, you know, Toby's a great player. So when he's on, I recommend your audience listen to him. We've had two really back-to-back fantastic seasons in the NFBC.

But like you said, it depends on who you get. And just in the last two seasons, if you were picking around that turn, say, in a 12 or a 15-teamber, two years ago, it was Garrett Cole. that was going in the end of the first round or early second round of a 12-teamer. And last year it was Shane Bieber. So if you got those guys, that was fantastic. On the flip side, if you got Walker Bueller, that was no way, no, really. You know, he wasn't pitching.

If he pitched, he was going three, four innings, the blisters and all that. So I think if you're going to do it, that's fine. But then you need to know, you need to, like, map it out, have your game plan. I'm looking to load up on pitches the first two rounds. Where am I getting my offense? Where am I going to get the home runs? Especially, where am I going to get the stolen bases? Now, if you're in a trade league, it's a lot easier too. You know, you can make moves. You can deal. But there's not a lot of guys that steal a ton of bases. So it's basically having a game plan first and foremost and setting up the board. It's like playing a game of chess. It's not just making the move for that move. It's making the move for

for the next or the two moves ahead. Yeah, and I think that that is very well said, and so much of it is about roster construction. Yes, there are many different ways to win. There's not just one, okay, I'm going to take two pitchers to start, and that's it. That's the rest of my draft. I've already won my league.

You know, things have to break right, obviously, and you have to figure, all right, well, if I take two pitchers, I can't wait too long to get a third one. When is that going to happen? Maybe the fifth, sixth, sixth, seventh round. I have to figure out which hitters I really want to attack. in rounds three, four, and five? You know, who are the hitters that stand out to me that can profit?

Because there are guys every year. You look at rounds three, four, and five, and you realize, all right, well, this guy can return first round value. Why is he going at this point? A few guys already kind of stand out to me, like Anthony Rendon, I think, is a guy that can return near first round value. He's early ADPs going in, like, borderline third, fourth round range. Same thing with Nolan Aronado, if he's healthy.

These are just some early names, but you need to map those things out in advance. Yes. And I'll say one other thing real quick before we move on from this is comfortability. And, you know, some people aren't comfortable starting off with two pitchers. And that's fine. Like some people want to have that five tool guy on offense that's going to be their foundation and then maybe draft the pitcher. Maybe that's how they'll want to start out.

And if that's what you're comfortable with or how you feel good about doing it, then go your way. You know, there's no, just because somebody else does it and they're successful, doesn't mean you're going to be successful in that way, especially if you get out of your comfort zone. And, yeah, I think it's a good point, too, is like every year is different too, Matt. Like this upcoming season,

you could identify 10 pitchers that are going between rounds 5 and 10 that you really, really like. And you think, okay, if I get three or four of those guys, then my pitching staff could be all right. So every year is different. It's not just, okay, well, drafting two pitchers in the first two rounds has worked in the past. that means it will always work.

Just put a bow on this conversation, but I liked where it went here, some roster construction discussion, some game theory discussion as well when it comes to fantasy baseball. Let's jump right in. Names that stood out to me in some of this early ADP, courtesy of you, Matt, that you provided.

So I appreciate that. This is some ADP from NFBC early drafts. So the first one that stood out to me, Matt, Bobeshit. And... His ADP right now is 21.5. And, you know, in the 29 games that he played in 2020, he was great. There's no doubting it.

301 batting average, five home runs, 18 runs scored, 23 RBI, four steals. Looks like a five category contributor. Statcast really likes this guy as well. Matt, how you feeling about Bobichette early on? Because it seems like a very big price tag for someone who has performed, but in just a small sample thus far. Well, I mean, in this two-month season, I guess we call it. I mean, I was taking him in the early third, you know, paying that mid-20s,

maybe a little more in a couple of auctions I did. I think he's got the, you know, I think he's got the hit tool. You know, he might not be the most, you know, he's not going to walk a lot and somebody like that. But I think he knows how to hit. He has the speed. That's where I'm most concerned is him actually. you know, getting that 20 plus stolen basis. I mean, he's got the speed to do it.

I'm not really worried about that. I think he's somebody that's going to hit that 280 batting average at least. You know, he's not somebody that's going to hurt you there. And he's got to pop the kid. He's going to be at top the lineup in that area. So he's going to get the at-bats. I mean, at-bats are a critical thing. Anything pitched in a bat's when you're building, you know, your team, they matter.

You can't just go with all upside kind of guys. and I believe there's been like two drafts that started in the last week. I'm not in them, but I did see a couple of the first rounds. And I think Bo went like in a 15-team league, say maybe 13th. So I don't think that's crazy because people were pretty high in them last year. In a 15-team league, he was going late 20s, early 30s, you know, at one point.

So, you know, you're going to pay. free if you want. I mean, I'm not saying I'm going to get him at 13 right now. I haven't mapped out my board yet. I'm just collecting the data right now. But he's going to be a very popular name and you're going to pay a high tax on him. Boba Shett has played 75 career games thus far, batting 307 with 16 home runs and eight steals. If you double that, just for the sake of this conversation, that's 150 games, 32 home runs and 16 steals. So there is a lot to be excited. How about this?

Just because I knew you were going to talk about him. I looked at three different projections. And, you know, between like Masters Ball Steamer and say Bill James Handbook, it comes out to 22.3 homers, 92 runs, 82 RBI, 24.6 stolen bases and a 279 batting average. That seems like a good player. That doesn't seem like a second round pick. I mean, this is also, you know, if he's going to hit 280, you know, say he hits 25 home runs.

Say he scores 100 runs. And if he's going to steal 25 stone bases, you know, you're getting that production pretty much across the board. And I said this during our early shortstop preview. I am getting a bit of a Fernando Tatis vibe from Boba's shit. Someone that you have to pay up very highly for, but we know what the skill is, the prospect pedigree and we're dealing with a small sample to this point. So I really like that comp you did that. It's like something like you said.

You don't have the, and a lot of people in that first round, and a lot of times they're right, they want to have seen the guy done it before. But like you saw, with Tatis, he proved that he can do it again. Yeah, that and then some. All right, so the early ADP for Boba Shed is 21.5, which puts him in the late second round of a 12-team league. Matt, do you think this will be higher, lower, or about the same come March?

I figure he will go higher come March. There's a lot of love for both. I'm one of those people that really like this kid, and I think there's people that like him, probably even more than me. Yeah, I tend to lean towards his ADP will be higher than this as well come March. Walker Bueller, we mentioned the name already, Matt, and he's an interesting one to try and figure out, I will not doubt the talent.

We've been talking about Walker Bueller for years. We saw it in the postseason. The guy's store 99 miles per hour. He's striking everybody out. In five postseason starts, he had 39 strikeouts in just 25 innings pitched. However, he got a late start to summer camp. Never really gets the endings built up. He has all these blister issues.

It's a messy situation, Matt, for someone who has a 24.5 ADP early on. I'm not doubting the talent, but I am a little bit worried about the blisters and the fact that the Dodgers, for whatever reason, just always kind of limit Walker Bueller. So how are you feeling about him early on? I actually have him ranked outside my top 10 starting pitchers, and I don't know if that's crazy. I'll say this.

I was kind of disappointed. He killed it in the playoffs. I'm a big Walker Bueller guy. Pretty much if you're pitched for the Dodgers and you're a high-end talent, I think you deserve a bit of a premium, a little extra tax on you. It was a two-month season. It just never worked out for him during the regular part of that season with the blisters and stuff.

But he showed you what he could do in the playoffs. I don't think he's gone outside the second round so far and said the handful of drafts that have happened. And the Dodgers are going to be a really good team again next year. He's their race. He's not like a 22-year-old kid that they got to continue to baby. It's the time for him to step up. man up and he's got to take the range and run with it now this year. And you're not going to get any discount because of what happened in the playoffs.

Matt, if you're projecting the innings for Walker Bueller in 2021, his past three seasons, regular season and postseason included, 173 innings, 195, and then 61 in this season. Where would you set the, if we're just setting an over-under for Walker Bueller's in 2021, where would you set it? I mean, I would be comfortable saying, he's going to go at least $180 or more. He's built to be that jack.

It's, you know, is he going to get injured? If the blisters come back and all that kind of stuff, and you got to start dealing with that. But hopefully that was just something that occurred this year. It won't be a problem. But this guy is built to be a horse, an ace, whatever you want to say. And, you know, Clayton Kirschul, one of the greatest pictures of him, he's now older.

He's a six-in-guy. They need somebody. You can't have everybody in 162 game season pitching a handful of innings. You're just going to kill your, you know, you're going to kill your bullpen and stuff. And the time is now for Walker Bueller. The ADP is 24.5. Matt, come March, higher, lower, or about the same? I'm just thinking about, like, the players that are in front of him.

I think for him, it's going to probably stay about the same. You know, I think right now this is a fair price. I think he would have been maybe somewhat of a discount, but nobody turned it on in the playoffs. That's why I'll say about it said. I think that's the right call, but I think people might point to the playoffs, Matt, and it might actually push him up the border.

Oh, yeah, I won't be surprised. I won't be surprised by that at all. Another pitcher who is not really the antithesis of Walker Bueller, but he's a little bit older. It's Max Scherzer, who in 2020 had a 374 ERA, a 138 whip, 92 strikeouts, in 67 and a third. We did see some warning signs here, Matt, batting average and Babbitt, both on the rise each of the past two seasons,

giving up some harder contact. His swinging strike rate is down a little bit from where it's been. It's still very good compared to the rest of the league, but it is down a little bit. Any concern over Max Scherzer? Yeah, look, I'm an older guy. I'm 47, so. You look good for 47.

I know how, you know, I know how it is, you start getting old. I'm no pro athlete, but things don't get better and it don't get easier. And I got to give Max Scher some credit here. I remember when he first came up with the Diamondbacks and stuff. And there was a lot of hype and a lot of potential. And then he went to Detroit. And he really flourished into, you know, he's a whole fame pitcher now and all that.

But, I mean, I hate betting against a guy like Max, but he's probably not going to be on my team at the price. Yeah, so that price is 36.5 right now. It's at the 3-4 turn. And I said this during our starting pitcher preview part one. You go back and listen to it on demand. Turning 37 years old next year has dealt with some back, some neck stuff. It's just father time catches everybody, Matt.

Yeah, if I could just say that's the thing. Like I said, I really don't want to bet against Max. I actually love watching him pitch. He's dominated my match in the past and all that. But, you know, you said, 37, the back issues. And it's, it's not something that I want to mess with. All right. So at 36.5, the ADP higher, lower, or about the same come March?

I'll say maybe a little higher, believe it or not. I think there's the people that are going to say, you know what, the two-month season, Max is a guy that's given the 200 plus innings and all that. Maybe he's got one. So I'm looking at it. Maybe it was a good thing. for him, that he only had the 67 innings, and he can build on that. You know, he kind of saved them a little, put it that way.

Yeah, I actually agree. This is one where I think that he is going to climb a little bit for the reasons. You mentioned people want those workhorses in the 2021 season, pitchers that have done it before, and obviously Max Scherzer is one of them. Don't think he's going to be on any of my teams either, but there is a lot of offseason season to study and read and figure things out when it comes to Max Scherzer. We're going to take a quick break. Just want to remind everyone, Scott White will be back next week and we'll have a mailbag segment towards the end of the podcast on Tuesday.

So continue to send in questions via Apple Podcast Review. Remember, if you've left a review before, you can leave another one or email us at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Our 2021 rankings page is also up and running. If you want to take a look, head on over to CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball and click on rankings on the left side. Yes, these will change hundreds of times before March. We'll take a quick break. We'll hit some outfielders when we return here, fantasy baseball today. So Trent Christian was awesome in the 2020 season,

and he's another player where we have to figure out, should we pay the price based on just this short season of production? He hit 251, has great plate discipline, OBP over 350, doesn't strike out all that much. 10 homers, 42 runs, 26 RBI, 10 steals. And I don't think the steals are going away. I've said that about all of the Padres. I think that is a stamp in Jace Tingler's managerial style. And I think that it will remain with the Padres in 2021. Matt Grisham at 50.5, you're talking about end of the fourth, early fifth round.

What are you thinking here? I think the only thing really is the batting average. I think he's going to deliver you, you know, the home runs. He's going to steal, say that 15 plus stolen bases, which is really nice. But what is your expectation on a batting? I think one of the things you have to be honest when making or when looking at projections, at least I try to do, is what is the realistic outcome? Like, is he going to beat that projection? You think he'll make that projection?

Is it too high of a projection? So I think he's going to be a very popular guy here. Another good team. He's surrounded by good players. That lineup should turn over a lot. So I think he's a guy, if you're going to ask me, what do I think he's going? I think he's going to go and maybe a little higher because people like him.

Yeah, so the 251 batting average, he hits a lot of line drives, nearly a 25% line drive rate. So maybe he builds on this a little bit. I know the XBA was, I think it was 263, so can he get up to 260? I don't think that's impossible for a player that is continuing to improve. So 260, I'm looking at the steamer projections early on, 24 homers, 15 steals, should score a lot of runs at the top of that Padres lineup, can hit lefties as well.

Man, like Trent Grisham is, and he is a player that will be useful regardless of format. Because even if you're playing a points league, his play discipline is fantastic. You know, he walks a lot and that helps in points leagues. You know, he doesn't strike out all that much. He doesn't expand the strike zone. I'm talking myself into Trey Grisham here. It's very early, but I do like what I see early on. You mentioned you expect the ADP to be higher than this 50.5 price tag.

And I tend to agree. I think the fact that he's going to steal bases, I mean, he's going to steal, like, say the 15 plus over, say, 162 games. season. And you know, you've got to look at lineups, as you mentioned correctly, the managerial philosophy, teams that are going to run. Looking at Manny Machado and was coming off. I thought last year was one of the better values that you can have, whatever it was,

say, you know, that fourth, fifth round. And, you know, you got Manny, he got Tatis. Hosmer had a bounce back last year. So I think, and as you said, he can hit lefty. the question here I would pose to people. Now, this is like when you're building the team, do you want Trent Grisham here? Or do you want like Luke Voight?

Or are you guys, say George Springer is a free agent. Where does he land? You know, that's what you've got to kind of look at when you're making these moves. Who are the guys that you could have besides Trent Grissom here in that area? Yeah, and based on this early price tag, he's going just after Springer, who you mentioned, who is a known commodity but has some injury issues. And same thing with Aaron Judge.

Grisham's actually going slightly ahead of Aaron Judge. So Judge, you know, all the upside in the world, I think if he stays healthy, he can hit 280 and 40 plus home runs, but, I mean, the health is a real, real issue for Aaron Judge at this point. So you have to ask yourself those questions. Another player, you have to ask yourself questions about when it comes to health. Matt, oh my gosh, what are we going to do

with this guy? Urdon Alvarez, just 23 years old, just had arthroscopic surgery on both of his knees. This guy, he is the ultimate, the ultimate risk-reward

wild card, I believe, at this early price tag, which is 71. ADP-71, he's going right around that 6-7 turn. We saw the upside last year,

in 2019, rather, He hit 50 home runs and batted 325 between the minors and the majors. Matt, you want to talk about someone who can return second round value, maybe even first round value, who's going in the 6th or 7th? I think it's Alvarez.

Yeah, look, you're making the case, and if you saw the video of him running on the treadmill, did you see that one? Yep. It's just 23. It's scary. It is scary. Both these had opposite.

That's, That's frightening. I mean, look, you need your knees. And, you know, especially now when I was talking about, like a draft champions for me, I need those at bat because there's no in-season fullers. I know I got 50 rounds. But he's a guy that I'm going to have to wait until spring training actually,

you know, I want to see him on the field. I want to see him hitting the ball, moving around. Because, you know, that's asking a lot. from what he's coming back with so that. Yeah, the upside is massive. The floor is also, like, it's zero. It's, you know, he, like, you draft him. He gets hurt in the first week.

He's out for the season again. Like, that is, that is legitimately the floor for Yurdon Alvarez. So at 71, I think the way that this is going to move is just dependent on off-season information. So it's really hard for us to say now. But if you had to guess, Matt, higher, lower, or about the same come March. I want to say about the same, but I'll say maybe a little higher because you'll see like a video of him running in some field or something and then crushing some, you know, BP balls.

And there's always going to be that one guy that's going to say like you can correct. I can get this guy in the late 6th, early 7th, and he's a second round, third round draft back. So for that I'll say he'll go a little higher. Yeah, let's see what happens with Alvarez. But I do agree. I think that he is someone that can, uh, could be drafted higher come March.

Mentioned the name as well earlier on, but Dom Smith, who in his last 139 games, I choose that number because that's the beginning of the 2019 season. It's 2019 and 2020 combined. He has hit 299 with 21 home runs and a 937 OPS. Matt, you had a very close eye, I'm assuming, on Dom Smith. You watch a lot of Mets games, obviously.

I think the talent is there. We have to see what happens with the DH. But I, like, I think he's a budding star in the league. Yeah, I think there's going to be a universal D.H. You know, I'm opposed to it, but I think it's inevitable now. Once, you know, once you do it, and I think the expanded playoffs are going to happen as well. So I think both sides are going to agree to help each other out here.

And that'll get worked out. And for the Mets, as currently, constructed, it works out better. I mean, Alonzo as a DH, you know, you got Smith over there. And just looking at Smith as a player from coming up with the Mets and stuff, he was a guy that was just completely out of shape when he first came up. And it was kind of disappointed. Like we see how like Vlad now lost 32 pounds over the, say the last six months, got himself in shape. You've seen

Dom Smith. I was like, when I first saw him come up, I'm like, this guy's body is not good for a pro athlete. And that's changed. I think last year he was like one of the, if he didn't lead the league, he was up there in doubles. I know that. He was just,

you know, slapping that ball around. I'm not sure where I have him yet. I think this is going to be one of the more difficult ones. Of course, I don't know what's going to happen. I think the playing time is, is he on the Mets?

Is he traded? I think this roster is going to be evolving over the course of this long winter. Yeah, and I brought up the possibility. I don't want to speculate too much, but if they go out and make a trade for a big name starting pitcher like you, Darvish, Dom Smith might be involved in that trade. And looking at their current roster resource page, you can find these over on fan graphs,

what every team's projected lineup looks like right now. They do have Dom Smith in left field, and they are using these lineups without the DH in the National League. And there's a bit of a roster crunch here. They have Jeff McNeil on the bench as of now. They have Ahmed Rosario on the bench. So it's one of these situations where he almost needs to hit if he's on the Mets come next year

because they have a lot of options behind him. I think that he will. I have faith in the player and the profile and what I've seen to this point. But 105 is the price tag at this point, Matt, which is the ninth round, shallow first base position. What do you think in here? Higher, lower, or about the same come March?

Maybe a little. I'm going to say higher because I think there needs to be, I think he needs to have secured playing time, put it that way. I think that's correct outlook for it. I'm not saying he's not a good player and what he can and can't do. But right now, if you, you know, you want a guy that's going to give you, that you know is going to have the everyday role. Yeah, I think it's going to be about the same,

this ninth round range, but it's still very early, and we have about three or four months to see what happens between now and then. If anybody listening to this followed Matt before today at CTM baseball on Twitter, you'll know that he used to have the sheriff picture of Chris Paddock as his Twitter avatar, which brings me to his early ADP of 113.5. This is Chris Paddock. So you can get him in the 10th round. Matt, you talk a lot about addition by subtraction,

and you look at pitch mixes, and, you know, you're deep dive in these pitchers. So I trust you. I trust you wholeheartedly. When it comes to Paddock, what do we do? Is he just a two-pitch guy? I mean, last year he was basically a one-pitch guy.

His fastball got smacked around. He has a phenomenal change-up. You know, he throws 93-94. He's supposed to have all the command. He tried to mix in a curveball in a cutter last year. it didn't really work. Those pitches were not good. What happened to the sheriff, Matt?

Yeah, no. It's, you know, that second time around. I was thinking the curveball was really going to be something from what you were hearing. I mean, also we do have to factor in that stoppage. You know, the season was going to go underway. And whether he was never able to develop it, it sounded like, you know, you were hearing was the curveball was developed. Obviously, it wasn't. obviously the fastball command was not there that has to come back.

I mean, right now, would you take Jack Wheeler or Chris Prattick going into next year? They're going right next to each other. They both seem like good values. Oh, yeah, but I'm going to take Zach Wheeler. I know I'm going to get the innings. He's got the contract. You know, the strikeouts weren't there for Wheeler last year. I think he can strike out more batters.

But if I had a choose between those two, just to make that argument, is a guy that had the struggles, put it together, and he's been one of the guys that go seven innings consistently. You don't get that a lot. So a guy like Wheeler, if I'm basing it off of Paddock, and I'm not saying I'm giving up on Paddock, I think he's a fierce competitor. I think he's going to do everything possible to this offseason

to get himself to that point. But right now, just to show you, like, you're in like, say, a draft room if you were there, the guy that he's going, like, right next to, I would take the other guy, but he's somebody that I'm going to have, I'm going to do a nice deep dive on, obviously, and I'm going to have on, say, a watch list that I want to see every time he's out there in the spring and he's throwing. And I want to follow him on the offseason to see what improvements have been made. So I was trying to find some quotes and read about you know, what did people who were close to the team,

what did they see when it came to Paddock throughout the regular season? AJ Preller had this to say about Paddock, who is the Padres GM in a press conference following the season. Quote, he obviously has a great change-up and developing breaking pitches, but the fastball command is the biggest thing, and we've talked about getting the fastball back to the dominant pitch

that it's been for him in the past and try to figure out why it wasn't quite that this year. referring to the 2020 season. And just looking at what they did with Denelson Lamet, like if you deep dive to Nelson Lamett's fastball from 2019 to 2020, apparently they sent people from the organization to the Dominican Republic in the off season to work with Lamet on his spin rate and develop that fastball

and really work on the command of that fastball. And that's why we saw the walks down for Denelson Lamet this past season. And I believe that if they have the people within the organization to bring that out of De Nelson Lamet, then we could get Chris Paddock back on track. To me, it really comes down to, okay, it would help if he had a third pitch,

but if he could just get the fastball back to where it was, opponents hit 204 against fastballs in 2019 for Chris Paddock. They hit 308 against a fastball in 2020. That is a hundred point jump. That is massive. That is, you don't normally see that. That is a huge jump. So this is just a name that early on,

I'm with you. I like Zach Wheeler as well. If I'm putting these two, I believe I have Zach Wheeler ranked ahead of him already. I pull up my rankings here. But Chris Paddock is someone that I have identified

where I'm kind of throwing the numbers out a little bit from this shortened season and I'm just trusting the pedigree and the stuff for him to get back on track in 2021. And honestly, Matt, I think there's a few players that we're just going to have to do that for this upcoming season. Like I think we just have to throw 2020 out for some players.

Oh, yeah, no, absolutely. some players that you can kind of throw out, but there are some players that did have real growth and you have to capture that and you have to say, you know, and expand on that going into 2021. But like you said, and as the GM pointed out, look, everything works well for the fastball. You don't have to throw the fastball 57% of the time. But if you can spot it and use it, then, you know, and you have a great change up and you could develop. a good enough curveball, that'll make you

a hell of a pitcher. That'll just expand everything for you and why it's so important. And if they did it for lament, hopefully they can do with Paddock. And I do not doubt the guy's his motivation. He's one of the guys I just absolutely love

watching him compete on the mouth. Looking at our early ranks, Scott and I both have Zach Wheeler at SP 29. And I have Paddock at 31. and he has Paddock at 34. So as of now... Like I said, my point is,

like say now if one of your listeners or somebody, you went into a draft champion where you have no season pickups and innings pitched right now is going to be key for that rotation that you're going to build, that's where you've got to look at it.

Like who are the guys going around him and how are you going to set that up? So the ADP 113 team point five in a 12 team league. This is the 10th round. Matt, I think it's a lot will depend on what he does in spring training, but I think undoubtedly it will be higher. I'm not saying you're wrong. I think it's, I think it'll stay around here for now because I think people, as you said, are going to look at the negatives. I mean, people have, you know, you get burned and some people won't go back. And I think that's the worst way to look at it. Absolutely. It's just somebody

burned you and now they become, you know, they're like a depressed stock that you love them last year. What happened? What were the reasons why? And if you did, they had the talent and it's a, it's a move here or there, a tweak, sited or rubber, whatever, then that's, you know, that's something where you could really return a nice profit on. So I'm going to say for now, it's going to stay about the same, which there are too many people that were burned, and they're going to be hesitant. Matt, I appreciate your work when it comes to pitchers, and I know in the past we've worked together, and you've pointed out and successfully called breakout seasons for James

Paxton and Aaron Nola. I don't want you to give away the secret sauce or anything, but do you have one or two guys that you're looking at earlier on that you are identifying as potentially being those breakout guys for 2021? I mean, the one guy, I think I put a tweet out. If he got like 30 starts, would return a windfall of riches this year. I think he's Jordan Montgomery of the Yankees. I think, you know, I think he's got the pitch mix, the addition by subtraction.

I think coming off of the injury, being able to pitch this year helps him tremendously. Now it's a full offseason. Yankees are a really good team. He's going later on. This is a guy that has the opportunity to hit. He would be one of the guys. I mean, I think everybody likes Zach Eflin. I think he's going to be a popular name.

I think of Freddie Peralta, you've seen the curveball and stuff. Ever got that chance? You saw him into multiple leagues. I don't know if he ever gets into that rotation and can stick. He's somebody. And I'll go back to. somebody who spurned my Mets, Marcus Stroman, who the Mets did get offered the qualifying,

gave him the qualifying offer. I think you'd be foolish to turn that down this year. I think you take that, you bank basically $20 million, and you try and piggyback that to like a multi-year deal next year. Same for Kevin Gosman, who the Giants were trying to work at a long-term,

work at a contract extension. If you look at Gossman, you know, what he was able to do down there. those last eight starts. It's really impressive. If he's back in San Francisco, if he gets traded to a good team, I think there's some good stuff there as well.

So that was just a couple of guys. There you go. Fantastic. Matt Mo Deacon, make sure you follow him on Twitter at CTM Baseball Professional High Stakes Fantasy Baseball player over at the NFBC.

Matt, thanks so much, buddy. Always a pleasure. Thanks for having you. For Maddie Mo, I am Frank Stan. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today on our YouTube channel. We'll be back again on two. Bye-bye.