Fantasy Baseball Today - Early ADP Risers & Fallers! Buy-High on Cristian Javier? (1/3 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 3, 2023

Let's start with risers inside the top-100 picks, starting with Raisel Iglesias (4:55). ... Three early-mid round outfielders are climbing (10:10). ... Are we buying the Cristian Javier hype (18:16)? ... When is the right time to take a shot on Bryce Harper in drafts (21:25)? ... Which hitters are falling down draft boards (25:25)? ... Jose Abreu has climbed inside the top-100 picks (32:44). ... What do we make of these risers (39:00)? ... Why are Jorge Mateo, Josh Rojas, and Ke'Bryan Hayes falling (42:05)? ... There are four solid starting pitchers also dropping (45:10). ... News (50:30): Evan Longoria signed a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks. ... We wrap up with a few mailbag questions (58:06). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Out with the old, in with the new year. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today and welcome to 2023. I am Frank Stamphill joined by Chris the Welsh.

And today on the show, we are looking at early ADP risers and fallers comparing November NFBC ADP to December NFBC ADP. We'll let you know who's rising, who's falling. Obviously, it's a lot of signings and trades and people changing values, but also just some random risers and fallers, and we'll try and figure out why those players are moving right now. We also have a few mailbag questions, so hopefully we can get to those as well. Hello there, Welshie.

How's the New Year? It's amazing. The last episode of 2022 I get to be on with CBS and the first episode, I believe, of fantasy baseball today of 2020. I am honored, my friend, it's a brand new year. There's no reason to not pretend like it can't be awesome. So let's pretend. At least pretend.

I'm trying. Let's do it. Let's do it. 2023, new year, new us, new Welsh. That's right. New Welsh. Not going to do the old same things and be totally manic and totally crazy and totally. pessimistic. No, we're going to, we're in it. We're into 80Ps. I'm into this. I love looking

at the ADP changes. I think it's a fascinating look into the mind of fantasy baseball players in general. We don't want to be beholdant to ADPs by any means, but it gives us a very good value system, especially when, you know, you're getting into moxies and I'm just trying to figure out what's going on. And NFBC people, they're a whole other ball game. It's not 100% translation like we've talked about to any of our normal leagues that we play, but it's going to give you a good idea whether it's signings, or like you said, we're going to just try to dissect what are all these changes about because there's some pretty interesting ones.

And you can imagine the people that are drafting in November and December, they're probably pretty go-hard fantasy baseball players. So I would imagine, at least early on, the people over at the NFBC, these are probably some of the best fantasy baseball minds, and it's just interesting to see the way things are flowing right now back and forth. So we will get into all of that. I want to welcome back anyone who's rejoining us after the fantasy football season.

And I see there's already a comment here on YouTube from Victor Garcia with fantasy football over. Now it's time to shift to fantasy baseball. So I imagine. It's not over completely. I want to point out. I actually have a championship on the line. Depending people that sit on the podcast, you'll already know the outcome. But we're live streaming before the Monday night football game.

And my entire championship is on the line in this game. We need Josh Allen to like not go off. That's all that we need, Frank. Don't go off, please. But then, yes, it is baseball time. I am sorry because I have one league that's up in the air right now. I need 15 plus points from Stefan Diggs. So we'll see what happens there.

Maybe an end-around? Maybe a little end-around? 50-yard end-round touchdown. There you go. I'll take it anyway. I can get it. Let's jump in and here again is what we are doing. We're comparing way too early NFBC ADP.

November and December, we're using draft champions ADP. That is their 15-team 5-by-5 draft and hold roto format. There's a whole bunch of different types of formats over at the NFBC. There's 12 team leagues, there's 15 teamers, there's points leagues. But I think the best ADP, at least early on, is this format. They're draft champions, draft and hold formats. It's 50 rounds, 15 teams, so it goes really, really deep, gives us an idea of some of those players going later on as well.

We'll start with the biggest risers inside of the top 100, the biggest movers here. And the biggest riser so far is Ryssel Iglesias. And I think this one makes sense. Kenley Jansen signs away to the Boston Red Sox. So now we have a little bit more clarity. on Riceley Glacius being the supposed closer for the Atlanta Braves. He has gone from pick 82 in November to pick 59 here in December.

He's going just ahead of the mountain, Felix Batista, and Ryan Helsley. Welsh, do you agree with that early ADP ranking for Riceley-Glaclius? You know, it's moving up a little more than I want to, but what I will say is I agree with wanting to target Reiselaglacus. That is somebody that I definitely want to get, you know, interesting if you go and look at some of the early projections on steamer, it's not updated on Rice O'Glaeus. He's still projected at 15 saves. But just, you know, you want to take a look at the entire process. Kinley Jansen on, or actually, you know what? I'm looking at leaders. I realize I'm just looking

at leaders. So actually, let's take a look at this together because I was looking. And this is also one of the points. Last year, Kenley Jansen, 41 saves. You know, 41 saves is going to do something. There's a lot of save opportunities in Atlanta. There's going to be a lot of win opportunities. And that's why the end of the day, you just want the lockdown closer for that spot and that team. And that's exactly what I'm looking for. Like Felix Patista on an Orioles team at a cost of like, I know you really like him and I think his stuff is really good. But those aren't the type of closers that I'm usually targeting. I'm not targeting closers on even, you know, sub type of teams.

Like I want like I want deals. I want values and I want good. Kind of like the thing we just talked about as stupid as it is the other day where, It's like, hey, man, you know, getting pitchers in mid-rounds that are on good teams is just a better opportunity. Like Rob Silver said, for wins, the same opportunity is going to exist out there for closers. And Ryssela Iglesias looks like he is one of 11 total closers projected over 30 on steamer. And interestingly enough, Batista is not one of those. Who did you say the other one was?

Did you say it was Helsley? Yeah, Ryan Helsley. Yeah, and I really like Ryan Helsley in there too. I probably, if you were, you know, gun to my head, I'm probably wanting the chief. option of Reisel Eglacius or Ryan Helsley, especially if Felix Batista is going before them. Yeah, so I think Helsley, I could pull it up real quick, but I think he's going four picks after Riceley-Glacius. So you're basically, if you want to take a closure in that range, you have to make the decision. Do you want, which one of those two do you want? So Eglacius is at 59, and

Helsley is at 67. So actually eight, eight spots apart right now. I think, I agree with this move. I think it's fine. Again, great team. Eglacius is proven. He has four seasons with 28 plus saves. When he came over to the Braves last year, he was amazing. 0.34 ERA. He allowed just one earned run over 26 and a third and he's pitched. I think this is the range that I'm going to want to shop in too. It's, I don't know that I want to use one of the top three or four round picks on a closer, but once we get into rounds five, six, seven and I could get one of those lockdown guys. That is where I'm looking to shop for saves. That's what I was going to ask you is like what your level is going to be because we know, I guess it's always kind of there. But like last year, it felt

a lot more public and a lot more in our faces of, hey, listen, if you are going to get a closer, which by the way, last year's problem was there was so much uncertainty at the closure position. There was just, we, what was there? Like eight, nine closers that you really felt comfortable about. And then maybe only 13 or 14 that had a lockdown situation, because you got a lot of more committees that are going on that you had to pay a bigger price more than ever. And I kind of went into it. You couldn't afford to lose those runs.

But, you know, is the fourth and fifth round? Like, you are going to make the commitment to that? because I don't want to make the commitment in the top three rounds. I also don't want to get too lost because, especially if you're playing like a 15-team roto or something like that, if you're on the wrong side of a closer run, you're going to be in real, real big trouble. So do you think it's imperative, let's take points leagues out of it?

Do you think it's imperative in head-to-head-in-roto for people to not leave the fifth round without a closer? So the range that I, as far as I'll go, is Kenley Jansen, who's in December when I pick 80. and he probably signed in mid-December, so that's probably even higher. He's the cutoff for me. So let's just say he's a sixth-round pick. I probably need to use either my fifth or sixth-round pick on a closer.

What is he as far as closers go on that market? Because you've got Edwin, Clase, Hayter, Hendrix, Romano. There's five. Presley, Devin, William, 6, 7, Patista, 8. I'm looking at November plus draft champion, so it's 8. Helsey's 9. Iglesias is 10. Kinley's 11. So does that sound right? Yeah. Yeah. So you get one of those back end top 12 closers.

Presley goes at pick 50. So early start of the fifth round. And then you get into that whole group that we just talked about with Batista and Helsley and Reisley-Glacius. So really that group of five, that seems like probably the range that I want to live. Well, and if you can stomach it, if you can stomach this, if you have close to a wheel pick and you can just lock down two of those, you're in a really good spot. I mean, look at that. That's 11, you know, in that, really good territory. I'm not sure the investment will be worth it. You know, you have to figure out in your own leagues. But if you can lock down a Helsley and an Iglesias or Helsley and Kenley Jansen, it's not horrible. That's not a bad spot. Let's take a look at some outfielders that are moving up

right now, all inside of the top 100, all very talented guys, and they provide very different skill sets. So Luis Robert has moved up, and it won't sound like that much. But inside of the top 100, if you move seven or eight spots, that's almost an entire round. So it actually is quite a bit. Luis Robert from pick 45 to 38, Kyle Swarber from pick 65 to 58, and then Brian Reynolds from pick 98 to 90. So we're looking at a fourth round pick, a fifth round pick, and an eighth round pick. Welsh, which one of these prices do you like most? Robert, Schwerber, Brian Reynolds.

Okay, run by me one more time. Give me the player in the round. So it's Luis Robert at pick 38. So early fourth round, Kyle Swarber at pick 58, which is late fifth round. and Brian Reynolds at pick 90, which is the middle of the eighth round. Oh, man, between all of those. All right.

This is kind of two answers. I think the like, my heart tells me Louise Robert, because I am a believer in Luis Robert getting back to his norm. 85th percentile, nice bright red on baseball savant of expected batting average.

Really, the only thing that he struggles with is like his walk chase rate, you know, whiff rate, all those kind of like intertwine with each other. But, you know, X-Lug 80%.

percentile, 99 percentile max exit velocity. Projections are not through the roof, 24 homers, 13 stolen bases this year and a 283 batting average, but, you know, still 83 RBI. You're in there. So my heart tells me, as actually Doug in our chat just wrote, like, buy the dip. I want to buy the dip on Louise Robert. But pulling the Scott White out of me, the best value is probably the cheapest of these guys. And Brian Reynolds is very safe.

and something I think it's very interesting. If we're talking about what's the reason behind these, Robert actually has, I think, like a relatively quantifiable reason. Like he's missing time, you know, and he's this over talented player that keeps missing time, get him back in, you know, he can show back up. Brian Reynolds, I actually think this bump is kind of an anticipation of a trade. I think because of the trade request, he's requested and most likely the team is going to acquiesce at some point once the, you know, once the rosters kind of get set,

maybe closer to February and spring training, that I think they're starting to buy a little bit of that dip if he were to make a move. And then all this would be, he comes the, you know, two, three, four, even five hitter on a much better team that brings him on. Then you're looking at the possibility of, okay, this is a high batting average player,

doesn't steal much, 20 plus homers. But if you put guys around him that, you know, get on base, he might be able to boost up maybe a 10 to 15, percentile jump and runs an RBI, then what if you're looking at a 2,500, $2, $2.80 with minimal stolen bases? That's a second round player. So I buy into the contact skills of Brian Reynolds. I don't buy into the Pittsburgh Pirates, but where he's going, I said one of my resolutions, I do not want to get screwed without fielders. And it gets away from you super, super quick. So I want to buy the dip of Robert, but I think the answer here

to really keep an eye on as these are moving is Brian Reynolds. Because if he were to go to, let's say, the Padres, that would go up. I mean, it's not the best environment necessarily. But you know what I'm saying? He goes, the Yankees, something like that. That's going to go from the 90s up into the 60s. Anywhere but the pirates. I mean, if we're being completely honest, right?

Like, he moves somewhere. The only team I'll say, and they've kind of been rumored to be in on him too, is the Miami Marlins, which obviously that would not be great for his value. frankly, I don't really know why they would go out and trade for him. But yeah, someone like the Padres, the Yankees, the Blue Jays, if they want to get another there. Cardinals? Not that they need it. Not that they need it. But you know, the Cardinal, teams like that, like putting him in a situation like that, I think would get everybody pretty excited.

And he's just, it's just like so much cheaper than those other guys. Schwerber comes with some of the warts of the batting average struggles. Luis Robert as much as I worry, I'm going to put this out here, and I hate saying this, I worry about Luis Robert becoming the outfield Carlos Correa. And what I mean by that is a player that every single year, we are just building our hopes on what he can do that never returns the value. And that was Carlos Correa up until now. Everybody's over Carlos Correa now, even the Mets, apparently. But like, he was always like I could never live up to it. I'm worried Louise Robert could be that. And if you look at the numbers that, even the projections on Brian Reynolds right now, 24 homer, seven stolen bases, 266, 9082. Put

him on a better team even at a 266 batting average. I mean, if you could get close to 30 with 100, 100, this is second round stuff. Yeah, and I love Louise Robert. I loved him last year. To be honest, he hurt me, man. I need a little bit more time. I've got to look into him. He hasn't been able to stay healthy. He has not played more than 98 games yet at the major league level. He struggled with injuries in the minors as well. This is like a big, strong lumbering dude. And we've seen that with other players with that build. You know, Aaron, Judge Stanton, some of these guys, they just can't stay healthy because they're like too big, too jacked for their own good. So I kind of worry about that when it comes to Luis Robert.

I think Kyle Swarber is actually the answer for me. I think he's just totally fine. I know the batting average was abysmal last year, but getting rid of the shift, I think that's going to help the batting average. You know, maybe he gets 240, 250, something like that. 46 home runs, second most in all of baseball last year. And he stole 10 bases out of nowhere. Like, I'm not expecting that, but he could chip in 5 to 7.

I think they're all fine values, but I think the one that I would target is actually Kyle Swarber. It's kind of like a Goldilocks situation. See, it's like I would have said too hot, Kyle Schwerber, too cold, Luis Robert, but just right, Brian Reynolds, you have the flip there. And to your credit, if Schwerper's back to leading off and Trey Turner is hitting three for that team, let's say, if he can get, if he can just get on base and even if he's walking a little bit more, getting him into scoring position with Trey Turner coming up, that's not a bad spot for more runs and maybe more stolen base opportunities simply because they're trying to, not manufacture, but a little bit more manufacturing without Bryce Harper for many months.

I think even if Tray Turner leads off and Kyle Schwerber bat's second, I think Schwerber is a perfectly fine two-hitter because obviously great eye at the plate, advance the runner, get on base. He's got some pop. So if Turner gets on base, you know, instead of a solo homer, we get a two-run homer, I think it totally makes sense. So either way, if he's one, he's two, I think the value's going to be great. You don't have any issue spending that capital, though, on that type of batting average,

to the rest of the counting stats kind of just negate for you? Yeah, I mean, I get it. You probably your first two, if you use take two hitters in the first two rounds, you probably need a bit of a batting average buffer in there. But I also think it's going to be back on the rise too, right? Like 218 is just a clear outlier for him. I think he's probably going to get back up to like 240. Maybe he could push 250 without this, without the shift. So that's that's the hope for Kyle Swarber.

Wow, that's a really good point. The shift is a really good point in what that should have looked. I should have looked at this up beforehand, what those shifted numbers were. But projections on Kyle Schwabber this year do have a bump. Steam are only up to 226 because technically three seasons, even though 2020 is kind of mixed, only one over 220. And since his entire career,

he's only hit over 250 twice. So yeah, he's kind of an anomaly. He's a little bit of an anomaly in there, but the counting stats are absurd. It's a really interesting group in there because, like, I think you can see Reynolds.

I think you can kind of see the logic on Robert. I'm not sure. know where the logic is on Schwerber, except people are just like, maybe to your point, it's just right, just like, I just got to get them. You know, they're just like, I got to have Kyle Schwerver. There's no really significant reason outside of that dominant power stat is so important to my build. To your credit, what you said on our New Year's Resolution episode, I think other people are starting to also figure out that outfield is bad and they want to get some reliable options. And that's why these names are starting to slowly move up inside of the top 100. I think that's going to

happen actually, you know, once we get into like 100 to 200 as well. I'll feel there's just going to continue to move up. There is one starting pitcher that I wanted to point out here. Christian Javier has moved up seven spots, which again, it doesn't sound like a lot, but from 77 to 70, now moving ahead of names like Max Fried and Zach Allen. This is a pretty big price tag for Christian Javier, but it might make sense. Last year, he only threw 148 and two-thirds innings. He still finished 54th overall in Roto.

That's how ridiculous he was. 2.54 ERA, 0.95 whip. Swinging strike rate is ridiculous. He pitches on a good team. The wins should be there. Hopefully, first full season in a rotation, they kind of let him go a little bit, you know, give us quality starts a little bit more.

That should lead to more wins. My initial thought here, Welsh, was that this is maybe too aggressive on Christian Javier, but man, the skills are just so good. I think it makes sense. Yeah, also, he's just one of those guys that like, you know, ERA, if you just want to expect it, ERA, 254 ERA with an XERA of 243.

I mean, it's lower. It's a lower expected. His ex-fip was like three and a half, which is still totally fine and a 314 Sierra. Those are phenomenal numbers with great strikeout numbers, almost 12, 11.7K per 9. The walks dropped a bit from the previous year. You hope there's going to be some maturation on those dropping a bit more. You know, in a funny number, it's not really a, it's not one that you can count on like long term, but it's something you can look at for anomalies.

a lot of people will look at like babbip with hitters and stuff and be like, oh, you know, it's down. It's bad luck. It's up. It's, you know, too much good luck. Where left on base percentage, when you see that, you see, and you see guys that are in like, you know, like 94% left on base percentage and a pitcher's having a really good year. And you can correlate with that with a few other things. You can go, wow, there is a little bit of a luck factor that Javier has been really consistent. And it's kind of been like in the mid 80s of left on base, which is a solid number. He's just maintaining. And it comes back to that quintessential thing we talked about. before of the wins. And like, I like Zach Gallen.

I think Zach Gallen is an insane talent where if you were to go put him on, let's say, the Astros, he might be a top 10 pitcher overall is it's Zach Gallin, who I think is maybe a little bit more talented versus Christian Javier, who's got bigger strikeout numbers and on a better team. And he's, it's almost a shoe win for like 12 or 13 wins for Javier with boosted

inning. So I get it. I see why he's kind of the, he's the darling of that pack to get. And I see why he's moving up. Yeah, and again, this ADP, pick 70, if you're playing in a 12-team league, sixth round, you know, if you get Javier as your SP2, I think that's totally fine. And then you could even double down in round seven or eight and just pick up another SP3.

But, you know, take a Scherzer or a Verlander or Zach Wheeler in round three or four. And then someone like Javier is your two, I think that's totally fine. So you want to get crazy with that. I was thinking about maybe it's like you know, two hitters, one pitcher, two closers, another hitter, probably an outfielder at least, and then you could jump in maybe on Javier. That might not be a bad build of two closers, two pitchers, and then make sure you get at least one of those outfielders.

You've already got three hitters with that build. I would be pretty happy with, like you said, like a Wheeler and a Christian Javier starting. All right, let's take a look at some of the fallers inside of the top 100, starting inside of the top 100 and then falling out. Bryce Harper, the biggest follower. I think obviously this makes sense. In November, his ADP was 70.

I think some things were still kind of up in the air. We're trying to figure it out. In December, the ADP for Bryce Harper is 150. I think he's probably going to fall somewhere in the middle there. 150 seems a little bit too late, especially in leagues where you have an IL spot. In the NFBC, you don't have an IL spot. So if you can afford to stash him in one of those spots,

I think somewhere around 120-ish, I think that's probably where we're going to land on Bryce Harper. Walsh, any thoughts there on him? Yeah, I'm torn on him. Like, I got to say he's probably a general overall. all not going to do it this year for me. Like that's not going to be my bag. And I think we've talked about this.

I was trying to look too. Man, I even did since December 15th on draft champions. And it's no different. It's like, I was even trying to like hone in to say, yeah, maybe someone tried to sneak around and do something different. It's not. I think he's just got the two things going against him. One is obviously the time missed.

But the other one is almost what I wanted to ask you is that you tilt thing. I really think that's a detriment to some degree. if he were full go and he was going to start from day one I know it might only be a couple spots but like what down tick would you give him only qualifying at util I think he be a second round player would he oh you mean if he was completely healthy yeah he's completely healthy but he's util only and let's say also let's go with it that he won't he won't play

outfield they're like he's not going to play outfield all year but he's going to play all year but he's util only Bryce Harper I think he would be a borderline first round pick, like one two turn. And if he was outfield eligible, he would probably get bumped up like three to four spots, like midfirst. And I agree with that. I'm, boy, I mean, it's picking it hairs, but maybe I'm, I don't quite agree with if he were util only with no ability to play off.

And the reason I'm bringing it up is because next year, because this year, it, they really have set the stage for us that he might not get outfield eligibility for the two thousand, two thousand, four season. Because if he misses half the year, they've already said he's going to be a primary D.H. I don't know if he's going to be able to get 20 games. So now next year, you're going to walk into, I know I'm jumping the gun here, but it's an entire season of Utah lonely. It's not the end of the world. We can do it. I think we did it with Jordan Alvarez one year and we do it with Otani and stuff like that. It's just, I don't know. I think it pushes down just a tiny bit. I kind

of think he'd be the middle to back end of the second round, but I don't know, maybe I'm wrong. And for those just kind of jumping back into the fantasy baseball world, Bryce Harper did have Tommy John's surgery back in late November, and he's expected to return, you know, optimistically, mid-June, but I think realistically, probably second half. Like, I don't know that they're going to push him, you know, one month earlier, just, hey, return around the All-Star break, second half, mid-July, something like that. I think that makes sense for Bryce Harper. So if you stash him, obviously, you're going to have to hold on to him for the first, you know,

three or three-and-half months of the season. And especially, I really agree with you on that because the advantage is he's only going to be hitting So he doesn't have to like necessarily work up and defensively get going and stuff like that. But like if he was scheduled to come back like mid-June, if you're like a couple weeks away from the All-Star game, there's just no chance they're going to press it. Just give him more time to rehab. I am almost assured he will be post-all-Star break.

And that, but that's why. Like I know you said it'll be somewhere between 70 and 150, but I don't know. I mean, do you think a U-Till only Bryce Harper is worth the 90th pick, when you only get him in the second half? Is there a format where he's worth? Let's say 100. Let's just round it up.

100 overall. Is he valuable knowing you don't have him until late July in any single format? I probably need two more rounds of value than that. You know, 125, something like that. That's probably when I start to look at it and consider it, realistically at least. A couple other hitters that are falling.

Each of these moved down at least nine spots from November to December. Trevor's story went from pick 66 to 80. Starling Marte went from pick 72 to 81, and then Tim Anderson went from pick 82 to 92. I think that there are, I guess, slight concerns over each of them. Obviously, Trevor Story, the Red Sox lineup has taken a hit. I don't think they're going to be as good. His first season in Boston was inconsistent, I guess is a way to put it.

He hit 238, 16 homers, 13 steals in 94 games. For Starling Marte, I think there's some concern here over the lineup spot, assuming the Mets signed Carlos Correa. He's also 34 years old, has had trouble staying healthy, and he ran a lot less than he did in 2021. Tim Anderson, I think it all just comes down to health. If you look at his 150 game pace since the start of 2019, you're looking at someone hitting 318, 20 homers, 21 steals.

The problem? He's missed 32% of his game since the start of 2019. That is a massive amount. That's one third of his games, his available games, Tim Anderson has missed. Whilst you agree with the drop on all three of these, and is there one that you are particularly looking at, maybe buying the dip here?

Yeah, so the, you know, the Starling Marte one is kind of standing out to me because the Trevor's story, I think, is twofold. He just massively underperformed except for what was it like 13 days, like 11 days, like he had like whatever it was, you know, that insane little run where he was hitting all those homers, but he massively underperformed with a offense that looks weaker, much weaker with Zander Bogarts out, and they also just making no move. So I guess I kind of get that and I'm with it. I don't have a ton of interest, though.

You can talk yourself into maybe him reestablishing some more position eligibility. The Tim Anderson one I can get with, though. I think that position is really, really deep. He just, since 2018 was the last time he played 150 games, which is like wild to think about. The Sterling Marte one I'm sitting on, and I guess I'm just not 100% understanding. I do see roster resources put him down to six, which is going to make a whole lot of sense. But I mean, I don't know, are we locked that Brandon Nimmo is going to be the lead off hitter for this team? I think they would switch back and forth. So I think this is like, I don't know,

my mind, this is a little preemptive because this is a guy, you know, this year 16 homers, 18 stolen bases in 118 games. He's obviously getting a little bit older, but his game continues to translate. He's hit over 280 for four straight years and hitting 292 this past year. And the projection game is still with it. They're actually projecting a batting average. And again, I'm using steamer because it's only one that's really out there right now, but they all have, they're all a variance of each other. You know, the variance is very small between them. But like, they're projecting him at 267, and I just told you he has not bat under 280

since, uh, 2018. And guess what? He's bat under two, he's, he's hit 267 or less only once in his whole career and it was his rookie year. So that's kind of anomaly. They're still giving him 16 homers and 23 stolen bases for a guy that is now being pushed closer to top 100. So I don't know.

I'm not sure Brandon Nimmo is locked into that. I think Strathargette gets there. I think it's a little preemptive, especially with the push for stolen bases and what looks like a pretty dang good lineup, especially if Carlos Correa actually does someday sign. This is now technically a 2022 and 2022 issue with Carlos Correa. We get to say that, Frank.

But I think the Marte one kind of stands out to me. Yeah, I think there's a chance that Stalling Marte could hit two in this lineup too. They could leave Nimmo at leadoff and put Carlos Correa down. down at five, I think that would be totally fine. Nimmo, Marte, you get the switch hitter with Francisco Lindor, you get Pete Alonzo, then Carlos Correa, and then another lefty and Jeff McNeil. I think that lineup construction makes a lot of sense as well. Either way, I like the value on Starling Marte.

Maybe I'm just- Yeah, we agree then. I'm just buying in because I've seen his name being like the second or third round for so many years. But again, everything you pointed out, the batting average is still good, power and speed is still there, plays for one of the best lineups in baseball. He's going to miss time. But, you know, I think when he's healthy, he's, he's a 2020 candidate. So I like Marte. In fact, I kind of like all these. Tim Anderson's probably the hardest one to defend just because that position is so deep. So you just don't really need to go out of your way to get him. But Trevor Story has second base eligibility. Yeah. And his 150 game pace last year, 25 homers, 20 steals. That's still super valuable in a categories league. So story, even that, I could get behind that if he's going to pick 82. So I do like Trevor Story. You know, and I know there's something in the chat that's like, you know, NEML is. going to be the lead and he may and they may I mean this is why they brought him in there's an obvious reason for the batting average and everything but you know another interesting construction to when

you said Carlos Correa could be five is what if you lead off Marte and hit Jeff McNeil too I mean how about the batting champion hitting two in between these guys I think that would not I mean that's and that's also the unique thing I want to point out that's kind of my point here they're really talented with a lot of players that are interchangeable you have three guys even if you want to call Pita Lanz or the quintessential number four hitter the Duke can hit three. Lindorke can hit three. Karek could hit three. And then you've got three other guys that are perfect for the one and two spot between Marte, Nemo, and Jeff McNeil, I think they can really mess and move around the lineup. So if the entire argument is like, well, he's going to move

down to like six, I think that's, I don't know, I don't know that's a complete argument, especially for the stat and categories of good. If you think he's going to completely fall off, which isn't necessarily the case, but you think this is now the year because it's be like 34 or something. Okay, I buy that a little bit more than I would buy like lineup position is why he should start significantly moving down. Yeah, I've done three drafts that I'm going to play out over at the NFBC. I have Starling Marte in all three. Three for three. So yeah, I don't know, maybe I'm just defending the big because I've made it so many times already, but either way, I do like the value there on Starling Marte. Let's take a quick

break. Before we do, we are closing in on a milestone. 3,000 Apple podcast ratings would be awesome if you could help us out. We just crossed 2,900. So if you enjoyed the pod all year long in 2022, looking forward to it in 2023, please leave five stars and drop a review on Apple. If you listen on Spotify, you could do the same thing. I don't know if you could leave a review there, but you can leave a rating. So five stars on Apple or Spotify would be much appreciated. Let's take a break.

We'll be back right after this. All right, let's move into the biggest ADP movers between Picks 100 and 200. Again, this is comparing November NFBC ADP to December NFC ADP. These are the ones that move the most from trades and or signings. Cody Bellinger went from 193 to 180. Mitch Hanager from 187 to 171. Sean Murphy from 147 to 123. William Contreras from 142 to 129.

And Jose Abraeu signing with the Astros going from pick 127 to 98. Welsh, any of these five that you are looking to buy high on here while they're on the rise? Ooh, I love Jose Abraeu. I love the move for Jose Abraeu. That is going to be. me all day long if I can possibly do it. I don't love the jump, but, you know, I was kind of marking this in the early,

early stages with where he could go. And this is exactly what I said. I'm like, he could jump into the top 100 if he found a destination that really worked. And Houston was one of the best landing spots you could possibly get. You know, batting average is still there. Power numbers, not quite warranted to be as low.

I mean, you could definitely, you can make cases that those are going to boost up. And he is in an incredible lineup for opportunities left and right. So this one is an easy, easy buy for me. None of the others,

I think it's hilarious though. It's so funny that it's like all of these big risers are just about the signings. Like, oh, now they got a team and I'm good. I guess sometimes, I guess to Jose Brayu's case where like if he were to go to Seattle,

maybe that doesn't get people as ramped up or anything like that. Maybe it's kind of lateral to the white talks or something and you're making a bigger case for Houston. But I don't know. I don't like when these guys get into. free agency, I think this is the way you take advantage of early NFBC stuff, is just having a projectable mind to the destinations that these teams can go. And what is really the floor? You know, does Cody Bellinger really need to move from 193 and then go up a full round because

he went to Chicago? I don't know. It's a good destination. But like, if you're a, if you bought into Cody Bellinger, you don't need him to go to Chicago to buy into, or inverse. If you're like, I'm out, you don't need Chicago to be the thing that pulls you back in like any of these others. And Treyrhus goes into an awesome destination. If I'm not giving you a brayu, I'd say I actually kind of dig that one a little bit more, especially if I'm in a two-catcher league, probably not crazy interested in single catcher leagues. But I'm still pretty interested in him. But this is like clear-cut Jose Abraeu.

He had some really interesting slug numbers that were still really high. And if I'm remembering this correctly, there's something I was writing up. When you go and do ballpark factors to home runs based on the places you play, it was up across the board. for Abraeu. But I think it was in Cincinnati was one where he had 28 homers he would have hit if he was with Cincinnati. Cincinnati is obviously a boost. But it's also just showing like, yes, those numbers are tapering down. He hit some bad luck, but there's still some underlying things that are pushing that he can be a mid-20s type of homerine guy and then just go put him in one of the best lineups in baseball. So that's why you get excited about him. And I think you'd probably agree

with that. Yeah, absolutely. In on Jose Abraeu. I brought this up to you before. Vini Paso Quantino going at pick 94. I think that's going to be a very interesting debate all off season long. You've got the young buck, the up and comer. Lots to be excited about with Vinny Pasquantino. And then Jose Ibrahim, who is this, you know, old Wiley veteran. And he's been very solid for fantasy for a long time and now joining one of the best lineups in baseball. If he played all of his games from 2022 in Houston, he would have hit 22 home runs, according to stat cast. And I believe that number was just 15 overall last year. Yep, that's a big jump.

Yeah, 15. Did you look at my Cincinnati one too? Do you have that? I'm going to look it up if you don't. Confirm with me, because I wrote this in the, isn't it 28? Cincinnati is always crazy because I think it's very clearly the best home run ballpark. It is 28. Yeah, it's 28.

That's absurd. I mean, Diamondbacks would have been 24. Again, that's not like this be all, end all or anything like that. But I mean, dude, you look at the top half of his baseball savant page. It is 96%tile ex-Waba, 98%tile, expected batting average. 92% expected slugging, hard hit percentage was 97%.

The homers just didn't go. They just did not go. And it kind of went a little bit by the wayside for him. There's a homer upside when you put him in an incredible lineup. This is something, take Brian Reynolds. Put Brian Reynolds in Houston. That, what, jump into the 90s or 90s or wherever it's going? He'd bump him up into the 70s or 60s or something like that.

Almost 10 stolen bases. high 20 homers, probably 100, this is exactly one of those spots. And now you get to do it with, you know, a guy that, yes, he's getting older, but he always hits for a high batting average. And you can just dream on the ballpark factors working in his favor of, like you said,

was it a seven home run increase if he had hit all his games in Houston? If you could buy five more homers on him, now you're in the 20s, now we're talking about a valuable fantasy first baseman, at least with the rest of the counting stats with him. 20 is not like what you want out of our first basement, of course. Yeah, I think he's going to hit, you know, 270 plus with 20 to 25 home runs, but really good counting stats, too.

I think that's an underrated part. Runs, you know, obviously he's a slower guy. I don't know that he's going to score 100 plus. Maybe he gives you, you know, 80 plus runs. But the RBI, we've seen, since joining Major League Baseball, he's been one of the best RBI producers, Jose Brayu. So he can legitimately, you know, drive in 100, 110 plus. It would not surprise me one bit.

Last point on this group, Sean Murphy and William Petreras. I actually agree with the move wholeheartedly. William Contreras to Milwaukee where now he's going to be the everyday catcher. We kind of had some question marks about what would his playing time look like in Atlanta. Sean Murphy now goes to Atlanta. He will be the number one catcher.

They locked him down. They gave him a five or six year extension. He's going to be the main starter. Likely loses out on some playing time from last year because he actually led all catchers and plate appearances with the Oakland A's. Not going to do that again with the Atlanta Braves. But obviously, whatever he loses in volume,

he'll make up on a per at that, basis because Atlanta's so much better than Oakland. A few other interesting risers in this range between 100 and 200. Just wanted to get your thoughts on these. I tried to figure out why they were on the rise. And let's start with MJ Melendez. He went from 114 to 103. I think the shift ban is something that helps MJ Melendez.

And I think the more research people do this offseason, they'll realize that M.J. Melendez got a little bit unlucky last year. And I think he's going to be a lot better moving forward. he was really good against lefties. His strikeout rate wasn't that bad. He hits the ball extremely hard. And he's going to play more than other catchers because he's going to be in the outfield.

He's going to DH a little bit. So I think people are just starting to figure out how good he might be. A few of their names here as well. Jake McCarthy from 129 to 116. Clay Holmes from 130 to 115. Andres Munoz from 175 to 151. And then an interesting one,

which we brought up last week, Chris Sale, from 178 to 159. Do you agree with the rise in ADP for each of these five? Yeah, I think for the most part, MJ Melendez, I also want to point out that NFPC, two catcher formats, I think, are going to press this. So that's also why that number is so high. But I wouldn't, if I'm listening, I wouldn't focus on the number. I just focus on the rise and that's getting people excited. I think you nailed it.

I think it's a left-handed splits that I think are working in his favor. Projections are also pretty favorable, 20-plus homers. And you said it, anytime you can, this kind of cheat-coats. It's a little less nowadays because so many players are doing it. But you get a player that can play outside of his position and qualify a catcher. It's something you have to pay attention to. So that's obviously his. McCarthy, I think it's just people buying into the stolen bases and seeing the numbers pop up.

Clay Holmes and Munez, I'm a Munoz guy. I know there's a Battle of Seawalt Munoz. I'm betting on Andres Munoz right now. So I see why that. And Clay Holmes, I thought Clay Holmes in the very early drafts was just kind of weird that people weren't anticipating like Roles is not going to come back to that team.

So I don't really know what was going on with everybody. So Clay Holmes is kind of the bet. Obviously, the concern would be they bring someone else. And the Chris Sale one, again, I think I agree with all these, but I don't, does everyone like just like wake up and like realize he's going to pitch again this year? I think there's still all the same concern. So injury, you don't know when he's going to blow something out or break something or slip on something or punch something.

He's on a not great team. I think wins are a little bit in question. But I don't think the cost is that bad. So yeah, I think these all make sense. I think this is just as people do more drafts, more data is out there and builds and roster construction. What I think is unique about all of these players specifically is I think these are great core building blocks to your fantasy team because they don't cost crazy amounts.

You know, Clay, when you miss out all those closures, we talked about, how about getting the closer with the Yankees? Munoz going past 150 for the Seattle Mariners. If he closes, that's great. McCarthy, late steals. Melinda is kind of a sneaky, multi-position eligible. And Chris Sale always has that top 20 potential upside. So I think these all share the same core building block piece for fantasy once you get out the top 100.

And I could see why everybody would want them. Three hitters that have moved down 20 plus spots from November to December 80p. Jorge Mateo from 179 to 201. Josh Rojas from 170 to 194. Brian Hayes from 155 to 176. And again, I think varying concerns for each of them. Jorge Mateo, Rossor Resource currently has on the bench. I don't know if that will last.

They have Ramon Arias at third base. They have Gunner at shortstop. They have Adam Frazier at second. Josh Rojas. I guess we can talk about it now. The Diamondback signed Evan Longoria to a one-year deal. So maybe there's like a platoon situation at third base or Longoria is just going to DH, whatever it might be.

And then Kebrien Hayes, I think he was probably just being a little bit overvalued early on in November. And now this is just kind of a correction here in December for Cabrion Hayes. What do you think about those three dropping 20 plus spots? Yeah, I think you kind of nailed it on Hayes. I mean, I think when you would see like 20 stolen bases out of position, you know, at a third base position where you wouldn't typically get them. I think that's kind of the excitement.

But I think as people get more comfortable, again, in a, not a same, well, let me look at the range. Where was Key Brian Hayes? Yeah, it's kind of in this generalish range. But where people are not taking Key Brian Hayes now, they're pushing up to take McCarthy. My point to that was there's other spots that you can find those stolen bases that I think people are becoming comfortable with instead of worrying about Kibrian Hayes. The Mateo one is interesting

because there's one other factor in there that there's rumors of them being open to trading him and moving on from Jorge Mateo. And I think that if he were to go into a super utility role, I think that would concern a lot of people. So there's no way in my mind that Adam Frazier holds that job down over Jorge Mateo. Adam Frazier is bad.

Like offensively is Nick Ahmed bad. defensively maybe he's fine and that might be some of those concerns. I cannot imagine that Adam Fraser keeps Jorge Mateo completely off of there. So I wouldn't really worry about that and I wouldn't let that go. But I'm not a big Jorge Mateo guy. Counting stats are fun.

Albatrosses in batting average worry me a little bit because I think you're more susceptible to bigger, colder streaks, which I don't really want. So he's not mine. And currently the roster resource has Rojas at third with Evan Longoria D-Hing. I don't think that's, necessarily going to be the case because they're making a case for Nick Ahmed holding this down.

I think it's going to be this. I think the Diamondbacks are going to play super utility across the board. I think people need to be prepared for a little bit. Even Corbyn Carroll going to have a day off. McCarthy over here. Paven Smith is going to really piss people off, I think this year. You're going to have Rojas, Nick Ahmed, Longoria. They're all going to be switching around. Getting consistent starters every single day with the Diamondbacks might be a little tough where I think so many of them can play a super utility role. So I don't think you should worry about that with Rojas. They love this guy. He's a table setting type of player who stole a bunch of bases and can play a lot of

positions. It's just you might not get them every single day, which might be kind of annoying. So I don't know. I think Rojas won. I get why people are doing it. I don't think it's warranted. The Mateo one and Key Brian Hayes make a little bit more sense to me. All right.

Four pitchers who moved down 10 spots between 100 and 200 from November to December. Joe Ryan from 137 to 147, Pablo Lopez from 156 to 169, Tony Gonsland from 166 to 183, Lance McCullors from 185 to 196. And Welsh, I would group these in two different buckets, inconsistency and injury related. Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez,

I think that there's talent with each of them. I also think that they're really inconsistent. I was looking through Joe Ryan's game log. on any given day he can go out seven shut out with ten strikeouts he can also go three innings and give up five earned runs two or three homers and just completely ruin your ratios

Pablo Lopez we saw it first half second half he could go through stretches where he's awesome he goes through stretches where he's not awesome Tony Gonselin had a strained right forearm in late August Lance McCullors we know his injury concerns are well documented so two different buckets Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez inconsistent

Tony Gonsland and McCullors injured related and I think maybe as people start to do more research throughout the off season, they're kind of realizing that with each of these four pitchers. That's a really good way to say it because I think that's it. Because my first reaction is kind of like, why? Like, what's the thing? But I think it's that.

I think it's people doing their research. I think it's people kind of digging in a little bit deeper. Paulo Lopez, and forgive me if this is on the sheet and I'm monopolizing it. But there was a rumor I saw it today. I think Craig Mish was talking about it and somebody else, I'm forgetting their name to attribute, but that the, that the Marlins are still talking with the Red Sox about a trade. And Tristan Kossis is the name that's being thrown around.

And Red Sox fans are freaking out. Well, what do you think it's going to cost for the Marlins to get a Tristan? It's going to cost to Pablo Lopez 100%. And he's been the guy that has been a little bit of a question mark, kind of the whole way with just such a horrid second half if you're breaking it down. So I think there's that. But all these guys, I guess it is probably like a little bit more digging. And Tony Gonson, like, historically had an insane, he had a first half and a first, I guess, 18 starts or whatever it was that seemed like it was not sustainable.

I mean, he at one point had like a two run differential between like ERA and X FIPP and expected ERA. And, but he held. He only had a couple bumpy starts. So some of these I just don't quite understand like why it would be significant now outside of a little bit more digging. McCuller's, you know, literally the only thing is just like he never plays. So I think it's a weird. It's a weird list here, but it is people probably doing a little bit more research. Pablo Lopez, by the way, if he does get traded from Miami, normally, I think our reaction

would be, okay, he's going to a good team. So run support and those types of things should help him as a starting pitcher. In his career, he has a 3.45 ERA at home, 4.54 on the road. I don't know that a trade and getting away from Marlins Park, which is a good ballpark to pitch in, would actually benefit Pablo Lopez. So, look, if you got this guy in a keeper or dynasty league, I think I would try and flip Pablo Lopez right now. And just don't just trade him for anything.

But, you know, if you can get fair value for them, I think it's something I would look into doing right now. Who would you rather have? Pablo Lopez or Frankie Montas? Your face. Neither. I guess Pablo, I worry a little bit more about Montas with all the injuries that he suffered.

and the shoulder stuff and relying on a pitcher that uses a splitter that much, those guys are just also prone to inconsistency. So I think there's just a little bit more that could go wrong for Frankie Montas, but he is on the much better team right now with the Yankees.

So I think I would lean with Pablo Lopez. How about you? Okay. Yeah, I mean, I'm probably in that same camp. I mean, obviously, the one thing to not break apart with this when we're kind of sitting here and talking so bad about Paulo Lopez,

is he had a good first half. I mean, an under three ERA, 286. Yeah. ERA kept guys right around a 200 batting average, which is pretty solid. Home run numbers were a lot less than in the second half. He just really fell apart in the second half, which is part of the problem. He was pretty inconsistent because it's crazy because it was the March, April, May that held everything. From there on out, he never had an ERA under four.

So I'm not trying to be like, he was really, really good. No, like from June on, he was really not good. and we were still holding out hope. But he did string together a couple really, really good runs and maybe a new spot, you know, with, I don't know, Boston, that's the only thing, though. I don't know if Boston is a great spot that you want him to be. And especially going in that division,

that actually might be worse if we're really being honest about it. But yeah, I think I would go with that. Frankie, I have some concerns with, though something that like mental side always gets to me of imagine being traded and going from like Oakland to the Yankees and like having to adjust to that stadium. I mean, pitchers do have to figure out like the nuances of, you know, new catchers and defenses and how to pitch in a certain place. And you also have a really volatile pitch, like you said, in a splitter, which can be dominant. I mean, maybe the most dominant pitch in baseball when it's on.

So, Frankie actually might have the upside, but I probably play a little bit safer and say Lopez. All right. Let's wrap up here with some news and notes. And we do have a few mailback questions as well. We spoke about it already, but Evan Longoria agreed to a one-year. deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. And Welsh, what do you think of here just in terms of lineup expectation, I guess, with everyone? You kind of touched on it.

Like, there's Pavin Smith, there's Josh Rojas, there's Evan Longoria, Kyle Lewis, who they acquired in the offseason as well. So what are you thinking here with the D-backs? Yeah. So I will say this. I still feel like there's a move to be had for the Diamondbacks. And I wonder if it's going to come out of the outfield. McCartney, right?

I wonder if his name might be Make McMarphy. He might rhyme with that. name or Rake M'Marphy. It might rhyme with that. And that kind of maybe gives us a few answers. But I would say for the most part, I think Evan Longoria is probably going to be like a five hitter for this team. You know, you're probably going to have Christian Walker four, Catele, Marte most likely

hits three and then Longoria comes into five. So I actually think he's going to be in a pretty good RBI spot. The Diamondbacks have also shown to maybe Toro Lavello finally stop being so stringent about not running. and now that they've got guys like Corby Carroll is actually set to be the leadoff hitter for this team, which I think it'll rotate. But either way, whoever you put in there, these are guys that can run. If McCarthy is there, you've got Carol, you've got Rojas who all run that it just might be a few more RBIi opportunities

and people kind of buying into what the Diamondbacks are doing. So I think this is a good spot for Longoria, be able to keep playing third base. There's not going to be a ton of competition at that spot. But what he might do is screw up. Now I'm a little bit more worried about the Alec Thomas thing. I wasn't before, but now you got Lordus Gariel in there. You got Phaven Smith, and I'm seeing less opportunity for Alec Thomas, unless there is one of those trades like I talked about, like Jake McCarthy getting moved for a pitcher. But overall, I think the Longoria, this is probably his best of a spot you could get for Longoria.

Jake McCarthy for Pablo Lopez, who says no, Welsh? I would love that. I will tell you. There's a birdie in an organization that I had that had told me a rumor about, uh, a certain Jake McCarthy going. And the pitcher that they would be acquiring leaves a little to be desired. So maybe that's why a deal isn't going. But hey,

Pablo Lopez for Jake McCarthy wouldn't look too bad. Maybe the ninebacks might have to give like a tiny bit more on top. I take that. Yeah. I think it fills a need for both teams. Then I'm clearly Pablo Lopez. I'll be the biggest Pablo Lopez fan on the planet. Him and Zach Gallen, baby.

Marlins manager, Skip Schumacher confirmed last week that they do plan to play Gene Cigura at third base. I saw some Twitter rumblings, people wondering whether Gene Seguer would play second, and they move jadishism to shortstop. It sounds like as of now the expectation Gene Seguera will play third base for the Miami Marlins. According to John Heyman, the Cubs are in deep contract negotiations with Eric Hosmer. Nothing is done yet. Well, so what do we make of all this?

Because the Cubs were also rumored to be in on Jose Ibrahim, now Eric Hosmer. They have this seemingly stud first base prospect coming up in Matt Mervis. but does it kind of make you feel weird that they keep going after veteran first baseman when they seemingly have Mervis ready to go? No, I don't think it is because I think it's what I had mentioned like when we were sitting hanging in AFL

is I don't think a lot of teams that are trying to be heavy competitive now or just a lot of teams in general are going to throw unproven assets out, I say assets, but unproven players out without trying to maybe buy a little bit of time. And this also, what I see out of this, is what I take out of this,

is I think there are questions that we aren't asking, or maybe we just don't know what the question is, about Matt Mervis. Maybe they have concerns defensively that he can hold it. Maybe he was such a rocket ship into this year that it's not enough of a sample size for their department to be like full buy-in, that we're going to hand the job. We're not going to attempt to bring in another guy.

You also have to think about this with a guy like Hosmer. Osmer's kind of like a lively player. He might help recruit. He might be a guy that's going to have. help bring other players in and buy in. He's probably only playing on a one-year deal. And this team just wants to have wins. And I mean, I don't think Hosmer is that guy, but he probably plays better defensively.

And they are probably asking themselves, you know, what do we need out of this position? Do we need a guy that's going to be a lockdown defensive first baseman to help the other offensive assets? Or do we need an offensive bat to pick up the slack? And maybe this is telling that they're not valuing the offensive pickup. Because clearly, clearly Matt Mervis is an offensive upgrade over Eric Hosmer. but Eric Hossamer might be the team captain defensive player that they want. I just think all of these moves have told us that this team is not sold on Matt Mervis. And pretty like this would have been an interesting guy to watch the ADPs of what he was over this last like two months because he's been slinging around that maybe we shouldn't be as gung ho.

I know we all want to be gung ho about every prospect and every rookie and every who's the next Bobby Witt and who's the next this and that. But like the Cubs have kind of been telling us for two months that they're not sold on this player. maybe it's just competition and maybe that's the weirdness with Eric Cosmer right now. Maybe the deal is like the Cubs want to be able to get out of it if Mervis proves himself. Or maybe they're really just telling us like, hey, Mervis is not a guy we want to throw out as the everyday first baseman come out of spring training. I am someone who does subscribe to having a veteran around to nurture a young player, especially at the same position.

I actually buy into stuff like that. So if they wanted to bring in Eric Hosmer to maybe coach up a Matt Mervis, help him out defensively. They both have left-handed swings and stuff. Just being as, you know, we joke about Eric Hosmer. He's a pretty successful MLB player, you know, like winning a World Series and all that kind of fun stuff, being a big prospect himself.

So I kind of subscribe to theories like that, and I think that would make sense. And Mervis could still be the DH. And, you know, they could shuffle first-based DH between those two. The race made some smaller moves. They acquired outfielder, Eli White from the Rangers, for cash considerations. They also acquired left-handed reliever,

Lucas Lutge from the Yankees for infieler Caleb Durbin and right-handed pitcher Indigo Diaz. Welsh, dreams really do come true because I've got to tell you, when I saw this come through on the timeline over the weekend, I said, wow, it's a New Year's miracle. The Yankees signed Willie Calhoun to a minor league deal. I mean, my heart, my heart just can't take it because anyone who knows me for years, it's just, You have players you just can't quit. And Willie Calhoun is just one of those for me. Look, if he actually gets a chance, his swing in Yankee Stadium, I'm just saying, there's a chance. There's a chance. I remember watching Willie training on a backfield in the Dodgers backfield when he was still a Dodger.

They were trying to get him to still work at second base. And I got to actually be around and talk him a little bit this past year of spring training with the Ranger. I just were always root for that guy. I wish it could be consistent and get it going. And he even said he tweeted out. Like, it's every kid's dream to put on that Yankee uniform and he's proud to be a Yankee. And Frankie Stanful has never been happier. I'm happy for you.

I meant to wear my Rangers hat today and I forgot. So whatever. But the real reason I bought a Rangers hat is because they just acquire all these random players that I liked. Willie Calhoun was one of them. Nate Lowe, I loved when they made that move to. The Yankees also have DeMarcus Evans as a non-raster invite. Former Ranger. Yeah, yeah.

Yeah. I'm pretty happy about these. Other non-roster invites Michael Chavis with the Nationals, Billy McKinney also with the Yankees, and Willie Castro with the twins. Let's wrap up very quickly here with some mailbag questions, and this one's from Big THB. Hello, gentlemen.

I am in a 16-te-team Dynasty League five-by-five head-to-head categories and need some advice. I have solid pitching and could make Jordan Romano expendable in a trade. I'm looking to upgrade in the outfield and want to know what tier of players you think is a reasonable ask in a one-for-one deal, or is it better to stick with my strong pitching rotation and try to upgrade at outfield during the season?

Walsh's right up your alley, obviously, Dynasty League-related question. I think any time you're trying to flip a closer, even an elite-level closer in Dynasty, you just have to be realistic about what you're going to get in return. So just thinking off the top of my head, like a maybe borderline top 20, type outfielder, something like that. And obviously not someone who's

super young or anything. You're probably looking at a top 25-ish outfielder in the prime of his career. Like, Brian Reynolds, does that get it done? I don't know. I think I probably have a brother, Brian Reynolds, but that's a good one. You know what's one that's kind of close to my, and I want to be completely

transparent here. I am a devaluer of closers in dynasty. So if you are going to commit into, so my dynasty ranks, like if I'm in win now, the closers have to bump up. But I'm not going to rank a closer, a lot of closers high just because the redraft market says so. I'm not going to do that in Dynasty because I think that's silly to be crazy,

heavily invested in closers unless you're win now. So you have to adjust. That is my warning label. These things might be, that's my warning label for you on this. But on my Dynasty ranks, a guy that I have in the general range is Christian Yellich. And that might not,

you know, that might be from a win now perspective, you would probably rather have Romano. but Christian Yelich might kind of be in that general space if you're looking at Dynasty. Maybe a Starling Marte would be another one of those because I think Brian Reynolds would be tough, but I actually think your Brian Reynolds one might be like the prime

if you are making them, if you have to sell them on this is a win now move, even if other rankers don't have Romano high, that's just about the type of player I think that you would try to get, but you might have to bump it down a little bit. A few other names here. You just tell me yes or no if you would trade Romano for these outfielders. Ors Springer.

Oh, yes. And like if I'm in Wynn now, yes. What about Sayas Suzuki? I'd want a little bit more. Nick Cassiano's. No. Okay. So that's the range that we're talking about.

Some names there that we're in on, you could do it for, and then some others. And this is not knowing his full case here. He said he's got a plethora of riches, but like, why are you in your dynasty and stuff like that? So like our answers might change if we had a little bit more information.

I do believe on the email sent in the entire roster, but it's just, it's hard to read the entire roster here. So this next one's from Colin. All right. So I'm nervous. I made a big mistake in my deep 16 team 10 keeper league plus three minor leaguers. So 10 keepers plus three minor leaguers. I won the ship in 2021. And then my team tanked last year.

So I made a trade to try and increase my depth. I traded away Carl Sordaun. I received Jazz Chisholm and Byron Buxton. I have Shohei Otani, Shane McClanahan, and Tyler Glassnow as my three keeper starting pitchers, along with Drey Jamison, who is sitting in a minor league spot. The starting pitchers available in the draft are normally trashed, so I feel I may have made a mistake. Welsh, what do you think? Well, I mean, I think Jazz is the number one get out of this, so I don't really think you made a mistake. I am also blindly still passionate about Byron Buckson,

even though it's fools gold at this point. I totally get it. But you get two of those guys. I'm still in. I was going to say, I looked at this the other way and I was like, oh, 16 keepers.

Ooh, you only have those three. It's 10 keepers. I'm in a 10 keeper league. Maybe I go a full split of five and five. Maybe I look at it like that, but I kind of would always still lean towards, and you were saying pitching is kind of trashed in the league.

So maybe that's why I would do it. it, but I would lean a little bit more hitting. I really don't think you made a mistake. Like, maybe you regret it a little bit and you'd rather have Rodon, but I want Jazz Chisholm this year. I think we're coming back. And on top of it, you get Byron Buxton. So I wouldn't beat yourself up.

You have a pretty dang good rotation of three guys. Maybe you can make it up somewhere else, but I don't know. I wouldn't be kicking myself. What are you? Yeah, I wouldn't either. I think in a vacuum, you actually made out very well in this trade. I think if you're just looking at redraft rankings, Rodon will probably be the highest ranked one, but Rodon's no stranger to injury risk either. So I think it's a perfectly time to

try and sell on him, you know, joining the Yankees, kind of get that tax too. So to get Jazz and Buckson, I think that that is a very good return for Rodon. I know a funny thing on the draft champion stuff we're taking a look at from, I'm just doing December 15th on. Jazz is actually going higher than Carlos Redon in NFBC draft. So that's just NFBC alone redraft that Jazz is going, I think, four spots higher than Carlos Radon. All right, fair enough. We're going to wrap there for the Welsh. I am Frank.

Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.