Fantasy Baseball Today - Early ADP Gifts at Each Position with Justin Mason! (12/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 21, 2020

Happy Holidays everybody! Scott White is out this week but Justin Mason joined us on the podcast! We start things off with some news and notes, including Michael Wacha signing with the Tampa Bay Rays (2:00). Joe Maddon said Jo Adell needs more time in the minors and Alex Cora said Matt Barnes is likely to start the season as the Red Sox closer. ... Since it's the season of giving, we have a gift at each position using early NFBC ADP. Let's start with catcher (8:40). ... Is this older gentleman starting his decline at first base (15:18)? ... We have a deeper second baseman in San Francisco and an underappreciated name in Cincinnati (20:52). ... The Ke'Bryan Hayes love is real (28:10)! ... Why does Justin Mason have a rivalry with Dansby Swanson (34:12)? ... We wrap up with a few outfielders and starting pitchers that are going way too late (44:18)! What are our Top-3 Christmas/Holiday movies of all time (50:45)? ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Yipa, Yee, Mother. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, December 21st. Frank Stanville here, no Scott White, who's getting a much needy vacation. We'll talk to Scott again in the new year. I want to wish everybody a very happy and healthy holiday season. And considering it's Christmas week, we have something special for you today on the show. We're giving you the best gifts at each position based on early ADP over at the NFBC. That's the National Fantasy Baseball Championship.

Who's we joining me today is the co-owner of Friends with Fantasy Benefits, creator of TGFBI, the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. You've listened to him on The Sleeper and the Bucer. podcast, of course, with Paul Sporer. Make sure you follow on Twitter at Justin Mason. FWFB. What's going on, Justin? Hey, another much is getting ready for Christmas.

You reached out and said, hey, you need a co-host for this week. I was like, who needs to wrap more presents? Let's talk baseball. Let's do it indeed. And look, if you don't know who Justin is or if you haven't like seen his face somewhere, it's honestly impossible at this point. It is between everything, all the shirts over at Roto. and just like all the appearances and all the great work that you do.

Like, if people don't know you by now, like, what are you doing? You live under rock. Make sure you go follow Justin on Twitter and make sure to follow all of his work. And there you go. I actually have no idea who Justin chose as his ADP gifts. So this should be fun. And we will also talk about our top three Christmas movies towards the end of the podcast. But first, we do have some news and notes.

Not really much going on, obviously, because that's just this slow moving offseason that we have here, Justin. Michael Waka, signed a one year, $3 million deal with the Tampa Bay race. His ADP is outside the top 700. His ERA was 6.62 this past season. But under the hood, there's actually some interesting stuff. Career high, 11% swinging strike rate, career high, 34% chase rate and changed up his pitch mix. I mean, you'd have to be in the deepest of leagues. We talk beforehand. You do like these crazy dynasty 30 teams, 100 people, 100, roster spots. So I assume Michael Walker's on someone's roster there.

Any interest? I mean, what is the old fantasy focus used to say like fantasy kryptonite? Like that's like me and Michael Walker. Like I just, I keep falling for it. I feel like I'm Charlie Brown trying to kick a football with Michael Walker every year. And him going to the race should be one of those situations.

Or like, well, if he starts, he'll only get a few innings. But what if he's the follower? Like that becomes super interesting. I mean, we've seen, you know, Cherinos have, like, huge seasons. Yarborough have huge, like, fantasy seasons being the follower. He's a guy I'm going to keep an eye on.

And we're going to wait and see how he's used before we draft him. I mean, if you're in, like, an NFBC 50 round league, maybe use one of your last picks on him or something like that. But he's definitely not a guy who you want to count on in any sense of the word. Yeah, like a normal standard 12-team leagues, if you're playing roto or a head-to-head points league. Like, this is not someone that you're following for now, but maybe if he gets off to a good star, two-star weeks,

whatever it might be. Tampa Bay, they usually do a good job in terms of figuring pitchers out and helping them turn around or just getting the most of people. So we'll see what happens. Michael Waka, interesting, slightly interesting. I'm not, you know, whatever.

It's Michael Waka. Joe Madden told reporters that Joe Adele, quote, needs more time in the minors. No question. I guess that is pretty obvious at this point. I mean, he was terrible. Joe Adele was terrible this past season. But, I mean, it's a weird year where, like, I can't,

I don't think we're really holding it against him. You mentioned that you play in Dynasty. Would you be trying to buy low on Joe Adele if you could? It depends on the price. I mean, I've been a huge Joe Adele fan since before he got drafted. I mean, if you saw the numbers he was putting up in high school, they were straight up video game numbers. And he has all that talent.

I mean, he's one of those guys who can jump, like, straight out of a pool. like when the water's like up to his neck like no hands nothing just jumps out um like the athleticism is off the charts with joe adele but man he cannot make contact he he is he's turning into what lewis brinson was in a lot of ways and that hurts my heart because i just absolutely love what joe adele could be uh i mean the nice thing is he's pretty much free in fantasy right now i mean I mean, he's just no one, one of things about fantasy baseball is that when a prospect does not succeed right away, the industry as a whole just says, screw this guy.

Like, I don't want him. I'm not going to touch him. And so, like, he, you know, in almost every format, he's pretty close to free outside of dynasty in keeper leagues. I think it's worth the speculation, but I'm not going to pay near what I was paying a year ago at this time in a dynasty league to go get him. And if you have them in a league and someone says, you know, I will give you, you know, whatever the equivalent of like the top prospect or top five prospects and baseball are for them, you take that deal and you ship them off. But I mean, the sky's the limit, but the floor is just unbelievable. It's Louis Branson, which is, you know, not been good. A 41.7% strikeout rate for Joe Adele in this short and season. He obviously could use more seasoning in the minors, as Joe Madden alluded to. The early ADP for Adele is two.

73 over at the NFBC. Tigers pitching prospect, Alex Fayetteau, will undergo Tommy John surgery later this month. And speaking of Dynasty, I mean, this is a pretty big hit as well. I don't think that we hold him in the same regards as like Casey Mize and Scoobel and Matt Manning, but he's probably just behind those guys.

And I know that there's a lot of people that are excited about Alex Fayato. So this definitely sucks just in general for him and for people who have him in Dynasty as well. Red Sox manager, Alex Corr, said Matt Barnes, is the favor to open the season. as their closer. Justin, I had this crazy idea in my head that Matt Barnes was good this past season

and then I just looked up his numbers. 4.30 ERA of 5.5 walks per 9. He did have 9 saves though. Yeah, well, that's the thing. Look at the rest of that Red Sox bullpen. He's the closer. And at some point, you just take the saves, right? And so, I mean, if you're in a points league,

obviously you don't care as much about a guy like Matt Barnes, but in a roto league, considering, like, I'm pretty sure he's going, like, outside the top 200 picks. Like, he's probably locked in to that closer role, especially because they don't seem to be the team that right now that wants to compete. So they're not going to go out inside a Hendrix or a Colomé. They're going to roll with what they got and save the money. And, you know, yeah, I mean, if you're plugging him in as your number two or number three closer, in, you know, 12 or 15 team league, you're pretty stoked because he's a guy

that probably not going to lose his job. It doesn't even matter how terrible it is. His ADP is 229, so you're right. Yeah, going outside the top 200. It's not free, but that's a pretty good discount for a guy who looks like he's going to be the closer as of now. I guess his ADP is probably going to move up if they don't sign somebody else.

If you enjoy the show and would like to leave a five-star Apple podcast rating and review, we would appreciate it. Feel free to drop a question in there as well, and we'll answer it here on the show. Make sure that you subscribe to our YouTube channel. YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. I'm wearing my I'm dreaming of a Dwight Christmas, ugly Christmas sweater,

which is pretty awesome, if I must say so myself. So you can see it on YouTube. And of course, I just want to remind everyone some programming notes. I will not be on a second podcast later this week. You will hear Danny Vietti and Will Middlebrooks. They have a great interview coming up with Trevor Bowers agent, whose name is escaping me right now. Rachel Luba.

Rachel Luba, yes. So you will hear that later this week on Wednesday, and I'm sure it's going to be very interesting to have lots of questions for Rachel. So you'll find that, but you'll not find me later on this week. This is the only time I'll be on the podcast. ADP gifts at each position,

Justin. We'll hit catcher first base, second base, third base shortstop, outfield, and starting pitcher. Hopefully, I don't know how many of these will get through, but let's jump right in then. Catcher. get us started man

I feel like catcher's always the coal in the stocking isn't it it's like you like you just avoid it for the most part if you can especially if you're playing in a one catcher league like there's no reason to invest a catcher just play catcher roulette and hope that you know you don't get killed by it so that being said

Max Stasi man he's going to pick 363 I know that the angels have been tied to they were tied to like Jason McCann or James McCann, you know, for a little bit before he signed with the Mets. There's been talk that maybe they could bring back Jason Castro. As long as they don't sign someone. So obviously this changes if they do sign someone that would play ahead of him.

He was really, really good in a season in which he lost a lot of games to injury. And so, like, I love the lineup that the Angels are putting together. Obviously, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon. And if you got him kind of hitting behind some of those guys, he has a lot of potential drive and some runs. He delivered like a 270 batting average last year. I mean, he's just a, he's a former top prospect. People forget, like, he was a top prospect at one point for the Astros.

So, yeah, I mean, give me all the maxed assy shares. Yeah, and the stat cast numbers are great, too. 91.6 mile per hour average exit velocity. He hit 278. As you mentioned, his XBA was 271. His slug, 533, X-slug, 568, man. So Stasi really has some great underlying numbers. He hits a lot of line drives as well.

Made a good amount of contact, 20% strikeout rate. That's a little bit better than league average. And he gets on base 10% walk rate. So yeah, he's going at 363 in ADP. And I mean, you get him, you probably want them more so as your second catcher, I would assume, right, than your first. Yeah. But, I mean, it's, you know, it's all upside. And I'm one of those guys that especially in two catcher leagues, if I don't end up with a guy I really covet

it at the position, I just wait. I'll wait forever. Like, you know, and you know, so I have no problem in a league, you know, a deeper two catcher league where Max Stasi is actually my number one catcher. I really just don't because it means the rest of my roster is really, really well filled out. So like I love Aaron, or Austin Nola. So like if I get me some Austin Nola, there's my number one catcher, Stasi number two. But if I miss out on a guy like Nola or, you know, if I don't want to pay up for the real mutos of the world, then I'll just wait. and grab like two guys like Stasi later on or three guys like Stasi later on in 50, you know,

round draft and holds. And it feel pretty good about it. So this is going to be controversial, the name that I'm about to bring up, and very polarizing too. I think people who have had this player on their team before, they're probably not going to go back to the well. But I have never had him.

And that is Gary Sanchez. And his ADP has gone from over the past five years 45 to 19, 53, 78 last season, and now he's at 196. So, yeah, in years past, if he's like a fourth or fifth round pick, like I usually don't invest in a catcher going that early. But I think now people are probably going way too far the other way for Gary Sanchez. And there's a lot of volatility in his profile. I understand that he strikes out a ton, a 36% strikeout rate this past season. He's probably going to hover around 30%. That's going to affect his back. batting average. But Justin, the babbit, the batting average on balls in play.

159 for Gary Sanchez. And from 2015 to 2019, entering last season, he was at 264 for his career. So he still hits the ball extremely hard, according to stat cast. 17% bowler rate, 97th percentile. I just, I have to imagine that the batting average is going to be better than it was this past season. So are you interested or is there just too much volatility? Have you been burned by Gary Sanchez enough where you're just not going to go back to the well because I think some people are scared that like I'm not going to say that he's like done

but there's a chance he can lose his job to Kyle Gashioka. Yeah, I mean I don't think he's going to lose his job. The problem is he with the way the Yankees are currently constructed with Stanton pretty much being a full-time

DH. He doesn't have and now Luke Voie playing first. Like he doesn't have that ability to go play another position on the days he's not catching because he can be brutal by the plate at times, which is unfortunate. That being said, like go look at his stat cast page.

Exit velocity, 89th percentile, hard hit percentage, 92nd percentile, barrel percentage, 97th percentile. Like, if you don't want to take a shot on a guy that at one point was like close to a wheel pick in a

15 team NFBC league at, you know, where he's going right now, like you're just not, you know, doing things right, especially in a position like catcher where guys come into the league. Like, Max Stasi was not drafted last year. And so, like, there will be another Max Stacey or Austin Nola that, like, comes into the league and is a top 10, 15 catcher where you can go, okay, it's June, this Gary Sanchez thing is definitely not working. Or maybe they have said, okay, now you're only going to catch 30% of the time. Um, you know, jettison them off your league or, you know, off your team and go pick up the next guy.

I have no problem with Gary Sanchez this year. And I'm not one of those people that's like, you've burned me. I will never forgive you. It just, I don't look at players that way. You know, there are people. He's formerly like, you know, a second round talent. So I'm not done with Gary Sanchez for sure. And we've seen him bounce back from bad seasons before.

He had a 697 OPS back in 2018. bounce back the next season with an 841 OPS. He was at 618 this past season in the short season. He uncharacteristically hit very bad against lefties too. He batted over under 100 against left-handed pitching for his career. He's 2.14, which isn't good, but he should be better in that department as well. I just think, just don't overthink it. This is one of those things with Machado last year where he was going in the middle rounds

and I had a lot of Machado because I'm just like, the talent is there. I'm not overthinking it and it worked out. So hopefully the same thing can happen for Gary Sanchez. Justin, over at first base, an early ADP gift that you were looking at at this position. Wilmer Flores, man. And maybe this is a Homer pick. But I've always been a Wilmer Flores guy, even when he was playing with the Mets. He's first base and second base eligible, which is always great to be able to fill your CI and your MI slot.

He's got a full-time role in San Francisco. Like, I think people are thinking that maybe they're going to play the youth, but they didn't play the youth this year. There isn't much youth. Like there's not like it's just an old team that doesn't have a lot of talent and the big name prospects are not coming up this year. Or at least I don't think they are. And so he's going to get a chance to play every day. And the way he hit this year, man, I think he is a 25 to 30 home run guy in that even in that park, especially with that gate close that helped kind of propel that jet stream a little bit in San Francisco. And if, I mean, right now there's a stay at home order on all of.

Northern California, like the entire Bay Area. I live an hour away from San Francisco and we're a stay in order. So, like, I don't think they're letting fans in the stands and they're not going to open up, open up that gate. It's going to be closed. And that's kind of a big deal for a guy like Flores. So I really like him. I've got him, I think I've already had seven drafts and I think I've gotten him in four

leagues already thus far. It's, I think he's just kind of one of those guys everybody just overlooks. Yeah. And on a per game basis, the past two seasons, I mean, 830 OPS this past season, 848 in 2019, he only played 89 games in 2019 with the Diamondbacks, but he hits a lot of line drives. He makes a lot of contact. So even someone, if you play in a deeper points league, like, I think he can be valuable for you there as well. So the multi-position eligibility, one more floor is definitely an interesting name.

And I'm happy you brought up the archways in Oracle Park, because that is something that I will be paying close attention to heading into next season. and spring training because, I mean, we saw guys like Yistramski was great at home. And just offense in general was up in Oracle Park. So could be huge for some of those hitters. And obviously it affects pitching as well. So definitely a storyline to pay attention to there with the Giants. I went a little bit higher here. And this is another one where I don't think he's done.

I think if it was a full season, he probably would have just turned things around. And for me, it's Anthony Rizzo. He hit 222 in 2020. with 11 home runs, 26 runs scored, 24 RBI, and chipped in his normal three steals. Over a full season, he usually gets you like 6 to 8 or whatever. But just another one that was really hurt by the batting average on balls in play.

And he was a career 289 BABB entering 2020. This past season, that was 218. And the only thing that changed in his profile was that he hit more infield fly balls. So he got crushed by, I don't know if he was trying to improve the launch angle and it just wound up like popping up a bunch of balls this year, but like 17% of his batted balls were pop-ups,

that was never higher than 10% in his career. And people will look at the hard contact rate and the average exit velocity, and they'll say like, oh, well, that was down. Well, if 17% of your batted balls are pop-ups, then, yeah, of course, it's going to affect your batting ball numbers in general. So Rizzo will turn 32 years old in August. He's entering a contract year.

Justin, do you believe that 2020 was a fluke, or is this kind of the beginning of, you know, that downturn for Anthony Rizzo. Yeah, I mean, I don't think he was necessarily as bad as the numbers maybe show. That being said, he's also hitting that point in terms of like an aging curve where you're going to start seeing guys, you know, start to struggle early 30s. You know, what is that team going to look like around them if they start trading pieces off? Because they're, again, you know, I just said, the NL Central, the entire team or division, is selling. So, like, is that team going to look as great around him as it maybe has in the

past? And there are just so many intriguing pieces at first base that he's one of those guys where if he kind of drops into my lap, if I'm in a draft and let's say I'm picking at 120 and he's still on the board, I'm going to be like, okay, at worst, he's going to compile for me, right? At worst, he's going to just rack up maybe unsexy stats, but it's still. stats. He's definitely not a guy I'm reaching for, though. I love Alec Baum. I love Max Muncie. I love Mike Moustakus. I actually buy into a lot of what Eric Cosmer did this last year. So, like, I'm totally fine missing out on him, but I'm also not going to ignore him if he starts to fall on his draft. Yeah, compiler is probably a good way to put it. You know, if I was projecting him,

260 to 270, 25-ish home runs, just solid counting stats, assuming he doesn't get moved. I don't know if that would actually help him or hurt him, but I guess we'll find out. Chip and steals, like, I mean, a first baseman who can pick you up five to ten stolen bases has a ton more value than the guy who's just a rock. I will put you on the spot, Justin, would you rather have him or Paul Goldschmidt or neither? I think I'd rather have Goldschmidt. Okay. But again, the Goldschmidt's not a guy like I'm targeting.

Like, this is the area of the draft for first base where, like, I feel like there is just this glob of dudes. And I want to make sure I've got a first baseman by the time those dudes are gone. But I don't really care which dude it is. Fair enough. Second base. Who do you got, Justin? Oh, my second baseman who I went back and forth on this one. There's a number of guys. Like second base went from one of the shallowest positions in fantasy to one of the deepest.

Like, I mean, I think for my initial ranks, like I ranked 50 second baseman. Like, and it was like, I would be okay with a bunch of these guys. I'm going to go with kind of like the old, reliable, boring dude in Cesar Hernandez. Now he doesn't have a team, so we got to see where he's going to end up. But like all he does is get on base. And like he does just enough in every category to be relevant. And I assume he's going to end up on some sort of contender, be at the top of the lineup, rack up a bunch of runs, which is like the most unappreciated stat in Roto, especially.

and just be that unsexy glue guy for your roster, you know, at the end. And he's, I think, going around pick three something right next to another guy I really love in Colton Wong. So, like, that's also a free agent. But his ADP is going to shoot up once we know where he lands. So if you're doing early drafts right now, like, now's the time to go get him when his ADP is, you know, super low. Caesar Hernan is the ADP. You mentioned 348.9 Colton Wong, 376. so these guys are going, you know, around 3.50, even a little bit later than that.

Free in most leagues. I mean, if you're playing in a 12-teamer or even most 15 teamers, like they're free unless you're playing like a 50-round draft. You know what was weird? Do you know how many stolen bases he had this past season? Off the top of my head, I'm going to say he had four. Zero. Yeah. He hasn't been running quite as much. Yeah, and it was weird because part of the reason I really liked him entering last season was because he was joining Cleveland.

And normally Cleveland is aggressive on the base paths. We see that with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. I wonder if it had something to do with Terry Francona not being with the team because I know that he missed like a large majority of the year where like he wasn't with them. I don't know if he like helps design their base running game plans or whatever or if he's part of that. But I thought that was interesting. Like Cesar Nenez and Ammeira Rosario, another one who, you know, we kind of usually

expect some steals and both of them had zero in the shorten season. So I just, I thought that was really interesting. I think we don't want to overanalyze the short season in terms of like team strategy too, because I think there were teams that decided not to run because it was such a short season that they went, why are we risking if like, you know, it's one of things I think a lot of us in the industry talked about coming into 2020, which was taking an injury prone player. Yeah, I mean, there is some upside in terms of, oh, what if he stays healthy for 60 games? But, like, if he goes on the IL and he's already missing 10 days, like, that's a sixth of the season. So I'm sure there were calculations by some major league teams that went,

are we really going to risk a guy for a stolen base, which doesn't necessarily have a ton of intrinsic value in the real baseball sense? you know, when if he breaks his wrist, like that's his year. Like, or, you know, or not even, you know, breaks wrist might be a year in any season. But like if he sprains his wrist, like he might miss half the season. And so I think there were teams that went, we're just not going to run. And I think the Indians might have been one of those teams as well. Yeah. And people were freaking out about Trey Turner.

I think it was like the first month. He didn't, I think he only had one seal or he didn't steal a base until like a couple of weeks or a month into the season. And then he still wound up with, I think it was like close to 10 or whatever. but he was great. But it's a good point that you bring up there. For me, Mike Mustakis still has second base eligibility. And there's another one where I'm going a little bit higher than you. And he's at 129.4.

But I just don't really understand why, like last year he was a top 100 pick. And this year was weird for him. He had a quad injury. He had a COVID scare. And now you're getting him 30 picks later. I don't really think anything changed in terms of the player, The strikeout rate went up from a 22% strikeout rate for Mustakis was a career high, but that was despite a 10% swinging strike rate and a 31% chase rate,

both of those numbers were four-year bests for him. So the strikeout rate just, it seems a little wonky to me, and he also struggled a little bit against lefties. He had a 655 OPS for his career. He's 715, so it should bounce back a little bit in that department. It's still a great park to hit in. It's a solid lineup, assuming they don't trade everyone away. I'm going to take the,

whatever, 30 to 40 pick discount that you're getting on Mustakis this year versus last year. Yeah, I love Mustakis. I mean, I'm right there with. Definitely a guy I considered for this. But I just went a little bit later in the ADP for my gift. But Mustakis is one of those guys that just is perpetually underrated. Like people just don't give him, before it was because he was playing in Kansas City. Now it's because, like you said, he had the quad injury.

He got it wasn't even, he didn't even get COVID, right? he was just exposed to someone with COVID, and then he had to sit out and wait for two positive or negative tests. You got to love the part for him. You know, it'll be a bummer if they start trading away pieces like Suarez and hurting kind of the potential for him to drive in 100 runs. But, I mean, I just think he's like that perfectly solid dude that everybody kind of doesn't really think is sexy.

But he also feels like, like Flores, he feels that CI or MI spot. And having that, you know, I love guys that can fill either CIMMI or it goes infield outfield. Like those guys just give you so much roster flexibility, especially in seasons in which, you know, it might be shortened again.

You know, we hope that COVID's gone, but we don't know. We may have issues again. And like having those guys with that roster flexibility is huge, I think. He is Musakis, one season removed from a 35 homer, 845 OPS season.

again, that was back with the Milwaukee Brewers. The one thing that stood out to me, and you let me know if I'm overthinking things here, Justin, Musaka saw a 10% increase in breaking pitches this past year, and he hit just 100 against them. So I don't know if it's, it's just, again, everything's just a small sample size that. I don't know if that would have normalized

over the course of a full season, but that's the only thing that gives me slight pause with him. I'm not overly worried about that. I mean, it's just, he saw so few pitches because it was a 60 game season, which he missed time in. I just think that, again, this is one of those things where I keep reminding people. Like there is, you definitely want to analyze what happened in 2020 because it was a sample.

But I don't want to completely overreact to it. And so when I see guys like Mastak is getting a 20 or 30 pick discount, like that makes me much more interested than paying for the guy who had the huge two weeks, you know, in a 60 game season and is now shooting up the draft board, you know? Let's do it. I'm in on Mike Musacus. Third base, Justin, who you got there? Oh, third base. Okay. Like, I went back and forth on two guys and they're going right next to each other in the ADP. One is, oh, man, who should I go with? You know, Kew Brian Hayes, I just like, this is a guy who. like, you know, too often in the fantasy industry, analysts are unwilling to say they're wrong

on a guy. So I will say, I was wrong on your brain Hayes. I just, I was. Like, I just did not think he was going to be the type of player that was like fantasy goodness. I thought he was going to be a really, really fun, interesting, and solid real life player, but I did not, I did not see what I saw in 2020 when he came up. And it may be hyperbolic, but like, I think he's, could be like early career Anthony Rendon, which is a guy with a great average who has speed, has power, you know,

and I think he's a little bit sheltered in the, in the Pittsburgh sphere. That being said, like his ADP is going up and going up, and I think it will continue to go up. Because I want to say in the two early mocks that I did back in October, he was going around like, I want to say like 212. And now he's at what, 139?

So like the price is going up, but I'm okay with it. I actually really like the price. I think he's a little bit underrated still because you're getting like, you're getting a guy who could potentially be Anthony Rendon, which is a second or third round pick at pick, you know, 139. So I love me, Crabriene Hayes. Giorchella was the other guy. It's like the opposite where like super safe.

floor and he's going to pick 154. I don't understand why everybody hates Gio Rochella. Man, Scott White would love to be on with you right now. Man, he loves both of those guys. He loved Urchella last year and everything Arcella did really kind of carried over. Hit a lot of line drives.

Still hit the ball really hard. But Cabrian Hayes is someone he's already talked up a few times and man, I don't want to overreact too much because it was, he had 65 batted balls, but like 92.8 mile per hour average exit philosophy. 300 XBA, 497 X-slug.

He was just absolutely ripping the ball. And you brought up a very lofty comp and anti-Randone, but I will also, I'll mention Francisco Lindor as, no, I don't think Cabrion Hayes can be that type of player, like a 30-20 kind of guy. But Lindor was regarded as a, like a defense first prospect when he first came up.

Another guy was wrong on. I was totally wrong in Lindor. Yeah. And then he just took the league by storm and just became this awesome, bitter. So yeah, solid plate discipline from Hayes. Like, it's not a good part to hit in. It's not a great lineup, but that was true this past season. And he was awesome. Could also chip in a few bags. Had 12 steals in AAA in 2019. So, man,

a lot to be excited about Hayes, but I agree. I think the, the ADP is just going to continue to climb. And rightfully so. He's a very interesting player. You mentioned the name. I went all the way back up to the top, too. Anthony Rendon. I think that where he's going right now. 42. Last year he was being drafted inside the top 30. So you're getting like 15 to 20 picks of value right now

on Anthony Rendon. And I think he might be the safest third baseman being drafted inside the top 50 picks. And that's even considering Jose Ramirez, Mani Machado. I have no concerns over Anthony Rendon, Justin. And something I keep finding myself doing

in his early drafts is I'm being aggressive with starting pitchers in the first two rounds. And the reason why is because I really, really like those third and fourth round hitters because I think Rendon could provide first round value. Like, we've seen him do it before. And there's a lot of other just hitters in general going in those mid rounds. But like, I'm fine getting Anthony Rendon as like my first hitter if I start off with two pitchers in a draft. Yeah, I mean, there's just floors don't come that safe in fantasy as Anthony Rendon. And I mean, it's crazy because the early career like rub on.

Rendon was he just can't stay healthy, right? He struggled to stay healthy all throughout his college career at Rice, you know, dropped in the draft because of the injuries, then, you know, struggled early on his career. But, I mean, he's been just rock solid. And we pretend like he doesn't have any upside on top of it. But, I mean, I would argue like, yeah, I mean, you're not getting stolen bases. So, like, you know, if he chips in two or three stolen bases, you're like, oh, thanks for

those. but I mean, he's a guy that's going to hit 25 plus home runs, and he's going to do it with a good average. I mean, you know, 2020, he hit 286. Oh, okay. But the three previous seasons, he racked up 600 plate appearances in almost every one of those years and hit over 300.

Like, that's huge. Like, that just gives you so much room to play with batting average later getting a guy that is going to get you 600 plate appearances of a 300 batting average. everything else on top of it is really gravy. And then you could get that 29 season, 2019 season where he hit the 34 home runs and added the 100 in the runs and RBIs.

Like, yeah, I think he's a perfectly safe guy with the upside of like Nolan Aronado. He's probably going to miss 15 to 20-ish games throughout the course of a full season, but 900 plus OPS in four straight years for Anthony Redall. Just super safe. I have no problem with getting him as my first. hit her on a team. As I mentioned, and you know, I should have started everything off with this,

Justin, where if there is a player that I bring up that you just don't like, just completely feel free to rip it, Ben. Yeah, yeah. You don't have to just like agree with everybody. If there's a player on this list that you don't like, please feel free to tell me. Shortstop. Here you got. All right. Here you go. So sometimes the best gifts are the ones you've never, like you don't see coming, right? So here's a name that some of the listeners are going to be like, what? What? Hasion Kim coming over from the KBO should sign any day now

which means jump into a draft right now and draft him because he's going at pick 201. I think I got him at like 230, 240 in a draft champions recently. He's 25 years old. We know he can play defense. We know he's got speed and he showed

power in the KBO recently. Now, here's the thing. Power in the KBO. I could hit for 30 home runs in KPO. So, you know, maybe the fact that he hit a bunch of home runs, you know, this year, I think last year, too, is a little bit deceiving. So we don't know what kind of power he's going to hit for, especially when we start going up against majorly getting. But he can get on base.

He can walk. He's going to play good enough defense. And this isn't like a guy that is going to, you know, toil in the minors. Dude's going to play from day one on a team. A team's about to give him a contract and pay the team. he's, you know, leaving in the KBO money just to have the rights to negotiate. So I think this is a kid who by the beginning of March when you and I do the main event, he's going in like the top 1 30 and you're getting him at 2-1-1 right now.

So right now you're getting 70 picks or so, you know, worth of value by just drafting a guy that people don't know. and I think he has the potential to be a stud and a pretty safe floor because I think at worst he's going to offer you speed. And that is the definition of a gift, man. I mean, if he moves up that much and you're drafting now, I mean, just remember the name, Haseyong Kim.

We'll see where he lands, but he's been linked to like the Toronto Blue Jays, which would be a great lineup and great ballpark to hit in as well. Haseon Kim just turned 25 years old in October. 306 batting average in the KBO, past season, 30 homers and 23 steals. So really coming into his own. And usually, you know, when we get guys from like Japan or Korea, they're usually older.

He's 25 years old. He's in his prime. So definitely a name to pay attention to. If he ends up on a team that likes to run, like the Rangers have been really good with international talent. The Mariners have been another team that gets international talent and they run. If he ends up on one of those teams that run, like this dude is going to be just a great force in Roto.

So, yeah, I mean, if you can, jump in a league. Jump in a league right now because he has to sign by January 1st. Jump into one of those slow drafts on NFBC or, you know, talk a bunch of buddies into doing an early draft just so you can get a couple of these, you know, shares of Kim. Yeah, and look, a lot of the NFBC drafts, they're higher price points. And we understand. Like, not everybody can afford to do it. But, I mean, there's other drafts going on right now.

And just for lower dollar amounts, like there's best ball drafts. for 10 bucks or whatever it might be. So, you know, if you do have the urge for drafting, that's a way to do it now. I just did a fan tracks basketball for 10 bucks with a bunch of guys in the industry just for fun. Oh, you were in that draft, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

And Kim, I think, went outside, like, the top 200 picks. Like, and this are, like, really, really smart guys. Like, so, I mean, this, a bunch of really smart guys and me. So. I was going to say, like, why are you considering me a smart guy? exactly right but like there's a bunch of fan tracks leagues you can do for like 10 bucks NFBC just drop some of their price points

so they've got like these $50 12 team drafts which are 50 man rosters so like you get to deep draft but you don't have to spend $150 bucks so I wish that NFBC did a few of the free leagues like they do for football for baseball I got to talk to Tom and Tom and Craig

make it happen make it happen man get these people interested in NFBC because it's so much fun once you get hooked. Yeah, it is fun for sure. Um, Justin, I'm mad at myself from last year because I love this player and I just didn't get enough shares. And I don't know why because I was, I really like him. Uh, and it was Danesby Swanson, who's now, you know, going right around pick 100. The ADP's 104.7. Uh, and Matt, like, I still don't think that that's high enough based on the progression that we've seen from him to this point, 274 batting average in 809 OPS this

past season. Both of those were career highs. Ten homers, 49 runs scored, five steals. He's a high BABIP guy, but 25% line drive rate since the start of 2019. Obviously, we know line drives usually correlate well with Babbip. And I noticed recently Jeff Zimmerman, who writes Mining the News over at Fangraphs. It's fantastic. Make sure you read it whenever Jeff Zimmerman puts it out. He pulled a quote from Braves hitting coach Kevin Siteser about Swanson changing his approach and opting to go up the middle more so with his hits and to opposite field. And you saw that in the numbers on fan graphs. If you look like his center field percentage was 38% and that was a career high.

And that's something that I've talked about with Tim Anderson as the reason why Tim Anderson has been able to take that next step is because he's been going to center and opposite field and just progressing more so as a hitter. So dude, if Swanson hits near the top of the Braves lineup, like he's going to score 100 runs. and I think right now he's projected for like 77, which is just wild. I love Swanson at this cost. The only thing I'll ask you, Justin, would you rather have Swanson at 104 or Carlos Correa at 127? Because I really like both values.

I mean, anybody who's followed my work for, you know, however long I've been doing this, knows my feud, my blood feud with Dansby Swanson. And I can't believe you would pick him as a gift. not I mean I was the guy who was like

Danzie Swanson is like a fine major league player this is when he was the number one overall prospect right? I said he's going to be a fine major league baseball player or my fine major league baseball player but like he's never going to be like the elite number one fantasy guy that people were drafting him for

and I got a lot of heat like I mean I think I ranked him like 20 or I think yeah I think I ring like 28th to 29th one year at shortstop and people lost their mind. And I was right, by the way. That being said, like, I think he's a fine player. My biggest issue was Swanson, because, I mean, he was good last year. And the nice thing was he played all 60 games.

The problem is he's never played above 144 games at the major league level. He's a dude that gets banged up and misses time. And he doesn't necessarily have that caring tool in fantasy that makes him super interesting as a top 100 pick. And so, like, I'm actually fading him at this price. I'd much rather have Correa, who has shown the ability to be a second round pick, a first round pick, you know, and is still going to be on, you know, it's going to be a less loaded Houston team, but it's still a pretty loaded team.

If Swanson can stay on the field for, and play 150 games, you know, batting second in that lineup, if they continue to bat him there, Like he could be an amazing compiler. And, yeah, and, you know, score 100 runs, you know, hit 20 plus home runs, you know, steal, you know, 10 bags. And you'll be stoked with that price. The problem is, like, I just don't trust the dude to stay on the field yet. Like, he just hasn't shown that ability. And this whole, like, he was the exception to that, you know, rule where people were, you know, saying,

oh, you know, if he could just stay healthy for 60 games, it's a short season. Maybe he could stay healthy. Well, he's the one guy that did it. And it, well, it was great. Like, it wasn't like an out-of-this-this-world stat line. Like, it wasn't like this dude one-year league. It was like, hey, nice. I got a really good value from a guy who was going, like, pick $250.

But now he's going to pick 100. Like, I just don't want Dancy Swanson. There you go. It's about time, Justin and disagreed with a player that I have on here. He was also great in the postseason for what it's worth. I mean, we're using a bunch of small sample sizes. So let's do it one more time with the playoffs. 12 playoff games.

He had three homers, two doubles. a triple and had two steals as well. Entering its prime age, 27 years old, I think a lot does come down to the health. If you could stay healthy, I think we get like a 20 plus homer, 10 to 15 steals and just really good counting stats with like a 270 batting average.

Yeah, it's Marcus Simeon, right? It's a good line for, you know, as long as the guy plays. The hard part is if he doesn't play, then it's not that great of a line. It's like it becomes really boring. He's not a guy who's going to, win your league or lose your league. He's going to be a glue guy either way. I just don't

typically want to go for glue guys in the top 100. All right. We're running out of time here, Justin. So if you want to combine your outfielder and your starting pitcher together, we could do that right now. All right, let's do it. To be honest, I've got like a million pitchers. And so I'm just going to like randomly close my eyes and point and pick one. So I'll start with my outfielder. That's Cedric Mullins going to pick 385. He left. off for Baltimore a lot. I mean, there's no reason for them not to let him just play every day. He's got power.

He's got speed. I think he can get for batting average. That's the question mark. Like, how much contact is he going to make? But, like, I think he's just a really sneaky guys. No one's paying attention to in Baltimore. Man, so many guys I could pick. Honestly, if you want to rattle off a few of them, just feel free.

I'm going to rattle off then. Okay. Patrick Corbin was a top 10 pitcher coming into last year. He's going to pick 154. for Frankie Montas, once he got past the back issue, he was fantastic. He was fantastic in 2019. Love me some Frankie Montas. Joseo Cudy missed most of the season, but it was fantastic when he came back, going to pick

212. Dane Dunning was great in his, you know, rookie season, gets traded to one of the best pitcher parks in baseball, that new Texas, you know, dome that looks like a barn, going to pick 291, give me all that. Devi Garcia was one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball came in, pitched well, and is going at 305 on the Yankees. And, like, he's starting. Like, I don't like him long term because I think the body may break down because he's so small.

But for 2021, I'll take that at 305. Hunter Harvey is the closer of Baltimore, going to pick 395. Carlos Martinez, I'm going to give him a wash because he got COVID, who was on the Cardinals, played those, all those double-headers, weird season, going to pick 431 for a guy who used to be a top 25, top 30 starting pitcher in the league. And then Jose the clerk, he's going to be the closer if he is healthy. He's got the contract. They just traded Jonathan Hernandez.

He's going to pick 515. If you want your third or fourth closer, 515, that's a gift. They're all my pitching gifts. Well, not all of them, but a lot of my pitching gifts for you guys. Boom. Christmas came early. Damn. That was got a lot of names on that.

I actually just order my Texas Rangers hat because I'm so excited. Nate Lowe, Dane Dunning, someone I'm really excited about as well. I personally hope that they go with DeMarcus Evans, but there's certainly a chance that Jose Leclerc is the closer for the Rangers. Again, I don't have as many names because obviously I'm not as prepared as Justin, you know, just hosting a podcast or anything, no big deal. But Nick Senzel is someone that I still like, and I guess I'm finding a theme here where it's like if these guys stay healthy, they could probably be really good.

Senzel has not been able to stay healthy. for his career, but in the 127 games, he's played to this point. 14 home runs, 16 steals. If he comes close to like 140, 150 games, I think we can get a 2020 season out of Senzel. Prospect Pedigree is there. And he got up to a really good start. The first 14 games of the season, I had like two homers, two steals.

He was hitting 25% line drive rate. And then he, like, missed a month with COVID. So I just kind of like throw the season out for Senzel. But I still think there's something there. And the other one, just sticking up with the theme, is Jameson Tayaume, who is going at pick 237.9. He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2019. So he will be 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery in February when pitchers and catchers report.

And apparently all reports have been great so far throwing like mid-90s with his fastball. And apparently he has developed more spin and movement on his slider. He said before it was more like a cutter And now it actually has like more sweeping action to it So James and Tyone Look we know what his upside can be He can perform like a top 50 player in general And he's going outside the top 230s

So Senzel and Tyone for me Any interesting either one Justin? I mean Senzel's an interesting guy Because the prospect pedigree He just can't stay on the field And I mean That is that is the bugaboo with both these guys is they can't stay on the field.

And I think Senzel still is young enough where we go, I give him a chance to really figure it out. Tyon, man, I do not get this love for Tyon. Like I understand like the raw skills. And if this was like MLB the show and we could turn off injuries, like we could turn him into like a top 15 pitcher. And so like I see where people go like, okay, all he's got to do is stay healthy. The dude has never been healthy.

Never. he sprained an ankle coming out of the womb. This is like a guy who just, he's never been healthy his entire career, like going all the way back to the minors was an issue. And now we're talking about a guy who has not pitched since 2019. Like he's going ahead of guys like Corey Klover, James Paxton,

you know, Nathan Heavaldi going in the same area. Justin, that's a great group of guys that all sprained their ankle coming out of the womb. Sure. But, like, like, Paxton was just, like, a top 20 pitcher. Like, like, it, like, it just was that. Like, so now we're going to bank on a guy who we, we have no idea.

Like, what kind of mileage can we even expect from a Jameson tie on in, in 2021? Like, are they really going to let him go above 120? Like, I wouldn't. I mean, I have no. I know he threw, like, he threw, like, 191 in, in 2018. But that was, that was now three years ago. Like, it's, like, we're no longer. like, like, he's got to be able to ramp up.

And, you know, do they want another, was it Nick Birdie situation that happened in Pittsburgh where, like, they pushed him? Or they said they were being cautious with him and then he blew out his arm again. Like, I don't know. Like, I understand like people chasing that dragon, but I'm just, I'm not. I'm just not with it. And I don't get it. Like, I'd much rather have his teammate going later with Mitch Keller 305. give me that.

I like Mitch Keller too, man. I love the Pirates pitchers. You know, Joe Musgrove has, I think I've become like synonymous with Musgrove. Like, I love Musgrove and now even his price is getting a little bit too high. But let's,

let's wrap up with some, have a little fun here. Top three Christmas slash holiday movies. I don't know if you're like a big movie guy or if you, you've seen every Christmas movie. Like, honestly,

Scott brings up movies all the time that I haven't seen. And like people just tweet Amelia. How can... Have you ever lived? How have you not seen these movies? So there's a lot that I haven't seen. But your top three, top three Christmas or holiday movies, Justin.

Are we going one at a time? Or we all three? Throw me all three. Start at three and work your way to one. Oh, start at three. Okay. National Lampoon's Christmas vacation. Like, it's...

I just watched it for the first time ever last weekend. It's absolutely fantastic. It totally holds up. And I'm really not that old. Like, I'm 36. So like it like I didn't watch it like when it was in the theater or anything like that. But it's just a movie that's I've seen a million times like replayed on TV. And it's just so good.

I mean, it's like prime Chevy Chase. And it just yeah, it's just so well done and so funny. And you can just laugh. And like now as a parent like and being a husband like I totally like like I really empathize with the character. You know, in a way that I maybe I didn't, you know, 10 plus years ago. I love that movie You know Then number two

It's a Wonderful Life It's a complete classic You know Mike Gianella has a fantastic threat on this I don't know if you've ever seen it Where he talks about That it's not really a Christmas movie It just takes place at Christmas

And in the same way that my number one Die Hard isn't really a Christmas movie It just takes place at Christmas But that makes it a Christmas movie So But it is a classic. I mean, Jimmy Stewart, if you've never seen it, go watch. It's a wonderful life.

It's one of my favorite movies ever made. But if we're ranking it as a Christmas movie, it's number two to die hard, which is like yippy Kai Amf her. I don't know if I swear it or not. So it's just, it's a movie I watch every Christmas Eve while I'm rapping the last few of presents with my wife. And it's just so much fun. It's action-packed.

It's like the antithesis of what a Christmas movie is supposed to be, but it's got this cult, like, following of people that say, it's a Christmas movie. It's the greatest Christmas movie ever made, and I'm on board. It absolutely is a Christmas movie. I wish Adam Azer were here to yell at us about it. But it's also on my list. Is it number one? I don't know. Number three for me, I have, I don't know.

Like, is this a Christmas movie? Is it like a Hanukkah movie? A Crazy Nights is this amazing? Like the animated movie with, um, obviously. Obviously, Adam Sandler, it's just so great. It's great story. Tugs on the heartstrings a little bit. It's obviously hilarious, too.

Like the little old guy, Whitey, he's just, like, falling down and just, God, it was so funny. So really enjoy A Crazy Nice. Number two for me, I do have Die Hard. And I really do believe that it is a Christmas movie. Takes place at a holiday party. They're heavy themes of family.

The director said it himself that, like, he didn't expect it to be a Christmas movie. That wasn't the idea going in, but, like, he now considers it a Christmas movie. So if he says it, I think it's true. Of course, Argyle was playing Christmas in Hollis and the limo. Like, let's be, let's be honest. That's one of the best, it's one of the best Christmas songs as well. So that's number two. Number one, just friends. I said this recently. I love this movie.

Ryan Reynolds, uh, dressed up as a big, big dude, you know, singing, I swear by all for one. Dusty Dinkleman as like, dude, this movie is just all over the place. I watch it every year on Thanksgiving with my family as like a kickoff to the holiday season. And I just think it's so funny. Have you ever seen Just Friends? I've not. And I've never even seen eight crazy nights.

I mean, so I'm going to have to, obviously I'm going to have to go and watch these movies. Like I'm, you know, Christmas time right now for us in the Mason household is, like there are Christmas specials constantly playing. That and Frozen because I have a two-year-old and she just loves Frozen.

I'm sorry. Not sorry for you having a two-year-old, obviously. I'm sorry that you have to watch Frozen. You know what I mean? Two is an interesting age. It's like my least favorite age. But yeah, no, we watch Frozen about 20 times a day.

It's, I can go word for word with Olaf right now. But I'll definitely have to put those two movies into my rotation to kind of check it out and see what they're all about. Justin Mason, dude, thank you so much for joining us here on the podcast. Again, co-owner of Friends with Fantasy Benefits, creator of the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. I listen to them, sleeper in the bus with Paul Sporter. Make sure you follow them on Twitter at Justin Mason FWFB.

Justin, is there anything else that you'd like to promote while you're here? Yeah, Friends of Fantasy Benefits. We're doing our annual draft guide. It'll be out January 2nd or hopefully January 2nd, hopefully, hopefully. It gets better and better every year. So it's super cheap. You can get on Amazon or you can email me, Justin Mason Fantasy at gmail.com. Signups for TGFBI and the TGFBI satellites are up.

TGFBI is only for people in the industry. So you have to be producing some sort of content. Go to TGFBI.com. You can apply there. If you want to win your way into TGFBI, the way to do it is get into a satellite league and win that league. And then you're in next year's TGFBI.

So definitely go over to TGFBI.com, sign up for TGFBI or one of the satellite leagues. And then Pada Palluzza. We're going to do Pottalooza again, which was me sitting in a chair for 12 straight hours, just talking fantasy baseball with a bunch of people in the industry. to be determined, so follow me on Twitter at Just Mason FWFB, or hit me up on Facebook and get all the information for that.

Awesome, dude. Really appreciate coming on for Justin. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching. I also want to wish a very happy holiday season, happy and healthy. Thank you to everybody for sticking around all season. It was my first year here at Fantasy Baseball today, and people, for the most part, have been very welcoming,

so I really do appreciate all the kind words that I'd really. received and just people sticking around and listening and watching to all the content that we produced this year. So I really, really do appreciate it for Justin. I and Frank, thank you for listening and watching. We'll be back again next year. No, that's not true. We'll be back in next week. Bye-bye.