Fantasy Baseball Today - Early 2022 Rankings Debates! Tim Anderson, Trevor Rogers & More w/ Justin Mason (12/8 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 8, 2021

We've got rankings debates! Joining us to do just that is Justin Mason (1:00)! ... How much playing time should we expect from Adley Rutschman in 2022 (3:30)? ... Can Ryan Mountcastle take that next s...tep (10:40)? ... What do Frank Schwindel projections look like (15:12)? ... What should we expect from Brendan Rodgers (20:00)? ... Is Tim Anderson overvalued in Fantasy (24:45)? ... Can Ke'Bryan Hayes bounce back (35:22)? ... Is Mike Trout still worth that early pick (39:53)? ... Is Randy Arozarena's profile risky (44:20)? ... Who is 2022's Cedric Mullins (49:06)!? ... Who is the real Trevor Rogers (53:30)?  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Centerfield. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Starting point is 00:00:25 Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam. It may only be December 8th, but people are drafting me, and it's never too early for rankings debates. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today. Frank Stamphill joined as always. by Scott White, and there is no chance that I will be the one that's debating Scott on his rankings, because I don't have rankings. That means joining us on today's show, the co-owner of Friends with Fantasy Benefits, the creator of the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He writes for Fangraphs. You can listen to him on The Sleeper and the Bus podcast. Friend of the program, someone we've had
Starting point is 00:00:58 on here many times. Justin Mason, what is going on? Justin, how we doing? I'm doing fantastic. It's nice to see you guys this holiday season. I love how festive Scott is right now. But Frank, you're slacking, man. No ranks to debate yet. I mean, I got to start doing something because, like, I have a bunch of different people's ranks like in Excel sheets and I got projections going and I'm starting to draft and I don't know. Like, I'm formulating all these opinions. I just kind of like, I got to lay it out. I got to put it all in order. But don't worry. We're working on it. We're getting in the lab. Some things are going to happen. Scott, what's up, man? Doing good. Doing good. I like how you're kind of
Starting point is 00:01:36 outsourcing contention so you can keep your nice guy image. Oh yeah. Bring in Justin in who I barely know. And now we're just going to argue about, you know, minutia. So that's good. Yeah. Again, like,
Starting point is 00:01:50 you hit a spot on, Scott, because like on top of that, I don't know that I'm going to declare any winners of these debates or anything, like, but look, I think it's good for people to hear both sides of,
Starting point is 00:02:01 you know, the upside argument, the downside argument. So obviously, I chose a bunch of different players that you guys have ranked. very differently. Justin, you mentioned the festivity behind Scott. We talked yesterday about how great he is at gift wrapping.
Starting point is 00:02:13 How are you? How are you with the wrapping the gifts? I enjoy it. I do well enough, but it's sloppy. It's to say the least. It kind of fits into my whole persona, I guess. I saw someone on TikTok the other day, like teaching people how to wrap presents
Starting point is 00:02:33 in shapes that the present isn't actually, in. And so it's like he wrapped like a book into a flamingo. I'm like, I want to learn how to do that. That's what I need to do. Like, you know, my kid thinks they're getting a bike and it's like, you know, a pad of paper or something like that. That's, that's what I was there. That's awesome. That's like the ultimate Christmas troll job for your kids. So, oh man, I never heard of that. But that definitely sounds like a rabbit hole that I can go down later on. If anyone out there needs a Christmas give, you can go to Rotoware and buy a shirt with Justin's face on it because there's like 50 different of them. Also the shirt that he's wearing right there is from Rotoware. No, they
Starting point is 00:03:12 didn't pay me to say that, but they're good people and I have a few of their shirts as well. And I just remembered that Justin's face is like all over their website. Anyway, let's jump right in because I have like 12 different players for us to talk about and chances are we're not going to get to all of them because that's just what I do on every single podcast. But let's jump right into it and we'll start at the catcher position. Who doesn't love to talk about catchers? Adley Rutchman, currently ranked as the 10th catcher for Justin Mason, the 20th catcher for our own Scott White, the first overall pick in the 2019 MLBD draft. I don't think that either of you are going to doubt the skills of an Adley Ruchman.
Starting point is 00:03:47 I think this really just comes down to playing time, how soon we see Adley Ruchman. But with that, I will turn it over to, let's start with Scott, Home Court Advantage. Okay, yeah, I mean, obviously, if you could tell me Adly Rushman, is going to be up opening day or within the first couple weeks of the season even. I could get behind drafting him as a number one catcher, but there's no telling what he's going to be up at this point. And considering the Orioles aren't competing for anything, it might not be until mid-season.
Starting point is 00:04:19 It might not be until even later than that. And, you know, ranking him 20th, I feel like is pretty aggressive in its own right, because in a two-catcher league, that still means I'm recommending somebody draft him. But in a one-catcher league, league, you know, the idea that you're going to keep him around until he gets called up. Like, roster space is just too precious for that and to carry a second catcher who, you know, obviously as good as he is, who knows what kind of impact he makes, what he gets called up either.
Starting point is 00:04:48 So I'm, I'm anxious to hear what Justin has to say about it, frankly, what his justification, what Justin's justification is for ranking for ranking Rushman 10th. Well, I'll just point this out. The Orioles can still make moves. They can sign a catcher if they want, but according to Rasta Resource, the two catchers on their roster right now, Brett Cumberland and Cody Roberts, they sound like great fellows.
Starting point is 00:05:15 I don't know anything about either one of those guys. I don't know how aggressive they're going to be with Ruchman, but he was amazing in AA and AAA this past season, 285, 23 homers, 79 walks to 90 strikeouts, like his plate discipline's already there. He's awesome. Over 123 games.
Starting point is 00:05:31 Justin, how are we feeling about Adley Rutchman? How soon do you think that we see him with the Orioles? I mean, with the way that he just kind of murdered AAA in that 43-game sample to end the year, you have to think that they're going to get aggressive with him. And this is an Orioles team that needs to put butts in the seat at some point. I think they're like the smallest market team in Major League Baseball, so it's hard enough for them to make a profit in comparison to other teams in the league. And this is the fun part about rankings at this time here.
Starting point is 00:06:02 Because if we had done this podcast last week, you would have seen Rushman at like 23 or 24 in my catcher ranks. And I moved him up last night because I wrote up catchers and catcher ADP movement for fan graphs yesterday. And I did a little bit deeper dive. And I'm like, man, I think he's going to be up. Once we know what the CBA looks like, right? This could all change. We were talking about this off air right before the start, right? is we have no idea what the collective bargaining,
Starting point is 00:06:31 you know, agreement is going to be in terms of service time and whether or not they're going to keep this, you know, kind of loophole where teams get this extra year by holding guys down for three to four weeks. If that's still in place, then he's up, I think right after that, he's one of the first guys up. And the problem with a catcher pool in general is it's just blah, right? You get past like the first like five or six guys,
Starting point is 00:06:54 and it's like, I don't really care. So I'm going to shoot for the moon on a guy like Rushman and hope that he comes up early enough. If he doesn't, then, you know, I may have burned myself a little bit. But the difference between him and catcher 20, like Scott has him, you know, what is it? Like three or four home runs, like, you know, 15 points of batting average. It's really not that bit. Yeah. I mean, it depends how you feel about guys like Mitch Garver and Alejandro Kirk, who I have outside my top 10 still.
Starting point is 00:07:26 but, you know, there's reason to think both of them have considerable upside, too. And obviously, if we hear in March, if spring training is unfolding and, you know, we really start to get an inkling, he's going to make the team, I'll move freshman way up. And, you know, most of my teams that actually matter, I'll rank, we'll have him ranked appropriately for that scenario. But yeah, I mean, I kind of, I wonder if, okay, say you draft Rushman 10th is your number one catcher. He's not up at the start of the year. How long do you wait? Like, what do you do in the meantime having taken him where you did? I mean, it all depends on the depth of your league, right?
Starting point is 00:08:09 If we're talking like a 10-team two-catcher league or a 10-team one-catcher league, like there's a fair amount of replacement value, you know, on the market. When you start getting into kind of the deeper leagues, a 15-team league, you know, you're kind of just, you know. You're obviously stashing him there, yeah. Yeah, you're kind of just taking, you know, whatever is available on the wire. I mean, if you're making the pick, especially considering where he's going to be going in drafts, you know, and currently, if I can bring him up real quick.
Starting point is 00:08:43 His ADP is 197.8 over on the NFBC. That's not a bad price, actually. So but NFBC that's mostly 15 team leagues, you know, because the draft champions are the most popular format right now, along with the NFBC 50s, which are 12 team leagues. But those are two catchers. So you're talking like probably 20th round. It's a hard. That's a hard decision to make because in NFBC specifically, there is no bench, right? Or there is no like IL. There's no place to stack. You've got to take that draft. That bad spot. It is. It's really frustrating, but it causes you to make decisions, right? So if we're talking about like a draft Champions League where you've got 50 rounds of picks,
Starting point is 00:09:31 I'm more likely to go after. If you're talking about a Fab League, an NFBC Fab League, where you can't, like, put him on an IL or a minor league slot like you might be able to in a CBS League. I'm probably less likely to draft him because it, you know, injuries happen like that. We've seen this. I've seen this with a number of my teams in the past where it's like, oh, I'll just stash this guy till May.
Starting point is 00:09:55 And then May comes and it's like, oh, now my season's over because I lost three or four other guys. And, you know, and so I think it's really taking shots on guys like Rushman, largely based on what kind of format you're playing in. Don't,
Starting point is 00:10:09 like always cater to your league's rule and your format's rules. Steamer has Adley projected for 98 games. Just real quick, I'll give you guys over under here. Justin, what do you think? Over 98 games for Adley-Rutchman? Yeah, I'm going to say over. What do you think, Scott? It might be over that many games on the roster,
Starting point is 00:10:27 but in terms of being in the lineup, I'll take the under. Yeah, I think that makes sense. I did have a second catcher to debate here, but definitely more interesting players to talk about. So if we have time at the end, we'll get to that one. But let's just stick around in Baltimore here, because the first baseman that you guys differ on is Ryan Mountcastle.
Starting point is 00:10:43 He is the seventh first baseman in the ranks for Justin Mason. He is 13th for Scott. And if you remember this past season, Ryan Mountcastle was awful in April. But from May 1st on, 266 batting average, 32 homers, 82 RBI, 853 OPS during that span. And hits a decent amount of line drives. Stackass date is not great for Mountcastle, but I don't think you really need to impact the ball all that hard when you play in Camden when you play in the American League East. So, Justin, we'll start with you. Why so aggressive here on Ryan Malkaston?
Starting point is 00:11:15 man all he's ever done through the minor leagues and into the major leagues is hit and people always pick up things go i don't like the eggs of velocity i don't think he's a guy who really barrels the ball but all he does is hit and one of the things that i'm really hammered last year i'm going to continue to hammer this year as position is position eligible and he's first base in outfield eligible when you talk about catcher being bad and catcher is the worst position in fantasy in terms of death the next worst one is probably outfield and so again you're Getting that outfield eligibility is really nice, especially if you're playing in 15-teen leagues with five outfield slots. You're playing three outfield slots. Yeah, outfield's fine, whatever. But in a five-outfield slot league, outfield gets kind of ugly after a little while. And I just love kind of the position he's in in Baltimore.
Starting point is 00:12:03 He's going to hit in the middle of that lineup in a really nice park, like you said, against pitchers in the ALE East, which I'm not as afraid of. Yeah, I'm a big Mountcastle guy. This is probably aggressive, but I'm, I'm here for it. Do you think outfield's worse than third base? Yeah, I was about to say, do you hear that knocking? That's third base knocking.
Starting point is 00:12:22 And they're just here to remind you just how awful that position is. Talked about it on yesterday's podcast. I actually did wind up with Justin Turner in the 11th round of this draft that I'm doing, which, look, as a fallback option at third base, I think I'm okay with, right? All things considered there getting him where I did. But yeah, third base is pretty shallow. I have noticed, so like, once you get past the top, I don't know, 30, 40, there are
Starting point is 00:12:46 outfielders that you can draft, but they're not really impact names, impact bats, so something I've noticed about. And the thing with third base versus outfield is you only have to draft one third base. You might draft a second for your CI spot, but you only have to draft one.
Starting point is 00:13:02 You have to draft five outfielders. And when you're in like, you know, pick 307 and you're looking at the options there, it can make you gag a little. So, So in my early draft so far, I've definitely hammered outfield early on. All right, Scott, you have Ryan Mountcastle down at first, your 13th first baseman,
Starting point is 00:13:24 considerably lower than Justin. Why is that? Well, I mean, 13th at first base. I mean, look, he's still plenty. He's plenty usable, I think. I just can't get excited about drafting Ryan Mountcastle because, okay, you look at his profile, and it's so home run dependent. And we've mentioned the exit velocity.
Starting point is 00:13:46 There's nothing special there. Maybe he'll hit 33 home runs again, but I certainly don't think you could count on it. I think between 25 and 30 is the more likely scenario from Ryan Moutcastle. And then what else is there? His plate discipline is horrible. He's in a bad lineup.
Starting point is 00:14:03 So relative to the number of home runs, he hits, the runs and RBI are both going to suffer. Can he gain ground and batting average? I mean, he did hit for average in the minors, but the strikeout rate and just the amount he puts the ball in the air, I'm not really counting on huge improvement there either. So I think bad supporting cast and really the fact there's nothing else going on but power, which itself is maybe not as good as he showed last year.
Starting point is 00:14:30 I think I get more excited about like a C.J. Crohn or Reese Hoskins, even like a Josh Bell than I do more on Castle. Yeah, that's what I was going to point out. That's basically the difference between you and Justin. You have a few of those names just ahead of him. I know that, obviously, Scott, like, you're pretty excited about Joey Votto still. Not that Justin has Votto ranked low.
Starting point is 00:14:51 It's 12 first basement off the board. I don't think that's bad at all. Early ADP has Ryan Mountcastle currently as the eighth first basement off the board, 113.7. So some people may be buying that there's another gear, another level for Ryan Mountcastle to get to. I wanted to quickly mention at first base, Frank Schwendell. I mean, this is a huge disparity.
Starting point is 00:15:14 And anyone who listens to the podcast down the stretch this year knows we are huge Frank Schwindell fans. Frankie Two hits is what we started calling him towards the end of the season. Just a unique player, 29-year-old journeyman, got the opportunity to play with the Cubs after everybody was traded away from their team. And he became an everyday player in August. Played 55 games. He had two or more hits in 25 of those 55 games.
Starting point is 00:15:37 Like, that is awesome. That is amazing from Frank Shundel. Scott, you have him as the 17th first baseman. Justin, you have him down as the 30th first baseman. And it's actually pretty interesting because I saw on Twitter some people talking about lofty projections from steamer on Frank Shwindel. He's currently projected 270 homer 75 RBI. So that's pretty lofty, I would say, for a journeyman. Scott, you get the first word.
Starting point is 00:16:04 This is more of like a deeper league, you know, corner infield type bat. Why so much higher on Frank Schindel? Frank Schwendell is one of those players that's, of course, very difficult to rank because 29-year-old is getting his first real opportunity in the majors. And I think, obviously, you can't take the numbers at face value. But I also have a difficult time dismissing somebody who puts up those kinds of numbers over two months. So, you know, where do you put them? And I tend to slot those guys, depending on, you know,
Starting point is 00:16:37 whether or not I like them or dislike them in a sort of nebulous sense. I tend to stick them kind of in between tiers at a position. And this is where Schwendell lands for me, 17th at the position. That's behind Mountcastle and Jared Walsh. It's behind Luke Voigt, presuming Luke Void is the Yankees' first basement again. But it's ahead of guys that I just don't really think are capable of making a big fantasy impact anymore. like Anthony Rizzo and I have doubts about Tray Mancini, Jonathan Scopes, never
Starting point is 00:17:11 been that kind of guy. You know, there's clear limits to that trio's upside, I think. So I'd rather, that's the point where I want to gamble on a guy like Schindel who, you know, got stuck in the minors for a long time, but he was a really good hitter there. He struck out only 15% of the time in the majors. That's a great
Starting point is 00:17:28 rate. He's got an up-the-middle approach. It seems like he's really built for batting average, both based on what he did in the majors and throughout his minorly career. So I do think there might be something here. And that's the point where I'm comfortable gambling on it. All right.
Starting point is 00:17:43 Yeah. Overall, Frank Schmandel hit 326, 14 homers, a 962 OPS over 64 games. You mentioned how much contact he makes. It's a great mark for him. 15.8% strikeout rate has had a few big seasons in the miners. Reminds me a little bit of Christian Walker a couple years ago. Someone who kept dominating the minors, kind of like a quad A player, got his opportunity and was okay for a while.
Starting point is 00:18:06 Maybe Frank Mendeau can do something similar. But, Justin, what do you think? Why so low on Frankie 2 hits? You know what? I'm starting to come around on... I like it called Frankie 2. It's like every day. That's a good nickname.
Starting point is 00:18:23 You know, my biggest concern is the Cubs. Like, I don't know what the Cubs are doing. And are they going to be a team that brings in more talent in the infield as they've been rumored to maybe want to do? And does that take away some of Schwendell's playing time? I mean, obviously what he did at the end of the season was amazing. Like it was like out of this world. Like I don't understand how he like kept up like a 92% zone contact percentage, which is just elite.
Starting point is 00:18:54 Yeah, he should be higher in my ranks. I'm going to fix that tonight. When you go and look at my ranks tomorrow for those of you who subscribe to my Patreon, it will be higher. And you can thank Scott White of CBS. All right. Very nice. Yeah, we're moving the needle here.
Starting point is 00:19:09 That's something that I do appreciate, Justin, that you and Paul do on the Sleeper in the Bus podcast is like, if one of you guys make good points, Justin's like, yeah, you're right. I'm going to move them up like 10 spots in my rankings. So I can appreciate the transparency and doing that right here on the podcast. This is why you surround yourself with smart people, right? Because I'm going to have biases in what I do. Like, I'm going to come out and say, oh, this is what I think. And often someone's going to say something to me that,
Starting point is 00:19:36 Maybe I didn't think of, or maybe I wasn't waiting properly. And having those smart people around you kind of help. You kind of, you know, fix that. So I love having these discussions because, you know, by the time we get to the big money drafts in March, I want to have this stuff dialed it. All right. Yeah, you mentioned smart people. I would say there's one other smart person on this podcast, and it's not me.
Starting point is 00:19:55 So good job, Scott. He's talking about you. Brendan Rogers, next up here at the second base position, the 31st second baseman for Justin 15th for Scott in the second base ranks. former third overall pick back in 2015, really has not been able to stay healthy until this past season, where he hit 284, 15 homers, 51 RBI, over 102 games, solid strikeout rate, made a decent amount of contact. 20% was the strikeout rate.
Starting point is 00:20:22 Don't love how many ground balls that he hit all the way up at 51% there. Had these really weird home road splits that we talked about a ton towards the end of the season, 12 of 15 home runs coming on the road this past year. So some obvious regression, hopefully, coming for Brennan Rogers at home. Justin, we'll let you start this time. Why so much lower on Brendan Rogers here at second base? I mean, a lot of it has to do with health. I just don't know that this guy's going to stay on the field.
Starting point is 00:20:50 And the other part of it is the Rockies, man. The Rockies do some of the dumbest things I've ever seen a professional sports organization do. Like, they just hate on their own, like, young talent and blocks. them and sign weird guys to, you know, and I just don't trust the organization as a whole. And so the combination of those two things means I've got to kind of temper my expectations on something as Rocky guys. Like I've been the guy who's been kicking the football, you know, Charlie Brown trying to kick the football on Garrett Hampson for years.
Starting point is 00:21:23 And at some point, your butt just hurts too much after falling on it too often. So I see the talent. I think there is quite a bit of talent in his bat. if he stays on the field for a full season, then yeah, playing Colorado, if he's getting the at-bats. Those are a lot of ifs. And I don't like to draft with ifs. I like to draft with things I can feel a lot more confident with. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:46 And the second base position, middle infield in general, is actually pretty good this year, too. So there's, it's a pretty deep talent pool overall there with both of those positions. Currently, penciled in as a starting second baseman for the Rockies, as you mentioned. I agree with you, like a bunch of the things, you know, go as. John Gray. You know, they didn't trade him away. They didn't give him the qualifying offer. And then, of course, they just let them walk for nothing.
Starting point is 00:22:07 So, like, they just make head-scratching decisions all the time. The lineup is kind of bad. Like, let's be honest, if Trevor's story doesn't return, which doesn't look like that's going to happen, if they don't bring anyone else in, this is a pretty bad lineup. Overall, I like the talent, but we've got to see what else happens here with the Rockies.
Starting point is 00:22:23 Scott, I'm pretty sure I know why you like him, but let's remind everyone. Well, I did obsess over Brendan Rogers down the stretch last. season. I mean, I get what you're saying, why you might want to fade Rogers, but we're 31st at second base. Right now I have Cesar Hernandez 31st at second base. I have Enrique Hernandez like 24th. That is so low for a guy who's going to play half his games at Cores Field and has an elite prospect pedigree who finally showed signs of life last year hitting over 280, had an OPS
Starting point is 00:22:58 near 800. You know, I felt like he should be able to do. better still, and I think he will. You mentioned Frank, only three of his 15 home runs came at home. That's just bizarre. And I think we'll see a more even distribution this year. And while, yeah, I mean, obviously he's proven to be an injury risk
Starting point is 00:23:16 over the years, including missing the start of last season. Once he got healthy from that hamstring injury, the Rockies were ready to go with them. They just left them in there. And while they do tend to make weird moves, I think they've settled on Brendan Rogers
Starting point is 00:23:31 is their second basement. Well, if not their shortstop, now that Trevor Story appears to be headed elsewhere. I think there was talk that they might actually put Ryan McMahon at shortstop instead of Brennan Rogers. Yeah. This is what I'm talking. Oh, gosh.
Starting point is 00:23:48 I think in order to keep Rogers healthy, but like this is what I'm talking about. Like, this is an organization. I just do not trust. Yeah. I did think it was interesting. He did not attempt a single steal this past season. You know, originally part of his skill. we thought that, you know, speed would be a factor there.
Starting point is 00:24:04 He dealt with... They talked about it and spying. Yeah. And I wonder if he hadn't, I mean, obviously, it was a pretty serious hamstring injury. He suffered. And I wonder if that, you know, if he heads into the season without those concerns, if that might change. Obviously, I'm not counting on steals for Brendan Rogers, but... He hasn't stolen a base since the minor leagues in 2018.
Starting point is 00:24:23 Yeah. Jeez. All right. Well, no steals from Brendan Rogers. We're writing that off. But I think if he raises the launch angle a little bit in particular and manages to stay healthy, this is someone who can, you know, if everything breaks right from to 80, 20 to 25 home runs out of the middle infield spot, I think, you know, that could be pretty valuable there for one, Brendan Rogers.
Starting point is 00:24:44 Let's move on to shortstop here. And Tim Anderson, Mr. Anderson, the fourth shortstop in Justin's rankings, 13th for Scotty. This past season, Tim Anderson hit 309, 17 homers, 94 runs scored, 18. steals. I was a big, big fan of Tim Anderson heading into this past season. And it was mostly because I thought he can be at 2020, maybe push like 25 steals, something like that. He was fine when he played. Part of his issue is that he does miss games pretty regularly. He's missed 89 games over the past three seasons. That's 23% of the total games available. Scotty, we will start with you. Why much lower here on Tim Anderson?
Starting point is 00:25:28 Well, obviously, shortstop is a loaded position. We have to start there. I mean, Tim Anderson should be drafted as a starter even in 12 team leagues. Somebody should be starting one of the 12 shortstops I rank ahead of him somewhere else. Somebody's going to double up at shortstop there to get him in their lineup. So that's the place to start here. But, you know, it's always been the case with Tim Anderson that I think people overestimate his power and especially his speed,
Starting point is 00:26:01 he still, to this point, has only 120 steel season. If he hadn't gotten her last year, okay, he would have been a second 20 steel season. But it's not like he's this potential 30-30 guy. You know, with good health, he could be 20-20 with a good batting effort. And again, that's valuable.
Starting point is 00:26:19 He doesn't get on base much otherwise, bad on-based skills. But, you know, he just doesn't have that peak skill set that so many short stops have where they can really dominate a category and maybe maybe you could make the case the sum is greater than the whole or I don't think I said that right but you know what I'm saying um you know I know people make that argument with Ozzie Albies too and uh okay fair enough but when you factor in the injury risk for Anderson the fact that he's um not on base a ton even with that high batting average the fact that
Starting point is 00:26:56 he needs this crazy outlier. Babbip to sustain that high batting average. I just, I don't think he's a standout at a position full of standouts. Yeah, I think that part that you mentioned about, I guess it would be his parts are greater than the sum. Some of all the parts are greater than the whole. Yes, what Justin said. That's exactly why we brought him on the podcast, because I knew that that was going to happen
Starting point is 00:27:19 at some point. But when you actually think about it, if Tim Anderson could stay healthy for 140 plus games, he should go 20-20. He's hit over 300 each of the past three seasons. That's valuable, and he's leading off for one of the best lineups in the game, so he could theoretically score 100 runs as well. So I think you're right, Scott. It's not like some crazy upside that he has,
Starting point is 00:27:40 but it's just like you put all those things together, and that's a pretty damn valuable player. So, Justin, I think we pretty much just made the case for you, but... Yeah, I think you did. It's five-category production, but what Scott is saying is true, like, this is the deepest position in fantasy. So like, if you rank him 13th, there are 14 short stops going in the top 100 of NFBC drafts right now. Like, like the difference between fourth and 13th really isn't as it would be maybe at another position.
Starting point is 00:28:13 I like Tim Anderson because you're getting power, you're getting speed, and you can then build your team in a lot of different directions after you take him. But I don't have like, like, I'm not going to like go out, Scott, like, hey, what are you doing? and Tim Anderson's fourth overall. Come on. Yeah. You got to do that. You have a preference thing? So like why would you, why do you prefer Tim Anderson to, I mean, I assume you have
Starting point is 00:28:37 Trevor Story ranked lower than fourth at short stuff? I do. I think I have like fifth or six. I don't know where stories landed. Yeah. I mean, that obviously is. He will probably jump over him as long as he doesn't end up in a place. It's like a park that's bad.
Starting point is 00:28:52 But until I know exactly where. I can't pull the trigger. Yeah. You know, I'm not worried about, I'm not worried about like a chorus hangover, anything like that. I think that kind of stuff's overblown. Over somebody like Bogarts, you're just thinking, okay, Anderson's going to give me some steals and Bogarts probably won't.
Starting point is 00:29:09 Yeah, pretty much. And I like Bogarts a lot of the guy of Bogart's six or seventh in my ranks. Let's see, I have Bogart's fifth. So I have Anderson, four, Bogart's five, story six. So, yeah, I like Bogart's. I like the fact that he has stolen or shown the ability to steal bases too, but it's a little bit more fluky the stolen base numbers with Bogarts than it is. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:35 I don't count on many from Bogarts. Yeah. Maybe we get something like six to eight steals, I think, for Zander Bogarts. Obviously, a solid batting average. Homer's really good counting stats from him. I think it's just like a preference of how you want to build your team. Do you have Wander Franco ahead of Tim Anderson? I do not.
Starting point is 00:29:51 I have Wander Franco 11th. Wow, that might be the lowest I've heard. Yeah, I am not a big, like, I think Wander Franco is going to be a really, really, really great major league baseball player. And I think he's going to be a really good fantasy player in the long term. I don't know that he's there yet. I think really what he is is a flashier, younger version of D.G. LeMayhew, who I can get like 60 picks later right now. and Dijlamehue is eligible at first, second, and third base where Wander Franco is eligible at short. Now, that may be a little bit hyperbolic, but we're talking about a guy who's, what, 20?
Starting point is 00:30:31 Like, I can't take him in the third round of a 15-teamor right now, and that's where he's going. Yeah, it's higher than I'd take him, for sure. I have him eighth at shortstop, and, yeah, I mean, some people have them in their top five. So I agree, you're just going further with it than I'm going. But it does kind of sound like, and we're kind of, you know, one question is leading to another at this point. It does kind of sound like you're counting on a pretty big bounce back from DJ LeMay here by making that comparison. I think so. I mean, you know, I know like he fell off this year, but I just, I believe the track record with him.
Starting point is 00:31:09 I really do. I don't think this is the end of him. He's in a really, really great lineup when that lineup is somewhat healthy. I should score a ton of runs in the triple eligibility, man. Like I said before, I'm pounding eligibility once again because we saw the amount of injuries over the course of the 2021 season, over the course of the 2019 season, 2020 season. And especially if you're an NFBC player like me, having these guys who can kind of fill a lot of different spots when you don't have an IEL. It's huge.
Starting point is 00:31:39 Yeah. Scott, you're asking all the right questions. So I think I might just leave and just let you host the rest of this thing. But no, I think it's all fair points that you made there. Lamehue, by the way, dealt with a core injury this past. season. They didn't really tell us when it started. I mean, he could have been playing with it for half the season. We just don't know. He did have a sports hernia surgery right after the season ended. So that's worth noting there on the Mayhew. And as for Wanda Franco, he is, you're right,
Starting point is 00:32:04 20 years old. He's like, this guy can't even drink spiked egg knock for Christmas. Like, what's going on, man? And he doesn't turn 21 until March. So he's still young. And I don't know that the power is going to be there right away. I don't know if the speed's going to be there right away. But if he grows into it soon, then we could see. Like, there's just no, there's no limit for how good he can be. Justin, you're like, his ADP has been like the three, four turn so far of 15 teamers. The first draft that I've done, I got him at the end of the fifth round. I actually set his max pick at pick 70s. So I saw him there. I didn't really think twice about it. I'm just like, this is the latest he's been around. I really would like to have a share of Wander Franco. I'm just
Starting point is 00:32:46 going to take him. I didn't really think. twice about it. So yeah. Yeah. At that point, like, I guess it's, it's not a bad gamble to take,
Starting point is 00:32:53 I guess. I just, even there, I don't know that I, I mean, if he ends up hitting like 280 with 16 home runs and like a hand, you know, three or four stolen bases,
Starting point is 00:33:04 you're going to be kicking yourself, taking them in the fifth or six round. Like, and I think that's a reasonable, you know, projection. It's conservative, but it's also reasonable because it's not an easy park necessarily
Starting point is 00:33:17 to hit him, right? Tampa Bay. We saw this with Willie Adamas when he leaves and goes to Milwaukee and just tears the cover off the ball because that batting eye in Tampa Bay. He's young. Pitchers are now going to get, you know, he's going to have to see pitchers again, you know, and see if he can catch up to him. I think he's going to be good. Like I really do think he's going to be, like, I don't think this contract he signed is going to be a bust at all. I think this is going to end up working out really, really well for the raise. And him as well. He's getting $180 million. That's never a bad thing to get that kind of money.
Starting point is 00:33:51 But at the same time, like, fantasy goodness and real-life goodness are two different things. I don't think we talk about it enough in the industry. Definitely could happen for Wander Franco. I definitely see it. I'm hoping he turns into second year Wansoto. That would be absolutely ridiculous. There's been, like, so many comments between those two. But, like, Juan Soto is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
Starting point is 00:34:13 It's a pretty big ask of Wander Franco this early in his career. Let's take a quick break when we were at the time. turn, Cabrian Hayes. Scott already turned his back on him. We'll talk about it next here, fantasy baseball today. All right, so let's talk about Brian Hayes. He is 11th in Justin's third base ranks. He is 19th for Scott. Talked about it a lot, enough already today as well. Third base is quite a bad position. He was the player that Scott loved on Valentine's Day. So maybe we should just hand it off to Justin Mason. And Justin, we will let you kick us off. Why do you like Cabrion Hayes so much? I mean, this is this, this may be.
Starting point is 00:34:47 end up turning out to be like a bad relationship for me because I was one of the people who loved him a lot coming into last year as well and he got hurt and kind of ruined probably 13 of my 2019 when he wasn't wasn't playing for me but I just love the skill set I still believe that this is an Anthony like early career Anthony Rendon profile and that's a guy who was like a borderline borderline first round pick when he was early on in his career. So, you know, we're talking about a guy who can probably get 25, maybe even more home runs, double-jet, stolen bases with a good batting average. Is it going to happen?
Starting point is 00:35:28 Maybe not. But like you said, like, once you get past those, like, first five or six third baseman, it's kind of a mess. And, you know, it's kind of just kind of cherry-picking the guys you like. And Hayes is one of the guys I really like. Yeah, so the top nine rounds out with Chris Bryant, Alex Bregman, and Anthony Rendon right now in ADP. And once you get past that, you get LaMayhew, you get Cabrion Hayes, you all Moncada. So really, you want to try and get one of those top nine, I would say.
Starting point is 00:35:59 And I think you're spot on. The comp that we made last year, or I made with him, was Anthony Rendon. Like, that's the ceiling if Cabrion Hayes could get there, because I feel like the skill set is very similar for reasons that you laid out. But now it's just a matter of him, I guess, bouncing back. in terms of health and putting it all together. I don't know that it's actually going to happen, but there is a chance, given that prospect pedigree. Scotty, where are we at on Cabrion Hayes?
Starting point is 00:36:23 Yeah, so, I mean, I definitely can still foresee a scenario where Cabrion Hayes ends up being a top 12, third baseman and fantasy. And I definitely think there's something, too, kind of the blind faith pick when you don't know where else to turn and third base is weak. So I can almost get it. it, but, you know, taking them 11th at the position means you're passing up guys like
Starting point is 00:36:49 Matt Chapman and, and Joan Moncada, who we've seen do it before at the major league level. And I don't think those are blind faith pigs. I mean, obviously, you're gambling that they'll bounce back. But with more assurances, I think, that could Brian Hayes has to offer. I mean, the biggest thing for me is just that you mentioned it hurt all those teams where you drafted Hayes when he wasn't in your lineup. It hurt when he was in your lineup, too. There was nothing redeeming about
Starting point is 00:37:19 Cibrian Hayes' stat line last year. It was just a total lost season. And maybe it was because he was still feeling the after effects of that hand injury. That certainly could be it. But, you know, you compare what happened last year. You look at his minor league track record, which is mostly one inspiring.
Starting point is 00:37:38 That's what made that 2020 emergence so surprising. And so you're really basing a lot on, you know, just that couple weeks of playing time in 2020 when, you know, when there's a lot bigger sample last year, that shows a lot less. So, yeah, I just, I can see Hayes is like a late round, you know, flyer for your corner infield spot, preferably for your bench. But to draft them as my starting third baseman, I just think that's too much. much faith for me. Yeah, and I think that there's a lot of people that still have that faith, Scott, because the early ADP is 147.7. When you're doing that, you're being drafted as a borderline starter at third base. And if not, definitely as a, as a corner infielder in a five-by-five roto league. So I think people are still kind of holding on to that prospect pedigree and the hope for
Starting point is 00:38:31 upside with him. I got to tell you, Justin's rankings here match up with early ADP, a lot better than mine do so far. Well, yeah, that's because everyone's drafting off Justin's rankings. Not, just kidding. It's got to be it. That's got to be it. All right, let's move on to the outfield. And we're saving the best for last year.
Starting point is 00:38:51 We got some heavy hitters here. And Mike Trout, currently 12th in Justin's outfield ranks. He is fifth for Scott. And we talked about recently when we did the outfield review from this past season and an early look at Scott's rankings. The injury from this past year was just like super fluke. with Mike Trout, diagnosed with that calf strain in mid-May, given a six to eight-week timeline, and then wound up missing the entire season. Just didn't return. It didn't really make sense for them
Starting point is 00:39:20 once they get to August and they're basically out of it at that point. It's like why rush back, you know, one of the best players on the planet. But even with that, he's missed time before this. Since the start of 2017, he's missed 33% of his games to injury. Even if you take out this past season from 2017 to 2020 he missed 19% of his games that's still you know a pretty pretty decent margin that's one-fifth of the games available to him so uh scott you can lay out the argument here uh the pro argument for mike trout i don't i don't know that you need to say much i mean for like a decade people for for a decade i've abided by the saying underestimate Mike Trout
Starting point is 00:40:06 at your own peril and last year was the first year that that was proven incorrect because of that calf injury and obviously before then he was still Mike Trouty at 333 at a 1090 OPS
Starting point is 00:40:19 he was amazing and I still think when he's on the field there's no bat that I project better numbers for than Mike Trout he doesn't run anymore so you know it's fair
Starting point is 00:40:31 not to have him as the number one outfielder anymore I think you could even make a compelling case not to draft him in the first round. But, you know, the only case for that is because you're still worried about the calf. And I just don't think, like, it was incredulous. I was incredulous that he would miss
Starting point is 00:40:53 even the rest of the first half when the injury happened, much less the rest of the season. And then after an off season of rest on top of it, like that can't still be an issue. going into next year. If it is, we'll know pretty early, and I'll adjust, obviously, before I draft my teams. But right now, I have no reason to believe that's going to be an issue. Yeah, I did find this quote from an article over on the athletic in late September, where Trout said that he was close to 100% at that point. He also said, once I talked to the trainers and talked to the front office
Starting point is 00:41:23 and made the decision to shut it down, I kind of took a little bit of time off, and then I started doing things again. I started running. I started working out. I'm feeling great. I don't feel it at all. He said that towards the end of September, we'll see if he actually means it by the time we get closer to spring training, obviously. Justin, is this just solely about the injuries or is there anything else you're worried about with Trout? I mean, it's mostly about the injuries. I agree with Scott. Like, when you're talking about like a per game, you know, production, like, I mean, he's still one of the greatest players in major league baseball. That being said, he also doesn't run. You mentioned this already, Frank. You know, I don't think that part of his game's coming back.
Starting point is 00:42:02 It kind of depends on what you value coming in. And if he is, in fact, healthy as we start getting to pitchers and casual reporting and March, you probably bump up my ranks, you know, three or four spots, but maybe even into the top five. But I don't know that I'm going to get him up there where he used to be because speed's not a part of his game anymore. Like that is a huge part of the fantasy game is if you're not getting speed in your first few rounds, it's hard to get it later on. And so if you're playing in a roto format, obviously, points league, it's, it's different.
Starting point is 00:42:39 It can bump him back up a little bit more. But in a roto format where you need those stolen bases, it hurts that he doesn't get him, you know? Yeah. Yeah, I would still argue that he is a borderline first round pick, probably very firmly in the first round in a points league, just given his, his plate discipline and his ability to walk still and everything else that he does. But yeah, yeah, like, he's probably not going to run much. The last time we saw him over a full season, not even a full season, was 2019, 134 games.
Starting point is 00:43:08 He stole 11 bases, so he's not a zero, but he's not going to contribute the same number of steals that other players in that range are going to provide. All right. Well, let's continue in the outfield here with Randy Rosa Rana, who, Justin, you have as your 18th ranked outfielder. Scott has down as his 27th outfielder. And I mentioned that I took him in the fourth round of this draft that I'm in right now, 15-team league. obviously provide some speed there. And I took Jose Altuva in the sixth round. And Scott said yesterday,
Starting point is 00:43:38 well, maybe those names should be swapped. Maybe Altuva should be the one going in the fourth. And Rosarena is the one that should be going in the sixth round, something like that. So overall it was a good year for him, 20 homers, 20 steals. I noticed he was amazing against lefties. He was just kind of mad against righties. So it's something that is in the back of your mind
Starting point is 00:43:57 with the Tampa Bay raise because, you know, they find ways to platoon guys all over the place. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but if it comes to a point where, like, we're two months into the season and he's just really bad against Ritey's, it's something that actually could happen. We saw it with Austin Meadows this past season
Starting point is 00:44:12 from the other side of the plate. So, Justin, I will let you make the case for Randy Rosarana first. I mean, I don't know what case needs to be made. Yeah, I mean, the raise are the raise. And they do screw around with us every once in a while. I don't know that they're going to do with them. They can't do with everybody. You only have so many bench hitters on your actual MLB.
Starting point is 00:44:30 26-man roster. And dude with 2020, like that's great. And he did it with a good average. It's not like a 2020 with a 220 batting average. And he did it with a, you know, a very good batting average. I still think he has an elite ability to recognize pitches. I do think that 20-solum bases is probably, you know, where he should be. But I think there is more power on that bat.
Starting point is 00:44:56 We saw it in the postseason. So at the end of 2020. and his ability to recognize his pitches out of a pitcher's hand, I think at some point may translate into even more power at some point. So do I think we have to get more to, you know, kind of justify this draft slot or where I've got in my ranks? No, but I think there is more in there. Yeah, no, I would agree with that.
Starting point is 00:45:20 I mean, if he comes close to his projections here, 258, 255 homers, 19 steals, you probably want a little bit better batting average. but I think most people would be all right with getting that out of a Rose Arena. He's one of these launch angle guys too where he hits a lot of ground balls and if he learned how to raise that launch angle
Starting point is 00:45:37 a little bit more than we could see even more power out of him, more than the 20 home runs that we saw this past season. Scott, look, the strikeouts, not great for him. The stackass numbers, not great. But he's kind of like one of these weird players that can just outperform those numbers because he's such a freak athlete, I guess.
Starting point is 00:45:56 Well, maybe. I mean, we obviously don't have a long track record of that. It's kind of a Rosarana kind of has a little bit of a Javier-Bias thing going on where to be what he is, he relies on being an outlier in, like, Babbup, 365 Babbup last year. And while, you know, we've seen Bias do that year after year, and yet I still don't trust it completely. So I'm definitely not trusting of a Rosarena after one full season of that. So, you know, it sounds like Justin's hopeful of some improvements.
Starting point is 00:46:27 even from a Rosarayna, I'm fearful of him taking a step back. And apart from the steals, you know, him having 20 steals last year, it's not a standout in anything else. It's nice to get some power from a steals guy. It's nice to get some runs from a steels guy. That's all nice. But like one of my, one of the things I'm trying to be intentional about in Roto League specifically is not not being intentional about stolen bases.
Starting point is 00:46:55 because like it just felt, I just felt like it put me in so much trouble in everything else. And that's a stat that you don't need that much of it to finish like eighth place in the category. It's not like a true punting of steals if I happen to get, you know, a Bo Bichet in round one or whatever. I'm not going to turn it down because he does so much else too. But I'm not going to elevate somebody who's hurting me in other areas.
Starting point is 00:47:22 You know, it could get power, a lot more power in that area. than you're going to get from Rosarena, a lot more RBI. And so, you know, I'm willing to pass up the 20 steals and take some other outfielders instead. All right. Randy Rosarena's ADP right now is 57.4. He's going just ahead of Nick Castellanos. Someone who could be a true four-category contributor.
Starting point is 00:47:47 We'll see where he winds up in free agency. Eloy Jimenez could be another similar player like that, dropping down a little bit more. Byron Bucson, probably a similar player to a Rosarina. You know, the upside's probably even higher, but of course, a ton of injury risk there with Byron Bucks.
Starting point is 00:48:04 More. Yeah. Yep. All right. Last thing on outfield here, we're not going to debate another player, but Justin, you're wearing the Cedric Mullen's shirt here. And anyone who's listened to you before knows that you were all over Cedric Mullen's last year.
Starting point is 00:48:17 So kudos to you. Someone who had an ADP outside of the top 400, 500, 500, goes 30-30. just a truly spectacular call on your part. Vlad Sedler, someone we've had on this podcast before, does great work. Make sure you follow on Twitter at Roto Gut. He does this year's Christian Yellich every year.
Starting point is 00:48:36 So like we're starting to make, like, let's do this. Let's make the branding right now. Let's make this happen. Do you have any thoughts on who this year's Cedric Mullins could be? I'm getting some crap talk to me by my co-os, Paul's Foric, because I refuse to like really name someone, right? because I was talking with you guys before we started. It's like, this is a once in a lifetime call.
Starting point is 00:48:57 Like, it's, you know, take a guy who's, you know, who started outside like the top 500 picks when we started drafts this time last year, eventually made his way, like right around pick 300 kind of in the main event areas and stuff. Like in my own TGFBI draft, he went undrafted like that, you know, I mean, and that was what early March, right? So. Deeply. Yeah. Yeah. I'm never going to get another call. like this where a guy goes 30 30.
Starting point is 00:49:24 There just aren't guys who produce like that level. And he outperformed what I thought he was going to do. And so people are going to, I know people are going to ask me who's, who's this year of Cedric Mullins? There is no this year's Celtic Mullins. But if I'm going to give you a guy,
Starting point is 00:49:40 you know, I want to identify some of the things that I saw in Cedric Mullins, one namely lineup spot, right? He was leading off at the end of 2020 in what people thought was, going to be a crowded outfield in Baltimore with Austin Hayes and DJ Stewart. But they kept rolling him out there, right? The team had a lot of faith in him. A guy that I, you know, I knew he had speed, but I thought there's a little bit more pop. So if I give you the 22
Starting point is 00:50:09 Cedric Mullins, it's going to be on another crappy team, a guy who's leading off at the end of season, Cole Tucker, who is shortstop eligible in FBC, but in some leagues, he's going to be on got eligibility all over the place. Cole Tucker, could he be? He's a guy I am targeting late in drafts. Like currently, let's see, currently going pick 659 in NFBC.
Starting point is 00:50:38 He's on the pirates, by the way. I know. Like I said, he's on another I'm not telling you. I'm telling the audience because that's not a name. They've probably heard a lot. But no, people weren't talking about Cedric Mullins. So these are the guys. Like, right, he was. off of the Pirates at the end of the year last season,
Starting point is 00:50:55 showing them a little bit of faith for him. He's a former prospect of note. Remember Fabapalooza a few years ago when he came up and everybody threw hundreds of dollars of fab. He's got a little pop. He's got some speed. He's got cool hair. Cole Tucker, baby.
Starting point is 00:51:13 That is this year, Cedric Mullins, though there won't be on. All right. Look, the guy definitely has cool hair. There's no doubt about that. So he's got that going for him. Looking at the minor league numbers, definitely has some really, really big steel seasons there. So the speed is legit.
Starting point is 00:51:27 And I remember when he came up, there was some fanfare, some excitement about him. So in the deepest of leagues, for those playing in NL only, a name to remember there for you. Cole Tucker, Justin, I'm just going to submit my own two names here. Definitely not as deep as Cole Tucker.
Starting point is 00:51:42 Lane Thomas with the Washington Nationals, all over it, leading off of them down a stretch, showed us some power from speed. I think he's going inside the, top 300, so like definitely not that late, but yeah, his 275 is ADP. And then Conor Joe
Starting point is 00:51:59 is the other one. I don't know if the Rockies are going to make other moves, but he was leading off for them and he was performing. So I do like Connor Joe. I don't know how much speed he's like you. That was the name I thought of too. Nice. Both are really good calls.
Starting point is 00:52:13 I mean, you know, these are guys that are going to be undervalued. Late Thomas is getting a little bit of fanfare, but I like the call there too. in the bat in front of Juan Soto's never a bad spot. All right, so I had three starting pitchers to talk about. We got like five minutes left in the podcast. I'm going to choose the one that has the biggest disparity in your rankings.
Starting point is 00:52:32 And he's someone we haven't really talked about much so far here in the off season. And that is Trevor Rogers, who Justin has 22nd in his starting pitcher ranks. Scott has down at 466 at starting pitcher. And it was a really good first full season for Trevor Rogers. 264 ERA, 115 whip. 157 strikeouts over 133. Andings pitched 14% swinging strike rate. I mean, that is an elite mark for Trevor Rogers.
Starting point is 00:53:00 The fastball velo jumped about one mile per hour. Changeup was amazing for him. I think the slider could be a really good pitch. The usage on that pitch kind of fluctuated throughout the course of the season. I remember that it was first month or two. He was using it like 15 to 20% of the time. Then he dialed it back.
Starting point is 00:53:15 So we'll see where he settles in with that pitch ultimately. but, man, Trevor Rogers, when he was healthy and he was going, he was really, really damn good. So, Scott, why so low here on Trevor Rogers? Down at the bottom of the blob. Yeah, I got some pushback for this on Twitter when I first released my top 55 at starting pitchers, what it ended up being. And, you know, I went and looked at the numbers again.
Starting point is 00:53:43 You look at those season numbers, and it's like, wow, that was an amazing rookie season, 264 a or a 10.6k per 9, why would I be so low on that guy? And I worry that maybe I'm my analysis, I'm being a little too granular with my analysis here instead of just accepting the numbers is what they are. But like Trevor Rogers, it was, we saw two very different versions of Trevor Rogers last year.
Starting point is 00:54:10 Through Juney was amazing. First three months, basically an ace. And then the final two months that we saw him, there was an injury in August, so it was July and September. Not so awesome. He had a 376 ERA. The whip was, it was near 1-5. His swinging strike rate went from about 16% to about 11%.
Starting point is 00:54:37 And, you know, obviously there are, he's still building up workload on top of it all. So he didn't leave a good taste in my mouth. He made me second guess what I saw early in the season. He's on a bad team. And I don't know quite what I'm getting from Trevor Rogers. Now, we talked about the blob before at starting pitcher, where in my own rankings, it comes out to number 31 to number 55.
Starting point is 00:55:06 I'm just really not sure what order to rank them. Trevor Rogers is right in the middle there at 46. I'm not going to be able to rank him as high as you have him, Justin, but I could be talked into moving him closer to 30. Let's do that. Yeah, let's do that. We'll talk me into it. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:22 So, okay, so, yes, he did have definitely struggled in July. But you have to wonder, like, how much of those struggles in July had to do with the injury that he ended up missing pretty much all of August for, right? Because when he comes back from the injury in September, even when the Marlins aren't really, you know, they're not competing, he goes. and throws like a three, what, 352 ERA, and has a 10 strikeout performance on one of those five starts in September. He pitches a really, really nice ballpark and a great division in the NL East,
Starting point is 00:55:56 the NL East, where the world champs are. And I think that this is a guy that they're going to let go. If he's healthy, which he showed at the end of the season that he is, right, the Marlins are a team that luts their pitchers pitch. And we've seen it with Alcantara. we've seen it, you know, a little bit with Pablo Lopez. I think we're going to see it with Rogers here, as long as they don't trade him,
Starting point is 00:56:22 because they do think that at some point they're going to trade a starter here for a hitter at some point, because they need to do another Zach Allen for Chisholm kind of deal. So if Rogers isn't the guy, and I'm thinking because he's the lefty, that he likely won't be the guy. They'll try to keep the lefty. It might be like Pablo Lopez instead. that I think Rogers is, yeah, I think he's a top 25 starter this year. A couple counter points. All right.
Starting point is 00:56:51 You pointed out he had a 352 ERA in September. Relative to his 264 season ERA, that's still way high. I still don't know that that, I don't know that I view that as a plus and Trevor Rogers. It's not bad, though. I mean, it's fine. It's fine. Yeah. 26th starting pitcher off the board is also fine.
Starting point is 00:57:14 The other thing is that you're saying you think the Marlins are going to let him go. He didn't go six innings in any of his last 11 starts. And a lot of those were less than five innings as well. So like there's that issue too. So, you know, early in the season when he was healthy, when he was rolling, they let him go. Yeah. You know, I mean, he was going six, seven innings. Because that's what they do as an organization.
Starting point is 00:57:39 This is an organization that clearly subscribes to the bullets theory, right? They want to get those bullets. They know that guys only have so many bullets in their arm. They're going to let them throw it, let them go deep in the games. This is not an organization that babies, they're starting pitchers. And so, you know, even when like Sixtho, before Sixtho got hurt, like they were let him go six, seven innings into games. They ended up being the wrong decision, but they haven't changed what they've done.
Starting point is 00:58:07 And, you know, guys like Alcantara, guys like Pablo Lopez have shown that. Yeah, I agree with you that I think, partially why he wasn't why he wasn't going deeper into starts later in the season. A, obviously he wasn't as efficient. And B, I thought that he was starting to wear down a little bit. So I don't remember exactly
Starting point is 00:58:26 I know he was dealing with like a personal issue that he was away from the team for some time. There was a family issue as well that made a miss time. Yeah, so that was part of it. I think if you just look at the projections at face value right now from Steamer, 343 ERA, 1-200-WIP, over 10-Ks per 9,
Starting point is 00:58:41 over the course of 154 innings, That's a really good starting pitch. Like, that's probably closer to a top 30 starting pitcher. I don't know about that. I don't know about that. I see those numbers and have a very different reaction to them. Kind of an average fantasy area mid-threes. Kind of a below-average fantasy whip there, you said, 1.2.
Starting point is 00:59:03 That's kind of average. Over less than, you know, 150 in. Over 150 innings is not like a big workload. So, I don't know. to me that's a pretty middling pitcher maybe middling is is downgrading it like so it it makes up a fine number three or number four starter in fantasy which is how I haven't ranked I just ran just real quickly through the auction calculator over at fan graphs the steamer projections and Rogers comes out as the number 20th starting pitcher in terms of dollar values based on those
Starting point is 00:59:39 projections. Okay. So I think maybe this is a situation in which you saw such amazing eliteness from him in the first half. And you're going like, I want that.
Starting point is 00:59:52 That's what I should be getting. And, you know, what he did still puts him up as like a top 30 start. Why do you have Tyler Malley? Because it sounds like you're, you're pitching Tyler Malley stats at me. I do like Tyler Malley. Let's see.
Starting point is 01:00:08 I've got, Let's see. Mali, I have 34th. Okay. All right. So, I don't know. If we split the difference and we put Trevor Rogers
Starting point is 01:00:16 somewhere in the middle there, he probably would come out right around starting pitcher 34th. So agree to disagree. But I think I'm closer to Justin. Just because I have Trevor Rogers in the Dynasty League, the Scott White Dynasty League,
Starting point is 01:00:29 and I kind of just need him to be awesome. So I'm rooting for him. I hope he is awesome. Let's go. We are going to wrap there. Again, Justin Mason. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at Justin Mason FW.
Starting point is 01:00:39 FB, co-owner of Friends with Fantasy Benefits, creator of the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. You can listen to him over on the Sleeper and the Bus Podcast. Justin, thank you for coming on. And I also want to thank your wife for allowing you to be here. Of course. My wife, you know, I'll pay for this later, but she loves you guys.
Starting point is 01:00:57 She appreciates you guys let me come on. Yes. Thank you once again. All right. So we are going to wrap there for Scott and Justin. I am Frank. Thank you for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball the day. This will be our last podcast of the week. We will be back again next Tuesday. Bye-bye.

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