Fantasy Baseball Today - Early 2024 Starting Pitcher Rankings Part 1! Jung Hoo Lee to the Giants! (12/14 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 14, 2023

Let's get into Scott's 2024 starting pitcher rankings, starting with his top five (2:12). ... Tarik Skubal is ranked inside the top-10 (7:20)?? We knew Scott loved Cole Ragans but this much (17:16)? ... What do we need to know about Yoshinobu Yamamoto (30:02)? ... Max Scherzer and Joe Musgrove both ended the regular season on the IL (40:47). ... News (54:49): Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee signed with the Giants. ... Endy Rodriguez and Ronny Mauricio will miss all of 2024 following injuries during the Dominican Winter League (1:01:40). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in. It's up Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday.

December 14th. I am Frank Stamphle joined by Scott White and Chris the Welsh. Last show, we recap the top 20. starting pitchers from this past season. And today, we are taking a look at Scott's early 2024 SP rankings, trying to get through the top 30 or so. And a bunch of other interesting moves to talk about as well. Jung Hu Lee did sign with the San Francisco Giants.

He is a center fielder coming over from the KBO. And Tyler Glass now was almost traded. Is almost traded? Might be traded by the time you're listening to this. Who knows? No time for salutations. We've got a lot of pictures to talk about. So I am just going to jump right into the rankings, and we are going to start with Scott's

top five SP ranks for 2024. No surprise. You mentioned this on the previous podcast, Scott. There is, I think, a pretty clear top seven, and we see that same exact thing in ADP. So your top five is Spencer Strider, Garrett Cole, Kevin Gosman, Zach Wheeler, and Corbyn. Number six and seven, Luis Castillo, Zach Allen. Your top seven, the same as the early eight. ADP, just kind of moved around in different orders.

So there you go. You're in lockstep, Scott. Does it feel good? All right. For now, it's going to fall out of lockstep, I think, not long after this. But I think the top seven is what it is for a reason. They are the sort of pitchers who provide you with both the volume and the dominance, I guess, that there are fewer questions.

I would say these seven are definitively ahead of the glob. And they're not the only ones in my estimation, but they're the ones I think everybody can agree are they transcend the glob. Did you feel after the brand new mock draft that just happened, which you guys can check over at CBO Sports,

you can check out the new write-up that Scott's got that we all took part in. Did you feel, I don't know, any pushback on your own personal ranks based on how that draft went either in order or of any pitcher that maybe moved up that you weren't expecting or falling? You know, I had a napkin with some moves I made.

I was jotting them down as the draft was happening. But I don't think it happened with any pitchers, to be honest. I decided even before the draft that I wanted to move Yamamoto over. up a few spots. Yoshinobu Yamamoto up a few spots. So he's 16th for me now, I believe. But for the most part, no, I'm, I just go into this draft season and go into any draft,

understanding that I am prioritizing strikeouts in a way the consensus probably isn't. Obviously, strikeouts are a big deal for everybody, but I'm trying to elevate them even beyond that consensus. And we will see that reflected in Scott's rankings coming up very very, very much. very, very shortly. Just wanted to point out with Corbyn, Wheeler, Luis Castillo, Kevin Gossman. As of now, they're all going within six picks of each other in ADP.

So you got to make the decision on those names. Obviously, you're splitting hairs. There is a chance that all of them work out. But there's also a chance they might not all work out. So good luck, making the decision on which of those pitchers to take. Welsh, I did want to ask you very quickly on Gallen because this came up on our previous podcast. Career high, 243 and two-thirds innings.

this past season. That's regular season, postseason combined. Kind of came back down to Earth a little bit in the second half. I know he pitched very well in the final World Series game, but the postseason overall wasn't great either. I think maybe kind of hit a wall in that second half. Do you worry about how many innings he just threw this past season? Yeah, I do. Also, because he had like a little bit of small down tick on the fast. I guess it went back more to average in 2022. The foreseen was sitting around like 94. It was in the 93. and a halfs. The only reason I mentioned that is because, like, he's gone into spots where, you know, he's putting a little bit more focus on some of the secondaries. The changeup has become such a big, important strikeout pitch with him. And also, like, I felt like this was a year that you could feel the weight of the endings on him. He went through a really bad stretch towards the end. There was a period of time where everyone was like, oh, this is a Sy Young guy. Like, Zach Allen might really vie for the Syong. And that was completely gone. That was gone way before Justin Steele fell apart. And I think some of those inconsistencies are putting up massive innings.

I think I looked, I think there were 25 total pitchers in baseball that had 180 innings or more. And like, that's just, that's not our father's baseball. You know, so it's like you want to prioritize that volume. There's only so many pitchers.

That is like saying, okay, everybody in a 12 team league could get two of these guys, but there's going to be someone that's going to jump the priority. All I'm saying is, is like there's a little small extra value into guys that can actually go deeper. Because I think I said this long time ago, the new 180 is like 150. You know, like where a guy would get to 180 in the past, that's like 150 right now.

Like you've got to be comfortable with 150. That's not less than. But the new 180 to 200, that's like 250. You know, so like we just have to change our markers. There's just so many few people that do it. And when you see a guy that does reach that and goes through some of those struggles, Yeah, sure. I think it is definitely something to keep your eye on, but hopefully a better bullpen like they invested in is going to allow him to maybe not have to go eight, nine, and even seven in some instances. That would be the best benefit for him. All right. So again, we're through Scott's top seven starting pitchers ranked for next year. Number eight, nine and ten. We have Tyler Glass now who at the time of recording this still on the Tampa Bay raise. Number nine, Terrick Scoobel. Are you kidding me? We'll talk about it. We'll talk about why in just a second.

Blake Snell is number 10, who is currently a free agent. Tyler Glassdown, by the way, the reported deal on Wednesday morning from Ken Rosenthal, the Dodgers and Rays were discussing a trade that would send Tyler Glassnow and Manuel Margo to L.A. for Ryan Pepio and Johnny DeLuca. We haven't heard anything since, so we'll see what happens. Just focusing on Glassnow what he does when he is on the field, because we know he's struggled with injuries, has never thrown more than 120 innings in the regular season. Among starting pitchers with 120 innings in 2023,

12.2K per 9, second best. 25.8% K minus walk rate, second best. 16.5% swinging strike rate, second best. You see where I'm going with this. He's really, really freaking good. It's just how long are we going to get Glassnow for? Scott, he's entering a contract here. Your thoughts?

Well, I think Tyler Glassnow here is the first representative of my change in approach. to pitching this year because in recent years I might have been put off by the injury risk and deflated him in my rankings actually ranked him

lower than the consensus because of that. But I'm going, you know, with that focus on strikeouts and just feeling like it's so hard to get a difference maker at this position, I'm willing to put aside those concerns and shoot for upside

and hope it works out, hope I can get enough access in that department that I can survive if I, if Tyler Glass now doesn't end up with a career high in innings. But, you know, he did, uh, just have, wait, he did just have his career high in innings, right? Yes. Uh, he threw exactly, 120. 120.

Yeah. And if you combine the postseason and some of the minor league stuff, it was 138.1. So, yeah. So, you know, you're probably realistically not getting more than like 140 or 150, and there's no guarantee you get even that, obviously. But pitch for pitch, I think Tyler Glass now compares the closest to Spencer Strider of anybody. His ex-FIP last year was actually better than Striders. It was 2.75.

And obviously, those are the kind of skills that are going to translate, no matter what team he winds up with, if it's the Dodgers or the Rays or somebody else. And so, you know, once you get past. that clear top seven, I think Tyler Glass now clearly the most talented pitcher, and that's why I'm putting him there. You know, one thing to add on to the slider, the slider, I was looking at the slider ratings here.

On Glass Now, I think it's really interesting that you were just talking about with Strider, I was looking at Stuff Plus models, and Strider had the number one stuff plus of a fastball, I think of the qualified pitchers at 141. But his secondary on the slider was 105. There were only three pitchers that had a, a stuff plus fastball of 125 or higher that also had at least one secondary that was a

125 or higher. And the list isn't even that much bigger if we just talk about like, you know, 100 and 125 on the secondary. And obviously I'm leading to Glass now being that he had the fourth best stuff plus on his fastball. And his curve ball had a 152 stuff plus rating. Surprisingly, the one thing, you know, jumping ahead here, Bobby Miller has. had almost identical, but had three in that range of stuff plus.

It was like 125. But the only other three, the only three guys were Hunter Green, Bobby Miller, and Tyler Glass now. So, I mean, you're obviously talking about just not even needing for me to tell you. You know this is an elite, elite guy, but 33.4% K percentage only to Strider, just like Scott said, walk percentage, mirrored, just like Scott said, huge big stuff. Plus, we just need more innings. and it's like, oh my God, if you make him a Dodger, those are the type of team that could unlock more for him.

We just need healthy innings from Glassnow because the talent is there in droves. That's why it's easy to want to invest in him. The thing that takes you back is the constant injury worries with pitchers, and he's one of the poster children. The one thing that makes me feel, I guess, a little better, is he missed time this past season. Glass Now did, but it was with an oblique injury.

It wasn't an arm injury. So it makes you feel a little bit better, entering a contract year. And yes, I do get very pick and choosy with like the contract years that I like to highlight and the ones that I don't. But Blanksnell just had a contract year. What did he do?

He won the National League Cy Young. So we shall see. Scott's number nine starting pitcher is Terrick Scooboo, who only made 15 starts as he was returning from flexor tendon surgery. But those starts were amazing. He had a 280 ERA, a 0.90 whip, 102 strikeouts, over 80 and a third innings

among starting pitchers. with 80 innings pitch this past season. Scoobel ranks fifth in ERA, first in FIP, first in X-FIP, first in C-FIP, first in Sierra, sixth in K-P-P-P-P-N-P-P-9, second in K-minus walk rate, sixth in swinging Shrike rate.

So by all those metrics, he was a top six-starting pitcher across the board, and some people might think this ranking is crazy, but the early ADP has Scoobel as the SP-12 off the board. Steamer projections have Scubble as the S. SP 5. So you guys are pretty much all in locks up here, Scott. Top 12 starting pitcher, but he is another one. How many innings are we going to get? And I feel like that's going to be a

constant theme. Yeah, I mean, I think Terrick Scoobal is, he's more typical in terms of the buildup, a young pitcher goes through at the start of his career. You know, he hasn't been in the majors that long. It's a little different from Tyler Glass now where it's just repeated injuries over and over again. He did have the elbow flexor surgery that cost Terrick Scoobel the start of last year, but he came back from it throwing a couple miles per hour harder, and

that's what's allowed him to take off here. And yeah, I mean, you say he was first in expected ERA, he was first in FIP. By a large degree, I will point out, among pitchers, what did you use as the cutoff innings-wise?

80, because he had 80 in a third innings. Yeah, his expected ERA, Scubles, was 228. Second was Pablo Lopez at 3. Wow. The FIP for Scoobel was an even 2. Second was Sunny Gray 2.83. Yeah.

So he was blowing out the rest of the league in those measures. Great control, great strikeout stuff. And even, you know, the outings were a little short when he first came back from the surgery, understandably. But by the end, he was putting up, you know, he was going six innings with consistency. and his effectiveness wasn't diminished at all. Pitch is at a great park for pitchers? You know, you could ask for a better offense behind him, I guess.

But I've already gone on the record to say Terrick Scoobel is my bold pick for AL Cy Young. He's ninth in my rankings, but he's first in my heart. And you know what's great? I was going to just point out real quick, Welsh, even if you expand this to 2022, those two seasons combined, the past few years he's pitch, he's made 36 starts. 323 ERA, 105, WIP, 10K per 9, 48% ground ball rate, 13% swinging strike rate. So yes, he was like super dominant this year, but even if you combine his past two years pitching, he's been really, really reliable.

I don't know if you've worked on pitching rankings yet, Welsh, but what do you think about, A, the ranking for Scott here, SP9, and ADP, SP12? Yeah, I'm going to have here, I am working on that right now. He is going to be between 10 and 12 for me. This is the general. I actually think it's fascinating. that you have him right next to Glassnow because that's the question. I think those are two prime questions.

The thing is, is like, I guess you get into a different range because it's like Glassnow goes and he's a Dodger and he just, you know, came off of this injury and presumably healthy. You want to give him that benefit of the doubt. But, you know, like you were talking about, you're talking about a lot of the expected stats too. I think you mentioned this. But also of that any innings qualified,

he had the best Sierra in all of baseball of pitchers. He was only one of two pitchers to have a sub three. three Sierra. And the other one was Spencer Strider. And he beat Spencer Strider by quite a bit, almost point 10 on the points, which is a significant margin. You don't see that type of

jump on a lot of these guys. The K percentage was elite. The walks were elite. He also on the VLO increases this year, he had the 10th highest fastball increase on overall for his Velo. And what that did was that allowed

him to kind of change that mix up, because he was more primary slider last year, dumb that down a little bit. Then you get that fastball pumping harder. His whiff percentage went up 2%. And then that change up just started destroying people. So yeah, scuba doesn't walk. He gets massive strikeouts.

He's healthy. He's changed the mix. He's just a guy that feels like he popped out of nowhere with the tigers. He's going to be one of those wake up call players in 2024 for a lot of people when they're like, wait a minute. I have to take Ellie in the second. I got to take scubal in like the fourth.

Not to Cole Reagan's in the fifth? Like if you weren't here. Yeah, if you weren't here with us, it's going to be a rude awakening if you're not already getting prepped. I should have mentioned this earlier, but for the names that we recapped on the previous episode, we're obviously going to skip over those today.

You could go back and listen to that podcast, obviously. We're going to focus on the names here in Scott's rankings that we have not broken down yet, which brings us to SP 11 through 15. We're going to go through these in like clusters of five, but Scott's 11th ranked starting pitcher. Cole Regens. Hello.

Followed by Pablo Lopez, Kodaisenga, Freddie Peralta, and Logan Webb. Cole Regens, by the way. Haven't heard that in a while. The Reagan. Just turned 26 two days ago.

So happy belated birthday to Scott's Man Crush here. Former first round pick from back in 2016. So it took some time here, put up some gaudy strikeout numbers in the minors, did struggle with control.

He entered last spring training with the Rangers. He added big velocity last offseason. And he did credit Tread Athletics, who we've heard other pitchers working with in the offseason and gaining velocity. So same thing happened for Reagan's. Then he was traded to the Royals for a Roldish Chapman,

and he took off. Scott, I call him your man crush. You have him at SP 11. I know you won strikeouts. Just a heads up is the early ADP, Cole Reagan's SP 34. You have met SP 11. Explain y'allself.

Well, I think it's the neck-and-neck competition to see who has, the bigger man crush on Cole Regans between Nick Pollack of pitcher list and me. And I don't know, maybe I've been, maybe I was seeing so much of the, the Pollock hype matching my own on Twitter that I kind of assumed everybody was in on Regens as the next big ace in fantasy. He's another example of me prioritizing upside in the pitcher ranks

because, I mean, you won't find a pitcher with much more than that. Yes, there was the increase in mile. in velocity of about four miles per hour last year, which, you know, one, one and a half, two, that's a lot. Four is insane. And it was evident from spring training, and I kind of liked him then. But then he got stuck in that bullpen roll for the Rangers,

and it wasn't going so well. It was only after he was traded to the Royals. He began working a slider into his arsenal. It became his best swing and miss pitch. But really, he has five pitches that are capable of missing bats. a fastball that peaked at 101 miles per hour at one point, which you rarely see from a left-hander. It's more, you know, in the 98-99 range,

but still a really hard fastball for Cole Regens. And yeah, from that time he took over in the Royals rotation in August, he was one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. Let me see if I could find that K-per-9 rate. It was 86 strikeouts in 66 and 2-thirds inning. So, like, an incredible rate. If there's a downside with Reagan's, well, I mean, you know, obviously he has to prove durability. And he has had a couple, I think he's had Tommy John surgery twice.

So that's, I guess, the biggest downside. But also there is, there have been, there are control issues in his past. And for as much as he dominated during that 11 start stretch with the Royals, the last four starts, six walks, two walks, four walks. and remember in one of those starts, he had like three wild pitches in a row. Yeah. Which seemed like, you know, it seemed like he was having some issues with the mound,

so it wasn't so much like just misfiring. But even so, you know, that kind of raised an eyebrow amid the celebration of Cole Reagan's coming out party. But overall, the results during that four-star stretch were still good, and there were still a lot of strikeouts, and it wasn't enough to turn me off to him. He's my number 11 pitcher.

and the highest ranked spark, if you're in a league where that matters. Yeah, so again, that is a starting pitcher ranked as a relief pitcher, which on CBS you can use in head-to-head points leagues, and it's kind of like a cheat code. And obviously, Colerang, Reagan's being ranked as high for Scott as a starting pitcher. He's going to be ranked really high as a relief pitcher as well. I think the big detractors of Cole Reagan, Scott, and you see that ADP push down, is just being conservative for the reasons you mentioned.

the lack of track record, the control, which has been an issue in the past. I think it's easier to make that argument for Scouble and Tyler Glass now just because we've seen it a little bit more in the majors and then obviously Uber dominance in Scoobel's case. But I think that's just people kind of playing a conservative with Cole Regens. Welsh, I wanted to ask you about Freddie Peralta. We did not get to him on our previous podcast. He is Scott's SP 14 in the rankings here.

wound up with a 386 ERA, which was inflated, got himself into charge, trouble with home runs this year. He allowed six earned runs on July 21st. From that point forward, Freddie Peralta was a league winner. 11 starts, 244 ERA, a 0.85 whip, 92 strikeouts to just 11 walks during that time, 13.2K per 9, 1.6 walks per 9. He had a 251 FIP, a 16.6% swinging strike rate. So why do I like him, right? Do, no, it's amazing, right? Strikeouts. But we do have some questions about shoulder issues in the past. We did see dominance in 2021, but 2022, not nearly as much. So we're kind of all over the place with Freddie Peralta.

Do you think SP 14 in Scott's rankings is too high? Just right? What do you think? I mean, they're Scott's ranks. And I'm not doing that as the cop out. For what it's worth, the ADP is SP 13. So ADP is in line with Scott's ranks here. Yeah, I don't, I want to chase strikeouts. just like Scott does.

I want to be beholden to them. It's the homers of starting pitchers. Big strikeout numbers, carry you into the weeks with, for the most part, usually good whip numbers outside of, you know, weird guys like Blake Snell and Coleriggins,

to be honest with you. Freddie Peralta has kind of been that guy before. If you remember in 2018, he had a 12 and a half percent walk rate. So he is kind of like the path of what we've seen with some of these other guys. my problem of like being any negative to him is he was just so ridiculously dominant this past year. He increased his fastball by over two miles per, just around two miles per hour.

The slider came with it as well, which is impressive. Also added around 200 RPM on that slider. So that baby was spinning a little bit more. And the whiff numbers ended up being really good. He actually, of his four pitches he throws, which are double digit percentage is 30% or higher on three of the four pitches, K percentage, 30% K percentage on the curveball, the slider, and the four-seam fastball. The change-up just wasn't getting there.

Those are really impressive numbers. And his walk percentage has dropped. I mean, we're talking about Cole Regans in double-digit walk percentage. He had a career low 7.9% walk rate while having top 8% t-rate this year. I think we do have to take him and be real on him. I would take Peralta over Regens right now. they both feel a little high. And I'm saying this while I'm like,

I'm with you on Scoobel. Like I'm very much here on Scoobel. Some of the like really massive injury control guys, like Freddie Paralta has some of those long term control issues that stand with me and the injury stuff. So does Regans. I probably don't reach as high and probably won't have as many shares as Scott and some of the others on specifically Regans and Peralta.

But I think we're in the general range. It's just a tiny bit too high. I think these guys are very volatile. It's going to be dependent on, where in drafts you can get them. I want these type of risks a little bit later, I suppose. Yeah, it feels that way, maybe this year more than ever. I'd have to look at, you know, the history of ADP,

but just like guys like Reagan's or even Terrick Scoobble, we're taking Scooboons inside the top 60 picks. Yeah. While he was amazing, don't get me wrong, it just, it does feel a little bit unproven for taking a pitcher that high. I want to take Scoobo, but it's just like, it feels weird to draft him that early. Is this also a collective? No, no, I want to get your answer on this, Scott.

This glob effect here, though, is like, to me, this also has the feel of, like, all these guys, maybe they have varying degrees of concern or whatever, but all these guys do this thing I like. So I'm going to throw them all up here. But, like, push comes to shove. Are you willing to take, like, Scoobel and Regens? Scuba Regens, Peralta? Like, are you willing to do that heavy invest? You know how some people will be like, hey, I want Ellie, but I'm not going to, like, also go and take, you know, like,

CJ Abrams or I'm not going to also going to take O'Neill Cruz. You know what I'm saying? Are you willing to commit that hard to all of these players? Or is it like I just need one or two? So kind of my basic strategy in drafts this year and I don't think it, especially in head-to-head points, but basically in Roto 2 is I see about

almost four rounds worth of hitters that are stud hitters and I just want to draft nothing but hitters until the stud hitters are gone. The MVP caliber hitters are gone. And then I want to pivot and draft pitchers while the hitters during that period

in the draft when hitters are looking more interchangeable because I don't think the early round pitchers give you enough of an advantage and I do think that this range of pitchers here

offer upside to mimic that upper range of pitchers more downside obviously but the kind of upside that can distinguish them from the glob still which is why I'm emphasizing strikeouts that's part of the reason

I'm emphasizing strikeouts part of it is just because it's just because it's you know, a strikeout pitcher is going to give you strikeouts. And so if you target a bunch of strikeout pitchers, you could feel confident where you're going to finish in that category while ERA and whip during this volatile time for starting pitchers is much dicier. So, yeah, I mean, push comes to shove.

In the drafts I've done so far, it hasn't worked out that I could get both Scoubel and Regens, Freddie Peralta. It hasn't worked out that I gave to get even two of those guys. But if it did, I'd be excited about it. I'm hoping with that approach I'm taking in drafts that I can get, It's something like four of my top, uh, 20,

five or so pitchers. So I'm kind of making up for missing out on a true ace by giving myself a chance to, to miss on that, on this next group of pitchers. That's more volatile. Yeah. And I'll point out in the first mock draft

that we did this offseason, I took hitters in the first four rounds. and then in round five and six, I took Scuba and Peralta and feel great about the strikeout upside, but I gotta say, it did feel a little bit weird. I'm just like,

do I have enough innings? Do I have enough proven commodities here? And I was kind of questioning that in the back of my mind. So I think it's a fair question and something we'll be talking about all offseason. Let's take our first break. But before we do that,

just a little programming note, a heads up that on Tuesday's podcast, we have not one, but two guests. joining us to talk about the glob of Scott's starting pitcher ranking. So a little bit of a tease there and you'll find out next week. Let's take

our first break and we'll be back right after this. It's the fathers of the glob. That's who's coming on. Oh, the fathers of the true fathers of the glob. The glob fathers. Who's termed I apparently I apparently hijacked

unknowingly or maybe subconsciously hijacked by repurposing the glob, which the term they were using for a range of the picture rankings in 2019, I believe. Yeah. That was about right. I was going to say, does that make you the godfather, Scott? But the Wells jumped in with something even better.

And that would be, that would be the Glob father. The Glob father. There you go. Yeah. The Glob father. All right. Let's get back into Scott's early starting pitcher rankings. And number 16 through 20, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is coming over from Japan,

currently still a free agent when recording this. Number 17 is Max Fried, followed by George Kirby. Aaron Nola, and lastly, Framber Valdez is down there at number 20. Scott, I don't want to spend too much time on Yamamoto because I want to wait to see where he signs. Obviously, it seems like it's going to be a good team. The Dodgers, the Yankees, the Mets are all in on him, the Red Sox, the Giants. There's a bunch of teams bidding for Yamamoto right now. But a 25-year-old Japanese phenom, likely to get somewhere between $200 and $300 million.

He has posted an ERA under 1.7. three years in a row, and we're just not used to a starting pitcher that dominant coming over at this age, 25 years old. Yeah, so I don't know how much you want to get into it, but Enosaris of the Athletic wrote an article recently pointing out that MLB teams have gotten much better

at evaluating pitchers from Japan, from Korea, from overseas, because of the data that's available now, where they can look at the individual pitching characteristics and have a better idea how it's going to translate. So misses in the past, like Dice Game Matsuzaka are going to be fewer and farther between is the hope. And he did an analysis of each of Yamamoto's individual pitches, and it sounds like, you know, what would be the perfect pitcher?

You give him the splitter of Kevin Gosman. You give him the change up of, I can't even remember who the other comps were. those memes. It's those memes that are out there where it's the perfect arms and they... Yeah, right. And that's basically what it sounds like Yamamoto is. And then of course he has the

numbers to back it up. And he's only 25 years old. You know, he's technically going to be a prospect this upcoming season. He's clearly the number one pitching prospect in baseball. Seems funny to call him that. But as I'm going through my prospect

rankings right now, that's top of mind. And yeah, I think he's worth, I think he's, you know, if I'm emphasizing upside, it's, it's hard to think of too many pitchers who have more than Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The only thing I want to add real quick is he had the, I think I mentioned this before, it's been said, you know, was the one that cited it, but fourth best stuff plus in the WBC, Yamamoto had. But also what I think is interesting is he's commonly been talked about, also in like his unique

just kind of like physicality and some of the stuff that he does is agility and also the way he's kind of changed the way he pitches with like a high hold leg kick or some of the quick pitch stuff. All of this is to say he's been seen as like

a coat, this is a cheap analogy, but like a Kodai Senga with command. And the reason that they do that is there are obviously similar arsenals in there because he also throws that forkball. And just to throw this out here, Kota Senga's number one pitch from a whiff perspective, K percentage was his forkball. It was the 29th highest K pitch in baseball.

Like of any singular pitch by any single pitcher, it was top 30 best K percentage. Now throw on a pitcher that is perceivably a better command fork and then have better stuff plus on the fastball with better overall command. That's the reason that the excitement exists out there. There's still so much to be seen, but that's where people are coming from. Yeah, and if people want an idea of the early ADP on Yamamoto, 76.2 as the SP 22 off the board, my guess is if he lands with like the Dodgers, that's probably going to tick up a few spots and maybe even catch up to where Scott has him at SP 16. Two other names here we have not talked about yet.

Max Fried at SP 17 and Arandola at SP 19. Max Fried, just rock solid. If you look at since the start of 2022, he's made 44 starts, 250 ERA, 105 whip, 8.6K per 9. So it doesn't give you the gaudy strikeout numbers, but very solid across the board. And you look at, did want to point out with Max Fried, by the way, did miss time this year with a strain left forearm. So that limited him to just 77 and two-thirds innings, entering a contract year. I think it's something that obviously we should have in the back of our mind entering 2024. And then Aaronnola, who for some reason just hate.

I don't know what to make of it, but he just hates odd years. Look at his ERA by year since 2018. 237, 387, 328, 463, 325, 446 this past season. So you know what that means? It is time to buy on Aeronola. Maybe. That's just some... Those are my favorite stats on the planet. I love those because it makes like really smart people super mad. And I'm like here for that. I stare at that and I'm like, guys, this is. is clearly the other year. You have to buy Aaronola. History has told us that there's no science to it, but it is right there in our faces. It's my favorite thing on the planet. Yeah, it's super sophisticated analysis, which you won't hear anywhere else.

But what I will actually point out for Arenola is that the strikeout rate has dropped three years in a row. The swinging strike rate has dropped three years in a row. Has trouble at times with home runs and obviously doesn't have the best defense behind him. Nova kind of has to tow this line more than other quote unquote aces because he just doesn't have overpowering stuff. And, you know, looking into the strikeout rates being down and just the variance in ERA year over year,

I just don't think I want to do the Aranola thing anymore. There is no discount. People are drafting him as the SP 11 off the board. Scott has him down at SP19. I'm probably going to be closer to where Scott is than the consensus right here. But any quick thoughts, Scott, on either Freed or Aranola. Well, I would say NOLA is closer to the model of the pitcher I'm trying to draft this year than Freed, actually.

So maybe if the consensus is higher on Nola, maybe I need to flip them around. I don't know. I mean, Freed is stable. Freed is, you know, a great source of ground balls, a great source of walks, or, you know, one of the better control pitchers. And that combines to make them a very safe source of ERA. and of course he's a very safe, reliable source of wins on the Braves, but he's not going to give you many strikeouts, especially when you factor in his durability issues.

So I would say, you know, I have Logan Webb 15th and then Max Fried's 16th. Those are two that I'm kind of, you know, I don't want to drop them too far down my rankings given their track records, but I'm not as eager to draft them because they don't have that big strikeout upside. Nola does. I mean, his strikeout rate has gone down like you said, but still, Five of the last six years, with the one exception being 2020, 200 plus strikeouts. I mean, you can't ask for better than that. And yes, he has a lower margin for error because of the velocity, the lower velocity.

That does get him into trouble sometimes. But it seemed like he fixed that issue going into the playoffs last year. It was a mechanical issue that basically made it so he couldn't spot the ball on the corners to throw strikes, it had to be like right down the middle, and that made him vulnerable to home runs. I mean, it makes sense to me. And so, you know, he seemed to fix that mechanical issue. We've seen it, you know, a couple full seasons

where he struggled with something like that. And so I think that does make him dangerous, but you know you're going to get the strikeouts with them. And it's a reasonably good chance you're going to get an overall ace outcome, too. I'd be very interested, too, to just see the pitch mix change because he went primary curveball this year. It was 33% fastball, 26 curveball the year before. This year was 31.5% curve ball, 29% fastball.

And I wonder if this was about the lack of trust or there was something gone in the fastball outside of just like clear velocity. We can always talk about that. But there was no actual full decline. And the reason I'm saying this is the year before, he had an 88 exit velocity on the fastball. It was 91 this past year. The distrust in the fastball, having him throw. more curve balls might have been, especially if you're throwing them in earlier counts, might have led to some of those strikeout problems.

So you got to wonder if there's something in the off season that can be fixed on that because he, I think, clearly knew the fastball he was getting hit way harder. So he had to make that adjustment and his strikeouts suffered from that. It seems like a very fixable thing, especially when there's no discernible like Velo difference in the fastball. That thing is the same. There was something about it that was different this past year. Maybe also one of those, not that he's the type of guy.

But, you know, you have shifts change and you just weigh pitchers kind of adjust. The fastball didn't work quite as much as it used to for him. And I guess I'm saying the theory seemed to be location was the issue because of that mechanical issue he was dealing with. Which was the fastball clearly. I mean, because that thing he couldn't. He was the control on it. I mean, I'm looking here too on the heat map, not to keep going on about him. But on baseball.

So on if you're looking at the heat map, that fastball heat map in 2003 is dead. red middle. And when I say dead red middle, I am talking like it is boom. The last year it had a little bit more elevation on it where the the heat of the fastball was. It was a little bit higher on the zone. This one was dead center. So command fix. Maybe you get back to where Nola was. He also had a ginormous expected ERA difference between his actual. It was close to a full run. 3.71 expected ERA, which makes him way, way more serviceable. So I hate that you don't get a discount on him because I would like that. because I'd like to buy.

But what did you say? It was 11. SP 11 off the board. The risk on that, like you need him to be SP 20 and you're like sweet because I can get back to top S15 SP. But I don't know.

That makes it rough. And I don't want to downplay this mechanical issue that he changed going into the postseason. He pitched very well in the playoffs. 235, IRA. 0.96 whip, a strikeout per inning. But as you point out, Scott, I mean, if we're making excuses

for a quote unquote mechanical issue, He's had that for entire seasons in two of the past three years. A 4-46 ERA are better, and you're drafting him as the SP11 off the board. So there's big upside, but in terms of, like, what he could do to your ratios over, like, 200-innings pitch, I think it's probably a little bit too much for me, but I'm sure there are people out there that obviously still do want to draft Aeronova that high. Let's move on to SP 21 through 25, and we have Justin Steele here, followed by Kyle Bradish. Max Scherzer.

People might have been wondering, where is Max Schurzer? I haven't heard his name yet. Down at SP 23, ADP says, not low enough. ADP is SP 37 for Max Scherzer. They are out. Joe Musgrove at SP 24 and Walker Bueller at SP 25.

So a very interesting group of pitchers here, Scott. And I will throw both Scher and Musgrove your way together because for different reasons, I mean, they both dealt with injuries this year. Scherzer obviously getting up there in age. He's 39. He turns 40 in July.

I think we've kind of seen some signs here. The strikeout rate being down, the walk rate being up, struggling with home runs. The swinging strike rate, still very good by league-wide standards, 13.3%. But his lowest since 2014. So we are seeing the skills starting to decline now for Max Scherzer. And just consistently dealing with like these back and neck injuries,

you know, ended the regular season on the IEL, did Max Scherzer. Same thing with Mussel. Musgrove. Musgrove has been great when he pitches. The past three years for the Padres, it's kind of like a metronome. It's the same thing year in and year out. He's really, really good. He ended the year on the IL with capsule inflammation in his right shoulder.

So I kind of need to wait and see Musgrove pitch and spring training and hear how he's doing and what the velocity looks like. But both of these two guys ended the regular season, at least, on the IL. Yeah, I mean, if I'm just analyzing them on an individual level as opposed to trying

to work them into my grand strategy at starting pitcher, then I would say I'm pessimistic about Scher and optimistic about Joe Musgrove. Scher really left the sour taste in everybody's mouth it seems like in the postseason where he allowed

14 earn runs, or wait a second, no, I'm including one from 2022, but he allowed seven earn runs in in nine and two-thirds innings and his three postseason starts, all of them short. So he got knocked around in the postseason

did Max Scherzer. But fitting him into my grand plan, if I'm not stressing so much about downside and really just selling out for upside, selling out for that big strikeout potential. Scherzer still delivered on that. He had a 10.3K per 9 rate to go along with 370-R-A-12 whip,

which is certainly good, enough for those Ks for this price range. I'm not going to be excited to draft him, but I want those strikeouts ultimately if the value is there on draft day for Scherzer, which it seems like it might be. As for Musgrove, I would feel a lot better if he did make it back before the end of last season

from that shoulder injury. And remember, he was gearing up to come back and the Padres just decided, nah, I mean, You know, we're out of it. Let's just shut him down. But for the time Musgrove was healthy, he was great. 305 ERA, 114 whip, right at a strikeout per inning.

I mean, basically the exact same guy for all three of his years with the Padres. And because surgery's been ruled out on that shoulder, I guess that could change. But that's the story right now. Then I'm trying not to worry about it so much. I love Musgrove, by the way. I just want to say he's going to be a tariff. of mine this year. I think obviously the injuries played such a big role in everything that he was going through. The pitch mix changes. I thought were fascinating in a primary slider. Then slider just took a back seat this past year in favor of where he was just going really heavy fastball curve. You could also argue like the definitions of sliders and cutters. He's kind of messed around with that. I have this very vivid memory in spring training of being next to the dugout during one of the training sessions and Musgrove talking about how excited he was. about this change-up that he had been working on.

He had a new grip on a change-up, and then it ended up being a good pitch, 40% width rate, the highest whiff rate of any pitch he had, and he ended up throwing it 11% of the time, which was up 5% from the year prior. I'm saying all this to say that, like, the fastball did weird stuff.

Another heat map situation, I'll just tell you, is he was kind of like, you know, sitting middle of the zone this past year, the entire upper zone. And I'm not just like maybe a little bit, It is the entire upper zone while he was messing with secondaries. You give, and Velo was up, you give me a healthy Joe Muskrove with still three plus 30% plus whiff percentages.

I didn't say that well, but three pitches that have a 30% or higher whiff percentage that he throws double digit percentage of the time. I'm in for that and I'm in for Musgrove and he'll be a buy for me this year. Yeah, it really just comes down to the shoulder and hearing more about, We probably won't hear anything about it until February when pitchers and catchers report. But if all reports are good, I think you're going to start to see him move up. So the ADP is SP 30 off the board from Musgrove.

I think people are kind of hedging their bets right now and waiting to see a little bit, which is kind of where I am on Musgrove as well. But if he's healthy, I agree. I think I would be a buy on Musgrove at that current ADP. SP25, we mentioned was Walker Bueller, who is 29 years old now coming back from his second Tommy John surgery. and researching this, it sounds like, you know, your second Tommy John, it has like a 60 to 70% success rate. And I feel like there have been more pitchers that haven't really come back the same

as the ones that have. Now there have been some. Like Nathan Avaldi has had two Tommy John surgeries and... Cole Reagan's baby, better than ever. There you go. And Avaldi has done it. He's done it for a while now. He just did it in the postseason.

He was great this past season. So it's not impossible. And of course, Walker Bueller still at a prime. age, 29 years old, he was looking to return late in the season. He made one rehab start. There were two innings topped out at 96 miles per hour on the fastball, which is good to see. And, you know, decided against the return. Dodgers reiterated that it didn't suffer a setback or anything. They're just kind of playing it safe and saving him for the start of 2024. The last we saw Scott Walker Bueller back in 2022, didn't look like himself. The numbers weren't

Gray, great. The fastball velocity has been dropping down over the past three years that we did see Walker Bueller pitch. He feels like one of the impossible pitchers to rank right now. So kudos to you for doing it. He's your SP 25. Yeah, it feels like the bottom of a tier, sort of. I said my top 25, I wanted four of my top 25, ideally. And I was kind of looking at where Walker Bueller ranked. I remember I did something similar with my Justin Verlander ranking his first year coming back from Tommy John surgery at an advanced age in his case. Yeah, I mean, I throw out 2022 for Walker Bueller because we came to find out he had ligament damage in his elbow. So of course, he was not looking like himself. That makes sense. The year before, he had a 247 ERA in a career high

207 and two-thirds innings. And I think was a consensus top five guy in fantasy, right? So, you know, the hope is he comes back and is that guy again. And I think that's a realistic outcome for Walker Bueller. I'd feel more confident in it happening if it was the first Tommy John as opposed to the second. But he's still in his 20s. You know, he's a young guy. I think that being a young guy and being as established as he is, I think both of those make it more probable that he's able to,

you get back to pitching at a high level. Can I ask one thing on him for you? I agree with what Frank. I think what Frank said is the best. Like, he's impossible. He's impossible to manage right now. The best thing that happened was the Dodgers not having a boat go back out. But this is also a pitcher that it's almost like he was like a like a frozen in ice and

woke up and he's in a world where they don't have the shift and the bases are closer and there's a clock. I mean, like he's going to like appear into this world. this entire new baseball. The balls are, they're flying and all this type of stuff. And you look at Walker Bueller and you're like, okay, there's all of that plus the injuries.

Is he a contingent player at all to you with exactly what I said before? You're out here, Wild West gunsling and Scotty, I'm taking Cole Regans and Tarek Schuble. I got all these guys. You're going to also pull the trigger on Walker Bueller? Or do you think this is maybe the start of the contingency of like, well,

let me take a look at what my roster looks like before I dive into the waters. taking a top 25 pitcher in Walker Bueller, or you are just, you're ready for a gunfire. I am not playing the category game at starting pitcher because I feel like it's, it's, it's a wild goose chase. I feel like ERA specifically is so unpredictable in this environment. I mean, yes, I have a stronger feeling that Max Fried is going to finish with a good ERA than that Aaronola is going to finish with the good ERA. But there are, for all classes of pitcher, there are so many extreme highs and in this environment, at least the way it played out in 2023.

Maybe they'll be more adjusted at this point and it'll go smoother. But, you know, I can only react to what I'm seeing. And so I'm just trying to target the one pitching contribution that I feel like I can predict, that I feel like if I emphasize that, I will win that category. But I'll probably take the more talented pitchers who can hopefully wind up with a good ERA and whip just because they're avoiding damage on contact. But I wasn't talking about that. I was talking risk reward of like,

like, are you, are you not scared about like injuries and all the other stuff? Like, you're good. Because I'm hoping to draft more of them. Okay.

And so I'm not, my goal is to not be intentional about the pitchers I'm drafting in this range to just take the best I think there is. Gotcha. At the point where I'm looking to take one, you know. I think the problem,

and I don't want to spend too much time on this because we do have some other stuff to talk about and I think it's a conversation for another day. But the category, Scott, it's not like K percentage category. It's volume too. So while you're getting these guys that are, I think, Uber talented on a per inning basis, I think you have to factor in projecting innings as well.

And maybe you have to kind of mix in some of these guys that you know are a little bit safer. Because if you're just building out a pitching staff that has glass now and Scobel and Freddie Peralta and Walker Bueller, it's like, You might get an average of like 130 innings from those guys this season, you know? That's kind of what I was referring to. But when they go down, there is this vast glob to supplement from.

And it is vast. It is like 60 to 80 pitchers deep that are more or less interchangeable in my mind. And a lot of them aren't even going to be drafted. They're going to be available out there throughout the year, at least in a 12-team league. Now, when you talk a deeper league, like a 15-team league, you can't count on even that caliber of pitcher to be on waivers to supplement with. So I see what you're saying more if we're catering to the Deep League like that, where I might have to be a little more conscientious about who I'm taking

and the balance of safety and upside. But I'm going to try to make it so I have enough enough. in number that, you know, if one or two of them don't pan out, it's, it's not the end of the world. Like, that's what I'm going to try to do. I haven't done a 15 team draft yet. So maybe I'll find out it's harder than I think it's going to be. You became the fantasy Neil deGrasse Tyson there, by the way. We need like Photoshop. You're like in a vast world, a vast glob world. We can explore the depths of starting pitcher without fear. You just be careful. You are, you are our fantasy Neil deGrasse Tyson, Scott. There you go. All right. Let's a new one.

Let's take our final break, and when we return, we'll get into those news items. No more starting pitchers, because we don't have much time left. Let's do it right after this. Welcome back in. We got to the top 25 of Scott's early starting pitchers. Which I think is pretty good. And if we didn't have news to talk about, we would get through the top 30 or 35 or so. But we'll save those for next week.

Again, we're not going to get into like the super deep names. We have all offseason to talk about those. But my guess is we'll probably be able to get through like the top 50-ish. by the end of our next podcast. Let's talk about some of the news and notes and the Giants, we mentioned earlier, signed Korean outfielder, Jung-Hul-Lee to a six-year,

$113 million deal, and I hope he turns out to be a stud because the Giants have been trying for years to land a big name, and I was watching MLB Network, and they're trying to hype this up, like, they finally got their star, which, I don't know,

it felt a little bit disingenuous to me, They're just trying to prop up the Giants. But I hope it turns out that way. We'll see. Junghuli is 25 years old, former MVP of the KBO. He played seven seasons in Korea. And his career triple slash 340, 407, 491, coming off a year where he just hit six homers and six steals across 86 games,

was dealing with an ankle injury to end the year, and hit a career high 23 home runs in 2022. So does have a little bit of pop. Will we be able to see that manifested? in Oracle Park in San Francisco. My guess is probably not. But Scott, your thoughts here on Jung-Hul-Lee, the player and the landing spot with the Giants.

No, no, I'm not expecting much pop at all. I see highlights of him in Korea, and I've yet to see a home run. Like, it always, like, bounces against the wall. And those are the highlights, everybody spreading around. And, no, he, look, he was a career 340 hitter in Korea, was Jung-Hul-Lee. he had about twice as many walks

his strikeouts over the last three years. Doesn't strike out much at all. It's a good lead-off profile, and I think that's going to be the main thing Jung-Hu-Lee has going for him from a fantasy perspective as he's likely to bat at the top of the lineup more days than not.

But I'm not expecting much power production at all. In a way, it kind of reminds me of the conversations we were having about Masataka Yoshita at this time a year ago, but I think it's an even more extreme version of that, less power even than Yoshida, more contact ability, probably, but basically what we're aiming for here with Jung-Hu-Lee is like Luis Arise. And that's a really fine rope to walk when you're contributing that little in home runs and stolen bases. You need to really have a

high, high-batting average. It's tough to do. And so I think he's going to be pretty middling is Jung-Hul-Lee for fantasy, certainly for roto leagues. I like them more in points leagues and actually took them as my third outfielder in our points mock the other day.

But I don't think there's a really high ceiling here. It's more just for that format. He doesn't strike out much. And so he can do the Stephen Kwan thing because of that. All right, the royal signed Seth Lugo to a three-year $45 million deal

and good for him because he wanted to start this past season. The Padres gave him that opportunity, and he parlayed that into a three-year deal. So love it for Seth Lugo. He turned 34 in November. He had a great year with the Padres. For someone that was undrafted in fantasy at 357 ERA, a 120 whip, he doesn't put up these gaudy swinging strike numbers, but he has very good control, still has an elite curve ball, one of the highest spin rates in all of baseball. The early ADP is 283, just behind Kyle Harrison, just ahead of Marcus Stroman. What do you think about that price tag, Scott?

and here we go. Seth Lugo, it's the Royals. Yeah, I don't love the landing spot. I mean, you could make the case maybe that Seth Lugo had sleeper potential when he could go anywhere. But since he went to the Royals, it's hard to see him improving much

on the eight wins he had with the Padres last year. They unlock stuff, though. What about the, maybe unlock more velocity on the fastball, maybe more slider usage. Cole Regens is a rare example of that in the Royals history. Chris Boone.

He'll be a safe source of E. All right, well, Seth Lugo, but I'm not sure he's going to be impactful for fantasy. I think he's slightly better than a streamer type, I would say, somebody to kind of round out your staff late in drafts. Wins will be hard to come by, but it's a good part to pitch in. It's a great division of pitching in the AL Central. So, yeah, I think in those deeper leagues, if you do kind of need like a ERA whip stabilizer, like later on in your draft, I think he's fine in that regard. Maybe somebody I need to draft in those 15 teamers to go along with all. my risky guy. Yeah, go along with your scubles and your Walker Bueller's, get yourself a Seth Lugo.

Maybe a little Michael Waka, wherever he signs later. I totally agree. Waka. Scott's going to wind up with like the back half of his draft is going to be just like Jose Barrios, Marcus Schroeman. Kyle Gibson and just like Seth Lugo. Lance Lynn, back on the Lance Lynn train. Let's go. These don't seem safe to me. The pirates signed Rowdy to Les to a one-year $3.2 million dollar contract, which the name the fit just sounds great. I mean, has there ever been a better pirate named Rowdy Tellez? Ah, old black beard, Rowdy Tellez. Sounds like a pirate. I'm thought of that. Good point. He should start versus right-handed pitching at the least. He was brutal this past season.

Think he was playing through some injuries, but only one year removed from hitting 35 home runs and really good barrel rate. If nothing else, he will play a lot for the pirates. And we just saw them do the same thing with Carlos Santana and then they wound up flipping him and that worked out for them. So I think in very, very deep leagues as like a corner infielder and only type stuff, like he'll have some value Welsh. Any thoughts on Roddy to Les to the Pirates? I think it's a league specific. Yeah, it's like an L only league you're looking at. I'll be very curious to see what they unlock because didn't we also see like Carlos Santana get significantly better once he left? You know, so I'm not, I'm just not really sure what we're going to get out of Rowdy. His bat has

seem to regress pretty significantly. The Ks went up this past year. He hadn't been an over 24K percentage guy since 2019. That went up. He still hits a ball really hard, but he's not in like draft talk. He's a watcher. Watch him early on,

see if the power gets going. Maybe it continues because he will get RBI opportunities. And I'm kind of optimistic about like, he Brian Hayes this year. So if you get a few of those guys, Brian Reynolds, key Brian Hayes, maybe actually there will be more RBI opportunities

than most would expect. Yeah, and Henry Davis, as a potential sleeper, we'll talk about that in just a second. The Nationals signed Dylan Floro to a one-year deal was a very strong reliever from 2020 to 2022, then kind of fell off a cliff this past season, does have 32 career saves. My guess is he won't be part of the closer mix,

but if the Nationals wind up moving on from a Kyle Finnegan or if he struggles or if Hunter Harvey gets hurt again, Floro is just a name where it wouldn't surprise me, if maybe he factors in at some point. I don't think at the start of the season, though. Two devastating injuries out of the Dominican Winter League. First up, Pirates catcher prospect, Andy Rodriguez, will have surgery to repair the UCL

and flexor strain in his right elbow and will miss all of 2024. And apparently injured himself on a swing back on November 13th. I wonder if teams will start to put restrictions on these guys because between Andy Rodriguez and Ronnie Maricio Torres ACL, in the Dominican Winter League. It's just like, I don't know.

I just don't know if they want their players out there kind of playing in games like this, but that's a conversation for another day. There were already rumors Henry Davis was showing up to spring training as a catcher, and I think this injury just solidifies that. Davis' former first overall pick from back in 2021, didn't look so good in his first taste in the majors,

but he crushed it in the minors this year. And I think kind of sets up as like the perfect post-hyped sleeper, Scott, what are your thoughts on? Well, tell me this, Scott. If Henry Davis already had catcher eligibility, where would you slot him in? Because I think he's going to gain that really early on in the season. Yeah, I think he is too.

I think the plan was still for Andy Rodriguez to be the primary catcher and maybe Henry Davis to supplement him behind the plate. So who knows how long it would have taken Henry Davis to regain catcher eligibility. But now it should happen pretty early. I would slot him 20th at catcher in between Tyler Stevenson and Austin Wells. I did move him up in my outfield rankings so that that's now where he is in my overall, Henry Davis and you know

there's certainly upside for him to outperform Tyler Stevenson but that's where I like him and I do think that's the silver lining to this news obviously feel bad for Andy Rodriguez but Henry Roder Henry Rodriguez

Henry Davis has the potential to be even better fantasy option yeah so all right you said catcher 20 21 in that range yeah 20 maybe I'm just taking the glass half full approach. I was thinking even earlier,

I was thinking like the Logan O'Hopi Bo Nailer range. Okay. So you prefer them to Tyler Stevenson, Shea Langaleers, and Luis Camposano, because those are the three I have ahead of that range you're talking about. Campuosano is a good comp too.

I'd say yes to all those names. Stevenson actually like a little bit more, I think, than you do, but yes to every one of those names you just said, Scott. What do you think about the Logan O'Hopi, Boehler range? Is that too high Welsh for Henry Davis? To me, yeah, yeah, I'm not going to do that.

I like both. But the thing that works in favor of Henry Davis is all this talk is about, hey, he's going to be catcher, catcher. He's still going to probably go on the outfield. And days that he's not catching, he's still going to get more games than a normal catcher. And that's the thing that we love. That's the thing, Dalton Marshall all over again.

I've always been impressed with Henry Davis, even though the swing and miss is a problem. He showed that off in the AFL when I saw him. But huge hard hit numbers, the guy can run. And he's a total gamer. think he can do both of those and get more at bats than the average catcher. So maybe I'm making too much about it. I'll take Bo Nailer over him.

Maybe he is closer to Logan O'Hoppy. In my mind, they're the end of like that tier and he's the start of the next tier. That's how I see it. All right. Ronnie and Mauricio, as I mentioned, was diagnosed with a torn ACL. We'll miss the entire 2024 season, which sucks, obviously. Suffered the injury on a stolen base attempt where he tried to stop suddenly and he came up lame. It was obviously a non-contact injury.

there were reports that Maricio and Brett Beatty would be battling it out for the third base job. And now, Scott, it looks like it's Beatty's job to lose. The early ADP is 344.7. And my guess is that will shoot up quite a bit for Brett Beatty. Oh, I don't know. Third base is a pretty deep position and he hasn't proven much at the major league level. I still think there's a lot of upside there. But, yeah, I don't think he's going to be drafted in most 12-team leagues still.

it would be my guess, not unless he starts going off in spring training. I was going to have, I was shaping up to have so much Ronnie Maricio, though. He was like going to be my default middle infield pick. Maybe this injury saves me from myself since it sounded like they weren't so interested in playing him at second base. But, but yeah, that's a bummer for me. Last news item I wanted to mention here, and a pretty unique one just kind of came out of nowhere, at least for me. I don't know, maybe well, she heard about it beforehand, but Jeff Pass.

and reported that this spring will feature the first ever spring breakout, which is going to be a showcase of the best prospects who will play in spring training games together from March 14th to 17th, which sounds awesome. I think it's an amazing idea. You know, I think now more than ever, fans are more in tune with prospects and the hype and getting excited about seeing young players play, so why not showcase them in the spring? And I think it's a great idea. Welsh, any thoughts on it?

And did you know anything about it? Because it just kind of came out of nowhere. I mean, I didn't know they were going to do this, but this has been happening. I actually tweeted about this over Passon because the Padres and the Mariners have done this for years. And I used to tell the story that, you know, when no one knew Julio. And I went to at Peoria Sports Complex where they both, the Mariners and Padres play. Every year, they played this annual game in spring training where it was only the top prospects. And Julio was there.

and he threw out somebody in third base and everyone would nod, but no one knew him. After the game, I grabbed him. And I was like, Julio, that was insane. That was crazy.

Again, this is 18-year-old, and I'm like, that arm was crazy. And he looked at me and he was like, they don't know. They don't know. And then two years later,

when I caught up with him again, because I've interviewed him and stuff, and so he recognized me. And we talked about, because he was the biggest prospect in the world. And I was like, do you remember our, they don't know?

And he's like, they know. And we both joked about that. They know now. situation. So all of that fun little anecdotal thing aside, this has been going on and that was probably a testing ground to this. And it's the most clear thing on the planet. They should promote the young players. That's the excitement. They have incentivized teams to bring them up. They're now showcasing them in better spots. They're going to do some other cool, unique things. And I think

this is fantastic. And you can go between, I think, March 14th and 17th to any of the ballparks in spring training, Florida or Arizona. And you can experience this. And you know, I'll be there in March. It's awesome too, because imagine the hype, right, for draft season, where if we have just prospect games going on, guys like Jackson Holiday and Junior Caminero, and they're just smoking home runs left and right in these games. Like the helium in draft season is going to be insane. So it's a lot of fun and definitely looking forward to that.

We're going to wrap there for Scott and the Welsh. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye. Bye.