Fantasy Baseball Today - Early 2024 Starting Pitcher Rankings Part 2 with Paul Sporer & Justin Mason! (12/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 19, 2023

Welcome to the podcast, Paul Sporer and Justin Mason! Before we get into the rankings, let's learn the history of THE GLOB (2:43)! ... Max Scherzer had back surgery and could miss the first half of 2024 (9:38). ... Let's get into the rankings, starting with Jesus Luzardo (18:57). ... Who is our favorite from Eury Perez, Grayson Rodriguez, Bobby Miller and Tanner Bibee (22:26)? ... Will we target any of Merrill Kelly, Mitch Keller and Justin Verlander (30:20)? ... Is time to buy back in on Dylan Cease (36:00)? ... Why is Joe Ryan being drafted so high (41:56)? ... Cristian Javier and Hunter Greene both have a very wide range of outcomes (50:22). ... Could Shane Bieber, Carlos Rodon and Yu Darvish be The Redeem Team (55:30)? ... We wrap up with news on Lourdes Gurriel and others (1:00:40). To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hey there. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, December 19th.

I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White, and not one but two. Special guests joining us that will get to Injustice. a moment. Today on the show, Scott's early SP rankings part two. Last week, we revealed his top 25, and today we'll try and get through the rest of his top 50. And we did have some big news since the last time we were on.

We had an emergency podcast for Tyler Glass now that you can go back and listen to or watch on YouTube. But we got some big news on Max Scherzer and some smaller moves to discuss. So we'll break those down later on as well. First, for about six months now, you've heard Scott referred to the. the middle class of starting pitchers as the glob, there is only one pair of humans qualified enough to help us break down this part of the pitcher rankings.

You know them, you love them. From The Sleeper and the Bus podcast, Paul Sporrer, and Justin Mason. What's going on, Jens? How you doing? I'm doing very well. Thanks for having us on. Gotcha. I was going to say, I'm not qualified to talk about the glob from a pitching sense.

I am just from a T-shirt perspective. He's the face of it. He's the face of it. These guys are the Glob fathers. They're not, like, I'm the usurper here, stealing the term from them. These guys were apparently talking about the glob back in 2019, the height of the juice ball era. You'll notice Justin, if you're watching on YouTube, he has that sign back on his wall, the Globbery robbery in reference to me stealing.

stealing the term. And, you know, that's... I didn't know I was stealing it at the time when it was pointed out to me that these guys were referring to the glob at starting pitcher a couple years before I was. It sounded familiar and it's possible

that subconsciously, that's why I chose that term because I had heard it to describe some pitching phenomenon in the past. And to be fair, I guess I'm just going to get into the whole, like, you know, the mea culpa now, I guess. But I do think what you were describing as the glob in 2019 was a slightly different phenomenon

from what I referred to as the glob now, because Frankie referenced, I'm calling the middle class at starting pitcher the glob. It's really more like the middle class has merged with the lower class, like to form one big glob. When the glob in 2019, I think what you guys were calling the glob in 2019 was what I kept calling the absence of a middle class during the juice ball year where there were just a bunch of studs at the top and then just garbage. And then everyone was the same.

Yeah. Yeah. I think that's exactly right. Right. Right. So now it's not like that anymore. It's just there, there, there, there's just so much mush in, in the middle of the starting pitching rankings now that's not as bad as what you call the glob in 2019, but it's not that good either.

It's just very large. It's very good. I think that makes a lot of sense. And, you know, I've always chalked it up to parallel thinking. Even when people were tweeting us and like, they're stealing it from you. I was like, there's no way it's being stolen with any malicious intent. And I was not interested in the in the high school drama that some people wanted to flare up. I was like, nah, we're chill with them.

We hang out with Frank in Arizona every every, every fall. And we see Scott, you know, at industry drafts and whatnot, there is no beef. So I'm glad to be on and talk about it. For me, it was a way of just not getting too hung up on rankings, too, right? Like, don't get freaked out over pitcher 38 versus pitcher 62. That feels like a big difference, but it's really not when you really break them down. But I just love pitcher 38, and I'm not as keen on pitcher 62. Scott might love 62 and hate 38, so he reverses them.

And it was just trying to show those narrow margins, even though the ranking might be 20, 30, 40 picks different. the talent isn't that far. Well, I mean, from that perspective, what we're talking about with the Glob is very similar. And as we get into breaking down my pitching rankings, you know, I'm comparing them

to some early ADP results on NFBC and it's like, wow, I'm a weirdo. But it's like, I am fixating so much on strikeouts this year, just because I think that's, if a pitcher is going to distinguish himself from the Glob,

that's going to be, that's going to be his egg exit strategy from the glove, I feel like. Because you can't bank on wins either, right? Like, wins is another way. They'll differentiate themselves eventually, but we don't always know where those are going to come from. Even ERA and WIP.

Like, I, I, part of what I noticed what, and maybe you guys can tell me if you seen the same thing, but part of what I noticed this past year, and I don't know exactly what the reason is behind it, if it, I assume the combination of various rule changes and sticky substances, crackdowns, etc. Has just created so much more volatility from start to start. I feel like also there's kind of a snowball effect from the shift ban and the new base running rules. There's so much more. So many more base runners, so much more activity on the base runners that when things start

going bad for a pitcher, they just spiral out of control. That's where you get these eight run outings even for purportedly, good pitchers. Yep, there were a lot more duds, and I think nobody exemplifies that better than Spencer Strider last year. Still had brilliant skills. Every ER indicator said that he was a god, but he had, what, a 386 ERA or something to that effect? Obviously, he's way better than that, but homers were a problem. He seemed to take his foot off the pedal a little bit against weaker teams, too, but that's a little bit different than what we're talking about here. But I totally see the snowball effect that you were talking about. And nothing ruins an ERA quicker than

homers. You start giving up homers, and if they're multi-run homers, your ERA is going to go up. Justin, as one of the glob fathers here, is there anything else that you'd like to add just on like glob game theory or the state of starting pitching while we're up here at the top? I think it's a good thing to remember

that the glob, just like the glob, the glob of pitchers always is moving, right? So year to year, it's going to start and end at a different point. And I think this year it's a pretty interesting glob, right? Like there's a lot of guys in that 27, seven to like 45 range that I really kind of enjoy and I like. And I could see myself like picking from a lot of those kind of guys.

But that, you know, in years past it was like, the glob was like, oh, gross. And this year the glob is a little bit more enticing. Yeah, I don't think there's like a similar theme among the glob. There's obviously lots of different names. There's some pictures that are quote unquote, innings eaters, maybe they're higher floor guys. You know, you're Merrill Kelly's,

are Jose Barrios' types. But then you have guys that have high upside, but come with injury risk, like Carlos Rodon or maybe even like U. Darvish as a bounceback candidate if you think he could stay healthy. So there's all different kinds of shapes and sizes within the glob,

and we'll get to those. Again, we're here with Paul Sporer and Justin Mason. If you don't know who they are, you probably live under a rock. But they do great work over at the Sleeper and the Bus podcast. You could find Paul's work over on Fanggrass. You could follow him on Twitter. X at Sporer.

That's S-P-O-R. also content designer for OOTP Baseball. And you can find Justin Mason everywhere. The owner of Friends with Fantasy Benefits, the creator of the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. If you hear us talking about that industry-wide draft that comes around in February, Justin is the creator of said draft.

I guess multiple drafts. TGFBI. Yes, TGFBI is what we usually call it. Across the industry. Obviously, writer podcast are for FangRast, writer for Fantasy Pros. Make sure you follow Justin on Twitter at Justin Mason FWFB. Let's quickly just start off with this news

and get it out of the way because it was a pretty big one that came out on Friday afternoon. Max Scherzer will be sidelined until June or July after undergoing surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back and apparently attempted several conservative treatments earlier in the off season, but the pain persisted for him.

We know it's kind of been an issue on and off from the past couple years back, neck issues. Obviously had the innings limited this past season. as well. Scott, you had Scherzer as your SP23. Obviously, he's going to drop down a lot in your rankings. Have you thought about where he's going to slot in yet how far he's falling down those rankings? Why, yes, I have. I've moved him down my rankings. I have moved him to 75th in my rankings. Yeah. Which is behind Brandon fought Luis Severino, Kent and Maeda. So some guys with some upsides. but and ahead of guys like Michael Waka, Seth Lugo, Lance Lynn,

ones who I perceive is not having so much upside. So he's kind of, as usually happens when somebody drops because of an injury, he kind of becomes a tier divider for me there. A little bit of 24 spots ahead of Clayton Kershaw, who is also looking at a mid-season return. So that's, I don't know, I guess I just have more confidence in Max Scherzer's going to be Max Scherzer when he gets back. but, you know, a big drop in the rankings, clearly.

Before this news came out, the ADP on Scherzerzer was 130.6 over at the NFBC. There were three drafts over the weekend. The ADP has dropped to 243.3. So over 100 spots, which obviously, I think makes sense. Paul, if the ADP settles there for Scherzer, again, a June, July expected return. Does 243 sound like the right spot for Scherzer? Too late? What do you think? It's not awful.

I'm not paying it though. You know, in draft champions, which is mostly what's being drafted right now, that's 50 round draft and hold. I can't take a guy that's guaranteed three months out, minimum. Like, you need every spot. I know it feels like with 50 players, I can be freewheeling and take an injury risk here and a couple of prospects here. You can take like three or four max on gambles like that, max.

And I'm talking like prospects who are guaranteed not to be up until the summer or an injured player like this. I don't take any of the injured players. I take maybe a couple prospects, but I need guys that can play. And I'd rather take, you know, I'm trying to think of a pitcher that I would never say that I'd be taking ahead of him at this point. You know, I'd rather take like Jose Quintana over him. I take Jack Flaherty and Detroit over Max Scherzer. I'm not taking Max Scher.

If he comes back and is awesome for the second half, hat tipped whoever held on to him, I will be using that roster spot in my leagues for the first three months. months to make up the value of whatever I think they might get. So love Max Scherzer, root for him, hope for the best. No shot is on any team for me in 24. And interestingly enough, the Rangers also signed Tyler Malley. That came out Thursday evening. So before the Scherzer news broke, I had to imagine they had some kind of inclination on Scherzerzer and still managed to sign Tyler Malley, who is returning from Tommy John surgery. He had last this May, this past May, likely to miss the entire first half. So the Rangers the first half of the season, it looks like

they'll try and survive with Nathan Avaldi, John Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, maybe some combination of like Owen White, Cole Wynn, Jack Leiter as their SP5. Maybe they go out and, you know, sign a smaller name, a smaller signing, whatever it might be to kind of just help them out in the first half of the season. But then in the second half, if they make it that far, you're looking at Jacob deGrom, Scher, and Tyler Malley potentially getting back. Justin, I just thought it was interesting to add Tyler Malley to an already kind of injury depleted rotation there in Texas.

Yeah, I think it's just kind of like a little bonus pick. I can't imagine they're expecting much from him in 2024. I think that's more a matter of like, hey, maybe it could be a nice little reclamation project for 2025, maybe pitch out of the bullpen for us late in the year in 2024. But I'm with Paul. Like all these guys are off my board. Like I just, I'm not going to draft any of them. Let me see if I can contextualize this a little bit for the audience, because

Let's say it's a league with, I don't know, you got three or four I L spots available to you. Does that change the thinking? Not so much on Malley because I'm not sure we seem at all in 2024 personally, but I'm Max Scherzer, given the upside he has there. Three or four IL spots become pretty full pretty quickly, especially with, you know, the one rule change we didn't mention at the top of the show is, you know, them lessening that pitch clock, right? and they're talking, but even lessening a little bit more. And that, it feels like it led to a lot more pitching injuries. I just don't want to invite, especially in a league where I'm getting three IL thoughts, four IOS spots.

If we're playing a league like towers, you know, that has unlimited IL spots, sure. I'll throw the dart. Why not? I still wouldn't pay that price, though. I want the price to come down a bit more on Shurzer closer to 300. You start to throw in some I L spots. I'm interested more so, but it's still going to have to be a situation where, You know, I'd probably take a Luis Severina who has his own injury concerns over him.

You know, I just think I'm going to find a lot of other avenues that I'm going to prefer over Scherzer this year. And I'm just not going to take that risk. If I'm speaking to like the 12 team player, though, the draft ends, I mean, if it's head to head league, it ends around pick 250. If it's a road to league. If he's your last pick and you got four IL spots, I'm not going to, I'm not going to clown anybody for that. That's your gamble. I might have my own gamble. He's also old too, so I'm a little bit nervous about what he gets.

But as far as the concept of taking a last pick in four something IL spots on a pitcher who's been an ace, I can get behind that. Getting back to the idea of the glob, like I am looking for pitchers who can distinguish them, who could actually be impactful. And Scherzer can. Right, exactly. Shurzer can. I understand if you don't have IL spots available in league, that's a long time to use a bench spot. and I probably wouldn't invest in shares are there either. But if you do, I think I'd like to have them around for the second half,

if it doesn't cost me much of anything. All right. I think I would rather have DeGrom. And this is coming from a person who does not draft Tommy John returnees. One, DeGrom's upside through the roof, right? We also know that when guys come back from Tommy John, they're usually ready to go once they're back, right? Like, they may not have the same command and control initially,

but they can throw. We know, like, there's a pretty good success rate on Tommy John reconstruction surgery. We have no idea how bad this back issue is. And backs are scary to begin with. I think there's a good chance. Like, Scherzer isn't the same, even if he does come back. And there's obviously the chance he doesn't come back. So I think if I'm going to take that strategy, give me the top tier upside of Jacob de Grom

over a guy like Max Scherzer. All right. Well, let's get into Scott's. early starting pitcher rankings part two. Again, we spoke about the top 25. Last week, we'll try and get through 25 more today. We are kind of cheating because I think where we're picking this back up, SP26 is Hazips Lizardo.

Correct me, Scott, but I don't think Lazzardo is technically in the glob yet. Maybe like once we get to that point in the rankings, you can kind of distinguish it. But Lazzardo feels like he's ahead of the glob. You know how it is with globs. They take the form of their container, right? They don't have a distinct shape. They're malleable. I am inconclusive on where the glob begins exactly.

It's, it's, I've made the, I've made the case before that I want to draft what, ideally, obviously, four of my top 25, which may be hard to do in those 15 teamers. But that's, that's ideally what I'm looking to do. So I guess I'm saying Luzardo is not, has not receded into the glob, but he was pretty, volatile in 2023 he was subject to the whims of the glob I think mainly why I distinguish

him is for that strikeout upside which is considerable massive I think the essence of a glob is that you kind of decide where it begins right like that's the whole point is to take a little bit more agency over where you want your guys to go get them within the

glob other people might take the other round and say well it's a glob of similarness I'm going to of similarity I'm going to wait for it to give me something, I attack with the glob. Okay, I see 38 guys that look the same. Let me get the four that I really like, even if that's pulling one up from SP 70 into SP 50, because that's where I want him. And I don't want anybody to take him out from under me. So I attack when I'm in a glob situation. So yeah, you can kind of decide where it begins. For some, Lazardo's risk might be too much that he's recessed into the glob.

For Scott, he's right at the top, maybe the king of the glob. So I think that's kind of the whole concept in a nutshell there is that you get to kind of decide where it goes and how you approach it. Let me put some numbers here on Lazardo. He finally managed to stay healthy this past season, 358 ERA, 121 whip. Kind of felt like he was, you know, wearing down in the second half. I know the control kind of escaped him in that second half and did throw a career high innings with 178 and two-thirds. So perhaps, again, there was a factor of that later on in the year. Justin, something that Scott and I spoke about recently, I think we were talking about Jorge Soler where last year I profited so much on Solair that I don't want to

pay the increased price. I kind of feel the same way on Lazardo that I was in on Losardo last year when his ADP was around 150. Now he's up around 90. So you do have to pay kind of that premium inside the top 100. What do you think about his price tag and just kind of that mindset of, all right, well, I profited last year. Do I want to pay the higher price again this season? I totally understand people who go look at that strikeout upside. I had like he, you know, and the overall line like wasn't bad, right? Like the overall line was actually kind of fine. Plus you get those strikeouts.

When I'm drafting a starting pitcher within the top 100 picks, I'm typically looking for my safest floor. Like I want a guy that obviously any pitcher can get hurt any time, doesn't matter. But injury aside, I want a guy that I'd feel really, really confident about, like the skills are going to stay consistent, that they're not coming in with a pre-agreact. existing injury. And I just worry about Luzardo being able to repeat the mechanics, not blow up, not give up home runs. You look at what he did from August on. He had a 453 ERA on 130 whip. Still got a lot of strikeouts. The strikeouts were great. But like there are seven

earned run outings and six earned run outings. And I just hate that. Especially if you play in like any sort of head-to-head format. He's one of those guys that can win you or lose you a week. And Those are the kind of guys I tend to stay away from. Lazardo, again, Scott's SP26 in the rankings. 27 and 28, by the way, are Zach Eflin and Logan Gilbert. We spoke about them on last Tuesdays podcast as part of our starting pitcher recap. Obviously, they just had fine seasons. If you want, you can go back and listen to that.

Let's take our first break when we return. We're going to get into a really, really fun group of young starting pitchers, which includes Yuri Perez, Bobby Miller, Grayson Rodriguez, Tanner Bybee, who's, for some, the ADP much higher than where Scott has them ranked. So we'll talk about that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's jump into the rest of Scott's rankings and SP 29 through 32. We have Yuri Perez, Bobby Miller, Grayson Rodriguez, and Tanner Bobby. Now, the ADP on these guys is very interesting because Yuri Perez currently the SP 19 off the board. Grace and Rodriguez is the SP 20. So much higher than where Scott has them rank, I think

people are maybe willing to take on that risk for very high upside pitchers. Bobby Miller, the SP 23 off the board. And then Tanner Bybee, you've got to drop down a little bit. He's currently the 33rd starting pitcher off the board. So kind of find that interesting that he's not kind of lumped in with this group. Maybe just doesn't have that same perceived upside as some of these names. Paul, we'll start with you. Who is your favorite from this group?

Yuri Perez, Bobby Miller, Grayson Rodriguez, and Tanner Bybee. It's definitely Bobby Miller for me. I see true, full-on ace upside that while it might not fully develop this year, I'm willing to take that shot that it does and then just kind of, you know, see where he goes. I think he's kind of their next Walker Bueller. Obviously, let's hope he doesn't get hurt like Bueller, although he probably will because kind of every pitcher does.

But I really do love Bobby Miller. Let's just hope he doesn't get hurt this year. Pick 75 is obviously expensive, but he has everything. And so I think as a potential frontliner, he's the guy I want. He's on a great team as well. So is Grayson Rodriguez. And Yuri Perez is on a decent team.

Bobby's on a decent team, but obviously Miller's on the best of the bunch. And while we can't predict wins, you still know that the best chance at them is going to be on the best team. So I like Bobby Miller quite a bit, and I'm willing to pay the premium. Yeah, when I started diving into Bobby Miller, there was just so much to like about him. He got better in the second half. And it kind of changed with a pitch mix change that he had where he dropped the slider usage and raise the curve ball. I mean, the curve ball and the change up look like they are like potential elite pitches for him. obviously throws extremely hard.

Bobby Miller fifth in Stuff Plus, according to Enosaris' metric there. So I do agree, man. There is lots to like about Bobby Miller. Scott, does it surprise you that the market is so much higher on guys like Yuri Perez? Again, he's SP19 and ADP, Grayson Rodriguez, SP 20.

I know that some people want that upside, but, you know, there's still a lot of people like Justin who values that floor. And if we're being honest, Yuri Perez and Grayson Rodriguez might not have that floor. Well, and selling out for upside at starting pitchers, it's kind of my whole thing

this year, so that the market could be higher on Uri Perez than I am. It kind of makes me wonder who they're overlooking. Yeah, I mean, I'd have to sit down with it and figure it out. Maybe Joe Musgrove because he's coming back from a shoulder injury, but that's just one. That's not

all the names that, you know, Uri Perez is ahead of in the ADP. I do, so it's more Grayson Rodriguez, I guess, that surprises me. He's going that early because Yuri Perez, you at least see the big strikeout upside.

Well, Grayson Rodriguez definitely looked a lot better when he came back from the miners, but a lot of it had to do with strike throwing. And it's not like, the whiff rate was better. The whiff rate showed the potential for him to become a strikeout pitcher, but he wasn't actually getting a lot of strikeout pitcher,

a lot of strikeouts, and that's why I have Bobby Miller ahead of Grace and Rodriguez. So I have Yuri Perez of this group of four sophomores. I have Yuri Perez number one because I see clearly the biggest strikeout potential there. But I also favor Miller over Rodriguez at least because of, I don't think there. Between the two, I don't think there is a clear standout in terms of strikeout upside. And Miller, that last month of the season, he was going six, seven innings with consistency. he had a 14% swinging strike rate in the final month. So that, I mean, that's a leap.

He has the five-pitch arsenal, a guy who throws that hard. You know, I kind of expected Bobby Miller to be somebody who comes up and is throwing his fastball 60% of the time at first because that's just what young kids who throw hard tend to do. But he was mixing in this five-pitch arsenal and you really saw him take off in September. So I'm with Paul at least on the idea that Bobby Miller, I prefer him to Grace and Rodriguez. but Yuri Perez, I think if you are going to distinguish one from this quartet, I think he would be the one to do because of the strikeout upside. I'm probably going to have those two close to back-to-back Miller and Perez.

So I want to co-sign the Yuri Love. I think maybe the team context is going to be the little bit of a tiebreaker there because I do believe that Bobby Miller can get into the strikeouts to where he's pushing a 30% rate, a la Perez, who had a 29% mark in his 91 innings. But yeah, I do believe that they are the class of that quartet there. And I do think Bobby's interesting as kind of the cheaper one, but I'll let Justin jump in here on his thoughts at the top end there. I just want to get in real quick.

Yuri Perez is swinging strike rate. You know, I gave Bobby Miller in September 14%. Yuri Perez, his whole time in the majors, 15.7%. That's disgusting. He was 1920 last year. Yeah. Or 20. Excuse me.

20 all year. But still, age 20 season, that's banana. The guy isn't even legal to drink until April, so think about that on Yuri Perez. Justin, your favorite from this group, and maybe why Tanner Bybee is so much lower than the rest of these guys? I think people look at Bybee as a guy that doesn't have the upside of these other guys, right? Like, Bybee's not going to turn into an SP1 this year. He's not going to have, like, this is like the McClan tier from a few years ago, right? Where like, you know, I think it was like McClan, Manoa and all these guys were going just around pick 100.

and then guys just jumped up, right? Had these massive breakouts and they were... Trevor Rogers. Yeah, exactly. It was one and a half. And so I think people are looking at this group of like, oh, some of these groups, some of the guys in this group are going to be league winners, who are they? And no one's going to pick Bybee because he doesn't have the strikeout rate that these other guys have.

He's not on a team that I think is going to be extremely competitive. I think they're going, you know, they'll be competitive, but they're not going to be like a powerhouse team in the way that we definitely see the Dodgers as, and we could see maybe like the Orioles potentially as, you know, coming off of the season they just had. But again, we go back to what I said earlier. Like, I think, well, I love all four of these guys. I would draft all four of these guys, no problem. The guy that's going to end up on more of my teams than not and already has,

as I have three drafts in the books, and I believe I had Tanner Bybee already. on two of them is Bybee. Like he, he does everything you want. I think he's the most polished of all four of these guys. He's got a full arsenal. He doesn't walk guys. He doesn't give up home runs.

He's on a team that is going to win games. Maybe not as many as the Dodgers. Maybe he's not as many as the Orioles. But the Guardians are going to win games in the Central because the Central's awful. So, Bivey's the guy that I'm going to end up with the most. I agree with Scott and Paul that if all things being equal, I really, really love Bobby Miller.

I do see a big step. I also love Yuri Perez. Like I think, you know, and Yuri Perez and Bobby Miller both ended up on teams for me. I have no problem. This is like a little mini glob. I have no problem drafting two or three of these guys if I can't. Yeah, they're so enticing too.

I know, Justin, we were in one gladiator draft together already. And I took Yuri Perez as my SP2. You took Bobby Miller, I think is your SP3 in that draft. So we both wound up with a share of these young guys and obviously lots to like there. This next trio from 33 through 35, maybe this is where you start to see it like that traditional glob that we've talked so much about. Because 33 starts with Merrill Kelly for Scott, followed by Mitch Keller and Justin Verlander. And specifically with this trio, it doesn't really feel like any of these three are ones that I'm going to target, but it's more so a group that

like if they fall past ADP by like 20 spots, maybe I'll start to consider them. Is there anyone here that kind of stands out to you? Are they a target for you? Or is it that, again, just try and wait for them to fall to you to the right spot? Merrill Kelly, Mitch Keller, Justin Verlander. I mean, I'll probably take JV at 117. He's like my favorite pitcher ever. And he's still good too, right?

I'm not going to let Homerism make me make bad picks, or at least I don't think they're bad. And so I do still believe in him. I think he's kind of a unicorn with how good he's been at this age. Of course, he still did get hurt, right? Like he got hurt a couple years ago, so it's not like, he never gets hurt or anything. But I still believe in Verlander's skills for sure.

I think Keller has started to show some interesting improvements, and maybe we could see another step from him this year, but I won't seek him out. And Merrill Kelly, I respect what he did, and I like this player type. I find it undervalued in the market, so I'm not afraid of it when everyone else is going for the flashy thing. I think sometimes getting kind of the steady,

any boring guy to supplement your Bobby Miller gamble and your Yuri Perez gamble, insofar as they are gambles. I think it's nice. But of those three, it's really going to be Verlander primarily for me. And then I might fall into Kelly or Keller in the position that you mentioned where they fall past ADP. And I say, you know what?

Now is a good spot. But I probably not going to attack them at ADP like I would Verlander around the 115, 120 range. This is a really interesting group because you've got Merrill Kelly here who transcended the glob last year. I mean, Merrill Kelly was as consistent as they come. He obviously didn't have a track record of that. I mean, he was pretty good in 2022, but the fact he got even better in 2023, I don't think anybody saw it coming. He's going to be 35 this upcoming year as Merrill Kelly. And he drastically outperformed both his expected ERA and FIPP.

The expected ERA was 413, the FIPP 385. So I think people for the second straight year are factoring in a lot of regression for Merrill Kelly. At a time when, you know, who can you trust to have less than that? than a, let's look at his fit, a 385 ERA. Who can you trust to have less than that? So I'm not, like, if I don't have four starting pitchers at this point, and certainly in those deeper leagues, it's going to be a lot. I'm totally fine with taking Merrill Kelly.

And I'm also fine with taking Mitch Keller, who I think is, their names are so similar, right? Merrill Kelly and Mitch Keller. And yet I think what happened to them in 2023 couldn't have been any more different, where Merrill Kelly was as steady as they come. but the underlying numbers never really justified it. While Mitch Keller, he might have been the biggest victim of the snowball effect that we saw with pitchers this past year. It's between him and Aaronola, where if you look at Mitch Keller's good starts and you look at his bad starts,

two-thirds of the time he looks like an ace, but then he has these disastrous starts that leaves them with a 421 ERA. If you take out Mitch Keller's four worst starts from 2023, his ERA drops from 421 to 313. I find things like that very valuable. I call game logging, like getting in there. Like, you can't take them away. We know that. But I think it really underscores what they could be

if they can clean up those bomb out starts. And you talked about it at the outset about how that hit a lot of guys this year. And I bet there's a good handful of guys that if you could take out two to five starts, it would really change their outlook. And I know you can do that for a lot of guys, but, and again, it's not to say that they don't count, but it's to underscore that like, hey, Keller's probably a tweak from becoming a dude. Well, I mean, look, at the midway point, Mitch Keller was arguably the most valuable pitcher

in fantasy. So, like, there was a case to be made. He was already there. And then he got hit with, in the second half, four starts with seven earn runs or more. Those are the four starts I'm removing to get that ERA down to, to 313. But my point is, yes, that his good starts, Mitch Keller's good starts,

are the kind of starts that are only accessible to true aces. All six of his starts in May, he had eight strikeouts or more. All six of them. He had... That's incredible. A bunch of seven-inning starts. Let's see.

How many did he have? How many seven-inning starts with two hits or fewer did he have? Two. Yeah, three, three. He had, Mitch Keller had three starts with seven innings or more and two hits or fewer, and they didn't necessarily coincide

with the big strikeout starts he had. So he had a lot of, like, ace caliber starts, did Mitch Keller. But then he had those disasters that made the final line look kind of meh. I think he's gray here. Like, is there fourth starting pitcher? Like I said, I don't know exactly where the glob begins for me,

but I kind of like in some of the pitchers in this range. I think they're very close to running out, but I'm okay with both Merrill Kelly and Mitch Keller here. And you're ahead of market on both of them too. So my guess is if things kind of stay this way, Scott, you will wind up with a lot of those two pitchers because Merrill Kelly, your SP 33, and he's the 42nd starting pitcher off the board right now. So again, you're ahead there. And Mitch Keller, your SP 34, and he's the 43rd starting pitcher. So quite a bit ahead on both of those names. Justin, I'll give you the first word on this next group here,

because I want to keep things moving. There's so many names to get to. 36 through 40 in Scott's rankings, Dylan Seas, Gavin Williams, Chris Sale, Michael King, and Joe Ryan. I want to start right there at the top because Dylan Sees, number 36, Murphy's Law, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. And that was basically his entire 2023 followed up a huge breakout season with a 458 ERA and a 142 whip. Obviously the strikeouts were still massive. 214 strikeouts all but a certainty to be traded this offseason. It feels like Dylan Sees.

we've already heard his name rumored. But things went incredibly wrong. I mean, the walks were up. They already were a problem. The strikeout rate was down. The swinging strike rate was down. The hard contact was way up once again. Justin, what do you think about the early price tag here on Dillan C's?

He's the SP 31 off the board. Scott's 36th ranked starting pitcher. I just can't do it. I mean, I've been out on Dillan Seas for quite a while, just the volatility. And I think there were a lot of people who drafted Dillan Cs last. year that were doing some early April victory laps and then pulled up lane about a They probably learned from you on that. Yeah, exactly.

Well, April is when you should do your victory laps. And don't you forget that. But it's just like he's just so volatile. And I mean, maybe if he ends up in a really good pitchers park, if he ended up in like Baltimore, you know, maybe if he ends up with the Dodgers because the Dodgers just seem to know how to fix every single starting pitcher. I will feel a little bit better about drafting him, but it's too much volatility for where he goes.

And I just, I'm not a big fan of drafting that volatility early on. And I just, I think that it's part of who he is. I think he's electric when he's on. And when he's not on, the ball is going all over the place in terms of missing the plate or over the fence. Can you imagine if the Braves wind up with Dylan Seas? I mean, between him and Strider's mustache, I mean, they would have to sign Paul Spore, right?

I'm at that point. I become a super fan at that point. I start putting Rogan on my face to try to make my mustache thicker so I can compete with them. I'm already a huge strider and C's fan too, so I'd be in because I disagree with Justin. I'm buying on C's. I know you didn't ask me, but like for me, he's that guy that I'm always going to buy at the low end, right? Like, Tyler O'Neill is kind of like this as far as a hitter goes. Couldn't pay me to draft him after the breakout year.

just because of his history, the ups and downs, his injury volatility, his skills volatility. I'm always going to buy on the down swing with C's. I tried to jump the mark a little bit, hoping that the Dodgers were going to get them, and they signed, well, they signed Shoah, which obviously doesn't preclude them from getting CIS because of pitching. But I was nervous that, like, okay, are they still going to go out and make a big deal here? Or no, that was a Glass Now trade. That would make more sense of why that bothered me. Like literally the minute after I drafted CIS, they announced a Glass Now,

trade. They could still get him, though. And if Atlanta does anywhere, cease has to be traded. I think he is the right pitching coach away from just becoming an ace, too. Yes, he has volatility currently. I don't think he has to live in that up-down world. I think the right guy can fix him and turn him into an absolute stud the way we saw in 2022, but more on a permanent basis, especially if the walks can be quelled a little bit. I like cease because of the cost. I think, you know, last year it was being drafted, top 10, top 12 overall. Yeah. Yeah. Now he, he, this is, I think this is the border of the glob for me, actually.

So we get past Meryl Kelly Mitch Keller, Justin Verlander, and then Dylan Cese. I think Dylan Cs is the last pitcher who I realistically see a high end outcome for. And it's not that hard to see it. I mean, he was amazing in 2022, A.L. Tsai Young runner up. But even if that doesn't happen. So, like, we talked about the volatility of Mitch Keller, who I rank a little ahead of Cease, also volatile. Cease's volatility, I think, is a little more ingrained because of that. There's a clear skill issue there with the walks, even as good as he was in 2022.

That was an issue. I don't think that's going away with Cease. But on the other hand, as yucky as his 2023 was, he had 214 strikeouts. And so that forgives. A lot of sins for me, strikeouts. And I kind of talked about this already, and maybe I'll just kind of give you guys the whole broad picture of what I'm looking to do at starting pitcher in 2024.

And I don't think I'm like breaking news or anything, but I'm just trying to be more disciplined about the approach of, okay, at a time when pitching is unpredictable, not just year to year, but start to start because of that snowball effect we talked about. And I'm not sure where anybody's ERA is going to end up really. The one thing I feel like I can bank on is strikeouts. If I focus on strikeouts above all else, I will do well in that category unless I just get smashed with injuries, which is always a possibility. But performance-wise, I should dominate strikeouts if I sell out for strikeouts.

And it's very likely just by virtue of drafting a bunch of bat missers in an environment where base runners are bad news that they'll end up with the good ERA and whip. as we've seen from Dillon C's in the past. So I'm kind of counting strikeouts double when I'm assessing things for, I haven't come up with an exact formula or anything, but I'm emphasizing strikeouts so much over everything else that somebody likes C's who, yes, I see the flaws in him, but you can just, you can pencil them in for 200 plus strikeouts.

And that in this price range feels great to me. The other name I want to talk. That makes a ton of sense. Sorry, go ahead. All good. The other name I wanted to highlight here quickly was Joe Ryan, who Scott has at SP40, and the early ADP is SP 26 off the board.

So this is actually one of the pitchers, and especially within the top 40, when you see this big of a disparity, you're like, okay, someone's either going to be really right or really wrong on Joe Ryan, and he just finished a year, 451 ERA, 117 whip.

We know the K-to-Walk ratio is amazing, 24.3%. That was second best to only Spencer Strider, the swinging strike rate, seventh best among starting pitchers, with at least 160 innings. Justin, I'll throw this point. your way. The problem for me with Joe Ryan, as great as the strikeouts, the K-minus walk

rate, there is a clear issue here with home runs. And there has been consistently, he allows a lot of fly balls, 1.78 home runs per nine this past season. And there have been kind of like whisperers about hitters starting to figure out this rising fastball and kind of getting underneath it. And we saw something similar happened with Christian Javier, which we'll get to in just a little bit. I can't do it. I'm not going to do the Joe Ryan thing. Like if I'm going to take a shot on a guy on the twin staff who gives up a lot of fly balls. I'll just take like Bailey over like 75 picks later or something like that. But what do you what do you think about Joe Ryan here? Pretty big disparity between Scott's ranking and the early ADP. Yeah, I think he's

going too high. I see like where Ryan could like completely turn things around and become the elite pitcher that I think a lot of people including I think my co-host Paul Spores thought he might turn into at some point. But you're talking about a guy that in the second half had a 2.63 homer per nine. That is outrageous. Like that is like unreal amount of long balls given up. And I just like he hasn't changed anything

to give me some sort of inclination that things are going to get better for him. If anything, things have gotten worse in spite of the fact that he doesn't, walk anybody. So like when he gives up a home run, it's a solo shot. So I mean, I appreciate that at least. Wait, are you talking about your long time obsession, Lance Lynn? Because I can hardly tell the difference based on the, based on the description here. The ADP is the difference. I was just I can see that it's a much cheaper thing. But yeah, I mean, if I'm playing in a league where I get

points for home runs given up by the pitcher, like I will wait 200 picks and go get Lance Lynn. Yeah. Honestly, I think Frank crushed it though with Omer, who I also. love. I do love Joe Ryan. I've been a fan. I feel like I've kind of made good on him, though. You know, we've been talking about like, you got a guy cheap. Do you want to pay up for him? I was huge on Joe Ryan in 2022. I think I cashed pretty hard on that. Stuck with him last year, but not nearly as many leagues with the price going up. And it was an okay season, at least for the first half. That second half, when the home runs were really crushing him. I mean, it was against good teams, but you can only do so much to give him a break there, right? We were talking about

game logging earlier. And I see that he gave up five home. at Atlanta, four at St. Louis, three at Colorado, and two at Houston that led to five plus earned in all four of those. Yeah, you could remove those and tell me the ERA, but I don't think they're going away. The thing with the Mitch Keller piece that we were talking about, it's like, I can map out a scenario where his issues are going to be fixed, and he can get rid of those blow-up starts. I think they're just part of Joe Ryan's arsenal. I mean, he had a five-home run outing in San Diego in 2022, the great season that he did have. He just avoided too many more of them, and that's why he was able to have a good season.

Home run guys, man, they rarely, rarely fix that. When they're at that level that he's at, they rarely turn that into a strength or even a neutral thing. I think they're just always going to be part of his game. So his whip is going to be really important because if they're multi-run homers, then Joe Ryan's in big trouble. So I root for him, but I'm not going to really have much of him this year. Give me the over pick much, much cheaper. I do want to bring up one point about Joe Ryan that I don't think we've brought up yet.

Because, yes, there was that surge in home runs in the second half. But remember, he had a groin injury that he was pitching through. That's right. That prevented him from finishing his delivery. Now, when he came back from that groin injury at the end of August, he ended up making seven more starts. Five of the seven were good. So the ERA, during that seven-start stretch, ended up in the high fours because there

were a couple starts where he got knocked around. But the seven starts, five innings, one-and-run seven-strike. Six innings, one and runs, seven strikeouts. Four innings, two and runs, three strikeouts. Four and two and three and runs, seven strikeouts. And then his second to last start, he had six innings, three and runs ten strikeouts. So, you know, six innings, three runs, that's a 450 ERA. But is that a bad start?

Six innings, ten strikeouts? I would say not. And then that last start was in Colorado. You could have feasibly skipped that, depending on where you were and how you were managing your roster on September 29th. Maybe you said, don't give me Joe Ryan in Colorado. And that was three of the six home runs he gave up in those last six home runs. he gave up in those last seven starts.

Yeah. But that's a good call out though. I am also persuaded by the Enoceras narrative of the rising fastball beginning to lose his effectiveness. And that's Joe Ryan's whole trick. So there's some competing narratives there that I guess is why I have Joe, I put Joe Ryan on the wrong side of the glob line for me.

He is in the glob, but he's high in the glob because I do at least see the strikeout potential. And, you know, if his struggles were more because of that groin injury, then the effect of the league catching up to the high fastball, he might turn out to be pretty good. Scott just pulled off the rare devil's advocate and then devil's advocate to the devil's advocate.

I love doing that one. That's a classic move where you come up with a point, then you shoot your own point down real quick. That way nobody else can do it. That's right. Cover all the bases. Let's take our final break. And then when we would return,

we'll talk about 10 more pitchers. We've got some other news items to talk about. We'll do that here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back in. And of course, when I say we're going to talk about 10 pitchers, that means I'm going to mention 10 pitchers. and we'll probably talk about like two or three of them. So 41 through 45 in Scott's rankings,

we see Christian Javier, followed by Hunter Green, Sunny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, and Chris Bassett. I think very clearly, Sunny Gray, Montgomery, and Bassett, they're in a different conversation from those first. I mean, they're like your higher floor type pitcher, you know, maybe your endings eater type. Maybe I'm down playing Sunny Gray a little bit. He was really good this past season.

But it was such home run prevention, though. It's just not repeatable. His home run is a fly ball. His young runner up, Sunny Gray, and I'm yawning. You're saying it's not repeatable, but he's going to a fantastic park for home runs.

Like, for me, like, Sunny Gray, like is a great guy to draft as long as I think he's going to be healthy. And the problem with Sunny Gray is, I see that slight frame. I see those mechanics.

And I worry that at some point, like his leg and arm fall off at the same time while he's in his motion. But that being said, like, I think he's going to be fine in San Luis. That will help. That will help. But it was a,

extreme home run suppression. He actually led the majors in FIP, which speaks to that home run suppression because, you know, Sunny Gray is not normally a guy who leads the majors in FIP. Also, on the health point, he exceeded 180 innings this past season.

It was the first time he reached that since 2015. That's nuts. Yeah. It's a problem. Yeah. I did want to focus on Christian Javier and Hunter Green from this group because it feels similar in that, there is a massive range of outcomes

for both of those two pitchers. I mean, if you just look at Christian Javier's past two seasons, the writing is on the wall there, right? He had a breakout 2022. He gets the five-year extension, comes out this season, finishes with a 456 ERA and a 127 whip, essentially a two-pitch pitcher

whose fastball regressed this past season. And there's a really interesting article written by, excuse me, if I mess up your name, Jake Mailhot, it's actually on Fangrass, and it shows the voluminous. the vertical break and the stuff plus on Christian Javier's fastball was down basically all season until he got to the postseason where that fastball just kind of came back and it was awesome again.

Which fastball were you going to get next year? I'm not entirely sure with Christian Javier. And then Hunter Green, we see that the upside is tantalizing. Swinging strike rates, gaudy strikeout numbers, but A, can he stay healthy? And B, his skill set, he's a fly ball pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact in the worst ballpark in baseball to do that in in Cincinnati.

So Justin, Christian Javier, Hunter Green, massive ranges of outcomes on both of these guys. My guess is based on everything you've said today, you probably won't have either of those two. I really want to draft Javier again because I was like early in on his breakout. I faded him last year because of the price. But like he's kind of like one of those guys that I liked, you know, early on in his career. the problem is I don't know what Christian Javier is like I just don't I think like it is like you were saying it is such a wide range of outcomes and I like to have some idea of what I'm getting into and I just like if he is a top 15 start of this year I'm not going to be surprised and if he's not even a top 100 started this year I'm not going to be surprised and like that is so hard when you are like at the draft table or auction table and you are filling out okay I have these many strikeouts. at this point, this many wins, this is what my year A and whip looks like, and you introduce a wild card like Christian Javier,

it kind of gives you a hard time of figuring out how you're going to finish out your draft or auction. And those are the guys I tend to avoid. And I also feel like we're not getting the discount that we deserve after the year of Christian Javier. Like I feel like we should be seeing him outside the top 200 picks. We're not. And there's guys going around there that are really intriguing to me. the aforementioned Bailey Ober, like going right there. Carlos Rodon,

if he's healthy, I'll take Carlos Rodan. Like, I'm probably staying away from Javier, but there is a part of me. I will draft him somewhere just so I have him on a team, but I also, you know, unlike normal people draft like 18, 19 teams. He's not joking, folks. Christian Javier, the ADP, by the way,

166.4 as the 44th starting pitcher off the board. Justin, you did mention the name Carlos Rodon there. Which brings us to the final group that we'll mention today, 46 through 50, Jose Burrios, Shane Bieber, Carlos Rodan, U. Darvish, and Nathan Avaldi. Again, these are Scott's rankings. This is not ADP right now. I can mention the ADP for some of them. It'll probably, there's probably going to be more disparity within this group. This is where my rankings start to get weird. Start to branch out. Yeah. And I should make the point because I think you, you Justin and Paul generally speak to the 15 team audience. my rankings are geared for a 12 team league.

And that distinction matters. Just like you were saying with the Scherzer thing, you know, you take different chances. Go ahead, I'm sorry. Yeah, I'm selling out for upside more than ever. And so that's reflected in my rankings. But the deeper the league you go in, the less of a waiver wire you have access to during the year.

And so you can't afford to take as the chances you take can't afford to be as big. And so like particularly that Sunny Gray, Jordan, Montgomery, I forget who the third one was, that group. Baset. Safely starters, but still Globy. Yeah, Chris Bassett was the other one. I understand they seem low in my rankings, and I understand upside types like Hunter Green seem high in my rankings,

and I might have to adjust that for a deeper league scenario, but in a 12-team league where I do have access to the waiverware where I can grab any globy pitcher I need when I need him, I think it makes sense. No, I think that's a great call-out, and yes, we do most. talk about 15 teams, but we do like to point out that make sure you're going to go for some of that upside in tens and 12s. You can be riskier with it because you're going to find capable waiver

picks and you're trying to spike that gym because that's the whole thing with tens and 12s. They present their own difficult challenges. You know, everyone thinks the deeper the league, the more difficult and better. No, there's plenty of challenges in shallow leagues because there's so much talent on the wire. You need talent that sets you apart. So I agree with trying to to shoot the moon with like a Javier or a green over a boring Basset or even a boring sunny gray type so that's a great distinction there between talking about the two different types SP 47 48 and 49 I mentioned were Bieber Rodan and Darvish and just thinking about it I kind of want to dub this group like the redeem team because I think there's all a chance that they can

bounce back right and we've seen huge upside from all of these pitchers in the past Shane Bieber maybe a little bit tougher because like the way that he's trending down is so much more obvious than some of the other names. And obviously coming off a season where he's injured with a strained right forearm, seems pretty likely to be traded this off season. So we'll find out where he winds up. Carlos Rodon, just a complete disaster, his first year with the Yankees. I just don't think he was ever fully healthy.

Started the season on the I.L. With a strain left forearm that turned into a back injury. He had to get injections. He missed time once he returned with a left hamstring strain as well. And Darvish, it kind of feels like Darvish is kind of like, Who was the player we mentioned earlier, like buying on the cheap whenever they're. Dylan Cese. Deceease, yeah.

Darvish kind of feels like whenever he's on the cheap, that's when you just kind of like swoop in and hope that you could profit off of that. Paul, do you find yourself going in on any of these names here, the Redeemed team, Darvish, Rodon, and Shane Bieber. Yeah, first of all I love the Redeemed team moniker there. You know, I've been a Beaver guy, but I am sowering a little bit, which is interesting, which is interesting since the price is lowering. I do still really like that he can miss bats at a decent. clip, but his health profile is really problematic. And you mentioned that he could easily be traded.

We'd certainly have to see where he lands and if that's going to change his outlook. And I don't like the three, four point dip in swinging strike rate last year that really undercut his case. You know, at least in 2022, you know, not everyone loved him and they were still sketchy of him, even though he put up a 288-104 because he had the 25% K rate and the 14% swinging strike. I thought the Ks were going to come back. They didn't. I know you asked if I'm going for anybody. I've kind of eliminated Beaver as a one-time big fan of him.

I'm looking more at Rodon because I agree with you. I think it's an injury washout that I'm willing to give him a full pass on. And now the price is a lot more reasonable. Everyone else is like, okay, we got to settle down after those two good years from Rodon and bring the price down to something a bit more reasonable, 160. He lives in a tight range, at least over the last handful of drafts at the NFBC, 145 to 168. in the last five drafts over there. So, you know, he kind of goes where he goes

and you got to be ready to take him. But somewhere in the 9th, 10th, 11th round, which is where those are in the NFBC 15 teamers, I will take Carlos Rodon and see if I can get that shot. Because I know with him, if he's healthy, he's a stud. It's just a matter of health. And I say just, obviously, that's been a big, big, big issue with Rodon, but I'll take the gamble down there.

Yeah, with Rodon, by the way, from 21 to 22, he made 55 starts, 267 ERA. a 1.0 whip on the nose. Filthy. 242, 5th, 288, Sierra, 12.2K per 9, 14.5% swinging strike rate. He had the third highest war among pitchers during that time, and he only threw like 275 innings or something crazy like that.

So he was obviously just amazing during that time. Scott, obviously, these are your ranking. So whoever's ranked the highest is who you're likely to go for. But do you find yourself kind of gravitating towards any of these guys, the Redeem team? No. I don't like this group. I hope to skip this range of the pitching rankings

unless I just, you know, unless maybe if it's a deep league, I'll have to go for somebody here. I rank Bieber the highest. And it is kind of a safety measure because I have them paired there with Chris Bassett and Jose Barrios.

Those are the last two before Shane Bieber in my rankings. And I see them as having similar upside at this point, which is how down I am on Bieber. I just, it seems like that shoulder injury had a couple years ago broke him. He hasn't regained the velocity. He got by without it in 2022 because his breaking balls were just incredible. But they lost a lot of their effectiveness.

Last year he started mixing in a cutter more, which is usually an indication that a guy's trying to pitch to contact. And I just think, I think if Bieber's going to succeed, it's as an innings eater who barely keeps his ERA under four. And, you know, since he's had health issues, it's not. not exactly a safe bet either. And yet, I have a better idea what to expect from him than Carlos Rodon or you Darvish. I think if you're selling out for upside, Rodon and Darvish are both better bets. I do like Rodon especially, since we could kind of just discard last year for all the health issues he was having. Darvish, you know, even when he was good in 2022, he saw his strikeout effectiveness diminished a great deal.

So I kind of feel like he's just aging out. I could be wrong about that. He could have another gear left in it. but last year didn't do anything to reassure me. So, yeah, I wouldn't say I'm excited about drafting any of these. The one who has the most excited. The one I can muster the most enthusiasm for, though, is Rodon. All right, there you go.

The top 50 in Scott's early starting pitcher rankings. Obviously, we didn't talk in depth about all the players, but we have all off-season to do that. There's like, you know, three, four more months before the season even starts. So we'll get to all these names in the off-season. Do want to wrap up with some news and notes. We had some smaller signings and things to talk about. Lordus Gurriel is resigning with the D-backs on a three-year, $42 million deal,

which includes an opt-out after the second year and a club option for 2027. Great bounceback year for Guriel with the Diamondbacks. Hit 261 with a career high 24 homers, 82 RBI, a 772 OPS. The early ADP is 236.9. As the 53rd outfielder off the board, Gurriel going just behind names like Taylor. Ward, Jared Kellnick, and Starling Marte. Justin, what do you think about the price tag for Lordis Guerreel? I was listening to you guys recently, and I didn't know you were such a Jared

Kelnick Stan. So what do you think about like Kelnick versus Gueriel? Is that like the right range? What do you think? I mean, part of me goes, oh, I'm going to take Kelnick, but I actually think you probably should take Gurriel just because, especially with his contract, like his playing time's guaranteed. Like if Kelnick is like on. the bench or in the minor leagues. It's not going to be surprising. Especially with his move to Atlanta, while it's a much better park for Kelnik League, it's also a lot more competitive in terms of the other guys around there.

And they might have a short leash with him, whereas Grail's just going to play. I'm a little surprised he ended up back in Arizona, considering, you know, he's probably going to DH more often than not. Probably Berries, you know, guys like Dominic Fletcher and Jake McCart. a little bit, which is fine, because I don't think either of them are particularly good at baseball. But, yeah, I mean, I think Gertiel is a totally fine kind of fifth outfielder in a deeper league. He's not someone I'm jumping for Joyeth. I don't see, like, this massive upsides for those you do play in like tens and 12s. Like, I'm probably ignoring him for a higher upside bat that I can

just kind of filter in throughout the season. I do wonder what this kind of means for Jordan Luller, at least this season, too, because there have been rumors that, The debacks still want to add a DH, and they've been kind of linked to J.D. Martinez. There's a little bit of a history there. So between bringing in Suarez and Lordis Gueriel, if they bring in a DH, I just don't know how it's going to happen, unless Hraldo Perdomo just kind of falls flat on his face. So I think that'll be- Which I don't expect. Yeah, that'll be something to watch here this offseason for the Diamondbacks. The Royals have been very busy.

Seth Lugo and Michael Waka are reunited. How about that? The Royal signed Waka to a two-year, $32 million contract. The deal includes an opt-out after the first year. And Michael Waka, the past two years, I mean, we're kind of just waiting for it to fall apart, but it hasn't. He has made 47 starts since the beginning of 2022,

a 327 ERA, a 114 whip. Strikeout numbers are not great, but the results have been there. Scott, the early ADP on Michael Waka is 271.6, going just ahead of Seth Lugo. Who would you rather have? I mean, it makes sense that they're linked like that because they both

succeed in spite of their modest strikeout ability and they were leaving the same team now they're going to the same team it's like it's hard to tell them apart almost so my analysis for Waka going to the Royals is pretty similar to what I gave for Lugo

going to the Royals is that okay well it's a good park that should help that could help him keep that ERA on the low side even though the peripheral say it should go up. He's going to be in a great place to pitch now. So I guess that's good. But overall, I think it's a net loss in fantasy

because now he's with the Royals. And so what's his wind potential going to look like? And for those innings-eater non-strikeout types, you really want to get wins from them. I think they're both pretty fringe. Justin does have some love for the Royals that he has been talking about on our show and now he's throwing a Hunter Renfro.

So I'm going to defer to Justin here to talk these guys up. There's actually two guys I've quite liked over the years, big time Waka fan, since he came into the majors. And I like Lugo now that he's a starter. But I'm going to let Justin go because he's been talking up the virtues of KC. So maybe they have some wins in their back pocket for those guys. I think Kansas City is kind of a dark horse team right here. Like they, you know, it's a really interesting young offense that is growing. They now add these two guys who, yeah, they're not top of the rotation arms.

But like they could be interesting number three guys. in a lot of rotations, it's a great part to pitch in, and the division is atrocious. Like, if the Royals win the Central, is anybody really going to be that surprise? Like, the twins haven't gotten better. The guardians have gotten worse. The Tigers are on the upswing, too, but, like, there's still a lot of holes there. Like, this is a winnable division. I think you're sleeping a little bit on the win potential for these royals.

Last year, I predicted that the timebacks would win the NOS. I missed out on that. They made it to the World Series instead. Yeah, I mean, when I'm in Vegas, when I'm in Vegas, I'm going to put a little bet on the Royals to win the division. I think there's a not, I'm not thinking they may actually do it, but I think they got a little shot. I think that people are sleeping on them right now.

I do want to say, as somebody who doesn't believe in the Royals chances next year, like this feels like a missed opportunity for all the contending clubs that need starting pitch. I'm thinking of the Braves specifically, of course. But like, these were really. reasonable short-term contract signed by Michael Waka and Seth Lugo, who okay, I don't believe in entirely either, but they're going to eat some innings for you. Like, why do you want the wasted?

Wouldn't they be better served on your team than wasted in Kansas City? Like that? I'm surprised some more firmly contending teams didn't go for those dudes, too. I agree. I do think that, I agree that the tigers are on the upswing, too. So I might smell like a little head-to-head bet here between Justin's Royals and Paul's Tigers. I'm in.

I can make that happen. All day. My Royals. We mentioned a few times. They are now. Hunter Renfro signed a one-year deal with the Royals, which includes a player option for 20-25. Turns 32 years old in January. A down year for Hunter Renfro.

Hit 233 with 20 homers. But he was coming off a successful two-year run in Boston and Milwaukee where he hit 257, had an 812 OPS, and average 30 home runs per season. Obviously, Kaufman Stadium is not conducive to power. but I think there could be potentially some sneaky power here very late in drafts. Paul, any interest? I mean, we're talking like, you know, these draft champions. I'm sure he's going entirely too late.

He was 503 in the most recent drafts, most recent five drafts. And yes, it'll go up with him signing. But even if it goes up 100 picks, I'll pay pick 400. And I agree, Kaufman's not the best place for Renfro. But he's an anywhere power kind of guy. He's got big boy power. So I'm not too worried. I do think you can still get back into the upper 20s, low 30s,

if everything's right with his health and whatnot. And he's a decent enough defender that I think he should continue, that he should say locked into the lineup pretty consistently too. So I do like Grenfro. Solid move by them. Another solid move by the Royals. Some smaller deals, by the way, the Pirates sign Martin Perez to a one-year, $8 million deal who put up a 445 ERA and a 140 whip this season

after a career year in 2022. Does give the Pirates some innings. Their rotation is currently Mitch Keller, Martine Perez, Marco Gonzalez, Luis Ortiz, and Bailey Falter with some pretty interesting pitching prospects on the way as well. The Giant Sign catcher, Tom Murphy, to a two-year deal,

who is likely to be the backup catcher behind Patrick Bailey. I forgot Justin's actual team is the Giants. So obviously, he's fist pumping all the way for Tom Murphy. And he's getting excited about Tom Murphy. Well, why not? finally signed someone. It's amazing.

You guys are in the mix now. Yeah. We're still waiting on Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There's been a ton of rumors, requested a second meeting with the Yankees, met again with the Mets. Obviously the Dodgers, the Red Sox, the Phillies, the Giants are all still in on Yamamoto,

so we'll wait and see. And last but not least, the Blue Jays have shown interest in trading for Jonathan India, who I expect will not be with the Cincinnati Reds on opening day. We are going to wrap there. Got to thank both of these fine gentlemen for joining us once again, Paul Sporer and Justin

Macears. What's up? All right. Say their actual names. Sorry. The Glob Fathers. That's right. Paul Sporer, you can follow him on Twitter at Sporer. That's S-P-O-R-E-R. And you can follow Justin on Twitter at Justin Mason F-W-FB. Make sure to check them out on the Sleeper and the Bus podcast as well. Thanks again, guys. Appreciate you jumping on. Thanks for having us. I really appreciate it. Yeah, this is a blast. Thank you guys. All right. For Paul and Justin.

And Scott, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again on Thursday. Bye-bye.