Fantasy Baseball Today - Early 2026 Overvalued Players to Fade! (12/30 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 30, 2025

Junior Caminero is a fade (5:52)?? ... Yoshinobu Yamamoto is being overvalued early on (11:15). ... Don't buy Pete Alonso his first season in Baltimore (18:20). ... James Wood struggled mightily in the second half (21:55). ... Logan Webb is a WHIP killer (24:25). ... Do not buy Aroldis Chapman's magical season (28:00). ... Why are Freddy Peralta and Josh Naylor overvalued (30:06)? ... News (38:15): Pete Fairbanks is joining the Marlins. ... Fade Byron Buxton and Carlos Estevez based on early ADP (47:56). ... Oneil Cruz just hit .200 (51:35)!! ... We might be expecting too much from Eury Perez (56:20). ... Drake Baldwin likely won't get DH opportunities (59:48). ... We wrap up with the rest of our overvalued fades (1:02:27). Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. What's up and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, December 30th. I am Frank Sanfell joined by Chris Towers.

The holidays were a great time. We had our positive show last week, Chris, handing out ADP gifts. Everybody got one. Today on the show, we're going the other way. We are handing out ADP lumps of coal. That's right. Those, we believe, are overvalued based on early ADP. Plus, we have some smaller moves to talk about.

Pete Fairbanks to the Barlands, Zach Eflin back to the Orioles. But that's where we land, Chris. We got our positivity out of the way. Now we got to get all the bad out of the way before the new year. You know, you just got to, you know, just air it out, get everything out there. And that's what we'll do. This feels like home. You know, love wallowing and negativity and despair.

No, I like to be positive. I like to be open-minded. This is, it's no fun to say players are overvalued or as we'll do in a couple of weeks to call guys bus. And, you know, like, I'm never rooting against these guys. but somebody's got to be overvalued, right? It's got to happen sometimes, and there are a few. Yeah, I mean, half the battle is knowing who not to draft, right, at current ADP. So that is where we will go.

How was the holiday, man? How's everything going? I'm glad we have an extra week off. My family was here. I love them. It's exhausting. You know, I don't have a giant apartment. What you see behind me, that's the whole apartment, actually.

that's just it's just this one room my wife is sleeping in a in a bunk on top of this no that's not sure but it's a small apartment and we had my mom and sister here it's exhausting to have that many people you got to look after them make sure they're watered and fed and you know all that stuff so it's just it's a lot i'm looking forward to a week where god willing no breaking news we don't have to record any emergency podcasts and we'll just record our two little podcasts and hit the new year running Based on the way the market is moving, Chris, I don't think we'll have anything to do this week. I'm hopeful. You know, we're in that time right now where I realize the internet, this is one thing that the internet all agrees on. We are in this time right now between Christmas and New Year's where nothing really happens. Like, life just kind of stands still for a couple of days and then we get to New Year's and then it's like, oh, right, we all got to go to the gym again and do stuff like that. But, you know, between Christmas and New Year's, like, what do you even call these days? They don't feel real.

There's a great meme that I'm sure you won't get, because it's a Lord of the Rings reference. No chance. It's after Frodo gets stabbed by the Witch King of Angmar. I hate that part. And he goes into like a trance, and he wakes up in Rivendale and Elrond is looking over him. And he's like, the white washes over him. He's like, oh, no. That's what the week after Christmas, but between Christmas and New Year's.

That's how that goes. such a weird time. Anyway, let's get into ADP lumps of coal. These are overvalued fades based on early NFBC ADP, and we will go in order of ADP, so we will start at the top, the players you care about most, and I might as well just get myself in trouble right away, Chris. And of course, I have to talk about this one while Scott isn't here, because obviously he loves this player. Junior Camerro. Bo, Hiss! Ha! Raise fans everywhere are yelling at me. And I hate to do this because a young budding superstar can very easily just get better in his second full season and just make me look completely foolish.

Completely in the realm of possibility. His ADP right now is 14.4. And he just finished the 17th overall player in Roto, the 16th best hitter in Head to Head Points Leagues. Again, he's only 22 years old. He's awesome so far. I just hate that we have this sliver of unknown, right? With him going back into Tropicana

and again, it might not even matter. He might just be so good that it doesn't matter where he hits. But this past season in Steinbrenner Field, Junior Camerreiro hit 313 with a 954 OPS. On the road, he hit 218 with a 743 OPS. Very small sample size. He's only played 19 career games in the TROP and they were when he got called up as a 19-year-old or whatever

it was. He hit 260 with a 747 OPS. But what we do know is that Tropicana Field is a better pitching environment. It's sometimes hard for players to see the ball there with the ball. Ball seems to move differently at Tropicana Field. I haven't actually seen like a good explanation for why. Is it the only like truly domed stadium like not retractable? It's the only one that has like no Egress, is that a term? Is that the right word? That might be right. I've heard some people throw out that it's so humid in Florida,

so having a humidor there just makes things kind of move differently. I don't know how true that it's or not. But yeah, I mean, all plausible theories. If you look at park factors this past season, Steinbrenner Field ranked 10th in overall Park Factor for offense. 7th in Home Run Park Factor. From 2022 to 2024, Tropicana Field ranked, 28th in overall Park Factor.

16th and home run park factor. So again, it's just like a downgrade in environment, a downgrade in the park. The lineup is not great. They already traded away Brandon Lau. I just, it adds a level of unknown that I wish wasn't there, Chris. And if he was just playing in the same environment as last year, I would probably be totally fine with his ADP. So I just don't want to pay an early second round pick to find out if Tropicana Field will matter or not for Junior Camerro. So I'm, I'm mostly okay with the price. It's kind of like him and Nick Hurts. I'm probably not going to be the one that pays that price. Same.

But I don't really, like, I don't look at it and, like, shriek. Like, oh, my God, that's the worst pick you could possibly make. I don't think so. But I do think it's worth pointing out that over the past decade, there have been nine hitters who have had a home run to fly ball rate of at least 25% in over 1,000 plate appearances. And for the most part, it's elite power hitters, Aaron Judge, Shahi Otani. What a surprise.

John Carlos St. Then you get like James Wood. Yeah, okay. Joey Gallo, Kyle Schwarber, obviously. Miguel Sino, Domingo, Domingo, Domingo Santana. And I look at all of that, and it's just to say that it's really hard to maintain a 25% strikeout rate. And Junior Comernero did that. You mean?

25% home run to fly ball rate, sorry. And Junior Cominero had that last season. And that's pretty much an elite rate. And if that goes down. down to 20%, which is still a very, very good mark. Well, then you got to take off what, 5, 20% of his home runs from last year. Yeah, you'd probably lose like seven or eight there. So yeah, you're already, you're already, I think you probably look at him and say it's probably a 35 homer expectation.

Yeah. And obviously, look, 45 homers within the realm of possibility, but most players don't hit 45 homers every season. Now, Aaron Judge hasn't hit 45 homers every season. Things can go wrong. Shohei Otani doesn't hit 45 homers every season, Kyle Schwarber, et cetera, et cetera. And so does he do enough if he's a 37 homer guy? He's probably still a really good player,

but it's probably, you know, does the strikeout rate tick up in Tropicana? That's a possibility. I think mostly it's the uncertainty. But it's also just to, point out that just because he did that at 21 doesn't mean it's just that's the baseline forever right that's the same thing with nick kurtz it was an awesome season guys fluctuate from one year to the next and common arrow swing is um not finely tuned for power or batting average yet really

and so you know he's not like a huge pulled air raid he doesn't hit like a ton of line drives so there are definite ways where he can, like I could see a 40 homer season where junior Kamenara hits 285, 290 next season. I can see him taking that step forward. Oh yeah, absolutely. He has, I think, the highest bat speed in baseball. If not, it's top three. Like, he's clearly incredibly skilled. So I'm going to have to draft him at some point. But he's not going to be like every time he's on the board and I'm picking 13th, he's going to be my pick. All right. Let's keep things moving here, Chris. And the first player up for you is the World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto with an ADP of 24. He is the SP4 off the board. That is a

big talking point this offseason. We know that there's a pretty clear top three with scuba crochet and schemes in some order. And then if you ask 10 different analysts, you might get 10 different answers on who the SP4 should be drafted. But right now it is Yamamoto. He's going 13 picks after Garrett Crochet and eight picks ahead of Christopher Sanchez. So represents this weird kind of little island of starting pitcher ADP like at the two three turn in a 12 team league. Why are you fading at that cost? Well, part of it is just how much better of a season do we really think he's likely to have next year? I guess the wins were a little low, only 12, although despite pitching for the Dodgers, he's only going to make about 30 starts. He's going to make about 10% fewer

starts than other pitchers who stay healthy just by dint of being in a six-man rotation. That's always going to be a six-man rotation. That's the key thing, right? Other teams will go to six-man rotations at times. The Dodgers live in a six-man rotation. They're never going to waver from that. With Yamamoto, with Otani, with Sasaki in the rotation, it's always going to be a six-man rotation.

There's a ceiling here in innings. And do we really think he's going to improve on a 249 ERA or a 0.99 whip or 201 strikeouts? I mean, sure we could see marginal improvements, I guess. but I think it's more likely that it's like a 280 ERA. It's still really good. That's awesome. But it's probably not just a 250 ERA forever. It's probably not a sub one whip forever.

And so, yeah, maybe you give him 14 wins, but a little regression in the counting, the rate stats. But what it comes down to is just if everyone has their best case scenario season, I think he's probably top 12, but it's borderline. Like I think Logan Gilbert's best case scenario season is better than Yoshchner. Yoshenobu Yamamoto's best case scenario season. I think Jacob de Grom's, like absolute best case scenario season, could be better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

I think Hunter Brown's best case scenario is probably a little better. Hunter Green's best case scenario. Now, these guys all have risk and maybe Yamamoto's a little safer. I'm just arguing that he should be closer to the group behind him rather than a clear outlier among the starting pitchers going, you know. What is like about 10 spots ahead of the the number two or number five SP? Yeah, I think he's closer to that group than he is to that top three. And I think what it is is just there's just an inherent inflation for that next guy.

Yeah, you know, like those three guys are off the board. Someone's got to go next. It's Yamamoto. He's not my SP4, but I don't, I wouldn't bang the table that you're wrong if you have him that way. Yeah. So for me, it's just you're paying. a premium for a guy that I don't think is a premium pitcher relative to the rest of his

group. I totally agree with that too and we've said this all offseason that next tier after the top three pitchers it's kind of SP4 through 14 and I think the biggest case that you can make against drafting Yamamoto is you could get Jacob de Grom 20 picks later

two rounds later and again the skills look identical. The skills are pretty similar there and maybe a little more strikeout for Yamamoto although it's Jacob de Grom right like there might be. There might be more injury risk with DeGron, but like Yamamoto had a shoulder thing two years ago, right? Missed a bunch of time as rookie season, yeah.

Anything can pop up. I actually have Yamamoto as my SP4 in Roto in category leagues. And I really like the skills. He's up over 10K per nine. He gets ground balls. He limits hard contact. I think he represents a good floor ceiling situation here, although the ceiling is a little bit capped because of that six-man rotation. When you draft Yamamoto as the SP4, you're almost drafting him just to get a top 10 pitcher, right? It's like you're not drafting him thinking, oh, he can be the SP1. He's not going to challenge Gary Crochet. But if he stays healthy for his 30 starts, like you feel pretty good that he's going to finish as a top 10 starting pitcher. So I agree with that for sure. I think that's part of it too. Like he just finishes the SP 7. I don't know

that he's going to get better, but you're almost kind of drafting him for safety, which is what he provided this past season. Let's take our first break. Before we do that, make sure to drop a like on this video. We have a lot of fun stuff coming up in January. We're going to to up the frequency of this podcast. We'll have three full-length podcasts per week. Looks like we are going to have team previews that are coming out every day from like the middle of January to the middle of February. Those are going to be shorter 10-minute podcast with like beat writers from every team. It's going to be a lot of fun stuff. So if you haven't subscribed, make sure to do that so you don't miss anything that's coming your way in

January and beyond. Let's take that break. We'll be back right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today. We are revealing some ADP lumps of coal, names that we are fading based on the early NFBC ADP. And next up is one that we've talked a little bit about it. I think we're going to be mostly in agreement here, Chris. Pete Alonzo with an ADP of 27.9, just first off the bat, I don't love drafting a player that first year of signing a mega deal in a new city. It's not whatever, it's not as big as like a Juan Soto deal or anything like that.

But it's a pretty big deal. Five years, $155 million for Pete Alon. So I don't love that part of it. And second, Alonzo is going two full rounds ahead of Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Raphael Devers. Alonzo might be better than all three, but is he two rounds better than all three? He made some real changes this past season. He hit the ball harder than ever before, expected stats for the best of his career. If that part of his game is now real, then he might.

He might actually be two rounds better than those guys. I am willing to bet a little bit on some regression again, maybe a little bit. bit of struggle first year in a new place. And if he goes back anywhere close to what he did in 2023 and 2024 with the lower batting average again, I think there's just, there's a little room to be disappointed based on where Pete Alonzo is getting drafted right now. And I think you might be able to get similar production from some of those other guys a couple rounds later.

So as a result, I just don't see myself drafting Pete Alonzo early third round of a 12th team league. I've got him right at his ADP. I've got him 29. You said it's 29, 28. So I guess I'm a little lower, but it's negligible. The bigger thing for me is I'm just higher on Harper Olson Endeavors. Or really Harper Endeavors.

I'm a little higher on Olson, but I think he's a little bit of a step back from those guys. But I've got Alonzo Harper Endeavors all in the 30 to 40 range of my rankings, or 29 to 40, whatever it is. So it's less that I'm out on Pete Alonzo at this price and more that just I don't know if paying the pre-enzo. This is a type of player I generally think just it doesn't make sense to pay the premium for their kind of higher end outcome seasons. We've seen this with Matt Olson where home runs are relatively rare events. And if you go from hitting 47 or whatever Alonzo hit last year, 44, to hitting 40, that's really not that big of a difference. over because one fewer home run every 20 games or so. He actually only hit 38 homers, but it did it with a 272

batting average and 126 RBI. But for me, well, that also, the batting average part is also just, that's been a huge problem for Pete Alonzo. I know he, you know, the quality of contact was much better last season, but he's just a guy who has bounced around. Always productive, but it's always like some years he's a second rounder. some years he's a fifth rounder it generally doesn't seem like a great idea

to pay for the high end years when we know how much variance there is within his skill set yeah and again it's just like that profile the slugger who batting average can fluctuate a little bit I'd rather just take the shot on someone who's gonna give me power

end speed in that range that early in the draft because it's hard to find those guys so more likely to draft Matt Olson this year than Pete Alonzo I think yeah I mean just based on playing the value game, right? It's like not, maybe not heads up in the third round, but if you can get Olson a round or two later,

it's like, okay, give me... Feels like a pretty easy call you. Another awesome third round hitter and then take Matt Olson around later, something like that. All right, Chris, let's go back over to you. James Wood, an ADP of 30.5, the 10th outfielder off the board. We know that overall he had a productive season. 31 homers, 15 steals, but man, that second half,

223 batting average, 690 OPS, 39% strikeout rate. outside, I guess, of the second half. Why are you fading James Wood at this cost? So it's mostly, as I often say, full season statistics are more predictive generally than partial season statistics. And so I don't think you just look at James Wood's second half

and say, aha, that's who he is forever. That would be silly. But it was such an extreme poor performance, especially when it came to the contact skills, that it gives us a, It gives us a glimpse into what it can look like when it goes wrong for James Wooden. I'm not expecting it to go wrong. He's still a top 40 player for me.

I still think a third round pick is a fine gamble for him, given the upside. But he was so bad in the second half. I mean, 40% strike out rate. That's unplayable. You can't, like, you can't. There's nothing you can do to overcome that as a hitter. And so I just do think there's some real downside risk being introduced for James Wood, who also didn't run nearly as much as we expected last season.

So that's another concern where he doesn't have that insulating factor for his skill set, where, okay, yeah, he might hit 230, but he might be a 30-30 guy as well. We thought that might be the case for him, and it really hasn't been. So that that's my concern here. Yeah. And I'll point out similarly to Yamamoto. I think that there's a player you might be able to get similar production from who's going, you know, 20 picks later right now. I mean, if you look at Wyatt

Langford, they're very similar, just, you know, young players, they were stud prospects, you're going to get power and speed. In fact, you're likely going to get more speed from Wyatt Langford. He just went 20-20, and again, he's going, you know, around pick 50, and James Wood is up here at 30. So I don't see a huge difference between those two. So as a result, yeah, James Wood might just be a little bit overdrafted right now. Also, look, he is young enough where he could just

take another step and just, you know, he'll cut down the strikeouts. Maybe he hits like 270, goes like 30, 20 or 40, 20. Definitely in the range of outcomes. But I think we need to see more before we're expecting anything close to that from James Wood. Keep things moving here and go over to my next one. And I don't know how people are going to feel about this one. I don't know how you're going to feel about this one. I have Logan Webb as a little overvalued here.

His ADP is 55.6. I think that cost is totally fine in a head head points league. He just provides so much volume. But as somebody who owned Logan Webb in multiple leagues last year where whip was a problem late in the season and I just could not improve it, I can't spend a top five round pick on Logan Webb when he's going to give you a whip over 120

and do that over 200 innings. The fact that he provides so much volume, he actually hurts you even more in that category because it's counting more than other pitchers who maybe if this pitcher has a really good whip, but they only give you 150 innings. It just doesn't count as much towards, you know, your overall statistics throughout the course of the season.

So he's being drafted as the SP 13. He finished SP19. I don't think it's egregious or anything. I just, is there a huge difference between him and Framber Valdez? I know I'm making that case for like every player right now, but they've always kind of been tied together in fantasy. It's, you know, it's less than a strikeout per inning most years for Logan Webb. It's a good ERA, an okay whip.

usually lots of innings. I mean, I kind of expect that from Framberval does again, and he's going 40 picks later right now. So I just, I'm not going to do the Logan Webb thing. I have him a little bit lower. I have him like around SP, I don't know, 18 or something like that. So I'm just, I'm not going to do it at this cost in a Roto or Categories League. I think it's totally fine in a points league, though.

Yeah, I think better in points. Roto, everything you said about the whip is, it's something to keep in mind. I think that's just something I want to stress. is not, hey, Logan Webb's a bad pick here or whatever. It's because I have him as my SP 18 at 60th overall. So again, a little lower, but not crazy out of line with where he's going. But for me, it's just, it's easy to forget about whip. And that's been probably my biggest mistake when it comes to my pitching over the years is I just chase strikeout upside and don't think as much

about those guys who can really wreck your whip. And Webb, we talk about Webb and Framber especially. Max Fried, I think, is in that category. Maybe Kevin Gosman on a lower end. These guys who are like anchors for your rotation, guys who give you that big floor of, you know, the 190 innings, 200 strikeouts, usually good wins in ERA. Web can actually be an anchor on your whip in a way.

that is hard to overcome when you're spending a fifth round pick on that. Yeah, so, and it's tough, especially if you draft Logan Webb and you plan on taking what you would consider a whip specialist. This happened to me in a league where I took Bryce Miller, right? And sometimes things just don't work out the way you think, right? I thought, oh, Bryce Miller, you know, a 105, 110 whip, something like that. Like, he'll help balance out Logan Webb if there's any trouble there. And, you know, it just, obviously Bryce Miller had the season he and it just doesn't always work out the way that you expect. So unless you have a really, really good help in WIP

to kind of combat that, it's more than likely going to hurt you in that category. Again, that is Logan Webb. Again, I don't think he's a bad pitcher. I don't think he's like a full-on bust, like, you know, he's going to wreck your team or anything. But I personally just think he's a little bit overvalued here as a top 60 pick. Chris, over to you.

I'll roll this Chapman with an ADP of 55. He is the sixth reliever off the board. he just had one of the best seasons of his career like a borderline Hall of Fame career right now at 37 years old so my guess is you're expecting that not to happen again don't pay for a career year from a 37 year old is probably a pretty good

you probably won't get steered wrong too often if you have that as a principal and the walk rate was just such an outlier for his career 14.4% in 2024, 6.6% in 2025. That's major liability to a legit strength. And we're talking about 60 innings. It's just, it's so hard to say 60 innings represents a change in skill set for any player. Lots of starting pitchers have 60 inning stretches where they look great because that's a month and a half, two months for a starting pitcher.

We're inherently built working from small samples and incomplete data when it comes to relief pitchers. I just don't think it makes sense to pay a premium price for a guy coming off a career year at the most volatile position, especially when he'll be 38 years old. That one just actually feels pretty straightforward for me. Yeah, there are three relievers that are currently being drafted in the top 10 among closers right now that seem like pretty clear fades to me. and Chadman is one of them. The other one is Josh Hader. I need to learn more in spring training about the shoulder thing

and make sure that he's fine. Obviously, when he's healthy, the skills are amazing. And one we'll talk about a little bit later on is Carlos Estevez. I think in early drafts, relievers get pushed up. I totally get why.

You know, there are a lot of drafts going on that are drafting holds and you're not going to get the opportunity at a waiver wire. And Carlos Estevez is locked in a closer role right now, so I get it. But his skills are really, really scary. So we'll talk about that

a little bit later on. Chris, I'm going to throw two more your way here. You have Freddie Peralta at 63 ADP as the 15th starting pitcher off the board and Josh Naler with an ADP of 69. Nice. Ninth first basement off the board going just behind Ben Rice and Freddie Freeman. So Peralta, we know he was helped out by the 17 wins he had last year. Skills look pretty similar to most seasons for him.

And then Josh Naler, it's just 30 steals, right? like what do we do with Josh Nailer? Yeah, in Peralta's case, we spend a lot of time these days, you know, the last few years, especially talking about how hard it is to find like legit bust candidates or guys who are legitimately overvalued in fantasy baseball because we, we don't tend to do the, ah, look how low his ERA was, look how many wins he got, he's going to do that again. And we're kind of just doing that with Freddie Peralta. like this is a guy who has always been an SP2 like low end SP2

SP3 range maybe a little lower last season and then he has this outlier season with his ERA and wins that's basically the only thing for Freddie Peralta that was out of the out of the norm if you look at the the underlying stats okay the XERA was a little better than 2024 it was 347 compared to 384 but he outperformed that XERA by three quarters of a run. And the FIP and X FIP were right in line with where they've been the past couple of years.

And he's a top 12 SP now, I think, in ADP. And he's a, you know, a top 65 pick. SP 15, yeah. Okay, SP 15. He's the top 65 pick. He's at low in SP1. Yeah, he's an SP1 and a 15 team league, which is what this ADP is. And that's just for a guy who has gotten to 170 innings twice in his career, has dealt

with a lot of injuries, has dealt with a lot of volatility, both from one season to the next and just within his seasons. This just feels like an obviously mispriced guy, where we're just looking at ERA and wins and not really looking any deeper than that. And we're usually better than that as a community. So Freddie Peralta feels like one of the most obvious, like this guy should be going 30 picks later and it just doesn't make sense for me. And then Naylor, it's just the uncertainty around the strikeouts. He's a solid. Steels.

Steels, yes. He is a solid, sorry, in, you know, Christmas mode. Josh Naylor is a solid hitter. He doesn't really have, like, huge weaknesses. Generally, pretty good batting average, although there's been a lot of fluctuation there. I think he hit, what, 2.45, two years ago, 290 something last year. RBI, always a strength. home runs a little light for a first basement but he's not a nothing there it's you know usually

20 plus maybe 25 i think he has 1 30 homer season was it two years ago yep um and so it's like he's gonna be pretty good is he going to be worth a top 60-ish pick i think you have to bet on him being a stolen base source him coming back to seattle helps i i don't discount that because he was on a 54 steel pace in Seattle, if I'm remembering correctly, which is just ridiculous. If he's a 15 to 20 steel guy, he's probably worth this pick because you know the rest of the production is going to be there in some shape, whether it's the high batting average, whether it's the bigger power numbers. I bet on lower power, batting average feels a little risky for me in T-Mobile, although he hit very well there. It's worth pointing out. He did not

have the usual Seattle slump. If it's eight stolen bases, that's probably the 100th pick. And you paid a four-round premium for stolen bases that all of a sudden you can't count on as well. The one thing I'll bring up about Nailer is that he has finished as a top 40 overall player

two years in a row. And you used to say this about Zander Bogarts. You don't always know how he's going to get there, but he just kind of finds a way to be productive and return that value that you need. So that's why I'm a little hesitant.

Like, I get it, like, not banking on the steals, but expecting, you know, a 270-ish batting average with 20 to 25 homers and 12 to 15 steals, that's probably worth it. It might not sound like it, but especially when... It's a broad range of skills. Yeah, when he gives you all the RBI, too, he just makes so much contact with runners on base

that it just winds up working out for Josh Naler one way or another. It doesn't make it hard to kind of project the stats for your team, You just don't know exactly what he's going to give you. But that's hard. That's harder than we think anyway. In a points league, I mean, I think he's just rock solid regardless. On the flip side of that, Freddie Peralta, I will point out, I do think he's a little bit overvalued in category leagues.

Definitely overvalued if this is his cost in a points league. Yes. Because he just does not provide the volume on a per start basis. Last year, he went six plus innings in just 13 of 33 starts. And that has always been a weakness for Freddie Peralta. He has managed to stay healthy in terms of, of, you know, giving like 160, 170, 70

innings the past three years. Yeah, the last three seasons especially, yeah. But on a per-star basis, he's usually like in the five and change range. He doesn't actually give you that many quality starts. Which also makes the 17 wins hard to bet on. Yeah, agreed. All right, well, quickly mention these next two

since we spoke about them on the previous episode, but again, if you want to hear more, go back and listen to the early ADP gifts. Haraldo Pardomo, I think he's overvalued. Chris thinks he's undervalued, so we spoke a lot about that. And then the inverse of that, Chris is out on Michael Bush. He thinks he's overvalued.

I think he's a little undervalued. So we spoke about both of these players again on the previous episode. Make sure to check that out. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll quickly hit on the news and notes and then get into the rest of our overvalued fades. We'll do all that right after this. Welcome back in Fantasy at Baseball today.

Let's hit the news and notes. Still, not too much going on. It's a very, very slow market right now in baseball. But your Marlins, Chris. They signed Pete Fairbanks to a one-year, $13 million deal. And you know what? I'm happy for Pete Fairbanks. I'm happy for the Marlins.

But overall, as a host of a fantasy podcast, I'm pretty upset about this, Chris, because I've been telling people all year, the Marlins do not have a closer, and they never will ever again. But now they might have a closer. Yeah, I mean, I think Clayton McCullough's heart wants there to be no set, closer and I think it's probably going to be like a, well, like a raised situation where

other guys will get three or four saves. But if Pete Fairbanks stays healthy all year, I do think we're looking at probably not 40 saves, maybe not 30 saves, but high 20s if he stays healthy. Now, that's a big if. He has gotten to 60 innings exactly one time in his career. That was last season. He's dealt with some arm injuries. think there was some velocity regression the last couple of seasons that have made him

slightly less effective, although I think that the dip in effectiveness has perhaps been overstated at times. I think he's still a good enough closer, certainly. But he's not an elite guy, certainly. And there are questions about usage. There are questions about his ability to stay healthy that should keep the price relatively reasonable. Let's see if I can, I have. I had the last like 12 days or whatever. Let's let's see if I can get the last two weeks. I have it. If you think this is more useful,

there have been six drafts since Christmas. And so that's with everybody knowing Fairbanks is on the Marlins now. His ADP is 82. That's just behind Emilio Pagan and 11 picks ahead of Kenley Jansen. So does that sound like the right range? Like Pagan, Fairbanks, Kenley Jansen? That seems fine, yeah.

How would you rank? That's up about, you said 82? Yeah, it's like in the 80 to 95 range. Yeah, that's up about 30 to 40 picks from where he was before. And I don't think there was much risk of him not being a closer. And it's not like he landed in the best possible situation. The Marlins should win some close games, so that'll help. But yeah, I think that range is fine.

And it's worth noting it won't be 85 to 90 in most of your 12 team leagues. By the time spring rolls around, that range of closers will probably go 40 picks later. Yeah, I was just thinking like in the 120-ish range, something like that. Yeah, so if it's 120, I think that's fine, you know? Yeah. Next up we have Zach Eflin who is sticking around in Baltimore on a one-year $10 million deal with a mutual option for 2027. He is coming off an awful season. 593 ERA, 142 whip was never healthy.

He just dealt with injuries all season. he had an abdominal thing, then a strain lat, recurring lower back problems. He was amazing in 2023 and then he was okay, pretty good in 2024. It's a very late ADP right now. Are you at all excited in a deeper league to take a flyer on Zach Eflin? It is nice to have a deeper league target who, assuming he's right, can help you in whip. And that's what you can expect from Zach Eflin.

if he's healthy, which is a pretty big question. Now, he's a weird guy because he's been injury prone, but almost never like elbow and shoulder injuries. It's mostly knee and back stuff. Knee and back stuff, yeah. So I don't know, like, it's been so recurring that I do think you have to account for a lot of it. But as a late round, boring flyer who can help you with whip, I think he's okay. But I think you also throw him on the pile of late round picks.

where it's like, what does the early season schedule look like? You know, if he's pitching like at Yankee Stadium and then versus the Red Sox his first two starts, I think it's probably easy enough to skip him. But if it's, you know, I don't know, versus the Angels or something, then yeah, I think you can look Zach Fetham's way as early season, let's see what we get

and then drop if he looks bad. The updated Orioles rotation, by the way, Kyle Braddish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baws, Zach Eflin, Dean Kramer. that's it, right? We're getting somewhere. They have kind of been linked to Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez, so if you add one of those and,

look, Dean Kramer is fine, he is what he is, but like, all right, give Dean Kramer the boot for one of those. Then I think that's much more intriguing for the Orioles. As it is right now, I think that's fine, but they probably need one more piece, so we'll see. Yeah, I think having Dean Kramer either as your sixth starter or, you know, a spot starter just gives you, I feel a little better about that, even if it's not a huge difference maker in the rotation,

just because Rogers has some question marks, Bradditch has some question marks, Eflin has a lot of question marks. Boss stayed healthy last year, but obviously that's the first time in a while. So I do still think one more solid contributor in that rotation, not necessarily an ace, would make me feel a little bit better about it. All right, I'm going to quickly run through the rest of these. You tell me, if any of them matter. the Cubs signed Hunter Harvey to a one-year $6 million deal.

He was awesome back in 2023, took a step back in 24, and then was injured for most of the year. But I thought, man, $6 million, that's not nothing. So the Cubs must like Hunter Harvey. Yeah, it's not nothing. He was really good at one point, and let's see if he can get back there. It still feels like a relatively wide open bullpen situation right now.

so I wouldn't be shocked if he was in that mix, certainly. I mean, the expectation is that Daniel Polencia is the guy to start, right? I would assume so, but I don't think he's such a locked-in guy that we can't. That I would be shocked if someone else was the closer out of spring training even. The Marlins acquired outfielder Estuary Ruiz from the Dodgers for pitcher Adriano Marrero. And Ruiz feels like a short side platoon with somebody, I think. I mean, maybe he can beat out Griffin Conine in spring training. Maybe the Marlins make another move.

I have no idea. But Ruiz might matter at some point in leagues where you're desperate for steals. So I guess file his name away in some of those deeper formats. We have Xavier Edwards at home. You know what? We were talking beforehand. If nothing else, the Marlins will be the fastest team in baseball this year. So I guess that counts for something.

There was another guy that they had who's basically Estuary Ruiz. I can't remember his name now. It doesn't matter. Vidal Bruhan. Yeah, we got Vidal Bruhan at home. The A's signed Tyler Soderstrom to a seven-year, $86 million extension with a club option for 2033. The deal buys out at least three free agent years. The A's threw Soderstrom out in left field last season with the emergence of Nick Kurtz. And Soderstrom was really good out there. He finishes a gold glove finalist. So good for him. getting this extension here. His early ADP is 96. He's going after Vinnie Pasquantino

and ahead of Michael Bush. We haven't really talked about Soderstrum at all. I mean, it's probably, not that I don't spend too much time on it, but any quick thoughts on the ADP for Sodershom? Seems fine. I don't, it doesn't stand out as, especially, he is first base eligible, right?

Yeah, first base and DH. Yeah, I've got him at 90, a couple spots behind Vinie Pasquantino. A decent bit ahead of Michael Bush for me, but I think he's a little overvalued. So I think that's fine. Yeah, I like Sotershow. I think the power's legit. I do wonder single year defensive metrics are notoriously noisy.

And if he takes a step back and becomes unplayable there, it puts a little pressure on him. But I don't think that's really likely to matter except on the extreme ends where if he's not hitting, you're probably not going to miss it anyway, you know? The Red signed JJ Bladay to a one-year deal and then traded for Marlins outfielder Dane Myers. So that seems like a pretty natural platoon somewhere in the Reds outfield. Bladay pretty bad in 2025, but hit 243 with 20 homers the year prior.

Now he gets to play his home games in Great American Ballpark. So again, just a deep, very deep league name to file away. He might matter at some point. Again, that he should be on the sleeper hitters list. Pretty regularly, I would guess. Yeah. When they have a bunch of homes. When they have six home games, that's right.

And six righties on schedule. Blue Jay's pitching prospect, Ricky Teeteman, is expected to be fully healthy for spring training. He had Tommy John surgery in July of 2024. The Blue Jay's rotation is already pretty stacked, though, and they have a lot of depth even behind that. Like Jose Barrios and Eric Lauer on the outside looking in. So it's good news for Teeteman. I think it would be nice to see him in a maybe multi-inning relief role or something like that. don't think he's going to matter much next season,

but perhaps the following year, we can, you know, T, T, T, T,em, and get back into a starting role. I think that would be pretty hopeful long term for him. Let's get back into the overvalued fades here, Chris, and I guess we can move a little bit quickly through this last group. But next two up for me,

I've got Byron Buckson with an ADP of 77.4, the 17th outfielder off the board. This one sucks. Like, I don't want to be negative about Byron Buckson. I know how talented he is. He finally stayed somewhat healthy and reminded us. He hit 33 homers with 24 steals. Did that over just 126 games too?

Like, the guy is still a freak athlete. 3.7 fantasy points per game. That was better than Bobby Wood Jr., Francisco Lindor, Trey Turner. Again, he was awesome. But the time to draft Byron Buxton was last year. When his ADP was 218, I just don't want to be the one to pay up. If he plays 120 games,

he very likely outperforms this and, you know, we'll probably have a very good season once again, but I just don't want to be the one to bet on that. And the other name here is one I mentioned earlier. Carlos Estevez, he has an ADP of 83. Again, these early drafts, people are very aggressive on closers, especially ones that have a job right now. Estevez is the RP 11 off the board,

but the skills have taken a huge step back. Strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. The walks jumped back up after, Strong 2024. His K-minus walk rate ranked 11th out of 147 qualified relievers. So that's pretty bad. He gives up a ton of fly balls, a lot of barrels. And while he posted a 245 ERA, his ex-fip and his Sierra were in the mid-to-high fours. So that's pretty scary stuff there. Two talented relievers behind him as well. There's Lucas Erseg there. Whose strikeout rate also dropped. It might have just been like a team philosophy thing. But they also traded for Matt Strong.

who I think it's really good. So we'll see if Estabez can hold those guys off. But any thoughts here on these two? Byron Buxton at pick 77, Estabez at 83. Estevez is fairly straightforward. I think you covered it. The thing with Buxton is he was better last season than he typically is. He wasn't that much better.

Like between 2019 and 2024, so a six-season sample, he hit 253 with an 844 OPS. Last season, he had 264 with an 8-74, 878 OPS. That's pretty close. He averaged 37 homers and 16 stolen bases per 162 games in that stretch. Obviously, both of those paces were better last year, 35 and 24 in 126 games. But on the whole, Byron Buxton wasn't a dramatically different player last he didn't learn anything new about Byron Buxton. And when you're talking about a player's value jumping up as much as his is, he was like outside or almost outside of the top 200 last year.

year if I'm a yeah it was two to 20 yeah um I want new information if I'm pushing a guy up that much and I the only new information is that yeah he is capable of hitting of playing 126 games in a season but he was capable of that before last season so I just I can't justify this kind of jump he's an awesome player I genuinely one of my favorite baseball players of this generation I think he is a Hall of Fame talent. I know he is not going to be anywhere close to that, but like if that guy had played 150 games for a decade, we might be talking about him as a Hall of Famer.

He's that kind of player. Yeah. But he never did that. And all of a sudden we're cool drafting Byron Buxton with a top 75-ish pick. I mean, you and I aren't, but somebody is. The Collector Royal Wee. It just feels like an overreaction to

the one season where, he stayed healthy. All right, let's move on. Next name up for you, Chris, is actually the cover photo of this episode. O'Neill Cruz, who has an ADP of 90. He is the 19th outfielder off the board. 20 homers, 38 steals. Very fun. 200 batting average. Not as fun. He just finished as the 174th overall player in Roto leagues. Obviously in points leagues, the strikeouts were untenable in that format. I'm guessing if people are drafting him here, Chris, they see the power speed. They likely think regression will hit on the batting average, which is entirely possible. Maybe he hits 240 or whatever. But what if he doesn't? Like, what if he just doesn't improve?

What if he's still terrible against lefties? We've seen enough to question heavily if O'Neo Cruz actually has that in him. So, yeah, I think on last week's podcast, we were talking about Michael Bush and Ben Rice. And there's one other player we were talking about who like, the goal is to keep your head above water against lefties. And if you can do that, you're going to mash righties, and it doesn't matter that you can't hit lefties that well. O'Neill Cruz is not anywhere close to keeping his head above water. Last season, he hit 177 with a 255 OBP and a 311 slugging percentage.

All of those numbers are unplayably bad against left-handed pitching. He was okay as a center fielder. It was really rough first month or so, and then he was okay. But not a difference maker out there, not someone that's like, yeah, we'll eat the 570 OPEA. He's not Kevin Karemeyer. You know, we're going to live with a 570 OPS because he's just such a difference maker in the field. I think there's legitimate playing time risk for O'Neill Cruz. I think there is genuine risk that he just does not play against lefties at a certain point.

And honestly, he's not such a slam dunk against righties that he has to play every day. I think O'Neill Cruz is getting close to running out of opportunities here. We're talking about 1,500 plate appearances and a 27-year-old. At some point, it's got to stop being about what he could do and got to be about what he's done. And what he's done is just not that interesting for fantasy. 62 runs, 61 RBI last year. He was a stolen base specialist last year.

Yeah. Like that's the only category where O'Neill Cruz was actually an above-average contributor last season. that is not worth a top 100 pick. Not anymore. Like maybe 10 years ago, yeah, he's going to steal 38 bases. I don't care what else he does. I'll take him in the top 100.

But like, O'Neo Cruz might just be a bad hitter. And I know the potential's there. And then he's never going to slide so far just because you can always talk yourself into, yeah, but what if he figures it out? What if this is the year that the guy who hits the baseball harder than anyone in baseball hits 40 homers? what's his career high? 22?

Yeah. Like I just, I don't, I don't see the case for it. I think O'Neill Cruz, even more so than Freddie Peralta, is the most obviously overvalued player on draft boards this year. Yeah, and to your point about playing time with O'Neill Cruz, they seem like they are a little bit more serious. They're trying to win games this year. They are spending a little bit of money.

We'll see what else they do this off. season and, you know, that's everything that we've heard and they've signed a few players. So, you know, if O'Neo Cruz's defense is really bad or he's just awful against lefties and they're actually trying to win games, like, yeah, he could legitimately lose playing time. So, and again, the flip side is, okay, the batting average regresses and if he just hits his career mark 233 and repeats what he just did and on a better team, the counting stats should be a little bit better.

Like, I understand you can, you can kind of sell it like easily. but I mean just coming off the batting average season that he just had and the strikeouts and just the swing decisions were weird like he was less aggressive and maybe that kind of messed him up too it's just we need to see more and it's not even like a spring training thing because I'm pretty sure he was awesome in spring training yeah oh he was and we all bought in and then you know boom he did have a great April and then just nothing else after that so this is one where we usually use or at least I usually use bust as like yeah he won't be worth his price basically what we're doing here.

I think O'Neo Cruz is a player who legitimately has, like, this is wrecking my team downside as a top 100 pick. I mean, it's just such a high price for this player. Yep. All right, Chris, well, next up, if you want to go for a walk or something, you maybe take that hat off while we're talking about this player. So I have Yuri Perez as an overvalued player right now. His ADP is 91.7.

He's the SP 23 off the board. This one is like Caminero. I don't want to be down on a young, budding, what I consider to be a star. I think eventually he is going to be a star, and he's full of a bunch of potential. But when I was digging in recently, I just came away feeling that he was a little bit overvalued here.

The swing and miss, the stuff, it's amazing. There's no doubt. I think the control, the ability to command his pitches still needs a lot of work. Obviously, he's super young. he's an extreme fly ball pitcher which is mostly fine in the ballpark that he pitches in but he also gives up hard contact and a decent amount of barrels

so when you combine those things we had this stretch in the middle of the season where he was just getting bombed right so if you walk guys and give up a lot of hard hit fly balls that can result in multi-run homers which obviously we don't want for fantasy and the innings it's like how many innings are we getting from Yuri Perez this season he just got to 118,

total. I think the Marlins are going to be pretty cautious with him, maybe in the second half of the season. I could see 150, maybe 160, hopefully if he can stay healthy. I would just rather take my upside shots later in the draft, Chris, the 150-ish range where you could get, you know, you Savage and Bubba Chandler. Maybe they don't have the same level of upside as Uri Perez, but I still think there's some stuff he needs to work on before. I am using a top 100 pick on him. I think the ceiling is probably around that 160 to 170 range for innings with Yuri Perez. That'd be between a 45 and 55 inning jump for him based on last season. It would be about, I don't know, 35 more than he's ever thrown in a professional season. And that's all within

the realm of possibility. But you got to remember that's the best case scenario. And I would feel a lot better about him hitting that basic case scenario if he was more obviously dominant so far at the major league level and it is worth keeping in mind that this is a guy who doesn't turn 23 until a few weeks after opening day uh i think he's younger than like half of the Mets and redsox prospects that we're all excited about right like Nolan McLean's like what a year and a half two years older than him something like yeah it's a brand of sproat i think it's like three years older or something Uri Perez is still a baby. Like, he could still be in the minors, and we'd be excited about him.

So I think in the long run, he's absolutely going to be an ace. This is a guy that in the next 10 years, you should bet on him finishing top five in the Salyang vote at least once. This year, it's asking a lot. He gives up a lot of fly balls. They tend to be weekly hit, but I think there's going to be some home run issues at some point. The strikeout rates have been good, but not elite. He's still searching for that third pitch. He's like the curveball, the sweeper, the slider.

None of them have really been like the elite pitch that you want. And so I think it's weirdly like from a skill set, a high floor pitcher. Like I think you're going to get a good ERA and a good whip out of him. Does he give you the 11 strikeouts per nine? I think he's certainly capable of it. I just, I don't know if that's a bet. want to make on a top 100 pick. All right, Chris.

Next up here you have Drake Baldwin of the Braves. 91.5 is the ADP, the seventh catcher off the board. He's going just ahead of Salvador Perez and Will Smith of the Dodgers. He's 24 years old, Baldwin. He just won rookie of the year. Very impressive stuff. Like everything across the board, he does everything that you want. It's good swing decisions.

Avoid strikeouts. He hits the ball hard. Ground ball rate is a little high. My guess is the thing that worries you most for fantasy is probably just the volume. Are we going to get enough plate appearances? Are there enough D.H. days available where he can matter as much as players around him at the position who are going to get those D.H days. Yeah, I think those D.H. days are going to be tough to come by. Look, Mike O'Stremsky might just be bad, in which case, Jerks and ProFar plays a lot of left field, and D.H. is open.

But right now, it looks like the D.H. spot is pretty much full almost every day. I would expect Mike Yostremski at least to be. play against every righty in the outfield. He's a good defender. And so does Baldwin get 70% of the catcher playing time and get some DH spots against lefties? It's possible he does. And there's a little bit of uncertainty about Sean Murphy's availability for the start of the season. He's coming back from hip surgery. So it's possible that we reach a point where Drake Baldwin is just cleared for five starts a week no matter what. But I tend to think it's probably more like a 450 to 500 plate appearance projection than a 500 to 600.

And you just look at the other guys at catcher. And I think Augustine Ramirez is going to get more playing time than him. And Hunter Goodman and even Salvador Perez should still and Yiner Diaz. And then you start to get to like Will Smith. And I think Will Smith has playing time limitations. They just want to keep him healthy. so like Alejandra Kirk probably should get more played appearances so it's just can he be such a difference maker on a per plate appearance basis to make up for a little bit of a deficit in playing

time I think he's capable of it but this feels like the year where you probably shouldn't have to pay for any kind of question mark at catcher given the depth at the position yeah and again this is another tough one where it's like we love the player from a skills perspective it's just some circumstances, the ADP where it is, and you know, just not getting as many of those DH days as other catchers just might hold Drake Baldwin back a little bit here in his second full season. Let's riddle off a few rapid fire ones here, Chris. I have two pitchers. Spencer Strider with an ADP of 95. He is the SP 26 off the board and Tyler Glass now going just behind him. ADP 110 SP28. Strider we spoke about recently. I mean, we were shocked to see him.

his ADP this high. Just with all the questions that we had, have still, his first 12 starts back. He looked okay. 359 ERA, 115 whip, 10.9K per 9, that's actually better than okay. That's really good for Spencer Shrider.

His final 11 were awful. 546 ERA, 168 whip, and his fastball started to get exposed. The velocity was down almost two miles per hour from where he was at pre-surgery. The shape of the fastball was not as good. getting whiffs on that pitch and essentially he's now a one pitch pitcher who walks too many and gives up a lot of hard contact so I need to see more in spring training I understand what his upside was

before but we the last we saw of strider his upside was nowhere close to that pitcher so I need to see him in spring training with with either the velocity up better fastball shape or a reliable third pitch or maybe all of the above so need to wait and see more from Strider, but I'm not using a top 100 pick on him right now. And the other name is Tyler Glass now, who, look, I just don't want to do the song and dance anymore. I just, I don't want to do it. It's, he hasn't been able to stay healthy.

He was just limited to 90 in the third innings. He has never thrown more than 134 in a third in any major league season. And plus, the skills took a little step back. The strikeouts came down. The walks went up. His K-minus walk rate dropped from 25.5% in 2024, down to 3,000. 17% this past season. So skills regressed.

He's getting a little bit older, older than you think, and he can't stay healthy. I'm just, no. I'm not going to do the Tyler Glassnow thing. So I'm going to have him ranked outside my top 30 starting pitchers and just someone I'm going to stay away from. So any thoughts, any quick thoughts on Strider or Glassnow? I think with Strider, this is not to say that Strider was like a fraud

before the injury because he wasn't. He was incredible. But I think what last year showed up, was there were real deficits in his skill set that he was able to cover up with just outrageously good stuff. Like his command was never great. And the lack of a third pitch was a little bit of a question mark. And his fastball always got hit pretty hard.

Even when he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball, it's just he got so many strikeouts that it didn't matter. That was basically, he was just, he struck out 36% of batters. And when you can do that, you can get away with a lot. And last year, the fastball went from a huge positive pitch to a pretty big negative. I think this is one that maybe we get to spring training and he looks like himself and he's averaging 96 on the fastball again. And we're like, okay, yeah, top 100 pick on Spencer Strider is okay. It's not worth it.

Not worth it right now without seeing that. And even when we get to spring training, let's not forget. He looked really good last spring training too. He had a couple of spring starts. I was looking back at it. I think he struck out eight of his first 10 batters in that start against the Red Sox. And like, even there, his velocity was down a couple ticks, but nobody really cared. And it was like, all right, I think we kind of overthought it or underthought it, I guess.

But yeah, I think it's too much right now. All right, Chris, bring us home here. You have two more Dodgers on the list. What did the Dodgers do to you? Andy Pahez with an ADP of 129, the 28th outfielder off the board. And this one hurts all of our hearts. Emmett Sheehan 137 is the ADP as the SP 37. So why down on Paez and Emmett Sheen?

Well, with Paez, anytime you can spend an 11th round pick on a guy who got benched for the most important games of the season, I think you have to do it, right? Like, that's just obvious. He did make the biggest catch in the world series. Sure. If you get credit for clutch defense, that that would work out. No, I just, I don't think he's a very good hitter. That's what it comes down to. It was like, you know, a 330 Wobah last year with a 315X Woba.

I think the 27 homers, that's probably more like a sealing outcome. And I bet more on low 20s. There's playing time risk if the bat isn't there. I just am not a believer in Andy Pahas. I think even if I'm wrong, I'm not really very likely to regret not picking him. Yeah. You know, like even if he's a little better than I expect and it's like 25 homers and close to 15 steals. Like, that's fine. That's useful, certainly.

But I don't think there's upside that's worth the downside risk for a guy that I just don't have much faith in in the skill set. And then she and I just have no faith in the workload. I just, I'm not 100% sure he's in the Dodgers rotation. I think we're all assuming he will be. And at some point, he definitely will be. Like there's, there is not like one Dodgers rotation. There's probably 22. And it's just who's in and who's out at any given point in the same.

season. Yeah, that'll happen at some point. But right now, we've gotten confirmation that Roki Sasaki's in the rotation. Obviously, Yoshinomi Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glassnow, Shoha Yatani. Those guys are all in the rotation. Well, that's one spot. And Roki Sasaki might go out in spring training and stink. And they're just like, it's not worth it. You're not ready. In which case, that gives him a little more breathing room. But we've got, I think Gavin Stone's coming back from his injury and River Ryan. I think is a guy and Justin Rebleski and Lannon. Like none of these guys are great, certainly.

None of them are better than Amishian. But the Dodgers have been just a little weird with him over the years. And he did not cover himself in glory in the postseason. I know that was in a swing role and that's different. But he certainly didn't make the case that like, I'm such an integral part of everything you're doing that you have to put me in the rotation. that I just think it might be 40 appearances and 22 starts, you know?

Yeah. And you might be okay with that, but for a 12th round pick in a 12th team league, that's a pretty big question mark. I would feel better about it getting closer to spring training and knowing that he's in the rotation. But once that happens, his ADP is pushing 100 at that point.

That's the problem is. Once that gets confirmed, he's going where Yuri Perez is. Yeah. So I think he's a great, talent, I think the ceiling's probably like 150 innings for him. And the floor might be a hundred. I think that's a healthy floor. I think that ceiling might be a little high too. I was thinking he's like a 130, 140 inning pitcher. This is the classic example of just draft skills and don't

worry about it. I mean, because the skills are truly awesome. Nearly a 16% swinging strike rate with almost 11K per 9. Yep. He was amazing, especially down the stretch of the regular season. It's just normally you want to take that bet of the guy with the skills that we don't exactly know what his role is. Around pick 200, not at like 135. Let's look at some guys in that like 200.

Let's look at some guys in that 200 range. Like you've got Shane Boss, I don't know, Kate Horton, he was really good as a rookie. We both love Chris Bubbage, Chris, and he's going at 214. Yeah, I mean, I know Carlos Rodon's coming back from an elbow surgery, so we don't know exactly when he's going to be ready, but he was a top 10 pitcher, I think, last season. Edward Cabrera was really good in the second half of the season.

Andrew Abbott has consistently put up good numbers. Tatsuya E. Mai is at 183, although that's on the rise. That's going to go a lot higher. Connolly Early is 240 if he's in the rotation. I don't think he's as good as Emishian, but he's clearly good. Bryce Miller was a top 10? Was he a top 10 starting pitcher two years ago? Yeah.

It's probably pretty close. Yeah, he was. So it's just to say that, like, Joe Musgrove is going to be back fairly early on in the season. He's at 260. There are just... It's easier to handle if this pick was like 175 to 200. It would feel a lot better instead of 135. I think 135 is probably the floor, like you said.

If he's guaranteed he's in the rotation, I think that's a top 100 pick by March. Again, that was Emmett Sheean that we just spoke about. We are going to wrap there for Chris. I am frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Base. ball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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