Fantasy Baseball Today - Early 2024 Outfield Rankings & Jarred Kelenic to the Braves! (12/5 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 5, 2023

It's a slow start to the Winter Meetings but let's jump into the top-10 outfield rankings heading into 2024 (3:10). ... Is Scott too high on Mike Trout (9:07)? Will Michael Harris bat higher in the lineup? ... Scott is excited about Nolan Jones and Jazz Chisholm can't stay healthy (20:12). ... The Braves traded for Jarred Kelenic on Sunday (29:20). ... Jackson Chourio signed an eight-year deal and his ADP is skyrocketing (36:18). ... News (39:28): Mookie Betts will play second base in 2024. ... Let's get back into our outfield rankings and focus on Seiya Suzuki (48:35). ... What do we have on Evan Carter, Jordan Walker and Jorge Soler (52:38)? ... We wrap up with the rest of Scott's top-36 outfielders (1:00:05). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hey there, welcome into fantasy baseball today on Tuesday, December 5th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White.

Today on the show, we're taking an early look at Scott's 24 outfield rankings, try and get through the top 36 or so, and we'll focus on the names that we didn't get to talk about on our Outfield Recap podcast last week. Also, those brave, Scotty, they are staying busy. They made another trade. This time for Jared Kelnick, really out of nowhere, kind of a surprise. We'll talk about that a little bit later on. And Brewer's top prospect, Jack Centuryio. We heard the rumors last week that he could be signing an extension, and he does exactly that, signed an eight-year extension, the biggest contract for a player yet to make his major league debut, and his ADP is already skyrocketing. We'll talk about all of that.

First day of the winter meeting, Scott, in the books, and frankly, we thought we'd be here with a bunch of stuff to talk about, and not much. Not much going on. What's up, man? Nope, not yet. Not yet. So, I don't know, could be busy, extra busy the next couple days. everybody just getting their ducks in a row right now, or it could be one of those very quiet winter meetings, which happened from time to time. It just feels like everybody's waiting on Otani and then it's going to be domino effect after that.

But who knows? We don't know if Otani will for sure sign this week during the winter meetings or shortly thereafter, but hopefully soon so we can start to get some player movement. Anyway, let's get into these outfield rankings. Scott, I mentioned we'll try and get through the top 36 or so. and these rankings are for 5 by 5 Roto leagues. I'll point out some notable changes in head-to-head points leagues as we go along.

But the top five, no surprise here, Ronald de Cunia, Julio Rodriguez, Corbyn Carroll, Mookiee Bets, and Kyle Tucker. Mookie Bets does move up to your number two ranked outfielder in head-to-head points leagues. Obviously great in both formats, but 4.3 fantasy points per game was second at the position for Mookie Bets behind only Ronald de Cunia. no surprise of the top five players that I just mentioned, they are all going in the top seven picks in early ADP.

So pretty straightforward there, right? Anything else to add? No, we talked about those guys a lot on the last podcast where we were recapping the 2023 season. And like I said then, Acuna Rodriguez, Julio Rodriguez, I should clarify, Acuna, Julio Rodriguez, Corbyn Carol, are all top four picks for me.

Only Bobby Witt is missing from that group. Obviously, he's a shortstop. And then Mookiee Betts, who is my number four outfielder, would be number five, I think, most of the time when I'm drafting. And then there's Freddie Freeman number six, and then there's Kyle Tucker seven. So, yeah, the top five in my outfield rankings

are the top seven for me, at least in five-by-five scoring, standard roto leagues and the like. and you can hear much more about them on that last podcast. All right, so let's jump into six through 10 in the 2024 outfield rankings. Fernando Tatis at number six, followed by Aaron Judge at seven. Yordon Alvarez is eighth, Juan Soto is ninth, and Luis Robert is your 10th ranked outfielder. Worth mentioning specifically three names in this group's got Aaron Judge Alvarez Soto.

They all move up in your head to have points rankings. judges at number three, Alvarez at number four. Soto is up to your number seven outfielder in that format because while those guys don't steal many bases, they have great plate discipline, lots of walks and lots of home runs, which obviously does help in that format. It's easy to see why if you just look at the point per game averages. So Julio Rodriguez, like I said, my number three overall player for Roto leagues next year, 3.59 head-to-head points per game. That's compared to 3.84 points per game for Aaron Judge last year,

3.94 points per game for Jordan. Alvarez next year. There is still the injury risk working against them. You do still have to, you still have to safeguard against that, whatever that means. But I think clearly there is more upside from the judge and Alvarez types in the points format than from like Julio Rodriguez. I mean, there's a chance Julio Rodriguez gets better, yes,

but he was nearly, he came pretty close to a 40-40 season this past year, or at least a 35-35 season. And he was still notably behind them and had dead points per game. There's a plate discipline, there's a plate discipline disparity there that hurts in that format,

but more than anything, it's just stolen bases don't count for anything separate from anything else a player does. While in Roto leagues, they're obviously their own category, and you have to put more emphasis on them because of that. A massive stolen base total can still add to add a lot of points to a player's points league outcome. But clearly in the case of Julio Rodriguez,

with the plate discipline downsides, not enough to make up for what judge and Alvarez are capable of doing power-wise. And Scotty was dropping some hot fire on Juan Soto splits last week as well, where if he gets moved out of San Diego, there's a chance that he does see a boost in value because he has not hit well in Petco Park at all. So again, you can go back and listen to that Outfield Recap podcast,

but sounds like a Soto move is pretty much a foregone conclusion. Where it's going to be, that still remains to be seen. Is it going to be the Yankees, the Blue Jays, maybe the Mariners? I saw a report from John Heyman that there's at least five teams that have made an offer for Juan Soto. So I would guess that happens pretty soon as well, hopefully this month.

Yeah, though I did see a report. I think the Padres GM said there's a chance he could, he is shopping him, but there's a chance he could still begin the year as the Padres left fielder. Maybe he just has to say that. But I know I saw an offer. I don't know how official this is.

I don't know that any reporter could get exactly what one team is offering another, but there was an offer rumored to be with the Yankees that the Yankees were balking at. It didn't look. Like the Padres were asking for that much. It was seven players, I guess, but only like Drew Thorpe and Michael King were the only players of real significance. I mean, Michael King, Scott, come on.

You can't give that guy up for one. What are we talking about here? So if those are the kind of low-ball offers the Padres are getting these, if the Yankees are balking at that offer, then there is a chance. Look, I think the Padres are still aiming to be competitive next year. That's why they're going after somebody like Michael King in a trade. And so I do think there's a chance he sticks with the Padres.

I don't know that going to the Blue Jays would be a better outcome because that's Roger Center has become a pretty tough place for left-handers to hit. But Yankee Stadium would be a huge improvement, of course. Yep. And I saw some whispers about the Blue Jays, apparently giving Manoa up in a potential Wansoto deal. I'm sure it would be more than Alec Mino, but maybe a change of scenery is something that could work for him.

Again, this is pure speculation. So let's not waste any more time. We'll wait until something like that actually happens. Number 11 through 15 in your outfail rankings. We have Mike Trout, followed by Cody Bellinger, Adolice Garcia, Michael Harris, and Randy Arosa Rana. Two names in this group, Scott, that we have not talked about yet.

That includes Mike Trout and Michael Harris. Let's start up top with Mike Trout here, who hit 263. He had 18 home runs and 858 OPS. That was across 82 games. He missed a large portion of the season due to a fractured hamate bone, tried to return too soon,

turned out that he re-injured it. Mike Trout has not played more than 119 games in a season since 2019. We also have some things that are trending the wrong way, 263 batting average and an 858 OPS, both his lowest marks since his 2011 rookie season. Obviously, still hits the ball extremely hard, but strikeouts are up and some of these numbers are kind of trending down, hasn't been able to stay healthy, one year older, 32 years old. I get what you have Mike Trout ranked as high scot, but early ADP actually thinks he should be

even lower. What do you think? I know. I know. I guess that. I'm going to be a Mike Trout Optimist here. I'm breaking out my new Mike Trout T-shirt for the occasion. Brand new. Hasn't even been washed yet. Does that, does that, does that, does that, does that, itke you out? Like, dude, you have to wash a shirt before you wear it?

Or is it just like, I'll wear it off the rack. Take my chances. I, like, I see both sides of it. I don't think I necessarily have to wash a shirt before I wear it, though. Yeah, I don't know, gross to some people out. I've gone back and forth with it over the years. Lately, I'm more on, and every shirt I buy has a limited number of washes in it, so I want to get as many wares out of it as I can.

There you go. And I'll risk the skin condition or whatever that has never happened before because of this in my life. Right. But plus, I mean, come on, man. The shirt never looks crisper than when you first buy it, you know? Looks amazing for those watching us on YouTube. Yes. Anywho, it's interesting that I've become, you know, early indications are that I'm the high guy on Trout because I've been pretty harsh with him in recent years, I feel like he's averaged 79 games over the last three years. I know you already gave another statistic to point out his durability issues, but that's, that's another glaring one there.

in addition to his strikeout rate going up, his zone contact rate, which is a number I've been citing more and more lately. Hang on, I don't have this page pulled up. I thought I did. His zone contact rate is pretty awful. Yeah, I have it here on the rundown, Scott. It's 82% or less three years in a row, which is below league average.

And I think it was below 80% just this past year, which is among the way. worst in baseball, yes. So, he's not, you can't think of Mike Trout as an asset in batting average anymore. And of course,

it's been years since he's been an asset for stolen bases, even though he still runs pretty fast. Altogether, it looks like a player who is legitimately declining, but he's declining from such a high point. You know,

like he's still an elite power hitter. He's still, he's still going to be a three category stuff. I would say when he's healthy. And you get past Mike Trout in my rankings. So the last player I have ahead of him is Louise Robert. Okay.

Before that Juan Soto. So you got that top nine ending with Juan Soto that are basically obvious first or second rounders. Then you got Luis Robert there. And then I have Mike Trout. But like question marks really begin there with Mike Trout, if not with Luis Robert, who himself has some durability issues in his past.

But, you know, whether you're talking Mike Trout or Cody Bellinger or Michael Harris or a lot of these guys we talked about in the last podcast, Randy a Roserana has his own issues. Kyle Schwerber, obviously, a player of extremes. Christian Yelich, a lot of dirt. Like, who is the obvious number 11 there? I think is Mike Trout because what's the lowest. we've ever drafted him. Round three? It'll obviously be next year. That's the lowest we've ever drafted him.

But as clear as his decline is, it's the sort of decline that takes him from a first rounder to a third rounder in my estimation rather than making him somebody who deserves to be buried in the rankings. At a thin position, you know, you have to consider the upside he brings to the table versus what those other players

who you could rank there instead bring. Yeah. And as we say with most, injury prone players, especially if you play in a points league format where on CBS, it's, you only start three outfielders, it's shallower format, the rosters are smaller, you could take more chances on injury prone players because the replacement value is better. So in a format like that, I think that's fine. On the NFBC where most leagues are five outfielders, the replacement value not nearly as good, and he doesn't run, I think that's probably what pushes him down a little bit. I mentioned Scott has Mike Trout as his 11th ranked outfielder.

Early ADP has Mike Trout at outfielder number 17. ADP is 67. So that would push him down to the sixth round of a 12 team league. Zone contact rate for Mike Trout, by the way, it was below 80% in both 2021 and 2022. Actually went up a little bit to 82% this past year, which still isn't great, as you pointed out. But it's not as much of an eyebrow razor.

But you know, early in his career, he was up like 87, 89, 90%, which is really, really good. So that's a part of Trout's skill set. You know, you have to dig pretty deep for it, obviously. But that's diminished in a significant way. Yep. And I guess to answer your question, who should be the 11th ranked outfieler? In a roto league, I think I would probably take Randy a Rosa Raina there,

but I feel like I'm probably the a rose arena optimist, too, just based on how we were talking on our previous podcast, I like drafting him in a Roto league. I think he's fine. He's another guy that could be traded. We'll see what happens with him in the offseason. The other name we haven't talked about yet is Michael Harris, your 14th ranked outfielder.

He finished 64th overall in Roto this past season. He turns 23 in March, so technically not even really in his prime yet. You look at his 2022 and 2023, nearly identical seasons. He hit 293 this year with 18 homers, 76 run scored, and 20 stolen bases. he actually improved really in all the places that I was worried about Michael Harris got, which is we're talking about the strikeout rate coming down, the ground ball rate coming down,

improvement against left-handed pitching. I mean, these were all things I was worried about last year. He improved all of them. Now, we know Michael Harris got off to a really, really slow start. The first two months were dreadful. He was awesome from June 1st on. The big problem with him is a lack of volume. 88 of his games came from batting ninth in the Braves lineup

because they're stacked, 539 plate appearance appearances ranked 40th among outfielders. So unless that improves, which I think it could. I mean, early roster resource has some batting like sixth in the Braves lineup. That would obviously help. There is still kind of a volume problem here. But man, all the improvements that he made, couple with the age, the lineup, I do think that there is a lot to like here about Michael Harris.

Well, he would be, I think, the obvious number of level. guy based on what his percentages have looked like. After that ridiculously bad start he got off to in his sophomore season when it was like, oh man, we totally missed on this guy. His final line, like his final numbers ended up being close to identical to what he put up as a rookie. The percentages were a little worse, but the totals were very similar, and the percentages were similar enough, close enough. So we should go into 2024 with the same enthusiasm we had going into 2023 when we rank Tim as like a third rounder, right?

But I am less optimistic he's going to move up in the lineup, actually. And maybe this is maybe this is because I follow the Braves closer than I follow any other team. maybe I followed them too closely to have an objective view on this, but they seem to like him hitting 9th. And they don't really need him to hit higher because they have so many other great hitters. They seem to like him hitting 9th to put a good hitter ahead of Ronald de Kuna, who obviously they're not taking out of the leadoff spot.

And Harris, when he's forced to hit higher in the lineup, he doesn't really, it hasn't gone well so far, which isn't to say like he can't hit higher the ninth. Obviously he could, but he's not giving the Braves. He so far hasn't given the Braves reason to say, okay, yeah, the lineup looks better with him hitting higher. He, 88 of his appearances this past year came in the nine hole. So as good as the Braves lineup is,

batting that low in any lineup is going to cost you so many opportunities it limits his run and RBI potential to a degree that's hard to overcome. I mean, as good as he was on a percentage basis, 2.82 had to head points per game this past year. 2.82, he is the highest ranked player for me who's below three. And he's pretty far below three at 2.82. 2.82, to put it in perspective, is less than Nick Castiano's. It's less than Masataka Yoshida. it's not very good.

It's not very good. And so by ranking him as high as they do, I'm giving him, it seems kind of hopeful to me, actually. And I am giving his points league rankings, and I imagine with the high batting average and the stolen base contributions, Harris is a little more valuable in Roto,

but those runs in RBI count for a lot and he's not delivering them in the nine hole. Yeah, that's the biggest drawback now. I guess we'll have to wait until spring train, to either see reports or lineups and find out what they're thinking about where they want to bat Michael Harris, but I mean, for the reasons you mentioned,

they might leave him batting ninth, which obviously would not be great for his value in 2024. 16 through 20 in the outfield rankings for next season, we have Kyle Schwabber, followed by Christian Yelich, Nolan Jones, Josh Lowe, and Jazz Chisham.

Two names here that we have yet to talk about. We did talk about them on FBT and 5, and there was one player in particular that Scott was raving about. So excited to try and draft this season, that is Nolan Jones. Your 18th ranked outfielder who just went 20-20, 20 homers, 20 steals, and he was one of 19 players to do that in just 106 games. Incredibly impressive. Obviously, now playing in Colorado with Corr's Field.

The batted ball data looks pretty solid. I mean, the barrel rate in particular 94th percentile for Nolan Jones was great. was spectacular against lefties. The one drawbacks got is obviously the strikeout rate. You worry about, okay, maybe can that rear its ugly head. But man, just having Colorado to fall back on, the power and the speed, former top prospect, I get it. I get it.

The problem is you kind of got to pay the price. You got to pay the price to get him. The early ADP is 59 for Nolan Jones. Yeah, deservedly. And I go back to, okay, outfield is far and away the weakest position. it's top 24, I think, is weaker than any infield positions top 12. And that's really saying something because, you know, outfield the top 36 should compare to a top 12 at the end field positions, right?

And I'm saying the top 24 isn't even as good as any infield positions. So you do have to roll the dice a little more to get a quality option there. But there's so much to like here for Nolan Jones. Nolan Jones seems like the Corsefield success story that we're always trying to project on to players, and then they so often don't deliver on it. And I think the reason for that is Nolan Jones is really talented. He's a top prospect in the Guardian system for a long time and had some strikeout issues, had some defensive positioning issues that prevented him from breaking through with them. And so the Rockies landed Nolan Jones for cheap. Still has the strikeout issues,

but Coorsfield helps to mask those because it's, what Coorsfield excels that more than anything, at least on the hitting side, what it does for hitters more than anything is raise their babb, improve because it's such an expansive outfield to keep it from being too much of a home run park, that it's more likely, balls are going to drop in much more likely.

And so that helps give Nolan Jones a good batting average. I mean, he hit, what do he hit? He hit $2.97. I mean, obviously, we don't, we're not counting on him hitting $297 necessarily by ranking him that high. If he hits $2.60, $2.70, that, that'll be great for the power and speed he offers. And, and Coors Field, even with the high strikeout rate, makes it much more likely that Nolan Jones will do that, as we just saw.

he hits the ball incredibly hard. That power is not, there's nothing phony about that power for Nolan Jones. 78th percentile sprint speed obviously showed he's willing to take advantage of the new base running rules and be aggressive on the base path. So I don't see a lot of reason for concern here with Nolan Jones other than just, okay, well, we haven't seen him do it over a full season. Yeah.

That's, to me, that's not reasoned enough to pass over that kind of upside at this position. within the top 60. I know you like Nolan Jones, Scott. It sounds like you also like Josh Lowe. I am here to pressure your rankings. I think that you should move in Roto Leagues, Nolan Jones and Josh Lowe up ahead of Kyle Swarber and Christian Yelich.

Make the swap, Scotty. It's a possibility. Yeah. I could do that. I'm tempted to do that. I may do that. You're not going to pressure me to do it today. Their ADP is, obviously ADP right now is minimal and flawed and all of that.

But it's the best we have. And it's not that close, right? Actually, Schwerber's behind them in ADP. Yeah. Nolan Jones is the 15th ranked outfielder at pick 59. Josh Lowe is 19th at pick 77. Kyle Schwerber is 20th at pick 88. Majority of these drafts are 5 by 5 Roto League.

I've talked on the last podcast, I think, about how Schwerber is a difficult fit in Roto leagues because batting average is something you really need to get squared away early in drafts when you'd have to invest in him on the fairly early side. And we have ever reason to believe he's going to be a detriment in that category. And yet he might lead the majors in high. home runs. So it makes it hard to know what to do with him. And maybe I, yeah, I may end up dropping

him behind them. It's just, it's difficult to, difficult to get past that he's Kyle Schwerber and that those other guys are Josh Lowe and Nolan Jones, you know. Yeah. No, I get it. Your 20th ranked outfielder, a name we have not talked about yet is Jazz Chisholm, who made his transition to the outfield. He actually turned out to play pretty well defensively there. Hit 250 with 19 homers, 22 steals in just 97 games played, has yet to play more than 124 games in a major league season

because of injuries. Jazz went on the IL this past season with turf toe and then a strained left oblique. And after the season, actually underwent surgery to repair the turf toe in mid-October. And he's out for the next 12 weeks. He can't start running until it sounds like mid-to-late no, January, which I think he should be fine for spring training,

but it was a stress fracture in his lower back and a right knee meniscus surgery in 2022. The number of pretty sizable injuries and now surgeries that Jazzism has had, I'm still very skeptical that he could play a full season until I see him do it, Scott. So I'm just, I'm not going to expect it. Maybe I'll expect 120, 130 games. but until he plays more than that, that's what I'm going to expect. Welcome to my side, Frank. That's the argument I was making last year.

And I love Jazz. I love the player, but it just, it is what it is. Well, did his 162 game pace last year's 31 homers, 36 steals? There you go. So that's, that says it all. That, that, that's why you should love Jazz Chisholm. But over the last four seasons, he's played only 55% of his team's games. And yeah, I'm with you.

Look, it changed for Luis Robert, whose injury history was pretty ick before this past year. And there will be a year where Jad's Chisholm stays healthy for 140, 145 games, something like that. And it'll be a great year. But until then, I think we have to treat him like a second tier. Outfielder, worth mentioning also at this point, he's no longer eligible at second base, just outfield.

at least to begin next year. I don't think there are any plans to move back to the infield. So probably all of next year. Although they do have a new front office, a new regime there. Same coaching staff, but... It's possible. They do have a new head of baseball operation. So something could happen.

But as of now, we haven't heard anything like that. So I would say assume the outfield once again for Jazz Chisholm. Let's take our first break when we return. We'll get into some of that news and notes. Jared Kellnick trades to the Braves. And then we will get back. into the rankings and we'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's talk some news and notes. Scotty, your Atlanta Brave. Stayed busy

because on late Sunday night, we get the word that they acquired Jared Kellnick, Marco Gonzalez, and Evan White for two pitchers, Jackson Cowar, who they recently acquired from the Royals and Prospect Cole Young, who is 20 years old. He throws very hard. Sounds like he has some pretty big upside, but he also has yet to pitch in the minors as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Very clearly here, Scott, the Braves take on some bad money for the chance to develop a former top prospect in Jared Kelnick, who obviously has had his struggles.

He's had some, I think, maturity issues off the field as well. But, you know, this past year, he hit 253, 11 homers, 13 steals. A lot of that came in the first month of the season where from May 1st on really kind of looked like the bad Jared Kelnick again. But there were some improvements. And there's some notable things. He hits the ball hard still, made some improvements against left-handed pitching this past season.

So I understand why they would take this chance. And look, the Braves have done a great job developing hitting talent, right? So look, if there's any thing that's going to do it, it's going to be the Braves. I don't know that it's going to happen, but there's a chance. Yeah, I mean, it kind of reminds me, honestly, a little of Nolan Jones. If you look at Jared Kalnick's profile compared to Nolan Jones, And obviously, they both strike out about 30% of the time. Obviously, Nolan Jones, that change of scenery, it turned him into the stud.

It once seemed like he could be as minor leaguer. And maybe the Braves can do that for Jared Kellnick. Obviously, he's not going to course field, but he has a lot of support in that lineup, best lineup in baseball. There is no pressure on him to perform at all, regardless of what Jared Kellnick does next year, the Braves are probably going to have one of the two or three best offenses baseball. So a very different situation from Seattle,

where they were really depending on his bat to come through for them. Like you said, the strikeout rate was still high for Kelnick, but the production was better, and specifically he improved in two key areas that are worth mentioning here. He was no longer just an automatic out against sliders and no longer just an automatic out against left-handers. And I think those are two notable improvements. Kevin Siteser, longtime Braves hitting coach,

has had success with high-strikeout guys before Austin Riley when he first came up and was able to help him take that next step. So maybe he could do that for Jared Telnick. I know Cameron Maybin, former Major League outfielder, was singing Kevin. Siteser's praises and what he thinks he can do for Jared Kelnick. He was talking about that on Twitter. So yeah, I mean, look, 24 years old, there's still a chance. Kellnick can become something in fantasy. And I think this trade, just the change of scenery aspect of it, will make him somebody people consider late in five outfielder leagues again.

For what it's worth, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos said this kind of ends the Braves left field search. It sounded like it could be a platoon between Kellnick and Von Grissom, provided the Braves don't trade Von Grissom. But, like, Kellnick will get plenty of abats with the Braves. And, you know, we'll see if this is enough to help him capitalize on that potential. My honest impression, probably not. It seems like the odds are against it. I'm looking at, okay, so the Braves,

took on, there was some money to offset it. It basically comes out. They're taking on $16 to $17 million in salary this year and like $12 million in future years. So they're taking on a lot of money for this gamble on Kelnik. They must be pretty optimistic. To me, there are better ways to spend that money than trying to fix Kelnik. But if it works out, then obviously it'll be a brilliant move. Yeah. And you know exactly what the Atlanta Braves needs got is more offense, right? I mean, rumors about them trying to go after Otani right now, too. Like, what is going on, man?

Offense is still really amazing. And might be better now with Jared Kellenick. The early ADP is right around 229 as the 50th outfielder off the board for Jared Kelnik. He's going just behind names like Christopher Morel, Stephen Kwan, Taylor Ward. Does that sound about right, Scott? Do you see yourself maybe boosting Kelleck up a little bit with this move? What do you think? where is he among outfielders 50th outfielder just behind morel

Steven Kwan Taylor Ward yeah because I had him around those same outfielders but I think the number was only I have him 63rd so I don't know who I have higher in my outfield rankings that's not represented early ADP but it just relative to those other names you mentioned I have Kelnick in about the same spot and I thought I would move him up and I just couldn't justify it I have them behind guys like Chris Bryant, Jeff McNeil, Garrett Mitchell. A lot of it's a playing time concern.

Like if he's only playing against right-handers, if he's batting low in the lineup, you know, most of those guys are going to play more, at least on a per-game basis. I think I like Kelnick more than those names you mentioned. Maybe not Mitchell. Mitchell is still pretty interesting to me. but Chris Bryant can't stay on the field.

Jeff McNeil, there's next to no upside there. So, yeah, I think I would take Kellnick over those two, but him versus Mitchell is pretty close. Yeah. Yeah, that's probably the right range. Sounds like another move could be coming for the Mariners, by the way. Obviously, they're clearing out this money.

They've been linked to Isok Paratus this past weekend. It sounds like the Razor shopping him. Maybe Soto, a Rosarina. I think all kind of names to watch here on the Mariners radar. So yeah, I don't know that that's where I want to see Esauk Perrida's go. Yeah. He has one like his entire skill set is dependent on him pulling the ball over the left field fence. I do wonder how Tropicana compares to what is it now, T-Mobile Park, I guess.

Yeah. So for right-handed power specifically over the past three years, they're basically even. even. Tropican is 17th in Park Factors and Seattle is 19th. Be great if Paredes went to Houston. That would be the dream. That would be great. Let's talk about Jackson Churio, who has officially signed the largest extension for a player yet to debut, eight years, $82 million, with the incentives that could max out at $140 million

over the next 10 years. This past season, as a 19-year-old, I will remind you, in the minors, Churio hit 282 with 22 homers, 44 steals in 805 OPS, and Brewer's GM Matt Arnold said Monday that Chorio will have a chance to make the team's opening day roster. And I looked at there have been three drafts done over at the NFBC, Scott, since the extension was announced on Thursday of last week.

Churio's ADP is up to 142 as the 30th outfielder off the board. And in the 68 drafts before Thursday, his ADP was 240. So things could change, but it looks like a 100 spot jump in ADP for Jack Centurio, which that might just be the norm now, inside the top 150.

I moved him up even more in my rankings. Oh, spicy. I moved him up to 21st. Wow. The 21st outfielder in Roto leagues, 24th in points leagues. Wow. So just a little ahead of Evan Carter

in Roto League's a little behind, Evan Carter in Points Leagues where obviously Evan Carter walks so much and that makes bigger difference in that points format. I mean, this is a transcendent talent,

like consensus top five prospect even though he spent, he was a teenager, he's been a teenager every game he's played in the minors so far. The power speed is pretty close to top of the scale. And what really stood

stood out for me with Jackson Chorio last year. Because prior to last year, he was high in all the prospect rankings, and I was a little hesitant to go to endorse Jackson Chorio that hard. But last year, even though he was reaching the upper miners for the first time, actually spent most of the year at AA, he cut his strikeout rate from 26.9% in 2022 at those lower levels.

You know, it's a little scary, 26.9 at the lower levels. 17.8% last year, much, much, much better. And like that leap to double A, you're seeing so many more off-speed pitches, you're seeing so many more breaking balls. Like it's, it ruins a lot of young hitters. And Jack Centurio dramatically improved his contact rate.

And so I think, obviously there's no telling how he's going to perform in the majors at age 20. It's been a difficult, more difficult leap in recent years, I feel like than prior to that. We saw Jordan Walker struggle with it. No guarantees, obviously, but it's a weak position.

Jackson Chorio has so much upside. And I think this contract makes it basically a foregone conclusion. He makes the opening day roster unless he just falls flat on his face in spring training. All right. Lots of optimism there on Jackson Churio. Scott's 21st ranked outfielder. And we'll get into that next group in just a little bit. According to Dodgers manager, Dave Roberts,

Mookie Betts will be the team's everyday second baseman in 2020. which I don't think change as much for this season, Scott. Betts has outfield and second base eligibility. And he just misses out on shortstop, right? He doesn't have shortstop? Doesn't have shortstop. Gotcha. But I guess if you're looking at this from a dynasty perspective,

it just kind of sounds like Mookie Betz is a second basement now, moving forward. Yeah. You know, the Dodgers are a team that likes to change up their lineup a lot from day to day. So I don't I kind of read every day Second Baseman as primary second baseman He will probably get Like he will get the majority of starts at second base

He will spend most of his time at second base Will he never play to outfield again? I kind of doubt that I imagine he'll still retain outfield eligibility From year to year That's just kind of a hunch Based on the way the Dodgers handle these things And so I wouldn't

I wouldn't rule that out in dynasty leagues. And you'd rather him, like the way outfield looks like right now, you'd rather him have that outfield eligibility than just be second base. Yeah. But it is an interesting development. Yeah, for sure. Korean outfielder, Junghu Lee, was officially posted on Monday. He's 25 years old and played seven seasons in the KBO where he hit 340 with an 898 OPS.

Seems like very modest power and speed. the numbers comparatively to Hassan Kim, who recently came over from the KBO, not nearly as good as Hassan Kim's numbers. And it took Kim a year under his belt and then kind of broke out this year. So I think he's a name that we're going to need to know, Jung-Hu-Lee for fantasy,

but I'm not sure he's going to just kind of hit the ground running right away. It might take some time for him, which obviously is understandable. The A's could apparently use Mason Miller as a closer in 2024, GM, David Forst mentioned using Miller out of the bullpen to start 2024, citing prior health issues, which makes a lot of sense, God. I mean, Miller throws 100 miles per hour, hasn't really thrown many innings in the minors, dealt with kind of a forearm elbow thing this past season.

And if he's a closer, not that the A's are going to win many games, but he might be really valuable for fantasy. Yeah, it's one of those things where it may, it, If it does come to pass that Mason Miller stops starting and becomes a closer, it ensures he will have fantasy value. But the ultimate fantasy impact, like the upside for fantasy, is less than if he was developed as a full-time starter who actually could take on a reasonable workload if that was even possible. So it's kind of a good news, bad news scenario. You know, somebody was going to close for the A, somebody was going to compile saves for them, whether it was Mason Miller or not. So the fact that Mason Miller is doing it, I think removes a potentially interesting starter from the mix

rather than doing us any favors at relief pitcher. Nick Martinez agreed to a two-year $26 million deal with the Reds last Thursday, and apparently he'll come to spring training in competition for a starting role. And Nick Martinez returned to the majors last year in 2022, and he's succeeded in both roles as a reliever, a starter. I don't think he's a name that we need to know necessarily for like shallow or mixed leagues, but he could turn into a streamer or maybe a two-star pitcher. If he is indeed a starter again, that's Dick Martinez to the Cincinnati Reds.

Wade Miley has signed a one year $7 million deal to return to the Brewers and while he does not get any strikeouts at all, Scott. Wade Miley has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021. He has a 326 ERA and a 124 whip during that span. when he pitches, he's actually been valuable. Yeah, as kind of a streamer type, it tends not to go deep into games and it's not going to give you strikeouts, as he said.

So, I don't know, I can't get that excited about Wade Miley, but I'm sure there will be leagues where there will be points, there will be times next season when he's rostered in some of my leagues. Jeff McNeil is expected to see the bulk of his playing time at second base in 2024. New president of baseball operations, David Stearns indicated that he expect the team's starting third baseman to come from a group of

Ronnie Maricio, Brett Beatty, and Mark Vientos. Now, for whoever does not win that competition, Scott, I am not exactly sure what will happen. Yeah, that's interesting. It might. So in our first rotomach draft a couple weeks ago, I took Ronnie Maricio pretty late as my starting middle infielder

might be harder to justify that if that's the case. I do think Brett Beatty's the more talented player, but Maricio showed us a lot in his brief time in the majors next year. Like, I don't know why they do this if they're in a development stage right now, they got a chasm in left field.

Obviously, the off-season's over. Maybe they fill it some other way. There's been some speculation Brett Beatty's ultimately going to wind up in left field. So maybe that's something that that begins to take effect in spring training. And okay, so it's true. McNeil is the second basement, but that just means badies and left and Mauricio's a third.

It's a big speculation though right now if you're having a draft right now, which you probably shouldn't. Eric Fetty, remember the name, former starting pitcher for the Nationals. He is currently choosing between signing with the Mets and the White Sox. He went to the KBO this past year. and won the MVP there. He went 20 and 6 with a 2.0 ERA and a 0.95 whip, and he hopes to become the next Merrill Kelly who enjoyed success after returning to the majors from Korea.

So, and I was listening to, I think it was the Rotowire podcast with Tim McLeod, who studies Korea and Japan and players that are coming over from there very closely. And he said that Eric Fetty made a bunch of changes even before he went to the KBO. So made tangible changes, went there, dominated, and is now coming back. Just a name.

I think we need to know probably in that streaming discussion as well, Eric Fetty. Ken Waldichuk was diagnosed with a left UCL sprain and flexor strain back in October. He's opted for conservative treatment rather than Tommy John surgery for now. The latest rumors from the winter meetings, the teams were mostly hearing linked to Shohei Otani include the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Cubs, Angels, Braves, and the Giants. We heard over the weekend that the Padres wanted up to six players from the Yankees for Juan Soto. Scott mentioned this earlier. Sounds like Michael King and top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe were both involved in those talks. The pirates are showing interest in Jack Flaherty and the Cardinals are listening to offers on Tyler O'Neill.

Last news item here, shout out to legendary manager Jim Leland, who was selected to the Baseball Hall of Fame by the contemporary baseball era committee. obviously much deserved. Shout out to Jim Leland for making the haul. Let's take our final break when we return. The rest of Scott's top 36 outfield rankings. We'll do that here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back in. Let's continue on with the outfield rankings.

And Scott mentioned he has Jackson Turyo all the way up at number 21 in the rankings followed by Brian Reynolds, Spencer Steer, who we also spoke about on our first base podcast, Sayas Suzuki at number 24. 24 and George Springer at 25. Sayas Suzuki is a name we have not talked about yet, Scott, and this past season hit

285 with 20 homers, 75 runs, 74 RBI, 6 steals to 7 caught stealing. So although he grades out very well in terms of sprint speed, not sure how much he's actually going to run moving forward. And it was an interesting season because Sayas Suzuki got diagnosed with an oblique strain right before the year, he went on the IL, he came back, he was not great when he first returned, then he was awesome in May, then had a two-month stretch, June and July, where Suzuki hit 212 with a 578 OPS. If you remember at the time, early August, David Ross sat him down for a few games, said, look, clear your mind, come back, and hopefully we get you back on track.

Well, that's exactly what happened. The final two months of the season, Sayas Suzuki hit 3.49 with a 1072 OPS, plate discipline looks good, Scott, hits the ball extremely hard, and I fully endorse this ranking Sayy Suzuki inside your top 24. Yeah, there was a lot of red on his stat cast page

really the last two years. And it was kind of a head scratcher why Sayas Suzuki wasn't more productive. And my hope is we finally saw him developed the comfort level in the major league game, that he was able to maximize his output, able to perform more like the guy who played

and who starred for so many years in Japan. And I think we're at a point of the rankings here where there isn't a lot of downside to making that assumption. This is kind of the point where we see outfield drop off. Basically, we're not. Not there yet, but we're close to it.

Where Sayas Suzuki, I think, is one of the last Sayas Suzuki and George Bringer, who I have 25th, Evan Carter, I have 26th. And pretty much right there is where you go from players who could potentially be studs to players who probably aren't going to be studs. It's right around that 25 point outfield ranking. So I think Sayas Suzuki, there are risks. it's not a foregone conclusion. He's going to be able to take those last two months and turn them into a full season of greatness. But like I said, not a lot of downside

to taking that chance at this point in the outfield rankings. And I think you also see why I rank Jackson Chorio where I do because so I have him just ahead of Ryan Reynolds, Spencer Steer, and Sayas Suzuki and George Springer. So he's also ahead of that drop off because I do think, obviously, Jackson's choreo has stud potential. And I rank him just ahead of the group that probably aren't going to give you a lot of steals. I know George Springer had 20 plus steals for the first time this past year, but that's not a regular part of his skill set.

It's not something we really count on again. Spencer Steer gave you a decent number of steals, but I've talked many times about how I'm not sure he can live up to his 20s. 2023 production going forward. So that's why I decided on 21st for Chorio is because I think there is an upside concern, at least in 5 by 5 scoring for these outfielders directly behind a Brian Reynolds, Spencer, Spencer, Steer. Say, Suzuki, I'm a little more optimistic about, but there's more downside with him,

and then George Springer. Well, I'll tell you one name that also has a ton of upside, Scott. And that is your number 26th ranked outfielder, Evan Carter, who was awesome in the small sample that we saw. and then carried that over into the postseason as well. After Evan Carter, you have Lane Thomas at number 27, Jordan Walker at number 28, and Nick Cassiano's at number 29, and Jorge Soler here at 30th in the outfield rankings.

More so, I would say, likely to DH, wherever he winds up. He's a free agent this offseason as well. But three names we haven't talked about, Scott. I'll just throw all three your way. Lots to say I would think about all of them. But Evan Carter, again, small sample. It's like, how do we react to this? He looked so good in the regular season.

And then again, in the postseason, also put up huge numbers in the minor leagues last year. Jordan Walker did not live up to expectations, but was solid. He hit 276. He had 16 home runs, seven steals, a 787 OPS. So I think he could build off of that.

Again, he's just, he turns 22 years old in May, so still so, so young. And Jorge Soler, I mean, we pretty much know the deal, Scott. When he's healthy, when he could stay on the field, he has this massive power upside where he just hit 36 home runs this past season. Anything you'd like to add on Evan Carter, Jordan Walker,

and Jorge Salare? Yeah, there's a lot I could say about them. I mean, Evan Carter is kind of what I said about the previous group where there's not a lot of, there's not a lot of justification to fixate on the downside, given what the rest of the outfield position looks like.

And the upside was considerable. The plate discipline was great. he walked 16% of the time in the majors, show a willingness to run. The power production was better than you'd expect, just looking at the raw data. And remember, that was the concern I had for Evan Carter

when he got called up late in the year, so young, so thin. He kind of looks like dark helmet batting. The batting helmet looks so big compared to his body. But even in the playoffs, that power translated. and obviously the Rangers went deep into the playoffs. He had...

I guess he had just one home run and 60 at bats, but he had nine doubles, slugged 500. So I do think there's a chance Evan Carter gets stuck in the lower third of the Rangers lineup and has some Michael Harris issues that way, but it's less certain. In fact, I know for parts of the postseason, and he was bound right in the middle of the Rangers lineup. They seem to have a lot of confidence in him.

I do still, if you're asking me, if you're setting both the home run and stolen base output, the over under at at 19.5. For Evan Carter, I would take the under for both. But certainly plausible. He goes 20-20 as a rookie. Certainly plausible. Yeah.

I think I would probably take the under on the power and the over-on-the-speed. I could see like 15 to 18 homers and 25 plus steals, something like that for Evan Carter. He just gets on base so much too. It's, you know, I'm thinking about it now. The Rangers did not run this year under Bochie. So does that kind of limit his stolen base potential? Maybe it might.

Well, he had more home runs than stolen bases in his 23 regular season games, five home runs, three stolen bases, for whatever that's worth. If you combine his 40 games, total regular and postseason. He had six homers and six steals in 40 games. There you go. And obviously, fly that by four.

There you go. He's going to go 24, 24 this year. Easy enough. So that's my take on Evan Carter. Like I said earlier, like I'm even more on points least because that walk rates. Let's see. Who else am I talking about here?

Jordan Walker. Jordan Walker. Yeah. I was kind of. surprised when I went and looked at how he performed after that stint in the minor leagues. It was better than I thought. He returned and hit 277 with 14 home runs and an 802 OPS. Respectable numbers.

Like if he had put up that line for his entire rookie season, I don't think anybody would have talked about it being a disappointing rookie season for Jordan Walker. An 802 OPS, 277 batting average. But he's going to have to get better than that, I think, to outperform distraft position because what does that translate to? I didn't write down how many games that was in 14 home runs and

I think it would be low to mid-20s and home runs and obviously a solid batting average. Yeah, so not bad but kind of Nick Castionis like and that's how I've ranked Jordan Walker basically. Yeah, and Jorge Saler I want to say

it's as simple as does he stay healthy or and you're just rolling the dice as far as that goes. If he stays healthy, then you get a bargain. If he doesn't, then you've wasted a pick. But it's not even as simple as that because the production isn't always, like for the stretches he's healthy, the production isn't always there. Very inconsistent. His first year in Miami, sure, he played only 72 games.

That's bad enough. But he hit 207 with a 695 OPS in those 72 games. And you look at his track record, so many ups and down. beyond just the games played for Jorge Saler. So the power's legit. He hits the ball as hard as it can be hit and has pretty good play discipline, actually. But you really have no idea what you're getting from him.

There have been three years in his career where you got a really good outcome, and this past year was one of them. I think lots of times, not all of the time, but there are many times where Horace Saler is attempting to play through injury, and I think that's why some of those overall numbers in the down seasons kind of look the way that they do.

Again, it's not all the games, but it just feels like he's always kind of playing banged up. It didn't matter this year. He hit 36 home runs. He was awesome. You know, I don't know if you have this issue, Scott, but last year I drafted so much of Jorge Saler because he was just going so late outside the top 250 picks,

and he pretty much had an everyday role. He was going to play every single day for Miami. Now that I know, He's going at pick 155. He's a top 36 outfielder. I just feel not as inclined to draft him because I already got all the profit last year, right? Is that a bad way to think?

Because I just kind of have it in the back of my mind. You know, see, I invested in him a lot coming off that year in Atlanta. It seemed like he was revitalized. So going into that first year in Miami, when the cost was up, that's when I paid for Jorge Salare, got burned. didn't invest in him at all last year.

And he was a nice pick for those who did. So, no, I think you're playing it exactly right. Yeah. And I don't see myself drafting much of Jorge Saler. You know, if you're weak in the outfield, if I'm weak in the outfield by around pick 150 and I'm weak in power, okay, maybe it's a logical choice,

but it's a very risky one. Yeah. The final six names that we'll talk about here today, number 31 in the outfield rankings, Chas McCormick followed by Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ian Hap, Brandon Nimmo, and T.J. Friedel. As you could see, not as much, I guess you could say excitement, maybe even upside in this group, depending on who you ask.

But that's probably how I feel about this group. We spoke about Santander and T.J. Friedel a little bit on our previous podcast. There are four other names here, Scott. We've got about five minutes left. So I guess anything interesting, you'd like to point out, are you actually buying what you saw from a Chas McCormick? Cedric Mullins played a lot of the season hurt, dealing with groin injuries, so maybe there's a chance he could bounce back. Ian Hap just kind of feels like this solid, high floor volume play

at this point, which isn't a bad thing. You might do the same thing for Brandon Nimmo. He had so many years in a row where he got hurt. He's now played over 150 games two years in a row, and he's been pretty valuable in both years. So what are your thoughts on that group? Ew, is my first thought. Yeah, you better have at least two outfielders by this point. That's what I'll tell you. No, this is, so there was kind of, there was a drop off already, I feel like, prior to this group. But you could, I could see you, like, kind of getting excited about drafting Jordan Walker or Lane Thomas or even Jorge Saler.

Like, I, I can see that. we're really just getting into like, okay, I'm settling for this guy now here once you get beyond about pick 30, about 30th outfielder. And I'm not excited about drafting any of these guys. I think Chas McCormick could be a great pick if what we saw from him was legit. It's hard to say it's legit because it was a 28, an age 28 breakout for a guy who wasn't really much. of a prospect in his early 20s, you know, when he was still a minor leaker. Very out-of-nowware performance for Chas McCormick, but a pretty studly performance from the time it began.

And for the most part, he was an everyday player. There were stretches where he sat some. It doesn't help that you look at the underlying numbers, the eggs of velocities, the strikeout rate, the expected stats. And they're all, they're kind of meh, too, for Chaz McCormick. So, you know, 22 homers, 19 stolen bases was what he ended up with, batted 273, and at what point did he take off. So let's see. So final 90 games for Chas McCorby.

This is really where his season turned around. He had 290 with 18 homers fought 15 steals and an 87 OPS. So that's like, what, a 30 homer pace, 25 steel pace, 290,000. batty like that's really good numbers from chas mccormick i just don't know that the data or the pedigree explains it and so a little reluctant to put much stock in him for 2024 but i think this is the appropriate point to do so you know there's not much exciting left and i did draft him what was it as my fourth outfielder in that first mock draft happy to get him as my fourth outfielder but second outfielder, it seems like a problem.

Cedric Mullins up kind of over him. I don't think he's ever going to approach the 30 homers he hit in 2021 again, and it doesn't seem like the Orioles are even playing him every day anymore. He's kind of a bad choice to bat leadoff, and by season's end they were batting Adley Rushman leadoff, I think, rather than Cedric Mullins. So a lot of his appeal is gone. Even as a base stealing specialist, those aren't as in demand anymore.

So I want to mind if you drafted him even later than this, where I have him 32nd. Hap is fine, but that's all he is, is fine. Brandon Nimmo, his ADP is much lower than this, and I'm not sure why. He's boring. He's boring, but he's going to be helpful in batting average. He's going to be okay for home runs. It's going to score a lot of runs as a high OBP guy atop the Mets line. I mean, it doesn't platoon anymore.

It seems like he's legitimately good. in two categories, batting average and runs, and respectable enough in home runs, that I think he's, I think he's a fine pick here. And so I have him 35th in my outfield rankings and what's his early ADP? I think I saw he's the 42nd outfielder off the board. Yeah, $195. Not a huge difference, but I'm, yeah, I do like Nimmo a little more than the early consensus seems to. Yeah, he was someone that stood out to me when I was diving in earlier. Hit the ball really hard. 91.8 average exit velocity for Nimmo, 87th percentile.

So that was something that stood out. And as you mentioned, 89 runs scored this year. He had over 100 runs scored in 2022. So a chance that it could even bounce back a little bit. But that'll do, Scott. Top 36 outfield rankings, way too early. here heading into 24. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple

or Spotify and we'll be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye.