Fantasy Baseball Today - Emmanuel Clase Hype! Relief Pitcher Recap & Early 2022 Rankings w/ Greg Jewett (11/18 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 18, 2021

We're talking closers, which means Greg Jewett is joining us on the podcast (1:00)! ... Before we get to relief pitchers, Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros and Noah Syndergaard signed with th...e Angels (3:45). ... What is the current state of closers in Fantasy Baseball (12:55)? ... Let's take a look at the top-5 relief pitchers in 2021, starting with Liam Hendriks (17:30). ... On to the top-10 relief pitchers (27:34). Will the Blue Jays go back to Jordan Romano? ... How do we handle teams who go closer by committee (30:20)? ... Where might Craig Kimbrel wind up (38:16)? ... Should we start to worry about Mark Melancon (41:38)? ... What do we do with Aroldis Chapman (46:26)? ... Let's wrap up with Scott's early 2022 relief pitcher rankings (50:02)! 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Center field. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Starting point is 00:00:25 Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam. Mark Mulanson just led baseball with 39 saves, which is the first time that we did not have a closer with 40 saves since 1982. Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Thursday, November 18th. Frank Stamphill, joined as always by Scotty Doves, Scott White. And you guessed it. Today, we're focusing in on closers. We'll recap the position from this past season.
Starting point is 00:00:48 We'll take a look at Scott's early 2022 relief pitcher rankings. Yes, we'll talk about Sparps a little bit as well for those who play in points leagues. Those are starting pitchers who have relief pitcher eligibility. A little bit of a cheat code there. We do have a few big pitching signings to talk about as well, Justin Verlander, and Noah Sinigard. And joining us on today's podcast, we have a special guest, a man who knows a thing or two about closers. He is a closer expert for the athletic and has all these amazing closer charts, articles, podcasts that you can find over on his Patreon page.
Starting point is 00:01:21 That's Reliever Recon. And it is Greg joining us now. What's going on, Greg? Not too much. Honored to join you guys on this podcast and looking forward to a great show. Closers are frustrating, but it's a labor of love. Yeah, especially talking about closers in the middle of November, right? Like we were talking beforehand.
Starting point is 00:01:41 What we're going to attempt to do today is nearly impossible, right? So we're just going to preface everything with that. Like we have no idea what's going to happen in the off season. We can talk about what happened this year and take away a few things from that. But I'm sure we'll have, I don't know, five to ten different closer situations by the time we get to February. And then maybe a few different that change even after that. So what's going on, Scott? Are you ready to talk about closers?
Starting point is 00:02:04 At least as far as we know. the way you broke that down. I mean, you know, basically since the beginning of time, we could have said, okay, mid-November is too early to talk about closer roles because there's so many free agents. We don't know what teams are looking to upgrade the role. We don't know really if some of the late season guys who took over the role are going to stick in the role heading into next season.
Starting point is 00:02:30 But what's different about kind of this year, kind of the last two or three, four years, is that we don't know that even in April for most teams. Like how many teams anoint a closer officially before the season starts? We usually have a pretty good hunch who we expect a team's leading save guy to be, but we're kind of finding it out together as the season plays out. We just see what a manager starts to do. And okay, I guess this guy's the closer now.
Starting point is 00:03:01 So, yeah, we'll know more in February. in March than we do right now. But we won't know that much more. And look, for those who play fantasy football, you know, a thing or two about running back by committee, we have quite a few closer by committees as well. And you can see that reflected in the numbers. This past season, we had 198 different relievers with a save. And back in 2019, that was 190. That was more than 30 in 2018. So it seems like this is kind of where we're settling in now where we have all these different kinds of relievers getting saves. And that's kind of just the way that the game is trending right now.
Starting point is 00:03:39 But before we get back into closers and recapping relief pitchers, big news. Justin Verlander is back with the Houston Astros on a one-year, 25 million deal, which is essentially a two-year, $50 million deal because there's a $25 million player option for 2023. The last time we saw Verlander in a full season was 2019. when he had a 2.58 ERA, 0.80 whip, 300 strikeouts, finishing as the number one overall player in 5x 5-Roto that season. I also think the fact, Scott, that the Astros were willing to give him this much money,
Starting point is 00:04:17 essentially over two years again, 50 million, tells you everything that you need to know about his health, right? We just saw the Dodgers decline to give a qualifying offer to Kershaw, the White Sox declined to give a qualifying offer to Carl Srodon. A deal like this tells me, you should feel pretty good about Justin Verlending. Yeah, I mean, particularly since it's with the team he had already been with. Right.
Starting point is 00:04:38 And they had the most insight into how his rehabilitation is going. I thought this was going to take a lot longer to play out because, you know, even just earlier in the day, we kept hearing about all these teams that were interested. The White Sox, my Braves came up. There's one team after another. There's interest in Verlander here. And then all of a sudden he's signing with the Astros. And I mean, it's a good deal for a will-be 39-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery to get the guaranteed... He's guaranteed at least 50 million, like you said.
Starting point is 00:05:11 But he also has the option of opting out after that first year if he comes back like gangbusters and wants to try for another multi-year deal. He's a player option that second year. So, like, this is... You can understand why he jumped at this deal. But, you know, considering the organization that offered it to him, Yeah, I find that very encouraging. But I've been encouraged all along. I think I'm going to have a lot of shares of Verlander.
Starting point is 00:05:36 If, you know, I imagine in spring training, we could see his draft stock skyrocket when people are actually seeing him pitch again. Yeah. But I'm happy to snap him up anywhere I can before then. Yeah, there's already reports that he's throwing 97 miles per hour. I know we had a showcase recently where multiple teams attended and all reports were pretty good out of there. I was talking with a few people on Twitter earlier.
Starting point is 00:05:59 on Wednesday night and talking about how his NFBC ADP is so low right now. It's like in the 12th round of 15 team leagues. And I think that's going to shoot up now. That he has a team. He's going back to the team that he was on familiarity there. Greg, by the way, doesn't just focus on closures, right? Like he plays fantasy baseball. He knows a thing or two.
Starting point is 00:06:17 We're in Tout Wars together in the head to head points league. So Greg, what are your thoughts on Justin Verlander? Turning 39 years old in February, coming back from Tommy John surgery. He'll be 18 months removed from that surgery by the time we get to spring. training. Can you see yourself being in on someone like Justin Verlender? I think so. And we just, you know, temper expectations. I'm not going to expect 2019 to crystallize. However, everyone's looking for people that can rack up innings. Now, he knows his body and Houston should know his body in anybody better than Kate Upton
Starting point is 00:06:48 otherwise than at his point. So, you know, we've got him coming back. And even if he's only going to give me five innings that maybe at the beginning of the season, and if he starts ramping it up as the season goes on and gets up into those things. I know you and I and I and Tao Wars were hunting for quality starts. So I mean, this is somebody that has a track record of working into games. So that's going to make him a lot more enviable in that's sort of a format. And the other thing here we have to like is we know he's going to a team that has winning pedigree. And that helps. You know, we can't chase wins, but we can chase pitchers on good teams that are in situations to garner them. So yeah, yeah, I think he's,
Starting point is 00:07:28 steps right in and they have enough pitching depth where if he needs to take a turn off or, you know, out of the rotation for, you know, take one time off, they can do that so they don't really, they won't probably press him into too many to start situations early in the season, kind of let him ease into it. So, you know, we've seen these veterans and other bodies, you know, Lance Lynn eats up innings. I don't think he's going to beat quite to that level of innings pitched. But, you know, if I, you get him in a 3.50 ERA with a whip around one or a little higher. Definitely.
Starting point is 00:08:00 I mean, yeah, that I think is, ADP was like 172 on average right now. That's going to be, that'll be inside the hunters by the time we're all getting going in March. Yeah, I think so too. By the way, Noah Sindergarde signed a one year $21 million deal as well with the Angels who are desperate for pitching themselves.
Starting point is 00:08:17 And I'm not sure how much we take away. He threw two innings this past season, but his fastball velocity was down three miles per hour. He didn't throw any breaking pitches. Scott, your thoughts on Noah Sindergarde to the Angels. Yeah, not as excited about Noah Cindergarde for a few different reasons. One, it's his second Tommy John surgery, and the track record for that isn't as good. You mentioned his velocity was way down for the little tiny bit we saw on pitch still.
Starting point is 00:08:44 It's down significantly. So it's something to consider. And then even beyond that, I mean, his last two seasons before having the second Tommy John, not as dominant as you probably think they were, just a little more than a strikeout per in each of them. And in that second season, he had an ERA over four. The whip was above one, two, and both of them. It wasn't exactly an ace.
Starting point is 00:09:09 And maybe his elbow was already deteriorating at that point. It's possible, but we're talking about a sample of more than 50 starts. I would say of the big pitchers coming back from Tommy John's surgery, Verlander, Luis Severino, Mike Clevenger and Cindergarde. Cindergarde is my least favorite of that group. Hmm. Yeah, I think that's probably fair.
Starting point is 00:09:34 I mean, we haven't seen Clevenger pitch in a while, too. I will say, you know, just like Verlander, I think if all of these guys look good in spring training, like we're probably going to see all of their ADPs on the rise. Cindergarde's ADP as of now 196.7. There's only been seven drafts done over on the NFBC. But yeah, he's going pretty late. We'll see if no Cindergarde can bounce back.
Starting point is 00:09:53 I want to run through these news items, bit quicker here so we can get to everything we need to do at the relief pitcher position. Jose Barrios agreed to a seven-year, $131 million extension with the Blue Jays on Tuesday, so he's not going anywhere in 12 starts with the Blue Jays this past season. 3.58 ERA 109 whip, 78 strikeouts over 70 and a third for Jose Burrios. Brandon Belt, the only person to accept the qualifying offer and will remain with the Giants for one year, $18.4 million. $10. Belt was 15th in Scott's early first base rankings. I assume it stayed that way, right?
Starting point is 00:10:27 Yes. Yeah. I wanted to see him leave San Francisco, both because it's stifled his power over the course of his career. Now, maybe that's not as big of an issue as it used to be. It's played fairer the past couple years. He just set a career high in home runs and only 97 games. But beyond that, I would have liked to see him go somewhere where he has some hope of playing every day. Because I think under Gabe Capilar, he's not often going to start against lefties. So that's going to keep him out of the time. top 12 at first base, even though I think he has top 12 ability. Yeah, Gabe Caput, by the way, won National League manager of the year. So shout out to him. Kevin Cash won the American League manager of the year. Reisel-Leglacius did not accept a qualifying offer, becoming a free agent. We'll have more on him later on. And the Cy Young Award winners were announced.
Starting point is 00:11:15 Mr. Tight Pants himself, Robbie Ray, won it in the American League and well-deserved. Shout out to Adam Azer. Again, I will always bring this up. His bold prediction last year in the shortened season, Robbie Ray would finish top three in the National League Sy Young Award voting when he was on the Diamondbacks.
Starting point is 00:11:30 That did not happen. This year he goes out and he wins the award, so how about that? Corbyn Burns won it in the National League causing some controversy on Twitter. I really don't think it's very controversial myself. Burns had a higher war
Starting point is 00:11:42 in 50 less endings pitched and I think he was clearly the best starting pitcher outside of Jacob the ground. Which version of war? I'm pretty sure Wheeler had a higher war or baseball reference. Well, I was using Fangraphs,
Starting point is 00:11:55 So I don't know what the difference. Fangraphs has the inferior war, at least for pitchers. Oh, I think. All right. But anyway, like, it was very close between the three finalists, Burns, Burns Wheeler and Scherzer. I mean, it was very close in terms of vote, and I think very close in terms of them meeting the criteria. And frankly, Bueller was a not-so-distant fourth, Walker Bueller. So it was a really tight race between the four of them.
Starting point is 00:12:25 them. I would have probably gone Wheeler. I might have gone Scherzer over Burns too, but it, you know, I don't have a problem with Burns winning. This Sunday, it's week 11 on the NFL on CBS and there are plenty of games with playoff implications, including Lamar Jackson leading the Ravens against the Bears and the Bengals battling the Raiders. We'll get you ready for all of the day's action at noon Eastern with J.B. and the guys on the NFL today. That's all this Sunday on CBS. the closer. Greg Jewett is still here. We're going to get them back in. We'll work him back in here. The league saves the last five seasons. It's kind of bounced around, but it's been between
Starting point is 00:13:05 1,276 and 1,180, each of the past five full seasons. So from 2016 through 2021. So, you know, we're looking at a range of about 100 saves and it's taken a step back. I don't know that it's really taken the step back that everyone's making it out to be. What we're losing really is, is stud closers, right? Like guys that are just racking up a ton of saves, which, as I mentioned, Mark Malanson just led the league in saves with 39. But back in 2019, it was Kirby Yates with 41.
Starting point is 00:13:37 But the year before that, it was Edwin Diaz with 57. At 2016, it was Jerry's Familia with 51. So we're kind of like losing out on those stud closers. Greg, this is like a loaded question. You could take it at whatever direction you want to. But what is the state of the closer in fantasy baseball today, in your opinion? The state of the closer today is, as you alluded to, the good news is when you're in these leagues
Starting point is 00:14:04 that the total saves to compete is down. So we were running the numbers from the main event and the draft champions. So like the 70th percentile now, you're in the 68 range to be in that area and score well. So if you get an anchor like one of these studs that you're alluring to, or at least somebody that has a clear path to saves, those become much more alluring. And they're going faster. The early NFBC, it started a little slow,
Starting point is 00:14:34 but one of the drafts I saw the other day, it's not completed yet, but Liam Hendricks went in the second round on the turn. So, I mean, that's a little aggressive to me. It's crazy. But I think some people just start saying, you know what, I'm giving my 35 saves right there, and I can take a couple of late darts later,
Starting point is 00:14:51 and as long as I accumulate 60 plus saves, than I'm in the 70th percentile. And I think that's how a lot of these people are going to start viewing this. You know, we always hear the don't pay for saves, but I think we're morphing into a phase with as much as you're saying, maybe I don't want to pay for saves. You're saying, I want to pay for somebody that I know at least has to roll. So Will Smith all of a sudden is going to have more value with Atlanta than, say,
Starting point is 00:15:17 a closer on another team that might give you better ratios or strikeouts that's in a shared role. These are all of these things. And then the ancillary saves guys. So if you, we're going to talk about a role as Chapman. So if you take Chapman, do you have to take in a draft champions or a league with limited pickups? Do I have to take Chad Green? Do I have to take Jonathan Loisica? You know, am I going to canvas a whole bullpen or am I just going to take a couple of people? So the state of the, the state of the closer is basically it's in flux. And the fantasy players are adjusting to it. And that's what's kind of helped create my niche. And, you know, our goal is to make sure that you're trying to stay a week ahead of these trends. And that's the key. If you're getting a
Starting point is 00:16:01 guy a week before or two weeks before, he's getting that job for a dollar bid, you're saving that precious free agent money for other resources and how to do those things. And you just have to know. And, you know, we talk about how coaches view running. backs. We're almost getting into the same thing. We're looking at how managers treat closers. So we know, okay, Seattle's morphing into Tampa Bay at the northwest. So maybe I don't want to dip my toe into that bullpen. I'm going to go somewhere else where there's a, again, the clear pathway. That's kind of like what we're, we want linear past the saves. As much as Aaron Boone drives Yankee fans crazy, he likes A to B to C. And that's he, that's his 7, 8, 9. And those are the
Starting point is 00:16:49 situations that we're looking to find. Yeah, and of course, when we're talking about this chase for saves, it's mostly in five-by-five roto leagues where, you know, saves is one of the traditional categories that we're playing with there. Same thing in head-to-head categories leagues. I would imagine many people are still playing with saves, though. Some people, you know, have transitioned into saves plus holds, which at that point, you're more so just looking for skills, right?
Starting point is 00:17:10 Like the best relievers, ERA, strikeouts, so on and so forth. In points leagues, again, which we will mention at some point in this podcast, we'll have a few relief pitcher eligible pitchers who are starting pitchers. So obviously they give you a little bit more volume and are more useful in that format. Let's go on to a year in review and just basically look at the top 20 at the position using 5x5 roto finish. Number one, no surprise here. Liam Hendricks, he actually got better according to the underlying numbers. Career best 1.57 Sierra, a 1.91 expected ERA.
Starting point is 00:17:45 and he has the third most saves since 2019. That is 77. Number three, we'll talk about here, just kind of lump these guys in together. But Josh Hater, he actually has the most saves since 2019. And Scott, I think it's basically just a coin flip.
Starting point is 00:18:00 It's like 1A and 1B between Hendricks and Hader up at the top. Yeah, it is. I do prefer Hater. He's quite a bit younger. Hendricks is going to be 33 at the start of next year. You never know when the skills are going to diminish, especially.
Starting point is 00:18:15 he relies so heavily on the fastball. Hendricks does appear to have a volume advantage just in terms of how much he pitches. But that's pretty recent. As in this year, Hader's innings fell off. And I don't know if that's going to be a longstanding trend. But if you did prefer Hendricks, that would probably be the reason why.
Starting point is 00:18:37 Yeah, Greg, I don't know if you have anything else to add to these guys. I mean, it seems like there's a very clear tier above everyone else. You mentioned, you know, I've seen a few, 15 team leagues where they're going in like the early third round. It seems very aggressive. I understand why like finding saves is so hard, but I'm never going to be the person to do it. It's just,
Starting point is 00:18:56 I've never tried it and I don't think I want to. It just throws things off when you take a reliever in the third round. Yeah, I was willing to take them in like the fifth and a 12 teamer last year. I was willing to be that guy, but I'm not sure I'm willing to be the third round guy and a 15 teamer that's steep. but you know you're paying for that and to to Scott's point Milwaukee a hater I've read three different articles with the interviews at the postseason and he was saying how much he he felt fresher pitching one inning outing so if he stays with Milwaukee I think that's pretty much going to be
Starting point is 00:19:30 the norm they just need Devin will Devin Williams to stay healthy and not punch a wall and have to have those last two innings short up for them great do you have a preference between the two No, I do not. I would be willing to take them, like I said, if they're there. Last year, I was more on Hendricks just because I thought that the white socks were going to really maybe use them for more four-out saves and things of that nature. But yeah, I still think that Hayter has the better swing and miss stuff. And as Scott alluded to with the youth on his side, as long as he stays in Milwaukee, I'm okay with it. If there was ever, and I know we talk about this at nauseam, but if there was ever a year that Milwaukee was going to, to trade him. This will be it. He's entering, you know, his second arbitration year. I believe they project them to get $10 million in his arbitration hearing. So that starts to get a little rich for a team that prefers to keep the salary down. All right. So something to pay attention to there. If Josh Hader is shipped out, I'm guessing. Devin Williams is probably the next man up there. But let's see. Let's see what happens with the
Starting point is 00:20:33 Brewers. Sandwich in between those guys was actually Rice Lake Glacius, who finished as the number to reliever this past season in fantasy, saved his best for age 31, 2.570 RA, 0.93 whip, a career high, 33% K-minus walk rate. He has the third most saves in baseball since 2017. He is a free agent turning down the qualifying offer, but I'm assuming, maybe I shouldn't assume this, but I think that he winds up a closer somewhere, Scott. Yeah, I would assume so. I would hope so. I'm certainly ranking him as such and I imagine he's going to
Starting point is 00:21:14 command the sort of salary that basically makes it obvious right that okay we're we're assigning this guy to hold down the ninth inning yeah he feels like one of the most bankable closers he's coming off of his I believe it's his first 100 strikeout season
Starting point is 00:21:34 as a full-time reliever which is a nice a nice milestone number and has been doing it for long enough that I don't have don't have much reason to there's nothing really to denigrate here with Ricell Iglesias.
Starting point is 00:21:52 I think I personally am going to prefer I'm forgetting his name. Cleveland's closer. Emmanuel Class A. Yeah, Emmanuel Class A. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:22:06 I think I'm going to prefer him to Eglacius because now that James Carenchak, I mean, he seems to be the guy, maybe the pitcher who has suffered the most from the foreign substance crackdown because he just didn't have it anymore when his spin rates were down and he got sent to the minors.
Starting point is 00:22:26 His strikeout rate was way down before that happened. So I don't think James Cairnichick is a threat to Emanuel Class A at all. I think Terry Francona has shown he likes those locked-in roles Class A certainly had that once Karen Chack fell off and stuff is so nasty, gives up such weak contact.
Starting point is 00:22:44 I think Ryssel Iglesias, having always been kind of vulnerable to the long ball, I think there's a chance as ERA ends up kind of highish, and I don't think that's going to happen with Class A. You know, there always seems to be a stretch during the season, and it was this past April, actually, for Iglesias. He had a six ERA where we're like, because is Eglacius.
Starting point is 00:23:07 You know, people forget this because the final numbers always look good for him. But there's always a stretch during the season where it looks like Eglacius is on shaky ground. I don't want to make too much of that because there are so many, there are only so many stable closers out there. But if I'm just nitpicking who's going to be my third closer, that's why I prefer class Aida, Iglesias. I don't know, Scott. I don't know. That one hurts me. That one hits me right in the heart.
Starting point is 00:23:31 What am I? I know. I may end up caving on that because I feel like I'm way out on. in with it. Yeah. But he's just going to laugh at me. That's my feeling right now. Hey, I look.
Starting point is 00:23:40 You laugh at that, Greg? Does that sound like a bad thought process? I mean, Frank's been, we've been following each other a long time. He knows last year after I had Claise as one of my sleeper picks and the athletic in the preseason as somebody that you could stash and possibly mine saves from as the year went on. So I kind of took him under my wing. So every save I was tweeting out, hashtag Claise closed. and putting the number down with the stuff.
Starting point is 00:24:07 So we'll get into some of his numbers a little later because I know Frank was asking about how I felt about him. And you made the perfect point with Corinczak as far as, you know, I remember there was a video. We don't wanna accuse anybody of anything, but there was a video I saw where there was like a white substance and then that was, you know, right before sticky substance to crack down. And I ignored the fact, along with many people,
Starting point is 00:24:30 that Corinchek had double percentage walk rates all the way through the minor leagues. Then all of a sudden he came up last year and was lights out throwing strikes everywhere. And it's like, why didn't that, why didn't the light bolt turn on and be like, what was going on here? How can you go from a double-digit walk rate for four years in the minors or however long it was? And you come up and now you've got a 5% walk rate. So all of that stuff kind of came crashing down on him. I do think Kerin Shaq will bounce back this year.
Starting point is 00:25:01 But I think that they will use him. and I'd like to refer to as the HLR, the highest leverage reliever. So he'll come in to 738, put out of fire at that point, and then Claz A can close out the game in the ninth for Francona. Yeah, I mean, Class A was just so good in the role, right? 24 saves, it seems like he's earned the right to, at least to start the season with quite a bit of confidence for Cleveland next year. A 129 ERA.
Starting point is 00:25:25 Yeah, no, he was amazing. We'll talk about Class A little bit more later on. Number four at the position. We're only up to four, so let's, come on, let's go, guys. Let's do this. 7 o'clock day already. Kenley Jansen, 34 years old and still
Starting point is 00:25:36 dominating 2.22 ERA, his lowest since 2017. Underlying numbers say, all right, maybe he was a bit lucky here. Fastball Velo, highest of his career. You like to see that. He's a free agent. Greg, I'll go to you on this one.
Starting point is 00:25:48 I assume he's back with the Dodgers. We don't know for sure, but let's say that he is. Would you trust Kenley Jansen? I was nervous about him last year. The one thing I'll say, along with the VLO bump, was he threw more sliders this year.
Starting point is 00:26:01 The Dodgers finally convinced him that he couldn't just keep throwing the cutter. So I think that increased his swinging strike percentage a little bit. It made him a little bit more effective pitcher this year. But yeah, I think if he's with the Dodgers, then I will be willing to take him. If he ends up with another organization, I'll probably move him down my ranks, a couple of spots just because Dave Roberts really trusted him in that role. And that's one of those situations we have to keep a close eye on because, you know, we don't have Blake Trinan
Starting point is 00:26:32 ranked anywhere because he's not the closer. But if for some reason Jansen decides to take money from somewhere else or if he thinks he's going to get two or three year deal and maybe the Dodgers are saying one or two, however that works out. Donald Southern Tryans going to be jumping into the top ten in
Starting point is 00:26:48 a lot of people's list. Yeah, and rightfully so. Number five at the position was Ranger Suarez, who, Scott, I believe will have SPARP eligibility next year, right? For points leagues? Yeah. Yeah, he's been most of the year in the bullpen, I think four of the six months, three and a half, something like that. So yeah, he made plenty of appearances there.
Starting point is 00:27:07 He'll be relief pitcher eligible still, and he'll be especially attractive in points leagues because of that. And especially attractive, just to Scott in general, because he loves the guy. He loves Ranger Suarez. We spoke about him quite a bit on the starting pitcher podcast. Number six was Alex Reyes. He was the Cardinals closer for the first four months of the season. It sounds like they want to try him out again in the starting rotation. so we will also skip Alex Reyes for now. I don't think that we need to talk about him from a bullpen perspective right now.
Starting point is 00:27:34 Jordan Romano was number seven at the position and started with Julian Meriwether in Toronto and the stuff looked awesome. So I couldn't really blame people for spending a bunch of fab on Meriwether that first week or so of the season. But then he got hurt. We had a little bit of Rafael Dolies in there.
Starting point is 00:27:51 Eventually Romano emerged and Scott, he was awesome. 2.14 ERA, 105 whip. 23 saves. the only thing that I worry, and again, it's mid-November, is the Blue Jays are trying to compete. Maybe they bring someone else in with more experience. But Romano showed us enough where if they want to just go with him, I think that's perfectly fine as well. Yeah, that is the concern. That's exactly it is the Blue Jays seem, it seems like they're linked to everybody this offseason.
Starting point is 00:28:18 They already gave Barrios the seven-year deal, Jose Burrios. So they're pushing in their chips. I could definitely see them wanting to. to improve their bullpen. And, you know, if they get a Kenley-Jansen or Ryssela glaciers or trade for Craig Kimbril or whatever, that would probably bump Romano back to his setup role. And it would be sad because he looks like he has a potential to be a really high-end closer in fantasy.
Starting point is 00:28:43 That's how I'm ranking him right now because they haven't made that move yet. But that could change. We could see him lose a lot of value. I also want to point out with Jordan Romano, like, once Kirby Yates got hurt early last season, before the start of the season, everybody pointed at Romano as the next in line. Remember, it didn't happen right away.
Starting point is 00:29:07 Julie and Meriwether got those early chances, and Romano got dropped in a lot of really deep leagues. And that's sort of the problem with relief pitchers. You don't have any, it's not like you have a bunch more roster spots to stash prospective guys away. But it can change so quickly. And we're all just kind of flying by our seat of our pants,
Starting point is 00:29:31 our seat of our pants during the season because no manager is really tipping their hand to show, their hand to show us what they're thinking. We got the impression it was Julian Meriwether. Maybe if Julian Merriweather hadn't gotten hurt, it would have stayed Julian Meriwether. We don't know. But it eventually did become Romano,
Starting point is 00:29:51 people who were patient with them, it paid big dividends and those who weren't. It paid big dividends for somebody else because he was great from the time he took over as the closer. Yeah, and there's a lot of gamesmanship too, right? Like, you know, when a manager's asked about a bullpen, late-ending roles, and who's the closer and whatever. Like, they could say whatever they want to try and throw off opposing teams. You don't know who you're going to get in the eighth inning, the ninth inning, whatever it might be. So there's gamesmanship involved there.
Starting point is 00:30:20 And I, like, I haven't mentioned this yet, but close. Closer by committee sucks for fantasy. It's super frustrating, but I 100% understand why teams do it, right? Like, just play the matchups. It makes perfect sense for them. I think... And Greg, I mean, you may disagree with this,
Starting point is 00:30:39 but there are some closer committees. There are a few teams out there, the Rays, the Mariners, probably a couple others. The Orioles, not like they get enough safe chances to matter, but they do. It does seem to be an actual save closing tandem between several pitchers. But for the majority of the teams,
Starting point is 00:31:01 it's less that than just them being non-committal about it. They will find a guy who's working for them and they will stick with that guy until it's not working for them anymore. Which makes it even more frustrating in a way because
Starting point is 00:31:17 if you don't land on the guy for the two-month window, he's a closer, you get nothing out of them, you know? But that feels like more what's happening than really a true committee or tandem situation. And what I think is the hardest thing to do is when people are doing their, say, their bidding on Sunday night, you know, I don't want to be on a BC only, or Saturday. However, we're all, we seem to always be chasing the saves that already happened and we don't get them.
Starting point is 00:31:48 You know, you need to be chasing the saves that are coming down the road. and people really need to change that approach, you know. So, yes, when Meriwether had those back-to-back saves against the Yankees, everybody opened up the wallet that weekend and spent on them. But again, this was a guy that always, he has a long history of being injured. He's got electric stuff, but we never know how long he's going to last. So those are the things we have to bake into all of these decisions. It's not just like, oh, I got to go get that guy.
Starting point is 00:32:18 He was great against the Yankees. You have to look at all of the factors and how it's going to be. going to come down. You know, I remember at the beginning, before the season, the Reds told us. They came out, said more than once, we are going to be a matchup baseball pen. We're not going to have a closer. And Amir Garrett told the world, I'm the closer, and people bought into it. And he wasn't the closer.
Starting point is 00:32:39 You know, if a team tells you there's not going to be a closer, I at least will, I will believe him at the beginning and then let them prove me wrong. So I made it a point. In 2021, I had zero Reds relievers on my wrong. roster. I just said, no thanks. Even there was a couple of times Sims was hot, got six in a row, whatever. But I just, and it killed me because I love T.J. Antone coming in this season. But when they said all that stuff, it's like, how can you do it? So I shifted my spark from T.J. Antone to Freddie Peralta, which I thought I was getting a hundred-eating reliever, but it worked out that I had, you know, I ended up with a very good starter. And I had him in town as well. I took him just because he had to relieve eligibility. But he turned out being like, like a cornerstone for my team. Well, Greg, you know, I wish you would have hit me up and told me that, you know, not to not to spend on any of the Reds because, you know, every week I'm trying to pick up
Starting point is 00:33:31 reds and spending like 50 bucks on Lucas Sims here and there. God, it was just such a mess. What do you want to say? That's the thing. It's a committee till it isn't. And I do wonder if Amir Garrett wasn't terrible from the start. Yeah. If he might have been the closing.
Starting point is 00:33:46 We'll never have yet. This is kind of off topic, but we don't have Greg on all the time. So I want to ask, because, yes, I mean, I get the idea of you'd rather anticipate this guy's going to become a closer maybe in the future. So let me invest this very small amount to stash him away. But you only have so much roster space. How long do you stick with the guy? Because I know I, in Tout Wars this past year, Jose is Nero at one point. I thought, okay, nobody's really getting it done for the Tigers.
Starting point is 00:34:20 maybe he's the guy to stash away. Of course, Chad Green for the Yankees. Stashed him away for a while. Just kept never happening. I could give you a long list of guys that I tried. But at some point, like,
Starting point is 00:34:36 at some point when you're not getting the saves, you have to move on. And that's what I struggle with is knowing how long do I trust this guy's eventually going to get me saves. Because, of course, there's no guarantee he will. And there's an option for every team almost, who could potentially be next in line for saves.
Starting point is 00:34:52 Yeah, of course. I mean, and that's a multi-layer question, but what we're trying to get our head around is, is opportunity, what the team usually does, and then how he's pitching. So it's like, all right, I can be frustrated at Lestash and Chad Green,
Starting point is 00:35:08 but he also won 10 games last year. I mean, so there's still value in, you know, middle relievers on good teams. There's value in those guys. I'd rather have Chad Green all season than any of the guys that poor Frank was spending $50 on from Cincinnati, because he's still got 10 wins and six saves. I mean, put that up against anybody in the Reds bullpen.
Starting point is 00:35:29 That comes out ahead. And Green had 99 strikeouts. Only five relievers last year had 100 or more strikeouts. You alluded to Iglesias eclipsing that mark earlier. So there is a little window of those, especially if it's a 15 team or a league only format, those guys all of a sudden, I think they're almost an underutilized asset. And I know Jeff Zimmerman was using, he would look at guys that weren't pitched on, say, Friday and Saturday, and he would try and, you know, add him for a small amount of money for the week ahead on those types of teams.
Starting point is 00:36:05 So you pick up a Chad Green instead of using a fifth starter from a bad team trying to stream a win, use a middle reliever on a good team like Chad Green, and he might get you four good innings, you six strikeouts and he might pick up a cheap vulture win. To me, that seems like almost a better gambit than when I'm picking a guy on the pirates because he has a good matchup against the team and he gets blitzed. But as far as patience, you really have to watch usage. If he gets pigeonholed in the seventh inning and he's not moving up into the eighth or he doesn't get a chance to finish a game after you've stashed him for a couple of weeks
Starting point is 00:36:43 and you need that spot for an injury or whatever, then you can move on. but if you see that his game leverage index is going up or he's getting a higher trusted or more high leverage innings like say Jonathan and Loisica last year, you might want to hold them just in case because you get those ancillary saves. The deeper the league, any save matters. So those are the things we're thinking about. All right. Let's hit a quick break.
Starting point is 00:37:08 And when we return, we'll get back to recapping the position top 15 or top 20 or so. And then we'll look at Scott's rankings here on Fantasy Baseball today. All right, so number eight at the position was Emmanuel Class A. We talked about him already. Number nine was Craig Kimberl, and he was ridiculous with the Cubs as their closer, and then he struggled with the White Sox as their setup man. Scott, the White Sox picked up Craig Kimberle's $16 million option, but the expectation is that he is going to be traded. I, again, a lot of assumption going on on this podcast, but if a team is willing to give up something for Craig Kimball, I think it's fair to to say that he's going to be there closer. Yeah, I mean, although the White Sox gave up one of their top prospects to get him,
Starting point is 00:37:52 and then he wasn't their closer. Also true. Hopefully the league learned from that, because it doesn't seem like Kimbril is as effective without that adrenaline rush pitching the ninth inning. At least I think that's what happened, right? Because he was pretty shaky in the years leading up to what seemed like him getting back on track in 2021. I had some control issues.
Starting point is 00:38:20 I know so there were some health issues in there as well. But Kimberle had really fallen off as a, just in terms of his stature as a reliever. And, you know, it wasn't so obvious that he deserved to be closing, even for the Cubs. But then he was awesome again all of a sudden. And then he got traded and he was terrible. So I suspect he'll be traded to a place where he's closing.
Starting point is 00:38:43 Certainly we want to see him go anywhere, but where he is. But I would say his fantasy stock is very much up in the air until that happens. If he does get traded to a place where he'll obviously be closing, probably rounding out the top 10 with the upside to be top three, you know. But right now, right now it remains to be seen. I've heard the Phillies rumored already with Craig Kimball. We'll see what happens there.
Starting point is 00:39:09 I think the Red Sox could definitely use him. And obviously he's got some familiarity with that team. I was thinking maybe the Padres are a possibility. He's been there before, and Mark Malanson's a free agent. Maybe the Mariners, if they want someone with experience. But we'll follow. Craig Kimberle, see what happens here. Greg, I'm going to throw two names your way. Ryan Presley, he winds up with 26 saves.
Starting point is 00:39:28 He was awesome. Great ERA, great whip. Underlying numbers, really like him. And Edwin Diaz, he was solid. 3.45 ERA. You know, maybe you want that to be a little bit lower. But 32 saves, lots of strikeouts. Swinging strike rate came back down a little bit.
Starting point is 00:39:44 But I think both of these guys are fine. You know, Ryan Presley, Edwin Diaz, top 10 options. I don't really worry about them very much. No, I agree. And, you know, it's fun. When you look at Presley's save, totally like, God, he was on Houston. They win 95 games. You're like, how do you only get 26 saves?
Starting point is 00:40:01 But then you look into their record, they had 36 wins by five runs or more last year. So they were 36 and 12 in blowouts. But they were only 21 and 19 in one run games. So they played so many games ahead that it depressed his save total. But that stuff's goofy, so I'm sure that'll come back to Earth a little bit. So I'm not too worried. I'm not worried about either one of those. And Diaz, he's just, you know, I know the post gets on him every once in a while.
Starting point is 00:40:28 He makes the back pages. He goes through like these one or two weeks stretches where his mechanics get wonky, and then he comes back to, then he gets back into a groove and then he's fine. Mark Melanson was number 12 at the position 2.23 ERA, but a 1.22 whip. those things don't really line up together here. And Scott, I just feel like his skill set is so worrisome. Pitching to contact doesn't get a lot of strikeouts here. He's turning 37 in March.
Starting point is 00:40:53 He's, maybe he gets another opportunity to close somewhere. He probably will, but, you know, he struggled a little bit down the stretch. I'm pretty worried because I feel like someone that old, like, and his skill set, it could just fall off like that. Yeah, I mean, obviously there's an extensive track record.
Starting point is 00:41:09 You understand why he profiles the way, he does because he's less of a batmisser than a extreme ground ball generator, which can lead to a low ERA with a kind of high whip. That's not anything unusual. I think he'll probably sign somewhere to close. You know, it's not a slam dunk because obviously there are much more dominant relievers out there, but just some contender is going to sign him to be their proven ninth inning guy, and he'll rack up saves probably.
Starting point is 00:41:41 Will it be a league leading total again? you know, that's impossible to predict. I would kind of doubt it. So I don't have him ranked particularly high going into next season. But if you're just looking to get a bunch of saves, I mean, I don't know that he's any less safe than anyone else who is really, like, you know, locked into the role. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:09 It's the ninth of the guy. Number 13 at the position was Will Smith, Scotty, from your World Series winning Atlanta Braves. 3.44 ERA, 1.13 whip. He had 37 saves. He had six blown saves. He had seven losses, but he's still getting paid a decent amount next season,
Starting point is 00:42:24 and he performed in the playoffs. He had six saves. He did not allow a run in the postseason. So, Greg, all those things combined. I feel pretty safe saying that Will Smith will once again be the Atlanta Braves closer. At least to start. I agree.
Starting point is 00:42:37 And again, the one thing we don't know is who's going to sign what when all of those free agency moves start happening. But you see Melanson's name link, they're even saying maybe going back to San Francisco, not as they close or just to be a high leverage arm. So Melanson thought he was going to San Diego, supposedly to play for a contender,
Starting point is 00:42:57 which everybody was tweeting about once Atlanta won the World Series, kind of like, how's that feel now? But we'll see. So, yeah, I'm more, I treat Melanson with trepidation, but I would be more than happy to get, Will Smith as I win in my own as my first closer.
Starting point is 00:43:14 I mean, at least I know I have somebody again entrenched in the roll give me 30 saves and then I'll figure out the rest. All right. Number 14 at the position was Chad Green. He was the Yankee set up man.
Starting point is 00:43:24 A bunch of strikeouts, six saves. Greg mentioned the 10 wins. I will say this. And this is just my Yankee fandom homerism coming out. Chad Green in high leverage sucks.
Starting point is 00:43:35 Like the guy, the biggest spot in the game comes up, does the exact, opposite of what you need him to do. One run game gives up a solo homer. Like, I'm telling you, it was so frustrating watching this guy. He's got good stuff, but like, this is your most Adam Azer moment. Oh my God. I feel like Adam Azer is back hosting this podcast. He was so front. I'm telling you, it's weird too because like the numbers are good. He's got great numbers,
Starting point is 00:43:58 but just like in the worst spots, the guy would just mess up all the time. Anyway, let's move on from Taggart. 15th of the position was Paul Sewell. He came out of nowhere. Three point O6 ERA. Fifth highest K percentage in baseball. He had 11 saves. Greg, I'll go back to you on this one. What are you thinking with the Mariners bullpen as of now? I'm going to avoid them. That's just another situation. There's too many darts. I mean, heck, the Steckin Rider was pretty much the closer down the stretch in September. And they might have to trade them because they have too many arms. They've got Ken Giles coming back from surgery this year. They've got Andreas Munoz. He was hitting 100 miles per hour
Starting point is 00:44:35 at the end of the season in the minors. So I mean, this, you want to talk about a bull open it. Any contender that's looking to trade, this is where it's at, but they can hold them for a little bit. And if for some reason Seattle doesn't compete, then they'll trade Giles and they'll just move up the next guy. They've really modeled themselves almost like the race. They're just, so Sewell is going to probably be the highest leverage reliever, the HLR, which means he'll get some saves, he'll get some wins, and you'll help your ratios and strikeouts. But you can't take them just to be a closer. So in an NFBC draft, Draft and hold, probably the only one I would take was like probably Andre's Munoz in the 40th round.
Starting point is 00:45:16 And maybe I can get 10 saves in the second half if they trade Giles. But otherwise for me, I don't know how you guys are, but I'll let somebody else try and figure out that dartboard. 16th and 17th, I'll throw both of these your way, Scotty. A roll of his Chapman, talked about him a little bit. He had a 4.95 ERA from June 1st on, which was when they started to crack down on the sticky substance situation. And it seemed look very similar to James Carrencheck, right? These guys are both fireballers, but half the time, they don't know where the ball is going. So it seems like Chapman might have actually been affected by that.
Starting point is 00:45:46 And it's pretty scary. He's turning 34 years old in February as well. And I'll also throw Giovanni Gallegos your way. Finally got a shot. 14 saves down the stretch. Seems like at least to start for the Cardinals, he will be the guy for them. Well, maybe. I mean, they made a change at manager.
Starting point is 00:46:02 So it's kind of back to square one, it feels like. the thing about that makes moving guy goes into the closer role difficult is the guy eats a lot of innings a lot of leverage innings so if you're confining him to the ninth inning you're probably sacrificing some quality innings from a really dependable pitcher
Starting point is 00:46:20 so I can understand why they've hesitated to move him there I don't think we're going to see Alex Reyes back in the role whether or not he wins a rotation spot Jordan Hicks he's supposedly competing for a rotation spot too it's hard to see them going with Hicks over Gallegos to begin the year, but I could definitely see them fading Gallegos if somebody else emerges
Starting point is 00:46:47 who's capable of handling the ninth inning. As you're sitting here talking about this, this almost feels like the exact sort of team that Melanson would go to. He won't be expensive. Yeah. They have a great infield so he can just throw cutters and let him hit ground. balls over to Nolan Aeronado or wherever they get to be shortstop. And as you said, I've said this, I said this last year. I was on a show with, you know, Justin and Paul Spore and a few others.
Starting point is 00:47:16 And I was like, I love Gallegos, but I don't like how St. Louis uses them. Because as you said, they like them in the seventh or eighth or at that moment, they need them the most. They never really put them in the ninth because they figured they could just piece that together. So, you know, as we're talking about, almost the light bulb is kind of went out. I'm like, oh, this, this almost feels. like where Melanz could end up, but we'll never know. But I agree with your sentiment about Gallegos. Yep. All right, 18, 19, and 20, we'll get to here.
Starting point is 00:47:42 And then we've got like 10 minutes left to talk about rankings. But it's fine. We've honestly talked about a lot of the guys that are on the rankings list anyway. But 18th was Andrew Kittridge. He had an awesome year for the Tampa Bay raise. But we know the deal with Tampa Bay. They had 14 different relievers pick up a save last season, six different relievers with multiple saves for Tampa Bay.
Starting point is 00:48:01 Jake McGee at 19. He was the closer for most of the year for the Giants. Camilo Duval was awesome in September, and it seemed like he was the closer, or at least a ninth inning reliever, in the postseason as well. And then 20th was Matt Barnes, who had an absolutely brutal second half,
Starting point is 00:48:15 6.48 ERA, an ex-fip over five. Hansel Robles had three saves for the Red Sox in September, but he's now a free agent. It seems like they really like Garrett Whitlock, but I have to imagine the Red Sox invest something in the back end of their bullpen. We just don't know what that something is yet. So, Greg, what do you think?
Starting point is 00:48:33 I'll throw Tampa Bay your way. Good luck. The San Francisco Giants, seems all right. And then the Red Sox. What do you think about those three? So Tampa Bay, you never invest in the reliever that led them in saves the year before. So Kitchers is a fade. They'll figure somebody else out.
Starting point is 00:48:48 And I joked on reliever recon that this would be the perfect team to sign Hector Near East. And all of a sudden, he'll become an absolute stud in the ninth inning because they'll hone his arsenal and he'll just take off. but Jake McGee, I don't think he was fully healthy, especially because in the playoff game, they didn't bring him in to face back-to-back lefties. They left Doval in there, which was great that they trusted Deval to that point. But I was like, there's no way that McGee was 100%. But Deval was another guy I talked about on the athletic as someone I wanted to watch all season long. The Red Sox, I think they had to do something.
Starting point is 00:49:25 Barnes has always struggled with command, and that second half was scary. They've got to do something. I don't know what it's going to be. They've got to sign someone. They have to trade for someone like the Red Sox. You cannot go into 2020 saying that you want to compete with Matt Barnes again as they're closer.
Starting point is 00:49:41 I don't think so. Let's take a look here at these early 2022 relief pitch of rankings from Scotty. They're live on the site. CBS Sports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. Top five. Not really many surprises here. Josh Hater at number one.
Starting point is 00:49:54 Liam Hendrix is second. Emmanuel Class A. Third. Reisel Iglesias is fourth. And then we have Kenley, Hanson rounding out the top five. Greg, what do you think about this aggressive rank? We talked about Class A, but Class A in the top three, what do you think about that, how aggressive that is?
Starting point is 00:50:12 I'm okay with it, you know, it's the changing times. And we're ranking for this year, not based on past pedigree. Here's a fun staff for you. His last 32 appearances, 32.2 innings pitched, 0.28 ERA, 0.55 whip, 33 strikeouts, two walks. Oh, gosh. Yeah. And for class saying, it was his last 32 appearances. I mean, so, you know, he throws up a 102 mile per hour cutter that's a bowling ball. And here's the thing. If he ever gets more movement on his slider, then the strikeout rate's going to go up. So, I mean, you're still getting it on the ground floor on a 24-year-old kid that just throws heat. All right, Scott, I think you've got a believer in me.
Starting point is 00:50:57 You got a believer in Greg. Top three. Somehow that point two ADRA, I'm more impressed by that. Like, if you told me it was a zero. Somehow, how do you get a point two ADRA? That's amazing. Yeah. To me, it's the 33 strikeouts to two walks.
Starting point is 00:51:13 I mean, I love K-minus B. I mean, that's just fantastic. Yeah, look, and talking about Class A, like, the biggest knock on him, you know, coming up and joining their bullpen was command. Was he going to struggle too much with the walks? And yeah, as you highlighted there, not an issue for him down the stretch. Six through 10 in the rankings,
Starting point is 00:51:31 we have Ryan Presley, Edwin Diaz, Jordan Romano, Craig Kimberl, and A Rolldis Chapman. And again, we spoke a lot about these names here. They all seem rock solid. We'll see if Romano can hold on to the role. A Roll this Chapman's guy, you didn't really talk about him much. Is there anything that you'd like to add?
Starting point is 00:51:46 Like, putting him in the top 10, I feel like it's just because there's no one else to put there, right? I'm a little worried that he's fading. Yeah. He did bounce back after those initial struggles with the sticky substance band as so many other pitchers did. So I don't really think he's like on the verge
Starting point is 00:52:05 of losing his job, but he's not, he may not be, he may be a little more worrisome than we've known him to be throughout his career. And, yeah, I mean, ranking him behind Craig Kimball, who has,
Starting point is 00:52:21 obvious concerns, I think spells that out. But at the same time, I mean, Chapman's the Yankees closer. And he's a closer who's probably going to strike out 100 batters or close to it. 11 through 15 in the ranks. We have Ranger Suarez. Again, pops up here as a spark, starting pitcher as relief pitcher. We have Gio Vinegaegos at 12. Camilo Duval at 13. Will Smith at 14. Scott, I got to say, the Will Smith ranking, it seems a little bit low. Like, if you wanted to, move him ahead of Chapman and get him inside the top 10, I wouldn't have an issue with that. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:52:59 Does Will Smith really have more job security than Chapman? I feel like... It's probably the same, right? To start the year? I don't know. Will Smith seemed like he was on the verge of losing his job at so many points last year. Finished with a 344 ERA, a 417 FIPP,
Starting point is 00:53:17 really vulnerable to the long ball. And he has some walk issues too. I do think, you know, other than Tyler Matzik, he's the most talented reliever the Braves have. But I don't want to denigrate him too much because obviously he got 37 saves this past year. And they never did move off of him. And he's signed to a big contract. So he'll probably hold the role all season. But he has some shortcomings that make it so.
Starting point is 00:53:49 I don't think he deserves to be ranked as the number one reliever. All right. I mean, it's all about the money, too, Scotty. Remember, this guy's getting a big chunk of change. So usually it shouldn't factor into decisions, but sometimes it does. It's like part of the politics in baseball. I want to point out Ranger Suarez. I have him 11th here.
Starting point is 00:54:06 That's for Roto specifically. In points leagues, I have Ranger Suarez as the number five reliever after just Hader Hendricks, Class A, and Iglesias. Yep, which I think makes perfect sense. Greg, I wanted to ask you about Scott Barlow, number 15 here in the rankings. And the Royal situation was another one, which was kind of a mess. I mean, eventually Scott Barlow emerged, and it seems like the team had confidence in him eventually. But there's a few names there that seem pretty talented, right?
Starting point is 00:54:35 Like Josh Stallmont seems like he's a pretty good reliever. So what are you thinking about the Royal situation? Well, we have to watch with him. And this is one of those situations that, you know, Scott was talking about earlier, is, you know, how long do we hold on to a guy or this, that, and the other? They had a lot of injuries in the second half, so that actually gave, you know, Barlow, he had the role for a change instead of being the, being the Paul Seewald of that bullpen, he actually got to be the guy, and he did well with it.
Starting point is 00:55:06 He's always been a talented reliever. So, you know, I'm okay with starting him there, but we have to see what Kansas City says because last year they were another team that was adamant that we don't really have a closer. We're just going to play matchups. So, you know, Frank against the Tigers, you've got the seventh inning. But Scott against the Angels, you get the seventh inning because that's what kind of the lineup we're anticipating. So Stallmont could be a sleeper this year.
Starting point is 00:55:31 He could be a guy that surprises if Kansas City, I think they want to contend. But if they fall off, they could deal Barlow because he's in his arbitration window. Then that could open a pathway to other people. I'll have to see. They're saying they want to sign some veteran relievers, but they're not. not going to go to the top of the food chain. I could see that I'm targeting a guy like Corey Canebel or somebody of that ilk, but I don't think they'll go at the top end of the food chain to try and get like a rise of the glaciers.
Starting point is 00:55:59 16 through 20 in the rankings, we have Mark Malanson, Luis Severino, Cal Quantrell, Drew Steckenrider, and Dylan Floro out there with the Miami Marlins. Scott, we see a few names here that pop up. I assume Severino and Cal Quantra will both have SPARP eligibility. Is that correct? Yes. Yeah, I mean, otherwise I want to rank them in Relief Pitcher, Frank. Severino will be only Relief Pitcher eligible to begin the season. Okay.
Starting point is 00:56:26 We expect him to be in the Yankees' rotation, and by May he should have starting pitcher eligibility again. Those two obviously, like I was saying for Suarez, Severino and Quantrell move up in Points Leagues. I actually have them 12 and 13 at Relief Pitcher in Points Leagues right after O'Roldes Chapman and Craig Kimbril. come Severino and Quantrell. Melanson, you know, if he does sign somewhere where it looks like he's obviously going to be the closer, I don't know how much I could move him up, really. You could argue as high as 12th
Starting point is 00:57:02 overtaking Giovanni Gallegos because of the concerns for him. But obviously, I think Gallegos is a much better pitcher than Melanson. So there's a good possibility Malanson ends up being undervalued again, even as the MLB saves leader. Steck and Ryder, we talked about him. Dylan Floro, I think,
Starting point is 00:57:25 I mean, Don Manningley's a manager who's always liked the dedicated closer. And he's, you know, in 2020, it was Brandon Kinsler, a guy kind of like Dylan Floro, that, you know, veteran guy relies on weak contact more than missing bats. Floreau looked like he really stabilized
Starting point is 00:57:42 that roll down the stretch last year after they traded. I'm having trouble with names. the guy they traded to the Astros, who was their closer at the start of the... Jimmy Garcia. Yeah. After they traded him
Starting point is 00:57:53 and we didn't know what direction they were going to go, Dylan Floreau didn't seem like the obvious candidate, but, you know, how many saves did he get in September? He got a bunch of saves in September. So provided the Marlins don't bring in anybody else, I think Dylan Floreau could be... Could be a sneaky pick in the late,
Starting point is 00:58:16 rounds because it seems like Mattingly has trust in him let me see how many saves it was so from August 26th on Floro got 10 saves that's yeah that's pretty massive so if you picked him up around the trade deadline that was in your Rotel league that that was a potential league winner just based on the saves alone right getting getting that volume that late in the season Scott I actually texted you while we were what we were recording right now heard in the background is there I want yeah no I didn't actually but But I want to know.
Starting point is 00:58:48 Like, is there any other sparse that we need to know about? Like I mentioned Severino. We mentioned Ranger Suarez, Calquantral. I think Carlos Hernandez is going to be SPARP eligible. I think same thing for Christian Javier. We don't know if he's going to be back in the rotation or not, but he's a possibility. There are a few guys like that who it's up in the air, what role they'll have. Christian Javier, who you mentioned, Michael Kopeck of the White Sox could be very exciting
Starting point is 00:59:16 if they move him to the rotation. Oh, yeah. Nate Pearson of the Blue Jays, Alex Reyes, who we talked about. That four, that's really the risk-reward quartet there, all former, well, Christian Aviar was an elite prospect, but he put up huge numbers in the minors, and we've already seen him have success in the majors.
Starting point is 00:59:36 So that four is the one I'm looking at the most closely. We just have to see how those roles shake out. I guess Garrett Whitlock could be part of that group if the Red Sox are serious about moving. him to the rotation. Further down, you have Aaron Ashby of the Brewers, A.J. Puck of the athletics. I guess potentially Denelson Lamed
Starting point is 00:59:56 of the Padres. I don't know if they're going to try him in the rotation or not, but of course, we've been really excited about him in the past. Drew Rasmussen of the Rays, if they stick with him as a rotation option, he could be pretty useful. And
Starting point is 01:00:14 I don't, I think that's, I think those are the big ones or even medium-sized ones. The ones you need to care about in any capacity. Yeah, we'll go with like a small to medium on the, you know, the t-shirt size scale in terms of those sparks there. Greg, any other names that we, look, we talked about a bunch of names today. Is there anyone else that we haven't talked about that maybe you're excited to, if you're doing early drafts, maybe take a shot on a little bit later on, or maybe someone that no one's
Starting point is 01:00:41 talking about that you think is going to get an opportunity early in the season to be a team's closer? Is there anyone stand out for you? We don't know. The hardest thing now is like there's just so much gray area. There's guys like that I like super late. You know, we're doing these goofy things. Like we don't know what's going to happen in Colorado.
Starting point is 01:01:03 We don't know what's going to happen in a few places. So like if you're going to take David Bednar, you're almost going to have to handcuff them with Chris Stratton because they were using both of them in September for saves. So you can't just get. They are back to back in my rankings, but not in Strach. Yeah, you almost have to. You just kind of piggyback them and see what happens with how that goes.
Starting point is 01:01:21 We want to see what's going to happen in that Washington bullpen. I like Scott Efrost as a sleeper with Chicago Cubs. No one seems to be talking about them, but Wick and Hewer did nothing to distinguish themselves as the closer in that bullpen. You know, we're watching what happens with the Dodgers. There's trying to get in there. Does that mean we're looking at Gratterol maybe eventually down the road or Vessie? you know, I kind of like Gregory Soto this year, almost as a poor man's role as Chapman. I think if he can get a little more swinging strike in his game, he's got the V-Lo and he's got youth on his side, unlike some of the people we've been talking about.
Starting point is 01:01:58 Now, that was a weird one because in October, A.J. Hinch, early October, like right after the same. Finally said he's my closer. Yeah, nobody declares closers anymore. And A.J. Hinch is going to be the guy to do it. And it's going to be Gregory Soto when the Tigers are looking to add this offseason. Like, I don't trust anything about that. And I had Michael Fulmer ranked ahead until I saw that. He is Greg Jewett. Make sure to follow him on Twitter at G-J-E-W-E-T-T-9.
Starting point is 01:02:29 Again, Greg Jewett, you can find all of his work over on his reliever recon Patreon page and over on the athletic as well. Greg, we appreciate you coming on, buddy. Thank you both. I'm Florida and honored to be here. This is always one of the gold standards of fantasy baseball podcast. So all the guys on recon were cheering when I told them you invited me on. Nice. Yeah, I appreciate that. They probably don't realize that I host this podcast now.
Starting point is 01:02:53 So I don't know if it's still the gold standard. But I do appreciate that. For Scott and Greg, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Tuesday. Bye-bye.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.