Fantasy Baseball Today - Early-Round Busts Including Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll & Many Others (5/27 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 27, 2024

** THIS PODCAST WAS RECORDED BEFORE RONALD ACUÑA SUFFERED A TORN ACL. WE APOLOGIZE! ** What should you do with early-round hitters who are struggling so far (3:05)? ... Ronald Acuña has taken a huge step back after his MVP (7:17). ... Julio Rodriguez is having a power outage (17:28). ... Corbin Carroll hasn't been the same since injuring his shoulder last year (23:30). ... Is it time to change our expectations for Fernando Tatis (35:04)? ... Matt Olson looks like one of the clear buy-lows (40:57). ... Francisco Lindor isn't hitting for batting average early on (45:57). ... Kevin Gausman is one of the few early-round pitchers who's let us down (48:18). ... Are we looking to buy on any of Michael Harris, Bo Bichette, Randy Arozarena or Manny Machado (52:44)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. We're fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. We are now two months into the season. It's time to take a closer look at Julio Rodriguez, Corbyn Carroll, and many other struggling superstars.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Memorial Day, May 27th. Hope everybody is enjoying the long weekend. I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, 11 struggling superstars that were drafted inside the top 50 picks in ADP. 10 of them are hitters. One is a pitcher. No surprise there. There's only one pitcher struggling right now.

Pretty much. Yeah. And his name rhymes with Schmevin Schmawsman. So just to give you a little preview there. Reminder that we are recording this a few days in advance. So the stats won't be exact. hopefully none of the players we talk about get hurt because again these were all early round picks so we don't want that to happen and heads up that we will have a big memorial day weekend recap on tomorrow's podcast before we jump in scott we were talking beforehand and you wanted to just share an overarching idea or a theme on some of the players that we're going to be talking about today again now two months into the season yes i do because i think my what i think is mainly going on with all of the players we're talking about since obviously they were high draft

picks. They have superstar backgrounds, all of that. I still expect things to regress to the mean. I think that's the most likely scenario for all of them. And so I would buy low on any of them. I want to get that out of the way first. Whatever worries I express about them, I would buy low on any of them. And we are going to spend some time on this podcast putting to test what exactly it means to on them and, you know, maybe to different extent I'd buy low on some versus others. And that's fine. But I want to just clear that up right at the top.

I'm not saying abandon ship on any of these guys. Yeah. Like, I kind of want to view it as like a, I'm not concerned about any of them, really. But if I was, that's kind of how I want to approach this conversation, you know? The second thing I want to bring up is, kind of, we already alluded to it.

Since nine of the 10 here are hitters, I think a lot of the reasons why we're here at the end of May and there's still so many high-end hitter struggling is just because it's been a really, really difficult environment for hitters. And I don't know how that's going to play out in the long run. Hitting tends to improve with each month until September when the weather starts to cool off again. but even if you're comparing May to May,

this has been the worst season by home run to fly ball rate and by BAPIP. It's been the worst season in nine years for both of those stats. It's been worse than 2022. 2020 was the second worst. Remember, we kept talking about dead ball and stuff. This year has been even worse. So it's a really, really difficult environment for hitters. And so we may have to lower our expectations for what to expect from hitters as a whole because of that,

including these guys. and there may be certain variables we don't even know to account for because of that, because it's a different environment than any of us are used to. Or everything could be fixed in the summer because, because, uh, you get a new shipment of balls. Yeah, get a new shipment of balls. Exactly. So, like, I just, I don't want to go off the deep end with this.

I think a big part of our job is to kind of ease everybody concerns and we're going to be kind of leaning into them with this podcast. So I don't know, it feels a little troublesome in that way. But if we can just set the ground rules here first and everybody understands, this is not panic time, then that's fine. We can have a conversation. And for some context, 699 OPS right now is the league average. That is the lowest over the past 10 seasons for a full season. And like Scott mentioned, offense tends to get better as the season goes on. So, you know, the fact that it's a 699 OPS right now is a 706.

in 2022. It might be that the offensive environment is similar to 2022, but you're still talking about, like last year, the league average OPS was 734. That's a 35 point gap in OPS. So, you know, a guy who has, I think I was looking at J.T. Rao Muto earlier. And he only has like a 780 OPS right now. Well, relative to league average, he's actually been quite a bit better than he was last season, even though his overall OPS is only 10 points higher. Yeah. And I'm viewing this as kind of a fantasy therapy session too. I think people will email in or tweet out their concerns about struggling superstars.

And I think a lot of the times they just want to hear us talk about what's going on with those players. And when we're recapping, you know, 15 games a night, it's hard to spend time on the big name players. Right. So that's kind of why I wanted to do this here today. And there's only one place to start. that will be all the way up at the top with Ronald Acuna, who was drafted as the number one player unanimously, I would say, across the board, regardless of league type format does not matter. Ronald Acuna had an ADP of one.

He is batting at the time of recording this around 240s, got three homers, 15 steals. He's still on pace for over 50 stolen bases this year. The problems that I've noticed, the strikeout rate has jumped way back up last year. I mean, a career year across the board, but specifically in terms of strikeouts and plate discipline. He's hitting the ball hard, not nearly as hard. The expected numbers are down. And Scott, I do wonder, and there's no way for us to know this. Like, it's just pure speculation on our part. But I feel like we should mention what could be part of the problem is that back in spring training, Ronald Lucunya was dealing with irritation in the meniscus of his right knee,

the same knee that he tore his ACL a couple of years ago. And if you just take what he's done so far this season and compare it to 2022 when he was coming back from the 20, ACL, it's not that dissimilar. So I just kind of wonder if maybe the knee has been a problem and he's not leading it on. It could be. I mean, I can't rule it out. He must be feeling pretty good if he's running a lot. And what I've seen circulating in Braves Twitter, I mean, I follow more people who cover the Braves than any other team.

Probably no surprise there. And the common. theory or explanation maybe from their interactions with the coaching staff is that his timing is off. He's having timing issues. And maybe a lot of that has to do with him missing so much of spring training and then getting off to a slow start and pressing and struggling to get back to the level he's accustomed to. You know, he's still hitting the ball hard. He's still aggressive on the bases. The strikeout rate, the strikeout rate, I think, think is the most concerning thing from a long-term perspective because the rate he's striking out

at now is more in line with career norms than we saw last year. And maybe that's part of the timing issue and he'll cut down on the strikeouts. But I'm less confident in that than the power returning for Acuna. And that's why last week I talked about how I moved to Coonio behind three plate discipline standouts and points leagues, Moogie Betts, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker, because I'm not sure that's coming back for Acuna, the low strikeout rate. I would feel I'm going to cite a stat for the first time. I'm sure you guys already talked about it, but the bat speed stats came out from baseball savant last week, MLB.com.

There's been a ton of really interesting stuff there. And I wish we had previous to 2024. I feel like I can't do anything with it because there's nothing to compare it to. But his bat speed is. 98th percentile still. His sprint speed is right around where it was last season. 64th percentile, it was 67th percentile last year. So that's the thing.

He's even been slightly better defensively than he was last season. So that's the thing where if we were pointing to the knee, I would expect it to show up somewhere in those, because we have like different levels of stats, right? we have, you know, the surface level stats, batting average on base percentage, slugging percentage. We have the underlying stats, hard contact rate, hard hit, you know, average X velocity. Then we have the stats that are underlying the underlying stats.

And I think that is where you would expect a lingering injury to be showing up, right? Sprint speed, bat speed, defense. And I just don't see that. that's not to say it doesn't exist. I just, I'm not seeing it anywhere. And so that's the thing I'm struggling with. Yeah, I pretty much agree with everything Scott said. If you set the strikeout rate at 20% the rest of the season,

I think I'd probably take the under. But before the season, I definitely would have taken the under. So that's like his whiff rate is way up. That's the biggest change. His own contact rate is down almost 10 points from last season. it's actually a little below his career average. So I think there are things to be concerned about here within the context of can Ronald Acuna be far and away the best player in fantasy.

I still think he's the best player in fantasy. I still rank him that way. But I think it's reasonable to say that it's maybe a coin flip. versus the field now, or maybe 40% versus the field, and you probably take the field over him now, whereas before the season, some people took other players, number one overall.

I was looking at the NFC ADP, Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt, Spencer Strider, all went to number one at least left. Major regrets now, even for as poorly as Sikunia has performed. Yeah, so that, you know, I think it's reason. to take the field over him now, but I still rank Ronald Acuna as my number one player in both points in and, and, uh, right.

Yeah, I was going to ask if redrafting today, would you take Acuna first overall? Because some of these other names, I mean, Otani, Bobby Witt, Kyle Tucker, Muki Betts, Soto, Ellie Dela Cruz. They're all having massive seasons. It, it kind of feels like it's one big mix of like, you know, the first overall pick maybe for next year. It's kind of up for grabs right now between all of those names and Acuna, assuming that he gets back on track. I don't know that there's any pitcher that you can just trade for Acuna straight up. Like if you're trying to create a buy low scenario, I still don't think buying low on Acuna is all that realistic. I think you overestimate the average fantasy player. All right. So I mean, I don't think any of us could trade, you know,

with somebody else in the industry, Zach Wheeler for Ronald Acuna. But I think a lot of people listening out there could. Okay. Or somebody even behind Zach Wheeler. Yeah, I mean, my guess is, you know, just looking at, okay, the overperforming pitchers so far this season, or the ones that have jumped up the most, right? Like the Chris Sales, Imanaga, Jared Jones, guys like that.

You would probably have to attach like a second or third round hitter, I would imagine, with one of those pitchers to get Acuna, I think. You could try it without it, but if it came to that, I'd still be willing to do it to trade for Acuna. and I do want to echo that I would also take Acuna first overall in Roto, where I moved him down that was in points leagues. It would be a tough call with Bobby Witt. That's the biggest one I would struggle with, I think. Not Otani?

Not Otani, no. As good as he is, I just, I think Bobby Witt's speed upside gives him the edge. I think Otani's stolen more bases. As he? Witt so far. I think so. I think O'Tani has 13 and Witt has 16. Yeah, Witt has 16 and he's attempted 22. But Otani's only attempted 13. But Otani's pacing for a career. Yes. Yeah. And he's, Otani has nearly doubled the power output from Bobby Witt as well. So, yeah, he's, he's been ridiculous. A quick reminder to sign him for the FBT newsletter. If you haven't already, if you're

watching on YouTube, you can scan that QR code that will take you right to the website where you click on the FBT logo, you punch in your email address, and it's easy as that, and you're signed up, and it's for free. Let's take our first break, and when we return, we'll get into some of the others drafted in the top five. Julio, Corbyn Carroll, we'll do that right after this. Welcome back in, let's continue on with some of the struggling superstars so far this season, and Julio Rodriguez had an ADP of 2.6 entering the year, and at the time of recording this,

hitting around 260, only two home runs, nine steals, a 630 OPS. and just a complete power outage. Just seven extra base hits on the season. His 056 ISO is second lowest of unqualified hitters. Some of the names that he currently ranks behind, Joey Meneses, Brian Rokio, Luis Arise. This is Julio Rodriguez we're talking about. Still hitting the ball extremely hard.

But notice the pull rate is a career low. The fly ball rate is also a career low. And I know the Mariners actually dropped. Julio Rodriguez down to six. in the lineup on Thursday because of, you know, this slow start to the season. But he's been a slow starter in his career. He's gone through like these two months stretches where he just completely takes over and looks like the best player at all, baseball.

Chris, is there anything actually concerning here with Julio or do you think he's just off in terms of like how often he's pulling the ball or getting the ball in the air enough to do damage with, you know, balls in the air and home runs, things like that? Yeah, it just looks like he's a little off. You know, this is, there are guys that I'm genuinely concerned about. We'll get to one very shortly. But in Julio Rodriguez's case, it like, the quality of contact is all like 85% as good as it usually is. And the strikeout rate is only, it's four points of strikeout rate worse, which is not nothing, but not, you know, clanging sirens going off or anything.

like that. His defense is still really good. Everything physically looks okay. He's not pulling the ball as often. That seems like the biggest thing when it comes to the power. But if we were doing a worryometer for

Julio Rodriguez, it's probably a two. For me, I feel very confident that we're going to get one of those world beating stretches from him sooner rather than later. The difficult thing with J. Rod

is that unlike Akuna, like Acuna's been disappointing, but he's been a must-star player still. And Rodriguez is like killing you. He's been, he's legitimately been he's given you some steals, but otherwise he mentioned the eyes. He's caught a bunch of times. Yeah. 9 for 15.

Like you don't want him in your lineup and I don't blame you if you feel that way. And this is where I get into the league context a little bit because, okay, for whatever degree he's off with the pull rate and the ground ball. And the ground ball rate's 44%.

So it's not like 50%. It's not that bad. He's still hitting the ball hard and he's still putting it in the air enough that it should. He should still be productive. And I don't know how to square that. Even by X slug, his actual slug as of this recording is 315. His X slug is 414. Now, we expect Julio Rodriguez to slug better than 414, but he's not,

even within, you know, he's within 99 points of that. That's like, he's behind that by a lot. And I don't, I don't know if that's an environment thing. It's, it's weird, though. That's, that's the part I can't really account for. But I think it's going to turn around. I mean, I could say that for every player. I would agree that my concerns for Rodriguez are less than for some of the other

hitters on this list. but in a way he's the most frustrating one on this list because it's hard to even make sense of why he's performing so poorly. And the Mariners, especially at home, have been really, really bad. This has, if you were looking for environmental factors to blame, they have a 656 OPS as a team at home compared to 702. Now, they also have a 29% strikeout rate, which probably isn't the result of the baseballs or the weather or whatever other explanation we might have for that. But, yeah, I would say even relative to preseason, I might be less concerned about Rodriguez than Ronald O'Cuna.

Just because Ocuna's strikeout rate and whiff rate are a bigger red flag relative to expectations than I think anything with Hula. with Julio Rodriguez. So as frustrating as it's been, I think Julio Rodriguez is probably the best by-low candidate in baseball right now. And I think it's easier to pull off a by-low for him rather than Acuna, for obvious reasons, Akunya and L-MVP,

unanimous first overall pick and fantasy. A lot of the names that I'm going to bring up today are going to be these high-end pitchers, again, like the Chris Sales, Imanaga, Ranger Suarez, who we've talked a lot about recently. I would say, obviously start there and then maybe add your worst outfielder as like, okay, if I had to add something on to try and get Julio Rodriguez.

But I think realistically, maybe an outfielder in like the top 25-ish, plus one of those pitchers. I mean, I would throw it out there and see if I can get it. You're like a Taylor Ward. You're saying one of your worst outfielder's. But everybody's worst outfielder is probably a fringe waiver guy because that's the state of the outfield right now. Yeah.

So what about one you're actually relying on like a Taylor Ward? Yeah, I was thinking like Say a Suzuki. Okay, pairing one of them with a, I don't know, like a Logan Webb, I think I could go for that pretty easily in a 12-teamer. But would it have to be a higher-end pitcher than that? I think you could get that done. I think Suzuki and Webb would be more than enough to get Julio Rodriguez for most people. Yeah, and that's something I would be trying to do right now.

Would you be trying to do that for Corbyn Carroll, who had an 80-10? inside, just inside the top five entering the season. Arguably the biggest disappointment in fantasy this season, batting 191, two homers, eight steals, 557 OPS. That comes after a season where he was the unanimous NL rookie of the year. 285 batting average, 25 homers, 54 steals, 868 OPS. Like Julio, the power has taken a massive step back for Corbyn Carroll. A 0.90 ISO is 13th lowest among qualified hitters.

His home run to flyball rate has dropped from 50. point four percent last year to 3.7 percent this year and the quality of contact. I mean, this is the alarming part. Julio Rodriguez still hitting the ball really hard. Corby and Carroll, his average X velocity has dropped over three miles per hour. So that is a massive amount. He's also hitting a ton of pop-ups. He has 16 infield fly balls.

That's in his first 48 games. He had 19 all of last season. So I think the timing is off right now. He's obviously not hitting the ball as hard as he did last. year. I mean, we have to, we have to bring it up, though. He's played 160 games since that shoulder injury last year. Remember, there were two. It was, I think, June 28th or June 29th, he left the game with a shoulder injury. He came back two or three days later, left again later that week. But I'm going from the first time he left a game and missed time with that

shoulder. He's played 160 games, 254 average, 80s. 39 runs scored 61 RBI. That's not great, but you can live with that. 12 home runs in 160 games, 47 stolen bases. You put it all together, and that's a useful player still. Not over the course of a full C. And that's including, I should note, that's including the postseason and spring training.

He's played 160 games at every level since that. That's probably a third round pick. you know, 47 steals, 12 home runs, 254, 160-ish RBI plus runs. That's a useful player, but it's far away from the guy you were hoping to get. And because it's tied to the shoulder injury, something that he has a history of, and because the quality of contact is significantly worse in a way that is not necessarily true for Acuna or Rodriguez, I think it's very reasonable to be concerned about Corbyn Carroll. Not that he won't be a must-start caliber fantasy option,

but that he's not going to be the superstar you drafted him to be. I'm going to push back on a couple of things there. Because, okay, it's easy to fixate on the average exit velocity. It's lower by three miles per hour, as you say. If his timing is off, it makes sense that it will be lower. His max exit velocity is 83rd percentile, and it was 89th percentile last year. So he is still capable of putting a charge in a ball, unlike few hitters can. And so I think that would be more concerning.

If his hardest hit ball this year was like 108 miles per hour, I'd be like, okay, something's happened here to his strength. It's gone away. So that's the first thing I'll push back on. And the second thing is that it's reasonable to look after the week of shoulder problems last year at the numbers that followed and to downgrade Corbyn Carroll based on that. But he was still a stud. I mean, leaving this year out of it because this year has just been a total disaster. Leaving this year out of it after the shoulder injury, Corbyn Carroll slash 281, 358, 453, the rest of the season with 30 stolen bases and 75 games. that's still a stud.

It may be more like a second round stud, but it's a stud. So if he had just picked up where he left off there, nobody would be that concerned. So, I mean, I'm not saying it, his shoulder is fine. I don't know if it's fine or not.

But if that's the problem, it's because there's something even more serious happening with it than what we saw last year. I just think we would have heard about that by now if it's the case. You know, two months into this season, he would have had an MRI or something. Like, his show you, they would, the Diamondbacks themselves would have been making a stink about the shoulder.

If he's performing this bad two months into the season, they would look into it, right? If they were concerned, there was more damage. You're making a face like you don't believe me, but like they want him fixed as much as anybody, more than anybody. I get that. How often do we find out after the fact that someone played through a whole season with an injury and it just never came out? Like sometimes a superstar who's hitting like one something, a third of the way into the season? It's so the thing is it might just be that he's having two bad months. Yeah, that well, yes.

It's what the difference between Julio Rodriguez and him is Corby and Carroll does at least have a story we can tell. Yeah, just like Ronald Acuna does with the knee. And now the difference there is, like I said, when you look at the sprint speed, when you look at the bat, bat speed, when you look at, you know, physical markers of physical performance, Ronald Acuna is still more or less looks like himself. Yeah. I don't know if the same thing can be said for Corby and Carroll. Part of the problem there is, I believe it was a right shoulder injury.

He throws left-handed. So it's not like we can look at, oh, his arm, his, his throwing velocity is way down there. You know, it's, it's a much more nebulous kind of thing. And it might be just that we want to find patterns and we want to find explanations for things. And when there's a good explanation for something, it makes us more likely to buy into that story, even if that's not necessarily the case. And so I think it's worth pushing back on us saying, aha, it's the shoulder.

It might not be. Yeah. And that's all I'm saying is, yeah, Corby and Carol is one of the most concerning names on this list. I'm not denying that. I would have a much harder time buying low on him. It would have to be pretty low, to be honest. But I don't think it's conclusive that it's the shoulder. It may be, okay.

Small guy who's power, you know, he doesn't pull the ball at an especially high rate. A lot of those just over the fence home runs now may be falling short

with the ball not carrying as well because he's, he would be an early round type of hitter who's more affected by that than most because he's just not as strong as the super sluggers out there. That may be more it than anything. Yeah,

just slimmer margin for error. Either way, it's a problem. And for, to be, clear in my trade values chart, I have moved him behind Ellie de la Cruz. I've moved him behind Yordon Alvarez and Aaron Judge. Yeah. He's still an early second rounder in my overall rankings in both head to head points and Roda. You might be a little higher on him than I am actually,

because I don't think I could give up Austin Riley for him. And Austin Riley's not off to a great style of stuff. I'd be very willing to give up Austin Riley. Maybe if he wasn't in the midst of having missed 10 games in a row. Yeah. I might, but obviously given that, I would do that pretty easy. Okay. Maybe let's be think here.

But like, Corey Seeger, who's had his own slow start, and I don't know, are we going to talk about him shortly or not? No, he's not. No, because he's been pretty good for the last. Yeah, I'd probably trade Corbyn Carroll for Corey Seeger. If I could get any other hitter who I'm convinced as a stud for Corbyn Carol, who I'm not convinced as a stud, frankly.

that's where I'm at with them. I think he is, but I'm not convinced of it. Then I do it. That's reasonable. That's kind of the inverse. If you have one of these struggling superstars, I mean, I think of the three we've talked about, Corby and Carol, like you mentioned, is the one that we're most worried about. Would you guys look to sell low on him comparatively to how we drafted him?

So the third round hitter, a Jose Altovae who's been greatly. Yeah. Do you do that? The thing with that is the best. case, you have to balance not just the downside. And Altuve carries, I think, significant downside in his own right, given his age and his recent injury history. But if both Corby and Jose Altuve have something like their best case scenario, Corby is a much better player. They're coming for you with that take, Chris. Well, that's the ambulance actually coming for for Corbyl's shoulder. The truth is, I don't even think you could pull off that trade in most fantasy leagues. I don't think you could trade Corbyn-Carrel for Jose Al-Tufei. I think you're kind of stuck with him until he picks it up.

And that might be the best case scenario for you, honestly. Yeah. So if you're looking at by low on Corbyn Carroll, it's lower than Julio Rodriguez, right? We said something like Logan Webb and Sayas Suzuki. I don't know. Like Garrett Crochet and Jaron Duran, like a two-for-one, something like that? I would do that if I had, if I was trying. trying to trade for Corbyn Carroll.

I would do that, yes. It would have to be a 10-team league, I think. I don't know that I'd do that. I mean, Jared Duran's a top 25 outfielder himself. There might not be that much difference between Corby and Jaron Duran, if Corbyn Carroll's really a 12-15 homer guy. All right, so you're probably looking at a lower outfielder than that,

and again, one of these kind of sell high pitchers in the top, like, 30 or 40 that we've mentioned so far. Let's, we've talked about three players in 30 minutes. Let's take a break. And when we return, we'll try and get through as many of these names as possible right after this. Welcome back in. We're continuing on with some struggling superstars here on Memorial Day. And let's move on to Fernando Tatis, who I don't think we need to spend too much time on.

He hasn't been a disaster by any means. He's batting 248, eight homers, six deals, 743 OPS. The one thing I wanted to mention is I wonder if now we just need to move the goalposts for Fernando Tatis. Our expectations have changed a little bit because it's too. seasons in a row coming back from the suspension and the surgeries where he is a sub 800 OPS bat. And he still hits the ball hard, but not nearly as hard as he did before the suspension and those surgeries. The expected stats say that Fernando Tati should be much better. But I wonder if it's a similar situation to like Vlad Jr.

where the past couple of years, the expected numbers have said he was going to get better and then it hasn't happened. So Chris, I'll throw it to you. I know that you've been like the Fernando. Tatis guy here on the podcast. Has your expectations changed for Tatis? A little bit. The problem is when we talk about guys who underperform and, you know, Tatis is now about 40 points below his expected Wobah in consecutive seasons.

I want a why. You know, like these stats have a lot of predictive value and they're very useful tools for projecting performance forward. And guys who are underperforming tend to play closer to their expected stats moving forward. And I want a good reason to believe that Fernando Tatis will not.

I don't know if I have one. This is not a situation where he's hitting a ton of balls straight away or to the opposite field. It's not a situation where he's hitting the ball. Well, Chris, it may be. I'm looking at up now.

His on fly balls specifically. Fernando Tatis's opposite way percentage is 13 points higher than last year. And it had been very, his whole career, basically. It's 46% this year. It had been 33% most of his career. But the struggle there is he also underperformed last year. Yeah. So that could be a good explanation.

But one, we're probably talking about his pull rate is. So 2021 was the amazing season, right? His pull rate on fly balls in 2021 was 30%. It maybe didn't even need to be that high that year because the ball was carrying so well in 2020. But it's been more like 20% each of the last two years. It's gone from 30% to 20%. That's pull rate on fly balls. That could be an explanation, but yeah, maybe.

Look, that's a good pull and maybe that's the explanation. I struggle to see that being the reason why he's had a 40% gap between his or 40 point gap between his Wobin and X Woba two years in a row. But maybe it is. And maybe that's just who he is. But like, I don't know, man. Last April, there were a lot of really confident assertions that Juan Soto was going to be that guy. because of his batted ball profile. A lot of people said he's just going to keep underperforming,

and it hasn't been true. So I think you need a really good explanation for why a player will underperform those expected stats. And in this case, I don't know if a 10 point drop in pulled fly ball rate, which probably, I would guess comes out to a handful of batted balls over the course of a season. I don't know how compelling I find that.

Well, okay, so let's not get confused here because as Frank was saying, what we're discussing here isn't so much is Fernando Tatis going to be great? Is he going to be better than this? I think we would all agree he is. But is he going to be 2021 Fernando Tatis again? That's kind of what you were asking, Frank. Yeah, and I don't think that should be like there are enough things that have gone wrong, average X velocity way down, barrel rate way down.

I don't think 2021 is the baseline. I have discovered, though, that in those instances where a player dramatically and consistently underperforms his expected stats, that spray angle seems to be the thing that's not being accounted for by stat cast. And I, like, Marcel O'Suna is a very clear example of this, where he looks like a stud even when he's not. and it seems like he just developed the slice and the swing, he's wasting too much power to right center. And I think that's, I think after a number of years of that with Vladimir Guerrero,

I think that's part of the problem with him. I know ball-batted balls haven't played well to right field at Rogers Center. And San Diego Peco Park is not a great place to hit, obviously. that was Juan Soda's biggest problem. So maybe it's not helping Fernando Tautis either. If we were redrafting today, would he still be a first rounder? He would for me.

I think he would be on the fringe. And I was going to conclude, I don't really think he's a by-low. I think he's kind of fine. I think by season's end, he'll hit 260, go 25-25. And that's a really good player. I think that's like a borderline first-round pick.

But for all the games that I mentioned earlier, are kind of in that mix so far this season to be the first overall pick next year. Acuna's still there, but like Ellie Dealer Cruz, Bobby Witch, Shohei Otani, Kyle Tucker. I don't think Tatea's in that mix. I think he's behind that group.

Sure, I think that's fair. Yeah. Let's move on to Matt Olson, who had an ADP of 14 entering the season, and most Braves hitters have underperformed with the exception of Marcelo Zuna. So far this season, Olson, 228 batting average,

seven homers, a 740 OPS. The strikeout rate has jumped up to 26. his highest since 2020 when he was back in Oakland. He's still hitting the ball extremely hard. I mean, the average X velocity and barrel rate basically identical to what they were last year when he was amazing. And he has underperformed his expected stats by a lot. I would say all the names that we've talked about are by Lowe's. Matt Olson is the one that I might be most confident in him just getting back on track.

And maybe not being the same player he was last year, but like 80 to 90. percent of the player that we saw last year. That's the key. Yeah. Is like his expected Wobah is 3.71. His career expected Wobah is 3.71. So I, I, what's his actual Wobah right now? 325 is yeah.

He's a career. Yeah. So that being said, I think it's also a little bit. He overperformed a little bit last year and he had a career best season. And then that combination, like the underlying skills were the best they'd ever been. and he overperformed his underlying skills a little bit. So do I expect him to be what he was last season? No, I do not.

Do I expect him to be 35 to 40 homers and 120 RBI in that lineup and all the other things that come with it? Yes, it just might be that it's a 235 average rather than a 2. What, he hit 280 last year? That's the bigger thing for me. Yeah, 203, and it was... 140 RBI and 120 runs. Well, from June 1st on, it was 309.

Like, at the end of May last year, Matt Olson was batting 233, so not that better than right now. And, you know, part of it is just baseball. And he goes through stretches like this, where he's not quite on target. But it's not like the strength is diminished. It's not like he's become, you know, he doesn't seem like a fundamentally different player looking at the underlying numbers. I think it's been a while since I've seen this stat and maybe it's out of date, but the Braves still have, they hit the ball hardest on average by a pretty wide margin.

And so, you know, maybe they're suffering from the league involved. more than any other team because of that. And as the weather heats up and the ball starts carrying more, a lot of their struggling hitters, Olson Chief among them, we're going to see improvement just for that reason. But yeah, I wouldn't say I'm especially concerned about Olson. From a trade perspective,

what do you think you would have to add to someone like Alec Bohm or Spencer Stier? Right? I mean, I think those two, not that Alex, Alec Bohm is just a clear cut. You have to sell high on him. But he obviously has been really good so far this season. And I think you could try and pair like a lesser pitcher or something like that with an Alec Boehm or a Spencer Steyer to try and upgrade a battle. Yeah, that's the kind of trade.

I mean, I think it'd be easier to pull off with Alec Boe than Spencer Steer because Steer's been cold for a while. Yeah. But that's the kind of trade I've referred to in the past week where it's like, okay, pitching is so deep. that basically I'll be willing to give up all but the true studs obviously all but the clear cut aces top 25 guys in my rankings I'll like include any pitcher as a throw-in in a deal for what I think is a stud hitter

so I'm looking at my trade chart would you do Framber Valdez and Alec Bohm for Maddles? Yeah I think that's a win for the Olson side on my chart but yeah I think Valdez is right on that border of like top 25. He is right on the border, but he's below it. So,

you know, if it's a 15 team league, if it's a really deep league, you can't afford to give up depth as easily, but the average person listening, yeah, that's the kind of trade. What about like Paul Skeens and Spencer Steer?

Yeah. Yeah, I do that. I think I would. I mean, gosh, it's so hard to give up on Skeens right now, but.

Well, that's not really what you're doing. You're cashing in. Yeah, yeah, for sure. And look, I think if there is a time to do it,

I mean, two of Skeins' first three starts when we're recording this have looked really damn good. He's still a pitcher who throws 100 miles per hour. Anything can happen. So I like where your heads at, Chris. I don't, I don't think that's a crazy thing to try and, you know, as great as schemes has looked, maybe pair a hitter with him and try and buy low on one of these underperforming hitters so far. Let's talk about Francisco Lindor in the ADP of 24 entering the season. We all loved Francisco Lindor coming into the season. He has taken quite the step back, only batting 203,

seven homers, six deals, a 634 OPS. The power and speed still been solid, but the batting average in OPS clearly have not. Plate discipline still looks really good. In fact, his 15% strikeout rate is his best since 2020. Quality of contact has taken a little bit of a step back, but like Matt Olson, the expected stats are much, much better for Francisco Lindor.

So I'm kind of in a similar spot where I feel really confident buying low on either of like Matt Olson or Lindor. I mentioned like the Wariometer earlier, Lindor would be a one. I had this is just Babbup. This is just he had a 277 Babbup last year. He has a 208 Babbup right now. Like pretty much everything else is identical. He's not hitting more infield fly balls.

He's actually hitting fewer infield fly balls. His line drive rate a little lower than last year, but it's within a point. I think there's basically nothing to be concerned. about with Francisco Lindor. Would you guys do Paul Skeens and Anthony Volpe for Lindor? I would. Volpe's looks so good. Yeah, I would do that too.

Okay. The one thing I will say is remember when we thought we were dealing with this deadened ball in 2022, I was calling Lindor bust because he's a middling exit velocity guy and maybe that middling exit velocity guy isn't going to translate to as much production if the ball isn't as lively. I don't know. I guess that concern is still in the back of my mind. But if I'm ranking concern level

for all the players on this list, Lindor would be toward the bottom. I think Willie Adomis, too, is a name just to point to because he's gotten off to a great start. And again, if you could pair him with one of these pitchers outside the top 25, a guy crochet.

Crochet, yeah, he's the name I was going to bring up. I don't know how realistic that is. But again, in certain leagues, it's like throw it out there and see if you might have happened. People have really strong negative opinions about Francisco Lendor, I find. And so he might be a guy that you could buy especially cheap when things aren't going well. All right.

Let's continue on. The only pitcher on this list is Kevin Gosman. The one bad pitcher. The only one. ADP of 31 and he has an ERA of 489, a 151 whip that comes with a 349 FIP, but also a 540 expected ERA. So lots of line drives, barrels, hard contact allowed by Kevin Gossman so far this season. The strikeouts have taken a big step back from 11.5K per nine last year to 9.1. That's gone from a 31% strikeout rate to 22.6%.

The swinging strike rate has dropped a lot since 2022. Velocity on both his fastball and splitter are down right around one mile per hour. And there could be a clear explanation here. Kevin Gossman had the shoulder injury back in spring. could be part of the problem. Not that I've heard that for sure, but could be tied to some of the velocity. Kevin Gosman is one name on this list,

kind of similar to, I guess, Corby and Carroll, where I think the only way I would buy low is if I could buy really low right now because I do have some lingering concerns with him. Where do you rank him now? He's like borderline top 20. Okay. So still pretty high end.

Yeah. You're still rank them higher than like Paul Skeens, for instance. Yeah, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt just because we've seen him have multiple elite seasons. But, you know, a couple more bad starts. And he's, you know, outside that top 25, which we just talked about. Yeah, I have him 16th. So, but what I actually go through with that trade if it was offered to me?

I don't know. I feel like I could buy lower. Ultimately, you can only buy what you can buy. But I've been pretty optimistic about Gosman on the whole. because he still has had starts where he's looked great and it's gotten the whiffs and has gotten the strikeouts. But I don't know. I mean, you make a good point here.

Normally in a normal year, if a guy's velocity was down and a swinging strike rate was down and a strikeout rate was down, I would consider those all big red flags. But I know in this particular year, there are a lot of high-end pitchers who are like that. And so I've looked at the league wide strikeout rate, and it's, you know, it kind of dropped last year and it's kind of the same as last year. And I'm not sure why it seems like so many high-end pitchers are being especially affected by it.

I don't, I haven't really figured out what's going on there. So I'm just a little confused by the whole, the whole pitching scene, to be honest. But yeah, I guess, I guess those concerns about Gosman makes sense. And yeah, I think I agree with your take. I'm coming to it right now, but I think I'd have to, it'd have to be a pretty low sort of by-low. Yeah, I still have him as a top 12 starting pitcher,

and maybe that's giving him too much of the benefit of the doubt. But I do feel like he's earned it. And, you know, the biggest issue right now, his fastball has been getting crushed. That's a problem. I think he has a 600 slugging percentage allowed on his fastball. Yeah. The whiff rate on the splitter has also dropped pretty considerably.

and there was a really good piece on baseball prospectus about Gosman this morning, Thursday, as we're speaking. And one of the big takeaways there was there's less of a vertical gap between his average fastball and his average splitter than there ever has been. So he's throwing his fastball lower in the zone than he typically does. And he's throwing his splitter higher in the zone. And so that mostly suggests it's a, a he's off. Yeah, he's just not. There's a word that I'm trying to think of,

and I can't get to it. He's not sequencing, right? Or just he's just not pitching well right now. And the fact that the fastball velocity is down is a concern, although I think typically would be less concerning for a guy whose splitter is such an important part of his arsenal, especially since the gap between the splitter and fastball is still there. And that would seem to be a more important factor.

So I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt. The biggest thing is like with Corbyn Carroll, it's that we have an explanation for why he might be struggling and it's the shoulder injury. And that's the bigger red flag for me than the performance. I have four more hitters on this list. I want to kind of breeze through each of these names. Michael Harris had an ADP of 34.4.

Entering the season. He's batting 255, five homers, seven steals. And there are some red flags, things that have taken a step back this season. The ground ball rate has jumped back up to 56%. The quality of contact has taken a bit of a step back. And Michael Harris has struggled against lefties. These are all things that I liked about him coming into the season is that he lowered the ground ball rate and he improved against lefties. And so that's taken a step back.

But a reminder that today is May 27th. And on May 27th last year, Michael Harris was batting 177 with two homers, four seals and a 541 OPS. And he ended the season with much, much better. numbers than that. So I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen that way again, but I think there's a good chance. Yeah, I think when you're looking for reasons to change your opinion about a player, you generally want to look for new things.

And that's what we don't really have with Michael Harris. There are, yeah, he's been worse. Well, he's been worse. So of course that the underlough, but I think it's mostly just that he's been worse and not that there is some, is some reason to believe he will continue to be worse moving forward. I think this is a scenario where he's probably just cold.

Yeah, I mean, he's earned the benefit of the doubt just the way last year went. It's, you're just kind of ignoring history if you abandon ship on Michael Harris now, sell him for nickels on the dollar or whatever. And that doesn't mean, you know, it's not a long history. It doesn't mean it's guaranteed to bounce back this year. I think it's reasonable to have doubts. But it's not reasonable to act on those doubts, frankly. It's just not.

So I buy low. Two pitchers we haven't mentioned yet at all. I mean, guys that are like a rocket ship right now up the rankings, Carlos Sardon, you Darvish. If you could turn either of those into Michael Harris, would you? Absolutely. Yes. Cool.

All right, let's talk about Bo Bichette, who had an ADP of 36.6. Entering the season, and like most on this list, power has been a problem. batting 233, three homers, four steals. I actually like that he's running a little bit more early on. That's like a 16 steel pace course of a full season. And he's still hitting the ball hard.

The problem, and Scott, we've talked about this a little bit in recent weeks, is that Boba Shett is not hitting the ball in a way that's optimized for power. He is hitting the ball, he's pulling the ball less than he has in his career. It's a 24.8% pull rate. You see that in his barrel rate, which is nearly cut in. half compared to his career mark. We'll point out that in May, he's come around a little bit and the pull rate has gone up. So I think if you're looking to buy low on Bobachette, the window might be closing because,

again, he's kind of changing some of those things and we've seen that reflected in the May numbers. How much has it gone up? I think I saw it was up to like 28%, which is not still great. It's still, yeah, I mean, it's gone down every year of his career and that would not be returning him to the high and still not even close to the highest pool rates of his career.

You know, it's kind of a confirmation bias thing for me because this was why I was skeptical of Bichette in the first place, him returning to his old power numbers because he just doesn't seem to be gearing his swing for that and he's leaning

into this opposite field approach all the more. But what's strange about it is that should benefit his batting average Like that's the thing I feel like you should be able to count on Bo Pichette for. And it may be kind of a hollowish batting average, given how at least relative to the investment you made in him. But the batting average should be there and it hasn't.

And I'm not sure how to square that circle. The vibes in Toronto are just dreadful. Yeah, we've actually heard that. They might shop Bichet. Yeah, there have been multiple reports that they're looking to shot. him. I'm rooting for that at this point because I just with how much everyone has regressed on that team over the past couple of years, it feels like there's some kind of systemic failure

going on in Toronto that I don't know if I can necessarily point to what it is exactly, but so many guys have gotten so much worse. And that makes me hope. that Boba Chet just gets traded and that a change of scenery will do him good. I have been dropping him in my rankings, though, and I was lower to begin with. I've dropped him behind C.J. Abrams and O'Neill Cruz and who was it most recently? Somebody even more surprising than that. You have him behind Bryson Stott and Hassan Kim.

Yeah, but I dropped him behind those two. Wow. I have him behind Kim, but not Stott. Yeah. So, you know, he's a by-low, of course, and I do think he's going to be a help in batting average in the long run. But not with the same zeal as some of the others on this list. I'll bring up a few other pitchers that are lower down the rankings that I think are very clear so high candidates right now. Seth Lugo has been amazing this season.

Absolutely. No question. Luis Heel coming off another great start against the Mariners. I mean, there are talks now. I mean, this is the first we've heard that, like, he could be moved to the bullpen when Garrick Cole returns. And so. Really? Other people might. They brought that up?

Yeah, yeah. Because he seems to get better. He seems like he's getting better and better. I think it was in a John Hayman article recently. Yeah. With some like whatever. Sources within the Yankees organization or something like that. I mean, I've taken a real heel turn here and have become a, he's in my top 60 now.

I mean, I trade him for Boba Shat. Don't get me. Yeah, I'm not, you know, I'm just bringing these names up. I'm not sure you can float off one for one, but whatever, if you can attach your low-end shortstop or a bench hitter, or like, you know, something like that with one of these, you know, Seth Lugo or Louise Heel. Well, yeah, what's weird about you say attach a low-end shortstop, so the shortstops I have ranked behind. So I have Bo Bichette 12th.

And the shortstops I have ranked behind are Anthony Volpe, Bryce Terang, Willie Adamas, Jeremy Pena, Nico Horner, Danzby-Swanson. We're to 18 now. Who's the low-end shortstop? those guys are all really good it would have to be a middle infielder league I think for me to be that eager to upgrade I think you could like

you could buy like a combine like a cell high pitcher with like a by low Tyro Estrada or a Danesby Swanson and try to do that right yeah that would be I think what I'd be looking to yeah I think so

a couple of their names here Randy Rosearena ADP of 41.4 entering the season It's been a weird start for a few of the Tampa Bay Raids hitters this season, but the power and speed is fine. Eight homers, seven steals, a 162 batting average, a 579 OPS, and there are clear reasons why the batting average is so low. 30% strikeout rate is a career high. 191 BABIP is a career low.

The zone contact also a career low all the way down at 74%. Why is the BABIP so low for a Rose Arena? He's barely hitting line drives. He's hitting more fly balls. he typically hits a good amount of infield fly balls as well. So I think he's trying too hard to hit for power or to raise the launch angle. The thing with the Rose Arena is, I mean,

he might be one of the most streaky players in all of baseball. I mean, he is not to the same level of Julio Rodriguez, but when he gets going, he can be like a borderline league winner. So I'm not saying that's going to happen, but we've seen it in the past. How do you guys feel?

Because Randy, I'm a little bit more torn on just because the plate discipline stuff looks pretty pretty bad. Yeah, I mean, he's kind of like Beau Bichette, where relative to the consensus, I was down on Randy Rosa Raina coming in. I don't have any shares of him. And so I'm going to be a little more inclined to say,

see, I told you so here. But I don't think he's this bad, obviously. I will point out he hit 220 in the second half. Yeah, this started last year. He slugged 369. So, I mean, if we're going to harp on Corbyn Carroll's second half, you know, Randy Rosarinez was much worse. Not that he had a shoulder injury corresponding with it, but like, I don't know. And the expected stats have never looked very good for him, but he's managed to produce in spite of it.

So there's always been reasons to worry about Randy and Rosaraine. If the goal here is to find reasons to be concerned about these guys, you don't have to look very hard with Randy Rosarena. He's always been an overachiever. I would be buying Randy or Roserana, but it's also worth pointing out the last 365 days. He's hitting 207 with a 669 OPS, 20 homers, 24 stolen bases. That's great.

Yeah. It might be that he's just a power speed guy and everything else about. him is pretty mediocre now. I think that could be because, you know, like Scott said, the expected stats have always been pretty mediocre for him. He had two straight years where he had a 350 Wobah right around with like a 300 X Wobah. And it might be the case that he just could outrun that when he was 26 or 27 and he can't do it when he's 29 or 30. Well, another thing that I think I brought up coming into this season was with the stolen base environment improving so much last year and stolen bases surging around the league, our expectations for what a good stolen base total is have changed. Well, a Rosarena only stole 22 bases last year and he's pacing for something similar this year.

So for a guy who we don't expect to be a batting average standard, even if things improve this year. and it's not like he's going to be a 30 homer guy he's going to be more like a 20 homer guy to only steal 20 bases with a so-so batting average it's just not that high end or at least in a regular league context it's not that high end Randy Rosarina

just wanted to quickly look up the pay stats 25 homers 22 steals so far this season with obviously a really really bad batting average last name on this list is Mani Machado with an ADP of 50.4, and he was coming off elbow surgery that he had back in October of last year. It's been a slow start, which maybe we should have expected more. 231 batting average, five homers, two seals, a 642 OPS. The plate discipline has taken a step

back. The walk rate is his lowest since 2014. The strikeout rate is a career high for Mandy Machado. He's still hitting the ball really hard. Lots of those batted balls are on the ground. So that has been a problem for the power. The expected stats still say that Manny Machado should be a good bit better than he has been so far this season. Would you guys actually be looking to buy on Machado or are you worried coming off this elbow surgery? It's going to take longer to get back into it. Yeah, I mean, this is another one where I'm trying to avoid confirmation bias because I definitely started fading Machado pretty hard towards the end of spring training when he wasn't playing. third base and, you know, I think he had a setback with his elbow as well, which obviously didn't

prevent him from hitting, but pushed his timeline for playing in the field back. And so the other thing to keep in mind is just he's 31. And so there could be a combination of natural decline and not being 100% to deal with. So, you know, he does have the worst ex-wobe of his career, 317. that's been in decline now for five straight years. And it's possible that he's just not the same guy anymore. And we saw some slippage last year, specifically with the batting average. It didn't really affect his power.

But now, you know, is he losing a little bit more off of everything? I think that's a reasonable concern. I'm more optimistic than it sounds like you are. I feel like there was reason to be concerned coming off the elbow. injury, but the concern there wasn't that he's never going to be good again. The concern there was that he may not be quite right right away. And we're kind of getting to the point where things should start to turn around if that's what's going on here.

And I'm thinking that's what's going on mainly because there's still a lot of red on the stack has page. He's still hitting the ball very hard, pretty much as hard as normal. The biggest concern is that he's putting the ball on the ground so much. just from a pure like evaluating the stats perspective. The biggest concern is that. And that is, I feel like that often happens when a player isn't feeling quite right. He's putting the ball on the ground.

Certainly that happens with timing issues like we talked about with the cunea. But, I mean, Manny Machado has basically been the same guy for a decade. And he's only 31. You can say that's old, but it's still considered a player's prime. and he's still hitting the ball very hard. So I think I already have bought him in one league. Third base is one of the weaker infield positions. And I think it's worth pursuing

if you got stuck with like Jake Berger as your third baseman or somebody who's really dropped off. And I think given that the concerns about his elbow, I think it would be easier to pull off a by-low trade with Bani Machado. As somebody who drafted. to Jake Berger as his third baseman in Tout War Scott. I have hit up the Mani Machado manager, the Alex Bregman manager, Max Muncie before he got hurt, and no one's looking to sell on their third baseman.

Yeah, well, you play with smart guys. I'll continue to watch. All these listeners play with dumb guys. Come on. Scott White, the fantasy elite is back. A quick reminder that we will be live again tomorrow with a huge recap of Memorial Day weekend. And so we will see you again then. wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball

today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.