Fantasy Baseball Today - Everybody is Hurt! Sleepers and Breakouts 3.0 (3/23 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 23, 2021

Monday was not kind with pitching injuries. Let's start with Zac Gallen who is dealing with forearm tightness (1:08). How far should we drop him? ... We saw two closers go down in Kirby Yates and Jose... Leclerc (7:31). Who do we like for saves on the Blue Jays and Rangers? ... Our email of the day asks about the possibility of platoon between Josh Bell and Ryan Zimmerman (20:00). ... Sleepers 3.0 (23:53)! Chris is buying in to Josh Rojas and the entire Seattle Mariners team while Scott is in on Corey Kluber. ... Can Jorge Polanco come anywhere close to his 2019 season (34:55)? What is the expectation for Freddy Peralta? ... Breakouts 3.0 (42:43)! Just how good can Brandon Woodruff, Tarik Skubal and Victor Robles be? ... Why is Scott buying in on Amir Garrett plus how early should you draft Shohei Ohtani in a daily lineup league (51:20)? ... We wrap up with some Team Name Tuesday (59:48)! ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.
Starting point is 00:00:24 Everybody is hurt. What is happening? Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today. Frank Sample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Chris has to loosen up the arm. He's dealing with a little bit of a stinger there. Slop wrong or something, yeah. Actually, my shoulder has kind of been banged up a little bit.
Starting point is 00:00:38 I really need to get this checked out, but talk about that another day. Apologies to those who are watching us live. We had a bit of a delay here. We have some technological issues, but if you're listening to us, we should be fine. Everything's good. Of course, when I say everybody is hurt,
Starting point is 00:00:51 I'm not talking about Chris, but I am referring to Zach Gallen, Kirby Yates, and Jose LeClerc. We'll get to those injuries in just a little bit. Plus, we have updates to our... our sleepers, breakouts, and bust, and a little bit of team name Tuesday. So let's get things started with Zach Allen.
Starting point is 00:01:09 He was scratched on Monday with lateral forearm soreness in his pitching arm. And I saw this little note from Nick Savale, who is a physical therapist. He tweeted this out. Lateral forearm tightness is not the side of the UCL. This is much better to hear than medial forearm. We shouldn't even be thinking Tommy John
Starting point is 00:01:28 with this type of location. Regardless, it's very scary. What do we do with Zach Gellon? Scott, how far are we dropping them in the ranks? I dropped into 32 in my starting pitcher rankings, which with the intention of hoping I get him a lot there, I think maybe the scariness is being overblown a little just because it's so new into the season
Starting point is 00:01:54 and a lot of people just drafted or haven't drafted yet. And so it feels like the sky has fallen. but it's not. I mean, there is that favorable sign. There are other favorable signs. He's actually been getting treatment for this injury for 10 days,
Starting point is 00:02:10 which means when he started on St. Patty's Day, it was already going on, and they let him go out there and start. It wasn't a good start for what it's worth, but apparently didn't feel it on any of his pitches, but the curveball. Curve ball's an important pitch for him. Obviously, you don't want to feeling it at all.
Starting point is 00:02:26 But I think it's likely he rests it for 10 days to two weeks. It takes another couple weeks to build up again, and then we're seeing him in mid-April. And, you know, Chris, it was funny. We were talking about Zach Gallen, his possible innings limit on the show yesterday, and Chris said, you know,
Starting point is 00:02:45 it may be one of those situations where he sprains his ankle misses three weeks, and then there's suddenly there's no innings limit anymore. Maybe this is that sprained ankle, and there's actually a silver lining to this. Yeah, I mean, it's not, But he's not less likely to have that sprained angle. Of course.
Starting point is 00:03:04 Yeah. You know, so I think the thing when you're talking about injury risk is when a player is actually injured, I think that's when, you know, it is time to, to drop them. You know, if it's like, Zach Gallen had a forearm injury 12 months ago, well, yeah, he's a pitcher. He throws like 3,000 pitches over the course of the season. He's probably going to have some forearm soreness at some point. But he has sort of. forearm soreness right now. And so that is a concern, but I agree with Scott. It doesn't seem
Starting point is 00:03:35 right now as if this is a reason to, uh, you know, totally panic. The sky is not falling. Um, yeah. I'm pretty sure the sky is falling, Chris. Okay, fine. The sky is falling. I, I typically overreact to stuff like this. And that's, you know, something I brought up to Scott before. Scott usually keeps me in check because I'm always trying to make like crazy rash moves whenever anything like this happens. So I was freaking out today. And then we, had all this closer stuff and I'm just like, dude, we're not even a week out from the season yet and everyone is hurt. This is just like, I'm losing my mind. This is a relative. I was actually thinking the other day, like there have been relatively few injuries so far this spread. You think so?
Starting point is 00:04:14 I was thinking the same thing. Yeah. Yeah. So Scott, you said you moved into 32 at starting pitcher. Yeah. Yeah. So that's at the end of the tier for me. That's the end of the next best things, which is where Paddock, Ian Anderson, Jesus, Lazzardo is. I have Gallon right behind. them. And like I said, I intentionally moved him to the end of the tier because I, like, I was actually encouraged seeing all these fantasy analysts like Frank, losing their minds over it. Because like, oh, maybe I can get a lot more Zach Gallen now for really, for really less than he should go for. Yeah, I mean, it's the kind of thing where like the fact that he didn't injure it throwing, allegedly, you know, obviously we don't know that for sure. But that seems to be the case.
Starting point is 00:04:56 That's what we know right now. He felt it when he was swinging a bat. Yeah. that. I mean, that doesn't mean he didn't injure it. Right. But, you know, it's, it's a lot easier for Zach Allen to just not swing hard than it is for him to not throw hard. You know, that doesn't, none of this necessarily guarantees that he'll stay healthy, but he's a starting pitcher. None of nothing guarantees that he'll stay healthy. I actually, in my first look, I moved him down to what I guess would be the top of the same tier that you probably have him in. Obviously, the names are a little different, but I have him. right ahead of, I have him 26th in my first look at it,
Starting point is 00:05:34 ahead of Charlie Morton, ahead of Chris Paddock, ahead of Max Fried, Hazers-Lazardo. And the way I look at it is, he's an injury risk right now for sure. Is he more of an injury risk than Charlie Morton? I guess he's hurt right now,
Starting point is 00:05:48 so yes, slightly more, but is he more of a risk, you know, probably less of an injury risk than Chris Paddock, although Chris Paddock had like 115 career innings heading into the 2019 season, because of injuries.
Starting point is 00:06:01 Yeah. You know, Hazel Sozardo, tons of injuries in his career. Sixtho Sanchez has had several elbow issues in his career. So, I think that kind of range. And,
Starting point is 00:06:14 you know, I have like nine pitchers between 106 and 1.25 in my rankings, maybe a little more than that. So, you know, probably in that range. Yeah. Somewhere around there.
Starting point is 00:06:26 I wouldn't move him below Denelson Lemette for sure, who's 35. for me. Right. Right. Yeah. Now that makes sense. And, you know,
Starting point is 00:06:34 kind of my thinking, too, was I didn't want to, I didn't want to drop him so little that I was going to end up taking him two rounds before I had to. I kind of moved him as far down as I felt comfortable moving him. And still thinking I could get him was kind of the way I approached it. I've got a 15-team salary cap draft coming up. It's either tomorrow or Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:06:57 I should probably know when it is. But, I'll let everyone know how much Zach Gallen goes for because I'm actually interested to see for myself what that price tag is going to look like. I originally moved them down to SP21 just behind Steven Strassberg. I was like, all right, well, Strasberg's kind of hurt.
Starting point is 00:07:12 Like, you know, they're two different body parts but we'll just lump these guys together. And I was like, nah, I should probably lower them a little bit more. So I dropped them down to SP 31 myself just behind names like Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, Jesus Lazzardo, and Zach Granky. So that is the range. If you are drafting the next couple of days
Starting point is 00:07:28 and want to take a shot on Zach Allen, That's what we're looking at. Kirby Yates is dealing with a flexor pronator strain and will miss a few weeks. He had surgery last season to remove bone chips in his elbow and he has no spring chicken either. He's 33 or 34 years old. So Chris, does this automatically mean Jordan Romano
Starting point is 00:07:47 is the next man up? Yeah, and I think I moved Romano. I want to say he was like 15. I don't think he'll, you know, I don't believe he's just like the clothes. forever now, but he's a pretty good pitcher who figures to be the closer at the start of the season. And right now, there aren't much more than about 15 pitchers who I can say that for. Yeah, Jordan Romano picked up some saves last year down the stretch for the Blue Jays.
Starting point is 00:08:13 He had two saves with the team. He had five holds. He had a 1.23 ERA 0.89 whip with nearly 13 strikeouts per nine. He was very good last year, Jordan Romano. So he- And he did get anointed the closer after Ken Giles went down. And then Romano himself got hurt. So Rafael Delis ended up getting most of the saves down the stretch for the Blue Jays. For what it's worth, the manager did say he doesn't necessarily feel the need to name a closer. He's a manager. Right. That's kind of the company line right now. And also, the pitching coach Pete Walker just over the weekend was saying Jordan Romano is a closer in the making.
Starting point is 00:08:53 So I think it's probably going to be Romano. And I think he could potentially keep the job. It just depends how many weeks Yates is out and how good Romano is in his absence. So, Scott, who would you rather have, Jordan Romano or Jordan Hicks? I would rather have Romano. I don't really know when Hicks is going to take over the job for the Cardinals. It seems pretty clear to me that they want him as their closer, but he's made two appearances this spring, I think, and it hasn't. So I was looking at that.
Starting point is 00:09:25 The one thing I did notice was his very first. first appearance of the spring was, uh, gosh, I think it was, uh, 22 pitch at bat. That was the 22 pitch at bat to Luis Guillermo and it was. He only made, uh,
Starting point is 00:09:45 technically one, uh, he only faced one batter in that appearance. And like, you know, obviously you would rather him not have thrown, needed 22 pitches to, uh, to get through Luis Luis Giorme. But, you know, that, you know, like he's only thrown like two and two thirds innings or something in four appearances, but I think you can kind of give him a slide on that. The stuff apparently is. Yeah. Every. No, I'm just, I'm kind of going by the reactions to his appearances where it sounds
Starting point is 00:10:14 like they're happy where he is physically, but they want, they don't feel like he's quite in sync yet. So I don't know how long is it going to take him to get there, but I do think they want him there. I'd rather have Romano. How about Romano versus guys like Greg Holland and Daniel Bard's got? so that I actually slot him in between those two. Oh, I have him. I have Holland right ahead of him.
Starting point is 00:10:35 I feel pretty good about Holland, maybe too good about Holland. Holland is kind of like the last closer that I feel like, I don't know. I mean, I draft a lot of Soria and Bard too after Holland. But like Holland's the last closer that I feel pretty comfortable
Starting point is 00:10:52 will actually be a full-time closer and keep his job. And maybe, maybe I'm maybe that's maybe I'm basing that on too little because Mike methidi was kind of all over the place last year and Holland was there the whole time but that's that's how I'm approaching Holland I have Romano just behind him all right so Jordan Romano he's in that closer two range or like a closer one for Scott because he likes to wait at the position but yeah I mean if you've already drafted and you took Kirby Yates on your team chances are unless your league is a
Starting point is 00:11:24 saves, plus holds league. Jordan Romano is a free agent. So just go out and look for that name. He's the one we believe to be the next man up for the Toronto Blue Jays. How about the Texas Rangers? Jose LeClerc will miss extended an extended period of time with elbow soreness. Scott,
Starting point is 00:11:39 I meant to ask you this before we started. So I'll just ask you on the air. Do you mind if I steal your president joke? No, go ahead. Chris, which president do you like more? Bush or Kennedy?
Starting point is 00:11:50 I didn't, I didn't ask that. That's a dangerous question. I think Kennedy's probably better. Okay. But I don't know. It's funny that those aren't just names of former presidents. Those are like the two biggest names in American politics, right?
Starting point is 00:12:07 Bush and Kennedy? Yes, of course. Matt Bush and Ian Kennedy, two of the biggest names in politics today. And two relievers that are in the Texas Rangers bullpen who are basically the two, the last guys standing in this bullpen. Jonathan Hernandez is dealing with a UCL
Starting point is 00:12:23 injury. He was awesome last year. Might have been in the closer mix. DeMarcus Evans, who I've been scouting for a few years now, he's been a prospect for the Rangers. He throws extremely hard. It gets a lot of strikeouts and made his debut last year. He's dealing with a lat injury. So we're left with Matt Bush, who
Starting point is 00:12:39 has not pitched since 2018 in the major leagues and has had two elbow surgeries since. And he was the closer for the Rangers back in 2017. He had 10 saves then. And Ian Kennedy, who had 30 saves back for the Royals in 2019, and then just completely. completely imploded last season. So Chris, who do you think between these two, if you had to pick one,
Starting point is 00:12:58 Matt Bush or Ian Kennedy? I think it's probably Kennedy. Sorry, I got very distracted just now because so I have a Discord channel with some of my friends and we play a Call of Duty war zone together and we use Discord to chat in game. And apparently I had left my vocals attached to the Discord all day, and they just logged in to play without me and heard me talking about fantasy baseball and started talking to me. Hopefully you guys couldn't hear them, but that just took me out of the game. But yes, if I had to pick one, if you're forcing me to pick between Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush, I would just say that this is why I don't want to draft or really care about relief
Starting point is 00:13:46 pitchers. Scott, who do you think between those two? Bush and Kennedy, and these are nothing more than like third closer specs, late, late, late in your roteau or categories draft? I mean, other than the Tigers and Oriole situation, this is clearly the last situation I'm targeting for saves. I don't know, Tanner Scott might be a clearer choice, even the knees guys.
Starting point is 00:14:09 I just feel like the way their names have been brought up, it's kind of brought up Matt Bush. Oh, and also Ian Kennedy. Like, that's how it's always phrased. So I presume that means they're leading Bush, but that's obviously not me going on much. I rank them right next to each other. And they both pitched on Monday.
Starting point is 00:14:28 Matt Bush, a clean inning with two strikeouts. Ian Kennedy, also a clean inning. He did walk one. He did not get any strikeouts. I believe I saw Matt Bush was throwing 95 miles per hour with his fastball. He got two whiffs on 10 pitches. Ian Kennedy was throwing 93. miles per hour. He had one whiff on 15
Starting point is 00:14:48 pitches. So I don't know that that means anything. This is a terrible closer situation. I would probably lean with Kennedy just because he's pitched more recently and has been more effective recently. Who do you think is older between the two of them?
Starting point is 00:15:04 I think I... Actually... Let's go with Matt Bush. It is Ian Kennedy. He is just a year older, but... Yikes. I was wondering if I could get you to guess Bush or maybe think he was like super young
Starting point is 00:15:20 because he's only been pitching for three years in the majors, but you know, for those of you, Youngens, he was a former top pick back in 2007 as a third baseman. Wow. Yikes. I believe that. Scott?
Starting point is 00:15:36 Correct me if I'm wrong. San Diego Padres. I know he was a former first overall pick. I didn't remember I thought he was a pitcher, but No, shortstop. Shortstop is where he started out. Yeah, it was the first overall pick. I think he was like a signability thing.
Starting point is 00:15:52 Yeah, I mean, it used to be a lot, a signability thing. It went through a stretch there where the number one overall pick was often, often didn't live up to that. But where's he been the past two years? He hasn't pitched since 2018. 2004 draft. Wow. Yeah, it's a long time ago.
Starting point is 00:16:11 Yeah, he was the first overall pick back in 2004. I read that Matt Bush had two elbow surgeries since 2018, so he might have just got hurt once, Scott, and then tried to work his way back, and he got hurt again. So I was reading a little bit about him earlier today. Some other news items, nothing major outside of those injuries. Julio Taran, back tightness, velocity has been up this spring, a very late sleeper and deeper leagues.
Starting point is 00:16:38 So he got hurt on Monday. Spencer Turnbull is in the COVID health and safety protocols. so this might ensure that both Terrick Scouble and Casey Mize are in the opening day rotation for the Detroit Tigers. Scott, I'm pretty sure you're getting our group texts from an hour ago. They're just arriving into your phone now. This is your fault, Frank. It's not my fault for not muting my phone.
Starting point is 00:16:59 It's your fault. You're texting me, you know, an hour ago. I'm sorry. And now I'm just getting it. Casey Mise has been a bit of a mess this spring. His velocity is like three miles per hour up. And so I'm excited about that. but like I really would have liked to have moved him
Starting point is 00:17:16 like into the top 200. I really like his profile. I think he can be really good. But 10 walks and 10 innings so far in the spring is forcing me to keep him outside of the top 250. You hate to see it. Rinaldo Lopez was optioned to the Chicago White Sox alternate training site. That means that Carlos Rodon will be the team's fifth starter in their rotation.
Starting point is 00:17:40 We spoke about him a little bit on yesterday's podcast. Denelson Lemette will make his spring training debut on Wednesday against the Giants. He's been throwing simulated games to this point, but has yet to exceed 29 pitches. That does not mean that he will be ready to start the season on time. But definitely worth monitoring to see what his velocity looks like. If he's throwing his breaking pitches, et cetera, et cetera. Again, that is Denelson Lemette. Enrique Kike Hernandez has done, quote,
Starting point is 00:18:06 everything possible to be the Red Sox leadoff hitter to start the season. We haven't talked much about Kike Hernandez. is now with the Red Sox. ADP is 362.8. Scott, anything to see here. I mean, if he's leading off for the Red Sox, their lineup's pretty good. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:21 Yeah, I mean, it's going to be a low batting average. It's going to be modest power, no speed. And just, you know, a lineup spot can't carry a player that far.
Starting point is 00:18:35 I'm not saying he's going to be useless all season, but you don't really need to invest draft capital in him. You know, he'll be somebody. maybe you pick up mid-season because you have a hole to fill. That's about it. Philly's starting pitcher, Zach Eflin, is expected to avoid the injured list
Starting point is 00:18:49 as he works his way back from a back injury that he's been dealing with here in the spring. And sticking with the Phillies, J.T. Rilumuto could make his spring debut as early as Tuesday. He is returning from a broken thumb that he suffered back in February. Let's quickly promote a few things that we got here. The madness is underway,
Starting point is 00:19:08 and you may be wondering, how do I actually watch all of these games what's on CBS and what's not on CBS. Where the heck is Duke? Relax. It's easy. Go to the CBS Sports app on your connected TV or phone. And from there you'll see every tournament game available to watch
Starting point is 00:19:23 whether it's on CBS or March Madness Live. Think of it like a gateway to all the actions. So download the CBS Sports app now, so you never miss a minute of the NCAA tournament. Chris, what are you doing? I was trying to be, it was like a gateway, but I did it wrong. I guess it should have been like this. I think that would have been trying to make a gateway with my hands.
Starting point is 00:19:43 You do like trying to provide a visual element to get people to subscribe on YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. Yeah, I appreciate that. I appreciate the visuals here. But while I'm reading stuff, it's a little distracting it. Just a tad bit. We do have an email of the day. This one's from Brian Bowles.
Starting point is 00:20:01 Does Josh Bell lose at bats to Ryan Zimmerman this season? Or do you think Bell can be counted on for a full-time role? And this is not the first time I've seen people bring this up. Ryan Zimmerman is having a great spring. He's 7 for 15 with three home runs. But Josh Bell, he's also doing pretty good himself. He's 12 for 32, four home runs. He has eight strikeouts to six walks.
Starting point is 00:20:24 So, okay, it's not terrible. Scott, it sounds like you are scoffing at this possibility. Oh, not terrible. Well, Bell's having an amazing spring too. The thought did occur to me when I saw Zimmerman's, when I saw him hit his third home run. I was like, man, how are they going to find playing time for this guy? But, you know, he was on the verge of retirement.
Starting point is 00:20:48 He's 36 years old. He hasn't been good since 2017. I just think, I just don't think it's anything to worry about. There's been a lot of enthusiasm for Josh Bell coming out of, out of Nationals camp. Will he steal a start occasionally? Probably. Like, no, no, hardly anybody plays 162 games. but I don't think it's like I'm more
Starting point is 00:21:11 honestly I'm more concerned I feel like we haven't talked about this enough I'm more concerned Pete Alonzo loses starts with some regularity to Dominic Smith than that Josh Bell loses starts to Ryan Zimmerman yeah I mean I would look at it the other way I would be more worried about Zimmerman
Starting point is 00:21:27 affecting Josh Bell than than Dominic Smith affecting Pete Alonzo I just think Pete Alonzo is Pete Alonzo is a lot better than Josh Bell yeah I agree with that wait what Yeah, Pete Alonzo is a lot A lot better than Josh Bell is a controversial statement
Starting point is 00:21:44 Yeah, I didn't think so either Chris He wasn't two years ago Well, yeah he was If we think Josh Bell's gonna bounce back to two years ago Scott, Pete Alonzo hit like 53 home runs two years ago I know Bell had a 968 OPS I don't know if Alonzo's OPS was higher than that
Starting point is 00:22:05 Maybe not but I think Pete Alonzo is better than Judge Bell. But first of all, regardless of that, to put that aside, it's really more about Dominic Smith versus Ryan Zimmerman, who needs to find it bats more? Who does his team feel like needs at bats more? And I feel like the Mets are going to want to find at bats for Dominic Smith more than the nationals are for Ryan Zimmerman,
Starting point is 00:22:27 and one of those routes to bats for Dominic Smith is first base. I'm not saying they're going to platoon over there or anything. Alonzo is only going to start against lefties, but could he lose a start a week to Dominic Smith at first base? I think that's a possibility. Maybe. Yeah, I just, like, Josh Bell hasn't been good against lefties in his career.
Starting point is 00:22:46 Yeah, that's been an ongoing issue for him. That was still an issue, you know, even in 2019. And Pete Alonzo was better than Josh Bell in 2019 for the record, 143 WRC plus to 135. But I just think the Mets are a lot more committed to Pete Alonzo than the nationals are to Josh Bell. The Nationals could just cut Josh Bell at the end of the season, not really miss him. Yep.
Starting point is 00:23:10 Pete Lonzo is a significant part of the Mets core plans. I would agree with that statement. And Dominic Smith, he can play the outfield. I'm not saying he's going to play it well, but he can play in the outfield. Ryan Zimmerman is not playing the outfield. That's just, that's not happening. Obviously not. I just think Ryan Zimmerman's at a stage of his career where it's not necessary for him to get at bats.
Starting point is 00:23:32 He's just there for an emergency benchback kind of guy. Sure. I mean, that very easily could be the case, but this isn't the first time I've seen someone bring this up, so I thought it was a fair email and something to talk about regarding Josh Bell. I'm pretty excited about him. I drafted him in my main event draft this past weekend as my starting first baseman. So fingers crossed. Hope Josh Bell does not lose any playing time. Let's update the people, the good people, on our sleepers, breakouts, and bust 3.0. And we'll go back and forth here. We'll start off with one of, let's start off with one of Chris's sleepers, and then we'll jump over to. in one of Scots as well. Chris, you recently added Josh Rojas to your sleepers of the Arizona Diamondbacks who's just having a great spring. He's 18 for 53. Three home runs so far. He's scorching the ball. Stackass hero right now. Strikeouts a little bit higher than I would like to be. He has 15 strikeouts and 53 at Bats. But back in 2019 and the minors, he had a great season. 23 home runs, 33 steals. So talk to me about Josh Rojas. Yeah, it's a power speed play. And, you know, like you said, what was it, 24 homers, 33 steals is what you said?
Starting point is 00:24:42 Did I just repeat exactly what you said, but slower? 2333. 2333 and also 33 doubles. Yeah, it's just, you know, like in the minors, he's been a really good contact hitter. You know, right around 15% strikeout rate, been a good walk guy. Over 12%. That's something he's done in the majors so far. And so, you know, hitting the ball with authority in spring training, like you said.
Starting point is 00:25:03 and it seems like there's an opportunity for him to play pretty regularly with the Diamondbacks, if not every day. I think with Cattal Marte likely playing center field full time, there's a chance that Josh Rojas is just the every day second basement. I think early on he'll probably split some time with his dribble Cabrera, but if Josh Rojas is playing every day, I think there's a chance that he can give you 15 homers and 20 steals without you know,
Starting point is 00:25:33 it's kind of a Trent Grisham Light profile with the walk rate. I love when you make these comparisons. Why? What's wrong with that?
Starting point is 00:25:42 Every player could just be Austin Meadows. Every player could just be Trent Grisham. It's, you know, this is one of the ways in which we,
Starting point is 00:25:50 you know, we explain and understand our world is by making comparisons to things that we're... Yeah. I'm down with that. You're making a comp.
Starting point is 00:26:01 Scott, you recently moved Josh Rojas up to your 30th ranked second baseman. I moved them up to 36, but I guess I need to get them even higher because I do like him quite a bit. This is more of a deeper sleeper
Starting point is 00:26:11 for someone who's playing in a deeper roto league or head said categories league. The ADP for Rojas is 535.3. He has been on the climb with this good spring, but yeah, he's basically... I just know every 15 team draft I do. Somebody gets to Rojas before I do, and I'm not happy about it.
Starting point is 00:26:31 I'm actually writing my deeper sleepers column tonight, 30 deep sleepers, and Ross is among them. But he's not in the sleepers proper, like he is for Chris. So I guess that makes him more Chris's guy than mine. I drafted him this weekend in round 24 of that 15 team league. So hoping he turns into something.
Starting point is 00:26:52 And if not, if he stinks early on, well, just cut him. No big deal there. Scott, a new addition to your sleepers, Corey Kluba, who, so far this spring. Velocity is down a little bit, but he's been pretty effective thus far. Sixth inning's
Starting point is 00:27:06 pitch, two earned five strikeouts. And something you said last time we talked about Kluber, I think it was maybe one of the pitching previews. You said he's either going to be Kluber of old and he's just going to be fine or he's going to get hurt and there's probably no in between. How are you feeling about that now?
Starting point is 00:27:23 I mean, that's basically still how I feel. I don't think his profile is one that's so reliant on velocity. He gets a lot of movement on his pitches. He's really good at commanding the zone. You know, you'd rather his velocity be exactly where it was, but I don't think
Starting point is 00:27:40 I'm not that alarmed that it's down what a mile per hour from when we last saw him healthy, which was 2018 when he won 20 games and had his fourth top five Sy Young finish in five years, including
Starting point is 00:27:56 two wins. That's just the thing I think I know it's been a long time. I know it's been a long time since we've seen Kluber Healthy. I know we were making some of these same arguments last year and he lasted one inning. But he looks fine.
Starting point is 00:28:14 He looks fine for the Yankees and considering he was an unquestioned ace, like on the level we value, I don't know, you Darvish or Aranola or something like that right now, when we last saw him with a significant sample to judge him on. I have a pretty easy time drafting him
Starting point is 00:28:37 where he normally goes. ADP around 150. And climbing. Cori Kluber has been one of the biggest risers so far in spring training. I think people just wanted to see him healthy and so far to this point, he has looked healthy. So the ADP on Fantasy Pros for Kluber is 150.2 and he's currently up at SP40 overall in Scott's ranks just ahead of Frankie Monument. Montas, Julio Arias, and Mike Soroka.
Starting point is 00:29:02 Chris, would you be willing to invest in Cluber ahead of those names? Montas, Arias, Soroka. I think that's right around the right spot. Let me see where I have him exactly. I do need to move him up. I moved him up in my head to head ranks, but I hadn't gotten to Rodo yet. Yeah, I think right around Frankie Montas makes sense.
Starting point is 00:29:24 I have Montas 51st overall. I could move Cluber to 50th. Sure. All right. So why's that 10 spots different? That's interesting. What's that? You have Montas 40th?
Starting point is 00:29:36 Yeah. No, I have Glover 40, Montas 41. You're talking 50 and 51. That's interesting. Yeah, I don't know. I have, yeah, we could, there's, you have Carlos Carrasca maybe a little lower. I don't know. Maybe.
Starting point is 00:29:50 Yeah, I have Carasco behind those guys. There's a hand. I can, like, I definitely have Aaron Savale, Jose, or Keedy. I would guess I still have Fran Bervaldez ahead of them. Okay. You probably don't have Marco Gonzalez or Hermann Marquez. No. It sounds like I am shooting for the ace profile
Starting point is 00:30:09 rather than settling for somebody who I really don't think has that kind of upside. I guess you could say that if you want to be a jerk about it. It's not jerky. It's just a difference in approach. You're playing it a little safer in that range than I am. Yeah. You know what they say about Chris?
Starting point is 00:30:26 He loves to play it safe when it comes to his fantasy baseball teams. Chris, we found your American League team this season. I think it's the Seattle Mariners because you sent me a list of all these new sleepers, and it was basically the Mariners starting lineup and their starting rotation. So you added Taylor Tremel, Mitch Hanager, you say Kukuchi and Justin Dunn.
Starting point is 00:30:48 I honestly had not even thought about that. We talk about Kukuchi quite a bit. We've talked about Hanigur a little bit and Trammel. So why don't you use this time to talk about Justin Dunn? So Justin Dunn was a process. I don't think he has any prospect eligibility left, but he did make 45, he did throw 45 innings last season. He was, you know, not great.
Starting point is 00:31:13 The walks were way too high. Strikeouts weren't great. But his minor league production profile is pretty good. And the biggest thing for me this spring is, I think his velocity has been up like two miles per hour. So far in the spring. This is a team that's likely to go. with a six-man rotation,
Starting point is 00:31:31 and so there is an opportunity. I think he's competing with Nick Margavicious for one of those spots. And I just think, you know, a guy that young whose stuff has looked better this spring, I'll take a bet on him. You know, that he figured something out that he was able to,
Starting point is 00:31:48 that he's able to reach back and throw a little harder and get more whiffs. Problem is the walk rates are still high in spring, and that's been a continuous issue for him at the major league level. You know, for me, it's more, he's not really on anyone's radar. And it's an opportunity for me to move him up and, you know, take a late round risk on him. I like Kukuchi more.
Starting point is 00:32:11 But I think there's a lot to like about Justin Dunn. Let's just quickly talk about Mitch Hanigur as well, who I am with you on. I'm pretty excited about him. And he was awesome a couple of years ago. And he dealt with a bunch of injuries. I think it was back in at this point it would have been 20 the last two seasons.
Starting point is 00:32:32 2019, I think he fouled a ball off of his groin region which you know, that's tough in its own right. And then he had a, because of that, he had a sport hernia which led to a core injury which led to a back injury. And I think he's had two different surgeries since then. But when Mitch Hanneger was healthy, he was awesome.
Starting point is 00:32:49 And he looks healthy this spring. And he looks awesome again. So his ADP is 248 as the 74th outfielder off the board. I think I moved him up inside my top 60 outfielders. He might even be inside my top 50. So talk about him, Chris.
Starting point is 00:33:02 The biggest thing, I mean, I think you covered most of it. He was, you know, a really solid fantasy outfielder for a long, well, not for a long time, for two years, basically, before the injuries. But, you know, I don't think there was anything about those two seasons that was unsustainable. He was someone going into 2019. I'm pretty sure we were drafting as a top 15 outfielder from what I remember. It's possible that as a third.
Starting point is 00:33:27 30 year old now. He's lost something amid all the injuries. You know, core injuries can be really tricky, but the last time we saw him was 2019. He had 15 homers and 63 games. He had a 220 batting average to the overall line. Line wasn't great, but the power was there. He was still walking a decent amount. I think Mitch Hanigar can be a guy who hits 280 with 25 homers, and a big thing is he's likely to bat lead off for the Mariners at this point. I think he's more likely than not to be their lead-off hitter on opening day. And so that just means more opportunities for played appearances, more opportunities for runs. And, you know, it'll give you a little boost in your counting stats as well. Mitch Hanigur back in 2018, which was really his breakout season
Starting point is 00:34:11 when he had 285, 26 home runs, eight steals. He finishes a top 10 outfielder in both head-toe and roto. No one's saying he's going to get back to that point, but based on his ADP, going outside the top 270 picks. I think McChadiger is someone that should be on our radars. He's my 56th ranked outfielder, so I moved him up just today. Scott talked to me about,
Starting point is 00:34:33 hmm, Will Smith we talked about recently. It's basically if you just believe he's going to be the guy. The pitcher. Yeah, Will Smith, the closer, or, you know, presumed closer for the Atlanta Braves. If you believe he's going to be the guy,
Starting point is 00:34:44 then he should be really good. He had 34 saves back in 2019. He was a top five reliever in both formats and heads-to-ed points and Roto. So it's just the belief there in the player. How about Jorge Polanco? You added him to your new sleepers list,
Starting point is 00:34:59 and I just wanted to ask you, what you thought about is 2019. Was that a fluke type season because that was the juice ball and he was a top 60 Roto player and he was the sixth best shortstop in points leagues? But outside of that season, we really have not seen that type of production
Starting point is 00:35:15 from Jorge Polanco ever. Well, I don't know that he's going to hit 22 home runs again. It's possible. But it's probably the high end of what he's going to deliver. I would bank on more between 15 and 20. But really what it's about for Polanco is just like, we considered him a must-start shortstop at this time a year ago.
Starting point is 00:35:38 And not a lot in the underlying profile changed. He obviously disappointed he hit 258 with an OPS around 650. But the strikeout rate was still 15.5. The line drive rate was still elite. Like between those two, like that should yield a high batting average. He should be with a line drive rate that good, a strikeout rate that good. That's a 300 hitter, 290 at worst. And in the short season, it didn't happen.
Starting point is 00:36:10 Now, he was also coming off ankle surgery. He didn't reveal this until spring training that he was still feeling. The ankle still wasn't feeling, right? So he had another ankle surgery this offseason and feels good. but it's, Polanco's just somebody like nobody seems to want. So even in 15 team leagues, I'm drafting them very late,
Starting point is 00:36:28 sometimes for my bench even, and he's going to be picking up second base eligibility. I think part of the issue is that a lot of people just don't believe he's actually the starting second baseman. I don't know why. I think maybe Luis Araya's got some, got some hype last year and people aren't willing to let it go. But like the story,
Starting point is 00:36:48 there really, there wasn't a question. after they signed Simmons to be their shortstop, oh, we're moving Polanco to second base now. Like Rocco Bell Deli had a conversation with him, says this, you know,
Starting point is 00:36:59 Polanco said, I'm going to be the best second baseman I can be, was how that conversation went. And, like, Arise isn't good at second base. They're kind of wanting him to take over the Marwin Gonzalez's super utility role. So I don't, I think it's just people want to believe in Arise. So that means that Polanco can't be the guy,
Starting point is 00:37:20 a rise is, but a rise isn't going to be. So whatever. I'll take Belonka. Chris, you have added Freddie Peralta to the mix for your sleepers. You've got some real deep sleepers here. I like this. I've seen some hype recently on Freddie Peralta, so I was going to ask you what that's all about
Starting point is 00:37:36 so far in the spring, 8 and a 3rd, one earned 15 strikeouts to just three walks for Freddie Peralta. So why are you getting excited about him, Chris? Yeah, so when I did my sleepers this time, I basically focused on guys with an ADP outside of the top 250.
Starting point is 00:37:51 I might have one guy who's like 245, but for the most part, yeah, I am looking deeper for this. And in Peralta's case, we're talking about a guy who's thrown 192 innings in the majors with a 372-fip, 1205K per 9.
Starting point is 00:38:05 There are limitations to his game. You know, he has been primarily a fastball pitcher, 76% overall in his career. It's a high spin rate fastball that comes at hitters from a weird angle, and it tends to get on top of them. but he's been kind of working on the secondaries.
Starting point is 00:38:23 Last season it was a slider, 24% was a little harder. I just think he's a really talented pitcher. He's only 24 years old, which was frankly shocking when I was reminded of that. I assumed he was like 26 or 27, so I think that's a good sign
Starting point is 00:38:39 for his chances of figuring it out. And it sounds like he's got a pretty decent chance to win that fifth starter job for the Brewers. And there was a quote that I saw from Craig counsel, I think after yesterday's start, where he said basically like, by the end of April, I can assure you both Freddie Peralta and Josh Lindblum will be throwing, we'll be starting games for us. So, you know, I don't think there's one winner. And even if he's not in the bullpen, or even if he's not in the starting rotation, you know, if he's throwing 85 to 90 innings like he
Starting point is 00:39:12 was in 2019 and he can get his ratios down and be an elite strikeout guy, that's a profile that I think has a lot of value this season. I've talked about it with Alex Reyes, and then there's a handful of other guys that I think it's true about. And Freddie Peralta, whether he's in the rotation or pitching and relief,
Starting point is 00:39:28 can be one of those guys. So I just think there's a lot to get excited about in his profile. I feel like it's kind of a discount Tony Gonsolin. Freddie Peralta is going to probably make 12 to 15 starts, a multi-inning reliever when he's not starting.
Starting point is 00:39:43 Yeah. And the ratios could be really good. I draft Tony Gonson a lot. Yeah. So, yeah, I like both of those guys. Yep. It's a profile that I like this year. Yeah, take a shot on the skills. Freddie Peralta. The ADP is 320.2. And I was just looking at the Brewers bullpen. This thing is stacked, man. It is so good. If Freddie Peralta winds up there, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, Brent Souter, who's been really good as well. And then Freddie Peralta. So something that the Brewers have done the past couple of years, we know Woodruff's going to go deep into his starts.
Starting point is 00:40:17 hopefully Corbyn Burns goes deep into his starts but outside of that I mean Hauser Anderson there's been some height for Josh Lindblum but Hauser's velocities up in spring yeah but you know if these guys they might just let them they just might let these guys go five innings and then it's just a hook right because when you have a bullpen like that it's why not right turn it over to some of these really talented relievers
Starting point is 00:40:39 as well a bonus sleeper this one's for me Brady Singer haven't we haven't talked about them all that much here throughout the spring but he was very good down the stretch last year, a top pitching prospect for the Kansas City Royals, and last four starts for Singer, 1.5-0-E-R-A, 3.68 X-FIP. Basically just used two pitches during that time
Starting point is 00:41:00 as fastball and his slider, but they are talking up his change-up in the spring, and he's trying to throw it more. He does have a few more strikeouts here in the spring. 15 strikeouts in 12 innings pitch again. That is Brady Singer, who has an ADP of 2.6. 65.4.
Starting point is 00:41:18 He fits that mold of, usually I like to get four of my top 30 pitchers, maybe sprinkle in another one in the top 40 range, and then just load up on a bunch of upside guys after picks 200. Brady Singer is one of those pitchers for me. If you're watching on the video side, don't go anywhere. If you are listening to the podcast,
Starting point is 00:41:37 we're going to take a quick break. But when we return, we've got breakouts 3.0 here on Fantasy Baseball today. So let's start things off with, Chris, you've talked about Brandon Woodrow, a few times and he's already kind of broken out, broken out unless you can think he can get to even another level. Is that kind of what you're thinking for Brandon Woodruff?
Starting point is 00:41:56 It's more about just, yeah, I think he did kind of break out a little bit last season, the 305 ERA. I think given the increase in spin rate on his fastball, I think that did represent a new level that Woodruff reached. But it's mostly for me just about him. You know, I'm predicting that this is going to be season where he puts it all together, stays healthy, pitches deep into games, and is like a,
Starting point is 00:42:24 you know, top five to 10 starting pitcher in fantasy. I'm with you. In 2021. It's, you know, all about staying healthy. He man, he did it last season. He didn't do it in 2019, but before the injury in 2019, which I was an oblique strain in 2019. I think that's what it was. you know, he was pitching consistently deep into games. His first 19 starts, he was on pace for over 200 innings. And so I think he can be that, you know, pitch deep into games kind of ace. I don't know if they're going to let him throw 190 innings this season. I would guess it's probably more like 175, 180.
Starting point is 00:43:06 But, you know, he could still get to 200 strikeouts there. And he could have a 3-1 ERA and be a legitimate. Ace. Again, that is Brandon Woodruff, who has an ADP of 38.4 on fantasy pros, and Chris has him at SP11 in his ranks. I have him at SP10, and Scott has him at SP 14. Sandy Alcantara, we've all talked about him quite a bit recently. Scott, you've moved him all the way up to SP 32 in your ranking. Another good start today. Yeah, he had another solid start, and that came against the Cardinals. The one thing he allowed, very long home run to my guy, Dylan Carlson. I was watching that game and that was an absolute rocket. But so far in the spring, 24 strikeouts
Starting point is 00:43:49 over 17 and a third for Sandy Alcansara. The nine walks. Don't love that, but I do like that he's getting more whiffs, more swings and misses there with Sandy Alcansara. Terrick Scouble. Scott, why don't you talk to me about Terrick Scuba? Because he's going very late as well. and I think that he has earned a spot in the Tigers rotation, but why is he in your breakouts, call? Well, Frank, I think he's going to break out. And the reason why I think he's going to break out is because it's got a new pitch, new pitch.
Starting point is 00:44:23 You know, he really relied on the fastball when he reached the majors last year because it's an amazing fastball, and it's basically all he needed to dominate the minors. So his secondary pitches were kind of underdeveloped. started mixing in a change-up more over his last few starts and got better results overall doing that. But it wasn't a great change-up. So he spent some time with driveline baseball this off-season,
Starting point is 00:44:50 and they helped him determine that the way he really needed to go was more of a splitter, like a split change. And that would get the movement that would complement his arsenal the best, and it's been earning rave reviews. It sounds like he's gaining confidence in his breaking ball. spring too. He had, I think this is right. I think he had a sequence against Bryce Harper this spring where he didn't throw a single fastball, just kind of, you know, challenging himself. And I think he ended up striking out Harper. So, you know, he seems to really be making strides with the whole
Starting point is 00:45:24 rest of his arsenal. And if he ended up with a swinging strike rate on par with Trevor Bauer last year and a K-per-9, I think it was around 11, with basically just the fastball without any of that secondary stuff, then, like, could take off like a rocket ship this year. If the rest of the arsenal is, even one of those pitches is something. It could be a big deal for Terrick Scouble. I saw the other, in his previous start,
Starting point is 00:45:52 he also threw eight cutters. And last year, he only threw seven total in however many starts he made. But it was more than one. So it was interesting to see that he's throwing that cutter a little bit more as well. You always got to pay attention. Whenever these guys work with drive-line baseball,
Starting point is 00:46:05 in the off season. Not that it's like a sure fire, okay, this player is going to break out or get back on track, but good things have happened for other pitchers that have worked with driveline baseball in the past as well. Chris, Victor Robles is in addition
Starting point is 00:46:18 to your breakouts, and I know Scott doesn't necessarily feel the same way, so tell us why you're excited about Victor Robles. Yeah, it's all about finding more consistency for him. You know, he's still only 24 years old. Actually, he's not 24 years old. on May 19th.
Starting point is 00:46:37 So he's still super young, even though it feels like he's been around and been disappointing for quite some time. He's really only had one full season plus last season. And it seems like the Nationals at this point are committed to giving him a chance to hit leadoff and he's been hitting well so far in the spring. You know, still too many strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:46:58 You'd like to see the contact rate in Crete improved. But three home runs, four stolen bases, and the steals are obviously. the real calling card here. He has played 52 games as a start, as a lead off hitter or batting second in the lineup. It's 48 starts. His per 150 game pace, he has 14 stolen bases.
Starting point is 00:47:20 So his per 152 game pace is 44 steals from those spots. And I just think if he's batting leadoff, they're going to let him run. And if he can just keep his head above water, there is a chance that he's a 35, 40 stolen base guy. He's really an elite speed guy. In the minor, he stole a bunch of bases. And there's more to the bat than I think he's gotten credit for.
Starting point is 00:47:42 You look at the average exit velocity, and he looks really bad. 82.2 miles per hour last season is really, really bad. He had a max exevalo of 109.2 miles per hour. Freddie Freeman actually had one at one of his max egg of Vila last year was 109.3. Obviously, Freddie Freeman. A lot more consistent. But the tools are there for Robus to be, a, dare I say, a Byron Buckson-esque player.
Starting point is 00:48:08 Isn't Byron Bucksstone still trying to be Biron Bucston? And you know how much I love some Byron Bucston. No, I think he can be someone who hits in a best case scenario, 20 homers and 35 stolen bases. And if he does that and bats lead off most of the season for the Nationals, he's going to be a top 50 player. I think if he plays, if Victor Robles stays healthy and spends the whole season batting leadoff or around there, 75% of his play difference. He's probably going to be a top 50 player.
Starting point is 00:48:36 Yep. That means he was good enough to keep hitting leadoff. He's going to score a bunch of runs. He's going to steal a bunch of bases. There's a lot of potential there. Yep, that's the if. But if he does do that, if he remains in the leadoff spot for the nationals,
Starting point is 00:48:50 it's easy profit at that point. And Maria Torres actually, for the athletic, she covers a national. She wrote an article, a great feature, actually, about Victor Robles recently. I really like that one, yeah. Yep.
Starting point is 00:49:00 And he was talking about how he put on a ton of muscle last year because he wanted to become more of a home run hitter. He said he, quote, started forgetting some basic elements of his approach. He's trying to go back to making more contact and letting his speed, you know, and I think that the anecdote was like he kept,
Starting point is 00:49:18 he was like, he would see Juan Soto out there and be like, I want to be like Wonsoto. And then I think one of the coaches was like, you're not Wonsota. Damn. Just shut him down. And that's not like, you know, it's not to be mean.
Starting point is 00:49:28 It's just like you're your own guy. You're a really good player potentially. Yeah. He was a better prospect than Juan Soto. I think every year that they were ranked as prospects. That's the thing is it does feel like Robles has been this giant disappointment, but one, he was actually really good in 2019 or 2019, right? He had 19 homers and 29.
Starting point is 00:49:51 Yeah, I mean, obviously better in a roto sense than a real life or other format sense. But it feels like people have really given up on him after. one partial bad season for a guy who is still 23. So I like him. Again, that was Victor Robles, who finished as a top 25 outfielder in Roto back in 2019 with 17 home runs, 28 steals, and he was the 79th overall player that season in that format.
Starting point is 00:50:21 Scott, who else you have here? You have Amir Garrett. We've talked about him quite a bit, if you want to remind people quickly why you think he's a breakout. Because I think he's really the closer, even though they're not admitting it yet. They brought him back in. He made his Cactus League debut the other day after a forearm issue struck out the side,
Starting point is 00:50:39 and they used him in the ninth inning, which doesn't necessarily mean anything in spring training, but it was just kind of, it was kind of hard not to read anything into it, knowing the position he's in, and David Bell was just raving about him after the game, and Garrett's been saying all along he feels like the role's his. And like you talk about the closer mentality.
Starting point is 00:51:01 Yeah. If any player in baseball has the closer mentality, like Amir Garrett, like, you got to want the ball. And Amir Garrett wants the ball in the ninth inning. He wants to fight entire teams. Yeah. No, he's, it's also like, Amir Garrette's one of those dudes that, like,
Starting point is 00:51:17 it's fun to put him on your breakout list just because rooting for him is so much fun. Yes. Uh, my plan basically going into every draft is, you mentioned Will Smith, the pitcher earlier on my sleepers list. Draft Will Smith is my, number one closer, draft, Amir Garrett is my number two closer.
Starting point is 00:51:35 They both might be top five this year. It's possible. And, you know, obviously you're not paying near that for either of them because people are skeptical they'll actually be the closer. Shohei Otani was a breakout on both of your lists. And we talk about Shohei Otani seemingly every day and rightfully so
Starting point is 00:51:51 because he has been awesome so far in the spring. He's 14 for 22 with four home runs. One of those was off of Shane Bieber, straightaway center field over the batter's eye. He also has a steel. He has four walks to three strikeouts. And on Sunday, he had five strikeouts over four innings pitched. One of those strikeouts came against Fernando Tatis.
Starting point is 00:52:10 I was on a podcast, man, I'm forgetting it. I think it's, I'll look up the name. I was on a podcast on Monday afternoon. And they asked, in a daily league, how early would you take Shohei Otani? And I said, inside of the top six rounds. Is that crazy? I couldn't do it
Starting point is 00:52:31 There are some really safe studs still available in that range But man, if he's hitting the same day he's pitching If they're not gonna, like It's possible you get 500 Played appearances and 25 starts out of him Well if he's hitting the same day he's pitching
Starting point is 00:52:47 Then that would actually be worse For those daily leagues But you still have to pick on the day of And I'm like I'm really like I was thinking about this today It was fun they did in spring training, and obviously it's encouraging for how many.
Starting point is 00:53:03 Like, I think how much they're talking about using him 500 plate appearances as a possibility. But, like, they couldn't actually let him hit the daisy pitches because they're forfeiting the DH for the entire game if they do that, right? I mean, you got to manage, like, a National League manager for, like, four innings a game. And Joe Madden. You're assuming he goes five innings, but that's putting a lot of pressure on him. Joe Madden was in the national league for a while too, so I mean, he knows how to do it. Yeah, but they tend to carry small benches in the A, like three guys.
Starting point is 00:53:38 Yeah, carry one extra guy. But here I am making arguments against Otani, and he's on my breakout's list. I got him like around 150 in a 15-team draft over the weekend. And so, like, he's still, he's not rising. His rise has not been astronomical for the amount hype he's getting. I think around 120 is where I'd start to think about
Starting point is 00:54:03 taking him because I'd like I really obviously the upside could be huge and I think particularly in a roto league where you're getting that home run steals combination in a points league knowing he's
Starting point is 00:54:21 probably not going to be in the lineup every day and you don't necessarily need the steals. You might end up playing him as a pitcher more often but still like it's just nice whenever you them knowing that you could fall back on the other anytime, you know? So around 120, I start to get excited about taking him because like it's looking like because they're talking about playing him more as a hitter. His value is going to be more than we ever really even thought it could be, given the
Starting point is 00:54:50 limitations on him in the past. Chris, you have Hazers-Lazardo as a breakout and you probably guess, but we're not going to get to bus today. So we'll put that on tomorrow's podcast. So stick around for that. I want to make sure that we give enough time to the bus category as well. Let's talk about some of those players that you should be avoiding. Chris, a lot of people were excited about.
Starting point is 00:55:09 He's just Lozardo last year. And he didn't live up to expectations, but you have him as a breakout still. Why is that? Expectations were too high last year. And he came out as a rookie with very limited pro exposure and had an ERA right around four and was pitching more consistent.
Starting point is 00:55:28 deep into games than I expected him to be, especially after his first handful of starts. I think he is enormously talented. And the, you know, his ADP is basically the same as it was last season. I think among starting pitchers, he's being drafted maybe a little bit earlier, but not by much. And he answered, I think, the biggest question I had, which was could he hold up to, you know, not necessarily, he didn't answer, can he hold up to a 200-inning workload? but could he hold up to consistently throwing 90 plus pitches? Every pitcher can get heard. He's more likely than most given his track record,
Starting point is 00:56:05 but I think the stuff is really good. He's talked about how, I think it was his change-up he didn't really have a feel for last season. He's been reworking that into his, Frank, is that right? We talked about that a couple weeks ago. Either the change-up or the curveball for Lizarro. One of them, he didn't really feel like he had the feel for it. I think it was the change-up.
Starting point is 00:56:23 He's been talking about it feeling a lot better this spring. he's one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball, and I'm willing to go out and get him as my number three or number four starting pitcher. Well, if it was the change-up that he was struggling with last year, Chris, it was still really good for him. He had a 19% swinging strike rate on two different pitches last year that included his change-up and his slider.
Starting point is 00:56:49 Oh, and on top of that, he throws 95-96 miles per hour with his fastball. So I'm also with you there. Like, he's grown on me as spring has gone. on and just remembering. It was the breaking ball that he didn't feel like he had last season. Yeah. I mentioned the stat before too, but basically he was forced into a start last year on August 14th because Frankie Montas got scratched with a back injury.
Starting point is 00:57:11 So Lazardo just found out he was starting that day. I think it was against the Giants. I used him on draft kings that day and he was terrible. But Hayes with Lazardo allowed six earned runs over three and a third in that start. And if you just look at his other 11 starts, he had a 3.42 ERA. So he was much better on normal rest when, you know, he didn't, he wasn't just forced right into action. So he's just Lozardo growing on me as well. He's inside my top 30 starting pitchers.
Starting point is 00:57:37 I have him at SP 28. Chris, you have him at SP 30 and Scott has him at SP 31. The last name that I wanted to give everyone, a little bit of a bonus breakout, is Nick Senzel. And we've talked about him quite a bit. Former first round pick, former top prospect with the Cincinnati Reds. Dealt with a lot of injuries the past couple of years. and last year he had a COVID situation. He has played 127 games in his major league career
Starting point is 00:58:02 and he's hit 14 home runs with 16 steals, a 245 batting average. That's not great. But if he can get that up to 260, stay healthy, it's definitely possible that he can go 20-20 in a great ballpark to hit in. Solid lineup around him as well. Again, that is Nixon Zell. And he's looked really good in the spring so far.
Starting point is 00:58:21 He's 11 for 32, two home runs, 4BI, a steal, and five walks to six strikeouts. So excited about one Nick Senzel. Anyone else here? Scott, you took Will Smith off of your breakouts list, so we talked. Yeah, we talked about him.
Starting point is 00:58:41 Will Smith movement, man. One's moving up and the other one's moving down. So makes sense there. I'll just wrap up with some team name Tuesday, man. We haven't done team name Tuesday in forever. Chris, I don't know if you have any team names. I texted you a little bit earlier. but I saw you were tweeting about a team name.
Starting point is 00:58:58 We got this one from Brandon. Actually, he's sending two. Wander Vision. Good, good. Not bad. But Tances with Wolves, a bit of a throwback. But a solid one. This was from Darren, greatest American hero.
Starting point is 00:59:13 Apparently it's a TV show. Okay, that's good. Solid. And I researched some, and by research, I just looked it up and stole some off a website. So not nearly as clever as Adam. Like, you know that at this point. so I'm not just going to be able to come up with them on the spot.
Starting point is 00:59:28 But Bichette's Creek. Very good. This is Lawee do it. It's solid. Say it ain't so, Toe. Yep, yep. Kiss from a Rosa Raina. Very good. Very good.
Starting point is 00:59:41 Only the good de Jong. Yep. Yep. Yep. Eddie. I've got a few to add. The one that I was talking about on Twitter, this is, I would guess neither of you will get this reference. Maybe some of the listeners were. but Merrifield Post Pavilion. Hit me up if you get that one.
Starting point is 01:00:01 Where all my animal collective heads out there. And then a couple devoted to my main girl, Taylor Swift and her two surprise 2020 album releases. One, Mark Folk Loretta and two Raphael's Deveremore. So there you go. Folklore and Evermore with the name of the two albums. Oh, bad. I love that you're just...
Starting point is 01:00:26 Never changed this. I can spend entirely... I just started working on a track-by-track baseball team, baseball pun listing for the folklore album. So I'll hopefully have that one ready to go on Twitter.com relatively soon. This is how I spend my time.
Starting point is 01:00:46 Scott, I know that you're a big fan of the team name Tuesday. Just kidding. Do you have any that you want to mention? Man. to me you can never go wrong with hot dogs and Hanigers. Relevant this year, we're all in on Mitch Hanigur. How about Rinkone and the Winter Showhay? Would that be a good one?
Starting point is 01:01:05 What do you, wait, what are you doing here? Falcon and the Winter Soldier. Okay. So say it again? Rinkone and the winter, what would be like a good soldier? Winter Shoah, yeah, you're, winter solar, Saler. Yeah, yeah. Rinkone and the Winter Solair. There you go. Boom. it on the board. Okay. You can put it on the board. All right, we're going to wrap there because we need
Starting point is 01:01:27 to end this. For Scott and Chris, I am Frank DeGel for listening and watching fantasy baseball. Today, we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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