Fantasy Baseball Today - Elly De La Cruz Does It All Again! Plus Monday's Waiver-Wire Targets (8/6 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

Episode Date: August 6, 2024

Elly De La Cruz put on a show few players can compete with Monday night. Chris Towers and Scott White talk about where he ranks among all Fantasy players these days. Plus, are we buying Sean Manaea's recent strikeout binge? What about Bobby Witt and Luis Robert's diverging paths since the All-Star break? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello and welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. I'm Chris Towers.

We're here with Scott White. It is August 6th, just after midnight. We're here to recap Monday's action, talk about some post-all-Star break trends, whether we buy or sell them. A shamaniah for real and much more. Although, not too much more. Going to be honest, one of the least interesting days of the baseball season so far from a fantasy perspective. Don't undersell the show. We're just starting.

But it's going to be a great show. Bad day of baseball, great day of fantasy baseball discussion and camaraderie. upcoming. Pull it back. And we are going to start with, oh my goodness, gracious players of the night. And I'll go first this time because Scott,

your pick ties into a little segment I want to do along with it. So I will start with Ellie De La Cruz who just had one of those days that just reminds you of how different he is than your average baseball player. He went four for five. The fifth plate appearance,

he reached on an error. So five trips to the plate, five times on base. He had three runs, three RBI, two home runs, two doubles, four padded balls over 108 miles per hour for L.A. De La Cruz here. And you remember at the end of May, he was pretty bad that month. And we had a lot of conversations about, oh, did we get two over our skis after his really good, April? Is he going to be inconsistent? Is this going to be the kind of guy he is?

well, since May 1st, he is hitting 278 with a 350 on base percentage, a 557 slugging percentage, a 30 homer 77 stolen base pace, and he has cut his strikeout rate to 27.8% since May 1st, a downright fine strikeout rate for a guy with his kind of skill set. when we did a redraft of the first round Ellie was definitely a first rounder but I'm not sure exactly how high he is. Is he just a top six pick if he continues this? Is he a top four pick?

I think I had him seventh. I think I had him seventh I'd have to line him up again to see if if he's surpassed anybody there. But the commentary surrounding Ellie de la Cruz has been exhausting I would say because there were a lot of there were a lot of just concentric

victory lapse. And counter victory lapse. Yeah. And I know a lot of people listening, maybe they don't even know what I'm talking about. It's very online. The whole fantasy baseball commentary world we're referring to. And yes, fantasy baseball is an online game, but there's

a difference between playing a game online and being online. In the parlance of our time. Yeah, exactly. And it's kind of what I was saying about Anthony Volpe yesterday, where it's just like, you know, Let them cook.

To use another online expression, let them cook because they're not fully cooked yet. And there's going to be ups and downs. It's baseball. Is this your first time following baseball? A real tough game. Yeah, it turns out. A real tough game. So I haven't been on the Ellie de la Cruz is the best player in fantasy kick.

And I haven't been on the Ellie De La Cruz as a bust kick. I think Ellie De La Cruz is a bust kick. I think Ellie Dela Cruz is really good, and he'll probably be a first round pick next year. All right. Let's move on to your, oh, my goodness, gracious player of the night. And I'm going to lump, you're going with Sean Mania. I'm going to lump him in in a little segment. I like to call, okay, what's going on here?

And we'll start with Sean Mania. We're also going to talk about David Festa, Jeff McNeil, and James Paxton, who all had interesting performances on Monday. Take it away on Sean. Tom and I don't want to steal your breadstick. This was the Olive Garden breadstick of the day, I think. And it was also one of my top sleeper pitchers for this week. The one I used is the little cover photo, actually, on the article.

So everybody gets to see how smart I am for picking Sean Manaya. Not that there was a whole lot of reasoning that went into it. He had a couple pretty good matchups. He was coming off one of the best starts of his career, an 11-strikeout two-hit effort against the twins. And he followed it up with one pretty good. much just like it here at St. Louis, Sean Mania, seven shutout innings,

10 strikeouts, 6 it's loud this time, no walks. He went from having 23 swinging strikes in that twin start to just 13 in this start. But it was a really good start. Two really good starts in a row, back-to-back double-digit strikeout efforts, and if you

have that stat handy from yesterday, that makes Sean Mania... He is one of 10 pitchers this season with consecutive 10 strikeout games. Oh, that's the even a brand new stat. And one of 16 pitchers with at least three games of double-digit strikeouts overall. Because remember, he had one back in like May, I think, with 10 strikeouts.

So, yeah. Weird. Weird company that Shamanai is keeping. And he's 32 years old. And he's not a 32-year-old who just entered our line of sight here in fantasy. Sean Mania has been around a while and has been pretty average for his career. There have been times in the past where we got excited about him maybe turning the corner, but then he pretty much regressed to being Sean Manaya.

And so I think that's ultimately what's going to happen here. He has made a change here in his last couple starts. He's basically ditched the change up and ditched the cutter, really focused in on the sinker, sweeper, and four-themed fastball. which getting rid of the changeups especially good news. That pitch was getting knocked around for him. So that might explain the bump here. But I do think it's just a bump,

and I don't think it's a transformation for Sean Minaya. If you want to ride him as a hot hand, you know, like I said, I had him as a sleeper pitcher for this week. He has a second start coming up if you're a daily lineup league. I think that's fine. But I don't know that you want to count on Sean Minaya

rest of season necessarily. Yeah, I kind of view Sean Mania as worth rostering until he has a start that you definitely don't want to use him for. And then I think you can just get rid of him. Like if you hang on to him, I think he'll be fine. Like probably an ERA under four decent but not incredible strikeout numbers despite the past two starts. I mostly agree with you. I might even be a little lower on Shamanaya.

But there have also been several pitchers that I've been lower on in this caliber. And it's made me look pretty bad all season. though we'll talk about Brady Singer shortly because sometimes it works out the skepticism. Let's talk about a couple of those other guys before we get to our first break. David Festa, really good start against the Cubs today. Only five innings, but two earned runs,

two hits, zero and runs, two walks, nine strikeouts. He's an interesting player because he's not like a huge high-end prospect, although he is six foot six and has elite extension on his pitch release. but what's interesting is despite throwing comfortably in the high 90s, fastball is not really a swing and miss pitch. He had like a 18% swing and miss rate with this pitch, or whiff rate, a twist per swing. Entering this start,

just one swing and miss with the four seamer today, but change up and slider were really good, generating eight and five whiffs respectively. Cubs are a beatable matchup, I would say. 384 ERA, but also 104, strikeouts in 72.2 innings at AAA. First time we've seen that kind of strikeout upside from him in the majors. What do you think about David Festa? Is he worth adding?

It depends on the depth of the league. Yeah, three encouraging starts, albeit short starts. This one was the longest at five innings. He's also put during his time in the majors only 30% of batted balls on the ground. So it's a dangerous way to pitch. Yeah. Obviously, it leaves you vulnerable to hits if it's line drives or home runs if it's fly balls. The twins have a type.

Yeah. There's some Bailey Ober here for sure. Right. Right. I mean, Joe Ryan's fly ball pitcher, Simian Woods Richardson. And now David Festa. I think the strikeout upside is, it exists. So that makes him interesting.

But with a lot of downside, too. So if he was going deeper into starts, I'd be a little more. more enthusiastic about picking him up, but since he's not, it seems really speculative to me. You're counting on him sustaining what he's done in his last three starts and also taking a leap with the workload. It could happen. And a 15-team league, I might take a flyer on him, but anything shallower than that, you know, if I'm prioritizing, I'm probably picking up Manaya, seeing how long I can ride this

out rather than picking up Festa. I do think Mania is like 90% rostered. Oh, is he? In CBS leagues. It might not be quite that high, but the last time I looked, it was shockingly high. 85% rostered.

People picking them up for the two-star week. Two-star week, yeah. That's a big part of it, I think. Okay, what's going on here with James Paxton? Quality start against a pretty good Royals lineup, six innings pitched his second start for the Red Sox. First, quality start since June, generated just seven swings and misses,

but he did lead with his curveball in this one, throwing 46% of the time, probably isn't a bad thing, fading the foreseamer especially. Is there anything here? I mean, I've pretty much given up on James Paxson, but I wanted to get it out there. Yeah, probably not.

Probably not. The curveball increases notable. The Red Sox have been pretty proactive and pretty successful in tweaking pitchers arsenals this year. So maybe it could go somewhere, but I'd like to see the whiffs, the strikeouts, follow.

I mean, just the fact that he's throwing more curve balls. Okay, it happened to be a decent start this time, but I'm not sure in a way that I trust is sustainable. So I'm not particularly compelled to make a move on Paxton. Okay, what's going on with Jeff McNeil? home run again on Monday, three more hard hit balls. He just hit two night, 289 with an 888 OPS in the month of July.

He has five home runs since the All-Star break. He had just five the whole season before that. But his expected woe over the past 100 plate appearance is still just 321, which is an improvement, but is still pretty mediocre. Where are you at on Jeff McNeil? Well, you mentioned the five home runs since the All-Star break. also batting 364 since the All-Star break.

And Mike Petriello of MLB.com wrote an interesting article the other day about four hitters who have improved their bat speed. They've gotten it. They were light swingers before guys who were selling out for contact. But since the All-Star break, they've gotten it up to 70 miles per hour, their bat speed. which is not quite in the good range, but it's a significant improvement for them. It gives them the chance of delivering power.

They're swinging harder, basically. And it's amazing that it coincides with the All-Star break. I don't know if they all got on a Zoom call or something and just decided they're going to get this plan. Is that Anthony Volpey, Mason Wynn? You didn't mention Wyn in the article, but Anthony Volpe was one. Gavin Lux, who I'm sure will get to, will we get to him?

I don't have him in the notes but we can talk about him Well we can get into it in a minute then So Anthony Volpe Gavin Luxe Victor Robles who we've been scratching our head about and Jeff McNeil

And this is This is sort of the same change That was written about For Stephen Kwan At the start of the year Just swinging harder hoping to do more damage And it's worked out for Kwan

Some of these guys Maybe get a little too Contact-minded And sacrifice their ability to do damage. So obviously we've seen Jeff McNeil hit for power in the past. I don't think it's

so crazy that he could do it again. There is a bit of a roster crunch for the Mets after they acquired Jesse Winker and they're going to get Starling Marte back from the IL soon. McNeil

spent some of his time in the outfield. They've had Jose Iglesias playing some second base. I don't know how long that's going to last. The fact McNeil could play the end field probably means

he's going to stay in the lineup as long as he keeps this going. I'm not going to call him a priority

ad or anything, but I think it's possible he could he could have rekindled something that made him a

must-start player in the past. So at least keep an eye on it. And if I could get into Gavin Lux for

a minute since he was one of the others he went. Let me see the updated stats that Dodgers game is complete now.

There's two for three. Two for three with a double. That makes Gavin Lux since the All-Star break again. He's batting 4-17 with three homers and six doubles. And he's started every game but one since then. So he's been playing against the lefties as well. And obviously we've been waiting for get Gavin Lux to break through for a long time,

put up big numbers in his minor league career. It was like a consensus top five prospect when he debuted. And, you know, maybe he just got, again, it's the start of a trend, so I don't want to jump to too big of a conclusion, but in my head, if I'm mapping out a story in my head, it makes sense to me that Gavin Lux,

or that any hitting prospect could hit defensively, you know? Sure. Like compromise their ability to do damage just because they don't want to mess up. And we'll see how it goes for Gavin looks, but this has been one of the most productive stretches he's ever had. All right.

That's going to do it for the first part of fantasy baseball today. We're going to take a quick break. We'll be back. News and notes and more post-all-Star Break trends that we're going to talk buy or sell next on fantasy baseball today. All right. We're back. And let's talk some news and notes for Monday.

And we'll start off. Freddie Freeman was activated from the emergency family leave list Monday and was. back in the lineup. That's fantastic news. I believe he got a hit in his first plate appearance. Definitely got a hit at some point today. So that was great to see. He got a standing ovation.

Guys on the Phillies were given him a hand. That was great to see. Gabriel Moreno left Monday's game during the second inning with a strained groin. It's not clear if he's going to require an aisle stint, but I think we should probably expect it. RJ Anderson of CBSports.com noted that growing strains tend to lead to around 28.

days of missed action on average. It's not every single one. Some will be shorter, some will be longer, but wouldn't be surprised at Gammer and Moreno does miss some times. That's a bummer. Mason Miller through 15 pitches in a live batting practice session Monday and is expected to be activated at some point during the team's current series could be as soon as Tuesday. And he'll be right back into the closer role for the A's.

White Langford returned to the Rangers lineup Monday after missing a few games with back tightness. I love when I notice a typo, a do game. No, a few games with back tightness. I was about to go in there and correct it myself. I appreciate it. Brooks Lee missed his second game in a row Monday with a shoulder tight soreness. He was able to do some work on field before the game. So it sounds like it might not be too serious.

But given that he's been struggling and Carlos Correa is probably coming back from his injury pretty soon, might not be long before we see Brooks Lee back in the minors, unfortunately. Ranger Suarez threw a successful bullpen session Monday. He's eligible to come off the IL this week, but it sounds like it'll probably be next week. This one, I don't know if this was surprising. Hazel's Lazzardo dealing with that stress reaction to his back, at least six weeks away from throwing.

And we've got less than eight weeks left in the season. So Hazel's Lazzardo is done for the season. Yeah, I just put together my IL stash rankings, the top 45. and I did not even bother to include him. They haven't officially ruled him out for the season, but there's just no way. If he's not throwing for six weeks,

I don't know. Maybe he makes a relief appearance late. That's all you can hope for. Jacob Wilson took batting practice Monday. He's working his way back from that hamstring injury and is making progress, but the A's are going to be patient with one of their top prospects who,

remember, got hurt in his very first trip to the plate at the major league level. That was unfortunate. Miguel Rojas is ready to return from the IL and could come back in the coming days. Dodgers are probably going to have to make some decisions. They already waived DFAed, Kevin Bizio today,

but Mookie Betts is going to be back next week. So it'll be interesting to see how they balanced their roster and lineup. Sayas Suzuki was held out of the lineup Monday with next siftness, but he is expected back in Tuesday. Ian Hap did return to the lineup after missing Sunday's game. Byron Bucksdon got the day off on Monday after colliding with the wall on Sunday. It doesn't sound like it's a serious issue. They said it was a precautionary move on Sunday,

but that's something to keep an eye on. Is Reynaldo Lopez worth stashing? He was placed on the 15-day I-L retroactive to August 2nd. Remember, he hadn't pitched since August 26th or 28th or something. You can only retroactively put a guy on the IL three days. So that's why it's more recent than that. but he was initially listed his day to day, so it makes you think maybe he'll be back relatively soon, but given that I was already expecting the regression and we started to see it, I think I'd be able to drop him.

Braves beat writer, David O'Brien, said it wasn't a setback that they just wanted to not force the issue and work in a little rest time because they were already looking to preserve his innings anyway. Yeah. So I think it'll be a minimal stay. I think he'll come back and make six starts or whatever. So I have him pretty high on the aisle stash list,

Rinaldo Lopez. Not quite in the must stash category, but there's only like... More like the sideburns. Yeah, exactly. Let me see exactly where I have him. There's 14 in the mustache category. I have Rinaldo Lopez 17th in those rankings.

Ironically, Spencer Strider, not in the mustache category. Not, no. Good point. All right, that's the last one. Okay. All right. Tristan Beck recovering from surgery for an aneurysm in his right arm back in spring training is expected to begin a rehab assignment Thursday. Remember, he was competing and looked like he had a job in the Giants rotation before this issue.

But it sounds like he's going to return in the bullpen. Bryce Elder was recalled and will return to the rotation for the Braves Tuesday against the Brewers. He was solid in his most recent start. It was also against Milwaukee. they're a pretty good matchup these days but he also has a 5, 6, 7 ERA for the season and that doesn't feel like

a fluke, so you'd have to be pretty desperate to start them against the Brewers, right? I mean, we'll see when we do the when we do the, what is it called at the end of the show? Streamers? A stream or not to stream? When we actually have the names to compare?

Because Elder Yeah, I mean, the ERA is what it is, but it's it's one of those situations where if he throws six shutout out innings, it doesn't really surprise you. Yeah. Just because of the profile. One note that I saw Jackson Holiday talked about how while he was in AAA, he reworked his batting stance.

And he credits that with the early success he's had in the second stint in the majors. He's been hitting a ton of hard hit balls, two home runs already in like six games. It's been very promising production from him. The White Sox promoted. pitching prospect Kai Bush to start Monday against the athletics, gave up three runs and four innings of work, five walks, three strikeouts, which isn't terribly surprising for a guy with a 616 ERA since getting called up to AAA. There might be something here, but he has work to do. And obviously pitches in a terrible situation.

Yeah, I've always, Kai Bush has always been a head scratcher for me as a prospect. he was with the Angels prior to this year and sometimes shows it pretty high in the prospect rankings, but he's not a great bat misser, not a great control guy, not a big ground ball guy. I'm not really seeing it.

And his debut obviously didn't give us much to latch on to. Yeah, and just you've got to be pretty special to matter if you're on the White Sox at this point because 21 games in a row now. They have lost. I mean, you wouldn't have them favored in any of their remaining games, right? So, yeah.

They will eventually win a game again. Probably. It'll be before the season ends. Yeah. In fact, let me look at the little schedule here. Ooh, they only have five games this week. I was going to predict they win a game this week, but I'm not going to. Don't win a game next week.

You don't like their chances of winning one of their next four. Things are bleak. On the south side. North side, I can't remember which one they are. They are the south side. Yeah, the south side. Bruce Star Gratterol was activated from the aisle Monday after missing four months with shoulder inflammation. Blake Trinan was sent or is expected to be placed on the aisle with left hip discomfort.

The Dodgers did get a save on Monday. And Anthony Bienda got the eighth inning after working the ninth for the save on Sunday. And Daniel Hudson got his eight. got his eighth save of the season on Monday. Michael Kopec pitched the seventh. I don't know if Evan Phillips was available. This just seems like one of the messiest closer situations for a good team, right?

I mean, it should be, it should be Hudson's. I like that he got this save right after I dropped him in the Memorial Magazine League. So that was, that was very kind. Yeah. although I did add Calvin Foshae and Hunter Harvey. So I think, and I got a bunch of closers. I got too many closers.

I don't know why people aren't picking up closers in that league. It's a Roto League for goodness six. But I would have liked to have Daniel Hudson because he could be a great closer if they just let him do it. All right, Tyler O'Neill missed his third straight game with an illness, but he was available off the bench. So it seems like a good sign that he'll be back in the lineup on Tuesday.

Wilmore Flores is undergoing something called a next procedure on his right knee, which is a non-surgical procedure designed to clear up or repair tissue damage in the knee. Never heard of it before. And I have no idea how long he's going to be out. Not that it matters a ton for fantasy players, but, you know, it's another player in a, in a lineup that has a lot of guys who's out of the picture. Joey Gallo will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday. He's been out for a couple months with a hamstring injury. Not clear if he has a a role waiting for him with the Nationals. So I'm not sure we really need to spend any time thinking about Joey Gallo.

And that's going to do it for the news and notes. We're going to talk post-all-Star Break Trends and some more Monday night recap when we get back after this break. All right. Welcome back to fantasy baseball today. Let's talk some post-all-star break trends. And I think the best way to do it is I'm just going to come up on the fly with like a do you buy or sell this player as X. And you're going to tell me if you buy or sell that player as whatever thing I come up with off the top of my head. You're ready to go? That's a lot of pressure on you,

but I'm here for it. I have very little faith in myself. But let's see what happens. Tyler Fitzgerald homered again on Monday, giving him a league best 10 home runs since the all-star break. Catelle is second with nine. I believe he also homered on Monday. Vlad Jr. and Anthony Santander have eight each buy or sell Tyler Fitzgerald as a must roster player in all leagues. He is, I believe, shortstop and outfield eligible.

I don't see how I couldn't buy it right now given how insanely productive he's been, 11 home runs in his last 17 games. If you're asking me, will he be must roster rest of season? or if you're asking, no, how would you phrase it? If you put it, is Tyler Fitzgerald?

No, how would you put it? I'm not even good at coming up with a buy-sell statement. I don't think he'll be must-roster rest of season, okay? I'm not buying Tyler Fitzgerald. But he is must-roster right now. Right now. How could he not be? So is it just the strikeouts you don't buy?

The lack of quality contact. He has a 54% pull rate, which helps. That's very high. A 32% ground ball rate, which helps. That's very low. I'm surprised the fly ball rate is higher. I'm looking at the fan graphs page because you'd think, okay,

he could maximize that low quality contact on average with a high pull rate and a high fly ball rate. Maybe I'm splitting hairs there since the ground ball rate is low. But yeah, he's a guy who doesn't hit the ball

very hard on average. And strikes out a lot. It's very reminiscent of Zach Galloff, who's had a really hard time following up on his performance last year. So, I'm very skeptical of Tyler Fitzgerald long term. But if he was out there on waivers in any of my leagues,

I'd have to have to add him. So. Okay. Yeah. Luis Robert entering today, he went 0 for 4, but no strikeouts. Entering today, however, he had been striking out 52% of the time since the All-Star break. He is down to a 2-10 banning average. I saw a ton of comments in the chat during yesterday's

podcast about dropping Luis Robert. So buy or sell. Louise Robert is dropable even in a five-team outfielder league. Five outfielder league. Oh no. No. I sell. I want to bring, I couldn't bring myself to drop him in a three outfielder league, to be honest. I agree. Let me see. real quick what is point per game averages because obviously that's not even as better format. I'm going to guess it's really low because all the strikeouts

and just very poor team context. Well, I'm going to guess it's higher than you think since the home run pace and stolen base pace. They're both so good. Because it's 12 homers, 15 steals and just 58 games. Yeah. Let me see if I can look it up quickly enough.

No, I'm going to have to expand because he doesn't have enough total points from all the time he's missed. All right, it is 2.65 coming into Monday and to give you a comparison, that's already higher than I thought it be. So to give you a comparison,

2.65 is, uh, let's see, Jesse Winker is 2.58, George Springer 2.60. Uh, I think that Lordus Gurriel, 2.62. So we're not driving. dropping him.

Right. I mean, those are probably players you're not dropping. And this is with Louise Robert at his absolute worst. He's brought his

point per game average down to their level, a little higher than their level still. So yeah, I can't see myself dropping Louise Robert anywhere, though I have seen

some people wondering about that. Bobby Witt, Jr., has an 8.3% strikeout rate since the All-Star break. I mean, he's been

ridiculously hot. I think he had 44 hits in July. Buy or sell, Bobby Witt, Jr. is a top three pick in head-to-head points and Roto next season.

I wish I could pull up that article real quick to see if I had him there. Not that I can't change my mind. So definitely Roto. That's easy. Yeah, that's easy. The strikeout rate is so low that I'm going to buy it for points leagues too.

you might want Juan Soto more than Witt in a points league, so that might push him down a spot. You might. I don't even think it's a foregun. No, it's not a guarantee. But just to make the segment go faster, I'll say bye. Jackson Churio, since the All-Star break, is hitting 382 within a 993 OPS.

Buy or sell Jackson Churio has arrived as a must-start fan. fantasy outfielder for the next decade. For five years, we can't see that far into the future. A decade, that's bold. I mean, he's 20. Yeah, no, I know. It's just, it's unlike you to be so bold.

But you're not even speaking for yourself. So maybe I shouldn't put that on you. Jack Centurio must start. I am obviously just going top of mind here. And I don't actually have them any three outfielder leagues to speak from personal experience. But I stopped short of saying he's must start. So his last two weeks have been really good.

I mean, you say the numbers are what they are since the All-Star break. But since week four, he has three scoring periods where he scored 20 plus points. So it's trending a good direction. and maybe we'll look back and say, okay, this was the start of the breakthrough, but I'm not willing to commit to it yet. All right, Zander Bogartz hitting 429 with a 1039 OPS, if I'm doing that math in my head correctly.

Buy or sell, Zander Bogartz, is a top 12 second baseman the rest of the season. Top 12 second baseman. Uh, I, I think I'd buy that. It's easier to buy it in points. leagues than Roto because he got all those base dealers in Roto, which he is not really a base dealer.

So I might struggle to get him in the top 12 for Roto, but I definitely have him in there in points. Masataki Yoshida went four for five on Monday. He's now hitting 333 with an 899 OPS. Nine runs 10 RBI

and 14 games since the All-Star break. By or sell, Masataki Yoshita should be rostered and started in all points and Roto Leagues. I sell him. I'm not sure he should be started in many at all. Okay.

It's, you know, the batting average wasn't looking so great prior to this game, this four hit game. Yeah, I think it was like 279 since the break. Right. And that's with basically no power and no speed. Mm-hmm. So it's just,

he might produce decent batting average the rest of the way, but I think it'll be pretty hollow. I can see a Brandon Nimmo like season for Masataki Yoshita at some point where like it might be hard in Fenway because it's not a great park for hitting home runs

but yeah the part of the problem is Nimmo even though he is a good fantasy player a better real life player than a fantasy player because he minimal speed decent but not great power for Brandon Nimo so that's kind of the upside for Masataki Yoshita. Let's talk about a couple of pitchers, and we'll start with a guy who pitched on Monday and was okay, not great, not particularly good. Zach Gallen, did I have that number right?

Did he give up five earn runs today? Yeah, seven innings, eight hits, five earn runs, two walks, four strikeouts. Zach Allen has an 11.4% walk rate since the All-Star break. It's four starts, but he's been just a little off since. coming back from the I.L. with that hamstring injury at the end of June, buy or sell.

Zach Allen is no longer a top 20 starting pitcher. I will sell that, by which I mean he is still a top 20 starting pitcher. Now, if you said top 15, I may have bought it. Because at this point, I'm ready to move Hunter Green past him and Blake Snell passed him.

I don't have a good read on what's going on with Zach Allen. Same. I just like, I can't figure it out. Remember, he came back from the IL and was like throwing way harder. And then he went through a stretch where he wasn't getting any strikeouts at all. Yeah.

And then now the control's weird. It's just like things have just been a little weird. Right. Across the board for Zach Allen since he came back. And so. I mean, there are occasions where you might sit him if this doesn't turn around quickly. He was a two-star pitcher this week, so I doubt anybody considered sitting him for the two starts. But we're entering that territory.

It's just that once you get outside the top 20 at starting pitcher looking at my rankings, the confidence level goes down quite a bit across the board. and so I'd rather bet on Zach Gallen's track record than, um, let's see what's a good comparison than that. So like some of the guys, I, like I've got him just ahead of Freddie Peralta,

who has his own inconsistency issues, both for his career and this season. I've got him just behind Logan Webb, but I really feel no confidence in the, that Sunny Gray has had his own issues lately. It's, yeah, I don't know. I mean, we've talked a lot about it over the last week or so. It feels like there's a top tier and then there's a drop.

And I think Gallin's in the drop, period. Stretch. Yeah, and among the drop, I think it would be, he'd be one of the least surprising to go on an ace-like run to the season, just because that's mostly what he's been in his major league career. And so when in doubt, I'm going to default to track record, I think, just as a general rule. All right.

And let's do one more before we move on to Monday's recap, uh, continuation. And it's a guy who could look extremely different 24 hours from now. Because I believe Nicodolo starts against the Marlins on Tuesday. And he's got a 675 ERA since the all-star break, just a 22.9% walk rate. We've talked about it a lot that curveball just has not been there for him. it's entirely possible he goes out tonight and has 12 strikeouts and six in against the marlins. I would not be surprised at all. But buy or sell,

Nicodolo, no longer a starting caliber fantasy option. That's kind of a vague description. Yeah. So I'm going to, no longer a top 40 starting pitcher in fantasy. Oh, okay. That's different because I mean starting caliber.

Well, you've, look, you've got, you're criticizing, I offer a solution, and now you're criticizing again. No, no, I'm just saying it's different. I'm glad you, I'm glad you redefine the terms, because I haven't 57th than my rest of season. Wow. Okay. So I guess I'm buying it. Uh, a curveball's not right. And it hasn't been right since mid May. And so you say you want to be surprised to see him strike out 12 Marlins, I would be, unless the curveball's profile is back to normal. I wouldn't be surprised to see him allow one run on three hits and six innings against the Marlins, but I don't see the strikeout rate climbing that high just because he doesn't have his put-away pitch right now. So I ended up having him pretty high in my two-star pitcher rankings for this week because that Marlins matchup in the second is against the Brewers,

who have not been so good without Christian Yelich. But even if he has a good week, if Lodolo has a good week and the curve by still isn't back, then I don't see myself moving them up much higher than 57th in my rankings here. All right. Let's move on to some waiver wire pitchers from Monday night. Going to be honest, not a particularly exciting group of options, but we'll start with, I think, the most exciting. That's Andrew Heaney, who bounced back from a couple of poor showings with a solid outing against a tough matchup in Houston on Monday. The lone run he gave up over six innings was a solo home run by Alex

Bregman. It was also the only hit that he allowed for strikeouts. Only nine swinging strikes, which isn't what you want to see, but the overall result to kick off a two-start week, not bad. 34% rostered, still throwing that harder, tighter slider.

Where are we out on Andrew Heaney? Is he someone people should be picking up, is 34% too low? I'm annoyed. That's where I'm at. Sure. Because I had him as one of my sleeper pitchers for like three weeks in a row. didn't pay off. So I didn't bother this week

and he goes and has a really good start because he actually went six innings and that's been part of the problem. So in this, during this only 80 pitches, I believe too. Okay, yeah, during this seven-start stretch where he's had the slider up

about a mile per hour and a half, 350-80 RA, this is including today's start, seven starts, 350-80-R-A-104-whip, 8.6K per 9. Not amazing numbers. but certainly ones you would consider using from time to time,

especially with that low whip. But this was only the second of those seven starts where Andrew Heaney went six innings. So it was hard to justify using him, even though there were some signs of him turning the corner or turning over a new leaf or however you want to put it. 34% rostered seems a little low.

but yeah I'm I'm not sure he's been quite dominant enough to make up for the early hooks

you know unless the six inning thing becomes consistent for him all right JPC or do you have something else to say I basically said it I was just looking

for a way to finish the sentence but people know where I was going all right JPC here's I was surprised he's 61% rostered, but then I remembered he had two starts this week, one of them today against the white socks. And I mean, boy, if you've got two starts and one of them's against the white socks, the other one needs to be against like the 1927 Yankees to not be worth starting at this point because J.P. Sears had 13 whiffs. 10 with his four seamers, struck out five, gave up one earn run over three with three hits over seven innings, walked one. He did have a 307 ERA with 30 strikeouts to four walks in July.

Is there something here? He was kind of an interesting prospect a couple of years ago. We've seen stretches from him. Obviously, Oakland's a pretty good place to pitch and suddenly a great offense backing him up. Is there something here the rest of the way or is this just a versus the white socks thing? I think it's mostly a versus the white socks thing and a hot hand thing. I did have him as a sleeper pitcher for this week. I think he was right behind Mania.

So off to a good start there. His second matchup is at the Blue Jays. I think it's another favorable one. And you did point out that he had a strong July, did J.P. Sears. His last two starts, he's thrown his fastball a lot more, around 15% of the time. When normally it's 33% of the time. And it got a lot of whiffs in both cases. If you're able to get whiffs on your fastball, you have a chance to be pretty decent pitcher.

I don't believe his season with rate on that pitch is that high. JP Sears, but I don't know if he's doing something different. He's thrown it a lot more and it's been more effective his last two starts. So we'll see if that

continues going forward. Yeah, whiff rate on is 25%, which is actually decent for a four-scene fastball. It's actually the best of any of his pitches, which feels like a problem overall. It does. Well, I mean, maybe throwing it

more will help him be a little more consistent. But I think he's going to remain a matchup's play. And if you want to move on from him after this two-star week, I think that would be fine. All right. Some low, low-end waiver wire guys, frankly, not sure. Either of these guys needs to be rostered outside of AL and NL only. Logan Allen returned to the rotation for the Guardians was, meh. Two earned runs on five hits, two walks, two walks,

two strikeouts. He just five whiffs doesn't get any strikeouts, didn't go down to the miners and find a way to get more strikeouts. So I think not much to be excited about there. And then, look, Nick Martinez, great matchup against the Marlins went out five shot at innings. But even if he remains in the roster, he's just a streamer, right, at best? Yeah, that's all Martinez. And I think this is going to be one and done for Logan Allen. Yeah. Because Tanner Bybee had to miss a. turn. He hasn't even gone on the IL. And also Alex Cobb is supposed to be back this weekend. So Alan's not going to be the only one. They have to eject from the rotation.

All right. Let's move on. You know, we talk sometimes we'll do like an ACE's being ACEs. Well, today we're doing ACEs of varying degrees of quality and effectiveness. Because we had three high-end pitchers pitch tonight who were all okay, I guess. We'll start with Logan Webb at the Washington National. five point two innings, five hits, one earned run, but three walks, four strikeouts. It wasn't a terrible start. It's just we're still waiting for improvement from Logan Webb. And the one thing I will say is he had eight whiffs with his changeup on Monday. He had nine in his previous start.

That whiff rate on that pitch had been below 20%. And it's not a great swing and miss pitch. It's a great contact pitch, but it had taken a step back, which probably helps explain why his strikeout rate's been so mediocre this season. Where are you at on Logan Webb? Is he still a top 24 starting pitcher? Oh, yeah.

Yeah, for me, he is. And other than that rough patch that he just came out of with these last two starts, the numbers look pretty good. The strikeout rate was down, the whip was up, but he was throwing a lot of innings. And I don't know. I'm kind of bored by Logan Webb

to be honest with you He's one of those pictures where the nicest thing The nicest thing you can say about him And this is not an insult It's just you don't really have to think about him

Right Right Right There was a moment Particularly early on Where it was like Oh what's going on With the change up

But then he navigated it well enough And I just kind of stopped Caring at that point You know I made the All-Star team I think he's fine I think it's encouraging

that the last two starts you've thrown the change up a lot more and it has gotten more whiffs and I think that's an encouraging development. I'm not sure I needed to see it to feel comfortable with Logan Webb but there's not a lot of reason to have discomfort with Logan Webb

I guess at this point. I don't see it anyway. All right Tyler Glass now went out six innings, nine strikeouts on five hits, three earned runs against the Phillies and that ERA just remains a little inflated, right?

354 for the season, 396 since May 1st, but it still comes with consistently elite strikeout numbers, 268XERA. There's no concerns here, right? No, I will note that his ERA was 353 last year, which also seemed inflated.

That's actually, that's the one thing about Tyler Glass now is like, it's always been like wow on a purining basis he's incredible and he is that's don't get me wrong but his time in in Tampa was a 320 ERA and I feel like he got talked about as someone who was elite elite across the board it was just volume but his his ERAs have been inflated for a while or at least a little more than you would expect given the dominant peripherals and swings and misses It's, look, he's a top five or top seven starting pitcher for me. Top five.

You're splitting hairs among that group. But, you know, like him versus Paul Skeen's next year. Tyler Glassnow versus Chris Sale next year. Tyler Glassnow versus Dylan Sees. I think there are going to be some really interesting discussions for next season. Well, let's not dismiss the even bigger red flag for Tyler Glass now, which is the health. history.

Yeah, the health history. This was his 21st start, which equals his career high

from last year. So he's now reached, you know, the next start's going to be a new career

high and good for Tyler Glass now for doing that. He did have one IL stint. I guess I shouldn't speak in

the past tense. He has had one IL stint this year. So things are going well, and obviously

when you have you're looking at too months remaining in the season versus a full six-month season. You don't stress about injury risk as much. At least I don't. So I understand having it out of mind right now, but we'll see what ends up happening. If he gets a full 30 starts, will he have time to get 30 starts after this being number 21?

Probably pretty close. Yeah, it's going to, because I think he missed like two or three turns. So, yeah, that's going to be real close. We'll see. If he ends up having a long-term injury. or not. I think in the long run the ERA is going to be fine. It's, it's because of that health history, it's always been

such small samples we're working with. 12 starts in 2019, he had a 178 ERA. 14 starts in 2021, you had a 266 ERA. Three starts in 2022, three starts. He had a 135 ERA.

So it was really just the 40ERA in 2020 and the 353 ERA last year that kind of have inflated it. I don't think long-term ERA is going to be a concern for glass now. All right. And then Aeronola ran into trouble in the fourth inning of this one was pretty excellent.

Otherwise, gave up four run runs in that one inning, but that was all for the game. Six innings, four-run runs. Four strikeout, zero walks. Not a great start, but not a terribly distressing one. He did have a 277 ERA on June 5th. And he has a 466 mark since then. Now, maybe you're thinking, ah,

same old, Aaron Nola. I will point out, it's only three starts out of nine, I believe, in that stretch, with more than three earned runs allowed.

So it's not, like, you'd prefer not to have, like, one was eight earned runs allowed. I think there might have been another with six, but for the most part,

he's still been really good. He's a top 10 starting pitcher for me in the rankings right now. Aaron Ola is still ace? I don't know. I hesitate. I do have him 12th in my rest of season rankings, but it's a situation where I kind of wish I had a clearer 12th.

Yeah. And maybe it's going to be Blake Snell. Maybe I'm going to move Blake Snell ahead of Aaron. Maybe it's going to be Hunter Green. Maybe. Maybe. It's a little like Zach Gallen. It hasn't been as bad as Zach Gallen,

but where I just want him to be better than this. Sure. doesn't quite feel like a nice. All right. We are going to head into the last block of the show with some hitters. And Will Smith went 04. I believe it was 4 on Monday. Let me make sure the box score had that right.

0 for 4 with one strikeout. He is 5 for 44 since the All-Star break. And I'm only pointing out because I remember there was a stretch probably in late June or early July where it was like, man, Will Smith having the best season of his career. And he has struck out 41% of the time since the All-Star break as well. And I bring this up mostly because I was just looking at the Dodgers lineup. It is pretty bad in the bottom two-thirds.

You know, the Yankees have kind of fixed their poor vibes. And the Dodgers hasn't gotten as much play. But every hitter hitting below fifth or below fourth today had a season-long OPS below almost 700. Will Smith down to 6-766. I'm not really worried about Will Smith. I just figured we'd address it. Any worries about Will Smith?

No, I'm not going to drop them in my rankings at all. For the year, it's still a 20% strikeout rate, which is a little high for him, but obviously not high for the general hitter. I don't think there's anything to

worry about. Okay. Hazer Sanchez. hit the longest home run of the season in Major League Baseball, a 480-foot shot. He's kind of got a little bit of that Luis Garcia going on where he's been really good for about a month now. Underlying numbers for Hazu Sanchez are incredible. It's just he doesn't play against lefties. And so he's remained, I think, around 20% rostered in CBS. I think in Roto leagues, it should probably be a little higher.

He's useful when they have a lot of right-handed pitchers on the mound. But it is what it is kind of. Chapman for the Giants. Homeward for the third game in a row on Monday, fifth time overall since the All-Star break. He has an OPS north of 800 since the start of June as well. And I point that out because, you know, Sarah's noted on Twitter that that coincided with an increase in his pull rate

on fly balls starting in June. It's like his pull rate is up to like 44% in that stretch, quietly having a very solid season. We talked about it a little bit on yesterday's podcast. 12 stolen bases for a guy that had 11 in his whole career coming into the end to this season. So that's come out of nowhere, but just a really solid season overall for Matt Chapman. And someone that I have not really moved up in the rankings. And I think I probably need to get him into like the top 15 at third base.

Is that overstating it? No, I think I have him. Would you rather have him or Mark Vientos? Oh, Chapman. I think it'd have to have to... In Rotow. Chapman or Kim? Oh, Chapman.

Okay. It's been... It's been very good for a while. Giants for this one year, right? It's got a cushion, our pillow, I think, is what they call it. Mutual options. I would imagine he's going to turn down.

I think it's like a Ballinger thing, yeah. I imagine he's going to turn down any options after this season, but is... They've... really resuscitated him, I feel like, getting the strikeout rate down low since 2019 and fixing the... I think the defensive metrics are pretty much improved across the board as well. Yeah.

He's on like a seven wins above replacement pace. Yeah, he is, which would be as high as since 2019. And, you know, you bring up the poll rate. I think back to that story, I remember reading last spring where Matt Chatsy, Chapman and Bo Bichette worked together on driving the ball the other way. And that worked out very poorly for both of them. And it ruined both of them, it seems like, yes. So I don't know, maybe we should root for Bo Bichet to get traded to the Giants or something.

Let's do it. All right, Matt Walner, two for four with two doubles and, of course, two strikeouts on Monday. OPS is over 1,000 for the season with underlying numbers that don't entirely back it up, but are pretty good. 383X Woba for the season. Still striking out 36% of the time since coming back from AAA, though. Is Matt Walner just a decent five outfielder option?

Or is he someone who you should view as a starter in those formats? At the moment, I think he's usable in five outfield release. Maybe even smart to use them. It's just I feel like when it ends, it'll end. very painfully. Yeah, probably. You may be getting in too late. All right.

Josh Smith did hit a walkoff homer on Monday. It was just his second since the All-Star break. He's hitting 206 with a 28% strikeout rate since then. I think you mentioned him on Sunday as someone who has moved down in your rankings quite a bit. Where are you at on Josh Smith? I don't remember bringing him up, but... Maybe you mentioned him in relation to another player. Maybe.

Or maybe I'm just a liar. Maybe I remembering someone else. No, I don't have a lot of affection for Josh Smith. He's one of those players when I adjust my rankings. I begrudgingly put him high because of what he's done so far. It doesn't look like his playing time has suffered at all. So I don't know. I'll have to dig into this a little more and see if I can justify moving him down.

But I'd welcome it because it's not a bit. big home run source, not a big stolen base source. And it's, you got to be really good at everything else to, to stick to be worthwhile in fantasy that way. All right. Let's move on to a couple of bullpen updates. First up, Arizona. Ryan Thompson got another save opportunity on Monday. Good news. Bad news. He blew another save on Monday. And it's weird because he's having a really good season. It's like a two-ish, 231 ERA maybe, but

he's also like a Submariner who doesn't throw particularly hard and has an 18% strikeout rate and so given the number of exciting arms in that Did I Submariner Like I I kind of called him

Mariner. Yeah I mean I like that's what they call Namor In the in the Marvel he's the submariner But I don't know if that's Submariner like you're going under Yeah he's sub marining But either way He's a he's a he's a

sidearm, underarm thrower who doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. And this is a bullpen with a lot of interesting alternatives. AJ Puck got the save on Sunday, bailing Ryan Thompson out. Kevin Ginkle's been very good. Just Martinez, who I believe you mentioned

in yesterday's podcast, got the save in the 10th inning after the debacks retook the lead. I'm not sure I have a favorite in this bullpen. I mean, they seem to want it to be Ryan Thompson, but I think he's allowed to run in three straight outings now.

I think this was the last chance for Ryan Thompson is my guess. I'm only guessing. But you blow two saves in a row. You're already not the most optimal choice given your low strikeout rate. And then you have there are good alternatives. There are a lot of good alternatives. And Justin Thompson, I think is the dark horse here. He got the saves.

Justin Martinez. Yeah, sorry. to Martinez. I think he's the dark horse here. He got the save in the 10th. And Kevin Ginkle had already worked and AJ Puck had already worked and maybe it would have been different

if they hadn't. But it's got a very low ERA. throws very hard. It's real hard. Yeah. I think 23 years old, I think he's somebody they could

identify as their closer of the future and maybe the future begins now. My guess is still Paul Seawald, the most likely scenarios Paul Seawald reclaims it sooner than later. But if not, I've got Justin Martinez

stashed in a couple of my deeper leagues. All right. And then the last one, the Twins, got a save, I believe for the first time since, let me pull that up. Cole Sands got their last save on July 22nd. And it was not Yohan Duran, who got the save on Monday.

It was Griffin Jacks. Yon Duran worked the eighth. inning. Doran hadn't had a save opportunity since July 13th. There just haven't been many opportunities in this bullpen. But he also hasn't been particularly good this season since coming back from that back injury. Latt?

Yeah. And at the very least, I would expect Yohan Duran to get more saves than not the rest of the way. But yeah, he doesn't need to be considered one of the elite closers anymore, right? No, and I haven't had him ranked like that for months, actually. He, let me, when was Griffin Jack's last save? Because when he first came, but, it was well more than a month ago. Okay. Griffin Jack's last save came June 23rd.

Yeah. But it looks like, they have also only had like four saves as a team. Right. Since then. Right. That's what I was going to say. So there's been some amount of mixing and matching already with Yon Duran being, getting like three quarters of the safe chances or something like that.

And I think that it'll continue that way. That's been Rocco Baldelli's MO since he took over managing the twins. Last year was the exception because I just think because Duran was so dominant. But he hasn't been this year. So he's still the one you want from this bullpen. but yeah, he's not, he's not one of the elite closers by any stretch at this. I think this is more about Duran not being an elite closer than like Griffin Jacks having much more than marginal value, even though he's a good pitcher in his own right. Yeah.

All right. To stream or not to stream for Tuesday, let's kick it off. And a name that we didn't talk about on yesterday, but who I know for absolute certainty is going to be at the top of Scott's list. and my list. Hayden Bird's song at Washington, number one with a bullet, not even a streamer in our eyes, right? Correct.

Needs to be rostered much more widely. Who else do you like on Tuesday? I think it's actually kind of a decent group. Sorry for just tapping the microphone there. It's okay. I was going to scratch my chin dramatically. And I tap the microphone. So sorry about that.

Okay. I don't know. I don't know that I'm that motivated to pick anyone else. Jeffrey Springs at St. Louis, a pretty good matchup, but he did not look good in his first start back for Tommy John surgery, so that seems too risky to me. I think Ben Lively versus Arizona is okay. Yeah. I think Colin Ray at Atlanta's not terrible. Colin Ray at Atlanta was the one I picked as my second choice when we were looking ahead to Tuesday yesterday. So I'm going to stick with that. And honestly, we talked about it yesterday and you disagreed. I think you can see. start anyone against the white socks.

I draw the line at Ross Stripling. That's fair. But I think even Ross Stripling might be above the Ross Stripling line against the white socks. Also just... This is where we get Bryce Elder against the Brewers. Yeah, I mean, I think he could be fine. I wouldn't be surprised. He's in the upper half of the names here.

And then we're not streaming them, but definitely going to be keeping a close eye on Eduardo Rodriguez and Tyler Malley making their season debuts. Rodriguez tough matchup against Cleveland in Cleveland Tyler Malley tough matchup versus Houston so wouldn't be surprised if they both struggled but would like to see them both pitch well. Let's move on to Wednesday and

I don't, you say Kukuchi probably doesn't count he's probably too widely rostered but he would be at the top if not and uh, Andrew Abbott at Miami. Yeah, that's that's pretty easily the second choice. though these are better options I think overall I just I wish it was Paul Blackburn

versus Colorado not at Colorado although I could still see him having a good outing so you got Jake Irvin against the Giants here you got Brandon Fott and Cleveland here I'm not sure they'd make Franks cut off in terms of roster rate I feel like they're probably too widely rostered to qualify for this segment but just by comparison to these

to these scrubby types that's where I'm like, okay, just give me the better pitcher. And I think Jake Gervin, Brandon, fought that description, not over Andrew Abbott because the matchup's so good

and obviously not over Kukuchi. But, but yeah, they're pretty easy to stream in my eyes. I like Joey Estes against the White Sox on Wednesday more than I like roster playing on Tuesday. All right,

that's going to do it for fantasy baseball today. On Monday, we'll be back tomorrow. We'll talk about some of those streamers. We'll talk about much more. We'll see you then. Take care.