Fantasy Baseball Today - Fantasy New Year's Resolutions & Prospect Risers/Fallers (12/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 29, 2022

Are we big New Year's resolution guys (1:45)? ... First up for Fantasy resolutions: get your guys (4:20). ... Similarly, trust in trusting yourself (6:10). ... Don't be so injury averse during spring training (10:26). ... Try not to fall for the value trap (14:05). ... How can we work film watching into our analysis (19:36)? ... The Welsh is looking to focus on outfield in 2023 (29:20). ... Draft starting pitchers on good teams (33:30). ... Can we make Shohei Ohtani one player that earns all of his stats (37:55)? ... News (43:42): Jean Segura to the Marlins. ... Which prospects are on the rise (50:00)? ... Which prospects are falling around the industry (56:15)? We wrap up with a little first-year player draft rankings (1:01:20). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. What's up and welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, December 29th. Frank Sample joined by Chris the Welsh. Last show of the year.

Literally. Today on the show, by the way, we'll be doing just that fantasy New Year's resolutions. We had a few signings. Got Gene Cigura to the Marlins, Corey Klouber to the Red Sox. And then we'll talk about a few prospects, risers, and fallers. For those who don't know, the Welsh also hosts a fantastic prospect podcast, which you should check out. It's called Prospect One.

And every six months or so, he does these mock drafts, where it's prospect-only drafts. And it's a good way to just feel out the value of prospects among industry folk and other listeners and stuff. So we're going to compare to the previous drafts that were done in, well, like August. That's not right, Welsh? August. Yeah, the most recent one was done in August. I think what I sent you had like all of the drafts, the last like five drafts. But yes, the last one was done in August to December. Yeah. So it's going to be cool to compare and contrast from those previous drafts to the ones that we just did here mid-December. And look, which

prospects are on the rise, which prospects are falling. And maybe try and figure out why, which ones we're looking to buy or sell based on that list. Hello, well, she, I feel like you haven't talked enough yet. What's going on? Are you big like New Year's resolution guide? Do you have all these things lined up? You're going to join the gym on January 1st, blah, blah, blah. What you know? I should, but I'm not going. Definitely definitely not going to join the gym. The last thing I would do would be join the gym. I would definitely go and work out and do that. Yeah, stay healthy. I had a very rough 2022. So my resolution is to have a positive 2,000. It was very, you know what, I look at it sometimes a wrong way.

There's a lot of positive things that happen, one of which is coming back and being here, doing shows with you. I'm very honored to be on the last show for fantasy baseball today of 2022. Those are positives, but it was a pretty rough one that I'm going to just try to get it all good vibes in 2023, along all the other stuff. Like, I'm going to eat better and I'm going to work out and I'm going to do all those things. but I'm not going to like burn any notes that are going to be attached to balloons that are going to send off or anything or go out by the way. I am full-fledged old person. I don't know about you. You are more of a young and you are a popular guy in a big city.

I'm not touching going out, but I feel like you might mingle around the city a little bit. I have been known to mingle around the city, but last year I had a just, it was too much. It went out to like a crate. New Year's Eve party in this big dance hall and everyone's dressed up wearing suits and fancy dresses like the whole shebang. And I was just like out all night and I felt terrible for like

the next two days and I'm not going to do that. So I think I'm going down the block to like an in-laws party or something and hopefully just you know play it close to the vest. Get home, relax and don't do anything too crazy. But yeah, I'm happy to hear. Yeah, positivity is a good one. I think like if more people around just everywhere we're more positive heading into 2023 that would probably be a good thing. The truth is you don't really need New Year's to have resolutions or want to make changes or anything. But for the sake of this show, January kind of starts the new page, right? The end of the regular season in fantasy football. I think the interest starts to build for fantasy baseball. So I think now is a good time to talk about some of these things that we have in our mind.

It's really going to be, I guess, like, lessons learned or things we want to do differently heading into draft season here as it approaches in February and March. So that's exactly what we're going to do. And we could jump right in. Welsh, I'm going to kick us off. We're going to just kind of spitball back and forth here. I've got a few. You've got a few.

And honestly, the first one for both of us is very similar. And I think we can take away a lot from this. Get your guys. Trust your own analysis. Something that happens throughout January, February, and March. and it's not necessarily a bad thing. There are a lot of different podcasts going on. There are a lot of different opinions

being thrown around on Twitter, in podcasts, on YouTube, wherever you consume content. And, you know, it can become confusing. You've got to kind of weed through it and see like, all right, who's making the best points, who do I agree with, so on and so forth. But I think for our sake, Welsh,

if we have conviction in a player or a mindset or some kind of statistic or anything that we found, that we should really just stick to it, no matter who else we listen to, no matter who pushes back on it. Because last year, I was going through my sleepers

and breakouts to articles. I had Tristan McKenzie written down, Shane McClainahan written down, Logan Gilbert, Jesus Lazzardo. Anyone who listens to this podcast knows I did like a whole monologue about how Sandy Alconstra

was criminally undervalued in the industry. And I just didn't wind up with enough of those guys. You know, I had a few of them here and there scattered throughout. But listen to those names. If I just built a pitching staff with those names, I would have won like all my leagues. So I think that's something that I've got to do a better job of is just kind of weeding through

everything else, trusting my own analysis and sticking with my guys. And I feel like maybe you're on the same page here. Yeah, mine I thought was maybe, I mean, you kind of brought it all together where I think exactly mine is. I was kind of taking what you had written down on our show sheet a tiny bit different in that you were also kind of pushing people like, hey, you know, when you're, you know, when you you go through analysis, just like believe yourself and like don't, don't be so beholden to everybody else.

Mine is just a variation, but it's closer to what you're saying. And I'm saying trust in trusting yourself because, and this is exactly what you just said. It's like, I'll go through. You do all this work. And then I think over time, especially for guys like you and I who've been doing this the entire time, by the time March comes around, this is like month five or six of all of our work. And there can be a little bit of a burnout.

out and maybe you start second guessing yourself and I don't know, you use all the sudden one piece of information can come out and then you start second guessing all of that and you just start going into these other areas. So the idea of exactly what you said, just trusting to trust yourself and your own stuff and following that is a great path to follow. And everybody else that's listening, you can do similar things like that. Like if you're going to do your own research, whatever it is, if you're listening to podcasts or you're getting guides or whatever it is, you know, curate all that information, something I've always done, and I've always said, like I do my prospect list, like you mentioned on my show, Prospect One, I do a prospect list, but I don't

need my list to be the only list that exists in the world. As a matter of fact, people that they have to sign up on a Patreon to check it out, which I appreciate the people that support. I would go and tell people to go check out others and find a couple, find your people that you like and get those tools in your tool belt. And the same thing would apply to all draft prep. find the people, the couple sources, get that draft prep, put those tools in your belt, and then trust in that and whatever analysis that you ultimately are the one that are going to make the click or you're going to select the player or whatever it is you're going to do to get that guy, that, you know, trust in what has got you here and all the work that you've done,

whether it is going off of other people yourself. And that's something that I think I failed on. And I think obviously clearly off of those names that you said you did in the past as well, is just following your own stuff and believing. and what you're doing, it's going to get you in a good spot. I love something that you said there, Welsh, about how we do this for so many months, right? By the time, you know, I guess the average listener, the people who are listening right now, I mean, these are like the diehards.

These are the people that care about fantasy baseball all year round. They want to hear about dynasty and prospect content. By the time we get to February and March, we're kind of just like regurgitating a lot of the things that we've been saying all offseason anyway. And I do think that maybe at that part, At that point, it's maybe a little bit like over analysis or like you said, there's something that comes out that maybe challenges and then you start to second guess everything.

Something else too, and this is only for a select few people who are drafting early right now, which again, like most people shouldn't be drafting right now. But this happened to me in the past where throughout December and January, I would get players at a discount that I really like. And then by the time it came to March, everyone has consumed the content, they like these players too. And I'm not just like, oh, patting myself on the back,

like, oh, I found this player first. That's not what I'm getting at. It's just that I know what they were going for two months ago. And now I'm upset that they're going like two rounds earlier. And thus, I don't want to draft said player. And that happens a lot too. That's such a good point too. Is early.

And I don't know how you would like give that a byline. It's like, you know, don't let early values dictate what happens in March and move you away because you're so freaking right, man. Because we'll go in. We've got a guy at 115. All of a sudden we've got to pay 85. And we're looking at each other and we're like, yeah, do this? Like, I like this guy, but do I like him at that cost now?

I have to pay so much more. And we have this context. And that context can really, really kill us. Yeah, look, a player we're going to talk about later on. And we've mentioned his name a ton already this off season is Matt Mervis. If we see Matt Mervis in spring training hitting bombs and he's confirmed to be on the opening day roster, there's legitimately a chance that this guy climbs inside of the top 150 picks in fantasy baseball.

And we're just... I would say 100. I would say 100, Frank. I think that's a possibility. And then we're just going to be thinking about, oh, well, you know, remember earlier back in December and January? We were getting this guy like post-250, post-300. Now he's going inside the top 150. That's a name that that can happen with.

So just keep that in mind. You know, that's, I guess, one of the advantages of drafting early if you're someone who wants to get in right now. Again, I wouldn't recommend it for everybody, but just something to keep in mind. But next one up for me is not to be so injury averse. And specifically in spring training.

And this has happened to me, I think more often than not, for some players it works out. More often than not, I get burned by being too injury averse. And last year in particular, you see guys like Luis Castillo and Zach Wheeler. You get reports of the shoulder stuff because we didn't have any updates, because of the holdout and all this stuff,

and then boom, we get all this news at once, and it turns out this guy has a shoulder injury, this guy has a shoulder injury, and then I was just completely off. Maybe for the right reasons, like shoulder starting pitcher, but look at what they went out and did. Like, when Zach Litter was on the mound, he was great.

Luis Castillo, maybe a bit of a rocky start, but as the season went on, he got better and better and better, maybe the best that we've ever seen from Luis Castillo, and just other names also in that same camp. Zach Gowan, shoulder stuff, he had the forearm last year, Carlos Rodan, not being given the qualifying offer by the White Sox.

I was scared to death by that. I'm like, there's no way I'm drafting this guy. They know something that we don't. Clayton Kirshaw just year in and year out, outperforms ADP. He's awesome when he's on the mound. I just won't draft him because he's old and injury prone. And these guys just throw it in my face every single year. So that's something I want to be a little bit better with as well, Welsh, is not being so

injury-averse, particularly around spring training time. Let me ask you, though, is that going to also? tie in to amazing talent that might be injury prone. And I'm specifically talking about Jacob DeGrom here. Jacob deGrom, when healthy is the best pitcher in baseball. And I really don't know if there's like that much of an argument around it. But the question is always about when he's healthy. There's other players you can throw in there. I wouldn't throw like, you know, Mondesian in there, but there's plenty of other players that have had some questionable injury. So Byron Buckson would be another one of those. Obviously, he's not stealing bases. I have a weird crutch for Byron

Buxton, but like, are you going to apply those little, you know, dinging injuries that pop up in spring training to players that maybe have nothing but are prone? I think it's a sliding scale, right? Someone like Jacob de Grom, and I've said this already. I think I was on the fan tracks, toolshed podcast with Clegg and Cross. Those guys do a great job. And they asked me about Jacob de Grom, and I said, look, second, third round, I'm just not in. I, I, I think, I I cannot take a guy that risky that early. But, you know, as we get into the middle rounds, and particularly a lot of these names that I'm talking about,

like Luis Castillo, he was falling. He was dropping like a rock last year. Outside of the top 10, top 12 rounds. Zach Gallen was left for dead. Carlson was like a mid-round pick. Clayton Kirchaw mid-round pick. Zach Wheeler a little bit different. You know, he still kind of wound up being a third or fourth-round pick,

so maybe it was a right to fade him and, you know, where he was going. So you're talking about injury sliding valve. of player because de Grom is not like he's already locked in but those guys like Castillo and them they were this is them and then their injury question tags came and they started to slide down so you're going to buy injury value or you're not going to be scared of injury value purchases. Yes, I think that's a great way to put it. And not particularly getting multiple of these guys, but hey, picking up one of them and see where it goes. I think you could do that. You don't want your whole pitching staff to go into the season injured. But I think maybe it's taking

advantage of some of those injury slides and spring training and stuff like that. Something I haven't done in the past and I think I want to try to do moving forward. Next up. All right. So I've got one and I'll try to explain this here is, and I'm calling it, don't fall too far into the value trap. So something and what's funny is this is actually coming off of the previous episode where we were talking about your guys just mock at the end if you guys listened to it here with Chris Towers. And Towers got into that situation where he took Zander Bogart's.

Remember, we were talking about that. He took him as utility. Didn't really have a position for him, a spot, but there was great value. He kind of started that run. And that's okay. And I think that can really work in your favor in a lot of spots. But that value-based draft, I'm always a value-based guy. I think you should pay attention.

You shouldn't base it all on ADP, which I think sometimes people get confused about. But I'm always looking for values, and I always want to be cognizant, even if I'm not crazy in on a player, but if you're starting to get value, we've talked about even with Mondesie, like it's something to pay attention to and look at. But what happens with heavy value-based drafting is you'll start to ignore what you need to do. Ah, man, I should get an outfielder, but man, look at this value on this shortstop, even though I got one. I got to get that. Yeah, well, I see this run is starting to happen with the closers, but I just can't pass up this third basement. I got to do that.

And all of a sudden, at the end of the draft, yeah, you've dominated a position or two, but the frustration can start to sit in where maybe you've missed out on the depth at two positions. then you play the what if game. You go back like we did in mock drafts, which is great, by the way, all season long, you should get in as many mock drafts as you possibly can. And then you can go back and play the like, had I done this game. And I think when you get too heavy into value-based drafting and paying attention too much, and you could also, I throw this to a lot of people that listening, just call it ADP based drafting. You know, following the ADPs and basing it purely on that, you really can get yourself caught because these guys look like incredible values and

miss out on full team construction because there are some holes this year. There really are some holes positionally where it's not like you're going to be screwed, but you can fall behind. You really can fall behind. We've talked about it at third base, at second base, outfield, these are all positions where you can kind of fall behind in it.

And I want to not fall too far into the value trap this year, which I can, I totally cannot help myself. Like towers, if I saw Zander Bogart's there and I'm looking and I'm like, well, I can get so and so, or I can get Zander Bogarts, even though I got the position set,

I got a jump on that. And that's something I think that always takes good work. And it's a good practice to start it early, not falling too far into that and really screwing up your rosters. And I think a lot of the times, if you go back and look at a draft after the season has played out, of course, I mean, look, it's so easy to say this now. But there's always going to be a few players that go after a Zander Bogart's,

let's say, at that point, where they could easily outperform him, right? Like, we almost overthink it because we see the name. main value and he's been around for so long and man I got a short stop but this is Xander Bogart's I gotta take him and it's like it's so easy in hindsight to look back and say well look at all the players that outperforms Xander Bogart so I don't think that we should like fall too much into that trap I will also say this though I think people need to be ready when a gift presents itself right and you know this is a fine line because it's almost gonna sound like I'm downplaying your point which I'm not

It's just, I think when a gift presents itself, you've got to be willing to pounce. It has to make sense within your roster construction. And if you're drafting a Roto or a head-ed category team, it has to fit your team category-wise as well. So keep all this things in mind. But like, don't overthink it. Like last year, I had a few drafts where pretty big money drafts where Justin Verlander just kept slipping, slipping. I'm like, well, these are really smart people. Like, what do they know that I don't?

And then I just didn't take him. And it turns out, you know, just don't think it. Like if a gift presents itself, don't be afraid to take it as well. Yeah, and I completely agree with you too. And that's why I threw in that point of talking about ADPs, because I think value-based drafting gets very, very construed. And I'm kind of talking to everybody, like in a consumer way here, that you construe value-based drafting with just paying attention to ADPs.

And like, wow, you know, CBS says this guy should go at 89 and I'm at pick 110. This is the best thing ever. and then you start to avoid, that's a little bit more where I'm going. And I will fall into that trap as well. We all kind of fall into that. And like you said, with the Verlander situation,

the later drafts go, it gets a little bit easier to fall into that. But like, listen, if you have a shortstop, if you took Trey turn on the first round, and all of a sudden, you're in round eight or something like that,

and Zana Bogart's is still sitting around, I got no problem taking him in the middle infield. It's just you really got to pay attention to what the rest of your roster is looking like and swoop up the Justin Verlanders. Don't be afraid, like you said it really great. Don't be afraid to take on that gift if it is presented to you, but also not every round is there a gift.

And you're going to open up a big old bag of coal at the end of the year while everyone else is playing for the playoffs if you screw up your roster. Right. I also say right now, it kind of feels things are going to change throughout January and February and March as more people are drafting, as a lot more smarter people are drafting as well, that some of these deals are going to go away. I'll just point out, like, the pitchers that are going as late as they are right now in these NFBC drafts, Scher and Verlander and Zach Wheeler all going in the fourth and the fifth round, that is not going to last.

Like, I think those guys are going to be pushed up. It's like the third round, so on and so forth. So keep that in mind. I mean, if you're drafting now, you might get a few gifts, but it might not remain that way. Next up for me is something that I do a lot in season. People who watch us every day, listen to us every day. They know that on any given night, I've got the quad box going. I've got four games that I'm watching. I got the Yankee game that I'm watching as well on my phone and try to consume as much baseball on a daily basis as I possibly can. But something that I want to do for draft season is I want to work highlights and watching video into my analysis more.

And I kind of got this in my head when talking to Ian Conn out at first pitch Arizona, who I consider, I think he's probably. the best fantasy baseball player in the world right now. And that's no slight to anybody else because there's a lot of really, really smart people out there. But it's just any league or format, dynasty redraft that I've competed against Ian Conn or have heard about him playing in,

he has eventually won. He finds a way to win. Something that he does a lot is he watches video. He watches the players play. He likes to analyze them. But he kind of watches from a different perspective. He looks at mentality and how they carry themselves, confidence and things like that.

But also, he was talking about Spencer Strider with me, and he's like, that guy has it. Like, when he was pitching a relief, and he said, oh, I went out and I picked him up everywhere, and he wound up, you know, doing great in the main event, and he, you know, finished pretty high in the overall and all this kind of stuff. And he's just like watching Spencer Shrider and seeing him pitch as a reliever, picked him up, and then just held on to him, and then eventually he became a starter. So things like that, I want to work in in the offseason. I keep drafting Drey Jamison.

I want to watch more Drey Jameson, see how he looks on the mound, you know, see how his pitches move and all this kind of stuff. It's probably easier for pitchers than it is for hitters, but that is something

that I want to do more of Welsh. I think it's a very fine line for fantasy baseball in particular. It's, we have all these analytics, and of course we try to use as much of them as possible. But I also think that there is an aspect

to watching baseball and watching the players that you obviously cannot pick up from the analytics. So I want to work that anymore. Hey, listen, man, I mean, you're preaching. to me that that's a big part of my prospect game that that is what i do and i would say that there is

more how do i say this there is more uh not watching baseball analysis than there's ever been in the history of of any of this now there's just more from a percentage standpoint but i'm just saying like you know what is the first thing that people do when someone does something do you think do they go to twitter to get the highlight or do they go to baseball savant to see like what the eve and stuff But like baseball savant is sometimes the very first place for anyone to go. And it's great. And it's a place in. But I would also say like what Ian has and what others would have that are doing this is it's like you have to also have the eye.

You have to know what you're looking for if you're going to get into that process. And you've got to have reference points to it. So I think that's a obviously it's a great piece that you could throw into it. But you definitely need to know what you're looking for. Because like the Spencer Strider one specifically, that's, I mean, that's, kudos to him. But you know, you're looking at a guy. that is in a reliever standpoint.

You're just being like, man, this guy's got really good stuff. Like, you're going out on the limb. And that's a great limb that he paid off. Now, if it's more of the like, hey, I watch a lot of this guy as a reliever, and they're going to give a shot as a starter and I'm buying into this, that's different. But there's going to be a lot of players out there as well that just have

amazing, incredible stuff that we're not sure. Aaron Ashby reminds me of one of those guys where it's like, not quite a starter. He's fringe. Where are we going to put him? He's got great stuff. We just need to see him get out there. That was Dustin May as well.

Actually, the best comp I can think of a player that I would buy in on really hard this year that has a Spencer Strider feel is Dustin May coming off of an injury, though, and he's kind of locked into a rotation spot. But the Dodgers could have people question. So, yeah, I'm totally with that much easier, I think, to do from a pitching perspective, but you can see it. You can find it on the hitting side, and you're just looking for trends. And it's something that I do with minor league baseball at the very lowest levels.

And, you know, sometimes you can't even quantify when you're talking to people about it. You're just like, listen, just like he said, this guy just got, has it. Like, you can see them out at it bats. You can't, sometimes you can't get the information. But you can just say, like, listen, this guy has it. This is superstar potential. Doesn't make mistakes. Maybe the EV is not getting up big.

But this guy has it. That's actually something I did with George Kirby, like two or three years ago, right off the pandemic where everyone was kind of cooled on him. And he came out and he was throwing 101 on the backfields. And he was going up against Justin Foskew and everybody. And it was like, listen. and he's just lighten it up, but regardless of maybe his command,

which people are going with, this guy has it. He looks absolutely electric. And now we're talking about, you know, George Kirby has a potential top 50 dynasty player overall. So it's a very good point that we're, you know,

kind of going deeper into, but where you can do it. I remember in spring training last year in particular, seeing Jesus Luzardo, he was just different. He was pitching with conviction. He was throwing his curveball more. I remember there was a start against the Astros,

full lineup where he was just mowing them down. He looked completely different than I've ever seen before. And that was something that I just won't forget. And that's why I started, you know, writing up Hazel's Lazzardo and drafting him where I'm like, no, he looks a little bit different. So that's definitely something. I like you mentioned about him too is he has one of those, you can't quantify things attached to him where he also will do the Johnny Quedo. It's something I've always loved about him and you're not going to see it's, there's nothing on paper unless you watch him or obviously you read up like a write up. But he's one of those guys that will quick pitch you or he will hold his stance.

He's got four to five different ways he can approach in at bat, which like Johnny Quato does, except the difference is, is he may, you know, he may hold up at the point of release for two seconds and then he's going to drop 99 on you where Johnny Quato was not doing that. So it's a little bit different. That was one of those things where you see in person, you're like, wow, you know, if this is all working out, which he had command before, he's going to be special. And then it started clicking this year and he's kind of special. You know, that's also a really good point.

last point on this, and then I'll let you give out your last one here. Nestor Cortez, going into last season, we just, we didn't know, all right, was that little small sample we saw with the Yankees, was that for real? And if you watch the pitch at the end of 2021, you would have saw that he was kind of doing like some herky jerky, different things, throwing sidearm, stalling a little bit, quick pitching, uh, throwing from different arm slots, all these kind of weird things. And you're like, well, if there's a way that you can outperform ex-fip and FIP and all these kind of things,

it could be by doing something wacky and different. And that's exactly what Nester Cortez was doing. And then obviously he went super late in drafts or undrafted in most drafts. And he turned out to be amazing, obviously, for fantasy purposes. You know what's funny about that?

Not to keep extending this, but you just, you got our, probably everyone's brain going. That's actually something that I kind of see in Zach Veen. I don't know if you got enough to see Zach Ving when you were out here with me hanging at the AFL.

But Zach Vane kind of has some of those like, there's just little corky things as far as a hitter goes. Like the patience at the plate, he definitely can just drive the ball to all fields. But when he gets on the base paths, he's long and lanky. He screws with the pitcher a little bit because he's got such a big stride. He gets a bigger lead than any other guy that I've seen in a long time,

runs like a gazelle. It's just these little weird. Like, there's been some people that have questioned like Will Zach Vien really run? And the way I see him on the base path, which you can't, there's nothing really to put on paper outside of obvious success. he just has that extra little thing to mess with pitchers.

And he's so tall and lanky that he just has that extra little advantage. It just kind of reminded me of the herky jerky that some of these pitchers can do. The hitters can sometimes do that, whether it's the way that they start to choke up on a bat or Gabriel Moreno has a really interesting batting stance where he also has the bat placed on his shoulder and just gets him like a quick release. There's just like little interesting things that are attached to these players. and Zach Mean was the guy that came to mind when you said that. Yeah, and I saw that clip you posted about Gabriel Moreno.

It almost seems like a timing mechanism for him or something like that. And obviously, there are different ways to succeed at the MLB level and a bunch of different batting stances and follow-throughs and all these different kind of things. I swear, last point, Joey Weimer is someone that I've heard this about as well, that he's just kind of a weird dude and the way that, like, he swings and the way he runs the bases and all these kind of crazy slides and stuff.

So perhaps that's something we'll see this year with the Milwaukee Brewers as well. Yeah. Yeah, I hated his, actually when I first, when he was in the NFL, he had this stance for anyone on watching video is he'd have the bat out. Like, it not only was his hand, where his hands out from his body, but it was like far out and his hands were almost like this. And I hated that. And it looks like he honed that in, actually, this season.

Because that was something where I was like, if you know, you have bat speed. It's working now. But when you get to the highest levels in the majors and guys are throwing 99, I don't know if you can have your bat out a completely different, like, imp proportional way to your body. and you could do it like that. You can't have it like it's a sword or something and you're going to go in an attack. But he kind of honed that in a little bit

and brought some of the craziness in and those are the things. Again, you're looking for that. That would have been a negative to him that he ended up fixing. I just thought of benchwormers. Don't chop at it.

It's not a sword. You're not a sword. Nick Schwartzon, by the way. Matt Olson too. Like me and my friends, we all make fun of Matt Olson the way he holds a bat out. It's so weird.

I don't like that. I hate that out thing. It works for. There's a lot of, There's a lot of compensation you have to have for it. And Weimer definitely has that, but he's fixed it a little bit. All right. Last one for you here, Welsh, fantasy baseball, New Year's Resolutions.

Yeah, so mine's not going to be like, is like, you know, metaphorical and just getting deep and about, you know, positionals. It's actually strictly about a position. And it's something that some of the early drafts I've done, I've already done best balls, I've done some mock drafts. And I talked about it in the last episode. And, you know, someone in the chat, interestingly, brought up third base. And third base has its holes.

I think second base has, I'm not as comfortable as Towers is with it, but I'm just going to reiterate this what we did in last episode. I do not want to let outfield slip away because that has been, I've noticed it's been a little bit of crutch of mine for a couple years.

When you get a little confident, you get a guy and you're like, I can fill out my pitchers, get this spot. Hey, you second base is kind of bad. You get this. Then all of a sudden, you're getting outfield two in like round nine. And then outfield three in round 13.

And you have a five outfield league. and all of a sudden your fifth outfielder is trash. And you have so many of these guys to fill out, the position is not as deep as it's been in the past. I'm not saying it's bad, but it feels like the tears fall off in different ways where you can, I feel like the outfield three you can get this year is exponentially worse than what it would have been two years ago.

And then four, if you don't do it right. So all I'm saying is a resolution for myself is I'm going to pay heavy attention to outfield. because what I've noticed in my personal trends of drafting is I'm really letting outfield get away from me. And I don't want to do that because I think that's hurting me a little bit. Now, if I'm in a three outfield league, I think it is a little bit different,

but majority of what I play is five outfield leagues. And I really, really want to pay attention. So as much as everybody, like in the chat, it's the third base, I even wrote up in the fantasy black book, Joe Pisa Pia's book, second base might be one of the worst. Even though we're going to hone in on that,

outfield is going to get away from people this year. And I just don't know if there's enough quality, quality, late, late to compensate for it. And I just don't want that to be a part of my teams this year. You know, it's a good point you bring up. And to me, looking at the early NFBC ADP, Outfielder 36 is Hunter Renfro. To me, I think that is probably the perfect last, like, that's where you want to cut it off. That is the cut off for me where I do not want a third outfielder below this level. In a five outfielder league, look, your four and you're five, they're probably going to be questionable regardless.

but I want to get my top three at least by then. Because you're talking about just above him, John Carlos Stanton, okay, is your third outfielder? That's probably fine. Taylor Ward, Santanderer, those are fine. You get into Castellanos, probably a fine outfielder three as well. Seia Suzuki going a little bit earlier

than I'd like him to be going right now, but I do like him quite a bit. And then we start to get into like Springer, Eloy, Marte, and I think those guys are fine as like Alphilier 2. So I think there's a very clear drop-off as you say, where, look,

once you get past the top 20 or top 22, I think, you know, all right, those guys are all fine as like your two. And then you really want

to get that third one before you get into, uh, stand in and Hunter Renfro because after that, then you get to like, Ian Hav who's fine, Harrison Bader, Mitch Hanager.

It's just like, those are outfield fours at best. Yeah, at best. But also it's not, it's not to like, be like, outfield's the worst necessarily.

But what it also is, is it's the structure of just, I think, how all of us draft. And closers are going as early as they did last year, if not even worse. You know, I mean,

if you don't have big, um, if you don't have big lockdown closers, you know who it is. People want to swoop up the guys at least in NFBC drafts. Closers are going early. Starting pitching. See, this is the other unique thing.

I did starting pitching is not going to go as early as it usually does. But then there's going to be this huge battle for all that middle pitching and rounds like four through eight. Yep. And then in that time period, What have you filled out? Maybe you filled out your first basement in a shortstop or first basement in third. Then you got one closer and then you got three or four pitchers.

What goes on with outfield? So really, this is just for me and maybe anybody else that wants to know, just keep it in your mind. Make it a little tab market to pay attention to the market of the outfielders. Because Hunter Renfrope, perfect outfielder three, boy, would that look good as an outfielder four? A lot better than Harrison Bader looking as your outfielder three. All right. I have a few other bonus resolutions here. I just wanted to quickly mention draft pitchers on good teams. Rob Silver met about in first pitch Arizona. Awesome dude. Love meeting him. He did an excellent, excellent presentation at F-Paz, and it was very simple. The most wins come from starters on good teams. The bad teams barely get any starting pitcher wins. And that's for multiple reasons. That all makes sense. Starting pitchers on bad teams, they're bad teams for a reason. They're not good pitchers. They don't go, deep into their starts. Half the time,

they don't even qualify for a win. They don't go five innings. Bad teams also have bad bullpins. So even when a starting pitcher leaves with a win, they half the time, they don't wind up keeping that win because the bullpen blows it.

Bad teams are bad because they have bad offenses. They don't get run support, even if they have good pitching, i.e. the Miami Marlins. Now, Sandy Alcantra, a little bit different because he's going seven, eight, nine innings every start. But other guys, you know,

even if Trevor Rogers pitch as well, or Hazis Lizardo, you know, it's probably, wins are going to be hard to come by because they just don't score enough runs. Look at the late round breakouts from this year. Kyle Wright, Braves,

Tony Gonsland, Dodgers, Nestor Cortez, Yankees, Christian Javier, Astros, Tyler Anderson, Dodgers, Spencer Strider, Braves. Notice a theme? They're all on great teams. So I just think it's something,

don't overthink it later on in your drafts. Just take shots on flyers, on good teams. There was a little bit of water on my Nicodolo. I'm just curious because I don't want I'm going to extend this or anything, but like, I'm just curious of the top 50 pitchers. Unfortunately, you know, NFPC doesn't let us get out the relief pitchers. So if you want to go to like 50 or 60 or something like that to get 50 pitchers in,

I'm just curious in your mind, who would qualify on the downside of that, where you say draft the pitchers on the good teams. Like, I think Gallin is someone that jumps out that's not going to be on a good team. I mean, the top end has mostly good guys, though I would say. the Diamondbacks could be sneaky this year though. Corbin Burns. Corbyn in Milwaukee is okay. They're fine. They're a potential playoff run team, but they're not, like, if

you're really talking about like draft pitchers on good teams, Burns, Dylan Sees, Gallin, and then like, I can't really find the other player in the top 50 that like, who, else do you think qualifies or kind of fits

into the negative of what you're saying? I think it comes down to how good do you think the Rangers are going to be this year because obviously Jacob de Crom, that's a huge one. I mean, they made all these signings. I don't know if they're necessarily going to be a good team. They were an awful team last year scrolling through. Like I say, Hazers Lizardo, Nicodolo, or probably the two biggest breakout guys that you and I have talked about that aren't really on great teams but have great stuff. They probably scream of this. And not that you don't want to have them, but paying up in price is maybe a little bit more dice. You just given some people some

quantifiable names. Joe Ryan, by the way, has an 80, be higher than Jesus Lazzardo. Decent team, but again, maybe it doesn't really fit the mold of what we're talking about. Logan Webb Giants. How good are the Giants? Kind of a tough division. I know we're going to a balanced schedule, so hopefully that can help things for him. But that was a name that stood out there as well.

And then, yeah, the Marlins guys. Yeah, Pablo Lopez kind of falls into there. Here's another one. I think a lot of people are going to talk up at some point. They're just going to do it because his name value of before, but Chris Sale, Boston's not a good team. They're just not putting out a very competitive roster. So that's one of those guys are, you know, you're going to be like,

Hey, man, this is going to look like a really sneaky pick? But, but is it? Is it really going to look? Like, do you want, I mean, right here, the hilariousness of it too, would you rather have Chris Sale or Jeffrey Springs? You know, our guy that we talk about. I would probably rather go with Jeffrey Springs. That's a tough one.

I got to do more sale research because I know Scott is on him. And obviously, I respect Scott. This is the latest that Chris Sale has gone in a really long time. So there could be something. But it's not about him not being good though. Right. It's about if you're coming back to your point where if wins are important and it's not everything, it doesn't have to be everything, do you think you can get two or three more

wins out of Jeffrey Springs and you do Cressail in Boston in a pretty tough division that's going to go up against Tampa of better Orioles team, your Yankees and the Blue Jays? I don't know, man. You know that. He might be a prime example of what Rob Silver's talking about. Yes. Potentially last one I wanted to mention For those watching us right now, you might see

I've got a little Roto Ware shirt on with the anime guy that says show yeah for Shoheyotani. I love the shirt by the way. Shout out to Roto Ware. I just wish that there's a way, I don't think that this will ever happen. But actually, it might happen already on ESPN.

We've got to find a way to get all of Shohay Otani's fantasy stats into one player and that you can get all of his stats. I know that it would break fantasy baseball and then if it's a snake draft, it's just like, all right, whoever gets the first overall pick has this huge advantage, and obviously that's not fair to everyone else,

but I just wish that there is a way that we can take his value in real life, because what he has done is broken baseball. We have never seen a player like this. He is a unicorn in every aspect, and be able to get both his hitting and pitching stats at the same time in your lineup as one player, regardless of format. Head to head points, roto,

I know it would break fantasy Welsh, but I just wish that there is a way that we can kind of copy his value from real-life baseball as a fantasy. Listen, I say let's start by making him one player because Yahoo still cannot do it, which is crazy. But some people like that, though. Some people like that there's two players.

There's two versions of all the time. Well, those people like to play till the last day of the season two. And they also like black licorish because that's stupid. I don't, like, I'm sorry. That's dumb.

It's the dumbest thing. One player is two different people. is horrifically dumb. So first off, it should be unanimous that he's one player. And I believe CBS, he's one player. Yeah, I think you guys have the choice. He's one player. So I do that.

So there's that. The reason I say that is because your fix is the easiest fix. The big claim to any of the sites that don't have him as one player or can't function of him moving around and blah, blah, blah, blah, oh, the coding and da-da-da-da-da. Guess what's the easiest coding on the planet is just to make both stats. live. That's not difficult to make both stats live. Because also, guess what? We don't have the damage of pitchers hitting in the NL anymore. That's not a, you could literally just make pitching stats live all across the board. It's probably the, and I'm not obviously coding, so you know,

who am I to say? But of all the things that exist around Shohei Otani, making him and his stats both universally work is the easiest element to implement. It's just bullheadedness in sites not wanting to do it because I think of what you're talking about. Potential backlash because he will be so unanimously number one in all formats and will be a cheat code that I think there's an unfairness. But guess what? He's a cheat code in real baseball. In real baseball, this counts.

They literally didn't chop him in half or clone him or make another person be him to do this. He gets to do it and guess what else? All his stats count in real baseball. it's not hard. I mean, I'm obviously passionate about it because I think the show Hilton thing has been

some of the biggest mess in fantasy through and through. I would also love it because I own him in the Scott White Dynasty League. That would be great if I did not have to choose and a points league I got him in both. You'd be the unanimousment number one. But you are so right about it.

It's so easy to do. And I think someone just pointed in, you can in, I believe it's fan tracks. You can put him in one. But I don't think that's what Frank is talking about in that like you can make it a little suggestion and you can do it.

It's like it would be great. if it was a unanimous decision across the board that we all accepted it because it should be. It totally should be, Frank. I couldn't agree more with you, obviously by me going on a tangent, even though this was your resolution. Yeah, look, I brought it up before and some people will say, oh, well, then you're, if your hitters come into pitch the ninth inning, you have to count those stats for your ERA and whip. And I'm like, that's not really the point of this. Although, I did see an interesting stat that more position players pitched last season. than ever before in the history of baseball,

which I have to look into that. I don't know why that's happening. It's just like, maybe it's because bullpins are smaller and, but I don't know, something like that, but that was very weird. But yeah, that's like the counterpoint is that, oh, well, then your hitters have to get pitcher stats too. It's like, all right, well, whatever.

Shout out to David Mendelsohn who was here last week, giving us ADP gifts, he's in the chat. He saw Tristan McKenzie was the cover, so he decided to jump by. Appreciate it. Mendie, thank you for last week, and thank you for hanging out. Let's take a break. Before we do that, just want to give you a thank you.

Thank you to everyone who has followed us all season long. No matter how you consume, podcast, audio, YouTube, whatever, your support is very, very much so appreciated. Here's the 2023 onwards and upwards to better things next year. And Scott White is back next week. I saw a few YouTube comments like, where's the Atlanta Braves guy? They just, you don't know Scott White's name.

You listen. Go not know the name? I see that now. I can tell you. I probably, I don't know if I watch the live chat more than anybody during these shows. I watch the live chat that goes on and the amount of people that'll be like, what's that guy? And I'm like, that's Chris Towers.

The guy's been here for like 10 years. Scott White has been here before I was even in the industry. Like, how do you guys not know his name? Yeah. So that guy, the Atlanta Braves guy, he's going to be back next week. And we're moving on to three pods per week. So we're upping the frequency every month. February will be four pods per week.

March, obviously we'll be doing daily podcast every day until the end of the season. So fun times there. But yes, that is what's going on next week. And moving forward. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Speaking of looking at the YouTube chat, by the way, I did see a question asking how many days until spring training?

If you ever wonder, just go to baseball savant.com. They have it right on the top. 58 days until spring training and counting. Let's get to some news and notes. Gene Sigura to the Miami Marlins on a two-year $17 million deal. Who said the Marlins don't spend money, right? Gene Sigurah will turn 33 years old in March. He's still getting a day.

done, man. He is a useful fantasy baseball player. He hit 277 with 10 homers and 13 steals last year in only 98 games. That is a 15 homer, 19 steel pace over 150 games. Still makes a ton of contact. He hits for batting average. Sprint speed isn't so great, but he finds a way, finds a way to steal bases. I don't know how aggressive the new manager, Skip Schumacher, is going to be for the Miami Marlins in terms of steals, but he has the personnel to do it. Gene Segarra. Jazz Chisholm, John Birdie. I think they're going to be pretty active on the bass pads. Last point here,

Ross the resource has him playing third base. I saw some people in the chat talking about how Gene Seguera, there's rumors that he's going to play third base. So obviously that helps for fantasy baseball purposes. Well, your thoughts, Gene Seguer to the Marlins. Yeah, I think it's all sound like you said right there. Third base, we were kind of going off about, you know, in some alternate universe, Carlos Crea has already signed

and is already playing third base, and we can get excited about that. And this is another one of the, those just cheaper options that you can throw. And I love the idea that you can throw him in as a corner infielder. That's going to be the really nice thing that you're going to be able to do with him. Because you can get double digit stolen bases. You're going to get some solid runs. I think the early steamer projections have got him in the 60 run territory.

That's only in 120 games with double digit homers and stolen bases and a good batting average. If they're aggressive, it looks like he's hitting kind of in the middle of the order, more like a five, six spot. So maybe it's going to be a few more RBI. and let him run. I think it's just a solid landing spot. And I like the third base eligibility. That's what I'm going to be stoked about.

Yeah, I will say he is due for at least one ILCN per year, 98 games this past season, 131 and 2021, 144, 144, 125. So you get it. Gene Cigura is going to miss some time at some point. But, you know, maybe leading off, batting seconds, score some runs, double digit homers, double digit steals. I do like Gene Cigura as a corner or middle infielder in Roto League. Corey Klober signed with the Red Sox on a one year $10 million deal.

He will turn 37 in April. He had stretches last year where he was solid, definitely someone that you could stream at times. 4.34 ERA, 1-21 whip over 164 innings pitched. Swinging strike rates sell solid for Corey Klob. Welsh, any interest here? Cluber to the Red Sox. It would be pretty minimal, if I'm being honest.

The swinging strike percentage is still kind of there, but the K-per-9 took a huge dip. It was career low at, 7.63. The walks were nice. The, like you said, I think you said, if the ex-fip was a little bit better than the ERA, but just kind of going back to what we're talking about, I just don't think the Red Sox are going to be hyper, hyper competitive.

And Corey Klobber can't really stay healthy. He put up 200 innings last in 2018. So it's been quite a bit. He did have 160 this past year. So I think he's a streamer. I think I would be looking at him as a streamable options throughout the year in good matchups, but not someone I'm trying to actively rock.

Look at this pitching staff. According to Rosser resource, Chris Sale, Corey Klover, Nick Pavetta, James Paxton. James Paxton? Garrett Whitlock and now this moves Tanner Haute to the bullpen. I don't know if James Pax is going to be there or how long he's going to be there for. I think Hawke is all right. I think he's going to be all right. I think I saw somebody post this like, I'm not sure to steal it from them, but it's like man, this rotation would have been killer in 2017. You know what I'm saying? Like James Paxton, Corey Clover, Chris Sale. This is it. That's so true. That's hilarious. Look, as a Yankee fan, I'll just... You gotta be happy. I'll be my Red Sox hate herself. Heim Bloom is like one of the best things that happen to the Red Sox in a long, long time.

At least from my perspective. Junjin Ryu said on Wednesday that he's targeting July for his return from Tommy John's surgery. So maybe someone in the back half of the season we're looking to add and stream at that point. Again, that is Hyunjin Ryu. Let's wrap up with some prospect talk here, Welshie. the P180P mocks.

Again, these come from the Welsh's Prospect One podcast. He puts on these mock drafts every couple of months. They are prospect only. They are 12 team leagues. There's a collection of them. They include industry folk, listeners, a bunch of different people all around. And it's basically a form and opinion

and get an idea of how certain prospects are being valued around the industry. And I think that it is a great tool overall just to track that feel and that value for all different types of prospects. Well, anything else you'd like to add or did that encapsulate it well? No, I mean, it pretty much does. I mean, at the end of the day, the goal is to create an ADP because it doesn't exist an ADP.

There's my ranks. There's James Anderson ranks. There's Eric Cros. Whoever, Scott White, there's ranks. There's just a singular rank. And this is something that also at the same time, I might do a mock or Scott might do a mock. But what happens in that mock is singular. And you might be, oh, look, this guy went five.

That doesn't mean that's a consensus. There's real no consensus. but there also just no ADP. I just think it's a good point of value. So it's something I've been doing for a couple years. I do them like you said every three or four months. And I did five drafts and it creates an ADP. So whatever Frank did, I think Frank you and I were in the same lead together.

Whatever we did in our league doesn't mean that's the be all end all. And it just balances out all the value. So if you're interested in what prospect minds and all and industry people would do in drafts and how it averages out, I think it's a really fun, cool tool, even just to stare at. If you're looking about values, I think some people view it as a great draft tool. And I think as a season goes on, a lot of people look at it as a really good marker for the market value of players and what the hive mind kind of views a player, whether you or I or whoever values a certain guy in a certain space. So you can check that out over at In Thisleak.com if you want. And yeah, most recent ones there will probably do one right before the season starts as well.

All right. Well, let's talk about some of the biggest risers and fallers from the August drafts. So again, these drafts that we just did here in December. So four-month difference, see which prospects are on the rise most. And these are all prospects now ranked inside of the top 100 in terms of this ADP. The top five biggest risers, Connor Norby from the Baltimore Orioles, Matt Mervis from the Cubs, Andy Rodriguez with the Pirates, Logan O'Hoppy with the Angels, and Edward Julian of the Minnesota Twins.

I highly encourage everyone to go back if you haven't already. Listen to all the positional prospect podcast that we did all all season long. we broke them down from a dynasty perspective from a redraft. We talked about a lot of these names already. But Welsh, is there maybe one out of this group of five that you would be looking to buy high the most on from that group? Ooh, that's a great question because I like all of them their own respect. Like Connor Norby is fascinating.

Connor Norby, I just want to point out is probably the guy across this list that I was probably the most not in on that I don't think I had quite given the respect to of jumping up is he had a 29 homer, 16 stolen bases this past year, already at AAA and is going to get some time soon. Matt Mervis, I think, is the most obvious one that everybody knows about and is going to get the most time. And I've seen a lot of these guys, I got to tell you, it's not going to be super sexy and it's a little biased to the most recent AFL. But like, if I'm looking at all these guys, a lot of these guys are costing big prices. I mean, you said, there's a specific reason behind what you just said. These guys all had the highest jumps.

Matt Mervis inside the top 50. Indy Rodriguez is inside the top 50. Connor Norby does. I like Logan O'Hoppy. Catchers are not necessarily my thing. So it's Edward Julian that really gets me going here because he's also still at a cheaper cost. He jumped up so much because he wasn't someone

that really anybody was in on this past year. And he just moved up enough that I don't think he remotely has the cost. And I'm not saying that it's not worth taking any of those guys because Connor Norby, if he repeats what he did in AAA at the majors, you're looking at a insanely valuable prospect. If Matt Mervis can do what he did. I mean, Matt Mervis technically hit, if you count like AFL, I believe over 40 homers in 2022 between all of his stints and the AFL

with a ton of doubles. I mean, moving technically four levels, there's no joke about that. But Edward Julian to me, I think, is the most slept on of all of these guys. Industry people are talking heavy, heavy on Indy Rodriguez. And Edward Julian, I've said it a bunch of times we talked about on those positional episodes. I think this is a 10-year vet. And maybe it's going to be in the infield.

Maybe it'll be in the outfield. He can steal. He can hit. He's got a great plate presence where he can walk. He's going to be a higher OVP guy. I really think he's a quintessential number two hitter and even could be messed around with hitting in the lead-off spot if you want an on-base guy. So I like all these guys. They're all warranted and they're all in the top five biggest risers for a very specific reason.

but Edward is kind of one of those that I'm really going to be paying attention to once he gets his spot. I highly recommend anyone who plays in a head-to-head points dynasty league or an OBP-type dynasty league, go and make sure Edward Julian is not available in your league. Because I picked him up late in the season in the Scott White Dynasty League. That's a 24 team head-to-head points league. I'm holding for now. Everything the Welsh has said, bat to ball, makes contact, doesn't strike out, ridiculous on base skills. It's to the point where we were at the AFL home run derby.

and Edward Julian was in it, and we were sarcastically cheering every time he would swing the bat. That's how selective Edward Julian is. It's really crazy, his plate discipline, so keep that of mind. You play in OVP or headset points. Make sure, just check.

Make sure he's not available in your league. Next group of five biggest risers. Tanner Bibby, a starting pitcher with the Guardians. Jackson Merrill shortstop with the Padres. Brendan Fat, a starting pitcher with the Diamondbacks. Will Brennan, an outfielder with the Guardians, and Emmanuel Rodriguez in Outfield. there with the twins, I'm going to be fully transparent here, Welsh. I am not the prospect guy.

I'm getting more into it, obviously, and I like doing it. I like learning. I don't know who Emmanuel Rodriguez is. And would you like to break him down? Because I don't know anything about him. Yeah, that's funny. I saw your note on there and I was laughing about that. So one of the reasons you don't know a ton about Emmanuel Rodriguez is because his playing time, I'm trying to pull up his player page here, his playing time was cut short this past year. And he missed a whole bunch of I've got him right around a top 50 overall prospect with the Minnesota twins, another twins prospect. And he ended up only having 136 at bats. But in that time, in 136 at bats, he had nine homers, 11 stolen bases while hitting 272.

And check this out, a 492 OBP because he walked more than he struck out at a ball this past year. And he was 19 years old. So again, repeat that, 57 walks to 52 strikeouts, a 492 OBP over. 200 point difference between his batting average and his OBP, which is absurd. He also had some of the hardest, hardest, hard hit metrics, hard hit strength, according to the batted ball data over at RotoWire in his time there. And then the season got cut short. So this is a far, far, fast, high moving prospect that doesn't have the name value unless you're

a prospect head. So this is another one of those guys where in a lot of leagues, no one might give it really much thought because he missed so much time. He hasn't been above A ball. I think that'll be a big focus for a lot of people. They're like, well, this is a guy that only got to A ball. Listen, I think he could have pushed AA had he played the entire year and he kept succeeding. And then he would start this year at AA and then you're not that far out.

The miss time hurt. I think he'll probably start at high A this year, move up to AA, probably playing the AFL. And he might be a 2024 option sooner rather than later, even at 21 years old. So he's not a name, especially compared to this list, though. What I think is funny is this list of five of the next five highest risers, you would probably agree that the common prospect person is going to go like,

who, who, who? Like, there's not a lot of name brand players, though you and I and Scott talked a lot about brand. By the way, I was told it was Brandon Fought, not Fatt, Brandon Fought. So Brandon Fott is on that list. Like we all kind of know him now in Jackson Meryl, but this isn't a big who's whose name. And obviously Manuel Rodriguez is not up on everybody's,

but he should, but he should. All right, well, let's quickly talk about the fallers here, Welsh, and I am going to be a test. This is going to be your biggest test of the year. Are you ready? Okay. We're talking rapid fire. I know this is not easy for you, Welsh,

but 10 to 20 seconds on each of these names on why you think they fell. It could be anything. Strikeout rate, whatever, public perception, batting average issues, whatever. and we'll start with Alex Ramirez, an outfielder for the New York Mets. Go. I think it's just believability.

I don't think people believe enough in it and there's strikeout problems with him. So I think it's more of a public perception and he jumped up a little too high and I think it's the strikeouts that have people worried. All right. Robert Hassel, an outfielder with the Washington Nationals.

Yeah, it's everything, everything into that. He massively struggled moving from the Padres to the Nationals. His power numbers didn't come up and his batting average dip, but that move to the nationals really, really killed him. and he was valued so high he had to come down. Max Meyer,

I guess this one's obvious, right? Tommy John surgery. Injury. Yeah, yeah, this is injury. Jack Leiter spoke about him recently as well. Just results. It just, it is simply,

if you've watched him pitch, the command is a little bit of a problem, but his stuff is incredible. It is simply the results on the stat sheet of a 5ERA. Next up, we have Brady House, a shortstop, I guess maybe third base prospect with the Washington Nationals. I think it's power numbers.

Overall, like I really, really like him. And I think this is going to be a big test for him this year. But at the end of the day, he didn't put up the numbers that anybody wanted in low levels. He only hit 278, but three homers in just under 200 abats, I think is what moved him down because they were high expectations. Next up, we have Nick York, a second base prospect with the Red Sox, who, frankly, when I saw him in the AFL, he didn't look too bad. But obviously, that's a small sample size. Yeah, there's just stats. This is two very different Nick Yorks from the season.

York to the AFL, Nick York. There's still big questions about the bat, but this is like a hardcore doubles guy. So that is just stats. All right. Well, it's your guy, Davidson de Los Santos, a third basement for the Arizona Diamondbacks. It is not stats from what he did in the miners because if you look at what he did in the minors, he's absurd. By the way, he was like top 10 and hits in the entire minor leagues as a teenager. So it's not that. It's the AFL. It is a hundred percent AFL in the swing and miss and the contact stuff that he put in front of all the prospect people because this draft happened in December had this draft happened pre-AFL, I guarantee you. He is not a faller.

Guarantee it. Dustin Harris and outfielder with the Texas Rangers, I kind of like Dustin Harris. I do too. I like this is prospect fatigue. James Anderson is very, very high, had been very high on him. He might have cooled. I don't want to speak for him, but I think he might have cooled just a tiny bit in ranks. I think it's a prospect fatigue that he hasn't done anything.

go to the AFL. He didn't end the season super strong. No crazy, crazy maturation or anything like that. I think it's prospect fatigue. Edwin Arroyo, a shortstop with the Reds who came over in the, I want to say, Tyler Malley trade or Luis Castillo trade? Luis Castillo trade with Nuelvi. You got me. You got me on this one. I think there's a little bit of questions about him hitting with the Reds, but I don't really see a downtick. I literally think this one is the not being a mariner effect. I really truly do. It doesn't make sense why he fell. All right. And the last two here, we have two outfielders, George Valera with the Guardians and Kevin O'Constra with the Cubs.

Kevin O'Conra actually doesn't make a ton of sense. I think it might be a little bit of prospect fatigue. Also, the Cubs aren't hitting with a lot of prospects. There's actually a lot of misses that are happening. Reggie Preciado, Owen Casey, kind of guys that came up, falling back down. So I think he's getting lumped in. Valera is very close. I have been probably one of the biggest pushers of him for the last three years. And I think it's the contact rate things that have people in question. He will be a major leaguer. I still think he can be an all-star,

but people are very concerned that he really hasn't improved his batting average to a high level, and he's stealing bases a little bit less. Well done. Job well done by the Welsh. You get it. And your gift, your prize, is that you get to give me one or two names that you are most likely to buy in Dynasty right now based on this slide in your P1ADP Pmox.

Oh, okay. So of the guys that fell? Yeah. So of all these fallers that we just talked about, which one or two, are you most likely to buy right now in Dynasty? I'm definitely going to buy Edwin Arroyo because I don't get it. I really truly don't understand. People were sky high about him and I think very little stuff in the move to Cincinnati.

And I always would point out, like, think about what it is for these guys and having these, like, altering trades. Same thing with Robert Hassel in there. He might be the other one. There's a couple guys in here. I think Jack Leiter's value is as low as it's ever going to be. I would buy on him. I think Davison is in that.

I'm obviously going to buy George Valera at a little. low, but specifically looking at Hassel and Edwin Arroyo, I think they are some of the best cost right now. Arroyo might even come at it outside the top 100, and Hassel's going to come maybe like a top 75 prospect range. So I would buy on both those guys right now. All right. Last thing I wanted to do, a little quick exercise here for those who play in Dynasty Leagues. I wanted to see where did first year player draft prospects go in this overall ADP and just let everyone know, give them an idea of where they're going early on. Drew, Jones, who we know was selected by the Diamondbacks.

He went ninth overall in terms of ADP here. Jackson Holiday, shortstop with the Orioles. He went 16th overall. Tirmar Johnson, second baseman with the Pirates. 27th overall. Elijah Green and outfielder with the Nationals. He went 32nd overall. Codai Senga, starting pitcher with the Mets.

48th overall. Zach Netto. Now we're getting to the point where I can't name the team or the positions anymore. But Angels. He went 58th overall. Brooks Lee. Twins. went 65th overall.

Cam Collier, I believe Reds. Reds went 69th overall. Masataka Yoshida, outfielder for the Red Sox. He went 89th overall. And then Gavin Cross. Royals. Royals went 95th overall. And a gentleman named Chase DeLauder.

With the Guardians. Guardians went 99th overall. So those were the first year player draft prospects who were selected inside of the top 100 in terms of this ADP. And do you think that list, this list of first year player draft prospects, was influenced by maybe your analysis and the fact that this comes from, you know,

you're the one who puts it together, people listen to your podcast. Do you kind of see that correlate? Yeah. And that's something that it's why I think it's so important when I do these with listeners. It's one thing if I do it with industry, when I do it with listeners to have a lot of drafts to pull from. Because I will influence. I, I've 100% agree. I've always influenced George Valera.

I personally, I took Tamar and Elijah Green in this. And I took them very high. I think I was the highest to take Tarmar. So I affected not only influence, but I affected some of these guys. But yeah, this is very close to mine. I am bigger on Cam Collier than most. I have Netto over Brooks Lee. And there's a couple names that are missing from this list that probably are what are bringing it out here.

You know, like, yeah, I think Jacob Berry isn't on here. There's no pitchers. Yeah, I completely agree that I'm influencing it. Welsh mentioned that we were in the same draft together. And he had the first overall pick. Surprise. surprise. Corbyn Carroll was the first pick there. And then yeah, at the two-three turn, you went to Marr Johnson and Elijah Green. I was in that same draft. I had fourth pick. I took Jordan Lawler.

And then I also doubled down with Jackson Holliday and Nuelvee-Martee. So a bunch of shortstops. And I tweeted out my team and a bunch of people said they loved it and stuff. So I don't know. I don't know if that means it's good or not. But you did pretty good. Jackson Holley and Jordan Lawler, it's a pretty good start to a minor league draft. Yeah, that's pretty awesome. Anyway, we're going to wrap there. The year is over. The Welsh is here. We're having to He's here. He's going to be here in 2023 as well. And we're happy to do it. So a happy new year to everyone. Make sure to stay safe out there for the Welsh. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching all year long. We'll be back again next week. Bye bye. Happy New Year.