Fantasy Baseball Today - Early 2025 Outfield Rankings! Where to Rank Ronald Acuña? (11/14 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 14, 2024

Let's take a look at our early outfield rankings, starting with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Mookie Betts (2:35). ... Why Corbin Carroll over Yordan Alvarez (5:55)? ... How should we rank Ronald Acuña (17:52)? ... Jackson Merrill over Jazz Chisholm (24:13)? ... What do we expect from Christian Yelich (29:35)? ... News (40:10): Travis d'Arnaud signed with the Angels. ... Oneil Cruz has moved into the outfield (47:30)? ... Michael Harris had a down year in 2024 (50:15). ... Will Luis Robert get traded this offseason (55:00)? ... We wrap up with the rest of our Top 30 outfielders (59:40). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. How far should Ronald de Cunia fall down the rankings? Is James Wood being overvalued?

You've got outfield questions. We hopefully will have answers. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on 3rd. On Thursday, November 14th, I am Frank Stamphill, who got the date right for once, that's great. Joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we are taking an early look at 2025 outfield rankings looking to get through

the top 30 from both Scott and Chris. We'll be comparing rankings going back and forth, but let's just jump right in, see how many of these we can get through. We'll go through groups of three, keep this thing moving along here, and just start up top. The top three for Scott, Aaron Judge,

Juan Soto and Mookie Betts, you will never guess it. Chris has the same top three. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Mookie Betts, which this feels pretty standard. All three are proven studs and first round picks next season, regardless of format. Categories, head-ed points, it doesn't matter.

Let me ask this. I'm in an early draft, N. F.C. I took Kyle Tucker over Wansoto. Did I get too cute? Is that too cute? What do you think, Scott? Well, Kyle Tucker's number four for me. Ah, so it's not that cute. There's that.

I mean, obviously, you're talking about a Roto League, and Kyle Tucker, we presume, provides steals, potentially as many as 30 of them, while Juan Soto will be lucky to get double digits, and that's a big deal in that format. Of course, if you're talking about a points league with all the walks, Juan Soto gets, it'd be a different story.

But we're not. We're talking about a Roto League. I mean, it's not, it's certainly not, Beyond all imagination that Kyle Tucker could be the second best outfielder in fantasy, he was kind of trending toward that, or at least right up there with Juan Soto in terms of fantasy production before, what's it called, the shin injury. Yeah.

Yeah. It's the, yeah, I mean, I would have a hard time justifying that. I mean, it's just steals, right? That's the only... Yeah. I'm a little bit more right. I understand Juan Soto is like generational

Hall of Fame track, like all of that. I do worry, and there's data that does support like first year of a mega contract, it doesn't always go great. Now, Otani just went 50-50s, so you know,

you might be laughing at me for thinking that, but Bryce Harper, we saw his first year in Philadelphia. I know Lindor was a trade, but he got traded and then signed a massive extension. His first year in New York

not great. I mean, we've seen this time and time again. So it just wouldn't surprise me. And I think they're like close enough where, you know, if you're using that as the reason to take Kyle Tucker, I'm fine with it and that's why I did it. But maybe I'm crazy. No, I don't think you're crazy.

It's comparing around the margins. Yeah. Right. It's not like they are in some different tier, really. It's just Kyle Tucker hasn't been as, bankable and is coming off a year that he lost half of it to injury and that always uh i think makes a player feel riskier and and maybe it was just a a fluke thing a stress fracture in the shin i it's not like he has an extensive injury history so it's it it it's not crazy i just

i couldn't pass up juan soto after the year he just had and and after and like knowing who he is and as much as he's on base, all the runs he's going to score and everything else. Now, if he signs with San Francisco, maybe I drop him behind Kyle Tucker at my rankings. But assuming he winds up in a neutral hitting environment or better, then I'm going to take Soto. Let's move on to outfielders four through six and for Scott, the aforementioned Kyle Tucker, Corbyn Carroll, and Fernando Tatis. And for Chris, it's Kyle Tucker, Jordon Alvarez, and Fernando Tatez. So Corby and Carroll, a little bit lower here for Chris. Again, it's like splitting hairs. Scott has Carol a little bit higher than Alvarez and Tatis,

and Chris has him a little bit lower. I mean, is there anything to that that you guys need to defend as to why? I think Scott is from our conversation in the previous podcast a little bit more confident in Corby and Carroll bouncing back and batting average. I do think there's a chance. the Corbyn Carroll is just kind of a drag in batting average. So that I think is mostly the gap between us, but it's two spots. And I think you have Fernando Tatis a couple spots lower. How much lower? Oh, no.

Carol, it's, oh, Yordon Avarez. Yeah. Is who I have in the top six. And you have Yordon Avarez eighth. It's two spots either direction. I don't think it really makes a big difference. It's just I think Scott's a little more confident that like the second half, because I think it's the second half,

he was the number two outfielder and he hit 256, I think, is the stat. And I'm a little less certain that 256 is like a negative outlier for Corbyn Carroll. I think that might be more what he is. He was 268XBA in 2023, 247. in 2024. I think he might just be a 260 hit. Well, if we're doing the comparison, Corbyn Carroll, like if that's where what we're kind of describing our,

if that's our frame of reference for your Navarez, Corbyn Carroll, then I would say the distinction there. Yeah, I mean, maybe Corby and Carroll's kind of mid-outcome is 260, but I think he could hit 280 potentially or higher. I don't think he's going to be a batting average liability the way Ellie de la Cruz, let's say, could. And obviously, Jordan Alvarez is going to be an asset for batting average. But let's get back to the stolen base comparison here

because Kyle Tucker versus Juan Soto, we're talking you're missing out on 20 to 30 steals potentially. Corbyn Carroll versus Jordan Alvarez, you're missing out on 30 to 50 steals potentially. So it's a bigger, a much bigger gap there. Corbyn Carroll is not just to help in stolen bases. He could be one of the most impactful players in that category. So if we're going to do that Corbyn Carroll versus Jordan Alvarez thing,

that's where I land on that. But just speaking more generally about Alvarez, because I originally had him ranked similarly to you, Chris, because I'm not putting the same emphasis on stolen bases that others I'm putting more of an emphasis on batting average. But the thing about Yorna Alvarez that separates him from Mawand Soto is you got to factor in an IL stint. He's a burly guy whose knees have been an issue for him in his early to mid-20s. And he'll probably never play 150 games in a season. He might only play 125.

And that's going to limit his RBI and run production at a point in the draft where you want to get about 200 of that. those. He's more likely going to give you 170 to 180. And so that's the biggest reason I'm knocking down Jordan Alvarez, but he's a stud. Again, what was the phrase I used before comparing on the margins or something like that? Because it's not like, it's not like

Jordan Alvarez is a bad pick at the round one two turn. The tyranny of small differences. That's a thing people say, right? know what context they say it in, but that's, that applies here, I'm surely. Scott, you mentioned that excuse me, Alvarez is likely to miss time. I think you could say the same thing for Fernando Tatis, right? He missed a chunk of time. That one. All right. So tell me why. Well, so like Yonan Alvarez, it's recurring issues that crept back up last year. He did miss some time with a knee injury last year for the first time in a while. Previous, the previous couple of years, because remember,

he had, I think 2020, he had surgery, I want to say, on his knees. And it mostly, the knee issues mostly went away. And then I think he had a bit of a knee issue this year in his right knee. He also had like an oblique at one point, I think. And like, that is more concerning. I think when you're talking about recurring injuries, Fernetta Tatis, it was recurring shoulder injuries and then the wrist from a motorcycle ax. Right?

Am I getting these details correct? please feel free to have a famously bad memory. Then he gets surgery on both the wrist and shoulder. 2023, I don't think he missed any time with injury, right? The only time he missed in 2023 was when he was coming back from the suspension. From the suspension. Yep.

And then last year he has this fibula stress reaction that is totally separate from everything that he struggled with in the past. And that's not to say that that can't be an issue. moving forward. A stress reaction would seem to indicate that there's some kind of under, but like the fact that it was just a completely different injury, I don't worry too much about that. Just like I'm not holding Kyle Tucker having basically the same thing against him.

A bone injury, that should heal. Like we've been doing, we've been doing bones for thousands, maybe millions of years as a species. We know how to handle that. A torn labrum, like surgery to repair a torn labrum, that's like 70 years. I have no idea if that's true. But we'll say it's true. So like that to me is Fernando Tatis, I actually don't have that much injury concern around him. That being said, I have said this about many players who have gone on to suffer recurring injuries in the past.

I don't know. That's just my internal model. And Tatis was still really good. He had 21 home runs, 11 steals, 833 OPS. Obviously hasn't been as good as before all the surgeries and suspensions and everything. So we're still kind of waiting to see that like elite number one player upside for what it's worth. He went insane in the playoffs in a really small sample size. So hopefully the further we get away from those surgeries, suspensions, yada yada. You know, if we can get a full season out of Tatis, maybe we can get that, you know, 40, 20 type season or something. something like that. Yeah. And I felt, I felt underwhelmed by his production the past couple years. I almost want to rank Tautis lower,

but then you look at that stat cast page. He was one of the biggest underachievers by the stack cast data. Expected batting average 304 versus the 276 mark he hit. Expect its lug 554 versus the 492 mark. And those expected stats, those are 95th percentile or better. It's a bit like what we've seen, what we saw from Vladimir Guerrero the previous couple years

where he didn't, he had a reputation as an elite level hitter but wasn't meeting those stat cast marks and then suddenly he was again. And Fernando Tatis with his history and still being in his mid-20s, I think there's a very good chance he bounces back with that. I don't want to overpay for him,

but I think we're being careful not to do that by ranking him only sixth in the outfield. I wonder if there's something in the profile of Tatis, the way he hits the ball that causes him to underperform. And I know there was, I think there was a few articles that came out the past couple of years that he mostly hits his fly balls to center field and like the power alleys. And maybe because the ball hasn't been traveling as well the past couple of years, that's why he's kind of underperforming these expected stats.

but there was someone much smarter than me who broke it down. I believe on Fangraphs, there were a couple articles about it. So if you search out Fernando Tatis and on Fangraphs and look up those articles, you might be able to find a reason why. I'm just kind of speculating, trying to figure out why is he underperforming so much. Just looking at his Fangraph's page, his highest poll rate was in 2021, the ridiculous season. And then in 23 and 24, among his lower poll rates,

the 2024, it was his lowest poll rate of his current. career. So, so yeah, I mean, he could stand to pull the ball more, but that's something that we see hitters adjust all the time. So I'm, I'm not really worried about it. I would just also point to Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrera as examples of guys that we were like, oh, there's a reason that are underperforming their stack cast data. And it's like, well, until they didn't, right? And like, Soto changed teams and that might explain it, right? It might just be a Petco Park thing. Peco Park might just be an especially tough place specifically for like elite hitters to perform at. We've seen that.

Adrian Gonzalez for a long time underperformed of Peco Park. So it, I'm not writing it off entirely, but like Scott said, that's a reason to rank him sixth instead of like fourth. All right. A quick reminder that you can always listen to FBT and FBT and 5 on Spotify. If you're watching on YouTube, scan the QR code that will take you right to the FBT feed on. Spotify and speaking of which I know Spotify wrapped will be released soon it gives you all a bunch of stats on the podcast you've listened to from the past year so make sure to tweet us your Spotify wrapped graphics once those are out bosses love that kind of stuff and you know makes

us feel good about ourselves so yeah let us know how much you listen to FBT this past year we'll take our first break and when we return back into the outfield ranks we'll do that right after this welcome back in and we will continue on with our outfield rankings and seven through nine for Scott we have Julio Rodriguez, Yordaun Alvarez, and Jaron Duran, and for Chris it's Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, and Ronald Acuna, who Scott has down at 12. We spoke about all the other names, well, we spoke about Acuna a lot recently as well, but for Acuna, we know that he has surgery to repair the torn ACL in his left knee, and he won't be ready for opening day that came from the mouth of Alexanthopoulos. He had surgery on his

right ACL back in 2022. So now both knees and legs have been operated on. He had that historic 2023, but he was off to a bad start before the injury of this year. And I mean, I don't think that was related to any type of injury or at least they didn't tell us that. He only hit 250.

He had four home runs, 16 steals, and a 716 OPS. The K rate more than doubled. The quality of contact came way down. Chris, what do you make of just Acuna struggles before the drastic knee injury that? he suffered once again. I don't really make much of it, to be honest. I didn't think there was a

physical underlying explanation for why Ronald O'Kunia was struggling. Like, clearly the strikeout rate moving in the wrong direction, that was a concern. And that is a good reason to think that 2023 was not a fluke. I don't want to say fluke, but a career year. It is unlike that Ronald Ocuna will do 2023 again. The improvements in his contact rate were gigantic and did not prove sustainable. So like I don't think you should look at 2023 and say that's the expectation. It's possible though. And look, I get, I think the case against him right would be 2022 coming back from the ACL.

He struggled. He didn't hit the way he had the previous year. And now we have 2024 where he struggled to hit. and is coming back from Torney ACL. I get it. I think those are reasonable reasons to be concerned. But when you're talking about this range of the draft, I know a lot of people say you don't want to mess it up.

You can mess it up by taking Julio Rodriguez or Corbyn Carol. We saw that, like, not in the same way where Ronald Ocunia is coming back from an injury. But like, I don't think either of those guys' seasons last year were dramatically better than Ronald Ocunia's 2022. And I do expect him like he's not going to be back opening day. We'll see is my take on that. Like we are six months away from opening day roughly, five and a half months away from opening day. I think it's still too far away to say for sure that he can't make it back by late March.

But let's say he can't. Does that mean he can't be back by early April? Well, that's here's. Or mid April? This is what concerns. to me because I originally had Ronald Ocuna second and then I had him third. I was I was prepared to be bullish on Acuna for next year and for what it's worth, I don't I don't really think we can take anything like if from from his performance before

he hurt the knee like if you looked at most any hitters stats on May 26th of last year, you would you would come away unimpressed and it's not even like we can use 2023 as a basis comparison. Ronald Acuna last year through those two months wasn't doing like he had done at any point in his career. So whatever. I don't take anything from the performance last year, but what concerns me is that six months out from the season, Alex Anthopoulos, I read the quote two or three times. He sounded pretty definitive. We know he's not going to be ready for opening day. That's not the exact quote, but that's more or less the gist of it, which I found surprising because it is so far away. How can can he say with that much confidence that Acuna, they're not, they don't think he's going to be ready to go for opening day? And if they can say six months out that they don't think he's going to be ready, I don't know that it's necessarily a thread the needle kind of situation where we think he's, we think he's six months and two weeks away from playing as opposed to six months. You know, the fact he was so definitive for it being so far out still, I found

concerning. And I said Acuna, what he did through those first two months in 2024 was unlike the rest of his career. The one exception to that, 2022, when he came back from the first ACL injury and did not look right at the play. His swing didn't look right. He wasn't able to launch the ball like we're used to seeing. And I wonder if they learned from that that they brought him back too quickly.

and they just want to be, they really want to take their time with them this time. I don't know. I went from saying, okay, I don't know exactly what the timetable is, exactly what Acuna State's going to be for the start of 2024,

but I know the upside is so high, and I know he had the ACL surgery so long ago that I'll rank them high and adjust down based on what we're hearing in spring training. And now, with that word from Alex Anthopoulos, I'm taking the opposite tact. I'm ranking Akuna cautiously,

and I'm going to adjust up based on what we're hearing in spring training. I do want to correct something that I said earlier. I read off the stats that Akuna had in the 49 games before he tore his ACL again, and I said, I don't think it was injury related before that. I did just remember that back in spring training, he was dealing with some knee soreness

that shut him down for a couple of weeks, and, you know, there was a little bit of a, a panic for a little bit there in fantasy about like, is he still the first overall pick? I think in most leagues he was, but just, you know, it was something that came to mind and maybe,

you know, he was dealing with that early on and then obviously had the torn ACL. So the Braves have two of the most prized assets in baseball. Ronald McCune and Spencer Shrider, they need to play it safe just for like the long term with both of those guys. So obviously they can be competitive for years to come. So we'll wait and see what we learn in the offseason. Outfielders 10 through three.

12 for Scott, we have the Jackson's Churio and Merrill and then Ronald de Cunia down at 12. And then for Chris, it's Jaron, Jackson, Churio, and Jazz Chisholm. So the only difference here is that Scott has Jackson Meryl ahead of jazz and Chris has it vice versa. Scott, why do you hate jazz? No, you have them like one spot apart. So, but why do you prefer Jackson Merrill over jazz chism, I guess? The reason I moved to Cunia, getting back to that, where I did 12th behind Jackson Centurio and Jackson Merrill is because that's the point where I determined we're dropping from first round caliber bats potentially to high-end bats, but not first-round caliber.

I think Jazz Chisholm is outside of that discussion given his injury history and given his limited ceiling with batting average. So I do think Jackson Merrill, as we talked about on the last podcast, does have the potential to produce like a first rounder because he's already so just built for batting average. You know, he hit 292 as a rookie. He had an expected batting average of 308, 98th percentile, his expected batting average, low strikeout rate, good line drive rate,

That is arguably the safest part of Jackson Merrill's profile, and it's the one that we were just saying a minute ago, that's the stat that's most critical to fill in the early rounds. Meanwhile, he had a combined 40 home runs and stolen bases, and this was as a 20-year-old didn't really get going until June. He kind of produced a hollow batting average before them, but most of his actual production came from June 1st on. and factoring all that in,

the comfort level that's going to come from having already spent a year in the majors, I think it's very likely Jackson Merrill is just, well, I mean, we're having this conversation next year leading into 2026. I think it's very likely we are talking about him as a first rounder. I agree with everything you said about jazz regarding the batting average downside, the injury risk 100%. played a career high, 147 games, hadn't played more than 124 before that. I also think he might have first round upside.

Even if he hits 250 or 260, his 150 game pace once he went to the Yankees was 35 homers and 58 steals. Nobody is expecting that, but I don't know that it's impossible either. About half of that was spent playing through that elbow injury. Yeah. Remember, he rushed back from that elbow injury, and it affected him. his performance, but like he put up those numbers while dealing with, uh, UCL damage in his left elbow,

right? That was the, the injury. So like, that's where for me, if I'm going to push guys up for stolen bases, you know, you mentioned there being like a 30 to 50 steel gap between,

uh, Yordon Alvarez and Corby and Carroll. It's probably not going to be that pronounced, but they're, could be a 30 steel gap between jazz chishol and jackson merrill like i i think that is possible the yankees were surprisingly aggressive with jazz chisholm on the base paths we there's a reason we got excited when he got traded there and then we saw it in action we saw what we hoped to see from jazz chisholm i think there's a chance he's batting leadoff for the yankees next year too uh i i i think

we're all assuming glaver torres is going somewhere else not returning to the yankees and i think jazz is probably the most likely full-time leoff hitter unless you really believe in anthony bolpe i don't know where they are on him at this point but that could be a really good situation i i acknowledge the injury risk fully that that is a big drawback on jazz chisholm and if it's you can't justify that price i think that's perfectly reasonable but i do think the the the five, call it four categories if you don't want to say batting average, potential there for jazz is really, really high. Yeah, I mean, I'll just note he had 74 runs and 73 RBI this past year, even with the Yankees.

He played most of his season with the Marlins. Well, but even with the Yankees, his run an RBI pace wasn't good. He was batting sixth mostly, so you can kind of understand. If he bats lead off, that would certainly change expectations. there. But I think jazz chisholm is from a five by five perspective. You give him good health. You assume he delivers close to his full potential. You're hoping for like Francisco Lundor production. And I do think Francisco Lundor with his last two years has put himself on the fringe of first round status there. But just a year ago, we were drafting him late second round. So that's that's more

what I view jazz chishol as being than, you know, with Jackson Merrill, we're talking about Kyle Tucker type upside, I think. Outfielders 13 through 15 for Scott, we have Jazz Chisham, Christian Yellich, and James Wood. And for Chris, we have Jackson, Merrill, Luis Robert, and Michael Harris. So this is where we started to move into some differences in the outfield rankings. Scott has Yelich and James Wood a little bit higher. Chris has Luis Robert and Michael Harris, a decent bit higher than where Scott. has them. So let's just quickly go one by one with some of these names here. Yelich was awesome before he

shut it down. Finally opted to have that back surgery. He's been dealing with back injuries for years now. The actual surgery he had was a microdiskectomy in August, which is a spine surgery that removes part or all of a bulging or herniated disc in the lower back. Their recovery time was three months, so he should be fully healthy for the start of spring training. He'll also be 33 years old on opening day, and we just don't really know how Yellich will respond to this. We just, we don't really, you know, I don't think we have much of a track record for something like this. The early ADP has Yelich at Outfield 29.

Scott, you have Yelich at Outfield 14, so much more optimistic view early on here. Yeah. I guess, I guess everyone's just being careful about the back surgery. And backs can be tricky. Don't get me wrong. I don't really know how Christian Yellich is going to bounce back from this. But if he's Christian Yellich, if he's the Christian Yellich we saw last year, then I think he easily justifies this place in the rankings.

I mean, he was looking like an MVP contender again before he got hurt. And the thing is, since those, his MVP 2018 season, near MVP 2019 season, the year since then were marred by this back issue that he finally had corrected. So it could be a hindrance that he's coming back from back surgery or surgery or it could be a huge boon to him. And we could see him improve even on last year's numbers because we see more of that power come back. He's a good base dealer. He's a good batting average. He's a source.

He's going to score a ton of runs because he always gets on base a lot. And I think some of the past injury risk has been removed. now that he's not that that that bulging disc has been addressed. James Wood was one of the top prospects in baseball last season and performed well in 79 games. He hit 264 with nine home runs, 14 steals of 781 OPS. Of course he has his flaws.

He's like 21 years old. So we're hoping that he continues to get better. Chris, you have him a little bit lower here. Art, do you maybe think we're overvaluing James Wood here early on in the process going into the second year? I don't know if I would say we are, I mean, yeah, sure.

I think like, you know, top 15 outfielder, personally, I think that's probably overvaluing him. Just relative to like, was he that much better than Dylan Cruz and Wyatt Langford and other similarly precocious outfielders who are much lower in the rankings and ADP right now? I don't really think so. I think you can look at it both ways. You can look at it and say, all right, this guy was on an 18 homer, 28 steel, roughly 80 run, 85 RBI or 85 run 80 RBI pace while being very obviously not a finished product. Right? Like there were didn't elevate the ball, struck out way too much, swung and missed way too much, had a really inconsistent. launch angle, hit a bunch of ground balls, didn't pull the ball.

I think he had like two batted balls in the air to the pull side the entire season or something like that. He was clearly just not a finished product. And yet he held his own. I think you can look at that and say, yeah, but once he does figure it out, look out, I just, there's no guarantee he figures it out. and there are finished products with similar production profiles that are going behind where he is right now.

I don't necessarily think it's worth the bet when there are so many interesting young outfielders this year. I think I would much rather take the bet on Cruz at a much cheaper price or Wyatt Langford. Lawrence Butler. Lawrence Butler who has a similar statistical profile. You prefer Butler to Wood? No, no, but at cost.

Yeah, okay. You can get, I mean, the early 80P. I think I have Butler five spots behind. You get, you can get Butler 50 picks. So like double where James Wood is going right now. So it's just, I don't want to say he's entirely a mystery box because like, if all he does is what he did, what he showed last year, that's a solid player. I mean, project that over.

not worth this. He played 79 games, so let's just double his stats. James Wood, 18 homers, 28 steals. Yep. 82 RBI, 86 runs. So that's just projecting out what he's already done, even with the strikeout issues, even with the launch angle issues. And by the way, with those strikeout issues, with those launch angle issues,

James Wood actually underperformed his expected stats. So you don't even have to project growth to be excited about James Wood. And it's very likely, given his prospect pedigree, and what often happens to this caliber hitter in year two, that there's considerable improvement. So now I'm being, I'm consciously not trying to overvalue the kids this year. And I don't think I am by putting James Wood 15th in the outfield rankings. plus when when it's a kid who already has to some degree proven himself in the majors

I think that's uh I think I think enthusiasm is more justified isn't it crazy that we're calling James what a kid and he's like six foot seven I mean he'd be that tall no matter how old he was yeah I do want to like compare Wyatt Lankford's final 79 games because I I would guess it's pretty close. And it is. Wyatt's final 79 games, 255 batting average, 13 home runs,

12 stolen bases, 53 runs, 43 RBI. So less speed, more pop, similar batting average, better run production numbers. At some point, aren't we just penalizing

Wyatt Langford for getting to the majors two months ahead of James Wood? Yeah, that's what I'm banking on, though. What do you mean? Well, where are they going relative to each other in early drafts? I don't want to put too much stock in that, because I know that it's, it's,

there are all the issues with the data, but. I was just going to say they're, they're back to back in outfield rankings in ADP. Wood is the 16th outfielder. Yeah, about 15 spots over. Lankford is 17 and, yeah, they're going about 15 picks apart. But you've got Langford 20th. I have Wood 15th and Langford 20th.

So we're not talking an order of magnitude difference. But, but yeah. Like, I've got them two spots apart. That's my, my case for what Wood is mostly just, I don't see the point in pushing him ahead of a similar guy. And like, yeah, I think Dylan Cruz rightly is behind them, but I don't know if he should be that much behind them either. I mean, my thinking kind of is, okay, it's, you need a particularly a position like the outfield

where there's just, there's so many redoubt. and sees so many players who are basically same tier, you need to find ways to distinguish between them and forming rankings. I feel like Wood has all the sizzle right now, why Langford's post-type. And so I feel like I have to stretch a little more to get Wood, and Langford I can kind of let come to me.

It would seem from the early ADP data that maybe I'm exaggerating that distinction between the two, the distinction and perception between the two. We'll see as, you know, draft season plays out. But I'd be more likely to move Langford up a couple spots than would down, I think. I will say I'm probably just going to move them both up. I have them 22 and 24. I think I'll probably just have to move them up so that I can draft some of them.

Let's take our final break. And when we return, we'll hit some news and notes. Then we'll get back into the outfield rankings. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's quickly hit on some news and notes. and the Angels are doing Angels things. They signed Travis Darno

to a two-year $12 million contract. And this kind of sucks because Darno can still play. He just hit 15 home runs. He had a 739 OPS. Solid barrel rate still grades out as a solid defender. So the hope here was that Darno would go to a crappy team, which he did.

But one where he could start and that gives us another second catcher option for fantasy. But instead, he goes to a team where he's going to back up Logan O Hoppey and likely play just enough to be annoying for Logan O Hoppe's playing time. You can point to first base in D.H. I don't see it because they have

Nolan Chaniel, who is still young. I think he should get an opportunity to play. And the D.H. Start the caliber player, at least. And they had the D.H. spot for Solair. And I think Mike Trout needs more time at D.H. too. So I think all around, this move kind of sucks for fantasy. Yeah, you pretty much.

You pretty much summed it up there. I have Logan O'Hoppy Tentick catcher. I'm probably going to move him down some. I still haven't quite figured out how far I want to move him down. But I was thinking O'Hopi, one of the strengths of his was that he'd play around 75% of the time, a good workload for a catcher. Now I think it's going to be more like 60% with Darno there. And yeah, I didn't like knowing that Darno was probably leaving the brave. but I thought, well, at least, you know, he could get a true starting job somewhere,

one of the many teams that needs a catcher. And, of course, he signed with one that doesn't really need a catcher. So that's frustrating on both ends. Yeah. The annoying thing is like, we went into this season thinking, okay, or the offseason thinking, well, the Angels probably can't have Mike Trout play center field full time. And I think they've talked about that, right? Like, that's something that they've acknowledged.

Like, he probably needs to spend more time in a corner, maybe get some time at DH, blah, blah, blah. and then they go out and get Jorge Saler, which either makes it so he can't play DH at all, or they're going to play Jorge Soler in the field, which is a bad idea. And Trout has to play centerfield, or that's where they put him at DH.

And then they go get a very solid hitting catcher, the kind of guy who the Braves occasionally would like, you know, have, try to find ways to get both him and Sean, Sean Murphy. That's his name. That's his name. Jesus, why don't wear it out?

Murphy and like, it would be reasonable for them to get Darno and Ohopi in the lineup. There will probably be times next year, maybe on opening day where two of their nine best hitters are Travis Darno and Logan O'Hoppy. Except they can't do that and have Mike Trout not in center field, right?

Like it, I don't under, and why are you doing this? on November 14th when nobody else has signed. There have been like four players signed to Major League contracts, and two of them have been Travis Darno and Kyle Hendrix to the Angels. Shane McClanahan, Shane O. Mack.

Here comes the money. Here we go. Money talks. Here comes the money. It's expected to be fully healthy entering spring training. He had Tommy John surgery back in August of 2023.

That was the second Tommy John surgery of his career. I think figures to be a pretty polarizing pitcher for fantasy in 2025. The early ADP is 122.9 for McClan right after Zach Gallen and Jack Flaherty and right before Carlos Ordone and Sunny Gray. So off the top of my head, it's like somewhere in like the SP 25 to 35 range for McClanahan. But we talked last

week, Chris, and some people have McClanahan ranked as a top 10 pitcher for next year. So it's, yeah. That's too aggressive for a guy coming back from his second Tommy John surgery. And I do want to point out. Like, clearly there is a upside here. But I don't think there's any way you can look at Shane McClanahan coming back from a second Tommy John surgery and say, as long as he's healthy, he's a must start pitcher. I would like to believe as long as Shane McClanahan is healthy, he's a must start pitcher.

It is not at all a guarantee based on what we've seen in his major league career and then knowing that he's coming back from a second Tommy John surgery, something that like there are not a lot of success stories here. Like Jameson Tyone is one of the best double Tommy John guys. Well, I mean, just look how it's gone for Walker Bueller. Yeah. I mean, there are like Nathan Avaldi. It's worked out.

But yeah, that's a good point. It's a much lower success. There are successes, but it's a much lower success rate. And I hear all your points there. I only rank Shane McClanaghan 42nd at starting pitcher. And when we get to starting pitcher, it's a common theme in my starting pitcher rankings. How do I have this guy ranked so low? So it's partly just a crowded position, McClanahan getting crowded out to 42.

But I never would have imagined going into that process that I'd have him so low. Speaking of the raised, Tropicana Field suffered nearly $56 million worth of damages from the hurricane, and they're hoping it can be repaired for 2026, but almost certainly will not be 14. 2025 and they'll likely be forced to play in a minor league ballpark I think all of next season so we I've heard Duned Eden kind of thrown out there and that's where the Blue Jays played a couple years ago the the COVID year so yeah well short right field fence we'll just have to wait and see there on on Tampa Bay Charlie Morton plans to pitch again in 2025 I thought he was

supposed to retire like five years ago but he just keeps coming back he's still okay and like a streamer sense and whatever right matchups or something like that. The twins may move Griffin Jacks to the rotation next season. Last three years as a reliever 306 ERA 103 whip. Over 10K per 9.

His strikeout jumped way up this year. He has a five pitch mix. Two of those pitches have a whiff rate over 45%. He came up as a starter originally Griffin Jackson's, but it was a really bad rookie season and then he was great as a reliever after that.

So just something to monitor because again, we've seen success stories in recent years with relievers turned starters. You know Spares had a really good piece on this in The Athletic on Wednesday talking about looking at relief pitchers who could make the move to the rotation.

He mentioned both Griffin Jacks and Jeff Hoffman, two names that have been rumored to be potentially making that transition. So just worth checking that out because we saw some success stories last year especially. Some early hot stove warm stove, not really warm, like you're thinking about turning the stove on, but you haven't done it? I don't know, it's way too early in the process.

You're preheating it. Yeah, yeah, let's see. Let's go with that. Apparently, the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Orioles are the most likely landing spots for Garracrochay. Alec Boehm is on a trade block, and Nick Povetta is almost certainly not going to accept the qualifying offer. Back into early outfield rankings, and we've got like 10, 15 minutes left, so let's just see how many of these names we get through.

outfielders 16 to 18. Scott has O'Neill Cruz, Teoska Hernandez, and Anthony Santander. And Chris has Christian Yelich, Anthony Santander, and O'Neill Cruz. These are names we've talked about on previous podcasts. I guess just a reminder for everyone

that O'Neill Cruz was moved to the outfield toward the end of last season. And 2025 is the last time for now that he will have shortstop and outfield eligibility. Every year after that, we assume it'll just be outfield for O'Neill Cruz.

yeah and um yeah he was a 2020 guy this past year kind of disappointingly so but uh still has still has all those exciting tools still has he's hit the hardest ball in the majors he's each of the last two years right and so um the only player besides junk harlowe stan and i believe to have the hardest hit ball in the majors in a season i really want to at Teoska Hernandez and Anthony Santander here for me at 1718. And to me, they're kind of tied together. I see Chris has them separated. But to me, they are decidedly second tier in the outfield, but a very safe, very safe second tier outfielders.

So they are, I like to have these demarcations in my rankings, particularly deep positions or plentiful positions, outfield and starting pitcher where it's it's so difficult to parse all these players. Above them, ending with O'Neill Cruz, are the outfielders who I think need to be drafted in the early rounds. And below them are ones I'm less sure need to be drafted in the early round. So I might slide Teosker Hernandez and Anthony Santander up or down, depending on how my opinions change on players like

O'Neill Cruz and James Wood above them and below them as we'll soon see Michael Harris and Wyatt Langford. Maybe I slide them behind Harris and Langford as things play out and I become more confident in those two again. But that's

how I view Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander's placement in my rankings. I think landing spot could have a lot to do with that as well right, Scott? Because they're both free agents So, you know. Yeah, I mean, I can't imagine Santander ending up in a much worse position than he was just in with the Orioles. Teoscar Hernandez could end up in a worse position.

But I think there's a good chance Hernandez just returns to the Dodgers. So we'll see. Yeah, hopefully so. Outfielders 19 through 21. Scott has Michael Harris, Wyatt Langford, and Mike Trout. And Chris has Teoska Hernandez, Brian Reynolds, and Brenton Doyle. So some clear differences here. We didn't get to talk about Michael Harris earlier, Chris,

which you had higher in your ranks at outfielder 15. So I guess now is a good time to do that. He dealt with some injury this past season, took a step back, but he also vastly underperformed his expected stats. So I kind of just want to give Michael Harris a mulligan and say, all right, let's try again in 2025. Early ADP, you're not getting any discount, really, on Michael Harris.

Yeah, and look, like, he, underperformed, that underperformance was still 150 game pace of pretty close to 25 homers and 15 steals with, you know, surprisingly mediocre counting stats. But again, I think we all expect the Braves lineup to be better than it was last season. So I think the counting stats will be there. I'm not really that concerned about that. I think he's a very, very good bet for batting average, I think he's not a five category superstar in that batting average might be the only category he's actually a standout in, but I think he's at least like a B in every category. And potentially could be a lot more than that.

It's got two names here that you are higher on are Langford and Mike Trout. And, you know, Langford, we already spoke about mostly a letdown season, had that huge September where he hit 300 with eight home runs, seven seals and a 996 OPS, and Mike Trout, you're wearing the shirt. I see that, Scott. I am. I'm wearing his jersey here.

I thought that was for Joe Adele. I thought it was Taylor Ward. No. Mike Trout, look, when he went down with injury, I think either at the time or towards the end of the season, we were talking about where he might get drafted this year or how many games he's likely to play. moving forward. It's just

it's been a rough go for Mike Trout the past couple of years. He played a current low 29 games and he's only played 41% of his available games over the past four years and he's now 33 years old. So I would almost bank on him playing like less than 100 games but

I don't think anyone, obviously no one knows. Yeah, so he's tricky player to rank obviously for all the reasons you gave. This is by far the lowest he's ever ranked even for me. being the one who's the highest on him, ranking him 21st in the outfield. And I decided to put him there because that's the point in the rankings

where I determined that everybody left. They may have a lot of upside, but they're either volatile profiles, like a Brenton Doyle, for instance, or a Lawrence Butler, let's say, volatile unproven profiles. Or just kind of boring, like a Brian Reynolds or a Brandon Nimmo type. And so Mike Trout is the last, well, I have Luis Robert right behind him. So similar sort of concerns there. But put them two together, Trouton and Roberts.

Like they're your last chance at potentially a superstar level outfielder without taking a huge risk on profile. Again, like with the Doyle or Butler. If that makes sense. That was my rationale for Ranking Trout where I do. he's played only 41% of his team's games over the past four years. So the risk is obvious. But it is a little like Chris Sale, you know, guy in his mid-30s, four, the exact same number actually injury riddled years.

But throughout the injuries like Chris Sale, Mike Trout, still looked like the studliness was still obvious. And so if he could just find a way to stay on the field, it was a torn meniscus that knocked him out this year. Twice. Right. I would say not a recurring injury, but the injury actually did recur, which is why he ended up missing the rest of the season. But you would presume he's not going to tear that meniscus again now. And that doesn't mean something else won't happen to him.

Of course, that's certainly possible. But it is a little like Chris Sale's situation where just things keep happening to him. he produces when they're not happening to him, but they just keep happening to him. And you would hope his luck would turn at some point. And if it happens to turn in 2025, you're going to get a huge value, even if you follow my rankings.

Outfielders 22 through 24, Scott, you have Luis Robert, Brandon Nimmo, and Brian Reynolds. And for Chris, it's James Wood, Mike Trout, and Wyatt Langford. So all names that we've heard

throughout the course of this podcast already. We didn't get to talk about Luis Robert, Chris, who you have ranked as your 14th, outfielder. Scott has down at 22. I almost wonder if maybe you guys are ranking based on, like Scott's ranking based on current situation and Chris, maybe you're projecting a trade this offseason and just a change of scenery, which I assume would have to help Luis Robert. I'm hoping for that. Yes. I kind of write 2024 off as just like the worst case scenario of all

worst case scenarios for Luis Robert where he's on this hopeless team, he gets hurt fairly early on, it's just like, look, we've all had days at work weeks, months, maybe full seasons where you're like, I'm not really

feeling it today. And if you were playing on the worst accounting team of all time, and you were the best accountant on your team, and maybe the only qualified accountant on your own team.

That could take a toll mentally. And so I'm pretty much willing to write this season off for Luis Robert. I wish we had more than the two seasons out of five of him playing like a difference maker. But I know that ability is there. I know the skills are there. He still hit the ball hard when he hit the ball. I don't think he's going to be a 33% strikeout rate guy moving forward.

I do think he's going to continue to run wherever he is. There aren't a lot of guys with 30, 30 upside, and Luis Robert has it. And I think he's going to see one of the most traumatic lineup upgrades you could ever possibly hope for, even if he went to like the 23rd best offense in baseball. I would guess like the 23rd best offense in baseball scored. What do you think? 200 more runs than the White Sox last year? Do you think that's overselling it?

Probably not. The White Sox had the worst. I think they scored the fewest runs in a non-strike short in season since the 60s last year. Let's see. So the Mariners, 170 more runs than the White Sox. I slightly exaggerated. But that's what we're dealing with here. I did not fact-check this,

but I saw this tweet from Cotify Baseball earlier on Wednesday. Dantra Willis's career on base percentage was 287. The 2024 Chicago White Sox was 278. Yeah. No, it's, they, like, you know how the Marlins were terrible last year? Like had an awful offense and every time a pitcher was going up against the Marlins, we'd be like, yeah, start them.

The Marlins scored 130 more runs in the White Sox. last year. Almost a run per game. It is impossible to overstate how bad this White Sox team was. Well, and that's why I'm not going to assume he's traded. Sure. He's a good chance he's traded. He has team options for 2026 and 2027, so they don't have to rush out and trade him.

And if he's traded, I'll move him up. But I'll probably only move him up to the 15, 16 range, like to James Wood and O'Neill Cruz in my rankings ahead. of Teasca Hernandez and Anthony Santeer, let's say, even if he winds up in a favorable position, Luis Robert, the profile's always made me nervous. And his 2024, I feel like, earned a discount. Like, I'm happy to draft him at a discount,

but if I can't get him out a discount, I don't really care to draft him. Because, like, that's, I want to take advantage of the discount. I think that's what is 2024 earned. but if I can't get a meta-discount, it's just not worth it to me. I don't know that I expressed that as well as I hope to. I do need to fact-check myself. The White Sox were the lowest scoring team in a non-strike-shortened season since 1971.

Not since the 1960s. I apologize. It was only 53 years. I believe 1972 was a strike-shorten season. Yeah. You really sold them short there, Chris. How could you do that? I apologies to Jerry Rinesdorf and Chris Gets.

I'm going to quickly read. off the remaining outfielders in the top 30 for each of you guys. For Scott 25 through 30, Sayas Suzuki, Riley Green, Lawrence Butler, Spencer Steer, Brenton Doyle, and Randy Rosa Rana. And for Chris, it's Riley Green, Jurksson Profar, Stephen Kwan, Lawrence Butler, Ian Hap, and Sayas Suzuki. I'll throw it your guys way if there's a name or two that you just want to quickly touch on here from that group. I just have to mention Valentine's Day may have come early because I think I love Lawrence Butler. Power, speed,

hits the ball hard, barrels it up, expected stats, back up everything he did. Obviously, he went nuclear for a few months last year. Some inconsistencies,

of course. He was better against lefties and he was against righties, which I love to see from a young left-handed bat. And now the hitting environment should be better. We're still waiting

to learn more about the park factors, but going from Oakland Coliseum to Sacramento, I think that the environment is going to be better. So I'm in. I haven't ranked yet, but I am in on Lawrence Butler. I'll throw you guys away.

Well, I'm pleased to hear that because I feel like I had trouble selling you guys on Lawrence Butler as the season was playing out. So it looks like we're all on board now. Chris and I have him ranked almost exactly the same. I was tempted to rank him higher. This was actually the, this stretch of the rankings was the most difficult for me in the outfield. because I was torn between how high to put the very safe but kind of boring contributors, which run 23 through 26 for me, Brandon Nimmo, Brian Reynolds, Sayas Suzuki, and Riley Green.

I was torn whether to put them higher or to put the exciting but volatile and or semi-unproven outfielders, which are my next four. Lawrence Butler, Spencer Steer, I guess, kind of fits that description, but Brenton Doyle and Randy Rosarena. Do I want the exciting potential power speed threats higher, or do I want the really safe number two type outfielders higher? And I opted for safe because I was thinking about deeper leagues and not wanting to make the mistake I've often made in like a 15-team rode a league where I sell out too much for upside. and wind up not having enough counting stats because that volatility comes back to bite me. So I was intentionally building in a little boring

in my outfield rankings by ranking them how I did. I might make an executive decision in a shallower draft, though, to just go ahead and elevate Lawrence Butler ahead of Brandon Nemo, for instance. My takeaway here is, I'm really going to have to move jerks and profile and Stephen Kwan down,

just because folks are out on pro far especially. I got at 250th overall in a draft that I'm doing right now, which you know I was never a big believer in jerks and pro far, but like, I think, did we talk about this the other day? He's going behind like Taylor Ward and Elliot Ramos and Saddam Raphael and like a bunch of,

mediocre guys. And I don't and then Stephen Kwan is a somewhat similar thing. I think I got him 175th overall and again, I'm not like the world's biggest Stephen Kwan fan, but that just feels like a great value every time. And if I rank them 26th and 27th, I thought that was reasonable. That's like 15 to 20 spots too high at the position relative to what their 80p is. And I'm not just going to rank based on AP obviously but it's like I don't have to rank them there so I probably won't and I haven't started on my overalls and there will be a lot of changes once I start to do overall rankings and you know have a better sense of what the overall landscape is but yeah those are those are the two that really stand out to me where it's just everybody hates them

it is it is shocking I I mean Taylor Ward yeah that is about as mid as mid as is it gets. And so I don't know why you'd settle for that rather than take a chance that maybe ProFar was everything he showed he was in 2024. I understand the skepticism. I tried to rank those two specifically, ProFar and Kwan. I tried to rank them as low as I could possibly justify it because I'm not enthusiastic about drafting either next year.

They're 34th and 35th for me. So they're lower than you. They're outside this top 30, but they're not nearly as. low is that early ADP data shows. And, you know, who comes after them? Cedric Mullins, Adoles Garcia, Peacrow Armstrong, who's kind of interesting, but like very unproven.

Lane Thomas. Like, it's not like you're passing up. Yeah. Like I said, that's as low as I could justify ranking profile and Kwan, just looking at the caliber of outfielder's left. And so I don't really understand. I think it's going to change. change once we get more data, once we get more platforms chiming in than just NFBC.

But it is pretty shocking right now how late they're going. Yeah, I do think both are tough to rank. As you guys have mentioned, I mean, we're coming off clear outlier seasons for both of them. I mean, Dirkson ProFar, the mid-career breakout out-of-nowhere type season. And then Stephen Kwan, all this power out of nowhere, it's like, will that carry over again? All of the underlying. Data for Jerks and ProFar backs it up. That's the weirdest thing is this is not like a

Oh, he had a 370 Babb and there's no way he's like The skills match what he did. We just don't believe in the skills. And I get that. I don't believe in the skills either. He was a top 12 player at the out of field this year, right?

Very, very close. I can't remember exactly the finish. Just recorded it two days ago. We should remember. He returned $22 worth of value in a 12 team league. And he's effectively free in a 12 team league if he's going 250.

Yeah. So yeah, that's one that just, I wanted to call Jerkson ProFar a bust. Now I'm going to have to come up with another name for my bus list when we write those in like February. Because I can't call him a bust if he's going to go outside the top 200. In fact, he might even be a sleeper for me. Very well, maybe.

From bust to sleeper, Jerks and ProFar right here on November 14th. You heard it here first. Last point that I want to bring up on Lawrence Buller because of course I've got to end with a positive again on Lawrence Butler. Steamer, not that you want to put too much into projections. Again, it's early in the projections process as well.

Steamer has Lawrence Butler as the 17th ranked outfielder heading into 2025. So just thought I would end with that. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.