Fantasy Baseball Today - Early ADP Gifts & Players to Target w/ David Mendelson! (12/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 22, 2022

Frank Stampfl and Chris Welsh are joined by David Mendelson (@DMendy02) to reveal their top ADP gifts based on early drafts. Which players present the best value right now? (3:40)- David Mendelson joins the show (6:00)- Last year’s gifts (10:00)- 5th best ADP gifts (22:00)- 4th best ADP gifts (32:20)- 3rd best ADP gifts (45:40)- News: Drury to the Angels (51:33)- 2nd best ADP gifts (1:03:15)- Best ADP gifts Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Ho, ho, ho. Welcome in to a very festive edition of Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, December 22nd.

Frank Stample joined by Chris the Welsh. and a special guest that we'll get to in just a bit. Today on the podcast, we're going to have a lot of fun. We're talking early ADP gifts, average draft position gifts, top five draft values based on early drafts from three different people. So you're getting 15 players that we think are great values right now. Welsh, how goes a buddy? Carlos Correa, kind of wild.

What's going on? Kind of great. By the way, hopefully 15. We're having a big debate, which maybe we'll hit before we talk about this. Also true. Will there be crossovers? we are going to set some over underlines on the potential crossovers we think that are going to happen. Yes.

So I want everyone to picture this for a second because this was just, it was a great moment. And I appreciate, you know, whatever I get to contribute with CBS and Frank having me on. As a little early Christmas present that I got to open, I got to go out into the middle of nowhere, into the woods and do a little camping trip for one night. It was snowing and it was great. I'm never in the snow. And I wake up early because you don't sleep well in the woods. And I have a text. and I look, I'm looking and I see, oh my God, Carlos Correa is a met.

And I go, what? And then I see another text. It goes, Frank is like, can you do an emergency pod right now? And I'm like, I'm in the woods. I want to do this pod, but I'm in the middle of the woods and I can't do it. And I missed out doing the emergency pod. But these might be my absolute favorite type of signings in free agency is this type of chaos. Thinking of Carlos Crea in a Giants jersey.

and then literally not being brought out and maybe 24, 48 hours later, he's now a New York met third baseman. Wow. Absolute bonkers. If you want to hear more about it, Chris Towers and I did an emergency podcast earlier today. That is in your feed.

That's on YouTube. You can watch it. You can listen to it. Scott White actually jinxed us the other day because he said, all the signings are done. You won't need me. You know, no more emergency podcasts. We're all good.

The first day of Scott's vacation, emergency podcast. So I would just like to put that out on the record. I'm Blame and Scott. I mentioned that we have a special guest on the show today. He was actually here for this very podcast last year. So if you are a loyal listener, you already know who it is.

The co-founder of Triple Play Fantasy, contributor to the 33rd team and a host of other players. Honestly, I would read them all, but it's kind of like a laundry list, like a food shopping list. There's like so many different things that this gentleman does. I'm not going to read all of them. I'll let him tell you all about what he does.

The slayer of donuts, the eater of chicken breast protein chips. and the man who witnessed my very best round of golf that I have ever played. Make sure to follow them on Twitter at Demendi O2. David Mendelso. What's going on, buddy?

Dang, man, you leave me speechless after a good intro like that, man. What's up, fellas? Getting to hang with my two guys, Welsh and Frank tonight, man. I can't imagine a better thing to do before Christmas. So much great stuff to talk about. And by the way, I think you're just being modest because, man, you were looking like you've been playing golf for years when we went out and did that round.

So I don't know. Far and away, my best round of golf. golf ever. I am not a good golf player. To be totally honest, I started playing last year, and I routinely shoot like 105, 110. I'm really bad. Like, I'm trying to get better. I think, I think you saw me shoot sub 90 or around 90. It was crazy. I don't know what happened, but man, we've got to play more together. Because you, you brought the best out. Frank steps up to the challenge. Yeah, he brought the best out of me out of my hybrid and just sending that thing 200 yards on a rope. The hybrid. I still want that hybrid.

It is a season of giving. Well, Welsh. We'll get to Welsh in just a bit. Mendie, let me know everything that you got going on right now. Let the good people know because, like I mentioned, I know you got a million things going on right now. Yeah, well, I'm doing obviously the triple play fantasy stuff all day, every day. We do in football, closing out on the season with the weekly podcast. We got the weekly baseball show.

We do every week throughout the off season. For the 33rd team, I'm doing weekly waiver wire videos for them. I don't know what I'm doing the off season yet. And then fan tracks, fantasy pros, I'll probably be doing. rankings and articles throughout the off season. Have not done them yet, but that will probably get going once football ends. And yeah, just try to stay busy. It's always something going on.

But, yeah, again, just pumped to be here with you guys tonight doing some ADP gifts, man. This could be fun. And I mentioned we did this last year. So full transparency, let's reveal those names. Let's look back and see how we did. Look at those, baby. Mendie's picks from last year. We did, we each did five.

Bobby Witt, Jr., Caching. That was great. Score. Alex Kierloff. Sorry. Tanner Halk. He got like a handful of saves. I might give you partial credit for that one.

Aaron Ashby, not so much. Christian Javier, I mean, two league winners out of five. Christian Javier and Bobby Witt, Tanner Huck. I'll give you two and a half out of five. I think that's good.

I think that's actually, especially with Javier and Bobby Witt, just absolutely crushing it there. Can I say Ashby is like the biggest tease because his peripherals are still incredible and he just doesn't perform. I don't know why. And I don't know if I should be scared to draft him this year or not

because he still looks like he's a tantalizing pick this year. Yes, that is a fair point. He still has the great underlying numbers. Pitching through injury, you know, sometimes some of that stuff can be fluky. But we'll see how he looks in spring training. That is Aaron Ashby. My picks from last year, Pablo Lopez. I was all over Pablo Lopez.

And he was like, he was kind of good. He was really good in the first half. Willie Adamas, awesome. Logan Gilbert, very good. Joe Adele, not good. Alex Cobb, I think Alex Cobb was pretty good. You know, we put a few halves together. I think it's like three, three and a half out of five Welsh.

I don't know. What do you give me there? Yeah, three. I was about to say, I think there's like two halves that I would put in there. Adele's a big stinker, maybe like Cobb and Gilbert or, I mean, like one of that combo, it's funny because that whole like Adomis is batting average stunk, but he put up great counting stats. So, yeah, I think there's a couple halves and I think that's a solid three that you put together. Really only one definitive stinker in Joe Adele.

So between us, we gave five good ones. I mean, that's pretty solid. 50%, right? We'll take 50%. Hopefully we could do a little bit better this year. Let's jump right in because again, we have hopefully 15 names that we're talking about today. This is using NFBC ADP. And let's pull that up, see how many drafts have been done at this point.

137 drafts have been done over at the NFBC. So a pretty good amount of data. And you can bet that throughout January and February, those numbers are only going to skyrocket. Lots of drafts going on. in the next couple of months. Over under for picks that we have the same between all of us. I'm setting the line at one and a half.

See, that's the line because we talked about this before that there's 15 names on this list. We kind of had a little bit of a marker of like in couple, maybe inside of the top 200, a couple out. I'm going to tap the over. I'm worried about it. I'm worried about it because I went hard on these guys and I'm going to probably upset everybody with one

and I'm going to open some eyes with at least two. But I'm going to hit the over at one and a half. And I avoided a few that I thought could get on this list. Mindy, over under. I'm taking the over. You guys do a show together every week. So you guys definitely, I feel like, could be in on some of the same guys. And I don't know.

There was just the vibes before the show I was feeling. I was like, this is happening at least twice. So I'm with you all. So I'm over. So, hey, Frank, I'm going to do this real quick. I think I know who one is. I've got a little piece of paper right here. I'm going to write his name.

And if we get there, I'm going to see if I can get right. And you guys could guess if you want as well. I've got some little sticky notes. All right. And I am going to, I have written his name, the one player I avoided thinking he would get on there. You said you think there's one that you and me are both on. I've written his name down and we'll see if we get there. We shall see.

I came into this exercise thinking, yeah, I'm going over as well. fade the public. Let's go under. We're not going to have more than... We're not going to have two or more names on all of our same lists here. Let's jump right in again. We have a lot of names to talk about. And this is countdown style from five to one ranked by our confidence level, not ADP.

So I think we're going to have a... We're all scattered. Maybe some inside the top 100, 100 to 200, outside the top 200. We're going to be all scattered, but they're ranked from five to one in terms of our confidence level. So keep that in mind. Welles, we are starting with you. Your number five gift, early ADP.

All right. Well, I'm going to go with a pitcher. And on my list, letting everybody know, I've got two pitchers and three hitters that you can be on the lookout for. This might be kind of a boring pick last year, though. He did have a over 9K per 9, had a sub 3 ERA, and is an outside the top 200 type of pick. And let me give you a little bit on this guy whose name is Patrick. Patrick Sandoval, who is my number one here. His ADP is 217 on NFBC right now,

and he's just a fascinating pick. So I told you about the K-per-9. Last year had a 13.3 swinging strike percentage, which was 20th best among pitchers with 100 or more innings. That's a pretty impressive number. He also had a 29.2 CSW, which is a pretty solid one. Of those 20 pitchers who had the 13.3 or higher swinging strike percentage, only four pitchers, or I'm sorry, the CSW of the CSW, four pitchers that

ranked higher on swinging strike percentage had a lower CSW. So the 20, 13.3 higher swinging strike percentage, lower CSW, take four names off that list. He was one of only two players with that high of a swinging strike percentage that have gone outside the top 200 on that list. So all of those guys in that swinging strike percentage and what he put up, only guy to go outside the top 200. The other one's ridiculous one. It's Cacucci, but a 2-9-1 ERA had a little bit, maybe worrisome Sierra, it's at 3.94. Last year, only six wins. You've got a more supported offense that's on there. The six-mount rotation theoretically can take a little bit of way, but there's a little bit more rest. Steamer projections have him right at 9K per 9 this year, 11 wins, which will take, and a not

horrific 3.72 ERA. So bottom line, what I'm getting at is, you know, we talked about the change-up with him as well. There's great stuff. there's a great swinging strike percentage. There's an overall K percentage that line up together, and you usually see that inside, firmly inside the top 200. So if I'm looking for late round value pitchers, the ADP on Patrick Sandoval is fantastic. And it really could be 50 spots higher

if you think about what this team has built up and where he is building into. So I got a little convoluted with all my swinging strike percentage stuff. But the bottom line is he is in the upper echelons as far as CSW goes, and the upper echelon of getting strikeouts. He's got a big punchout pitch, and he's on a team that has more supported often. So Patrick Sandoval, I think, is a gift

outside the top 200 for you 80 peers. I think we're good for now, right? Mendi, you don't have Sandoval on the list? I don't have Sandoval on the list. I was getting nervous, but no, okay. I do like the pick, by the way. I do like the pick. The pitch mix was kind of weird last year.

I remember watching each start, and I would say, why doesn't he throw the change up more? Maybe there was something underlying why he didn't use the pitch a little bit more, but it is a fantastic pitch. 2.15 batting average against 44% whiff rate, completely up to slider usage as well.

So moving away from the fastball. I think there's a lot to like there. The whiffs are awesome. Gotta try to improve the control and the command. That's been the biggest problem for Patrick Sandoval. Two seasons in a row now, 3.6 walks per 9 or higher. And as a result, his whip this past year was 1.34.

So if you plan on taking Sandoval, If you want to almost build your draft backwards, okay, I want to get Sandoval late. Maybe just attack some better whip pitchers early on in your draft, a George Kirby, a Shane Bieber, a Joe Musgrove, something like that. Keep that in mind. And then you could take your chance. Yeah, and I want to point out a lot of those big strikeout pitchers suffer from that similar. You know, it's like a Dylan Cs type of thing. He's not as a strikeout ability of Dillon C's.

But Patrick Zandoval is a guy on a full workload that could push 200 strikeouts this year and could walk into more wins than we're typically used to. or they projected 11. You could be 13 or 14. That's a difference between him being in the lower echelon of post 200 pitchers and him bumping up is a few more innings and a few more wins with maybe slight changes in where the pitch mix goes and a little bit more control. That's how close we are. And that's why it's an ADP value.

Boom. Number one. By the way, this podcast can be a little bit loosey goosey. Anyone who listens to note like normally I have structure. I have rundown. I have like notes for every single player. know every single thing that's going to happen on the podcast. Today, no notes.

Everything is a surprise. I don't know any of the players that we're going to talk about. No, I'm good. I feel pretty good with it. I'd be nervous. I feel pretty good with it. Anyway, let's get to Mendie's number 5 ADP gift in early drafts. All right, this player last year, well, let me start with his ADP.

He's 80P of 415. It's actually jumped up to 408, so he's basically free. He made you go, his name is Shamanai, and he made you go, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. because I mean, he had a horrible year last year. I don't need to read all the bad numbers. You guys have that horrible memory in your head. But this was a guy, career 407, ERA, 406 FIP,

and he's used the same arsenal pretty much the last couple of years. He had a sinker. He's thrown over 60% of the time. But in 2022, the pitch actually had two and a half fewer inches of drop than any other sinkers he's thrown in the past and also about an inch less horizontal run. and what really killed Sean Mania last year was the home runs per nine. 1.65 home runs per nine, which actually ranked second highest among all pitchers with at least 130 innings. And if you look, obviously, the 496 ERA 453 FIP are not great, but he did have a 390 Sierra and a 396 X FIP.

Those are more in line with his career numbers. We talked about the home runs per nine that coincided with the home run to fly ball rate being 14.9% in 2020. he has a career 13.1%. Why am I excited about Sean Mania, that being said? So there's a guy that I call Spider-Man on the Giants name Logan Webb. Now, Logan Webb has adapted the seam-shifted wake approach to leverage his change-up and his sinker, and the Giants have been known to try to use the seam shift and wake with their pitchers. Now, what does Logan Webb throw the two most pitches he throws?

A sinker and a change-up. That is Sean Manaya's two pitch mix. that's what he throws the most. I do think they're going to work with him with the seam shift awake approach, which for those that don't know what seam shift awake, I'm definitely not the best to explain it, but pretty much what it is is the balls coming on the same axis. The VLOs are roughly the same, similar spin rates,

but the movement on the pitches are very different. And I think they're going to work with him using the seam shift awake approach, just like they did with Logan Webb. We already know how good the Giants are with these reclamation projects, and he's free. Again, going after pick 400, I think you take, obviously, with the fact that the Giants have him, but I think he's going to be a completely different pitcher this year.

You know, I accuse listeners and other fantasy players of doing this. And so, you know, obviously, that means I do it myself, right? I drafted Sean Mania in so many spots last year, and I just have this nasty, nasty taste in my mouth. I don't know if I can go back, but everything you're saying, Mendi is absolutely right. Like, there is no better landing spot for him than the San Francisco. Giants. It's a great ballpark to pitch in. It's a great organization. They know how to get the most

out of their pitchers, most of their players, if we're being honest. The only thing I saw like his splits last year, he got destroyed by the Dodgers. He's still going to face the Dodgers. So maybe don't ever play him against Los Angeles. You don't want to do that anyway. But yeah, in the right matchups, I think that it can work. Welsh, any love for Sean Manaya? I personally want to really like Sean Manaya. I think what you guys did with the organization, I think is a really important part. Like I would have said maybe the same feelings if you were like a mariner. It's the same thing.

Like organizations that really know how to curate their pitchers and Dodgers would have been the same thing. Like my God, if Sean Mania would have went to the Dodgers, look how we're kind of fawning over Noah Cinegarde and how garbage he's been. But you go to an organization that can maybe hone in some of the skill set. Mania definitely has it. He always has. It's just the command and the control and the feel for pitching. got lost. And I do think that he can get it found in San Francisco. I would say the thing that I can love about this is that he's free. That would be the big thing for me. He is free.

So deeper leagues, I absolutely would take a shot in it because he is one of those reclamation projects that's worth it. In smaller leagues, 10 and 12, I might just monitor early on in the season or even spring training to see what type of information we're getting out. But I think it is very, very feasible. This is a dangerous game that I'm playing right now. So hopefully I don't give away any more picks, any other players, any other people's picks here. But look at this range of pitchers right here. Right around pick 400. Ross Stripling, now his teammate was really good last year as well. Now he's going to San Francisco. Drey Jameson is right here in this mix as well with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Brian Beow, I think really showed us something down

the stretch for the Boston Red Sox. Jose Cantana now pitching for the Mets. These pitchers are going around pick 500 rather. They're free. And I think they're all pretty interesting. So just names to remember, again, we got a lot of time before people are actually drafting. ADP gift number five for me, I am the first person who is going to bring up a hitter here today, and he's going at pick 241, and his name is Tristan Kossis. That is who I am talking about here today. This is a really small sample size, but let's have some fun with sample sizes, right? First 14 games for Tristan Kossis last year, he hit 0.79, 27%.

strikeout rate. His final 13 games, 316, 22% strikeout rate. He had five homers in those 27 games. Three of them went to opposite field. One of those came off of Garrett Cole. I watched, obviously, a lot of Yankees games. I saw him hit at least two, maybe even three homers against the Yankees last year. His power is so easy. He can hit to all fields. He can hit it over the green monster. It doesn't matter. And he also has plate discipline. I love that as well. And a hitter 19 walks to 23 strikeouts in the small sample size for Tristan Kossis last season. Could be hitting in the middle of a not great lineup, but I still think they have enough run producers there

where there's going to be a lot of RBI and run scoring opportunities. Obviously comes with the prospect pedigree. I'm all in. As a utility bat, your corner infielder in a deeper league, you're playing a points league, a shallower format, stick them on your bench, see what happens. I think the upside is absolutely massive here. Mendi, any love for Tristan Kossis outside the top 200?

I mean, Eric Hosmer is not going to be a roadblock for him anymore. And I'm trying for the other first basement. I brought a blank top of my head that they have to. Bobby, thank you. Bobby Dolbeck there. And I think that experiment's done. He's been active on the trade block. So, I mean, the path is his there to contribute every single day.

The Red Sox obviously look like they're trying to compete again. I know they didn't get a ton of necessarily top free agents, but they're in a market where you need to compete. And Tristan Kossis has the prospect pedigree. We've seen it. His name talked about over the, years. Even people that didn't know prospects knew who Tristan Casas was just because of how hyped up he was. This is the time they take the training wheels off and they let him go out there and see what they have in Tristan Casas. So I think, I mean, the power is legit. Like you said, he should have everyday time over at first base. And he should be in a pretty decent lineup. So I could definitely get behind a past 200 ADP, like for sure. Also, uh, cheaper than that other rookie prospect first baseman that's going out. They're just going to throw that out there quite a bit cheaper when people are taking

those risks. Tristan Costas looks like quite a deal and quite a gift, Frankie Stamps. Yes, I have a feeling I know who you're talking about. No more name dropping. Just in no more names. Just in case he's on someone's list here. All right, so we've got three picks in and nothing similar yet. No, no correct answers here. Let's go into ADP gift number four. Again, we're going countdown style here. Wellesh, we'll go back to you here. Number four ADP gift, who you got. All right. So this one is gross. And I do not want to hear the hate. I'm also not going to do what Mindy did.

I'm not going to go that deep. I'm not going to go this deep because you can't, unfortunately, because the playing time is a little bit lost on said player with an ADP of 272. I am a masochist for doing this. But ladies of gentlemen, I have to tell you about Adaberto Mondesi. Adaberto Mondesi, I have to tell you about him because, listen, Mondesey has never gone this low except the rookie year where no one even knew who he was.

He has been a top four-round player for years and years and years. Now, you points leaguers, just shut your ears. He don't really care about this. But in a head-to-head, Roto's standpoint, Mondesie is like the Liam Neeson. He has a very unique set of skills that he can put out for you. The problem is, is he is hurt all the time. I want to say he has never played over 102 games in a season.

and he's been going since 2016, but the guy's speed is undeniable. He was dealing with, I believe it was a UCL injury last year that he is fully recovered from. Here's one of the amazing things. The only one we can really use here is steamer projections. Steamer projections on Alberto Mondesie

have him with the most stolen bases of any shortstop in baseball, and they have projecting him at 118 games, which might be a little bit high. 14 homers, 2, 29 stolen bases. And another amazing fact, I would love to know where they're getting this. And maybe it's because it's waited over a long period of time,

is the strikeout rate is projected around 27%. He has not had an under 30% K rate since 2019. So if you take away the strikeouts, that's a huge key. He just has to play. My only point is this, Mondesi is gross. And I don't have great stuff to be. back any of it because he hasn't been out there enough. The point is there is so much that we're battling and we're putting together for categories

that this is a player that has theoretical multiposition eligibility, however sites are going to deal with him right now, third base shortstop, and you can get elite stolen bases with power when he's out there. He's risky, but he is the cheapest he has ever, ever been. I told you, top four rounds. He's always gone. He is free past. 250 right now for the leader in stolen bases in the middle infield on projections at shortstop.

So I know it's gross and I know it's everybody hates him. But when you can get a guy with that type of stolen bases with the power potential, free, the risk completely takes care of itself. And that's a gift. That's a gift worth not regifting. If you know what I mean. And guess what? If he works out for a little bit, then you can re-gift him.

You can re-gift him off for probably a really good haul. I think it's a gift. I know he's gross. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm not going to give you anything else. It is all about the ADP and the potential upside. Frank, you probably got to hate this one. I don't hate it. Look, you are 100% right. He's routinely been a top 50 pick in rhodo drafts year in and year out. Now he's going well outside the top 200.

I just pulled up his past three season stats combined, which is only 109 games, by the way. But he is hitting 233. with 12 homerters and 44 steals. I mean, if he does that as a, with a 270 ADP, that is like league winning stuff right there. When you see Mondesie out in spring training and you get reports at a camp, Mondesie is healthy.

He's back out. Royals, remember the words a couple years ago where they were like, we don't think we can get two years out of him. Or I'm sorry, 100 games out of him or two years. That equals 100 games. They don't, they agreed that they couldn't get 100 games out of him. But you get out there and you see him healthy, getting playing time.

They're hopeful. He's going to rock it up. Also, there's trade rumors going out there. If they were to trade him to a team that's needy and is going to give him the playing time with a little bit of belief, that also springs in it. I think out of Bertomo Montesey's ADP will one,

almost with a guarantee, I'll tell you, we'll be inside the top 100, or I'm not 100, inside the top 200 between the months of February and March in drafts. If you sort it by that on NFBC, he will 100% be inside the, the top 200, maybe in the 150s, if things are all healthy.

He's just a great value. And even inside the top 200, he could still be a great value. So keep that in mind when it comes to Adelbertomata. And all your hate mail to Frank Stamphle at CBO or something. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, whatever he said. Mendie, you are up next number four, ADP gift. I really like this guy. Not as much detailed analysis on him, but this is, so I'm going to start comparing these

players to like gifts you might get. And this guy's like the Walmart version of your. favorite toy or in this case your favorite outfielder. It's Oscar Gonzalez, who's going right now pick 175. Last year, 296, 327, 461, triple slash 11 homers, 43 RBIs and 91 games. Steamer hasn't projected next year for 275 batting average with 21 home runs and 73 RBI is projected to hit fifth in an improving Cleveland lineup. Now, besides the numbers, this is a guy that struck out an under 20% of his at-bats of the Major League level last. year and just 14% of his at bats in 41 games at AAA. It's a continuous trend that you can see. He's

basically at every level strikes out around 20%, sub 20%, and he really found his power stroke in September hitting six home runs in the month. Now, I don't think he's necessarily going to be a 30 30 home run bat, but he definitely could be a 20 plus bat, a home run bat that has gives you 70 plus RBIs like you see in the projections, and nobody talks about him. And this is a guy that his zone swing percentage is above average at 73%, but his zone contact right at league average, he's very aggressive. And you don't see someone usually as aggressive as him that's able to give you those really low strikeout numbers and also give you the type of power potential he can give you with 20 plus

home runs. I just think he kind of gets lost in the weeds of all these other guys, but you can get him as like your fourth outfielder. I think he's going to be one of the steady guys you can plug in your lineup and you don't think about him the rest of the season. The early ADP for Oscar Gonzalez again, 17. over at the NFBC. And I love this call.

I'm a big fan of Oscar Gonzalez. I think there's more power that can come to 91st percentile max exit velocity. He's just got to raise the ball. A little bit more. He hits too many ground balls. But showed up on the biggest stage

in the postseason against the Yankees, my Yankees, walk off hit in the playoffs there. Yeah, I'm in. I'm in on Oscar Gonzalez as well, especially in an outfield position, which is not great at all. If you can pick him up as like your third or fourth guy, I feel great about it.

Welsh, Hinds down. I mean, this is what he did in the miners too. Oscar Gonzalez did this continuously. He was one of those guys where you would keep looking. You're like, this guy's still hitting 300. He's still putting up power numbers. And you wanted a question, was this going to translate? But he did it at every level.

I actually remember seeing him at the very low levels when they were still the Indians with Cleveland in their backfields over here. And seeing just the big physical presence that he was with everybody. And, you know, he showed off some of those contact skills. you saw huge power potential, but you just kind of believe that the swing was going to maybe open up a little bit. And it didn't. It actually closed in and he made better contact, got great power numbers.

And if he gets to be in any significant part of the lineup, this is low-key a guy that could drive in 100 if he were batting three in like a good lineup of protection around him. That's the contact skills. I think this is a great one. I think this is a super sneaky one. Oscar Gonzalez will not be as cheap next year as he is this year. Can guarantee that.

All right. Next up, my number 4 ADP gift. This is the danger zone. This is a pick that could be on, there could be some crossover here. So I'm just going to preface it all with that. And I'm going to read out the stats first. And I'm going to build it up a little bit before we actually reveal the name of this player. This is a pitcher. Among starting pitchers, among starting pitchers. Among starting pitchers. Among starting pitchers. 13 and a half percent swinging strike rate. 13th. best. Each of his FIP, X FIP, Sierra, XERA. Choose an ERA indicator. It doesn't matter which one. All of them, 3.32 or less. Did it over 135 in a third innings pitched last season. The name here is Jeffrey Springs. And his ADP is 176. Oh, well, since. No, I don't even interrupt you, but like, I knew it wasn't my guy, but no one's going to believe me. I knew it was Jeffery. I didn't know. I knew it was Jeffrey Springs. I wanted to blurt it out to see if I was right because I almost picked him. I actually, I was the Patrick Sandoval one. I compared him off because Jeffrey Springs was one of those guys in the 13% swinging strike percentage. And I noticed Jeffrey and I meant to mention this. Jeffrey Springs had a higher ADP than Patrick Sandoval. And they were similar in that. I love this pick. I'm so sorry. But it literally was going to explode because I was like, Jeffrey Springs.

Jeffrey Springs. And then you said it and I was just so happy. And I love this one. Obviously, I write off on it. So that is not the name that you wrote down on the... It was not. All right. All right. So we'll see what happens. But I know that you like Jeffrey Springs because we did a couple of podcasts towards the end of the season together and we both were talking up Jeffrey Springs.

Like he's going to be a value next season. People are not going to give him his due. And I think we're already kind of seeing that. There are some question marks. He had a huge jump in innings from 2021 to 2022, 42 and 24 and two-third to 135 in a third. So I get it. There is some concern. This is the first time we've ever seen him be a starter over the course of a full season.

but he's on Tampa Bay, and they do a really, really good job with their pitchers, and he is a really, really good pitcher. So Jeffrey Springs is a name that I do like quite a bit. I would ask your thoughts on him, Dave, but we got to keep it moving, man.

There's too many names to get to. Let's get to ADP gift number three. No worries. And Mendie, we'll start with you this time. Your third favorite, ADP gift. All right, so this one, I do think he, I want to save the other two because of the two I'm excited about it.

This guy, I think, is going to just return his value and he's going to be a top 100 player. He's going barely outside the top 100 here. Jose Ibrahim, this is like the equivalent of getting golf balls, like nothing sexy, but they're useful here. And Jose Abraeu, he's turning 36th of January, American League MVP award in 2020,

second in baseball with 863 RBI since his first season in the big leagues in 2014. Now, everybody looks like his power was down last year, 15 home runs after five straight years with an isolated power. mark of over 200 and basically how bad was that it was 97th among 130 qualified hitters. But if you look deeper, the team lead in home runs last year for the White Sox was 17 with Andrew Vaughn. And from talking with just a bunch of White Sox fans and then even we had Scott Merkin on an episode of a triple play podcast and he talked about that the hitting coach there had

changed the approach from the team to take away from the power and focus more on making contact so that all their power numbers plummeted just to basically sacrifice for more contact. But Jose Abrae, you can still hit the ball hard. He ranked in the 93rd percentile on average exit velocity and had a 51.8 percent hard hit rate. He's going to the Houston Astros that have a lineup with Yordon Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Alex Breggman, and MVP of the World Series, Jeremy Pena. And he's replacing Yuli Guerriel, who is one of the worst first Baseman last year. Actually, Astro's first basement as a whole ranked dead last in the American League in F-war. And he's going to fit right in there. He's going to hit in the middle of

that lineup. Doesn't strike out a lot. Struck out, I think 16% of the time last year, if I remember correctly, he's just, I think he's going to be an absolute stud. I'm waiting on first base for him basically almost every single draft I can. And I think he's one of those guys that he'll easily get into the top 100 as more Drasco along. But he's, I think we're all probably big Jose Abraeu fans. I don't think any. of us are scared of him at this price, I'm assuming, right? Mendie, you could have just stopped when you said the name Jose Abrae. Yeah, I figured.

I figured. You don't have to provide. We all looked like we were bobbing to music me and Frank. Oh, I love this song. Jose Abrams. Yeah, that's a great song. Is this Biggie? Yes.

Yeah, I actually, full transparency, I almost chose Jose Abrae you myself. So, yeah, I'm in. His ADP was, his ADP overall right now is 112. Now, I filtered from December 1st on. He signed on November 28th. So this is a sample of 60 drafts that have been done. Jose Abraeu, now inside of the top 100. People like Jose Abraeu on the Astros as they should.

He's going three picks just behind. Vinnie Pee, baby. Vinnie Pasquantino. Welsh, you're on the clock. You're taking a Brayu or Vinny P? Oh, buddy. It is a tough one. I love Pasquantino, but I got to tell you,

I think I'm going to take a Brayu, honestly. And if it also equates to like, there's always a fun game to do, like, oh, I'll pass on this guy. to take this other guy later. I just think the move for Abraeu is just a fantastic spot. You know, there's this one interesting thing I put together. I wrote in a mutual friend of all of ours, Joe PCPia, the Fantasy Blackbook.

I did a whole bunch of which just came out, I think. I did a whole bunch of profiles, and First Base was one of them. And when you're going through, you could, there's a million things you can go and look at and see like how you had huge uncharacteristic drops in a lot of different percentages across the board. but one of the fun things was looking at the different ballpark factors, and he only if he hit 15 homers, he would have hit 20 homers in eight different ballparks

if he had played there consistently. And one of them, 28 homers, if he had hit with the Cincinnati Red. So all that's minorly telling you is like there's a lot of just slowly missed opportunity. I think he was also in the top 10 percentile of XLug. And then you go into a place with just a bunch of great contact hitters, a bunch of guys on base. This is 100 RBI opportunity for him. I think the power is going to increase.

I think you're going to get increases across the board with the brayu. So I love it. I think it's a great pick. I think it's a little bit safer even than Pasquintino. Even though he showed so many great factors, you know, sophomore type of thing, rookie guy. I like a brayu. All right.

Well, we're going right back to you. Number three, ADP gift. All right. Well, this is in the same kind of category. This player, ADP, is 157. And this is a hitter. And he qualifies at a couple of spots. I've talked about him a lot.

I am a big fan of Jose Miranda with the Minnesota Twins. Jose Miranda last year, I mean, faltered a little bit, hit 251 in the first half, 280, though, in the second half, started off the year very strong. Even though you see some of that split, in June and July, both hit over 300. And besides his month of May, which was his first one, he never hit under 250 at any other point in the season. He is a great, great contact hitter who hasn't grown in to the hitter that he's going to be. One of the things I really love about him, looks like he's going to be hitting in like the four or five spot. You want to talk about the type of hitter he is. He was a 241 hitter on 02 counts, which is absurd if you understand O2 counts.

Here's a context for you. And I'm trying to make him as this player, but Mookie Betz hit 198 in O2 counts. Mookie Betz last year did all of his business on 1-0 counts where he hit 311 with 16 homers and in 01 counts where he hit only 21-18 with 15 homers. Well, if we go and take a look at Jose Miranda, Jose Miranda hit 313 in 1-0 counts with 9 homers. And in 01 counts, he hit 242 still with 4 homers. So I'm just trying to build a little bit of a story.

Like this is a guy that has not built up into the player he is truly going to be. He dominated the minor leagues. He can steal bases. He's got real projectable power, but he's also a fantastic hitter who doesn't strike out a bunch and walks like an absurd amount. This past season, he had an under 20% K rate in his rookie year, hit 268 with a 426 slug. This year projected. Steamer has him at 21 homers with a 269 batting average. Now take this into context and let's for a minute, just pretend he's a third Baseman because guess what? He qualifies there. Third base kind of sucks this year.

And if you put him there, those projected 21 homers in a 269 batting average would have him tied for the third best average of all third basemen who are projected to have 20 or more homers, according to Steamer. He actually would be tied exactly when Nolan Aronado, just not with the exact same amount of home runs in under 140 projected games. Minnesota's going to get some guys on base. You've got a Louisa Rise. that's going to be at the top one batting title champion in front. Jose Miranda is going to be in fantastic opportunities. He's proven as a rookie to hit that dramatic against even 02 counts.

When you're behind in counts, he can hit in front of counts. I think he's going to be in a great RBI opportunities. 20 plus homers. I think you can get into the 1990s on RBI and runs. And post 150, I think he's a smashing deal, especially when you consider him as a third baseman. So that is one I feel really confident about. I will be swooping him up in.

all of my drafts, kind of like how I was treating Thai France last year, didn't quite work out. I love Jose Miranda. Gimmy, gimme, give me. Before I narrowed it down to five players that I wanted to include on this list, Jose Miranda was one of the nine. We were talking beforehand. I had nine players. I had to kind of cut it down to five.

Jose Miranda was one of those nine. He didn't make the cut, but I love this call. I love it. Yeah, I'm in on Jose Miranda as well. To me, he's the safety valve at third base. If you miss on everything else, you know, it's a very clear drop-off. I guess now you can include. Correa and that makes he won't have third base eligibility to start, but he'll get it early in the season.

You've got that group of Breggman, Gunner Henderson, Carl's Correa now. They all go, you know, around top 100, 120. And then after that, there's a huge drop in ADP. Jose Miranda is like that next one. If you miss out on everyone else, totally fine getting him. He's actually projected as a $12.5 player, according to Steamer right now, the 10th best third baseman in their projections. So, I mean, nothing else to say there, Wells. Yeah.

I'm glad. I'm glad you like him too because he hits. lefties. He can hit lefties. He hit 260 above both sides of right and left. I just think he's a smashing steel. I'd love to hear that you had him and Mindy. Are you going to write off and sign off on my Miranda pick? 100%. I'm in the closet twins fan, so I watch him a lot. And he, I mean, he's the real deal. Obviously, the low strikeout percentages hit for a ton of power in the minors. And like you said, being that that third base eligibility, he's that type of guy that when you're that experienced fantasy baseball player that you're like, you know what? He's waiting for me there. I'm not going to rush up to

grab that third basement. So I think that's an awesome point you brought up. He's going to be a big part of the twins future, especially as they have all these young guys coming up and being part of what they hope can be a contending team for years to come here. He's, I think, just as safe, as safe and steady as they get. And I love all the analysis you brought in there. I can't add anything else to what you said. So yeah, I'm all about it. Well, she mentioned that Miranda hits the lefties well. My third ADP gift here, he also hits lefties very well. But as a young left-handed batter, which Anyone who listens to this podcast knows I love. When I see

a young lefty that can hit lefties, it is just like something goes off in my brain that I'm just like, I need this guy. I have to draft this guy. It's just like, I love hitters like that. He hit 273 with an 846 OPS against lefties last season. 90th percentile average exit velocity,

85th percentile barrel rate. Currently going right around pick 200. You need an outfielder? Then you need Lars Neupar. Yeah. I am in. I am I know some people might look at the Cardinals. They got a log jam. They got all these outfielders.

They got DHS. Something's going to happen. They're going to make a trade. Someone's going to get hurt. It doesn't matter. Lars Neupar is too good. They need to play this guy. He only hit 228.

But he had a stretch last year. It was like a month stretch where he was like one of the best hitters in fantasy baseball. He had 14 home runs. He had four steals. A 15% walk rate, a 340 OBP. The Cardinals need someone like this in their lineup. A leftie who can provide this skill set. And I am really, really excited about Lars Nupar.

Round 200. You want to wait? Grab Oscar Gonzalez is your third outfielder. Lars Nupar is your fourth outfielder. Chef's kiss. I'm all about it. You guys, Newt Bar? In?

Out? I'm eating the new bar. Yeah. Ah, well seen. I'm in. I'm in. I think this is a fantastic pick. There were rumors, too, that he was a cornerstone of a trade talks and that the

Cardinals were not willing to move off of him and whatever they were. I think it was a Juan Soto one last year and there were some off season ones here as well, that they just didn't want to move off of him. and I do have questions. I do have some questions about the depth of that outfield. You know, I almost, I'm going to tell you, I almost put Jordan Walker on this list. I avoided putting him on, not to drop a name,

because I think there's so many questions, even as their fourth outfielder, if you don't consider Juan Yappez, who's technically, but a bench outfielder is Alec Burleson. They've got so many guys. You would like to see them move off so this doesn't become kind of a platoon, because I think Lars Neupar is one of those players.

It's too good to be platoon. And when I saw him in the AFL a couple years ago, one of the things that stood out was he was always leading off and he was a phenomenal leadoff hitter. I think he would play really great in a one or two hole and he'd love to see that in the future. But you got Tyler O'Neill, you got Carlson, you've got your peasant DH and Burleson behind. I'd love for them to consolidate a little bit. But either way, it's a fantastic pick. Let's take a break.

Before we do that, just a reminder that if you've enjoyed the content all year, we've enjoyed you listening, of course. Give us a five-star review on Apple or Spotify. You can leave a review on Apple as well. Really appreciate that. And if you haven't already, follow us on TikTok at FBTPod. We've got some fun, shorter form content that's been coming out recently. I dropped two shorts today about drop two shorts. That sounds kind of weird, right?

Like I just went around panting people. I didn't do that. I actually just uploaded some short videos online. But they're about Carlos Correa. So if you want to watch them, you can do that on our YouTube account or on TikTok at at FBT pod. Let's take a break. We'll be back right after this.

All right. Let's quickly run through some news and notes. We did a bonus pod earlier today, mentioned that at the top, regarding Carlos Correa to the Mets. So if you want to hear about that, go ahead and listen to that bonus pod. But we did have a few signings. Brandon Drury signed a two-year,

$17 million contract with the Angels. And it was an awesome season for Brandon Drury last year. 263 batting average, 28 homers, 87 runs, 87 RBI. I wrote 87 steals. He didn't have 87 steals. That would break fantasy baseball. Regardless, Brandon Jury was a league-winning player.

People picked him up, and he was a very, he was a quality player. The Angels have done a solid job building out quality depth this year. They've got Gio Orchella, they got jury, they brought in Hunter Renfro. They still have Luis Ranhifo.

Guys are going to get hurt, but I feel like this is one of the better jobs the angels have done in recent years surrounding Trout and Otani with good depth pieces around them. Mendie, come to you here first. The early ADP for brand injury is 199. He has first, second, and third eligibility.

What do you think about the signing to the Angels? I'm probably out on him. We saw the huge decline once he got out of Cincinnati and went to San Diego. In August, he hit 214, a 250 OBP. I think the name people remember the beginning of the season. I'm happy for the Angels that they're trying to get pieces to contend and actually get Mike Trout in the playoffs. But he's inside the top 200.

I think we saw the best of him last year with the Reds. I don't think he has anything close to that with the Angels. And it's not like the Angels have had a bunch of hitters that have made me feel like, you know, Outside of the Mike Trouts and Shoah Oatani's, they've pretty much been lacking and just feeling like they developed hitting. We even saw Brandon Marsh last year. As soon as he left the Angels, the Phillies get him, and they changed his batting stance, and he looks like a completely different player. I'm out on Brandon Drury this year. I spoke about him glowingly, but I actually agree with you.

I'm probably not going to be drafting Brandon Drury. His ADP? Right around Lars Newpar. I'm going to be taking Lars Newpar instead. I will say Taylor Ward is kind of interesting for the Angels and Hunter Renfro. I still kind of like that in the middle of that lineup, but we'll talk about that another day. Matt Carpenter signed a one-year deal with the San Diego Padres, expected to DH, fill in at times around the infield, wherever someone might need an off day.

47 games with the Yankees last year. This guy reinvented himself in a big way. 305 batting average, 15 homers, 1138 OPS. He just pulled the ball in the air like crazy. And as they left-hand a batterer, that worked really well in Yankee Stadium. Welsh, I mean, this guy's pretty much an afterthought. He's going super late in drafts. I'm doing one right now.

I got him in round 34. of a draft and hold than a 15 team league. Okay, you know, that late, sure, I'll take a shot. Do you have any expectations for Matt Carpenter to the Padres? I mean, it's free. I like the role that he can get into. Obviously, I think it's such a great signing too because there's a little protection with not having Tatis for the first month.

They've got a little bit of flexibility in guys that they can move around. They can move Kronerworth around. They can move Hassan Kim, can play multiple positions. And Carpenter is just a full-on leader, which I don't think this team, you know, I have Machado, but I'm talking like veteran, veteran leader. I think that kind of fills a little bit of that role. And yeah, I think it's, I think it's solid. I don't have his high expectations.

But I think we talked about on here a couple weeks back. He kind of reformed a lot of his hitting style working with Matt Holiday in the off season and reconformed his swing a little bit. And that worked well. And we've kind of seen that have, you know, it never worked super awesome. But Eric Hosmer had kind of changed his approach, trying to go for more EV and launch angle-based approaches than just straight contact. And, you know, there might be some tutelage that goes on and some continuations. with Matt Carpenter.

I will definitely be checking him out in spring training as soon as it starts when I go over to the Peoria Sports Complex. But as a free hitter and a San Diego offense, I'll take it. All right. I'm happy you mentioned the working out with Matt Holiday in the offseason because we should mention Cody Bellinger has actually been doing exactly that, working out with both of these guys, Matt Carpenter and Matt Holiday this offseason.

So hopefully something that can help Cody Bellinger get back on track as well. Jordan Lyle signed a two-year $17 million deal with the Royals 4.42 ERA 139 whip. I don't think we're very excited about Jordan Liles. Another Jordan. Jordan Loplo signed a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves, likely to be a platoon partner for Eddie Rosario. I saw some people joking on Twitter.

Platoon partner for Michael Harris. I don't think that's going to happen, but Michael Harris... I don't like that. That's not a very... That's not a very... Michael Harris was very bad against Lefty, so keep that in mind, but I don't think that's why Jordan Laplow is going to the Braves. DJ LaMahue will avoid search.

on his broken toe, which derailed the second half of his season. I read extensively about this because I also drafted him in the slow draft that I'm doing. And apparently he has a broken bone underneath his big toe. And surgery could cause nerve damage, which would be more painful long term. So it's just kind of like a rest and rehab situation. But the first half of the season, DJ LaMayhew, not as good as he was in years past, but he was pretty damn good. He was like 80% DJ LaMayhew that we've seen in the past. So if he's healthy, I still think that he is a quality player.

After missing out on everybody and being spurned by Carlos Correa, unfortunately, the Giants have interest in Michael Kinfordo. I genuinely feel terrible for Giants fans everywhere. So I don't even want to make a joke about this. Hopefully they sign Michael Conforto and I don't know, figure something out because I feel bad. Anyway, let's wrap up with the rest of our ADP gifts. By my count, we have had Z.

Zero crossover. The under, if we're doing live odds, it's probably coming in like minus 200, minus 250, something like that. I'm looking pretty good right now on the under. You're looking good. I think you might. I mean, do you want to cash out?

We've still got two big ones. I'm offering to cash out here. No, no, no, no. We're letting it ride. We're letting it ride, my friend. We're going over to Mendi, your number two ADP gift in early drafts. All right.

I'm bringing out the big guns now. This is the equivalent of getting that Rolex. watch. This is the expensive gift that you're going to pay for and you're not sad about doing it. This is the guy they call sticks. Tristan McKenzie. He is going to pick 95, going as the 27th starting pitcher off the board. I'm telling you guys now, he is going to be a top 12 starting pitcher this season. You look on the surface, stats are very good.

A 296 ERA in 30 games started, 191.1 in 190 strikeouts. the whip just sparkling 0.95 whip. So why do I think Tristan McKenzie can obviously make that leap this year? We saw it at the end of last year if you were watching or you were playing fantasy down the stretch. His last 71.1 innings of the season, he had a 240 ERA. That's the 11 starts with 77 strikeouts. Now his fastball is elite, a minus 17 run value, one of the best pitches. Actually, one of the best fastballs I used to say in all of baseball.

And he's got a tremendous curve ball. which is what many people might know him for to boot with that. And we talked about the whip. Now, this is an interesting article from the Akron Beacon Journal. So it was basically talking about how McKenzie couldn't find the strike zone, but he always had the stuff. But the guardians worked with him throughout the season to basically help him get a better understanding of helping to find the zone. And one of the things that it talks about in this article is his rhythm. And Austin Hedge is helping him out with his rhythm.

But what is really interesting is you have Stephen Kwan, who is one of the best contact hitters in baseball, talking about Tristan McKenzie, what it's like to face him. And he says it's basically like he's coming at you from the top of the tree branches, like right up top here where it's so hard to pick up his pitches because he's coming from so high up, he's like six, seven, and how hard it is to hit him. And when he's on, he's one of those guys that you just can't pick up the ball. Just he has so much movement on his pitches and he competes. he's a gamer. We saw it in the playoffs too. He started game two. He's the firm number two behind Shane Bieber on a team that just breeds pitching like nobody's business here. Everything you read about Tristan McKenzie really looked like he turned the corner last year. The control is obviously the biggest question mark with him. But you saw that the walks go down as the season was going on. That's still going to be a little bit of an issue, I think, going into the season. But the stuff is nasty. And you got to feel good about the team he plays for. Tristan McKenzie, to me,

is a top 12 starter. You're getting him as the 27th starting pitcher off the board. Well, so you know what this reminds me of is someone who has just broken out, but some people are still a little bit hesitant, and they're not ready to buy the breakout until we see him do it again. And then you're already missing out. Then next year you have to draft him as a top 12 starting pitcher. Right now, you can still get Triss McKenzie outside the top 24.

And I do believe that he has that upside. Your thoughts on McKenzie. Yeah, I agree. You know, it's funny that you're saying that, you know, it's coming to mind. these are not same skill sets. So don't like think that I'm trying to say that. But it reminds me of like what happened with Luis Castillo.

Remember like everyone was like kind of read like at first it was, we don't believe. And then we kind of wanted to jump into it. And he was this big value. Like what McKenzie's going to do is if he has a repeated year, you're going to start seeing him pushing up into that like Luis Castillo in those times. Again, that's a bad example because he's not good anymore. But everybody wants to have him.

I agree. I think there's a lot of concerns about the body. also as much as positive we talk about the Guardians, I think there's not the best track record of all of them really working out outside of Bieber. You know, people start to look at the police sack and Savali and stuff like that. And you see some good strikeout numbers, but I think there's a lot of worry about him holding up long term.

But this is a great pick. This is a phenomenal pick. This is one of those guys that's got that high K, high fantasy return upside that, what did you say? It's like 24. It probably has a top 15 potential return. So, yeah,

I think this is a really, really, really solid pick. Last point on McKenzie, something I've always pointed out with him. Because he gives up so many fly balls, he actually does a very good job suppressing home runs. Low babbip and low batting average, which really help his whip.

He is a plus plus whip provider. 195 batting average against since the start of 2020. Third best among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched. That is what Trista McKenzie is all about. Welsh, we're going to you. Number 2 ADP gift now. All right. So this is,

this is tied for one of my top two favorites. So I decided to settle on two for this guy. This guy is one of 20 pitchers currently projected on Steamer to throw 200 strikeouts this year. But he is only one of two to not have an inside the top 180p. So 20 guys projected for 200 more strikeouts. But there's only two that don't have a 180p. funny enough those two are teammates you have no hold on hunter green and nicledolo but

I don't know where you're going I'm taking Nicolodola go let me tell you ladies and gentlemen about Nickledolo is my favorite oh and I got it and I got it oh so I feel so god ladies a gentleman I feel so good I feel right I feel good let me tell you about Mr. Nicolodolo So Nick Ladolo, four pitches used of 10% or more compared, if we're just talking about his teammate, who has a higher ADP, by the way, in Hunter Green,

to two pitches used, essentially, of over 10% or more. As a matter of fact, it's like 95% for Hunter Green between his slider and his fastball. Green had a 28% whiff rate on his slider with a 40% usage. And the reason I bring that up is that fastball was great, but what turned and changed Hunter Green's really career was the ability to throw that slider at times more than he was throwing his fastball.

He kept everybody off. And that's a pretty good whiff rate that's going on. Well, Nicololo with his curveball, he used it 30% of the time with a 46% whiff rate, had almost the exact same K percentage as Hunter Green and a full mile per hour less EV given up than Hunter Green. if I'm playing with some of those comparisons. There's also, I mean, this guy is built off of horizontal movement.

He's got a 40 inch drop on the curveball. He can hit all points of the zone, which is something that I tremendously love. When you look at his pitch mix, he can fill up the upper half, which is so key right now, by the way, to baseball and finding success for pitchers with both the four seam and the sinker. He's got a nice good red spray chart,

if you're looking at it, or the zone chart, where he hit the curve ball in the upper left or the lower left corner, the change up in the lower right. He can hit all points, all points with four pitches, commanding strikeouts. The curve ball is devastating. Nick Ladolo at ADP 137, lower than Hunter Green, is a smashing steel. I will have him on all my teams this year.

and I think David Mendelso will also have him on the team. Mindy, what do you think about Nicola Dello? Do you like him? Is he a fan? He's okay. He's okay. Oh, my God. I was hoping to be the one to bring him up.

I think just judging from how this shows, I think he's probably going to get inside the top 100, like sooner rather than later at this point. He's my number one breakout pitcher this year. He's an easy top 100 pick. I want to give credit to Justin Choi, who wrote this article on fan graphs and talked about on August 6th,

he changed the, he changed his curveball. And he basically, you look at the line three run runs in four point two innings pitched, but that start and over the course of that next week, he added two inches of horizontal movement from that point on. And you combine that with his low arm angle that makes the pitch really hard to pick up. And then he also,

coinciding with that basically new curveball, he started upticking his sinker usage and using it in a clear count-based approach. So he would use in favorable counts, he would use his thinkers and fastballs because hitters would look at those that want to swing at them or obviously with some singers, they would just let them take them. And then it would basically set up for his curveball a lot more. So he basically kind of worked the count better in his favor and really use that curveball to his advantage. He completely changed who he was throughout the season. everything dropped just across the table. He is literally like Tristan McKenzie was the guy that broke out that everybody saw.

Nicodolo people kind of slept on how much he broke out at the end of last season. He's my, he's like the guy like you said, Welsh, I'm taking him every single draft. I guess if we're together, maybe not. Yeah, maybe not. And the last thing I just want to add because I know we're running on tight. It's just like what you said, almost 19 inches of horizontal break on the sinker to then go to 40 inches of vertical drop on the curveball. It's absurd. Everyone liked Hunter Green going into last year when they were both prospects. And I firmly was Nicola Dolo because the command and the multitude of stuff.

Hunter Green right now is pushing maximum level. Where Nicolaolo, we haven't scratched all of it yet. And he's a big, he's a big get here. I think a lot of people, their counterpoint to Nicolaolo will say, but he pitches in Cincinnati. You know, he's not going to get wins. You know, it's a tough ballpark to pitch in. Sure. last year at home, 2.85 ERA, 5.11 on the road. That doesn't make sense to me. I think the home ERA will probably rise a little bit, but he's going to be much better on the road.

I have full confidence saying that in Nicolodolo. He's already pitched well in Great American Ballpark. So he's proved it. I know it was a smaller sample size, but comes with a lot of prospect pedigree, and he put up. He was really, really strong down the stretch. I'm in.

I like both of these guys, but I do think Nicodolo is more refined as a starting pitcher. So I would take him over Hunter Green. as well. My number two ADP gift here, I'm just going to say it. I will draft the Miami Marlins pitching staff every year if you allow me to do it. I just love their pitchers year in and year out. The one that I love most of the season, and I really like last year too, is Jesus Lazardo. Among starting pitchers with 100 innings pitch last season, 21.3% K-minus walk that was tied for 16th with Zach Wheeler. Zach Wheeler, who is a routinely a top 50 pick in drafts, 13.8% swinging strike rate,

also 16th for Jesus Lozardo. His Sierra, 3.28, 19th. Those are three main things, analytics that I look at for starting pitchers. All three of them, he's top 20. Guess what? He's not being drafted as a top 20 starting pitcher. Not even close.

His ADP right now is 152. I think he's around SP 35, like the 35 to 40 range. You get this guy as your SP3 or your SP4 if you're a little bit more aggressive. I'm in. His curve and his change, both over a 40% whiff rate. He throws hard. The control got a lot better.

last year. Pitch is in a good ballpark. Not a great team. Wins are going to be tough to come by. But man, if you're just looking for ratios and strikeouts, I love Hazes-Lazardo every year, and I still love them this year. I'm not going to give you guys the opportunity to talk about him, because we have to get to three more players. And so, hmm, who do we want to go to first here? Last gift. Our top gift.

Oh, actually, Mendi, you already gave your top gift. Yeah. As Nick Legolo. All right, I guess we're going to Welsh. Welsh, your number one ADP gift. What you got? All right. I was going to also see if you wanted the opportunity to cash out. out, but I guess it's a tough point to cash out on the event. Let it ride. Yeah, this is only you versus me, and I don't think you're going to have my guy.

So this is my only guy that is inside the top 100 of all the players that I put on here. Uh-oh. And this player, I very was well known for last year for being a hater, a massive hater of this player. But for me, ladies and gentlemen, it was all about last year, not the future, because at ADP, 76, O'Neill Cruz is my players this year. Did he diggers? No. No, Frank, I think he dodged a bullet.

The ADP is 71. So he said 70. I was like, oh my gosh. So here's my deal with O'Neill Cruz. O'Neill Cruz, let's talk about projections just for a second, which I think is really interesting. Projected on Steamer,

27 homers, 18 stolen bases in 130 games this coming year with a 250 batting average. That's wild if you paid attention to him in the first half, but it's built a lot on the second half of what he did. And pulling this up here last year, 204 in the first half,

245 in the second half with an August, or I'm sorry, with a September October where he hit 288 with six of those homers. Another interesting fact was in that second half, he had a 339 Wobah compared to a 274. That 339 Wobo would have actually been better than like what Jose Miranda put up this last year. The K percentage dropped in the second half, which we needed to get out of him.

But here's my big big. deal with O'Neo Cruz because he's already coming at a high cost. Everybody's aware of that. It's at 76. But let's come back to those projections for a minute. There are only three players last season that put up similar numbers. Again, 27 homers, 18 stolen bases, 130 games. You could in a world pretend that's 30, 20, right?

We could do 30, 20 with 20 more games, even if you don't. Here are the three players that did that last year. Kyle Tucker, 30 homers, 25 stolen bases. Jose Ramirez, 29 homers, 20 stolen bases. The third, Huli Rodriguez, who went 28 and 25. What do all three of those players have in common? Do you know, Mindy? Tell me.

They are all first round picks. They are all first round picks. Those three players I just put out with 130 games on steamer projections. Steamers are not the end of the world. You're gonna see similar across the board, 27 and 18. The difference with O'Neill Cruz, the changes he made in the second half, when you look at those projections, him going outside the top 70s, is equivalent to what Bobby Witt was last year.

You did the same cost and you did the same price right around 60 to 75 on Bobby Witt. You're getting that on O'Neill Cruz this year with projections that are already telling you this is a first round player. He gave you some of the positives, which is all we needed. He shows the skill set. He's on a trash team. I get it. That is one thing that the others don't have except for Bobby Witt. It's worth it.

Even though the position is deep, O'Neill Cruz, outside the top 50. It's a little less risky, but he's showing you first round skill sets. Get Bobby Witt in your mind and draft. The BW word. The BW word gets everybody.

Man, I love that call. The only thing, so my only question I have is, do you worry that with the lack of protection he has around him, that if pitchers start basically, but he's the only threat in their lineup that they start pitching around him, and the fact that he is such in the past shown that he's kind of a free swinger or an aggressive hitter, that he could be pressing and that could definitely hurt his like overall production.

The second part. The second part would be my worry. No one's going to pitch around a player in Pittsburgh. The last time that happened, his name was Barry Bond. So it's not going to happen. So no one's pitching around any Pittsburgh player. But he's also shown with all of this crazy strikeout numbers and volatility. That's the risk here.

He's riskier than all those other guys that I put out there. But you've, hey, you got to risk it. You got to risk it. What is it? The biscuit. You've got to take a risk at 76. It's for how many other guys can you look at in the first round that have overwhelming tell tell signs of first round overall talent

that are outside the top 50. That's why I think I would jump in on this. Yeah, he has a massive range of outcomes. There's no doubt about it when it comes to O'Neill Cruz. I think once the season ended, the comp that I made, or basically what I said the range of outcomes is, it wouldn't surprise me if he's back in the minors at some point this season. It wouldn't surprise me if he returns first round value.

I mean, that's the legit range for O'Neill Cruz. has broken baseball as hard as he hits the ball. And he was doing it against some of the best pitchers in baseball. I remember him hitting an absolute tank off of Corbin Burns. That like a ball that when it landed in the upper deck, it was like still like going straight. It was like still going straight. He broke stat cast.

He has the single, the hardest hit ball in stat cast era history at 122 miles an hour. He is so fun to watch. O'Neill Cruz, so fun to watch. I agree with you. I think he could return first round value. I do think that there is a lower floor there. He's got to figure out the strikeouts. got to get better against lefties.

If those things happen, the sky is the limit when it comes to O'Neill Cruz. But my number one ADP gift is actually someone going right around him at the same position. And he's not someone that you would typically look at

as a league winner because he doesn't steal bases. This is Corey Seeger that I'm talking about. I almost picked him. And just the stat cast numbers are screaming for it. The last time I saw a disparity this big,

it was Marcelo Zuna. I think it was maybe going into 2020 or I think it was from 2019 to 2020 and then OZuna just had like that ridiculous short in season and he was the number one outfielder in fantasy baseball whatever it was. Corey Seeger last year he hit 245

his XBA was 283. He slugged 455 his ex-slug was 510. Now they're getting rid of this shift. He had just put up a career high in terms of power with 33 home runs. He's not your typical, he's not like an O'Neill cruise type. He's not going to do it by stealing bases.

But this is absolutely somebody who if he hits his 90th percentile outcome can hit 300 with 35 plus home runs in the middle of an improving lineup and he just showed again that the power was legit last year. He still hits the ball really, really hard. I'm in, like, especially getting rid of the shift ban.

I mentioned this. We did our shortstop review and early rankings. I almost want to build my draft strategy around getting Corey Seeger in the middle of my drafts just because that's how good I think he could be. I think he could return, you know, top 20 value. this upcoming season.

So at ADP 71, I'm in. My number one ADP gift as of now is Corey Seeger, but we have all off-season to find a bunch more ADP gifts. We don't have to just, yeah, we'll highlight some of them now, but we'll be bringing them to you all off-season long. If you guys can recap your entire list. I guess I'll go first here because I didn't write down your list.

I'm sorry guys. Five to one for me, my top five ADP gifts right now. Tristan Kosses, Jeffrey Springs, Lars Neupar, Hazes-Lez-Lez-Lez-Lez-Lez-Lazardo, and Corey Seeger. Mendi, your top five. We have Sean Mania, Oscar Gonzalez,

Jose Ibrahim, Trista McKenzie, and yes, Nick Ladolo, number one. I love that one. Say it again, Nick Ladola.

All right. I should have said he was number one as well. I've got Patrick Sandoval at number five. Then we move up to Alberto Mondesi. I know,

I know. Jose Miranda's number three, Nick Ladolo number two, but number one in all our hearts. And then, of course, O'Neil Cruz, as my number one, which I was seconds away from taking Corey Seeger as well,

and it would have hit the over. You could have got it cash, but I saw O'Neil Cruz's name and I went, oh yeah, that's my one. You guys did a killer job. I hope everybody enjoyed that because that was a fantastic list, and I'm looking forward to checking it out next year.

I'm cashing out Welsh. What is my cash? What do I get? What's my gift? What do I get? You get the gift of another year of fantastic award-winning, number one fantasy baseball podcast hosting. Let's do it.

And let's recap, Dave Mendi, by the way. If you aren't already, follow him on Twitter at D.Mendi O2. Again, the co-founder of Triple Play Fantasy, contributed to the 33rd team, like a million other places, but make sure you check out his work. Again, can't recommend it enough. Met this guy out, and I didn't meet you in Arizona.

We hung out in Arizona, but met him long before that, and he's a great guy. So make sure you follow him and check out all of his work. We're going to wrap there for Mendi and Welshie. I am Frankie. And we will see you again next week. Enjoy the holidays. Bye-bye.