Fantasy Baseball Today - Edwin Diaz Injury, Salary Cap Strategy & March ADP Risers/Fallers (3/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 16, 2023

Edwin Diaz appeared to suffer a major right knee injury following his WBC appearance (2:00). Who might close for the Mets? ... News (7:55): Freddie Freeman is dealing with a hamstring and we have an u...pdate on Carlos Rodon. ... A bunch of prospects were sent down the other day (9:40). ... Let's get into salary cap (auction) draft strategy (15:38). ... Should you create a strict draft plan (18:20)? ... What about the Stars and sleepers strategy (25:35)? ... How should you nominate players (28:45)? ... Is there a strategy to bidding (33:16)? ... More news (40:57): Jose Quintana needs surgery and will miss a few months. ... Which players are rising and falling inside the top-100 (46:33)? ... Which players are moving in the top-200 (51:18)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Fantasy Baseball Today is a finalist in the Baseball Category for the Sports Podcast Awards! Quickly create an account and vote here: https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Let's get back into Strategy Week, this time talking salary cap drafts. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, March 16th.
Starting point is 00:00:36 Frank Stamphill joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we will be talking strategy for salary cap, leagues also known as auctions. I have some ADP risers and fallers in the month of March. The latest news, I mean, this podcast is going to take kind of a weird turn because the WBC game just ended between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, and it was a really fun game, except for what happened after the game, a major injury.
Starting point is 00:01:01 So we'll talk about that as well. Thanks as always to those watching us live. Please like this video and subscribe, tap that little bell to get notified every time. we go live. And if you're listening on the podcast side, make sure to download, follow, and leave a five-star review. We really appreciate it. If you missed any of our recent shows, remember that you can always go back and listen on demand. Just yesterday, we did a live head-to-head categories mock draft. This weekend, we'll have position preview updates and another
Starting point is 00:01:29 mailbag. You'll especially want to listen tomorrow as I'll announce the podcast listener league participants. As always, I was floored by the amount of emails we received, the creativity, the thoughtfulness. I went through every single one of these emails. It basically took up my entire Wednesday, if I'm being honest, narrowed it down to 40. So that's where we're at.
Starting point is 00:01:50 I'm going to cut that number basically in half, and I will announce the winners. Tomorrow was very tough, but thanks as always for your support. Let's get into the unfortunate news, kind of breaking news coming here, just after this game between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, Edwin Diaz appeared to suffer a right leg injury, could not put any weight on his leg,
Starting point is 00:02:10 left in a wheelchair, as scary, as somber scene, his teammates were crying, his brother was crying. Chris, I mean, initial reactions,
Starting point is 00:02:17 we don't know what the diagnosis is yet, but it seems like it's going to be a pretty serious injury for Edwin Diaz. Yeah, I mean, it's so hard to know in the immediate aftermath of an injury, especially in this instance, like,
Starting point is 00:02:32 there's not really any video of it. It happened while he was celebrating the final out of the game with his teammates, and the camera kind of cuts away. And I don't know. We would just kind of see the aftermath where he's trying to put weight on it. He can't. His legs just kind of dangling. And they end up bringing out a wheelchair to bring him off.
Starting point is 00:02:52 So, yeah, I mean, it certainly felt serious. It was a weird, weird scene just going from this really raucous celebration to everybody on both sides. You know. You say raucous celebration, but it was actually pretty subdued. Like they were doing the... Yeah, they were just jumping. They were piling on top of each other. They were just doing the little like half-hearted hop.
Starting point is 00:03:16 Arms around shoulders hopping in a circle together. Yeah, it wasn't even like, you know, like... I don't know if you guys remember Kendriss Morales. When he broke... Was it? Kendris Morales broke his leg, jumping on home plate after a game. Chris Coglin. I want to say Tor.
Starting point is 00:03:32 is ACL or meniscus celebrating a walkoff. It didn't really look, I don't know, it was a weird thing. It just seems like a total fluke. And obviously, hopefully, we hope it's nothing serious. But it certainly looked serious. You know, the fact that he had to be wheelchared off the game, off the field. I've got my Twitter notifications set up for, you know, the big reporter. So if anything comes in, we'll talk about it on the show.
Starting point is 00:04:04 But yeah, it's really frustrating. Really just, what a crappy way to end a really, really exciting, fun baseball game that sucks. Yeah. And, you know, there's a chance by the time most people are listening to this in the morning. More will be out there, of course. my initial reaction I think it's probably going to be a long-term injury I think we're going to be talking about
Starting point is 00:04:38 Adam Ottavino as a replacement or if not Adam Ottavino they have David Robertson who of course has a lot of closing experience and they may just say the Mets may just say well whatever we'll go by committee and just let it work itself out the way so many teams do since there isn't
Starting point is 00:04:58 like an obvious closer in waiting there. But my initial reaction, if we're talking replacements for Edwin Diaz, would be to target Adam Adamadovino, who there were a few times in the second half last year. Diaz actually worked the eighth in Ottavino the ninth. So it seems like Bucksiawalter has a fair amount of confidence in him. Yeah, I, um, it's kind of funny. Adamadovino and David Robertson have like identical numbers
Starting point is 00:05:25 the last like four seasons. They were both really, really good. in 2019, terrible in 2020 and 2021, and then really, really good in 2022. So it's not like you can just point to one of them and say the track record clearly favors one. I think I'm with Scott that Adamadovino would be the guy I would go with. He's got a, you know, at least last year he had better control, which I think, you know, tends to make managers feel a little more at ease. But yeah, you know, obviously we'll wait to see what comes out of it.
Starting point is 00:05:58 but my lean would be Adamadovino, who I was targeting, you know, I think I got him yesterday in the in the head-to-head categories draft that we did. Just as someone who could give you strikeouts and good ratios if you're building a team that way. He had closer caliber numbers last year, at least, 206 ERA, 0.98 whip, 10.8K per 9. But the overall track record is pretty inconsistent. Yes. He was a late career breakout. He took a big step forward with, uh, the development of his slider when he was with the,
Starting point is 00:06:32 was it with the, the Rockies or the Yankees when he took the big step forward? But I think he's definitely someone who's been better late in his career. I think it was the Rockies where Adam Otavino really broke out. And then the Yankees signed him after that. I'm pretty torn on this one because Atovino obviously has some experience with the Mets and Buccio Walter used them a little bit last year down the stretch in that role. But David Robertson has much more experience just in general as a closer.
Starting point is 00:06:58 So I'm kind of torn right now. I would actually probably lean with David Robertson, but I could see it going either way. I could see it being a committee, like you guys mentioned. So as we learn. It would feel a lot like the Philly situation, I would say, where, okay, Kimbrel, you know, he's, there's a question whether or not he's even good,
Starting point is 00:07:17 but he has closing experience. So is he the one to target, or do you go with Sir Anthony Dominguez, who has been better recently? It would kind of probably, Unless the Mets outright said, oh, this is our replacement for Edwin Diaz. It would be that same sort of exercise where you're being pulled in two different directions. Yeah, just a brutal blow for Edwin Diaz and for Mets fans.
Starting point is 00:07:40 I mean, genuinely you feel bad for Mets fans. They resigned Diaz this offseason, got paid a bunch of money. So as we learn more, we will fill you in and let you know what's going on with the Edwin Diaz situation. There was another much less serious injury in the WBC just a couple of days ago. Freddie Freeman left his game on Tuesday. with hamstring tightness, the Dodgers say that they're not concerned about opening day, are either of you two
Starting point is 00:08:03 worried about Freddie Freeman. We're exactly two weeks away from opening day. I mean, all indications are, it's a minor thing, and he'll be fine. So I don't have any reason to disbelieve that at this point. All right. Carl Sordawn's rehab from the forearm strain is apparently going well,
Starting point is 00:08:20 and he could miss just two to three starts if he doesn't have any setbacks. Key words there, if he does not have any setbacks. So we just don't know for sure. Chris, the ADP on Rodon since last Friday. The news came out on Thursday. So from Friday on, his ADP is 98.4, just behind Trista McKenzie and Robbie Ray.
Starting point is 00:08:39 Kind of feels like the right range. Yeah, clearly everybody's just drafting off of my rankings, because I think that's pretty much exactly where I moved him. 95th was where I moved him in my initial reaction when you and I talked about it on the pod. And I feel no need to move him up or down from that point. but you know, this is a tough one because it's like if everything goes right, but he's a pitcher, there's 98 miles an hour, everything rarely goes right for pitchers.
Starting point is 00:09:08 That's kind of the whole thing. So it's like it's not just a question of can he get back after missing, you know, 10 days of the regular season. It's can he then avoid injuries moving forward? He clearly carries more injury risk than Robbie Ray and Tristan McKenzie, who's being drafted around. He also has much more upside. in either of those two guys in my opinion.
Starting point is 00:09:27 So it's a fine area for him to be drafted. If you take him off your draft board, I understand that. But I think he's worth the gamble there. Scott, we had a bunch of prospects sent down and not just prospects, you know, formerly Major League players. Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder, both optioned by the Braves, meaning that Jared Schuster and Dylan Dodd will battle for the final rotation spot. And both had really good numbers in the minors last year.
Starting point is 00:09:54 Schuster pitched 10 games at AAA, much more than that overall, but he did get up to AAA. Dodd, 142 innings in the minors last year, one start at AAA. But it seems like both already, and honestly, both of their numbers were really good last season in the minors, too. Yeah, so I know less about Dodd. Schuster, as I think you said, was the Braves' first round pick in the draft a couple years ago. And he's kind of more of crafty, lefty, I would say, doesn't throw especially hard, It has a really good change up, has a slider that's come around recently to kind of round out his arsenal. So those types of pitchers can sometimes be underrated as prospects and then go on to be very effective major league pitchers.
Starting point is 00:10:40 Or they're kind of middling stuff. End up playing as kind of middling. It's just hard to tell. I think I'm more excited about Dodd. Actually, I've seen a lot of people in deeper leagues I'm in with this news. for Schuster, and maybe it'll be Schuster. But I was looking at Dodd's numbers, and I need to read up more on him. 24 years old was their third round pick two years ago.
Starting point is 00:11:08 And after arriving at AA last year, started at high A, but after arriving at AA, had a 323 ERA, 62 strikeouts in 53 innings, a 69% strike rate. which is about as good as it gets, and a 16% swinging strike rate, which also doesn't get much better than that. So, I, you know, the fact that he has that, like, premium control
Starting point is 00:11:41 and still the potential to miss bats at that rate, at least in the minor league ranks, and so far Spring has been just as impressive. I'm definitely going to take a closer look at this Dylan Dodd character, and maybe, maybe he'll be the one to get the shot. According to MLB pipeline, they have his control as his best tool,
Starting point is 00:12:03 60 grade with the slider and change up at 55. So potentially two solid secondary offerings to go along with really good control. That is Dylan Dodd competing for the fifth starter job with the Atlanta Braves. A couple of their prospects just worth mentioning getting sent back down to the miners. N. Manuel Valdez was actually having a good spring training.
Starting point is 00:12:21 I thought he had a chance to make the team. That's with the Red Sox. Andy Rodriguez with the Pirates, Edward Julian, soon, my friend, soon, with the Minnesota Twins, Connor Norby, Jackson Holiday, Joey Ortiz with the Orioles, and then Ellie De La Cruz,
Starting point is 00:12:35 Matt McLean, and Christian Encarnacian Strand with the Reds, which you hate to see it, obviously from a fantasy perspective. I get it from a real life, Reds perspective. He hasn't played a AAA yet. He's a little bit older at 23 years old,
Starting point is 00:12:50 but I get it for them. It just kind of sucks for fantasy, guys. Yeah, I kind of had that feeling once I saw Vado was back to playing in games with still a couple more weeks to go in spring training. That was always incarnation's path is filling in for Vado. But as I mentioned during our mock draft, the fact that we saw these like Ian Anderson and Christian Incarnacian Strand getting optioned on Tuesday, I mean, clearly this was some kind of
Starting point is 00:13:24 kind of you have to get your roster down situation across the league. And yet the Yankees didn't do that with Anthony Volpe. They're keeping him around. And he had another big game on Wednesday, reached base three times, stole another base, had a couple really nice plays at shortstop. It seemed like a long shot coming in that he could push Oswald Paraza for that role. But he has been the one getting all of the headlines this spring. And Paraza hasn't done much.
Starting point is 00:13:52 I know he hit a home run on Tuesday night, but he's batting 200 or whatever so far in the spring. We like both guys long term, but I just kind of wonder what is the playing time going to be like this season for redraft leagues. And Volpe is the much better prospect. Parazza is considered a decent prospect, but Volpe is a borderline top 10 guy across baseball.
Starting point is 00:14:13 So I don't want to undersell. Versus top 50. Yeah. Top 50 is still really good. I'm not saying Parazas, but like he's a little older. I'm pretty sure. and he's just not viewed as a, you know,
Starting point is 00:14:24 the potential impact guy, the Volpe could be. So it's, it's probably a situation where like, if they're both on similar timetables, you know, you could look at it both ways, right?
Starting point is 00:14:33 You could look at it and say, well, you know, the way that the, I think the Rays did this with Taylor Walls instead of, I can't even remember. Wonder Franco.
Starting point is 00:14:42 Wander Franco, yeah, where they called up Taylor Walls. And it was like, why are they calling up a shortstop prospect who isn't Wander Franco? And it's like, you know, you could see like,
Starting point is 00:14:50 let's see what this guy can do. maybe we catch lightning a bottom. We don't have to call up Wanderfranco yet, but you could also just look at it and say, well, if they're on the same timetable, call up the better player. And Anthony Volpe is probably the better player. So, you know, I could see it being that way.
Starting point is 00:15:06 And then the fact that he's having a much better spring might just lock it up for him. No, Volpe is definitely someone who has gone from fringe consideration and drafts early in the spring to someone who I think in even your 12 team league probably used to be drafted. I moved him ahead of Paraza himself, who I'd been talking up as a sleeper. Now I'd just straight up rather take Volpe. All right. Well, let's take an early break here on fantasy baseball today. When we get back, we'll talk salary cap draft strategy right after this. Salary cap draft strategy, to be totally honest, we can do an entire week's worth of content just talking
Starting point is 00:15:44 about this topic. We're going to try and cram it into like 20, 25 minutes. So let's see how this goes, again, also known as auctions. And if you have not done or played in a format like this before, I highly recommend it. I think it is the best way to play fantasy, anything, fantasy baseball, fantasy football. It does not matter. You can get whatever players you want, get your targets, you're not restricted by where you're drafting in a snake draft. And especially if you could do one in person, get everybody inside of a room, man, there is
Starting point is 00:16:14 nothing better than doing a live salary cap draft. One of the first questions we usually receive about this format is how do you distribute your money? We're typically talking about a $260 budget. I feel like 70-30 in favor of hitting is quite common. I've changed it the past couple of years to reflect recent trends, you know, the JBE. So if you're doing 70-30. Frank, come on. Acronymes are stupid.
Starting point is 00:16:42 No, they're not. They're insider language that newcomers are like, what are they talking? talking about government likes to use acronyms. I mean. What's wrong with the government, Scott? We're saving one syllable by saying JBE instead of juice ball year. I just say juice ball here. All right, fair enough.
Starting point is 00:16:59 Scott, we'll start with you. Do you have a typical breakdown of how you like to spend your money in a salary cap draft? No, I don't. I've never thought about it in those terms, except when I get asked this question and I'm like, if people think about it in those terms, I just, I just look at the positions I want
Starting point is 00:17:18 and the amount I'll probably have to spend at them and try to make a budget that way and don't ever calculate, okay, this percentage on pitching. I'm curious to see how much I spent on pitching this year where I was trying to de-emphasize it and get back to more of an old-school approach with a much higher, like some might say excessively high,
Starting point is 00:17:46 percentage of my budget going to hitting. So let me look into that because I think apart from the 28 I spent on Sandy Alcantara, I spent no more than $3 on any pitcher. So it can't be that much that I spent in total. Just to put this in perspective,
Starting point is 00:18:02 I know the overall hitter pitcher split in my NL-only labor draft was 6733 in favor of hitting. I think I wound up at like 62% hitting. That wasn't the plan. I was trying to go 65%, but a few things just didn't work out. Chris, I feel like when we did our live draft last week, I asked you this question. You typically don't come up with a very
Starting point is 00:18:25 stringent plan, right? You like to, you have an idea of players that you want, but what is that idea usually? Is it just, hey, I have a few main targets or do you think about like each position and you try to find players at that position? What do you think? Well, I would say that work is mostly done months ago when I come up with my auction values. and they're my salary cap values. Like that, that work, it comes in terms of when I'm valuing players themselves,
Starting point is 00:18:54 valuing them, valuing them relative to the other players at their positions, valuing them to the pool as a whole. Once I'm actually drafting, I don't, I'm not like, ooh, this is,
Starting point is 00:19:05 I've spent 36% of my budget on pitchers. I have to stop. Like, it's not, it's not really that way. It depends on how the draft is going, who, where the values are.
Starting point is 00:19:14 and even sometimes like just what I've drafted so far and how that'll impact it. So no, I'm not really too worried about, you know, spending X percentage of my budget on one position versus the other now. I spent 80-20 on the 12th to Roto salary cap draft, 80% to hitting 20% to pitching. I'm trying to find it. Was that the head to head of auction league?
Starting point is 00:19:43 It was Memorial Magist. Okay, for some reason the results are showing up for me there. I don't think there's a right answer to this question either because I've talked to really great and smart players who have said you know, I kind of have an idea going in, but I'm just going to take the values where they fall and I'll kind of figure it out on the fly kind of thing. I am the opposite and maybe that's to my detriment, but I will try to have three options at a similar price range at each position. Yeah. And that's what I do. That's my, that's my extent of my planning too.
Starting point is 00:20:14 because you can't, unless it's a really high-end type that you know you're willing to break the bank for, you're willing to go beyond projected values by three or four dollars. And if I know that, I'm usually just going to plan for going over the budget, three or four dollars, you know, you can't zero in on one player unless it's that class of player because you just have no idea what the rest of the room's going to do and you have no idea if it's going to be a reasonable amount, full amount, particularly if it's a buzzable, player, like a really buzzy player that everybody's excited about, you're probably going to underestimate how much he goes for. And so you need to have, like you said, Frank, two or three players, three options in that same price range. And it's just like, it also kind of depends on
Starting point is 00:21:01 what time of the draft a player gets thrown out at. Sometimes a $25 player goes for 30 because he got thrown out early. Sometimes a $25 player goes for 18 because he got thrown out late. So, you know, it also, like I looked it up. I spent 73% of my budget on hitters, 27% on pitchers. That feels fine to me. But it could have very easily gone the other way because there was definitely a second pitcher. I had Justin Verlander for 27. My next highest was 13 with, I think, Robbie Ray.
Starting point is 00:21:35 There was definitely another starting pitcher in the higher end that I was looking at, who I was involved with the bidding until the end. my ratio could have been a lot different in that instance. So, you know, I try not to go in with a plan just because I know myself. And I know that like when I want something, like here's an example in real life. I decided to build a computer a couple of years ago. And I decided on Tuesday because I couldn't find a PS5 available anywhere to buy. So I was like, screw it.
Starting point is 00:22:07 I'm going to build a computer. I'm just going to spend twice as much money on building a computer. Total impulse decision. Okay. And I was like, I'm going to do this right now. And my wife had to be like, no, it's okay. You can wait until Friday when you're off work. You don't.
Starting point is 00:22:19 And that's why I, if I want something, I tend to be impulsive and I tend to fixate on it. And so I try not to come up with a rigid plan because I don't want to hyper fixate on X players and end up kind of forgetting about the rest of the player pool. When there's, you know, always going to be good values to be founded in a salary cap draft. I wasn't expecting today's podcast to become philosophical, but I think there's something to that, Chris. It's knowing yourself too. I mean... Yeah, there's psychology to it.
Starting point is 00:22:51 You guys see this run... Like, every day this rundown, I go pretty crazy on it because, you know, I like things to be organized. I like to have a plan. I like to know where things are going, and that's exactly how I plan out my salary cap. And I'm just a disaster.
Starting point is 00:23:04 No, I wouldn't say that. Come on. Just getting back to... I'm saying it. Just getting back to the point I was making before about the three similar players three players in a similar price range. I think it's especially important in Roto
Starting point is 00:23:16 to find three players that have similar skill sets because for me it's just easier to track my stats if I find players with similar skill sets. For example, in my NL only labor draft, I had Reese Hoskins, Christian Walker, Roddy Tellez written down for first base
Starting point is 00:23:31 $18 to $20. I think all those players are going to be relatively similar. They're going to hit around 240 to 250, 30 plus home runs. So that's what I like to do. and I'll do that for each individual position in my draft. But I think it's also knowing your format too, because in Tout Wars, this Sunday, it's a live salary cap draft,
Starting point is 00:23:53 12-team head-to-head points league. Typically, those are shaller formats. It's roto-style lineups. So what I've done in the past two years, I don't really spend more than $30 or $35 on any player. I live in the mid-tier because guys like Corey Seeger or Bregman, I know that they go for cheaper in this league and they're really good standouts in that format.
Starting point is 00:24:15 So I think again, knowing your format as well, Scott, I mean, you went Stars and Scrubs in our most previous draft, but if it was a deeper league, you might have shopped in the mid-tier more, something like you've done in an AL or NL-only league. Yeah, and those are obviously opposite extremes. So the one you're talking about, a 15-team league with the standard roto lineups,
Starting point is 00:24:35 that's on the deeper end of the pool. it's not so insanely deep that I think you have to have to really check the impulse to buy a high-end player but as a general rule the scarcer your waiver wire is going to be so the deeper your league is the scarcer the waiver wire is going to be the more you need to ensure yourself production at every spot and that means that's the opposite of Stars and Scrubs That's a scrub in that league risks being a black hole in your lineup situation, right?
Starting point is 00:25:18 And that's the quickest way to lose. So in order to ensure that your worst players aren't just zeros, you have to spread your dollars a little more evenly. But that probably doesn't go for the majority of the audience because the majority of the audience doesn't even play in anything as deep as a 15 teamer. Right. I would say that 12 teams are fewer, like the Memorial Manning. Magazine League, the one we've been referencing, which isn't even as shallow as it gets. I mean, we still have 360 players rostered in this league. But it's shallow enough that I do prefer to go the Stars and Scrubs route where I, for instance,
Starting point is 00:25:56 you know, I bought Aaron Judge for 48. I had Nolan Aronado, Jose Altuve, Corey Seeger, Sandy Alcantra, Cedric Mullins. And then as I talked about, I had a bunch of two, three-dollar pitchers. and several two, three-dollar hitters as well, those are the scrubs, obviously, to pair with those studs. And the key to the Stars and Scrubs approach is that your scrubs presumably aren't actually going to be scrubs. They're going to be players who you think have a lot of upside,
Starting point is 00:26:27 who you think maybe just slip through the cracks and went for less than they should. It's basically Stars and Sleepers, Scott. Kind of, yeah, it kind of is. And the key being with, you need to be able to rely on the waiver wire some is because all of those sleepers aren't going to work out. You're going to have, you're going to need to cycle through a few options
Starting point is 00:26:48 at some of those positions probably before you land on the right ones. But you have this really sturdy foundation of studs who, you know, if you can just fill in the rest of your roster with players who are pretty good, the overall outcome, you know, the bottom line is going to end up better than somebody who distributed his dollars more evenly. So you have to know your style of play to do that. You have to know how aggressive you plan to be on the waiver wire, how good you are at picking out sleepers,
Starting point is 00:27:23 and how good you are controlling impulses during the draft. Because you noticed I said the scrubs were two and three-dollar players. I didn't say they were $1 players. I think the biggest key to this strategy is you have to know when you've spent all you can afford to spend and are only willing to go to $3 on anybody who gets nominated at that point because if you end up blowing out your budget
Starting point is 00:27:50 and are left with a bunch of roster spots to fill for $1 each, you're in big trouble because you can only win players you yourself nominated at that point. You can't jump in on anybody else's nominations and so you get your 1 and 12 chance to nominate unless it slips through without anybody else nominating
Starting point is 00:28:14 and you don't get them and you just have to wait that long again to nominate somebody else and chances are all the good players all the good sleepers you were targeting and yeah you're not going to get any that's what happened for me in the draft and you talk about discipline
Starting point is 00:28:30 and I ended up pushing Nick Castellanos to $6. And that's like, I'm fine if I get Nick Castellanos for, say, I think it was $6. But that was my max bid at that time. So once I had him, I was, yeah, it was $6 and I was down to just dollar bids. And it's like, you know, I ended up with some decent ones, Trevor Rogers, Anthony Rendon, uh, Josiah Gray, Kabor, Ries. Like, there's some interesting players there.
Starting point is 00:29:00 But the bottom half of my roster, you know, gap between a $3 outfielder I probably could have gotten and Nick Castiano's and then the $2 players I could have gotten instead of Dylan Floro are, you know, there's probably some room there that I wish I would have navigated a little better, which is why, again, I struggle with the impulse control. Yeah. So that that's, you know, that that's a, that's a limitation of myself that I know that I have to be super conscious of in my salary cap drafts, especially early on. because I have a tendency to just be like, I'm going to be on every player. And I have definitely found myself sitting there for two hours with nothing to do because I spent $180 on three players.
Starting point is 00:29:44 What about the nomination process? And this can go many different directions. I think a lot of people, Scott, will typically nominate players they don't want to get money off the table. But you have to be careful with that because say the player that you do want winds up being the last player in that tier, you're like, ah, I don't really want Manny Machado.
Starting point is 00:30:05 I don't want Raphael Devers. I really want Austin Riley. So you nominate those other two, you get money off the table. There's a chance Austin Riley could go for more money than those guys because everybody else in the room also knows, all right, this is the last elite tier third basement. I got to spend up to make sure I get him. So it's a fine line.
Starting point is 00:30:23 Well, that could be how it played out, plays out, or it could be how it played out in the Memorial Magazine League where I took Aeronado, Nolan Aeronado, for the $32 because I knew it was only Austin Riley left and then Riley went for $32 himself. Right.
Starting point is 00:30:39 So that was frustrating. And then you'll see stuff like I'm looking at a five picture, four pick stretch from the draft last week where Trey Turner went for 43. Okay, he's a top five player.
Starting point is 00:30:53 Juan Soto, whose consensus ranked lower than Trey Turner, went for 45. And then Mookie Betts, who consensus is right with Juan Soto. Soto went for 42.
Starting point is 00:31:04 And so it's also like it can tend to be all over the place. And I think Mookie was kind of the last player in the tier. Kyle Tucker was still out there. He went for 38. So I think that's probably the best value among those high-end outfielders. But it's also, you know, sort of hard to predict. And I'm looking at Edwin D. went for 22 right after that.
Starting point is 00:31:26 To get back to your point about who you should nominate. when Frank I've found that in the earliest stages when there's kind of a player or two or three that my whole strategy depends
Starting point is 00:31:44 on. I just go ahead and nominate them because I need to know if it's realistic. I'm going to get them at the price I want to get them for because if I can't then I need to have
Starting point is 00:31:55 something else to piff it to. And if that player's nomination is delayed to the point that all the comparable talents are gone by the time he's nominated. It's like I got nothing else to spend this big wad of cash on. And I wish I had known that when other players I liked were being bid on. There's value and cost certainty. Yeah. So I tend to nominate players. And this, it's not
Starting point is 00:32:21 universal, but I tend to nominate players I want early. And then players I don't want thereafter. Certainly when I get to the point where I've spent the majority of the majority of the majority of, of my money and I'm just looking to hop in for two or three dollars on other people's nominations when they nominate for one. I jump in two or three right away. Certainly once I'm at that point, I'm nominating players. And these are kind of lower end players that I'm nominated, but that's when I nominate players I don't want for a dollar. But specifically, it's players I don't want who I could live with getting for a dollar. Players you don't want for low end. Players you don't want for $2. Right. Exactly. Players, I
Starting point is 00:33:02 could accept for $1, but I wouldn't want to spend more than a dollar on them. And I hope somebody else bids two or three, and I can actually get a player I really do want instead. That's usually when I'm nominating players I don't want. I think there's a big strategy when it comes to bidding as well. And we talked about this live while we were doing the draft where I will change it up. There'll be times where I'm super aggressive as soon as someone else bids, I'll bid right away again. Or if a player is slowing down, I'll wait going once. going twice.
Starting point is 00:33:34 All right, I'll go back in. Just to kind of throw people off and make them think like, all right, maybe I'm, this is the last, you know, dollar that I'm willing to go. And just throw somebody off like that. They think that they want them. So there's definitely psychology involved
Starting point is 00:33:47 in bidding like that. And so I think changing up your cadence is something I like to do. And if you ever do a live salary cap draft, if you have a player price at a certain point, for example, I keep going back to this because it's still so fresh in my mind. N-L-only labor.
Starting point is 00:34:02 I had Lindor price at $30. I was back and forth with, I think it was Ron Chandler, 26, 27, he goes 28. I jump right away to 30. As soon as he says 28, I say 30. Because I know that I'm willing to go 30. And if it's a strict room, they're probably going to freeze on that jump bid.
Starting point is 00:34:20 So it's something that I like to do as well. Chris, any other things that come to your mind when it comes to a bidding strategy? Yeah, I mean, no, that's, it's like, I also understand that I tend to get really frustrated when people do the last second bid to me because I, you know, I get impatient. I get frustrated and I think I've got the guy and I start celebrating. I, you know, write them down and then I don't have.
Starting point is 00:34:43 And I have a bad tendency when someone does that to just immediately hit the bid button again. And I've gotten messed up and ended up paying $4 more than I wanted for a player that way. And that's also part of why I try not to have a set group. of players that I have to have because I also know that I'll get caught up in that regard as well. So it's salary cap drafts are tough for me. Just like on a psychological level, it's exhausting. Just beyond the fact that they're four hours long, which you have to prepare yourself for. But it's also like, you know, you have to know your weaknesses and strengths as a player.
Starting point is 00:35:27 You have to know how your league tends to go because, you know, if you've been. playing with the same group of people for 10 years, there are going to be things that everyone knows about everyone else. There's always the guy who likes the best players from four years ago. That's just a guy in every fantasy league. And then there's there's going to be the person who's obsessed with sleepers and will pay up for every breakout. And so, and, you know, I used to play in an NL only league with like, it was me and Heath and a bunch of Cardinals fans. And so you just, every Cardinals player went for way more than they should have. And one of my fantasy football leagues were all from Miami.
Starting point is 00:36:06 Dolphins players go for way more than they should. So it's like, you know, that we can talk strategy and we can talk general strategy, but a lot of it, especially more so than in any other type of draft, comes down to the people in your league and knowing their tendencies and what they, you know, what they tend to go for and how aggressive they tend to be. Like, that's, that's all stuff that you have to keep in mind. Like, you know, I think it's, it's beat on every time we do a salary cap draft with him. He's going to try to get two of the first, two or three of the first round guys.
Starting point is 00:36:39 He just does that every time. And it's, you know, that's one of the things you start to notice trends with people when you draft with them. It's interesting talking about how it affects you psychologically and just, you know, being in touch with your own. the way your emotions are going to play out over the course of those four hours because it's exhausting for me too. I mean, there will come a point in every single salary cap draft where I hate this whole process. I think the world is ending because I either I couldn't bring myself to bid a dollar more on a player.
Starting point is 00:37:25 who I hadn't really planned for, but the price was just so good. And so I'm like, I don't know. And I don't bid on him or I do bid on him and win him. And it's like, crap, now what do I do? My plan is falling apart. I didn't budget for this. And there's always a moment like that. And I think the key for me in those moments.
Starting point is 00:37:50 So, like, it's different. like the way, like you have trouble controlling your impulses, Chris, and me, it's like, when it doesn't go according to plan, how do I improvise? You know? And that's where it gets stressful for me. And it never goes exactly according to plan. It never, I've never had a salary cap draft where I've perfectly allocated all of my dollars for maximum efficiency, you know?
Starting point is 00:38:21 And I never will because there's no way to. anticipate how every player who's nominated is going to play out. You know, so you can always look back and like the example I gave earlier, oh, I went 32 on Aeronado and I could have had Riley for that amount. Well, you just don't know. I mean, Manny Machado and Raphael Devers both went for near 40 before that Aeronado did happen. And so it was reasonable to anticipate Riley would go for the same amount. And it just didn't work.
Starting point is 00:38:51 And you just never know. And you can never know. And you can't beat yourself up. over that. You have to, at least if you are wired more like me, you have to have, you need to have like, you need to be able to compartmentalize. You need to kind of have tunnel vision and not worry so much about what could have been if you had done X or Y differently. Yeah. No, I think that's very well said. Again, salary cap drafts. I love them. There's a lot of strategy that goes into these types of into this format and everyone is different. You can't just say,
Starting point is 00:39:27 oh, well, this player went for this much in this draft. Corby and Carroll went for $25. That means I should expect to spend $25. Maybe you'll get them for 18. Maybe you'll get them for 20. That's why it's really hard to put out salary cap values too because, again, just every draft is so, so different. This is like therapy. Like, Scott, do you want to go sit on the, lay on the couch? I feel like we're working through some stuff here. I'm sure you can just take it. take that microphone and slide on over to the couch over there. Scott, plug it in and just talk away while you're laying down. Yeah, I could just kick back. Yeah, why not? Get it all off my chest. Anywho, there are some other things that we want to get to. Again, I think we could do an entire week's worth
Starting point is 00:40:05 of content just on salary cap drafts. But let's take our final break here and we'll be back on Fantasy Baseball today. Before I get into some news and notes, we have a really fun announcement. I probably should have mentioned this earlier, but don't worry. I'll mention it in a future podcast as well. Fantasy baseball today is a finalist in the baseball category for the sports podcast awards. It's an awesome thing to be a part of. We're obviously stoked to be a part of it. We're going up against some big names, and it is a voting system, which means that we need your help.
Starting point is 00:40:36 You can scan the QR code in the top right corner if you're watching on video or find the link in the podcast or YouTube description. You'll need to quickly create an account on their site, which I know it's annoying. I'm sorry. It takes less than a minute. I did it myself. And then vote for fantasy baseball today.
Starting point is 00:40:54 Voting ends April 6th, and we appreciate your help. Some news and notes, Jose Cantana, will indeed be out until at least July with a stress fracture in his rib cage. David Peterson through four no-hit innings with five strikeouts on Tuesday. His slider velocity was up almost three miles per hour. And that comes one or two days after Tyler McGill
Starting point is 00:41:13 had an awesome start. Do you guys have a lean here? Because frankly, whoever wins that job between Peterson or McGill, could have decent sleeper value for fantasy. Yeah, I tend to lean McGill. I think he's shown a little more upside, but I think both of them are interesting,
Starting point is 00:41:33 you know, late round flyer types. And, you know, we've still got two weeks of spring training left, so there might be room for both of them. You know, how these things go. We don't know how Codai Senga. You know, he's, it seems like a minor issue with the finger, but it could be delayed. So, you know, it's, I say keep both of them on your radar, but I would lean McHill.
Starting point is 00:41:53 Brewer's manager, Craig Counsel, said the team will, quote, go slow in working Garrett Mitchell back from his right hamstring injury. The team is apparently aiming for March 21st as a return date, which if he returns next week, I think he'll still be good for opening day, but we'll see with Garrett Mitchell. Andris Munoz is set to make his spring debut on Friday. He was delayed due to off-season foot surgery, but looks like he should be. good to go. Tiger's Beatwriter apologies if you're listening. I'm going to butcher this name. Cody Stavangagen? That's what we'll go with. Belize
Starting point is 00:42:27 Alex Lang is the most likely closer candidate to begin the season, which we suspected, but it's nice to read it from a beat writer as well. Kyle Finnegan was told early in spring that he could be used in more of a fireman role rather than being limited to the ninth inning. Hunter Harvey and
Starting point is 00:42:43 Alex Colome were mentioned by Bobby Blanco of Masen as two names that could see save chances, Scott, are you buying this with the Nationals bullpen? I mean, I think Finnegan's still the guy to have. Usually the one in that fireman role still gets the majority of the save chances. It's just that he doesn't. He isn't always preserved for the ninth. But it's not what you want to hear, particularly coming from a team that isn't going to have that many save chances to begin with. And I wasn't really counting on Finnegan as a late round option for saves.
Starting point is 00:43:19 I like somebody like Lang, Alex Lang Moore, for instance. I always want to say Andrew Lang. Remember Andrew Lang? Spelled the name differently, Lang, but, all right, center from the early 90s. Anyway, I don't. Yeah. You were still in diapers then, weren't you? Early 90s, probably.
Starting point is 00:43:41 Yeah, I think that's fair. A couple of news items here. Brian Dela Cruz could be squeezed off the opening day roster. Wow, how things have changed. It's not great. Yeah, I mean, I think part of it's just Jesus doesn't have options. And he's having a really good spring for what it's worth. He's run a lot.
Starting point is 00:43:57 I think he has three steals. So, you know, we could do the Hazu Sanchez sleeper thing one more time, Frank. Hey, I got him in the Scott White Dynasty League. So you know I'm on board with Jesus Sanchez. Of course, the Marlins recently signed Yuli Gurriel and Jose, Iglesias, so that's part of the reason they have this roster crunch as of now. Justin Turner is scheduled to take batting practice Friday. He was hit in the face with a pitch last weekend and required 16 stitches as a result.
Starting point is 00:44:24 Jose Trevino said Wednesday that he's dealing with some inflammation in his sprained right wrist, but is very confident he'll be available for opening day. Mark Melanson is likely to open the regular season on the IL due to a right shoulder injury. All right, one of seven different saves, for the Arizona Diamondback, so it's one less name we have to worry about. Performance is worth mentioning recently. Lars Neupar in the WBC 6 for 14 with two steals playing for Japan. I'm starting to wonder, will he run a little bit this year?
Starting point is 00:44:56 74th percentile in sprint speed last season. That's pretty exciting for Lars Neupar. Garrett Whitlock made his spring debut, two hitless relief innings, three strikeouts to one walk. Anthony Volpey, Scott, you mentioned the game that he had reached base three times, another stolen base, a run, an RBI, was the leadoff hitter on Wednesday. If he makes the team, and he's playing shortstop, there's a non-zero chance that Volpe is leading off for the Yankees, which is crazy to think about.
Starting point is 00:45:25 It would make a lot of sense looking at a skill set. He draws, walks at a high rate. I think most of the time I've seen him in the lineup for the Yankees that's been in the lead-off spot this spring. He had 50 steals in the minors last year. I don't know why this hasn't been something that's phased out. It's like an old school thing that's remained where, okay, we need our leadoff hitter to be a base dealer. I feel like base dealers should bat behind the power hitters because that's the stretch of the lineup where you're going to need to manufacture runs.
Starting point is 00:45:58 Like if you're batting them in front of the power hitters, then what's the incentive to run? You just might run into an out. I don't know. I feel like that needs to change, but there doesn't seem to be much momentum. for it. So yeah, the fact that Volpe steals a lot of bases helps his chances of batting lead off. And lastly, Justin Verlander
Starting point is 00:46:17 threw five, one-hit innings with eight strikeouts to just one walk, 12 swinging strikes on 71 pitches. He was going up against a WBC depleted Cardinals team, but the guy looks like he's in mid-season form. I think Justin Verlander is going to be just fine. ADP risers
Starting point is 00:46:33 and followers in March. So how did I put this together? Using Rotowire Online Championship ADB, that's over at the NFBC. It's a certain format that they have. They are 12-team roto leagues with waiver wires. So this is probably the most common, you know, format,
Starting point is 00:46:50 at least comparatively to what other people are playing, that is available over at the NFBC. So it's comparing February to the first two weeks of March and seeing who has moved up, who has moved down. And we'll start with the biggest risers in the top 100. Corbyn Carroll, no surprise. He's up 16 spots from 69 to 52. Salvador Perez is up to pick 66.
Starting point is 00:47:12 He's slowly been rising. Andres Jimenez. I don't really know why, or if I believe this one? I mean, I guess it's happening. But he's moved up about eight spots to pick 77. Kenley Jansen, I feel like I've seen him slip more as well. O'Neill Cruz, I think that name makes sense. He's up to pick 60.
Starting point is 00:47:29 So I think a lot of the times we see O'Neill Cruz go in the fifth round of a 12-team league. Chris, are there any names or prices here that seem prohibitive for you? I know during yesterday's draft, you said, look, if Corby and Carroll is going to be a fourth or even fifth round pick, I'm just probably not going to wind up with him. Yeah, like, I think there's a lot to like about him. I have him ranked 64th, so I'm certainly not out on Corby and Carroll, even at this price. But it certainly probably means that more often than not, and I would say much more often than not, I'm not going to draft Corby and Carol. And hey, that's your only one of 12 people. Only one of them can get Corby and Carol.
Starting point is 00:48:08 in draft, so that's not really saying much. But yeah, there are probably not going to be many situations where Corby and Carroll is currently the top player on my cue as my pick is up. It's going to be someone else. That's a little bit frustrating. There will probably be a point where I have to reach for Corby and Carol to make sure I get him. The problem is, as we talked about the other day, I think on Monday's show, you can kind to start throwing ADP out once you get about a week away from the start of the season.
Starting point is 00:48:38 I'm thinking about like podcast listeners league for the people league, leagues where by nature the people playing in these leagues are going to be people who are really into fantasy baseball. I mean, Carmen Carroll might go in like the third round in some of those leagues. I think our last mock draft. I think he went 34 or something, right? Yeah, he was in the third round.
Starting point is 00:49:00 So like, I have Corby and Carroll the highest of the three of us for Roto. I'm 56th overall. and I am I'm to the point where I would like I think if he I think his best case scenario is higher probability than the average rookie
Starting point is 00:49:21 and I think his best case scenario has him putting up at least second round numbers and so I want to reach for him I'm willing to but there's always somebody who's willing to reach a little bit more for him and so I think I've only gotten him in a head-to-head points League so far among those that were playing out. That survey I did on social media on Twitter and Facebook last week, Corbyn Carroll,
Starting point is 00:49:47 it was actually a tie between Corbyn Carroll and O'Neill Cruz for who's your must-have player for this year. They got the most two responses, those two. And the thing I would just keep in mind is there's a lot to like about Corbyn Carroll. I think he's a really talented player. One, he's still relatively unperu. of an 115 plate appearances at the major league level. Also, he plays in a really tough home park.
Starting point is 00:50:13 And so while I really like his skill set and I like his chances of getting there, the home park is an obstacle. It's not a huge obstacle. It's certainly not an insurmountable one. But Chase Field is one of the toughest home parks in baseball since they introduced the humidor, especially for power. Remember, they've got the 20-foot yellow line. the yellow line 20 feet off the ground and center field.
Starting point is 00:50:37 So it's a, it's a little pricey for me. Yeah. What about the biggest fallers in the top 100? No surprise with these names. Carl Sordaun, Joe Muskrove, Yordaun Alvarez, down to 14.6. Scott, are you buying at that cost? That would be an early second round pick. Oh, gosh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:57 Yeah. I mean, I'm still taking him ahead of mooky bets. I'm, he's probably, I think he's like my number nine player right now, Jordan Alvarez. And he dropped, I dropped them from seven to nine. But still, yeah, that's, I'm not that worried about the hand. Just modest amount of worry. All right, the biggest risers in the 100 to 200 range.
Starting point is 00:51:21 Jordan Walker, no surprise. Again, this is from February to the first two weeks of March. He's up 63 spots from 186 to pick 123. Alec Bohm, interesting. A couple of spring training home runs, that'll do it, huh? 16 spots to 183. Vaughn Grissom is up to 159. Jeffrey Springs is up to 153.
Starting point is 00:51:41 Chris Sale, up exactly around to 124, and I've seen him go even higher in some drafts. It's got a name on here that we haven't really talked about much recently, but Vaughn Grissom, when we got 15 spots to 159, I think this is just people coming to terms with the fact that he's going to be the starting shortstop for the Atlanta Braves, and now that we know that for sure, people are reacting and drafting him like that.
Starting point is 00:52:09 Yeah, that's probably it. That's probably it. People seem, if there's any doubts about playing time, especially in an FBC where you don't have, you don't have any IL spots, so that makes your bench spots more precious, and it's hard to just stash away prospective options there. Harder to do that.
Starting point is 00:52:29 people seem really disinclined to invest in playing time concerns. And so I never really bought the idea that the Braves let Swanson walk and signed nobody to replace them so that Orlando Arcia could be their starter. That just doesn't seem like the sort of thing a championship caliber club does. So I was always on board with Fong Grissom, but I think now everybody's coming around to the reality of that. And by the way, just, I mean, the same thing with Miguel Vargas. I know he's not on here.
Starting point is 00:53:02 I don't think he is, is he? Oh, he's on the rundown, Scotty. Don't you worry. Okay. I won't jump ahead then. I mean, I don't know if we're going to get to him, but he's moved up to pick 200 at the NFBC, but in the drafts that we're doing,
Starting point is 00:53:14 he's still going way before that. So sometimes, you know, 50 spots. Just since he returned to swinging a bat, he's gone from, he's now 195th when his, you know, total ADP, Miguel Vargas is more like 250, 37 on NFBC. So that's another situation where I think,
Starting point is 00:53:41 again, I was never really doubting he was the Dodgers second baseman. Even when he couldn't swing a bat, they were having him play second base so that he'd be up to speed defensively. But I think just by virtue of, oh, he can't swing a bat, it created this concern where,
Starting point is 00:53:54 oh, maybe he doesn't win the job. And now that's going away because he's swinging a bat and swinging it quite well. Four more risers inside of the top 200. Lars Nupar and Riley Green expected a lot of people talking about them this time of year. Both are having either good springs or World Baseball Classic performance for Lars Nupar. Lars is up to 171 and Riley Green is up to 191. Taylor Ward is up nine spots to 106.
Starting point is 00:54:22 I think we're kind of pushing it now with Taylor Ward. He's getting up there. Pablo Lopez up nine spots to 172. So Chris, three names here for sure that I know you like, Neupar, Riley Green, Pablo Lopez. Taylor Ward, I wrote him up in Sleepers 1.0 like two months ago because he was going to pick 125. If you move up two rounds of value that early in the draft,
Starting point is 00:54:43 it actually matters a lot. So I think we're kind of, we're pushing limits here on Taylor Ward and the ADP. Yeah, I mean, there's, it sort of depends on what you value, right? Because you've got this pretty long, track record for a 28-year-old player of him not being particularly good, including both the majors and the minors. Now, the Major League track record before last season, somewhat limited, but still you're talking about about 160 games, where he was like a mid-700s OPS bat. And for most of his minor league career, he was also that kind of hitter until, you know, kind of breaking out at 24, 25 in the PCL. So it's, I think there are reasons to like him. I removed him from my bus 2.0 column.
Starting point is 00:55:27 If he goes inside the top 100, that's where I start to, you know, definitely get a little, a little antsy about the price. I certainly wouldn't be taking him there. He's more like a 125 player for me. So it's more like where he was going before, I think is fine value. Now, I'm not saying I'm avoiding him, but there's always going to be someone who likes him more than I do. Biggest fallers inside of the top 250, expected name. Say a Suzuki down to 166. Harrison Bader 225. Adelberto Monisee 237. Mitch Hanninger down to 202. Tony Gonselin at 190.
Starting point is 00:56:05 Kyle Wright at 150. This group, I don't fully understand why they're dropping. It could just be the result of other names are moving up. Someone's got to drop, right? They're all injured, Frank. Is that true? Well, no, I'm talking this next group that I'm about to mention. The expected group are all injured.
Starting point is 00:56:19 Yeah. So this next group, I was kind of preview. The name's about to mention. Okay, you're previewing. Okay, sorry, my bad. All good. Andrew Heaney is down to 213. John Gray down to 215.
Starting point is 00:56:28 Javier Baez down to 282. And we saw that in the mock draft yesterday, Scott. You got him pretty late. Whitmeryfield down to 198. Oscar Gonzalez. Somebody, I like quite a bit, down to 206. You see any reason here, Scotty? So I was looking up where exactly I got Javier Baez
Starting point is 00:56:46 because I think it was much later than that. You know, one thing I will say, having the experience rooting for Puerto Rico during the World Baseball Classic is like, man, having Javier Baez on a team that you're rooting for really changes the experience of rooting for Javier Baez because I'm mostly like, he kind of
Starting point is 00:57:03 gets a bad rap. He's better than PIN's like, oh boy, I may have cursed him out on a couple swings tonight. His swing decisions are bad. Yeah, real bad stuff. I think this group, Andrew Heaney, John Gray, Javier Baez, Whitmeryfield, Oscar Gonzalez.
Starting point is 00:57:22 So they all, I guess the common thread there is just that they haven't given us anything to be excited about yet. I mean, like during off-season drafting before spring training started, you could make a case for them all to, to exceed their draft positions. So they were kind of preemptive sleepers, I guess. But now, like, they're not the guys making noise. Of the ones we had kind of pre-marked as sleepers, they're not the ones to,
Starting point is 00:57:55 they're not the ones doing anything to really capture everybody's imagination. So they're kind of just sagging relative to everyone else, is my guess. I don't know that that's fair. I don't know that that's a logical enough reason to fade them. But it makes some sense maybe as an explanation. I'll take John Gray and Oscar Gonzalez. So if those guys are falling, sure. I'll gobble that up.
Starting point is 00:58:21 Scott, yesterday you got Javier Baez I pick 192, so not far off. You know, 10 spots after this ADP, but he is a clear faller right now. A couple names I'm just going to shuffle through
Starting point is 00:58:32 and you guys tell me, yay or nay, if you're in on the new price tag. Jared Kelnick at 218. He's moved up about 70 spots compared to February. That's fine. I think it's a relatively low probability bet,
Starting point is 00:58:45 but it's fine. Yeah, I agree. There might still. be some outfielder I prefer at that point, but there might not. Alex Lang at 192 just inside the top 200.
Starting point is 00:59:00 Boy, it's hard to pull these numbers out of the blue without knowing what others at that position are there at the same point. So 192 is in between Paul Seewald and Jose LeClerc, generally. So that sounds about right for Alex Lang. Sure.
Starting point is 00:59:16 Okay. Trisand Casas at 216. It's great. Yeah, I like him more than Kelnik, so I'm going to say, I'm on board for that. I've got him at 181. Ezekiel Tovar at 224. I have a feeling, Scott, you're smashing the draft button. I have them more like 164. Yep, I've got him 163.
Starting point is 00:59:36 Nice. I think Tovar, as I've said multiple times, is maybe the most undervalued player in drafts this year. Zach Eflin is up to 257. I don't understand. Like, the fantasy community. keeps like doing like Zach Eflin Sleeper and like
Starting point is 00:59:56 I think it's the Tampa Bay raise too Chris what but like what is it in his track record that makes us think we're 700 innings into his major league career 413 397 417 404 there's ZRAs over the last four seasons he's had injury
Starting point is 01:00:14 issues I think he's one of those players who rates out pretty well by like the various stuff metrics And so maybe that's it. But I just like, at some point, the results are what they are. And I think like a 29-year-old with 700 major league innings, like probably is what he is. How about Oscar Coloss? It looks like he's getting closer to locking up that starting right field job for the White Sox.
Starting point is 01:00:39 He's up to 265, which still sounds too late. It does. I don't know why I'm not. I think I've kind of like gravitated more toward Garrett Mitchell and Jake Fraley lately. So that's kind of, you can't have them all, you know? So I keep missing out on Oscar Colas. But Colos will look great this spring and I probably need to, probably need to stop doing that.
Starting point is 01:00:59 The hype is growing for Reed Detmer's. He's up to 185, but I think for good reason. I am, I'm good with it. Added him to my breakouts 2.0 that just came out on the site. I think, you know, the big thing, I think we mentioned it on yesterday or the day before, but his velocity's up like two or three miles an hour in camp so far. and we already saw the breakout.
Starting point is 01:01:21 I mean, he had a 304 ERA or whatever it was after coming back from the minors last season with an even better FIP. So I think there's only room to grow. There's a ceiling on how good he can be because they're going to use a six-man rotation. And he'll, you know, won't give you two start weeks and probably maxes out at like 150 innings. But it could be really, really good innings. I think him and Patrick Sandoval are both definitely, you know, rising for me. Last name here on the list, Hunter Brown is up to 188 with the injury to Lance McCullors, though McCullors has started a throwing program, so I don't know, maybe he's back at some point in
Starting point is 01:02:00 May or June. I'm speculating. Scott, what do you think about the price tag Hunter Brown inside the top 200? I kind of think McCullors is going to be back before then for what it's worth. It sounds like a, it was really downplaying the injury the other day. He would have reason to, I understand, but yeah I'm a little surprised Hunter Brown's climb this much he's he's been shaky with the control this spring and that was the big knock on him in the miners it was surprising that he came up throwing strikes as regularly as he did a much higher strike percentage
Starting point is 01:02:36 than he had in the miners and you know obviously over a much smaller sample so that that could rear its ugly head and Brown leaves everybody high and dry And I think it's especially surprising given that obviously we're talking about roto ADP here. So the relief pitcher eligibility doesn't even come into play for Brown. I understand him going 188 overall in a points league where you get that advantage of slotting him in the RP spot. But I don't know. There are definitely pitchers in that range that I would prefer to Brown.
Starting point is 01:03:07 Have you considered that his delivery looks a lot like Justin Verlanders? I had no clue. Yeah. It's a big deal. They keep calling a mini JV, right? I feel like like 20% of the hype around Hunter Brown is just that he kind of looks like Justin Verlander when he pitches. Remember when, who was it, Melki Cabrera first got called up for the Tigers? Was that it?
Starting point is 01:03:32 No, it was Avi Searle Garcia. Sorry, Avicel Garcia. And Joe Buck. Oh, it looked like Miguel Cabrera. Joe Buck said he might be the next Miguel Cabrera. Yikes. I mean, he was just doing it. natural broadcasting transition, like Miguel Cabrera probably came up to the plate and then
Starting point is 01:03:51 they have very similar body types. Yeah, but it just kind of like followed him around through the rest of his career inflating his stock. It was a weird, a weird moment in time. And now he plays on the Marlins. So now we know why the Marlins gave him that contract. It's all it's all come. It's all come full circle. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for watching and listening fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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